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What will this betting market look like next Friday morning? – politicalbetting.com

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  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,698
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    11 June 2026 - within the same morning:

    🇬🇧 UK Defence Secretary resigns, because the Prime Minister refuses to fund the British Armed Forces

    🇮🇹 Italy approves Armed Forces increase by 40,000 troops, adding a division to the Army


    https://x.com/noclador/status/2065057426877956496

    Italy is building two modern attack submarines for €500 million a piece, which as far as I know are on budget. The latest Astute class submarine is costing about £2 billion to build, or about five times as much. Astute, when it's available unlike now, is nuclear powered and more capable. Which is the better choice for their respective armed forces?
    Modern conventional attack submarines can stay under water for weeks at a time and are quieter than nuclear subs. They do not have the oceanic range of nuclear subs but in European waters such as the North sea, Baltic and Mediterranean are very capable.

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/war-games-swedish-stealth-submarine-sank-us-aircraft-carrier-116216
    It may or may not be the right choice, My contention the main problem with UK Defence is not a lack of money but an inability to make choices and deliver on those choices. Useful bang for buck is the key metric and the ratio is particularly poor for the UK.
  • Gasly has his Monaco podium restored.

    F1 in a nutshell. The FIA has admitted the timing system was inaccurate and the speeding penalties were bogus, but only Gasly gets his removed because all the others served their penalties during the race and there's no mechanism to reverse that. George Russell may lose the championship for failing to serve a penalty that should not have been given.

    What an utter clown show.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,295
    eek said:

    Cicero said:

    DavidL said:

    First. I note that Reform’s odds for Makerfield have come in overnight.

    A reaction to the private poll which I am told is a kosher poll.
    Showing a Reform win?
    No, this poll.

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
    That will be the poll that Restore will point to when they get more like 2% rather than the 12% indicated?
    I did hear from a very deflated Tory canvasser that they comfortably found more Restore voters than Tory voters.

    Their view is the Tories ain't ever winning again until GB News and social media are banned in the UK.
    The Kemi paradox.

    The things that give her most life as a politician are the ones that are killing her chances of being PM.

    Britain Elects

    ✅ Conservative HOLD

    Christleton and Huntington (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:

    CON: 32.9% (+8.1)
    GRN: 30.4% (+8.2)
    REF: 17.2% (+17.2)
    LAB: 10.5% (-8.1)
    LDEM: 9.0% (-8.0)

    No Ind (-17.4) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~44% (-3)
    And?

    The obvious counterpoint is No Ind compared to last time.

    Local factors, there are always local factors.
    Yes, we should focus on this one single result and ignore the the results of the May locals.
    You and I campaigned for David Cameron, and I campaigned for the conservatives from the 1964 GE so I do not understand your animosity towards the conservative party of today so maybe it is fair to ask what do you want the conservative party to represent other than pro EU which is not on their agenda ?
    The problems are that:
    a) Brexit was a deeply unserious policy that has cost the UK a significant proportion of its GDP- an estimated 140 billion directly and another 900 billion in the funds leaving the City, and with it 40,000 well paid city jobs. That is before we discuss the evisceration of our farmers and food processors and the regulatory drag for all trade with the EU- a cost that reduces our projected growth every single year. So Brexit is an economic mess, and the Uk economy is growing more fragile the longer we fail to address it.
    b) The advent of the Putin war and the Trump fiasco has left us militarily and strategically vulnerable, and the only viable way to maintain our strategic independence is to re-engage and indeed develop further our cooperation with NATO allies- which now includes all but 4 members of the EU- Ireland, Austria, Malta, Cyprus. Ireland,. Meanwhile Iceland is now likely to vote yes to the joining the EU in August, and this may trigger a Norwegian accession process. Even Canada is developing a much closer relationship than anything the Tories have proposed.

    So the Tories need to get serious. Now.
    Iceland's currently polling is trending away from EU talks https://www.icelandreview.com/news/poll-finds-more-icelanders-oppose-eu-membership-than-support-it/?srsltid=AfmBOooWukiQoo8kqQgP9vwiAPDbbvYIv7OmQC3xOiTLeOZXwpQFucCC
    Countries which might be in the EU but for the Common Fisheries Policy:

    Iceland
    Norway
    Greenland
    UK

    To be fair, the EU have offered the prospect of some limited concessions to Iceland on fishing. So much for the rules-based order...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,895
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    11 June 2026 - within the same morning:

    🇬🇧 UK Defence Secretary resigns, because the Prime Minister refuses to fund the British Armed Forces

    🇮🇹 Italy approves Armed Forces increase by 40,000 troops, adding a division to the Army


    https://x.com/noclador/status/2065057426877956496

    Italy is building two modern attack submarines for €500 million a piece, which as far as I know are on budget. The latest Astute class submarine is costing about £2 billion to build, or about five times as much. Astute, when it's available unlike now, is nuclear powered and more capable. Which is the better choice for their respective armed forces?
    Modern conventional attack submarines can stay under water for weeks at a time and are quieter than nuclear subs. They do not have the oceanic range of nuclear subs but in European waters such as the North sea, Baltic and Mediterranean are very capable.

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/war-games-swedish-stealth-submarine-sank-us-aircraft-carrier-116216
    The new generation nuclear are much quieter, too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,895
    edited June 12

    It’s either breakfasts for poor kids or stopping the Russkis shooting them.
    At least Colonel Blimp was a sensitive, honourable man capable of change underneath the reactionary old fool, whereas this guy..

    Lord Alan West: "Its all very well having nice spending for breakfast for children at school.. but if that means.. you have Russians stomping down your streets shooting the children who would have been having breakfast.."

    That isn't the choice, apparently.
    We're ripping off the young to pay for that.

    Chief Treasury Secretary Lucy Rigby has defended the Government’s decision to not reduce interest rates on student loans, saying the money is being used to fund benefit schemes including ‘free breakfast clubs’ and lifting the two child benefit cap..
    https://x.com/FamEdTrust/status/2064791740628832666
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,682
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    11 June 2026 - within the same morning:

    🇬🇧 UK Defence Secretary resigns, because the Prime Minister refuses to fund the British Armed Forces

    🇮🇹 Italy approves Armed Forces increase by 40,000 troops, adding a division to the Army


    https://x.com/noclador/status/2065057426877956496

    Italy is building two modern attack submarines for €500 million a piece, which as far as I know are on budget. The latest Astute class submarine is costing about £2 billion to build, or about five times as much. Astute, when it's available unlike now, is nuclear powered and more capable. Which is the better choice for their respective armed forces?
    Modern conventional attack submarines can stay under water for weeks at a time and are quieter than nuclear subs. They do not have the oceanic range of nuclear subs but in European waters such as the North sea, Baltic and Mediterranean are very capable.

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/war-games-swedish-stealth-submarine-sank-us-aircraft-carrier-116216
    The new generation nuclear are much quieter, too.
    Yup - fourth generation of pumpjet propulsors combined with reactors that can run without water circulation pumps up to 20 knots.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,821
    Russians being Russians, and posting online for everyone to see how they’re trying to disguise fuel trucks as wood trucks.

    https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2065360595617034438
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,372
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anyway, Happy Russia Day to all those that celebrate. Just having a quiet one at home at home this year.

    https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTJbHvxDWIc/?hl=en

    Cheers!

    I had a great time in Russia when I was there for the World Cup and would love to go back to see some more of the sights. Being a Russophile doesn't mean being a Putinophile!

    Russia's flaw is to be a country obsessed with the decline of its empire and also with its moment of glory in WW2. Very much a mirror to a certain country on the opposite end of Europe.
    My wife and I have the Trans-Siberian Express on our lifetime bucket list. The hope is that Russia becomes a friendly country by the time we retire.

    Sadly this looks some way off at the moment.
    My wife and I have been to Moscow and Vladivostok - but not the bit between !!!!!!!!!
    How did you end up in Vladivostok?
    We sailed on Princess cruises from Vancouver to Japan, then to Vladivostok, then South Korea, then ending up Tianjin before flying home from Beijing
    Ooh, very good. Can’t be many people who have crossed the date line backwards in a boat?
    I have done San Francisco to Sydney via Fiji and New Zealand. The time thing is weird.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,895

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    11 June 2026 - within the same morning:

    🇬🇧 UK Defence Secretary resigns, because the Prime Minister refuses to fund the British Armed Forces

    🇮🇹 Italy approves Armed Forces increase by 40,000 troops, adding a division to the Army


    https://x.com/noclador/status/2065057426877956496

    Italy is building two modern attack submarines for €500 million a piece, which as far as I know are on budget. The latest Astute class submarine is costing about £2 billion to build, or about five times as much. Astute, when it's available unlike now, is nuclear powered and more capable. Which is the better choice for their respective armed forces?
    Modern conventional attack submarines can stay under water for weeks at a time and are quieter than nuclear subs. They do not have the oceanic range of nuclear subs but in European waters such as the North sea, Baltic and Mediterranean are very capable.

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/war-games-swedish-stealth-submarine-sank-us-aircraft-carrier-116216
    The new generation nuclear are much quieter, too.
    Yup - fourth generation of pumpjet propulsors combined with reactors that can run without water circulation pumps up to 20 knots.
    And/or a fully electrical system which can run for hours on batteries.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,878
    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anyway, Happy Russia Day to all those that celebrate. Just having a quiet one at home at home this year.

    https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTJbHvxDWIc/?hl=en

    Cheers!

    I had a great time in Russia when I was there for the World Cup and would love to go back to see some more of the sights. Being a Russophile doesn't mean being a Putinophile!

    Russia's flaw is to be a country obsessed with the decline of its empire and also with its moment of glory in WW2. Very much a mirror to a certain country on the opposite end of Europe.
    My wife and I have the Trans-Siberian Express on our lifetime bucket list. The hope is that Russia becomes a friendly country by the time we retire.

    Sadly this looks some way off at the moment.
    I guess that, given your location, a week looking at rows of fir trees will be unbelievably interesting.

    Pending it becoming safe, you could try driving through Finland?
    I am thinking of the Trans-Canadian as an alternative. It is pretty good value for fans of endless landscapes, forests and lakes
    The Caledonian Sleeper is nice, well, it exists. It is impossible to sleep on it (it rattles and bumps) but you get some nice views of Scotland. It also has a dining car where you can get some food (if they don't run out) that may be heated (if the oven/microwave doesn't break down) on actual plates (if the dishwasher doesn't break down).

    For the amount of money you would spend going to Siberia, you could spend about a week travelling up to Inverness, spend the day in Inverness, travel back to London, spend the day in London, then back up, and so on. There is a lounge in Euston where you can get a shower and catch up on the sleep you lost because it's impossible to sleep on the train. There is in theory also a lounge in Inverness, but it's usually shut "due to staff shortages".

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Attraction_Review-g186338-d19121695-Reviews-Caledonian_Sleeper_Train-London_England.html
    In my experience sleeper trains are one of those things where the reality never quite matches the cosiness and romance of the mental image. But that doesn't stop me continuing to love the idea.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,895
    This is why he wants Vance to sign it.

    Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
    The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
    Let’s see what happens in coming days...

    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2065357315058880709
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,821
    New Ukranian supersonic missile production line:

    https://x.com/mykhailorohoza/status/2065123267497619597
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,801

    It’s either breakfasts for poor kids or stopping the Russkis shooting them.
    At least Colonel Blimp was a sensitive, honourable man capable of change underneath the reactionary old fool, whereas this guy..

    Lord Alan West: "Its all very well having nice spending for breakfast for children at school.. but if that means.. you have Russians stomping down your streets shooting the children who would have been having breakfast.."

    Russians killing your kids. IS THAT WHAT YOU WANT?

    https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/2065301442752070026?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Curious. Not that long ago it was the overseas-aid budget that was sucking the funding from Britain's defence requirements.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1156278/jacob-rees-mogg-iran-jeremy-hunt-boris-johnson-lbc-brexit-news-video

    Rachel and Sir Keir slashed that in half, but now it's breakfast clubs that are the problem. What gives?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,821
    kinabalu said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anyway, Happy Russia Day to all those that celebrate. Just having a quiet one at home at home this year.

    https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTJbHvxDWIc/?hl=en

    Cheers!

    I had a great time in Russia when I was there for the World Cup and would love to go back to see some more of the sights. Being a Russophile doesn't mean being a Putinophile!

    Russia's flaw is to be a country obsessed with the decline of its empire and also with its moment of glory in WW2. Very much a mirror to a certain country on the opposite end of Europe.
    My wife and I have the Trans-Siberian Express on our lifetime bucket list. The hope is that Russia becomes a friendly country by the time we retire.

    Sadly this looks some way off at the moment.
    I guess that, given your location, a week looking at rows of fir trees will be unbelievably interesting.

    Pending it becoming safe, you could try driving through Finland?
    I am thinking of the Trans-Canadian as an alternative. It is pretty good value for fans of endless landscapes, forests and lakes
    The Caledonian Sleeper is nice, well, it exists. It is impossible to sleep on it (it rattles and bumps) but you get some nice views of Scotland. It also has a dining car where you can get some food (if they don't run out) that may be heated (if the oven/microwave doesn't break down) on actual plates (if the dishwasher doesn't break down).

    For the amount of money you would spend going to Siberia, you could spend about a week travelling up to Inverness, spend the day in Inverness, travel back to London, spend the day in London, then back up, and so on. There is a lounge in Euston where you can get a shower and catch up on the sleep you lost because it's impossible to sleep on the train. There is in theory also a lounge in Inverness, but it's usually shut "due to staff shortages".

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Attraction_Review-g186338-d19121695-Reviews-Caledonian_Sleeper_Train-London_England.html
    In my experience sleeper trains are one of those things where the reality never quite matches the cosiness and romance of the mental image. But that doesn't stop me continuing to love the idea.
    Have been on a few in Ukraine, and they’re pretty good so long as you have a private cabin.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,821
    Nigelb said:

    This is why he wants Vance to sign it.

    Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
    The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
    Let’s see what happens in coming days...

    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2065357315058880709

    Oman, UAE, and the rest of the GCC States aren’t signing anything that says that Hormuz effectively belongs to Iran.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,372
    Green gain by 5 votes from Conservatives in Slough.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,942
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is why he wants Vance to sign it.

    Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
    The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
    Let’s see what happens in coming days...

    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2065357315058880709

    Oman, UAE, and the rest of the GCC States aren’t signing anything that says that Hormuz effectively belongs to Iran.
    Without the Septics, what can they do about it?

    Continuing the war just makes things worse for themselves.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,682
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is why he wants Vance to sign it.

    Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
    The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
    Let’s see what happens in coming days...

    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2065357315058880709

    Oman, UAE, and the rest of the GCC States aren’t signing anything that says that Hormuz effectively belongs to Iran.
    This sounds like the mirror image of the “deals” that Trump claims to be about to get signed, any minute now.

    The ones where the Iranians surrender everything.

    They are just talking past each other, I think.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,895

    It’s either breakfasts for poor kids or stopping the Russkis shooting them.
    At least Colonel Blimp was a sensitive, honourable man capable of change underneath the reactionary old fool, whereas this guy..

    Lord Alan West: "Its all very well having nice spending for breakfast for children at school.. but if that means.. you have Russians stomping down your streets shooting the children who would have been having breakfast.."

    Russians killing your kids. IS THAT WHAT YOU WANT?

    https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/2065301442752070026?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Curious. Not that long ago it was the overseas-aid budget that was sucking the funding from Britain's defence requirements.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1156278/jacob-rees-mogg-iran-jeremy-hunt-boris-johnson-lbc-brexit-news-video

    Rachel and Sir Keir slashed that in half, but now it's breakfast clubs that are the problem. What gives?
    That's around £400m a year.
    West is a numpty.

    And these guys are paying:
    Chief Treasury Secretary Lucy Rigby has defended the Government’s decision to not reduce interest rates on student loans, saying the money is being used to fund benefit schemes including ‘free breakfast clubs’..</I<
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,997
    What is Al Carns up to?

    https://x.com/AlistairCarns/status/2065366386306601264

    Britain spent a decade choosing to be smaller in the world.

    Right now the rules on communications, energy and trade are being rewritten. By China. By Russia. By countries that take their own security seriously. We need to be at that table. That's a choice we must make.

    Strong countries get cheap energy. Weak countries pay whatever the strong ones decide.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,942
    slade said:

    Green gain by 5 votes from Conservatives in Slough.

    The reports of the death of the Greens may be greatly exagerated.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,821

    Gasly has his Monaco podium restored.

    F1 in a nutshell. The FIA has admitted the timing system was inaccurate and the speeding penalties were bogus, but only Gasly gets his removed because all the others served their penalties during the race and there's no mechanism to reverse that. George Russell may lose the championship for failing to serve a penalty that should not have been given.

    What an utter clown show.
    FOM, who contract the timing, admitted that the zone was 77cm too long.

    https://x.com/ruthbuscombe/status/2065385403582947788
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,821
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is why he wants Vance to sign it.

    Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
    The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
    Let’s see what happens in coming days...

    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2065357315058880709

    Oman, UAE, and the rest of the GCC States aren’t signing anything that says that Hormuz effectively belongs to Iran.
    Without the Septics, what can they do about it?

    Continuing the war just makes things worse for themselves.
    Don’t underestimate the willingness of the GCC countries to deal with the Iran problem once and for all.

    The last few months have been 47 years in the making.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,942
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is why he wants Vance to sign it.

    Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
    The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
    Let’s see what happens in coming days...

    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2065357315058880709

    Oman, UAE, and the rest of the GCC States aren’t signing anything that says that Hormuz effectively belongs to Iran.
    Without the Septics, what can they do about it?

    Continuing the war just makes things worse for themselves.
    Don’t underestimate the willingness of the GCC countries to deal with the Iran problem once and for all.

    The last few months have been 47 years in the making.
    So what are they actually going to do about it?

    With the US and Israelis no longer involved, what can they do?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,493

    What is Al Carns up to?

    https://x.com/AlistairCarns/status/2065366386306601264

    Britain spent a decade choosing to be smaller in the world.

    Right now the rules on communications, energy and trade are being rewritten. By China. By Russia. By countries that take their own security seriously. We need to be at that table. That's a choice we must make.

    Strong countries get cheap energy. Weak countries pay whatever the strong ones decide.

    He's running a leadership campaign. Question is whether it is for next labour leader or the one after.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,821
    The root problem is government involvement in student loans in the first place.

    Let the student, the institution, and the bank, work out the loan between them.
    Nigelb said:

    It’s either breakfasts for poor kids or stopping the Russkis shooting them.
    At least Colonel Blimp was a sensitive, honourable man capable of change underneath the reactionary old fool, whereas this guy..

    Lord Alan West: "Its all very well having nice spending for breakfast for children at school.. but if that means.. you have Russians stomping down your streets shooting the children who would have been having breakfast.."

    Russians killing your kids. IS THAT WHAT YOU WANT?

    https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/2065301442752070026?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Curious. Not that long ago it was the overseas-aid budget that was sucking the funding from Britain's defence requirements.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1156278/jacob-rees-mogg-iran-jeremy-hunt-boris-johnson-lbc-brexit-news-video

    Rachel and Sir Keir slashed that in half, but now it's breakfast clubs that are the problem. What gives?
    That's around £400m a year.
    West is a numpty.

    And these guys are paying:
    Chief Treasury Secretary Lucy Rigby has defended the Government’s decision to not reduce interest rates on student loans, saying the money is being used to fund benefit schemes including ‘free breakfast clubs’..
    The root problem is government involvement in student loans in the first place.

    Let the student, the institution, and the bank, work out the loan between them.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,290
    Cicero said:

    DavidL said:

    First. I note that Reform’s odds for Makerfield have come in overnight.

    A reaction to the private poll which I am told is a kosher poll.
    Showing a Reform win?
    No, this poll.

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
    That will be the poll that Restore will point to when they get more like 2% rather than the 12% indicated?
    I did hear from a very deflated Tory canvasser that they comfortably found more Restore voters than Tory voters.

    Their view is the Tories ain't ever winning again until GB News and social media are banned in the UK.
    The Kemi paradox.

    The things that give her most life as a politician are the ones that are killing her chances of being PM.

    Britain Elects

    ✅ Conservative HOLD

    Christleton and Huntington (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:

    CON: 32.9% (+8.1)
    GRN: 30.4% (+8.2)
    REF: 17.2% (+17.2)
    LAB: 10.5% (-8.1)
    LDEM: 9.0% (-8.0)

    No Ind (-17.4) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~44% (-3)
    And?

    The obvious counterpoint is No Ind compared to last time.

    Local factors, there are always local factors.
    Yes, we should focus on this one single result and ignore the the results of the May locals.
    You and I campaigned for David Cameron, and I campaigned for the conservatives from the 1964 GE so I do not understand your animosity towards the conservative party of today so maybe it is fair to ask what do you want the conservative party to represent other than pro EU which is not on their agenda ?
    The problems are that:
    a) Brexit was a deeply unserious policy that has cost the UK a significant proportion of its GDP- an estimated 140 billion directly and another 900 billion in the funds leaving the City, and with it 40,000 well paid city jobs. That is before we discuss the evisceration of our farmers and food processors and the regulatory drag for all trade with the EU- a cost that reduces our projected growth every single year. So Brexit is an economic mess, and the Uk economy is growing more fragile the longer we fail to address it.
    b) The advent of the Putin war and the Trump fiasco has left us militarily and strategically vulnerable, and the only viable way to maintain our strategic independence is to re-engage and indeed develop further our cooperation with NATO allies- which now includes all but 4 members of the EU- Ireland, Austria, Malta, Cyprus. Ireland,. Meanwhile Iceland is now likely to vote yes to the joining the EU in August, and this may trigger a Norwegian accession process. Even Canada is developing a much closer relationship than anything the Tories have proposed.

    So the Tories need to get serious. Now.
    Citation for the bit in bold? I assume in your eyes if we had stayed in our growth would have far exceeded the European average rather than just matching it, as it has done.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,871

    What is Al Carns up to?

    https://x.com/AlistairCarns/status/2065366386306601264

    Britain spent a decade choosing to be smaller in the world.

    Right now the rules on communications, energy and trade are being rewritten. By China. By Russia. By countries that take their own security seriously. We need to be at that table. That's a choice we must make.

    Strong countries get cheap energy. Weak countries pay whatever the strong ones decide.

    He's positioning himself for the upcoming battle. And I will take him seriously the minute he suggests actual actionable solutions instead of just whining.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,821
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is why he wants Vance to sign it.

    Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
    The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
    Let’s see what happens in coming days...

    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2065357315058880709

    Oman, UAE, and the rest of the GCC States aren’t signing anything that says that Hormuz effectively belongs to Iran.
    Without the Septics, what can they do about it?

    Continuing the war just makes things worse for themselves.
    Don’t underestimate the willingness of the GCC countries to deal with the Iran problem once and for all.

    The last few months have been 47 years in the making.
    So what are they actually going to do about it?

    With the US and Israelis no longer involved, what can they do?
    They have navies of their own.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,942
    edited June 12
    slade said:

    Green gain by 5 votes from Conservatives in Slough.

    Cippenham Green (Slough) Council By-Election Result:

    🌍 GRN: 24.5% (New)
    🌳 CON: 24.2% (-19.9)
    🌹 LAB: 21.3% (-6.9)
    ➡️ RFM: 19.5% (New)
    🔶 LDM: 10.5% (+1.0)

    No Ind (-13.3) or HER (-4.8) as previous.

    Green GAIN from Conservative.
    Changes w/ 2023.

    The Kemigasm continues...
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,188

    Kane Williamson retires from international cricket with immediate effect.

    Lords pitch still claiming victims 5 days on
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,250
    slade said:

    Green gain by 5 votes from Conservatives in Slough.

    "SLOUGH Cippenham Green

    Chloe HART (Green Party) 409
    Raja Muhammad FAYYAZ (Conservative Party) 404
    Preston BROOKER (Labour and Co-Operative Party) 355
    Christina MAHBOOB (Reform UK) 326
    Jennifer Claire SIMPSON (Liberal Democrats) 176

    Spoilt ballots: 8
    Turnout 32.13%

    Grn 24.5%
    Con 24.2%
    Lab 21.3%
    Ref 19.5%
    LD 10.5%"
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,254
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    First. I note that Reform’s odds for Makerfield have come in overnight.

    A reaction to the private poll which I am told is a kosher poll.
    Showing a Reform win?
    No, this poll.

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
    That will be the poll that Restore will point to when they get more like 2% rather than the 12% indicated?
    I did hear from a very deflated Tory canvasser that they comfortably found more Restore voters than Tory voters.

    Their view is the Tories ain't ever winning again until GB News and social media are banned in the UK.
    The Kemi paradox.

    The things that give her most life as a politician are the ones that are killing her chances of being PM.

    Britain Elects

    ✅ Conservative HOLD

    Christleton and Huntington (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:

    CON: 32.9% (+8.1)
    GRN: 30.4% (+8.2)
    REF: 17.2% (+17.2)
    LAB: 10.5% (-8.1)
    LDEM: 9.0% (-8.0)

    No Ind (-17.4) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~44% (-3)
    And?

    The obvious counterpoint is No Ind compared to last time.

    Local factors, there are always local factors.
    Yes, we should focus on this one single result and ignore the the results of the May locals.
    You and I campaigned for David Cameron, and I campaigned for the conservatives from the 1964 GE so I do not understand your animosity towards the conservative party of today so maybe it is fair to ask what do you want the conservative party to represent other than pro EU which is not on their agenda ?
    You voted for Blair twice.

    I want a fiscally sound, socially liberal policies, the rhetoric out of the mouths of Katie Lam and Nick Philip are the language out of Farage, the Tories will not win trying to out Reform Reform.
    'You voted for Blair twice.'

    TSE clearly keeps an archive of my posts
    I have said many times I voted for Blair twice and I also voted remain
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,942
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is why he wants Vance to sign it.

    Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
    The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
    Let’s see what happens in coming days...

    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2065357315058880709

    Oman, UAE, and the rest of the GCC States aren’t signing anything that says that Hormuz effectively belongs to Iran.
    Without the Septics, what can they do about it?

    Continuing the war just makes things worse for themselves.
    Don’t underestimate the willingness of the GCC countries to deal with the Iran problem once and for all.

    The last few months have been 47 years in the making.
    So what are they actually going to do about it?

    With the US and Israelis no longer involved, what can they do?
    They have navies of their own.
    If the USN cannot open Hormuz, how can they?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,630

    11 June 2026 - within the same morning:

    🇬🇧 UK Defence Secretary resigns, because the Prime Minister refuses to fund the British Armed Forces

    🇮🇹 Italy approves Armed Forces increase by 40,000 troops, adding a division to the Army


    https://x.com/noclador/status/2065057426877956496

    Britain is heading towards becoming a second-rate military power within Europe and the trajectory is such that it will become a third-rate power soon afterwards.

    Maybe the British people are adopting a more insular worldview, shrinking back from the world and relying on others to protect it. Wouldn't be the first country to surrender control over its destiny in such a way.

    11 June 2026 - within the same morning:

    🇬🇧 UK Defence Secretary resigns, because the Prime Minister refuses to fund the British Armed Forces

    🇮🇹 Italy approves Armed Forces increase by 40,000 troops, adding a division to the Army


    https://x.com/noclador/status/2065057426877956496

    Britain is heading towards becoming a second-rate military power within Europe and the trajectory is such that it will become a third-rate power soon afterwards.

    Maybe the British people are adopting a more insular worldview, shrinking back from the world and relying on others to protect it. Wouldn't be the first country to surrender control over its destiny in such a way.
    I doubt it. This will be reversed.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,290
    Dopermean said:

    Kane Williamson retires from international cricket with immediate effect.

    Lords pitch still claiming victims 5 days on
    I did not see that coming. What a player and what a record.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,878

    What is Al Carns up to?

    https://x.com/AlistairCarns/status/2065366386306601264

    Britain spent a decade choosing to be smaller in the world.

    Right now the rules on communications, energy and trade are being rewritten. By China. By Russia. By countries that take their own security seriously. We need to be at that table. That's a choice we must make.

    Strong countries get cheap energy. Weak countries pay whatever the strong ones decide.

    Andy Burnham is looking better and better.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,015
    edited June 12
    Foxy said:

    slade said:

    Green gain by 5 votes from Conservatives in Slough.

    Cippenham Green (Slough) Council By-Election Result:

    🌍 GRN: 24.5% (New)
    🌳 CON: 24.2% (-19.9)
    🌹 LAB: 21.3% (-6.9)
    ➡️ RFM: 19.5% (New)
    🔶 LDM: 10.5% (+1.0)

    No Ind (-13.3) or HER (-4.8) as previous.

    Green GAIN from Conservative.
    Changes w/ 2023.

    The Kemigasm continues...
    The Tories won a seat in Cheshire last night, Slough has been Labour since 1992
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,254
    slade said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anyway, Happy Russia Day to all those that celebrate. Just having a quiet one at home at home this year.

    https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTJbHvxDWIc/?hl=en

    Cheers!

    I had a great time in Russia when I was there for the World Cup and would love to go back to see some more of the sights. Being a Russophile doesn't mean being a Putinophile!

    Russia's flaw is to be a country obsessed with the decline of its empire and also with its moment of glory in WW2. Very much a mirror to a certain country on the opposite end of Europe.
    My wife and I have the Trans-Siberian Express on our lifetime bucket list. The hope is that Russia becomes a friendly country by the time we retire.

    Sadly this looks some way off at the moment.
    My wife and I have been to Moscow and Vladivostok - but not the bit between !!!!!!!!!
    How did you end up in Vladivostok?
    We sailed on Princess cruises from Vancouver to Japan, then to Vladivostok, then South Korea, then ending up Tianjin before flying home from Beijing
    Ooh, very good. Can’t be many people who have crossed the date line backwards in a boat?
    I have done San Francisco to Sydney via Fiji and New Zealand. The time thing is weird.
    We did the same but to Sydney then Christchurch

    Came back through Sydney and Tokyo
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,997
    kinabalu said:

    What is Al Carns up to?

    https://x.com/AlistairCarns/status/2065366386306601264

    Britain spent a decade choosing to be smaller in the world.

    Right now the rules on communications, energy and trade are being rewritten. By China. By Russia. By countries that take their own security seriously. We need to be at that table. That's a choice we must make.

    Strong countries get cheap energy. Weak countries pay whatever the strong ones decide.

    Andy Burnham is looking better and better.
    It's an original pitch. Not even Farage would say he wanted a seat at the table with Putin and Xi.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 10,145
    slade said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anyway, Happy Russia Day to all those that celebrate. Just having a quiet one at home at home this year.

    https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTJbHvxDWIc/?hl=en

    Cheers!

    I had a great time in Russia when I was there for the World Cup and would love to go back to see some more of the sights. Being a Russophile doesn't mean being a Putinophile!

    Russia's flaw is to be a country obsessed with the decline of its empire and also with its moment of glory in WW2. Very much a mirror to a certain country on the opposite end of Europe.
    My wife and I have the Trans-Siberian Express on our lifetime bucket list. The hope is that Russia becomes a friendly country by the time we retire.

    Sadly this looks some way off at the moment.
    My wife and I have been to Moscow and Vladivostok - but not the bit between !!!!!!!!!
    How did you end up in Vladivostok?
    We sailed on Princess cruises from Vancouver to Japan, then to Vladivostok, then South Korea, then ending up Tianjin before flying home from Beijing
    Ooh, very good. Can’t be many people who have crossed the date line backwards in a boat?
    I have done San Francisco to Sydney via Fiji and New Zealand. The time thing is weird.
    My wife once managed to have her birthday twice, thanks to date-line crossing (as a kid on a family holiday).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,698
    edited June 12

    Cicero said:

    DavidL said:

    First. I note that Reform’s odds for Makerfield have come in overnight.

    A reaction to the private poll which I am told is a kosher poll.
    Showing a Reform win?
    No, this poll.

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
    That will be the poll that Restore will point to when they get more like 2% rather than the 12% indicated?
    I did hear from a very deflated Tory canvasser that they comfortably found more Restore voters than Tory voters.

    Their view is the Tories ain't ever winning again until GB News and social media are banned in the UK.
    The Kemi paradox.

    The things that give her most life as a politician are the ones that are killing her chances of being PM.

    Britain Elects

    ✅ Conservative HOLD

    Christleton and Huntington (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:

    CON: 32.9% (+8.1)
    GRN: 30.4% (+8.2)
    REF: 17.2% (+17.2)
    LAB: 10.5% (-8.1)
    LDEM: 9.0% (-8.0)

    No Ind (-17.4) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~44% (-3)
    And?

    The obvious counterpoint is No Ind compared to last time.

    Local factors, there are always local factors.
    Yes, we should focus on this one single result and ignore the the results of the May locals.
    You and I campaigned for David Cameron, and I campaigned for the conservatives from the 1964 GE so I do not understand your animosity towards the conservative party of today so maybe it is fair to ask what do you want the conservative party to represent other than pro EU which is not on their agenda ?
    The problems are that:
    a) Brexit was a deeply unserious policy that has cost the UK a significant proportion of its GDP- an estimated 140 billion directly and another 900 billion in the funds leaving the City, and with it 40,000 well paid city jobs. That is before we discuss the evisceration of our farmers and food processors and the regulatory drag for all trade with the EU- a cost that reduces our projected growth every single year. So Brexit is an economic mess, and the Uk economy is growing more fragile the longer we fail to address it.
    b) The advent of the Putin war and the Trump fiasco has left us militarily and strategically vulnerable, and the only viable way to maintain our strategic independence is to re-engage and indeed develop further our cooperation with NATO allies- which now includes all but 4 members of the EU- Ireland, Austria, Malta, Cyprus. Ireland,. Meanwhile Iceland is now likely to vote yes to the joining the EU in August, and this may trigger a Norwegian accession process. Even Canada is developing a much closer relationship than anything the Tories have proposed.

    So the Tories need to get serious. Now.
    Citation for the bit in bold? I assume in your eyes if we had stayed in our growth would have far exceeded the European average rather than just matching it, as it has done.
    Brexit was a choice to be poorer as a country. Maybe it's worth it for reasons no-one seems able to articulate. No serious person would claim otherwise if they accept trade and investment are important to a country's wealth and both are reduced by barriers introduced by leaving our main market.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,682
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is why he wants Vance to sign it.

    Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
    The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
    Let’s see what happens in coming days...

    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2065357315058880709

    Oman, UAE, and the rest of the GCC States aren’t signing anything that says that Hormuz effectively belongs to Iran.
    Without the Septics, what can they do about it?

    Continuing the war just makes things worse for themselves.
    Don’t underestimate the willingness of the GCC countries to deal with the Iran problem once and for all.

    The last few months have been 47 years in the making.
    So what are they actually going to do about it?

    With the US and Israelis no longer involved, what can they do?
    They have navies of their own.
    If the USN cannot open Hormuz, how can they?
    Strangle Iran by cutting off Iran's exports. Escalate, basically.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 10,145
    Nigelb said:

    This is why he wants Vance to sign it.

    Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
    The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
    Let’s see what happens in coming days...

    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2065357315058880709

    I mean, that's clearly fake, right? With any other president. But with Trump, you never quite know...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,666

    11 June 2026 - within the same morning:

    🇬🇧 UK Defence Secretary resigns, because the Prime Minister refuses to fund the British Armed Forces

    🇮🇹 Italy approves Armed Forces increase by 40,000 troops, adding a division to the Army


    https://x.com/noclador/status/2065057426877956496

    We can't get out of more tax to fund Defence. Not at 3.5% yet alone 5% of GDP.

    I'd like to cut £12-15bn off welfare spending right now to do the first bit, but this administration can't get the votes for it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,997
    Al Carns retweeted approvingly by erstwhile Reform MP James McMurdock.

    https://x.com/JMcMurdockMP/status/2065374720053187015

    Caring for the planet is not mad but Britain’s Net Zero policies are.

    Britain has some of the most expensive energy in the world. If energy is expensive everything is expensive.

    Labour is fighting the wrong battle and some of the best among them now openly admit they know it.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,335

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is why he wants Vance to sign it.

    Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
    The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
    Let’s see what happens in coming days...

    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2065357315058880709

    Oman, UAE, and the rest of the GCC States aren’t signing anything that says that Hormuz effectively belongs to Iran.
    Without the Septics, what can they do about it?

    Continuing the war just makes things worse for themselves.
    Don’t underestimate the willingness of the GCC countries to deal with the Iran problem once and for all.

    The last few months have been 47 years in the making.
    So what are they actually going to do about it?

    With the US and Israelis no longer involved, what can they do?
    They have navies of their own.
    If the USN cannot open Hormuz, how can they?
    Strangle Iran by cutting off Iran's exports. Escalate, basically.
    The paralysis is due to Trump wanting to be centre to any deal. Israel and Iran could sort it between themselves but Donnie wants a Peace Prize.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,250
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    First. I note that Reform’s odds for Makerfield have come in overnight.

    A reaction to the private poll which I am told is a kosher poll.
    Showing a Reform win?
    No, this poll.

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
    That will be the poll that Restore will point to when they get more like 2% rather than the 12% indicated?
    I did hear from a very deflated Tory canvasser that they comfortably found more Restore voters than Tory voters.

    Their view is the Tories ain't ever winning again until GB News and social media are banned in the UK.
    The Kemi paradox.

    The things that give her most life as a politician are the ones that are killing her chances of being PM.

    Britain Elects

    ✅ Conservative HOLD

    Christleton and Huntington (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:

    CON: 32.9% (+8.1)
    GRN: 30.4% (+8.2)
    REF: 17.2% (+17.2)
    LAB: 10.5% (-8.1)
    LDEM: 9.0% (-8.0)

    No Ind (-17.4) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~44% (-3)
    And?

    The obvious counterpoint is No Ind compared to last time.

    Local factors, there are always local factors.
    Yes, we should focus on this one single result and ignore the the results of the May locals.
    You and I campaigned for David Cameron, and I campaigned for the conservatives from the 1964 GE so I do not understand your animosity towards the conservative party of today so maybe it is fair to ask what do you want the conservative party to represent other than pro EU which is not on their agenda ?
    I would suggest being liberal on social and cultural issues.

    Social conservatism is almost always a euphemism for bigotry.
    A large segment of the electorate are social conservatives.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,665
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is why he wants Vance to sign it.

    Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
    The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
    Let’s see what happens in coming days...

    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2065357315058880709

    Oman, UAE, and the rest of the GCC States aren’t signing anything that says that Hormuz effectively belongs to Iran.
    Without the Septics, what can they do about it?

    Continuing the war just makes things worse for themselves.
    Don’t underestimate the willingness of the GCC countries to deal with the Iran problem once and for all.

    The last few months have been 47 years in the making.
    So what are they actually going to do about it?

    With the US and Israelis no longer involved, what can they do?
    They have navies of their own.
    If the USN cannot open Hormuz, how can they?
    Most of the GCC armed forces are fucking useless in my experience. We had a quite a few Hawk students come through Valley and most wouldn't have got jobs peeling potatoes in the RAF/RN but we had to qualify them no matter what because of political considerations. This proud tradition endures today in the "joint" British/Qatari squadrons.

    I was young and earnest at the time and so actually tried to teach my GCC students something. The more cynical greybeard QFIs just used to sign them off to get rid of them as quickly as possible so they could go back to being dangerous in their own countries. Some of the Saudis were quite good.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,666

    DavidL said:

    First. I note that Reform’s odds for Makerfield have come in overnight.

    A reaction to the private poll which I am told is a kosher poll.
    Showing a Reform win?
    No, this poll.

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
    That will be the poll that Restore will point to when they get more like 2% rather than the 12% indicated?
    I did hear from a very deflated Tory canvasser that they comfortably found more Restore voters than Tory voters.

    Their view is the Tories ain't ever winning again until GB News and social media are banned in the UK.
    The Kemi paradox.

    The things that give her most life as a politician are the ones that are killing her chances of being PM.

    Britain Elects

    ✅ Conservative HOLD

    Christleton and Huntington (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:

    CON: 32.9% (+8.1)
    GRN: 30.4% (+8.2)
    REF: 17.2% (+17.2)
    LAB: 10.5% (-8.1)
    LDEM: 9.0% (-8.0)

    No Ind (-17.4) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~44% (-3)
    And?

    The obvious counterpoint is No Ind compared to last time.

    Local factors, there are always local factors.
    Yes, we should focus on this one single result and ignore the the results of the May locals.
    You and I campaigned for David Cameron, and I campaigned for the conservatives from the 1964 GE so I do not understand your animosity towards the conservative party of today so maybe it is fair to ask what do you want the conservative party to represent other than pro EU which is not on their agenda ?
    You voted for Blair twice.

    I want a fiscally sound, socially liberal policies, the rhetoric out of the mouths of Katie Lam and Nick Philip are the language out of Farage, the Tories will not win trying to out Reform Reform.
    They won't win with Osbornism either.

    What you consistently fail to realise is that it isn't 2005 anymore, and voters want solutions today on immigration and security, and deciding to not talk about it is not a winning strategy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,821

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is why he wants Vance to sign it.

    Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
    The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
    Let’s see what happens in coming days...

    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2065357315058880709

    Oman, UAE, and the rest of the GCC States aren’t signing anything that says that Hormuz effectively belongs to Iran.
    Without the Septics, what can they do about it?

    Continuing the war just makes things worse for themselves.
    Don’t underestimate the willingness of the GCC countries to deal with the Iran problem once and for all.

    The last few months have been 47 years in the making.
    So what are they actually going to do about it?

    With the US and Israelis no longer involved, what can they do?
    They have navies of their own.
    If the USN cannot open Hormuz, how can they?
    Strangle Iran by cutting off Iran's exports. Escalate, basically.
    Yup. Oman, UAE, Saudi, can easily bomb every Iranian ship leaving the Gulf, until the Iranians agree to open the Straight.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,493
    Then there is party management in the face of a looming leadership challenge. Starmer may have calculated that, however serious, the loss of Healey would be less damaging among back benchers than the loss of Miliband, who reportedly refused point blank to give up any of his costly net zero budget to help fund defence. This is yet another example of Starmer putting his own political survival ahead of the national interest

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/06/12/dan-jarvis-defence-secretary-investment-plan-healey-resign/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,639
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    slade said:

    Green gain by 5 votes from Conservatives in Slough.

    Cippenham Green (Slough) Council By-Election Result:

    🌍 GRN: 24.5% (New)
    🌳 CON: 24.2% (-19.9)
    🌹 LAB: 21.3% (-6.9)
    ➡️ RFM: 19.5% (New)
    🔶 LDM: 10.5% (+1.0)

    No Ind (-13.3) or HER (-4.8) as previous.

    Green GAIN from Conservative.
    Changes w/ 2023.

    The Kemigasm continues...
    The Tories won a seat in Cheshire last night, Slough has been Labour since 1992
    So how come it's a gain from the Tories?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,723

    DavidL said:

    First. I note that Reform’s odds for Makerfield have come in overnight.

    A reaction to the private poll which I am told is a kosher poll.
    Showing a Reform win?
    No, this poll.

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
    That will be the poll that Restore will point to when they get more like 2% rather than the 12% indicated?
    I did hear from a very deflated Tory canvasser that they comfortably found more Restore voters than Tory voters.

    Their view is the Tories ain't ever winning again until GB News and social media are banned in the UK.
    The Kemi paradox.

    The things that give her most life as a politician are the ones that are killing her chances of being PM.

    Britain Elects

    ✅ Conservative HOLD

    Christleton and Huntington (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:

    CON: 32.9% (+8.1)
    GRN: 30.4% (+8.2)
    REF: 17.2% (+17.2)
    LAB: 10.5% (-8.1)
    LDEM: 9.0% (-8.0)

    No Ind (-17.4) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~44% (-3)
    And?

    The obvious counterpoint is No Ind compared to last time.

    Local factors, there are always local factors.
    Yes, we should focus on this one single result and ignore the the results of the May locals.
    You and I campaigned for David Cameron, and I campaigned for the conservatives from the 1964 GE so I do not understand your animosity towards the conservative party of today so maybe it is fair to ask what do you want the conservative party to represent other than pro EU which is not on their agenda ?
    You voted for Blair twice.

    I want a fiscally sound, socially liberal policies, the rhetoric out of the mouths of Katie Lam and Nick Philip are the language out of Farage, the Tories will not win trying to out Reform Reform.
    They won't win with Osbornism either.

    What you consistently fail to realise is that it isn't 2005 anymore, and voters want solutions today on immigration and security, and deciding to not talk about it is not a winning strategy.
    I know it's not 2025 and I want them to talk about immigration but 1) that doesn't sound straight out of the Farage/Lowe handbook, 2) acknowledge the fault of the Tories in this.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,979
    Battlebus said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is why he wants Vance to sign it.

    Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
    The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
    Let’s see what happens in coming days...

    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2065357315058880709

    Oman, UAE, and the rest of the GCC States aren’t signing anything that says that Hormuz effectively belongs to Iran.
    Without the Septics, what can they do about it?

    Continuing the war just makes things worse for themselves.
    Don’t underestimate the willingness of the GCC countries to deal with the Iran problem once and for all.

    The last few months have been 47 years in the making.
    So what are they actually going to do about it?

    With the US and Israelis no longer involved, what can they do?
    They have navies of their own.
    If the USN cannot open Hormuz, how can they?
    Strangle Iran by cutting off Iran's exports. Escalate, basically.
    The paralysis is due to Trump wanting to be centre to any deal. Israel and Iran could sort it between themselves but Donnie wants a Peace Prize.
    Donnie is not going to get a peace prize for wars he started..
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,630
    FPT: Katie Lam:

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/2065015073463046558

    A fear of appearing racist should never take priority over a duty to keep people safe.

    And pushes for diversity should never take priority over hiring people on the basis of individual merit.

    As I wrote for @ConHome, it's time to scrap the Public Sector Equality Duty

    That is one of the most crass tweets I have ever seen, and I can't tell whether Katie Lam is ignorant, stupid, or cynical.

    Katie is talking about a case relating to a terrorist offender in a prison as a dogwhistle, and she - and Kemi Badenoch - is proposing an action that will make life more difficult for the mass of her constituents. My call is that she is intelligent enough that I think it likely she is being as self-serving and as cynical as Bobajob Jenrick.

    The Public Sector Equality Duty is about getting things right first, rather than dealing with consequences and paying compensation after the face. It applies to public sector services for those with a "protected characteristic" (silly, but that's the language) aka: age, disability, gender reassignment, marriage or civil partnership (in employment only), pregnancy and maternity, race, religion or belief, sex, sexual orientation.

    It is about the only law I have that I can use to persuade a Highways Authority do something as simple as design a staggered pedestrian crossing to be wide enough for use by mobility aids, or a pedestrian route round a road works (eg widths, corner radii or ramps) to be safe for wheelchair users who are regularly tipped out by such constructions.

    These things happen: I have a signalled crossing 200m from my District Hospital which is so narrow that wheelchair users have to cross in the junction, and it has been there for 4 decades. If anyone doubts that infra tips wheelchair users out or strands them, try asking a few about their experiences.

    As an aside, she is also proposing to abolish the same law that aiui gender critical people have been using to 'defend women'.

    She wrote a similar article for Conservative Home, and she has had plenty of well-argued stick in the comments even there.
    https://conservativehome.com/2026/06/10/katie-lam-its-time-to-scrap-the-public-sector-equality-duty/

    Katie needs to fuck off to Reform, like Jenrick, if she believes her own nonsense.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,979
    edited June 12

    Then there is party management in the face of a looming leadership challenge. Starmer may have calculated that, however serious, the loss of Healey would be less damaging among back benchers than the loss of Miliband, who reportedly refused point blank to give up any of his costly net zero budget to help fund defence. This is yet another example of Starmer putting his own political survival ahead of the national interest

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/06/12/dan-jarvis-defence-secretary-investment-plan-healey-resign/

    What Net zero budget savings can be made given that most of that money is being spent on stupidly over expensive nuclear power stations - that we are now committed to.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,493
    We are not alone in having welfare cost issues:


    This week the [US] Social Security trustees announced that the trust fund for retirees and survivors will be exhausted in just six years. That’s six years before tens of millions of Americans could see their benefits cut by 22 percent. The crisis is closer than anyone in the Clinton or Bush years ever imagined we might let it get.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/12/opinion/social-security-benefits-budget.html
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,493
    We are not alone in having welfare cost issues:


    This week the [US] Social Security trustees announced that the trust fund for retirees and survivors will be exhausted in just six years. That’s six years before tens of millions of Americans could see their benefits cut by 22 percent. The crisis is closer than anyone in the Clinton or Bush years ever imagined we might let it get.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/12/opinion/social-security-benefits-budget.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,015
    edited June 12
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    slade said:

    Green gain by 5 votes from Conservatives in Slough.

    Cippenham Green (Slough) Council By-Election Result:

    🌍 GRN: 24.5% (New)
    🌳 CON: 24.2% (-19.9)
    🌹 LAB: 21.3% (-6.9)
    ➡️ RFM: 19.5% (New)
    🔶 LDM: 10.5% (+1.0)

    No Ind (-13.3) or HER (-4.8) as previous.

    Green GAIN from Conservative.
    Changes w/ 2023.

    The Kemigasm continues...
    The Tories won a seat in Cheshire last night, Slough has been Labour since 1992
    So how come it's a gain from the Tories?
    Slough parliamentary constituency has been held by Labour since 1997, Kemi does not need to win Slough even for a parliamentary majority.

    She does need to ensure the Tories hold Chester South and Eddisbury though and the Tories won a by election there last night

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2065355495641096280?s=20
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 7,192
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is why he wants Vance to sign it.

    Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
    The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
    Let’s see what happens in coming days...

    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2065357315058880709

    Oman, UAE, and the rest of the GCC States aren’t signing anything that says that Hormuz effectively belongs to Iran.
    Without the Septics, what can they do about it?

    Continuing the war just makes things worse for themselves.
    Don’t underestimate the willingness of the GCC countries to deal with the Iran problem once and for all.

    The last few months have been 47 years in the making.
    So what are they actually going to do about it?

    With the US and Israelis no longer involved, what can they do?
    They have navies of their own.
    If the USN cannot open Hormuz, how can they?
    Most of the GCC armed forces are fucking useless in my experience. We had a quite a few Hawk students come through Valley and most wouldn't have got jobs peeling potatoes in the RAF/RN but we had to qualify them no matter what because of political considerations. This proud tradition endures today in the "joint" British/Qatari squadrons.

    I was young and earnest at the time and so actually tried to teach my GCC students something. The more cynical greybeard QFIs just used to sign them off to get rid of them as quickly as possible so they could go back to being dangerous in their own countries. Some of the Saudis were quite good.
    You tried to teach them something other than the location of an establishment where they could meet “actresses”? (The usual British offer to visiting Arab princes with open wallets, in search of a security “qualification” or fighter jet).

    Shocking. That will have cost us 20 Typhoon exports:
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,971
    Why are the Greens on 13% with a loony.loke Polanski as leader. Noone in theirright mind would support him and his loony plans.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,250
    edited June 12

    Al Carns retweeted approvingly by erstwhile Reform MP James McMurdock.

    https://x.com/JMcMurdockMP/status/2065374720053187015

    Caring for the planet is not mad but Britain’s Net Zero policies are.

    Britain has some of the most expensive energy in the world. If energy is expensive everything is expensive.

    Labour is fighting the wrong battle and some of the best among them now openly admit they know it.

    Al Carns is far too right-wing (within a Labour party context) to ever be chosen as leader. Surely he must know that himself.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,997

    DavidL said:

    First. I note that Reform’s odds for Makerfield have come in overnight.

    A reaction to the private poll which I am told is a kosher poll.
    Showing a Reform win?
    No, this poll.

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
    That will be the poll that Restore will point to when they get more like 2% rather than the 12% indicated?
    I did hear from a very deflated Tory canvasser that they comfortably found more Restore voters than Tory voters.

    Their view is the Tories ain't ever winning again until GB News and social media are banned in the UK.
    The Kemi paradox.

    The things that give her most life as a politician are the ones that are killing her chances of being PM.

    Britain Elects

    ✅ Conservative HOLD

    Christleton and Huntington (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:

    CON: 32.9% (+8.1)
    GRN: 30.4% (+8.2)
    REF: 17.2% (+17.2)
    LAB: 10.5% (-8.1)
    LDEM: 9.0% (-8.0)

    No Ind (-17.4) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~44% (-3)
    And?

    The obvious counterpoint is No Ind compared to last time.

    Local factors, there are always local factors.
    Yes, we should focus on this one single result and ignore the the results of the May locals.
    You and I campaigned for David Cameron, and I campaigned for the conservatives from the 1964 GE so I do not understand your animosity towards the conservative party of today so maybe it is fair to ask what do you want the conservative party to represent other than pro EU which is not on their agenda ?
    You voted for Blair twice.

    I want a fiscally sound, socially liberal policies, the rhetoric out of the mouths of Katie Lam and Nick Philip are the language out of Farage, the Tories will not win trying to out Reform Reform.
    There's an emerging consensus that equality laws are illiberal and counter-productive. It doesn't make any sense for the Tories to swim against the tide just because the Cameron government was responsible for a lot of it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,666

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    First. I note that Reform’s odds for Makerfield have come in overnight.

    A reaction to the private poll which I am told is a kosher poll.
    Showing a Reform win?
    No, this poll.

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
    That will be the poll that Restore will point to when they get more like 2% rather than the 12% indicated?
    I did hear from a very deflated Tory canvasser that they comfortably found more Restore voters than Tory voters.

    Their view is the Tories ain't ever winning again until GB News and social media are banned in the UK.
    They could of course try the old method of having a reasonable set of plans set within a well presented vision of where we are going and how we are going to get there alongside honestly about money, debt, deficit and tax, the limits of government, the responsibilities of the individual, previous Tory failings, and hard choices. And then spend three years communicating it brilliantly well.

    Far too many voters have been conditioned to believe the problems of the country are solely down to immigration and the problems will be fixed with mass deportartions.

    The old methods do not work.
    The old methods do not work. Especially those of trumpeting how wonderful immigration is and the value it offers whilst ignoring all the problems.

    I watched the news from Belfast. I was sickened by the attempted beheading. I must admit, I too thought, what the fuck is he doing here and why do we have to put up with that?

    There are people here who have no right to be (even if the law currently allows them to be) and I'd have no hesitation in a much stricter admissions and deportation policy with no recourse to human rights laws.

    In fact, I think it's essential.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Al Carns retweeted approvingly by erstwhile Reform MP James McMurdock.

    https://x.com/JMcMurdockMP/status/2065374720053187015

    Caring for the planet is not mad but Britain’s Net Zero policies are.

    Britain has some of the most expensive energy in the world. If energy is expensive everything is expensive.

    Labour is fighting the wrong battle and some of the best among them now openly admit they know it.

    Al Carns is far too right-wing (within a Labour party context) to ever be chosen as leader. Surely he must know that himself.
    If Reform care about cheap energy why do they oppose renewables and want to put cables underground at great expense which will only makes things even more expensive?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,015
    edited June 12

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    First. I note that Reform’s odds for Makerfield have come in overnight.

    A reaction to the private poll which I am told is a kosher poll.
    Showing a Reform win?
    No, this poll.

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
    That will be the poll that Restore will point to when they get more like 2% rather than the 12% indicated?
    I did hear from a very deflated Tory canvasser that they comfortably found more Restore voters than Tory voters.

    Their view is the Tories ain't ever winning again until GB News and social media are banned in the UK.
    The Kemi paradox.

    The things that give her most life as a politician are the ones that are killing her chances of being PM.

    Britain Elects

    ✅ Conservative HOLD

    Christleton and Huntington (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:

    CON: 32.9% (+8.1)
    GRN: 30.4% (+8.2)
    REF: 17.2% (+17.2)
    LAB: 10.5% (-8.1)
    LDEM: 9.0% (-8.0)

    No Ind (-17.4) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~44% (-3)
    And?

    The obvious counterpoint is No Ind compared to last time.

    Local factors, there are always local factors.
    Yes, we should focus on this one single result and ignore the the results of the May locals.
    You and I campaigned for David Cameron, and I campaigned for the conservatives from the 1964 GE so I do not understand your animosity towards the conservative party of today so maybe it is fair to ask what do you want the conservative party to represent other than pro EU which is not on their agenda ?
    I would suggest being liberal on social and cultural issues.

    Social conservatism is almost always a euphemism for bigotry.
    Then that is the liberal party
    Yes, if voters want a socially liberal party they will vote LD, if voters want a socially conservative, anti immigration party they will vote Reform or Restore. If voters want a statist, big government party, they will vote Labour or Green.

    If voters want to rejoin the EU they will vote LD or Green, if they are staunch Leavers they will vote Reform or Restore.

    The Tories need to be a distinct centre right party, low tax and small state without being pure laissez-faire, backing choice in public services, socially moderate but not uber liberal or uber socially conservative and white nationalist either. Accepting of Brexit but with the trade deal with the EU and for controlled immigration but not being for deportation of migrants like Restore or removing even those with indefinite leave to Remain like Reform
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,630

    DavidL said:

    First. I note that Reform’s odds for Makerfield have come in overnight.

    A reaction to the private poll which I am told is a kosher poll.
    Showing a Reform win?
    No, this poll.

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
    That will be the poll that Restore will point to when they get more like 2% rather than the 12% indicated?
    I did hear from a very deflated Tory canvasser that they comfortably found more Restore voters than Tory voters.

    Their view is the Tories ain't ever winning again until GB News and social media are banned in the UK.
    The Kemi paradox.

    The things that give her most life as a politician are the ones that are killing her chances of being PM.

    Britain Elects

    ✅ Conservative HOLD

    Christleton and Huntington (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:

    CON: 32.9% (+8.1)
    GRN: 30.4% (+8.2)
    REF: 17.2% (+17.2)
    LAB: 10.5% (-8.1)
    LDEM: 9.0% (-8.0)

    No Ind (-17.4) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~44% (-3)
    And?

    The obvious counterpoint is No Ind compared to last time.

    Local factors, there are always local factors.
    Yes, we should focus on this one single result and ignore the the results of the May locals.
    You and I campaigned for David Cameron, and I campaigned for the conservatives from the 1964 GE so I do not understand your animosity towards the conservative party of today so maybe it is fair to ask what do you want the conservative party to represent other than pro EU which is not on their agenda ?
    You voted for Blair twice.

    I want a fiscally sound, socially liberal policies, the rhetoric out of the mouths of Katie Lam and Nick Philip are the language out of Farage, the Tories will not win trying to out Reform Reform.
    They won't win with Osbornism either.

    What you consistently fail to realise is that it isn't 2005 anymore, and voters want solutions today on immigration and security, and deciding to not talk about it is not a winning strategy.
    On Orbanism, the amount of money misdirected (choosing my word carefully) from the Hungarian State is estimated to be of the order of 150 billion Euro.

    (Hungary's GDP is around 270 billion Euro)

    https://www.hungarianconservative.com/articles/current/hungary-systemic-corruption-integrity-authority-ferenc-biro-viktor-orban/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,821
    Ordinary Russians are starting to leave Crimea.

    https://x.com/natalkakyiv/status/2065163444853076075
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,479
    FF43 said:

    Cicero said:

    DavidL said:

    First. I note that Reform’s odds for Makerfield have come in overnight.

    A reaction to the private poll which I am told is a kosher poll.
    Showing a Reform win?
    No, this poll.

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
    That will be the poll that Restore will point to when they get more like 2% rather than the 12% indicated?
    I did hear from a very deflated Tory canvasser that they comfortably found more Restore voters than Tory voters.

    Their view is the Tories ain't ever winning again until GB News and social media are banned in the UK.
    The Kemi paradox.

    The things that give her most life as a politician are the ones that are killing her chances of being PM.

    Britain Elects

    ✅ Conservative HOLD

    Christleton and Huntington (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:

    CON: 32.9% (+8.1)
    GRN: 30.4% (+8.2)
    REF: 17.2% (+17.2)
    LAB: 10.5% (-8.1)
    LDEM: 9.0% (-8.0)

    No Ind (-17.4) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~44% (-3)
    And?

    The obvious counterpoint is No Ind compared to last time.

    Local factors, there are always local factors.
    Yes, we should focus on this one single result and ignore the the results of the May locals.
    You and I campaigned for David Cameron, and I campaigned for the conservatives from the 1964 GE so I do not understand your animosity towards the conservative party of today so maybe it is fair to ask what do you want the conservative party to represent other than pro EU which is not on their agenda ?
    The problems are that:
    a) Brexit was a deeply unserious policy that has cost the UK a significant proportion of its GDP- an estimated 140 billion directly and another 900 billion in the funds leaving the City, and with it 40,000 well paid city jobs. That is before we discuss the evisceration of our farmers and food processors and the regulatory drag for all trade with the EU- a cost that reduces our projected growth every single year. So Brexit is an economic mess, and the Uk economy is growing more fragile the longer we fail to address it.
    b) The advent of the Putin war and the Trump fiasco has left us militarily and strategically vulnerable, and the only viable way to maintain our strategic independence is to re-engage and indeed develop further our cooperation with NATO allies- which now includes all but 4 members of the EU- Ireland, Austria, Malta, Cyprus. Ireland,. Meanwhile Iceland is now likely to vote yes to the joining the EU in August, and this may trigger a Norwegian accession process. Even Canada is developing a much closer relationship than anything the Tories have proposed.

    So the Tories need to get serious. Now.
    Citation for the bit in bold? I assume in your eyes if we had stayed in our growth would have far exceeded the European average rather than just matching it, as it has done.
    Brexit was a choice to be poorer as a country. Maybe it's worth it for reasons no-one seems able to articulate. No serious person would claim otherwise if they accept trade and investment are important to a country's wealth and both are reduced by barriers introduced by leaving our main market.
    The ability to make our own choices in the world. People have articulated it clearly on multiple occasions. Now, you clearly don’t value that ability but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t reasons for leaving
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,665
    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is why he wants Vance to sign it.

    Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
    The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
    Let’s see what happens in coming days...

    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2065357315058880709

    Oman, UAE, and the rest of the GCC States aren’t signing anything that says that Hormuz effectively belongs to Iran.
    Without the Septics, what can they do about it?

    Continuing the war just makes things worse for themselves.
    Don’t underestimate the willingness of the GCC countries to deal with the Iran problem once and for all.

    The last few months have been 47 years in the making.
    So what are they actually going to do about it?

    With the US and Israelis no longer involved, what can they do?
    They have navies of their own.
    If the USN cannot open Hormuz, how can they?
    Most of the GCC armed forces are fucking useless in my experience. We had a quite a few Hawk students come through Valley and most wouldn't have got jobs peeling potatoes in the RAF/RN but we had to qualify them no matter what because of political considerations. This proud tradition endures today in the "joint" British/Qatari squadrons.

    I was young and earnest at the time and so actually tried to teach my GCC students something. The more cynical greybeard QFIs just used to sign them off to get rid of them as quickly as possible so they could go back to being dangerous in their own countries. Some of the Saudis were quite good.
    You tried to teach them something other than the location of an establishment where they could meet “actresses”? (The usual British offer to visiting Arab princes with open wallets, in search of a security “qualification” or fighter jet).

    Shocking. That will have cost us 20 Typhoon exports:
    Usually more drinkers than shaggers in my experience. Although we did have to launch a SAR operation to recover a Bahraini when he found true love with a f*t sl*g in a Hull nightclub after visiting the BAE shed in Brough where they loosely spannered Hawks together. She drained him so effectively he reckoned his balls hurt for three days.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,015

    DavidL said:

    First. I note that Reform’s odds for Makerfield have come in overnight.

    A reaction to the private poll which I am told is a kosher poll.
    Showing a Reform win?
    No, this poll.

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
    That will be the poll that Restore will point to when they get more like 2% rather than the 12% indicated?
    I did hear from a very deflated Tory canvasser that they comfortably found more Restore voters than Tory voters.

    Their view is the Tories ain't ever winning again until GB News and social media are banned in the UK.
    The Kemi paradox.

    The things that give her most life as a politician are the ones that are killing her chances of being PM.

    Britain Elects

    ✅ Conservative HOLD

    Christleton and Huntington (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:

    CON: 32.9% (+8.1)
    GRN: 30.4% (+8.2)
    REF: 17.2% (+17.2)
    LAB: 10.5% (-8.1)
    LDEM: 9.0% (-8.0)

    No Ind (-17.4) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~44% (-3)
    And?

    The obvious counterpoint is No Ind compared to last time.

    Local factors, there are always local factors.
    Yes, we should focus on this one single result and ignore the the results of the May locals.
    You and I campaigned for David Cameron, and I campaigned for the conservatives from the 1964 GE so I do not understand your animosity towards the conservative party of today so maybe it is fair to ask what do you want the conservative party to represent other than pro EU which is not on their agenda ?
    You voted for Blair twice.

    I want a fiscally sound, socially liberal policies, the rhetoric out of the mouths of Katie Lam and Nick Philip are the language out of Farage, the Tories will not win trying to out Reform Reform.
    There's an emerging consensus that equality laws are illiberal and counter-productive. It doesn't make any sense for the Tories to swim against the tide just because the Cameron government was responsible for a lot of it.
    The Tories should be for equal treatment, non discrimination but not promoting one group over another
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,821
    edited June 12
    UK gov AI job centre chatbot says work in the US if you can.

    https://x.com/ednewtonrex/status/2065309342488748429
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,997
    More Lam:

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/2065397992769671455

    Keir Starmer and his Attorney General are still trying to open up prosecutions against Northern Ireland veterans.

    Is it any surprise that they're not taking our country's security seriously, when this is how they treat people who've risked their lives to keep us safe?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,821

    Andy_JS said:

    Al Carns retweeted approvingly by erstwhile Reform MP James McMurdock.

    https://x.com/JMcMurdockMP/status/2065374720053187015

    Caring for the planet is not mad but Britain’s Net Zero policies are.

    Britain has some of the most expensive energy in the world. If energy is expensive everything is expensive.

    Labour is fighting the wrong battle and some of the best among them now openly admit they know it.

    Al Carns is far too right-wing (within a Labour party context) to ever be chosen as leader. Surely he must know that himself.
    If Reform care about cheap energy why do they oppose renewables and want to put cables underground at great expense which will only makes things even more expensive?
    They don’t oppose renewables, they oppose vast government subsidies for renewables.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,630
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    11 June 2026 - within the same morning:

    🇬🇧 UK Defence Secretary resigns, because the Prime Minister refuses to fund the British Armed Forces

    🇮🇹 Italy approves Armed Forces increase by 40,000 troops, adding a division to the Army


    https://x.com/noclador/status/2065057426877956496

    Italy is building two modern attack submarines for €500 million a piece, which as far as I know are on budget. The latest Astute class submarine is costing about £2 billion to build, or about five times as much. Astute, when it's available unlike now, is nuclear powered and more capable. Which is the better choice for their respective armed forces?
    Modern conventional attack submarines can stay under water for weeks at a time and are quieter than nuclear subs. They do not have the oceanic range of nuclear subs but in European waters such as the North sea, Baltic and Mediterranean are very capable.

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/war-games-swedish-stealth-submarine-sank-us-aircraft-carrier-116216
    It may or may not be the right choice, My contention the main problem with UK Defence is not a lack of money but an inability to make choices and deliver on those choices. Useful bang for buck is the key metric and the ratio is particularly poor for the UK.
    That's true, and a useful metric is perhaps Military Purchasing Power Parity.

    Unfortunately our sticking with the USA has turned out in large part to be an expensive mistake.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,665

    More Lam:

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/2065397992769671455

    Keir Starmer and his Attorney General are still trying to open up prosecutions against Northern Ireland veterans.

    Is it any surprise that they're not taking our country's security seriously, when this is how they treat people who've risked their lives to keep us safe?

    She's off her fucking (giant) head.
  • https://x.com/wandbc/status/2065359800129437932

    Weekend pedestrianisation is back on Northcote Road!

    From 11 July, enjoy more space to stroll, shop & socialise ☕

    ✨ Expect outdoor dining, independent shops & a buzzing community vibe.

    Good idea from the Wandsworth Tories. Glad they’re bringing it back. More pedestrianisation in London please.
  • Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Al Carns retweeted approvingly by erstwhile Reform MP James McMurdock.

    https://x.com/JMcMurdockMP/status/2065374720053187015

    Caring for the planet is not mad but Britain’s Net Zero policies are.

    Britain has some of the most expensive energy in the world. If energy is expensive everything is expensive.

    Labour is fighting the wrong battle and some of the best among them now openly admit they know it.

    Al Carns is far too right-wing (within a Labour party context) to ever be chosen as leader. Surely he must know that himself.
    If Reform care about cheap energy why do they oppose renewables and want to put cables underground at great expense which will only makes things even more expensive?
    They don’t oppose renewables, they oppose vast government subsidies for renewables.
    Why?

    And why do they want to put cables underground?

    And in any case you’re wrong, Farage has said publicly they’d oppose renewable developments in their council areas. Why?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,639

    https://x.com/wandbc/status/2065359800129437932

    Weekend pedestrianisation is back on Northcote Road!

    From 11 July, enjoy more space to stroll, shop & socialise ☕

    ✨ Expect outdoor dining, independent shops & a buzzing community vibe.

    Good idea from the Wandsworth Tories. Glad they’re bringing it back. More pedestrianisation in London please.

    Lived on a side street off Northcote Road with 4 others as a student 1987-8.
    On Zoopla for £ 1.55 million.
    Had a fair bit of work done, mind.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,972

    It’s either breakfasts for poor kids or stopping the Russkis shooting them.
    At least Colonel Blimp was a sensitive, honourable man capable of change underneath the reactionary old fool, whereas this guy..

    Lord Alan West: "Its all very well having nice spending for breakfast for children at school.. but if that means.. you have Russians stomping down your streets shooting the children who would have been having breakfast.."

    Russians killing your kids. IS THAT WHAT YOU WANT?

    https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/2065301442752070026?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It all seems so binary from Conservative sources in the media and Parliament. We can either have welfare spending OR defence spending. Apparently there is no scope from say, wealth taxes.*

    * I am not personally suggesting wealth taxes, but all the pain doesn't seem to be applied to those asking for pain to be applied.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,878

    kinabalu said:

    What is Al Carns up to?

    https://x.com/AlistairCarns/status/2065366386306601264

    Britain spent a decade choosing to be smaller in the world.

    Right now the rules on communications, energy and trade are being rewritten. By China. By Russia. By countries that take their own security seriously. We need to be at that table. That's a choice we must make.

    Strong countries get cheap energy. Weak countries pay whatever the strong ones decide.

    Andy Burnham is looking better and better.
    It's an original pitch. Not even Farage would say he wanted a seat at the table with Putin and Xi.
    Not sure it's that original. We hear tough guy strong country talk all the time. It turns me off tbh. I prefer to hear about bringing prospects and status back to working class communities. More Burnham's sort of messaging.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,454
    Sandpit said:

    This morning’s Russian oil refinery on fire is in Nizhnekamsk, more than 1,000km from Ukraine.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2065314359580979449

    Meanwhile, the starving out of the Russian army in Crimea is going well. After one bridge got blown the other day, the idiots had a convoy of 50 trucks carrying fuel and weapons driving around in a close convoy. Clearly not having learned the lesson after more than four years of war, said convoy of course got droned to oblivion!

    https://x.com/tkouilou/status/2065111993371988241

    Pretty much the only option now is to start using the Kerch Bridge for fuel deliveries, perhaps by train. The Ukranians are looking forward to that day with interest. Anyone with fuel in their car would be best to leave Crimea now.

    That is of course a good reason for Ukraine not to destroy the Kerch bridge – so Russians have an exit route.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,942
    Sandpit said:

    UK gov AI job centre chatbot says work in the US if you can.

    https://x.com/ednewtonrex/status/2065309342488748429

    Tech-bro software bigging itself up?

    Well knock me down with a feather.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,972

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    First. I note that Reform’s odds for Makerfield have come in overnight.

    A reaction to the private poll which I am told is a kosher poll.
    Showing a Reform win?
    No, this poll.

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
    That will be the poll that Restore will point to when they get more like 2% rather than the 12% indicated?
    I did hear from a very deflated Tory canvasser that they comfortably found more Restore voters than Tory voters.

    Their view is the Tories ain't ever winning again until GB News and social media are banned in the UK.
    The Kemi paradox.

    The things that give her most life as a politician are the ones that are killing her chances of being PM.

    Britain Elects

    ✅ Conservative HOLD

    Christleton and Huntington (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:

    CON: 32.9% (+8.1)
    GRN: 30.4% (+8.2)
    REF: 17.2% (+17.2)
    LAB: 10.5% (-8.1)
    LDEM: 9.0% (-8.0)

    No Ind (-17.4) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~44% (-3)
    And?

    The obvious counterpoint is No Ind compared to last time.

    Local factors, there are always local factors.
    Yes, we should focus on this one single result and ignore the the results of the May locals.
    You and I campaigned for David Cameron, and I campaigned for the conservatives from the 1964 GE so I do not understand your animosity towards the conservative party of today so maybe it is fair to ask what do you want the conservative party to represent other than pro EU which is not on their agenda ?
    You voted for Blair twice.

    I want a fiscally sound, socially liberal policies, the rhetoric out of the mouths of Katie Lam and Nick Philip are the language out of Farage, the Tories will not win trying to out Reform Reform.
    'You voted for Blair twice.'

    TSE clearly keeps an archive of my posts
    I have said many times I voted for Blair twice and I also voted remain
    Hah. In recent weeks Blair has proven he was nothing less than a war mongering Tory!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,951

    More Lam:

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/2065397992769671455

    Keir Starmer and his Attorney General are still trying to open up prosecutions against Northern Ireland veterans.

    Is it any surprise that they're not taking our country's security seriously, when this is how they treat people who've risked their lives to keep us safe?

    Risked their lives? I guess Soldier F could have got a nasty blister from the amount of rounds he fired on Bloody Sunday.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,630
    edited June 12

    It’s either breakfasts for poor kids or stopping the Russkis shooting them.
    At least Colonel Blimp was a sensitive, honourable man capable of change underneath the reactionary old fool, whereas this guy..

    Lord Alan West: "Its all very well having nice spending for breakfast for children at school.. but if that means.. you have Russians stomping down your streets shooting the children who would have been having breakfast.."

    Russians killing your kids. IS THAT WHAT YOU WANT?

    https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/2065301442752070026?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Curious. Not that long ago it was the overseas-aid budget that was sucking the funding from Britain's defence requirements.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1156278/jacob-rees-mogg-iran-jeremy-hunt-boris-johnson-lbc-brexit-news-video

    Rachel and Sir Keir slashed that in half, but now it's breakfast clubs that are the problem. What gives?
    Lord Alan West (why am I reminded of Walk on the Wild side?) is an excellent argument for Members of the Lords to retire at 80.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,972

    More Lam:

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/2065397992769671455

    Keir Starmer and his Attorney General are still trying to open up prosecutions against Northern Ireland veterans.

    Is it any surprise that they're not taking our country's security seriously, when this is how they treat people who've risked their lives to keep us safe?

    Is she on Reform watch?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,682
    Dura_Ace said:

    More Lam:

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/2065397992769671455

    Keir Starmer and his Attorney General are still trying to open up prosecutions against Northern Ireland veterans.

    Is it any surprise that they're not taking our country's security seriously, when this is how they treat people who've risked their lives to keep us safe?

    She's off her fucking (giant) head.
    On the subject of persecutions in NI. Anyone want to bet on there being any for the race riots?

    There won't - unless you count some junior spides getting a slap in a magistrates court.

    There is a reason that arson against homes is considered a very serious offence. In Japan, that used to get you the death penalty, even if someone didn't get killed. because the risk of murdering people in domestic arson is high.

    That's before we get to the racist character of the offences.

    But nothing will happen.

    That's real two tier justice.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,254
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    First. I note that Reform’s odds for Makerfield have come in overnight.

    A reaction to the private poll which I am told is a kosher poll.
    Showing a Reform win?
    No, this poll.

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
    That will be the poll that Restore will point to when they get more like 2% rather than the 12% indicated?
    I did hear from a very deflated Tory canvasser that they comfortably found more Restore voters than Tory voters.

    Their view is the Tories ain't ever winning again until GB News and social media are banned in the UK.
    The Kemi paradox.

    The things that give her most life as a politician are the ones that are killing her chances of being PM.

    Britain Elects

    ✅ Conservative HOLD

    Christleton and Huntington (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:

    CON: 32.9% (+8.1)
    GRN: 30.4% (+8.2)
    REF: 17.2% (+17.2)
    LAB: 10.5% (-8.1)
    LDEM: 9.0% (-8.0)

    No Ind (-17.4) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~44% (-3)
    And?

    The obvious counterpoint is No Ind compared to last time.

    Local factors, there are always local factors.
    Yes, we should focus on this one single result and ignore the the results of the May locals.
    You and I campaigned for David Cameron, and I campaigned for the conservatives from the 1964 GE so I do not understand your animosity towards the conservative party of today so maybe it is fair to ask what do you want the conservative party to represent other than pro EU which is not on their agenda ?
    I would suggest being liberal on social and cultural issues.

    Social conservatism is almost always a euphemism for bigotry.
    Then that is the liberal party
    Yes, if voters want a socially liberal party they will vote LD, if voters want a socially conservative, anti immigration party they will vote Reform or Restore. If voters want a statist, big government party, they will vote Labour or Green.

    If voters want to rejoin the EU they will vote LD or Green, if they are staunch Leavers they will vote Reform or Restore.

    The Tories need to be a distinct centre right party, low tax and small state without being pure laissez-faire, backing choice in public services, socially moderate but not uber liberal or uber socially conservative and white nationalist either. Accepting of Brexit but with the trade deal with the EU and for controlled immigration but not being for deportation of migrants like Restore or removing even those with indefinite leave to Remain like Reform
    Good we are on the same page
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,682

    More Lam:

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/2065397992769671455

    Keir Starmer and his Attorney General are still trying to open up prosecutions against Northern Ireland veterans.

    Is it any surprise that they're not taking our country's security seriously, when this is how they treat people who've risked their lives to keep us safe?

    Risked their lives? I guess Soldier F could have got a nasty blister from the amount of rounds he fired on Bloody Sunday.
    Someone wanted the army sent in to shoot the rioters yesterday. Is soldier F busy, or can he do consultancy?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,972
    edited June 12
    MattW said:

    It’s either breakfasts for poor kids or stopping the Russkis shooting them.
    At least Colonel Blimp was a sensitive, honourable man capable of change underneath the reactionary old fool, whereas this guy..

    Lord Alan West: "Its all very well having nice spending for breakfast for children at school.. but if that means.. you have Russians stomping down your streets shooting the children who would have been having breakfast.."

    Russians killing your kids. IS THAT WHAT YOU WANT?

    https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/2065301442752070026?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Curious. Not that long ago it was the overseas-aid budget that was sucking the funding from Britain's defence requirements.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1156278/jacob-rees-mogg-iran-jeremy-hunt-boris-johnson-lbc-brexit-news-video

    Rachel and Sir Keir slashed that in half, but now it's breakfast clubs that are the problem. What gives?
    Lord Alan West (why am I reminded of Walk on the Wild side?) is an excellent argument for Members of the Lords to retire at 80.
    Shaved her legs then he ...? I don't think so.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,878
    edited June 12

    FF43 said:

    Cicero said:

    DavidL said:

    First. I note that Reform’s odds for Makerfield have come in overnight.

    A reaction to the private poll which I am told is a kosher poll.
    Showing a Reform win?
    No, this poll.

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
    That will be the poll that Restore will point to when they get more like 2% rather than the 12% indicated?
    I did hear from a very deflated Tory canvasser that they comfortably found more Restore voters than Tory voters.

    Their view is the Tories ain't ever winning again until GB News and social media are banned in the UK.
    The Kemi paradox.

    The things that give her most life as a politician are the ones that are killing her chances of being PM.

    Britain Elects

    ✅ Conservative HOLD

    Christleton and Huntington (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:

    CON: 32.9% (+8.1)
    GRN: 30.4% (+8.2)
    REF: 17.2% (+17.2)
    LAB: 10.5% (-8.1)
    LDEM: 9.0% (-8.0)

    No Ind (-17.4) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~44% (-3)
    And?

    The obvious counterpoint is No Ind compared to last time.

    Local factors, there are always local factors.
    Yes, we should focus on this one single result and ignore the the results of the May locals.
    You and I campaigned for David Cameron, and I campaigned for the conservatives from the 1964 GE so I do not understand your animosity towards the conservative party of today so maybe it is fair to ask what do you want the conservative party to represent other than pro EU which is not on their agenda ?
    The problems are that:
    a) Brexit was a deeply unserious policy that has cost the UK a significant proportion of its GDP- an estimated 140 billion directly and another 900 billion in the funds leaving the City, and with it 40,000 well paid city jobs. That is before we discuss the evisceration of our farmers and food processors and the regulatory drag for all trade with the EU- a cost that reduces our projected growth every single year. So Brexit is an economic mess, and the Uk economy is growing more fragile the longer we fail to address it.
    b) The advent of the Putin war and the Trump fiasco has left us militarily and strategically vulnerable, and the only viable way to maintain our strategic independence is to re-engage and indeed develop further our cooperation with NATO allies- which now includes all but 4 members of the EU- Ireland, Austria, Malta, Cyprus. Ireland,. Meanwhile Iceland is now likely to vote yes to the joining the EU in August, and this may trigger a Norwegian accession process. Even Canada is developing a much closer relationship than anything the Tories have proposed.

    So the Tories need to get serious. Now.
    Citation for the bit in bold? I assume in your eyes if we had stayed in our growth would have far exceeded the European average rather than just matching it, as it has done.
    Brexit was a choice to be poorer as a country. Maybe it's worth it for reasons no-one seems able to articulate. No serious person would claim otherwise if they accept trade and investment are important to a country's wealth and both are reduced by barriers introduced by leaving our main market.
    The ability to make our own choices in the world. People have articulated it clearly on multiple occasions. Now, you clearly don’t value that ability but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t reasons for leaving
    Yes. And I do wish the government would get a wriggle on with opening Hormuz, getting rid of US tariffs and ramping up global trade, and putting Putin back in his box. Oh and while they're at it let's do something about all these people fleeing to Europe from war and poverty.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,997
    https://x.com/ellenamilligan/status/2065403980331561217

    SCOOP: I've obtained a recording of new Defence Secretary Dan Jarvis's closed-door speech today

    He warned industry + military leaders of “significant challenges ahead” and confirmed that the investment plan remains in limbo
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,972

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    First. I note that Reform’s odds for Makerfield have come in overnight.

    A reaction to the private poll which I am told is a kosher poll.
    Showing a Reform win?
    No, this poll.

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
    That will be the poll that Restore will point to when they get more like 2% rather than the 12% indicated?
    I did hear from a very deflated Tory canvasser that they comfortably found more Restore voters than Tory voters.

    Their view is the Tories ain't ever winning again until GB News and social media are banned in the UK.
    The Kemi paradox.

    The things that give her most life as a politician are the ones that are killing her chances of being PM.

    Britain Elects

    ✅ Conservative HOLD

    Christleton and Huntington (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:

    CON: 32.9% (+8.1)
    GRN: 30.4% (+8.2)
    REF: 17.2% (+17.2)
    LAB: 10.5% (-8.1)
    LDEM: 9.0% (-8.0)

    No Ind (-17.4) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~44% (-3)
    And?

    The obvious counterpoint is No Ind compared to last time.

    Local factors, there are always local factors.
    Yes, we should focus on this one single result and ignore the the results of the May locals.
    You and I campaigned for David Cameron, and I campaigned for the conservatives from the 1964 GE so I do not understand your animosity towards the conservative party of today so maybe it is fair to ask what do you want the conservative party to represent other than pro EU which is not on their agenda ?
    I would suggest being liberal on social and cultural issues.

    Social conservatism is almost always a euphemism for bigotry.
    Then that is the liberal party
    Yes, if voters want a socially liberal party they will vote LD, if voters want a socially conservative, anti immigration party they will vote Reform or Restore. If voters want a statist, big government party, they will vote Labour or Green.

    If voters want to rejoin the EU they will vote LD or Green, if they are staunch Leavers they will vote Reform or Restore.

    The Tories need to be a distinct centre right party, low tax and small state without being pure laissez-faire, backing choice in public services, socially moderate but not uber liberal or uber socially conservative and white nationalist either. Accepting of Brexit but with the trade deal with the EU and for controlled immigration but not being for deportation of migrants like Restore or removing even those with indefinite leave to Remain like Reform
    Good we are on the same page
    I don't believe HYUFD has agreed with Badenoch that propping up a Farage Government from a position of inevitable weakness would be optimal.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,878
    Andy_JS said:

    Al Carns retweeted approvingly by erstwhile Reform MP James McMurdock.

    https://x.com/JMcMurdockMP/status/2065374720053187015

    Caring for the planet is not mad but Britain’s Net Zero policies are.

    Britain has some of the most expensive energy in the world. If energy is expensive everything is expensive.

    Labour is fighting the wrong battle and some of the best among them now openly admit they know it.

    Al Carns is far too right-wing (within a Labour party context) to ever be chosen as leader. Surely he must know that himself.
    Yes, please have a word with him.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,454
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anyway, Happy Russia Day to all those that celebrate. Just having a quiet one at home at home this year.

    https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTJbHvxDWIc/?hl=en

    Cheers!

    I had a great time in Russia when I was there for the World Cup and would love to go back to see some more of the sights. Being a Russophile doesn't mean being a Putinophile!

    Russia's flaw is to be a country obsessed with the decline of its empire and also with its moment of glory in WW2. Very much a mirror to a certain country on the opposite end of Europe.
    My wife and I have the Trans-Siberian Express on our lifetime bucket list. The hope is that Russia becomes a friendly country by the time we retire.

    Sadly this looks some way off at the moment.
    A former boss did the trans-Siberian railway. From his account, I'd recommend changing your bucket list. It's a day's entertainment spread over a week. Russia is a big place and there is an awful lot of nothing in between the interesting parts.
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