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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-MORI finds support for staying in the EU at its highe

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  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:


    OK ... they seem to get an easier ride than Salmond gets over not having policies where they really need to have policies. But we are going to need a trade agreement with the EU and the EU are going to want unrestricted immigration in that agreement. The alternative of writing off exports which are "only" 13% of our economy is true fruitcakery.

    It is rather fruitcakery to think that even without an agreement on unrestricted migration we would be writing off 13% - or even 1% - of our economy. The EU will not stop trading with us simply because we tighten our immigration policy. They cannot afford to because of that huge trade imbalance in their favour. EU membership has not helped us in any meanignful way in terms of trade because the small gains we have made in terms of access to the single market (most of which we would have had anyway) have been lost by the restrictions put on wider trade.

    The suggestion that we could/would be writing off 13% of the economy was Socrates' not mine.

    Neither party can afford to stop trading with the other.

    "Small gains in terms of access to the single market..." it is highly likely that EU membership has effectively been running to stand still, i.e. that we would have made large losses without it.
    I disagree entirely. EU membership has held back rather than enhanced our trade and has certainly been the main driver of a huge trade deficit which is still increasing. The recent Civitas report very effectively spiked the whole idea that EU membership had been an economic benefit for the UK.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SophyRidgeSky: David Cameron has told Sky News he understands the Iraq Inquiry will be able to publish its (much delayed) report by the end of the year
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Simon Richards @simplysimontfa

    The relentless hate campaign against Ukip exceeds even the vile abuse to which Margaret Thatcher was subjected: the politics of the gutter

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Isam, without commenting on the interview (not interested enough to listen to it) I hope they don't go for Paxman Mark 2. Paxman was full of himself, more interested in catching people out and scalp-hunting than actually interviewing them. His 'interview' with the Jesus and Mo cartoonist was a new low, where he attacked the cartoonist for being 'offensive' and never once raised any point in favour of freedom of speech (not just in the interview but the piece beforehand, there was just one mention of that during the whole Jesus and Mo section).

    Not a Robinson fan as political editor but when he was stand-in Newsnight presenter I thought he did a much better job of chairing a discussion than the regulars, and was less full of himself and more measured than them.

    That's right. It's also the problem with the much-admired Andrew Neil IMO. If Paxman's successor doesn't feel the show is primarily about him or her, it'll be a great advance.

    But I don't get either the outraged Kippers feeling it was an abusive interview or the celebratory anti-Kippers saying it was a car crash. I've heard much less fair interviews (several of them by Paxman), and also some were the interviewee came apart far more than Farage did.

  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    UKIP look a good price at 13/5 to top the Yorkshire region in the euros at WH
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    edited May 2014
    isam said:

    Oh my word!

    This is fantastic!


    "Nigel Farage has just appeared on the James O’Brien show, and it’s one of the most amazing radio interviews I’ve ever heard.

    It started with the Ukip leader attempting to defend his party over charges of racism. It ended with his Communications Director Patrick O’Flynn interrupting the interview live on air and then, according to LBC staff, physically dragging him out of the studio off camera.

    What happened in between has effectively finished Nigel Farage’s political career. To understand why, you have to listen to the interview in its entirety. In particular, the moment when O’Brien pulls the Ukip leader into another attempt to defend his statement that people would rightly be alarmed if a group of Romanians moved next door."

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100271810/nigel-farage-has-just-had-his-nick-griffin-moment/

    Dan Hodges writes about Labour "with tribal loyalty and without reservation" and goes on to say in this blog that the interview has "effectively ended Nigel Farage's political career".

    No it hasn't, but it might box him in, if he's not careful. IMHO, UKIP had a chance to clean up at these euros and poll 33-35%. I think they've gone too hard, heavy and fast over the last few weeks and that's turned people off. Farage has allowed himself to get provoked as well. If he wants to win big he needs to make these points whilst sounding reasonable, measured and positive - and above all 'in control'.

    I *still* haven't decided who to vote for, but I have felt myself wobble over the last few days. I wonder if a few Home Counties Tories will wobble back to Conservative over the next week, despite the crass stupidity of useful idiots like D'Ancona. It'll be mitigated though by early postal votes in my opinion.

    I still can see a photo-finish between UKIP, Lab and Con. UKIP @25%, Lab@23% and Con at 21.5%.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    did a survey of people in our office giving them the euro ballot paper and asking them to vote UKIP to see how 'an independence from europe' would do- It got 2 votes out of 9!!
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    new thread
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    Stuart Hall cleared of rape charges

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-27441510

    Another successful day for the CPS.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    isam said:

    Not a spoof

    Tom Byrne ‏@_TomByrne_ 4m
    James O'Brian surely has to be a favourite to take over from Paxman after eviscerating Nigel Farage this morning. Outstanding stuff #ukip

    It is amazing how low the bar is are that one bloke does a bit of research and for once gives a politician a hard time.

    But then we only need to look at yesterdays story at the UK most media prominent Muslim media expert / lawyer / academic / relationship councillor / [insert other made up position] was exposed as nothing more than a former bank clerk from Winchester, but for past 2 years every media organisation have been booking him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    isam said:

    Not a spoof

    Tom Byrne ‏@_TomByrne_ 4m
    James O'Brian surely has to be a favourite to take over from Paxman after eviscerating Nigel Farage this morning. Outstanding stuff #ukip

    It is amazing how low the bar is are that one bloke does a bit of research and for once gives a politician a hard time.

    But then we only need to look at yesterdays story at the UK most media prominent Muslim media expert / lawyer / academic / relationship councillor / [insert other made up position] was exposed as nothing more than a former bank clerk from Winchester, but for past 2 years every media organisation have been booking him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    isam said:

    Not a spoof

    Tom Byrne ‏@_TomByrne_ 4m
    James O'Brian surely has to be a favourite to take over from Paxman after eviscerating Nigel Farage this morning. Outstanding stuff #ukip

    It is amazing how low the bar is are that one bloke does a bit of research and for once gives a politician a hard time.

    But then we only need to look at yesterdays story at the UK most media prominent Muslim media expert / lawyer / academic / relationship councillor / [insert other made up position] was exposed as nothing more than a former bank clerk from Winchester, but for past 2 years every media organisation have been booking him.
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