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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-MORI finds support for staying in the EU at its highe

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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    BobaFett said:

    @AnotherDave

    BOOer anecdote vs empirical research. The voters don't care about Europe. And when they are forced to think about it because Kippers bang on about it, they say: "better off in".

    What anecdote are you referring to?
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    There appear to be an increasing number of Brits living elsewhere in the EU. Not just retirees in Spain, people working as well. Assuming they are prospering aren’t they going to be advocates for the EU within their own families and circle of friends?

    I live in The Hague in the Netherlands. I'm prospering. I think the EU is a badly designed and undemocratic monster that is taking itself on a journey the citizens of Europe never voted for (especially us). I advocate deep reform or exit among my family and friends.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Fett, you know the electorate want to stay in without a referendum?

    Impressive.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,688
    After watching (most of) the presidential candidates debate last night, I am now minded to lend my Euro vote to the Greens. If this helps to push the LibDems into 5th place, all well and good.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,451
    BobaFett said:

    Given that the public now want to stay in the EU, there's not much point having a referendum that will cost millions.

    Good call by Ed Miliband?

    Ridiculous argument, we might as well scrap elections and rely on polls. It's always worth asking the question properly always!
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    BobaFett said:

    Given that the public now want to stay in the EU, there's not much point having a referendum that will cost millions.

    Good call by Ed Miliband?

    I see now why Labour didn't call an Indy Ref.

    Indy ref will be useful - Scotland will be able to get on with more important matters after the willy waving has been put to bed for another 40 years.

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    CD13 said:

    Neil,

    In the same way that Ukip are demonised, the Greens are portrayed as wanting to take us back to the stone age, living in caves, making fires with recycled furniture and dying of any random disease as we don't approve of vaccinations or nasty drugs that have been tested on animals. That's assuming we haven't already died of starvation as the organic food ran out years ago.

    And while being against nuclear power and fracking, they would have approved of coal mining if Ug had just stumbled across it.

    An accurate description?

    You've skimped on the authoritarianism and nannying but I think you're getting there.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059

    After watching (most of) the presidential candidates debate last night, I am now minded to lend my Euro vote to the Greens. If this helps to push the LibDems into 5th place, all well and good.

    I can understand being anti LibDem.

    But what is it about the party of anti-progress that attracts you?
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    La France is important - one of the richest and most powerful nations on Earth, a major exporter of high value goods and a massive producer of foods and consumables. Strategically and geographically she is widely considered to be, acre for acre, the most valuable nation in the world.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Mr. Fett, you know the electorate want to stay in without a referendum?

    Impressive.

    But asking the electorate is time consuming and costly,- Ed knows what's best for the plebs.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    ToryJim said:

    BobaFett said:

    Given that the public now want to stay in the EU, there's not much point having a referendum that will cost millions.

    Good call by Ed Miliband?


    Ridiculous argument, we might as well scrap elections and rely on polls. It's always worth asking the question properly always!
    Why ridiculous? We are not a direct democracy that holds referenda on the ins and outs of a fart. We are not Switzerland.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,451

    Mr. Fett, you know the electorate want to stay in without a referendum?

    Impressive.

    But asking the electorate is time consuming and costly,- Ed knows what's best for the plebs.
    Given his poll ratings he doesn't even know what's best for him ;)
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,688
    Destroying the planet through climate change - an interesting definition of 'progress'.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Mr. Fett, you know the electorate want to stay in without a referendum?

    Impressive.

    The polling data is clear for all to see, Morris.

    Let's move on.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,993

    There appear to be an increasing number of Brits living elsewhere in the EU. Not just retirees in Spain, people working as well. Assuming they are prospering aren’t they going to be advocates for the EU within their own families and circle of friends?

    I have spent practically my whole life living and working in continental Europe and as I am sure you know I am certainly not a supporter of continued EU membership.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059
    BobaFett said:

    ToryJim said:

    BobaFett said:

    Given that the public now want to stay in the EU, there's not much point having a referendum that will cost millions.

    Good call by Ed Miliband?


    Ridiculous argument, we might as well scrap elections and rely on polls. It's always worth asking the question properly always!
    Why ridiculous? We are not a direct democracy that holds referenda on the ins and outs of a fart. We are not Switzerland.
    No, Switzerland is much more prosperous country, with lower unemployment, and less income inequality.

    Albeit one with an incredibly nannying state, and one with an economy even more dependent on financial services than our own.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TGOHF said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    ToryJim said:

    AJK said:

    I hope 'STAY' or 'LEAVE' would be the choice on the referendum ballot. Much more objective than a 'YES' or 'NO' choice.

    For example. 'Do you wish to stay in, or leave the United Kingdom?' STAY? LEAVE? would I suggest produce a higher % for the Union, than 'should Scotland become an Independent country?

    Great point.

    That is what the bright Wendy Alexander realised, but her dim boss Gordon Brown sabotaged her initiative. Pretty much the only occasion when SLab have seriously wrongfooted the SNP in recent history.

    If Unionists had called the Scottish independence referendum (as Wendy was attempting to do), then they could have designed the entire poll: the timing, the legislative format, and cucially, the actual wording of the question.

    The wording on the ballot paper is one of the aces held by the YES campaign. It is a beautiful question. A clear question. And it appeals to Scots who actually like and respect their fellow Scots. Which is most of them.

    (But just to be clear, I do not agree that your wording would be any more "objective" than the actual wording. In fact, in terms of constitutional law, your wording tries to pretend that the Union with England Act never received royal assent.)
    having got everything they wanted the nationalists can't reasonably cry foul.
    Like that will stop them......

    I'm still chuckling over that poll suggesting Salmond is a bigger threat to Independence than Cameron is to the Union.....

    I'm always weary of polls that say X will make me more likely vote Y. People may say that, but in reality when push comes to shove, will it actually have that much of an effect?
    However the fact it keeps Carlotta from frothing so much means it is a bonus. Best just leaving her happy that it feeds her great hatred of Salmond , SNP and SCotland and relieves her inferiority complex. She will be able to pretend she is English easier today.
    Not a fan of polls anymore?

    Is that since the gap between yes and no started widening again?

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/05/poll-of-polls-12-may/

    Perhaps people have started to think about "Prime Minister Salmond"?
    The trend isn't Eck's friend - could be heading for sub 45% yet.
    YES will do very well to edge to 45% .... and frankly 40% is much more likely and with turnout likely to be above 80% a figure in the 35% range shouldn't be ruled out.

    That NO will win conclusively is not in doubt, simply the scale of the victory.

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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,451
    BobaFett said:

    ToryJim said:

    BobaFett said:

    Given that the public now want to stay in the EU, there's not much point having a referendum that will cost millions.

    Good call by Ed Miliband?


    Ridiculous argument, we might as well scrap elections and rely on polls. It's always worth asking the question properly always!
    Why ridiculous? We are not a direct democracy that holds referenda on the ins and outs of a fart. We are not Switzerland.
    We have conceded the point that certain issues require public approval outside of the realms of an ordinary election. Personally I'm in favour of referenda when the rules of the game are being amended. Membership of the EU is a rule of the game at present, amending it should require the consent of those for whom the game is played.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    JackW said:


    YES will do very well to edge to 45% .... and frankly 40% is much more likely and with turnout likely to be above 80% a figure in the 35% range shouldn't be ruled out.

    That NO will win conclusively is not in doubt, simply the scale of the victory.

    Wish I shared your confidence, nail bitting times ahead!
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    Patrick said:

    There appear to be an increasing number of Brits living elsewhere in the EU. Not just retirees in Spain, people working as well. Assuming they are prospering aren’t they going to be advocates for the EU within their own families and circle of friends?

    I live in The Hague in the Netherlands. I'm prospering. I think the EU is a badly designed and undemocratic monster that is taking itself on a journey the citizens of Europe never voted for (especially us). I advocate deep reform or exit among my family and friends.

    I wouldn’t disagree about the need for significant and substantial reform.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Patrick said:

    On topic: The gorilla in the corner of the whole Brexit debate is timing. Whatever happens we'll not get an In/Out referendum before 2017 at the earliest. But what state will the EU we would vote to leave or remain in be like by then? The Euro problem is decidedly unfixed.

    The EU bureaucracy have played a brilliant game of extend and pretend - but the fundamental flaws remain. The long term viability of the Eurozone (and certainly the economic viability of the garlic zone) remains basically fu*&ed. And this will not get unf$#@ed until something major and structural is changed.

    We see this week Germany growing and all the rest of the Eurozone still in recession, with some shockingly bad numbers across the board. France is particularly screwed. How long can this persist? At what point do the garlic zone voters give up and start giving Brussels the finger? Italt is perilously close to meltdown. The whole Eurozone is one shock away form collapse and/or rampant Japan style deflation. They're facing a lost decade or worse. And, horrible though it may seem, this recovery is well advanced and another recession will come along at some point, maybe soomn. The markets are overvalued and bubbles from London property to Chinese credit to US equities will pop. And when the next pop arrives the Eurozone is structurally unable to respond. Their governments and banking systems do not have the resources to repeat 2008.

    So....personally I'm not sure that some all-powerful, all consuming, Star Trek Borg collective-like Monster EU is still going to be there to absorb us. We may be voting to leave or remain in a pile of smoking wreckage.

    I quite like the idea of France leaving the EU. It seems very possible to me, and if they do, it could start a trend. There'd certainly be pressure within the UK, and if we left the cost burden on the other net contributors would increase.
    Not sure they would leave, they like feeling important too much.
    France is the 5th? 6th? largest economy in the world. They are important.
    They'd be less important.
    Total rubbish. Their climate, leading tourist industry, infrastructure, high standards of education, excellence in manufacturing, strategic location makes them acre for acre arguably the world's most valuable country.

    Useless fact: France receives more tourists annually than any other nation, by some distance.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047

    There appear to be an increasing number of Brits living elsewhere in the EU. Not just retirees in Spain, people working as well. Assuming they are prospering aren’t they going to be advocates for the EU within their own families and circle of friends?

    I have spent practically my whole life living and working in continental Europe and as I am sure you know I am certainly not a supporter of continued EU membership.
    Hmmm. !.5 against out of a sample of 2.

    Do I wait for more, or rethink?
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Calling a referendum on the EU is like calling a referendum on the demolition of Tower Bridge.

    Retaining said bridge has a clear majority so why bother voting on it?
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,993

    There appear to be an increasing number of Brits living elsewhere in the EU. Not just retirees in Spain, people working as well. Assuming they are prospering aren’t they going to be advocates for the EU within their own families and circle of friends?

    I have spent practically my whole life living and working in continental Europe and as I am sure you know I am certainly not a supporter of continued EU membership.
    Hmmm. !.5 against out of a sample of 2.

    Do I wait for more, or rethink?
    It has no bearing in the real world per se. All I am pointing out is that your conclusion that people working in Europe become more pro Eu is not a logical statement since it is not based upon any real statistical observation. Basically it is your unfounded theory against my personal experience and neither is more valid as a reflection of reality.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,451
    I hope you are correct JackW!
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Mr. Fett, you know the electorate want to stay in without a referendum?

    Impressive.

    Absolutely correct.

    Outside of supporting nation building referendums such as the Scottish vote, we seem as a nation to have become prone to such foolishness.

    A referendum is an abrogation of a MP's duties and IMO they should be docked a substantial percentage of their salary if they are unable to vote on such matters - Let's say 25% for every referendum they seek to inflict on the voters.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    BobaFett said:

    Calling a referendum on the EU is like calling a referendum on the demolition of Tower Bridge.

    Retaining said bridge has a clear majority so why bother voting on it?

    So MPs should have just voted us out of the EU in 2011, without a plebiscite?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    BobaFett said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Patrick said:

    On topic: The gorilla in the corner of the whole Brexit debate is timing. Whatever happens we'll not get an In/Out referendum before 2017 at the earliest. But what state will the EU we would vote to leave or remain in be like by then? The Euro problem is decidedly unfixed.

    The EU bureaucracy have played a brilliant game of extend and pretend - but the fundamental flaws remain. The long term viability of the Eurozone (and certainly the economic viability of the garlic zone) remains basically fu*&ed. And this will not get unf$#@ed until something major and structural is changed.

    We see this week Germany growing and all the rest of the Eurozone still in recession, with some shockingly bad numbers across the board. France is particularly screwed. How long can this persist? At what point do the garlic zone voters give up and start giving Brussels the finger? Italt is perilously close to meltdown. The whole Eurozone is one shock away form collapse and/or rampant Japan style deflation. They're facing a lost decade or worse. And, horrible though it may seem, this recovery is well advanced and another recession will come along at some point, maybe soomn. The markets are overvalued and bubbles from London property to Chinese credit to US equities will pop. And when the next pop arrives the Eurozone is structurally unable to respond. Their governments and banking systems do not have the resources to repeat 2008.

    So....personally I'm not sure that some all-powerful, all consuming, Star Trek Borg collective-like Monster EU is still going to be there to absorb us. We may be voting to leave or remain in a pile of smoking wreckage.

    I quite like the idea of France leaving the EU. It seems very possible to me, and if they do, it could start a trend. There'd certainly be pressure within the UK, and if we left the cost burden on the other net contributors would increase.
    Not sure they would leave, they like feeling important too much.
    France is the 5th? 6th? largest economy in the world. They are important.
    They'd be less important.
    Total rubbish. Their climate, leading tourist industry, infrastructure, high standards of education, excellence in manufacturing, strategic location makes them acre for acre arguably the world's most valuable country.

    Useless fact: France receives more tourists annually than any other nation, by some distance.
    Think how many more they could have if they uprgaded their service stations fto better than 1974
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    RobD said:

    BobaFett said:

    Calling a referendum on the EU is like calling a referendum on the demolition of Tower Bridge.

    Retaining said bridge has a clear majority so why bother voting on it?

    So MPs should have just voted us out of the EU in 2011, without a plebiscite?
    No. Because they would be looking to change the constitution, change the status quo.

    Now the status quo has a majority so no need for a referendum.

    Good call by Ed.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    JackW said:

    Mr. Fett, you know the electorate want to stay in without a referendum?

    Impressive.

    Absolutely correct.

    Outside of supporting nation building referendums such as the Scottish vote, we seem as a nation to have become prone to such foolishness.

    A referendum is an abrogation of a MP's duties and IMO they should be docked a substantial percentage of their salary if they are unable to vote on such matters - Let's say 25% for every referendum they seek to inflict on the voters.

    Well said that man.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    After watching (most of) the presidential candidates debate last night, I am now minded to lend my Euro vote to the Greens. If this helps to push the LibDems into 5th place, all well and good.

    Welcome aboard! You wont regret a thing!

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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    ConHome have published a piece by Mr Farage!

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/05/nigel-farage-vote-ukip-next-week-to-send-a-message-to-brussels-and-the-whole-political-class.html

    EDIT
    I've just noticed, Mr Farage has 128,000 twitter followers. Rather less than Taylor Swift, but still, 128,000!
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited May 2014
    @RobD and @ToryJim

    What a pair of quaking jimmies you both are.

    Squeeze your buttocks firmly and enjoy the ride.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,451
    JackW said:

    Mr. Fett, you know the electorate want to stay in without a referendum?

    Impressive.

    Absolutely correct.

    Outside of supporting nation building referendums such as the Scottish vote, we seem as a nation to have become prone to such foolishness.

    A referendum is an abrogation of a MP's duties and IMO they should be docked a substantial percentage of their salary if they are unable to vote on such matters - Let's say 25% for every referendum they seek to inflict on the voters.

    The players shouldn't decide the rules under which they play. Referenda should be rare and limited to constitutional matters. For instance whilst I supported the fixed term parliament act, it altered the rules under which politics was performed and MPs elected and should be subject to the peoples consent.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Boba - you may or not be right but come 2017 we will likely still have Scotland in the family and still be in the EU- and all the fire and froth of Farage and Salmond will be doused - will be extremely refreshing.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    BobaFett said:

    Calling a referendum on the EU is like calling a referendum on the demolition of Tower Bridge.

    Retaining said bridge has a clear majority so why bother voting on it?

    So MPs should have just voted us out of the EU in 2011, without a plebiscite?
    Yes.

    Parliament is sovereign.

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    ConHome have published a piece by Mr Farage!

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/05/nigel-farage-vote-ukip-next-week-to-send-a-message-to-brussels-and-the-whole-political-class.html

    EDIT
    I've just noticed, Mr Farage has 128,000 twitter followers. Rather less than Taylor Swift, but still, 128,000!

    Looks like Nige accepts this is his final hurrah..

    "I appreciate that many of you who intend to vote UKIP next week also intend to return to the Tory fold at the general election next year. I am quite happy to accept your support on such terms"
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    TGOHF said:

    BobaFett said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Patrick said:

    On topic: The gorilla in the corner of the whole Brexit debate is timing. Whatever happens we'll not get an In/Out referendum before 2017 at the earliest. But what state will the EU we would vote to leave or remain in be like by then? The Euro problem is decidedly unfixed.

    The EU bureaucracy have played a brilliant game of extend and pretend - but the fundamental flaws remain. The long term viability of the Eurozone (and certainly the economic viability of the garlic zone) remains basically fu*&ed. And this will not get unf$#@ed until something major and structural is changed.

    We see this week Germany growing and all the rest of the Eurozone still in recession, with some shockingly bad numbers across the board. France is particularly screwed. How long can this persist? At what point do the garlic zone voters give up and start giving Brussels the finger? Italt is perilously close to meltdown. The whole Eurozone is one shock away form collapse and/or rampant Japan style deflation. They're facing a lost decade or worse. And, horrible though it may seem, this recovery is well advanced and another recession will come along at some point, maybe soomn. The markets are overvalued and bubbles from London property to Chinese credit to US equities will pop. And when the next pop arrives the Eurozone is structurally unable to respond. Their governments and banking systems do not have the resources to repeat 2008.

    So....personally I'm not sure that some all-powerful, all consuming, Star Trek Borg collective-like Monster EU is still going to be there to absorb us. We may be voting to leave or remain in a pile of smoking wreckage.

    I quite like the idea of France leaving the EU. It seems very possible to me, and if they do, it could start a trend. There'd certainly be pressure within the UK, and if we left the cost burden on the other net contributors would increase.
    Not sure they would leave, they like feeling important too much.
    France is the 5th? 6th? largest economy in the world. They are important.
    They'd be less important.
    Total rubbish. Their climate, leading tourist industry, infrastructure, high standards of education, excellence in manufacturing, strategic location makes them acre for acre arguably the world's most valuable country.

    Useless fact: France receives more tourists annually than any other nation, by some distance.
    Think how many more they could have if they uprgaded their service stations fto better than 1974
    LOL. Point taken ;)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Flashman (deceased), Mr. Dave, I think it's possible to get over-excited by meaningless numbers.

    I was amused to see on Sky News a comparison of Twitter followers and Youtube subscribers for Yes and No (Yes ahead on both by a clear margin). However, the subscribers were less than 5,000 for both, which is pretty low and meaningless.

    Mr. W, Parliament sovereign? It's entrusted with power by the choice of the electorate, but has given away much of that power to a foreign body without recourse to the people. We were never asked about political union, and it's unjust for the political class to move power from the gift of the electorate to the whim of foreign bureaucrats without asking the electorate.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    I doubt it has much to do with Scotland.

    Isn't it more likely that:

    (1) A good proportion of UKIP voters see their support for the party as a general cry of dissatisfaction rather than as being about support for pulling out of the EU?

    (2) UKIP is a polarising party. It attracts support, but polls show it is also actively disliked by a large number of voters. Perhaps there is an "If UKIP is for it I am against it" effect.

    It's also worth remembering that despite the UKIP surge parties that support staying in the EU will win more votes than those supporting pulling out on 22nd May.

    Good post. As Mike has frequently mentioned in the past, the EU does not rank highly on voters' (direct) concerns. It may rank a little higher once indirect concerns are taken into account - immigration, globalisation, voters' control over their own affairs and so on - but it's still not the economy, NHS or education. UKIP is at present the best NOTA option and are capitalising on that fact.
    And as I frequently point out every time Mike frequently makes that point: he is talking nonsense.

    Speaking of which, "One swallow does not make a spring (as they say in Germany)." das ist falsch,'Eine Schwalbe macht noch keinen Sommer' - tis the same as ours.

    pedant mode off.
    The German friend who told me that came from the far south, right on the border with Switzerland. Perhaps swallows arrive earlier there than they do in northern Germany or in England?
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,451
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    BobaFett said:

    Calling a referendum on the EU is like calling a referendum on the demolition of Tower Bridge.

    Retaining said bridge has a clear majority so why bother voting on it?

    So MPs should have just voted us out of the EU in 2011, without a plebiscite?
    Yes.

    Parliament is sovereign.

    The people are above Parliament as Parliament is there as a representative body. There are those matters which Parliament should refer back to its masters.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,984
    edited May 2014
    The most amazing thing about this thread is that nobody has mentioned that in their latest Westminster VI poll, IPSOS MORI has UKIP on 11% while most other pollsters have them on 15%, & some as high as 18%... is it a surprise they have the a low score for OUT?

    Does nobody think of things like this? Did anyone study how to compare sources at school?

    Extrapolating the ratio between UKIP & OUT on other polls would give OUT over 50%.. it would be foolish of me to take an extrapolation of the UKIP score from Survation and declare that a majority wants to leave the EU

    @BobaFett wants to take the pollster that rank UKIP at 60% of what some others do and use it as a case for no referendum!

    But one thing it does prove... the desperation to show everything bad for UKIP interferes with the rational thinking of usually cool headed posters on PB


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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    edited May 2014
    Neil said:

    After watching (most of) the presidential candidates debate last night, I am now minded to lend my Euro vote to the Greens. If this helps to push the LibDems into 5th place, all well and good.

    Welcome aboard! You wont regret a thing!

    Proves the point that several of us, most recently SO this morning, have been making on here: as one of the NOTAs is shop-soiled, people look around for another.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ToryJim said:

    JackW said:

    Mr. Fett, you know the electorate want to stay in without a referendum?

    Impressive.

    Absolutely correct.

    Outside of supporting nation building referendums such as the Scottish vote, we seem as a nation to have become prone to such foolishness.

    A referendum is an abrogation of a MP's duties and IMO they should be docked a substantial percentage of their salary if they are unable to vote on such matters - Let's say 25% for every referendum they seek to inflict on the voters.

    The players shouldn't decide the rules under which they play. Referenda should be rare and limited to constitutional matters. For instance whilst I supported the fixed term parliament act, it altered the rules under which politics was performed and MPs elected and should be subject to the peoples consent.
    Prior to the recent fetish for referenda constitutional changes have been made regularly without undue recourse and disturbance to the voters.

    The only exception should be nation determining votes. All else should and previously has been eminently well settled by the Houses of Parliament.

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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    UKIP tighten in the North East of England. Now 8/1 to win most votes in that Euro constituency (were 12/1).
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    ToryJim said:

    JackW said:

    Mr. Fett, you know the electorate want to stay in without a referendum?

    Impressive.

    Absolutely correct.

    Outside of supporting nation building referendums such as the Scottish vote, we seem as a nation to have become prone to such foolishness.

    A referendum is an abrogation of a MP's duties and IMO they should be docked a substantial percentage of their salary if they are unable to vote on such matters - Let's say 25% for every referendum they seek to inflict on the voters.

    The players shouldn't decide the rules under which they play. Referenda should be rare and limited to constitutional matters. For instance whilst I supported the fixed term parliament act, it altered the rules under which politics was performed and MPs elected and should be subject to the peoples consent.
    Ye Gods. Go and live in Switzerland if you fancy direct democracy and endless referenda on matters the public understands little and cares even less about. Some of us have work to do.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,451
    JackW said:

    ToryJim said:

    JackW said:

    Mr. Fett, you know the electorate want to stay in without a referendum?

    Impressive.

    Absolutely correct.

    Outside of supporting nation building referendums such as the Scottish vote, we seem as a nation to have become prone to such foolishness.

    A referendum is an abrogation of a MP's duties and IMO they should be docked a substantial percentage of their salary if they are unable to vote on such matters - Let's say 25% for every referendum they seek to inflict on the voters.

    The players shouldn't decide the rules under which they play. Referenda should be rare and limited to constitutional matters. For instance whilst I supported the fixed term parliament act, it altered the rules under which politics was performed and MPs elected and should be subject to the peoples consent.
    Prior to the recent fetish for referenda constitutional changes have been made regularly without undue recourse and disturbance to the voters.

    The only exception should be nation determining votes. All else should and previously has been eminently well settled by the Houses of Parliament.

    That they have doesn't mean that they should.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    BobaFett said:

    ToryJim said:

    JackW said:

    Mr. Fett, you know the electorate want to stay in without a referendum?

    Impressive.

    Absolutely correct.

    Outside of supporting nation building referendums such as the Scottish vote, we seem as a nation to have become prone to such foolishness.

    A referendum is an abrogation of a MP's duties and IMO they should be docked a substantial percentage of their salary if they are unable to vote on such matters - Let's say 25% for every referendum they seek to inflict on the voters.

    The players shouldn't decide the rules under which they play. Referenda should be rare and limited to constitutional matters. For instance whilst I supported the fixed term parliament act, it altered the rules under which politics was performed and MPs elected and should be subject to the peoples consent.
    Ye Gods. Go and live in Switzerland if you fancy direct democracy and endless referenda on matters the public understands little and cares even less about. Some of us have work to do.
    To be fair, the vast majority of the Swiss referenda have nothing to do with constitutional reform/issues.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ToryJim said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    BobaFett said:

    Calling a referendum on the EU is like calling a referendum on the demolition of Tower Bridge.

    Retaining said bridge has a clear majority so why bother voting on it?

    So MPs should have just voted us out of the EU in 2011, without a plebiscite?
    Yes.

    Parliament is sovereign.

    The people are above Parliament as Parliament is there as a representative body. There are those matters which Parliament should refer back to its masters.
    I'm unsure why we should send MP's to parliament to determine affairs only for them to pass the buck back to us ?!?

    Let them get on with it and if sufficient of us "Masters" are dissatisfied we may determine to eject them at our pleasure.

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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,451
    BobaFett said:

    ToryJim said:

    JackW said:

    Mr. Fett, you know the electorate want to stay in without a referendum?

    Impressive.

    Absolutely correct.

    Outside of supporting nation building referendums such as the Scottish vote, we seem as a nation to have become prone to such foolishness.

    A referendum is an abrogation of a MP's duties and IMO they should be docked a substantial percentage of their salary if they are unable to vote on such matters - Let's say 25% for every referendum they seek to inflict on the voters.

    The players shouldn't decide the rules under which they play. Referenda should be rare and limited to constitutional matters. For instance whilst I supported the fixed term parliament act, it altered the rules under which politics was performed and MPs elected and should be subject to the peoples consent.
    Ye Gods. Go and live in Switzerland if you fancy direct democracy and endless referenda on matters the public understands little and cares even less about. Some of us have work to do.
    I don't like direct democracy, I make a clear distinction between constitutional matters and ordinary issues. If Parliament wants to make engines of 1.6L and above illegal then that is a matter for them. If they however wish to change the ordinary length of a Parliamentary term, then that should be decided by the people.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    The most amazing thing about this thread is that nobody has mentioned that in their latest Westminster VI poll, IPSOS MORI has UKIP on 11% while most other pollsters have them on 15%, & some as high as 18%... is it a surprise they have the a low score for OUT?

    Does nobody think of things like this? Did anyone study how to compare sources at school?

    Extrapolating the ratio between UKIP & OUT on other polls would give OUT over 50%.. it would be foolish of me to take an extrapolation of the UKIP score from Survation and declare that a majority wants to leave the EU

    @BobaFett wants to take the pollster that rank UKIP at 60% of what some others do and use it as a case for no referendum!

    But one thing it does prove... the desperation to show everything bad for UKIP interferes with the rational thinking of usually cool headed posters on PB


    Even if you put in a five point swing to rate UKIP as high as 16% (though why you would do that, I don't know), you'd still get In 49% Out 42%.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,451
    JackW said:

    ToryJim said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    BobaFett said:

    Calling a referendum on the EU is like calling a referendum on the demolition of Tower Bridge.

    Retaining said bridge has a clear majority so why bother voting on it?

    So MPs should have just voted us out of the EU in 2011, without a plebiscite?
    Yes.

    Parliament is sovereign.

    The people are above Parliament as Parliament is there as a representative body. There are those matters which Parliament should refer back to its masters.
    I'm unsure why we should send MP's to parliament to determine affairs only for them to pass the buck back to us ?!?

    Let them get on with it and if sufficient of us "Masters" are dissatisfied we may determine to eject them at our pleasure.

    In ordinary matters I totally agree. The only issues I think the people should decide is matters that affect the way politics is conducted as it is conducted on their behalf so they should be the rule setters.
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    hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Mike

    I think you are right that fear of change is behind this poll result. People may have heard about the complications of Scottish independence and withdrawing from the EU would have implications for British people. For example Brits that have moved to Spain currently enjoy access to Spanish public hospitals. If the UK left the EU, it is possible that Spain would withdraw access, unless the UK health authorities agreed another deal. If the UK voted to leave the EU, it could have a big impact on world markets, at a time when Europe is in the process of recovery. If people believed that another economic crisis could be triggered by a YES vote to leave the EU, they might not be so keen.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), Mr. Dave, I think it's possible to get over-excited by meaningless numbers.

    I was amused to see on Sky News a comparison of Twitter followers and Youtube subscribers for Yes and No (Yes ahead on both by a clear margin). However, the subscribers were less than 5,000 for both, which is pretty low and meaningless.

    I was thinking of it as all UK voters (which it won't be) and comparing it with newspaper circulations: 128,000 is not bad.

    Taylor Swift has 40,800,000 twitter followers. Imagine the Google Adsense revenue possibilities! To say nothing of the Taylor Swift easter eggs, and Taylor Swift action figure sales.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    House of Lords committee has some interesting views on a potential Yes vote:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27424993

    Independence could be delayed if it suits the non-Scottish UK (doubt this'll happen), Scotland's MPs should retain seats until formal independence occurs but they should not be able to participate in negotiations.

    That seems a bit weird to me.

    Suppose Miliband gets a majority of 20, contingent on Scottish seats (entirely possible). Is he PM? Does that change a few years after the General Election?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MPs simply don't have the public's trust at present. So their authority for taking decisions on our behalf on major matters is unusually weak. Holding referenda is a way of overcoming that lack of authority.

    Who knows, it might even help politicians regain some public trust.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ToryJim said:

    JackW said:

    ToryJim said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    BobaFett said:

    Calling a referendum on the EU is like calling a referendum on the demolition of Tower Bridge.

    Retaining said bridge has a clear majority so why bother voting on it?

    So MPs should have just voted us out of the EU in 2011, without a plebiscite?
    Yes.

    Parliament is sovereign.

    The people are above Parliament as Parliament is there as a representative body. There are those matters which Parliament should refer back to its masters.
    I'm unsure why we should send MP's to parliament to determine affairs only for them to pass the buck back to us ?!?

    Let them get on with it and if sufficient of us "Masters" are dissatisfied we may determine to eject them at our pleasure.

    In ordinary matters I totally agree. The only issues I think the people should decide is matters that affect the way politics is conducted as it is conducted on their behalf so they should be the rule setters.
    We shall have to agree to demur .... but of course on the basis that JackW is correct whereas you may wish to place your position before the voters in a referendum !!

    Titters



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    isamisam Posts: 40,984
    edited May 2014
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    The most amazing thing about this thread is that nobody has mentioned that in their latest Westminster VI poll, IPSOS MORI has UKIP on 11% while most other pollsters have them on 15%, & some as high as 18%... is it a surprise they have the a low score for OUT?

    Does nobody think of things like this? Did anyone study how to compare sources at school?

    Extrapolating the ratio between UKIP & OUT on other polls would give OUT over 50%.. it would be foolish of me to take an extrapolation of the UKIP score from Survation and declare that a majority wants to leave the EU

    @BobaFett wants to take the pollster that rank UKIP at 60% of what some others do and use it as a case for no referendum!

    But one thing it does prove... the desperation to show everything bad for UKIP interferes with the rational thinking of usually cool headed posters on PB


    Even if you put in a five point swing to rate UKIP as high as 16% (though why you would do that, I don't know), you'd still get In 49% Out 42%.
    Why wouldnt you do that? Its nearer to the average than 11%

    And anyway, you dont just add the same percentage to the OUT vote as you do the UKIP score, otherwise IPSOS MORI would have OUT on 11%

    It is the ratio of UKIP to OUT that changes, so 11% to 16% wouldnt mean 37% to 42%, I think it would make OUT over 50%

    Becasue if UKIP are scoring 16% it means a lot more people that arent voting UKIP are still wanting OUT
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited May 2014
    ToryJim said:

    AJK said:

    I hope 'STAY' or 'LEAVE' would be the choice on the referendum ballot. Much more objective than a 'YES' or 'NO' choice.

    For example. 'Do you wish to stay in, or leave the United Kingdom?' STAY? LEAVE? would I suggest produce a higher % for the Union, than 'should Scotland become an Independent country?

    Great point.

    That is what the bright Wendy Alexander realised, but her dim boss Gordon Brown sabotaged her initiative. Pretty much the only occasion when SLab have seriously wrongfooted the SNP in recent history.

    If Unionists had called the Scottish independence referendum (as Wendy was attempting to do), then they could have designed the entire poll: the timing, the legislative format, and cucially, the actual wording of the question.

    The wording on the ballot paper is one of the aces held by the YES campaign. It is a beautiful question. A clear question. And it appeals to Scots who actually like and respect their fellow Scots. Which is most of them.

    (But just to be clear, I do not agree that your wording would be any more "objective" than the actual wording. In fact, in terms of constitutional law, your wording tries to pretend that the Union with England Act never received royal assent.)
    The thing is though having in essence granted Salmond everything he wants in the referendum, question, timing, even down to voting pool it makes the stakes higher for nationalists. If the polls are accurate and there's no reason to suggest otherwise then the issue is settled, because having got everything they wanted the nationalists can't reasonably cry foul.
    - "If the polls are accurate and there's no reason to suggest otherwise then the issue is settled"

    Err... in a democracy it is customary to wait until the polling stations close, the votes are counted and the result announced before an "issue is settled".

    But by all means, feel free to assume that a 56%/44% No/Yes poll lead in May will lead to a 56%/44% No/Yes result in September. It might be the first time in world history that polling has been spot on 4 months before an election.

    Unionist complacency is one of Yes Scotland's ace cards.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    rcs1000 said:

    BobaFett said:

    ToryJim said:

    BobaFett said:

    Given that the public now want to stay in the EU, there's not much point having a referendum that will cost millions.

    Good call by Ed Miliband?


    Ridiculous argument, we might as well scrap elections and rely on polls. It's always worth asking the question properly always!
    Why ridiculous? We are not a direct democracy that holds referenda on the ins and outs of a fart. We are not Switzerland.
    No, Switzerland is much more prosperous country, with lower unemployment, and less income inequality.

    Albeit one with an incredibly nannying state, and one with an economy even more dependent on financial services than our own.
    I would guess that the nannying is instigated by the peoples of the cantons rather than the central government. Part of the Swiss psyche.

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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    I've work commitments on Friday...so I can't follow the election night as I hoped. Damn. Same thing for Friday count. I will be free from mid afternoon but the damn train doesn't have wifi connection. So I will only have the phone to check updates.
    Life is unfair!
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    ToryJim said:

    AJK said:

    I hope 'STAY' or 'LEAVE' would be the choice on the referendum ballot. Much more objective than a 'YES' or 'NO' choice.

    For example. 'Do you wish to stay in, or leave the United Kingdom?' STAY? LEAVE? would I suggest produce a higher % for the Union, than 'should Scotland become an Independent country?

    Great point.

    That is what the bright Wendy Alexander realised, but her dim boss Gordon Brown sabotaged her initiative. Pretty much the only occasion when SLab have seriously wrongfooted the SNP in recent history.

    If Unionists had called the Scottish independence referendum (as Wendy was attempting to do), then they could have designed the entire poll: the timing, the legislative format, and cucially, the actual wording of the question.

    The wording on the ballot paper is one of the aces held by the YES campaign. It is a beautiful question. A clear question. And it appeals to Scots who actually like and respect their fellow Scots. Which is most of them.

    (But just to be clear, I do not agree that your wording would be any more "objective" than the actual wording. In fact, in terms of constitutional law, your wording tries to pretend that the Union with England Act never received royal assent.)
    The thing is though having in essence granted Salmond everything he wants in the referendum, question, timing, even down to voting pool it makes the stakes higher for nationalists. If the polls are accurate and there's no reason to suggest otherwise then the issue is settled, because having got everything they wanted the nationalists can't reasonably cry foul.
    - "If the polls are accurate and there's no reason to suggest otherwise then the issue is settled"

    Unionist complacency is one of Yes Scotland's ace cards.
    * Con poll lead
    * Complacency
    * SLab squabbles
    * Ryder Cup
    * Commonwealth Games
    * u18s voting
    * Choice of question

    I make that 7 aces - you wouldn't have lasted long in a wild west saloon with that hand..
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,965
    TOPPING said:

    Neil said:

    After watching (most of) the presidential candidates debate last night, I am now minded to lend my Euro vote to the Greens. If this helps to push the LibDems into 5th place, all well and good.

    Welcome aboard! You wont regret a thing!

    Proves the point that several of us, most recently SO this morning, have been making on here: as one of the NOTAs is shop-soiled, people look around for another.

    Yup - the interesting and significant thing is what happens to the UKIP vote after these elections. Do people return to their previous loyalties or will it be the start of something? Labour has had a very strong warning of what could well happen in May 2015 after four weeks when EdM has been on the telly everyday. The Tories do not benefit directly, but Labour-inclined voters go elsewhere or stay at home. And for the Tories that is as good as a win.


  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    On topic, I'm not surprised by this, given this is UKIP's raison d'etre and UKIP is focussing/polarising opinions.

    Also, I've completed my best man's speech for tomorrow, and I have three jokes at the expense of Farage, UKIP and pulling out of Europe.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,451

    ToryJim said:

    AJK said:

    I hope 'STAY' or 'LEAVE' would be the choice on the referendum ballot. Much more objective than a 'YES' or 'NO' choice.

    For example. 'Do you wish to stay in, or leave the United Kingdom?' STAY? LEAVE? would I suggest produce a higher % for the Union, than 'should Scotland become an Independent country?

    Great point.

    That is what the bright Wendy Alexander realised, but her dim boss Gordon Brown sabotaged her initiative. Pretty much the only occasion when SLab have seriously wrongfooted the SNP in recent history.

    If Unionists had called the Scottish independence referendum (as Wendy was attempting to do), then they could have designed the entire poll: the timing, the legislative format, and cucially, the actual wording of the question.

    The wording on the ballot paper is one of the aces held by the YES campaign. It is a beautiful question. A clear question. And it appeals to Scots who actually like and respect their fellow Scots. Which is most of them.

    (But just to be clear, I do not agree that your wording would be any more "objective" than the actual wording. In fact, in terms of constitutional law, your wording tries to pretend that the Union with England Act never received royal assent.)
    The thing is though having in essence granted Salmond everything he wants in the referendum, question, timing, even down to voting pool it makes the stakes higher for nationalists. If the polls are accurate and there's no reason to suggest otherwise then the issue is settled, because having got everything they wanted the nationalists can't reasonably cry foul.
    - "If the polls are accurate and there's no reason to suggest otherwise then the issue is settled"

    Err... in a democracy it is customary to wait until the polling stations close, the votes are counted and the result announced before an "issue is settled".

    But by all means, feel free to assume that a 56%/44% No/Yes poll lead in May will lead to a 56%/44% No/Yes result in September. It might be the first time in world history that polling has been spot on 4 months before an election.

    Unionist complacency is one of Yes Scotland's ace cards.
    My point was that if, as seems to be indicated by all the current polling, the result is No then given the fact that the nationalists were given everything they wanted then the outcome will not be subject to challenge. Although perhaps given the infinite capacity of nationalists to deliberately misinterpret I should adjust my confidence in that score.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    Populus @PopulusPolls · 18s

    New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 32 (-3); LD 10 (+2); UKIP 13 (=); Oth 9 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140516
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,965
    "Immigration remains the dominant issue for Ukip voters at the European election; 74% of Ukip voters say immigration is an important issue compared with 47% of all voters. Three-quarters of new Ukip supporters cite immigration as the chief reason for Farage's party, and not Europe. On average, Ukip supporters believe that 38% of the UK population are immigrants."

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/14/ukip-poll-fans-farage-more-likely-alienated-angry
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    Off topic, I'm still reeling from last night's revelation that Richard Nabavi knows what a MILF is.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    ToryJim said:

    AJK said:

    I hope 'STAY' or 'LEAVE' would be the choice on the referendum ballot. Much more objective than a 'YES' or 'NO' choice.

    For example. 'Do you wish to stay in, or leave the United Kingdom?' STAY? LEAVE? would I suggest produce a higher % for the Union, than 'should Scotland become an Independent country?

    Great point.

    That is what the bright Wendy Alexander realised, but her dim boss Gordon Brown sabotaged her initiative. Pretty much the only occasion when SLab have seriously wrongfooted the SNP in recent history.

    If Unionists had called the Scottish independence referendum (as Wendy was attempting to do), then they could have designed the entire poll: the timing, the legislative format, and cucially, the actual wording of the question.

    The wording on the ballot paper is one of the aces held by the YES campaign. It is a beautiful question. A clear question. And it appeals to Scots who actually like and respect their fellow Scots. Which is most of them.

    (But just to be clear, I do not agree that your wording would be any more "objective" than the actual wording. In fact, in terms of constitutional law, your wording tries to pretend that the Union with England Act never received royal assent.)
    The thing is though having in essence granted Salmond everything he wants in the referendum, question, timing, even down to voting pool it makes the stakes higher for nationalists. If the polls are accurate and there's no reason to suggest otherwise then the issue is settled, because having got everything they wanted the nationalists can't reasonably cry foul.
    - "If the polls are accurate and there's no reason to suggest otherwise then the issue is settled"

    Err... in a democracy it is customary to wait until the polling stations close, the votes are counted and the result announced before an "issue is settled".

    But by all means, feel free to assume that a 56%/44% No/Yes poll lead in May will lead to a 56%/44% No/Yes result in September. It might be the first time in world history that polling has been spot on 4 months before an election.

    Unionist complacency is one of Yes Scotland's ace cards.
    I'm constantly on the lookout for a bookie to take my wagers after the "issue is settled" !!

    I bet on the basis that I've correctly forecast the result. Perhaps in Sweden they have some rather more interesting traditions ?

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Arf

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27437973

    "UKIP has come under fire after it emerged that seven people were arrested on suspicion of immigration offences in a raid on a restaurant owned by the party's small business spokesman."
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Observer, worth pointing out there's a rather large overlap between the EU and immigration concerns.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    An interesting take on the referendum debate:
    The theory of reactance developed by psychologist Jack Brehm suggests humans desire something that is denied to them significantly more than if it was freely available.

    ... There may be important lessons here for those currently campaigning to preserve the Union.

    While compelling arguments no doubt exist to suggest the fear of losing something we value is equally likely to influence our decision-making, the strategy of saying No doesn't appear to be working in the independence debate.

    Indeed, a poll earlier this week suggested almost half of voters who are undecided perceive the Better Together campaign as negative. The best example of this was Chancellor George Osborne arguing that if Scotland walked away from the UK "it walks away from the UK pound".

    The consensus is that this backfired, with Scots angry at perceived bullying tactics by a Conservative minister at Westminster, but also equally likely to question the claims and look more favourably on the alternatives.
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/inside-track-research-needed-on-aspect-of-referendum-debate.24227105
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    TGOHF said:

    ToryJim said:

    AJK said:

    I hope 'STAY' or 'LEAVE' would be the choice on the referendum ballot. Much more objective than a 'YES' or 'NO' choice.

    For example. 'Do you wish to stay in, or leave the United Kingdom?' STAY? LEAVE? would I suggest produce a higher % for the Union, than 'should Scotland become an Independent country?

    Great point.

    That is what the bright Wendy Alexander realised, but her dim boss Gordon Brown sabotaged her initiative. Pretty much the only occasion when SLab have seriously wrongfooted the SNP in recent history.

    If Unionists had called the Scottish independence referendum (as Wendy was attempting to do), then they could have designed the entire poll: the timing, the legislative format, and cucially, the actual wording of the question.

    The wording on the ballot paper is one of the aces held by the YES campaign. It is a beautiful question. A clear question. And it appeals to Scots who actually like and respect their fellow Scots. Which is most of them.

    (But just to be clear, I do not agree that your wording would be any more "objective" than the actual wording. In fact, in terms of constitutional law, your wording tries to pretend that the Union with England Act never received royal assent.)
    The thing is though having in essence granted Salmond everything he wants in the referendum, question, timing, even down to voting pool it makes the stakes higher for nationalists. If the polls are accurate and there's no reason to suggest otherwise then the issue is settled, because having got everything they wanted the nationalists can't reasonably cry foul.
    - "If the polls are accurate and there's no reason to suggest otherwise then the issue is settled"

    Unionist complacency is one of Yes Scotland's ace cards.
    * Con poll lead
    * Complacency
    * SLab squabbles
    * Ryder Cup
    * Commonwealth Games
    * u18s voting
    * Choice of question

    I make that 7 aces - you wouldn't have lasted long in a wild west saloon with that hand..
    I had a t shirt that said "A Smith and Wesson beats four ace"
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    TGOHF said:

    Arf

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27437973

    "UKIP has come under fire after it emerged that seven people were arrested on suspicion of immigration offences in a raid on a restaurant owned by the party's small business spokesman."

    They were either Indians or Pakistanis nationals.

    I've frequented that restaurant, it is very nice.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,984

    Off topic, I'm still reeling from last night's revelation that Richard Nabavi knows what a MILF is.

    Its Esther McVey
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited May 2014
    BobaFett said:

    ToryJim said:

    JackW said:

    Mr. Fett, you know the electorate want to stay in without a referendum?

    Impressive.

    Absolutely correct.

    Outside of supporting nation building referendums such as the Scottish vote, we seem as a nation to have become prone to such foolishness.

    A referendum is an abrogation of a MP's duties and IMO they should be docked a substantial percentage of their salary if they are unable to vote on such matters - Let's say 25% for every referendum they seek to inflict on the voters.

    The players shouldn't decide the rules under which they play. Referenda should be rare and limited to constitutional matters. For instance whilst I supported the fixed term parliament act, it altered the rules under which politics was performed and MPs elected and should be subject to the peoples consent.
    Ye Gods. Go and live in Switzerland if you fancy direct democracy and endless referenda on matters the public understands little and cares even less about. Some of us have work to do.
    Bob doesn't approve, therefore it shouldn't be done.

    'Brexit'.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    I've work commitments on Friday...so I can't follow the election night as I hoped. Damn. Same thing for Friday count. I will be free from mid afternoon but the damn train doesn't have wifi connection. So I will only have the phone to check updates.
    Life is unfair!

    May I ask if your work is academic or some squalid, tasteless and rather vulgar attempt at remedying the Italian economy ?

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    edited May 2014
    What numpty thought it was a good idea to start the 20/20 tournament in the middle of May.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Off topic, I'm still reeling from last night's revelation that Richard Nabavi knows what a MILF is.

    Nabavi is a Tory. Tories are famous for being more perverted than other politicians. During the 1980s pretty much the entire party looked upon their leader as a mother-figure who they'd like to...

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    An interesting take on the referendum debate:

    The theory of reactance developed by psychologist Jack Brehm suggests humans desire something that is denied to them significantly more than if it was freely available.

    .
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/inside-track-research-needed-on-aspect-of-referendum-debate.24227105


    I make that 8 Aces.... speaking of which - where is malcy today ?
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited May 2014

    Off topic, I'm still reeling from last night's revelation that Richard Nabavi knows what a MILF is.

    He might, like me, only have found out because on this very site a couple of years ago you told us.

    What shocked me was Mr. Nabavi's confession that he no longer wears ties.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,965

    Mr. Observer, worth pointing out there's a rather large overlap between the EU and immigration concerns.

    True enough. I was more taken with the idea that on average UKIP supporters believe that 38% of the UK population is made up of immigrants.

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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited May 2014

    After watching (most of) the presidential candidates debate last night, I am now minded to lend my Euro vote to the Greens. If this helps to push the LibDems into 5th place, all well and good.

    Our LDs are joint largest part of the ALDE group in Europe with 12 of its 85 MEPs. So a major change is coming.
    Was it the teeth?
    http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/929/TV-Gids/article/detail/1278638/2011/06/14/Guy-Verhofstadt-sluit-Zomergasten-af.dhtml

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Dickson, that forbidden fruit tasting sweeter line does ring true (it's similar to gang initiation rituals, which suggest that the gang must *really* be worth joining if you have to go through such an ordeal to become a member).

    However, it's reliant on you actually getting the desired object. If people don't believe you actually will get currency union then the desire may be there, but only in the same way I want to get home and find Olivia Wilde and Jennifer Morrison pillow-fighting over who gets to sleep with me.

    And imagine if Osborne et al. said nothing, Yes won and only then did no currency union become known as the result. Scots would rightly be pissed off. It's fair to make it plain what independence means beforehand so that Scots can make an informed decision.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563

    Off topic, I'm still reeling from last night's revelation that Richard Nabavi knows what a MILF is.

    He might, like me, only have found out because on this very site a couple of years ago you told us.

    What shocked me was Mr. Nabavi's confession that he no longer wears ties.
    Oh.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,451

    Off topic, I'm still reeling from last night's revelation that Richard Nabavi knows what a MILF is.

    In a related note I doubt this picture of Charlotte Leslie will harm her chances.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2629802/The-Tory-MP-Baywatch-North-West-Picture-Charlotte-Leslie-lifeguard-emerges-speaks-importance-exercise.html
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    A research financed by the economic development ministry on how teachers in Southern Italy used the new technologies bought with EU funds!
    On Friday I've to visit a secondary school in Foggia and interview the head-teacher and some of her colleagues...thankfully it's not a primary school full of female teachers talking over each other
    JackW said:

    I've work commitments on Friday...so I can't follow the election night as I hoped. Damn. Same thing for Friday count. I will be free from mid afternoon but the damn train doesn't have wifi connection. So I will only have the phone to check updates.
    Life is unfair!

    May I ask if your work is academic or some squalid, tasteless and rather vulgar attempt at remedying the Italian economy ?

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Llama, you're quite right that Mr. Eagles is a corrupting influence.

    Mr. Observer, that's a rather high guess indeed.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,965

    Off topic, I'm still reeling from last night's revelation that Richard Nabavi knows what a MILF is.

    Nabavi is a Tory. Tories are famous for being more perverted than other politicians. During the 1980s pretty much the entire party looked upon their leader as a mother-figure who they'd like to...

    I always got the impression it was more matron and whips with Maggie and Tory men.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    Populus @PopulusPolls · 18s

    New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 32 (-3); LD 10 (+2); UKIP 13 (=); Oth 9 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140516

    Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide.

    Decent boost for Lib Dems.

    I assume there is comedy weighting on the UKIP VI still.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563

    Off topic, I'm still reeling from last night's revelation that Richard Nabavi knows what a MILF is.

    Nabavi is a Tory. Tories are famous for being more perverted than other politicians. During the 1980s pretty much the entire party looked upon their leader as a mother-figure who they'd like to...

    I always got the impression it was more matron and whips with Maggie and Tory men.

    Most of us Tories went to all boys schools, I think it has a lot to do with that.

    Especially the boarders.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @isam
    "Its Esther McVey"

    Moronic Ignorant Lying Fecker?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    JackW said:

    TGOHF said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    ToryJim said:

    AJK said:

    I hope 'STAY' or 'LEAVE' would be the choice on the referendum ballot. Much more objective than a 'YES' or 'NO' choice.

    For example. 'Do you wish to stay in, or leave the United Kingdom?' STAY? LEAVE? would I suggest produce a higher % for the Union, than 'should Scotland become an Independent country?

    Great point.

    That is what the bright Wendy Alexander realised, but her dim boss Gordon Brown sabotaged her initiative. Pretty much the only occasion when SLab have seriously wrongfooted the SNP in recent history.

    If Unionists had called the Scottish independence referendum (as Wendy was attempting to do), then they could have designed the entire poll: the timing, the legislative format, and cucially, the actual wording of the question.


    (But just to be clear, I do not agree that your wording would be any more "objective" than the actual wording. In fact, in terms of constitutional law, your wording tries to pretend that the Union with England Act never received royal assent.)
    having got everything they wanted the nationalists can't reasonably cry foul.
    Like that will stop them......

    I'm still chuckling over that poll suggesting Salmond is a bigger threat to Independence than Cameron is to the Union.....

    I'm always weary of polls that say X will make me more likely vote Y. People may say that, but in reality when push comes to shove, will it actually have that much of an effect?
    However the fact it keeps Carlotta from frothing so much means it is a bonus. Best just leaving her happy that it feeds her great hatred of Salmond , SNP and SCotland and relieves her inferiority complex. She will be able to pretend she is English easier today.
    Not a fan of polls anymore?

    Is that since the gap between yes and no started widening again?

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/05/poll-of-polls-12-may/

    Perhaps people have started to think about "Prime Minister Salmond"?
    The trend isn't Eck's friend - could be heading for sub 45% yet.
    YES will do very well to edge to 45% .... and frankly 40% is much more likely and with turnout likely to be above 80% a figure in the 35% range shouldn't be ruled out.

    That NO will win conclusively is not in doubt, simply the scale of the victory.

    If it is 55:45 or 60:40 to "No" - who will be the "true Scots" then? :| InnocentFace |:

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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @TSE

    Dirty broken Tories on the slide etc etc*

    It seems the Tories (and Dan Hodges) declaring an election win this week hasn't turned out necessarily to their advantage*





    *MOE
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563

    Mr. Llama, you're quite right that Mr. Eagles is a corrupting influence.

    Mr. Observer, that's a rather high guess indeed.

    You say corrupting, I say educational.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,965

    Mr. Dickson, that forbidden fruit tasting sweeter line does ring true (it's similar to gang initiation rituals, which suggest that the gang must *really* be worth joining if you have to go through such an ordeal to become a member).

    However, it's reliant on you actually getting the desired object. If people don't believe you actually will get currency union then the desire may be there, but only in the same way I want to get home and find Olivia Wilde and Jennifer Morrison pillow-fighting over who gets to sleep with me.

    And imagine if Osborne et al. said nothing, Yes won and only then did no currency union become known as the result. Scots would rightly be pissed off. It's fair to make it plain what independence means beforehand so that Scots can make an informed decision.

    Could not agree more. The Scots need to vote with as much information as possible to hand. What surprises me is why there are not more questions about the SNP's wish for Westminster to have a veto over the Scottish government's financial and economic policies.

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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,451

    Mr. Llama, you're quite right that Mr. Eagles is a corrupting influence.

    Given fruitier aspects of the infamous Morris Dancer manifesto I think that comment strays towards hypocrisy ;)
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Populus @PopulusPolls · 18s

    New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 32 (-3); LD 10 (+2); UKIP 13 (=); Oth 9 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140516

    Good luck with the speech @TSE. Looks a great day for a wedding. And remember, Ukip don't like it up em...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    BobaFett said:

    Populus @PopulusPolls · 18s

    New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 32 (-3); LD 10 (+2); UKIP 13 (=); Oth 9 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140516

    Good luck with the speech @TSE. Looks a great day for a wedding. And remember, Ukip don't like it up em...
    I'm just gutted I'm not allowed to put in any pop music references.
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