What will this betting market look like next Friday morning? – politicalbetting.com
What will this betting market look like next Friday morning? – politicalbetting.com
Whatever the result in Makerfield next Thursday I expect there will be a major (over)reaction to the result.
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ICYMI
I knew something was wrong on Sunday, poor George Russell.
F1 admits pitlane blunder as Alpine win first stage of Pierre Gasly appeal
Pitlane speeding penalties cost French driver spot on Monaco GP podium but team win right of review after timing error emerges
Alpine have won a right of review on Pierre Gasly’s Monaco penalties after Formula One Management (FOM) admitted it inaccurately measured the distance of the pitlane and overestimated the speed of his car.
Pierre Gasly was one of five drivers — alongside Lewis Hamilton, George Russell, Oscar Piastri and Franco Colapinto — who received penalties for pitlane speeding, which immediately sparked intrigue given it is rare for so many drivers to be punished for the same offence.
Gasly crossed the line in third, but his two penalties cost him a spot on the podium and demoted him to seventh. He described it as “the hardest day I’ve ever had in F1”.
Alpine winning the first stage of the hearing was a significant victory in itself given they were required to present a “significant and relevant new element” which wasn’t available to the stewards at the time. This is a notably high bar to pass.
FOM runs Formula 1 and is owned by Liberty Media, while the FIA is the sport’s governing body. The FIA and its stewards were using the FOM data, as it is the timekeeping supplier for the competition.
Remarkably, it was revealed in an FIA document as part of the hearing that “FOM, as Official Timekeeping Supplier to the Competition, provided evidence that the distance used in calculating the F1 Official Timing (and hence the pitlane speed) was inaccurate and overestimated the speed of Car 10 [Gasly]”
That would most likely mean that all the drivers penalised were in fact not speeding, as many of them insisted directly after the race, given they all have a pitlane speed limiter they press. It is another example of the remarkable bad luck that Russell, in particular, has had this season.
His first five-second penalty for pitlane speeding was not served, resulting in a drive-through penalty that left him out of the points entirely. If the distance had been calculated correctly, it is likely he would not have had the initial penalty at all.
https://www.thetimes.com/sport/formula-one/article/pitlane-blunder-alpine-win-first-stage-pierre-gasly-appeal-m6khlr5cc
Russell was unlucky to get the original penalty, and even more unlucky when Mercedes made a rare mistake and screwed up the pit stop as it related to the penalty.
So our defence is really about helping the rest of Europe which we left after Brexit so it could be argued we don't need to do much to help them.
So if I was a Reform voter why should we spend much money on defence...
(note not my real view) just going for a relatively simpliestic lets not spend money approach.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2065314359580979449
Meanwhile, the starving out of the Russian army in Crimea is going well. After one bridge got blown the other day, the idiots had a convoy of 50 trucks carrying fuel and weapons driving around in a close convoy. Clearly not having learned the lesson after more than four years of war, said convoy of course got droned to oblivion!
https://x.com/tkouilou/status/2065111993371988241
Pretty much the only option now is to start using the Kerch Bridge for fuel deliveries, perhaps by train. The Ukranians are looking forward to that day with interest. Anyone with fuel in their car would be best to leave Crimea now.
https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
Our priorities should be to ensure that we can stop the shadow fleet using the English Channel whenever they want and to be able to protect our offshore assets as well as our domestic infrastructure. A large conventional military is not what is needed.
And don’t give me more dangerous world nonsense - the Iran nuclear deal was back in 2015 and Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 - it was already a dangerous world when the previous Conservative government made their “cuts.” The current government has increased spending, but they are not, it seems, doing so to a level deemed appropriate by the people that want the money.
Those people may be right, but that is not a given. I certainly do not believe that if given it they will spend it well.
Shouldn’t it be feeding people or health. Throughout the 20th century there were countries where Governments spent more on Defence than Health, The IS in the Fifties, The Soviet Union. China when there was quite literally famine. North Korea now.
For the average person is crime a higher priority than war?
Is it actually true or just a cliche people troop out?
Peter.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jun/12/ireland-asylum-seekers-northern-land-border
...The UK Home Office revealed overnight that in the past year it had apprehended more than 900 “immigration offenders” abusing the open land border.
Data from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) in Dublin, however, showed 16,600 people had sought asylum at an airport or port. Significant numbers in that cohort were thought to have travelled from Great Britain to Ireland via a flight or ferry to Belfast.
The CTA has come under renewed scrutiny this week after a knife attack in Belfast on Monday. The suspect, Hadi Alodid, a 30-year-old Sudanese refugee, has been charged with attempted murder.
The attack triggered two nights of violence after it emerged Alodid had travelled from Sudan to Paris and then Dublin before taking a bus to Belfast where he claimed asylum in 2023. Police reinforcements were sent from Great Britain to Northern Ireland on Thursday.
Before 2019, the number of people seeking asylum in Ireland was relatively small, about 5,000, commensurate with the experience of a small country on the farthest outreaches of Europe...
Not as good I had expected.
Probably.
If you're Ireland or Switzerland, probably not...
Also, you don't measure priorities in absolute levels of spending, but rather in relative rates of change in existing spending.
To his vast credit, PM Johnson stood above most with the initial response to the Ukraine war, but the wider issues over defence, especially in the procurement department, are very much still there. Look at the Ajax debacle for one example, they should have stopped throwing good money after bad some time ago, and ordered vehicles off the shelf from elsewhere. The Koreans have a modern IFV that works, licence their design.
There is a lot going on in the background that’s not received much publicity, such as collaborations on cheap drone production for Ukraine, but a lot more needs to be done.
Add the background of the US turning inward when it comes to Europe’s security, after decades of European governments failing to step up to the plate themselves, and a failure to invest becomes critical.
Ofwat have only been able to control water company dividends since 2023, so unless anyone can point to Ofwat powers predating that, there was sweet FA Ofwat could do about the wholesale borrowing and dividend extraction prior to that.
There is no "clever financing" about leveraging a company's assets and revenue stream to the max and taking all the money out. It's the same PE model that's in play from football clubs, pubs, care homes, water companies etc, the big plus with a water company is the Government has no option but to bail you out.
..Significant numbers in that cohort were thought to have travelled from Great Britain to Ireland via a flight or ferry to Belfast...
..It was also expecting to revive a post-Brexit returns agreement that has so far seen only one asylum seeker returned to Ireland from the UK.
The deal agreed in 2020 was delayed after Ireland’s high court ruled that the UK’s policy on sending asylum seekers to Rwanda meant it was not a legally defined “safe country”...
Ouch
'Defence' is perhaps the most obvious single word to describe the purpose and limits of a nation state government government. Within it all other major aspects of government are contained.
It's why it's called a "peace dividend".
Healey went native, the UK's defense industry worked out that the way it could maximise long term profits was by ensuring that the UK doesn't have a credible military, that and appealing to nationalism at any hint of buying a working alternative from abroad.
Being as disruptive as possible in an anti-Starmer fashion between now and polling day advances both of those objectives, doesn't it.
I see Dominic Cummings popped up with one of his regular “I told you so”s yesterday. I never know how much to believe - but if you can get past the ego and the odd writing style he does tend to diagnose the issues very well. I tend to be sceptical of his solutions mind.
But back on topic. The way the media is piling in against Starmer and Labour would suggest that Thursday will be closer than we think.
Yes matey, but you wouldn't be getting your ego stroked on the national media in that case.
2026 - people burnt out of their homes in Belfast
I continue to struggle with the nature of the Russian "threat" and what seems to be an over-reaction. Is there a "threat"? Yes, inasmuch as I'm sure Putin (like every Russian ruler since Peter the Great) would prefer to dominate Europe but the will to do it and the means to do it?
The notion of a 100 division armoured thrust sweeping across Poland, Germany and France to the Channel is absurd at this time - the failings of the current Russian military machine have been laid bare in Ukraine where (as far as this cynical old soul is concerned) the war continues as much for defence analysts to observe the evolution of war as it does for any sensible military or political purpose.
There are those who argue the "threat" is cyber and there's a lot of truth in that - we look to be vulnerable (though I suspect less so than is often believed) to "inconvenience terrorism" - such things as hacking into bank systems and preventing transactions or stock control and production systems so we run out of the essentials such as toilet paper, avocado or the Racing Post.
Taking down the Internet for 24 hours would be seen as a national catastrophe and would make this forum a lot quieter but the notion of a prolonged power cut (a week or two) is one that really worries me.
I'm fully supportive therefore of cyber defence capabilities being enhanced (and I imagine we can do a fair bit of damage as well though we don't talk about it) but I sense a broader overplaying of the hand. This isn't Cold War 2.0 and while the nuclear shadow hangs over us every much now as it did then, the reasons why no one uses nuclear weapons now are the same as they ever were.
What then is the debate really about? Is it about defence or identity? Having (or appearing to have) strong armed forces is often a virility test though as history has often told us simply having the men and the materiel can be more a comfort blanket than a statement of military fact.
A lot of it is, I think, back to the old questions about struggling to define ourselves - what is Britain? What should it be? What do we want it to be? Indeed, those questions have sat at the core of our national debate for a couple of generations and a lot that has happened (and is happening) flows from them.
No point doing it yet as we're better off them using all the drones they can make on Russia.
But one the war is complete, I'm sure we'll be high up their order list (as one of the most reliable allies to Ukraine for the war's duration) for delivering us the best they have at that point. Which may well be materially better than what they have today,
It'll also be a lot cheaper than funnelling money to the usual big projects we do.
But if it becomes a pattern he’s going to be right back where Sir Keir is now. My alarm bells are ringing that we’re going to open the cabinet and find it empty once again.
I don’t think he’d have done winter fuel or IHT changes though.
https://x.com/414magyarbirds/status/2065337501582086470
These guys and gals are really good drone pilots, most importantly they know exactly the size of their own aircraft from only the camera view.
We have seen in Ukraine that Russia has no qualms about war-crime targeting of civilans/civilian infrastructure. They have ballistic missiles that could make a mess of the UK. Do we have any means of preventing this short of threatening nuclear retaliation? Would any of our politicians even threaten that? Ballistic missile defence must be another priority.
"Right now, I'm the only person."
Nigel Farage believes he's got sufficient 'rapport' and 'courage' to become Prime Minister.
Very odd answer.
Besides, the main thing Britain needs defending from isn't Russian bombs and soldiers, it's Russian and American memes and talking points.
And that war may already be lost, without us noticing.
State that we will leave ECHR (and any other treaties and conventions that impede) in 2028 unless there is reform along the lines that we want to see. If we do withdraw create new organisation and invite like minded countries to join us.
That is imo, far better than either the status quo, or just leaving. We do have a duty and responsibility to help refugees but of course we shouldn't be beholden to rules drafted 80 years ago as the only way to manage that duty.
And for what its worth I probably have the same or less confidence in all the other contenders for PM (within Labour and beyond) addressing the risks and properly thinking through the place of a post-Brexit Britain in the world - and coming up with a positive case (rather than simply zero-sum debates, blaming others and declinism).
Peter Kyle: the plan is great
Naga Munchetty: have you seen the plan?
Kyle: no
Munchetty: So how do you know its great?
Peter Kyle: "Because I have faith in a PM.. to fund the plan & design a plan & lead a plan, of course & he is the PM that is fit for the moment we're in"
Belfast knife suspect won asylum in Britain under 'fast-track' scheme introduced by Tory UK govt.
Then home secretary Suella Braverman & immigration minister Robert Jenrick – who have both since defected to Reform - oversaw the introduction of the scheme.
As I’ve said repeatedly, taking Tory MPs was a massive mistake.
He’s not been in government for a very long time and has been totally away from the current Labour one.
Reform has MPs who made current policy and argued for it just two years ago. Huge opening for Burnham here.
As is much of our existing army structure.
In spring 2022, a Ukrainian grain trader taped a grenade to a quadcopter that had been filming weddings. That man, Robert "Madiar" Brovdi, is now the commander of Ukraine's drone forces.
Four years later, Madiar's unit is a separate branch of Ukraine's armed forces. He says it killed or wounded 102,000 Russians in the past 12 months—one in every three Russian soldiers falling on the battlefield, by his count...
https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/2065131997870039061
We should cancel the Challenger upgrade; I doubt we'll ever again field an MBT in combat.
Well armoured IFVs still seem to be useful, though.
Another defence review from our temporary SecDef would be nuts, though.
Just sort the obvious stuff and wait for a successor.
But taking over in 2026 will mean he can't be a change candidate in 2028/9. And with no money and no ideas he is hardly likely to deliver change in between.
Fittingly this guy was protesting defence budget cuts.
https://youtu.be/xq7s0Aapc7U?si=0X2zHPfwRC3wJWFG
(apols for the US voiceover and pronounciation of Norfolk).
I do think it sensible to build and invest in capability and capacity so we can move faster in future. If we are increasing defence budgets now that is what it should go on, rather than building more stuff, that is already, or soon will be obsolete.
Trouble is, Farage needs some experienced faces to have any hope of running a functional government- ideally 100 or so to be ministers. And the stinkier end of the Conservative Party is his only realistic source.
AI is the latest one, all of the talking points in the last few weeks about data centres using millions of gallons of water are so obviously incorrect, points to a very organised campaign from most likely China, who will benefit massively from Western AI development slowing down.
The nuclear deterrent should remain as a deterrent, no Russia’s not going to use it because they know the response, and that’s important.
In practice the UK has very little in terms of defences against ballistic missiles from Russia. They’d probably need to scramble the QRA Typhoons to try and shoot it down.
The drones Ukraine uses this month are improvements on those they used last month.
It's all in a state of rapid evolution, somewhat analogous to the use of airplanes in WWI, except much larger scale and subject much more rapid change.
It's the domestic manufacturing capacity which we would do with building.
I suggest that everyone lies down on the floor - risk of falling off chairs.
Everyone ready? Right
I believe that government needs to do multiple things. At the same time. All the time.
Let's check the number of casualties that caused.
Probability of Farage, Tommy Robinson etc of calling for "cold hard rage" in response to arson of a family home? My money is on 0%
The cheap components for drones - motors etc - all come from China, or similar.
So if something goes wrong with imports, no drones.
So if you want a sovereign drone capability, you need either a vast stockpile of all the likely bits. Or a manufacturing capability for them.
Absent a change of regime for the better, the "Russian threat" is not entirely fanciful.
Certainly Europe should have that capacity, and we should aim to be part of that.
The reality is that there isn't a vast amount the UK can do, purely on its own, in the technologies and industry essential to the future.
But there's absolutely no reason Europe should not have sovereign capacity in everything from raw materials mining and production to advanced chip manufacturing and reusable space launch.
That these incomers' failings leaves him hugely exposed on Reform's central policy target - immigration - is hilarious. A terrible own goal by Farage. A smarter leader would have left them where they were, to metastasize within the Tories.
Fun photo of the day, about hidden disabilities. I'd guess that this person may have been harassed at some time or other: "You don't LOOK very disabled."
It is not surprising that we are confused about identity when none of these are intact and a few years have shattered the assumptions. I think it is too early to see where the pieces will lie and how to put it together. But for now it is clear that the UK needs to be led by an outstanding communicator as PM (with all the other qualities too of course), and to be unambiguous about UK defence and EuroNATO+ Canada + USA if willing as our fundamental alliance
Pokémon Go data trained AI that could assist military drones in war zones
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jun/12/pokemon-go-data-trained-ai-that-could-assist-military-drones-in-war-zones
Right?
Right?
Or *cheap* compact, low power computer boards.
Or *cheap* small, light video cameras.
Edit: On space launch, the biggest problem is political. For decades, Government policy has been to support ESA/Ariane, and make sure that no UK firm attempts to compete with them. Variously small launcher schemes are given some minor support, but any attempt look at even the medium class is er... shot down.
We all have so much to learn from Ukraine once this war is over.
A table of four 20 and 30-somethings playing "Magic: The Gathering" for the whole evening. It seems they do it once a fortnight, like a Mahjong or Bridge in an Agatha Christie.
I'm quite surprised that that is still a thing.
Our infrastructural vulnerabilites (shared, I imagine, by much of Europe) would seem the obvious places to start. Could Russian hackers disable the UK power grid for a week? I don't know but we should (and I suspect do) have back up and other capabilities which would allow power to be restored within a few hours if not days.
Having redundancy and contingency scenarios for infrastructure attacks would seem eminently sensible and I suspect they exist and I also suspect our ability to carry out retaliatory attacks on Russian cyber infrastructure is likely greater.
Yet so many still seem to think of the "threat" in 1980s terms - mass columns of tanks heading towards us from the east, chemical and perhaps biological attacks as part of a huge land grab of western and central Europe. That kind of hardware isn't required in the way it was and that presumably impacts on the defence industry which would like to make lots of tanks and the like much of which we probably don't need or want whereas what we might need are drones and missiles.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTJbHvxDWIc/?hl=en
State-owned NI Water estimates that over 20 million tonnes of untreated sewage and wastewater are dumped into waterways around 24,500 times annually, while Thames, which covers about five times as many people, dumps about twice that amount.
If anything, the more transparent and comprehensive regulation in England and Wales actually helped get this problem dealt with because it was through that that people realised what was happening, and now the various regulators and water companies are incurring the huge expense necessary to deal with it.
All the analysis of this problem comes back, not to the industry ownership, but to incompetent and ineffective regulation.