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Some good news for Badenoch but will it move the polls? – politicalbetting.com

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  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,488
    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Aggregate Result of the 122 Council By-Elections (for 125 Seats) since the 2025 Local Elections:

    RFM: 47 (+40)
    LDM: 32 (+10)
    CON: 13 (-15)
    LAB: 12 (-30)
    GRN: 11 (+3)
    Ind: 5 (-4)
    Local: 3 (-3)
    SNP: 1 (-1)
    PLC: 1 (=)

    Explore: https://electionmaps.uk/byelections-since-le2025"

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK

    LibDems second, although that's probably just because they benefit from FPTP. (Oh, the irony of saying that.)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,628

    kinabalu said:

    boulay said:

    The US gov/Presidency/White House machine has reached the part where people would say “if you made this as a movie everyone would think it’s over the top” to the point that nothing truly can satirise it again.

    'The Nobel Committee proved they place politics over peace,' said Steven Cheung, White House Director of Communication.

    It’s like a reverse “Bugsy Malone” where in this film the adults are playing children. The fact they can be so fucking unbelievably stupid and “white is black and black is white” is nuts.

    Do you think they stand in front of a mirror later looking at themselves in shame for spouting this garbage? If they don’t then it’s even more of a problem as they aren’t disingenuous and are instead stupid.

    You had Noem the other day announcing they had arrested “the girlfriend of one of the founders of Antifa” and standing on a roof in Portland showing off the war zone - a guy in a chicken suit and about 20 reporters.

    It’s a bit of an overused phrase but this series really has jumped the shark”.

    Yep. That's a big part of the Trump poison. Things that a short while ago would have been regarded as utterly ludicrous (and mainly in a bad way) now happen constantly and pass with a shrug or a snigger.
    Nigey has been busy today.

    Talking of Trump poison. Sir Nige is outraged that Trump, Rubio, Witkoff (?) and Kushner haven't been awarded the NPP.

    Lord Farage utterly, utterly shocked that Nathan Gill shilled for Russia.

    National Treasure Nigel Farage sees a foreigner convicted at Southwark Crown Court of incitement to kill the PM in waiting.
    Tick tock. 'He' is coming. He comes to save us all.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,785
    Scott_xP said:

    @MaxKendix

    Exc: Eight Reform UK councils have indicated that they will raise council tax next year after struggling to find sweeping cuts in public spending

    https://x.com/MaxKendix/status/1976638947284664609

    They’ll be hammered in the next GE campaign for this, whether they could do anything about it or not.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,400
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdx216n1529o

    Boat people are charmers pt 94.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,957
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foss said:

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Moderately encouraging news from Turkey.

    https://x.com/SpeechUnion/status/1976614542785270149
    MAJOR VICTORY FOR FREE SPEECH! HAMIT COSKUN WINS HIS APPEAL AGAINST ISLAMIC BLASPHEMY LAW

    The Free Speech Union is delighted that Hamit Coskun’s appeal has been successful.

    Hamit was convicted under the Public Order Act for burning a copy of the Koran during a lawful protest against the rise of political Islam and authorities in Turkey under President Erdoğan’s regime.

    The court conflated his political protest against Islam with hatred of Muslims, effectively reviving blasphemy law by the back door. It ruled his action as “disorderly” — not because of what Hamit did, but because it provoked violence against him, namely a man called Moussa Kadri slashed a knife at him and shouted “I’m going to kill you”. Kadri was spared jail time, and actions were used to prove Hamit’s guilt. Meanwhile, Hamit is forced to live in hiding due to multiple threats to his life.

    Hamit’s conviction has now been overturned. Had the verdict been allowed to stand, it would have sent a message to religious fundamentalists up and down the country that all they need to do to enforce their blasphemy codes is to violently attack the blasphemer, thereby making him or her guilty of having caused public disorder.

    Instead, the Crown Court has sent the opposite message - that anti-religious protests, however offensive to true believers, must be tolerated.

    This was in London, outside the Turkish consulate
    My apologies.
    Why wasn't this Kadri character arrested and charged ?
    He was. The judiciary decided he required nothing more than a Hard Stare.
    Just catching up on this, as I don't recall it.
    A suspended sentence of 18 months,
    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Rex-v-Moussa-Kadri.pdf

    Not quite clear what a "sharpened bread knife" is, but he seems rather fortunate not to have done a short time behind bars.
    Two tier justice. If that was a black gang member or a white far right rioter doing the same they would have got a custodial sentence. The UK has a class that the judiciary and politicians are doing their best to protect from the consequences of their own actions.
    Perhaps.
    On the other hand, neither of those individuals are likely to be able to be described as a "59 year old man of previous exemplary character",

    The most important aspect of this case is the no blasphemy law ruling.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,400
    edited October 10
    .....

  • isamisam Posts: 42,785
    edited October 10
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    boulay said:

    The US gov/Presidency/White House machine has reached the part where people would say “if you made this as a movie everyone would think it’s over the top” to the point that nothing truly can satirise it again.

    'The Nobel Committee proved they place politics over peace,' said Steven Cheung, White House Director of Communication.

    It’s like a reverse “Bugsy Malone” where in this film the adults are playing children. The fact they can be so fucking unbelievably stupid and “white is black and black is white” is nuts.

    Do you think they stand in front of a mirror later looking at themselves in shame for spouting this garbage? If they don’t then it’s even more of a problem as they aren’t disingenuous and are instead stupid.

    You had Noem the other day announcing they had arrested “the girlfriend of one of the founders of Antifa” and standing on a roof in Portland showing off the war zone - a guy in a chicken suit and about 20 reporters.

    It’s a bit of an overused phrase but this series really has jumped the shark”.

    Yep. That's a big part of the Trump poison. Things that a short while ago would have been regarded as utterly ludicrous (and mainly in a bad way) now happen constantly and pass with a shrug or a snigger.
    Nigey has been busy today.

    Talking of Trump poison. Sir Nige is outraged that Trump, Rubio, Witkoff (?) and Kushner haven't been awarded the NPP.

    Lord Farage utterly, utterly shocked that Nathan Gill shilled for Russia.

    National Treasure Nigel Farage sees a foreigner convicted at Southwark Crown Court of incitement to kill the PM in waiting.
    Tick tock. 'He' is coming. He comes to save us all.
    Speaking of TikTok

    BREAKING: Small boat migrant Fayaz Khan, 26, has been found GUILTY of making a threat to kill Reform UK leader Nigel Farage in a TikTok post last year.

    https://x.com/realbenbloch/status/1976638907526844831?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,481
    On MAGA/Reform/Ukraine

    Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.

    He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”

    Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,700

    On MAGA/Reform/Ukraine

    Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.

    He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”

    Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.

    There’s a noticeable lack of confidence now, among pro-Russian bloggers.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,263
    Do we have any mathematicians here?

    I'm losing count of French Prime Ministers. How many have there been recently?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,068
    MattW said:

    Do we have any mathematicians here?

    I'm losing count of French Prime Ministers. How many have there been recently?

    We're a bit Trussed up when it comes to PM laughing and pointing.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,838
    MattW said:

    Do we have any mathematicians here?

    I'm losing count of French Prime Ministers. How many have there been recently?

    The next one appointed will be the 8th under Macron (since 2017).

    The last 4 have lasted 240 days, 99 days, 270 days, 31 days...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,974
    MattW said:

    Do we have any mathematicians here?

    I'm losing count of French Prime Ministers. How many have there been recently?

    Be interesting to know how many French PMs have served less time in office than Liz Truss.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,420
    This might be a story.

    Russia has started issuing military callups to residents near Moscow.

    https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1976572588852662742

    Some people are trying to flee the country to avoid, and getting stopped as they leave.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,859
    isam said:



    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    boulay said:

    The US gov/Presidency/White House machine has reached the part where people would say “if you made this as a movie everyone would think it’s over the top” to the point that nothing truly can satirise it again.

    'The Nobel Committee proved they place politics over peace,' said Steven Cheung, White House Director of Communication.

    It’s like a reverse “Bugsy Malone” where in this film the adults are playing children. The fact they can be so fucking unbelievably stupid and “white is black and black is white” is nuts.

    Do you think they stand in front of a mirror later looking at themselves in shame for spouting this garbage? If they don’t then it’s even more of a problem as they aren’t disingenuous and are instead stupid.

    You had Noem the other day announcing they had arrested “the girlfriend of one of the founders of Antifa” and standing on a roof in Portland showing off the war zone - a guy in a chicken suit and about 20 reporters.

    It’s a bit of an overused phrase but this series really has jumped the shark”.

    Yep. That's a big part of the Trump poison. Things that a short while ago would have been regarded as utterly ludicrous (and mainly in a bad way) now happen constantly and pass with a shrug or a snigger.
    Nigey has been busy today.

    Talking of Trump poison. Sir Nige is outraged that Trump, Rubio, Witkoff (?) and Kushner haven't been awarded the NPP.

    Lord Farage utterly, utterly shocked that Nathan Gill shilled for Russia.

    National Treasure Nigel Farage sees a foreigner convicted at Southwark Crown Court of incitement to kill the PM in waiting.
    Tick tock. 'He' is coming. He comes to save us all.
    Speaking of TikTok

    BREAKING: Small boat migrant Fayaz Khan, 26, has been found GUILTY of making a threat to kill Reform UK leader Nigel Farage in a TikTok post last year.

    https://x.com/realbenbloch/status/1976638907526844831?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    Apparently he'd already done five months in Sweden after saying he would stab and rape a ticket inspector...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,283
    Sean_F said:

    On MAGA/Reform/Ukraine

    Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.

    He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”

    Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.

    There’s a noticeable lack of confidence now, among pro-Russian bloggers.
    Reposting from 8.27:-

    ‘Massive’ Russian attack on Ukraine capital triggers blackouts and sets high-rise alight
    Powerful blasts reported in Kyiv as missiles and drones target energy infrastructure, injuring nine

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/russian-attack-kyiv-ukraine-capital-blackouts-sets-high-rise-alight

    What is more interesting is someone with a big brain sharing my conspiracy theory about China and Siberia:-

    Putin’s Real Problem Isn’t NATO (45 seconds)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elJtRqY4k-0

    And here is Rory on TRiP about the difference between China & Russia (50 seconds)
    Does Putin operate with the same kind of unpredictable or chaotic strategy that Trump is known for?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0_IRBiuMiE


  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,068
    Sandpit said:

    This might be a story.

    Russia has started issuing military callups to residents near Moscow.

    https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1976572588852662742

    Some people are trying to flee the country to avoid, and getting stopped as they leave.

    Possibly quite a big story. Recruiting in the Moscow area will undoubtedly create some noise.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,290
    Sandpit said:

    This might be a story.

    Russia has started issuing military callups to residents near Moscow.

    https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1976572588852662742

    Some people are trying to flee the country to avoid, and getting stopped as they leave.

    Intreresting .. I can't read or translate the Russian text but it seems an act of desperation by Putin
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,533

    On MAGA/Reform/Ukraine

    Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.

    He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”

    Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.

    Is his opinion that "Ukraine is really, really Nazi" one in favour of Ukraine?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,420

    Sean_F said:

    On MAGA/Reform/Ukraine

    Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.

    He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”

    Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.

    There’s a noticeable lack of confidence now, among pro-Russian bloggers.
    Reposting from 8.27:-

    ‘Massive’ Russian attack on Ukraine capital triggers blackouts and sets high-rise alight
    Powerful blasts reported in Kyiv as missiles and drones target energy infrastructure, injuring nine

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/russian-attack-kyiv-ukraine-capital-blackouts-sets-high-rise-alight

    What is more interesting is someone with a big brain sharing my conspiracy theory about China and Siberia:-

    Putin’s Real Problem Isn’t NATO (45 seconds)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elJtRqY4k-0

    And here is Rory on TRiP about the difference between China & Russia (50 seconds)
    Does Putin operate with the same kind of unpredictable or chaotic strategy that Trump is known for?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0_IRBiuMiE


    Xi is rubbing his hands at the thought of the collapse of Russia. A massive opportunity for China.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,533
    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    This might be a story.

    Russia has started issuing military callups to residents near Moscow.

    https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1976572588852662742

    Some people are trying to flee the country to avoid, and getting stopped as they leave.

    Intreresting .. I can't read or translate the Russian text but it seems an act of desperation by Putin
    25 000 Cuban mercenaries recruited too.

    That's nearly a months supply of casualties.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,628
    edited October 10
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    boulay said:

    The US gov/Presidency/White House machine has reached the part where people would say “if you made this as a movie everyone would think it’s over the top” to the point that nothing truly can satirise it again.

    'The Nobel Committee proved they place politics over peace,' said Steven Cheung, White House Director of Communication.

    It’s like a reverse “Bugsy Malone” where in this film the adults are playing children. The fact they can be so fucking unbelievably stupid and “white is black and black is white” is nuts.

    Do you think they stand in front of a mirror later looking at themselves in shame for spouting this garbage? If they don’t then it’s even more of a problem as they aren’t disingenuous and are instead stupid.

    You had Noem the other day announcing they had arrested “the girlfriend of one of the founders of Antifa” and standing on a roof in Portland showing off the war zone - a guy in a chicken suit and about 20 reporters.

    It’s a bit of an overused phrase but this series really has jumped the shark”.

    Yep. That's a big part of the Trump poison. Things that a short while ago would have been regarded as utterly ludicrous (and mainly in a bad way) now happen constantly and pass with a shrug or a snigger.
    Nigey has been busy today.

    Talking of Trump poison. Sir Nige is outraged that Trump, Rubio, Witkoff (?) and Kushner haven't been awarded the NPP.

    Lord Farage utterly, utterly shocked that Nathan Gill shilled for Russia.

    National Treasure Nigel Farage sees a foreigner convicted at Southwark Crown Court of incitement to kill the PM in waiting.
    Tick tock. 'He' is coming. He comes to save us all.
    Speaking of TikTok

    BREAKING: Small boat migrant Fayaz Khan, 26, has been found GUILTY of making a threat to kill Reform UK leader Nigel Farage in a TikTok post last year.

    https://x.com/realbenbloch/status/1976638907526844831?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    There you go. Two tier unless it isn't.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,481
    Foxy said:

    On MAGA/Reform/Ukraine

    Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.

    He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”

    Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.

    Is his opinion that "Ukraine is really, really Nazi" one in favour of Ukraine?
    That's a curious one. He even acknowledges the hilarious stuff in Putins own party. He was trying to sell the idea that the iconography is just about the Balkanisation of the area - he knows Yugoslavia quite well.

    As in, the icons used are just the tribal icons last used. He was trying to make a connection with religion in the Balkans just being the tribal marker and through that to Northern Ireland.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,420
    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    This might be a story.

    Russia has started issuing military callups to residents near Moscow.

    https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1976572588852662742

    Some people are trying to flee the country to avoid, and getting stopped as they leave.

    Intreresting .. I can't read or translate the Russian text but it seems an act of desperation by Putin
    Mrs Sandpit can read Russian, and she’s laughing at it. They’ve started calling up Moscovites.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,889
    Sandpit said:

    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    This might be a story.

    Russia has started issuing military callups to residents near Moscow.

    https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1976572588852662742

    Some people are trying to flee the country to avoid, and getting stopped as they leave.

    Intreresting .. I can't read or translate the Russian text but it seems an act of desperation by Putin
    Mrs Sandpit can read Russian, and she’s laughing at it. They’ve started calling up Moscovites.
    The beginning of the end...with any luck.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,889
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    On MAGA/Reform/Ukraine

    Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.

    He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”

    Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.

    There’s a noticeable lack of confidence now, among pro-Russian bloggers.
    Reposting from 8.27:-

    ‘Massive’ Russian attack on Ukraine capital triggers blackouts and sets high-rise alight
    Powerful blasts reported in Kyiv as missiles and drones target energy infrastructure, injuring nine

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/russian-attack-kyiv-ukraine-capital-blackouts-sets-high-rise-alight

    What is more interesting is someone with a big brain sharing my conspiracy theory about China and Siberia:-

    Putin’s Real Problem Isn’t NATO (45 seconds)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elJtRqY4k-0

    And here is Rory on TRiP about the difference between China & Russia (50 seconds)
    Does Putin operate with the same kind of unpredictable or chaotic strategy that Trump is known for?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0_IRBiuMiE


    Xi is rubbing his hands at the thought of the collapse of Russia. A massive opportunity for China.
    Because Putin is such a genius the Europeans will greet this with relief not horror.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,290
    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    This might be a story.

    Russia has started issuing military callups to residents near Moscow.

    https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1976572588852662742

    Some people are trying to flee the country to avoid, and getting stopped as they leave.

    Intreresting .. I can't read or translate the Russian text but it seems an act of desperation by Putin
    Mrs Sandpit can read Russian, and she’s laughing at it. They’ve started calling up Moscovites.
    The beginning of the end...with any luck.
    What would a cornered rat do? That's his lodestar

  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,718
    About those Tomahawks. Some possible targets according to the IoW




  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,481
    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    On MAGA/Reform/Ukraine

    Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.

    He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”

    Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.

    There’s a noticeable lack of confidence now, among pro-Russian bloggers.
    Reposting from 8.27:-

    ‘Massive’ Russian attack on Ukraine capital triggers blackouts and sets high-rise alight
    Powerful blasts reported in Kyiv as missiles and drones target energy infrastructure, injuring nine

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/russian-attack-kyiv-ukraine-capital-blackouts-sets-high-rise-alight

    What is more interesting is someone with a big brain sharing my conspiracy theory about China and Siberia:-

    Putin’s Real Problem Isn’t NATO (45 seconds)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elJtRqY4k-0

    And here is Rory on TRiP about the difference between China & Russia (50 seconds)
    Does Putin operate with the same kind of unpredictable or chaotic strategy that Trump is known for?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0_IRBiuMiE


    Xi is rubbing his hands at the thought of the collapse of Russia. A massive opportunity for China.
    Because Putin is such a genius the Europeans will greet this with relief not horror.
    Unless Xi has gone Full Tonto, he doesn’t need to do anything. The border is virtually non-existent and Chinese companies are already doing what they like in the area. They just pay the local government(s) off (and kick back to Putin of course).

    This is vastly cheaper than any war.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,974
    edited October 10
    "The arrival of a generation of young producers “marinated in social media” led to a false claim about Euan Blair being broadcast on Have I Got News For You, the production chief behind the show has said.

    The first in a new series of the BBC show featured an incorrect claim that the company run by the son of the former prime minister Tony Blair had been given the contract to run the government’s new digital ID system.

    Jimmy Mulville, the founder of the programme’s producers Hat Trick Productions, said he wanted to highlight the dangers of “digital native” producers taking widely circulated claims from X, formerly Twitter, without questioning their veracity."

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2025/oct/10/bbc-false-claim-euan-blair-digital-id-young-producers-marinated-social-media
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,420
    Battlebus said:

    About those Tomahawks. Some possible targets according to the IoW



    Start with that drone factory, followed by Engels-2 AFB and the Kerch Bridge. Make it clear that no Russian military aircraft is safe West of the Urals.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,478
    @atrupar.com‬

    Hegseth: "I'm also proud that today we're signing a letter of acceptance to build a Qatari Emeri air force facility at the Mountain Home Airbase in Idaho."
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,290

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    On MAGA/Reform/Ukraine

    Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.

    He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”

    Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.

    There’s a noticeable lack of confidence now, among pro-Russian bloggers.
    Reposting from 8.27:-

    ‘Massive’ Russian attack on Ukraine capital triggers blackouts and sets high-rise alight
    Powerful blasts reported in Kyiv as missiles and drones target energy infrastructure, injuring nine

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/russian-attack-kyiv-ukraine-capital-blackouts-sets-high-rise-alight

    What is more interesting is someone with a big brain sharing my conspiracy theory about China and Siberia:-

    Putin’s Real Problem Isn’t NATO (45 seconds)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elJtRqY4k-0

    And here is Rory on TRiP about the difference between China & Russia (50 seconds)
    Does Putin operate with the same kind of unpredictable or chaotic strategy that Trump is known for?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0_IRBiuMiE


    Xi is rubbing his hands at the thought of the collapse of Russia. A massive opportunity for China.
    Because Putin is such a genius the Europeans will greet this with relief not horror.
    Unless Xi has gone Full Tonto, he doesn’t need to do anything. The border is virtually non-existent and Chinese companies are already doing what they like in the area. They just pay the local government(s) off (and kick back to Putin of course).

    This is vastly cheaper than any war.
    I have always thought Russia's vastness to be its vulnerability despite the Napoleonic and Hitlerian failures

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,636
    carnforth said:
    Hang on, my brain is exploding. Don't we want Farage out of the way?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,902
    If the peace deal holds until next year does it make Trump the favourite for the prize? He will definitely get nominated for it and they'd struggle to find a reason not to give it to him if there's no resumption of war or fighting between Israel and Hamas.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,636

    On MAGA/Reform/Ukraine

    Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.

    He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”

    Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.

    I'm always interested in this. Which bit of 'really, really Nazi' are they? Is it the Hugo Boss uniforms? The liking for Wagner? Holiday homes in the Alps? Or maybe the fighting of Russians.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,068
    MaxPB said:

    If the peace deal holds until next year does it make Trump the favourite for the prize? He will definitely get nominated for it and they'd struggle to find a reason not to give it to him if there's no resumption of war or fighting between Israel and Hamas.

    I find it hard to imagine that Trump will get it. After all if there were a Nobel War Prize do we think he'd not be going after that too?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,498
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    On MAGA/Reform/Ukraine

    Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.

    He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”

    Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.

    There’s a noticeable lack of confidence now, among pro-Russian bloggers.
    Reposting from 8.27:-

    ‘Massive’ Russian attack on Ukraine capital triggers blackouts and sets high-rise alight
    Powerful blasts reported in Kyiv as missiles and drones target energy infrastructure, injuring nine

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/russian-attack-kyiv-ukraine-capital-blackouts-sets-high-rise-alight

    What is more interesting is someone with a big brain sharing my conspiracy theory about China and Siberia:-

    Putin’s Real Problem Isn’t NATO (45 seconds)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elJtRqY4k-0

    And here is Rory on TRiP about the difference between China & Russia (50 seconds)
    Does Putin operate with the same kind of unpredictable or chaotic strategy that Trump is known for?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0_IRBiuMiE


    Xi is rubbing his hands at the thought of the collapse of Russia. A massive opportunity for China.
    My understanding is that the Chinese are doing what is necessary to prevent a Russian collapse. They would rather Europe and the US were preoccupied with Russia, rather than focusing on the Pacific, Taiwan and regaining strategic independence from the Chinese economy.

    Russia is so dependent on China now that they don't really have strategic autonomy, and so legal ownership of Siberia isn't necessary.

    If China was interested in the collapse of Russia they could precipitate it very quickly, by restricting certain exports to Russia and reducing fossil fuel imports from Russia.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,481

    carnforth said:
    Hang on, my brain is exploding. Don't we want Farage out of the way?
    Aside from the small moral issue of advocating assassination of democratic politicians in a democracy, there is the practical one.

    If he was murdered the result would be worse than Reform under his leadership winning. Which would be utterly fucking awful, by itself.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,636
    geoffw said:

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    On MAGA/Reform/Ukraine

    Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.

    He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”

    Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.

    There’s a noticeable lack of confidence now, among pro-Russian bloggers.
    Reposting from 8.27:-

    ‘Massive’ Russian attack on Ukraine capital triggers blackouts and sets high-rise alight
    Powerful blasts reported in Kyiv as missiles and drones target energy infrastructure, injuring nine

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/russian-attack-kyiv-ukraine-capital-blackouts-sets-high-rise-alight

    What is more interesting is someone with a big brain sharing my conspiracy theory about China and Siberia:-

    Putin’s Real Problem Isn’t NATO (45 seconds)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elJtRqY4k-0

    And here is Rory on TRiP about the difference between China & Russia (50 seconds)
    Does Putin operate with the same kind of unpredictable or chaotic strategy that Trump is known for?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0_IRBiuMiE


    Xi is rubbing his hands at the thought of the collapse of Russia. A massive opportunity for China.
    Because Putin is such a genius the Europeans will greet this with relief not horror.
    Unless Xi has gone Full Tonto, he doesn’t need to do anything. The border is virtually non-existent and Chinese companies are already doing what they like in the area. They just pay the local government(s) off (and kick back to Putin of course).

    This is vastly cheaper than any war.
    I have always thought Russia's vastness to be its vulnerability despite the Napoleonic and Hitlerian failures

    One thing I always found (grimly) fascinating about the Russian/German conflict was just how rubbish the German planning actually was. Not Hitler's interference. The actual General Staff. How did they think they were going to win?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,498
    Scott_xP said:

    @atrupar.com‬

    Hegseth: "I'm also proud that today we're signing a letter of acceptance to build a Qatari Emeri air force facility at the Mountain Home Airbase in Idaho."

    What's that about?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,498
    MaxPB said:

    If the peace deal holds until next year does it make Trump the favourite for the prize? He will definitely get nominated for it and they'd struggle to find a reason not to give it to him if there's no resumption of war or fighting between Israel and Hamas.

    If they were determined not to give Trump the prize then they might have someone else nominated who could plausibly take the credit.

    I think they may as well give Trump the peace prize next year. The purpose of the prize is to encourage people to seek peace, and he's been strongly motivated by the prize to achieve peace. It would make sense to give it to him, and then quietly say that people are eligible to receive it twice, even if that hadn't happened before, so that he might still be eligible to receive it again.

    You don't have to be a good person to receive it.

    I think Kissinger's receipt of the prize would still be much more egregious.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,420
    MaxPB said:

    If the peace deal holds until next year does it make Trump the favourite for the prize? He will definitely get nominated for it and they'd struggle to find a reason not to give it to him if there's no resumption of war or fighting between Israel and Hamas.

    If he can kick Putin’s arse, he deserves it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,947

    MaxPB said:

    If the peace deal holds until next year does it make Trump the favourite for the prize? He will definitely get nominated for it and they'd struggle to find a reason not to give it to him if there's no resumption of war or fighting between Israel and Hamas.

    If they were determined not to give Trump the prize then they might have someone else nominated who could plausibly take the credit.

    I think they may as well give Trump the peace prize next year. The purpose of the prize is to encourage people to seek peace, and he's been strongly motivated by the prize to achieve peace. It would make sense to give it to him, and then quietly say that people are eligible to receive it twice, even if that hadn't happened before, so that he might still be eligible to receive it again.

    You don't have to be a good person to receive it.

    I think Kissinger's receipt of the prize would still be much more egregious.
    The whole thing is a farce at this point. Trump only wants it because Obama got it. Why Obama got it is beyond me TBH.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,420

    Scott_xP said:

    @atrupar.com‬

    Hegseth: "I'm also proud that today we're signing a letter of acceptance to build a Qatari Emeri air force facility at the Mountain Home Airbase in Idaho."

    What's that about?
    Getting the Qataris investing in the US, and not funding Hamas.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,099
    Battlebus said:

    About those Tomahawks. Some possible targets according to the IoW




    Isle of Wight?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,947

    geoffw said:

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    On MAGA/Reform/Ukraine

    Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.

    He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”

    Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.

    There’s a noticeable lack of confidence now, among pro-Russian bloggers.
    Reposting from 8.27:-

    ‘Massive’ Russian attack on Ukraine capital triggers blackouts and sets high-rise alight
    Powerful blasts reported in Kyiv as missiles and drones target energy infrastructure, injuring nine

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/russian-attack-kyiv-ukraine-capital-blackouts-sets-high-rise-alight

    What is more interesting is someone with a big brain sharing my conspiracy theory about China and Siberia:-

    Putin’s Real Problem Isn’t NATO (45 seconds)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elJtRqY4k-0

    And here is Rory on TRiP about the difference between China & Russia (50 seconds)
    Does Putin operate with the same kind of unpredictable or chaotic strategy that Trump is known for?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0_IRBiuMiE


    Xi is rubbing his hands at the thought of the collapse of Russia. A massive opportunity for China.
    Because Putin is such a genius the Europeans will greet this with relief not horror.
    Unless Xi has gone Full Tonto, he doesn’t need to do anything. The border is virtually non-existent and Chinese companies are already doing what they like in the area. They just pay the local government(s) off (and kick back to Putin of course).

    This is vastly cheaper than any war.
    I have always thought Russia's vastness to be its vulnerability despite the Napoleonic and Hitlerian failures

    One thing I always found (grimly) fascinating about the Russian/German conflict was just how rubbish the German planning actually was. Not Hitler's interference. The actual General Staff. How did they think they were going to win?
    High on their own supply.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,420

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    On MAGA/Reform/Ukraine

    Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.

    He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”

    Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.

    There’s a noticeable lack of confidence now, among pro-Russian bloggers.
    Reposting from 8.27:-

    ‘Massive’ Russian attack on Ukraine capital triggers blackouts and sets high-rise alight
    Powerful blasts reported in Kyiv as missiles and drones target energy infrastructure, injuring nine

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/russian-attack-kyiv-ukraine-capital-blackouts-sets-high-rise-alight

    What is more interesting is someone with a big brain sharing my conspiracy theory about China and Siberia:-

    Putin’s Real Problem Isn’t NATO (45 seconds)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elJtRqY4k-0

    And here is Rory on TRiP about the difference between China & Russia (50 seconds)
    Does Putin operate with the same kind of unpredictable or chaotic strategy that Trump is known for?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0_IRBiuMiE


    Xi is rubbing his hands at the thought of the collapse of Russia. A massive opportunity for China.
    My understanding is that the Chinese are doing what is necessary to prevent a Russian collapse. They would rather Europe and the US were preoccupied with Russia, rather than focusing on the Pacific, Taiwan and regaining strategic independence from the Chinese economy.

    Russia is so dependent on China now that they don't really have strategic autonomy, and so legal ownership of Siberia isn't necessary.

    If China was interested in the collapse of Russia they could precipitate it very quickly, by restricting certain exports to Russia and reducing fossil fuel imports from Russia.
    Oh very much so. China thinks decades ahead.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,236
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foss said:

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Moderately encouraging news from Turkey.

    https://x.com/SpeechUnion/status/1976614542785270149
    MAJOR VICTORY FOR FREE SPEECH! HAMIT COSKUN WINS HIS APPEAL AGAINST ISLAMIC BLASPHEMY LAW

    The Free Speech Union is delighted that Hamit Coskun’s appeal has been successful.

    Hamit was convicted under the Public Order Act for burning a copy of the Koran during a lawful protest against the rise of political Islam and authorities in Turkey under President Erdoğan’s regime.

    The court conflated his political protest against Islam with hatred of Muslims, effectively reviving blasphemy law by the back door. It ruled his action as “disorderly” — not because of what Hamit did, but because it provoked violence against him, namely a man called Moussa Kadri slashed a knife at him and shouted “I’m going to kill you”. Kadri was spared jail time, and actions were used to prove Hamit’s guilt. Meanwhile, Hamit is forced to live in hiding due to multiple threats to his life.

    Hamit’s conviction has now been overturned. Had the verdict been allowed to stand, it would have sent a message to religious fundamentalists up and down the country that all they need to do to enforce their blasphemy codes is to violently attack the blasphemer, thereby making him or her guilty of having caused public disorder.

    Instead, the Crown Court has sent the opposite message - that anti-religious protests, however offensive to true believers, must be tolerated.

    This was in London, outside the Turkish consulate
    My apologies.
    Why wasn't this Kadri character arrested and charged ?
    He was. The judiciary decided he required nothing more than a Hard Stare.
    Just catching up on this, as I don't recall it.
    A suspended sentence of 18 months,
    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Rex-v-Moussa-Kadri.pdf

    Not quite clear what a "sharpened bread knife" is, but he seems rather fortunate not to have done a short time behind bars.
    Two tier justice. If that was a black gang member or a white far right rioter doing the same they would have got a custodial sentence. The UK has a class that the judiciary and politicians are doing their best to protect from the consequences of their own actions.
    Those sentencing remarks are absolutely vomit worthy.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,636
    DougSeal said:

    geoffw said:

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    On MAGA/Reform/Ukraine

    Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.

    He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”

    Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.

    There’s a noticeable lack of confidence now, among pro-Russian bloggers.
    Reposting from 8.27:-

    ‘Massive’ Russian attack on Ukraine capital triggers blackouts and sets high-rise alight
    Powerful blasts reported in Kyiv as missiles and drones target energy infrastructure, injuring nine

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/russian-attack-kyiv-ukraine-capital-blackouts-sets-high-rise-alight

    What is more interesting is someone with a big brain sharing my conspiracy theory about China and Siberia:-

    Putin’s Real Problem Isn’t NATO (45 seconds)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elJtRqY4k-0

    And here is Rory on TRiP about the difference between China & Russia (50 seconds)
    Does Putin operate with the same kind of unpredictable or chaotic strategy that Trump is known for?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0_IRBiuMiE


    Xi is rubbing his hands at the thought of the collapse of Russia. A massive opportunity for China.
    Because Putin is such a genius the Europeans will greet this with relief not horror.
    Unless Xi has gone Full Tonto, he doesn’t need to do anything. The border is virtually non-existent and Chinese companies are already doing what they like in the area. They just pay the local government(s) off (and kick back to Putin of course).

    This is vastly cheaper than any war.
    I have always thought Russia's vastness to be its vulnerability despite the Napoleonic and Hitlerian failures

    One thing I always found (grimly) fascinating about the Russian/German conflict was just how rubbish the German planning actually was. Not Hitler's interference. The actual General Staff. How did they think they were going to win?
    High on their own supply.
    Certainly the comparative ease of victory in France played a role, and many of the general staff were horrified at the thought of attacking in 1940.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,243
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Interesting polling. The tax cuts for millionaires thing hasn't cut through (even though that is kinda true*).

    I wonder if it's the IHT effect? People are unrealistically optimistic and think they are likely to pay these taxes even though very few of us do.

    *I personally think the policy is an excellent one from economic/housing market perspective, though the first order effect is highly regressive

    Even the average house buyer pays Stamp Duty in London and the Home Counties.

    I think this is mainly Kemi trying to save Tory seats in the all out London local elections next year and thus her job. North of Watford the Stamp Duty cut won't have much impact beyond the most expensive suburbs and villages
    Yes, it is a core core vote strategy aimed at the retired in the Stockbroker belt, but even there the yellow diamonds proliferate. Even in Berkshire the culture war stuff doesn't play well.
    I disagree. The IHT cut had the biggest impact not among those who were exposed but on those who aspired to save enough for it to be a problem. Stamp duty is the same: it cuts through because an Englishman house is his castle.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,095
    Sandpit said:

    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    This might be a story.

    Russia has started issuing military callups to residents near Moscow.

    https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1976572588852662742

    Some people are trying to flee the country to avoid, and getting stopped as they leave.

    Intreresting .. I can't read or translate the Russian text but it seems an act of desperation by Putin
    Mrs Sandpit can read Russian, and she’s laughing at it. They’ve started calling up Moscovites.
    Why haven't they been called up before? Are they all older than non-Moscovites?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,974
    This is the new Nobel Peace Prize Winner.

    "María Corina Machado
    @MariaCorinaYA

    This recognition of the struggle of all Venezuelans is a boost to conclude our task: to conquer Freedom.

    We are on the threshold of victory and today, more than ever, we count on President Trump, the people of the United States, the peoples of Latin America, and the democratic nations of the world as our principal allies to achieve Freedom and democracy.

    I dedicate this prize to the suffering people of Venezuela and to President Trump for his decisive support of our cause!"

    https://x.com/MariaCorinaYA/status/1976642376119549990
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,533

    geoffw said:

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    On MAGA/Reform/Ukraine

    Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.

    He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”

    Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.

    There’s a noticeable lack of confidence now, among pro-Russian bloggers.
    Reposting from 8.27:-

    ‘Massive’ Russian attack on Ukraine capital triggers blackouts and sets high-rise alight
    Powerful blasts reported in Kyiv as missiles and drones target energy infrastructure, injuring nine

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/russian-attack-kyiv-ukraine-capital-blackouts-sets-high-rise-alight

    What is more interesting is someone with a big brain sharing my conspiracy theory about China and Siberia:-

    Putin’s Real Problem Isn’t NATO (45 seconds)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elJtRqY4k-0

    And here is Rory on TRiP about the difference between China & Russia (50 seconds)
    Does Putin operate with the same kind of unpredictable or chaotic strategy that Trump is known for?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0_IRBiuMiE


    Xi is rubbing his hands at the thought of the collapse of Russia. A massive opportunity for China.
    Because Putin is such a genius the Europeans will greet this with relief not horror.
    Unless Xi has gone Full Tonto, he doesn’t need to do anything. The border is virtually non-existent and Chinese companies are already doing what they like in the area. They just pay the local government(s) off (and kick back to Putin of course).

    This is vastly cheaper than any war.
    I have always thought Russia's vastness to be its vulnerability despite the Napoleonic and Hitlerian failures

    One thing I always found (grimly) fascinating about the Russian/German conflict was just how rubbish the German planning actually was. Not Hitler's interference. The actual General Staff. How did they think they were going to win?
    In part it is from believing their own propaganda, in particular:

    1) German Blitzkrieg warfare and the discipline of the Wehrmacht were totally superior to any other army.

    2) The Soviet Army would collapse like a house of cards because of the intrinsic failures and unpopularity of Communism.

    To be fair, after 1939 to June 1941 the first looked a no-brainer, and the second was very nearly true.

    The warning signs were there though in the Far East, where China lost vast numbers of casualties and territory from 1937-1941, but continued the fight from the interior.

    It's always dangerous to underestimate an opponent when surrender means extinction, as we see in Putins war on Ukraine.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,243
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
    If he's losing the conspiracy nutters who else does he have? The Epstein stuff has holed him and I've also got videos of that Theo Von guy getting upset by ICE.
    You’re right on the Epstein stuff, that’s gone down really badly with the base, they were told they’d be seeing the Epstein files and they haven’t turned up. The base are pretty pissed with Pam Bondi for her comments on “hate speech” as well.

    The likes of Joe Rogan and Theo Von are both pretty centrist comics, despite them both voting for Trump last time out. They’ve both made negative comments on execution of immigration raids, while being supportive of the concept. They’re a pretty good barometer for the general feeling in the country I think.

    As for Tucker, everything he says needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt. Like so many journalists now working for himself and paid to have an opinion, he doesn’t make factual stuff up but often leaves out a lot of context, and also knows that the wildest opinions drive social media “engagement”.
    I'm not convinced by your definition of "centrist". Back in September, you described Charlie Kirk as "a middle-of-the-road conservative Christian youth movement leader". Charlie Kirk absolutely did not deserve to die, but he was racist and anti-Semitic, so it seems odd to describe him as "middle-of-the-road", as it seems odd to describe Rogan as "centrist". I suggest that you are still so deep in a MAGA social media bubble that you are struggling to discern reality.
    Oh dear.

    Rogan said he’d never voted Republican before last year, and that he voted for Obama. He’s described himself as centre-left, but said that the Democrats had gone crazy over censorship and gender stuff.

    Von is slightly to the right of Rogan, but has also described himself as pretty centrist.

    Charlie Kirk was not racist, there’s no evidence whatsoever of that.
    "You do not have the brain processing power to otherwise be taken really seriously. You had to go steal a white person’s slot to go be taken somewhat seriously."

    Charlie Kirk, The Charlie Kirk Show, 13 July 2023

    There'splenty of it, if you just look:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/sep/11/charlie-kirk-quotes-beliefs
    This one?

    https://leadstories.com/hoax-alert/2025/09/fact-check-kirk-said-four-specific-black-women-lacked-brain-processing-power.html

    Totally out of context, and referring to specific people who were saying they were diversity hires and proud of it.

    Full quote:
    If we would have said three weeks ago [...] that Joy Reid and Michelle Obama and Sheila Jackson Lee and Ketanji Brown Jackson were affirmative-action picks, we would have been called racist. But now they're comin' out and they're saying it for us! They're comin' out and they're saying, "I'm only here because of affirmative action.

    Yeah, we know. You do not have the brain processing power to otherwise be taken really seriously. You had to go steal a white person's slot to go be taken somewhat seriously.


    The internet is absolutely full of these, as there’s thousands of hours of recordings of Kirk speaking. I’ve yet to see any evidence that he was actually racist. He didn’t say that black women are stupid, he said that Joy Reid was stupid. Which she is.
    That quote also applies the same conclusion to Michelle Obama
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,099

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Aggregate Result of the 122 Council By-Elections (for 125 Seats) since the 2025 Local Elections:

    RFM: 47 (+40)
    LDM: 32 (+10)
    CON: 13 (-15)
    LAB: 12 (-30)
    GRN: 11 (+3)
    Ind: 5 (-4)
    Local: 3 (-3)
    SNP: 1 (-1)
    PLC: 1 (=)

    Explore: https://electionmaps.uk/byelections-since-le2025"

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK

    LibDems second, although that's probably just because they benefit from FPTP. (Oh, the irony of saying that.)
    Reform also benefitting from FPTP since all except Scottish by elections will be under FPTP. A good argument for moving to AV for locals.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,420

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
    If he's losing the conspiracy nutters who else does he have? The Epstein stuff has holed him and I've also got videos of that Theo Von guy getting upset by ICE.
    You’re right on the Epstein stuff, that’s gone down really badly with the base, they were told they’d be seeing the Epstein files and they haven’t turned up. The base are pretty pissed with Pam Bondi for her comments on “hate speech” as well.

    The likes of Joe Rogan and Theo Von are both pretty centrist comics, despite them both voting for Trump last time out. They’ve both made negative comments on execution of immigration raids, while being supportive of the concept. They’re a pretty good barometer for the general feeling in the country I think.

    As for Tucker, everything he says needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt. Like so many journalists now working for himself and paid to have an opinion, he doesn’t make factual stuff up but often leaves out a lot of context, and also knows that the wildest opinions drive social media “engagement”.
    I'm not convinced by your definition of "centrist". Back in September, you described Charlie Kirk as "a middle-of-the-road conservative Christian youth movement leader". Charlie Kirk absolutely did not deserve to die, but he was racist and anti-Semitic, so it seems odd to describe him as "middle-of-the-road", as it seems odd to describe Rogan as "centrist". I suggest that you are still so deep in a MAGA social media bubble that you are struggling to discern reality.
    Oh dear.

    Rogan said he’d never voted Republican before last year, and that he voted for Obama. He’s described himself as centre-left, but said that the Democrats had gone crazy over censorship and gender stuff.

    Von is slightly to the right of Rogan, but has also described himself as pretty centrist.

    Charlie Kirk was not racist, there’s no evidence whatsoever of that.
    "You do not have the brain processing power to otherwise be taken really seriously. You had to go steal a white person’s slot to go be taken somewhat seriously."

    Charlie Kirk, The Charlie Kirk Show, 13 July 2023

    There'splenty of it, if you just look:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/sep/11/charlie-kirk-quotes-beliefs
    This one?

    https://leadstories.com/hoax-alert/2025/09/fact-check-kirk-said-four-specific-black-women-lacked-brain-processing-power.html

    Totally out of context, and referring to specific people who were saying they were diversity hires and proud of it.

    Full quote:
    If we would have said three weeks ago [...] that Joy Reid and Michelle Obama and Sheila Jackson Lee and Ketanji Brown Jackson were affirmative-action picks, we would have been called racist. But now they're comin' out and they're saying it for us! They're comin' out and they're saying, "I'm only here because of affirmative action.

    Yeah, we know. You do not have the brain processing power to otherwise be taken really seriously. You had to go steal a white person's slot to go be taken somewhat seriously.


    The internet is absolutely full of these, as there’s thousands of hours of recordings of Kirk speaking. I’ve yet to see any evidence that he was actually racist. He didn’t say that black women are stupid, he said that Joy Reid was stupid. Which she is.
    That quote also applies the same conclusion to Michelle Obama
    Following on from Mrs Obama’s own remarks.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,533
    Andy_JS said:

    This is the new Nobel Peace Prize Winner.

    "María Corina Machado
    @MariaCorinaYA

    This recognition of the struggle of all Venezuelans is a boost to conclude our task: to conquer Freedom.

    We are on the threshold of victory and today, more than ever, we count on President Trump, the people of the United States, the peoples of Latin America, and the democratic nations of the world as our principal allies to achieve Freedom and democracy.

    I dedicate this prize to the suffering people of Venezuela and to President Trump for his decisive support of our cause!"

    https://x.com/MariaCorinaYA/status/1976642376119549990

    Very wise of her to give Trump the credit.

    He is prone to jealousy.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,484
    Andy_JS said:

    This is the new Nobel Peace Prize Winner.

    "María Corina Machado
    @MariaCorinaYA

    This recognition of the struggle of all Venezuelans is a boost to conclude our task: to conquer Freedom.

    We are on the threshold of victory and today, more than ever, we count on President Trump, the people of the United States, the peoples of Latin America, and the democratic nations of the world as our principal allies to achieve Freedom and democracy.

    I dedicate this prize to the suffering people of Venezuela and to President Trump for his decisive support of our cause!"

    https://x.com/MariaCorinaYA/status/1976642376119549990

    Conquer Freedom? Something lost in translation I imagine, though I’m sure Trump would be a worthy ally in that task.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,099
    AnneJGP said:

    Sandpit said:

    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    This might be a story.

    Russia has started issuing military callups to residents near Moscow.

    https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1976572588852662742

    Some people are trying to flee the country to avoid, and getting stopped as they leave.

    Intreresting .. I can't read or translate the Russian text but it seems an act of desperation by Putin
    Mrs Sandpit can read Russian, and she’s laughing at it. They’ve started calling up Moscovites.
    Why haven't they been called up before? Are they all older than non-Moscovites?
    Because they have more political clout than people in far off eastern oblasts
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,628
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    If the peace deal holds until next year does it make Trump the favourite for the prize? He will definitely get nominated for it and they'd struggle to find a reason not to give it to him if there's no resumption of war or fighting between Israel and Hamas.

    If he can kick Putin’s arse, he deserves it.
    Do you get the Peace Prize for kicking arses?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,481
    Foxy said:

    geoffw said:

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    On MAGA/Reform/Ukraine

    Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.

    He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”

    Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.

    There’s a noticeable lack of confidence now, among pro-Russian bloggers.
    Reposting from 8.27:-

    ‘Massive’ Russian attack on Ukraine capital triggers blackouts and sets high-rise alight
    Powerful blasts reported in Kyiv as missiles and drones target energy infrastructure, injuring nine

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/russian-attack-kyiv-ukraine-capital-blackouts-sets-high-rise-alight

    What is more interesting is someone with a big brain sharing my conspiracy theory about China and Siberia:-

    Putin’s Real Problem Isn’t NATO (45 seconds)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elJtRqY4k-0

    And here is Rory on TRiP about the difference between China & Russia (50 seconds)
    Does Putin operate with the same kind of unpredictable or chaotic strategy that Trump is known for?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0_IRBiuMiE


    Xi is rubbing his hands at the thought of the collapse of Russia. A massive opportunity for China.
    Because Putin is such a genius the Europeans will greet this with relief not horror.
    Unless Xi has gone Full Tonto, he doesn’t need to do anything. The border is virtually non-existent and Chinese companies are already doing what they like in the area. They just pay the local government(s) off (and kick back to Putin of course).

    This is vastly cheaper than any war.
    I have always thought Russia's vastness to be its vulnerability despite the Napoleonic and Hitlerian failures

    One thing I always found (grimly) fascinating about the Russian/German conflict was just how rubbish the German planning actually was. Not Hitler's interference. The actual General Staff. How did they think they were going to win?
    In part it is from believing their own propaganda, in particular:

    1) German Blitzkrieg warfare and the discipline of the Wehrmacht were totally superior to any other army.

    2) The Soviet Army would collapse like a house of cards because of the intrinsic failures and unpopularity of Communism.

    To be fair, after 1939 to June 1941 the first looked a no-brainer, and the second was very nearly true.

    The warning signs were there though in the Far East, where China lost vast numbers of casualties and territory from 1937-1941, but continued the fight from the interior.

    It's always dangerous to underestimate an opponent when surrender means extinction, as we see in Putins war on Ukraine.
    Like the Japanese, they ignored the logistics pyramid - the further you go, the more you are spending effort on refuelling the transports that carry the fuel etc.

    The Japanese couldn't have invaded and held Hawaii, even if the entire US Navy had gone for lunch.

    Similarly, the German military couldn't take and hold Moscow. Even with a lot of "living off the land" - also kn own as robbing the locals and letting them starve to death.
  • NEW THREAD

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,243
    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    Hope Zack makes it to the debates, will be lots of laughs...

    https://x.com/ShahrarAli/status/1976549522924081194

    The Reform accounts are going hard on Polanski and the trans issue, seeing it as a weak point, where he looks less straightforward.

    I'm not sure that'll work, thoigh, because most people have material priorities. If he looks like the only left alternative and YourParty is still in the doldrums, it won't be the central issue.
    Your party held a rally last night and Zarah Sultana apologised profusely for the membership cock up.

    Surely Your Party is dead in the water now as the Greens have stolen a march on them.

    They’re probably better merging and the Greens going all in on Corbyn style hard left politics. Gaza/Trans/Landlordism/wealth tax etc etc.

    It will alienate the Home Counties greens but they will reap dividends in the inner cities.
    Sultana wants to leave NATO on the grounds that it's imperialist.

    Curiously she's never said that about Russia.
    To be fair to her, we’re not part of Russia at the moment
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,420
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    If the peace deal holds until next year does it make Trump the favourite for the prize? He will definitely get nominated for it and they'd struggle to find a reason not to give it to him if there's no resumption of war or fighting between Israel and Hamas.

    If he can kick Putin’s arse, he deserves it.
    Do you get the Peace Prize for kicking arses?
    Well the only way the war in Ukraine is ending, is if Putin gets his arse kicked.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,589
    Seen elsewhere

    Obama “Hey Donald do you want to hear a joke?”

    Trump “Yeah sure Barrack.”

    Obama “Nobel Peace Prize.”

    Trump “I don’t get it.”

    Obama “Damn right you don’t, bitch!”
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,243

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good, you cannot have any Tom, Dick, or Mary being able to walk in.

    JPMorgan requiring biometric data for staff access to new headquarters

    New York bank is imposing eye and fingerprint scans amid heightened security concerns at corporate offices


    JPMorgan Chase has told staff moving into the US bank’s new multibillion-dollar Manhattan headquarters they must share their biometric data to access the building, overriding a prior plan for voluntary enrolment.

    Employees who have started work at its 270 Park Avenue skyscraper since August have received emails saying biometric access is “required”, according to a communication seen by the Financial Times. This allows people to scan their fingerprints or eye instead of ID badges to get through the lobby security gates.

    JPMorgan declined to comment. The bank’s headquarters, which cost a reported $3bn, will eventually house about 10,000 employees once it is fully open later this year.

    The goal is to make access to the building more secure and convenient. There are exemptions for some employees who can still use their badge to enter the building, though it was not clear who would receive them.

    It comes amid heightened security concerns across corporate offices in New York following a deadly shooting at 345 Park Avenue in July, a few blocks up the street from JPMorgan’s offices.


    https://www.ft.com/content/d5351d3d-d64f-4a90-a3da-d1ef8e8bea66

    Charlie Javice just went to jail for seven years for defrauding them of $175m.
    Plus expenses,

    Because of a clause in the M&A docs, JPM has to pick up Charlie Javice’s legal bill for defrauding them. She’s run up $115M in bills. Absolutely incredible.
    https://x.com/yrechtman/status/1976320602043724015
    $115 million for lawyers is an utter bargain.
    JPM had to pay their own lawyers another $175m in the same case.
    This story brings some real joy into the world.

    $280 million for lawyers, what's not to love?
    We all love lawyers who can’t add up their own bills.
    My favourite case I was ever involved with was two businessmen who set up their own joint venture.

    Businessman 1 provided the sales whilst businessman 2 provided the accounts/admin.

    They had a major falling out, businessman 1 sued the bank for paying out cheques that weren't to mandate, bank brought in businessman 2 as a part 20 defendant.

    The cheques were for legitimate services and some of them paid businessman 1 and his businesses but crucially most weren't to mandate (any payments over £25,000 needed two signatories and most of them had only one).

    The total payments came to around £600,000 but neither side wanted to back down, the legal costs came to over £2 million as the dispute lasted years.
    The bank’s at fault there
    The courts eventually ruled for the bank and businessman 2 on the basis that the payments were legitimate and businessman 1 was aware of cheques above £25,000 being issued with one signature due to regular management information and he’d created an estoppel by convention by receiving and banking cheques that weren’t to mandate.
    If he was aware and didn’t intervene then yes he was at fault too. But the bank’s wouldn’t have known that was the case.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,241

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Aggregate Result of the 122 Council By-Elections (for 125 Seats) since the 2025 Local Elections:

    RFM: 47 (+40)
    LDM: 32 (+10)
    CON: 13 (-15)
    LAB: 12 (-30)
    GRN: 11 (+3)
    Ind: 5 (-4)
    Local: 3 (-3)
    SNP: 1 (-1)
    PLC: 1 (=)

    Explore: https://electionmaps.uk/byelections-since-le2025"

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK

    They are horrific numbers for Labour.
    How about this. In a by-election on Newhaven Town Council the Lab vote was 39 - down from 429 the last time.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,974
    edited October 10
    edit
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,628
    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    If the peace deal holds until next year does it make Trump the favourite for the prize? He will definitely get nominated for it and they'd struggle to find a reason not to give it to him if there's no resumption of war or fighting between Israel and Hamas.

    If they were determined not to give Trump the prize then they might have someone else nominated who could plausibly take the credit.

    I think they may as well give Trump the peace prize next year. The purpose of the prize is to encourage people to seek peace, and he's been strongly motivated by the prize to achieve peace. It would make sense to give it to him, and then quietly say that people are eligible to receive it twice, even if that hadn't happened before, so that he might still be eligible to receive it again.

    You don't have to be a good person to receive it.

    I think Kissinger's receipt of the prize would still be much more egregious.
    The whole thing is a farce at this point. Trump only wants it because Obama got it. Why Obama got it is beyond me TBH.
    Four Democratic US presidents have received the prize. Wilson, Roosevelt, Carter, Obama. No Republican president ever has.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 35,032
    Melania reunited 8 Ukrainian children with their families after Trump hands her letter to Putin (presumably in Alaska) .

    Nobel Peace Prize incoming?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,243
    Nigelb said:

    Moderately encouraging news from Turkey.

    https://x.com/SpeechUnion/status/1976614542785270149
    MAJOR VICTORY FOR FREE SPEECH! HAMIT COSKUN WINS HIS APPEAL AGAINST ISLAMIC BLASPHEMY LAW

    The Free Speech Union is delighted that Hamit Coskun’s appeal has been successful.

    Hamit was convicted under the Public Order Act for burning a copy of the Koran during a lawful protest against the rise of political Islam and authorities in Turkey under President Erdoğan’s regime.

    The court conflated his political protest against Islam with hatred of Muslims, effectively reviving blasphemy law by the back door. It ruled his action as “disorderly” — not because of what Hamit did, but because it provoked violence against him, namely a man called Moussa Kadri slashed a knife at him and shouted “I’m going to kill you”. Kadri was spared jail time, and actions were used to prove Hamit’s guilt. Meanwhile, Hamit is forced to live in hiding due to multiple threats to his life.

    Hamit’s conviction has now been overturned. Had the verdict been allowed to stand, it would have sent a message to religious fundamentalists up and down the country that all they need to do to enforce their blasphemy codes is to violently attack the blasphemer, thereby making him or her guilty of having caused public disorder.

    Instead, the Crown Court has sent the opposite message - that anti-religious protests, however offensive to true believers, must be tolerated.

    From the UK…
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,243
    Scott_xP said:

    @atrupar.com‬

    Hegseth: "I'm also proud that today we're signing a letter of acceptance to build a Qatari Emeri air force facility at the Mountain Home Airbase in Idaho."

    Why would the Qatari’s need an air force facility in Idaho? And who’s going to win the construction contract?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,628
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    If the peace deal holds until next year does it make Trump the favourite for the prize? He will definitely get nominated for it and they'd struggle to find a reason not to give it to him if there's no resumption of war or fighting between Israel and Hamas.

    If he can kick Putin’s arse, he deserves it.
    Do you get the Peace Prize for kicking arses?
    Well the only way the war in Ukraine is ending, is if Putin gets his arse kicked.
    Could well be. But I don't think "bringing peace" in the Nobel sense means ending a conflict by means of outright victory in battle.

    Course if by kicking arse we mean using US leverage to force an aggressor to stop the killing and withdraw (like he's belatedly but rightly done with Netanyahu) then absolutely yes. Here's hoping.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,243
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.

    Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:

    - Abolish the First Amendment
    - Round up Americans
    - And Nazify the country

    Yes, Tucker said that.
    And for once… he’s not wrong.

    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151

    So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
    If he's losing the conspiracy nutters who else does he have? The Epstein stuff has holed him and I've also got videos of that Theo Von guy getting upset by ICE.
    You’re right on the Epstein stuff, that’s gone down really badly with the base, they were told they’d be seeing the Epstein files and they haven’t turned up. The base are pretty pissed with Pam Bondi for her comments on “hate speech” as well.

    The likes of Joe Rogan and Theo Von are both pretty centrist comics, despite them both voting for Trump last time out. They’ve both made negative comments on execution of immigration raids, while being supportive of the concept. They’re a pretty good barometer for the general feeling in the country I think.

    As for Tucker, everything he says needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt. Like so many journalists now working for himself and paid to have an opinion, he doesn’t make factual stuff up but often leaves out a lot of context, and also knows that the wildest opinions drive social media “engagement”.
    I'm not convinced by your definition of "centrist". Back in September, you described Charlie Kirk as "a middle-of-the-road conservative Christian youth movement leader". Charlie Kirk absolutely did not deserve to die, but he was racist and anti-Semitic, so it seems odd to describe him as "middle-of-the-road", as it seems odd to describe Rogan as "centrist". I suggest that you are still so deep in a MAGA social media bubble that you are struggling to discern reality.
    Oh dear.

    Rogan said he’d never voted Republican before last year, and that he voted for Obama. He’s described himself as centre-left, but said that the Democrats had gone crazy over censorship and gender stuff.

    Von is slightly to the right of Rogan, but has also described himself as pretty centrist.

    Charlie Kirk was not racist, there’s no evidence whatsoever of that.
    "You do not have the brain processing power to otherwise be taken really seriously. You had to go steal a white person’s slot to go be taken somewhat seriously."

    Charlie Kirk, The Charlie Kirk Show, 13 July 2023

    There'splenty of it, if you just look:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/sep/11/charlie-kirk-quotes-beliefs
    This one?

    https://leadstories.com/hoax-alert/2025/09/fact-check-kirk-said-four-specific-black-women-lacked-brain-processing-power.html

    Totally out of context, and referring to specific people who were saying they were diversity hires and proud of it.

    Full quote:
    If we would have said three weeks ago [...] that Joy Reid and Michelle Obama and Sheila Jackson Lee and Ketanji Brown Jackson were affirmative-action picks, we would have been called racist. But now they're comin' out and they're saying it for us! They're comin' out and they're saying, "I'm only here because of affirmative action.

    Yeah, we know. You do not have the brain processing power to otherwise be taken really seriously. You had to go steal a white person's slot to go be taken somewhat seriously.


    The internet is absolutely full of these, as there’s thousands of hours of recordings of Kirk speaking. I’ve yet to see any evidence that he was actually racist. He didn’t say that black women are stupid, he said that Joy Reid was stupid. Which she is.
    That quote also applies the same conclusion to Michelle Obama
    Following on from Mrs Obama’s own remarks.
    Please provide a link. Because the results of my google search don’t support your case

    The former first lady recalled her experience as one of the few Black students on campus during her undergraduate years at Princeton University, explaining that she sometimes questioned if people assumed she had only been accepted because of affirmative action policies. But over time, she said, she and other students of color showed that they, too, belonged in elite academic environments. While the policy of affirmative action “wasn’t perfect,” she wrote, it helped provide “new ladders of opportunity for those who, throughout our history, have too often been denied a chance to show how fast they can climb.”

    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/29/michelle-obama-affirmative-action-00104211
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,544
    Off topic, but possibly of interest to some frequent commenters -- as well as the moderators: There is an American site, Patterico's Pontifications, that, once a week, has an "Open Thread", where commenters can choose their own subjects. (I think that helps keep the other threads more on topic.)

    Here's the latest example: https://patterico.com/2025/10/10/weekend-open-thread-297/

    There is a minor difference in terminology; the site has "posts" and "comments", rather than "headers" and "posts".

    (For the record: I comment there from time to time. And sometimes copy a comment from there to this site.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,481

    Scott_xP said:

    @atrupar.com‬

    Hegseth: "I'm also proud that today we're signing a letter of acceptance to build a Qatari Emeri air force facility at the Mountain Home Airbase in Idaho."

    Why would the Qatari’s need an air force facility in Idaho? And who’s going to win the construction contract?
    Training on US aircraft and selling them stuff. At a guess.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,842

    Scott_xP said:

    @atrupar.com‬

    Hegseth: "I'm also proud that today we're signing a letter of acceptance to build a Qatari Emeri air force facility at the Mountain Home Airbase in Idaho."

    Why would the Qatari’s need an air force facility in Idaho? And who’s going to win the construction contract?
    Training, on something bought from the Usonians, is the obvious answer. There's a USAF F-15 training squadron assigned to RSAF trainees; presumably the Qataris are going to be trained in some such arrangement as the Singaporeans.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,889
    edited October 10
    AnneJGP said:

    Sandpit said:

    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    This might be a story.

    Russia has started issuing military callups to residents near Moscow.

    https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1976572588852662742

    Some people are trying to flee the country to avoid, and getting stopped as they leave.

    Intreresting .. I can't read or translate the Russian text but it seems an act of desperation by Putin
    Mrs Sandpit can read Russian, and she’s laughing at it. They’ve started calling up Moscovites.
    Why haven't they been called up before? Are they all older than non-Moscovites?
    Putin has held off calling up Russians in European Russia and mostly fought the war with the poorer nationalities from the North Caucasus, the Urals and Siberia, such as Bashkirs, Chechens and Dagestanis- but now at least a quarter of all Bashkir men between 20 and 30 are probably dead. Previously he dared not call up Russians for fear of unrest in Moscow that could challenge his rule. Dagestanis are not a threat, Russians are, especially in Moscow..

    Russians no longer think they have a future, so Putin feels safer calling them up- however this also reflects the unbelievable losses that they have taken, more casualties in three years fighting in Ukraine than the entire British casualties of the Second World War. At one level the Russians take a certain pride in this disaster- "we're so tough we can take this and still keep fighting". At another level, its becoming all a bit Black Knight- a borderline suicide pact that allows VVP to get away with giving Siberia away to the Chinese and pretending that Russia is a Great Power and not, as is increasingly obvious, Nigeria with Nukes.

    The Russians are all out of armour- like none left- between a quarter and half their strategic nuclear strike force is in bits, the Russian navy is completely defensive but still being struck, even in the Baltic. They make tiny advances on the 10 mile deep front across the Donbas at the costs of tens of thousands of casualties Even despite this, VVP could have done a deal with Trump, but by basically flipping off Trump in Alaska, Putin has probably made his last mistake. The Russians thought that DJT would keep folding, but he now has bigger fish to fry and Putin has nothing to buy a deal with, when the Ukrainians have trashed the Russian oil and gas system. What was once a defensive strength- the huge size of Russia- is now a defensive weakness, since drones can attack anywhere and Russia cannot defend the huge airspace.

    The provocations of NATO are not working and threat response is now much higher, so things like the shadow fleet are now being hunted down. Closing Airports like CPH and attempting to bomb cargo planes flying from Birmingham, Leipzig and Warsaw also really pissed off NATO.

    Meanwhile the Russian economy just stalled and Putin is running out of time. If he cant make something stick within a few months the regime is on its ass, hence the call up. Its probably too late, and the mood music in Moscow is turning very ugly.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,842
    This thread has won the Nobel Darwin Prize.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,544
    "Four Democratic US presidents have received the prize. Wilson, Roosevelt, Carter, Obama. No Republican president ever has."

    Republican Teddy Roosevelt won the prize for helping end the war between Japan and imperial Russia.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,283

    geoffw said:

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    On MAGA/Reform/Ukraine

    Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.

    He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”

    Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.

    There’s a noticeable lack of confidence now, among pro-Russian bloggers.
    Reposting from 8.27:-

    ‘Massive’ Russian attack on Ukraine capital triggers blackouts and sets high-rise alight
    Powerful blasts reported in Kyiv as missiles and drones target energy infrastructure, injuring nine

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/russian-attack-kyiv-ukraine-capital-blackouts-sets-high-rise-alight

    What is more interesting is someone with a big brain sharing my conspiracy theory about China and Siberia:-

    Putin’s Real Problem Isn’t NATO (45 seconds)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elJtRqY4k-0

    And here is Rory on TRiP about the difference between China & Russia (50 seconds)
    Does Putin operate with the same kind of unpredictable or chaotic strategy that Trump is known for?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0_IRBiuMiE


    Xi is rubbing his hands at the thought of the collapse of Russia. A massive opportunity for China.
    Because Putin is such a genius the Europeans will greet this with relief not horror.
    Unless Xi has gone Full Tonto, he doesn’t need to do anything. The border is virtually non-existent and Chinese companies are already doing what they like in the area. They just pay the local government(s) off (and kick back to Putin of course).

    This is vastly cheaper than any war.
    I have always thought Russia's vastness to be its vulnerability despite the Napoleonic and Hitlerian failures

    One thing I always found (grimly) fascinating about the Russian/German conflict was just how rubbish the German planning actually was. Not Hitler's interference. The actual General Staff. How did they think they were going to win?
    Germany declared war on America. How was that ever going to work? The Luftwaffe had no 4-engined bombers that could cross the Atlantic; the Kriegsmarine had barely any surface ships left. Hitler might as well have declared war against the moon, except that unlike the moon, America could and eventually did come to Germany.

    Of course, the real turning point of the war was the Battle of Britain. Again there was no real plan; Sealion was a sketch on the back of a fag packet. After that Hitler closed his eyes and hoped we'd go away.

    The counter-example to all this was France. There is no way France should have fallen to blitzkrieg with its larger army, navy and air force. France, which had held out against Germany from 1914 to 1918, crumbling in just six weeks convinced the Nazis they were invincible.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,087
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    rcs1000 said:

    » show previous quotes
    You know, I went to a lot of trouble with that comment.

    Philistines.

    Moral is don't buy cheap towels

    Morning, Malky, how's the weather? Sunny over in the east. Skeins of geese overhead, the dippers have moved down from the hills into the burn behind the supermarket, and the rowans, cotoneasters, roses, and hawthorns in the garden red with berries. Winter coming.
    @carnyx apologies I disappeared for work. Not bad here at all today , getting colder and as you say the geese are flying overhead. Heating on nowadays.
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