Wasn't even particularly close. Mandani is going to get the full Islamist Maoist antisemitic bicycle treatment now. Interesting to see how enthusiastically the centrist dad Dems will be about campaigning for him.
I’ve been rabbit-holing this guy. He’s…. interesting
The word “anti-Semite” is thrown around far too much, not least by Israelis seeking to deflect from Israeli barbarity - but this guy seems to be the real deal. An anti-Semite. After October 7th his first remarks were mainly aimed at evil Israel and he did not mention Hamas once
I am shocked that the National Review has uncovered this. It is a truth that should be universally aknowledged that the loudest screechers of 'Why didn't you mention Hamas!!!?' are always utterly silent on the IDF's Gazan activities (unless it's cheerleading them).
If a person's first response to the worst massacre of Jews since WW2 by a terrorist group (before Israel has taken any action at all) is to condemn Israel not the those carrying out the massacre then people are certainly entitled to draw adverse conclusions about that person's attitudes and prejudices.
IMO it is weak on explicit condemnation of the terror attack, but I think 'this guy is a supporter of Hamas' is overreach in return - because that implies he supports the terror attack.
No mention of Hamas whatsoever.
What a disgrace.
How sad for New York, a city known for a high Jewish population, that it has devolved to having him as a major candidate. Depressing.
The commentary about NYC Democrats nominating an anarchist-socialist for Mayor omits one point: how unchecked migration fundamentally remade the NYC electorate. Democrats change politics by changing voters. That’s how you turn a city that defined US dominance into what it is now.
The commentary about NYC Democrats nominating an anarchist-socialist for Mayor omits one point: how unchecked migration fundamentally remade the NYC electorate. Democrats change politics by changing voters. That’s how you turn a city that defined US dominance into what it is now.
Are you referencing Stephen Miller as a sage commentator rather than the disreputable driver of MAGA narratives?
I'm not sure of the ins and outs of free bus travel, though certain places in Europe have it (Luxembourg?).
Luxembourg does throughout their large nation. Malta does on most routes (but for the Maltese, not tourists). Gibraltar and Marbella again free for locals, but not for tourists. Belgrade, Tallinn, Kharkiv, Hasselt and Mons (those two are in Belgium) all have free public transport. Several smaller towns across Europe do too (including Dunkirk).
There are schemes in the US too, like parts of Washington state, Kansas City (which is, of course, in Missouri), Milwaukee, Irvine CA, and several others.
Wasn't even particularly close. Mandani is going to get the full Islamist Maoist antisemitic bicycle treatment now. Interesting to see how enthusiastically the centrist dad Dems will be about campaigning for him.
I’ve been rabbit-holing this guy. He’s…. interesting
The word “anti-Semite” is thrown around far too much, not least by Israelis seeking to deflect from Israeli barbarity - but this guy seems to be the real deal. An anti-Semite. After October 7th his first remarks were mainly aimed at evil Israel and he did not mention Hamas once
I am shocked that the National Review has uncovered this. It is a truth that should be universally aknowledged that the loudest screechers of 'Why didn't you mention Hamas!!!?' are always utterly silent on the IDF's Gazan activities (unless it's cheerleading them).
Let's see how he is in office, as he'll quite likely win now.
A Ugandan Indian immigrant, via South Africa, as a child; left wing student activist; former rapper; "Democratic Socialist"... he might or might not turn out to be a pragmatist.
If the Democratic establishment were less useless, and hadn't backed someone with several closets bursting with skeletons, he'd never have got the nomination.
I'd say they are trying a bit too hard on the "anti-Semitism" angle, given that that Mamdani is a representative for the 36th New York Congressional District, which is in .. Queens.
Their strongest attack line is based on something he said whilst he was in High School (ie USA version of 6th form). Born 1991, statement made in 2008.
Reading his policies - things like Universal Healthcare and aspiring to a minimum wage set at perhaps 40% of the national average by 2030, he seems mainly to be proposing a few steps towards introducing civilisation to the USA. I'm not sure of the ins and outs of free bus travel, though certain places in Europe have it (Luxembourg?).
He does afaics I can see support Israel's right to exist (as has been said); and does not seem to endorse it as a "Jewish State" (whatever that means in National Review code).
They seem quite worried, and are reaching for some startling language: "We oppose Mamdani’s moral unworthiness: He is worse than a democratic socialist; he is — as evidenced by an adult life’s worth of political actions — a deeply committed pro-Hamas activist and advocate for the abolition of Israel."
His statement after October 7 did NOT mention Hamas and did NOT condemn the specific terror attacks, and it went straight to blaming Israeli occupation and apartheid while mourning “everyone who has died in Israel and Gaza”
It’s anti Semitism. He couldn’t bring himself to condemn the terror rape and murder of Jews, even 36 hours after the October attacks, when the bodies were still unburied
Thanks for the reply - I've dug out his statement and commented on my other post.
Wasn't even particularly close. Mandani is going to get the full Islamist Maoist antisemitic bicycle treatment now. Interesting to see how enthusiastically the centrist dad Dems will be about campaigning for him.
I’ve been rabbit-holing this guy. He’s…. interesting
The word “anti-Semite” is thrown around far too much, not least by Israelis seeking to deflect from Israeli barbarity - but this guy seems to be the real deal. An anti-Semite. After October 7th his first remarks were mainly aimed at evil Israel and he did not mention Hamas once
I am shocked that the National Review has uncovered this. It is a truth that should be universally aknowledged that the loudest screechers of 'Why didn't you mention Hamas!!!?' are always utterly silent on the IDF's Gazan activities (unless it's cheerleading them).
If a person's first response to the worst massacre of Jews since WW2 by a terrorist group (before Israel has taken any action at all) is to condemn Israel not the those carrying out the massacre then people are certainly entitled to draw adverse conclusions about that person's attitudes and prejudices.
IMO it is weak on explicit condemnation of the terror attack, but I think 'this guy is a supporter of Hamas' is overreach in return - because that implies he supports the terror attack.
It’s absolutely disgraceful in the circumstances. Jewish people all over the world were shuddering in horror at a murderous rape pogrom, against Jews, the violence and scale of which we have not seen since the dark days of the 1940s
Free public transport for citizens of NYC isn't as bonkers as it might seem, on loads of routes they have basically given up trying to enforce tickets anyway.
The bonkers policy is this vague setting up state owned supermarkets. We all see in history what happens there.
Wasn't even particularly close. Mandani is going to get the full Islamist Maoist antisemitic bicycle treatment now. Interesting to see how enthusiastically the centrist dad Dems will be about campaigning for him.
I’ve been rabbit-holing this guy. He’s…. interesting
The word “anti-Semite” is thrown around far too much, not least by Israelis seeking to deflect from Israeli barbarity - but this guy seems to be the real deal. An anti-Semite. After October 7th his first remarks were mainly aimed at evil Israel and he did not mention Hamas once
I am shocked that the National Review has uncovered this. It is a truth that should be universally aknowledged that the loudest screechers of 'Why didn't you mention Hamas!!!?' are always utterly silent on the IDF's Gazan activities (unless it's cheerleading them).
Let's see how he is in office, as he'll quite likely win now.
A Ugandan Indian immigrant, via South Africa, as a child; left wing student activist; former rapper; "Democratic Socialist"... he might or might not turn out to be a pragmatist.
If the Democratic establishment were less useless, and hadn't backed someone with several closets bursting with skeletons, he'd never have got the nomination.
Yes, the Dems have only themselves to blame. Is the deeply tarnished Cuomo really the best alternative they could find?!
This Mamdani guy is openly and viscerally hostile to Israel. That’s going to be a combustible situation when he seeks to govern the biggest Jewish city in the world
I'm technically Jewish (mother's line) and my mother was a passionate lifelong supporter of Israel and worked for UNRRA (which helped Jewish survivors of WW2) until it closed. I support Israel's continued existence and have no time for Hamas. But frankly the Israeli leadership has put me off for years, and I'm prepared to overlook hostility to Israel in candidates who I otherwise support. In running NYC, I shouldn't think that attitudes to Israel are a key factor.
I'm not sure of the ins and outs of free bus travel, though certain places in Europe have it (Luxembourg?).
Luxembourg does throughout their large nation. Malta does on most routes (but for the Maltese, not tourists). Gibraltar and Marbella again free for locals, but not for tourists. Belgrade, Tallinn, Kharkiv, Hasselt and Mons (those two are in Belgium) all have free public transport. Several smaller towns across Europe do too (including Dunkirk).
There are schemes in the US too, like parts of Washington state, Kansas City (which is, of course, in Missouri), Milwaukee, Irvine CA, and several others.
Doing some travel research, I see Kuala Lumpur has it for some bus routes, 1RM for foreigners
Morning PB. It may not be an exaggeration to say that democracy in Britain would be in as much danger as the US would be if its legislature had that number of Trumpists.
Many Reform candidates are authoritarians, and the lesson from the U.S. is that the majority would simply nod through any restrictions on democratic accountability.
Even though it is the usual suspects, quite startling how quickly the Islamist Maoist antisemitic bicycle rapid response unit has swung into action. What the Dems need is a US SKS that rightwing dimwits will vote for. They’ll bellow impotently after the event but to be frank, who cares?
Although I'm a fan of Adam Curtis, today's More or Less on Radio 4 — with the help of Sir John Curtice — debunked 4 of the claims that appeared in Adam Curtis's latest documentary Shifty, namely that Mrs Thatcher was behind in the polls during the 1979 election campaign until she made a speech on immigration. As Sir John Curtice pointed out, she wasn't behind in the polls at any stage during the 1979 election campaign, she didn't make a significant speech about immigration, (she made some in early 1978), and the main factor that put the Tories ahead in the polls in early 1979 was the Winter of Discontent. Sloppy of Adam Curtis to make those mistakes, especially when the documentary is about people believing in things that probably aren't true, ie. Thatcherism.
This is the real story of Mamdani's primary win. The Democratic centre needs to bin the old retreads they keep backing. If they want to keep left wing candidates out, then they need to find good candidates to run against them.
Although I'm a fan of Adam Curtis, today's More or Less on Radio 4 — with the help of Sir John Curtice — debunked 4 of the claims that appeared in Adam Curtis's latest documentary Shifty, namely that Mrs Thatcher was behind in the polls during the 1979 election campaign until she made a speech on immigration. As Sir John Curtice pointed out, she wasn't behind in the polls at any stage during the 1979 election campaign, she didn't make a significant speech about immigration, (she made some in early 1978), and the main factor that put the Tories ahead in the polls in early 1979 was the Winter of Discontent. Sloppy of Adam Curtis to make those mistakes, especially when the documentary is about people believing in things that probably aren't true, ie. Thatcherism.
I see Netanyahu has switched to bombing Syria again this morning. He's going to bomb people every day for the rest of his life if it keeps him out of prison, so somehow Israeli institutions and civil society are going to have to take action at some point, if they want to save their state from the Orthodox Mullahs, and Iranisation.
Wasn't even particularly close. Mandani is going to get the full Islamist Maoist antisemitic bicycle treatment now. Interesting to see how enthusiastically the centrist dad Dems will be about campaigning for him.
I’ve been rabbit-holing this guy. He’s…. interesting
The word “anti-Semite” is thrown around far too much, not least by Israelis seeking to deflect from Israeli barbarity - but this guy seems to be the real deal. An anti-Semite. After October 7th his first remarks were mainly aimed at evil Israel and he did not mention Hamas once
I am shocked that the National Review has uncovered this. It is a truth that should be universally aknowledged that the loudest screechers of 'Why didn't you mention Hamas!!!?' are always utterly silent on the IDF's Gazan activities (unless it's cheerleading them).
Let's see how he is in office, as he'll quite likely win now.
A Ugandan Indian immigrant, via South Africa, as a child; left wing student activist; former rapper; "Democratic Socialist"... he might or might not turn out to be a pragmatist.
If the Democratic establishment were less useless, and hadn't backed someone with several closets bursting with skeletons, he'd never have got the nomination.
Yes, the Dems have only themselves to blame. Is the deeply tarnished Cuomo really the best alternative they could find?!
This Mamdani guy is openly and viscerally hostile to Israel. That’s going to be a combustible situation when he seeks to govern the biggest Jewish city in the world
I'm technically Jewish (mother's line) and my mother was a passionate lifelong supporter of Israel and worked for UNRRA (which helped Jewish survivors of WW2) until it closed. I support Israel's continued existence and have no time for Hamas. But frankly the Israeli leadership has put me off for years, and I'm prepared to overlook hostility to Israel in candidates who I otherwise support. In running NYC, I shouldn't think that attitudes to Israel are a key factor.
This is not a surprise, considering that you were also an ardent fan of the anti Semitic Jeremy Corbyn
This is the real story of Mamdani's primary win. The Democratic centre needs to bin the old retreads they keep backing. If they want to keep left wing candidates out, then they need to find good candidates to run against them.
It was a bizarre decision, the guy has the double whammy of various scandals over COVID and large number of sexual harassment cases, where it was found he used his position of power to retaliate against when they made complaints.
It isn't he had an affair 20 years ago and now trying to make a come back.
This is the real story of Mamdani's primary win. The Democratic centre needs to bin the old retreads they keep backing. If they want to keep left wing candidates out, then they need to find good candidates to run against them.
I see Netanyahu has switched to bombing Syria again this morning. He's going to bomb people every day for the rest of his life if it keeps him out of prison, so somehow Israeli institutions and civil society are going to have to take action at some point, if they want to save their state from the Orthodox Mullahs, and Iranisation.
Syria is at war with Israel.
It would be great to see Syria end the war, but why you'd expect them to be at war with Israel but Israel not to take any action is beyond me.
I see Netanyahu has switched to bombing Syria again this morning. He's going to bomb people every day for the rest of his life if it keeps him out of prison, so somehow Israeli institutions and civil society are going to have to take action at some point, if they want to save their state from the Orthodox Mullahs, and Iranisation.
Unlike everywhere else in that part of the world he was elected by Israeli society. He is their choice, he is the Israeli revealed preference.
I see Netanyahu has switched to bombing Syria again this morning. He's going to bomb people every day for the rest of his life if it keeps him out of prison, so somehow Israeli institutions and civil society are going to have to take action at some point, if they want to save their state from the Orthodox Mullahs, and Iranisation.
Syria is at war with Israel.
It would be great to see Syria end the war, but why you'd expect them to be at war with Israel but Israel not to take any action is beyond me.
Syria and Israel have been mostly at peace for decades, even if there was no final peace treaty. Syria has taken almost zero offensive action against Israel under its new government. Israel's war aims in Syria are unclear at best.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a major streak of anti-Semitism
Eurostar has been hit with further delays after nearly half a mile of cables were vandalised in northern France. The country’s railway operator said more than 600 metres of line had been “stolen or severed” south of Lille.
I see Netanyahu has switched to bombing Syria again this morning. He's going to bomb people every day for the rest of his life if it keeps him out of prison, so somehow Israeli institutions and civil society are going to have to take action at some point, if they want to save their state from the Orthodox Mullahs, and Iranisation.
Unlike everywhere else in that part of the world he was elected by Israeli society. He is their choice.
Well, he was elected by the growing religious conservative bloc, whose population growth is outpacing the others, and he's already tried once to nobble the judiciary to restrict democracy on their behalf.
Israeli society is going to have a reckoning at some point : a permanent state of war to restrict democracy, and increasing domination by the Ultra--orthodox to support this, or the return to a more western tradition ; Enlightenment or Iran.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Presumably these infrastructure hits also black out US/UK clandestine bot accounts promoting dissent and regime change inside Iran.
Good thing we can rely on the well supported soft power broadcasting services like the BBC World Service and Voice of America...OK delete that last thought.
"It is clear enemies of the United Kingdom are using social media to foment division in this country."
Did anyone ever doubt this? They have been doing it for a decade.
The real question is, why aren't we doing it back to them twice as hard? That's the only way to deter dictatorships from attacking you.
If you shitpost worse about them, they will think twice. If they can drop a bomb on you, you need to be able to drop five bombs on them.
It's a terrible way to live, but it's how we need to think when dealing with the Russias, Chinas, Irans and North Koreas of this world.
Well, if Russia sews discord here, we might petition the government or vote in an election or referendum. If we sew discord in Russia or China, the most that can happen is an internal opponent falls out of a poorly-secured window.
A stitch in time ?
There's clear evidence of foreign trolls trying to needle democratic governments.
Eurostar has been hit with further delays after nearly half a mile of cables were vandalised in northern France. The country’s railway operator said more than 600 metres of line had been “stolen or severed” south of Lille.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Probably. However this guy is so extreme (he wants to “defund the police”) it is possible moderate New Yorkers will caucus against him and vote Republican
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Probably. However this guy is so extreme (he wants to “defund the police”) it is possible moderate New Yorkers will caucus against him and vote Republican
I see Netanyahu has switched to bombing Syria again this morning. He's going to bomb people every day for the rest of his life if it keeps him out of prison, so somehow Israeli institutions and civil society are going to have to take action at some point, if they want to save their state from the Orthodox Mullahs, and Iranisation.
Unlike everywhere else in that part of the world he was elected by Israeli society. He is their choice, he is the Israeli revealed preference.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Probably. However this guy is so extreme (he wants to “defund the police”) it is possible moderate New Yorkers will caucus against him and vote Republican
Unlikely - but possible
Wishcasting again
He’s quite hinduohobic as well. Wants to arrest Modi if he comes to NYC (or so it is claimed on X)
However the future NYC mayor is also, apparently, an arsenal fan
It makes no difference whether your sample is 1,200 or 12 million. What polling now tells you about an election in about June 2029 is precisely Zero.
A bit of effort put into qualitative research would be infinitely more useful. Why, digging as deeply as possible, do people think what they think about how they would vote is the interesting issue. The numbers become important much closer to 2029.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Probably. However this guy is so extreme (he wants to “defund the police”) it is possible moderate New Yorkers will caucus against him and vote Republican
Unlikely - but possible
Wishcasting again
He’s quite hinduohobic as well. Wants to arrest Modi if he comes to NYC (or so it is claimed on X)
However the future NYC mayor is also, apparently, an arsenal fan
If those numbers hold, as the election approaches, I'd expect that a lot of centre left/left votes would gravitate to Labour. But, it would be goodnight for the Conservatives. If they're 10%+ behind Reform, people won't be switching back to them from Reform, and it's more likely that voters would go in the other direction.
I see Netanyahu has switched to bombing Syria again this morning. He's going to bomb people every day for the rest of his life if it keeps him out of prison, so somehow Israeli institutions and civil society are going to have to take action at some point, if they want to save their state from the Orthodox Mullahs, and Iranisation.
Syria is at war with Israel.
It would be great to see Syria end the war, but why you'd expect them to be at war with Israel but Israel not to take any action is beyond me.
Syria is not at war with Israel & is, in fact, trying its best to improve relations with Israel. It's amazing how you are just perpetually stuck in this mindset of "Syria is evil".
Israeli National Security Advisor Hanegbi confirms "daily dialogue at all levels between Israel and Syria," adds Syria and Lebanon candidates for Abraham Accords, according to Israeli news outlets.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Probably. However this guy is so extreme (he wants to “defund the police”) it is possible moderate New Yorkers will caucus against him and vote Republican
Unlikely - but possible
Wishcasting again
He’s quite hinduohobic as well. Wants to arrest Modi if he comes to NYC (or so it is claimed on X)
However the future NYC mayor is also, apparently, an arsenal fan
As was Osama. A very bad sign.
It’s really weird how Arsenal attract worldwide radical chic lefties and Islamists. Because they definitely do
It makes no difference whether your sample is 1,200 or 12 million. What polling now tells you about an election in about June 2029 is precisely Zero.
A bit of effort put into qualitative research would be infinitely more useful. Why, digging as deeply as possible, do people think what they think about how they would vote is the interesting issue. The numbers become important much closer to 2029.
What I take from your comment is that you're not particularly a fan of Farage and RefUK. Am I wrong?
Tomorrow's demonstration will be coupled with what may be the most serious backbench rebellion of this administration so far. By Friday, 67 Labour MPs had signed an amendment to the Bill to kill its two most contentious clauses. It is open to others to add their names tomorrow.
If they were all to vote against the Government, it would be a bigger rebellion even than the one provoked last year by a proposed cut in benefits for single mothers.
Cabinet Ministers are determined to defeat the forces ranged against them, but welfare reform has not been a Blair success story. Tory leader William Hague has even suggested that it could be Blair's 'Vietnam'.
The 1997 Labour election manifesto promised to curb the rising cost of benefits and release money for health, education and other services. But working out how has caused ferocious rows. In opposition, the then Social Security spokesman Chris Smith was abruptly shoved aside after quarrelling with Shadow Chancellor Gordon Brown.
Smith was replaced by Harriet Harman, but in government she fell out with her deputy, Frank Field, and they were both sacked last July.
The Social Security Secretary, Alistair Darling, is a Blairite toughie whose previous job was at the Treasury, working with Brown on limiting public spending. Darling is in no mood to give in. He accuses the rebels of focusing on one disliked part of the Bill, and ignoring its more generous deal for the young severely disabled and new rules allowing men to claim widow's benefit for the first time.
He said: 'We are proposing a fair and balanced package. At the same time, we are making sure the benefits system reflects modern conditions. People cannot pick and choose. We were elected to reform the welfare state, and that is what we intend to do.'
Far from falling, the cost of welfare is scheduled to rise by £40 billion over the next three years. Benefits for the disabled now cost £25bn. Incapacity benefit is intended to help those who have been stopped from working because of an accident or illness. Yet four out of 10 people starting to receive it now are leaving unemployment rather than leaving work. In many cases, they have been signed off as sick by sympathetic GPs to give them extra money.
The Government therefore says anyone who has failed to pay any National Insurance contributions for two years will not get incapacity benefit, and those on occupational pensions of more than £50 a week will have part of their benefit docked.
I suppose one difference is that in 1999 government debt was £362bn and now its £2,867bn.
This came from the Thatcher government's tractor-statting the unemployment figures by getting anyone with a pulse, or a slightly irregular pulse, off the dole and onto some other benefit.
While the Blair government sent every young person with a pulse to university.
It makes no difference whether your sample is 1,200 or 12 million. What polling now tells you about an election in about June 2029 is precisely Zero.
A bit of effort put into qualitative research would be infinitely more useful. Why, digging as deeply as possible, do people think what they think about how they would vote is the interesting issue. The numbers become important much closer to 2029.
And on the calculators huge difference between reform 27 and reform in the 30s. A much smaller swing than seen during the campaign in 2024 sees very different seat outcomes. As does proper targeting. On those actual figures id exodus LD lower, Con higher, the LDs arent getting 70 seats again on 13% Still, will be fun to play with the calculator now it has new MRP data thrown in
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Probably. However this guy is so extreme (he wants to “defund the police”) it is possible moderate New Yorkers will caucus against him and vote Republican
Unlikely - but possible
Wishcasting again
He’s quite hinduohobic as well. Wants to arrest Modi if he comes to NYC (or so it is claimed on X)
However the future NYC mayor is also, apparently, an arsenal fan
Narendra Modi, then Chief Minister of Gujarat and later Prime Minister of India, was accused of condoning the violence, as were police and government officials who allegedly directed the rioters and gave lists of Muslim-owned properties to them.[19]
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Noting the speed and vehemence with which Leon has been deployed to smear him (before lunch even!), suggests optimism about his potential term as Mayor.
Though 2005 is only 20 years ago and there could strong independent candidates, so it may not be a Dem shoo-in.
Tomorrow's demonstration will be coupled with what may be the most serious backbench rebellion of this administration so far. By Friday, 67 Labour MPs had signed an amendment to the Bill to kill its two most contentious clauses. It is open to others to add their names tomorrow.
If they were all to vote against the Government, it would be a bigger rebellion even than the one provoked last year by a proposed cut in benefits for single mothers.
Cabinet Ministers are determined to defeat the forces ranged against them, but welfare reform has not been a Blair success story. Tory leader William Hague has even suggested that it could be Blair's 'Vietnam'.
The 1997 Labour election manifesto promised to curb the rising cost of benefits and release money for health, education and other services. But working out how has caused ferocious rows. In opposition, the then Social Security spokesman Chris Smith was abruptly shoved aside after quarrelling with Shadow Chancellor Gordon Brown.
Smith was replaced by Harriet Harman, but in government she fell out with her deputy, Frank Field, and they were both sacked last July.
The Social Security Secretary, Alistair Darling, is a Blairite toughie whose previous job was at the Treasury, working with Brown on limiting public spending. Darling is in no mood to give in. He accuses the rebels of focusing on one disliked part of the Bill, and ignoring its more generous deal for the young severely disabled and new rules allowing men to claim widow's benefit for the first time.
He said: 'We are proposing a fair and balanced package. At the same time, we are making sure the benefits system reflects modern conditions. People cannot pick and choose. We were elected to reform the welfare state, and that is what we intend to do.'
Far from falling, the cost of welfare is scheduled to rise by £40 billion over the next three years. Benefits for the disabled now cost £25bn. Incapacity benefit is intended to help those who have been stopped from working because of an accident or illness. Yet four out of 10 people starting to receive it now are leaving unemployment rather than leaving work. In many cases, they have been signed off as sick by sympathetic GPs to give them extra money.
The Government therefore says anyone who has failed to pay any National Insurance contributions for two years will not get incapacity benefit, and those on occupational pensions of more than £50 a week will have part of their benefit docked.
I suppose one difference is that in 1999 government debt was £362bn and now its £2,867bn.
This came from the Thatcher government's tractor-statting the unemployment figures by getting anyone with a pulse, or a slightly irregular pulse, off the dole and onto some other benefit.
While the Blair government sent every young person with a pulse to university.
The higher education entry rate among UK 18-year-olds increased from 24.7% in 2006 to 30.7% in 2015 and peaked at 38.2% in 2021. It fell back to 36.4% in 2024.
I see Netanyahu has switched to bombing Syria again this morning. He's going to bomb people every day for the rest of his life if it keeps him out of prison, so somehow Israeli institutions and civil society are going to have to take action at some point, if they want to save their state from the Orthodox Mullahs, and Iranisation.
Syria is at war with Israel.
It would be great to see Syria end the war, but why you'd expect them to be at war with Israel but Israel not to take any action is beyond me.
Syria is not at war with Israel & is, in fact, trying its best to improve relations with Israel. It's amazing how you are just perpetually stuck in this mindset of "Syria is evil".
Israeli National Security Advisor Hanegbi confirms "daily dialogue at all levels between Israel and Syria," adds Syria and Lebanon candidates for Abraham Accords, according to Israeli news outlets.
I really, really, really wish Syria and its new regime the best of luck. Yes, al-Shara was an Islamist terrorist. But *if* he can become relatively moderate and bring together that fractured country into a whole, then he should be lauded. Already he's far better than his predecessor, Assad.
Israeli actions are not helping him, and neither are continued sanctions.
(And yes, if he fails, or Syria goes back to being a hellhole, that can be dealt with then. But until then, we should be trying to help Syria.)
I see Netanyahu has switched to bombing Syria again this morning. He's going to bomb people every day for the rest of his life if it keeps him out of prison, so somehow Israeli institutions and civil society are going to have to take action at some point, if they want to save their state from the Orthodox Mullahs, and Iranisation.
Unlike everywhere else in that part of the world he was elected by Israeli society. He is their choice, he is the Israeli revealed preference.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Probably. However this guy is so extreme (he wants to “defund the police”) it is possible moderate New Yorkers will caucus against him and vote Republican
Unlikely - but possible
Wishcasting again
He’s quite hinduohobic as well. Wants to arrest Modi if he comes to NYC (or so it is claimed on X)
However the future NYC mayor is also, apparently, an arsenal fan
Narendra Modi, then Chief Minister of Gujarat and later Prime Minister of India, was accused of condoning the violence, as were police and government officials who allegedly directed the rioters and gave lists of Muslim-owned properties to them.[19]
I’m certainly not defending Modi. Nasty piece of work. An Indian Erdogan
I see Netanyahu has switched to bombing Syria again this morning. He's going to bomb people every day for the rest of his life if it keeps him out of prison, so somehow Israeli institutions and civil society are going to have to take action at some point, if they want to save their state from the Orthodox Mullahs, and Iranisation.
Unlike everywhere else in that part of the world he was elected by Israeli society. He is their choice, he is the Israeli revealed preference.
It makes no difference whether your sample is 1,200 or 12 million. What polling now tells you about an election in about June 2029 is precisely Zero.
A bit of effort put into qualitative research would be infinitely more useful. Why, digging as deeply as possible, do people think what they think about how they would vote is the interesting issue. The numbers become important much closer to 2029.
What I take from your comment is that you're not particularly a fan of Farage and RefUK. Am I wrong?
In fairness @Andy_JS , @algarkirk is exactly correct. Anything can happen between 2025 and 2029.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Noting the speed and vehemence with which Leon has been deployed to smear him (before lunch even!), suggests optimism about his potential term as Mayor.
Though 2005 is only 20 years ago and there could strong independent candidates, so it may not be a Dem shoo-in.
2005's not that long ago. I'd already retired (at 65) by then. I'm with the Tevye, in the Fiddler on the Roof: feels like only yesterday!
I see Netanyahu has switched to bombing Syria again this morning. He's going to bomb people every day for the rest of his life if it keeps him out of prison, so somehow Israeli institutions and civil society are going to have to take action at some point, if they want to save their state from the Orthodox Mullahs, and Iranisation.
Unlike everywhere else in that part of the world he was elected by Israeli society. He is their choice, he is the Israeli revealed preference.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Noting the speed and vehemence with which Leon has been deployed to smear him (before lunch even!), suggests optimism about his potential term as Mayor.
Though 2005 is only 20 years ago and there could strong independent candidates, so it may not be a Dem shoo-in.
It makes no difference whether your sample is 1,200 or 12 million. What polling now tells you about an election in about June 2029 is precisely Zero.
A bit of effort put into qualitative research would be infinitely more useful. Why, digging as deeply as possible, do people think what they think about how they would vote is the interesting issue. The numbers become important much closer to 2029.
What I take from your comment is that you're not particularly a fan of Farage and RefUK. Am I wrong?
In fairness @Andy_JS , @algarkirk is exactly correct. Anything can happen between 2025 and 2029.
"Anything can happen in the next half hour!" - Stingray intro.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Noting the speed and vehemence with which Leon has been deployed to smear him (before lunch even!), suggests optimism about his potential term as Mayor.
Though 2005 is only 20 years ago and there could strong independent candidates, so it may not be a Dem shoo-in.
Are there any native New Yorkers with experience of running a world city mayoralty who are searching for a new role in public life at the moment perhaps......
Esther Webber @estwebber · 2h Labour MP from 2024 intake: "Calling the welfare vote a confidence vote isn't the threat No.10 thinks it is at this stage"
Quite a varied list of local by-elections tomorrow. We have Lab defences in Chorley, Edinburgh, Greenwich, and Sheffield. There are Lib Dem defences in Mid Devon and Rother. There is a Con defence in South Stafford Shire. Finally there is an Ind defence in Basildon, an Ind elected as Lab in Stevenage, and a Community First non-defence in Rossendale.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Noting the speed and vehemence with which Leon has been deployed to smear him (before lunch even!), suggests optimism about his potential term as Mayor.
Though 2005 is only 20 years ago and there could strong independent candidates, so it may not be a Dem shoo-in.
Bruv, no one Deploys The Leon
That does sounds a bit too much like "Activate the Queen".
It makes no difference whether your sample is 1,200 or 12 million. What polling now tells you about an election in about June 2029 is precisely Zero.
A bit of effort put into qualitative research would be infinitely more useful. Why, digging as deeply as possible, do people think what they think about how they would vote is the interesting issue. The numbers become important much closer to 2029.
What I take from your comment is that you're not particularly a fan of Farage and RefUK. Am I wrong?
You are wrong to take any political opinion whatsoever from my comment. My political preferences (full disclosure: lifelong One Nation Tory currently voting Labour) and my views about the relevance of 2025 polling to 2029 events are, as the bookies would say, not linked contingencies.
I'll look again at Reform when three things are in place: a plausible front bench in waiting; a manifesto for 2029 which the IFS says is coherent and meaningful; and an absolute commitment to opposing remigration and adherence to rhetoric and policies aimed at maximising social and religious integration of the UK population.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
On the other hand, Mamdani has an astonishingly attractive wife.
Who'd have thought these test tube grown mouthers of meaninglessness would be bad at persuading even their own colleagues of stuff?
Saul Staniforth @SaulStaniforth "Yesterday you had almost every cabinet minister drafted in by Downing Street to get on the phone or hold meetings with Labour rebels & potential rebels & urge them to back down, to take their names off that wrecking amendment. And the effect is that things have only got worse"
Even if we do need to reduce the lead swingers welfare bill by £5b a year the way this Government have gone about it couldn't look worse. If it looks like performative cruelty against society's most vulnerable it probably is performative cruelty against society's vulnerable. The Labour rebels should take this to the brink. If Starmer falls, Starmer falls.
The oft repeated rebuttals to criticism of this is that 'we are the party of work, we believe people should not be left on the scrapheap, work is good for people', etc etc. In fact I strongly believe that a shitload of resources should be flung at the long-term unemployed and sick to help (emphasis on help) them back to some sort of independent working life, but is there any such programme attached to this anti skivers bill? If there is I've missed it.
You are absolutely correct. That is why this bill is both absurd and cruel.
However the Conservatives by using the bill as a weapon to damage Starmer, and in the way they are doing so, demonstrates they are wholly unserious people. Badenoch offering to support the bill on the provisional that there will be NO future tax rises amplified this notion.
Re your last paragraph, on the contrary Badenoch is playing the role of opposition perfectly on this
It's how politics works even if it upsets you
My point was welfare reform should be taken seriously. On their part this Government are at least taking it seriously even if their prescription is wholly wrong.
Your leader merely sees a political point scoring angle. Don't forget your party got us into this mess. Surely getting the policy right and opposing Government cruelty should be more important than winning Smartie points off Starmer.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Noting the speed and vehemence with which Leon has been deployed to smear him (before lunch even!), suggests optimism about his potential term as Mayor.
Though 2005 is only 20 years ago and there could strong independent candidates, so it may not be a Dem shoo-in.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Noting the speed and vehemence with which Leon has been deployed to smear him (before lunch even!), suggests optimism about his potential term as Mayor.
Though 2005 is only 20 years ago and there could strong independent candidates, so it may not be a Dem shoo-in.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
On the other hand, Mamdani has an astonishingly attractive wife.
So it is claimed but I demur. As others on X have pointed out she is quite “mid”. Whereas he is a strikingly handsome man. He could do better
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Are we being offered capitalism though? A lot of the money the top 1% has made in the last 30 years has been under socialisation of the losses and privatisation of the profits. That is a big change from the post war period.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
Yes. When you look at generational inequality - especially property - you can see why young people are being radicalised to the hard left
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
On the other hand, Mamdani has an astonishingly attractive wife.
Updated report from the Climate Change Committee. Consumption based emissions (ie including industry outsourced overseas etc) are below half of their 1990 level for the first time.
Particularly interesting are that afforestation and restoration of peat bogs are both up by ~half since 2023. Credit where it is due - that was the Sunak Government. Great, but that's one to watch.
The politics of Ref UK are interesting on this. In 2021 the manifesto included addressing Net Zero. A couple of million from the fossil fuel industry later, and we have what we have now. IMO they are a weathercock not a signpost, and once it is clear that the wind is blowing the other way their direction will change again like a shot.
Mamdani hasn’t even got the excuse of being a crusty old lefty like Corbyn. He’s a nepo-baby Millennnial Marxist Muslim with a dash of anti-Semitism
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Looks like NYC will join London in having a Muslim socialist Mayor then, both no doubt hated by Trump. Once you have won the Democratic nomination you effectively win the Mayoralty at the moment, a Republican hasn't won the NYC Mayoralty since Bloomberg in 2005
Noting the speed and vehemence with which Leon has been deployed to smear him (before lunch even!), suggests optimism about his potential term as Mayor.
Though 2005 is only 20 years ago and there could strong independent candidates, so it may not be a Dem shoo-in.
Bruv, no one Deploys The Leon
"Release the Leon!"
Wake it and give it a couple of coffee’s first, though?
Interesting fact update. The US FMS catalog has the nickname “The Peace Programme.” As in - “Good poodle. Now have a Peace of this at mates rates.”
Buying something off the US FMS catalog this month has absolutely nothing to do with the latest Chagos Island deal last month. No siree. No linkage between the two things at all. Absolutely none. History where UK is pet poodle of US and their golden goose that keeps buying is DEFINITELY NOT being repeated here. Nope. Nope.
You wanna understand why Starmer and UK is Trumps favourite pet poodle? It remains mystery. Nothing utterly transparent here at all. Nope.
There has to be a finite number of big party stories in GB at any one time. Top one is Reform could form a government; joint next are Tories could go extinct, and Labour are holding the baby of government at a bad time for fixing everything while having assets of minus £2.3 trillion to do it with.
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
I see Netanyahu has switched to bombing Syria again this morning. He's going to bomb people every day for the rest of his life if it keeps him out of prison, so somehow Israeli institutions and civil society are going to have to take action at some point, if they want to save their state from the Orthodox Mullahs, and Iranisation.
Surely it would be easier for Bibi if he just bombed all the Israeli prisons and courts; quicker, cheaper and if the aim is to keep him out of prison, job done.
Comments
What a disgrace.
How sad for New York, a city known for a high Jewish population, that it has devolved to having him as a major candidate. Depressing.
Leads to a bigger question, though. Why do elected politicians cede so much power to unelected hired helps?
We're seeing it with McSweeney, but we also saw it with Cummings and Nick Timothy.
https://x.com/stephenm/status/1937765004243271721
The commentary about NYC Democrats nominating an anarchist-socialist for Mayor omits one point: how unchecked migration fundamentally remade the NYC electorate. Democrats change politics by changing voters. That’s how you turn a city that defined US dominance into what it is now.
There are schemes in the US too, like parts of Washington state, Kansas City (which is, of course, in Missouri), Milwaukee, Irvine CA, and several others.
And he says… this. It’s vile
RefUK 377
Lab 118
LD 69
Con 29
SNP 26
Ind 5
PC 4
Grn 4
Oth 18
Percentages
RefUK 31%
Lab 22%
Con 19%
LD 13%
Grn 9%
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20250625.html
The bonkers policy is this vague setting up state owned supermarkets. We all see in history what happens there.
exaggeration to say that democracy in Britain would be in as much danger as the US would be if its legislature had that number of Trumpists.
Many Reform candidates are authoritarians, and the lesson from the U.S. is that the majority would simply nod through any restrictions on democratic accountability.
What the Dems need is a US SKS that rightwing dimwits will vote for. They’ll bellow impotently after the event but to be frank, who cares?
The Democratic centre needs to bin the old retreads they keep backing. If they want to keep left wing candidates out, then they need to find good candidates to run against them.
Former critics who demanded Cuomo resign are now endorsing him for New York mayor
A POLITICO review of Cuomo’s touted endorsers found that few of them stood by him in 2021.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/18/cuomo-former-critics-endorsements-new-york-mayor-00403346
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0TYvzAHzwo
He's going to bomb people every day for the rest of his life if it keeps him out of prison, so somehow Israeli institutions and civil society are going to have to take action at some point, if they want to save their state from the Orthodox Mullahs, and Iranisation.
It isn't he had an affair 20 years ago and now trying to make a come back.
Interviewer: you strongly disassociated yourself from Cuomo in 2021, what’s changed?
Uncomfortably long silence.
Union rep eventually: gobble, stutter, stammer.
If you’re going to back bad uns (see also Starmerites and their policies) you’d better have a good story to tell about it.
It would be great to see Syria end the war, but why you'd expect them to be at war with Israel but Israel not to take any action is beyond me.
For those with a hangover from yesterday's Hannan Day celebrations.
Good Morning.
https://bsky.app/profile/rolandmcs.bsky.social/post/3lsfy44ajus2g
Go on, then, Bart, answer these questions:
What has Syria done to attack Israel in 2025?
What are Israel's war aims in Syria?
wtf have NYC Dems elected
Again.
Israeli society is going to have a reckoning at some point : a permanent state of war to restrict democracy, and increasing domination by the Ultra--orthodox to support this, or the return to a more western tradition ; Enlightenment or Iran.
Good thing we can rely on the well supported soft power broadcasting services like the BBC World Service and Voice of America...OK delete that last thought.
Unlikely - but possible
Duncan Lamont
@duncanlamont2.bsky.social
Only 3% of median-income Millennial households (27-42 year olds) are predicted to achieve "moderate" living standards in retirement
https://bsky.app/profile/duncanlamont2.bsky.social/post/3lsgebezvqc24
However the future NYC mayor is also, apparently, an arsenal fan
A bit of effort put into qualitative research would be infinitely more useful. Why, digging as deeply as possible, do people think what they think about how they would vote is the interesting issue. The numbers become important much closer to 2029.
Sam Freedman
@samfr.bsky.social
A little bet on AOC to be the Democratic nominee for 2028.....
https://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3lsgblfgen32s
Israeli National Security Advisor Hanegbi confirms "daily dialogue at all levels between Israel and Syria," adds Syria and Lebanon candidates for Abraham Accords, according to Israeli news outlets.
https://x.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1937520758076449129
A much smaller swing than seen during the campaign in 2024 sees very different seat outcomes. As does proper targeting.
On those actual figures id exodus LD lower, Con higher, the LDs arent getting 70 seats again on 13%
Still, will be fun to play with the calculator now it has new MRP data thrown in
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Gujarat_riots
Narendra Modi, then Chief Minister of Gujarat and later Prime Minister of India, was accused of condoning the violence, as were police and government officials who allegedly directed the rioters and gave lists of Muslim-owned properties to them.[19]
Though 2005 is only 20 years ago and there could strong independent candidates, so it may not be a Dem shoo-in.
The higher education entry rate among UK 18-year-olds increased from 24.7% in 2006 to 30.7% in 2015 and peaked at 38.2% in 2021. It fell back to 36.4% in 2024.
Israeli actions are not helping him, and neither are continued sanctions.
(And yes, if he fails, or Syria goes back to being a hellhole, that can be dealt with then. But until then, we should be trying to help Syria.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_in_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa
https://youtu.be/ylCnpZHW79c?si=RtLJbcJK3uPGHRtn
Just like it was up to the people of London to elect Khan (three times).
Labour councillor joins The Greens, a young bloke in London.
Is this of interest or is it on Reforms councillors comings and goings that bothers this place ?
https://x.com/liamshrivastava/status/1937771421012492382?s=61
NI on steroids.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consociationalism
@estwebber
·
2h
Labour MP from 2024 intake: "Calling the welfare vote a confidence vote isn't the threat No.10 thinks it is at this stage"
https://x.com/estwebber/status/1937787440267149340
“never thought I’d be more hopeful about socialism than arsenal and yet here we are”
https://x.com/zohrankmamdani/status/1330641667381223429?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
https://liberalengland.blogspot.com/2025/06/guest-post-councillor-defections.html
https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/1200/general-councillors-notable-defections?page=925
But as Leon points out, whole generations have essentially given up believing in capitalism, as it seems to have stopped working for anyone but greedy boomers and crypto-fascists.
https://x.com/shashj/status/1937818904560062749
I'll look again at Reform when three things are in place: a plausible front bench in waiting; a manifesto for 2029 which the IFS says is coherent and meaningful; and an absolute commitment to opposing remigration and adherence to rhetoric and policies aimed at maximising social and religious integration of the UK population.
When you look at insane levels of immigration - across the west, some of it deeply malignant - you can see why other young people are being radicalised to the hard right
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold
*stares bleakly out of the train window at Truro*
Your leader merely sees a political point scoring angle. Don't forget your party got us into this mess. Surely getting the policy right and opposing Government cruelty should be more important than winning Smartie points off Starmer.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy8g98zxgg6o
Particularly interesting are that afforestation and restoration of peat bogs are both up by ~half since 2023. Credit where it is due - that was the Sunak Government. Great, but that's one to watch.
https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/progress-in-reducing-emissions-2025-report-to-parliament/
BBC Report:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqjqzj8rnvyo#comments
I can confirm that the Daily Mail comments box has decamped to the BBC.
The politics of Ref UK are interesting on this. In 2021 the manifesto included addressing Net Zero. A couple of million from the fossil fuel industry later, and we have what we have now. IMO they are a weathercock not a signpost, and once it is clear that the wind is blowing the other way their direction will change again like a shot.
Interesting fact update. The US FMS catalog has the nickname “The Peace Programme.”
As in - “Good poodle. Now have a Peace of this at mates rates.”
Buying something off the US FMS catalog this month has absolutely nothing to do with the latest Chagos Island deal last month. No siree. No linkage between the two things at all. Absolutely none. History where UK is pet poodle of US and their golden goose that keeps buying is DEFINITELY NOT being repeated here. Nope. Nope.
You wanna understand why Starmer and UK is Trumps favourite pet poodle? It remains mystery.
Nothing utterly transparent here at all. Nope.
It should come as no surprise to any of us.
I've been away for a few weeks as my previous laptop clapped out and will share some thoughts later about what has been going on.
The news priorities follow inexorably.
He might make second but will be happy with fourth...