I'm not surprised there's been a temporary lift, with the lies and distortions being made by the establishment parties and unchecked by the media. However, I'm confident that over the course of a referendum campaign about it the British public would make the sensible choice to leave.
Wishful thinking.
Not really. Just look at the Clegg versus Farage debates. Clegg is one of the best debaters of the pro-EU side and he lost both debates, the second heavily. Equally, you can look at the discussion on PB whenever the issue comes up. The eurosceptics have a solid response to every argument the europhiles bring up. It's the area I find easiest to argue.
But one thing it does prove... the desperation to show everything bad for UKIP interferes with the rational thinking of usually cool headed posters on PB
Well this twitpic has certainly interfered with my rational thinking.
Follow the politicalscrapbook link for the full story:
If you only want to see the pic it is here: politicalscrapbook.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/kevin-odoherty-dualism-shoot.jpg
Kevin O’Doherty (pictured right above), who is standing for UKIP in Hastings where the party boasts one councillor, has already hit the headlines, having claimed on Facebook that “there is no such thing as a benign Muslim” and defending the vile racist who suggested that Lenny Henry should emigrate “to a black country”.
The rest is silence.
Another rotten apple who's slipped through the net. (Seems to be a regular occurrence).
What is this man supposed to have done?
I would have more sympathy with the question "who is this man supposed to have done?".
And UKIP cannot continually play the victim here.
Given the adverse press and the forensic scrutiny of the party by political opponents, selecting as a candidate for election a former porn star, who is emblazoned with Nazi tattoos and who is on record as making inflammatory racist remarks IS JUST PLAIN STUPID.
But one thing it does prove... the desperation to show everything bad for UKIP interferes with the rational thinking of usually cool headed posters on PB
Well this twitpic has certainly interfered with my rational thinking.
Follow the politicalscrapbook link for the full story:
If you only want to see the pic it is here: politicalscrapbook.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/kevin-odoherty-dualism-shoot.jpg
Kevin O’Doherty (pictured right above), who is standing for UKIP in Hastings where the party boasts one councillor, has already hit the headlines, having claimed on Facebook that “there is no such thing as a benign Muslim” and defending the vile racist who suggested that Lenny Henry should emigrate “to a black country”.
The rest is silence.
Another rotten apple who's slipped through the net. (Seems to be a regular occurrence).
What is this man supposed to have done?
I would have more sympathy with the question "who is this man supposed to have done?".
And UKIP cannot continually play the victim here. Given the adverse press and the forensic scrutiny of the party by political opponents, selecting as a candidate for election a former porn star, who is emblazoned with Nazi tattoos and who is on record as making inflammatory racist remarks IS JUST PLAIN STUPID.
I agree they need to raise their game, but there's clearly a huge double standard here, and a media that is out to get UKIP. In a way, UKIP are a victim of their success. The number of candidates they need to do justice to their poll rating is beyond their current capacity to do full checks on all of them.
But one thing it does prove... the desperation to show everything bad for UKIP interferes with the rational thinking of usually cool headed posters on PB
Well this twitpic has certainly interfered with my rational thinking.
Follow the politicalscrapbook link for the full story:
If you only want to see the pic it is here: politicalscrapbook.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/kevin-odoherty-dualism-shoot.jpg
Kevin O’Doherty (pictured right above), who is standing for UKIP in Hastings where the party boasts one councillor, has already hit the headlines, having claimed on Facebook that “there is no such thing as a benign Muslim” and defending the vile racist who suggested that Lenny Henry should emigrate “to a black country”.
The rest is silence.
Another rotten apple who's slipped through the net. (Seems to be a regular occurrence).
What is this man supposed to have done?
I would have more sympathy with the question "who is this man supposed to have done?".
And UKIP cannot continually play the victim here.
Given the adverse press and the forensic scrutiny of the party by political opponents, selecting as a candidate for election a former porn star, who is emblazoned with Nazi tattoos and who is on record as making inflammatory racist remarks IS JUST PLAIN STUPID.
But one thing it does prove... the desperation to show everything bad for UKIP interferes with the rational thinking of usually cool headed posters on PB
Well this twitpic has certainly interfered with my rational thinking.
Follow the politicalscrapbook link for the full story:
If you only want to see the pic it is here: politicalscrapbook.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/kevin-odoherty-dualism-shoot.jpg
Kevin O’Doherty (pictured right above), who is standing for UKIP in Hastings where the party boasts one councillor, has already hit the headlines, having claimed on Facebook that “there is no such thing as a benign Muslim” and defending the vile racist who suggested that Lenny Henry should emigrate “to a black country”.
The rest is silence.
Another rotten apple who's slipped through the net. (Seems to be a regular occurrence).
To add to the many Tory rotten apples who were caught in the net but then released back into the sea to continue as before. Do you really want me to list once again all those Tory councillors again who have been caught but who have remained in their positions with the blessing of the party.
Go for it.
UKIP bill themselves as being somehow 'different', and yet they appear to be much the same as all the others, including a leader who goes heavy on the expenses. I hope Nigel's got some decent AirCon to keeps those 'banks of computers' cool over the Summer.
Right my final contribution for the next few days.
With polling like this, you can see why Kippers don't want Dave to succeed and give us a referendum, and why Kippers are tirelessly working to ensure Ed M becomes PM next year and doesn't give us a referendum.
(Please remember Mr Bond's 9th commandment from yesterday)
Farage said something v. interesting on Andrew Neil's show last night.
He freely admitted that UKIP's tory supporters tend to head back to the mother ship when it comes to general elections.
But he added that ex labour supporters tend to be much more loyal to UKIP, once they have been converted. They don;'t go back to labour.
That is something I've suggested here in the past as at least a possibility - that the swingback from UKIP might not be symmetrical. It does make a certain sense, given the different motivations of Lab->UKIP swingers compared with Con->UKIP swingers.
We'll have to see whether it actually turns out like that in 2015.
I'm not surprised there's been a temporary lift, with the lies and distortions being made by the establishment parties and unchecked by the media. However, I'm confident that over the course of a referendum campaign about it the British public would make the sensible choice to leave.
Wishful thinking.
Not really. Just look at the Clegg versus Farage debates. Clegg is one of the best debaters of the pro-EU side and he lost both debates, the second heavily. Equally, you can look at the discussion on PB whenever the issue comes up. The eurosceptics have a solid response to every argument the europhiles bring up. It's the area I find easiest to argue.
Through the prism of your europhobic mind, perhaps.
The Evening Standard really has set out to attack UKIP. Probably catering to the ethinic PC lobby, which has so much influence in the capital. You can see the same influence in Sadiq Khan's attempt to turn the next London election into a minorities versus the whites contest.
Just had a leaflet from the LDs on the Euros - the first one of any of the parties to not even bother to name all the candidates on their party list, instead only mentioning the top candidate. Even the Greens and Labour included all the names in small print on their leaflets, and they'r even less likely to win a seat than the LDs hold onto theirs (in the SW) .
Stephen Fisher's latest projection of the 2015 GE outcome shows the following seats distribution:
Tory ....... 316 Labour ... 274 LibDem .... 30 Other ....... 30
Total ...... 650
On this basis the Tories are 10 seats short of gaining an overall majority, winning a net 10 seats more than they did in 2010, whereas Labour are shown as gaining 16 seats while the LibDems lose 27. Elsewhere therefore there is very little net overall movement.
Right my final contribution for the next few days.
With polling like this, you can see why Kippers don't want Dave to succeed and give us a referendum, and why Kippers are tirelessly working to ensure Ed M becomes PM next year and doesn't give us a referendum.
(Please remember Mr Bond's 9th commandment from yesterday)
BBC Politics @BBCPolitics · 2 mins Labour's new election campaign adviser, David Axelrod, misspells Ed Miliband's name in a tweet praising the party. http://bbc.in/1sV5sSk
On topic: The most notable thing about the graph is the fact that sentiment has hardly changed in 20 years. Given the severity of the Eurozone crisis, it's surprising that there wasn't more of a move towards Out in 2011-2012. I imagine the fall since then is because the Eurozone travails have been out of the news.
Given the latest dire data from the eurozone, it won't be long before Britain is the most europhile nation in the EU, given that we have avoided the calamity of the euro, the albatross of banking union, but still get the benefits of the single market.
Perhaps all the other members will eventually leave the EU, leaving us as the only state still inside. They'll have to move the Strasbourg parliament to Swindon.
The benefits of the single market over a free trade deal will be worth less and less as that dire economic data continues. Will it really be worth all those regulations over 95% of our economy so we can maintain the tiniest influence over the 5% exporting to this disastrous economy?
The Evening Standard really has set out to attack UKIP.
Some of the drivel the standard's 'journalists' come out with - badly written, vague, under researched, un balanced, repetitive, vacuous. It really is complete bilge.
So if the Scots vote YES, and go independent by 2016, they will be able to enjoy life as an oil rich Tartan Norway for about six hours, then go bankrupt by tea-time.
Sean your normally fully functional bullshit detector may be having a rest day. This is a watermelon report issued by a watermelon organisation making a watermelon recommendation - shock horror! Ignore it. (see my earlier post re 'how long we have left')
But, strangely, your point about Scotland may not be entirely wrong. Oil production in UK waters will fall. But only gradually. At some point though it will become uneconomic and stop. Gas, on the other hand has a WAY longer horizon. We haven't even started on shale, tight gas or CBM and conventional production in the southern/central north sea has a longer horizon than oil in the northern acreage. And the coal is very much there in large amounts - but we stopped mining it because deep mining is not cost competitive vs the USA or Australia. But it's there if economics demanded a return to coal mining. The thing is the oil is nearly all in Scotland and the gas and coal are nearly all in England.
Mwahahahahaha!!!!
Oil production (ie tax) revenues are set to fall to £3.2bn in 2016-17 from a £9bn average over the past five years. This would represent a 3.5% fall in tax revenues as a share of GDP for an independent Scotland (£9bn has been 1.6% of [onshore] tax revenues for the whole of the UK).
Needless to say for an independent Scotland the fiscal contraction required under such circumstances would be substantial.
Not that I am a member of the SNP, but Scotland has a population of circa 5 million. and the central belt sits on top of a massive coal and shale bed, a great deal of which has already been used for oil production in the past. This was using distillation rather than "fracking" certainly, but modern methods should be usable as well. So stop "gassing off" about resources?
We are always the first to cast our ballots, but the last to get our results. I remember staying up later than planned last time just to find out whether Nick Griffin had won a seat. Anyway, I'm casting my postal votes tomorrow (to be posted in a gold post box!), so not much time for another switch back home to Labour.
Voters like you might explain why SLab are staring at the possibility of a sub-20% result.
After you harping on about the freak Comres Scottish Euro VI subsample , it is no surprise that you have failed to post the Scottish sub sample from the latest Yougov Euro VI poll .
Lab 31 SNP 30 Con 10 UKIP 9 LD 7 and a larger sub sample too than Comres .
I hope 'STAY' or 'LEAVE' would be the choice on the referendum ballot. Much more objective than a 'YES' or 'NO' choice.
For example. 'Do you wish to stay in, or leave the United Kingdom?' STAY? LEAVE? would I suggest produce a higher % for the Union, than 'should Scotland become an Independent country?
Great point.
That is what the bright Wendy Alexander realised, but her dim boss Gordon Brown sabotaged her initiative. Pretty much the only occasion when SLab have seriously wrongfooted the SNP in recent history.
If Unionists had called the Scottish independence referendum (as Wendy was attempting to do), then they could have designed the entire poll: the timing, the legislative format, and cucially, the actual wording of the question.
The wording on the ballot paper is one of the aces held by the YES campaign. It is a beautiful question. A clear question. And it appeals to Scots who actually like and respect their fellow Scots. Which is most of them.
(But just to be clear, I do not agree that your wording would be any more "objective" than the actual wording. In fact, in terms of constitutional law, your wording tries to pretend that the Union with England Act never received royal assent.)
having got everything they wanted the nationalists can't reasonably cry foul.
Like that will stop them......
I'm still chuckling over that poll suggesting Salmond is a bigger threat to Independence than Cameron is to the Union.....
I'm always weary of polls that say X will make me more likely vote Y. People may say that, but in reality when push comes to shove, will it actually have that much of an effect?
However the fact it keeps Carlotta from frothing so much means it is a bonus. Best just leaving her happy that it feeds her great hatred of Salmond , SNP and SCotland and relieves her inferiority complex. She will be able to pretend she is English easier today.
Not a fan of polls anymore?
Is that since the gap between yes and no started widening again?
Perhaps people have started to think about "Prime Minister Salmond"?
your faith in polls is admirable. GMS had a call in today on the subject and surpringly most people cared not a jot about Salmond , they are voting YES for Scotland not the SNP. You just cannot seem to grasp that. NO's were hard to find.
Are you so desperate for a UKIP fall that you need to ask? Could there be less of a non-story? Interview doesn't happen. News at ten.
Not desperate, but as Farage wants to push an image as a stripped down unspun politician stories such as this might burst that image.
The thesaurus offers 'frantic, frenzied, hopeless, straining, aching' as alternatives for desperate. Pick whichever one you identify with.
Oh please, if someone markets themselves as authentic and then something comes along to suggest fakery asking the question isn't ridiculous. Sooner or later something is going to come along that will hurt him, that this makes him look like just another image obsessed politico might be it. You disagree, fair dos.
The most amazing thing about this thread is that nobody has mentioned that in their latest Westminster VI poll, IPSOS MORI has UKIP on 11% while most other pollsters have them on 15%, & some as high as 18%... is it a surprise they have the a low score for OUT?
Does nobody think of things like this? Did anyone study how to compare sources at school?
Extrapolating the ratio between UKIP & OUT on other polls would give OUT over 50%.. it would be foolish of me to take an extrapolation of the UKIP score from Survation and declare that a majority wants to leave the EU
@BobaFett wants to take the pollster that rank UKIP at 60% of what some others do and use it as a case for no referendum!
But one thing it does prove... the desperation to show everything bad for UKIP interferes with the rational thinking of usually cool headed posters on PB
Even if you put in a five point swing to rate UKIP as high as 16% (though why you would do that, I don't know), you'd still get In 49% Out 42%.
Why wouldnt you do that? Its nearer to the average than 11%
And anyway, you dont just add the same percentage to the OUT vote as you do the UKIP score, otherwise IPSOS MORI would have OUT on 11%
It is the ratio of UKIP to OUT that changes, so 11% to 16% wouldnt mean 37% to 42%, I think it would make OUT over 50%
Becasue if UKIP are scoring 16% it means a lot more people that arent voting UKIP are still wanting OUT
I can just about understand that you might think that the Out tally is understated because UKIP is understated (though you can't really pick opinion polls apart in that sort of way).
What I cannot understand is why you might think that IPSOS MORI have selected an unusually Europhile set of Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem supporters for this opinion poll.
We are always the first to cast our ballots, but the last to get our results. I remember staying up later than planned last time just to find out whether Nick Griffin had won a seat. Anyway, I'm casting my postal votes tomorrow (to be posted in a gold post box!), so not much time for another switch back home to Labour.
Voters like you might explain why SLab are staring at the possibility of a sub-20% result.
After you harping on about the freak Comres Scottish Euro VI subsample , it is no surprise that you have failed to post the Scottish sub sample from the latest Yougov Euro VI poll .
Lab 31 SNP 30 Con 10 UKIP 9 LD 7 and a larger sub sample too than Comres .
Survation have just done a Scotland-only poll. Their EUP VI was: SNP 37%, Lab 27%, Con 13%, LD 6%, UKIP 10%
Electoral Reform Society point out there are 24,000 people in the local elections who do not have a vote because their seat is uncontested.They make the point that since the STV system has been introduced in Scotland there have been no uncontested seats. What they do not say which will concern Pbeers is that there are no betting opportunities in uncontested seats either. http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/blog/24000-denied-a-vote
I agree they need to raise their game, but there's clearly a huge double standard here, and a media that is out to get UKIP. In a way, UKIP are a victim of their success. The number of candidates they need to do justice to their poll rating is beyond their current capacity to do full checks on all of them.
Is your view that News Corporation is not a commercial organisation, and is not working for the benefit of its shareholders?
I think the "5 years of fossil fuels" story can be put on the same pile as the Independent's story in 2000 that we would never see snow in the UK ever again. LOL
Electoral Reform Society point out there are 24,000 people in the local elections who do not have a vote because their seat is uncontested.They make the point that since the STV system has been introduced in Scotland there have been no uncontested seats. What they do not say which will concern Pbeers is that there are no betting opportunities in uncontested seats either. http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/blog/24000-denied-a-vote
That didn't stop a lot of money being taken on the next leader of the Labour party after Tony Blair.
I agree they need to raise their game, but there's clearly a huge double standard here, and a media that is out to get UKIP. In a way, UKIP are a victim of their success. The number of candidates they need to do justice to their poll rating is beyond their current capacity to do full checks on all of them.
Is your view that News Corporation is not a commercial organisation, and is not working for the benefit of its shareholders?
Or do UKIP stories sell newspapers?
I think the major newspapers have dual objectives: to sell newspapers and to spread their opinions. You can't deny this is the case with News Corp. Murdoch has openly admitted he tried to mobilise opinion in favour of the Iraq War, which was clearly not something that would sell more papers.
Just had a leaflet from the LDs on the Euros - the first one of any of the parties to not even bother to name all the candidates on their party list, instead only mentioning the top candidate. Even the Greens and Labour included all the names in small print on their leaflets, and they'r even less likely to win a seat than the LDs hold onto theirs (in the SW) .
On topic: The most notable thing about the graph is the fact that sentiment has hardly changed in 20 years. Given the severity of the Eurozone crisis, it's surprising that there wasn't more of a move towards Out in 2011-2012. I imagine the fall since then is because the Eurozone travails have been out of the news.
Given the latest dire data from the eurozone, it won't be long before Britain is the most europhile nation in the EU, given that we have avoided the calamity of the euro, the albatross of banking union, but still get the benefits of the single market.
Perhaps all the other members will eventually leave the EU, leaving us as the only state still inside. They'll have to move the Strasbourg parliament to Swindon.
The benefits of the single market over a free trade deal will be worth less and less as that dire economic data continues. Will it really be worth all those regulations over 95% of our economy so we can maintain the tiniest influence over the 5% exporting to this disastrous economy?
Where are you getting your 5%? 50% of our exports are to the EU: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/itis/international-trade-in-services/2011/sty-international-trade-in-services.html And a disastrous economy is still an economy and still has to import from us, or at least from somewhere. UKIP acknowledge this by saying we will join EFTA/EEA. What they don't acknowledge is that that entails signing up to EU regulation over everything, and unlimited immigration from the EU. I don't understand why this is never pointed out when Salmond is regularly crucified over analogous but less crucial flaws in his plans.
Are you so desperate for a UKIP fall that you need to ask? Could there be less of a non-story? Interview doesn't happen. News at ten.
Not desperate, but as Farage wants to push an image as a stripped down unspun politician stories such as this might burst that image.
The thesaurus offers 'frantic, frenzied, hopeless, straining, aching' as alternatives for desperate. Pick whichever one you identify with.
Oh please, if someone markets themselves as authentic and then something comes along to suggest fakery asking the question isn't ridiculous. Sooner or later something is going to come along that will hurt him, that this makes him look like just another image obsessed politico might be it. You disagree, fair dos.
Scraping the barrel. It's been well accepted that people need make-up to go on TV ever since the Nixon-Kennedy debate. The fact that Farage doesn't know how to put on make-up doesn't make him less authentic.
We are always the first to cast our ballots, but the last to get our results. I remember staying up later than planned last time just to find out whether Nick Griffin had won a seat. Anyway, I'm casting my postal votes tomorrow (to be posted in a gold post box!), so not much time for another switch back home to Labour.
Voters like you might explain why SLab are staring at the possibility of a sub-20% result.
After you harping on about the freak Comres Scottish Euro VI subsample , it is no surprise that you have failed to post the Scottish sub sample from the latest Yougov Euro VI poll .
Lab 31 SNP 30 Con 10 UKIP 9 LD 7 and a larger sub sample too than Comres .
Survation have just done a Scotland-only poll. Their EUP VI was: SNP 37%, Lab 27%, Con 13%, LD 6%, UKIP 10%
Yes , indeed , another poll which did not show Labour below the Conservatives in Scotland but Mr Dickson ignores it and concentrates on 1 Comres sub sample .
On topic: The most notable thing about the graph is the fact that sentiment has hardly changed in 20 years. Given the severity of the Eurozone crisis, it's surprising that there wasn't more of a move towards Out in 2011-2012. I imagine the fall since then is because the Eurozone travails have been out of the news.
Given the latest dire data from the eurozone, it won't be long before Britain is the most europhile nation in the EU, given that we have avoided the calamity of the euro, the albatross of banking union, but still get the benefits of the single market.
Perhaps all the other members will eventually leave the EU, leaving us as the only state still inside. They'll have to move the Strasbourg parliament to Swindon.
The benefits of the single market over a free trade deal will be worth less and less as that dire economic data continues. Will it really be worth all those regulations over 95% of our economy so we can maintain the tiniest influence over the 5% exporting to this disastrous economy?
Where are you getting your 5%? 50% of our exports are to the EU: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/itis/international-trade-in-services/2011/sty-international-trade-in-services.html And a disastrous economy is still an economy and still has to import from us, or at least from somewhere. UKIP acknowledge this by saying we will join EFTA/EEA. What they don't acknowledge is that that entails signing up to EU regulation over everything, and unlimited immigration from the EU. I don't understand why this is never pointed out when Salmond is regularly crucified over analogous but less crucial flaws in his plans.
EFTA membership is not the same as EEA membership and does not require free movement of people, or applying EU regulation to the domestic economy.
The most amazing thing about this thread is that nobody has mentioned that in their latest Westminster VI poll, IPSOS MORI has UKIP on 11% while most other pollsters have them on 15%, & some as high as 18%... is it a surprise they have the a low score for OUT?
Does nobody think of things like this? Did anyone study how to compare sources at school?
Extrapolating the ratio between UKIP & OUT on other polls would give OUT over 50%.. it would be foolish of me to take an extrapolation of the UKIP score from Survation and declare that a majority wants to leave the EU
@BobaFett wants to take the pollster that rank UKIP at 60% of what some others do and use it as a case for no referendum!
But one thing it does prove... the desperation to show everything bad for UKIP interferes with the rational thinking of usually cool headed posters on PB
Even if you put in a five point swing to rate UKIP as high as 16% (though why you would do that, I don't know), you'd still get In 49% Out 42%.
Why wouldnt you do that? Its nearer to the average than 11%
And anyway, you dont just add the same percentage to the OUT vote as you do the UKIP score, otherwise IPSOS MORI would have OUT on 11%
It is the ratio of UKIP to OUT that changes, so 11% to 16% wouldnt mean 37% to 42%, I think it would make OUT over 50%
Becasue if UKIP are scoring 16% it means a lot more people that arent voting UKIP are still wanting OUT
What I cannot understand is why you might think that IPSOS MORI have selected an unusually Europhile set of Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem supporters for this opinion poll.
1) SNP 37 (Ian Hudghton MEP) 2) Labour 27 (David Martin MEP) 3) SNP 18.5 (Alyn Smith MEP) 4) Lab 13.5 (Catherine Stihler MEP) 5) Con 13 (Ian Duncan) 6) SNP 12.3 (Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh)
The most amazing thing about this thread is that nobody has mentioned that in their latest Westminster VI poll, IPSOS MORI has UKIP on 11% while most other pollsters have them on 15%, & some as high as 18%... is it a surprise they have the a low score for OUT?
Does nobody think of things like this? Did anyone study how to compare sources at school?
Extrapolating the ratio between UKIP & OUT on other polls would give OUT over 50%.. it would be foolish of me to take an extrapolation of the UKIP score from Survation and declare that a majority wants to leave the EU
@BobaFett wants to take the pollster that rank UKIP at 60% of what some others do and use it as a case for no referendum!
But one thing it does prove... the desperation to show everything bad for UKIP interferes with the rational thinking of usually cool headed posters on PB
Even if you put in a five point swing to rate UKIP as high as 16% (though why you would do that, I don't know), you'd still get In 49% Out 42%.
Why wouldnt you do that? Its nearer to the average than 11%
And anyway, you dont just add the same percentage to the OUT vote as you do the UKIP score, otherwise IPSOS MORI would have OUT on 11%
It is the ratio of UKIP to OUT that changes, so 11% to 16% wouldnt mean 37% to 42%, I think it would make OUT over 50%
Becasue if UKIP are scoring 16% it means a lot more people that arent voting UKIP are still wanting OUT
I can just about understand that you might think that the Out tally is understated because UKIP is understated (though you can't really pick opinion polls apart in that sort of way).
What I cannot understand is why you might think that IPSOS MORI have selected an unusually Europhile set of Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem supporters for this opinion poll.
Of course you can pick opinion polls apart in that way! Are you honestly trying to say the fact that UKIP scored 11%, way below what they are with some other pollers, isnt correlated with the low OUT score?
On the second point, I agree with what yourself and @SouthamObserver said earlier, before anyone twigged that IPSOS_MORI were out of line with UKIP VI. The anti UKIP sentiment among followers of the old three parties is eveident on here, in the media and in the attitude of politicians, and no doubt people say they want to stay IN because they dont want to agree with UKIP on a UKIP voter, on anything at all
UKIP=Neil from the Ofiice, the rest are David Brent.
The fact that Farage doesn't know how to put on make-up doesn't make him less authentic.
The media is getting hammered because the Farage they paint isn;t the person people see on television.
Asked by Neill about his young defector last night there were none of the smears and character assassinations you get with other politicians.
Farage said he simply didn't know why she quit. He suggested peer pressure, but in the end he admitted he didn't know. Either he was genuinely saddened, or he is a very good actor.
On topic: The most notable thing about the graph is the fact that sentiment has hardly changed in 20 years. Given the severity of the Eurozone crisis, it's surprising that there wasn't more of a move towards Out in 2011-2012. I imagine the fall since then is because the Eurozone travails have been out of the news.
Given the latest dire data from the eurozone, it won't be long before Britain is the most europhile nation in the EU, given that we have avoided the calamity of the euro, the albatross of banking union, but still get the benefits of the single market.
Perhaps all the other members will eventually leave the EU, leaving us as the only state still inside. They'll have to move the Strasbourg parliament to Swindon.
The benefits of the single market over a free trade deal will be worth less and less as that dire economic data continues. Will it really be worth all those regulations over 95% of our economy so we can maintain the tiniest influence over the 5% exporting to this disastrous economy?
Where are you getting your 5%? 50% of our exports are to the EU: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/itis/international-trade-in-services/2011/sty-international-trade-in-services.html And a disastrous economy is still an economy and still has to import from us, or at least from somewhere. UKIP acknowledge this by saying we will join EFTA/EEA. What they don't acknowledge is that that entails signing up to EU regulation over everything, and unlimited immigration from the EU. I don't understand why this is never pointed out when Salmond is regularly crucified over analogous but less crucial flaws in his plans.
EFTA membership is not the same as EEA membership and does not require free movement of people, or applying EU regulation to the domestic economy.
Electoral Reform Society point out there are 24,000 people in the local elections who do not have a vote because their seat is uncontested.They make the point that since the STV system has been introduced in Scotland there have been no uncontested seats. What they do not say which will concern Pbeers is that there are no betting opportunities in uncontested seats either. http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/blog/24000-denied-a-vote
1) SNP 37 (Ian Hudghton MEP) 2) Labour 27 (David Martin MEP) 3) SNP 18.5 (Alyn Smith MEP) 4) Lab 13.5 (Catherine Stihler MEP) 5) Con 13 (Ian Duncan) 6) SNP 12.3 (Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh)
A name like Tasmina clearly belongs at the top of a list. I shall email the SNP and instruct them to amend it.
I can just about understand that you might think that the Out tally is understated because UKIP is understated (though you can't really pick opinion polls apart in that sort of way).
What I cannot understand is why you might think that IPSOS MORI have selected an unusually Europhile set of Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem supporters for this opinion poll.
Of course you can pick opinion polls apart in that way! Are you honestly trying to say the fact that UKIP scored 11%, way below what they are with some other pollers, isnt correlated with the low OUT score?
If a BOOer decides that he's going to hold his nose and support the Conservatives rather than UKIP, the UKIP score will be lower and the Conservative score will be higher. But the number of In supporters will not have increased. It's far from clear that there is any link between a relatively low UKIP tally and a high In tally. Voting intention for parties is not directly driven by this or any other single issue.
The margin in this poll is sufficiently wide that you really only have two choices: to accept that the poll evidences a clear lead for In (margin unclear, I grant you); or to decide that the whole poll is a rogue.
The second is possible. But I would counsel UKIP supporters to consider whether the poll might actually be showing something real.
I agree they need to raise their game, but there's clearly a huge double standard here, and a media that is out to get UKIP. In a way, UKIP are a victim of their success. The number of candidates they need to do justice to their poll rating is beyond their current capacity to do full checks on all of them.
Is your view that News Corporation is not a commercial organisation, and is not working for the benefit of its shareholders?
Or do UKIP stories sell newspapers?
I think the major newspapers have dual objectives: to sell newspapers and to spread their opinions. You can't deny this is the case with News Corp. Murdoch has openly admitted he tried to mobilise opinion in favour of the Iraq War, which was clearly not something that would sell more papers.
Remind me, is Mr "Up Yours Delors" Murdoch a noted Europhile?
And the Barclay Brothers; are they Europhiles?
Stories about UKIP sell papers. The very fact that we all link to them and complain about them demonstrates that this works. If the public didn't have an insatiable appetite for stories about UKIP candidates, the papers wouldn't print them.
And this will change. People will tire of them in time. There won't be so many shares or comments on the Telegraph page when there's another UKIP Candidate Bizarre Views story. And the editor will ask his reporters to find other stories readers care more about.
We are apparently due a 'dramatic' Welsh poll on Monday.
Tories the leading party of Wales? That would fit "dramatic"....
You do wonder how long it is going to take the Welsh to realise that Labour are just rubbish at running their lives. How ironic it would be if it was the failings of the Labour-run Welsh NHS - that totemic institution that Labour fills its PEB with - that finally drove the point home. It was intriguing that this was raised by a member of the QT audience from Wales a few weeks back - to considerable applause.
The more Primrose Hill Labour talk about the NHS, the worse it gets for them in Wales. That would be delicious...
Well, Hills are offering 18/1 on CON being the largest party in Wales. Are you tempted?
William Hill - Euros - Wales - Party With The Most Votes
My day is complete. I have just discovered there is a rock band called Tiberius' Minnows. Surely the best band name EVAH. And their songs are pretty good.
Some years ago my partner had the Archers on (I normally run a country mile away from them) where a fictitious group called "The Chinese bed socks" was mentioned. One day I'll find a use for that.
The fact that Farage doesn't know how to put on make-up doesn't make him less authentic.
The media is getting hammered because the Farage they paint isn;t the person people see on television.
Asked by Neill about his young defector last night there were none of the smears and character assassinations you get with other politicians.
Farage said he simply didn't know why she quit. He suggested peer pressure, but in the end he admitted he didn't know. Either he was genuinely saddened, or he is a very good actor.
The media, and posters on here, are showing themselves up with their attitude to UKIP
They are displaying the attitude that they WANT UKIP to show to immigrants. "Blame the newcomer" "we like things as they are" and when it turns out that UKIP are generally quite reasonable, at least when compared to the nation as a whole, they get angry. When UKIP point out the lop sidedness of the debate its "Dont be a victim"
It's the type of attitude I'd expect from from an 80s racist police officer to a black south londoner. One person is guilty of being a wrongun and everyone is viewed suspicously "Theyre probably all the same deep down"
I have been criticised for not wanting to repatriate immigrants UKIP have been criticised for not discriminating against immigrants (leaflet distribution) No one criticised the bricking of an MEP's window No one criticised shit being sent through the post
Euro prediction time: Kip 31%, Lab 25%, Con 22%, Grn 8%, LD 8%
Not bad, but you haven't left enough room for other others - 18.3% last time, you've only left 6%. The collapse of the BNP (6.3% last time) will have some effect, but not to the extent you've implied.
Seems a paradox that as support of UKIP goes up, support for leaving the EU goes down.
Very odd.
As UKIP become more successful in rallying the opponents of the EU, the prospect of actually leaving becomes more likely - this may have the effect of scaring some soft opponents of the EU into having a re-think.
I can just about understand that you might think that the Out tally is understated because UKIP is understated (though you can't really pick opinion polls apart in that sort of way).
What I cannot understand is why you might think that IPSOS MORI have selected an unusually Europhile set of Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem supporters for this opinion poll.
Of course you can pick opinion polls apart in that way! Are you honestly trying to say the fact that UKIP scored 11%, way below what they are with some other pollers, isnt correlated with the low OUT score?
If a BOOer decides that he's going to hold his nose and support the Conservatives rather than UKIP, the UKIP score will be lower and the Conservative score will be higher. But the number of In supporters will not have increased. It's far from clear that there is any link between a relatively low UKIP tally and a high In tally. Voting intention for parties is not directly driven by this or any other single issue.
The margin in this poll is sufficiently wide that you really only have two choices: to accept that the poll evidences a clear lead for In (margin unclear, I grant you); or to decide that the whole poll is a rogue.
The second is possible. But I would counsel UKIP supporters to consider whether the poll might actually be showing something real.
We are betting men, I will bet you £250 at EVS that the next EU IN or OUT poll from a pollster other than IPSOS-MORI has a higher OUT score?
David Cameron has congratulated Modi and welcomed the new BJP government. I wonder what Labour will do, there is a lot of anti-Modi sentiment among Muslim communities in the UK. If Modi comes to the UK, and as DC I would try and get him over, Labour would be in a bind, either ignore a world leader and make any future ties with him difficult should they win or meet with him and anger their core Muslim voter base. Cammo should be extending an invite for a full state visit of Modi ASAP, it would help Modi and it would help the Cons.
On topic: The most notable thing about the graph is the fact that sentiment has hardly changed in 20 years. Given the severity of the Eurozone crisis, it's surprising that there wasn't more of a move towards Out in 2011-2012. I imagine the fall since then is because the Eurozone travails have been out of the news.
Given the latest dire data from the eurozone, it won't be long before Britain is the most europhile nation in the EU, given that we have avoided the calamity of the euro, the albatross of banking union, but still get the benefits of the single market.
Perhaps all the other members will eventually leave the EU, leaving us as the only state still inside. They'll have to move the Strasbourg parliament to Swindon.
The benefits of the single market over a free trade deal will be worth less and less as that dire economic data continues. Will it really be worth all those regulations over 95% of our economy so we can maintain the tiniest influence over the 5% exporting to this disastrous economy?
Where are you getting your 5%? 50% of our exports are to the EU: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/itis/international-trade-in-services/2011/sty-international-trade-in-services.html And a disastrous economy is still an economy and still has to import from us, or at least from somewhere. UKIP acknowledge this by saying we will join EFTA/EEA. What they don't acknowledge is that that entails signing up to EU regulation over everything, and unlimited immigration from the EU. I don't understand why this is never pointed out when Salmond is regularly crucified over analogous but less crucial flaws in his plans.
1) Your numbers are from three years ago, while the rest of the world and the UK economy has grown and the Eurozone has continued to flat line
2) The vast majority of the economy is domestic, with exports only a fraction. Currently, I think right now it's about 13% of our economy that are exports to the EU, but I was hypothesising it falling further.
3) Even if we were in the EEA, there is a lot less regulation there than in the EU and free movement only applies to those that get jobs.
4) That's all moot anyway, as UKIP haven't said we will join the EEA long term. They've said it will be a holding position before we negotiate a bilateral deal.
Farage said something v. interesting on Andrew Neil's show last night.
He freely admitted that UKIP's tory supporters tend to head back to the mother ship when it comes to general elections.
But he added that ex labour supporters tend to be much more loyal to UKIP, once they have been converted. They don;'t go back to labour.
That is something I've suggested here in the past as at least a possibility - that the swingback from UKIP might not be symmetrical. It does make a certain sense, given the different motivations of Lab->UKIP swingers compared with Con->UKIP swingers.
We'll have to see whether it actually turns out like that in 2015.
It does appear to have happened that way last year, when the UKIP local election surge dissipated.
There does appear to be a risk that the smug people who tend to run Labour campaigns have a simplistic interpretation of UKIP hurting the Tories, and so may overlook this possibility.
I can just about understand that you might think that the Out tally is understated because UKIP is understated (though you can't really pick opinion polls apart in that sort of way).
What I cannot understand is why you might think that IPSOS MORI have selected an unusually Europhile set of Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem supporters for this opinion poll.
Of course you can pick opinion polls apart in that way! Are you honestly trying to say the fact that UKIP scored 11%, way below what they are with some other pollers, isnt correlated with the low OUT score?
If a BOOer decides that he's going to hold his nose and support the Conservatives rather than UKIP, the UKIP score will be lower and the Conservative score will be higher. But the number of In supporters will not have increased. It's far from clear that there is any link between a relatively low UKIP tally and a high In tally. Voting intention for parties is not directly driven by this or any other single issue.
The margin in this poll is sufficiently wide that you really only have two choices: to accept that the poll evidences a clear lead for In (margin unclear, I grant you); or to decide that the whole poll is a rogue.
The second is possible. But I would counsel UKIP supporters to consider whether the poll might actually be showing something real.
We are betting men, I will bet you £250 at EVS that the next EU IN or OUT poll from a pollster other than IPSOS-MORI has a higher OUT score?
Yay or Nay?
Certainly not. This poll may indeed show the lead on the high side (quite apart from anything else, ISPOS-MORI produces very bouncy results by its methodology). What you're ignoring is that this poll shows a clear lead. The exact figure is much less important.
I'll happily bet at evens that the next non-IPSOS MORI poll shows a lead for In.
Euro prediction time: Kip 31%, Lab 25%, Con 22%, Grn 8%, LD 8%
Not bad, but you haven't left enough room for other others - 18.3% last time, you've only left 6%. The collapse of the BNP (6.3% last time) will have some effect, but not to the extent you've implied.
Agreed. I'd probably guess Kip 27%, Lab 24%, Con 21%, LD 8%, Grn 6%. Far from certain though.
UKIP TO WIN A SCOTTISH SEAT is tightening at Ladbrokes.
Oddly, Shadsy has not correspondingly adjusted either his SCON or his SLD prices. Does this mean that Shadsy thinks the potential UKIP seat may come from the 2 current SLab MEPs?
Scottish Euro prices at Ladbrokes are:
Conservatives to win a seat 1/4 Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1
UKIP to win a seat 6/4 (from 2/1) UKIP to win 0 seats 1/2 (from 1/3)
Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1 Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10
I think the "5 years of fossil fuels" story can be put on the same pile as the Independent's story in 2000 that we would never see snow in the UK ever again. LOL
Why would you want to keep it?
It's one for filing in the circular filing cabinet.
I can just about understand that you might think that the Out tally is understated because UKIP is understated (though you can't really pick opinion polls apart in that sort of way).
What I cannot understand is why you might think that IPSOS MORI have selected an unusually Europhile set of Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem supporters for this opinion poll.
Of course you can pick opinion polls apart in that way! Are you honestly trying to say the fact that UKIP scored 11%, way below what they are with some other pollers, isnt correlated with the low OUT score?
If a BOOer decides that he's going to hold his nose and support the Conservatives rather than UKIP, the UKIP score will be lower and the Conservative score will be higher. But the number of In supporters will not have increased. It's far from clear that there is any link between a relatively low UKIP tally and a high In tally. Voting intention for parties is not directly driven by this or any other single issue.
The margin in this poll is sufficiently wide that you really only have two choices: to accept that the poll evidences a clear lead for In (margin unclear, I grant you); or to decide that the whole poll is a rogue.
The second is possible. But I would counsel UKIP supporters to consider whether the poll might actually be showing something real.
We are betting men, I will bet you £250 at EVS that the next EU IN or OUT poll from a pollster other than IPSOS-MORI has a higher OUT score?
Yay or Nay?
Certainly not. This poll may indeed show the lead on the high side (quite apart from anything else, ISPOS-MORI produces very bouncy results by its methodology). What you're ignoring is that this poll shows a clear lead. The exact figure is much less important.
I'll happily bet at evens that the next non-IPSOS MORI poll shows a lead for In.
You Gov poll far more regularly than anyone else and they have
I can just about understand that you might think that the Out tally is understated because UKIP is understated (though you can't really pick opinion polls apart in that sort of way).
What I cannot understand is why you might think that IPSOS MORI have selected an unusually Europhile set of Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem supporters for this opinion poll.
Of course you can pick opinion polls apart in that way! Are you honestly trying to say the fact that UKIP scored 11%, way below what they are with some other pollers, isnt correlated with the low OUT score?
If a BOOer decides that he's going to hold his nose and support the Conservatives rather than UKIP, the UKIP score will be lower and the Conservative score will be higher. But the number of In supporters will not have increased. It's far from clear that there is any link between a relatively low UKIP tally and a high In tally. Voting intention for parties is not directly driven by this or any other single issue.
The margin in this poll is sufficiently wide that you really only have two choices: to accept that the poll evidences a clear lead for In (margin unclear, I grant you); or to decide that the whole poll is a rogue.
The second is possible. But I would counsel UKIP supporters to consider whether the poll might actually be showing something real.
We are betting men, I will bet you £250 at EVS that the next EU IN or OUT poll from a pollster other than IPSOS-MORI has a higher OUT score?
Yay or Nay?
Certainly not. This poll may indeed show the lead on the high side (quite apart from anything else, ISPOS-MORI produces very bouncy results by its methodology). What you're ignoring is that this poll shows a clear lead. The exact figure is much less important.
I'll happily bet at evens that the next non-IPSOS MORI poll shows a lead for In.
You Gov poll far more regularly than anyone else and they hav
RN - that suggests that the polls are all underestimating 'other others'. Perhaps no party will get over 30% again?
Yes, I'm sure they are underestimating the fringe parties. Last time the English Democrats got 1.9%, the Christian People's Alliance 1.7%, Socialist Labour 1.1%, No2EU 1.0%, and various odds and sods half a percent each. Also the Nats got nearly 3% between them. This time around there are the usual array of fringe parties, plus UKIP splittists, and between them and the Nats the votes will add up - I'd have thought to at least 10%, very probably more. [All GB figures of course, excluding NI]
I can just about understand that you might think that the Out tally is understated because UKIP is understated (though you can't really pick opinion polls apart in that sort of way).
What I cannot understand is why you might think that IPSOS MORI have selected an unusually Europhile set of Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem supporters for this opinion poll.
Of course you can pick opinion polls apart in that way! Are you honestly trying to say the fact that UKIP scored 11%, way below what they are with some other pollers, isnt correlated with the low OUT score?
The margin in this poll is sufficiently wide that you really only have two choices: to accept that the poll evidences a clear lead for In (margin unclear, I grant you); or to decide that the whole poll is a rogue.
The second is possible. But I would counsel UKIP supporters to consider whether the poll might actually be showing something real.
We are betting men, I will bet you £250 at EVS that the next EU IN or OUT poll from a pollster other than IPSOS-MORI has a higher OUT score?
Yay or Nay?
Certainly not. This poll may indeed show the lead on the high side (quite apart from anything else, ISPOS-MORI produces very bouncy results by its methodology). What you're ignoring is that this poll shows a clear lead. The exact figure is much less important.
I'll happily bet at evens that the next non-IPSOS MORI poll shows a lead for In.
You Gov poll far more regularly than anyone else and they hav
We're getting dangerously close to the point where you declare only certain pollsters UKIP-approved.
It is not arguable that some pollers are wildly out with the UKIP score.. they have a 9-10 point spread on 10-20% of the vote... it is terrible.. far too wide a spread
Like quoting total goals in a football match at 1.5-3.5
But I am not saying that the low scores are wrong and the high are right. I bet for a living, I want to know the truth, not what suits me.
All I would say is that UKIP have always beaten the polling in actual elections in the last 18 months or so
@AlexiMostrous: Apparently Nigel Farage doesn't mind his wife speaking German - so long as she doesn't do it "on a train". (Interview with LBC @mrjamesob)
If you are bored with yet another morning's discussion on UKIP why not spend 15 minutes reading this, it really is very good and in many ways very funny:
RN - that suggests that the polls are all underestimating 'other others'. Perhaps no party will get over 30% again?
Yes, I'm sure they are underestimating the fringe parties. Last time the English Democrats got 1.9%, the Christian People's Alliance 1.7%, Socialist Labour 1.1%, No2EU 1.0%, and various odds and sods half a percent each. Also the Nats got nearly 3% between them. This time around there are the usual array of fringe parties, plus UKIP splittists, and between them and the Nats the votes will add up - I'd have thought to at least 10%, very probably more. [All GB figures of course, excluding NI]
Last time the final polls underestimated the Oths(including Greens) by 2%.
At the moment they seem to be on 13.5% in the polls.
On topic: The most notable thing about the graph is the fact that sentiment has hardly changed in 20 years. Given the severity of the Eurozone crisis, it's surprising that there wasn't more of a move towards Out in 2011-2012. I imagine the fall since then is because the Eurozone travails have been out of the news.
Given the latest dire data from the eurozone, it won't be long before Britain is the most europhile nation in the EU, given that we have avoided the calamity of the euro, the albatross of banking union, but still get the benefits of the single market.
Perhaps all the other members will eventually leave the EU, leaving us as the only state still inside. They'll have to move the Strasbourg parliament to Swindon.
The benefits of the single market over a free trade deal will be worth less and less as that dire economic data continues. Will it really be worth all those regulations over 95% of our economy so we can maintain the tiniest influence over the 5% exporting to this disastrous economy?
Where are you getting your 5%? 50% of our exports are to the EU: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/itis/international-trade-in-services/2011/sty-international-trade-in-services.html And a disastrous economy is still an economy and still has to import from us, or at least from somewhere. UKIP acknowledge this by saying we will join EFTA/EEA. What they don't acknowledge is that that entails signing up to EU regulation over everything, and unlimited immigration from the EU. I don't understand why this is never pointed out when Salmond is regularly crucified over analogous but less crucial flaws in his plans.
EFTA membership is not the same as EEA membership and does not require free movement of people, or applying EU regulation to the domestic economy.
It is not arguable that some pollers are wildly out with the UKIP score.. they have a 9-10 point spread on 10-20% of the vote... it is terrible.. far too wide a spread
Like quoting total goals in a football match at 1.5-3.5
But I am not saying that the low scores are wrong and the high are right. I bet for a living, I want to know the truth, not what suits me.
All I would say is that UKIP have always beaten the polling in actual elections in the last 18 months or so
You're confusing UKIP support with Out support. Even if UKIP are polling 20%, the bulk of any hypothetical majority for Out will come from non-UKIP voters. Given what UKIP voters say motivate them to vote for UKIP, which is not especially the EU, underpolling UKIP supporters (even if it is taking place) will not necessarily mean that the figure for In/Out is wrong.
I appreciate that you don't like this poll. That doesn't mean it's wrong.
RN - that suggests that the polls are all underestimating 'other others'. Perhaps no party will get over 30% again?
Yes, I'm sure they are underestimating the fringe parties. Last time the English Democrats got 1.9%, the Christian People's Alliance 1.7%, Socialist Labour 1.1%, No2EU 1.0%, and various odds and sods half a percent each. Also the Nats got nearly 3% between them. This time around there are the usual array of fringe parties, plus UKIP splittists, and between them and the Nats the votes will add up - I'd have thought to at least 10%, very probably more. [All GB figures of course, excluding NI]
Perhaps the death of iSam's 26.5 line for UKIP has been wildly exaggerated.
RN - that suggests that the polls are all underestimating 'other others'. Perhaps no party will get over 30% again?
Yes, I'm sure they are underestimating the fringe parties. Last time the English Democrats got 1.9%, the Christian People's Alliance 1.7%, Socialist Labour 1.1%, No2EU 1.0%, and various odds and sods half a percent each. Also the Nats got nearly 3% between them. This time around there are the usual array of fringe parties, plus UKIP splittists, and between them and the Nats the votes will add up - I'd have thought to at least 10%, very probably more. [All GB figures of course, excluding NI]
Last time the final polls underestimated the Oths(including Greens) by 2%.
At the moment they seem to be on 13.5% in the polls.
I've been tempted myself, when looking at a Euro ballot paper, to think "this isn't a proper election, why don't I choose the 'Mothers Against Child Obesity' candidate for a giggle". I've so far resisted, but I wonder if 2-3% do give in to the urge on the day.
I've been tempted myself, when looking at a Euro ballot paper, to think "this isn't a proper election, why don't I choose the 'Mothers Against Child Obesity' candidate for a giggle". I've so far resisted, but I wonder if 2-3% do give in to the urge on the day.
Certainly on a forced choice they sound a better option than Fathers In Favour Of Child Obesity.
When we continually complain about anodyne, peas-in-a-pod politicians, it seems odd when the media then go for anyone with a back story.
Most normal people have a history has good and bad in it. Wrong decisions, immaturity and poor judgement - they are a normal part of growing up. The old phrase, "it's not where you've been, it's where you're going to that's important." is true.
Let's have more candidates with Nazi or Commie pasts, silly tweets when "in their cups" that they regret now. Why can't a former porn star be the next female PM? Or Sean T as Minister for Families?
Journalists tend to have the most checkered history of all, yet they're the first on their high horse.
Comments
And UKIP cannot continually play the victim here.
Given the adverse press and the forensic scrutiny of the party by political opponents, selecting as a candidate for election a former porn star, who is emblazoned with Nazi tattoos and who is on record as making inflammatory racist remarks IS JUST PLAIN STUPID.
He freely admitted that UKIP's tory supporters tend to head back to the mother ship when it comes to general elections.
But he added that ex labour supporters tend to be much more loyal to UKIP, once they have been converted. They don;'t go back to labour.
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/
With polling like this, you can see why Kippers don't want Dave to succeed and give us a referendum, and why Kippers are tirelessly working to ensure Ed M becomes PM next year and doesn't give us a referendum.
(Please remember Mr Bond's 9th commandment from yesterday)
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/286691/#Comment_286691
We'll have to see whether it actually turns out like that in 2015.
Tory ....... 316
Labour ... 274
LibDem .... 30
Other ....... 30
Total ...... 650
On this basis the Tories are 10 seats short of gaining an overall majority, winning a net 10 seats more than they did in 2010, whereas Labour are shown as gaining 16 seats while the LibDems lose 27. Elsewhere therefore there is very little net overall movement.
Good luck with the best mans speech
Labour's new election campaign adviser, David Axelrod, misspells Ed Miliband's name in a tweet praising the party. http://bbc.in/1sV5sSk
Good start Mr Axelrose.....
Some of the drivel the standard's 'journalists' come out with - badly written, vague, under researched, un balanced, repetitive, vacuous. It really is complete bilge.
Needless to say for an independent Scotland the fiscal contraction required under such circumstances would be substantial.
"Stadia"? Correct maybe but needs a slap.
Not that I am a member of the SNP, but Scotland has a population of circa 5 million. and the central belt sits on top of a massive coal and shale bed, a great deal of which has already been used for oil production in the past.
This was using distillation rather than "fracking" certainly, but modern methods should be usable as well.
So stop "gassing off" about resources?
Lab 31 SNP 30 Con 10 UKIP 9 LD 7 and a larger sub sample too than Comres .
What I cannot understand is why you might think that IPSOS MORI have selected an unusually Europhile set of Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem supporters for this opinion poll.
What they do not say which will concern Pbeers is that there are no betting opportunities in uncontested seats either.
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/blog/24000-denied-a-vote
Or do UKIP stories sell newspapers?
And a disastrous economy is still an economy and still has to import from us, or at least from somewhere. UKIP acknowledge this by saying we will join EFTA/EEA. What they don't acknowledge is that that entails signing up to EU regulation over everything, and unlimited immigration from the EU. I don't understand why this is never pointed out when Salmond is regularly crucified over analogous but less crucial flaws in his plans.
95% confidence limits on Con vote share have (as you would expect) fallen a little, from 8.1% to 8%.
Still a lot of uncertainty: those error bars are the key thing to watch.
http://www.iea.org.uk/publications/research/the-iea-brexit-prize-a-blueprint-for-britain-openness-not-isolation
Oops 42% prob of majority, not 42% in the polls!
1) SNP 37 (Ian Hudghton MEP)
2) Labour 27 (David Martin MEP)
3) SNP 18.5 (Alyn Smith MEP)
4) Lab 13.5 (Catherine Stihler MEP)
5) Con 13 (Ian Duncan)
6) SNP 12.3 (Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh)
On the second point, I agree with what yourself and @SouthamObserver said earlier, before anyone twigged that IPSOS_MORI were out of line with UKIP VI. The anti UKIP sentiment among followers of the old three parties is eveident on here, in the media and in the attitude of politicians, and no doubt people say they want to stay IN because they dont want to agree with UKIP on a UKIP voter, on anything at all
UKIP=Neil from the Ofiice, the rest are David Brent.
The media is getting hammered because the Farage they paint isn;t the person people see on television.
Asked by Neill about his young defector last night there were none of the smears and character assassinations you get with other politicians.
Farage said he simply didn't know why she quit. He suggested peer pressure, but in the end he admitted he didn't know. Either he was genuinely saddened, or he is a very good actor.
The margin in this poll is sufficiently wide that you really only have two choices: to accept that the poll evidences a clear lead for In (margin unclear, I grant you); or to decide that the whole poll is a rogue.
The second is possible. But I would counsel UKIP supporters to consider whether the poll might actually be showing something real.
And the Barclay Brothers; are they Europhiles?
Stories about UKIP sell papers. The very fact that we all link to them and complain about them demonstrates that this works. If the public didn't have an insatiable appetite for stories about UKIP candidates, the papers wouldn't print them.
And this will change. People will tire of them in time. There won't be so many shares or comments on the Telegraph page when there's another UKIP Candidate Bizarre Views story. And the editor will ask his reporters to find other stories readers care more about.
William Hill - Euros - Wales - Party With The Most Votes
Lab 1/20
UKIP 11/1
Con 18/1
PC 25/1
LD 150/1
They are displaying the attitude that they WANT UKIP to show to immigrants. "Blame the newcomer" "we like things as they are" and when it turns out that UKIP are generally quite reasonable, at least when compared to the nation as a whole, they get angry. When UKIP point out the lop sidedness of the debate its "Dont be a victim"
It's the type of attitude I'd expect from from an 80s racist police officer to a black south londoner. One person is guilty of being a wrongun and everyone is viewed suspicously "Theyre probably all the same deep down"
I have been criticised for not wanting to repatriate immigrants
UKIP have been criticised for not discriminating against immigrants (leaflet distribution)
No one criticised the bricking of an MEP's window
No one criticised shit being sent through the post
It is crazy
Yay or Nay?
UKIP/Con/Lab
7/1 Ladbrokes
What do you think? Smoothed polling since January, runs from right to left.
www.titanictown.plus.com/euros2014.PNG
The trajectory looks favourable...
Only the last poll (YouGov) showing Labour in the lead (could be a rogue), causes the lines to diverge again.
Remember also, Labour underperformed its final polls by 2% in 2009...
2) The vast majority of the economy is domestic, with exports only a fraction. Currently, I think right now it's about 13% of our economy that are exports to the EU, but I was hypothesising it falling further.
3) Even if we were in the EEA, there is a lot less regulation there than in the EU and free movement only applies to those that get jobs.
4) That's all moot anyway, as UKIP haven't said we will join the EEA long term. They've said it will be a holding position before we negotiate a bilateral deal.
Ladbrokes - Euros - Scotland
SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/5 (was 1/3 yesterday)
Labour to win more votes than SNP 7/2 (was 9/4 yesterday)
The best SNP price for the Euros is now Hill's 1/4.
I don't know much about this but from the little I've read the Modi victory could have some very, very big repercussions around the world.
India/Pakistan relations being just one of the many issues.
There does appear to be a risk that the smug people who tend to run Labour campaigns have a simplistic interpretation of UKIP hurting the Tories, and so may overlook this possibility.
I'll happily bet at evens that the next non-IPSOS MORI poll shows a lead for In.
Oddly, Shadsy has not correspondingly adjusted either his SCON or his SLD prices. Does this mean that Shadsy thinks the potential UKIP seat may come from the 2 current SLab MEPs?
Scottish Euro prices at Ladbrokes are:
Conservatives to win a seat 1/4
Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1
UKIP to win a seat 6/4 (from 2/1)
UKIP to win 0 seats 1/2 (from 1/3)
Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1
Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10
It's one for filing in the circular filing cabinet.
I think it will be a classic value loser though.
(a) Low UKIP scores (dont prompt)
&
(b) Show In narrowly in front
So that bet is not an EVEN money shot
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#2014
To be fair, I hadnt looked at any other polling when I offered the £250 bet, and it probably was a fair 50/50 shot now I have looked
And I dont want to bet it now!
@jameschappers: .@oflynndirector interrupts on air to try to halt Nigel Farage's interview with @mrjamesob. 'We had an agreement on time' @LBC
Like quoting total goals in a football match at 1.5-3.5
But I am not saying that the low scores are wrong and the high are right. I bet for a living, I want to know the truth, not what suits me.
All I would say is that UKIP have always beaten the polling in actual elections in the last 18 months or so
@DPJHodges: Nigel Farage did bring a cut man. Patrick O'Flynn had to step in to try and stop the fight. Too late...
@TomMcTague: Farage just got mauled on LBC. James O'Brian was exceptionally good.
http://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2014/05/13/babble-in-the-bubble-ufsm-clegg-and-the-general-dysfunction-of-the-british-state/
http://www.lbc.co.uk/watch-nigel-farage-v-james-obrien-live-from-1130-90532
At the moment they seem to be on 13.5% in the polls.
I appreciate that you don't like this poll. That doesn't mean it's wrong.
Is there a prize?
http://order-order.com/2014/05/16/watch-ukip-comms-chief-interrupts-farage-lbc-interview
Most normal people have a history has good and bad in it. Wrong decisions, immaturity and poor judgement - they are a normal part of growing up. The old phrase, "it's not where you've been, it's where you're going to that's important." is true.
Let's have more candidates with Nazi or Commie pasts, silly tweets when "in their cups" that they regret now. Why can't a former porn star be the next female PM? Or Sean T as Minister for Families?
Journalists tend to have the most checkered history of all, yet they're the first on their high horse.