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Some good news for Badenoch but will it move the polls? – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,842
    Nigelb said:

    To cheer up your Friday morning.
    Sound on is recommended, and the best bit is at the end.

    This is the (restored) VHS footage of @HecklerAndKoch Factory testing of the G36 all the way to destruction.

    Note that they used 100 Round "double-drum" mags only.

    https://x.com/chrisschmitz/status/1976410371264291073

    What am I missing at the end?
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,419
    MattW said:

    Dopermean said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning PB.

    Important news: The Gentrification of Penge:

    An influx of independent coffee shops, cycle clubs and art galleries has changed the face of Penge for good.

    Long-time residents were stunned at the start of the year when it was voted one of the top 11 coolest postcodes in Britain.
    ...
    Nothing screams the new Penge more than a series of street artwork next to a McDonald's in the town centre.
    ...
    'It's not posh, never has been posh, so why try and make it posh?

    'They're trying to make it look like Brixton - and that is not a good thing.

    http://bit.ly/42BZxua (incoming Daily Mail)

    Is that a typo? Incoming Daily Mash?
    Penge is one of the places (like Neasdon and East Sheen) that is forever a 1970s sitcom.
    Cheam, surely ?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,922
    MattW said:

    Dopermean said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning PB.

    Important news: The Gentrification of Penge:

    An influx of independent coffee shops, cycle clubs and art galleries has changed the face of Penge for good.

    Long-time residents were stunned at the start of the year when it was voted one of the top 11 coolest postcodes in Britain.
    ...
    Nothing screams the new Penge more than a series of street artwork next to a McDonald's in the town centre.
    ...
    'It's not posh, never has been posh, so why try and make it posh?

    'They're trying to make it look like Brixton - and that is not a good thing.

    http://bit.ly/42BZxua (incoming Daily Mail)

    Is that a typo? Incoming Daily Mash?
    Penge is one of the places (like Neasdon and East Sheen) that is forever a 1970s sitcom.
    Also "freedom for Tooting"
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,283
    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Nobel decision would have been made before yesterday, so it’s unlikey to be Trump as he failed miserably to get Russia out of Ukraine, a job he thought would be easy but proved not to be.

    He does deserve some credit for the ceasefire in Israel and Gaza, if it holds, so he has a year to smack Putin’s arse with Tomahawks if he wants that prize.

    The committee decided on Monday, which is of course before the news re the ME.
    Betfair has Corina Machado, seemingly a late addition, as odds-on favourite. One suspects a leak.
  • boulay said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning PB.

    Important news: The Gentrification of Penge:

    An influx of independent coffee shops, cycle clubs and art galleries has changed the face of Penge for good.

    Long-time residents were stunned at the start of the year when it was voted one of the top 11 coolest postcodes in Britain.
    ...
    Nothing screams the new Penge more than a series of street artwork next to a McDonald's in the town centre.
    ...
    'It's not posh, never has been posh, so why try and make it posh?

    'They're trying to make it look like Brixton - and that is not a good thing.

    http://bit.ly/42BZxua (incoming Daily Mail)

    Lots going on here.
    1) "Penge" is one of the most cherishably ridiculous names for a suburb in the country. Very London. If the opening section to "Sheffield: Sex City" were transposed to London, Penge would definitely feature.
    2) "They" - there seems to be a pervasive inference among the complaining classes that "They" are a lot more coordinated and powerful than is actually the case. Who are "they"? I normally infer the local council. Having worked with councils, I am amused by the idea of them as shadowy and powerful cabals.
    3) London is the only place in the country where people seem to resent the idea of their suburb improving in any way. "Gentrification" is a pejorative term in London in a way that it really isn't in the rest of the country.
    4) Having grown up in the 80s, the idea that anywhere might aspire to be Brixton is interestingly jarring.
    Penge does sound like a particularly unpleasant itchy and smelly skin complaint caught from close contact with sheep.
    Sounds like a companion word to minge.
    Penge is derived from Common Brittonic for 'end of the woodland' (similar to Pencoed in Wales)
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,853
    edited October 10
    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,842

    MattW said:

    Dopermean said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning PB.

    Important news: The Gentrification of Penge:

    An influx of independent coffee shops, cycle clubs and art galleries has changed the face of Penge for good.

    Long-time residents were stunned at the start of the year when it was voted one of the top 11 coolest postcodes in Britain.
    ...
    Nothing screams the new Penge more than a series of street artwork next to a McDonald's in the town centre.
    ...
    'It's not posh, never has been posh, so why try and make it posh?

    'They're trying to make it look like Brixton - and that is not a good thing.

    http://bit.ly/42BZxua (incoming Daily Mail)

    Is that a typo? Incoming Daily Mash?
    Penge is one of the places (like Neasdon and East Sheen) that is forever a 1970s sitcom.
    Also "freedom for Tooting"
    And Brentford, forever famous for its allotment golf thanks to the twelve books in the Robert Rankin 'Brentford Triangle' trilogy, which also included a title 'East of Ealing'.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,420

    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Nobel decision would have been made before yesterday, so it’s unlikey to be Trump as he failed miserably to get Russia out of Ukraine, a job he thought would be easy but proved not to be.

    He does deserve some credit for the ceasefire in Israel and Gaza, if it holds, so he has a year to smack Putin’s arse with Tomahawks if he wants that prize.

    The committee decided on Monday, which is of course before the news re the ME.
    Betfair has Corina Machado, seemingly a late addition, as odds-on favourite. One suspects a leak.
    Polymarket the same. She was nowhere until about eight hours ago.

    https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,902
    This honestly feels like Trump's "Mission accomplished" banner moment. I hope that the peace is lasting but Hamas aren't to be trusted at all. Without an Arab led peacekeeping force I don't see how they don't just revert to type once the IDF vacates Gaza.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,420
    edited October 10
    And it does indeed go to Corina Machado, opposition leader in Venezuela.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,851

    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Nobel decision would have been made before yesterday, so it’s unlikey to be Trump as he failed miserably to get Russia out of Ukraine, a job he thought would be easy but proved not to be.

    He does deserve some credit for the ceasefire in Israel and Gaza, if it holds, so he has a year to smack Putin’s arse with Tomahawks if he wants that prize.

    The committee decided on Monday, which is of course before the news re the ME.
    Betfair has Corina Machado, seemingly a late addition, as odds-on favourite. One suspects a leak.
    And Betfair was right.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,263
    Nigelb said:

    To cheer up your Friday morning.
    Sound on is recommended, and the best bit is at the end.

    This is the (restored) VHS footage of @HecklerAndKoch Factory testing of the G36 all the way to destruction.

    Note that they used 100 Round "double-drum" mags only.

    https://x.com/chrisschmitz/status/1976410371264291073

    That's a good impression of what the Las Vegas shooter did in 2017.

    He fired 1050+ rounds in 10 minutes, using 80-100 round magazines on a semi-automatic rifle, and bump-stops. When he was doing his bursts it was 80 rounds in 10 seconds or so.

    (Compilation phone video with shots in background)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6fE2JkvVoo
  • glwglw Posts: 10,548
    Trump's going to be mad as hell when he wakes up.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,420
    MaxPB said:

    This honestly feels like Trump's "Mission accomplished" banner moment. I hope that the peace is lasting but Hamas aren't to be trusted at all. Without an Arab led peacekeeping force I don't see how they don't just revert to type once the IDF vacates Gaza.

    Middle East reporting does give the impression that the whole region really does want to see an end to it. I think the plan is for a lot of countries to be involved in the rebuilding, so everyone has a stake in success.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,263
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Dopermean said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning PB.

    Important news: The Gentrification of Penge:

    An influx of independent coffee shops, cycle clubs and art galleries has changed the face of Penge for good.

    Long-time residents were stunned at the start of the year when it was voted one of the top 11 coolest postcodes in Britain.
    ...
    Nothing screams the new Penge more than a series of street artwork next to a McDonald's in the town centre.
    ...
    'It's not posh, never has been posh, so why try and make it posh?

    'They're trying to make it look like Brixton - and that is not a good thing.

    http://bit.ly/42BZxua (incoming Daily Mail)

    Is that a typo? Incoming Daily Mash?
    Penge is one of the places (like Neasdon and East Sheen) that is forever a 1970s sitcom.
    The only sitcom actually set there is the noughties Pulling.
    But sitcoms are supposed to be fictional !

    That's where the Big Brother House should have been.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,166
    MaxPB said:

    This honestly feels like Trump's "Mission accomplished" banner moment. I hope that the peace is lasting but Hamas aren't to be trusted at all. Without an Arab led peacekeeping force I don't see how they don't just revert to type once the IDF vacates Gaza.

    + 20,000 radicalised young men who have seen their parents killed over the last few years (estimates vary). Fertile ground for Hamas and we'll be back where we started inside a decade.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,853
    edited October 10
    Rogan is also beginning to turn on Trump.

    https://x.com/OfTheBraveUSA/status/1976367385792872854

    Something seems to be shifting on the American alt-right.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,035

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    9h
    Aughton & Holborn (West Lancashire) Council By-Election Result:

    OWL: 35.5% (+10.4)
    RFM: 24.1% (+18.6)
    LAB: 19.4% (-21.3)
    CON: 14.9% (-8.7)
    GRN: 3.9% (-1.1)
    LDM: 2.1%

    EICIPM
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,420
    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,035
    glw said:

    Trump's going to be mad as hell when he wakes up.

    Why what's happened?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,851
    glw said:

    Trump's going to be mad as hell when he wakes up.

    I don't know; he's opposed to the current Venezuelan government. I suspect that on mature reflection he'll be somewhat torn, although I realise that DJT doesn't do mature reflection.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,291

    eek said:

    45 minutes to the Nobel Peace Prize announcement. This week's Gaza peace deal will surely have come too late!

    So 50 minutes until Trump declares war on Sweden due to the slight of not winning it
    Knowing Trump, he'll probably declare war on Denmark due to the slight of not winning it.
    It's actually Norway's prize. Nobel gave it to Norway to make the point that there were no hard feelings towards Norway.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,035

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.

    I'm Backing Zack.

    Labour for entirely factional reasons has removed all similar Politicians, more fool them.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,484
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
    Yeah, you know how it goes.

    So if Tucker supports Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?

    etc.
  • glw said:

    Trump's going to be mad as hell when he wakes up.

    Why what's happened?
    Carlson and Rogan, usuallu cheerleaders of the alt-righr, are turning on him.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,484

    glw said:

    Trump's going to be mad as hell when he wakes up.

    I don't know; he's opposed to the current Venezuelan government. I suspect that on mature reflection he'll be somewhat torn, although I realise that DJT doesn't do mature reflection.
    Or even immature reflection.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,420

    glw said:

    Trump's going to be mad as hell when he wakes up.

    I don't know; he's opposed to the current Venezuelan government. I suspect that on mature reflection he'll be somewhat torn, although I realise that DJT doesn't do mature reflection.
    He should be happy it’s gone to someone he admires, and reaslise he has a year to make this week’s ceasefire stick and sort out Putin.

    But he’s Donald Trump, and he doesn’t think like that!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,236

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    9h
    Aughton & Holborn (West Lancashire) Council By-Election Result:

    OWL: 35.5% (+10.4)
    RFM: 24.1% (+18.6)
    LAB: 19.4% (-21.3)
    CON: 14.9% (-8.7)
    GRN: 3.9% (-1.1)
    LDM: 2.1%

    EICIPM

    Reform will probably win, whether as largest party or a majority I'm not sure - but the next election is shaping up to be all about the collapse of the Labour vote.
  • glw said:

    Trump's going to be mad as hell when he wakes up.

    Why what's happened?
    Carlson and Rogan, usuallu cheerleaders of the alt-righr, are turning on him.
    Nobel Peace prize gone elsewhere, to someone democracy, not trashing it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,035
    Pulpstar said:

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    9h
    Aughton & Holborn (West Lancashire) Council By-Election Result:

    OWL: 35.5% (+10.4)
    RFM: 24.1% (+18.6)
    LAB: 19.4% (-21.3)
    CON: 14.9% (-8.7)
    GRN: 3.9% (-1.1)
    LDM: 2.1%

    EICIPM

    Reform will probably win, whether as largest party or a majority I'm not sure - but the next election is shaping up to be all about the collapse of the Labour vote.
    Agreed
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,498

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.

    My impression is that Reform and Greens don't come into contact much on the ground. The areas where the Greens are strongest are where Reform is weakest, and vice versa.

    The effect the Greens could have is to obliterate the remaining Labour strongholds, particularly in London. When we see the seat projections they give Reform a landslide majority the remaining Labour seats are in London, and other urban areas. If the Greens make inroads there, then potentially you're looking at a wipeout scenario for Labour.

    Possibly voters like @Leon might decide to vote Green tactically to unseat their local Labour MP. It's the sort of scenario that might see the Tories win more seats than Labour (with the Tories being fifth and Labour sixth).
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,239
    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    45 minutes to the Nobel Peace Prize announcement. This week's Gaza peace deal will surely have come too late!

    So 50 minutes until Trump declares war on Sweden due to the slight of not winning it
    Knowing Trump, he'll probably declare war on Denmark due to the slight of not winning it.
    It's actually Norway's prize. Nobel gave it to Norway to make the point that there were no hard feelings towards Norway.
    Yeah, but he will still probably declare war on Denmark, he is that daft.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,243

    Good, you cannot have any Tom, Dick, or Mary being able to walk in.

    JPMorgan requiring biometric data for staff access to new headquarters

    New York bank is imposing eye and fingerprint scans amid heightened security concerns at corporate offices


    JPMorgan Chase has told staff moving into the US bank’s new multibillion-dollar Manhattan headquarters they must share their biometric data to access the building, overriding a prior plan for voluntary enrolment.

    Employees who have started work at its 270 Park Avenue skyscraper since August have received emails saying biometric access is “required”, according to a communication seen by the Financial Times. This allows people to scan their fingerprints or eye instead of ID badges to get through the lobby security gates.

    JPMorgan declined to comment. The bank’s headquarters, which cost a reported $3bn, will eventually house about 10,000 employees once it is fully open later this year.

    The goal is to make access to the building more secure and convenient. There are exemptions for some employees who can still use their badge to enter the building, though it was not clear who would receive them.

    It comes amid heightened security concerns across corporate offices in New York following a deadly shooting at 345 Park Avenue in July, a few blocks up the street from JPMorgan’s offices.


    https://www.ft.com/content/d5351d3d-d64f-4a90-a3da-d1ef8e8bea66

    Rejoice the end of the lanyard.....
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,498
    MaxPB said:

    This honestly feels like Trump's "Mission accomplished" banner moment. I hope that the peace is lasting but Hamas aren't to be trusted at all. Without an Arab led peacekeeping force I don't see how they don't just revert to type once the IDF vacates Gaza.

    Turkey are being identified as the leaders of a stabilisation force, though it doesn't sound like there's a firm plan yet.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,853
    edited October 10
    Pulpstar said:

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    9h
    Aughton & Holborn (West Lancashire) Council By-Election Result:

    OWL: 35.5% (+10.4)
    RFM: 24.1% (+18.6)
    LAB: 19.4% (-21.3)
    CON: 14.9% (-8.7)
    GRN: 3.9% (-1.1)
    LDM: 2.1%

    EICIPM

    Reform will probably win, whether as largest party or a majority I'm not sure - but the next election is shaping up to be all about the collapse of the Labour vote.
    Yes, Greens on 17% in the last Youguv. And a new leader can sometimes accelerate a process ; catching that tide in the affairs of men, as Shajespeare would have said.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,035
    Cicero said:

    kjh said:

    Good, you cannot have any Tom, Dick, or Mary being able to walk in.

    JPMorgan requiring biometric data for staff access to new headquarters

    New York bank is imposing eye and fingerprint scans amid heightened security concerns at corporate offices


    JPMorgan Chase has told staff moving into the US bank’s new multibillion-dollar Manhattan headquarters they must share their biometric data to access the building, overriding a prior plan for voluntary enrolment.

    Employees who have started work at its 270 Park Avenue skyscraper since August have received emails saying biometric access is “required”, according to a communication seen by the Financial Times. This allows people to scan their fingerprints or eye instead of ID badges to get through the lobby security gates.

    JPMorgan declined to comment. The bank’s headquarters, which cost a reported $3bn, will eventually house about 10,000 employees once it is fully open later this year.

    The goal is to make access to the building more secure and convenient. There are exemptions for some employees who can still use their badge to enter the building, though it was not clear who would receive them.

    It comes amid heightened security concerns across corporate offices in New York following a deadly shooting at 345 Park Avenue in July, a few blocks up the street from JPMorgan’s offices.


    https://www.ft.com/content/d5351d3d-d64f-4a90-a3da-d1ef8e8bea66

    Does that mean you can't get a job at JPMorgan if your name is Tom, Dick or Mary?
    When I worked at Morgan there were quite a few Dicks.
    When i worked in the NHS only 34% of employees had Dicks
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,035
    Off to see I swear at Cineworld this morning

    SPUNK FOR MILK!!
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,166
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
    If he's losing the conspiracy nutters who else does he have? The Epstein stuff has holed him and I've also got videos of that Theo Von guy getting upset by ICE.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,498
    edited October 10
    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    Given Tucker Carlson's admiration for Putin and Russia why would he complain about the Russification of the US?

    It's dizzying keeping up with the speed of political change in the US.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,166
    Pulpstar said:

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    9h
    Aughton & Holborn (West Lancashire) Council By-Election Result:

    OWL: 35.5% (+10.4)
    RFM: 24.1% (+18.6)
    LAB: 19.4% (-21.3)
    CON: 14.9% (-8.7)
    GRN: 3.9% (-1.1)
    LDM: 2.1%

    EICIPM

    Reform will probably win, whether as largest party or a majority I'm not sure - but the next election is shaping up to be all about the collapse of the Labour vote.
    Which is mad because the bigger story is the obliteration of the main party of government over the last two centuries. We've already got used to the idea of Conservative extinction.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,851

    MaxPB said:

    This honestly feels like Trump's "Mission accomplished" banner moment. I hope that the peace is lasting but Hamas aren't to be trusted at all. Without an Arab led peacekeeping force I don't see how they don't just revert to type once the IDF vacates Gaza.

    Turkey are being identified as the leaders of a stabilisation force, though it doesn't sound like there's a firm plan yet.
    Actually, that sounds like a plan; Muslims, but not Arabs.

    And I agree with whoever it was who said that without very careful handling we're going to see the next generation of older teenagers in Gaza taking up rifles and petrol bombs.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    9h
    Aughton & Holborn (West Lancashire) Council By-Election Result:

    OWL: 35.5% (+10.4)
    RFM: 24.1% (+18.6)
    LAB: 19.4% (-21.3)
    CON: 14.9% (-8.7)
    GRN: 3.9% (-1.1)
    LDM: 2.1%

    EICIPM

    Reform will probably win, whether as largest party or a majority I'm not sure - but the next election is shaping up to be all about the collapse of the Labour vote.
    Yes, Greens on 17% in the last Youguv. And a new leader can sometimes accelerate a process ; catching that tide in the affairs of men, as Shajespeare would have said.
    Point of order

    Greens at 12% not 17%

    5–6 Oct YouGov The Times/Sky News GB 2,333 20% 17% 27% 17% 12% 4% 1% 3%
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,481
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
    If he's losing the conspiracy nutters who else does he have? The Epstein stuff has holed him and I've also got videos of that Theo Von guy getting upset by ICE.
    It’s only a matter of time before ICE do a house with a bonafide MAGA, ex-military, gun nut in residence.

    Think Ruby Ridge. Squared.

    Ironic that it’s the nut case right who have made the Black Helicopters full of Feds in Black come true. Complete with the secret holding camps where you are detained without trial.
  • Eabhal said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    9h
    Aughton & Holborn (West Lancashire) Council By-Election Result:

    OWL: 35.5% (+10.4)
    RFM: 24.1% (+18.6)
    LAB: 19.4% (-21.3)
    CON: 14.9% (-8.7)
    GRN: 3.9% (-1.1)
    LDM: 2.1%

    EICIPM

    Reform will probably win, whether as largest party or a majority I'm not sure - but the next election is shaping up to be all about the collapse of the Labour vote.
    Which is mad because the bigger story is the obliteration of the main party of government over the last two centuries. We've already got used to the idea of Conservative extinction.
    What is a real worry is that the two extreme left and right parties, with incoherent policies, could be anywhere near government
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,957
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
    Did you not understand "even an idiot" ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,420
    edited October 10
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
    If he's losing the conspiracy nutters who else does he have? The Epstein stuff has holed him and I've also got videos of that Theo Von guy getting upset by ICE.
    You’re right on the Epstein stuff, that’s gone down really badly with the base, they were told they’d be seeing the Epstein files and they haven’t turned up. The base are pretty pissed with Pam Bondi for her comments on “hate speech” as well.

    The likes of Joe Rogan and Theo Von are both pretty centrist comics, despite them both voting for Trump last time out. They’ve both made negative comments on execution of immigration raids, while being supportive of the concept. They’re a pretty good barometer for the general feeling in the country I think.

    As for Tucker, everything he says needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt. Like so many journalists now working for himself and paid to have an opinion, he doesn’t make factual stuff up but often leaves out a lot of context, and also knows that the wildest opinions drive social media “engagement”.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,853
    edited October 10

    Pulpstar said:

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    9h
    Aughton & Holborn (West Lancashire) Council By-Election Result:

    OWL: 35.5% (+10.4)
    RFM: 24.1% (+18.6)
    LAB: 19.4% (-21.3)
    CON: 14.9% (-8.7)
    GRN: 3.9% (-1.1)
    LDM: 2.1%

    EICIPM

    Reform will probably win, whether as largest party or a majority I'm not sure - but the next election is shaping up to be all about the collapse of the Labour vote.
    Yes, Greens on 17% in the last Youguv. And a new leader can sometimes accelerate a process ; catching that tide in the affairs of men, as Shajespeare would have said.
    Point of order

    Greens at 12% not 17%

    5–6 Oct YouGov The Times/Sky News GB 2,333 20% 17% 27% 17% 12% 4% 1% 3%
    Sorry, yes. I was mixing up the Lib Dem performance with the Green one on that last Yougov.

    I also think it"s quite possible that the Lib Dems enter into some sort of pact with the Greens, to counter a putative Tory-Reform one, moderating them. Labour look to be the most challenged.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,851

    Eabhal said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    9h
    Aughton & Holborn (West Lancashire) Council By-Election Result:

    OWL: 35.5% (+10.4)
    RFM: 24.1% (+18.6)
    LAB: 19.4% (-21.3)
    CON: 14.9% (-8.7)
    GRN: 3.9% (-1.1)
    LDM: 2.1%

    EICIPM

    Reform will probably win, whether as largest party or a majority I'm not sure - but the next election is shaping up to be all about the collapse of the Labour vote.
    Which is mad because the bigger story is the obliteration of the main party of government over the last two centuries. We've already got used to the idea of Conservative extinction.
    What is a real worry is that the two extreme left and right parties, with incoherent policies, could be anywhere near government
    Are not Kent's Reform-run County Council going to increase the rates next year?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,166

    Eabhal said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    9h
    Aughton & Holborn (West Lancashire) Council By-Election Result:

    OWL: 35.5% (+10.4)
    RFM: 24.1% (+18.6)
    LAB: 19.4% (-21.3)
    CON: 14.9% (-8.7)
    GRN: 3.9% (-1.1)
    LDM: 2.1%

    EICIPM

    Reform will probably win, whether as largest party or a majority I'm not sure - but the next election is shaping up to be all about the collapse of the Labour vote.
    Which is mad because the bigger story is the obliteration of the main party of government over the last two centuries. We've already got used to the idea of Conservative extinction.
    What is a real worry is that the two extreme left and right parties, with incoherent policies, could be anywhere near government
    This is what Neil Kinnock was saying. A vaguely moderate Labour party is only viable if opposed by the equivalent on that right. I suppose that's what's happened to the Democrats in the US too.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,527
    Reports coming in, US bombing of Oslo has already begun.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,263
    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    45 minutes to the Nobel Peace Prize announcement. This week's Gaza peace deal will surely have come too late!

    So 50 minutes until Trump declares war on Sweden due to the slight of not winning it
    Knowing Trump, he'll probably declare war on Denmark due to the slight of not winning it.
    It's actually Norway's prize. Nobel gave it to Norway to make the point that there were no hard feelings towards Norway.
    That's probably why he will declare war on Denmark and Sweden :smile: .

    Same thing, innit?
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,419

    Eabhal said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    9h
    Aughton & Holborn (West Lancashire) Council By-Election Result:

    OWL: 35.5% (+10.4)
    RFM: 24.1% (+18.6)
    LAB: 19.4% (-21.3)
    CON: 14.9% (-8.7)
    GRN: 3.9% (-1.1)
    LDM: 2.1%

    EICIPM

    Reform will probably win, whether as largest party or a majority I'm not sure - but the next election is shaping up to be all about the collapse of the Labour vote.
    Which is mad because the bigger story is the obliteration of the main party of government over the last two centuries. We've already got used to the idea of Conservative extinction.
    What is a real worry is that the two extreme left and right parties, with incoherent policies, could be anywhere near government
    I agree. There’s a lack of scrutiny on both of them. The greens is probably early and they have only just come out with their policies. All of which would appear to appeal to quite a narrow demographic but, at least, they have policies. Aside from controlled migration and protecting our borders we have nothing from Reform.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,420
    edited October 10
    So who knew about Maria Corina Machado?



    Definitely no suspicious betting patterns there…
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,533

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.

    He got a very positive audience response for standing up against the divisive Reform/Con/Labour line on immigrants in a not terribly right-on part of the country (Shrewsbury), which seemed to be a reality check for Bruce and Yusef.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,484
    Sandpit said:

    So who knew about Maria Corina Machado?



    Definitely no suspicious betting patterns there…

    Another reason for Trump meltdown, enraged that he didn't get a piece of the action.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,243
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    With the Trump administration, it's always about the grift.

    So the Argentine bailout wasn’t for Argentina as much as it was for a hedge fund friend of Scott Bessent.

    Rob Citrone a billionaire hedge fund guy who owns Discovery Capital, purchased Argentine debt and equity in numerous companies closely tied to the country’s overall economy.

    He made a bet that the economic policies would revitalize the economy. He was wrong and stood to lose his ass. This was nothing more than Crony Capitalism at the tax payers expense.

    https://x.com/PrezLives2022/status/1976326675638960305

    Well, that was lucky wasn't it? I mean, its not as if anyone might have hinted at the direction of travel to Citrone before he bought his discounted debt. That would be improper.
    Actually I think it was the other way round.

    Citrone was a true believer who bought the debt because he thought it was cheap. He was wrong, but extremely fortunately and entirely by chance the US government made him whole.
  • Sandpit said:

    So who knew about Maria Corina Machado?



    Definitely no suspicious betting patterns there…

    Reminds me of this market earlier on this year


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,957
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    To cheer up your Friday morning.
    Sound on is recommended, and the best bit is at the end.

    This is the (restored) VHS footage of @HecklerAndKoch Factory testing of the G36 all the way to destruction.

    Note that they used 100 Round "double-drum" mags only.

    https://x.com/chrisschmitz/status/1976410371264291073

    What am I missing at the end?
    When he picks it back up out of the snow to reload.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,851

    Sandpit said:

    So who knew about Maria Corina Machado?



    Definitely no suspicious betting patterns there…

    Reminds me of this market earlier on this year


    What's the former MP for Montgomery doing these days?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,853
    edited October 10
    The Greens have no full answers as yet.

    On the other hand, they're serving a usual function. No one else is making some of the kind of perfectly valid case that Polanski was making on QT, that billionaires are helping place all the blame on minorities from structural social and economic issues since Thatcherism.

    Neither Starmer, or particularly the Lib Dens, are drawing attention to this reality, and YourParty seems not be functioning yet.

    The result is that the public sense of who to hold accountable is gradually being drawn further and further to the right, so he's a useful corrective.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,420

    Sandpit said:

    So who knew about Maria Corina Machado?



    Definitely no suspicious betting patterns there…

    Reminds me of this market earlier on this year


    Now that’s what happens when you made the decision in a sealed room with no phones.

    The Vatican knows how to keep a secret.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,957
    Turkey is in advanced talks with Qatar to acquire its fleet of Eurofighter Typhoons. Qatar operates 24 Tranche 3 Typhoons that entered QEAF service as recently as 2022. The move is seen as a stopgap measure to supplement Turkey’s (ageing) F-16 fleet and bridge the gap as the domestically developed TAI TF KAAN project takes shape.
    https://x.com/RealAirPower1/status/1976503289102446692
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,628
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    9h
    Aughton & Holborn (West Lancashire) Council By-Election Result:

    OWL: 35.5% (+10.4)
    RFM: 24.1% (+18.6)
    LAB: 19.4% (-21.3)
    CON: 14.9% (-8.7)
    GRN: 3.9% (-1.1)
    LDM: 2.1%

    EICIPM

    Reform will probably win, whether as largest party or a majority I'm not sure - but the next election is shaping up to be all about the collapse of the Labour vote.
    Which is mad because the bigger story is the obliteration of the main party of government over the last two centuries. We've already got used to the idea of Conservative extinction.
    What is a real worry is that the two extreme left and right parties, with incoherent policies, could be anywhere near government
    I agree. There’s a lack of scrutiny on both of them. The greens is probably early and they have only just come out with their policies. All of which would appear to appeal to quite a narrow demographic but, at least, they have policies. Aside from controlled migration and protecting our borders we have nothing from Reform.
    I think it's unlikely that Greens will mirror Reform, though not impossible. Reform currently have large support because a lot of voters have given up on rationality, caution, centrism and broad policy objectives. Bright people like Leon simply shrug and ignore when invited to deal with the actual realities of Reform objectives, or their talent pool, claiming they are content to bring down the building like Samson.

    The major parties bear most blame for this by what Oborne calls 'The Rise of Political Lying'. You give up on the centre because they lie, evade, don't answer questions and don't act as grown ups.

    Greens are Reform's mirror. But I doubt if more than about 15% of voters, from the 55% pool of those who will or might vote leftishly, will go for it. Labour will recover a bit, and the LDs (who won't join with Greens) are an option.

    About September 2027 is the time to start making a realistic assessment and prognostications for a Spring 2029 election.

  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,709

    Eabhal said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    9h
    Aughton & Holborn (West Lancashire) Council By-Election Result:

    OWL: 35.5% (+10.4)
    RFM: 24.1% (+18.6)
    LAB: 19.4% (-21.3)
    CON: 14.9% (-8.7)
    GRN: 3.9% (-1.1)
    LDM: 2.1%

    EICIPM

    Reform will probably win, whether as largest party or a majority I'm not sure - but the next election is shaping up to be all about the collapse of the Labour vote.
    Which is mad because the bigger story is the obliteration of the main party of government over the last two centuries. We've already got used to the idea of Conservative extinction.
    What is a real worry is that the two extreme left and right parties, with incoherent policies, could be anywhere near government
    Are not Kent's Reform-run County Council going to increase the rates next year?
    Turns out there's no money, nothing to cut and increasing social care costs. Completely unexpected, they were shocked!!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,700

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.

    My impression is that Reform and Greens don't come into contact much on the ground. The areas where the Greens are strongest are where Reform is weakest, and vice versa.

    The effect the Greens could have is to obliterate the remaining Labour strongholds, particularly in London. When we see the seat projections they give Reform a landslide majority the remaining Labour seats are in London, and other urban areas. If the Greens make inroads there, then potentially you're looking at a wipeout scenario for Labour.

    Possibly voters like @Leon might decide to vote Green tactically to unseat their local Labour MP. It's the sort of scenario that might see the Tories win more seats than Labour (with the Tories being fifth and Labour sixth).
    There are rural wards where the Greens and Reform compete against each other, but by and large, that is correct. It's similar to the way that there are not many wards where the Lib Dems and Reform are competing against each other.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,700

    The Greens have no full answers as yet.

    On the other hand, they're serving a usual function. No one else is making some of the kind of perfectly valid case that Polanski was making on QT, that billionaires are helping place all the blame on minorities from structural social and economic issues since Thatcherism.

    Neither Starmer, or particularly the Lib Dens, are drawing attention to this reality, and YourParty seems not be functioning yet.

    The result is that the public sense of who to hold accountable is gradually being drawn further and further to the right, so he's a useful corrective.

    The problem with the Greens is that they are antediluvian, and their policy proposals are crap.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,709

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
    If he's losing the conspiracy nutters who else does he have? The Epstein stuff has holed him and I've also got videos of that Theo Von guy getting upset by ICE.
    It’s only a matter of time before ICE do a house with a bonafide MAGA, ex-military, gun nut in residence.

    Think Ruby Ridge. Squared.

    Ironic that it’s the nut case right who have made the Black Helicopters full of Feds in Black come true. Complete with the secret holding camps where you are detained without trial.
    Ironic how?
    Standard for nut case right govts.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,718

    MaxPB said:

    This honestly feels like Trump's "Mission accomplished" banner moment. I hope that the peace is lasting but Hamas aren't to be trusted at all. Without an Arab led peacekeeping force I don't see how they don't just revert to type once the IDF vacates Gaza.

    Turkey are being identified as the leaders of a stabilisation force, though it doesn't sound like there's a firm plan yet.
    Actually, that sounds like a plan; Muslims, but not Arabs.

    And I agree with whoever it was who said that without very careful handling we're going to see the next generation of older teenagers in Gaza taking up rifles and petrol bombs.
    Tony of Arabia and the Turks. Reminds me of some old film.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,488
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
    Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,488

    MaxPB said:

    This honestly feels like Trump's "Mission accomplished" banner moment. I hope that the peace is lasting but Hamas aren't to be trusted at all. Without an Arab led peacekeeping force I don't see how they don't just revert to type once the IDF vacates Gaza.

    Turkey are being identified as the leaders of a stabilisation force, though it doesn't sound like there's a firm plan yet.
    Israel may not be keen on a their local regional superpower rival coming to Gaza. There are already significant tensions with both countries' militaries operating in Syria.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,481
    Dopermean said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
    If he's losing the conspiracy nutters who else does he have? The Epstein stuff has holed him and I've also got videos of that Theo Von guy getting upset by ICE.
    It’s only a matter of time before ICE do a house with a bonafide MAGA, ex-military, gun nut in residence.

    Think Ruby Ridge. Squared.

    Ironic that it’s the nut case right who have made the Black Helicopters full of Feds in Black come true. Complete with the secret holding camps where you are detained without trial.
    Ironic how?
    Standard for nut case right govts.
    Standard conspiracy theory on the nut-right for decades in the US - Fed Gov will send Feds in black uniforms with no name tags in black, unmarked helicopters. To kidnap you and hold you in secret detention camps.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,498
    edited October 10

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
    Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
    Outside the Royal Observatory in Greenwich there is a clock with a 24-hour face. If one of those is stopped it's only right once a day.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,263
    A review by NPR of some of the propaganda being used by the White House & ICE.

    One of the images is "American Progress" by John Gast, leaning in to Manifest Destiny.

    https://www.npr.org/2025/08/18/nx-s1-5482921/memes-white-house-dhs-social-media-trump
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 35,032
    Sandpit said:

    The Nobel decision would have been made before yesterday, so it’s unlikey to be Trump as he failed miserably to get Russia out of Ukraine, a job he thought would be easy but proved not to be.

    He does deserve some credit for the ceasefire in Israel and Gaza, if it holds, so he has a year to smack Putin’s arse with Tomahawks if he wants that prize.

    Nominations were in in January 2025, so he wasn't nominated. At best he wouldn't be eligible for his award until 2026.

    I say give him an award anyway, then recall the award posthumously.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,498

    MaxPB said:

    This honestly feels like Trump's "Mission accomplished" banner moment. I hope that the peace is lasting but Hamas aren't to be trusted at all. Without an Arab led peacekeeping force I don't see how they don't just revert to type once the IDF vacates Gaza.

    Turkey are being identified as the leaders of a stabilisation force, though it doesn't sound like there's a firm plan yet.
    Israel may not be keen on a their local regional superpower rival coming to Gaza. There are already significant tensions with both countries' militaries operating in Syria.
    Yes, that is true.

    In general I don't think that Israel will be happy with any other military power in Gaza that would act as a constraint on its freedom of action. So a lot depends on the terms of engagement. UNIFIL in Southern Lebanon is toothless, for example.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,400
    edited October 10

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
    Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
    Outside the Royal Observatory in Greenwich there is a clock with a 24-hour face. If one of those is stopped it's only right once a day.
    For £45700 you can get one which you can't tell is stopped, obviating all these worries:

    https://www.breguet.com/en/watches/classique/classique-souscription-2025/2025bh289w6
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 35,032
    Nigelb said:

    Cicero said:

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning PB.

    Important news: The Gentrification of Penge:

    An influx of independent coffee shops, cycle clubs and art galleries has changed the face of Penge for good.

    Long-time residents were stunned at the start of the year when it was voted one of the top 11 coolest postcodes in Britain.
    ...
    Nothing screams the new Penge more than a series of street artwork next to a McDonald's in the town centre.
    ...
    'It's not posh, never has been posh, so why try and make it posh?

    'They're trying to make it look like Brixton - and that is not a good thing.

    http://bit.ly/42BZxua (incoming Daily Mail)

    Lots going on here.
    1) "Penge" is one of the most cherishably ridiculous names for a suburb in the country. Very London. If the opening section to "Sheffield: Sex City" were transposed to London, Penge would definitely feature.
    2) "They" - there seems to be a pervasive inference among the complaining classes that "They" are a lot more coordinated and powerful than is actually the case. Who are "they"? I normally infer the local council. Having worked with councils, I am amused by the idea of them as shadowy and powerful cabals.
    3) London is the only place in the country where people seem to resent the idea of their suburb improving in any way. "Gentrification" is a pejorative term in London in a way that it really isn't in the rest of the country.
    4) Having grown up in the 80s, the idea that anywhere might aspire to be Brixton is interestingly jarring.
    Railway Cuttings, Penge. Home of Hancock's Half Hour, of blessed memory. His death in 1968 hit the nation hard.

    Thankfully quite a bit of both his radio and TV work survives. Beginners (are there some on PB?) might start with 'The Blood Donor'.
    Alas it was Railway Cuttings, East Cheam...

    Penge is though one of those near comedy names like Chorlton-cum-Hardy or Twatt that lives long in the memory, for some reason.
    Both Bonar Law, and Thomas Crapper were residents of Penge.
    Penge was famous amongst 1960s and 70s Blue Peter viewers for Peggy Spencer's dance school in Penge.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,488
    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
    If he's losing the conspiracy nutters who else does he have? The Epstein stuff has holed him and I've also got videos of that Theo Von guy getting upset by ICE.
    You’re right on the Epstein stuff, that’s gone down really badly with the base, they were told they’d be seeing the Epstein files and they haven’t turned up. The base are pretty pissed with Pam Bondi for her comments on “hate speech” as well.

    The likes of Joe Rogan and Theo Von are both pretty centrist comics, despite them both voting for Trump last time out. They’ve both made negative comments on execution of immigration raids, while being supportive of the concept. They’re a pretty good barometer for the general feeling in the country I think.

    As for Tucker, everything he says needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt. Like so many journalists now working for himself and paid to have an opinion, he doesn’t make factual stuff up but often leaves out a lot of context, and also knows that the wildest opinions drive social media “engagement”.
    I'm not convinced by your definition of "centrist". Back in September, you described Charlie Kirk as "a middle-of-the-road conservative Christian youth movement leader". Charlie Kirk absolutely did not deserve to die, but he was racist and anti-Semitic, so it seems odd to describe him as "middle-of-the-road", as it seems odd to describe Rogan as "centrist". I suggest that you are still so deep in a MAGA social media bubble that you are struggling to discern reality.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,488
    Sean_F said:

    The Greens have no full answers as yet.

    On the other hand, they're serving a usual function. No one else is making some of the kind of perfectly valid case that Polanski was making on QT, that billionaires are helping place all the blame on minorities from structural social and economic issues since Thatcherism.

    Neither Starmer, or particularly the Lib Dens, are drawing attention to this reality, and YourParty seems not be functioning yet.

    The result is that the public sense of who to hold accountable is gradually being drawn further and further to the right, so he's a useful corrective.

    The problem with the Greens is that they are antediluvian, and their policy proposals are crap.
    The Greens do believe in a prelapsarian paradise, perhaps something they share with Reform UK.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,853
    edited October 10
    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    9h
    Aughton & Holborn (West Lancashire) Council By-Election Result:

    OWL: 35.5% (+10.4)
    RFM: 24.1% (+18.6)
    LAB: 19.4% (-21.3)
    CON: 14.9% (-8.7)
    GRN: 3.9% (-1.1)
    LDM: 2.1%

    EICIPM

    Reform will probably win, whether as largest party or a majority I'm not sure - but the next election is shaping up to be all about the collapse of the Labour vote.
    Which is mad because the bigger story is the obliteration of the main party of government over the last two centuries. We've already got used to the idea of Conservative extinction.
    What is a real worry is that the two extreme left and right parties, with incoherent policies, could be anywhere near government
    I agree. There’s a lack of scrutiny on both of them. The greens is probably early and they have only just come out with their policies. All of which would appear to appeal to quite a narrow demographic but, at least, they have policies. Aside from controlled migration and protecting our borders we have nothing from Reform.
    I think it's unlikely that Greens will mirror Reform, though not impossible. Reform currently have large support because a lot of voters have given up on rationality, caution, centrism and broad policy objectives. Bright people like Leon simply shrug and ignore when invited to deal with the actual realities of Reform objectives, or their talent pool, claiming they are content to bring down the building like Samson.

    The major parties bear most blame for this by what Oborne calls 'The Rise of Political Lying'. You give up on the centre because they lie, evade, don't answer questions and don't act as grown ups.

    Greens are Reform's mirror. But I doubt if more than about 15% of voters, from the 55% pool of those who will or might vote leftishly, will go for it. Labour will recover a bit, and the LDs (who won't join with Greens) are an option.

    About September 2027 is the time to start making a realistic assessment and prognostications for a Spring 2029 election.

    I'm not sure that I'd agree that the Greens are Reform's mirror in outlook, rather than policies.

    Many of the Greens" initial policies ate not too realistic, so far. On the other hand, Polanski"s correct analysis of increasing plutucratic dominance in Britain is the opposite of Reform's, who are actually funded by some of the largest plutocrats themselves. The Greens are not funded by special interest groups, so far.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,851

    MaxPB said:

    This honestly feels like Trump's "Mission accomplished" banner moment. I hope that the peace is lasting but Hamas aren't to be trusted at all. Without an Arab led peacekeeping force I don't see how they don't just revert to type once the IDF vacates Gaza.

    Turkey are being identified as the leaders of a stabilisation force, though it doesn't sound like there's a firm plan yet.
    Israel may not be keen on a their local regional superpower rival coming to Gaza. There are already significant tensions with both countries' militaries operating in Syria.
    Tough. Israel shouldn't be operating Syria anyway. Turkey went in as part of a peacekeeping arrangement against ISIS.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,383

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good, you cannot have any Tom, Dick, or Mary being able to walk in.

    JPMorgan requiring biometric data for staff access to new headquarters

    New York bank is imposing eye and fingerprint scans amid heightened security concerns at corporate offices


    JPMorgan Chase has told staff moving into the US bank’s new multibillion-dollar Manhattan headquarters they must share their biometric data to access the building, overriding a prior plan for voluntary enrolment.

    Employees who have started work at its 270 Park Avenue skyscraper since August have received emails saying biometric access is “required”, according to a communication seen by the Financial Times. This allows people to scan their fingerprints or eye instead of ID badges to get through the lobby security gates.

    JPMorgan declined to comment. The bank’s headquarters, which cost a reported $3bn, will eventually house about 10,000 employees once it is fully open later this year.

    The goal is to make access to the building more secure and convenient. There are exemptions for some employees who can still use their badge to enter the building, though it was not clear who would receive them.

    It comes amid heightened security concerns across corporate offices in New York following a deadly shooting at 345 Park Avenue in July, a few blocks up the street from JPMorgan’s offices.


    https://www.ft.com/content/d5351d3d-d64f-4a90-a3da-d1ef8e8bea66

    It’s a bit more difficult to bribe or extort someone for their fingers and eyes, than to borrow or copy an ID card.

    For those wondering, these systems don’t actually store fingerprints and eye scans, they store an algorithmic code that represents them when presented to the machine. Same as TouchID and FaceID on your phone.
    Many years ago when I worked in Leeds the office fob point stopped working properly, and instead of using your card to get in you could use anything to swipe in, I once swiped in using a potato.
    Why were you carrying a potato in Leeds? Were you carrying it to wow the benighted people of Leeds with this magical food from across the ocean?
    My colleagues and I set ourselves a challenge with the most obscure item you could swipe in with.

    So I brought in a potato from home.
    A colleague managed to gain access to a restricted government research site using a library card.

    I was never quite brave enough to try that if I forgot my ID as there were too many firearms on view.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,166

    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
    If he's losing the conspiracy nutters who else does he have? The Epstein stuff has holed him and I've also got videos of that Theo Von guy getting upset by ICE.
    You’re right on the Epstein stuff, that’s gone down really badly with the base, they were told they’d be seeing the Epstein files and they haven’t turned up. The base are pretty pissed with Pam Bondi for her comments on “hate speech” as well.

    The likes of Joe Rogan and Theo Von are both pretty centrist comics, despite them both voting for Trump last time out. They’ve both made negative comments on execution of immigration raids, while being supportive of the concept. They’re a pretty good barometer for the general feeling in the country I think.

    As for Tucker, everything he says needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt. Like so many journalists now working for himself and paid to have an opinion, he doesn’t make factual stuff up but often leaves out a lot of context, and also knows that the wildest opinions drive social media “engagement”.
    I'm not convinced by your definition of "centrist". Back in September, you described Charlie Kirk as "a middle-of-the-road conservative Christian youth movement leader". Charlie Kirk absolutely did not deserve to die, but he was racist and anti-Semitic, so it seems odd to describe him as "middle-of-the-road", as it seems odd to describe Rogan as "centrist". I suggest that you are still so deep in a MAGA social media bubble that you are struggling to discern reality.
    It's very confusing. When Leon calls me a "centrist dad" is he comparing me to JD Vance?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,680
    Clearly Kemi needed some sort of rabbit out of the hat and as the poll shows cutting Stamp Duty is welcomed by most voters. I don't expect it to see a dramatic change in the polls but it should get the Tories back up to 20%+. Even FON, the best pollster for Reform, had a 3% swing from Reform to Conservative yesterday.

    The biggest boost to the Tories will be in London and the Home Counties where house prices are highest. Last night's local by elections were mainly not in those areas
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,420
    edited October 10

    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
    If he's losing the conspiracy nutters who else does he have? The Epstein stuff has holed him and I've also got videos of that Theo Von guy getting upset by ICE.
    You’re right on the Epstein stuff, that’s gone down really badly with the base, they were told they’d be seeing the Epstein files and they haven’t turned up. The base are pretty pissed with Pam Bondi for her comments on “hate speech” as well.

    The likes of Joe Rogan and Theo Von are both pretty centrist comics, despite them both voting for Trump last time out. They’ve both made negative comments on execution of immigration raids, while being supportive of the concept. They’re a pretty good barometer for the general feeling in the country I think.

    As for Tucker, everything he says needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt. Like so many journalists now working for himself and paid to have an opinion, he doesn’t make factual stuff up but often leaves out a lot of context, and also knows that the wildest opinions drive social media “engagement”.
    I'm not convinced by your definition of "centrist". Back in September, you described Charlie Kirk as "a middle-of-the-road conservative Christian youth movement leader". Charlie Kirk absolutely did not deserve to die, but he was racist and anti-Semitic, so it seems odd to describe him as "middle-of-the-road", as it seems odd to describe Rogan as "centrist". I suggest that you are still so deep in a MAGA social media bubble that you are struggling to discern reality.
    Oh dear.

    Rogan said he’d never voted Republican before last year, and that he voted for Obama. He’s described himself as centre-left, but said that the Democrats had gone crazy over censorship and gender stuff.

    Von is slightly to the right of Rogan, but has also described himself as pretty centrist.

    Charlie Kirk was not racist, there’s no evidence whatsoever of that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,680

    The Greens have no full answers as yet.

    On the other hand, they're serving a usual function. No one else is making some of the kind of perfectly valid case that Polanski was making on QT, that billionaires are helping place all the blame on minorities from structural social and economic issues since Thatcherism.

    Neither Starmer, or particularly the Lib Dens, are drawing attention to this reality, and YourParty seems not be functioning yet.

    The result is that the public sense of who to hold accountable is gradually being drawn further and further to the right, so he's a useful corrective.

    Polanski is following the lead of the NYC Democratic Mayoral candidate, reheated socialism Corbyn, Melenchon and Sanders style and hammer the rich with tax
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 35,032
    HYUFD said:

    Clearly Kemi needed some sort of rabbit out of the hat and as the poll shows cutting Stamp Duty is welcomed by most voters. I don't expect it to see a dramatic change in the polls but it should get the Tories back up to 20%+. Even FON, the best pollster for Reform, had a 3% swing from Reform to Conservative yesterday.

    The biggest boost to the Tories will be in London and the Home Counties where house prices are highest. Last night's local by elections were mainly not in those areas

    Are you sure the voter has already forgotten your team was in Government between 2010 and 2024?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,118

    45 minutes to the Nobel Peace Prize announcement. This week's Gaza peace deal will surely have come too late!

    Venezuelan democracy activist María Corina Machado wins Nobel Peace Prize
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c1l80g1qe4gt

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,680
    edited October 10

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.

    My impression is that Reform and Greens don't come into contact much on the ground. The areas where the Greens are strongest are where Reform is weakest, and vice versa.

    The effect the Greens could have is to obliterate the remaining Labour strongholds, particularly in London. When we see the seat projections they give Reform a landslide majority the remaining Labour seats are in London, and other urban areas. If the Greens make inroads there, then potentially you're looking at a wipeout scenario for Labour.

    Possibly voters like @Leon might decide to vote Green tactically to unseat their local Labour MP. It's the sort of scenario that might see the Tories win more seats than Labour (with the Tories being fifth and Labour sixth).
    Leon would be mad to do so,
    Polanski is borderline Marxist
    and makes even Corbyn look
    moderate. I would even vote Labour over Green
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,405
    HYUFD said:

    The Greens have no full answers as yet.

    On the other hand, they're serving a usual function. No one else is making some of the kind of perfectly valid case that Polanski was making on QT, that billionaires are helping place all the blame on minorities from structural social and economic issues since Thatcherism.

    Neither Starmer, or particularly the Lib Dens, are drawing attention to this reality, and YourParty seems not be functioning yet.

    The result is that the public sense of who to hold accountable is gradually being drawn further and further to the right, so he's a useful corrective.

    Polanski is following the lead of the NYC Democratic Mayoral candidate, reheated socialism Corbyn, Melenchon and Sanders style and hammer the rich with tax
    Will no one think of the polar bears anymore?

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,947
    Here's an interesting question I'll adapt from another message board I lurk on.

    Which PBer, past or present, would make the most interesting subject for a Louis Theroux documentary?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 35,032

    Cicero said:

    eek said:

    45 minutes to the Nobel Peace Prize announcement. This week's Gaza peace deal will surely have come too late!

    So 50 minutes until Trump declares war on Sweden due to the slight of not winning it
    eek said:

    45 minutes to the Nobel Peace Prize announcement. This week's Gaza peace deal will surely have come too late!

    So 50 minutes until Trump declares war on Sweden due to the slight of not winning it
    Well of course Trump would do that, particularly as it is the Norwegian Nobel committee that decides.

    Greenlanders will be fearing the worst- unless Trump gets the Peace prize, there will be war. It is beyond parody really.
    Shouldn't it be Jared Kushner who gets the prize? He seems to be the one who has done all the work.

    Now that would make for a lovely family Thanksgiving meal at chez Trump!!!
    Tony Blair?

    Joe Biden who tried to get it over the line in September 2024?

    Or Qatar's Al Thani family who gifted Donald Trump with a new airliner?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,853
    edited October 10
    HYUFD said:

    The Greens have no full answers as yet.

    On the other hand, they're serving a usual function. No one else is making some of the kind of perfectly valid case that Polanski was making on QT, that billionaires are helping place all the blame on minorities from structural social and economic issues since Thatcherism.

    Neither Starmer, or particularly the Lib Dens, are drawing attention to this reality, and YourParty seems not be functioning yet.

    The result is that the public sense of who to hold accountable is gradually being drawn further and further to the right, so he's a useful corrective.

    Polanski is following the lead of the NYC Democratic Mayoral candidate, reheated socialism Corbyn, Melenchon and Sanders style and hammer the rich with tax
    It depends what the balance of analysis and policy ends up being, in that area. If he ends up closer to Sanders than Corbyn there, he'll make an important contribution. He's brighter than Corbyn, so that's quite possible. At the moment he's just establishing himself.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,947

    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
    If he's losing the conspiracy nutters who else does he have? The Epstein stuff has holed him and I've also got videos of that Theo Von guy getting upset by ICE.
    You’re right on the Epstein stuff, that’s gone down really badly with the base, they were told they’d be seeing the Epstein files and they haven’t turned up. The base are pretty pissed with Pam Bondi for her comments on “hate speech” as well.

    The likes of Joe Rogan and Theo Von are both pretty centrist comics, despite them both voting for Trump last time out. They’ve both made negative comments on execution of immigration raids, while being supportive of the concept. They’re a pretty good barometer for the general feeling in the country I think.

    As for Tucker, everything he says needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt. Like so many journalists now working for himself and paid to have an opinion, he doesn’t make factual stuff up but often leaves out a lot of context, and also knows that the wildest opinions drive social media “engagement”.
    I'm not convinced by your definition of "centrist". Back in September, you described Charlie Kirk as "a middle-of-the-road conservative Christian youth movement leader". Charlie Kirk absolutely did not deserve to die, but he was racist and anti-Semitic, so it seems odd to describe him as "middle-of-the-road", as it seems odd to describe Rogan as "centrist". I suggest that you are still so deep in a MAGA social media bubble that you are struggling to discern reality.
    The thing about Rogan, and his success, is that he's listenable. I quite enjoyed some of his stuff years ago.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,859
    edited October 10
    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Morning, P.B.

    Zack Polanski once again going viral after. Question Time on twitter, with some of the plaudits from those I've often seen otherwise to be found on apolitical threads. I'm beginning to think that the Greens versus Reform is going to be a key contest, if not the most key confict itself, at the next election.


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    9h
    Aughton & Holborn (West Lancashire) Council By-Election Result:

    OWL: 35.5% (+10.4)
    RFM: 24.1% (+18.6)
    LAB: 19.4% (-21.3)
    CON: 14.9% (-8.7)
    GRN: 3.9% (-1.1)
    LDM: 2.1%

    EICIPM

    Reform will probably win, whether as largest party or a majority I'm not sure - but the next election is shaping up to be all about the collapse of the Labour vote.
    Which is mad because the bigger story is the obliteration of the main party of government over the last two centuries. We've already got used to the idea of Conservative extinction.
    What is a real worry is that the two extreme left and right parties, with incoherent policies, could be anywhere near government
    I agree. There’s a lack of scrutiny on both of them. The greens is probably early and they have only just come out with their policies. All of which would appear to appeal to quite a narrow demographic but, at least, they have policies. Aside from controlled migration and protecting our borders we have nothing from Reform.
    I think it's unlikely that Greens will mirror Reform, though not impossible. Reform currently have large support because a lot of voters have given up on rationality, caution, centrism and broad policy objectives. Bright people like Leon simply shrug and ignore when invited to deal with the actual realities of Reform objectives, or their talent pool, claiming they are content to bring down the building like Samson.

    The major parties bear most blame for this by what Oborne calls 'The Rise of Political Lying'. You give up on the centre because they lie, evade, don't answer questions and don't act as grown ups.

    Greens are Reform's mirror. But I doubt if more than about 15% of voters, from the 55% pool of those who will or might vote leftishly, will go for it. Labour will recover a bit, and the LDs (who won't join with Greens) are an option.

    About September 2027 is the time to start making a realistic assessment and prognostications for a Spring 2029 election.

    We all know the struggle the conservatives face, but I genuinely believe labour are facing the same existential threat, and possibly worse

    The political forces, both here and elsewhere, are very much moving right and left leaving the tradional parties stranded

    You only need to look at France, because that is happening right now with an impotent President who looks faintly ridiculous and powerless

    There is no certainty that now 'the genie' is out of the bottle, the political movement is just a temporary blip rather than a long term fracture
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 35,032
    edited October 10
    DougSeal said:

    Here's an interesting question I'll adapt from another message board I lurk on.

    Which PBer, past or present, would make the most interesting subject for a Louis Theroux documentary?

    Like, is there a poster who is absolutely as deranged as f***?

    Can I come back to you on that?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,400
    DougSeal said:

    Here's an interesting question I'll adapt from another message board I lurk on.

    Which PBer, past or present, would make the most interesting subject for a Louis Theroux documentary?

    Plato.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 941

    Nigelb said:

    Cicero said:

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning PB.

    Important news: The Gentrification of Penge:

    An influx of independent coffee shops, cycle clubs and art galleries has changed the face of Penge for good.

    Long-time residents were stunned at the start of the year when it was voted one of the top 11 coolest postcodes in Britain.
    ...
    Nothing screams the new Penge more than a series of street artwork next to a McDonald's in the town centre.
    ...
    'It's not posh, never has been posh, so why try and make it posh?

    'They're trying to make it look like Brixton - and that is not a good thing.

    http://bit.ly/42BZxua (incoming Daily Mail)

    Lots going on here.
    1) "Penge" is one of the most cherishably ridiculous names for a suburb in the country. Very London. If the opening section to "Sheffield: Sex City" were transposed to London, Penge would definitely feature.
    2) "They" - there seems to be a pervasive inference among the complaining classes that "They" are a lot more coordinated and powerful than is actually the case. Who are "they"? I normally infer the local council. Having worked with councils, I am amused by the idea of them as shadowy and powerful cabals.
    3) London is the only place in the country where people seem to resent the idea of their suburb improving in any way. "Gentrification" is a pejorative term in London in a way that it really isn't in the rest of the country.
    4) Having grown up in the 80s, the idea that anywhere might aspire to be Brixton is interestingly jarring.
    Railway Cuttings, Penge. Home of Hancock's Half Hour, of blessed memory. His death in 1968 hit the nation hard.

    Thankfully quite a bit of both his radio and TV work survives. Beginners (are there some on PB?) might start with 'The Blood Donor'.
    Alas it was Railway Cuttings, East Cheam...

    Penge is though one of those near comedy names like Chorlton-cum-Hardy or Twatt that lives long in the memory, for some reason.
    Both Bonar Law, and Thomas Crapper were residents of Penge.
    Penge was famous amongst 1960s and 70s Blue Peter viewers for Peggy Spencer's dance school in Penge.
    There was also the "Penge Papers" - I dimly recall gently humorous extracts being read on Radio 4 in the 80s and on looking it up I see it was a book by Brian Wright (I confess I would otherwise never have heard of him).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,680
    viewcode said:

    45 minutes to the Nobel Peace Prize announcement. This week's Gaza peace deal will surely have come too late!

    Venezuelan democracy activist María Corina Machado wins Nobel Peace Prize
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c1l80g1qe4gt

    Good choice actually, not Trump but an anti Maduro activist who Trump can't really complain about as he also hates Maduro
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