How is this going to work with the Olympics, with foreign athletes and visitors?
"The USA won 90% of Olympics golds at the 2028 Olympics because athletes from every other country were banned from entering for being foreign. The remaining 10% were US-born athletes who were forbidden from flying because they were a bit foreign-looking..."
I really don't get how these MRP models work. To take the example of Hendon..... In the tables Reform get 25% ( and win) London, just under trebling their 2024 capital vote yet they get four times the 2024 vote in Hendon at 29% (compared to 7.4%). Labour lose half their 2024 vote in the capital but drop from 38% to 25% in Hendon and the Tories retain their 2024 capital vote at 20% but in Hendon drop from 38% to 22%. LDs and Greens randomly grab an extra 10% between them in a seat they have no interest in whatsoever in 4th and 5th.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
Young people are going hard left over stagnant wages, student debt and not enough affordable homes, middle aged people are going hard nationalist right over immigration, pensioners tend to be most centrist ironically eg Carney and Macron and May won their highest voteshare with over 65s and Harris tied Trump with pensioners and Reform do best with 50-60 year olds not over 65s
Young nowadays are a bunch of lazy scroungers wanting everything on a plate for nothing.
I really don't get how these MRP models work. To take the example of Hendon..... In the tables Reform get 25% ( and win) London, just under trebling their 2024 capital vote yet they get four times the 2024 vote in Hendon at 29% (compared to 7.4%). Labour lose half their 2024 vote in the capital but drop from 38% to 25% in Hendon and the Tories retain their 2024 capital vote at 20% but in Hendon drop from 38% to 22%. LDs and Greens randomly grab an extra 10% between them in a seat they have no interest in whatsoever in 4th and 5th.
It makes zero sense.
They are based on the demographics of each constituency not city or region and voteshare changes amongst each group nationally cross referenced to that constituency
I really don't get how these MRP models work. To take the example of Hendon..... In the tables Reform get 25% ( and win) London, just under trebling their 2024 capital vote yet they get four times the 2024 vote in Hendon at 29% (compared to 7.4%). Labour lose half their 2024 vote in the capital but drop from 38% to 25% in Hendon and the Tories retain their 2024 capital vote at 20% but in Hendon drop from 38% to 22%. LDs and Greens randomly grab an extra 10% between them in a seat they have no interest in whatsoever in 4th and 5th.
It makes zero sense.
They are based on the demographics of each constituency not city or region and voteshare changes amongst each group nationally cross referenced to that constituency
That's 99% right: they also overlay things like "Labour outperforms with group [x] by 5 percentage points here", etc.
In Scotland though the MRP today has the Tories still winning more seats than Reform, the only UK nation or region the Tories will win more seats than Farage's party (even if they win more votes than Reform in London still)
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
Young people are going hard left over stagnant wages, student debt and not enough affordable homes, middle aged people are going hard nationalist right over immigration, pensioners tend to be most centrist ironically eg Carney and Macron and May won their highest voteshare with over 65s and Harris tied Trump with pensioners and Reform do best with 50-60 year olds not over 65s
Young nowadays are a bunch of lazy scroungers wanting everything on a plate for nothing.
That isn't true.
Benefits were much better in my day. Unemployment benefit between O and A levels were a nice Brucie holiday bonus back in the day.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
Young people are going hard left over stagnant wages, student debt and not enough affordable homes, middle aged people are going hard nationalist right over immigration, pensioners tend to be most centrist ironically eg Carney and Macron and May won their highest voteshare with over 65s and Harris tied Trump with pensioners and Reform do best with 50-60 year olds not over 65s
Young nowadays are a bunch of lazy scroungers wanting everything on a plate for nothing.
...says nobody who actually knows any young people.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
Young people are going hard left over stagnant wages, student debt and not enough affordable homes, middle aged people are going hard nationalist right over immigration, pensioners tend to be most centrist ironically eg Carney and Macron and May won their highest voteshare with over 65s and Harris tied Trump with pensioners and Reform do best with 50-60 year olds not over 65s
Young nowadays are a bunch of lazy scroungers wanting everything on a plate for nothing.
'Where a new Corbyn led party performs most well is among 18-24 year olds. Our polling suggests it would lead among this group taking almost a third of the vote' 18-24s are uber woke socialists basically, no surprise there, at least until they get a job https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1937775631086850203
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Probably. However this guy is so extreme (he wants to “defund the police”) it is possible moderate New Yorkers will caucus against him and vote Republican
Unlikely - but possible
Wishcasting again
He’s quite hinduohobic as well. Wants to arrest Modi if he comes to NYC (or so it is claimed on X)
However the future NYC mayor is also, apparently, an arsenal fan
As was Osama. A very bad sign.
It’s really weird how Arsenal attract worldwide radical chic lefties and Islamists. Because they definitely do
Dislike of the Tottenham fan base?
That did occur to me but out of an abundance of good taste I declined to go there
I reckon Arsenal have as many Jewish fans as Tottenham.
Isn't the whole thing about Tottenham and Jewish fans from a century ago? Bugger all to do with the racial makeup of Tottenham nowadays.
One of the hostages came back there to a hero's welcome although I don't know the numbers. I had heard that Arsenal had more Jewish fans that Spurs not that there is an official stat count.
And to conclude on the MRP, Reform get over 10% in every one of the 631 seats in the country and In England and Wales only fail to get 14% (their 2024 total) in one seat - Bristol Central. Complete nonsense output, they are polilng 31% not 45%
I really don't get how these MRP models work. To take the example of Hendon..... In the tables Reform get 25% ( and win) London, just under trebling their 2024 capital vote yet they get four times the 2024 vote in Hendon at 29% (compared to 7.4%). Labour lose half their 2024 vote in the capital but drop from 38% to 25% in Hendon and the Tories retain their 2024 capital vote at 20% but in Hendon drop from 38% to 22%. LDs and Greens randomly grab an extra 10% between them in a seat they have no interest in whatsoever in 4th and 5th.
It makes zero sense.
They are based on the demographics of each constituency not city or region and voteshare changes amongst each group nationally cross referenced to that constituency
Fun four way marginal seat on new Electoral Calculus MRP:
Bermondsey and Old Southwark CON 8% LAB 26% LIB 21% REF 22% GRN 20%
Also well over 150 seats with 3 parties on 20%+
This MRP has every seat in B'ham apart from one (Hall Green) going to ReformUK. I find that difficult to believe. Also Bradford West.
It also has Bob Blackman losing nearly 40% of his vote in Harrow East to just cling on and Reform taking Hendon from 7% in 2024 (with both Lab and Con on 38% in 2024).
Meanwhile Labour holds the likes of Hexham, Macclesfield, Reading Central, Earley&Woodley.
Not that surprising- extended supersuburbia has to vote for someone. The sort of places that aren't nice enough to back the LibDems, don't have massive golf clubs and aren't particularly left behind enough to want to go Reform.
Meh Britain is Labour's new heartland (insert jokes about Starmer here). And there's quite a lot of it.
I would describe both Macclesfield and Hexham as very nice. Surely both upper quintile for niceness and comfortably-offability.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
Young people are going hard left over stagnant wages, student debt and not enough affordable homes, middle aged people are going hard nationalist right over immigration, pensioners tend to be most centrist ironically eg Carney and Macron and May won their highest voteshare with over 65s and Harris tied Trump with pensioners and Reform do best with 50-60 year olds not over 65s
Young nowadays are a bunch of lazy scroungers wanting everything on a plate for nothing.
'Where a new Corbyn led party performs most well is among 18-24 year olds. Our polling suggests it would lead among this group taking almost a third of the vote' 18-24s are uber woke socialists basically, no surprise there, at least until they get a job https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1937775631086850203
Oh god, not another effing 'woke' comment.
Perhaps you should ask yourself *why* that age group holds the views they do. There will be many answers; some may be even more adult and reasoned than your own views...
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
Young people are going hard left over stagnant wages, student debt and not enough affordable homes, middle aged people are going hard nationalist right over immigration, pensioners tend to be most centrist ironically eg Carney and Macron and May won their highest voteshare with over 65s and Harris tied Trump with pensioners and Reform do best with 50-60 year olds not over 65s
Young nowadays are a bunch of lazy scroungers wanting everything on a plate for nothing.
"Our youth now love luxury, they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders, and they love to chatter instead of exercise. Children are now tyrants not servants of their household. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up their food and tyrannize their teachers"
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
Young people are going hard left over stagnant wages, student debt and not enough affordable homes, middle aged people are going hard nationalist right over immigration, pensioners tend to be most centrist ironically eg Carney and Macron and May won their highest voteshare with over 65s and Harris tied Trump with pensioners and Reform do best with 50-60 year olds not over 65s
Young nowadays are a bunch of lazy scroungers wanting everything on a plate for nothing.
'Where a new Corbyn led party performs most well is among 18-24 year olds. Our polling suggests it would lead among this group taking almost a third of the vote' 18-24s are uber woke socialists basically, no surprise there, at least until they get a job https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1937775631086850203
Oh god, not another effing 'woke' comment.
Perhaps you should ask yourself *why* that age group holds the views they do. There will be many answers; some may be even more adult and reasoned than your own views...
Because young people are always more leftist and socially liberal than middle aged and older people and that has been the case since the dawn of time
Just had a sudden urge to watch the original series of This Life from 1996. Funny how things like that pop into your mind for no particular reason. I'll have to see if it's available anywhere.
I really don't get how these MRP models work. To take the example of Hendon..... In the tables Reform get 25% ( and win) London, just under trebling their 2024 capital vote yet they get four times the 2024 vote in Hendon at 29% (compared to 7.4%). Labour lose half their 2024 vote in the capital but drop from 38% to 25% in Hendon and the Tories retain their 2024 capital vote at 20% but in Hendon drop from 38% to 22%. LDs and Greens randomly grab an extra 10% between them in a seat they have no interest in whatsoever in 4th and 5th.
It makes zero sense.
In principle MRP works on probabilities for each constituency where there's a big range of likely outcomes for each. So the MRP might calculate constituencies A, C and E will go for party X and B and D go for party Y. It doesn't mean necessarily constituency A is X and B is Y. Maybe it's the other way round because the spread of likely outcomes for each individual constituency is so wide. We can say however that party X will get 3 seats and Y 2 seats on this model. So we extend this across all 650 seats, or whatever it is, in parliament.
MRPs can be very accurate but it's also easy to go seriously wrong if your assumptions don't pan out.
Extraordinary spectacle here at NATO. Trump isn't being treated by Rutte and fellow leaders as a partner and fellow head of govt, but rather a sort of world king with themselves relegated as courtiers. Probably the only thing they can do in the circs, but deeply weird.
That reaffirms my earlier comment of the embarrassing fawning by Rutte at Trump this morning
Yes, in a sense it's admirably unselfish to be eating the humiliation - 'taking one for the team' as it were - but otoh it really is a horrid, grossly offensive spectacle. Morally and aesthetically it's all wrong. Pragmatically? - who knows.
Even if this was good tactics by Rutte (which it really is not) it’s devastating for European leaders to speak like this. The lack of self-respect and confidence that it telegraphs is demoralising domestically and empowers Europe’s enemies. It’s the language of defeat. https://x.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1937842538884256179
Rutte has become like some sort of European Maureen Dowd. He gained a reputation, based on flimsy evidence, of being a "Trump whisperer" during the first Trump administration, and has morphed into an apologist for the mad old bastard.
In Rutte's case, delivered from a posture of abject cringe.
Although the term "concentration camps" was repurposed to describe the Nazi death camps and became synonymous with them, the term was originally used to describe the camps used by the British to corral/imprison civilians in the Boer War at the town/village level. Whilst the intent was to prevent them giving succor to the enemy, the resultant civilian deaths from hunger and disease was seen as an added bonus. Whether this usage is appropriate for use in Gaza is an exercise I will leave to the reader.
Nope, it originated with the Spanish in Cuba, during an insurrection there.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
Young people are going hard left over stagnant wages, student debt and not enough affordable homes, middle aged people are going hard nationalist right over immigration, pensioners tend to be most centrist ironically eg Carney and Macron and May won their highest voteshare with over 65s and Harris tied Trump with pensioners and Reform do best with 50-60 year olds not over 65s
Young nowadays are a bunch of lazy scroungers wanting everything on a plate for nothing.
'Where a new Corbyn led party performs most well is among 18-24 year olds. Our polling suggests it would lead among this group taking almost a third of the vote' 18-24s are uber woke socialists basically, no surprise there, at least until they get a job https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1937775631086850203
Oh god, not another effing 'woke' comment.
Perhaps you should ask yourself *why* that age group holds the views they do. There will be many answers; some may be even more adult and reasoned than your own views...
Because young people are always more leftist and socially liberal than middle aged and older people and that has been the case since the dawn of time
1) That is a massive generalisation. 2) You make an assumption that the trend will continue into the future.
Anyway, even if you are 100% correct, do you think dismissing their views as 'ultra woke socialists' will endear them to the party you support?
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
Young people are going hard left over stagnant wages, student debt and not enough affordable homes, middle aged people are going hard nationalist right over immigration, pensioners tend to be most centrist ironically eg Carney and Macron and May won their highest voteshare with over 65s and Harris tied Trump with pensioners and Reform do best with 50-60 year olds not over 65s
Young nowadays are a bunch of lazy scroungers wanting everything on a plate for nothing.
'Where a new Corbyn led party performs most well is among 18-24 year olds. Our polling suggests it would lead among this group taking almost a third of the vote' 18-24s are uber woke socialists basically, no surprise there, at least until they get a job https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1937775631086850203
Oh god, not another effing 'woke' comment.
Perhaps you should ask yourself *why* that age group holds the views they do. There will be many answers; some may be even more adult and reasoned than your own views...
Because young people are always more leftist and socially liberal than middle aged and older people and that has been the case since the dawn of time
1) That is a massive generalisation. 2) You make an assumption that the trend will continue into the future.
Anyway, even if you are 100% correct, do you think dismissing their views as 'ultra woke socialists' will endear them to the party you support?
Perhaps you should listen to them.
It isn't, the Conservatives (and indeed now Reform always do worst amongst under 25s) and Labour almost always do best amongst that age group (albeit Starmer does best with 25-34s and the Greens best with under 25s).
The only time a right of centre party won under 24s was 1983, unless a massive landslide young people don't vote right and rightwing parties don't need most of their votes to win
Just had a sudden urge to watch the original series of This Life from 1996. Funny how things like that pop into your mind for no particular reason. I'll have to see if it's available anywhere.
Rewatched it a couple of years ago - music was tremendous throughout!
Stuartinromford - There are food cooperatives in the US. For example: https://www.pccmarkets.com/ But I think they would encounter the same problems in most poor urban areas that other grocery stores do: poor customers, high crime, and so forth.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
Young people are going hard left over stagnant wages, student debt and not enough affordable homes, middle aged people are going hard nationalist right over immigration, pensioners tend to be most centrist ironically eg Carney and Macron and May won their highest voteshare with over 65s and Harris tied Trump with pensioners and Reform do best with 50-60 year olds not over 65s
Young nowadays are a bunch of lazy scroungers wanting everything on a plate for nothing.
...says nobody who actually knows any young people.
I will criticise the youth of today for their lack of resilience and tendency to think everything is unfair and biased against them, but I will never suggest that they don't work. I meet and interview hundreds of 17 years olds who want to go to Uni. Their endless activity (DoE, volunteering, charity work, trips, sheer hard work on the exams treadmill) boggles the mind when I look back on my personal statement in 1990 (I like sport and Dr Who).
The one thing that is perhaps missing is an understanding that previous generations also had challenges too. That their parents first home might not have been a nice three bed semi with all mod cons, and that what the kids see now is something that has been earned.
But you cannot get past the facts about housing. And that is shit for many of the younger generations.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
Young people are going hard left over stagnant wages, student debt and not enough affordable homes, middle aged people are going hard nationalist right over immigration, pensioners tend to be most centrist ironically eg Carney and Macron and May won their highest voteshare with over 65s and Harris tied Trump with pensioners and Reform do best with 50-60 year olds not over 65s
Young nowadays are a bunch of lazy scroungers wanting everything on a plate for nothing.
...says nobody who actually knows any young people.
You cannot be that stupid, sarcasm is the lowest form of wit.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
Young people are going hard left over stagnant wages, student debt and not enough affordable homes, middle aged people are going hard nationalist right over immigration, pensioners tend to be most centrist ironically eg Carney and Macron and May won their highest voteshare with over 65s and Harris tied Trump with pensioners and Reform do best with 50-60 year olds not over 65s
Young nowadays are a bunch of lazy scroungers wanting everything on a plate for nothing.
...says nobody who actually knows any young people.
I will criticise the youth of today for their lack of resilience and tendency to think everything is unfair and biased against them, but I will never suggest that they don't work. I meet and interview hundreds of 17 years olds who want to go to Uni. Their endless activity (DoE, volunteering, charity work, trips, sheer hard work on the exams treadmill) boggles the mind when I look back on my personal statement in 1990 (I like sport and Dr Who).
The one thing that is perhaps missing is an understanding that previous generations also had challenges too. That their parents first home might not have been a nice three bed semi with all mod cons, and that what the kids see now is something that has been earned.
But you cannot get past the facts about housing. And that is shit for many of the younger generations.
They still want everything on a plate. In olden times you had to knock your pan in living in someones spare bedroom or a hovel for many years doing several jobs to scrimp together the deposits needed.
Comments
"The USA won 90% of Olympics golds at the 2028 Olympics because athletes from every other country were banned from entering for being foreign. The remaining 10% were US-born athletes who were forbidden from flying because they were a bit foreign-looking..."
To take the example of Hendon.....
In the tables Reform get 25% ( and win) London, just under trebling their 2024 capital vote yet they get four times the 2024 vote in Hendon at 29% (compared to 7.4%). Labour lose half their 2024 vote in the capital but drop from 38% to 25% in Hendon and the Tories retain their 2024 capital vote at 20% but in Hendon drop from 38% to 22%. LDs and Greens randomly grab an extra 10% between them in a seat they have no interest in whatsoever in 4th and 5th.
It makes zero sense.
Benefits were much better in my day. Unemployment benefit between O and A levels were a nice Brucie holiday bonus back in the day.
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1937775631086850203
Complete nonsense output, they are polilng 31% not 45%
Perhaps you should ask yourself *why* that age group holds the views they do. There will be many answers; some may be even more adult and reasoned than your own views...
You are Socrates and I claim my €5.00
MRPs can be very accurate but it's also easy to go seriously wrong if your assumptions don't pan out.
https://x.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1937842538884256179
Rutte has become like some sort of European Maureen Dowd. He gained a reputation, based on flimsy evidence, of being a "Trump whisperer" during the first Trump administration, and has morphed into an apologist for the mad old bastard.
In Rutte's case, delivered from a posture of abject cringe.
NEW THREAD
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconcentration_policy
2) You make an assumption that the trend will continue into the future.
Anyway, even if you are 100% correct, do you think dismissing their views as 'ultra woke socialists' will endear them to the party you support?
Perhaps you should listen to them.
The only time a right of centre party won under 24s was 1983, unless a massive landslide young people don't vote right and rightwing parties don't need most of their votes to win
The one thing that is perhaps missing is an understanding that previous generations also had challenges too. That their parents first home might not have been a nice three bed semi with all mod cons, and that what the kids see now is something that has been earned.
But you cannot get past the facts about housing. And that is shit for many of the younger generations.