But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
On the other hand, Mamdani has an astonishingly attractive wife.
So it is claimed but I demur. As others on X have pointed out she is quite “mid”. Whereas he is a strikingly handsome man. He could do better
Meh. Sir, you have no taste. No true appreciation.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Noting the speed and vehemence with which Leon has been deployed to smear him (before lunch even!), suggests optimism about his potential term as Mayor.
Though 2005 is only 20 years ago and there could strong independent candidates, so it may not be a Dem shoo-in.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
Young people are going hard left over stagnant wages, student debt and not enough affordable homes, middle aged people are going hard nationalist right over immigration, pensioners tend to be most centrist ironically eg Carney and Macron and May won their highest voteshare with over 65s and Harris tied Trump with pensioners and Reform do best with 50-60 year olds not over 65s
St James's Park is gonna be a huge building site. Hope the pelicans and other birds will be housed safely!
Glass bridge at nationally sensitive site easily accessible in the dark at a time when the Royal Parks Police have been disbanded. I can't begin to imagine anything could go wrong.
Who'd have thought these test tube grown mouthers of meaninglessness would be bad at persuading even their own colleagues of stuff?
Saul Staniforth @SaulStaniforth "Yesterday you had almost every cabinet minister drafted in by Downing Street to get on the phone or hold meetings with Labour rebels & potential rebels & urge them to back down, to take their names off that wrecking amendment. And the effect is that things have only got worse"
Even if we do need to reduce the lead swingers welfare bill by £5b a year the way this Government have gone about it couldn't look worse. If it looks like performative cruelty against society's most vulnerable it probably is performative cruelty against society's vulnerable. The Labour rebels should take this to the brink. If Starmer falls, Starmer falls.
The oft repeated rebuttals to criticism of this is that 'we are the party of work, we believe people should not be left on the scrapheap, work is good for people', etc etc. In fact I strongly believe that a shitload of resources should be flung at the long-term unemployed and sick to help (emphasis on help) them back to some sort of independent working life, but is there any such programme attached to this anti skivers bill? If there is I've missed it.
You are absolutely correct. That is why this bill is both absurd and cruel.
However the Conservatives by using the bill as a weapon to damage Starmer, and in the way they are doing so, demonstrates they are wholly unserious people. Badenoch offering to support the bill on the provisional that there will be NO future tax rises amplified this notion.
Re your last paragraph, on the contrary Badenoch is playing the role of opposition perfectly on this
It's how politics works even if it upsets you
My point was welfare reform should be taken seriously. On their part this Government are at least taking it seriously even if their prescription is wholly wrong.
Your leader merely sees a political point scoring angle. Don't forget your party got us into this mess. Surely getting the policy right and opposing Government cruelty should be more important than winning Smartie points off Starmer.
Covid legacy has seen a huge change in benefit claims and wide scale reform is needed on who qualifies for free NHS and pension entitlements is inevitable
No party has even started to address the economic car crash coming down the line
If those numbers hold, as the election approaches, I'd expect that a lot of centre left/left votes would gravitate to Labour. But, it would be goodnight for the Conservatives. If they're 10%+ behind Reform, people won't be switching back to them from Reform, and it's more likely that voters would go in the other direction.
Still a long time until the election (though I note Epping Forest is the only Tory seat left in Essex on that MRP poll and 29 Tory seats would still be more than the LDs had from 2015-2024) but yes LD and Green voters would likely tactically vote Labour in marginal Labour held seats.
Also could be a new Tory leader eg Jenrick or Cleverly by the end of next year
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
On the other hand, Mamdani has an astonishingly attractive wife.
So it is claimed but I demur. As others on X have pointed out she is quite “mid”. Whereas he is a strikingly handsome man. He could do better
Meh. Sir, you have no taste. No true appreciation.
She’s one of those women where I can see WHY other men find her attractive - and yet I absolutely do not. Too tall, angular and dorky
Eurostar has been hit with further delays after nearly half a mile of cables were vandalised in northern France. The country’s railway operator said more than 600 metres of line had been “stolen or severed” south of Lille.
Again.
Thefts like this increase when the price of copper starts to increase. Not quite at a high but getting pretty close.
Will be taking the Eurostar to Lille at the end of August so will be watching in case I need to change plans.
St James's Park is gonna be a huge building site. Hope the pelicans and other birds will be housed safely!
Glass bridge at nationally sensitive site easily accessible in the dark at a time when the Royal Parks Police have been disbanded. I can't begin to imagine anything could go wrong.
I'd prefer Green Park TBH, which I think was also more used by the Royal Family.
That's where my cousin used to walk the dog when he was living at Buck House.
If those numbers hold, as the election approaches, I'd expect that a lot of centre left/left votes would gravitate to Labour. But, it would be goodnight for the Conservatives. If they're 10%+ behind Reform, people won't be switching back to them from Reform, and it's more likely that voters would go in the other direction.
Still a long time until the election (though I note Epping Forest is the only Tory seat left in Essex on that MRP poll and 29 Tory seats would still be more than the LDs had from 2015-2024) but yes LD and Green voters would likely tactically vote Labour in marginal Labour held seats.
Also could be a new Tory leader eg Jenrick or Cleverly by the end of next year
There could be a new Labour Leader in waiting by next Wednesday!
Extraordinary spectacle here at NATO. Trump isn't being treated by Rutte and fellow leaders as a partner and fellow head of govt, but rather a sort of world king with themselves relegated as courtiers. Probably the only thing they can do in the circs, but deeply weird.
Extraordinary spectacle here at NATO. Trump isn't being treated by Rutte and fellow leaders as a partner and fellow head of govt, but rather a sort of world king with themselves relegated as courtiers. Probably the only thing they can do in the circs, but deeply weird.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
On the other hand, Mamdani has an astonishingly attractive wife.
So it is claimed but I demur. As others on X have pointed out she is quite “mid”. Whereas he is a strikingly handsome man. He could do better
Meh. Sir, you have no taste. No true appreciation.
She’s one of those women where I can see WHY other men find her attractive - and yet I absolutely do not. Too tall, angular and dorky
Extraordinary spectacle here at NATO. Trump isn't being treated by Rutte and fellow leaders as a partner and fellow head of govt, but rather a sort of world king with themselves relegated as courtiers. Probably the only thing they can do in the circs, but deeply weird.
The statue of HMQ & DofE seems to miss the point. What matters is she was the Queen, Head of State, not just half a happily-married couple. The horsey one seems more about the horse than its rider.
The tiara bridge is hard to judge from that picture but for many, tiaras recall Princess Diana rather than her mother-in-law. I wonder if it is a project that has been waiting for a justification. That said, it might be visually attractive or blinding depending how it reflects light.
Extraordinary spectacle here at NATO. Trump isn't being treated by Rutte and fellow leaders as a partner and fellow head of govt, but rather a sort of world king with themselves relegated as courtiers. Probably the only thing they can do in the circs, but deeply weird.
That reaffirms my earlier comment of the embarrassing fawning by Rutte at Trump this morning
Eurostar has been hit with further delays after nearly half a mile of cables were vandalised in northern France. The country’s railway operator said more than 600 metres of line had been “stolen or severed” south of Lille.
Again.
Thefts like this increase when the price of copper starts to increase. Not quite at a high but getting pretty close.
Will be taking the Eurostar to Lille at the end of August so will be watching in case I need to change plans.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
There's no "of course". If he sticks to all of the out there policies which he's floated, then I agree it's very likely indeed.
But I think he'll have to have at least a a couple of weeks in office before we know for sure.
He seems to be something of a protean character. Perhaps that will extend to being a trimmer ?
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Labour both insisting they are ploughing on with the welfare bill and briefing they'll have to pull it. Strong leadership. 2024 intake prepared to go on record on national media that they are prepared to lose the whip and that 'no confidence' isnt the threat he thinks it is. Weaker than the last days of Boris or May
Extraordinary spectacle here at NATO. Trump isn't being treated by Rutte and fellow leaders as a partner and fellow head of govt, but rather a sort of world king with themselves relegated as courtiers. Probably the only thing they can do in the circs, but deeply weird.
That reaffirms my earlier comment of the embarrassing fawning by Rutte at Trump this morning
If Europe is to spend lots more on defence, we ought at least use some of that to buy a degree of independence from a highly unreliable US.
The statue of HMQ & DofE seems to miss the point. What matters is she was the Queen, Head of State, not just half a happily-married couple. The horsey one seems more about the horse than its rider.
The tiara bridge is hard to judge from that picture but for many, tiaras recall Princess Diana rather than her mother-in-law. I wonder if it is a project that has been waiting for a justification. That said, it might be visually attractive or blinding depending how it reflects light.
I think it needs to be about far more than the institution.
Foster is a safe choice I think; I can't think of a bad scheme of his that I have seen.
Labour both insisting they are ploughing on with the welfare bill and briefing they'll have to pull it. Strong leadership. 2024 intake prepared to go on record on national media that they are prepared to lose the whip and that 'no confidence' isnt the threat he thinks it is. Weaker than the last days of Boris or May
Remember Hammond & May caving on the self employed NI thing, they'd bottle everything else. Same with Starmer and winter fuel. Individual Labour MPs must be able to smell the weakness from a mile off.
As some of you may know, I have a nerdish interest in local government Councillors who defect from one party to another. In my opinion it says more about the state of political parties than local government by elections. If anyone else is interested, my latest jottings on the subject can be found here, in a guest article for the Liberal England website -
Management Summary - 1.26% of elected Conservative Councillors have defected from the party since the local elections in May.
A very interesting article - a large number of defections since May, including from the Labour Party. I suppose this reflects the low standing in the opinion polls shown by both Labour and Conservatives. So perhaaps not all that surprising.
You ate probably right, but I remain surprised at the number of defections. Unfortunately, I only have the figures for the last couple of years, so it's not possible to be too emphatic, but it does seem that the numbers are increasing.
The Conservatives still have 2000 District Councillors in England but that will reduce with local Government reorganisation (it will impact the LDs as well) and 466 "County" Councillors including in authorities which will cease to exist in the next two or three years.
Indeed. But I am not concerning myself with the absolute number of councillors, just the attrition rate caused by defections, and what those defections might mean. Sadly, this subject doesn't seem to get the attention it deserves from political analysts. In all probability a defecting councillor handicaps the next Parliamentary campaign by removing an activist with detailed knowledge of (at least) one ward. They may also take their families and friends with them. That's a fair number of leaflets undelivered, doors un-canvassed and posters not displayed. Maybe even financial donations not made. If the election is fought mainly as an "air war", then it may not be relevant, but if the "ground war" is still important (and I think it is) then defecting councillors can be a significant hindrance to a Parliamentary campaign.
I think that's right. Nevertheless have been a little surprised that (so far) the Con ranks at Westminster and devolved level have remained pretty solid despite everything. And Labour haven't lost any MPs to other parties, tho some sit as Indies. The Tories did lose an MSP (to the LibDems) at Holyrood but that was mainly down to his pro-trans views and that he had no chance of being re-selected.
Fuck me, I'd missed the SCon-SLD defection! I'd say I'm more than averagely interested in politics so that probably says a lot about the SCons and SLDs. Still, at least the SCons still have Russell 'In Liz we Trust' Findlay at the helm.
You need to pay more attention! I thought you of all people would have seen that!!
Jamie Greene MSP. Possibly best known for the highlights in his beard.
@Theuniondivvie Talking of all this, Ross Thomson has defected.
Inevitable, I suspect. An outlier in SCon terms - v rightwing and Brexity. And crashed and burned as an MP. Probably fancies his chances as a Reform list MSP, like some of the Aberdeenshire councillors.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Noting the speed and vehemence with which Leon has been deployed to smear him (before lunch even!), suggests optimism about his potential term as Mayor.
Though 2005 is only 20 years ago and there could strong independent candidates, so it may not be a Dem shoo-in.
Extraordinary spectacle here at NATO. Trump isn't being treated by Rutte and fellow leaders as a partner and fellow head of govt, but rather a sort of world king with themselves relegated as courtiers. Probably the only thing they can do in the circs, but deeply weird.
That reaffirms my earlier comment of the embarrassing fawning by Rutte at Trump this morning
Yes, in a sense it's admirably unselfish to be eating the humiliation - 'taking one for the team' as it were - but otoh it really is a horrid, grossly offensive spectacle. Morally and aesthetically it's all wrong. Pragmatically? - who knows.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Noting the speed and vehemence with which Leon has been deployed to smear him (before lunch even!), suggests optimism about his potential term as Mayor.
Though 2005 is only 20 years ago and there could strong independent candidates, so it may not be a Dem shoo-in.
Bruv, no one Deploys The Leon
"Release the Leon!"
"Welease Weon!"
"He wanks as high as any in Wome!"
I’m surely the only PBer whose wanking is so extreme it has drawn the attention of the British Prime Minister
Labour both insisting they are ploughing on with the welfare bill and briefing they'll have to pull it. Strong leadership. 2024 intake prepared to go on record on national media that they are prepared to lose the whip and that 'no confidence' isnt the threat he thinks it is. Weaker than the last days of Boris or May
Remember Hammond & May caving on the self employed NI thing, they'd bottle everything else. Same with Starmer and winter fuel. Individual Labour MPs must be able to smell the weakness from a mile off.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
On the other hand, Mamdani has an astonishingly attractive wife.
As some of you may know, I have a nerdish interest in local government Councillors who defect from one party to another. In my opinion it says more about the state of political parties than local government by elections. If anyone else is interested, my latest jottings on the subject can be found here, in a guest article for the Liberal England website -
Management Summary - 1.26% of elected Conservative Councillors have defected from the party since the local elections in May.
A very interesting article - a large number of defections since May, including from the Labour Party. I suppose this reflects the low standing in the opinion polls shown by both Labour and Conservatives. So perhaaps not all that surprising.
You ate probably right, but I remain surprised at the number of defections. Unfortunately, I only have the figures for the last couple of years, so it's not possible to be too emphatic, but it does seem that the numbers are increasing.
The Conservatives still have 2000 District Councillors in England but that will reduce with local Government reorganisation (it will impact the LDs as well) and 466 "County" Councillors including in authorities which will cease to exist in the next two or three years.
Indeed. But I am not concerning myself with the absolute number of councillors, just the attrition rate caused by defections, and what those defections might mean. Sadly, this subject doesn't seem to get the attention it deserves from political analysts. In all probability a defecting councillor handicaps the next Parliamentary campaign by removing an activist with detailed knowledge of (at least) one ward. They may also take their families and friends with them. That's a fair number of leaflets undelivered, doors un-canvassed and posters not displayed. Maybe even financial donations not made. If the election is fought mainly as an "air war", then it may not be relevant, but if the "ground war" is still important (and I think it is) then defecting councillors can be a significant hindrance to a Parliamentary campaign.
I think that's right. Nevertheless have been a little surprised that (so far) the Con ranks at Westminster and devolved level have remained pretty solid despite everything. And Labour haven't lost any MPs to other parties, tho some sit as Indies. The Tories did lose an MSP (to the LibDems) at Holyrood but that was mainly down to his pro-trans views and that he had no chance of being re-selected.
Fuck me, I'd missed the SCon-SLD defection! I'd say I'm more than averagely interested in politics so that probably says a lot about the SCons and SLDs. Still, at least the SCons still have Russell 'In Liz we Trust' Findlay at the helm.
You need to pay more attention! I thought you of all people would have seen that!!
Jamie Greene MSP. Possibly best known for the highlights in his beard.
@Theuniondivvie Talking of all this, Ross Thomson has defected.
Inevitable, I suspect. An outlier in SCon terms - v rightwing and Brexity. And crashed and burned as an MP. Probably fancies his chances as a Reform list MSP, like some of the Aberdeenshire councillors.
Thanks. He was quite high profile for a while but I’d completely forgotten about him. I see from Wiki that Thomson currently works for Trump International at Balmedie so I’m sure he’ll be a great fit for Reform (or given Rutte’s embarrassing performance, a post at NATO).
St James's Park is gonna be a huge building site. Hope the pelicans and other birds will be housed safely!
Glass bridge at nationally sensitive site easily accessible in the dark at a time when the Royal Parks Police have been disbanded. I can't begin to imagine anything could go wrong.
I'd prefer Green Park TBH, which I think was also more used by the Royal Family.
That's where my cousin used to walk the dog when he was living at Buck House.
Why was the dog living at Buck House? Did they need to establish scale?
Extraordinary spectacle here at NATO. Trump isn't being treated by Rutte and fellow leaders as a partner and fellow head of govt, but rather a sort of world king with themselves relegated as courtiers. Probably the only thing they can do in the circs, but deeply weird.
That reaffirms my earlier comment of the embarrassing fawning by Rutte at Trump this morning
Yes, in a sense it's admirably unselfish to be eating the humiliation - 'taking one for the team' as it were - but otoh it really is a horrid, grossly offensive spectacle. Morally and aesthetically it's all wrong. Pragmatically? - who knows.
It makes Rutte, and Europe, look totally pathetic.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
The centre absolutely can hold, we just need to fix the problems.
I have as you know always been very pro-migration and liberal on that front, however I do wonder if perhaps a couple of years of net emigration might be a good thing to help deal with the property issue.
Hundreds of thousands of new homes being built per year, combined with net emigration for a couple of years, might help restore some sanity to that market and bring back price to earnings levels back down and get a higher proportion of people onto the property ladder.
After that, or immediately if we start to build millions of homes per year rather than a few hundred thousand, I'd have no object to net migration rising again.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Probably. However this guy is so extreme (he wants to “defund the police”) it is possible moderate New Yorkers will caucus against him and vote Republican
Unlikely - but possible
Wishcasting again
He’s quite hinduohobic as well. Wants to arrest Modi if he comes to NYC (or so it is claimed on X)
However the future NYC mayor is also, apparently, an arsenal fan
As was Osama. A very bad sign.
It’s really weird how Arsenal attract worldwide radical chic lefties and Islamists. Because they definitely do
Labour both insisting they are ploughing on with the welfare bill and briefing they'll have to pull it. Strong leadership. 2024 intake prepared to go on record on national media that they are prepared to lose the whip and that 'no confidence' isnt the threat he thinks it is. Weaker than the last days of Boris or May
Remember Hammond & May caving on the self employed NI thing, they'd bottle everything else. Same with Starmer and winter fuel. Individual Labour MPs must be able to smell the weakness from a mile off.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
On the other hand, Mamdani has an astonishingly attractive wife.
Labour both insisting they are ploughing on with the welfare bill and briefing they'll have to pull it. Strong leadership. 2024 intake prepared to go on record on national media that they are prepared to lose the whip and that 'no confidence' isnt the threat he thinks it is. Weaker than the last days of Boris or May
Remember Hammond & May caving on the self employed NI thing, they'd bottle everything else. Same with Starmer and winter fuel. Individual Labour MPs must be able to smell the weakness from a mile off.
Osborne caved over a tax on Cornish pasties.
The difference is he didn't cave over everything and he didn't make a mountain out of that then cave, he did so rather quickly.
The louder you are at insisting that you won't u-turn, the more damaging it is when you do. If you do so rather quickly/quietly then people may mock you for it but it isn't so damaging next time you insist you won't.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Probably. However this guy is so extreme (he wants to “defund the police”) it is possible moderate New Yorkers will caucus against him and vote Republican
Unlikely - but possible
Wishcasting again
He’s quite hinduohobic as well. Wants to arrest Modi if he comes to NYC (or so it is claimed on X)
However the future NYC mayor is also, apparently, an arsenal fan
As was Osama. A very bad sign.
It’s really weird how Arsenal attract worldwide radical chic lefties and Islamists. Because they definitely do
Dislike of the Tottenham fan base?
"We can't use the Y word, we'll just call them [naughty word that triggers the ban hammer]"
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Probably. However this guy is so extreme (he wants to “defund the police”) it is possible moderate New Yorkers will caucus against him and vote Republican
Unlikely - but possible
Wishcasting again
He’s quite hinduohobic as well. Wants to arrest Modi if he comes to NYC (or so it is claimed on X)
However the future NYC mayor is also, apparently, an arsenal fan
As was Osama. A very bad sign.
It’s really weird how Arsenal attract worldwide radical chic lefties and Islamists. Because they definitely do
Dislike of the Tottenham fan base?
That did occur to me but out of an abundance of good taste I declined to go there
Extraordinary spectacle here at NATO. Trump isn't being treated by Rutte and fellow leaders as a partner and fellow head of govt, but rather a sort of world king with themselves relegated as courtiers. Probably the only thing they can do in the circs, but deeply weird.
That reaffirms my earlier comment of the embarrassing fawning by Rutte at Trump this morning
Yes, in a sense it's admirably unselfish to be eating the humiliation - 'taking one for the team' as it were - but otoh it really is a horrid, grossly offensive spectacle. Morally and aesthetically it's all wrong. Pragmatically? - who knows.
It makes Rutte, and Europe, look totally pathetic.
Reaffirms the view that NATO is essentially an adjunct of the USA. USA post Trump is interesting I think, my hunch is it'll either be Vance or AOC (Or someone else either quite to the left or right) - no more Romneys or Obamas in charge now; the centrist ship sailed off with Biden's cognition. Cuomo's bid for mayor sunk in the primaries is a symptom of that I reckon.
Extraordinary spectacle here at NATO. Trump isn't being treated by Rutte and fellow leaders as a partner and fellow head of govt, but rather a sort of world king with themselves relegated as courtiers. Probably the only thing they can do in the circs, but deeply weird.
That reaffirms my earlier comment of the embarrassing fawning by Rutte at Trump this morning
Yes, in a sense it's admirably unselfish to be eating the humiliation - 'taking one for the team' as it were - but otoh it really is a horrid, grossly offensive spectacle. Morally and aesthetically it's all wrong. Pragmatically? - who knows.
It makes Rutte, and Europe, look totally pathetic.
A very tough watch indeed. Or I should say I imagine it is since I do my best to avoid.
As some of you may know, I have a nerdish interest in local government Councillors who defect from one party to another. In my opinion it says more about the state of political parties than local government by elections. If anyone else is interested, my latest jottings on the subject can be found here, in a guest article for the Liberal England website -
Management Summary - 1.26% of elected Conservative Councillors have defected from the party since the local elections in May.
A very interesting article - a large number of defections since May, including from the Labour Party. I suppose this reflects the low standing in the opinion polls shown by both Labour and Conservatives. So perhaaps not all that surprising.
You ate probably right, but I remain surprised at the number of defections. Unfortunately, I only have the figures for the last couple of years, so it's not possible to be too emphatic, but it does seem that the numbers are increasing.
The Conservatives still have 2000 District Councillors in England but that will reduce with local Government reorganisation (it will impact the LDs as well) and 466 "County" Councillors including in authorities which will cease to exist in the next two or three years.
Indeed. But I am not concerning myself with the absolute number of councillors, just the attrition rate caused by defections, and what those defections might mean. Sadly, this subject doesn't seem to get the attention it deserves from political analysts. In all probability a defecting councillor handicaps the next Parliamentary campaign by removing an activist with detailed knowledge of (at least) one ward. They may also take their families and friends with them. That's a fair number of leaflets undelivered, doors un-canvassed and posters not displayed. Maybe even financial donations not made. If the election is fought mainly as an "air war", then it may not be relevant, but if the "ground war" is still important (and I think it is) then defecting councillors can be a significant hindrance to a Parliamentary campaign.
I think that's right. Nevertheless have been a little surprised that (so far) the Con ranks at Westminster and devolved level have remained pretty solid despite everything. And Labour haven't lost any MPs to other parties, tho some sit as Indies. The Tories did lose an MSP (to the LibDems) at Holyrood but that was mainly down to his pro-trans views and that he had no chance of being re-selected.
Fuck me, I'd missed the SCon-SLD defection! I'd say I'm more than averagely interested in politics so that probably says a lot about the SCons and SLDs. Still, at least the SCons still have Russell 'In Liz we Trust' Findlay at the helm.
You need to pay more attention! I thought you of all people would have seen that!!
Jamie Greene MSP. Possibly best known for the highlights in his beard.
@Theuniondivvie Talking of all this, Ross Thomson has defected.
Inevitable, I suspect. An outlier in SCon terms - v rightwing and Brexity. And crashed and burned as an MP. Probably fancies his chances as a Reform list MSP, like some of the Aberdeenshire councillors.
Thanks. He was quite high profile for a while but I’d completely forgotten about him. I see from Wiki that Thomson currently works for Trump International at Balmedie so I’m sure he’ll be a great fit for Reform (or given Rutte’s embarrassing performance, a post at NATO).
He was certainly high profile concerning a series of "errors of judgement", to the point that the Chairman of his constituency party refused to sign his nomination papers for the 2019 GE. I met him a few times over the years and found him a pretty shallow and rather immature man. I do not imagine the Aberdeenshire Tories are in mourning for a lost leader.
Fun four way marginal seat on new Electoral Calculus MRP:
Bermondsey and Old Southwark CON 8% LAB 26% LIB 21% REF 22% GRN 20%
Also well over 150 seats with 3 parties on 20%+
This MRP has every seat in B'ham apart from one (Hall Green) going to ReformUK. I find that difficult to believe. Also Bradford West.
It also has Bob Blackman losing nearly 40% of his vote in Harrow East to just cling on and Reform taking Hendon from 7% in 2024 (with both Lab and Con on 38% in 2024).
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Probably. However this guy is so extreme (he wants to “defund the police”) it is possible moderate New Yorkers will caucus against him and vote Republican
Unlikely - but possible
Wishcasting again
He’s quite hinduohobic as well. Wants to arrest Modi if he comes to NYC (or so it is claimed on X)
However the future NYC mayor is also, apparently, an arsenal fan
As was Osama. A very bad sign.
It’s really weird how Arsenal attract worldwide radical chic lefties and Islamists. Because they definitely do
Dislike of the Tottenham fan base?
That did occur to me but out of an abundance of good taste I declined to go there
I reckon Arsenal have as many Jewish fans as Tottenham.
Extraordinary spectacle here at NATO. Trump isn't being treated by Rutte and fellow leaders as a partner and fellow head of govt, but rather a sort of world king with themselves relegated as courtiers. Probably the only thing they can do in the circs, but deeply weird.
That reaffirms my earlier comment of the embarrassing fawning by Rutte at Trump this morning
Yes, in a sense it's admirably unselfish to be eating the humiliation - 'taking one for the team' as it were - but otoh it really is a horrid, grossly offensive spectacle. Morally and aesthetically it's all wrong. Pragmatically? - who knows.
It makes Rutte, and Europe, look totally pathetic.
Reaffirms the view that NATO is essentially an adjunct of the USA. USA post Trump is interesting I think, my hunch is it'll either be Vance or AOC (Or someone else either quite to the left or right) - no more Romneys or Obamas in charge now; the centrist ship sailed off with Biden's cognition. Cuomo's bid for mayor sunk in the primaries is a symptom of that I reckon.
Is it ? Or is it more a symptom of the exhaustion of the old Democratic establishment ?
There's an overlap between the two things, but they are far from identical.
Fun four way marginal seat on new Electoral Calculus MRP:
Bermondsey and Old Southwark CON 8% LAB 26% LIB 21% REF 22% GRN 20%
Also well over 150 seats with 3 parties on 20%+
This MRP has every seat in B'ham apart from one (Hall Green) going to ReformUK. I find that difficult to believe. Also Bradford West.
It also has Bob Blackman losing nearly 40% of his vote in Harrow East to just cling on and Reform taking Hendon from 7% in 2024 (with both Lab and Con on 38% in 2024).
Meanwhile Labour holds the likes of Hexham, Macclesfield, Reading Central, Earley&Woodley.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Probably. However this guy is so extreme (he wants to “defund the police”) it is possible moderate New Yorkers will caucus against him and vote Republican
Unlikely - but possible
Wishcasting again
He’s quite hinduohobic as well. Wants to arrest Modi if he comes to NYC (or so it is claimed on X)
However the future NYC mayor is also, apparently, an arsenal fan
As was Osama. A very bad sign.
It’s really weird how Arsenal attract worldwide radical chic lefties and Islamists. Because they definitely do
Dislike of the Tottenham fan base?
That did occur to me but out of an abundance of good taste I declined to go there
I reckon Arsenal have as many Jewish fans as Tottenham.
Isn't the whole thing about Tottenham and Jewish fans from a century ago? Bugger all to do with the racial makeup of Tottenham nowadays.
Europe should also be paying attention to this. Contributing to rebuilding a manufacturing base might be a productive use of the 1.5% of GDP which is supposed to be spent on "defence related" investment.
China's drone export curbs having real effect on pricing of components. Parts like IR imaging device, motors, IMU, camera, batteries & propellers are entirely dominated by producers in China... https://x.com/tphuang/status/1937662840980295780
Fun four way marginal seat on new Electoral Calculus MRP:
Bermondsey and Old Southwark CON 8% LAB 26% LIB 21% REF 22% GRN 20%
Also well over 150 seats with 3 parties on 20%+
This MRP has every seat in B'ham apart from one (Hall Green) going to ReformUK. I find that difficult to believe. Also Bradford West.
It also has Bob Blackman losing nearly 40% of his vote in Harrow East to just cling on and Reform taking Hendon from 7% in 2024 (with both Lab and Con on 38% in 2024).
Meanwhile Labour holds the likes of Hexham, Macclesfield, Reading Central, Earley&Woodley.
Hexham will be Tory or Reform, there is no way Labour cling on there, they barely registered in the locals up there in May, Earley and Woodley is a fairly easy Tory gain on any drop in Labour vote The Norfolk seats are a mess
Europe should also be paying attention to this. Contributing to rebuilding a manufacturing base might be a productive use of the 1.5% of GDP which is supposed to be spent on "defence related" investment.
China's drone export curbs having real effect on pricing of components. Parts like IR imaging device, motors, IMU, camera, batteries & propellers are entirely dominated by producers in China... https://x.com/tphuang/status/1937662840980295780
An absolute stupid decision by Boris led government was to shut down the taskforce that was aimed at looking at what crucial parts of the UK are far too reliant on China and how to go about addressing this situation.
Its the sort of thing that Big Dom latest crusade is attacking.
Fun four way marginal seat on new Electoral Calculus MRP:
Bermondsey and Old Southwark CON 8% LAB 26% LIB 21% REF 22% GRN 20%
Also well over 150 seats with 3 parties on 20%+
This MRP has every seat in B'ham apart from one (Hall Green) going to ReformUK. I find that difficult to believe. Also Bradford West.
It also has Bob Blackman losing nearly 40% of his vote in Harrow East to just cling on and Reform taking Hendon from 7% in 2024 (with both Lab and Con on 38% in 2024).
Meanwhile Labour holds the likes of Hexham, Macclesfield, Reading Central, Earley&Woodley.
Hexham will be Tory or Reform, there is no way Labour cling on there, they barely registered in the locals up there in May, Earley and Woodley is a fairly easy Tory gain on any drop in Labour vote The Norfolk seats are a mess
And it has reform winning London
Bear in mind that in Hexham the people most likely to vote Labour are the least likely to vote in local elections, i.e. younger professionals.
Fun four way marginal seat on new Electoral Calculus MRP:
Bermondsey and Old Southwark CON 8% LAB 26% LIB 21% REF 22% GRN 20%
Also well over 150 seats with 3 parties on 20%+
Is this a first post, if so welcome. 🫡
If MRP polling can’t point to a seat just like that one as clear Labour win with Reform having no chance, then 5 party politics has utterly broken their modelling.
I’ll go further, I think 5 party politics (though in some seats even more than 5 get good amounts) renders “worse satisfaction ratings in history” comparisons pretty much meaningless.
For much of 50s 60s 70’s 80’s 90’s etc when it was just 2.2 parties - how do you compare satisfaction rating from that era with today?
Fun four way marginal seat on new Electoral Calculus MRP:
Bermondsey and Old Southwark CON 8% LAB 26% LIB 21% REF 22% GRN 20%
Also well over 150 seats with 3 parties on 20%+
This MRP has every seat in B'ham apart from one (Hall Green) going to ReformUK. I find that difficult to believe. Also Bradford West.
It also has Bob Blackman losing nearly 40% of his vote in Harrow East to just cling on and Reform taking Hendon from 7% in 2024 (with both Lab and Con on 38% in 2024).
Meanwhile Labour holds the likes of Hexham, Macclesfield, Reading Central, Earley&Woodley.
Not that surprising- extended supersuburbia has to vote for someone. The sort of places that aren't nice enough to back the LibDems, don't have massive golf clubs and aren't particularly left behind enough to want to go Reform.
Meh Britain is Labour's new heartland (insert jokes about Starmer here). And there's quite a lot of it.
Fun four way marginal seat on new Electoral Calculus MRP:
Bermondsey and Old Southwark CON 8% LAB 26% LIB 21% REF 22% GRN 20%
Also well over 150 seats with 3 parties on 20%+
This MRP has every seat in B'ham apart from one (Hall Green) going to ReformUK. I find that difficult to believe. Also Bradford West.
It also has Bob Blackman losing nearly 40% of his vote in Harrow East to just cling on and Reform taking Hendon from 7% in 2024 (with both Lab and Con on 38% in 2024).
Meanwhile Labour holds the likes of Hexham, Macclesfield, Reading Central, Earley&Woodley.
Hexham will be Tory or Reform, there is no way Labour cling on there, they barely registered in the locals up there in May, Earley and Woodley is a fairly easy Tory gain on any drop in Labour vote The Norfolk seats are a mess
And it has reform winning London
Bear in mind that in Hexham the people most likely to vote Labour are the least likely to vote in local elections, i.e. younger professionals.
Granted, but on (as here) 22% national vote, Labour are not winning Hexham
Fun four way marginal seat on new Electoral Calculus MRP:
Bermondsey and Old Southwark CON 8% LAB 26% LIB 21% REF 22% GRN 20%
Also well over 150 seats with 3 parties on 20%+
This MRP has every seat in B'ham apart from one (Hall Green) going to ReformUK. I find that difficult to believe. Also Bradford West and Ilford South.
Haven't we seen in the past that the MRP type models do through up some weirdness that look very wrong due to probabilistic elements of the model (and YouGov got lots of scoffing when they started doing MRP), but the zoom'ed out picture of rough numbers of seats isn't a bad estimate.
I imagine this is even harder given the vote shares, there will be loads of coin flip seats.
I'd love to see an MRP from the likes of YouGov or Ipsos.
Do we know the fieldwork for this poll? It would be useful. Other pollsters show Reform sinking below 30 in recent weeks. But this one has them on 32%
10 to 17 June. Conducted by Find out Now so in line with their weekly polling recently which has Reform 30 to 32. Tories a little higher than their regular polling and Greens a little lower.
I'd love to see an MRP from the likes of YouGov or Ipsos.
Do we know the fieldwork for this poll? It would be useful. Other pollsters show Reform sinking below 30 in recent weeks. But this one has them on 32%
10-17 June if it's the Electoral Calculus one. Their previous MRPs were with Find Out Now, who have most of the highest Reform leads, and are still showing them over 30%. Not sure if that's similar methodology, or if they're involved in all FON polls.
Europe should also be paying attention to this. Contributing to rebuilding a manufacturing base might be a productive use of the 1.5% of GDP which is supposed to be spent on "defence related" investment.
China's drone export curbs having real effect on pricing of components. Parts like IR imaging device, motors, IMU, camera, batteries & propellers are entirely dominated by producers in China... https://x.com/tphuang/status/1937662840980295780
An absolute stupid decision by Boris led government was to shut down the taskforce that was aimed at looking at what crucial parts of the UK are far too reliant on China and how to go about addressing this situation.
Its the sort of thing that Big Dom latest crusade is attacking.
It has to be a Europe wide effort, though. Single countries don't have the resources to rebuild whole sectors on their own.
See also (eg) chip manufacturing; reusable launch capability; next generation combat aircraft etc
Extraordinary spectacle here at NATO. Trump isn't being treated by Rutte and fellow leaders as a partner and fellow head of govt, but rather a sort of world king with themselves relegated as courtiers. Probably the only thing they can do in the circs, but deeply weird.
That reaffirms my earlier comment of the embarrassing fawning by Rutte at Trump this morning
Yes, in a sense it's admirably unselfish to be eating the humiliation - 'taking one for the team' as it were - but otoh it really is a horrid, grossly offensive spectacle. Morally and aesthetically it's all wrong. Pragmatically? - who knows.
It makes Rutte, and Europe, look totally pathetic.
Because they are totally pathetic. Trump pays the bills so he calls the shots. If you want to be kept as someone's pet you need to live by their rules.
I'd love to see an MRP from the likes of YouGov or Ipsos.
Do we know the fieldwork for this poll? It would be useful. Other pollsters show Reform sinking below 30 in recent weeks. But this one has them on 32%
10-17 June if it's the Electoral Calculus one. Their previous MRPs were with Find Out Now, who have most of the highest Reform leads, and are still showing them over 30%. Not sure if that's similar methodology, or if they're involved in all FON polls.
Yes this is Find Out Now. One possible issue is this is a very small sample for an MRP - 5400 weighted down to just under 3000 of whom half 'would definitely vote' and 35% are 'don't know who i would vote for'
In understanding New York City politics, it is helpful to remember this. Mayoral elections in the US can be: Formally partisan, actually partisan Formally nonpartisan, actually nonpartisan Formally nonpartisan, actually partisan Formally partisan, actually nonpartisan
Tomorrow's demonstration will be coupled with what may be the most serious backbench rebellion of this administration so far. By Friday, 67 Labour MPs had signed an amendment to the Bill to kill its two most contentious clauses. It is open to others to add their names tomorrow.
If they were all to vote against the Government, it would be a bigger rebellion even than the one provoked last year by a proposed cut in benefits for single mothers.
Cabinet Ministers are determined to defeat the forces ranged against them, but welfare reform has not been a Blair success story. Tory leader William Hague has even suggested that it could be Blair's 'Vietnam'.
The 1997 Labour election manifesto promised to curb the rising cost of benefits and release money for health, education and other services. But working out how has caused ferocious rows. In opposition, the then Social Security spokesman Chris Smith was abruptly shoved aside after quarrelling with Shadow Chancellor Gordon Brown.
Smith was replaced by Harriet Harman, but in government she fell out with her deputy, Frank Field, and they were both sacked last July.
The Social Security Secretary, Alistair Darling, is a Blairite toughie whose previous job was at the Treasury, working with Brown on limiting public spending. Darling is in no mood to give in. He accuses the rebels of focusing on one disliked part of the Bill, and ignoring its more generous deal for the young severely disabled and new rules allowing men to claim widow's benefit for the first time.
He said: 'We are proposing a fair and balanced package. At the same time, we are making sure the benefits system reflects modern conditions. People cannot pick and choose. We were elected to reform the welfare state, and that is what we intend to do.'
Far from falling, the cost of welfare is scheduled to rise by £40 billion over the next three years. Benefits for the disabled now cost £25bn. Incapacity benefit is intended to help those who have been stopped from working because of an accident or illness. Yet four out of 10 people starting to receive it now are leaving unemployment rather than leaving work. In many cases, they have been signed off as sick by sympathetic GPs to give them extra money.
The Government therefore says anyone who has failed to pay any National Insurance contributions for two years will not get incapacity benefit, and those on occupational pensions of more than £50 a week will have part of their benefit docked.
I suppose one difference is that in 1999 government debt was £362bn and now its £2,867bn.
This came from the Thatcher government's tractor-statting the unemployment figures by getting anyone with a pulse, or a slightly irregular pulse, off the dole and onto some other benefit.
While the Blair government sent every young person with a pulse to university.
The higher education entry rate among UK 18-year-olds increased from 24.7% in 2006 to 30.7% in 2015 and peaked at 38.2% in 2021. It fell back to 36.4% in 2024.
The Blair ministry was 1997 to 2007, and then Brown from 2007 to 2010. You need to get pre-1997 figures
Fun four way marginal seat on new Electoral Calculus MRP:
Bermondsey and Old Southwark CON 8% LAB 26% LIB 21% REF 22% GRN 20%
Also well over 150 seats with 3 parties on 20%+
This MRP has every seat in B'ham apart from one (Hall Green) going to ReformUK. I find that difficult to believe. Also Bradford West and Ilford South.
Haven't we seen in the past that the MRP type models do through up some weirdness that look very wrong due to probabilistic elements of the model (and YouGov got lots of scoffing when they started doing MRP), but the zoom'ed out picture of rough numbers of seats isn't a bad estimate.
I imagine this is even harder given the vote shares, there will be loads of coin flip seats.
Maybe although this one is coming out with rather a lot of unlikely seat results. As you say the overall numbers may be quite good.
Europe should also be paying attention to this. Contributing to rebuilding a manufacturing base might be a productive use of the 1.5% of GDP which is supposed to be spent on "defence related" investment.
China's drone export curbs having real effect on pricing of components. Parts like IR imaging device, motors, IMU, camera, batteries & propellers are entirely dominated by producers in China... https://x.com/tphuang/status/1937662840980295780
An absolute stupid decision by Boris led government was to shut down the taskforce that was aimed at looking at what crucial parts of the UK are far too reliant on China and how to go about addressing this situation.
Its the sort of thing that Big Dom latest crusade is attacking.
It has to be a Europe wide effort, though. Single countries don't have the resources to rebuild whole sectors on their own.
See also (eg) chip manufacturing; reusable launch capability; next generation combat aircraft etc
Sure. But actually doing the investigation seems like the crucial starting point, as we all found out very quickly during COVID how exposed the West had become to things like crucial base chemicals.
Europe should also be paying attention to this. Contributing to rebuilding a manufacturing base might be a productive use of the 1.5% of GDP which is supposed to be spent on "defence related" investment.
China's drone export curbs having real effect on pricing of components. Parts like IR imaging device, motors, IMU, camera, batteries & propellers are entirely dominated by producers in China... https://x.com/tphuang/status/1937662840980295780
An absolute stupid decision by Boris led government was to shut down the taskforce that was aimed at looking at what crucial parts of the UK are far too reliant on China and how to go about addressing this situation.
Its the sort of thing that Big Dom latest crusade is attacking.
It has to be a Europe wide effort, though. Single countries don't have the resources to rebuild whole sectors on their own.
See also (eg) chip manufacturing; reusable launch capability; next generation combat aircraft etc
Sure. But actually doing the investigation seems like the crucial starting point, as we all found out very quickly during COVID how exposed the West had become to things like crucial base chemicals.
It is not hard to understand why a candidate would argue for city-owned grocery stores in New York. Poorer areas in large US cities often have few grocery stores, stocking mostly foods often thought to be unhealthy. Search on "food deserts in nyc" for more info.)
Extraordinary spectacle here at NATO. Trump isn't being treated by Rutte and fellow leaders as a partner and fellow head of govt, but rather a sort of world king with themselves relegated as courtiers. Probably the only thing they can do in the circs, but deeply weird.
That reaffirms my earlier comment of the embarrassing fawning by Rutte at Trump this morning
Yes, in a sense it's admirably unselfish to be eating the humiliation - 'taking one for the team' as it were - but otoh it really is a horrid, grossly offensive spectacle. Morally and aesthetically it's all wrong. Pragmatically? - who knows.
It makes Rutte, and Europe, look totally pathetic.
Because they are totally pathetic. Trump pays the bills so he calls the shots. If you want to be kept as someone's pet you need to live by their rules.
Trump pays the bills? There’s me thinking it was the USA, and only part of the bill.
Fun four way marginal seat on new Electoral Calculus MRP:
Bermondsey and Old Southwark CON 8% LAB 26% LIB 21% REF 22% GRN 20%
Also well over 150 seats with 3 parties on 20%+
Is this a first post, if so welcome. 🫡
If MRP polling can’t point to a seat just like that one as clear Labour win with Reform having no chance, then 5 party politics has utterly broken their modelling.
I’ll go further, I think 5 party politics (though in some seats even more than 5 get good amounts) renders “worse satisfaction ratings in history” comparisons pretty much meaningless.
For much of 50s 60s 70’s 80’s 90’s etc when it was just 2.2 parties - how do you compare satisfaction rating from that era with today?
In theory MRPs are robust to the number of parties: that's the "MR" bit (multilevel regression). In practice it leads to oddities as seats get tighter and tighter, as @jamesdorothy has intuited.
Fun four way marginal seat on new Electoral Calculus MRP:
Bermondsey and Old Southwark CON 8% LAB 26% LIB 21% REF 22% GRN 20%
Also well over 150 seats with 3 parties on 20%+
This MRP has every seat in B'ham apart from one (Hall Green) going to ReformUK. I find that difficult to believe. Also Bradford West and Ilford South.
Haven't we seen in the past that the MRP type models do through up some weirdness that look very wrong due to probabilistic elements of the model (and YouGov got lots of scoffing when they started doing MRP), but the zoom'ed out picture of rough numbers of seats isn't a bad estimate.
I imagine this is even harder given the vote shares, there will be loads of coin flip seats.
Maybe although this one is coming out with rather a lot of unlikely seat results. As you say the overall numbers may be quite good.
It seems extremely unlikely the Lib Dems can hold on to their almost perfect vote efficiency from 2024 on the same vote whilst it all goes tonto everywhere else for Lab and Con. In the normal run of events 13% LD is going to get them 30 to 40 seats maybe. Are they really making zero national progress but retaining all the tactical votes? If the votes they lent to Labour in 24 are returning, they would, by definition, be dropping back in the blue wall
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Probably. However this guy is so extreme (he wants to “defund the police”) it is possible moderate New Yorkers will caucus against him and vote Republican
Unlikely - but possible
Wishcasting again
He’s quite hinduohobic as well. Wants to arrest Modi if he comes to NYC (or so it is claimed on X)
However the future NYC mayor is also, apparently, an arsenal fan
As was Osama. A very bad sign.
It’s really weird how Arsenal attract worldwide radical chic lefties and Islamists. Because they definitely do
Dislike of the Tottenham fan base?
That did occur to me but out of an abundance of good taste I declined to go there
I reckon Arsenal have as many Jewish fans as Tottenham.
In the 1970s I went to see Arsenal vs Tottenham on Boxing Day. Back then you just rocked up and paid cash at the turnstile; not hard for me as I lived around the corner. The old Highbury Stadium was only half full but the home fans were in good voice, continuously chanting that traditional Mosleyite marching hymn 'The Yids, the Yids, we gotta get rid of the Yids'.
Thirty years later I met an Arsenal director who was Jewish, so things had definitely changed by then. "We made a dreadful mistake with the Emirates Stadium," he sighed. "We should have made it twice the size."
It is not hard to understand why a candidate would argue for city-owned grocery stores in New York. Poorer areas in large US cities often have few grocery stores, stocking mostly foods often thought to be unhealthy. Search on "food deserts in nyc" for more info.)
It's still a bad idea.
It's a bad idea, but is it the least bad available idea? A community-cooperative-not City Hall shop might be a better model, but it's also harder to see that getting off the ground.
Although the term "concentration camps" was repurposed to describe the Nazi death camps and became synonymous with them, the term was originally used to describe the camps used by the British to corral/imprison civilians in the Boer War at the town/village level. Whilst the intent was to prevent them giving succor to the enemy, the resultant civilian deaths from hunger and disease was seen as an added bonus. Whether this usage is appropriate for use in Gaza is an exercise I will leave to the reader.
Extraordinary spectacle here at NATO. Trump isn't being treated by Rutte and fellow leaders as a partner and fellow head of govt, but rather a sort of world king with themselves relegated as courtiers. Probably the only thing they can do in the circs, but deeply weird.
That reaffirms my earlier comment of the embarrassing fawning by Rutte at Trump this morning
Yes, in a sense it's admirably unselfish to be eating the humiliation - 'taking one for the team' as it were - but otoh it really is a horrid, grossly offensive spectacle. Morally and aesthetically it's all wrong. Pragmatically? - who knows.
It makes Rutte, and Europe, look totally pathetic.
Because they are totally pathetic. Trump pays the bills so he calls the shots. If you want to be kept as someone's pet you need to live by their rules.
Trump pays the bills? There’s me thinking it was the USA, and only part of the bill.
Then why don't they tell him to do one? Because they need him, not the other way around.
If they want dignity they should start choosing policies to make their countries strong and they won't need to kowtow.
Extraordinary spectacle here at NATO. Trump isn't being treated by Rutte and fellow leaders as a partner and fellow head of govt, but rather a sort of world king with themselves relegated as courtiers. Probably the only thing they can do in the circs, but deeply weird.
That reaffirms my earlier comment of the embarrassing fawning by Rutte at Trump this morning
If Europe is to spend lots more on defence, we ought at least use some of that to buy a degree of independence from a highly unreliable US.
Yes, but there's a trap with that approach, which is to spend years arguing with the French about where Europe's independent capacity is built, and end up making no progress.
In the short-term Europe wants to buy all of America's available military manufacturing capacity to supply Ukraine. And increase our independent capacity at the same time.
The work being announced on joint drone production with Ukraine strikes me as being admirably pragmatic in terms of increasing European capacity with technology that is ready to go.
Comments
No party has even started to address the economic car crash coming down the line
And as for point scoring that is just politics
(True that Trump is his father)
Also could be a new Tory leader eg Jenrick or Cleverly by the end of next year
In German this phenomenon is known as:
Fremdbegehrensverständnisgleichgültigkeit
Will be taking the Eurostar to Lille at the end of August so will be watching in case I need to change plans.
That's where my cousin used to walk the dog when he was living at Buck House.
Extraordinary spectacle here at NATO. Trump isn't being treated by Rutte and fellow leaders as a partner and fellow head of govt, but rather a sort of world king with themselves relegated as courtiers. Probably the only thing they can do in the circs, but deeply weird.
The tiara bridge is hard to judge from that picture but for many, tiaras recall Princess Diana rather than her mother-in-law. I wonder if it is a project that has been waiting for a justification. That said, it might be visually attractive or blinding depending how it reflects light.
If he sticks to all of the out there policies which he's floated, then I agree it's very likely indeed.
But I think he'll have to have at least a a couple of weeks in office before we know for sure.
He seems to be something of a protean character. Perhaps that will extend to being a trimmer ?
2024 intake prepared to go on record on national media that they are prepared to lose the whip and that 'no confidence' isnt the threat he thinks it is.
Weaker than the last days of Boris or May
Foster is a safe choice I think; I can't think of a bad scheme of his that I have seen.
Talking of all this, Ross Thomson has defected.
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/politics/scottish-politics/6788108/ross-thomson-reform-conservative/
Inevitable, I suspect. An outlier in SCon terms - v rightwing and Brexity. And crashed and burned as an MP.
Probably fancies his chances as a Reform list MSP, like some of the Aberdeenshire councillors.
They are the government with a huge majority and Reform have only 5 mps
It does gives the impression they are running scared of Reform
Tho I believe the same happened to ex PBer @SeanT
I have as you know always been very pro-migration and liberal on that front, however I do wonder if perhaps a couple of years of net emigration might be a good thing to help deal with the property issue.
Hundreds of thousands of new homes being built per year, combined with net emigration for a couple of years, might help restore some sanity to that market and bring back price to earnings levels back down and get a higher proportion of people onto the property ladder.
After that, or immediately if we start to build millions of homes per year rather than a few hundred thousand, I'd have no object to net migration rising again.
The louder you are at insisting that you won't u-turn, the more damaging it is when you do. If you do so rather quickly/quietly then people may mock you for it but it isn't so damaging next time you insist you won't.
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
CON 8%
LAB 26%
LIB 21%
REF 22%
GRN 20%
Also well over 150 seats with 3 parties on 20%+
https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/trump-surrogate-calls-netanyahu-bald-faced-liar
Or is it more a symptom of the exhaustion of the old Democratic establishment ?
There's an overlap between the two things, but they are far from identical.
New Statesman thinks that may be changing.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/06/keir-starmer-has-a-problem-the-left-are-organising?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
I want y'all to share all of the deranged tweets about Mamdani winning tonight below
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1937744588913123444
China's drone export curbs having real effect on pricing of components.
Parts like IR imaging device, motors, IMU, camera, batteries & propellers are entirely dominated by producers in China...
https://x.com/tphuang/status/1937662840980295780
The Norfolk seats are a mess
And it has reform winning London
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxlqeyw95no
Its the sort of thing that Big Dom latest crusade is attacking.
If MRP polling can’t point to a seat just like that one as clear Labour win with Reform having no chance, then 5 party politics has utterly broken their modelling.
I’ll go further, I think 5 party politics (though in some seats even more than 5 get good amounts) renders “worse satisfaction ratings in history” comparisons pretty much meaningless.
For much of 50s 60s 70’s 80’s 90’s etc when it was just 2.2 parties - how do you compare satisfaction rating from that era with today?
Meh Britain is Labour's new heartland (insert jokes about Starmer here). And there's quite a lot of it.
We are banned from Trump’s America for life
https://x.com/golub/status/1937737676670796163
The admin alone for this would mean a couple of years before Leon would be able to revisit the US.
I imagine this is even harder given the vote shares, there will be loads of coin flip seats.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_City,_Kansas
Single countries don't have the resources to rebuild whole sectors on their own.
See also (eg) chip manufacturing; reusable launch capability; next generation combat aircraft etc
To facilitate this vetting, all applicants for F, M, and J nonimmigrant visas will be instructed to adjust the privacy settings on all of their social media profiles to “public.”
https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/06/announcement-of-expanded-screening-and-vetting-for-visa-applicants/
But should getting a US visa be subject to the same sort of scrutiny an MP can expect ?
Just as well Canada and Mexico are co-hosting the World Cup...
Formally partisan, actually partisan
Formally nonpartisan, actually nonpartisan
Formally nonpartisan, actually partisan
Formally partisan, actually nonpartisan
New York City often falls into the last category.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/former-scottish-tory-mp-jumps-ship-to-reform/
https://x.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1937545947162247288
Finally ‘food pantries’ has to give up its shit euphemism crown.
https://x.com/alanrmacleod/status/1937632825181896813?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
It's still a bad idea.
Thirty years later I met an Arsenal director who was Jewish, so things had definitely changed by then. "We made a dreadful mistake with the Emirates Stadium," he sighed. "We should have made it twice the size."
If they want dignity they should start choosing policies to make their countries strong and they won't need to kowtow.
In the short-term Europe wants to buy all of America's available military manufacturing capacity to supply Ukraine. And increase our independent capacity at the same time.
The work being announced on joint drone production with Ukraine strikes me as being admirably pragmatic in terms of increasing European capacity with technology that is ready to go.