Just returned from voting at the local parish hall, two charming middle aged ladies took my voting card and handed over the voting slip – I thanked them kindly and jokingly asked if it would be OK to take a 'selfie' while I voted, they both smiled knowingly to each other and said “try it, and we’ll kill you” – I didn’t. ; (
Voted by post last week. The Party List System stinks, hard to see any merit in it. Almost voted LD until I noticed the candidate was a SPAD, my wife's comment - doesn't look old enough to shave.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 11 mins Based on reports from all over country EP14 turnout looks set to top the best ever, 37.6% in 2004, by quite a margin. Could it get to 40%?
Just returned from voting at the local parish hall, two charming middle aged ladies took my voting card and handed over the voting slip – I thanked them kindly and jokingly asked if it would be OK to take a 'selfie' while I voted, they both smiled knowingly to each other and said “try it, and we’ll kill you” – I didn’t. ; (
Reminds me of a Channel 4 programme on some 80 + former Commandos - I could kill you with my bare hands. The tv crew didn't want to take up the offer.
Just voted. 7.30 Lambeth. Pretty busy. Lot's of young people. My ward's still safe Labour but gentrifying. Went for UKIP in the Euros. There was a single UKIP standing in the locals, so voted for him, plus two Cons.
My Euro ballot was pre-folded and handed to me as such ie folded. I told the clerk he was doing it wrong. So the clerk took it back, unfolded it and gave it to me. Thanks. The presiding officer then came over and said that's how they'd been told to do it - hand them out folded. I was advised to leave my email on a list of people to be contacted for feedback. But I doubt they'll be in touch. Lambeth are useless in everything that they do. Wish I lived in Wandsworth.
So.. Lutfur Rahman the alleged criminal is standing for Labour. It seems that his campaign may rely on methods that are unacceptable.
What's clear is the following;
Labour should entirely rid themselves of this rabble. Mr Rahman is clearly very low, in fact I think I'd struggle to find such a dodgy individual for comparison.
Should this man be elected Labour need to declare their position immediately - of course the lawyers will delay this, but soon - they need to declare him as unfit to hold office. They also need to declare that the system which placed such a wrong'un before the electorate is broken, and they need to completely destroy it and start again.
Perhaps I'm wrong, perhaps the internet is a conspiracy against Mr Rahman. Bet Now!
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 11 mins Based on reports from all over country EP14 turnout looks set to top the best ever, 37.6% in 2004, by quite a margin. Could it get to 40%?
The UKIP effect (pro & anti)?
UKIP support is supposed to come in part from non-voters. If it's real, turnout should increase.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 11 mins Based on reports from all over country EP14 turnout looks set to top the best ever, 37.6% in 2004, by quite a margin. Could it get to 40%?
The UKIP effect (pro & anti)?
A Swedish commenter earlier mused that UKIP was able to stir otherwise sofa-ridden Nats.
Frank, LAB at 3.4 (3.45 now btw) is not that incredible. Coral have the same price.
I suspect that LAB are going to have serious GOTV woes in parts of GB which are not also voting in council elections. Eg. Scotland.
Does any party do a GOTV operation for the Euros when there aren't simultaneous local elections? Most activists I've met who'd be willing to do GOTV activity at local or general elections are distinctly unmotivated to do likewise for the Europeans.
- "Does any party do a GOTV operation for the Euros when there aren't simultaneous local elections?"
Of my five immediate family I reckon 1LD, 1 Green, 2 Con and 1Kipper (my father is a pro European kipper, so insanity is indeed in the family) Not all are in the East Midlands.
Busy in my polling station despite no council elections here, nearly half crossed out by 1930.
Some final bets with Ladbrokes also. I will be out of pocket if Labour win, but seems unlikely to me.
Put a tenner on AIFE share above 1.5% based upon Mikes post this AM, and another tenner on 2 LD seats based on the above.
What time do the council results come in? Are most tomorrow?
Of my five immediate family I reckon 1LD, 1 Green, 2 Con and 1Kipper (my father is a pro European kipper, so insanity is indeed in the family) Not all are in the East Midlands.
Busy in my polling station despite no council elections here, nearly half crossed out by 1930.
Some final bets with Ladbrokes also. I will be out of pocket if Labour win, but seems unlikely to me.
Put a tenner on AIFE share above 1.5% based upon Mikes post this AM, and another tenner on 2 LD seats based on the above.
What time do the council results come in? Are most tomorrow?
The Guardian have published expected declaration times.
Fairly solid figures now and don't see why I shouldn't share them. Turnout in Broxtowe 30 minutes ago (730) was estimated at 19% + PVs, i.e. somewhere in the 30s. Elsewhere in the E Mids more like 14-17. Definitely higher turnout in the Guardianish areas (approaching 30% plus PVs with over 2 hours to go), and a lot of militantly anti-UKIP feeling in those, but definitely lower in CDE wards. No clear picture of what's happening in the strong Tory wards, and not a clue how the non-Labour vote is dividing. Ours seems to be holding up well with little loss to UKIP and virtually none to the Tories, but plenty of abstentions - I'd guess we'll end up somewhere between a local election turnout and a GE turnout.
Best guess on result in E Mids: Lab 2 (+1), UKIP 2 (+1 not counting defection), Con 1 (-1), LD 0 (-1). Can't quite rule out a second Tory or a Green, though.
Frank, LAB at 3.4 (3.45 now btw) is not that incredible. Coral have the same price.
I suspect that LAB are going to have serious GOTV woes in parts of GB which are not also voting in council elections. Eg. Scotland.
Does any party do a GOTV operation for the Euros when there aren't simultaneous local elections? Most activists I've met who'd be willing to do GOTV activity at local or general elections are distinctly unmotivated to do likewise for the Europeans.
- "Does any party do a GOTV operation for the Euros when there aren't simultaneous local elections?"
Of my five immediate family I reckon 1LD, 1 Green, 2 Con and 1Kipper (my father is a pro European kipper, so insanity is indeed in the family) Not all are in the East Midlands.
Busy in my polling station despite no council elections here, nearly half crossed out by 1930.
Some final bets with Ladbrokes also. I will be out of pocket if Labour win, but seems unlikely to me.
Put a tenner on AIFE share above 1.5% based upon Mikes post this AM, and another tenner on 2 LD seats based on the above.
What time do the council results come in? Are most tomorrow?
I voted Conservative in the locals, and UKIP (with some serious reservations) in the euros.
I only made my mind up about 7pm. Some of the UKIP candidates are quite ugly, and Farage really misfired a few times over the past 10 days. I didn't particularly enjoy the tone of the campaign.
However, I agree with Peter Oborne. UKIP and Farage has reinvigorated our democracy. IMHO a UKIP victory is needed to blow a giant hole in the side of the complacency of the political establishment and make them think. I never again want to see a situation where effectively a third of the electorate have their views, hopes and fears ignored, and they themselves patronised and insulted.
I voted Conservative in the locals, and UKIP (with some serious reservations) in the euros.
I only made my mind up about 7pm. Some of the UKIP candidates are quite ugly, and Farage really misfired a few times over the past 10 days. I didn't particularly enjoy the tone of the campaign.
However, I agree with Peter Oborne. UKIP and Farage has reinvigorated our democracy. IMHO a UKIP victory is needed to blow a giant hole in the side of the complacency of the political establishment and make them think. I never again want to see a situation where effectively a third of the electorate have their views, hopes and fears ignored, and they themselves patronised and insulted.
- " the electorate have their views, hopes and fears ignored, and they themselves patronised and insulted"
Now you know how most Scots felt during the Thatcher and Major years.
I wonder if, with this awful weather, UKIP might actually thrash the other parties, out of sight.
I just polled my mum and her husband. 70-something. And solid UKIP for the euros. They've gone from Labour to Tory to UKIP, and they are quintessential middle Britain.
They are not remotely racist and they don't believe Farage is, either, but they wouldn't want a group of male Roma moving in next door.
Call me naive, but I agree with you. This Harry Hayfield guff about too close to call just doesn't cut it. I suspect that UKIP will win by miles.
Incidentally, the far left in the Netherlands seem to have outpolled the main social democratic party. That is like Labour being outpolled by Respect.
Shalford Division on Surrey CC gives an example of how Conservatives would split when offered a choice between Lib Dem and UKIP. It was a safe seat in 2009, but the Conservatives messed up their nomination in 2013, and couldn't stand. The Lib Dems pushed up their Vote share by 14%, and UKIP pushed up theirs by 36%.
Is that percentage points?
If so, then it is interesting that two-thirds of Conservatives prepared to vote for another party chose UKIP. I guess something else could have been happening - between 2009 and 2013 the Lib Dems did hit a rocky patch, after all.
Yes, percentage points. Further into London, I imagine the split would be more favourable to the Lib Dems. Further out, more favourable to UKIP.
Frank, LAB at 3.4 (3.45 now btw) is not that incredible. Coral have the same price.
I suspect that LAB are going to have serious GOTV woes in parts of GB which are not also voting in council elections. Eg. Scotland.
Does any party do a GOTV operation for the Euros when there aren't simultaneous local elections? Most activists I've met who'd be willing to do GOTV activity at local or general elections are distinctly unmotivated to do likewise for the Europeans.
- "Does any party do a GOTV operation for the Euros when there aren't simultaneous local elections?"
Yes. The Scottish National Party.
Hell yes - we've had teams out all day.
David Herdson's comment - "Most activists I've met who'd be willing to do GOTV activity at local or general elections are distinctly unmotivated to do likewise for the Europeans" - is very telling. It tells us a lot about morale among ordinary Conservative activists. They are dispirited.
I wonder if, with this awful weather, UKIP might actually thrash the other parties, out of sight.
I just polled my mum and her husband. 70-something. And solid UKIP for the euros. They've gone from Labour to Tory to UKIP, and they are quintessential middle Britain.
They are not remotely racist and they don't believe Farage is, either, but they wouldn't want a group of male Roma moving in next door.
Call me naive, but I agree with you. This Harry Hayfield guff about too close to call just doesn't cut it. I suspect that UKIP will win by miles.
Incidentally, the far left in the Netherlands seem to have outpolled the main social democratic party. That is like Labour being outpolled by Respect.
I've never understood where this 66% rise in the Labour vote was going to come from. More likely 3rd than 1st for me.
I wonder if, with this awful weather, UKIP might actually thrash the other parties, out of sight.
I just polled my mum and her husband. 70-something. And solid UKIP for the euros. They've gone from Labour to Tory to UKIP, and they are quintessential middle Britain.
They are not remotely racist and they don't believe Farage is, either, but they wouldn't want a group of male Roma moving in next door.
Call me naive, but I agree with you. This Harry Hayfield guff about too close to call just doesn't cut it. I suspect that UKIP will win by miles.
Incidentally, the far left in the Netherlands seem to have outpolled the main social democratic party. That is like Labour being outpolled by Respect.
I've never understood where this 66% rise in the Labour vote was going to come from. More likely 3rd than 1st for me.
Just done the deed. Couldn't decide between two parties until the last second. The proxy vote I was casting was for the other party, so there was one of each so-to-speak.
There does seem to be a palpable lack of enthusiasm for Milibands. That campaign was a mess, Axel rose has his work cut out if 2015 is not going to be a Milishambles.
I wonder if, with this awful weather, UKIP might actually thrash the other parties, out of sight.
I just polled my mum and her husband. 70-something. And solid UKIP for the euros. They've gone from Labour to Tory to UKIP, and they are quintessential middle Britain.
They are not remotely racist and they don't believe Farage is, either, but they wouldn't want a group of male Roma moving in next door.
Call me naive, but I agree with you. This Harry Hayfield guff about too close to call just doesn't cut it. I suspect that UKIP will win by miles.
Incidentally, the far left in the Netherlands seem to have outpolled the main social democratic party. That is like Labour being outpolled by Respect.
I've never understood where this 66% rise in the Labour vote was going to come from. More likely 3rd than 1st for me.
Frank, LAB at 3.4 (3.45 now btw) is not that incredible. Coral have the same price.
I suspect that LAB are going to have serious GOTV woes in parts of GB which are not also voting in council elections. Eg. Scotland.
Does any party do a GOTV operation for the Euros when there aren't simultaneous local elections? Most activists I've met who'd be willing to do GOTV activity at local or general elections are distinctly unmotivated to do likewise for the Europeans.
- "Does any party do a GOTV operation for the Euros when there aren't simultaneous local elections?"
Yes. The Scottish National Party.
Hell yes - we've had teams out all day.
David Herdson's comment - "Most activists I've met who'd be willing to do GOTV activity at local or general elections are distinctly unmotivated to do likewise for the Europeans" - is very telling. It tells us a lot about morale among ordinary Conservative activists. They are dispirited.
GOTV can make a real difference in a particular ward. Across an entire region, not much.
There does seem to be a palpable lack of enthusiasm for Milibands. That campaign was a mess, Axel rose has his work cut out if 2015 is not going to be a Milishambles.
I wonder if, with this awful weather, UKIP might actually thrash the other parties, out of sight.
I just polled my mum and her husband. 70-something. And solid UKIP for the euros. They've gone from Labour to Tory to UKIP, and they are quintessential middle Britain.
They are not remotely racist and they don't believe Farage is, either, but they wouldn't want a group of male Roma moving in next door.
Call me naive, but I agree with you. This Harry Hayfield guff about too close to call just doesn't cut it. I suspect that UKIP will win by miles.
Incidentally, the far left in the Netherlands seem to have outpolled the main social democratic party. That is like Labour being outpolled by Respect.
I've never understood where this 66% rise in the Labour vote was going to come from. More likely 3rd than 1st for me.
I'll cream myself if Labour finish 3rd.
Cash ahoy !
Not mentioning the EU, in the EU Parliament elections was odd.
Scottish independence: Better Together ignores the youth vote to its cost
... As a student at the University of Edinburgh, I come into contact with the independence debate almost daily, and the positivity and openness of young Yes campaigners present a stark contrast to advocates of the union. "Yes" posters and stickers are plastered across the campus, yet the blue Better Together logo is notably absent. This in a city regarded as a union stronghold. The strong presence of the Yes campaign across social media – 20,000 more followers than Better Together on Twitter if that’s anything to go by - only encourages these young supporters of independence to keep sharing their cause, loud and proud.
... A season of optimism approaches, and if Better Together merely continues to tread water, the Yes campaign will have made decisive gains come September.
I voted Conservative in the locals, and UKIP (with some serious reservations) in the euros.
I only made my mind up about 7pm. Some of the UKIP candidates are quite ugly, and Farage really misfired a few times over the past 10 days. I didn't particularly enjoy the tone of the campaign.
However, I agree with Peter Oborne. UKIP and Farage has reinvigorated our democracy. IMHO a UKIP victory is needed to blow a giant hole in the side of the complacency of the political establishment and make them think. I never again want to see a situation where effectively a third of the electorate have their views, hopes and fears ignored, and they themselves patronised and insulted.
If we do get a 40% turnout, I agree.
Disraeli's two nations are no longer rich and poor. They're Metropolitan and non-Metroplitan.
Scottish independence: Better Together ignores the youth vote to its cost
... As a student at the University of Edinburgh, I come into contact with the independence debate almost daily, and the positivity and openness of young Yes campaigners present a stark contrast to advocates of the union. "Yes" posters and stickers are plastered across the campus, yet the blue Better Together logo is notably absent. This in a city regarded as a union stronghold. The strong presence of the Yes campaign across social media – 20,000 more followers than Better Together on Twitter if that’s anything to go by - only encourages these young supporters of independence to keep sharing their cause, loud and proud.
... A season of optimism approaches, and if Better Together merely continues to tread water, the Yes campaign will have made decisive gains come September.
Rather more impressive than the free advertising for a financial company masquerading, as far as I can see, as a poll produced by Carrington Dean (the report on their website is remarkable for what it does not say about how the poll was done).
Out of boredom I just completed a survey for the Labour Party on facebook. The final question was :- "The idea of 5 more years of Tory rule makes me feel ___."
If the Greens really are set to beat the LibDems in today's Euro elections, then as well as taking votes off the Yellows directly, surely their only other meaningful source of support is from former Labour voters. If such a resurgence were to be seen over the coming months in terms of Westminster voting intentions, this could provide Miliband & Co. with a real headache.
In the final YouGov poll for the European elections the Greens take 19% of 2010 Lib Dem voters and 8% of Labour 2010 voters [and 3% of those who voted Blue to go Green].
In the Westminster voting intention the Greens take 1% of the Labour and Conservative 2010 voters and 7% of the 2010 Lib Dems.
If the Greens really are set to beat the LibDems in today's Euro elections, then as well as taking votes off the Yellows directly, surely their only other meaningful source of support is from former Labour voters. If such a resurgence were to be seen over the coming months in terms of Westminster voting intentions, this could provide Miliband & Co. with a real headache.
In the final YouGov poll for the European elections the Greens take 19% of 2010 Lib Dem voters and 8% of Labour 2010 voters [and 3% of those who voted Blue to go Green].
In the Westminster voting intention the Greens take 1% of the Labour and Conservative 2010 voters and 7% of the 2010 Lib Dems.
Comments
http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/councils/2010/
Based on reports from all over country EP14 turnout looks set to top the best ever, 37.6% in 2004, by quite a margin. Could it get to 40%?
The UKIP effect (pro & anti)?
My Euro ballot was pre-folded and handed to me as such ie folded. I told the clerk he was doing it wrong. So the clerk took it back, unfolded it and gave it to me. Thanks. The presiding officer then came over and said that's how they'd been told to do it - hand them out folded. I was advised to leave my email on a list of people to be contacted for feedback. But I doubt they'll be in touch. Lambeth are useless in everything that they do. Wish I lived in Wandsworth.
What's clear is the following;
Labour should entirely rid themselves of this rabble. Mr Rahman is clearly very low, in fact I think I'd struggle to find such a dodgy individual for comparison.
Should this man be elected Labour need to declare their position immediately - of course the lawyers will delay this, but soon - they need to declare him as unfit to hold office. They also need to declare that the system which placed such a wrong'un before the electorate is broken, and they need to completely destroy it and start again.
Perhaps I'm wrong, perhaps the internet is a conspiracy against Mr Rahman. Bet Now!
O
Yes. The Scottish National Party.
GB Vote Share Match Bet
Lib Dems 5/6
Greens 5/6
Of my five immediate family I reckon 1LD, 1 Green, 2 Con and 1Kipper (my father is a pro European kipper, so insanity is indeed in the family) Not all are in the East Midlands.
Busy in my polling station despite no council elections here, nearly half crossed out by 1930.
Some final bets with Ladbrokes also. I will be out of pocket if Labour win, but seems unlikely to me.
Put a tenner on AIFE share above 1.5% based upon Mikes post this AM, and another tenner on 2 LD seats based on the above.
What time do the council results come in? Are most tomorrow?
UKIP 1.33
Lab 3.6
Con 19
Grn 1000
LD 1000
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/may/22/your-handy-guide-to-the-2014-local-and-european-elections
UKIP 1.52
Lab 3.25
Con 16.5
Grn 1000
LD 1000
Long ballot paper. No lookalike Kippers on the list but, we had Labour, Socialist, and Socialist Labour. Who's the pythonesque "Splitter"?
Best guess on result in E Mids: Lab 2 (+1), UKIP 2 (+1 not counting defection), Con 1 (-1), LD 0 (-1). Can't quite rule out a second Tory or a Green, though.
And with that, back out for the final swing...
I only made my mind up about 7pm. Some of the UKIP candidates are quite ugly, and Farage really misfired a few times over the past 10 days. I didn't particularly enjoy the tone of the campaign.
However, I agree with Peter Oborne. UKIP and Farage has reinvigorated our democracy. IMHO a UKIP victory is needed to blow a giant hole in the side of the complacency of the political establishment and make them think. I never again want to see a situation where effectively a third of the electorate have their views, hopes and fears ignored, and they themselves patronised and insulted.
Conservatives to win a seat 1/4
Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1
UKIP to win a seat 11/8
UKIP to win 0 seats 8/15
Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1
Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10
SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3
Labour to win more votes than SNP 2/1
Now you know how most Scots felt during the Thatcher and Major years.
Incidentally, the far left in the Netherlands seem to have outpolled the main social democratic party. That is like Labour being outpolled by Respect.
David Herdson's comment - "Most activists I've met who'd be willing to do GOTV activity at local or general elections are distinctly unmotivated to do likewise for the Europeans" - is very telling. It tells us a lot about morale among ordinary Conservative activists. They are dispirited.
Eastleigh at 0200 looks interesting.
Cash ahoy !
Looks as if Labour back Mr Biggs.
... As a student at the University of Edinburgh, I come into contact with the independence debate almost daily, and the positivity and openness of young Yes campaigners present a stark contrast to advocates of the union. "Yes" posters and stickers are plastered across the campus, yet the blue Better Together logo is notably absent. This in a city regarded as a union stronghold. The strong presence of the Yes campaign across social media – 20,000 more followers than Better Together on Twitter if that’s anything to go by - only encourages these young supporters of independence to keep sharing their cause, loud and proud.
... A season of optimism approaches, and if Better Together merely continues to tread water, the Yes campaign will have made decisive gains come September.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10849332/Scottish-independence-Better-Together-ignores-the-youth-vote-to-its-cost.html
Disraeli's two nations are no longer rich and poor. They're Metropolitan and non-Metroplitan.
Castle Point 12.30am was a good 2013 result for UKIP.
Cannock Chase, Castle Point, Hull, Hartlepool, Carlisle, Croydon, Eastleigh, Lincoln, Redbridge, Rotherham, Stevenage, Swindon, Worcester, Harlow, Tamworth, Birmingham, Bristol, Gloucester, Haringey, Ipswich, Thurrock, Peterborough, Cambridge, Enfield, Portsmouth, Kingston, Richmond, Hammersmith&Fulham.
Possible Labour/UKIP battles:
Hull, Hartlepool, Rotherham.
Con/Lab:
Cannock Chase, Carlisle, Croydon, Lincoln, Redbridge, Stevenage, Swindon, Worcester, Harlow, Tamworth, Gloucester, Ipswich, Thurrock, Peterborough, Enfield, Hammersmith&Fulham.
Con/LD:
Kingston, Richmond, Portsmouth.
Con/LD/UKIP:
Eastleigh.
Lab/LD:
Haringey, Cambridge.
Con/UKIP:
Castle Point.
I answered '...tumescent'.
In the Westminster voting intention the Greens take 1% of the Labour and Conservative 2010 voters and 7% of the 2010 Lib Dems.
In the Westminster voting intention the Greens take 1% of the Labour and Conservative 2010 voters and 7% of the 2010 Lib Dems.