The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
Davey appears obsessed with establishing himself as the most anti-Trump and anti-Farage politician, but what would he actually want to *do* with political power?
He’s scared of getting power, because he’d actually have to make decisions. Much better to be in permanent opposition, yelling at the moon on Twitter all day while still collecting a decent salary.
No, I don't think so.
Davey was one of the best performing ministers in the Coalition government*, and was very successful atimplementing pension reform and the shift to renewable energy.
* I said in 2015 that the Coalition will be looked back on as a golden period of good government. That is increasingly obviously coming true.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
Nope had Boris stayed PM he would not have resigned his seat and of course the Tories won the Uxbridge by election anyway so Truss would never have become Tory leader and PM
Johnson was done entirely by his own unacceptable behaviour, and no matter how blind you are, he had no way back
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
Nope had Boris stayed PM he would not have resigned his seat and of course the Tories won the Uxbridge by election anyway so Truss would never have become Tory leader and PM
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
I can't remember who it was, probably not Farage, but someone from UKIP/ Brexit was making remarkably similar pro- Russian, anti- Ukraine speeches contemporaneously to those made by Gill in the European Parliament. Uncanny!
If only I could remember who that was.
As long as they did it without taking money, or making sure they lost the receipts, they will be fine, I'm sure. Certainly from a criminal point of view.
"Saying similar things to Gill without even being paid for it" probably shouldn't be a political defence, but that depends on how teflon any such figure is, if they even exist.
Nathan Gill appeared to be incredibly thick too. Someone more sophisticated, if they existed, would more likely than not have covered their tracks.
In terms of the war chest Russia has available to indulge in covert activity, Nathan Gill massively undersold himself.
This morning I learned that Nathan Gill is a bishop in the Church of the Latter-day Saints.
The bishop got bashed by the judge yesterday.
So both a Mormon and a moron.
(You have to be pretty dumb to get caught taking bribes.)
And the scale of the bribes was pathetic. A ten year stretch for the bribe value of a used Fiesta.
He probably got substantially less in cash in lieu terms than say someone going on a swinging weekend holiday to a villa in Northern Italy.
Yes, but thats very British of him. Sturgeon destroyed her career for a motorhome.
It was a six figure value motorhome mind.
Tbf Angela's motorhome looks a bit more budget. Of course it was the static home that did for her.
If only she had said the house belonged to her partner.
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
I can't remember who it was, probably not Farage, but someone from UKIP/ Brexit was making remarkably similar pro- Russian, anti- Ukraine speeches contemporaneously to those made by Gill in the European Parliament. Uncanny!
If only I could remember who that was.
As long as they did it without taking money, or making sure they lost the receipts, they will be fine, I'm sure. Certainly from a criminal point of view.
"Saying similar things to Gill without even being paid for it" probably shouldn't be a political defence, but that depends on how teflon any such figure is, if they even exist.
Nathan Gill appeared to be incredibly thick too. Someone more sophisticated, if they existed, would more likely than not have covered their tracks.
In terms of the war chest Russia has available to indulge in covert activity, Nathan Gill massively undersold himself.
This morning I learned that Nathan Gill is a bishop in the Church of the Latter-day Saints.
The bishop got bashed by the judge yesterday.
So both a Mormon and a moron.
(You have to be pretty dumb to get caught taking bribes.)
And the scale of the bribes was pathetic. A ten year stretch for the bribe value of a used Fiesta.
He probably got substantially less in cash in lieu terms than say someone going on a swinging weekend holiday to a villa in Northern Italy.
Yes, but thats very British of him. Sturgeon destroyed her career for a motorhome.
It was a six figure value motorhome mind.
....and according to her very readable autobiography she didn't do it
It is possible that defence will move up the political agenda if the US withdraws from Europe. Defence is a weak topic for most of the parties. Labour are welfare- and culture-war- obsessed and many of their MPs don't want to spend money on defence. Reform are sympathetic to Trump, who is sympathetic to Putin. The Greens do not seem to really believe in defence, and the Liberal Democrats do not have a strong track record on defence.
That leaves the Conservatives as the only party left that has historically taken defence seriously. This could push them up the poll rankings if the Ukraine war situation becomes critical.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
Nope had Boris stayed PM he would not have resigned his seat and of course the Tories won the Uxbridge by election anyway so Truss would never have become Tory leader and PM
Johnson was done entirely by his own unacceptable behaviour, and no matter how blind you are, he had no way back
TBF to HYUFD, Mr J has performed more resurrections on the corpse of his career than the old grave-robbers did for the Edinburgh anatomists.
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
And similarly in SW London. The hidden irony behind the LibDems' success in the 'poshest' areas of the UK is that the bedrock of their support in those areas is among the less well off of the residents there. The real story is that the Tories have lost the support of working age voters, and retreated to being a pensioner party, those pensioners tending not to live in towns and cities.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
Nope had Boris stayed PM he would not have resigned his seat and of course the Tories won the Uxbridge by election anyway so Truss would never have become Tory leader and PM
Johnson was done entirely by his own unacceptable behaviour, and no matter how blind you are, he had no way back
TBF to HYUFD, Mr J has performed more resurrections on the corpse of his career than the old grave-robbers did for the Edinburgh anatomists.
Are you saying Johnson is the berk from Burke and Hare?
Oh no not another trip to Washington for European leaders .
Enough with this nauseating begging .
The alternative is Ukrainian defeat. If the last voice Trump heard was a Russian one, he's anti-Ukraine, so a trip to the Oval Office Gin Palace it is.
This seems different and Trump seems determined that it’s this plan or the US walks .
The Europeans including Starmer should have been well aware this was a likely outcome, certainly since the "suit" incident in the Oval Office.
Were the Saudi Royal Family all wearing suits in the Oval Office?
Starmer has apparently said he does not intend joining the European delegation going to the White House
Of course it's budget week, but also he won't stand up to Trump and despite saying he would, he hasn't spoken to Trump about the BBC
Oh no not another trip to Washington for European leaders .
Enough with this nauseating begging .
The alternative is Ukrainian defeat. If the last voice Trump heard was a Russian one, he's anti-Ukraine, so a trip to the Oval Office Gin Palace it is.
This seems different and Trump seems determined that it’s this plan or the US walks .
The Europeans including Starmer should have been well aware this was a likely outcome, certainly since the "suit" incident in the Oval Office.
Were the Saudi Royal Family all wearing suits in the Oval Office?
Starmer has apparently said he does not intend joining the European delegation going to the White House
Of course it's budget week, but also he won't stand up to Trump and despite saying he would, he hasn't spoken to Trump about the BBC
Lauren Boebart has been more willing to stand up to Trump than Starmer.
Oh no not another trip to Washington for European leaders .
Enough with this nauseating begging .
The alternative is Ukrainian defeat. If the last voice Trump heard was a Russian one, he's anti-Ukraine, so a trip to the Oval Office Gin Palace it is.
This seems different and Trump seems determined that it’s this plan or the US walks .
The Europeans including Starmer should have been well aware this was a likely outcome, certainly since the "suit" incident in the Oval Office.
Were the Saudi Royal Family all wearing suits in the Oval Office?
Starmer has apparently said he does not intend joining the European delegation going to the White House
Of course it's budget week, but also he won't stand up to Trump and despite saying he would, he hasn't spoken to Trump about the BBC
Yesterday you were saying he was out of the country too much.
I don't believe Starmer's Trump adjacency is much of a weapon for either Farage or the current iteration of the Tories.
I think this poll overestimates the Tory losses. Another poll from MiC yesterday suggested the Tories could get tactical votes to beat Labour or Reform for instance in Conservative v Labour or Conservative v Reform seats.
Yet while Kemi has got the Tories back closer to 20% with a few gains from Reform in the polls since the party conference, the party is still polling below even the 24% Rishi got at the general election. If the Conservatives see losses at the devolved and local elections in May then Kemi could face a no confidence vote from Tory MPs she loses. Tory MPs would then have a choice of electing Cleverly to try and maximise tactical votes from Labour and the LDs against Reform in Tory held seats or giving Jenrick enough nominations to go to a membership vote he might now win on a platform of trying to out Farage Farage on leaving the ECHR and scrapping net zero even more than Kemi has
I don't often agree with you but on this occasion you are correct. There's plenty of evidence even in local by-elections of pockets of continuing Conservative strength and, as you say, there will be some constituencies where voting Conservative may be seen as the lesser evil. The key remains whether the party can somehow remain the credible alternative Government - IF they fall to third or even fourth in the next Commons, that is gone and they will be one of the lesser parties.
The second point is we are, whether we like it or not, likely three and a half years off an election which is an eternity in politics. So much water has to flow under so many bridges and I'll cheerfully admit, after a shaky start, Badenoch is improving though she still has to establish whether the Conservative Party she leads is Reform-lite or a genuine centre-right alternative. That will come with time but next May will be crucial less, I suspect, of seats lost rather than seats or councils not gained from Labour and others.
The rank order of the vote shares and the distribution of those votes both matter more than the absolute percentage. That's what HY is missing - the reason the Tories face catastrophic losses is that in 2024, despte the challenge from Reform, they held on to their clear second place. They lost out to the LibDems because - in an unusual reversal of the historic pattern, due to both the fallout from Brexit and tactical voting, the LibDems' vote share was more geographically concentrated than the Tories'.
In current polls the Tories are in the pack, with Reform out front, Labour very close, and both LibDems and Greens, varying by poll, snapping close behind. If the Tories can pull into a clear second place, they would be positioned to save more seats (and make some gains from Labour), but they would still be hampered by the geographical correlation between Tory and Reform vote share and Reform's current clear water lead. If they fall into third or fourth place, the modelled wipeout is quite likely.
If the Tories overtook Labour for second akmost all the Reform seat gains at the next general election would be from Labour
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
Nope had Boris stayed PM he would not have resigned his seat and of course the Tories won the Uxbridge by election anyway so Truss would never have become Tory leader and PN
There would have been a recall petition anyway.
And the chances are that there would have been another scandal, because Boris has no impulse control.
It was always a question of "when" not "if" something calamitous bright him down.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
Guildford town centre may not be Cotswolds naice but it is significantly better than average. A castle, water, decent range of independent shops, fewer vape, bookies, charities and vacant lots than the vast majority of similar sized English towns.
Oh no not another trip to Washington for European leaders .
Enough with this nauseating begging .
The alternative is Ukrainian defeat. If the last voice Trump heard was a Russian one, he's anti-Ukraine, so a trip to the Oval Office Gin Palace it is.
This seems different and Trump seems determined that it’s this plan or the US walks .
The Europeans including Starmer should have been well aware this was a likely outcome, certainly since the "suit" incident in the Oval Office.
Were the Saudi Royal Family all wearing suits in the Oval Office?
Starmer has apparently said he does not intend joining the European delegation going to the White House
Of course it's budget week, but also he won't stand up to Trump and despite saying he would, he hasn't spoken to Trump about the BBC
Yesterday you were saying he was out of the country too much.
You know, people rave about fast bowling being the key in Australia, but when England have won in the past it's usually (not always) been a combination of excellent batting coupled with the intelligent use of spin bowling.
2011 Swann's offbreaks and Cook/Trott piling up runs 1986 Phil Edmonds and Chris Broad 1979 Miller and Gower.
And this side have no spinners they can rely on and a batting line up that's more fragile than Donald Trump.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
Davey appears obsessed with establishing himself as the most anti-Trump and anti-Farage politician, but what would he actually want to *do* with political power?
He’s scared of getting power, because he’d actually have to make decisions. Much better to be in permanent opposition, yelling at the moon on Twitter all day while still collecting a decent salary.
i saw dubai totally shit the bed trying to stage a triathlon the other day
[Witkoff] accidentally tweeted under Ravid’s story what looked to be an intended direct message to a third party: “He must have got this from K.”
I saw the tweet and screenshot it before Witkoff, realizing his technical whoops, deleted it. “K,” I assumed, referred to Kirill, the only on-the-record source for Ravid’s story — an unintended disclosure by Witkoff, another frequent source for Ravid’s stories, that the Russian was preemptively selling something he didn’t yet own, having worked out how American media is a helpmeet to politics.
NBC News and the Wall Street Journal both noted that while Witkoff may have been driving the car, he had co-passengers. The plan, now described as a “blueprint” for ending the war, “was worked out” by Rubio, Witkoff and Jared Kushner. What struck me as odd about this whole affair was that for such a multi-authored, monthlong project, no one from the American side was willing to go on the record to talk about it.
Moscow’s stony posture suggests it knew Dmitriev had cooked up something too good to be true or taken seriously, both of which are true.
With some detailed commentary on the detail of the 'proposals'
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
I can't remember who it was, probably not Farage, but someone from UKIP/ Brexit was making remarkably similar pro- Russian, anti- Ukraine speeches contemporaneously to those made by Gill in the European Parliament. Uncanny!
If only I could remember who that was.
As long as they did it without taking money, or making sure they lost the receipts, they will be fine, I'm sure. Certainly from a criminal point of view.
"Saying similar things to Gill without even being paid for it" probably shouldn't be a political defence, but that depends on how teflon any such figure is, if they even exist.
Nathan Gill appeared to be incredibly thick too. Someone more sophisticated, if they existed, would more likely than not have covered their tracks.
In terms of the war chest Russia has available to indulge in covert activity, Nathan Gill massively undersold himself.
This morning I learned that Nathan Gill is a bishop in the Church of the Latter-day Saints.
The bishop got bashed by the judge yesterday.
So both a Mormon and a moron.
(You have to be pretty dumb to get caught taking bribes.)
And the scale of the bribes was pathetic. A ten year stretch for the bribe value of a used Fiesta.
He probably got substantially less in cash in lieu terms than say someone going on a swinging weekend holiday to a villa in Northern Italy.
Yes, but thats very British of him. Sturgeon destroyed her career for a motorhome.
It was a six figure value motorhome mind.
Tbf Angela's motorhome looks a bit more budget. Of course it was the static home that did for her.
Looks as if it could have been procured secondhand from the Peter Murrell dealership?
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
Apart from pensioners, that looks a very Reform-curious demographic. It wouldn't surprise me if the Tories come third there.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
Guildford town centre may not be Cotswolds naice but it is significantly better than average. A castle, water, decent range of independent shops, fewer vape, bookies, charities and vacant lots than the vast majority of similar sized English towns.
Also a postwar cathedral - architecturally a decent stab at the job too IIRC.
I’ve just seen something I need to share with you all, you can thank me later.
Clinton was also a draft dodger.
I think the poster suggests Clinton and Trump didn't just have draft dodging in common. Scurrilous interpretations of the Epstein correspondence, no doubt.
If it wasn’t for Gus Atkinson England would have nothing to bowl at here.
As it is, with the pitch easing out it will only take one decent innings from an Aussie batsman and they are home and hosed.
It’s pretty pathetic to be honest.
Do you know what's really annoying?
I was right about this.
I woke up, opened up cricinfo on the phone with a mildly queasy feeling in the stomach about what I’d find there, and yep. There it was. The inevitable.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
Nope had Boris stayed PM he would not have resigned his seat and of course the Tories won the Uxbridge by election anyway so Truss would never have become Tory leader and PM
Johnson was done entirely by his own unacceptable behaviour, and no matter how blind you are, he had no way back
TBF to HYUFD, Mr J has performed more resurrections on the corpse of his career than the old grave-robbers did for the Edinburgh anatomists.
Are you saying Johnson is the berk from Burke and Hare?
No, B&H were not resurrectionists. They caught their wares fresh. (A very common misconception. Though a forebear of mine lived in the same very proletarian house as Burke at one time, fortunately not at the same time. Edit: as you can see here on PB.)
10. George W. Bush 9. Rudy Giuliani 8. Mitt Romney 7. Ted Nugent 6. Bruce Springsteen 5. Newt Gingrich 4. Bill Clinton 3. Muhammad Ali 2. Dick Cheney 1. John Wayne Bonus: Donald Trump Bonus: Joe Biden
Tweet one says Starmer had a horrible childhood (true) and that's why he's fallen for all this rule-of-law nonsense (untrue and nasty).
Tweet two says Starmer wants to reintroduce effective government (which rather implies that we didn't have it before) and the only way to do that is to reduce human rights legislation (which seems pretty contestable to me).
Tells us more about Glasman than Starmer, I reckon.
The Archbishop of York speaks of Israel committing 'genocidal acts' and repeats the usual canard of targeting 'schools and hospitals' i.e the sorts of places where Hamas base themselves. I hadn't realised the Church had welcomed back a Bishop accused of complicity in the Rwandan genocide.
You know, people rave about fast bowling being the key in Australia, but when England have won in the past it's usually (not always) been a combination of excellent batting coupled with the intelligent use of spin bowling.
2011 Swann's offbreaks and Cook/Trott piling up runs 1986 Phil Edmonds and Chris Broad 1979 Miller and Gower.
And this side have no spinners they can rely on and a batting line up that's more fragile than Donald Trump.
The key is to have good opening batters and good opening bowlers.
If you don't then you require an inspirational all rounder.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
Guildford town centre may not be Cotswolds naice but it is significantly better than average. A castle, water, decent range of independent shops, fewer vape, bookies, charities and vacant lots than the vast majority of similar sized English towns.
There are two pieces of evidence that counter this poll. The first is the recent moreincommon poll that showed the Tories are much less hated than either Labour or Reform. They are slowly losing their toxic brand. This will not win them new voters but will stop them losing voters. The second is the data from byelections. The Tories won 2 council seats yesterday both in the North and in strong Tory areas.
Data shows that voters switch between the right parties and the left parties but rarely between left and right. There has been a switch of about 10% of the electorate from left to right. There is no evidence they are going back. In the same way that the left may tactically vote the right can also tactically vote to get rid of Labour/ SNP / PC or potentially the Lib Dems.
Most of the recent MRP polls have the SNP taking back West Dumfries and Galloway from the Tories next May. The Stranraer by election this week must put this assumption in doubt.
In summary while many of the Tories in the South East are in trouble in areas such as Trafford they may well be on the way to taking seats back from Labour.
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
I can't remember who it was, probably not Farage, but someone from UKIP/ Brexit was making remarkably similar pro- Russian, anti- Ukraine speeches contemporaneously to those made by Gill in the European Parliament. Uncanny!
If only I could remember who that was.
As long as they did it without taking money, or making sure they lost the receipts, they will be fine, I'm sure. Certainly from a criminal point of view.
"Saying similar things to Gill without even being paid for it" probably shouldn't be a political defence, but that depends on how teflon any such figure is, if they even exist.
Nathan Gill appeared to be incredibly thick too. Someone more sophisticated, if they existed, would more likely than not have covered their tracks.
In terms of the war chest Russia has available to indulge in covert activity, Nathan Gill massively undersold himself.
This morning I learned that Nathan Gill is a bishop in the Church of the Latter-day Saints.
The bishop got bashed by the judge yesterday.
So both a Mormon and a moron.
(You have to be pretty dumb to get caught taking bribes.)
And the scale of the bribes was pathetic. A ten year stretch for the bribe value of a used Fiesta.
He probably got substantially less in cash in lieu terms than say someone going on a swinging weekend holiday to a villa in Northern Italy.
Yes, but thats very British of him. Sturgeon destroyed her career for a motorhome.
It was a six figure value motorhome mind.
Tbf Angela's motorhome looks a bit more budget. Of course it was the static home that did for her.
Looks as if it could have been procured secondhand from the Peter Murrell dealership?
Angela Rayner is not that Reform twat. She was never for sale.
Well, as I am sure you will all remember, not least because I wrote about it in some of my headers, there was in fact a report on Russian influence in British politics in ... goodness me .... July 2020.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
ROFLMAO
All the 'it would be fine if Boris had not been removed' beliefs seem to be founded on the idea that it was some inexplicable event which had no build up or reasoning to it.
Now, the manner in which he was replaced, with Truss then Sunak in short order, and how they then acted, means I can believe they might not have lost as badly in 2024 had he not been replaced, but the way it is presented it is as though 2019 Boris would have been the one up for re-election, not the Boris who did such a bad job that his own MPs forced him out. Mistake or not they didn't do that willy nilly. And if they had not done it, why on earth would Boris suddenly have gotten a grip when it was his personal failings as a leader which kept causing them problems?
The Archbishop of York speaks of Israel committing 'genocidal acts' and repeats the usual canard of targeting 'schools and hospitals' i.e the sorts of places where Hamas base themselves. I hadn't realised the Church had welcomed back a Bishop accused of complicity in the Rwandan genocide.
Feels like the Anglican church is leaning in to third-worldism. Their choice but I'm not sure why we want to keep them 'official' if that's the case.
That Bishop was granted leave to remain by a UK immigration tribunal and was only a priest not a bishop in England.
That article is also nearly 10 years old. It also has sod all to do with having an automatic right to be married or buried or your child baptised in your local C of E Parish church which would of course be removed if the C of E was disestablished which would be the only real impact most people would notice from it no longer being established.
You know, people rave about fast bowling being the key in Australia, but when England have won in the past it's usually (not always) been a combination of excellent batting coupled with the intelligent use of spin bowling.
2011 Swann's offbreaks and Cook/Trott piling up runs 1986 Phil Edmonds and Chris Broad 1979 Miller and Gower.
And this side have no spinners they can rely on and a batting line up that's more fragile than Donald Trump.
The key is to have good opening batters and good opening bowlers.
If you don't then you require an inspirational all rounder.
Lord Botham is 70 now, probably not as good as he used to be.
You know, people rave about fast bowling being the key in Australia, but when England have won in the past it's usually (not always) been a combination of excellent batting coupled with the intelligent use of spin bowling.
2011 Swann's offbreaks and Cook/Trott piling up runs 1986 Phil Edmonds and Chris Broad 1979 Miller and Gower.
And this side have no spinners they can rely on and a batting line up that's more fragile than Donald Trump.
The key is to have good opening batters and good opening bowlers.
If you don't then you require an inspirational all rounder.
Lord Botham is 70 now, probably not as good as he used to be.
I really cannot see where a sudden Reform fall is coming from, and so the threat of a Tory wipeout seems genuinely real to me.
The big problem for the Tories was really the lack of honeymoon period for Labour. It was too soon for the Tories to benefit from that, they were not yet trusted again, and so anti-government general sentiment goes elsewhere - on top of many people in the Tories' own ranks wanting to have been like Reform (or its predecessors) for years anyway.
Even today the Tory ranks are full of people who want to buddy up with Reform, ones who want to bend over for Reform, but also a fair number who hate Reform.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
Guildford town centre may not be Cotswolds naice but it is significantly better than average. A castle, water, decent range of independent shops, fewer vape, bookies, charities and vacant lots than the vast majority of similar sized English towns.
There are two pieces of evidence that counter this poll. The first is the recent moreincommon poll that showed the Tories are much less hated than either Labour or Reform. They are slowly losing their toxic brand. This will not win them new voters but will stop them losing voters. The second is the data from byelections. The Tories won 2 council seats yesterday both in the North and in strong Tory areas.
Data shows that voters switch between the right parties and the left parties but rarely between left and right. There has been a switch of about 10% of the electorate from left to right. There is no evidence they are going back. In the same way that the left may tactically vote the right can also tactically vote to get rid of Labour/ SNP / PC or potentially the Lib Dems.
Most of the recent MRP polls have the SNP taking back West Dumfries and Galloway from the Tories next May. The Stranraer by election this week must put this assumption in doubt.
In summary while many of the Tories in the South East are in trouble in areas such as Trafford they may well be on the way to taking seats back from Labour.
The Tories also received a total drubbing in two other by-elections in 'safe' wards where they fell from first to third. With the occasional blip (local factors for local elections), they are being mauled by Reform.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
Guildford town centre may not be Cotswolds naice but it is significantly better than average. A castle, water, decent range of independent shops, fewer vape, bookies, charities and vacant lots than the vast majority of similar sized English towns.
There are two pieces of evidence that counter this poll. The first is the recent moreincommon poll that showed the Tories are much less hated than either Labour or Reform. They are slowly losing their toxic brand. This will not win them new voters but will stop them losing voters. The second is the data from byelections. The Tories won 2 council seats yesterday both in the North and in strong Tory areas.
Data shows that voters switch between the right parties and the left parties but rarely between left and right. There has been a switch of about 10% of the electorate from left to right. There is no evidence they are going back. In the same way that the left may tactically vote the right can also tactically vote to get rid of Labour/ SNP / PC or potentially the Lib Dems.
Most of the recent MRP polls have the SNP taking back West Dumfries and Galloway from the Tories next May. The Stranraer by election this week must put this assumption in doubt.
In summary while many of the Tories in the South East are in trouble in areas such as Trafford they may well be on the way to taking seats back from Labour.
I’m permanently in the never underestimate the Tories camp. The pressure is off them now, and the opinion polling - notably those “vote against” data yesterday - shows the British voter starting to show its usual forgiving nature and short memory.
Unless they do something really stupid, it’s well within reach to get back into contention. We are in the perfect environment for Reform to thrive right now: years from a general election, deeply unpopular incumbent, immigration dominating the discourse, and voters not ready yet to go back to the previous government. That environment will get more Tory-friendly with time.
You know, people rave about fast bowling being the key in Australia, but when England have won in the past it's usually (not always) been a combination of excellent batting coupled with the intelligent use of spin bowling.
2011 Swann's offbreaks and Cook/Trott piling up runs 1986 Phil Edmonds and Chris Broad 1979 Miller and Gower.
And this side have no spinners they can rely on and a batting line up that's more fragile than Donald Trump.
The key is to have good opening batters and good opening bowlers.
If you don't then you require an inspirational all rounder.
We do have decent openers - they've been more consistent and high scoring than we've had for years!
I’ve just seen something I need to share with you all, you can thank me later.
Clinton was also a draft dodger.
I think the poster suggests Clinton and Trump didn't just have draft dodging in common. Scurrilous interpretations of the Epstein correspondence, no doubt.
10. George W. Bush 9. Rudy Giuliani 8. Mitt Romney 7. Ted Nugent 6. Bruce Springsteen 5. Newt Gingrich 4. Bill Clinton 3. Muhammad Ali 2. Dick Cheney 1. John Wayne Bonus: Donald Trump Bonus: Joe Biden
Another bonus: Barack Obama, so we have the last five Presidents in the list.
The well-connected always find a way of avoiding things they don’t want to do.
Absolutely astonishing innings by Travis Head, on a pitch that everybody else seemed to struggle on. A great watch.
Hard to watch, and whilst we batted like lemmings, one inspirational innings being the difference does somewhat lessen the sting, since it is not as though the Aussie team as a whole were lightyears ahead.
You know, people rave about fast bowling being the key in Australia, but when England have won in the past it's usually (not always) been a combination of excellent batting coupled with the intelligent use of spin bowling.
2011 Swann's offbreaks and Cook/Trott piling up runs 1986 Phil Edmonds and Chris Broad 1979 Miller and Gower.
And this side have no spinners they can rely on and a batting line up that's more fragile than Donald Trump.
The key is to have good opening batters and good opening bowlers.
If you don't then you require an inspirational all rounder.
Lord Botham is 70 now, probably not as good as he used to be.
He'd still score more runs than Crawley.
That’s true. Quack quack, quack quack.
When was the last time an opener for England got a pair of ducks?
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
And similarly in SW London. The hidden irony behind the LibDems' success in the 'poshest' areas of the UK is that the bedrock of their support in those areas is among the less well off of the residents there. The real story is that the Tories have lost the support of working age voters, and retreated to being a pensioner party, those pensioners tending not to live in towns and cities.
Under Kemi the Tories have also lost voteshare amongst pensioners since the last general election and indeed been overtaken by Reform amongst over 65s but Kemi has slightly increased the Tory voteshare amongst under 30s since the last general election, even if the Tories have lost voteshare amongst all voters over 30
You know, people rave about fast bowling being the key in Australia, but when England have won in the past it's usually (not always) been a combination of excellent batting coupled with the intelligent use of spin bowling.
2011 Swann's offbreaks and Cook/Trott piling up runs 1986 Phil Edmonds and Chris Broad 1979 Miller and Gower.
And this side have no spinners they can rely on and a batting line up that's more fragile than Donald Trump.
The key is to have good opening batters and good opening bowlers.
If you don't then you require an inspirational all rounder.
Lord Botham is 70 now, probably not as good as he used to be.
He'd still score more runs than Crawley.
That’s true. Quack quack, quack quack.
When was the last time an opener for England got a pair of ducks?
Atherton, the wanderers, Joburg, South Africa, 1999
10. George W. Bush 9. Rudy Giuliani 8. Mitt Romney 7. Ted Nugent 6. Bruce Springsteen 5. Newt Gingrich 4. Bill Clinton 3. Muhammad Ali 2. Dick Cheney 1. John Wayne Bonus: Donald Trump Bonus: Joe Biden
Another bonus: Barack Obama, so we have the last five Presidents in the list.
The well-connected always find a way of avoiding things they don’t want to do.
Nothing to avoid. Mr Obama was born in 1961, so would not have been of age in the era of conscription.
10. George W. Bush 9. Rudy Giuliani 8. Mitt Romney 7. Ted Nugent 6. Bruce Springsteen 5. Newt Gingrich 4. Bill Clinton 3. Muhammad Ali 2. Dick Cheney 1. John Wayne Bonus: Donald Trump Bonus: Joe Biden
Another bonus: Barack Obama, so we have the last five Presidents in the list.
The well-connected always find a way of avoiding things they don’t want to do.
So which war would Obama have been liable to be called up for?
10. George W. Bush 9. Rudy Giuliani 8. Mitt Romney 7. Ted Nugent 6. Bruce Springsteen 5. Newt Gingrich 4. Bill Clinton 3. Muhammad Ali 2. Dick Cheney 1. John Wayne Bonus: Donald Trump Bonus: Joe Biden
Another bonus: Barack Obama, so we have the last five Presidents in the list.
The well-connected always find a way of avoiding things they don’t want to do.
The US ceased the draft in 1973, at which time Barack Obama was 12. A little young to be “dodging” conscription.
Very soon this will become moot. Gen X leaders were all born too late for it to be relevant.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
Guildford town centre may not be Cotswolds naice but it is significantly better than average. A castle, water, decent range of independent shops, fewer vape, bookies, charities and vacant lots than the vast majority of similar sized English towns.
There are two pieces of evidence that counter this poll. The first is the recent moreincommon poll that showed the Tories are much less hated than either Labour or Reform. They are slowly losing their toxic brand. This will not win them new voters but will stop them losing voters. The second is the data from byelections. The Tories won 2 council seats yesterday both in the North and in strong Tory areas.
Data shows that voters switch between the right parties and the left parties but rarely between left and right. There has been a switch of about 10% of the electorate from left to right. There is no evidence they are going back. In the same way that the left may tactically vote the right can also tactically vote to get rid of Labour/ SNP / PC or potentially the Lib Dems.
Most of the recent MRP polls have the SNP taking back West Dumfries and Galloway from the Tories next May. The Stranraer by election this week must put this assumption in doubt.
In summary while many of the Tories in the South East are in trouble in areas such as Trafford they may well be on the way to taking seats back from Labour.
Indeed, seats the Tories won in 2019 now held by Labour which voted Leave by less than the national average or even voted Remain are more likely to be gained by the Tories than Reform.
10. George W. Bush 9. Rudy Giuliani 8. Mitt Romney 7. Ted Nugent 6. Bruce Springsteen 5. Newt Gingrich 4. Bill Clinton 3. Muhammad Ali 2. Dick Cheney 1. John Wayne Bonus: Donald Trump Bonus: Joe Biden
Another bonus: Barack Obama, so we have the last five Presidents in the list.
The well-connected always find a way of avoiding things they don’t want to do.
Nothing to avoid. Mr Obama was born in 1961, so would not have been of age in the era of conscription.
Ah yes. So he didn’t serve, but it was voluntary when he turned adult.
10. George W. Bush 9. Rudy Giuliani 8. Mitt Romney 7. Ted Nugent 6. Bruce Springsteen 5. Newt Gingrich 4. Bill Clinton 3. Muhammad Ali 2. Dick Cheney 1. John Wayne Bonus: Donald Trump Bonus: Joe Biden
Another bonus: Barack Obama, so we have the last five Presidents in the list.
The well-connected always find a way of avoiding things they don’t want to do.
So which war would Obama have been liable to be called up for?
Obama was too young for the Vietnam draft (it ended before his birth cohort became eligible). He did register with Selective Service when required in 1981, as all American men his age did. There has been no active draft during his adult life, and he has always been either too young or (for the last ~40 years) far too old to be drafted.
So, no, Barack Obama was never liable to be drafted into the U.S. military.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
Guildford town centre may not be Cotswolds naice but it is significantly better than average. A castle, water, decent range of independent shops, fewer vape, bookies, charities and vacant lots than the vast majority of similar sized English towns.
Also a postwar cathedral - architecturally a decent stab at the job too IIRC.
More pre-war completed post-war. Building started in 1936.
I'd put it in the same 1920-1950 architectural bucket as Bankside Power Station and similar.
Well, as I am sure you will all remember, not least because I wrote about it in some of my headers, there was in fact a report on Russian influence in British politics in ... goodness me .... July 2020.
@Malmesbury will be along soon to tell you how all the lessons and recommendations in that report have been learnt and implemented.
The same Committee also wrote about the influence of other countries such as China - which is just as relevant these days.
When was it released? I thought they'd chosen to sit on the Russian influence report indefinitely. I haven't read the full details of the Gill trial but the sentence is certainly a warning to any would be traitors.
I understand the government is now minded to allow the Chinese Embassy. Whilst my initial thought is surely we wouldn't have allowed the Soviet Union to build it so why allow China to? It must be said if it really is a risk to all the sensitive cables etc in the City, then surely it would destroy the place as a financial centre. So why would we allow it?
If it wasn’t for Gus Atkinson England would have nothing to bowl at here.
As it is, with the pitch easing out it will only take one decent innings from an Aussie batsman and they are home and hosed.
It’s pretty pathetic to be honest.
Do you know what's really annoying?
I was right about this.
I woke up, opened up cricinfo on the phone with a mildly queasy feeling in the stomach about what I’d find there, and yep. There it was. The inevitable.
It's the hope that kills
Yesterday morning - England are shite Lunchtime - Australia had similar problems - it's the pitch Today - nope England are shite
10. George W. Bush 9. Rudy Giuliani 8. Mitt Romney 7. Ted Nugent 6. Bruce Springsteen 5. Newt Gingrich 4. Bill Clinton 3. Muhammad Ali 2. Dick Cheney 1. John Wayne Bonus: Donald Trump Bonus: Joe Biden
Another bonus: Barack Obama, so we have the last five Presidents in the list.
The well-connected always find a way of avoiding things they don’t want to do.
Sneaky Obama being just 11 when the draft ended. Typical of those well connected peeps, getting to age 11.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
Nope had Boris stayed PM he would not have resigned his seat and of course the Tories won the Uxbridge by election anyway so Truss would never have become Tory leader and PN
There would have been a recall petition anyway.
As I said, the Tories won the Uxbridge by election anyway
If it wasn’t for Gus Atkinson England would have nothing to bowl at here.
As it is, with the pitch easing out it will only take one decent innings from an Aussie batsman and they are home and hosed.
It’s pretty pathetic to be honest.
Do you know what's really annoying?
I was right about this.
I woke up, opened up cricinfo on the phone with a mildly queasy feeling in the stomach about what I’d find there, and yep. There it was. The inevitable.
It's the hope that kills
Yesterday morning - England are shite Lunchtime - Australia had similar problems - it's the pitch Today - nope England are shite
When I woke up England were 65 for 1 and I thought: 'we might do this'.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
Guildford town centre may not be Cotswolds naice but it is significantly better than average. A castle, water, decent range of independent shops, fewer vape, bookies, charities and vacant lots than the vast majority of similar sized English towns.
There are two pieces of evidence that counter this poll. The first is the recent moreincommon poll that showed the Tories are much less hated than either Labour or Reform. They are slowly losing their toxic brand. This will not win them new voters but will stop them losing voters. The second is the data from byelections. The Tories won 2 council seats yesterday both in the North and in strong Tory areas.
Data shows that voters switch between the right parties and the left parties but rarely between left and right. There has been a switch of about 10% of the electorate from left to right. There is no evidence they are going back. In the same way that the left may tactically vote the right can also tactically vote to get rid of Labour/ SNP / PC or potentially the Lib Dems.
Most of the recent MRP polls have the SNP taking back West Dumfries and Galloway from the Tories next May. The Stranraer by election this week must put this assumption in doubt.
In summary while many of the Tories in the South East are in trouble in areas such as Trafford they may well be on the way to taking seats back from Labour.
Fair points, except for the lazy assumption that Tory + Reform = Right. That recently released analysis of Reform's support indicates that a good slice of its support isn't "right wing" at all, and while it's true that it's been stolen from Labour, those folks aren't up for switching to the Tories and certainly aren't looking for Thatcherism redux.
Well, as I am sure you will all remember, not least because I wrote about it in some of my headers, there was in fact a report on Russian influence in British politics in ... goodness me .... July 2020.
@Malmesbury will be along soon to tell you how all the lessons and recommendations in that report have been learnt and implemented.
The same Committee also wrote about the influence of other countries such as China - which is just as relevant these days.
When was it released? I thought they'd chosen to sit on the Russian influence report indefinitely. I haven't read the full details of the Gill trial but the sentence is certainly a warning to any would be traitors.
I understand the government is now minded to allow the Chinese Embassy. Whilst my initial thought is surely we wouldn't have allowed the Soviet Union to build it so why allow China to? It must be said if it really is a risk to all the sensitive cables etc in the City, then surely it would destroy the place as a financial centre. So why would we allow it?
Because Starmer is a lawyer, a process man, and they’ve submitted all the required paperwork on time.
Whereas in actuality it’s a blatantly political decision, and should be turned down because, well, one of our significant adversaries China wants to build a massive espionage HQ in the middle of London!
10. George W. Bush 9. Rudy Giuliani 8. Mitt Romney 7. Ted Nugent 6. Bruce Springsteen 5. Newt Gingrich 4. Bill Clinton 3. Muhammad Ali 2. Dick Cheney 1. John Wayne Bonus: Donald Trump Bonus: Joe Biden
Another bonus: Barack Obama, so we have the last five Presidents in the list.
The well-connected always find a way of avoiding things they don’t want to do.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
ROFLMAO
All the 'it would be fine if Boris had not been removed' beliefs seem to be founded on the idea that it was some inexplicable event which had no build up or reasoning to it.
Now, the manner in which he was replaced, with Truss then Sunak in short order, and how they then acted, means I can believe they might not have lost as badly in 2024 had he not been replaced, but the way it is presented it is as though 2019 Boris would have been the one up for re-election, not the Boris who did such a bad job that his own MPs forced him out. Mistake or not they didn't do that willy nilly. And if they had not done it, why on earth would Boris suddenly have gotten a grip when it was his personal failings as a leader which kept causing them problems?
plus its human nature, when deep in a hole, to imagine up fantastical solutions to your predicament - the return of Johnson for the Tories fulfils the same sort of wet dream as Burnham dropping into number ten does for Labour's soft left. Johnson was a disaster as PM - both for the country and his party - and would be so again, if by some miracle he did return, as would the 'bonnie' prince have been, judging from every assessment of his character, had he returned over the water to take either the Scottish or British crown.
10. George W. Bush 9. Rudy Giuliani 8. Mitt Romney 7. Ted Nugent 6. Bruce Springsteen 5. Newt Gingrich 4. Bill Clinton 3. Muhammad Ali 2. Dick Cheney 1. John Wayne Bonus: Donald Trump Bonus: Joe Biden
Another bonus: Barack Obama, so we have the last five Presidents in the list.
The well-connected always find a way of avoiding things they don’t want to do.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
Glasman: Labour will leave the ECHR in the end as judges - "a bunch of arrogant, unaccountable, useless people who protect Albanian drug dealers from getting deported" - won't take the hint from Mahmood"
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
ROFLMAO
All the 'it would be fine if Boris had not been removed' beliefs seem to be founded on the idea that it was some inexplicable event which had no build up or reasoning to it.
Now, the manner in which he was replaced, with Truss then Sunak in short order, and how they then acted, means I can believe they might not have lost as badly in 2024 had he not been replaced, but the way it is presented it is as though 2019 Boris would have been the one up for re-election, not the Boris who did such a bad job that his own MPs forced him out. Mistake or not they didn't do that willy nilly. And if they had not done it, why on earth would Boris suddenly have gotten a grip when it was his personal failings as a leader which kept causing them problems?
plus its human nature, when deep in a hole, to imagine up fantastical solutions to your predicament - the return of Johnson for the Tories fulfils the same sort of wet dream as Burnham dropping into number ten does for Labour's soft left. Johnson was a disaster as PM - both for the country and his party - and would be so again, if by some miracle he did return, as would the 'bonnie' prince have been, judging from every assessment of his character, had he returned over the water to take either the Scottish or British crown.
No-one rushed to the defence of Boris when he was duffed up in the Covid report this week. Unless there is something in the Sunday papers, this week probably marked the end for any hope of returning to power.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
I really cannot see where a sudden Reform fall is coming from, and so the threat of a Tory wipeout seems genuinely real to me.
The big problem for the Tories was really the lack of honeymoon period for Labour. It was too soon for the Tories to benefit from that, they were not yet trusted again, and so anti-government general sentiment goes elsewhere - on top of many people in the Tories' own ranks wanting to have been like Reform (or its predecessors) for years anyway.
Even today the Tory ranks are full of people who want to buddy up with Reform, ones who want to bend over for Reform, but also a fair number who hate Reform.
Maybe people will start to understand that Reform hasn't helped them with living costs which have been made worse by Brexit. Maybe Trump and Trump boosters will become even more unpopular with the electorate. Maybe people will turn against a party that seems to boost the Russian leader and their propaganda (whether for money or for free).
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
Depends what you mean by posh. If it's house prices in Guildford, then yes.
The main difference between Guildford town and the villages will be age. Younger voters in the town.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
Hardly a chasm of a difference. And since when can you judge people by house prices? - as in London, those folks in the South East own expensive properties because they've been on the local rising property ladder for a long time; not because they have massive salaries and bought their £half million house for cash.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
What about age demographics? Younger? I have a close friend who has recently moved to Guildford so I'm interested in the place.
The University of Surrey is there so it has a few students as well but most of them are also reasonably posh even if not Durham, St Andrews and Oxford posh
He needs to row back on the rhetoric after Nathan Gill (whom I don't believe he knew).
Yes he did. They were UKIP MEPs together from 2014 to 2020. But also at other times. Farage on Gill:
Asked about Gill’s admission, Mr Farage said: “Any political party can find in their midst all sorts of terrible people.
“Gill is particularly shocking because I knew him as a devout Christian, very clean-living, honest person. So I’m deeply shocked. But you know, that is a different time.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
Hardly a chasm of a difference. And since when can you judge people by house prices? - as in London, those folks in the South East own expensive properties because they've been on the local rising property ladder for a long time; not because they have massive salaries and bought their £half million house for cash.
Compare house prices in strongly LD areas with house prices in places where the LDs do indifferently. That's the difference. Also the percentage with higher qualifications between those types of seats.
Well, as I am sure you will all remember, not least because I wrote about it in some of my headers, there was in fact a report on Russian influence in British politics in ... goodness me .... July 2020.
@Malmesbury will be along soon to tell you how all the lessons and recommendations in that report have been learnt and implemented.
The same Committee also wrote about the influence of other countries such as China - which is just as relevant these days.
When was it released? I thought they'd chosen to sit on the Russian influence report indefinitely. I haven't read the full details of the Gill trial but the sentence is certainly a warning to any would be traitors.
I understand the government is now minded to allow the Chinese Embassy. Whilst my initial thought is surely we wouldn't have allowed the Soviet Union to build it so why allow China to? It must be said if it really is a risk to all the sensitive cables etc in the City, then surely it would destroy the place as a financial centre. So why would we allow it?
Because Starmer is a lawyer, a process man, and they’ve submitted all the required paperwork on time.
Whereas in actuality it’s a blatantly political decision, and should be turned down because, well, one of our significant adversaries China wants to build a massive espionage HQ in the middle of London!
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
Guildford town centre may not be Cotswolds naice but it is significantly better than average. A castle, water, decent range of independent shops, fewer vape, bookies, charities and vacant lots than the vast majority of similar sized English towns.
It is, but I'm sorry that analysis is not correct. You are just looking at the High St. Nobody lives there. They live around it. Park Barn is a huge ex council estate. Most of the other houses in the town are old small terraces. Once you move out further you get to housing estates of flats, semis, and small detached houses. There are only a handful of big houses in Guildford itself and many of those are multiple occupancy flats eh York Rd. Outside of Guildford you get the posh villages. We expect to win the town. Victory is achieved my squeezing the villages. Not to winning them but minimising the loss.
Woking is even more so. People have an odd view of Surrey. Sheerwater in Woking or Old Dean in Camberley are not just not posh they are very unposh.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
Hardly a chasm of a difference. And since when can you judge people by house prices? - as in London, those folks in the South East own expensive properties because they've been on the local rising property ladder for a long time; not because they have massive salaries and bought their £half million house for cash.
A pretty big 12% difference and that is in the supposedly least posh of the 3 Surrey towns mentioned.
If it wasn’t for Gus Atkinson England would have nothing to bowl at here.
As it is, with the pitch easing out it will only take one decent innings from an Aussie batsman and they are home and hosed.
It’s pretty pathetic to be honest.
Do you know what's really annoying?
I was right about this.
I woke up, opened up cricinfo on the phone with a mildly queasy feeling in the stomach about what I’d find there, and yep. There it was. The inevitable.
It's the hope that kills
Yesterday morning - England are shite Lunchtime - Australia had similar problems - it's the pitch Today - nope England are shite
Well, as I am sure you will all remember, not least because I wrote about it in some of my headers, there was in fact a report on Russian influence in British politics in ... goodness me .... July 2020.
@Malmesbury will be along soon to tell you how all the lessons and recommendations in that report have been learnt and implemented.
The same Committee also wrote about the influence of other countries such as China - which is just as relevant these days.
When was it released? I thought they'd chosen to sit on the Russian influence report indefinitely. I haven't read the full details of the Gill trial but the sentence is certainly a warning to any would be traitors.
I understand the government is now minded to allow the Chinese Embassy. Whilst my initial thought is surely we wouldn't have allowed the Soviet Union to build it so why allow China to? It must be said if it really is a risk to all the sensitive cables etc in the City, then surely it would destroy the place as a financial centre. So why would we allow it?
Because Starmer is a lawyer, a process man, and they’ve submitted all the required paperwork on time.
Whereas in actuality it’s a blatantly political decision, and should be turned down because, well, one of our significant adversaries China wants to build a massive espionage HQ in the middle of London!
The Conservatives and others should hammer Labour if they allow that. Recent (aborted) court action and warnings about the risk China poses make this pretty obvious.
Comments
Lol. Another stand up comedy candidate...
That leaves the Conservatives as the only party left that has historically taken defence seriously. This could push them up the poll rankings if the Ukraine war situation becomes critical.
Of course it's budget week, but also he won't stand up to Trump and despite saying he would, he hasn't spoken to Trump about the BBC
https://x.com/yas_wisden/status/1992151198028181661?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
He needs to row back on the rhetoric after Nathan Gill (whom I don't believe he knew).
I don't believe Starmer's Trump adjacency is much of a weapon for either Farage or the current iteration of the Tories.
It was always a question of "when" not "if" something calamitous bright him down.
2011 Swann's offbreaks and Cook/Trott piling up runs
1986 Phil Edmonds and Chris Broad
1979 Miller and Gower.
And this side have no spinners they can rely on and a batting line up that's more fragile than Donald Trump.
I was right about this.
I think Bush Sr was the last POTUS who did actual active military service.
Callaghan is the last military veteran to be UK PM.
https://macspaunday.substack.com/p/he-got-this-from-k
[Witkoff] accidentally tweeted under Ravid’s story what looked to be an intended direct message to a third party: “He must have got this from K.”
I saw the tweet and screenshot it before Witkoff, realizing his technical whoops, deleted it. “K,” I assumed, referred to Kirill, the only on-the-record source for Ravid’s story — an unintended disclosure by Witkoff, another frequent source for Ravid’s stories, that the Russian was preemptively selling something he didn’t yet own, having worked out how American media is a helpmeet to politics.
NBC News and the Wall Street Journal both noted that while Witkoff may have been driving the car, he had co-passengers. The plan, now described as a “blueprint” for ending the war, “was worked out” by Rubio, Witkoff and Jared Kushner. What struck me as odd about this whole affair was that for such a multi-authored, monthlong project, no one from the American side was willing to go on the record to talk about it.
Moscow’s stony posture suggests it knew Dmitriev had cooked up something too good to be true or taken seriously, both of which are true.
With some detailed commentary on the detail of the 'proposals'
Its only his political career as PM that is a failure.
https://www.historyandheadlines.com/10-patriots-who-dodged-the-draft-or-did-not-serve/
Read the article for details but their list is:-
10. George W. Bush
9. Rudy Giuliani
8. Mitt Romney
7. Ted Nugent
6. Bruce Springsteen
5. Newt Gingrich
4. Bill Clinton
3. Muhammad Ali
2. Dick Cheney
1. John Wayne
Bonus: Donald Trump
Bonus: Joe Biden
Tweet one says Starmer had a horrible childhood (true) and that's why he's fallen for all this rule-of-law nonsense (untrue and nasty).
Tweet two says Starmer wants to reintroduce effective government (which rather implies that we didn't have it before) and the only way to do that is to reduce human rights legislation (which seems pretty contestable to me).
Tells us more about Glasman than Starmer, I reckon.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/church-welcomes-back-rwandan-bishop-accused-of-defending-genocide
Feels like the Anglican church is leaning in to third-worldism. Their choice but I'm not sure why we want to keep them 'official' if that's the case.
If you don't then you require an inspirational all rounder.
There are two pieces of evidence that counter this poll. The first is the recent moreincommon poll that showed the Tories are much less hated than either Labour or Reform. They are slowly losing their toxic brand. This will not win them new voters but will stop them losing voters. The second is the data from byelections. The Tories won 2 council seats yesterday both in the North and in strong Tory areas.
Data shows that voters switch between the right parties and the left parties but rarely between left and right. There has been a switch of about 10% of the electorate from left to right. There is no evidence they are going back. In the same way that the left may tactically vote the right can also tactically vote to get rid of Labour/ SNP / PC or potentially the Lib Dems.
Most of the recent MRP polls have the SNP taking back West Dumfries and Galloway from the Tories next May. The Stranraer by election this week must put this assumption in doubt.
In summary while many of the Tories in the South East are in trouble in areas such as Trafford they may well be on the way to taking seats back from Labour.
You can read the report here - https://isc.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/CCS207_CCS0221966010-001_Russia-Report-v02-Web_Accessible.pdf.
@Malmesbury will be along soon to tell you how all the lessons and recommendations in that report have been learnt and implemented.
The same Committee also wrote about the influence of other countries such as China - which is just as relevant these days.
Now, the manner in which he was replaced, with Truss then Sunak in short order, and how they then acted, means I can believe they might not have lost as badly in 2024 had he not been replaced, but the way it is presented it is as though 2019 Boris would have been the one up for re-election, not the Boris who did such a bad job that his own MPs forced him out. Mistake or not they didn't do that willy nilly. And if they had not done it, why on earth would Boris suddenly have gotten a grip when it was his personal failings as a leader which kept causing them problems?
That article is also nearly 10 years old. It also has sod all to do with having an automatic right to be married or buried or your child baptised in your local C of E Parish church which would of course be removed if the C of E was disestablished which would be the only real impact most people would notice from it no longer being established.
The big problem for the Tories was really the lack of honeymoon period for Labour. It was too soon for the Tories to benefit from that, they were not yet trusted again, and so anti-government general sentiment goes elsewhere - on top of many people in the Tories' own ranks wanting to have been like Reform (or its predecessors) for years anyway.
Even today the Tory ranks are full of people who want to buddy up with Reform, ones who want to bend over for Reform, but also a fair number who hate Reform.
Unless they do something really stupid, it’s well within reach to get back into contention. We are in the perfect environment for Reform to thrive right now: years from a general election, deeply unpopular incumbent, immigration dominating the discourse, and voters not ready yet to go back to the previous government. That environment will get more Tory-friendly with time.
The well-connected always find a way of avoiding things they don’t want to do.
When was the last time an opener for England got a pair of ducks?
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49978-how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-general-election
Under Kemi the Tories have also lost voteshare amongst pensioners since the last general election and indeed been overtaken by Reform amongst over 65s but Kemi has slightly increased the Tory voteshare amongst under 30s since the last general election, even if the Tories have lost voteshare amongst all voters over 30
Last one in Aus was also Atherton in 1998.
https://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?batting_positionmax1=2;batting_positionmin1=1;batting_positionval1=batting_position;class=1;filter=advanced;orderby=start;orderbyad=reverse;qualmax1=0;qualmax2=2;qualmin1=0;qualmin2=2;qualval1=runs;qualval2=innings;team=1;template=results;type=batting;view=match
Very soon this will become moot. Gen X leaders were all born too late for it to be relevant.
He did register with Selective Service when required in 1981, as all American men his age did.
There has been no active draft during his adult life, and he has always been either too young or (for the last ~40 years) far too old to be drafted.
So, no, Barack Obama was never liable to be drafted into the U.S. military.
I'd put it in the same 1920-1950 architectural bucket as Bankside Power Station and similar.
I understand the government is now minded to allow the Chinese Embassy. Whilst my initial thought is surely we wouldn't have allowed the Soviet Union to build it so why allow China to? It must be said if it really is a risk to all the sensitive cables etc in the City, then surely it would destroy the place as a financial centre. So why would we allow it?
Yesterday morning - England are shite
Lunchtime - Australia had similar problems - it's the pitch
Today - nope England are shite
I should have stayed asleep until 10
Whereas in actuality it’s a blatantly political decision, and should be turned down because, well, one of our significant adversaries China wants to build a massive espionage HQ in the middle of London!
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/shabana-mahmood-labour-mps-immigration-65pkftk7f
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/guildford.html
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/woking.html
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/camberley.html
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/
In Guildford constituency 67% of voters have a degree or at least A levels or Level 3 qualifications compared to only 51% of all UK voters
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Guildford
@harrytlambert
Glasman: Labour will leave the ECHR in the end as judges - "a bunch of arrogant, unaccountable, useless people who protect Albanian drug dealers from getting deported" - won't take the hint from Mahmood"
https://x.com/harrytlambert/status/1991827558183178710
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Woking
Maybe Trump and Trump boosters will become even more unpopular with the electorate.
Maybe people will turn against a party that seems to boost the Russian leader and their propaganda (whether for money or for free).
Shows just how useless Yvette was in the role.
The main difference between Guildford town and the villages will be age. Younger voters in the town.
Asked about Gill’s admission, Mr Farage said: “Any political party can find in their midst all sorts of terrible people.
“Gill is particularly shocking because I knew him as a devout Christian, very clean-living, honest person. So I’m deeply shocked. But you know, that is a different time.
“I’m the only one [in Reform] that really knew him, going back a long way.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-nathan-gill-russian-bribes-reform-wales-b2843272.html
Woking is even more so. People have an odd view of Surrey. Sheerwater in Woking or Old Dean in Camberley are not just not posh they are very unposh.
As I also pointed out all 3 Surrey towns have more graduates and those with A levels than the UK average too and Woking and Guildford have an average household income of £58k compared to just £42k GB wide.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Woking
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Guildford
All time England highest win %s
1. M Brearley 58.06%
2. B Stokes 57.89%