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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield: YouGov have had their say, now it is my turn
Since the start of the year, I have been tracking all the polls that have been published about the Euros and taking sage advice from Mike’s postings about polling companies not prompting for the Greens and taking in account all the discussions about what “An Independence from Europe” may have on UKIP, I have come to the following conclusion. It’s too darn close to call.
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Amroth Media, whose subsidiary, XPat Jobs advertises jobs online in 140 countries, has stepped in to right a UKIP wrong.
It has paid the Endurance Steel Orchestra its fee for playing, or at least attending, the Croydon Festival of UKIP diversity this week. It will no doubt save Winston Mckenzie the trouble of claiming a cheque is in the post.
See: http://bit.ly/1ksjqIw
Extremely cheap PR. £350 for nationwide publicity. Well done Amroth Media!
That would be quite surprising.
Has Journomummy been a very naughty girl?
"Only last week, BBC director of news and current affairs James Harding told a social media conference organised by the BBC Academy of Journalism and the New York Times that corporation staff should not tweet anything they would not say on air – where they are bound by strict BBC guidelines on impartiality."
People may have been put off, or they may have decided to keep schtum to the pollsters.
I've just lost my Ukip virginity. The hall was deserted except for eight officials looking bored and I gather there hasn't been an avalanche of voters in this part of Merseyside.
I could have chosen Green instead but ... Naaa ...better the 1950s than the 1750s.
I may return to the LDs for next year, but that depends on the smug and arrogant establishment. If they accuse me of being mentally deficient for voting Ukip, why I'll do it again and again (apologies to Lewis Carroll).
If Labour finished third, it is indeed a crisis for Ed. Labour should not be losing to UKIP and the Tories while they are the only major Westminster party in opposition, in an election which people routinely use to protest in and to send a message to the government.
If the Lib Dems finish fifth, behind the Greens, it's maybe not quite a crisis but it's very much a cause for concern. While it might not of itself be fatal to too many of their MPs, it would indicate that across great swathes of the country they're quite simply invisible and irrelevant.
Third for the Tories is to be expected, for much the reasons as per Labour above. The questions that matter are how far behind Labour and how big (or small) a share of the vote? Close to Labour would be ok; well back would be a problem. Likewise, mid-twenties wouldn't be a problem; teens most certainly would.
If Tories, UKIP and Labour are all around 20 MEPs then it will basically be a score draw and if the Tories retain 20 seats it will be a brilliant night for them on Sunday.
I am more interested in the council elections. If Labour falls far short of 500 gains then Ed is not heading for anywhere near Downing Street. If Tory losses are fewer than 200 I reckon that will be a good result. If the LibDems hold on to any councils and more than 50% of their councillors up for re-election that would be a good night. As for UKIP, short of them taking a council or becoming the official opposition anywhere, does it really matter if they win 1 or 2 seats in several councils if it gives them no more power than a local protest group on a council.
Compared to the 2009 results, your prediction implies the following vote share changes:
Conservative -4%
Labour +10%
UKIP +9%
Liberal Democrats -6%
Greens nc
Others (implied) -9%
I think there are few Others standing this time than in 2009, and the BNP have thankfully receded but I don't think the Others vote is going to more than halve. Indeed, if you take the SNP, PC and BNP out of your Others, then you are predicting that their share of the vote will fall from 8.1% in 2009 to less than 4% this time, including AIFE.
I reckon the odds and sods parties will still pick up a fair bit of the vote, probably mostly from the Labour share in your prediction.
It has finally stopped raining here in the 'SW Region', the sun is out, people are smiling and I'm expecting a 'surge' at the voting booth this afternoon which I'm sure will propel turn-out into the upper teens.
Anecdotally, I've never seen so little interest locally, with virtually no garden mounted placards or posters in windows. Perhaps it's just the lack of local election to accompany the Euros, but even the accumulated pile of party bumf on the door mat is appreciably down with nothing from the minor parties or even labour!. - tis all rather odd.
Also, voting for protest parties can be shorthand. I suspect many Green voters would be horrified by the eco-communism they actually stand for but want to register a concern that insufficient attention is being given to the environment.
My ARSE has decided to pull out of Europe after a 100% referendum of Mrs JackW indicated severe consequences should a full scale UK/Continental dalliance be contemplated.
They both stand for a rejection of the modern way of doing things and a reversion to a better time. They just disagree whether it should be the 1950s or the later stone age
On my facebook, the only Labour demographic I could see that was excited about today's vote were those putting up comments about keeping UKIP out. (Occasionally a blast against the BNP was included although without any real heart).
How strong the Labour euro vote is, seems to depend on how many anti-UKIP people there are. Makes a change from previous years where the main Labour motivation seems to have been anti-Tory.
What other countries are voting specifically today?
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/21/bristol-assistant-mayor-gus-hoyt-32000-pound-job-low-pay
This week the local rag has had stories on the Green Assistant Mayor which have made it to the national press. The guy also seems to have scored an own goal over his wage not to mention another little difficulty over purchase of former Council house.
Perhaps UKIP - Labour - Tory - Green - Lib Dem in order of votes, but with the Lib Dems still sending some MEPs to Brussells, and UKIP restricted to below 30%?
Given the mainstream attachment to 19th and 20th century technology it could be argued that the Greens are the party in favour of technological innovation.
*Techno-Greens*
In Germany, Merkel's CDU/CSU is around 38, SPD 27, greens around 10, Linke 8, AFD 7, FDP 3. Neo nazis of NDP will probably get a seat as 1% is the threshold.
In Italy, Renzi's PD is in front but Grillo's M5S seems to be closing the gap; it could be quite close, between 25 and 27 for both. Berlusconi will be behind, around 20.
In fact, I disagree that you "need to protest against something and/or for something more specific than just not one of the big 3". You don't. You can quite happily give two fingers to the political elite simply because you don't think they care about you / are listening / whatever. I know of people who voted BNP last time not because they supported Griffin but because they were fed up of feeling ignored and effectively wanted to shout 'boo!' via the ballot box.
My Friend list (~ 500 friends) vs total likes...
6 Labour (169326)
4 Con (179403)
3 Britain First (348153 !)
2 UKIP (151682)
2 Green (46998)
2 Lib Dems (95308)
The May 2009 MORI poll did put Labour on 18% of the vote, and that was in a relatively UKIP-free political landscape.
If you look at the detail of the opinion polls you see that while Labour has gained plenty of Lib Dem 2010 voters, their 2010 core vote has been eroded with votes lost to UKIP. The 2010 Lib Dem voters who switch to Labour are likely to be quickly disappointed - though if Miliband is forced into a Coalition they may always be able to blame the Lib Dems again!
Votes for minor parties can be very good signal-senders. If I want to express concern re the EU or immigration, voting UKIP is an effective way of doing so. If I hated the Iraq War and wanted to let my local Labour politician know about it, they can read the tea leaves that have been totted up in the RESPECT column. If I want to express concern about climate change, voting Green works.
I frequently vote for minor parties partly because I believe politicians who look at the results can be left in no doubt what concerns I was attempting to express, and what kind of thing might win my vote. On the other hand, I've never really been sure of the point of voting for Lib Dems as a "protest vote" - they're so wooly in their definition, it's pretty much a vote for NOTA.
Now there are usually several different signals I want to send, on those occasions I can't find a party platform and candidate I am happy to wholeheartedly endorse. It's not unreasonable for someone to have both environmental concerns (but be worried about the Greens' economic and European policy) while also being hostile to the EU (but be unhappy about much of the UKIP carnival). After weighing things up, you makes your cross and takes your choice. Someone torn between UKIP and the Greens doesn't suffer from some bizarre split personality - they just occupy a gap in the political market which a somewhat eurosceptic, environmentally-conscious and economically liberal party might occupy. (In fact in some European countries, there exist liberal/right-wing analogues of the Green party. And the Cameroon wing of the Tories isn't far off that hue of the political spectrum. It's just a minority position.)
Labour are anti-business and anti-wealth, the Lib Dems are duplicitous and their hearts are full of treachery, I don't like UKIP's new appeal to former BNP/EDL members/voters, I find that the Greens are just communists in sheep's (green) clothing and voting for any other party is a waste.
Preferably I would like a party to be economically laissez faire, fiscally conservative and socially liberal. None of the parties currently have those policies, though the Tories are closer than the rest. Bring on full PR so we can get proper representation of different views I say!
Wonder if it might affect the standard's prediction of a win for LAB here...
Environmental measures will improve through technology better without Greens trying to interfere.
And Greens support a reduction in personal freedom through the removal of individuals' cars.
(Guess one party I didn't vote for today).
I do like their bee friendly policies though, and the fact they are not determined to brick over the countryside.
Great fun while it lasted.
As for the two-fingers BNP vote, I'm sure that won them far more votes than any public affection for Nick Griffin. But in many ways it was a more wasted vote than one for RESPECT, or TUSC or the Greens or UKIP. It informed the major parties, particularly Labour, that they needed to do more to reconnect with the white working class vote, but it didn't suggest which political clothes to steal in order to do so.
* I'd say normally add that this is true for parties "out of government", but with the Coalition I think it's even true for the governing parties. At least in public, they haven't seriously commenced the work of policy differentiation yet.
Good - but you're called the, err, pirate party.
[with elements of radicalism (where does a positive view on crypto-currencies fall on an economic scale?!).]
Idiotic
Those nice people at Ladbrokes are offering odds of 4/1 against Harry's forecast of the LibDems winning 2 Euro seats.
That's good enough for me buy DYOR!
The best liked posts are those accusing labour of having betrayed the working class. (actually, betrayed is too weak a word).
Oh what a weeping and a wailing and a gnashing of teeth.....
If UKIP come top of the Euros in votes and seats it will cause a political earthquake, whichever side one is on politically.
If they don't, then it's back to the drawing board. However, the board will have changed too.
http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php
http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/
Who knew there was a tornado watch on the 14th of February.
You are correct Socrates. But this is the 21st C - Cornucopia - Liberals thinks outside the box.
They should probably be doing this coordination even now, since it's perfectly legal to be registered in multiple places but only legal to vote in one of them.
People my age bought the original Playstation. Trying to keep you youngies and oldies in balance is a real problem.
Teresa May has been called a bad word
http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-ryan-should-support-a-basic-income-2013-11
Basically you get rid of a whole bunch of micro-managing big-government programs. Hence: Meanwhile, Falkvinge's core argument is that: http://falkvinge.net/2013/08/31/more-thoughts-on-the-coming-swarm-economy/
Keeping GDP static [or at least not obsessing about increasing it endlessly] would not mean that there would be no profit and no technological innovation. It would just mean that the benefit of technological progress would be used to increase those things that are not measured by GDP - eg leisure time, unpaid creative work, reductions in harmful environmental side-effects.
Writing his first column for Paddy Power, Paul Scholes states that he believes Wayne Rooney is probably past his peak.
Hasn't England's No.1 player not long ago signed a five year contract extension with Man Utd worth £300,000 a week, equivalent to £78,000,000 (+ NIC) over its entire term?
Oh Dear!