Punters continue have more faith in Zack Polanski than Kemi Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
Punters continue have more faith in Zack Polanski than Kemi Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
The Greens are now shorter in the betting than the Conservatives to win the most seats at the next GE.Following last night's by-election, here's how we bet:Reform UK – 7/4Labour – 2/1Greens – 11/2Conservatives – 6/1Restore Britain – 16/1Lib Dems – 33/1Your Party – 200/1
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1) They are working on drone technology there
2) The Ukrainians, who are at the forefront of drone warfare, haven't got rid of helicopters. They use them, quite actively.
The helicopter they are working on (amongst others) is the Proteus helicopter: a full-on drone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsghRo7yfDE
And they are going to f*** it up because Starmer is an idiot.
A related interesting question is what in practice is the lowest thinkable (mathematically I suppose the answer is two) number for 'most seats'. At a guess it isn't much more than 125. (Whether the LDs are in fact in play rather depends on your answer. I think they are not.)
Of the parties listed for 'most seats' IMHO the bottom 3 can be united below the label 'impossible', and the Greens as 'highly unlikely'. If there is value I think it's with the Tories, but the route from here to July 2029 ending with Tories 'most seats' while thinkable is littered with obstacles. Essentially the case for it is that in the end 'most seats' will go to centre right or centre left, and while the Tories have yet to make up their mind about it, they will probably decide that the currently unoccupied territory of 'centre right' is theirs for the taking. I think I want better than 6/1.
Dear Lucy Powell,
I have enjoyed our exchange of letters about which of our parties is best placed to stop Reform.
Hannah Spencer MP and I trust that you agree that this question has now been resolved once and for all.
Thanks,
Zack Polanski
However, if they split the left of centre vote across the country as they did yesterday, Reform will successfully "come through the middle" more often than not, and we're all buggered.
I also enjoyed the fact that Matt Goodwin lost.
It does seem all that dope-smoking and tantric sex didn't hold them back at all.
On the contrary. She looks like a lightweight. The odd thing is that unlike Labour I can think of two or possibly three heavyweights who are standing in the wings.
If 2029 comes round and somehow she and Farage are competing for the right wing leadership I can see only one winner
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c75e14k64dvo
https://x.com/zacgoldsmith/status/2027405001967177741
Reform is the only plausible candidate for most seats and at 2.94 on Betfair is good value.
5.6 for Refom majority less so.
Are the main parties waking up to the threat of the greens.
They’re not friends.
I was right to be a bit wary of the Telegraph story; according to the Beeb, the Telegraph has it 100% the wrong way round.
So order approved by Reeves, overruling the MoD.
If confirmed, that's the last time I repost anything from the Telegraph.
It used to be a genuine newspaper.
Maybe she is onto a winner.
What I expect is a lot of sorting. The Greens do well in student ghettos, and places with lots of poorly paid graduates. The Lib Dem’s do well in posh Britain.
Labour and Reform fight it out in the Red Wall, and the M1 and M6 corridors. Reform sweep East Anglia and the Thames Estuary. The Tory vote holds up well in posh London, and rural strongholds.
The Times is rarely wrong.
Unmanned helicopters are in testing now - https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/s-70uas-u-hawk-fully-autonomous-helicopter.html
In the UK https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news/2026/january/16/20260116-new-royal-navy-autonomous-helicopter-makes-history-with-first-flight
Guess where it is made. Go on. Guess.
Yup
"Designed and manufactured at the home of British helicopters in Yeovil, the Proteus Technology Demonstrator is being developed by Leonardo..."
I wonder how well a small c - green arrangement would work?
I’ve been a member of the Conservative Environment Network since its inception and they have people that we would work with. They are definitely better than Labour on a lot of issues.
Interesting times
Although hybrid designs, with small turbines producing power, show some potential.
As an example, here's a 10kW microturbine generator you can already buy off the shelf. The kit plus tank of diesel has around 3x the energy density of an equivalent weight battery.
https://fusionflight.com/arc/?srsltid=AfmBOoofN_RdvlP0oAbcPZ3TUew900Y3aQf6kcOhDowzxl9G4mQSk_9J
For aerodynamic efficiency, have a single large rotor on top.....
You can make a drone that can the payload of any helicopter. It will just be the size of.... the helicopter.
A ticket of Rayner, Miliband and Thornberry would provide that direction.
The likes of Cooper, Streeting and Mahmood can stay in roles with Healy, Mcfadden, Phillipson etc
Jones is a Chancellor in waiting, would be more politically savvy than Reeves as Chancellor. Rachel's ability to convince the markets can't be overstated, it's just her lack of political awareness, if the economy continues to improve she may deserve an extention under the control of Rayner.
Those who don't know her knock her, do not underestimate Ange, she is politically astute, a street fighter, very fast on her feet, just ask any Tory equivalent she has minced, she's not perfect, who is.
She'd hammer Badenoch’s arrogance, banter with Cleverly, deal with Ed and mince Farage, her clashes with Flynn, who is an excellent parliamentary performer would be box office.
Those who say she could not handle the international stage only have to look at Meloni to see how someone from the wider regions of politics with a degree of straight talking and charm can succeed.
She would have Union support, appeal to Greens and has been very loyal to Starmer unlike some.
Her time is coming
There are advantages in having multiple rotors powered by electric motors (which are getting more efficient and lighter as they are optimised for flight).
https://bsky.app/profile/tpgroberts.bsky.social/post/3mft33njvdc22
How much did they charge you for that? It will all have to come out, but don't worry dear, I can fix you a new one.
What is the lowest most seats in the past? Cameron got 306/650 (47%) in 2010. Wilson got 301 in the first 1974 election, but that was only out of 635, so a slightly higher percentage than Cameron. Then we can go back to Baldwin in 1923 with 258/615 (42%), but I think the lowest ever in terms of a proportion is Asquith in Dec 1910 with 272/670, which is 41%.
Down to Banton and Jacks (aka Bants ?).
I'm glad others have noticed that sly arrogant smirk.
Resigns after May elections is possible. I stand by what I said, there won’t be a challenge. He will just go.
Proteus (built guess where?) is already helicopter sized.
It's like the beginning of an apocalypse: Russia has attacked Kostyantynivka with banned phosphorus, which incinerates all living things, and dropped a FAB-1500 bomb on the city.
Terrible.
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/2027397579160318128
We ain’t Islamist. But not global majority averse.
And they would have found the Labour advert about Sunak just as distasteful.
Arguably that moral role model Boris Johnson started this.
It plays into the narrative "they are all the same", so arguably the biggest winners would be the outsider parties.
A climate change pressure group has targeted lawyers with a satirical children’s book intended to make them rethink their evil career choices.
Serious People is sending copies of Why Daddy’s Law Firm Works With The Nice Oil Men to "top oil and gas lawyers across London" today, it told RollOnFriday.
ROF’s been treated to a preview copy and can confirm it’s guaranteed to delight every child of a solicitor in the energy sector. Though mums may feel slighted by the insinuation they don’t get instructions from BP as well.
Recipients expecting a valedictory story of a heroic energy lawyer earning the respect of his offspring will be disappointed. As the blurb explains, “On a chilly winter night, a little penguin dared to wonder: if Daddy loves me, why does his law firm facilitate fossil fuel expansion?”
The book depicts a solicitor penguin getting badgered to change his ways by his idealistic brat of a child, who doesn’t appreciate that although their antarctic habitat may get wiped out if dad carries on taking the oily dollar, the family can afford to relocate thanks to his hard work.
https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/exclusive-activists-target-lawyers-book-why-daddys-law-firm-works-nice-oil-men
Consider us like America to be in two camps. We won't say Left and Right - hackneyed - we'll say GOP and DEM. There are various tribes within each but, push to shove, people fall into one camp or the other. It isn't really binary, when considering individuals, but when macro'd up to population level, it kind of is.
Now, this new politics of ours, Britain wide we have 7 parties in there fighting realistically for seats and they do not split evenly into the umbrella GOP and DEM camps. There are 5 in DEM and only 2 in GOP.
This means contradictory things. It gives an advantage to the GOP parties (Ref and Con) on becoming largest single party. But it makes the most likely government a coalition (or similar but looser arrangement) of the DEM parties.
So, despite using the US as a way into this proposition, we could be looking at something more like you see in those European (and elsewhere) countries which have PR voting systems. Perhaps we ought to consider that ourselves. For all its charms, FPTP is going to struggle with all this.
She seems very pleased with herself and she is correct that Labour started it by the Sunak ads before the last election, which were widely and correctly condemned at the time.
It's also potentially a cheaper platform to mass produce, and makes tiltrotors potentially much cheaper than their current conventionally powered equivalents.
Unlikely to replace helicopters, but they will find their own niche.
Real Men (TM) have one of these - https://www.thespacereview.com/article/3741/1
England smack NZ.
Jacks is an inadequate in the long format, but world class in T20.
Treasury: have you finished your defence spending plan?
Mod: no
T: then you can’t have any new toys until you’ve eaten your greens
M: but Rachel!
T: no
Unite: what the bloody hell are you playing at?
T: ok then
By comparison, a 120 meter rotor with tip jets, turning once a minute, would be simple to debug....
We know that had Reform won Starmer would have said "we need to listen to these neglected communities and hear their legitimate concerns".
Yet when Greens win, by taking half the former Labour vote, there is no interest from Starmer in their concerns.
I can't imagine Labour throwing resources at defeating her next time, when there are Reform challengers in less diverse seats all over Greater Manchester.
Ultimately she'll vote with Labour on most things in Parliament and Is she that different to a Campaign group Labour MP ?