Well I can't say I was enthusiastic about it but I have voted. There was one other person there as well and then another came in as I was leaving. Surprisingly high level of activity really.
The tellers said that things had been really quiet. One of them commented they expect to be a lot busier in September. We may well be queuing for that.
In Scotland I expect the SNP to come top but I think they will struggle to pick up the extra seat. I think there is a reasonable chance of that going to UKIP although it is just possible the Greens will do better than expected. I really expect the Lib Dems to come 6th. Oblivion beckons.
Janet Daley's prediction: "Turnout will be much higher than usual for either European or local council elections Tories will do better in the local council elections than they might otherwise have done. The working-class London boroughs could see a startling Ukip trend the exit polls will be more accurate than usual"
Just got back to the Midlands after voting in Ilford North earlier. Not too many voters about but the polling station wasn't completely deserted either. I guess it will pick up as the evening commute home begins. Noticed that in London Region at least, UKIP was at the very bottom of a rather long Euro ballot! Council election (Redbridge) was much shorter.
OK, I bet you're wondering who I voted for? Tory Boys for Council (3 x) and Fruitcake Party (Loony Wing!) for the Euros
[Keeping GDP static [or at least not obsessing about increasing it endlessly] would not mean that there would be no profit and no technological innovation. It would just mean that the benefit of technological progress would be used to increase those things that are not measured by GDP - eg leisure time, unpaid creative work, reductions in harmful environmental side-effects.]
Sorry, this just isn't correct. As technology gets better GDP will rise. You're arguing for more leisure time. We've got TV and the Internet. Seriously - how much more do we need???
Those nice people at Ladbrokes are offering odds of 4/1 against Harry's forecast of the LibDems winning 2 Euro seats. That's good enough for me buy DYOR!
Not a chance in hell of the Lib Dems getting a NW seat and not a SE, if they get a SE surely they get a NW - though the lack of a NW seat doesn't imply the lack of a SE seat !
All very interesting Pulpstar, so how many seats do you give the yellows?
given that there arent going to be any exit polls, and she also mentions a referendum on the 'single transferable vote' which also never happened I'll take that with a pinch of salt.
Those nice people at Ladbrokes are offering odds of 4/1 against Harry's forecast of the LibDems winning 2 Euro seats. That's good enough for me buy DYOR!
Not a chance in hell of the Lib Dems getting a NW seat and not a SE, if they get a SE surely they get a NW - though the lack of a NW seat doesn't imply the lack of a SE seat !
All very interesting Pulpstar, so how many seats do you give the yellows?
1 in South East... 1 in South West, 1 in London maybe ?
So 3.... But I'm not betting on Lib Dem seats. A small bet on the Greens higher than Lib Dems though...
MikeK - "If UKIP come top of the Euros in votes and seats it will cause a political earthquake, whichever side one is on politically."
Indeed. Just to reiterate, the winner of every national election for the last 100 years has been either the Conservatives or Labour (the last that wasn't was the December 1910 general election, won by the Liberals). That sequence could end today.
By contrast, the biggest election win by the Lib Dems (or any predecessor party of theirs), since WWII is definitional but is one of Devon County Council, Sheffield City Council, or the Somerset and North Devon Euroconstituency).
In European election terms at least, we have gone from a 2+1 system to a 2+2 to a 3+1 (or perhaps even a 3+0+2).
'A spokeswoman for the Greens said the Party was "delighted" at the strong polling performance, but was now calling on supporters to register their vote and ensure that "on Sunday we can announce that we have gone from two MEPs to six". '
Six would be very impressive. Assume London, SE, Yorks, NW, West Mids, East Mids?
Just got back to the Midlands after voting in Ilford North earlier. Not too many voters about but the polling station wasn't completely deserted either. I guess it will pick up as the evening commute home begins. Noticed that in London Region at least, UKIP was at the very bottom of a rather long Euro ballot! Council election (Redbridge) was much shorter.
OK, I bet you're wondering who I voted for? Tory Boys for Council (3 x) and Fruitcake Party (Loony Wing!) for the Euros
Suspected as much from the recent change in your "masthead" colour. Very surprised however that you voted for the blues locally - I had thought from your posts over recent months that you had taken a sharp turn to the left.
I would be surprised to see UKIP get only 1 MEP in the East Midlands whilst the Tories and Labour get 2. I would expect that one of those Tory seats will end up UKIP.
East Midlands looks like it could be a real 3 way fight for first place. Ukip collapsed there somewhat after Kilroy Silk's earthquake in 2004
Seems almost sure to be 2-2-1 here but not clear who's the 1. Knocking up so far pretty positive, but of course that's just people we believe to be supporters. Light drizzle here now for the first time.
Forgive me for sounding thick but how do you work out who are your supporters ?
Be very interested if anyone who has voted Kipper today is prepared to say now that they would definitely be voting for another party this time next year.....
Why do you think it will be a political earthquake if UKIP win the euros when everyone expects it to happen?
It would be a political earthquake if they took control of a number of councils.
The euros are used as way to express anger and protest and with a coalition government people are using UKIP as that vessel. A lot of people (me included) agree with the idea of getting some control of immigration and are voting UKIP purely for that reason as it has finally become ok to discuss this fact following years of being called racist for doing so. For this Mr F deserves a lot of credit. However in my mind UKIP have become a one trick pony who rely too heavily on one man and one policy. I have asked on here numerous times how they will implement immigration controls and what will happen to those "foreigners" who are already here. I cant find any answer to that question which is a surprise given this is basically their only policy.. I have a feeling Farage will take more of a back seat over the next year as he is exhausted and I just dont think UKIP have anyone else to develop and then sell some coherent policies for the GE. I also think that some of their candidates/councilors/MEPs are just a bit too expressive to survive in this twitter obsessed world. And to me they are just too angry, ask them a question or disagree with them and you get ranted at.
Be very interested if anyone who has voted Kipper today is prepared to say now that they would definitely be voting for another party this time next year.....
I haven't voted at all - being in the Netherlands. But if I was back home I'd have gone UKIP for Euros, Con for Locals and also for next May. UKIP will get +/1 30% in the Euros today and nothing like that next May.
[Keeping GDP static [or at least not obsessing about increasing it endlessly] would not mean that there would be no profit and no technological innovation. It would just mean that the benefit of technological progress would be used to increase those things that are not measured by GDP - eg leisure time, unpaid creative work, reductions in harmful environmental side-effects.]
Sorry, this just isn't correct. As technology gets better GDP will rise. You're arguing for more leisure time. We've got TV and the Internet. Seriously - how much more do we need???
Average working hours have been increasing in recent decades after previously being in decline.
Logically, if you improve the technology that you use to do something, such that it takes one person-hour rather than two person-hours then you have a choice whether to double the quantity of things that you produce, or reduce the number of hours it takes you to produce the same amount of stuff.
As you say: "we have TV and the internet now, how much more do we need???"
An earthquake is an earthquake regardless of predictions. A new party will have won a nationwide election for the first time in almost a century. The party of out will be first, while the party of in will be 4th or worse.
'A spokeswoman for the Greens said the Party was "delighted" at the strong polling performance, but was now calling on supporters to register their vote and ensure that "on Sunday we can announce that we have gone from two MEPs to six". '
Six would be very impressive. Assume London, SE, Yorks, NW, West Mids, East Mids?
East of England and South-West England would elect Green MEPs more easily than either the East or West Midlands.
My own take is that the Greens are going to surprise on the upside, and possibly by quite a bit.
I was going to say surely that will come at the expense of Labour/Lib Dems... but then again these things don't always work out like that.
I don't think people realise how Eurosceptic the Green Party is. They want to "replace the unsustainable economics of free trade and unrestricted growth with the ecological alternative of local self reliance and resource conservation... [the EU is] dominated by economic interests, which lacks democratic control, and promotes the goals of multinational corporations".
Be very interested if anyone who has voted Kipper today is prepared to say now that they would definitely be voting for another party this time next year.....
If what I read from farage is correct in some constituencies there may not be a kipper to vote for.
Just a tory or labour guy who is 'Nigel Farage endorsed' (perhaps he or she will carry a pound sign as a kind of kitemark).
Of course, if you can't cut a deal with Nige as the sitting MP, he'll run his own candidate and send in the blue rinse harpies.
Be very interested if anyone who has voted Kipper today is prepared to say now that they would definitely be voting for another party this time next year.....
I haven't voted at all - being in the Netherlands. But if I was back home I'd have gone UKIP for Euros, Con for Locals and also for next May. UKIP will get +/1 30% in the Euros today and nothing like that next May.
Just to say that around 30% for UKIP in the Euros is about five million actual voters, which would equate to about 15% in a GE, which is roughly what they are currently polling.
I know it's not quite that simplistic - but it's an interesting equivalence.
Be very interested if anyone who has voted Kipper today is prepared to say now that they would definitely be voting for another party this time next year.....
I haven't voted at all - being in the Netherlands. But if I was back home I'd have gone UKIP for Euros, Con for Locals and also for next May. UKIP will get +/1 30% in the Euros today and nothing like that next May.
Just to say that around 30% for UKIP in the Euros is about five million actual voters, which would equate to about 15% in a GE, which is roughly what they are currently polling.
I know it's not quite that simplistic - but it's an interesting equivalence.
Hmm...interesting, but assumes that ALL of UKIP's voters are out today and no more in the GE. I think poll shares are relevant. There clearly are ALOT of UKIP Euro / Con GE voters - Farage even said so asking them to lend their votes for today.
But I wonder if 2 or 3 themes are emerging: 1. UKIP has taken all the Con votes it can already and is now eating into the broader WWC church, incl Labour. 2. UKIP is getting monstered which: A. Firms up the die hard UKIP vote also: B. Puts some of their more moderate vote back to Dave. (and Dave can offer some red meat on immigration / EU to reconnect with these) 3. The real lefty vote may be resplitting if the Greens start being something other than a side note. And if the LDs recover a bit before May then Labour's 35% strategy is looking awfully risky.
Be very interested if anyone who has voted Kipper today is prepared to say now that they would definitely be voting for another party this time next year.....
If what I read from farage is correct in some constituencies there may not be a kipper to vote for.
Just a tory or labour guy who is 'Nigel Farage endorsed' (perhaps he or she will carry a pound sign as a kind of kitemark).
Of course, if you can't cut a deal with Nige as the sitting MP, he'll run his own candidate and send in the blue rinse harpies.
Imagine you are the tory candidate running against ed davey in Kingston and Surbiton in 2015.
It's a tough ask as Davey has a big maj and solid local support, but the libs are not popular so you just might squeak it.
Would you rather run as
1. a tory, facing a well run lib dem campaign on one side and a loud and very active UKIP presence on the other, with their own candidate for the seat.
2. A Nigel Farage endorsed tory, with no UKIP opposition, and a big fat europhile green loving establishment lib dem for opposition.
Why do you think it will be a political earthquake if UKIP win the euros when everyone expects it to happen?
It will be an earthquake in that its hard to call a party with millions of voters either 'racist' or 'fruitcakes'.
I expect there is quite a high proportion who are
And I am sure there are not. I doubt teer is any higher a proportion of racists or fruitcakes in UKIP than there are in the Labour party or the Tories.
Be very interested if anyone who has voted Kipper today is prepared to say now that they would definitely be voting for another party this time next year.....
If what I read from farage is correct in some constituencies there may not be a kipper to vote for.
Just a tory or labour guy who is 'Nigel Farage endorsed' (perhaps he or she will carry a pound sign as a kind of kitemark).
Of course, if you can't cut a deal with Nige as the sitting MP, he'll run his own candidate and send in the blue rinse harpies.
I've not heard of these 'Farage endorsed' candidates before.
An earthquake is an earthquake regardless of predictions. A new party will have won a nationwide election for the first time in almost a century. The party of out will be first, while the party of in will be 4th or worse.
That argument would be stronger if UKIP didn't claim that LibLabCon were all the same. On UKIP's own logic, therefore, we should add up the votes of those three parties and compare the total with UKIP's.
Amazingly the Tories aren't standing in a lot of wards in Islington, but I don't think Bunhill is one of them.
I had a full selection of local candidates, with the exception of the purple nasties, and I was pleased to see that all of them had addresses in the borough. I spent some time contemplating the choice, bearing in mind that I was also voting on behalf of my other half (whose only instruction was "not UKIP").
I voted Green today. Good to see I wasn't alone. I once attended a talk by a Green economist who seemed straight out of the Keynesian tradition. I was quite impressed; certainly better than the fake Keynesianism of Ed Balls or the neoliberal rubbish of Cameron and Clegg.
Imagine you are the tory candidate running against ed davey in Kingston and Surbiton in 2015.
It's a tough ask as Davey has a big maj and solid local support, but the libs are not popular so you just might squeak it.
Would you rather run as
1. a tory, facing a well run lib dem campaign on one side and a loud and very active UKIP presence on the other, with their own candidate for the seat.
2. A Nigel Farage endorsed tory, with no UKIP opposition, and a big fat europhile green loving establishment lib dem for opposition.
Why not take it a step further - A Tory candidate endorsed by UKIP, English Democrats and other swivel-eyed loons vs Mr Davey endorsed by Labour, the Greens and assorted lefty fellow-travelers? Isn't that the ultimate destination for FPTP?
MaxPB earlier : " I find that the Greens are just communists in sheep's (green) clothing" Precisely my impression after I had listened to their leader being interviewed on Radio 5 Live explaining various aspects of their policies prior to the 2010 GE. I simply couldn't believe what I was hearing - prior to which I had considered the Greens to be a well intentioned lot if a little over-obsessed environmentally, but I had no idea they had such far left policies.
Imagine you are the tory candidate running against ed davey in Kingston and Surbiton in 2015.
It's a tough ask as Davey has a big maj and solid local support, but the libs are not popular so you just might squeak it.
Would you rather run as
1. a tory, facing a well run lib dem campaign on one side and a loud and very active UKIP presence on the other, with their own candidate for the seat.
2. A Nigel Farage endorsed tory, with no UKIP opposition, and a big fat europhile green loving establishment lib dem for opposition.
Why not take it a step further - A Tory candidate endorsed by UKIP, English Democrats and other swivel-eyed loons vs Mr Davey endorsed by Labour, the Greens and assorted lefty fellow-travelers? Isn't that the ultimate destination for FPTP?
Why would Labour endorse LibDems who have more loyally voted through Tory bills than Tory MPs? Practically speaking a LibDem MP is a Tory MP.
Imagine you are the tory candidate running against ed davey in Kingston and Surbiton in 2015.
It's a tough ask as Davey has a big maj and solid local support, but the libs are not popular so you just might squeak it.
Would you rather run as
1. a tory, facing a well run lib dem campaign on one side and a loud and very active UKIP presence on the other, with their own candidate for the seat.
2. A Nigel Farage endorsed tory, with no UKIP opposition, and a big fat europhile green loving establishment lib dem for opposition.
The other factor to calculate, of course, is how many will vote against you specifically BECAUSE you have what will be seen as the UKIP mark of the beast on your forehead. In a LD/Tory two-horse race it may not mean much, but in other seats especially in Scotland or Wales, it could be an issue. Slightly to my surprise, someone suggested today on PB (sorry, can't remember who it is) that some Scots were turning out specifically to vote anti-Kipper as much as anything else. How this can be proven I dunno, but ...
I see your point of course, but whoever endorsed Davey would want their pound of flesh - just as UKIP would have their price for not running candidates against tories.
Imagine you are the tory candidate running against ed davey in Kingston and Surbiton in 2015.
It's a tough ask as Davey has a big maj and solid local support, but the libs are not popular so you just might squeak it.
Would you rather run as
1. a tory, facing a well run lib dem campaign on one side and a loud and very active UKIP presence on the other, with their own candidate for the seat.
2. A Nigel Farage endorsed tory, with no UKIP opposition, and a big fat europhile green loving establishment lib dem for opposition.
Why not take it a step further - A Tory candidate endorsed by UKIP, English Democrats and other swivel-eyed loons vs Mr Davey endorsed by Labour, the Greens and assorted lefty fellow-travelers? Isn't that the ultimate destination for FPTP?
Why would Labour endorse LibDems who have more loyally voted through Tory bills than Tory MPs? Practically speaking a LibDem MP is a Tory MP.
Since a significant proportion of Labour supporters in the constituency will be lending the LD their support anyway, why not formalise the arrangement so that we have some influence once they are elected?
Imagine you are the tory candidate running against ed davey in Kingston and Surbiton in 2015.
It's a tough ask as Davey has a big maj and solid local support, but the libs are not popular so you just might squeak it.
Would you rather run as
1. a tory, facing a well run lib dem campaign on one side and a loud and very active UKIP presence on the other, with their own candidate for the seat.
2. A Nigel Farage endorsed tory, with no UKIP opposition, and a big fat europhile green loving establishment lib dem for opposition.
Why not take it a step further - A Tory candidate endorsed by UKIP, English Democrats and other swivel-eyed loons vs Mr Davey endorsed by Labour, the Greens and assorted lefty fellow-travelers? Isn't that the ultimate destination for FPTP?
Why would Labour endorse LibDems who have more loyally voted through Tory bills than Tory MPs? Practically speaking a LibDem MP is a Tory MP.
Since a significant proportion of Labour supporters in the constituency will be lending the LD their support anyway, why not formalise the arrangement so that we have some influence once they are elected?
Which is why we need PR. Desperately. Give people the opportunity to vote for someone they actually want and they might actually vote instead of not.
Imagine you are the tory candidate running against ed davey in Kingston and Surbiton in 2015.
It's a tough ask as Davey has a big maj and solid local support, but the libs are not popular so you just might squeak it.
Would you rather run as
1. a tory, facing a well run lib dem campaign on one side and a loud and very active UKIP presence on the other, with their own candidate for the seat.
2. A Nigel Farage endorsed tory, with no UKIP opposition, and a big fat europhile green loving establishment lib dem for opposition.
There are a number of good reasons why this won't happen.
Firstly, a substantial minority of Tory supporters are nearer the LibDems in outlook than UKIP. By tying up with UKIP you shift those votes into the LibDem column. And even if you were starting at parity (which you're not in Kingston), you'd need to gain two Kippers for every one vote you lose to the LibDems. Furthermore, you'd probably reinvigorate tactical voting in an area where Labour voters are likely to return home in 2015.
Secondly, let's assume that a Nigel Farage endorsed candidate was elected. To whom does he owe his loyalties? The Conservative Party has no interest in creating competition to the right of itself. Any local candidate that attempted a tie-up or accepted an endorsement, would likely be thrown out of the Conservative Party sharpish.
Thirdly, this isn't win-win for UKIP either. This would reduce their overall national vote share, and it could scare off Labour-UKIP waverers (UKIPs just the same as the Tories...)
I would never vote for a joint Conservative/UKIP candidate or government. I'd prefer to be on the right of the Liberal Democrats that sit in the Tories feeling more and more uncomfortable. If ever there are "Farage-endorsed" candidates, I would have to think very carefully.
Why do you think it will be a political earthquake if UKIP win the euros when everyone expects it to happen?
It will be an earthquake in that its hard to call a party with millions of voters either 'racist' or 'fruitcakes'.
I expect there is quite a high proportion who are
And I am sure there are not. I doubt teer is any higher a proportion of racists or fruitcakes in UKIP than there are in the Labour party or the Tories.
I am only basing my views on anecdotal evidence of UKIP voters and out of the 6 i know 5 are full on racist and say things Nick Griffin wouldn't dare and my next door neighbor who has had a UKIP sign outside her house for the past 5 years is as mad as a box of frogs. I realise I may be totally wrong.
Amazingly the Tories aren't standing in a lot of wards in Islington, but I don't think Bunhill is one of them.
I had a full selection of local candidates, with the exception of the purple nasties, and I was pleased to see that all of them had addresses in the borough. I spent some time contemplating the choice, bearing in mind that I was also voting on behalf of my other half (whose only instruction was "not UKIP").
If the Greens really are set to beat the LibDems in today's Euro elections, then as well as taking votes off the Yellows directly, surely their only other meaningful source of support is from former Labour voters. If such a resurgence were to be seen over the coming months in terms of Westminster voting intentions, this could provide Miliband & Co. with a real headache.
I think Farage has a real problem brewing. This election has shown that he has artfully won votes across the economic and political spectrum. As soon as he starts alliances with one of the establishment parties he does two things. Firstly he ceases to be the anti-politics anti-establishment party, second he ceases to be a safe harbour for a chunk of his vote.
I know he has mentioned working with other parties to achieve his end. But remember that his end is to establish a major political party AND get out of Europe, not just the latter. So tactically his suggestion entices wavering Tories but strategically I'd be surprised if it came into being.
@EiT, I've previously looked at the pirates, but they are also just a bunch of communists in sheep's clothing. It was them that introduced the bonus limits and likened the UK banking and finance industry to drug dealers. I have no interest in supporting such a party.
If the Greens really are set to beat the LibDems in today's Euro elections, then as well as taking votes off the Yellows directly, surely their only other meaningful source of support is from former Labour voters. If such a resurgence were to be seen over the coming months in terms of Westminster voting intentions, this could provide Miliband & Co. with a real headache.
This is why Mike is wrong to focus too much on the LD->Lab switchers. It is perfectly possible for Labour's support to drift downwards substantially even if most of those remain mesmerised by the shining beacon of Ed Miliband. A combination of a partial drift back to the LibDems, a drift to the Greens, a little direct Lab->Con switching, and WWC Labour voters going over to UKIP, plus some current supporters not actually voting, could easily take Labour down by several percentage points.
I'm not saying this will happen, but it is one plausible scenario. There's no particular reason to suppose that the current polling will remain steady. (Things could drift the other way, of course).
I think Farage has a real problem brewing. This election has shown that he has artfully won votes across the economic and political spectrum. As soon as he starts alliances with one of the establishment parties he does two things. Firstly he ceases to be the anti-politics anti-establishment party, second he ceases to be a safe harbour for a chunk of his vote.
I know he has mentioned working with other parties to achieve his end. But remember that his end is to establish a major political party AND get out of Europe, not just the latter. So tactically his suggestion entices wavering Tories but strategically I'd be surprised if it came into being.
Your concern for Farage has been noted.
[I had that worded better in my head - but then I forgot.]
Those nice people at Ladbrokes are offering odds of 4/1 against Harry's forecast of the LibDems winning 2 Euro seats. That's good enough for me buy DYOR!
Not a chance in hell of the Lib Dems getting a NW seat and not a SE, if they get a SE surely they get a NW - though the lack of a NW seat doesn't imply the lack of a SE seat !
All very interesting Pulpstar, so how many seats do you give the yellows?
1 in South East... 1 in South West, 1 in London maybe ?
So 3.... But I'm not betting on Lib Dem seats. A small bet on the Greens higher than Lib Dems though...
The SE England one is the best shot for the LibDems. Firstly, they will probably outpoll their national figure here (albeit only modestly). Secondly, there are 12 MEP slots up for grabs. Last time round, the Libs got two with 14.5% of the vote. Realistically, they would need to get sub 6% nationally, and therefore sub 7% in the SE to not pick up a seat there. (80% Libs get an MEP)
However, the SW is by no means as fertile a space. Although the Libs will probably get 10+% here, there are only 6 seats up for grabs. If the Greens beat the Libs in the SW, then it is highly unlikely they will get a seat here. (33% Libs)
London is a better shot for the Yellows. There are more seats, and there are local elections in a number of areas of (historic) LibDem strength. Nevertheless, they are quite likely to be outpolled by the Greens, and therefore you can't say more than a 50% shot.
The North-West is the final area where the Libs stand a chance. Again, there are a number of Yellow constituencies in the area. It's been less affected - probably - by EU migration, and therefore the siren song of UKIP is weaker. I'd also give this a 50% shot.
Outside those 4, there are really no likely wins for the LibDems. I think they'll be way off the pace in Wales, Scotland, and Eastern England.
Imagine you are the tory candidate running against ed davey in Kingston and Surbiton in 2015.
It's a tough ask as Davey has a big maj and solid local support, but the libs are not popular so you just might squeak it.
Would you rather run as
1. a tory, facing a well run lib dem campaign on one side and a loud and very active UKIP presence on the other, with their own candidate for the seat.
2. A Nigel Farage endorsed tory, with no UKIP opposition, and a big fat europhile green loving establishment lib dem for opposition.
Why not take it a step further - A Tory candidate endorsed by UKIP, English Democrats and other swivel-eyed loons vs Mr Davey endorsed by Labour, the Greens and assorted lefty fellow-travelers? Isn't that the ultimate destination for FPTP?
Why would Labour endorse LibDems who have more loyally voted through Tory bills than Tory MPs? Practically speaking a LibDem MP is a Tory MP.
Since a significant proportion of Labour supporters in the constituency will be lending the LD their support anyway, why not formalise the arrangement so that we have some influence once they are elected?
Which is why we need PR. Desperately. Give people the opportunity to vote for someone they actually want and they might actually vote instead of not.
Exactly. Just look at the Scottish Parliamentary voting system - suddenly there is some point to being a Tory in Scotland. Though Tories still complain about the Scottish Parliament. I can't think why.
Mind you, the Scots do have the habit of voting for anyone else in UKGEs anyway, just to put two fingers up to the Tories. Those that live by the FPTP sword shall perish by the sword.
Amazingly the Tories aren't standing in a lot of wards in Islington, but I don't think Bunhill is one of them.
I had a full selection of local candidates, with the exception of the purple nasties, and I was pleased to see that all of them had addresses in the borough. I spent some time contemplating the choice, bearing in mind that I was also voting on behalf of my other half (whose only instruction was "not UKIP").
I had assumed your other half was Hungarian and would get the vote...
If the Greens really are set to beat the LibDems in today's Euro elections, then as well as taking votes off the Yellows directly, surely their only other meaningful source of support is from former Labour voters. If such a resurgence were to be seen over the coming months in terms of Westminster voting intentions, this could provide Miliband & Co. with a real headache.
This is why Mike is wrong to focus too much on the LD->Lab switchers. It is perfectly possible for Labour's support to drift downwards substantially even if most of those remain mesmerised by the shining beacon of Ed Miliband. A combination of a partial drift back to the LibDems, a drift to the Greens, a little direct Lab->Con switching, and WWC Labour voters going over to UKIP, plus some current supporters not actually voting, could easily take Labour down by several percentage points.
I'm not saying this will happen, but it is one plausible scenario. There's no particular reason to suppose that the current polling will remain steady. (Things could drift the other way, of course).
It probably has already happened. It doesn't accord exactly with the polling, but I've suggested before that these may not be wholly accurate.
Amazingly the Tories aren't standing in a lot of wards in Islington, but I don't think Bunhill is one of them.
I had a full selection of local candidates, with the exception of the purple nasties, and I was pleased to see that all of them had addresses in the borough. I spent some time contemplating the choice, bearing in mind that I was also voting on behalf of my other half (whose only instruction was "not UKIP").
I had assumed your other half was Hungarian and would get the vote...
My other half is northern Irish, has the vote, but is in Hungary at short notice so can't cast it.
Why do you think it will be a political earthquake if UKIP win the euros when everyone expects it to happen?
It will be an earthquake in that its hard to call a party with millions of voters either 'racist' or 'fruitcakes'.
I expect there is quite a high proportion who are
And I am sure there are not. I doubt teer is any higher a proportion of racists or fruitcakes in UKIP than there are in the Labour party or the Tories.
It's a question of *when*the comment was made.
Let's assume, for simplicity, that 4% of the electorate are "loonies, fruitcakes and racists" to coin a phrase.
Let's also assume, that, for the sake of argument, these are distributed Con/Lab/LD/UKIP 1%/1%/1%/1%
At the time the comments were made, UKIP was around 3%, so implying one-third of their voters were "loonies, fruitcakes or racists". You can - within the bounds of reasonable licence - claim that makes them a party of LFoR.
Now, at 15% (westminster) they are no more LFoR than the LibDems, although probably still less than the Tories and Labour.
Those nice people at Ladbrokes are offering odds of 4/1 against Harry's forecast of the LibDems winning 2 Euro seats. That's good enough for me buy DYOR!
Not a chance in hell of the Lib Dems getting a NW seat and not a SE, if they get a SE surely they get a NW - though the lack of a NW seat doesn't imply the lack of a SE seat !
All very interesting Pulpstar, so how many seats do you give the yellows?
1 in South East... 1 in South West, 1 in London maybe ?
So 3.... But I'm not betting on Lib Dem seats. A small bet on the Greens higher than Lib Dems though...
The SE England one is the best shot for the LibDems. Firstly, they will probably outpoll their national figure here (albeit only modestly). Secondly, there are 12 MEP slots up for grabs. Last time round, the Libs got two with 14.5% of the vote. Realistically, they would need to get sub 6% nationally, and therefore sub 7% in the SE to not pick up a seat there. (80% Libs get an MEP)
However, the SW is by no means as fertile a space. Although the Libs will probably get 10+% here, there are only 6 seats up for grabs. If the Greens beat the Libs in the SW, then it is highly unlikely they will get a seat here. (33% Libs)
London is a better shot for the Yellows. There are more seats, and there are local elections in a number of areas of (historic) LibDem strength. Nevertheless, they are quite likely to be outpolled by the Greens, and therefore you can't say more than a 50% shot.
The North-West is the final area where the Libs stand a chance. Again, there are a number of Yellow constituencies in the area. It's been less affected - probably - by EU migration, and therefore the siren song of UKIP is weaker. I'd also give this a 50% shot.
Outside those 4, there are really no likely wins for the LibDems. I think they'll be way off the pace in Wales, Scotland, and Eastern England.
Someone posted on here the other day the the Sutton LDs were worried their anti-UKIP (local) campaigning had backfired, and increased the UKIP vote.
@ecs100: The crude 'expected value' of your probabilities adds up to 2.13. If you're even vaguely in the right ballpark, Shadsy's 4/1 on 2 LibDem seats is a snip (I'm already on, for a modest stake).
Imagine you are the tory candidate running against ed davey in Kingston and Surbiton in 2015.
It's a tough ask as Davey has a big maj and solid local support, but the libs are not popular so you just might squeak it.
Would you rather run as
1. a tory, facing a well run lib dem campaign on one side and a loud and very active UKIP presence on the other, with their own candidate for the seat.
2. A Nigel Farage endorsed tory, with no UKIP opposition, and a big fat europhile green loving establishment lib dem for opposition.
Why not take it a step further - A Tory candidate endorsed by UKIP, English Democrats and other swivel-eyed loons vs Mr Davey endorsed by Labour, the Greens and assorted lefty fellow-travelers? Isn't that the ultimate destination for FPTP?
Except that the direction of travel has been the precise opposite for the last 40 years. At one time, we did have the kinds of coalitions you suggest, and they've since splintered greatly.
Voted this morning. The school where the polling station is, is being rebuilt, meaning voters had to make a detour round the back of the new building, then negotiate a maze of fencing to reach the original school entrance. I expect a lower than normal turnout. ;-)
I think Farage has a real problem brewing. This election has shown that he has artfully won votes across the economic and political spectrum. As soon as he starts alliances with one of the establishment parties he does two things. Firstly he ceases to be the anti-politics anti-establishment party, second he ceases to be a safe harbour for a chunk of his vote.
I know he has mentioned working with other parties to achieve his end. But remember that his end is to establish a major political party AND get out of Europe, not just the latter. So tactically his suggestion entices wavering Tories but strategically I'd be surprised if it came into being.
I agree - he'd be mad to start doing deals with other parties (or candidates). Doesn't mean he won't.
If the Greens really are set to beat the LibDems in today's Euro elections, then as well as taking votes off the Yellows directly, surely their only other meaningful source of support is from former Labour voters. If such a resurgence were to be seen over the coming months in terms of Westminster voting intentions, this could provide Miliband & Co. with a real headache.
In the 1989 Euros the Greens polled 14.5% of the votes the LD's (Actually SLD's) polled just polled just 6.2%.. Both UKIP and the greens do well in Euros because of clear identity.However in the year ahead expect their national vote share to fade vote shares to gradually fade as the more complex issue of a General election looms. would give UKIP maximum share of 2% for the GE and the greens 5%.
@ecs100: The crude 'expected value' of your probabilities adds up to 2.13. If you're even vaguely in the right ballpark, Shadsy's 4/1 on 2 LibDem seats is a snip (I'm already on, for a modest stake).
4-1 looks like a nice price. 1 South East Seat definitely, 1 London seat probably.
I reckon the NW will be tough (See Sale & Wythenshawe result...) SW 50-50 sounds about right...
Well that is polling two-thirds the way through. If I was a polling clerk today I would probably be wanting to slit my wrists by now unless I could something meaningful in between the handful of voters who bother to turn out.
I would never vote for a joint Conservative/UKIP candidate or government. I'd prefer to be on the right of the Liberal Democrats that sit in the Tories feeling more and more uncomfortable. If ever there are "Farage-endorsed" candidates, I would have to think very carefully.
I'd agree, provided my local LibDem was an Orange Booker
Well that is polling two-thirds the way through. If I was a polling clerk today I would probably be wanting to slit my wrists by now unless I could something meaningful in between the handful of voters who bother to turn out.
My friend is making his way through Michael Crichton's "Congo"
Comments
The tellers said that things had been really quiet. One of them commented they expect to be a lot busier in September. We may well be queuing for that.
In Scotland I expect the SNP to come top but I think they will struggle to pick up the extra seat. I think there is a reasonable chance of that going to UKIP although it is just possible the Greens will do better than expected. I really expect the Lib Dems to come 6th. Oblivion beckons.
"Turnout will be much higher than usual for either European or local council elections
Tories will do better in the local council elections than they might otherwise have done.
The working-class London boroughs could see a startling Ukip trend
the exit polls will be more accurate than usual"
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/janetdaley/100272641/my-completely-unscientific-prediction-of-todays-elections/
OK, I bet you're wondering who I voted for? Tory Boys for Council (3 x) and Fruitcake Party (Loony Wing!) for the Euros
Sorry, this just isn't correct. As technology gets better GDP will rise. You're arguing for more leisure time. We've got TV and the Internet. Seriously - how much more do we need???
"the exit polls will be more accurate than usual"
There aren't going to be any exit polls.
So 3.... But I'm not betting on Lib Dem seats. A small bet on the Greens higher than Lib Dems though...
Indeed. Just to reiterate, the winner of every national election for the last 100 years has been either the Conservatives or Labour (the last that wasn't was the December 1910 general election, won by the Liberals). That sequence could end today.
By contrast, the biggest election win by the Lib Dems (or any predecessor party of theirs), since WWII is definitional but is one of Devon County Council, Sheffield City Council, or the Somerset and North Devon Euroconstituency).
In European election terms at least, we have gone from a 2+1 system to a 2+2 to a 3+1 (or perhaps even a 3+0+2).
Six would be very impressive. Assume London, SE, Yorks, NW, West Mids, East Mids?
Very surprised however that you voted for the blues locally - I had thought from your posts over recent months that you had taken a sharp turn to the left.
Why do you think it will be a political earthquake if UKIP win the euros when everyone expects it to happen?
It would be a political earthquake if they took control of a number of councils.
The euros are used as way to express anger and protest and with a coalition government people are using UKIP as that vessel. A lot of people (me included) agree with the idea of getting some control of immigration and are voting UKIP purely for that reason as it has finally become ok to discuss this fact following years of being called racist for doing so. For this Mr F deserves a lot of credit. However in my mind UKIP have become a one trick pony who rely too heavily on one man and one policy. I have asked on here numerous times how they will implement immigration controls and what will happen to those "foreigners" who are already here. I cant find any answer to that question which is a surprise given this is basically their only policy.. I have a feeling Farage will take more of a back seat over the next year as he is exhausted and I just dont think UKIP have anyone else to develop and then sell some coherent policies for the GE. I also think that some of their candidates/councilors/MEPs are just a bit too expressive to survive in this twitter obsessed world. And to me they are just too angry, ask them a question or disagree with them and you get ranted at.
https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?hl=en-GB&gbv=2&ie=UTF-8&q=vibast+centre&fb=1&gl=uk&hq=vibast+centre&cid=2687876031625118408&ei=Sg5-U5PtNMjW0gXN2oDoDw&ved=0CB8QtgMwAA
Logically, if you improve the technology that you use to do something, such that it takes one person-hour rather than two person-hours then you have a choice whether to double the quantity of things that you produce, or reduce the number of hours it takes you to produce the same amount of stuff.
As you say: "we have TV and the internet now, how much more do we need???"
http://action.labour.org.uk/index.php/cost-of-living-contract/?source=14_05_01_CONTRACT&subsource=EdM_twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=EdM&utm_campaign=14_05_01_CONTRACT
Perhaps he could send a further tweet explaining the relevance of any of these to today's elections?
An earthquake is an earthquake regardless of predictions. A new party will have won a nationwide election for the first time in almost a century. The party of out will be first, while the party of in will be 4th or worse.
Mark Cherry, a district and county councillor in Banbury, Oxfordshire, said his account was hacked and he did not post the comment and picture.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-27516560
It will be an earthquake in that its hard to call a party with millions of voters either 'racist' or 'fruitcakes'.
If what I read from farage is correct in some constituencies there may not be a kipper to vote for.
Just a tory or labour guy who is 'Nigel Farage endorsed' (perhaps he or she will carry a pound sign as a kind of kitemark).
Of course, if you can't cut a deal with Nige as the sitting MP, he'll run his own candidate and send in the blue rinse harpies.
I know it's not quite that simplistic - but it's an interesting equivalence.
As an aside, any exit poll that does better than the 2010 effort is going some.
LibDems ......... 4/6
Greens ........... 11/10
It looks to me that they have called this wrongly, but do your own research!
Unfortunately, my max stake at ladbrokes is £1!
But I wonder if 2 or 3 themes are emerging:
1. UKIP has taken all the Con votes it can already and is now eating into the broader WWC church, incl Labour.
2. UKIP is getting monstered which: A. Firms up the die hard UKIP vote also: B. Puts some of their more moderate vote back to Dave. (and Dave can offer some red meat on immigration / EU to reconnect with these)
3. The real lefty vote may be resplitting if the Greens start being something other than a side note. And if the LDs recover a bit before May then Labour's 35% strategy is looking awfully risky.
Imagine you are the tory candidate running against ed davey in Kingston and Surbiton in 2015.
It's a tough ask as Davey has a big maj and solid local support, but the libs are not popular so you just might squeak it.
Would you rather run as
1. a tory, facing a well run lib dem campaign on one side and a loud and very active UKIP presence on the other, with their own candidate for the seat.
2. A Nigel Farage endorsed tory, with no UKIP opposition, and a big fat europhile green loving establishment lib dem for opposition.
Can you email me asap. Thanks. Usual address: arklebar@gmail.com
I think SeanT is to blame.
you are quite wrong on your musings.
Read the above. Are you sure about that?
Precisely my impression after I had listened to their leader being interviewed on Radio 5 Live explaining various aspects of their policies prior to the 2010 GE. I simply couldn't believe what I was hearing - prior to which I had considered the Greens to be a well intentioned lot if a little over-obsessed environmentally, but I had no idea they had such far left policies.
I see your point of course, but whoever endorsed Davey would want their pound of flesh - just as UKIP would have their price for not running candidates against tories.
The Rosettes help you to choose
We'll see how many they score out of two.
http://bit.ly/1m9v6QB
Firstly, a substantial minority of Tory supporters are nearer the LibDems in outlook than UKIP. By tying up with UKIP you shift those votes into the LibDem column. And even if you were starting at parity (which you're not in Kingston), you'd need to gain two Kippers for every one vote you lose to the LibDems. Furthermore, you'd probably reinvigorate tactical voting in an area where Labour voters are likely to return home in 2015.
Secondly, let's assume that a Nigel Farage endorsed candidate was elected. To whom does he owe his loyalties? The Conservative Party has no interest in creating competition to the right of itself. Any local candidate that attempted a tie-up or accepted an endorsement, would likely be thrown out of the Conservative Party sharpish.
Thirdly, this isn't win-win for UKIP either. This would reduce their overall national vote share, and it could scare off Labour-UKIP waverers (UKIPs just the same as the Tories...)
Jeez. I leave Thailand on the midday flight and 12 hours later they have a coup. #JustCantCopeWithoutMe"
https://twitter.com/thomasknox
If such a resurgence were to be seen over the coming months in terms of Westminster voting intentions, this could provide Miliband & Co. with a real headache.
I know he has mentioned working with other parties to achieve his end. But remember that his end is to establish a major political party AND get out of Europe, not just the latter. So tactically his suggestion entices wavering Tories but strategically I'd be surprised if it came into being.
I'm not saying this will happen, but it is one plausible scenario. There's no particular reason to suppose that the current polling will remain steady. (Things could drift the other way, of course).
Btw ...... you're not by any chance Graham Gooch or Shane Warne are you?
[I had that worded better in my head - but then I forgot.]
However, the SW is by no means as fertile a space. Although the Libs will probably get 10+% here, there are only 6 seats up for grabs. If the Greens beat the Libs in the SW, then it is highly unlikely they will get a seat here. (33% Libs)
London is a better shot for the Yellows. There are more seats, and there are local elections in a number of areas of (historic) LibDem strength. Nevertheless, they are quite likely to be outpolled by the Greens, and therefore you can't say more than a 50% shot.
The North-West is the final area where the Libs stand a chance. Again, there are a number of Yellow constituencies in the area. It's been less affected - probably - by EU migration, and therefore the siren song of UKIP is weaker. I'd also give this a 50% shot.
Outside those 4, there are really no likely wins for the LibDems. I think they'll be way off the pace in Wales, Scotland, and Eastern England.
Mind you, the Scots do have the habit of voting for anyone else in UKGEs anyway, just to put two fingers up to the Tories. Those that live by the FPTP sword shall perish by the sword.
The Scottish Parliamentary voting system is very funky. Not really 100% PR though. Very funky though.
Let's assume, for simplicity, that 4% of the electorate are "loonies, fruitcakes and racists" to coin a phrase.
Let's also assume, that, for the sake of argument, these are distributed Con/Lab/LD/UKIP 1%/1%/1%/1%
At the time the comments were made, UKIP was around 3%, so implying one-third of their voters were "loonies, fruitcakes or racists". You can - within the bounds of reasonable licence - claim that makes them a party of LFoR.
Now, at 15% (westminster) they are no more LFoR than the LibDems, although probably still less than the Tories and Labour.
I expect a lower than normal turnout. ;-)
#coalationistawin
Both UKIP and the greens do well in Euros because of clear identity.However in the year ahead expect their national vote share to fade vote shares to gradually fade as the more complex issue of a General election looms. would give UKIP maximum share of 2% for the GE and the greens 5%.
This is Scotland, we have different priorities than you Saxons.
I reckon the NW will be tough (See Sale & Wythenshawe result...) SW 50-50 sounds about right...
£5 added to the basket of Euro bets anyway