Starmer: Reform are too extreme Starmer: Greens are too extreme
What's his next move, tell everyone the Lib Dems are too extreme and that if you want the bland option Labour's your best bet?
I am continually dumbfounded by the depths to which Starmer's political antenna have sunk into the mire.
Labour was elected on a promise of change. They are in the political doldrums at present partly because nothing has changed.
Kier, a friendly piece of advice. Don't spend all your time distancing yourself from the parties who are actually offering change.
The only change he was interested in, was changing his address into Downing Street. But we voted for him.
He’s the change Britain deserves… but not the one it needs right now. So we’ll call him out, because he can’t take it. Because he’s not our change. He’s a silent pretender. A watchful poser. A Dark Knight… of empty promises.
Starmer: Reform are too extreme Starmer: Greens are too extreme
What's his next move, tell everyone the Lib Dems are too extreme and that if you want the bland option Labour's your best bet?
I am continually dumbfounded by the depths to which Starmer's political antenna have sunk into the mire.
Labour was elected on a promise of change. They are in the political doldrums at present partly because nothing has changed.
Kier, a friendly piece of advice. Don't spend all your time distancing yourself from the parties who are actually offering change.
A big part of Labour's problem is that a lot of what they are trying to do is predicated on needing two terms to do it. They ought to realise that they won't get two terms if they don't deliver something substantial sooner than the next general election. The number of voters willing to give Labour 10 years to make things better is nowhere near enough to save them.
I half agree.
I was genuinely willing to give them the 10 years they asked for when first elected, and was convinced I would vote for them again based on competency and a sensible plan to get the country back on track, even if they hadn't delivered substantial change by 2028 or so.
But the problem is they can't communicate what the end of that 10 years looks like, or at least not in a form I can buy into. I don't think many in the country are interested in growth for its own sake (crucial though that is).
I don't know what it is that Labour stand for. I know that they don't stand for the inward-looking nationalism of Reform, nor the socialist idealism of the Greens. But I'm not going to give them 10 years to sell our public services to Palantir and to allow inequality to continue to skyrocket.
Starmer: Reform are too extreme Starmer: Greens are too extreme
What's his next move, tell everyone the Lib Dems are too extreme and that if you want the bland option Labour's your best bet?
I am continually dumbfounded by the depths to which Starmer's political antenna have sunk into the mire.
Labour was elected on a promise of change. They are in the political doldrums at present partly because nothing has changed.
Kier, a friendly piece of advice. Don't spend all your time distancing yourself from the parties who are actually offering change.
A big part of Labour's problem is that a lot of what they are trying to do is predicated on needing two terms to do it. They ought to realise that they won't get two terms if they don't deliver something substantial sooner than the next general election. The number of voters willing to give Labour 10 years to make things better is nowhere near enough to save them.
What are they doing that will pay results in 10 years?
They could have 10 years, they could have 20. Other than having their titles and name in the history books and expenses, what would they have done with it?
Any changes made are getting reversed. They are not making any meaningful changes, for now, or 10 years from now.
Shahrar Ali @ShahrarAli · 2h Interviewed tonight on Green Party by-election win. Hats off to Hannah Spencer & activists for "stunning" victory. But lacking principled political philosophy to target Muslim vote without honesty on LGBT rights & refusal to address misogynistic culture.
Also, when did Trump adopt his now ubiquitous 'thank you for your attention to this matter' twitter sign off? It sits very strangely with his manic mix of threats and self-praise in alternating all caps.
Whether it’s the fallout this morning from the Block layoffs or, most recently, President Trump’s announcement to curtail Anthropic’s ties with the U.S. government, the message surrounding AI has shifted and stands in stark contrast to last year’s. In 2025, the narrative was defined by the "unlimited potential" of those working ON AI. This year, the conversation has shifted to the more complex issue of working WITH AI, from volatile sector-specific issues to geo-economic ones. #economy #markets #AI @anthropic
Starmer: Reform are too extreme Starmer: Greens are too extreme
What's his next move, tell everyone the Lib Dems are too extreme and that if you want the bland option Labour's your best bet?
I am continually dumbfounded by the depths to which Starmer's political antenna have sunk into the mire.
Labour was elected on a promise of change. They are in the political doldrums at present partly because nothing has changed.
Kier, a friendly piece of advice. Don't spend all your time distancing yourself from the parties who are actually offering change.
A big part of Labour's problem is that a lot of what they are trying to do is predicated on needing two terms to do it. They ought to realise that they won't get two terms if they don't deliver something substantial sooner than the next general election. The number of voters willing to give Labour 10 years to make things better is nowhere near enough to save them.
What are they doing that will pay results in 10 years?
They could have 10 years, they could have 20. Other than having their titles and name in the history books and expenses, what would they have done with it?
Any changes made are getting reversed. They are not making any meaningful changes, for now, or 10 years from now.
This is the thing. I don't see evidence of the government making a start on the things that need to be done so that things will be better in the future.
You can make a case that they are not doing as much to make things actively worse as Reform would, and the financial system hasn't been brought to the precipice of collapse a la Truss. But what is the foundational work that is being done today will pay dividends in the future?
And yet people are still insisting it was a bad result for Reform.
Yup, given the demographics of the seat it was always going to be a very tough ask. But these seat demographics are quite rare. The norm across the rest of the country isn't half of voters being some kind of minority and a third being Muslim. The Green strategy of kneeling down and sucking off the Islamists with a young good looking white woman won't work in a national campaign.
The thing has had a brainstorm and regressed to being a 19 year old ranting far righter conspiracist in a 1980s 2nd tier provincial university. Truly remarkable.
One Green MP wins an unusual byelection and suddenly Labour will be forced to turn HARD LEFT. Whut? I don't think they like the idea that the econonomy may turn.
It's as if they are utterly terrified that discover that the Telegraph is the one that has moved, has attached itself to the crustafarian Right, and now feels So Ronery.
I'll stop there or I may say something that TSE will regret .
The thing that has really struck me about the byelection is the completely tin-eared response by Starmer and his advisors. Saying Green and Reform are extreme when a large chunk of your voters have just deserted you from them, is essentially telling the electorate they are wrong.
If I was advising Starmer I would say he needs to show some humility and the magic phrase is something along the lines of "I have made mistakes". Not other people, not "lessons will be learned" but Starmer admitting he himself needs to do better. It's the one thing that might make me look at him slightly better.
OT. Just read that Dan Simmons, perhaps one of the most inventive Sci-Fi writers of recent times, has died at the age of 77. His Hyperion series, magnificent in scope and encompassing poetry, history, horror and space opera was one of the best book series I ever read.
I'm still calling it all exactly as I have been for the last year or more.
We can reach no sensible evaluations until the SKS policies have had time to bed in and start to work through, with whatever barnacles are still attached. And get to make a judgement made on how well it is working. He still has a huge majority, and I can't see any sense in him stepping down before then; he's taken the daily beastings, so he may as well see if there is an upside.
So come back to make some evaluation in August 2026. And the Party Conference season may be the time to watch.
Today I designated Iran as a State Sponsor of Wrongful Detention. For decades the Iranian regime has cruelly detained innocent Americans and citizens of other nations to use as political leverage. Iran must end this abhorrent practice and immediately free all unjustly detained Americans.
OT. Just read that Dan Simmons, perhaps one of the most inventive Sci-Fi writers of recent times, has died at the age of 77. His Hyperion series, magnificent in scope and encompassing poetry, history, horror and space opera was one of the best book series I ever read.
RIP
I definitely read it a long long time ago but cannot remember a thing about it - it's been on my shelf due for a reread for years, and now seems like the time.
Today I designated Iran as a State Sponsor of Wrongful Detention. For decades the Iranian regime has cruelly detained innocent Americans and citizens of other nations
The thing that has really struck me about the byelection is the completely tin-eared response by Starmer and his advisors. Saying Green and Reform are extreme when a large chunk of your voters have just deserted you from them, is essentially telling the electorate they are wrong.
If I was advising Starmer I would say he needs to show some humility and the magic phrase is something along the lines of "I have made mistakes". Not other people, not "lessons will be learned" but Starmer admitting he himself needs to do better. It's the one thing that might make me look at him slightly better.
The thing that has really struck me about the byelection is the completely tin-eared response by Starmer and his advisors. Saying Green and Reform are extreme when a large chunk of your voters have just deserted you from them, is essentially telling the electorate they are wrong.
If I was advising Starmer I would say he needs to show some humility and the magic phrase is something along the lines of "I have made mistakes". Not other people, not "lessons will be learned" but Starmer admitting he himself needs to do better. It's the one thing that might make me look at him slightly better.
He's been admitting making mistakes for the past 2 weeks or so.
OT. Just read that Dan Simmons, perhaps one of the most inventive Sci-Fi writers of recent times, has died at the age of 77. His Hyperion series, magnificent in scope and encompassing poetry, history, horror and space opera was one of the best book series I ever read.
RIP
I definitely read it a long long time ago but cannot remember a thing about it - it's been on my shelf due for a reread for years, and now seems like the time.
For me the image of the Shrike has remained in the forefront of my mind for decades.
I'm still calling it all exactly as I have been for the last year or more.
We can reach no sensible evaluations until the SKS policies have had time to bed in and start to work through, with whatever barnacles are still attached. And get to make a judgement made on how well it is working. He still has a huge majority, and I can't see any sense in him stepping down before then; he's taken the daily beastings, so he may as well see if there is an upside.
So come back to make some evaluation in August 2026. And the Party Conference season may be the time to watch.
Or I could be completely wrong.
For me, for Labour to get re-elected they need to do 3 things:
1) See a growing economy and noticeable improvement in the cost of living 2) See noticeable improvements in public services 3) Stop the boats
Putting my most neutral hat on:
1) The economy is still low growth as it was under the Tories, Lab have made some measures to bring down fuel bills but thresholds have been freezed so probably balances out. 2) NHS waiting lists have come down somewhat but hard to know if that can be sustained with more strikes 3) No gangs have been smashed and many on the left don't want to.
I'm not sure what the planned government bills will do to help fix this
I'm still calling it all exactly as I have been for the last year or more.
We can reach no sensible evaluations until the SKS policies have had time to bed in and start to work through, with whatever barnacles are still attached. And get to make a judgement made on how well it is working. He still has a huge majority, and I can't see any sense in him stepping down before then; he's taken the daily beastings, so he may as well see if there is an upside.
So come back to make some evaluation in August 2026. And the Party Conference season may be the time to watch.
Or I could be completely wrong.
The Government is done. It's now about whether Labour can survive as a political force.
The thing that has really struck me about the byelection is the completely tin-eared response by Starmer and his advisors. Saying Green and Reform are extreme when a large chunk of your voters have just deserted you from them, is essentially telling the electorate they are wrong.
If I was advising Starmer I would say he needs to show some humility and the magic phrase is something along the lines of "I have made mistakes". Not other people, not "lessons will be learned" but Starmer admitting he himself needs to do better. It's the one thing that might make me look at him slightly better.
The thing that has really struck me about the byelection is the completely tin-eared response by Starmer and his advisors. Saying Green and Reform are extreme when a large chunk of your voters have just deserted you from them, is essentially telling the electorate they are wrong.
If I was advising Starmer I would say he needs to show some humility and the magic phrase is something along the lines of "I have made mistakes". Not other people, not "lessons will be learned" but Starmer admitting he himself needs to do better. It's the one thing that might make me look at him slightly better.
He's been admitting making mistakes for the past 2 weeks or so.
It's a shame hes not Mr Perfect.
The success of Trump, Vance and friends shows that admitting you’ve made mistakes and apologising is the last thing you should do in today’s climate. Success comes from doubling down, shouting that your detractors are crazy idiots and terrible journalists, lying, lying again, and showing your voters that you hate - and are willing to do bad things to - the same people they hate.
OT. Just read that Dan Simmons, perhaps one of the most inventive Sci-Fi writers of recent times, has died at the age of 77. His Hyperion series, magnificent in scope and encompassing poetry, history, horror and space opera was one of the best book series I ever read.
The thing that has really struck me about the byelection is the completely tin-eared response by Starmer and his advisors. Saying Green and Reform are extreme when a large chunk of your voters have just deserted you from them, is essentially telling the electorate they are wrong.
If I was advising Starmer I would say he needs to show some humility and the magic phrase is something along the lines of "I have made mistakes". Not other people, not "lessons will be learned" but Starmer admitting he himself needs to do better. It's the one thing that might make me look at him slightly better.
The thing that has really struck me about the byelection is the completely tin-eared response by Starmer and his advisors. Saying Green and Reform are extreme when a large chunk of your voters have just deserted you from them, is essentially telling the electorate they are wrong.
If I was advising Starmer I would say he needs to show some humility and the magic phrase is something along the lines of "I have made mistakes". Not other people, not "lessons will be learned" but Starmer admitting he himself needs to do better. It's the one thing that might make me look at him slightly better.
He's been admitting making mistakes for the past 2 weeks or so.
It's a shame hes not Mr Perfect.
The success of Trump, Vance and friends shows that admitting you’ve made mistakes and apologising is the last thing you should do in today’s climate. Success comes from doubling down, shouting that your detractors are crazy idiots and terrible journalists, lying, lying again, and showing your voters that you hate - and are willing to do bad things to - the same people they hate.
Depressingly accurate. We are not immune to the tendency.
I'm still calling it all exactly as I have been for the last year or more.
We can reach no sensible evaluations until the SKS policies have had time to bed in and start to work through, with whatever barnacles are still attached. And get to make a judgement made on how well it is working. He still has a huge majority, and I can't see any sense in him stepping down before then; he's taken the daily beastings, so he may as well see if there is an upside.
So come back to make some evaluation in August 2026. And the Party Conference season may be the time to watch.
Or I could be completely wrong.
The Government is done. It's now about whether Labour can survive as a political force.
Trump congratulated a guy who is being pressured to resign, including by several GOP colleagues, over allegations that he coerced a sexual relationship with a staff member who later killed herself.
He'd be a great choice, since even if he leads the party to a recovery he's losing his seat next time anyway, so you don't have to worry about him overstaying his welcome.
Probably last chance saloon for the right of Labour. If not Wes we have 3 years of comedy socialism ahead
The problem is not the right-wing of Labour: it has a long history in the party and includes luminaries such as Denis Healey. The problem is that it and the left are splintered. Look at the factions
Streeting/Blair Labour. Only knows one trick: privatising and shredding the left. It doesn't work any more and they keep pushing on string
Mahmood/Blue Labour. Only knows one trick: bashing and whining. Badenoch can do that better and get more votes
Rayner/Old Labour. Only knows one trick: tax and spend. You need a competent state to do that and we haven't got one.
In the 1990s this was a coherent whole, but in the 2020s it isn't and even if it was it still wouldn't work.
Badenoch got the lowest Tory vote in history last night.
If the public had any trust, interest or faith in her, why did she perform so badly.
Real votes Obliterated
Because the only right of centre party that could win was Reform, hence the Tories ran a half hearted campaign a la Labour when they let the Lib Dems win a couple of By Elections in the last parliament
The fact is that VI/votes ebb and flow over the course of a parliament. why should it be any more silly to say that there is a pathway for the Tories to recover than it was to say the Greens could be 6/1 to win most seats when they were 50/1 three months ago, or that Reform would be Even money to win most seats for a long while, having only less than 20% of the vote in 2024?
LOTO Starmer was 7/1 to get a majority at this stage of the last parliament, and almost resigned after Labour lost a By Election in tone of their strongest seats, yet he won a huge majority.
Kemi actually has some underlying metrics that play well; her leader ratings are good, and improving, and she beats every other leader in a head to head as best PM. Leading the Tories after 2024 GE was a thankless task, especially with the emergence of Refrm, and she is doing ok ,with some signs of better times ahead. A bad result in an unwinnable seat is neither here nor there
I actually think what people are missing from last night is that Reform probably picked up close to three quarters of white voters last night. Obviously it's an odd mix of demographics but it does show that Reform do seem able to capture a majority of white working class voters. If they manage to do the same in 2029 there's far more constituencies that have a large majority of white people than are like last night where around half are some kind of minority and a third Muslim.
Reform are still winning the demographic that will push them into winning most seats, it's just that last night the by election didn't have enough of them to get them over the line.
75% of white voters? If we assume that turnout was consistent across ethnicities, there were 26,000 white voters, which would mean 19,000 for Reform. But they only got 11,000 in total, which translates to about 40% of those voters. assuming that only white people voted for them.
That in itself is a very impressive figure, so there's no need to make nonsense up like "75%". But it does mean 60% of white people went for the left-wing parties. And FWIW, turnout among white people is usually about 10-20ppt higher - it would stretch credulity to suggest the difference was inverted to such an extent that 40% turns into 75%.
This is a bit like your claim that Khan only wins because of the Muslim vote in London - which is only 15% of the population.
I'm still calling it all exactly as I have been for the last year or more.
We can reach no sensible evaluations until the SKS policies have had time to bed in and start to work through, with whatever barnacles are still attached. And get to make a judgement made on how well it is working. He still has a huge majority, and I can't see any sense in him stepping down before then; he's taken the daily beastings, so he may as well see if there is an upside.
So come back to make some evaluation in August 2026. And the Party Conference season may be the time to watch.
Or I could be completely wrong.
For me, for Labour to get re-elected they need to do 3 things:
1) See a growing economy and noticeable improvement in the cost of living 2) See noticeable improvements in public services 3) Stop the boats
Putting my most neutral hat on:
1) The economy is still low growth as it was under the Tories, Lab have made some measures to bring down fuel bills but thresholds have been freezed so probably balances out. 2) NHS waiting lists have come down somewhat but hard to know if that can be sustained with more strikes 3) No gangs have been smashed and many on the left don't want to.
I'm not sure what the planned government bills will do to help fix this
I agree those 3 things are crucial. But even if they happen I doubt it would do the trick without a change of PM. Starmer seems unable to forge a connection with the public and it's hard to see that changing.
The thing that has really struck me about the byelection is the completely tin-eared response by Starmer and his advisors. Saying Green and Reform are extreme when a large chunk of your voters have just deserted you from them, is essentially telling the electorate they are wrong.
If I was advising Starmer I would say he needs to show some humility and the magic phrase is something along the lines of "I have made mistakes". Not other people, not "lessons will be learned" but Starmer admitting he himself needs to do better. It's the one thing that might make me look at him slightly better.
The thing that has really struck me about the byelection is the completely tin-eared response by Starmer and his advisors. Saying Green and Reform are extreme when a large chunk of your voters have just deserted you from them, is essentially telling the electorate they are wrong.
If I was advising Starmer I would say he needs to show some humility and the magic phrase is something along the lines of "I have made mistakes". Not other people, not "lessons will be learned" but Starmer admitting he himself needs to do better. It's the one thing that might make me look at him slightly better.
He's been admitting making mistakes for the past 2 weeks or so.
Knowing where Hannah comes from in Bolton, what her house was like growing up and having met her mum a couple of times, if she's working class in today's Britain than I must be a Victorian street urchin.
Knowing where Hannah comes from in Bolton, what her house was like growing up and having met her mum a couple of times, if she's working class in today's Britain than I must be a Victorian street urchin.
I'm not sure that Keir Starmer has worked out how to tackle the Greens yet given his comments earlier today. Is he in shock with the scale of the defeat?
It was always a massive ask for Reform to take the seat, I think in the cold light of day they'll take this result as it weakens Labour. Its how they perform in the grittier northern seats which will count at the next election.
I'm not surprised by the Tories performance, voters have worked out how to vote tactically in by elections. Realistically given the demographics here and national polls, the best Kemi could have hoped for was to save her party £500 on the deposit. Not a very strong reason to encourage the electorate to vote Tory.
Labour managed to poll 2.6% in the Somerton and Frome by election in July 2023. Within a year, they won a Blair sized landslide with a majority of 174.
As multi party politics emerges, hopefully this will bring an end to the "it's us or the Tories/Labour* in this seat" pre election leaflets
I'm still calling it all exactly as I have been for the last year or more.
We can reach no sensible evaluations until the SKS policies have had time to bed in and start to work through, with whatever barnacles are still attached. And get to make a judgement made on how well it is working. He still has a huge majority, and I can't see any sense in him stepping down before then; he's taken the daily beastings, so he may as well see if there is an upside.
So come back to make some evaluation in August 2026. And the Party Conference season may be the time to watch.
Or I could be completely wrong.
For me, for Labour to get re-elected they need to do 3 things:
1) See a growing economy and noticeable improvement in the cost of living 2) See noticeable improvements in public services 3) Stop the boats
Putting my most neutral hat on:
1) The economy is still low growth as it was under the Tories, Lab have made some measures to bring down fuel bills but thresholds have been freezed so probably balances out. 2) NHS waiting lists have come down somewhat but hard to know if that can be sustained with more strikes 3) No gangs have been smashed and many on the left don't want to.
I'm not sure what the planned government bills will do to help fix this
I agree those 3 things are crucial. But even if they happen I doubt it would do the trick without a change of PM. Starmer seems unable to forge a connection with the public and it's hard to see that changing.
I agree with you on Starmer, but that's the easy bit. The difficult bit is - who do we replace him with? I'm really struggling to find a candidate who is a) an MP, b) will unify the party, and c) is an election winner - and it needs to be all three.
Re Labour needing to move Left, it would suit me fine but I really don't think so. The single biggest thing they need is the economy to outperform trend and expectations over the next two to three years. Changing political orientation leftwards, or rightwards for that matter, makes this no more likely than it is now. So I'd resist that sort of reaction until they've sorted out the other single biggest thing they need to do - replace Keir Starmer with a better communicator and cannier politician. The 'new' political direction should flow from whoever that is and they do not have to come from any particular wing of the party. From the pov of next GE prospects the vision itself is less important than the ability to sell it.
Unusually, I rather disagree with you, though I agree the near-absence of economic growth makes life difficjult. The reason I'm thinking of switching to the Greens after 55 years with Labour is that I feel Labour has lost any sense of direction - rather, the leadership adopts policies, ticks off people who disagree, then reverses the policies if they think they're not proving popular. It's a kind of stodgy, inconsistent populism with little discernible basis. Communication is not really the issue - the absence of a clear sense of direction is. There's even a case for a more right-wing strategy than I'd like, as at least it would be a strategy with clearer objectives.
I completely agree with this.
You can't sell something that doesn't exist. Labour need a clearer sense of purpose and strategy. Anything at this stage would be an improvement. Then they can worry about who is best-placed to implement and sell that strategy.
Can you give an example of a vote winning strategy for Labour that doesn't employ magical thinking on economic growth and the public finances?
Mayors can choose to raise money by taxing land banks.
Right now it feels like the UK might be about to have a Trump 2016 moment where white working class voters start voting with their identity rather than on party lines. If Reform are able to capture that energy we could end up with a pretty big reform victory.
Plumber = worker TV presenter = nob
Reform have missed that bus. Mainly because cause that is not what they are.
He'd be a great choice, since even if he leads the party to a recovery he's losing his seat next time anyway, so you don't have to worry about him overstaying his welcome.
Probably last chance saloon for the right of Labour. If not Wes we have 3 years of comedy socialism ahead
The problem is not the right-wing of Labour: it has a long history in the party and includes luminaries such as Denis Healey. The problem is that it and the left are splintered. Look at the factions
Streeting/Blair Labour. Only knows one trick: privatising and shredding the left. It doesn't work any more and they keep pushing on string
Mahmood/Blue Labour. Only knows one trick: bashing and whining. Badenoch can do that better and get more votes
Rayner/Old Labour. Only knows one trick: tax and spend. You need a competent state to do that and we haven't got one.
In the 1990s this was a coherent whole, but in the 2020s it isn't and even if it was it still wouldn't work.
Badenoch got the lowest Tory vote in history last night.
If the public had any trust, interest or faith in her, why did she perform so badly.
Real votes Obliterated
Because the only right of centre party that could win was Reform, hence the Tories ran a half hearted campaign a la Labour when they let the Lib Dems win a couple of By Elections in the last parliament
The fact is that VI/votes ebb and flow over the course of a parliament. why should it be any more silly to say that there is a pathway for the Tories to recover than it was to say the Greens could be 6/1 to win most seats when they were 50/1 three months ago, or that Reform would be Even money to win most seats for a long while, having only less than 20% of the vote in 2024?
LOTO Starmer was 7/1 to get a majority at this stage of the last parliament, and almost resigned after Labour lost a By Election in tone of their strongest seats, yet he won a huge majority.
Kemi actually has some underlying metrics that play well; her leader ratings are good, and improving, and she beats every other leader in a head to head as best PM. Leading the Tories after 2024 GE was a thankless task, especially with the emergence of Refrm, and she is doing ok ,with some signs of better times ahead. A bad result in an unwinnable seat is neither here nor there
I actually think what people are missing from last night is that Reform probably picked up close to three quarters of white voters last night. Obviously it's an odd mix of demographics but it does show that Reform do seem able to capture a majority of white working class voters. If they manage to do the same in 2029 there's far more constituencies that have a large majority of white people than are like last night where around half are some kind of minority and a third Muslim.
Reform are still winning the demographic that will push them into winning most seats, it's just that last night the by election didn't have enough of them to get them over the line.
75% of white voters? If we assume that turnout was consistent across ethnicities, there were 26,000 white voters, which would mean 19,000 for Reform. But they only got 11,000 in total, which translates to about 40% of those voters. assuming that only white people voted for them.
That in itself is a very impressive figure, so there's no need to make nonsense up like "75%". But it does mean 60% of white people went for the left-wing parties. And FWIW, turnout among white people is usually about 10-20ppt higher - it would stretch credulity to suggest the difference was inverted to such an extent that 40% turns into 75%.
This is a bit like your claim that Khan only wins because of the Muslim vote in London - which is only 15% of the population.
Are you sure? Gorton & Denton voters = 77,501 Turnout 47.62% = 36,906 57% Ethnic 43% White
36906 x 43% = 15,870 Multiply by 75% = 11,902
Reform got 10,578 so obtained 66.6% of White votes. That assumes no ethnics voted for Reform.
Labour managed to poll 2.6% in the Somerton and Frome by election in July 2023. Within a year, they won a Blair sized landslide with a majority of 174.
I don't think that's a very useful comparison. In Someton and Frome they have never done better than third place. Whereas Gorton and Denton was their 50th safest seat.
Right now it feels like the UK might be about to have a Trump 2016 moment where white working class voters start voting with their identity rather than on party lines. If Reform are able to capture that energy we could end up with a pretty big reform victory.
Plumber = worker TV presenter = nob
Reform have missed that bus. Mainly because cause that is not what they are.
He'd be a great choice, since even if he leads the party to a recovery he's losing his seat next time anyway, so you don't have to worry about him overstaying his welcome.
Probably last chance saloon for the right of Labour. If not Wes we have 3 years of comedy socialism ahead
The problem is not the right-wing of Labour: it has a long history in the party and includes luminaries such as Denis Healey. The problem is that it and the left are splintered. Look at the factions
Streeting/Blair Labour. Only knows one trick: privatising and shredding the left. It doesn't work any more and they keep pushing on string
Mahmood/Blue Labour. Only knows one trick: bashing and whining. Badenoch can do that better and get more votes
Rayner/Old Labour. Only knows one trick: tax and spend. You need a competent state to do that and we haven't got one.
In the 1990s this was a coherent whole, but in the 2020s it isn't and even if it was it still wouldn't work.
Badenoch got the lowest Tory vote in history last night.
If the public had any trust, interest or faith in her, why did she perform so badly.
Real votes Obliterated
Because the only right of centre party that could win was Reform, hence the Tories ran a half hearted campaign a la Labour when they let the Lib Dems win a couple of By Elections in the last parliament
The fact is that VI/votes ebb and flow over the course of a parliament. why should it be any more silly to say that there is a pathway for the Tories to recover than it was to say the Greens could be 6/1 to win most seats when they were 50/1 three months ago, or that Reform would be Even money to win most seats for a long while, having only less than 20% of the vote in 2024?
LOTO Starmer was 7/1 to get a majority at this stage of the last parliament, and almost resigned after Labour lost a By Election in tone of their strongest seats, yet he won a huge majority.
Kemi actually has some underlying metrics that play well; her leader ratings are good, and improving, and she beats every other leader in a head to head as best PM. Leading the Tories after 2024 GE was a thankless task, especially with the emergence of Refrm, and she is doing ok ,with some signs of better times ahead. A bad result in an unwinnable seat is neither here nor there
I actually think what people are missing from last night is that Reform probably picked up close to three quarters of white voters last night. Obviously it's an odd mix of demographics but it does show that Reform do seem able to capture a majority of white working class voters. If they manage to do the same in 2029 there's far more constituencies that have a large majority of white people than are like last night where around half are some kind of minority and a third Muslim.
Reform are still winning the demographic that will push them into winning most seats, it's just that last night the by election didn't have enough of them to get them over the line.
75% of white voters? If we assume that turnout was consistent across ethnicities, there were 26,000 white voters, which would mean 19,000 for Reform. But they only got 11,000 in total, which translates to about 40% of those voters. assuming that only white people voted for them.
That in itself is a very impressive figure, so there's no need to make nonsense up like "75%". But it does mean 60% of white people went for the left-wing parties. And FWIW, turnout among white people is usually about 10-20ppt higher - it would stretch credulity to suggest the difference was inverted to such an extent that 40% turns into 75%.
This is a bit like your claim that Khan only wins because of the Muslim vote in London - which is only 15% of the population.
Are you sure? Gorton & Denton voters = 77,501 Turnout 47.62% = 36,906 57% Ethnic 43% White
36906 x 43% = 15,870 Multiply by 75% = 11,902
Reform got 10,578 so obtained 66.6% of White votes. That assumes no ethnics voted for Reform.
And yet people are still insisting it was a bad result for Reform.
Yup, given the demographics of the seat it was always going to be a very tough ask. But these seat demographics are quite rare. The norm across the rest of the country isn't half of voters being some kind of minority and a third being Muslim. The Green strategy of kneeling down and sucking off the Islamists with a young good looking white woman won't work in a national campaign.
Labour managed to poll 2.6% in the Somerton and Frome by election in July 2023. Within a year, they won a Blair sized landslide with a majority of 174.
I don't think that's a very useful comparison. In Someton and Frome they have never done better than third place. Whereas Gorton and Denton was their 50th safest seat.
It was more a reference to the biggest opposition party polling poorly at a by election doesn't necessarily mean they won't be competitive at the next Gen election (in Somerton it was Labour, in Gorton the Tories). Opposition party can be squeezed hard when they are not seen as competitive in a seat.
Kemi's result is bad, but its not catastrophic for her leadership. If it was Pendle, or High Peak and she was nowhere near, completely different story
He'd be a great choice, since even if he leads the party to a recovery he's losing his seat next time anyway, so you don't have to worry about him overstaying his welcome.
Probably last chance saloon for the right of Labour. If not Wes we have 3 years of comedy socialism ahead
The problem is not the right-wing of Labour: it has a long history in the party and includes luminaries such as Denis Healey. The problem is that it and the left are splintered. Look at the factions
Streeting/Blair Labour. Only knows one trick: privatising and shredding the left. It doesn't work any more and they keep pushing on string
Mahmood/Blue Labour. Only knows one trick: bashing and whining. Badenoch can do that better and get more votes
Rayner/Old Labour. Only knows one trick: tax and spend. You need a competent state to do that and we haven't got one.
In the 1990s this was a coherent whole, but in the 2020s it isn't and even if it was it still wouldn't work.
Badenoch got the lowest Tory vote in history last night.
If the public had any trust, interest or faith in her, why did she perform so badly.
Real votes Obliterated
Because the only right of centre party that could win was Reform, hence the Tories ran a half hearted campaign a la Labour when they let the Lib Dems win a couple of By Elections in the last parliament
The fact is that VI/votes ebb and flow over the course of a parliament. why should it be any more silly to say that there is a pathway for the Tories to recover than it was to say the Greens could be 6/1 to win most seats when they were 50/1 three months ago, or that Reform would be Even money to win most seats for a long while, having only less than 20% of the vote in 2024?
LOTO Starmer was 7/1 to get a majority at this stage of the last parliament, and almost resigned after Labour lost a By Election in tone of their strongest seats, yet he won a huge majority.
Kemi actually has some underlying metrics that play well; her leader ratings are good, and improving, and she beats every other leader in a head to head as best PM. Leading the Tories after 2024 GE was a thankless task, especially with the emergence of Refrm, and she is doing ok ,with some signs of better times ahead. A bad result in an unwinnable seat is neither here nor there
I actually think what people are missing from last night is that Reform probably picked up close to three quarters of white voters last night. Obviously it's an odd mix of demographics but it does show that Reform do seem able to capture a majority of white working class voters. If they manage to do the same in 2029 there's far more constituencies that have a large majority of white people than are like last night where around half are some kind of minority and a third Muslim.
Reform are still winning the demographic that will push them into winning most seats, it's just that last night the by election didn't have enough of them to get them over the line.
75% of white voters? If we assume that turnout was consistent across ethnicities, there were 26,000 white voters, which would mean 19,000 for Reform. But they only got 11,000 in total, which translates to about 40% of those voters. assuming that only white people voted for them.
That in itself is a very impressive figure, so there's no need to make nonsense up like "75%". But it does mean 60% of white people went for the left-wing parties. And FWIW, turnout among white people is usually about 10-20ppt higher - it would stretch credulity to suggest the difference was inverted to such an extent that 40% turns into 75%.
This is a bit like your claim that Khan only wins because of the Muslim vote in London - which is only 15% of the population.
Are you sure? Gorton & Denton voters = 77,501 Turnout 47.62% = 36,906 57% Ethnic 43% White
36906 x 43% = 15,870 Multiply by 75% = 11,902
Reform got 10,578 so obtained 66.6% of White votes. That assumes no ethnics voted for Reform.
Labour managed to poll 2.6% in the Somerton and Frome by election in July 2023. Within a year, they won a Blair sized landslide with a majority of 174.
I don't think that's a very useful comparison. In Someton and Frome they have never done better than third place. Whereas Gorton and Denton was their 50th safest seat.
It was more a reference to the biggest opposition party polling poorly at a by election doesn't necessarily mean they won't be competitive at the next Gen election (in Somerton it was Labour, in Gorton the Tories). Opposition party can be squeezed hard when they are not seen as competitive in a seat.
Kemi's result is bad, but its not catastrophic for her leadership. If it was Pendle, or High Peak and she was nowhere near, completely different story
Ah got it. Yeah I agree I think it's silly to read much into the Tory vote from Gorton.
Right now it feels like the UK might be about to have a Trump 2016 moment where white working class voters start voting with their identity rather than on party lines. If Reform are able to capture that energy we could end up with a pretty big reform victory.
Plumber = worker TV presenter = nob
Reform have missed that bus. Mainly because cause that is not what they are.
Right now it feels like the UK might be about to have a Trump 2016 moment where white working class voters start voting with their identity rather than on party lines. If Reform are able to capture that energy we could end up with a pretty big reform victory.
Plumber = worker TV presenter = nob
Reform have missed that bus. Mainly because cause that is not what they are.
He'd be a great choice, since even if he leads the party to a recovery he's losing his seat next time anyway, so you don't have to worry about him overstaying his welcome.
Probably last chance saloon for the right of Labour. If not Wes we have 3 years of comedy socialism ahead
The problem is not the right-wing of Labour: it has a long history in the party and includes luminaries such as Denis Healey. The problem is that it and the left are splintered. Look at the factions
Streeting/Blair Labour. Only knows one trick: privatising and shredding the left. It doesn't work any more and they keep pushing on string
Mahmood/Blue Labour. Only knows one trick: bashing and whining. Badenoch can do that better and get more votes
Rayner/Old Labour. Only knows one trick: tax and spend. You need a competent state to do that and we haven't got one.
In the 1990s this was a coherent whole, but in the 2020s it isn't and even if it was it still wouldn't work.
Badenoch got the lowest Tory vote in history last night.
If the public had any trust, interest or faith in her, why did she perform so badly.
Real votes Obliterated
Because the only right of centre party that could win was Reform, hence the Tories ran a half hearted campaign a la Labour when they let the Lib Dems win a couple of By Elections in the last parliament
The fact is that VI/votes ebb and flow over the course of a parliament. why should it be any more silly to say that there is a pathway for the Tories to recover than it was to say the Greens could be 6/1 to win most seats when they were 50/1 three months ago, or that Reform would be Even money to win most seats for a long while, having only less than 20% of the vote in 2024?
LOTO Starmer was 7/1 to get a majority at this stage of the last parliament, and almost resigned after Labour lost a By Election in tone of their strongest seats, yet he won a huge majority.
Kemi actually has some underlying metrics that play well; her leader ratings are good, and improving, and she beats every other leader in a head to head as best PM. Leading the Tories after 2024 GE was a thankless task, especially with the emergence of Refrm, and she is doing ok ,with some signs of better times ahead. A bad result in an unwinnable seat is neither here nor there
I actually think what people are missing from last night is that Reform probably picked up close to three quarters of white voters last night. Obviously it's an odd mix of demographics but it does show that Reform do seem able to capture a majority of white working class voters. If they manage to do the same in 2029 there's far more constituencies that have a large majority of white people than are like last night where around half are some kind of minority and a third Muslim.
Reform are still winning the demographic that will push them into winning most seats, it's just that last night the by election didn't have enough of them to get them over the line.
75% of white voters? If we assume that turnout was consistent across ethnicities, there were 26,000 white voters, which would mean 19,000 for Reform. But they only got 11,000 in total, which translates to about 40% of those voters. assuming that only white people voted for them.
That in itself is a very impressive figure, so there's no need to make nonsense up like "75%". But it does mean 60% of white people went for the left-wing parties. And FWIW, turnout among white people is usually about 10-20ppt higher - it would stretch credulity to suggest the difference was inverted to such an extent that 40% turns into 75%.
This is a bit like your claim that Khan only wins because of the Muslim vote in London - which is only 15% of the population.
Are you sure? Gorton & Denton voters = 77,501 Turnout 47.62% = 36,906 57% Ethnic 43% White
36906 x 43% = 15,870 Multiply by 75% = 11,902
Reform got 10,578 so obtained 66.6% of White votes. That assumes no ethnics voted for Reform.
Knowing where Hannah comes from in Bolton, what her house was like growing up and having met her mum a couple of times, if she's working class in today's Britain than I must be a Victorian street urchin.
And yet people are still insisting it was a bad result for Reform.
Yup, given the demographics of the seat it was always going to be a very tough ask. But these seat demographics are quite rare. The norm across the rest of the country isn't half of voters being some kind of minority and a third being Muslim. The Green strategy of kneeling down and sucking off the Islamists with a young good looking white woman won't work in a national campaign.
Oh dear. Hannah Spencer is going to get some of the most horrifically abusive misogyny ever seen for a female MP from people online who think and act somewhat like you, and seem to get some sick vicarious secondary excitement out of the fact that certain types of people have done certain things to certain other types of people, isn't she?
Knowing where Hannah comes from in Bolton, what her house was like growing up and having met her mum a couple of times, if she's working class in today's Britain than I must be a Victorian street urchin.
Is a plumber and chippy not working class nowadays?
There's me thinking PB would applaud her forgoing University in favour of a trade.
I am merely reposting what a Labour activist from Bolton said on X.
Being a plumber or a plasterer is usually a working class job, although she is the owner of the company rather than an employee, and class is usually derived from up upbringing rather than career. If Angela Rayner was working class when a high ranking member of the govt, a someone who runs their own plumbing business can be middle class I’d say
Knowing where Hannah comes from in Bolton, what her house was like growing up and having met her mum a couple of times, if she's working class in today's Britain than I must be a Victorian street urchin.
Is a plumber and chippy not working class nowadays?
There's me thinking PB would applaud her forgoing University in favour of a trade.
I am merely reposting what a Labour activist from Bolton said on X.
Being a plumber or a plasterer is usually a working class job, although she is the owner of the company rather than an employee, and class is usually derived from up upbringing rather than career. If Angela Rayner was working class when a high ranking member of the govt, a someone who runs their own plumbing business can be middle class I’d say
Does Spencer do the plumbing and plastering herself?
Certainly more working class than a posho southern public school boy academic turned TV presenter!
Anyway, now she is an MP she is now a white collar professional. Don't you favour social mobility?
Knowing where Hannah comes from in Bolton, what her house was like growing up and having met her mum a couple of times, if she's working class in today's Britain than I must be a Victorian street urchin.
Is a plumber and chippy not working class nowadays?
There's me thinking PB would applaud her forgoing University in favour of a trade.
I am merely reposting what a Labour activist from Bolton said on X.
Being a plumber or a plasterer is usually a working class job, although she is the owner of the company rather than an employee, and class is usually derived from up upbringing rather than career. If Angela Rayner was working class when a high ranking member of the govt, a someone who runs their own plumbing business can be middle class I’d say
I think it is massively common these days that your typical tradie is more interested in the business model of doing up and selling on / renting out houses they've bought, in Homes Under The Hammer fashion, than they are with sorting out your leaky plumbing. Again, something that was levelled at Hannah Spencer, this time by the Labour campaign.
And yet people are still insisting it was a bad result for Reform.
Yup, given the demographics of the seat it was always going to be a very tough ask. But these seat demographics are quite rare. The norm across the rest of the country isn't half of voters being some kind of minority and a third being Muslim. The Green strategy of kneeling down and sucking off the Islamists with a young good looking white woman won't work in a national campaign.
Oh dear. Hannah Spencer is going to get some of the most horrifically abusive misogyny ever seen for a female MP from people online who think and act somewhat like you, and seem to get some sick vicarious secondary excitement out of the fact that certain types of people have done certain things to certain other types of people, isn't she?
The Tech Fin-bros with their big swinging dicks are very upset when a working class woman gets above her station.
Knowing where Hannah comes from in Bolton, what her house was like growing up and having met her mum a couple of times, if she's working class in today's Britain than I must be a Victorian street urchin.
Is a plumber and chippy not working class nowadays?
There's me thinking PB would applaud her forgoing University in favour of a trade.
I am merely reposting what a Labour activist from Bolton said on X.
Being a plumber or a plasterer is usually a working class job, although she is the owner of the company rather than an employee, and class is usually derived from up upbringing rather than career. If Angela Rayner was working class when a high ranking member of the govt, a someone who runs their own plumbing business can be middle class I’d say
Does Spencer do the plumbing and plastering herself?
Certainly more working class than a posho southern public school boy academic turned TV presenter!
Anyway, now she is an MP she is now a white collar professional. Don't you favour social mobility?
She comes from a distinctly middle class part of Bolton with middle class parents. I'd say that makes her middle class.
It would be nice not to care where people come from, but if you make it part of your campaign then you have to expect questions.
Knowing where Hannah comes from in Bolton, what her house was like growing up and having met her mum a couple of times, if she's working class in today's Britain than I must be a Victorian street urchin.
Is a plumber and chippy not working class nowadays?
There's me thinking PB would applaud her forgoing University in favour of a trade.
I am merely reposting what a Labour activist from Bolton said on X.
Being a plumber or a plasterer is usually a working class job, although she is the owner of the company rather than an employee, and class is usually derived from up upbringing rather than career. If Angela Rayner was working class when a high ranking member of the govt, a someone who runs their own plumbing business can be middle class I’d say
Does Spencer do the plumbing and plastering herself?
Certainly more working class than a posho southern public school boy academic turned TV presenter!
Anyway, now she is an MP she is now a white collar professional. Don't you favour social mobility?
Apparently the photos of her ‘at work’ on the tools were taken at one of her own homes. I doubt many genuine working class people from Manchester go to Glastonbury either. But it makes you happy to think of her as working class, and of Democracy Volunteers as right wing conspiracists, who am I to deprive you of your pleasure?
Knowing where Hannah comes from in Bolton, what her house was like growing up and having met her mum a couple of times, if she's working class in today's Britain than I must be a Victorian street urchin.
Is a plumber and chippy not working class nowadays?
There's me thinking PB would applaud her forgoing University in favour of a trade.
I am merely reposting what a Labour activist from Bolton said on X.
Being a plumber or a plasterer is usually a working class job, although she is the owner of the company rather than an employee, and class is usually derived from up upbringing rather than career. If Angela Rayner was working class when a high ranking member of the govt, a someone who runs their own plumbing business can be middle class I’d say
Does Spencer do the plumbing and plastering herself?
Certainly more working class than a posho southern public school boy academic turned TV presenter!
Anyway, now she is an MP she is now a white collar professional. Don't you favour social mobility?
She comes from a distinctly middle class part of Bolton with middle class parents. I'd say that makes her middle class.
It would be nice not to care where people come from, but if you make it part of your campaign then you have to expect questions.
[The misogyny is totally out of order, though]
Our right wing populists really are the biggest bunch of sore losers. Do they not get that that is not a good look in Britain?
Spencer won by the cunning strategy of getting people to turn out and vote for her, partly by being a relatable local person and partially by listening to their concerns.
Beaten fair and square and they really don't like it up 'em.
BREAKING: Sam Altman told OpenAI employees at an all-hands meeting on Friday afternoon that a potential agreement is emerging with the Department of War to use the startup’s AI models and tools, according to a source present at the meeting and a summary of the meeting seen by Fortune. The contract has not yet been signed.
Knowing where Hannah comes from in Bolton, what her house was like growing up and having met her mum a couple of times, if she's working class in today's Britain than I must be a Victorian street urchin.
Is a plumber and chippy not working class nowadays?
There's me thinking PB would applaud her forgoing University in favour of a trade.
I am merely reposting what a Labour activist from Bolton said on X.
Being a plumber or a plasterer is usually a working class job, although she is the owner of the company rather than an employee, and class is usually derived from up upbringing rather than career. If Angela Rayner was working class when a high ranking member of the govt, a someone who runs their own plumbing business can be middle class I’d say
Does Spencer do the plumbing and plastering herself?
Certainly more working class than a posho southern public school boy academic turned TV presenter!
Anyway, now she is an MP she is now a white collar professional. Don't you favour social mobility?
She comes from a distinctly middle class part of Bolton with middle class parents. I'd say that makes her middle class.
It would be nice not to care where people come from, but if you make it part of your campaign then you have to expect questions.
[The misogyny is totally out of order, though]
Our right wing populists really are the biggest bunch of sore losers. Do they not get that that is not a good look in Britain?
Spencer won by the cunning strategy of getting people to turn out and vote for her, partly by being a relatable local person and partially by listening to their concerns.
Beaten fair and square and they really don't like it up 'em.
Well, if misrepresentation and doublethink is a cunning strategy, then great, well done. I suppose it works for many parties, so nothing new there.
Comments
"a TV face from a late Ballard novel."
He’s the change Britain deserves… but not the one it needs right now.
So we’ll call him out, because he can’t take it. Because he’s not our change.
He’s a silent pretender.
A watchful poser.
A Dark Knight… of empty promises.
I was genuinely willing to give them the 10 years they asked for when first elected, and was convinced I would vote for them again based on competency and a sensible plan to get the country back on track, even if they hadn't delivered substantial change by 2028 or so.
But the problem is they can't communicate what the end of that 10 years looks like, or at least not in a form I can buy into. I don't think many in the country are interested in growth for its own sake (crucial though that is).
I don't know what it is that Labour stand for. I know that they don't stand for the inward-looking nationalism of Reform, nor the socialist idealism of the Greens. But I'm not going to give them 10 years to sell our public services to Palantir and to allow inequality to continue to skyrocket.
They could have 10 years, they could have 20. Other than having their titles and name in the history books and expenses, what would they have done with it?
Any changes made are getting reversed. They are not making any meaningful changes, for now, or 10 years from now.
Even this doesn't do it, but I'm a lot closer.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-15596563/ufo-chief-pentagon-aircraft-stop-accelerate-right-angle.html
Whether it’s the fallout this morning from the Block layoffs or, most recently, President Trump’s announcement to curtail Anthropic’s ties with the U.S. government, the message surrounding AI has shifted and stands in stark contrast to last year’s.
In 2025, the narrative was defined by the "unlimited potential" of those working ON AI. This year, the conversation has shifted to the more complex issue of working WITH AI, from volatile sector-specific issues to geo-economic ones.
#economy #markets #AI
@anthropic
https://x.com/elerianm/status/2027496083635441730?s=20
RFM: 415 - 34.6%
GRN: 100 - 24.3%
LAB: 38 - 19.8%
SNP: 35 - 3.0%
LDM: 31 - 7.0%
PLC: 7 - 1.0%
Others: 4 - 3.5%
CON: 1 - 6.8%
And yet people are still insisting it was a bad result for Reform.
You can make a case that they are not doing as much to make things actively worse as Reform would, and the financial system hasn't been brought to the precipice of collapse a la Truss. But what is the foundational work that is being done today will pay dividends in the future?
So your analysis is almost* worthless.
* It tells us something useful about the author.
Go Kemi.
The thing has had a brainstorm and regressed to being a 19 year old ranting far righter conspiracist in a 1980s 2nd tier provincial university. Truly remarkable.
One Green MP wins an unusual byelection and suddenly Labour will be forced to turn HARD LEFT. Whut? I don't think they like the idea that the econonomy may turn.
It's as if they are utterly terrified that discover that the Telegraph is the one that has moved, has attached itself to the crustafarian Right, and now feels So Ronery.
I'll stop there or I may say something that TSE will regret
The thing that has really struck me about the byelection is the completely tin-eared response by Starmer and his advisors. Saying Green and Reform are extreme when a large chunk of your voters have just deserted you from them, is essentially telling the electorate they are wrong.
If I was advising Starmer I would say he needs to show some humility and the magic phrase is something along the lines of "I have made mistakes". Not other people, not "lessons will be learned" but Starmer admitting he himself needs to do better. It's the one thing that might make me look at him slightly better.
NEW: Shabana Mahmood will urge Labour to stand firm on immigration next week and "not learn the wrong lessons" by moving from the centre to the left
It comes after some Labour figures blamed the by-election loss on her immigration reforms
RIP
We can reach no sensible evaluations until the SKS policies have had time to bed in and start to work through, with whatever barnacles are still attached. And get to make a judgement made on how well it is working. He still has a huge majority, and I can't see any sense in him stepping down before then; he's taken the daily beastings, so he may as well see if there is an upside.
So come back to make some evaluation in August 2026. And the Party Conference season may be the time to watch.
Or I could be completely wrong.
I remember these predictions after Thatcher was losing by elections to the alliance in the 80s.
Today I designated Iran as a State Sponsor of Wrongful Detention. For decades the Iranian regime has cruelly detained innocent Americans and citizens of other nations to use as political leverage. Iran must end this abhorrent practice and immediately free all unjustly detained Americans.
Secretary Marco Rubio
@SecRubio
Today I designated Iran as a State Sponsor of Wrongful Detention. For decades the Iranian regime has cruelly detained innocent Americans and citizens of other nations
https://x.com/SecRubio/status/2027496762827804935
My new default analysis, in accordance with PB tradition, will henceforward be "almost certainly".
It's a shame hes not Mr Perfect.
1) See a growing economy and noticeable improvement in the cost of living
2) See noticeable improvements in public services
3) Stop the boats
Putting my most neutral hat on:
1) The economy is still low growth as it was under the Tories, Lab have made some measures to bring down fuel bills but thresholds have been freezed so probably balances out.
2) NHS waiting lists have come down somewhat but hard to know if that can be sustained with more strikes
3) No gangs have been smashed and many on the left don't want to.
I'm not sure what the planned government bills will do to help fix this
https://x.com/EYakoby/status/2027236332695675143
Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during his speech addressing nuclear talks:
“Trump is lying and his statements are not worth a response. Death to America! Death to England! Death to Israel! Death to the infidels!”
Scifi Odyssey on the Hyperion https://youtu.be/umzudlkqpEY?si=Udx6NYyo5i6geG1v
*admittedly that was RT not Press TV
Larisa Brown
@larisamlbrown
The move by the US to authorise non-emergency personnel and their family members to leave Israel, citing unspecified “safety risks”, has been described by one UK official as “flashing red lights on a dashboard” https://thetimes.com/article/4300eb41-8f24-4a1e-aea5-fc8554bb2fc9?shareToken=0472da4b11316760c9bc61e57d3e1073
https://x.com/larisamlbrown/status/2027502229603627125
@ericcolumbus.bsky.social
Trump congratulated a guy who is being pressured to resign, including by several GOP colleagues, over allegations that he coerced a sexual relationship with a staff member who later killed herself.
https://bsky.app/profile/ericcolumbus.bsky.social/post/3mfur3iafyk2z
That in itself is a very impressive figure, so there's no need to make nonsense up like "75%". But it does mean 60% of white people went for the left-wing parties. And FWIW, turnout among white people is usually about 10-20ppt higher - it would stretch credulity to suggest the difference was inverted to such an extent that 40% turns into 75%.
This is a bit like your claim that Khan only wins because of the Muslim vote in London - which is only 15% of the population.
This is unusual
Knowing where Hannah comes from in Bolton, what her house was like growing up and having met her mum a couple of times, if she's working class in today's Britain than I must be a Victorian street urchin.
https://x.com/mrmutantes/status/2027465542009786392?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
I'm not sure that Keir Starmer has worked out how to tackle the Greens yet given his comments earlier today. Is he in shock with the scale of the defeat?
It was always a massive ask for Reform to take the seat, I think in the cold light of day they'll take this result as it weakens Labour. Its how they perform in the grittier northern seats which will count at the next election.
I'm not surprised by the Tories performance, voters have worked out how to vote tactically in by elections. Realistically given the demographics here and national polls, the best Kemi could have hoped for was to save her party £500 on the deposit. Not a very strong reason to encourage the electorate to vote Tory.
Labour managed to poll 2.6% in the Somerton and Frome by election in July 2023. Within a year, they won a Blair sized landslide with a majority of 174.
As multi party politics emerges, hopefully this will bring an end to the "it's us or the Tories/Labour* in this seat" pre election leaflets
*delete as appropriate
I'm really struggling to find a candidate who is a) an MP, b) will unify the party, and c) is an election winner - and it needs to be all three.
Well, that puts a whole new perspective on things.
Plumber = worker
TV presenter = nob
Reform have missed that bus. Mainly because cause that is not what they are.
Gorton & Denton voters = 77,501
Turnout 47.62% = 36,906
57% Ethnic 43% White
36906 x 43% = 15,870
Multiply by 75% = 11,902
Reform got 10,578 so obtained 66.6% of White votes.
That assumes no ethnics voted for Reform.
Sweet dreams, PB.
Kemi's result is bad, but its not catastrophic for her leadership. If it was Pendle, or High Peak and she was nowhere near, completely different story
Gorton & Denton voters = 77,501
Turnout 47.62% = 36,906
57% White 43% Ethnic
36906 x 57% = 21,036
Multiply by 75% = 15,777
Reform got 10,578 so obtained 50.30% of White votes.
That assumes no ethnics voted for Reform.
There's me thinking PB would applaud her forgoing University in favour of a trade.
A better leader might be able to sell the policies better. But I’d not want a fundamental change in approach.
Being a plumber or a plasterer is usually a working class job, although she is the owner of the company rather than an employee, and class is usually derived from up upbringing rather than career. If Angela Rayner was working class when a high ranking member of the govt, a someone who runs their own plumbing business can be middle class I’d say
Certainly more working class than a posho southern public school boy academic turned TV presenter!
Anyway, now she is an MP she is now a white collar professional. Don't you favour social mobility?
It would be nice not to care where people come from, but if you make it part of your campaign then you have to expect questions.
[The misogyny is totally out of order, though]
Spencer won by the cunning strategy of getting people to turn out and vote for her, partly by being a relatable local person and partially by listening to their concerns.
Beaten fair and square and they really don't like it up 'em.
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