It is not arguable that some pollers are wildly out with the UKIP score.. they have a 9-10 point spread on 10-20% of the vote... it is terrible.. far too wide a spread
Like quoting total goals in a football match at 1.5-3.5
But I am not saying that the low scores are wrong and the high are right. I bet for a living, I want to know the truth, not what suits me.
All I would say is that UKIP have always beaten the polling in actual elections in the last 18 months or so
You're confusing UKIP support with Out support. Even if UKIP are polling 20%, the bulk of any hypothetical majority for Out will come from non-UKIP voters. Given what UKIP voters say motivate them to vote for UKIP, which is not especially the EU, underpolling UKIP supporters (even if it is taking place) will not necessarily mean that the figure for In/Out is wrong.
I appreciate that you don't like this poll. That doesn't mean it's wrong.
Dont lower yourself to smug sarcasm, you are one of the good guys.
I would be as suspicious of a poll from Survation showing UKIP VI at 20% and a clear majority for OUT, please dont insult my professional integrity by accusing me of picking data that suits me. I back my opinions with hard cash unlike 90% of people on here
I cant help it that everyone has jumped on this before they thought about it. Right from the start I merely made the point that the pollster that showed this 22 year low is wildly out with the par UKIP score,
Regardless of whether Farage was being "mauled" or having his ego stroked like a pussy cat that is a horrendous faux pas. You don't interrupt a live broadcast. The question though is was it out of frustration with the way things were going of simply time pressures? Either way it suggests that O'flynn is finding the transition from observer to player hard. This doesn't bode well given that he is practically guaranteed to be an MEP after next week.
New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 32 (-3); LD 10 (+2); UKIP 13 (=); Oth 9 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140516
LOL,the tories standing still or falling back in polls must be worrying,you can't rely on labour having a couple of bad poll days to think conservatives doing well,low 30% in polls when tories took the lead had me laughing.
It is not arguable that some pollers are wildly out with the UKIP score.. they have a 9-10 point spread on 10-20% of the vote... it is terrible.. far too wide a spread
Like quoting total goals in a football match at 1.5-3.5
But I am not saying that the low scores are wrong and the high are right. I bet for a living, I want to know the truth, not what suits me.
All I would say is that UKIP have always beaten the polling in actual elections in the last 18 months or so
You're confusing UKIP support with Out support. Even if UKIP are polling 20%, the bulk of any hypothetical majority for Out will come from non-UKIP voters. Given what UKIP voters say motivate them to vote for UKIP, which is not especially the EU, underpolling UKIP supporters (even if it is taking place) will not necessarily mean that the figure for In/Out is wrong.
I appreciate that you don't like this poll. That doesn't mean it's wrong.
Dont lower yourself to smug sarcasm, you are one of the good guys.
I would be as suspicious of a poll from Survation showing UKIP VI at 20% and a clear majority for OUT, please dont insult my professional integrity by accusing me of picking data that suits me. I back my opinions with hard cash unlike 90% of people on here
I cant help it that everyone has jumped on this before they thought about it. Right from the start I merely made the point that the pollster that showed this 22 year low is wildly out with the par UKIP score,
It's one thing to note that UKIP's poll share with IPSOS-MORI is lower than with other pollsters. What you then don't explain is why you think that automatically means that the In/Out share is affected. And still worse, by adjusting In/Out according to the "underpolling" of UKIP, you assume that effect goes beyond a hypothetical underpolling of UKIP supporters and the whole poll is infected by excess Europhilia. This is just rubbish.
Mirror Politics @MirrorPolitics 6m Labour election adviser left red-faced after mis-spelling Ed Miliband's name in Twitter blunder http://mirr.im/1j1wkwI
So, what mauling did Farage receive, and was it an anorak mauling, or one that people who don't know what FPTP stands for will hear, and care, about?
Some guy with the world's most guardianista voice making personal comments then interrupting the answers. Farage should have walked out sooner than I switched off.
It is not arguable that some pollers are wildly out with the UKIP score.. they have a 9-10 point spread on 10-20% of the vote... it is terrible.. far too wide a spread
Like quoting total goals in a football match at 1.5-3.5
But I am not saying that the low scores are wrong and the high are right. I bet for a living, I want to know the truth, not what suits me.
All I would say is that UKIP have always beaten the polling in actual elections in the last 18 months or so
You're confusing UKIP support with Out support. Even if UKIP are polling 20%, the bulk of any hypothetical majority for Out will come from non-UKIP voters. Given what UKIP voters say motivate them to vote for UKIP, which is not especially the EU, underpolling UKIP supporters (even if it is taking place) will not necessarily mean that the figure for In/Out is wrong.
I appreciate that you don't like this poll. That doesn't mean it's wrong.
Dont lower yourself to smug sarcasm, you are one of the good guys.
I would be as suspicious of a poll from Survation showing UKIP VI at 20% and a clear majority for OUT, please dont insult my professional integrity by accusing me of picking data that suits me. I back my opinions with hard cash unlike 90% of people on here
I cant help it that everyone has jumped on this before they thought about it. Right from the start I merely made the point that the pollster that showed this 22 year low is wildly out with the par UKIP score,
It's one thing to note that UKIP's poll share with IPSOS-MORI is lower than with other pollsters. What you then don't explain is why you think that automatically means that the In/Out share is affected. And still worse, by adjusting In/Out according to the "underpolling" of UKIP, you assume that effect goes beyond a hypothetical underpolling of UKIP supporters and the whole poll is infected by excess Europhilia. This is just rubbish.
You're saying under-polling Ukip won't effect the in/out score?
The BBC is reporting that Jesmond is a favoured location for Yuppies. Geordie Yuppies? Does that make them Guppies?
Jesmond's more Rah than Yuppies. They moved up on mass once Princess Beatrice went to uni there, although the university was full of them even before then...
Wow, just listened to the entire James O'Brien interview. I don't say this about many people, but the guy comes over as a massive, massive ####. It was like a Fox News interview of a Democrat. He interrupted Farage, wouldn't give him time to speak, through in disparaging remarks, sighed and eye-rolled, and then gave a monologue at the end repeating his views without input from his guest. Oh, and then he said he was bringing the interview to an end before jumping out with a question on expenses. Does this idiot do this with all his guests, or just UKIP leaders?
''Frankly it's absolutely disgraceful that the Met Police Serious Traffic Incident Unit didn't attend that car crash of an interview.''
It has to be said though that UKIP's rank amateurishness, the impression people have of a hastily put together organisation of concerned citizens outside the Westminster bubble, is part of their appeal.
You're saying under-polling Ukip won't effect the in/out score?
A lot depends how the underpolling is done. If UKIP support is being discounted because it is incorrectly assumed that past non-voters will continue not to vote, the question then is whether in fact they would vote in a referendum (and whether the pollster had assumed that they would nevertheless vote in a referendum despite being treated as a non-voter).
If UKIP support is being discounted because it is incorrectly assumed that the voter will in practice revert to another party, that will have no impact on the in/out score.
If UKIP support is being discounted because of an incorrect belief of oversampling, then the In/Out score will be wrong, but it won't be one for one, because other parties' supporters are divided between In and Out also.
Note that not all Kippers would vote Out either. Presumably this extends to the underpolled too.
Someone better than me can do the maths, but it would not be a one for one relationship or anything like, even on the most optimistic assumptions for the Outies.
Farage's car crash seems to have crashed the servers hosting the video.
Car crash? He accounted for himself very well, and gave good, honest responses to every question in a matter of fact way. In fact, I imagine most audience members will give him credit for not reacting to the continuously rude behaviour of the host. Not surprisingly, the anti-UKIP brigade have one of their kindred in this O'Brien chap and will think he's fantastically exposed UKIP because they won't bother to listen to Farage's answers. I suspect most other listeners will have thought he was a twat, and Farage made good points on immigration and integration.
James O'Brien Cunnus Maximus Interruptor But did his bit to advance the UKIP cause today - just as the Guardian's 'useful' intervention in the USA elections once did!
Watched the supposed "car crash" Farage interview. Barely a dent in the bonnet. Not comfortable, but hardly calamitous.
Jesus, people are just desperate for Farage to trip up, aren't they? Just really really desperate. It is very revealing. They fear and loathe him so much it warps their judgement - and that includes many on here.
Seemed like a score draw to me. But unlike some of the kippers I don't go moist at the gusset at every utterance from Nige.
Watched the supposed "car crash" Farage interview. Barely a dent in the bonnet. Not comfortable, but hardly calamitous.
Jesus, people are just desperate for Farage to trip up, aren't they? Just really really desperate. It is very revealing. They fear and loathe him so much it warps their judgement - and that includes many on here.
How true sean,yesterday a lot of pb posters(especially the tory one's) were going on about moaning kippers,all I see on here is pb world moaning at ukip - lol
I reckon the decline in opposition to the EU is directly related to the rise in the prominence of UKIP. Once you see who agrees with you, you change your mind.
''The problem for our Betters is that the more they rant about UKIP the more it tempts ordinary Brits to give Farage a vote, just to stick it up all those pompous arses.''
I think what really gets our Betters isn't that we want Farage - I'm not sure that we do, particularly.
''Frankly it's absolutely disgraceful that the Met Police Serious Traffic Incident Unit didn't attend that car crash of an interview.''
It has to be said though that UKIP's rank amateurishness, the impression people have of a hastily put together organisation of concerned citizens outside the Westminster bubble, is part of their appeal.
Indeed.
However some Kippers are like a teenage lad - full of odd views, with some questionable friends who squeeze their spots in public and then they wonder why the parents are cautious about them borrowing the family car.
''The problem for our Betters is that the more they rant about UKIP the more it tempts ordinary Brits to give Farage a vote, just to stick it up all those pompous arses.''
I think what really gets our Betters isn't that we want Farage - I'm not sure that we do, particularly.
It is not arguable that some pollers are wildly out with the UKIP score.. they have a 9-10 point spread on 10-20% of the vote... it is terrible.. far too wide a spread
Like quoting total goals in a football match at 1.5-3.5
But I am not saying that the low scores are wrong and the high are right. I bet for a living, I want to know the truth, not what suits me.
All I would say is that UKIP have always beaten the polling in actual elections in the last 18 months or so
.
It's one thing to note that UKIP's poll share with IPSOS-MORI is lower than with other pollsters. What you then don't explain is why you think that automatically means that the In/Out share is affected. And still worse, by adjusting In/Out according to the "underpolling" of UKIP, you assume that effect goes beyond a hypothetical underpolling of UKIP supporters and the whole poll is infected by excess Europhilia. This is just rubbish.
Dont resort to "philias" etc please
Im not saying I know everything I am trying to work it out
In the last year their have been 19 IN/OUT polls
The average OUT score divided by the UKIP VI score on that day with that pollster is 3.25
This is lower when there is a high UKIP score and higher when there is a low UKIP score
The average UKIP score is 13, so with a score of 11 you would expect the ratio to be higher than 3.36
YouGov and IPSOS have lower UKIP scores and lower OUT scores
This latestpol had a very low "DONT KNOW". The average is 16, this was 10
Survation & Opinium have higher Kipper scores and Higher OUT scores
I reckon the decline in opposition to the EU is directly related to the rise in the prominence of UKIP. Once you see who agrees with you, you change your mind.
@MalcolmTucker_: Enjoyed my visit with @Ed_Milliband and his @UKLabor team. I was inspired by the brilliant, tiresome young women and men I met at HQ!
Isn't that how they spell labor in America ?
Sorry, what's your point, I've obviously missed it?
You better ask scott P.
I suspect he noticed the use of the word tiresome rather than tireless which was the point of the joke, just couldn't work out the point of your comment.
As a LD voter for the last three general elections, I have to say that the LDs were the Kippers once. The NOTAs boosted the vote and we didn't bother about the idiosyncratic people and occasional odd policies you had. So you're complaining about Ukip stealing you clothes and coaxing your people away - bloody apostates, the lot of them!
@MalcolmTucker_: Enjoyed my visit with @Ed_Milliband and his @UKLabor team. I was inspired by the brilliant, tiresome young women and men I met at HQ!
Isn't that how they spell labor in America ?
Sorry, what's your point, I've obviously missed it?
You better ask scott P.
I suspect he noticed the use of the word tiresome rather than tireless which was the point of the joke, just couldn't work out the point of your comment.
Do listen right to the end for the hapless spin doctor trying to stop it
Well the first mistake/lie is that the guy that said the "poof" remark isnt a councillor, he was a candidate at last years locals
Another error from O Brien is that I would bet 1/100 that Farages childrens first language is English.
He says that Kids in Tower HAmlets whose first language is not English, but can speak it, are exactly the same as Farages.
They're not
I also suspect that Farage's kids could speak fluent English a lot earlier than many of the kids in Tower Hamlets.
The other obvious lie the guy made was that Farage didn't like people speaking foreign languages. That's not true. His issue was that none of the people were speaking English. This seems like a massive shot in the foot for the anti-UKIP brigade. I suspect a very very large chunk of British people have felt a slight discomfort in immigrant heavy areas in the UK having been in this situation. Calling them all racist won't help their side.
Watched the supposed "car crash" Farage interview. Barely a dent in the bonnet. Not comfortable, but hardly calamitous.
Jesus, people are just desperate for Farage to trip up, aren't they? Just really really desperate. It is very revealing. They fear and loathe him so much it warps their judgement - and that includes many on here.
It sure is revealing
I liked the interview.. the interviewer made numerous errors.
The bloke he insisted was a UKIP councillor was actually candidate at last years locals
His whole "but your kids are the same" argument relied on Farage's household being one that speaks German at home, which it isnt
He came across like a lefty Guardian type that didnt understand business outside of the media.
People that are inclined to vote UKIP think of people like him as wallies, anyone who thought that was a car crash is is entitled to do so , Id say it was a vote winner
@MalcolmTucker_: Enjoyed my visit with @Ed_Milliband and his @UKLabor team. I was inspired by the brilliant, tiresome young women and men I met at HQ!
Isn't that how they spell labor in America ?
Sorry, what's your point, I've obviously missed it?
You better ask scott P.
I suspect he noticed the use of the word tiresome rather than tireless which was the point of the joke, just couldn't work out the point of your comment.
Well you wouldn't,if your a tory fan.
Well explain it. What point were you making when you highlighted the American spelling of Labour.
On topic: The most notable thing about the graph is the fact that sentiment has hardly changed in 20 years. Given the severity of the Eurozone crisis, it's surprising that there wasn't more of a move towards Out in 2011-2012. I imagine the fall since then is because the Eurozone travails have been out of the news.
Given the latest dire data from the eurozone, it won't be long before Britain is the most europhile nation in the EU, given that we have avoided the calamity of the euro, the albatross of banking union, but still get the benefits of the single market.
Perhaps all the other members will eventually leave the EU, leaving us as the only state still inside. They'll have to move the Strasbourg parliament to Swindon.
The benefits of the single market over a free trade deal will be worth less and less as that dire economic data continues. Will it really be worth all those regulations over 95% of our economy so we can maintain the tiniest influence over the 5% exporting to this disastrous economy?
Where are you getting your 5%? 50% of our exports are to the EU: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/itis/international-trade-in-services/2011/sty-international-trade-in-services.html And a disastrous economy is still an economy and still has to import from us, or at least from somewhere. UKIP acknowledge this by saying we will join EFTA/EEA. What they don't acknowledge is that that entails signing up to EU regulation over everything, and unlimited immigration from the EU. I don't understand why this is never pointed out when Salmond is regularly crucified over analogous but less crucial flaws in his plans.
EFTA membership is not the same as EEA membership and does not require free movement of people, or applying EU regulation to the domestic economy.
I know that, but so what? EEA membership does require both those things and UKIP have expressly agreed to sign up for it.
No they have not. In fact it is one area where I think UKIP are probably mistaken as their overview of the options apparently rejected EEA membership.
OK ... they seem to get an easier ride than Salmond gets over not having policies where they really need to have policies. But we are going to need a trade agreement with the EU and the EU are going to want unrestricted immigration in that agreement. The alternative of writing off exports which are "only" 13% of our economy is true fruitcakery.
I was intending to vote Ukip in the Euros for fun and then revert to the LDs for the general election. But the sillier that Ukip become and the more hysterical the opposition, the more I'm tempted to stick with them for devilment.
Yes, I know it's not grown-up or clever but it's becoming irresistible.
OK ... they seem to get an easier ride than Salmond gets over not having policies where they really need to have policies. But we are going to need a trade agreement with the EU and the EU are going to want unrestricted immigration in that agreement. The alternative of writing off exports which are "only" 13% of our economy is true fruitcakery.
It is rather fruitcakery to think that even without an agreement on unrestricted migration we would be writing off 13% - or even 1% - of our economy. The EU will not stop trading with us simply because we tighten our immigration policy. They cannot afford to because of that huge trade imbalance in their favour. EU membership has not helped us in any meanignful way in terms of trade because the small gains we have made in terms of access to the single market (most of which we would have had anyway) have been lost by the restrictions put on wider trade.
Watched the supposed "car crash" Farage interview. Barely a dent in the bonnet. Not comfortable, but hardly calamitous.
Jesus, people are just desperate for Farage to trip up, aren't they? Just really really desperate. It is very revealing. They fear and loathe him so much it warps their judgement - and that includes many on here.
[snip]
He came across like a lefty Guardian type that didnt understand business outside of the media.
People that are inclined to vote UKIP think of people like him as wallies, anyone who thought that was a car crash is is entitled to do so , Id say it was a vote winner
James O'Brien once labelled UKIP as the "BNP in better clothes" – hardly surprising he gave Farage a hard time.
O’Brian’s interruptions and bored contempt throughout was indicative, as was the accusations of racism. – “ A vote winner” not so sure, probably not good for UKIP, but certainly not a car crash imho. Put it down to experience, not all interviews will be as easy as Clegg’s poor effort.
New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 32 (-3); LD 10 (+2); UKIP 13 (=); Oth 9 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140516
LOL,the tories standing still or falling back in polls must be worrying,you can't rely on labour having a couple of bad poll days to think conservatives doing well,low 30% in polls when tories took the lead had me laughing.
Did it have you laughing at the time, on here, or are you a proponent of aftertiming?
Watched the supposed "car crash" Farage interview. Barely a dent in the bonnet. Not comfortable, but hardly calamitous.
Jesus, people are just desperate for Farage to trip up, aren't they? Just really really desperate. It is very revealing. They fear and loathe him so much it warps their judgement - and that includes many on here.
[snip]
He came across like a lefty Guardian type that didnt understand business outside of the media.
People that are inclined to vote UKIP think of people like him as wallies, anyone who thought that was a car crash is is entitled to do so , Id say it was a vote winner
James O'Brien once labelled UKIP as the "BNP in better clothes" – hardly surprising he gave Farage a hard time.
O’Brian’s interruptions and bored contempt throughout was indicative, as was the accusations of racism. – “ A vote winner” not so sure, probably not good for UKIP, but certainly not a car crash imho. Put it down to experience, not all interviews will be as easy as Clegg’s poor effort.
New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 32 (-3); LD 10 (+2); UKIP 13 (=); Oth 9 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140516
LOL,the tories standing still or falling back in polls must be worrying,you can't rely on labour having a couple of bad poll days to think conservatives doing well,low 30% in polls when tories took the lead had me laughing.
Did it have you laughing at the time, on here, or are you a proponent of aftertiming?
It did,but I like to see all 3 main parties suffer lately,I had a soft spot for the tory position but some pb smugness has driven me for the underdog.
OK ... they seem to get an easier ride than Salmond gets over not having policies where they really need to have policies. But we are going to need a trade agreement with the EU and the EU are going to want unrestricted immigration in that agreement. The alternative of writing off exports which are "only" 13% of our economy is true fruitcakery.
It is rather fruitcakery to think that even without an agreement on unrestricted migration we would be writing off 13% - or even 1% - of our economy. The EU will not stop trading with us simply because we tighten our immigration policy. They cannot afford to because of that huge trade imbalance in their favour. EU membership has not helped us in any meanignful way in terms of trade because the small gains we have made in terms of access to the single market (most of which we would have had anyway) have been lost by the restrictions put on wider trade.
The suggestion that we could/would be writing off 13% of the economy was Socrates' not mine.
Neither party can afford to stop trading with the other.
"Small gains in terms of access to the single market..." it is highly likely that EU membership has effectively been running to stand still, i.e. that we would have made large losses without it.
@MalcolmTucker_: Enjoyed my visit with @Ed_Milliband and his @UKLabor team. I was inspired by the brilliant, tiresome young women and men I met at HQ!
Isn't that how they spell labor in America ?
Sorry, what's your point, I've obviously missed it?
You better ask scott P.
I suspect he noticed the use of the word tiresome rather than tireless which was the point of the joke, just couldn't work out the point of your comment.
Well you wouldn't,if your a tory fan.
Well explain it. What point were you making when you highlighted the American spelling of Labour.
How poor of a post from scotty to post,just to have a go at the party he hate's,got it now.
I would just like to recommend that all the CyberNats on here read a great book: When Prophecy Fails. It's all about how people react when their expected outcome (end of the world/end of the union) does not come to pass.
@MalcolmTucker_: Enjoyed my visit with @Ed_Milliband and his @UKLabor team. I was inspired by the brilliant, tiresome young women and men I met at HQ!
Isn't that how they spell labor in America ?
Sorry, what's your point, I've obviously missed it?
You better ask scott P.
I suspect he noticed the use of the word tiresome rather than tireless which was the point of the joke, just couldn't work out the point of your comment.
Well you wouldn't,if your a tory fan.
Well explain it. What point were you making when you highlighted the American spelling of Labour.
How poor of a post from scotty to post,just to have a go at the party he hate's,got it now.
Listened to most of the interview and TBH thought it was quite good on both sides - James was well-briefed and raised a wide range of awkward questions, Farage was poised and responded to sustained challenging questions calmly. There were some evasions, but most people would evade a bit in that sort of interivew.
The only problem is that it focused exclusively on the "awkward questions" and whatever positive case UKIP feels it has didn't get a hearing. If UKIP starts to be registered as "slightly dodgy outift" with voters who aren't very interested anyway, they'll underperform.
That said, it's a local radio station with maybe 1% of the electorate tuned in.
@MalcolmTucker_: Enjoyed my visit with @Ed_Milliband and his @UKLabor team. I was inspired by the brilliant, tiresome young women and men I met at HQ!
Isn't that how they spell labor in America ?
Sorry, what's your point, I've obviously missed it?
You better ask scott P.
I suspect he noticed the use of the word tiresome rather than tireless which was the point of the joke, just couldn't work out the point of your comment.
Well you wouldn't,if your a tory fan.
Well explain it. What point were you making when you highlighted the American spelling of Labour.
How poor of a post from scotty to post,just to have a go at the party he hate's,got it now.
@MalcolmTucker_: Enjoyed my visit with @Ed_Milliband and his @UKLabor team. I was inspired by the brilliant, tiresome young women and men I met at HQ!
Isn't that how they spell labor in America ?
Sorry, what's your point, I've obviously missed it?
You better ask scott P.
I suspect he noticed the use of the word tiresome rather than tireless which was the point of the joke, just couldn't work out the point of your comment.
Well you wouldn't,if your a tory fan.
Well explain it. What point were you making when you highlighted the American spelling of Labour.
How poor of a post from scotty to post,just to have a go at the party he hate's,got it now.
You were right about the American spelling, they drop the ‘U’ – but what is all this nonsense about ‘hatred’, it was a spoof tweet taking the mick out of Labour’s new campaign manager that can’t even get his employers name correctly.
I was intending to vote Ukip in the Euros for fun and then revert to the LDs for the general election. But the sillier that Ukip become and the more hysterical the opposition, the more I'm tempted to stick with them for devilment.
Yes, I know it's not grown-up or clever but it's becoming irresistible.
I'm so looking forward to the election results this month. I'll have to tune into the Today programme every morning for a week. :-)
@MalcolmTucker_: Enjoyed my visit with @Ed_Milliband and his @UKLabor team. I was inspired by the brilliant, tiresome young women and men I met at HQ!
Isn't that how they spell labor in America ?
Sorry, what's your point, I've obviously missed it?
You better ask scott P.
I suspect he noticed the use of the word tiresome rather than tireless which was the point of the joke, just couldn't work out the point of your comment.
Well you wouldn't,if your a tory fan.
Well explain it. What point were you making when you highlighted the American spelling of Labour.
How poor of a post from scotty to post,just to have a go at the party he hate's,got it now.
You were right about the American spelling, they drop the ‘U’ – but what is all this nonsense about ‘hatred’, it was a spoof tweet taking the mick out of Labour’s new campaign manager that can’t even get his employers name correct.
Sorry,but when someone is posting day after day,with negative tweets on the same party,then 'hatred' must be the right word,I would use the same word for tim for his obsession with the tories.
@MalcolmTucker_: Enjoyed my visit with @Ed_Milliband and his @UKLabor team. I was inspired by the brilliant, tiresome young women and men I met at HQ!
Isn't that how they spell labor in America ?
Sorry, what's your point, I've obviously missed it?
You better ask scott P.
I suspect he noticed the use of the word tiresome rather than tireless which was the point of the joke, just couldn't work out the point of your comment.
Well you wouldn't,if your a tory fan.
Well explain it. What point were you making when you highlighted the American spelling of Labour.
How poor of a post from scotty to post,just to have a go at the party he hate's,got it now.
I would just like to recommend that all the CyberNats on here read a great book: When Prophecy Fails. It's all about how people react when their expected outcome (end of the world/end of the union) does not come to pass.
@MalcolmTucker_: Enjoyed my visit with @Ed_Milliband and his @UKLabor team. I was inspired by the brilliant, tiresome young women and men I met at HQ!
Isn't that how they spell labor in America ?
Sorry, what's your point, I've obviously missed it?
You better ask scott P.
I suspect he noticed the use of the word tiresome rather than tireless which was the point of the joke, just couldn't work out the point of your comment.
Well you wouldn't,if your a tory fan.
Well explain it. What point were you making when you highlighted the American spelling of Labour.
How poor of a post from scotty to post,just to have a go at the party he hate's,got it now.
"... upon election, the Cameron administration would fight global warming, tooth and nail…’If it were not for England,’ he continued, ‘the world would not be in the state it is in.’…England, he said, having started the Industrial Revolution, led the rest of the world down the path toward pollution, environmental degradation and global warming. It was therefore England’s obligation to take the lead in undoing the damage.”
Well, three guesses who that might have been. But it’s striking in retrospect; this revelation about the kind of thinking that underlay the Tories’ philosophy in those first heady days in office. If Tory cabinet ministers really did think that England owes the world an historic debt by dint of being the first to industrialise, it sets in context what has followed and the ideology that has invested energy policy in both bits of the Coalition until very recently."
"Nigel Farage has just appeared on the James O’Brien show, and it’s one of the most amazing radio interviews I’ve ever heard.
It started with the Ukip leader attempting to defend his party over charges of racism. It ended with his Communications Director Patrick O’Flynn interrupting the interview live on air and then, according to LBC staff, physically dragging him out of the studio off camera.
What happened in between has effectively finished Nigel Farage’s political career. To understand why, you have to listen to the interview in its entirety. In particular, the moment when O’Brien pulls the Ukip leader into another attempt to defend his statement that people would rightly be alarmed if a group of Romanians moved next door."
Tom Byrne @_TomByrne_ 4m James O'Brian surely has to be a favourite to take over from Paxman after eviscerating Nigel Farage this morning. Outstanding stuff #ukip
"... upon election, the Cameron administration would fight global warming, tooth and nail…’If it were not for England,’ he continued, ‘the world would not be in the state it is in.’…England, he said, having started the Industrial Revolution, led the rest of the world down the path toward pollution, environmental degradation and global warming. It was therefore England’s obligation to take the lead in undoing the damage.”
Well, three guesses who that might have been. But it’s striking in retrospect; this revelation about the kind of thinking that underlay the Tories’ philosophy in those first heady days in office. If Tory cabinet ministers really did think that England owes the world an historic debt by dint of being the first to industrialise, it sets in context what has followed and the ideology that has invested energy policy in both bits of the Coalition until very recently."
I'd assume it was Ken Clarke (doesn't sound like George Young or William Hague, and I'm not sure who else fits the criteria of 'once and future Cabinet Minister').
Not necessarily representative of Cameron's thinking.
Tom Byrne @_TomByrne_ 4m James O'Brian surely has to be a favourite to take over from Paxman after eviscerating Nigel Farage this morning. Outstanding stuff #ukip
Wouldn't we laugh if UKIP poll numbers go up again.
"Nigel Farage has just appeared on the James O’Brien show, and it’s one of the most amazing radio interviews I’ve ever heard.
It started with the Ukip leader attempting to defend his party over charges of racism. It ended with his Communications Director Patrick O’Flynn interrupting the interview live on air and then, according to LBC staff, physically dragging him out of the studio off camera.
What happened in between has effectively finished Nigel Farage’s political career. To understand why, you have to listen to the interview in its entirety. In particular, the moment when O’Brien pulls the Ukip leader into another attempt to defend his statement that people would rightly be alarmed if a group of Romanians moved next door."
The problem for Farage and UKIP is that the bulk of people won't hear the assertive nature of the interview, all they will see is reports that a "minder" tried to stop it at the end and will draw an unfortunate conclusion. The only good thing is that for most people it won't intrude upon their consciousness at all.
"Nigel Farage has just appeared on the James O’Brien show, and it’s one of the most amazing radio interviews I’ve ever heard.
It started with the Ukip leader attempting to defend his party over charges of racism. It ended with his Communications Director Patrick O’Flynn interrupting the interview live on air and then, according to LBC staff, physically dragging him out of the studio off camera.
What happened in between has effectively finished Nigel Farage’s political career. To understand why, you have to listen to the interview in its entirety. In particular, the moment when O’Brien pulls the Ukip leader into another attempt to defend his statement that people would rightly be alarmed if a group of Romanians moved next door."
The problem for Farage and UKIP is that the bulk of people won't hear the assertive nature of the interview, all they will see is reports that a "minder" tried to stop it at the end and will draw an unfortunate conclusion. The only good thing is that for most people it won't intrude upon their consciousness at all.
The bulk of people won't know an interview took place.
Listened to most of the interview and TBH thought it was quite good on both sides - James was well-briefed and raised a wide range of awkward questions, Farage was poised and responded to sustained challenging questions calmly. There were some evasions, but most people would evade a bit in that sort of interivew.
The only problem is that it focused exclusively on the "awkward questions" and whatever positive case UKIP feels it has didn't get a hearing. If UKIP starts to be registered as "slightly dodgy outift" with voters who aren't very interested anyway, they'll underperform.
That said, it's a local radio station with maybe 1% of the electorate tuned in.
"Mr Farage - on immigration, how do you explain the similarity in language and tone of your recent leaflet campaign with that of the National Front and the BNP? For a party that seeks to dissociate itself from those racist parties why does UKIP mimic their approach? Although UKIP may not be racist, why wouldn't your leaflets appeal to racists?"
"... upon election, the Cameron administration would fight global warming, tooth and nail…’If it were not for England,’ he continued, ‘the world would not be in the state it is in.’…England, he said, having started the Industrial Revolution, led the rest of the world down the path toward pollution, environmental degradation and global warming. It was therefore England’s obligation to take the lead in undoing the damage.”
Well, three guesses who that might have been. But it’s striking in retrospect; this revelation about the kind of thinking that underlay the Tories’ philosophy in those first heady days in office. If Tory cabinet ministers really did think that England owes the world an historic debt by dint of being the first to industrialise, it sets in context what has followed and the ideology that has invested energy policy in both bits of the Coalition until very recently."
I'd assume it was Ken Clarke (doesn't sound like George Young or William Hague, and I'm not sure who else fits the criteria of 'once and future Cabinet Minister').
Not necessarily representative of Cameron's thinking.
Mr. Isam, without commenting on the interview (not interested enough to listen to it) I hope they don't go for Paxman Mark 2. Paxman was full of himself, more interested in catching people out and scalp-hunting than actually interviewing them. His 'interview' with the Jesus and Mo cartoonist was a new low, where he attacked the cartoonist for being 'offensive' and never once raised any point in favour of freedom of speech (not just in the interview but the piece beforehand, there was just one mention of that during the whole Jesus and Mo section).
Not a Robinson fan as political editor but when he was stand-in Newsnight presenter I thought he did a much better job of chairing a discussion than the regulars, and was less full of himself and more measured than them.
"Nigel Farage has just appeared on the James O’Brien show, and it’s one of the most amazing radio interviews I’ve ever heard.
It started with the Ukip leader attempting to defend his party over charges of racism. It ended with his Communications Director Patrick O’Flynn interrupting the interview live on air and then, according to LBC staff, physically dragging him out of the studio off camera.
What happened in between has effectively finished Nigel Farage’s political career. To understand why, you have to listen to the interview in its entirety. In particular, the moment when O’Brien pulls the Ukip leader into another attempt to defend his statement that people would rightly be alarmed if a group of Romanians moved next door."
The problem for Farage and UKIP is that the bulk of people won't hear the assertive nature of the interview, all they will see is reports that a "minder" tried to stop it at the end and will draw an unfortunate conclusion. The only good thing is that for most people it won't intrude upon their consciousness at all.
The bulk of people won't know an interview took place.
The way the national press/media have attacked ukip in the last few weeks,the bulk of people will know with the press,wouldn't surprise me the bbc get hold of a clip ;-)
Comments
I would be as suspicious of a poll from Survation showing UKIP VI at 20% and a clear majority for OUT, please dont insult my professional integrity by accusing me of picking data that suits me. I back my opinions with hard cash unlike 90% of people on here
I cant help it that everyone has jumped on this before they thought about it. Right from the start I merely made the point that the pollster that showed this 22 year low is wildly out with the par UKIP score,
Labour election adviser left red-faced after mis-spelling Ed Miliband's name in Twitter blunder http://mirr.im/1j1wkwI
At least Axelrod didn't refer to him as David.
@johnprescott: 13 years ago today I went to Rhyl and connected with the electorate
It has to be said though that UKIP's rank amateurishness, the impression people have of a hastily put together organisation of concerned citizens outside the Westminster bubble, is part of their appeal.
If UKIP support is being discounted because it is incorrectly assumed that the voter will in practice revert to another party, that will have no impact on the in/out score.
If UKIP support is being discounted because of an incorrect belief of oversampling, then the In/Out score will be wrong, but it won't be one for one, because other parties' supporters are divided between In and Out also.
Note that not all Kippers would vote Out either. Presumably this extends to the underpolled too.
Someone better than me can do the maths, but it would not be a one for one relationship or anything like, even on the most optimistic assumptions for the Outies.
@MalcolmTucker_: Enjoyed my visit with @Ed_Milliband and his @UKLabor team. I was inspired by the brilliant, tiresome young women and men I met at HQ!
http://www.lbc.co.uk/watch-nigel-farage-v-james-obrien-live-from-1130-90532
Isn't that how they spell labor in America ?
Agreed. Sometimes I struggle to think what is behind that visceral, visceral antipathy.
Cunnus Maximus Interruptor
But did his bit to advance the UKIP cause today - just as the Guardian's 'useful' intervention in the USA elections once did!
How true sean,yesterday a lot of pb posters(especially the tory one's) were going on about moaning kippers,all I see on here is pb world moaning at ukip - lol
I think what really gets our Betters isn't that we want Farage - I'm not sure that we do, particularly.
Its that we don;t want them.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/nothing-much-to-see-here-north-east-in.html
This level of workrate is not going to be maintained.
However some Kippers are like a teenage lad - full of odd views, with some questionable friends who squeeze their spots in public and then they wonder why the parents are cautious about them borrowing the family car.
Im not saying I know everything I am trying to work it out
In the last year their have been 19 IN/OUT polls
The average OUT score divided by the UKIP VI score on that day with that pollster is 3.25
This is lower when there is a high UKIP score and higher when there is a low UKIP score
The average UKIP score is 13, so with a score of 11 you would expect the ratio to be higher than 3.36
YouGov and IPSOS have lower UKIP scores and lower OUT scores
This latestpol had a very low "DONT KNOW". The average is 16, this was 10
Survation & Opinium have higher Kipper scores and Higher OUT scores
Poll. OUT. UKIP. Factor.
IPS 37.00 11 3.36
YG 38.00 15 2.53
SU 46.00 18 2.56
YG 38.00 12 3.17
YG 38.00 12 3.17
YG 37.00 11 3.36
YG 36.00 11 3.27
YG 36.00 10 3.60
YG 39.00 13 3.00
YG 39.00 12 3.25
LA 41.00
YG 43.00 11 3.91
YG 39.00 11 3.55
YG 44.00 11 4.00
OP 53.00 17 3.12
YG 45.00 11 4.09
YG 46.00 12 3.83
SU 51.00
SU 50.00 22 2.27
YG 45.00 14 3.21
CR 46.00 19 2.42
He says that Kids in Tower HAmlets whose first language is not English, but can speak it, are exactly the same as Farages.
They're not
"Will you submit to a fall audit"
O'Flynn interrupts.
At least Farage had the sense to wave O'Flynn down and answer the question, but that won't be picked up by most listeners.
As a LD voter for the last three general elections, I have to say that the LDs were the Kippers once. The NOTAs boosted the vote and we didn't bother about the idiosyncratic people and occasional odd policies you had. So you're complaining about Ukip stealing you clothes and coaxing your people away - bloody apostates, the lot of them!
"Mark Carney told parliament that everyone who knew how the interest rate machine works has been made redundant and they have lost the instructions."
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/bank-of-england-doesnt-know-how-to-raise-interest-rates-2014051586580
The other obvious lie the guy made was that Farage didn't like people speaking foreign languages. That's not true. His issue was that none of the people were speaking English. This seems like a massive shot in the foot for the anti-UKIP brigade. I suspect a very very large chunk of British people have felt a slight discomfort in immigrant heavy areas in the UK having been in this situation. Calling them all racist won't help their side.
You cannot say that about other parts of Europe.
"Immigration is a class issue"
It sure is revealing
I liked the interview.. the interviewer made numerous errors.
The bloke he insisted was a UKIP councillor was actually candidate at last years locals
His whole "but your kids are the same" argument relied on Farage's household being one that speaks German at home, which it isnt
He came across like a lefty Guardian type that didnt understand business outside of the media.
People that are inclined to vote UKIP think of people like him as wallies, anyone who thought that was a car crash is is entitled to do so , Id say it was a vote winner
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Yes, I know it's not grown-up or clever but it's becoming irresistible.
The mass immigration we set in train has shafted the class we claim to represent.....??
Some have been saying this for a looooong time
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/16/ukip-divided-left-right-cut-labour-support
O’Brian’s interruptions and bored contempt throughout was indicative, as was the accusations of racism. – “ A vote winner” not so sure, probably not good for UKIP, but certainly not a car crash imho. Put it down to experience, not all interviews will be as easy as Clegg’s poor effort.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100271777/when-labour-loses-in-2015-it-wont-be-ed-milibands-fault-it-will-be-labours/
Neither party can afford to stop trading with the other.
"Small gains in terms of access to the single market..." it is highly likely that EU membership has effectively been running to stand still, i.e. that we would have made large losses without it.
The only problem is that it focused exclusively on the "awkward questions" and whatever positive case UKIP feels it has didn't get a hearing. If UKIP starts to be registered as "slightly dodgy outift" with voters who aren't very interested anyway, they'll underperform.
That said, it's a local radio station with maybe 1% of the electorate tuned in.
Sorry,but when someone is posting day after day,with negative tweets on the same party,then 'hatred' must be the right word,I would use the same word for tim for his obsession with the tories.
"... upon election, the Cameron administration would fight global warming, tooth and nail…’If it were not for England,’ he continued, ‘the world would not be in the state it is in.’…England, he said, having started the Industrial Revolution, led the rest of the world down the path toward pollution, environmental degradation and global warming. It was therefore England’s obligation to take the lead in undoing the damage.”
Well, three guesses who that might have been. But it’s striking in retrospect; this revelation about the kind of thinking that underlay the Tories’ philosophy in those first heady days in office. If Tory cabinet ministers really did think that England owes the world an historic debt by dint of being the first to industrialise, it sets in context what has followed and the ideology that has invested energy policy in both bits of the Coalition until very recently."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/david-camerons-sacred-cows-exposed-by-freakonomics/
Dave and his mob have since grown up. The Greens, the yoghurt knitters and Miliblob have yet to make that transition.
Adrian Hilton @Adrian_Hilton
Speaking as a Tory, I think @LBC's disgraceful interview with @Ukip's @Nigel_Farage showed @mrjamesob to be rude, priggish and conceited
This is fantastic!
"Nigel Farage has just appeared on the James O’Brien show, and it’s one of the most amazing radio interviews I’ve ever heard.
It started with the Ukip leader attempting to defend his party over charges of racism. It ended with his Communications Director Patrick O’Flynn interrupting the interview live on air and then, according to LBC staff, physically dragging him out of the studio off camera.
What happened in between has effectively finished Nigel Farage’s political career. To understand why, you have to listen to the interview in its entirety. In particular, the moment when O’Brien pulls the Ukip leader into another attempt to defend his statement that people would rightly be alarmed if a group of Romanians moved next door."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100271810/nigel-farage-has-just-had-his-nick-griffin-moment/
Tom Byrne @_TomByrne_ 4m
James O'Brian surely has to be a favourite to take over from Paxman after eviscerating Nigel Farage this morning. Outstanding stuff #ukip
I'd assume it was Ken Clarke (doesn't sound like George Young or William Hague, and I'm not sure who else fits the criteria of 'once and future Cabinet Minister').
Not necessarily representative of Cameron's thinking.
Colin Furze makes real life Wolverine Claws
Mr. Isam, without commenting on the interview (not interested enough to listen to it) I hope they don't go for Paxman Mark 2. Paxman was full of himself, more interested in catching people out and scalp-hunting than actually interviewing them. His 'interview' with the Jesus and Mo cartoonist was a new low, where he attacked the cartoonist for being 'offensive' and never once raised any point in favour of freedom of speech (not just in the interview but the piece beforehand, there was just one mention of that during the whole Jesus and Mo section).
Not a Robinson fan as political editor but when he was stand-in Newsnight presenter I thought he did a much better job of chairing a discussion than the regulars, and was less full of himself and more measured than them.