If the Greens really are set to beat the LibDems in today's Euro elections, then as well as taking votes off the Yellows directly, surely their only other meaningful source of support is from former Labour voters. If such a resurgence were to be seen over the coming months in terms of Westminster voting intentions, this could provide Miliband & Co. with a real headache.
In the 1989 Euros the Greens polled 14.5% of the votes the LD's (Actually SLD's) polled just polled just 6.2%.. Both UKIP and the greens do well in Euros because of clear identity.However in the year ahead expect their national vote share to fade to gradually fade as the more complex issue of a General election looms.Would give UKIP maximum share of 12% for the GE and the greens 5%.
! er Sorry correction UKIP share should have read 12%!
Voted this morning. The school where the polling station is, is being rebuilt, meaning voters had to make a detour round the back of the new building, then negotiate a maze of fencing to reach the original school entrance. I expect a lower than normal turnout. ;-)
I'm assuming Labour... though I may be wrong - the question is for Labour can they get their voters out for this one and keep them on the straight and narrow away from kipper/green temptations !
If the Greens really are set to beat the LibDems in today's Euro elections, then as well as taking votes off the Yellows directly, surely their only other meaningful source of support is from former Labour voters. If such a resurgence were to be seen over the coming months in terms of Westminster voting intentions, this could provide Miliband & Co. with a real headache.
In the 1989 Euros the Greens polled 14.5% of the votes the LD's (Actually SLD's) polled just polled just 6.2%.. Both UKIP and the greens do well in Euros because of clear identity.However in the year ahead expect their national vote share to fade vote shares to gradually fade as the more complex issue of a General election looms. would give UKIP maximum share of 2% for the GE and the greens 5%.
Didn't listen to P2 but sounds like it was dry for six minutes and wet the rest of the time, so I'd spend as much time considering the P2 times as I would considering voting for Ed Balls.
@ecs100: The crude 'expected value' of your probabilities adds up to 2.13. If you're even vaguely in the right ballpark, Shadsy's 4/1 on 2 LibDem seats is a snip (I'm already on, for a modest stake).
4-1 looks like a nice price. 1 South East Seat definitely, 1 London seat probably.
I reckon the NW will be tough (See Sale & Wythenshawe result...) SW 50-50 sounds about right...
£5 added to the basket of Euro bets anyway
you should have got on at 5/6 for 2 or more LD seats which was available a couple of weeks ago
Well that is polling two-thirds the way through. If I was a polling clerk today I would probably be wanting to slit my wrists by now unless I could something meaningful in between the handful of voters who bother to turn out.
If you're right then Ladbrokes' odds of 5/6 on the GB turnout being less than 39% (compared with 34+% last time) looks like cracking value.
RochdalePioneers asks ...... Why would Labour endorse LibDems who have more loyally voted through Tory bills than Tory MPs? Practically speaking a LibDem MP is a Tory MP.
Answer Parliamentary Bills are Coalition Government Bills not Tory Bills. Lib Dems are being loyal to the coalition and loyal to sorting out their country's economic mess.
This is Scotland, we have different priorities than you Saxons.
Hate to break it to you:
The Scottish people (Scottish Gaelic: Albannaich), or Scots, are a nation and ethnic group native to Scotland. Historically they emerged from an amalgamation of the Picts and Gaels, incorporating neighbouring Britons to the south as well as Germanic peoples such as the Anglo-Saxons and the Norse. Later the Normans also had some influence.
Be very interested if anyone who has voted Kipper today is prepared to say now that they would definitely be voting for another party this time next year.....
If what I read from farage is correct in some constituencies there may not be a kipper to vote for.
Just a tory or labour guy who is 'Nigel Farage endorsed' (perhaps he or she will carry a pound sign as a kind of kitemark).
Of course, if you can't cut a deal with Nige as the sitting MP, he'll run his own candidate and send in the blue rinse harpies.
I've not heard of these 'Farage endorsed' candidates before.
The potential new One Party States are all Labour-controlled councils owing to the electoral cycle favouring Labour in 2014. These 16 councils will join 99 already existing One Party States, 63 of which are Conservative, 3 of which are Liberal Democrat and 33 of which are Labour. That means another 3.2 million people will join the existing 16.2 million living under One Party States. - See more at: http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/press-releases/#sthash.fNsn70fX.dpuf
This is Scotland, we have different priorities than you Saxons.
Hate to break it to you:
The Scottish people (Scottish Gaelic: Albannaich), or Scots, are a nation and ethnic group native to Scotland. Historically they emerged from an amalgamation of the Picts and Gaels, incorporating neighbouring Britons to the south as well as Germanic peoples such as the Anglo-Saxons and the Norse. Later the Normans also had some influence.
If I was ever to get on Who Do You Think You Are we could discuss this further.
I would never vote for a joint Conservative/UKIP candidate or government. I'd prefer to be on the right of the Liberal Democrats that sit in the Tories feeling more and more uncomfortable. If ever there are "Farage-endorsed" candidates, I would have to think very carefully.
I'd agree, provided my local LibDem was an Orange Booker
Charles I think you would find almost all one-nation traditional Tories would find sharing ideology with Orange Booker LibDems far easier than Kippers. I like Clegg, Alexander, Laws, Browne, Brake, the Noble Viscount and co. I just wish they wore a blue rosette and not a yellow one. A great many Tories are very right wing when it comes to the economy and law and order but almost social democratic when it comes to health, education and looking after the genuinely poor and disadvantaged in society.
Probably Pictish on my fathers side Celtic on my mothers. But genealogy is difficult in Scotland unless you are nobility.
My point was merely that the English aren't particularly more Saxon than the Scots. Both groups are genetically mainly the pre-Celtic population neolithic population, with a predominantly Germanic culture and language, albeit with some legacy of Celtic culture in more rural parts.
Don't mock the Picts, They were smart enough to trace succession through the maternal line. On the very good grounds that you could be almost certain who the mother was, fathers could be more problematic
I would never vote for a joint Conservative/UKIP candidate or government. I'd prefer to be on the right of the Liberal Democrats that sit in the Tories feeling more and more uncomfortable. If ever there are "Farage-endorsed" candidates, I would have to think very carefully.
I'd agree, provided my local LibDem was an Orange Booker
Charles I think you would find almost all one-nation traditional Tories would find sharing ideology with Orange Booker LibDems far easier than Kippers. I like Clegg, Alexander, Laws, Browne, Brake, the Noble Viscount and co. I just wish they wore a blue rosette and not a yellow one. A great many Tories are very right wing when it comes to the economy and law and order but almost social democratic when it comes to health, education and looking after the genuinely poor and disadvantaged in society.
I blame Hartington!
Perhaps we should revisit the name agreed in 1912: instead of Conservative and Unionist Party, maybe Conservative and Liberal Unionist Party would be clearer?
EDIT: Oscar's thoughts on the topic:
LADY BRACKNELL : [Sternly]... What are your politics?
JACK: Well, I am afraid I really have none. I am a Liberal Unionist.
LADY BRACKNELL: Oh, they count as Tories. They dine with us.
@Socrates Every society has some intermingling of blood, but given where my fathers ancestors came from, this would have been somewhat limited until the ending of the clan system.
I would never vote for a joint Conservative/UKIP candidate or government. I'd prefer to be on the right of the Liberal Democrats that sit in the Tories feeling more and more uncomfortable. If ever there are "Farage-endorsed" candidates, I would have to think very carefully.
I'd agree, provided my local LibDem was an Orange Booker
Charles I think you would find almost all one-nation traditional Tories would find sharing ideology with Orange Booker LibDems far easier than Kippers. I like Clegg, Alexander, Laws, Browne, Brake, the Noble Viscount and co. I just wish they wore a blue rosette and not a yellow one. A great many Tories are very right wing when it comes to the economy and law and order but almost social democratic when it comes to health, education and looking after the genuinely poor and disadvantaged in society.
It's certainly very difficult to see any real difference in philosophy between say, Ken Clarke and Nick Clegg.
We've got torrential rain and thunder here in Lincoln now. I've just been out to vote as I don't think it's going to get any better later on.
I had a change of mind during the day. I had intended to vote Green in the Euros and Conservative in the locals but, after a bit of pencil hovering, the Conservatives got both of my votes - despite the fact that I've had a Green flyer in my front window for over a week! It was Theresa May's speech yesterday that swung my vote.
Not very busy in the polling station. One person ahead of me and another coming in as I was leaving. The lady ahead of me was very surprised to be given 2 ballot papers. She'd come just knowing about the local elections. The fact that Euro elections were happening too was news to her.
"Asked what his hopes are for his first trip to the sub-continent, Jones replied ‘Having stayed at the Trump Taj Mahal Hotel and Casino at Atlantic City New Jersey I think I have a pretty good understanding of India"
We've got torrential rain and thunder here in Lincoln now. I've just been out to vote as I don't think it's going to get any better later on.
I had a change of mind during the day. I had intended to vote Green in the Euros and Conservative in the locals but, after a bit of pencil hovering, the Conservatives got both of my votes - despite the fact that I've had a Green flyer in my front window for over a week! It was Theresa May's speech yesterday that swung my vote.
Not very busy in the polling station. One person ahead of me and another coming in as I was leaving. The lady ahead of me was very surprised to be given 2 ballot papers. She'd come just knowing about the local elections. The fact that Euro elections were happening too was news to her.
If the Greens really are set to beat the LibDems in today's Euro elections, then as well as taking votes off the Yellows directly, surely their only other meaningful source of support is from former Labour voters. If such a resurgence were to be seen over the coming months in terms of Westminster voting intentions, this could provide Miliband & Co. with a real headache.
In the 1989 Euros the Greens polled 14.5% of the votes the LD's (Actually SLD's) polled just polled just 6.2%.. Both UKIP and the greens do well in Euros because of clear identity.However in the year ahead expect their national vote share to fade vote shares to gradually fade as the more complex issue of a General election looms. would give UKIP maximum share of 2% for the GE and the greens 5%.
I had a change of mind during the day. I had intended to vote Green in the Euros and Conservative in the locals but, after a bit of pencil hovering, the Conservatives got both of my votes - despite the fact that I've had a Green flyer in my front window for over a week! It was Theresa May's speech yesterday that swung my vote.
Steven A strange combination of voting Green and Conservative. Did you realise that the Green Party policies are pro nationalisation and anti business?
I would never vote for a joint Conservative/UKIP candidate or government. I'd prefer to be on the right of the Liberal Democrats that sit in the Tories feeling more and more uncomfortable. If ever there are "Farage-endorsed" candidates, I would have to think very carefully.
I'd agree, provided my local LibDem was an Orange Booker
Charles I think you would find almost all one-nation traditional Tories would find sharing ideology with Orange Booker LibDems far easier than Kippers. I like Clegg, Alexander, Laws, Browne, Brake, the Noble Viscount and co. I just wish they wore a blue rosette and not a yellow one. A great many Tories are very right wing when it comes to the economy and law and order but almost social democratic when it comes to health, education and looking after the genuinely poor and disadvantaged in society.
I blame Hartington!
Perhaps we should revisit the name agreed in 1912: instead of Conservative and Unionist Party, maybe Conservative and Liberal Unionist Party would be clearer?
EDIT: Oscar's thoughts on the topic:
LADY BRACKNELL : [Sternly]... What are your politics?
JACK: Well, I am afraid I really have none. I am a Liberal Unionist.
LADY BRACKNELL: Oh, they count as Tories. They dine with us.
Yes, he (although Joe Chamberlain was the greatest driving force) should have allowed Ireland to go independent and remained part of the Liberal party!
Mrs Stodge and I will be out to vote after dinner as one should.
Labout won all 60 seats in 2010 polling 66% of the vote Borough-wide with the Conservatives back on 18% and the Christian People's Alliance on 7.5% followed by Respect and the Liberal Democrats.
Apart from when Respect polled 26% in 2006, Labour have dominated in recent times winning 59 out of 60 seats in 2002, all 60 seats in 1998 and 54 out of 60 in 2006.
It's hard to see anything other than a huge Labour win - I do think the Conservatives have a chance in Royal Docks as do the CPA in Canning Town ut not much more than that and despite all the electioneering, the fact remains Labour won my Ward with nearly 70% of the vote last time. To imagine that being wiped out takes more imagination than I have.
The Tories have tried hard though I question why their activists aren't working more likely areas in neighbouring Boroughs (I expect the Conservatives to do very well in Tower Hamlets which is one to watch tonight or tomorrow). UKIP have no presence here at all though they are standing a handful of candidates.
I had a change of mind during the day. I had intended to vote Green in the Euros and Conservative in the locals but, after a bit of pencil hovering, the Conservatives got both of my votes - despite the fact that I've had a Green flyer in my front window for over a week! It was Theresa May's speech yesterday that swung my vote.
Steven A strange combination of voting Green and Conservative. Did you realise that the Green Party policies are pro nationalisation and anti business?
I rather wonder that too. The Greens are excellent at really identifying the long term issues. Their solutions though are awful. From a purely issues based view I'd vote Green, but having seen what they propose I'd much prefer Monster Raving Loony. I did though settle on a compromise and vote Tory.
I think Labour will squeak home here (Euros) in terms of seats and votes. They have a blanket coverage which UKIP lack. I have a few hundred of the Omnium funds resting on that assumption. (I would however say that my history of opposing short price favourites in political betting is abysmal, with oddly the exception of Ed Balls)
The council elections are perhaps much more important. My suspicion is that Labour won't really achieve.
From all this though (again my guess) the LDs will have a problem. I wouldn't worry if I was in their shoes as I think that the last few years have cemented their place, but then I'm not a LD.
All of our wonderful plodding to the poll station seems quite a contrast to the Thai situation. I'm not sure if I should be pleased or worried that the concept of a coup by UK Forces is beyond belief.
I would never vote for a joint Conservative/UKIP candidate or government. I'd prefer to be on the right of the Liberal Democrats that sit in the Tories feeling more and more uncomfortable. If ever there are "Farage-endorsed" candidates, I would have to think very carefully.
I'd agree, provided my local LibDem was an Orange Booker
Charles I think you would find almost all one-nation traditional Tories would find sharing ideology with Orange Booker LibDems far easier than Kippers. I like Clegg, Alexander, Laws, Browne, Brake, the Noble Viscount and co. I just wish they wore a blue rosette and not a yellow one. A great many Tories are very right wing when it comes to the economy and law and order but almost social democratic when it comes to health, education and looking after the genuinely poor and disadvantaged in society.
I blame Hartington!
Perhaps we should revisit the name agreed in 1912: instead of Conservative and Unionist Party, maybe Conservative and Liberal Unionist Party would be clearer?
EDIT: Oscar's thoughts on the topic:
LADY BRACKNELL : [Sternly]... What are your politics?
JACK: Well, I am afraid I really have none. I am a Liberal Unionist.
LADY BRACKNELL: Oh, they count as Tories. They dine with us.
Yes, he (although Joe Chamberlain was the greatest driving force) should have allowed Ireland to go independent and remained part of the Liberal party!
Joe was late to the party. He just wanted to throw his weight around. Hartington brought Devonshire, Sutherland, the remaining Whigs and the lots of money across with him.
You could make the argument that Chamberlain's strain developed into Thatcher's radicals, while Hartington's team because the One Nation Tories.
RochdalePioneers asks ...... Why would Labour endorse LibDems who have more loyally voted through Tory bills than Tory MPs? Practically speaking a LibDem MP is a Tory MP.
Answer Parliamentary Bills are Coalition Government Bills not Tory Bills. Lib Dems are being loyal to the coalition and loyal to sorting out their country's economic mess.
Such sophistry has a clear impact making LibDem voters understand why they consistently vote against thir stated policies and principles. As witnessed by the significant chunk of yellow pox councillors obliterated in every local elections round since Clegg got into bed with Cameron.
How many hundred LibPox councillors will go tonight, and will your answer to me above provide them any comfort?
Shalford Division on Surrey CC gives an example of how Conservatives would split when offered a choice between Lib Dem and UKIP. It was a safe seat in 2009, but the Conservatives messed up their nomination in 2013, and couldn't stand. The Lib Dems pushed up their Vote share by 14%, and UKIP pushed up theirs by 36%.
I think Farage has a real problem brewing. This election has shown that he has artfully won votes across the economic and political spectrum. As soon as he starts alliances with one of the establishment parties he does two things. Firstly he ceases to be the anti-politics anti-establishment party, second he ceases to be a safe harbour for a chunk of his vote.
I know he has mentioned working with other parties to achieve his end. But remember that his end is to establish a major political party AND get out of Europe, not just the latter. So tactically his suggestion entices wavering Tories but strategically I'd be surprised if it came into being.
I agree - he'd be mad to start doing deals with other parties (or candidates). Doesn't mean he won't.
I also agree with that DH. There is a strong enough UKIP base of new members to nix that strategy.
Voted this morning,very quiet,but the polling station is in a very quiet village Bolton-le-sands,my Father in law,who cannot walk more than about 50 yards(normally) also voted,but had to stop at the village pub on the way back to recover. I think he was bored,strangely his legs are worse after a rest in the pub. Overheard a Woman advising her daughter who to vote for,the in/out referendum was the topic. Mrs Jayfdee did not know what was happening,and could not care less,and will not vote,which is perhaps just as well,as her vote may well cancel out mine. The voting paper was not folded in any way,contrary to some reports.
I have just voted on a gloriously sunny Gibraltar evening. Probably the only place where people are actually voting almost exclusively on european issues!
Now down on the boat with PB on the laptop, cricket on the wireless and a glass of wine close by.
Very low turnout in sticksville, Bucks, I'm afraid to report - well judging by my searching for names crossed out when mine was just now - we've just the Euros to vote on - I fear the blue heartland may not be piling in behind my team as there's the cricket on.
Voted this morning,very quiet,but the polling station is in a very quiet village Bolton-le-sands,my Father in law,who cannot walk more than about 50 yards(normally) also voted,but had to stop at the village pub on the way back to recover. I think he was bored,strangely his legs are worse after a rest in the pub. Overheard a Woman advising her daughter who to vote for,the in/out referendum was the topic. Mrs Jayfdee did not know what was happening,and could not care less,and will not vote,which is perhaps just as well,as her vote may well cancel out mine. The voting paper was not folded in any way,contrary to some reports.
Steven A strange combination of voting Green and Conservative. Did you realise that the Green Party policies are pro nationalisation and anti business?
Yes, of course. I've voted a Conservative/Green combination before. I'm a Conservative/LibDem/Green floating voter. Or a rather green, very liberal Conservative - if you prefer. I don't see it as a particularly strange combination myself.
Been round the office in Aberdeen today reminding people to vote. Almost all of them will vote for parties other than that I support but that doesn't matter. Told them even if they go to spoil their ballot they should take the few minutes needed to make their voice heard.
Are the folding points on ballot papers pre-determined or just done by the people in that polling station?
My ballot this morning was folded in to 3 main sections, but then had a very small final fold which resulted in UKIP and only UKIP being covered after you'd unfolded the main sections.
At the time I assumed this was electoral commission nonsense, but do I need to phone in a complaint about my polling station?
Shalford Division on Surrey CC gives an example of how Conservatives would split when offered a choice between Lib Dem and UKIP. It was a safe seat in 2009, but the Conservatives messed up their nomination in 2013, and couldn't stand. The Lib Dems pushed up their Vote share by 14%, and UKIP pushed up theirs by 36%.
Is that percentage points?
If so, then it is interesting that two-thirds of Conservatives prepared to vote for another party chose UKIP. I guess something else could have been happening - between 2009 and 2013 the Lib Dems did hit a rocky patch, after all.
Are the folding points on ballot papers pre-determined or just done by the people in that polling station?
My ballot this morning was folded in to 3 main sections, but then had a very small final fold which resulted in UKIP and only UKIP being covered after you'd unfolded the main sections.
At the time I assumed this was electoral commission nonsense, but do I need to phone in a complaint about my polling station?
I believe someone posted earlier today that the ballots can be folded but that they should be unfolded before being handed to the voter. If they are handed over folded then I believe that is counter to the guidelines (rules?)
Are the folding points on ballot papers pre-determined or just done by the people in that polling station?
My ballot this morning was folded in to 3 main sections, but then had a very small final fold which resulted in UKIP and only UKIP being covered after you'd unfolded the main sections.
At the time I assumed this was electoral commission nonsense, but do I need to phone in a complaint about my polling station?
I believe someone posted earlier today that the ballots can be folded but that they shouodl be unfolded before being handed to the voter. If they are handed over folded then I believe that is counter to the guidelines (rules?)
I can live with it being folded per ce - my concern is whether the bizarre location of the final fold is a national feature or a petty and concerning gesture by the people manning my polling station?
Are the folding points on ballot papers pre-determined or just done by the people in that polling station?
My ballot this morning was folded in to 3 main sections, but then had a very small final fold which resulted in UKIP and only UKIP being covered after you'd unfolded the main sections.
At the time I assumed this was electoral commission nonsense, but do I need to phone in a complaint about my polling station?
I've tallied the number of votes cast in these councils in 2010 (excluding Daventry which has had boundary changes so comparisons won't be available).
Percentages in 2010 were as follows:
Con 34.1% Lab 31.5% LD 23.1% Green 3.2% Ind 1.9% UKIP 1.6% Others 4.7%
So we can compare tonight's results with these figures to see what's happened as far as the popular vote is concerned.
Sunderland not declaring first shocker !
the One point on comparisons. In 2010 the locals coincided with GE.This no doubt raised turnout compared to normal local elections.The higher turnout helped Labour in particular as they historically had difficulty in getting out their vote for locals whereas Lib Dems and Tories may have lost out from Labour's gain.
I have just voted on a gloriously sunny Gibraltar evening. Probably the only place where people are actually voting almost exclusively on european issues!
Now down on the boat with PB on the laptop, cricket on the wireless and a glass of wine close by.
Voted this morning,very quiet,but the polling station is in a very quiet village Bolton-le-sands,my Father in law,who cannot walk more than about 50 yards(normally) also voted,but had to stop at the village pub on the way back to recover. I think he was bored,strangely his legs are worse after a rest in the pub. Overheard a Woman advising her daughter who to vote for,the in/out referendum was the topic. Mrs Jayfdee did not know what was happening,and could not care less,and will not vote,which is perhaps just as well,as her vote may well cancel out mine. The voting paper was not folded in any way,contrary to some reports.
Do you think UKIP have done well in your area?
It is a strange mix of people here,Hest Bank has the largest number of Doctors of any village,plenty of older folk,fairly wealthy,it is not natural UKIP territory,but 5 miles away is Morecambe,which is very depressed and possibly fertile UKIP. At the last GE Geraldine Smith,Lab, got chucked out(Yeah),before her was Mark Lennox-Boyd,the hyphenated surname tells you which party. I got no UKIP literature,I have seen no UKIP placards,so I suspect we are a UKIP free zone. I have received many contacts from the Conservatives,and numerous e-mails from Dave,Boris,and Grant,so I think we will be Tory.
I have just voted on a gloriously sunny Gibraltar evening. Probably the only place where people are actually voting almost exclusively on european issues!
Now down on the boat with PB on the laptop, cricket on the wireless and a glass of wine close by.
O frabjous day!
What were your choices in Gibraltar ?
We are part of the SouthWest list.
The LibDems actually fielded a token Gibraltarian as the last candidate on their list. Hopefully, though, they won't even get the top one returned!
My polling station was deserted. Central London - 1:30pm My number was taken by a man at the door, my poll card was processed by a duo at a table, and then I voted. Perhaps 4-5 other people (not voters) milling around though. Not a policeman in sight.
Didn't it used to be the case that there was a policeman?
Politics here is a bit strange. The government is a coalition of Socialist Labour (formally affiliated with UK Labour) and Liberal (formally affiliated with the LibDems) with the Social Democrats in opposition (informally close to the Conservatives)
The Conservatives and UKIP have local branches but are only politically active at EU election times and for social gatherings.
UKIP will always struggle here because we remember the Spanish only opened the border at Margaret Thatcher's insistence when the Spanish wanted to join the EU. The fear is that Euroscepticism will cause real on-the-ground problems here from the Spanish. However the Conservatives have always been our strongest supporters.
We also remember Jack Straw and Blair trying to hand us over to Spain without a referendum so UK Labour struggle too with those of us of a certain era.
The LibDem MEP Graham Watson is a pain though. For some unknown reason the local newspaper, in the fashion of a grey squirrel, has crawled up his rectal passage and nests in there only emerging in the summer to gather nuts and berries. He now has name recognition far beyond his limited intelligence and abilities - and therefore unthinking votes.
So it'll be Conservative and then LibDem, Labour, UKIP I would estimate.
"All of our wonderful plodding to the poll station seems quite a contrast to the Thai situation. I'm not sure if I should be pleased or worried that the concept of a coup by UK Forces is beyond belief."
More likely to be the Police Federation. Perhaps that's why there were no coppers at the booths.
On my way home from Chelsea Flower Show after a hard day's work only punctuated by a late start, early finish and tea at the Savoy. Life it's so tough!
Votes to be cast when I get home, the wife wants to make sure that objectionable Fararge gets beaten, and also the weirdo Milliband. (Her words this am). She has arrived at this conclusion without my overt or subliminal indoctrination. In effect she views it as a presidential choice, which in itself is interesting as we are frequently (and correctly in factual terms) told that our system is not presidential. Maybe it is becoming more so to a sector of voters who are not political obsessives.
Looks like the.blue team will get a.couple of votes.
Comments
er Sorry correction UKIP share should have read 12%!
Are you really being serious?
I had amongst the usual choices, UKIP and BNP, the poor polling clerks had to stifle a laugh at my reaction.
Didn't listen to P2 but sounds like it was dry for six minutes and wet the rest of the time, so I'd spend as much time considering the P2 times as I would considering voting for Ed Balls.
Why would Labour endorse LibDems who have more loyally voted through Tory bills than Tory MPs? Practically speaking a LibDem MP is a Tory MP.
Answer
Parliamentary Bills are Coalition Government Bills not Tory Bills. Lib Dems are being loyal to the coalition and loyal to sorting out their country's economic mess.
It reminds me of the Caucus Race in Alice in Wonderland. As the Dodo said, "Everybody has won, and all must have prizes ..."
Mind you, they also had to wait around after the Caucus Race ended, asking "But who has won?" - which is much more reminiscent of this week ...
http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=hWByX5-c5SIC&printsec=frontcover&dq=alice+in+wonderland&hl=en&sa=X&ei=CyJ-U5riHu-O7QbrrICADg&sqi=2&ved=0CEcQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&q=prizes&f=false
The Scottish people (Scottish Gaelic: Albannaich), or Scots, are a nation and ethnic group native to Scotland. Historically they emerged from an amalgamation of the Picts and Gaels, incorporating neighbouring Britons to the south as well as Germanic peoples such as the Anglo-Saxons and the Norse. Later the Normans also had some influence.
The potential new One Party States are all Labour-controlled councils owing to the electoral cycle favouring Labour in 2014. These 16 councils will join 99 already existing One Party States, 63 of which are Conservative, 3 of which are Liberal Democrat and 33 of which are Labour. That means another 3.2 million people will join the existing 16.2 million living under One Party States.
- See more at: http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/press-releases/#sthash.fNsn70fX.dpuf
Edits- oops - You weren't replying to me.
Probably Pictish on my fathers side Celtic on my mothers. But genealogy is difficult in Scotland unless you are nobility.
Choochter Blood - Toonser Heart!!!
Don't mock the Picts, They were smart enough to trace succession through the maternal line. On the very good grounds that you could be almost certain who the mother was, fathers could be more problematic
[apologies if it was merely the lack of capitalisation - I'm just touch typing]
Perhaps we should revisit the name agreed in 1912: instead of Conservative and Unionist Party, maybe Conservative and Liberal Unionist Party would be clearer?
EDIT: Oscar's thoughts on the topic:
LADY BRACKNELL : [Sternly]... What are your politics?
JACK: Well, I am afraid I really have none. I am a Liberal Unionist.
LADY BRACKNELL: Oh, they count as Tories. They dine with us.
Every society has some intermingling of blood, but given where my fathers ancestors came from, this would have been somewhat limited until the ending of the clan system.
I had a change of mind during the day. I had intended to vote Green in the Euros and Conservative in the locals but, after a bit of pencil hovering, the Conservatives got both of my votes - despite the fact that I've had a Green flyer in my front window for over a week! It was Theresa May's speech yesterday that swung my vote.
Not very busy in the polling station. One person ahead of me and another coming in as I was leaving. The lady ahead of me was very surprised to be given 2 ballot papers. She'd come just knowing about the local elections. The fact that Euro elections were happening too was news to her.
http://www.salon.com/2014/05/22/must_see_morning_clip_jason_jones_commissioned_a_story_about_himself_in_an_indian_newspaper/
"Asked what his hopes are for his first trip to the sub-continent, Jones replied ‘Having stayed at the Trump Taj Mahal Hotel and Casino at Atlantic City New Jersey I think I have a pretty good understanding of India"
http://i4.thejournal.co.uk/incoming/article6693636.ece/alternates/s2197/Nigel-Farage.jpg
http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/may/22/your-handy-guide-to-the-2014-local-and-european-elections
Estimated declaration times
I must admit to internet S-ing my pants when we got to the end of the ethno-scots discussion.
A strange combination of voting Green and Conservative. Did you realise that the Green Party policies are pro nationalisation and anti business?
Mrs Stodge and I will be out to vote after dinner as one should.
Labout won all 60 seats in 2010 polling 66% of the vote Borough-wide with the Conservatives back on 18% and the Christian People's Alliance on 7.5% followed by Respect and the Liberal Democrats.
Apart from when Respect polled 26% in 2006, Labour have dominated in recent times winning 59 out of 60 seats in 2002, all 60 seats in 1998 and 54 out of 60 in 2006.
It's hard to see anything other than a huge Labour win - I do think the Conservatives have a chance in Royal Docks as do the CPA in Canning Town ut not much more than that and despite all the electioneering, the fact remains Labour won my Ward with nearly 70% of the vote last time. To imagine that being wiped out takes more imagination than I have.
The Tories have tried hard though I question why their activists aren't working more likely areas in neighbouring Boroughs (I expect the Conservatives to do very well in Tower Hamlets which is one to watch tonight or tomorrow). UKIP have no presence here at all though they are standing a handful of candidates.
I rather wonder that too. The Greens are excellent at really identifying the long term issues. Their solutions though are awful. From a purely issues based view I'd vote Green, but having seen what they propose I'd much prefer Monster Raving Loony. I did though settle on a compromise and vote Tory.
I think Labour will squeak home here (Euros) in terms of seats and votes. They have a blanket coverage which UKIP lack. I have a few hundred of the Omnium funds resting on that assumption. (I would however say that my history of opposing short price favourites in political betting is abysmal, with oddly the exception of Ed Balls)
The council elections are perhaps much more important. My suspicion is that Labour won't really achieve.
From all this though (again my guess) the LDs will have a problem. I wouldn't worry if I was in their shoes as I think that the last few years have cemented their place, but then I'm not a LD.
All of our wonderful plodding to the poll station seems quite a contrast to the Thai situation. I'm not sure if I should be pleased or worried that the concept of a coup by UK Forces is beyond belief.
Pretty busy here in Raynes Park (West Barnes polling station) as commuters come home from Central London...
@beaubodor: Ed Miliband in Monty Python's 'The Meaning of PR'. http://t.co/dzfMTKgpBh
You could make the argument that Chamberlain's strain developed into Thatcher's radicals, while Hartington's team because the One Nation Tories.
How many hundred LibPox councillors will go tonight, and will your answer to me above provide them any comfort?
Sorry to hear about the death. You have my condolences
http://order-order.com/2014/05/22/more-bbc-producers-attacking-ukip-lunatics
Given that some of these muppets appear to have been briefed not to be partial, it is hard to be sympathetic when they are caught out.
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/local_2014_by_time.php
I've tallied the number of votes cast in these councils in 2010 (excluding Daventry which has had boundary changes so comparisons won't be available).
Percentages in 2010 were as follows:
Con 34.1%
Lab 31.5%
LD 23.1%
Green 3.2%
Ind 1.9%
UKIP 1.6%
Others 4.7%
So we can compare tonight's results with these figures to see what's happened as far as the popular vote is concerned.
London: 12 (out of 32 in total)
Metropolitan: 12 (out of 36)
Unitary: 10 (out of 19)
District: 31 (out of 74)
Overheard a Woman advising her daughter who to vote for,the in/out referendum was the topic. Mrs Jayfdee did not know what was happening,and could not care less,and will not vote,which is perhaps just as well,as her vote may well cancel out mine.
The voting paper was not folded in any way,contrary to some reports.
I have just voted on a gloriously sunny Gibraltar evening. Probably the only place where people are actually voting almost exclusively on european issues!
Now down on the boat with PB on the laptop, cricket on the wireless and a glass of wine close by.
O frabjous day!
My ballot this morning was folded in to 3 main sections, but then had a very small final fold which resulted in UKIP and only UKIP being covered after you'd unfolded the main sections.
At the time I assumed this was electoral commission nonsense, but do I need to phone in a complaint about my polling station?
If so, then it is interesting that two-thirds of Conservatives prepared to vote for another party chose UKIP. I guess something else could have been happening - between 2009 and 2013 the Lib Dems did hit a rocky patch, after all.
Good job Richard To many are casual about something people died to obtain, and still are in many places.
One point on comparisons. In 2010 the locals coincided with GE.This no doubt raised turnout compared to normal local elections.The higher turnout helped Labour in particular as they historically had difficulty in getting out their vote for locals whereas Lib Dems and Tories may have lost out from Labour's gain.
Any sense on how the vote is going there? High turnout ? Breaking strongly for Con, or is there an increased UKIP sympathy this time?
I'm going to go out on a limb here GeoffM and reckon UKIP might just beat the Lib Dems ^_~
At the last GE Geraldine Smith,Lab, got chucked out(Yeah),before her was Mark Lennox-Boyd,the hyphenated surname tells you which party.
I got no UKIP literature,I have seen no UKIP placards,so I suspect we are a UKIP free zone.
I have received many contacts from the Conservatives,and numerous e-mails from Dave,Boris,and Grant,so I think we will be Tory.
Does this mean the Euros are being counted today/tomorrow with the locals but they will then sit on the results until Sunday?
The LibDems actually fielded a token Gibraltarian as the last candidate on their list.
Hopefully, though, they won't even get the top one returned!
The same party as Roberta Blackman-Woods (Lab, City of Durham)?
Huw Irranca-Davies (lab, Ogmore)?
twitter.com/stuartynwa79/status/469540322276827136
I hope they do vote for Lutfur, I've got £25 on that at 6-4 !
My number was taken by a man at the door, my poll card was processed by a duo at a table, and then I voted. Perhaps 4-5 other people (not voters) milling around though. Not a policeman in sight.
Didn't it used to be the case that there was a policeman?
Politics here is a bit strange. The government is a coalition of Socialist Labour (formally affiliated with UK Labour) and Liberal (formally affiliated with the LibDems) with the Social Democrats in opposition (informally close to the Conservatives)
The Conservatives and UKIP have local branches but are only politically active at EU election times and for social gatherings.
UKIP will always struggle here because we remember the Spanish only opened the border at Margaret Thatcher's insistence when the Spanish wanted to join the EU. The fear is that Euroscepticism will cause real on-the-ground problems here from the Spanish. However the Conservatives have always been our strongest supporters.
We also remember Jack Straw and Blair trying to hand us over to Spain without a referendum so UK Labour struggle too with those of us of a certain era.
The LibDem MEP Graham Watson is a pain though. For some unknown reason the local newspaper, in the fashion of a grey squirrel, has crawled up his rectal passage and nests in there only emerging in the summer to gather nuts and berries. He now has name recognition far beyond his limited intelligence and abilities - and therefore unthinking votes.
So it'll be Conservative and then LibDem, Labour, UKIP I would estimate.
More likely to be the Police Federation. Perhaps that's why there were no coppers at the booths.
Votes to be cast when I get home, the wife wants to make sure that objectionable Fararge gets beaten, and also the weirdo Milliband. (Her words this am). She has arrived at this conclusion without my overt or subliminal indoctrination. In effect she views it as a presidential choice, which in itself is interesting as we are frequently (and correctly in factual terms) told that our system is not presidential. Maybe it is becoming more so to a sector of voters who are not political obsessives.
Looks like the.blue team will get a.couple of votes.
"Lutfur Rahman (born 1965 or 1966)".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lutfur_Rahman
This is now being picked up in the nationals (express)
Massive stink ahead.