I didn’t follow the news around what Trump said he was going to do regarding tariffs, but if it was known that he intended to hit every country with them, why didn’t the world and his wife short the companies that were likely to be affected, o as well as the FTSE etc?
Presumably because people thought Trump would be talked out of it.
Follow FTSE 250 - there is a company in the green!
It's called Ruffer Investment.
Its website says: "Ruffer Investment Company Limited has a simple but unusual aim – to generate consistent positive returns, however financial markets are performing."
I met Mr Ruffer once, and had a very interesting conversation with him. He’s n interesting, if unusual, guy, and I’ve had a decent holding in his trust since then. I too noticed it is the only thing going up today. He’s been expecting some sort of crash for some time, and holds a fair bit of gold.
He does a lot of philanthropy, as well, although sadly much of it is religious
I wouldn’t say what he is doing in Bishop Auckland is particularly religious - but it focuses on the Bishop’s palace so it’s not surprising that it has a museum that focuses on faith there.
The fact he’s continuing to keep things going when I don’t think it’s working that well is something that I highly respect
As Ruffer said back at the turn of the year, “We have built a portfolio that should thrive if conditions markedly worsen….”
The irony is that the threats he foresaw were mostly economic, whereas deliverance has arrived from something almost entirely political.
I didn’t follow the news around what Trump said he was going to do regarding tariffs, but if it was known that he intended to hit every country with them, why didn’t the world and his wife short the companies that were likely to be affected, o as well as the FTSE etc?
Presumably because people thought Trump would be talked out of it.
That, and nobody knew the level and depths of the tariffs would be.
A tariff of 1% would be difficult but able to absorbed by most, 20% less so.
Also the key factor, there’s no rhyme nor reason to Trump’s approach to his (in)consistency as this confirms.
I didn’t follow the news around what Trump said he was going to do regarding tariffs, but if it was known that he intended to hit every country with them, why didn’t the world and his wife short the companies that were likely to be affected, o as well as the FTSE etc?
I don't think even the pessimists expected anything quite as bananas as what Trump came up with. And the "I regard any trade deficit as a loss" is so batshit it makes any realistic negotiation with him impossible.
A 10% tariff across the board, for example, might have encouraged, over time, onshoring of production at the margin, and would have raised a shitload of tax, while provoking only a fraction of the current response. While a lot of people (including me) would have argued against it, it wouldn't have been regarded as utterly irrational.
As it is, we're dealing with a man who has completely lost what little sense he had.
(FWIW, I did actually predict that he might crater the world economy with tariffs, before the election. Which was labelled TDS by some.)
Oh indeed:
The real Trump Derangement Sydrome, it turns out, was thinking that he wouldn't act in a batshit crazy way.
Follow FTSE 250 - there is a company in the green!
It's called Ruffer Investment.
Its website says: "Ruffer Investment Company Limited has a simple but unusual aim – to generate consistent positive returns, however financial markets are performing."
I met Mr Ruffer once, and had a very interesting conversation with him. He’s n interesting, if unusual, guy, and I’ve had a decent holding in his trust since then. I too noticed it is the only thing going up today. He’s been expecting some sort of crash for some time, and holds a fair bit of gold.
He does a lot of philanthropy, as well, although sadly much of it is religious
I wouldn’t say what he is doing in Bishop Auckland is particularly religious - but it focuses on the Bishop’s palace so it’s not surprising that it has a museum that focuses on faith there.
The fact he’s continuing to keep things going when I don’t think it’s working that well is something that I highly respect
As Ruffer said back at the turn of the year, “We have built a portfolio that should thrive if conditions markedly worsen….”
The irony is that the threats he foresaw were mostly economic, whereas deliverance has arrived from something almost entirely political.
The people who look after my house deposit fund, Capital Gearing Trust - who do the same sort of wealth-preservation thing as Ruffer - spent years during Covid warning about inflation coming when others didn't. Then, when inflation came, they had the worst couple of years in decades. Being right when everyone else is wrong isn't enough it seems.
I didn’t follow the news around what Trump said he was going to do regarding tariffs, but if it was known that he intended to hit every country with them, why didn’t the world and his wife short the companies that were likely to be affected, o as well as the FTSE etc?
I don't think even the pessimists expected anything quite as bananas as what Trump came up with. And the "I regard any trade deficit as a loss" is so batshit it makes any realistic negotiation with him impossible.
A 10% tariff across the board, for example, might have encouraged, over time, onshoring of production at the margin, and would have raised a shitload of tax, while provoking only a fraction of the current response. While a lot of people (including me) would have argued against it, it wouldn't have been regarded as utterly irrational.
As it is, we're dealing with a man who has completely lost what little sense he had.
(FWIW, I did actually predict that he might crater the world economy with tariffs, before the election. Which was labelled TDS by some.)
Oh indeed:
The real Trump Derangement Sydrome, it turns out, was thinking that he wouldn't act in a batshit crazy way.
We knew Trump was going to surprise on the downside the minute our Leon started wibbling on about precisely the opposite.
Follow FTSE 250 - there is a company in the green!
It's called Ruffer Investment.
Its website says: "Ruffer Investment Company Limited has a simple but unusual aim – to generate consistent positive returns, however financial markets are performing."
I met Mr Ruffer once, and had a very interesting conversation with him. He’s n interesting, if unusual, guy, and I’ve had a decent holding in his trust since then. I too noticed it is the only thing going up today. He’s been expecting some sort of crash for some time, and holds a fair bit of gold.
He does a lot of philanthropy, as well, although sadly much of it is religious
He was a Director of an investment trust that I used to manage, and I spent a lot of time with him over the years. We couldn't have been more different: I was always looking for the exciting, shiny, new techy thing; he was always worried about economic catastrophe.
But, ultimately, he was a super smart, good guy, I really enjoyed spending time with.
Follow FTSE 250 - there is a company in the green!
It's called Ruffer Investment.
Its website says: "Ruffer Investment Company Limited has a simple but unusual aim – to generate consistent positive returns, however financial markets are performing."
I met Mr Ruffer once, and had a very interesting conversation with him. He’s an interesting, if unusual, guy, and I’ve had a decent holding in his trust since then. I too noticed it is the only thing going up today. He’s been expecting some sort of crash for some time, and holds a fair bit of gold.
He does a lot of philanthropy, as well, although sadly much of it is religious
It seems overwhelmingly to be heritage and social action (eg Church Urban Fund - which is an outstanding organisation). He was the one who provided the funds to keep the Zurbarán paintings in Durham some years - at the time these were the default brickbat in tabloid attacks on the Church of England. Plus:
Ruffer gave an estimated £160 million to the development of Bishop Auckland Town in 2020. In total he has given one third of his wealth to the development of the Town.
I'm sure that @Taz or @eek can explain more, but an investment like that would go a significant way towards mitigating 20 years of salami-slicing of a local authority.
I wish we had a few like that - traditionally working class towns in the Midlands and North suffer badly from a lack of anchor institutions for the local economy, and a few very rich people with consciences can help mitigate.
Looks like Elon is off the Trump train, he has just posted a video from Milton Friedman explaining the power of free trade to make pencils as an example of how free trade is the best for everybody.
I noted this too
Can't be long until....Elon, i never like him, tiny man, everybody calls him Elon the idiot, playing with his little toy rockets....
Elon probably praying to be dumped now tbh.
Bit late for him to have a rethink. It's like with those German magnates who thought they could control Hitler.
I was reading somewhere that during WWI when the Germans retreated from a trench they left someone with a machine-gun to fire at the Allied troops when they came into the trench. He had limited ammunition and was expected to surrender when it ran out. Unfortunately for him the general response to his surrender was "too late, mate." Bang!
Just badly phrased, I think. Germans did indeed leave machine gunners behind when retreating, but they would be firing across no mans land, not in the trenches.
Trump’s decision to single-handedly hobble the world economy and immiserate tens of millions of Americans has presented his fellow Republicans with a stark choice. Do they continue to kiss his orange butt and slavishly nod along to every nonsensical whim of their idiot Golfer King as he leads them into a recession and almost certain electoral apocalypse? Or do they defy him, splitting the party and opening themselves to a primary challenge … and possible electoral apocalypse?
The good news is that some GOP senators and members of Congress are actually disturbed enough by the prospect of their voters starving in the street that they have taken steps to push back against this grotesquely self-destructive trade policy. The not so good news is that the pushback is hesitant and half-hearted — and the majority of the party remains ready to torture and impoverish their constituents for the greater glory of Trump.
The tariffs, and the quick slide into economic calamity, have sparked real resistance. They’ve also demonstrated just how craven and/or hypnotized the GOP has become, and the extent to which most Republicans would do anything — literally anything — rather than point out that the emperor is wearing a grotesque meat suit made of the skin of his constituents.
Republican dissent is a hopeful sign. The hard limits on it, though, given the magnitude of the crisis, are a bleak reminder of how we ended up in this nightmare to begin with. Any successful resistance is going to require a fair number of Republicans to abandon their orange idol. It’s good to see them starting to do that. But it’s undeniably grim that the fate of the nation rests to any degree at all on these, gutless, spineless, christofascist quislings.
Follow FTSE 250 - there is a company in the green!
It's called Ruffer Investment.
Its website says: "Ruffer Investment Company Limited has a simple but unusual aim – to generate consistent positive returns, however financial markets are performing."
I met Mr Ruffer once, and had a very interesting conversation with him. He’s an interesting, if unusual, guy, and I’ve had a decent holding in his trust since then. I too noticed it is the only thing going up today. He’s been expecting some sort of crash for some time, and holds a fair bit of gold.
He does a lot of philanthropy, as well, although sadly much of it is religious
It seems overwhelmingly to be heritage and social action (eg Church Urban Fund - which is an outstanding organisation). He was the one who provided the funds to keep the Zurbarán paintings in Durham some years - at the time these were the default brickbat in tabloid attacks on the Church of England. Plus:
Ruffer gave an estimated £160 million to the development of Bishop Auckland Town in 2020. In total he has given one third of his wealth to the development of the Town.
I'm sure that @Taz or @eek can explain more, but an investment like that would go a significant way towards mitigating 20 years of salami-slicing of a local authority.
I wish we had a few like that - traditionally working class towns in the Midlands and North suffer badly from a lack of anchor institutions for the local economy, and a few very rich people with consciences can help mitigate.
It’s lovely but the museums are very, very middle class so the locals don’t really like it.
The other problem is that Bishop Auckland is a pig to drive round so given the choice I’m more likely to head to Durham or the Bowes Museum in Barnard Castle. Add on Beamish and there is a lot of local attractions where locals and tourists can spend time and money so Bishop Auckland has a very tough battle compared to other places
Follow FTSE 250 - there is a company in the green!
It's called Ruffer Investment.
Its website says: "Ruffer Investment Company Limited has a simple but unusual aim – to generate consistent positive returns, however financial markets are performing."
I met Mr Ruffer once, and had a very interesting conversation with him. He’s n interesting, if unusual, guy, and I’ve had a decent holding in his trust since then. I too noticed it is the only thing going up today. He’s been expecting some sort of crash for some time, and holds a fair bit of gold.
He does a lot of philanthropy, as well, although sadly much of it is religious
I wouldn’t say what he is doing in Bishop Auckland is particularly religious - but it focuses on the Bishop’s palace so it’s not surprising that it has a museum that focuses on faith there.
The fact he’s continuing to keep things going when I don’t think it’s working that well is something that I highly respect
As Ruffer said back at the turn of the year, “We have built a portfolio that should thrive if conditions markedly worsen….”
The irony is that the threats he foresaw were mostly economic, whereas deliverance has arrived from something almost entirely political.
The people who look after my house deposit fund, Capital Gearing Trust - who do the same sort of wealth-preservation thing as Ruffer - spent years during Covid warning about inflation coming when others didn't. Then, when inflation came, they had the worst couple of years in decades. Being right when everyone else is wrong isn't enough it seems.
The problem with expecting a crash is that it usually takes much longer to arrive than you expect, and you can lose a lot of money during the period when it fails to arrive.
Moneyweek magazine’s perpetual forecasts of a UK house price collapse during the 2010s is a classic example; following their advice would have been suicidal.
Ruffer has been expecting a crash for some time, seeing that the issues thrown up by the 2008 debt crisis were never resolved and the reliance on debt since then has inexorably increased.
Whether Trump’s idiocy delivering the crash means he was right, or simply lucky, is the question….
I don't think anything Trump has done (or not done) so far is going to significantly alter his level of support with the people who voted for him in November.
I didn’t follow the news around what Trump said he was going to do regarding tariffs, but if it was known that he intended to hit every country with them, why didn’t the world and his wife short the companies that were likely to be affected, o as well as the FTSE etc?
I don't think even the pessimists expected anything quite as bananas as what Trump came up with. And the "I regard any trade deficit as a loss" is so batshit it makes any realistic negotiation with him impossible.
A 10% tariff across the board, for example, might have encouraged, over time, onshoring of production at the margin, and would have raised a shitload of tax, while provoking only a fraction of the current response. While a lot of people (including me) would have argued against it, it wouldn't have been regarded as utterly irrational.
As it is, we're dealing with a man who has completely lost what little sense he had.
(FWIW, I did actually predict that he might crater the world economy with tariffs, before the election. Which was labelled TDS by some.)
Oh indeed:
The real Trump Derangement Sydrome, it turns out, was thinking that he wouldn't act in a batshit crazy way.
From the perspective of now, TDS was a masterstroke of branding. There was some validity in the early days, but Deranged-by-Trump has become a deflection for Deranged-acts-by-Trump.
But the consequences of admitting that he is a bad'un have been too much for his supporters to bear.
Munchau is absolutely right that the reason that Germany and China run trade surpluses is that they implement policies that surpress consumption (or, to put it another way, they encourage saving).
And they do it to an excessive extent, which unbalances their economies.
However, he (Munchau) is slightly guilty of the Sole Actor Fallacy: that is, assuming it is something that the Germans do to America. It is perfectly possible for a US government to implement policies that do the same.
The correct way out of the current morass is for Germany and China to encourage domestic consumption (I've suggested ways to do this in the past), and for the US to implement measures that encourage greater household savings. The US government could also follow the Michael Pettis strategy of limiting the flow of foreign capital into the US, which would have a similar effect. (Because it is, effectively, the savings of Germans and Chinese that flow into US assets. If you could limit that flow, you would reduce the ability of US consumers to spend.)
There's just one issue with this rebalancing strategy - and that is that it is likely to be extremely uncomfortable for the US in the short term, even if it results in a more balanced economy down the line.
Looks like Elon is off the Trump train, he has just posted a video from Milton Friedman explaining the power of free trade to make pencils as an example of how free trade is the best for everybody.
I noted this too
Can't be long until....Elon, i never like him, tiny man, everybody calls him Elon the idiot, playing with his little toy rockets....
Elon probably praying to be dumped now tbh.
Bit late for him to have a rethink. It's like with those German magnates who thought they could control Hitler.
I was reading somewhere that during WWI when the Germans retreated from a trench they left someone with a machine-gun to fire at the Allied troops when they came into the trench. He had limited ammunition and was expected to surrender when it ran out. Unfortunately for him the general response to his surrender was "too late, mate." Bang!
Machine guns were sited so as to have wide fields of fire. So that multiple guns could be brought be bear on a particular spot. This wasn't about shooting down the trench, but keeping the area in front of the trenches swept with bullets.
Hence the Race To The Parapet during an attack - the attackers, waiting in No Mans Land, behind the artillery barrage, vs the soldiers in the deep bunkers waiting for the barrage to finish. When it did, the attackers would charge, and the bunker occupants would race back to the surface to get their machine guns set up.
Eventually. The plan as per The Somme, etc was that there would be no-one left after the prolonged bombardment. Add in the green-ness of the attacking troops (many of them Kitchener's battalions) and the commanders thought it best to simplify what they were asked to do - with disastrous consequences. One of the great ironies of July 1st, 1916 is that after the mass slaughter, many small packets of soldiers carried on attacking with somewhat greater success, as they were infiltrating, probing for weak spots rather than simply assaulting all along the line.
Later in the war much shorter barrages, combined with creeping barrages, and the use of surprise, led to the British (including the dominions) achieving a way of victory on the Western Front. And if you pay attention, its strikingly similar to how Monty fought in WW2.
I think Trump is closer to Hermann Goering than Hitler, except that Goering was a faithful husband and a war hero not a draft dodger.
For JD Vance, I suggest Himmler.
So who is this regime's Doenitz, and will it do them any good?
The quotes borked - my editing. To be clear the Twitter suggestion was isam .
Doenitz? Hmmm.
Are there any competentlong serving senior military officers in the regime? Doenitz had a continuous military career from WW1 to WW2 if I recall. Doenitz was also a Nazi, but joined (checking) in 1933 when Hitler was already on the way to power.
Looks like Elon is off the Trump train, he has just posted a video from Milton Friedman explaining the power of free trade to make pencils as an example of how free trade is the best for everybody.
I noted this too
Can't be long until....Elon, i never like him, tiny man, everybody calls him Elon the idiot, playing with his little toy rockets....
Elon probably praying to be dumped now tbh.
Bit late for him to have a rethink. It's like with those German magnates who thought they could control Hitler.
I was reading somewhere that during WWI when the Germans retreated from a trench they left someone with a machine-gun to fire at the Allied troops when they came into the trench. He had limited ammunition and was expected to surrender when it ran out. Unfortunately for him the general response to his surrender was "too late, mate." Bang!
Just badly phrased, I think. Germans did indeed leave machine gunners behind when retreating, but they would be firing across no mans land, not in the trenches.
Follow FTSE 250 - there is a company in the green!
It's called Ruffer Investment.
Its website says: "Ruffer Investment Company Limited has a simple but unusual aim – to generate consistent positive returns, however financial markets are performing."
I met Mr Ruffer once, and had a very interesting conversation with him. He’s an interesting, if unusual, guy, and I’ve had a decent holding in his trust since then. I too noticed it is the only thing going up today. He’s been expecting some sort of crash for some time, and holds a fair bit of gold.
He does a lot of philanthropy, as well, although sadly much of it is religious
It seems overwhelmingly to be heritage and social action (eg Church Urban Fund - which is an outstanding organisation). He was the one who provided the funds to keep the Zurbarán paintings in Durham some years - at the time these were the default brickbat in tabloid attacks on the Church of England. Plus:
Ruffer gave an estimated £160 million to the development of Bishop Auckland Town in 2020. In total he has given one third of his wealth to the development of the Town.
I'm sure that @Taz or @eek can explain more, but an investment like that would go a significant way towards mitigating 20 years of salami-slicing of a local authority.
I wish we had a few like that - traditionally working class towns in the Midlands and North suffer badly from a lack of anchor institutions for the local economy, and a few very rich people with consciences can help mitigate.
It’s lovely but the museums are very, very middle class so the locals don’t really like it.
The other problem is that Bishop Auckland is a pig to drive round so given the choice I’m more likely to head to Durham or the Bowes Museum in Barnard Castle. Add on Beamish and there is a lot of local attractions where locals and tourists can spend time and money so Bishop Auckland has a very tough battle compared to other places
I have it on good authority that Barnard Castle is especially good for sight seeing.
Trump’s decision to single-handedly hobble the world economy and immiserate tens of millions of Americans has presented his fellow Republicans with a stark choice. Do they continue to kiss his orange butt and slavishly nod along to every nonsensical whim of their idiot Golfer King as he leads them into a recession and almost certain electoral apocalypse? Or do they defy him, splitting the party and opening themselves to a primary challenge … and possible electoral apocalypse?
The good news is that some GOP senators and members of Congress are actually disturbed enough by the prospect of their voters starving in the street that they have taken steps to push back against this grotesquely self-destructive trade policy. The not so good news is that the pushback is hesitant and half-hearted — and the majority of the party remains ready to torture and impoverish their constituents for the greater glory of Trump.
The tariffs, and the quick slide into economic calamity, have sparked real resistance. They’ve also demonstrated just how craven and/or hypnotized the GOP has become, and the extent to which most Republicans would do anything — literally anything — rather than point out that the emperor is wearing a grotesque meat suit made of the skin of his constituents.
Republican dissent is a hopeful sign. The hard limits on it, though, given the magnitude of the crisis, are a bleak reminder of how we ended up in this nightmare to begin with. Any successful resistance is going to require a fair number of Republicans to abandon their orange idol. It’s good to see them starting to do that. But it’s undeniably grim that the fate of the nation rests to any degree at all on these, gutless, spineless, christofascist quislings.
Follow FTSE 250 - there is a company in the green!
It's called Ruffer Investment.
Its website says: "Ruffer Investment Company Limited has a simple but unusual aim – to generate consistent positive returns, however financial markets are performing."
I met Mr Ruffer once, and had a very interesting conversation with him. He’s an interesting, if unusual, guy, and I’ve had a decent holding in his trust since then. I too noticed it is the only thing going up today. He’s been expecting some sort of crash for some time, and holds a fair bit of gold.
He does a lot of philanthropy, as well, although sadly much of it is religious
It seems overwhelmingly to be heritage and social action (eg Church Urban Fund - which is an outstanding organisation). He was the one who provided the funds to keep the Zurbarán paintings in Durham some years - at the time these were the default brickbat in tabloid attacks on the Church of England. Plus:
Ruffer gave an estimated £160 million to the development of Bishop Auckland Town in 2020. In total he has given one third of his wealth to the development of the Town.
I'm sure that @Taz or @eek can explain more, but an investment like that would go a significant way towards mitigating 20 years of salami-slicing of a local authority.
I wish we had a few like that - traditionally working class towns in the Midlands and North suffer badly from a lack of anchor institutions for the local economy, and a few very rich people with consciences can help mitigate.
It’s lovely but the museums are very, very middle class so the locals don’t really like it.
The other problem is that Bishop Auckland is a pig to drive round so given the choice I’m more likely to head to Durham or the Bowes Museum in Barnard Castle. Add on Beamish and there is a lot of local attractions where locals and tourists can spend time and money so Bishop Auckland has a very tough battle compared to other places
I have it on good authority that Barnard Castle is especially good for sight seeing.
Looks like Elon is off the Trump train, he has just posted a video from Milton Friedman explaining the power of free trade to make pencils as an example of how free trade is the best for everybody.
I noted this too
Can't be long until....Elon, i never like him, tiny man, everybody calls him Elon the idiot, playing with his little toy rockets....
Elon probably praying to be dumped now tbh.
Bit late for him to have a rethink. It's like with those German magnates who thought they could control Hitler.
I was reading somewhere that during WWI when the Germans retreated from a trench they left someone with a machine-gun to fire at the Allied troops when they came into the trench. He had limited ammunition and was expected to surrender when it ran out. Unfortunately for him the general response to his surrender was "too late, mate." Bang!
Just badly phrased, I think. Germans did indeed leave machine gunners behind when retreating, but they would be firing across no mans land, not in the trenches.
Follow FTSE 250 - there is a company in the green!
It's called Ruffer Investment.
Its website says: "Ruffer Investment Company Limited has a simple but unusual aim – to generate consistent positive returns, however financial markets are performing."
I met Mr Ruffer once, and had a very interesting conversation with him. He’s an interesting, if unusual, guy, and I’ve had a decent holding in his trust since then. I too noticed it is the only thing going up today. He’s been expecting some sort of crash for some time, and holds a fair bit of gold.
He does a lot of philanthropy, as well, although sadly much of it is religious
It seems overwhelmingly to be heritage and social action (eg Church Urban Fund - which is an outstanding organisation). He was the one who provided the funds to keep the Zurbarán paintings in Durham some years - at the time these were the default brickbat in tabloid attacks on the Church of England. Plus:
Ruffer gave an estimated £160 million to the development of Bishop Auckland Town in 2020. In total he has given one third of his wealth to the development of the Town.
I'm sure that @Taz or @eek can explain more, but an investment like that would go a significant way towards mitigating 20 years of salami-slicing of a local authority.
I wish we had a few like that - traditionally working class towns in the Midlands and North suffer badly from a lack of anchor institutions for the local economy, and a few very rich people with consciences can help mitigate.
Yes, he’s undoubtedly a good guy and funds much good work, in between his day job of spending decades predicting the perpetually oncoming economic collapse.
It’s just a shame that he has to bring his religion into it.
Regardless, his fund remains a decent investment, for the cautious. In the same ballpark as Personal Assets, Troy Trojan, BNY Real Return, and RIT, until the latter somewhat lost its way.
Kevin Hassett, WH Director of the National Economic Council, on Fox right now: "I would urge everyone, including Bill [Ackerman] to ease off the rhetoric a bit"
"The idea this will be a nuclear winter is irresponsible rhetoric," he added
Looks like Elon is off the Trump train, he has just posted a video from Milton Friedman explaining the power of free trade to make pencils as an example of how free trade is the best for everybody.
I noted this too
Can't be long until....Elon, i never like him, tiny man, everybody calls him Elon the idiot, playing with his little toy rockets....
Elon probably praying to be dumped now tbh.
Bit late for him to have a rethink. It's like with those German magnates who thought they could control Hitler.
I was reading somewhere that during WWI when the Germans retreated from a trench they left someone with a machine-gun to fire at the Allied troops when they came into the trench. He had limited ammunition and was expected to surrender when it ran out. Unfortunately for him the general response to his surrender was "too late, mate." Bang!
Just badly phrased, I think. Germans did indeed leave machine gunners behind when retreating, but they would be firing across no mans land, not in the trenches.
And they’d probably have been aged about 16
That was more a feature of 1945, I think.
That’s what I had in mind, it appears I misread the thread, having most of my attention focused on the yo-yo of the markets
Munchau is absolutely right that the reason that Germany and China run trade surpluses is that they implement policies that surpress consumption (or, to put it another way, they encourage saving).
And they do it to an excessive extent, which unbalances their economies.
However, he (Munchau) is slightly guilty of the Sole Actor Fallacy: that is, assuming it is something that the Germans do to America. It is perfectly possible for a US government to implement policies that do the same.
The correct way out of the current morass is for Germany and China to encourage domestic consumption (I've suggested ways to do this in the past), and for the US to implement measures that encourage greater household savings. The US government could also follow the Michael Pettis strategy of limiting the flow of foreign capital into the US, which would have a similar effect. (Because it is, effectively, the savings of Germans and Chinese that flow into US assets. If you could limit that flow, you would reduce the ability of US consumers to spend.)
There's just one issue with this rebalancing strategy - and that is that it is likely to be extremely uncomfortable for the US in the short term, even if it results in a more balanced economy down the line.
I’m thinking that ‘short term pain, long term gain’ and the American mentality would be the worst possible formulation?
As the Mango Mussolini is probably about to prove.
Follow FTSE 250 - there is a company in the green!
It's called Ruffer Investment.
Its website says: "Ruffer Investment Company Limited has a simple but unusual aim – to generate consistent positive returns, however financial markets are performing."
I met Mr Ruffer once, and had a very interesting conversation with him. He’s an interesting, if unusual, guy, and I’ve had a decent holding in his trust since then. I too noticed it is the only thing going up today. He’s been expecting some sort of crash for some time, and holds a fair bit of gold.
He does a lot of philanthropy, as well, although sadly much of it is religious
It seems overwhelmingly to be heritage and social action (eg Church Urban Fund - which is an outstanding organisation). He was the one who provided the funds to keep the Zurbarán paintings in Durham some years - at the time these were the default brickbat in tabloid attacks on the Church of England. Plus:
Ruffer gave an estimated £160 million to the development of Bishop Auckland Town in 2020. In total he has given one third of his wealth to the development of the Town.
I'm sure that @Taz or @eek can explain more, but an investment like that would go a significant way towards mitigating 20 years of salami-slicing of a local authority.
I wish we had a few like that - traditionally working class towns in the Midlands and North suffer badly from a lack of anchor institutions for the local economy, and a few very rich people with consciences can help mitigate.
It’s lovely but the museums are very, very middle class so the locals don’t really like it.
The other problem is that Bishop Auckland is a pig to drive round so given the choice I’m more likely to head to Durham or the Bowes Museum in Barnard Castle. Add on Beamish and there is a lot of local attractions where locals and tourists can spend time and money so Bishop Auckland has a very tough battle compared to other places
I have it on good authority that Barnard Castle is especially good for sight seeing.
You should get your eyes tested.
Since Covid Specsaver’s have opened a branch there (because it was an obvious move).
I think Trump is closer to Hermann Goering than Hitler, except that Goering was a faithful husband and a war hero not a draft dodger.
For JD Vance, I suggest Himmler.
So who is this regime's Doenitz, and will it do them any good?
The quotes borked - my editing. To be clear the Twitter suggestion was isam .
Doenitz? Hmmm.
Are there any competentlong serving senior military officers in the regime? Doenitz had a continuous military career from WW1 to WW2 if I recall. Doenitz was also a Nazi, but joined (checking) in 1933 when Hitler was already on the way to power.
The Trump regime's Doenitz would be pretty anonymous to most of the public, as the original was. So maybe one of the low-profile cabinet members.
It's not a great comparison though: Trump is more Mussolini than Hitler.
Follow FTSE 250 - there is a company in the green!
It's called Ruffer Investment.
Its website says: "Ruffer Investment Company Limited has a simple but unusual aim – to generate consistent positive returns, however financial markets are performing."
I met Mr Ruffer once, and had a very interesting conversation with him. He’s an interesting, if unusual, guy, and I’ve had a decent holding in his trust since then. I too noticed it is the only thing going up today. He’s been expecting some sort of crash for some time, and holds a fair bit of gold.
He does a lot of philanthropy, as well, although sadly much of it is religious
It seems overwhelmingly to be heritage and social action (eg Church Urban Fund - which is an outstanding organisation). He was the one who provided the funds to keep the Zurbarán paintings in Durham some years - at the time these were the default brickbat in tabloid attacks on the Church of England. Plus:
Ruffer gave an estimated £160 million to the development of Bishop Auckland Town in 2020. In total he has given one third of his wealth to the development of the Town.
I'm sure that @Taz or @eek can explain more, but an investment like that would go a significant way towards mitigating 20 years of salami-slicing of a local authority.
I wish we had a few like that - traditionally working class towns in the Midlands and North suffer badly from a lack of anchor institutions for the local economy, and a few very rich people with consciences can help mitigate.
It’s lovely but the museums are very, very middle class so the locals don’t really like it.
The other problem is that Bishop Auckland is a pig to drive round so given the choice I’m more likely to head to Durham or the Bowes Museum in Barnard Castle. Add on Beamish and there is a lot of local attractions where locals and tourists can spend time and money so Bishop Auckland has a very tough battle compared to other places
I have it on good authority that Barnard Castle is especially good for sight seeing.
You should get your eyes tested.
Since Covid Specsaver’s have opened a branch there (because it was an obvious move).
I was sent by the NHS to the island’s specsavers recently. It had the atmosphere of a refugee camp and reminded me of the A&E at Whipps Cross. They clearly are trying to make their money from quantity rather than quality.
Kevin Hassett, WH Director of the National Economic Council, on Fox right now: "I would urge everyone, including Bill [Ackerman] to ease off the rhetoric a bit"
"The idea this will be a nuclear winter is irresponsible rhetoric," he added
I think Trump is closer to Hermann Goering than Hitler, except that Goering was a faithful husband and a war hero not a draft dodger.
For JD Vance, I suggest Himmler.
So who is this regime's Doenitz, and will it do them any good?
The quotes borked - my editing. To be clear the Twitter suggestion was isam .
Doenitz? Hmmm.
Are there any competentlong serving senior military officers in the regime? Doenitz had a continuous military career from WW1 to WW2 if I recall. Doenitz was also a Nazi, but joined (checking) in 1933 when Hitler was already on the way to power.
The Trump regime's Doenitz would be pretty anonymous to most of the public, as the original was. So maybe one of the low-profile cabinet members.
It's not a great comparison though: Trump is more Mussolini than Hitler.
An interesting suggestion. If true, who is Trump's Hitler? I don't think I'd buy Putin for that one.
I think Trump is closer to Hermann Goering than Hitler, except that Goering was a faithful husband and a war hero not a draft dodger.
For JD Vance, I suggest Himmler.
So who is this regime's Doenitz, and will it do them any good?
The quotes borked - my editing. To be clear the Twitter suggestion was isam .
Doenitz? Hmmm.
Are there any competentlong serving senior military officers in the regime? Doenitz had a continuous military career from WW1 to WW2 if I recall. Doenitz was also a Nazi, but joined (checking) in 1933 when Hitler was already on the way to power.
The Trump regime's Doenitz would be pretty anonymous to most of the public, as the original was. So maybe one of the low-profile cabinet members.
It's not a great comparison though: Trump is more Mussolini than Hitler.
At this point I still incline to Kaiser Bill, potentially headed for Idi Amin.
The hubris of the Trumpy tech and finance bros has been ridiculous, each competing since the election to plute-splain why corruption, stupidity and authoritarianism make for the finest clothes the Emperor’s ever worn.
The hubris of the Trumpy tech and finance bros has been ridiculous, each competing since the election to plute-splain why corruption, stupidity and authoritarianism make for the finest clothes the Emperor’s ever worn.
There will soon be a point where anyone brave enough to buy will be setting themselves up for long term gains.
The question is whether it’s soon, or some way off.
Follow FTSE 250 - there is a company in the green!
It's called Ruffer Investment.
Its website says: "Ruffer Investment Company Limited has a simple but unusual aim – to generate consistent positive returns, however financial markets are performing."
I met Mr Ruffer once, and had a very interesting conversation with him. He’s an interesting, if unusual, guy, and I’ve had a decent holding in his trust since then. I too noticed it is the only thing going up today. He’s been expecting some sort of crash for some time, and holds a fair bit of gold.
He does a lot of philanthropy, as well, although sadly much of it is religious
It seems overwhelmingly to be heritage and social action (eg Church Urban Fund - which is an outstanding organisation). He was the one who provided the funds to keep the Zurbarán paintings in Durham some years - at the time these were the default brickbat in tabloid attacks on the Church of England. Plus:
Ruffer gave an estimated £160 million to the development of Bishop Auckland Town in 2020. In total he has given one third of his wealth to the development of the Town.
I'm sure that @Taz or @eek can explain more, but an investment like that would go a significant way towards mitigating 20 years of salami-slicing of a local authority.
I wish we had a few like that - traditionally working class towns in the Midlands and North suffer badly from a lack of anchor institutions for the local economy, and a few very rich people with consciences can help mitigate.
It’s lovely but the museums are very, very middle class so the locals don’t really like it.
The other problem is that Bishop Auckland is a pig to drive round so given the choice I’m more likely to head to Durham or the Bowes Museum in Barnard Castle. Add on Beamish and there is a lot of local attractions where locals and tourists can spend time and money so Bishop Auckland has a very tough battle compared to other places
I have it on good authority that Barnard Castle is especially good for sight seeing.
You should get your eyes tested.
Since Covid Specsaver’s have opened a branch there (because it was an obvious move).
I was sent by the NHS to the island’s specsavers recently. It had the atmosphere of a refugee camp and reminded me of the A&E at Whipps Cross. They clearly are trying to make their money from quantity rather than quality.
This describes much of British civic life now. Sub-contracting, bureaucracy, and sheer rentierism makes everyday life a misery.
Kevin Hassett, WH Director of the National Economic Council, on Fox right now: "I would urge everyone, including Bill [Ackerman] to ease off the rhetoric a bit"
"The idea this will be a nuclear winter is irresponsible rhetoric," he added
I wrote in November that a lot of people voted for a headcanon Trump that would fulfill all of his “good” promises instead of the ignorant sadist who actually exists and made all those “bad” promises, and well, here we are
It might be simple than that, though. At a base level, Trump wants it and Trump always wins because he frightens his opponents enough that they kneel. As I keep saying, "everybody kneels in the end". We can futz around as much as they like but Trump has the government, Congress and public opinion, and nobody's got the balls to punch him or kill him. So he wins.
(Parenthetically, I also have to point out that Starmer will kneel. He hasn't got the balls to say "no" and famously he's good at kneeling)
EARHARDT: If you're saying that Trump is waiting on great deals, and 50 countries have already come to the table, have any of them been great deals? Good enough for him?
HASSETT: When he does, he's gonna sign with that big long beautiful signature and he will have made a great deal for America
I wrote in November that a lot of people voted for a headcanon Trump that would fulfill all of his “good” promises instead of the ignorant sadist who actually exists and made all those “bad” promises, and well, here we are
Follow FTSE 250 - there is a company in the green!
It's called Ruffer Investment.
Its website says: "Ruffer Investment Company Limited has a simple but unusual aim – to generate consistent positive returns, however financial markets are performing."
I met Mr Ruffer once, and had a very interesting conversation with him. He’s an interesting, if unusual, guy, and I’ve had a decent holding in his trust since then. I too noticed it is the only thing going up today. He’s been expecting some sort of crash for some time, and holds a fair bit of gold.
He does a lot of philanthropy, as well, although sadly much of it is religious
It seems overwhelmingly to be heritage and social action (eg Church Urban Fund - which is an outstanding organisation). He was the one who provided the funds to keep the Zurbarán paintings in Durham some years - at the time these were the default brickbat in tabloid attacks on the Church of England. Plus:
Ruffer gave an estimated £160 million to the development of Bishop Auckland Town in 2020. In total he has given one third of his wealth to the development of the Town.
I'm sure that @Taz or @eek can explain more, but an investment like that would go a significant way towards mitigating 20 years of salami-slicing of a local authority.
I wish we had a few like that - traditionally working class towns in the Midlands and North suffer badly from a lack of anchor institutions for the local economy, and a few very rich people with consciences can help mitigate.
It’s lovely but the museums are very, very middle class so the locals don’t really like it.
The other problem is that Bishop Auckland is a pig to drive round so given the choice I’m more likely to head to Durham or the Bowes Museum in Barnard Castle. Add on Beamish and there is a lot of local attractions where locals and tourists can spend time and money so Bishop Auckland has a very tough battle compared to other places
I have it on good authority that Barnard Castle is especially good for sight seeing.
You should get your eyes tested.
Since Covid Specsaver’s have opened a branch there (because it was an obvious move).
I was sent by the NHS to the island’s specsavers recently. It had the atmosphere of a refugee camp and reminded me of the A&E at Whipps Cross. They clearly are trying to make their money from quantity rather than quality.
I think some of that might be down to who owns that instance of the pseudo-franchise. In more competitive areas they've always been reasonably good to shop at.
I think Trump is closer to Hermann Goering than Hitler, except that Goering was a faithful husband and a war hero not a draft dodger.
For JD Vance, I suggest Himmler.
So who is this regime's Doenitz, and will it do them any good?
The quotes borked - my editing. To be clear the Twitter suggestion was isam .
Doenitz? Hmmm.
Are there any competentlong serving senior military officers in the regime? Doenitz had a continuous military career from WW1 to WW2 if I recall. Doenitz was also a Nazi, but joined (checking) in 1933 when Hitler was already on the way to power.
The Trump regime's Doenitz would be pretty anonymous to most of the public, as the original was. So maybe one of the low-profile cabinet members.
It's not a great comparison though: Trump is more Mussolini than Hitler.
At this point I still incline to Kaiser Bill, potentially headed for Idi Amin.
One of the great lessons in history I learned at about 14. In our classes the young(ish) history teacher would use the phrase Kaiser Bill liberally when discussing the Great War etc. When I used it in an essay I was rebuked. Distinction between discussion and submitted work.
It might be simple than that, though. At a base level, Trump wants it and Trump always wins because he frightens his opponents enough that they kneel. As I keep saying, "everybody kneels in the end". We can futz around as much as they like but Trump has the government, Congress and public opinion, and nobody's got the balls to punch him or kill him. So he wins.
(Parenthetically, I also have to point out that Starmer will kneel. He hasn't got the balls to say "no" and famously he's good at kneeling)
That bollocks though
Xi has already said NO
The EU are currently writing NO on a piece of paper that will be signed on Wednesday
The US can't win a Global Trade War if the RoW is united
It's a very muddled article. I have read it twice and am none the wiser what he thinks is likely to happen, why this would be a success for Trump and why the consensus opinion opposed to tariffs is wrong.
I think Trump is closer to Hermann Goering than Hitler, except that Goering was a faithful husband and a war hero not a draft dodger.
For JD Vance, I suggest Himmler.
So who is this regime's Doenitz, and will it do them any good?
The quotes borked - my editing. To be clear the Twitter suggestion was isam .
Doenitz? Hmmm.
Are there any competentlong serving senior military officers in the regime? Doenitz had a continuous military career from WW1 to WW2 if I recall. Doenitz was also a Nazi, but joined (checking) in 1933 when Hitler was already on the way to power.
The Trump regime's Doenitz would be pretty anonymous to most of the public, as the original was. So maybe one of the low-profile cabinet members.
It's not a great comparison though: Trump is more Mussolini than Hitler.
At this point I still incline to Kaiser Bill, potentially headed for Idi Amin.
Before the war, a subordinate pointed out the flaws in the wolfpack attack plan for convoys, to Doenitz.
The subordinate was smacked down and reasoned to the surface navy.
The flaws were exactly what caused the loss of the Battle of The Atlantic.
I didn’t follow the news around what Trump said he was going to do regarding tariffs, but if it was known that he intended to hit every country with them, why didn’t the world and his wife short the companies that were likely to be affected, o as well as the FTSE etc?
For the same reason why we didn't bet on Brexit (but I did) or Trump winning (but I did) or Biden winning (but I did). Changing your portfolio or betting on politics is difficult and time consuming, and laziness, fear or normalcy bias prevents big punts.
As you may have noticed I asked on PB a couple of times as what the GBP-USD rate was at the end of the year, and everybody was determinedly silent. There's no "wisdom of crowds" if there's no discussion.
Having said that somebody will have been found to have bet big on Trump's tariffs (not me unfortunately!) and then we'll all say they were genuises.
Trump’s decision to single-handedly hobble the world economy and immiserate tens of millions of Americans has presented his fellow Republicans with a stark choice. Do they continue to kiss his orange butt and slavishly nod along to every nonsensical whim of their idiot Golfer King as he leads them into a recession and almost certain electoral apocalypse? Or do they defy him, splitting the party and opening themselves to a primary challenge … and possible electoral apocalypse?
The good news is that some GOP senators and members of Congress are actually disturbed enough by the prospect of their voters starving in the street that they have taken steps to push back against this grotesquely self-destructive trade policy. The not so good news is that the pushback is hesitant and half-hearted — and the majority of the party remains ready to torture and impoverish their constituents for the greater glory of Trump.
The tariffs, and the quick slide into economic calamity, have sparked real resistance. They’ve also demonstrated just how craven and/or hypnotized the GOP has become, and the extent to which most Republicans would do anything — literally anything — rather than point out that the emperor is wearing a grotesque meat suit made of the skin of his constituents.
Republican dissent is a hopeful sign. The hard limits on it, though, given the magnitude of the crisis, are a bleak reminder of how we ended up in this nightmare to begin with. Any successful resistance is going to require a fair number of Republicans to abandon their orange idol. It’s good to see them starting to do that. But it’s undeniably grim that the fate of the nation rests to any degree at all on these, gutless, spineless, christofascist quislings.
Kevin Hassett, WH Director of the National Economic Council, on Fox right now: "I would urge everyone, including Bill [Ackerman] to ease off the rhetoric a bit"
"The idea this will be a nuclear winter is irresponsible rhetoric," he added
Currently, Japan is the only major market that has fallen further than the US since Trump’s inauguration.
But I am wondering whether today might see some sort of bounce, leaving us tomorrow wondering whether it was of a dead cat? (not that I have any personal experience as to why dead cats are thought to be so bouncy).
What do people think of the likelihood of another American civil war or a state seceding? If you're New York or California, your president is continually slagging you off, you contribute a vast amount to federal coffers, and pretty soon you might find out your retirees have had their social security all DOGE'd up...
Trump’s decision to single-handedly hobble the world economy and immiserate tens of millions of Americans has presented his fellow Republicans with a stark choice. Do they continue to kiss his orange butt and slavishly nod along to every nonsensical whim of their idiot Golfer King as he leads them into a recession and almost certain electoral apocalypse? Or do they defy him, splitting the party and opening themselves to a primary challenge … and possible electoral apocalypse?
The good news is that some GOP senators and members of Congress are actually disturbed enough by the prospect of their voters starving in the street that they have taken steps to push back against this grotesquely self-destructive trade policy. The not so good news is that the pushback is hesitant and half-hearted — and the majority of the party remains ready to torture and impoverish their constituents for the greater glory of Trump.
The tariffs, and the quick slide into economic calamity, have sparked real resistance. They’ve also demonstrated just how craven and/or hypnotized the GOP has become, and the extent to which most Republicans would do anything — literally anything — rather than point out that the emperor is wearing a grotesque meat suit made of the skin of his constituents.
Republican dissent is a hopeful sign. The hard limits on it, though, given the magnitude of the crisis, are a bleak reminder of how we ended up in this nightmare to begin with. Any successful resistance is going to require a fair number of Republicans to abandon their orange idol. It’s good to see them starting to do that. But it’s undeniably grim that the fate of the nation rests to any degree at all on these, gutless, spineless, christofascist quislings.
Posting someone else's thoughts get no 'like' from me, but responding to the first point;
What electorial apocalypse? It's one man, one vote in Trumpland, and Trumps the man and he's got the vote.
I suppose Americans have to have a coping mechanism and pretending 2026 or 2028 are going to be free and fair is the only way forward at this point.
What do you think will happen in 2026 or 2028 to make the elections unfree and/unfair? Are you thinking concentration camps? Or just SS troops at all the polling stations?
I can believe that Trump will try to find a way to have more than 2 terms. It seems an odd limitation, and most people would happily have Obama run against Trump in 2028, but the idea that somehow the last free and fair election in the US has already happened strikes me as a little hysterical.
Kevin Hassett, WH Director of the National Economic Council, on Fox right now: "I would urge everyone, including Bill [Ackerman] to ease off the rhetoric a bit"
"The idea this will be a nuclear winter is irresponsible rhetoric," he added
Kevin Hassett, WH Director of the National Economic Council, on Fox right now: "I would urge everyone, including Bill [Ackerman] to ease off the rhetoric a bit"
"The idea this will be a nuclear winter is irresponsible rhetoric," he added
What do people think of the likelihood of another American civil war or a state seceding? If you're New York or California, your president is continually slagging you off, you contribute a vast amount to federal coffers, and pretty soon you might find out your retirees have had their social security all DOGE'd up...
Non-existent, unless Trump reaches for a third term or actually invades Canada perhaps, and then “very slim”.
Kevin Hassett, WH Director of the National Economic Council, on Fox right now: "I would urge everyone, including Bill [Ackerman] to ease off the rhetoric a bit"
"The idea this will be a nuclear winter is irresponsible rhetoric," he added
It might be simple than that, though. At a base level, Trump wants it and Trump always wins because he frightens his opponents enough that they kneel. As I keep saying, "everybody kneels in the end". We can futz around as much as they like but Trump has the government, Congress and public opinion, and nobody's got the balls to punch him or kill him. So he wins.
(Parenthetically, I also have to point out that Starmer will kneel. He hasn't got the balls to say "no" and famously he's good at kneeling)
Does he have public opinion?
His approval rating, even before tariffs, had fallen pretty sharply. The Republicans had pretty torrid times in Special Elections in Wisconsin and Florida.
And if (when) the tariffs do result in higher inflation, then that significant mass of voters who went with Trump because they thought he would bring grocery prices down are going to be pretty upset.
Astonishing chart from Goldman showing the slump in overseas passengers arriving to the US. Presumably not largely because of the tariffs but because of the horror stories about random incarceration.
Kevin Hassett, WH Director of the National Economic Council, on Fox right now: "I would urge everyone, including Bill [Ackerman] to ease off the rhetoric a bit"
"The idea this will be a nuclear winter is irresponsible rhetoric," he added
What do people think of the likelihood of another American civil war or a state seceding? If you're New York or California, your president is continually slagging you off, you contribute a vast amount to federal coffers, and pretty soon you might find out your retirees have had their social security all DOGE'd up...
Non-existent, unless Trump reaches for a third term or actually invades Canada perhaps, and then “very slim”.
Invading Canada could be a trigger. A third term nah (i.e. it will happen but won't create a civil war).
Trump’s decision to single-handedly hobble the world economy and immiserate tens of millions of Americans has presented his fellow Republicans with a stark choice. Do they continue to kiss his orange butt and slavishly nod along to every nonsensical whim of their idiot Golfer King as he leads them into a recession and almost certain electoral apocalypse? Or do they defy him, splitting the party and opening themselves to a primary challenge … and possible electoral apocalypse?
The good news is that some GOP senators and members of Congress are actually disturbed enough by the prospect of their voters starving in the street that they have taken steps to push back against this grotesquely self-destructive trade policy. The not so good news is that the pushback is hesitant and half-hearted — and the majority of the party remains ready to torture and impoverish their constituents for the greater glory of Trump.
The tariffs, and the quick slide into economic calamity, have sparked real resistance. They’ve also demonstrated just how craven and/or hypnotized the GOP has become, and the extent to which most Republicans would do anything — literally anything — rather than point out that the emperor is wearing a grotesque meat suit made of the skin of his constituents.
Republican dissent is a hopeful sign. The hard limits on it, though, given the magnitude of the crisis, are a bleak reminder of how we ended up in this nightmare to begin with. Any successful resistance is going to require a fair number of Republicans to abandon their orange idol. It’s good to see them starting to do that. But it’s undeniably grim that the fate of the nation rests to any degree at all on these, gutless, spineless, christofascist quislings.
Posting someone else's thoughts get no 'like' from me, but responding to the first point;
What electorial apocalypse? It's one man, one vote in Trumpland, and Trumps the man and he's got the vote.
I suppose Americans have to have a coping mechanism and pretending 2026 or 2028 are going to be free and fair is the only way forward at this point.
What do you think will happen in 2026 or 2028 to make the elections unfree and/unfair? Are you thinking concentration camps? Or just SS troops at all the polling stations?
I can believe that Trump will try to find a way to have more than 2 terms. It seems an odd limitation, and most people would happily have Obama run against Trump in 2028, but the idea that somehow the last free and fair election in the US has already happened strikes me as a little hysterical.
It is easy to imagine an increase in the fiddling of elections we've seen to date: gerrymandering, no polling stations in Dem areas, "cleaning" electoral rolls, legislators stepping in to "correct" election results, biased social media, etc. Then you move up to arresting political opponents, maybe sending them to El Salvador.
Astonishing chart from Goldman showing the slump in overseas passengers arriving to the US. Presumably not largely because of the tariffs but because of the horror stories about random incarceration.
Trump’s decision to single-handedly hobble the world economy and immiserate tens of millions of Americans has presented his fellow Republicans with a stark choice. Do they continue to kiss his orange butt and slavishly nod along to every nonsensical whim of their idiot Golfer King as he leads them into a recession and almost certain electoral apocalypse? Or do they defy him, splitting the party and opening themselves to a primary challenge … and possible electoral apocalypse?
The good news is that some GOP senators and members of Congress are actually disturbed enough by the prospect of their voters starving in the street that they have taken steps to push back against this grotesquely self-destructive trade policy. The not so good news is that the pushback is hesitant and half-hearted — and the majority of the party remains ready to torture and impoverish their constituents for the greater glory of Trump.
The tariffs, and the quick slide into economic calamity, have sparked real resistance. They’ve also demonstrated just how craven and/or hypnotized the GOP has become, and the extent to which most Republicans would do anything — literally anything — rather than point out that the emperor is wearing a grotesque meat suit made of the skin of his constituents.
Republican dissent is a hopeful sign. The hard limits on it, though, given the magnitude of the crisis, are a bleak reminder of how we ended up in this nightmare to begin with. Any successful resistance is going to require a fair number of Republicans to abandon their orange idol. It’s good to see them starting to do that. But it’s undeniably grim that the fate of the nation rests to any degree at all on these, gutless, spineless, christofascist quislings.
Posting someone else's thoughts get no 'like' from me, but responding to the first point;
What electorial apocalypse? It's one man, one vote in Trumpland, and Trumps the man and he's got the vote.
I suppose Americans have to have a coping mechanism and pretending 2026 or 2028 are going to be free and fair is the only way forward at this point.
What do you think will happen in 2026 or 2028 to make the elections unfree and/unfair? Are you thinking concentration camps? Or just SS troops at all the polling stations?
I can believe that Trump will try to find a way to have more than 2 terms. It seems an odd limitation, and most people would happily have Obama run against Trump in 2028, but the idea that somehow the last free and fair election in the US has already happened strikes me as a little hysterical.
I don't suppose you are following the current case where the losing Republican is having votes thrown out of people who were alive at the time of the election but are unable to re-certify now as they have died in between?
Currently, Japan is the only major market that has fallen further than the US since Trump’s inauguration.
But I am wondering whether today might see some sort of bounce, leaving us tomorrow wondering whether it was of a dead cat? (not that I have any personal experience as to why dead cats are thought to be so bouncy).
Personally I think that it’s something that should be extensively and exhaustively tested.
Trump’s decision to single-handedly hobble the world economy and immiserate tens of millions of Americans has presented his fellow Republicans with a stark choice. Do they continue to kiss his orange butt and slavishly nod along to every nonsensical whim of their idiot Golfer King as he leads them into a recession and almost certain electoral apocalypse? Or do they defy him, splitting the party and opening themselves to a primary challenge … and possible electoral apocalypse?
The good news is that some GOP senators and members of Congress are actually disturbed enough by the prospect of their voters starving in the street that they have taken steps to push back against this grotesquely self-destructive trade policy. The not so good news is that the pushback is hesitant and half-hearted — and the majority of the party remains ready to torture and impoverish their constituents for the greater glory of Trump.
The tariffs, and the quick slide into economic calamity, have sparked real resistance. They’ve also demonstrated just how craven and/or hypnotized the GOP has become, and the extent to which most Republicans would do anything — literally anything — rather than point out that the emperor is wearing a grotesque meat suit made of the skin of his constituents.
Republican dissent is a hopeful sign. The hard limits on it, though, given the magnitude of the crisis, are a bleak reminder of how we ended up in this nightmare to begin with. Any successful resistance is going to require a fair number of Republicans to abandon their orange idol. It’s good to see them starting to do that. But it’s undeniably grim that the fate of the nation rests to any degree at all on these, gutless, spineless, christofascist quislings.
Posting someone else's thoughts get no 'like' from me, but responding to the first point;
What electorial apocalypse? It's one man, one vote in Trumpland, and Trumps the man and he's got the vote.
I suppose Americans have to have a coping mechanism and pretending 2026 or 2028 are going to be free and fair is the only way forward at this point.
What do you think will happen in 2026 or 2028 to make the elections unfree and/unfair? Are you thinking concentration camps? Or just SS troops at all the polling stations?
I can believe that Trump will try to find a way to have more than 2 terms. It seems an odd limitation, and most people would happily have Obama run against Trump in 2028, but the idea that somehow the last free and fair election in the US has already happened strikes me as a little hysterical.
It is easy to imagine an increase in the fiddling of elections we've seen to date: gerrymandering, no polling stations in Dem areas, "cleaning" electoral rolls, legislators stepping in to "correct" election results, biased social media, etc. Then you move up to arresting political opponents, maybe sending them to El Salvador.
"Then you move up to arresting political opponents, maybe sending them to El Salvador" - any evidence of this? And we are not immune to the odd bit of tinkering in the UK, are we! Voter ID for one.
I think Trump is closer to Hermann Goering than Hitler, except that Goering was a faithful husband and a war hero not a draft dodger.
For JD Vance, I suggest Himmler.
So who is this regime's Doenitz, and will it do them any good?
The quotes borked - my editing. To be clear the Twitter suggestion was isam .
Doenitz? Hmmm.
Are there any competentlong serving senior military officers in the regime? Doenitz had a continuous military career from WW1 to WW2 if I recall. Doenitz was also a Nazi, but joined (checking) in 1933 when Hitler was already on the way to power.
The Trump regime's Doenitz would be pretty anonymous to most of the public, as the original was. So maybe one of the low-profile cabinet members.
It's not a great comparison though: Trump is more Mussolini than Hitler.
An interesting suggestion. If true, who is Trump's Hitler? I don't think I'd buy Putin for that one.
There doesn't *have* to be a direct analogy for every historic or current player in a compared scenario.
I think Trump is closer to Hermann Goering than Hitler, except that Goering was a faithful husband and a war hero not a draft dodger.
For JD Vance, I suggest Himmler.
So who is this regime's Doenitz, and will it do them any good?
The quotes borked - my editing. To be clear the Twitter suggestion was isam .
Doenitz? Hmmm.
Are there any competentlong serving senior military officers in the regime? Doenitz had a continuous military career from WW1 to WW2 if I recall. Doenitz was also a Nazi, but joined (checking) in 1933 when Hitler was already on the way to power.
The Trump regime's Doenitz would be pretty anonymous to most of the public, as the original was. So maybe one of the low-profile cabinet members.
It's not a great comparison though: Trump is more Mussolini than Hitler.
An interesting suggestion. If true, who is Trump's Hitler? I don't think I'd buy Putin for that one.
There doesn't *have* to be a direct analogy for every historic or current player in a compared scenario.
Generally countries don't vote for leaders with the IQ of a toddler so it is going to be tough to find parallels.
China has begun to devalue. The fall in the Yuan is still small, but it's noteworthy because the Dollar has fallen, so - if anything - China should be strengthening Yuan versus the Dollar if its wants to keep it stable in trade-weighted terms. This is a signal to Washington...
Astonishing chart from Goldman showing the slump in overseas passengers arriving to the US. Presumably not largely because of the tariffs but because of the horror stories about random incarceration.
"McMillan said about 20 percent to 30 percent of trips that were already booked got canceled. Since then, he said, the company has seen about a 90 percent drop in new bookings for U.S. vacations compared with the previous year, as clients opt for other destinations.
That is in line with what Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, has been expecting. His travel analytics firm predicted that 4 million fewer Canadians will visit the United States this year, a 20 percent decrease that could cost the U.S. $4.3 billion in lost revenue, he said."
Trump’s decision to single-handedly hobble the world economy and immiserate tens of millions of Americans has presented his fellow Republicans with a stark choice. Do they continue to kiss his orange butt and slavishly nod along to every nonsensical whim of their idiot Golfer King as he leads them into a recession and almost certain electoral apocalypse? Or do they defy him, splitting the party and opening themselves to a primary challenge … and possible electoral apocalypse?
The good news is that some GOP senators and members of Congress are actually disturbed enough by the prospect of their voters starving in the street that they have taken steps to push back against this grotesquely self-destructive trade policy. The not so good news is that the pushback is hesitant and half-hearted — and the majority of the party remains ready to torture and impoverish their constituents for the greater glory of Trump.
The tariffs, and the quick slide into economic calamity, have sparked real resistance. They’ve also demonstrated just how craven and/or hypnotized the GOP has become, and the extent to which most Republicans would do anything — literally anything — rather than point out that the emperor is wearing a grotesque meat suit made of the skin of his constituents.
Republican dissent is a hopeful sign. The hard limits on it, though, given the magnitude of the crisis, are a bleak reminder of how we ended up in this nightmare to begin with. Any successful resistance is going to require a fair number of Republicans to abandon their orange idol. It’s good to see them starting to do that. But it’s undeniably grim that the fate of the nation rests to any degree at all on these, gutless, spineless, christofascist quislings.
Posting someone else's thoughts get no 'like' from me, but responding to the first point;
What electorial apocalypse? It's one man, one vote in Trumpland, and Trumps the man and he's got the vote.
I suppose Americans have to have a coping mechanism and pretending 2026 or 2028 are going to be free and fair is the only way forward at this point.
What do you think will happen in 2026 or 2028 to make the elections unfree and/unfair? Are you thinking concentration camps? Or just SS troops at all the polling stations?
I can believe that Trump will try to find a way to have more than 2 terms. It seems an odd limitation, and most people would happily have Obama run against Trump in 2028, but the idea that somehow the last free and fair election in the US has already happened strikes me as a little hysterical.
Operating from the playbook of the Redeemers, in the 1870's and 1880's.
Trump’s decision to single-handedly hobble the world economy and immiserate tens of millions of Americans has presented his fellow Republicans with a stark choice. Do they continue to kiss his orange butt and slavishly nod along to every nonsensical whim of their idiot Golfer King as he leads them into a recession and almost certain electoral apocalypse? Or do they defy him, splitting the party and opening themselves to a primary challenge … and possible electoral apocalypse?
The good news is that some GOP senators and members of Congress are actually disturbed enough by the prospect of their voters starving in the street that they have taken steps to push back against this grotesquely self-destructive trade policy. The not so good news is that the pushback is hesitant and half-hearted — and the majority of the party remains ready to torture and impoverish their constituents for the greater glory of Trump.
The tariffs, and the quick slide into economic calamity, have sparked real resistance. They’ve also demonstrated just how craven and/or hypnotized the GOP has become, and the extent to which most Republicans would do anything — literally anything — rather than point out that the emperor is wearing a grotesque meat suit made of the skin of his constituents.
Republican dissent is a hopeful sign. The hard limits on it, though, given the magnitude of the crisis, are a bleak reminder of how we ended up in this nightmare to begin with. Any successful resistance is going to require a fair number of Republicans to abandon their orange idol. It’s good to see them starting to do that. But it’s undeniably grim that the fate of the nation rests to any degree at all on these, gutless, spineless, christofascist quislings.
Posting someone else's thoughts get no 'like' from me, but responding to the first point;
What electorial apocalypse? It's one man, one vote in Trumpland, and Trumps the man and he's got the vote.
I suppose Americans have to have a coping mechanism and pretending 2026 or 2028 are going to be free and fair is the only way forward at this point.
What do you think will happen in 2026 or 2028 to make the elections unfree and/unfair? Are you thinking concentration camps? Or just SS troops at all the polling stations?
I can believe that Trump will try to find a way to have more than 2 terms. It seems an odd limitation, and most people would happily have Obama run against Trump in 2028, but the idea that somehow the last free and fair election in the US has already happened strikes me as a little hysterical.
See the recent North Carolina judicial election for the playbook as to how to rig the election. Will only work if it's close(ish) though.
Trump’s decision to single-handedly hobble the world economy and immiserate tens of millions of Americans has presented his fellow Republicans with a stark choice. Do they continue to kiss his orange butt and slavishly nod along to every nonsensical whim of their idiot Golfer King as he leads them into a recession and almost certain electoral apocalypse? Or do they defy him, splitting the party and opening themselves to a primary challenge … and possible electoral apocalypse?
The good news is that some GOP senators and members of Congress are actually disturbed enough by the prospect of their voters starving in the street that they have taken steps to push back against this grotesquely self-destructive trade policy. The not so good news is that the pushback is hesitant and half-hearted — and the majority of the party remains ready to torture and impoverish their constituents for the greater glory of Trump.
The tariffs, and the quick slide into economic calamity, have sparked real resistance. They’ve also demonstrated just how craven and/or hypnotized the GOP has become, and the extent to which most Republicans would do anything — literally anything — rather than point out that the emperor is wearing a grotesque meat suit made of the skin of his constituents.
Republican dissent is a hopeful sign. The hard limits on it, though, given the magnitude of the crisis, are a bleak reminder of how we ended up in this nightmare to begin with. Any successful resistance is going to require a fair number of Republicans to abandon their orange idol. It’s good to see them starting to do that. But it’s undeniably grim that the fate of the nation rests to any degree at all on these, gutless, spineless, christofascist quislings.
Posting someone else's thoughts get no 'like' from me, but responding to the first point;
What electorial apocalypse? It's one man, one vote in Trumpland, and Trumps the man and he's got the vote.
I suppose Americans have to have a coping mechanism and pretending 2026 or 2028 are going to be free and fair is the only way forward at this point.
What do you think will happen in 2026 or 2028 to make the elections unfree and/unfair? Are you thinking concentration camps? Or just SS troops at all the polling stations?
I can believe that Trump will try to find a way to have more than 2 terms. It seems an odd limitation, and most people would happily have Obama run against Trump in 2028, but the idea that somehow the last free and fair election in the US has already happened strikes me as a little hysterical.
It is easy to imagine an increase in the fiddling of elections we've seen to date: gerrymandering, no polling stations in Dem areas, "cleaning" electoral rolls, legislators stepping in to "correct" election results, biased social media, etc. Then you move up to arresting political opponents, maybe sending them to El Salvador.
"Then you move up to arresting political opponents, maybe sending them to El Salvador" - any evidence of this? And we are not immune to the odd bit of tinkering in the UK, are we! Voter ID for one.
I think @bondegezou is outlining a possible path forward.
We've already seen - in North Carolina - a court toss out tens of thousands of ballots in a closely contested election.
Follow FTSE 250 - there is a company in the green!
It's called Ruffer Investment.
Its website says: "Ruffer Investment Company Limited has a simple but unusual aim – to generate consistent positive returns, however financial markets are performing."
I met Mr Ruffer once, and had a very interesting conversation with him. He’s an interesting, if unusual, guy, and I’ve had a decent holding in his trust since then. I too noticed it is the only thing going up today. He’s been expecting some sort of crash for some time, and holds a fair bit of gold.
He does a lot of philanthropy, as well, although sadly much of it is religious
It seems overwhelmingly to be heritage and social action (eg Church Urban Fund - which is an outstanding organisation). He was the one who provided the funds to keep the Zurbarán paintings in Durham some years - at the time these were the default brickbat in tabloid attacks on the Church of England. Plus:
Ruffer gave an estimated £160 million to the development of Bishop Auckland Town in 2020. In total he has given one third of his wealth to the development of the Town.
I'm sure that @Taz or @eek can explain more, but an investment like that would go a significant way towards mitigating 20 years of salami-slicing of a local authority.
I wish we had a few like that - traditionally working class towns in the Midlands and North suffer badly from a lack of anchor institutions for the local economy, and a few very rich people with consciences can help mitigate.
It’s lovely but the museums are very, very middle class so the locals don’t really like it.
The other problem is that Bishop Auckland is a pig to drive round so given the choice I’m more likely to head to Durham or the Bowes Museum in Barnard Castle. Add on Beamish and there is a lot of local attractions where locals and tourists can spend time and money so Bishop Auckland has a very tough battle compared to other places
I have it on good authority that Barnard Castle is especially good for sight seeing.
Peter Navarro, Trump’s trade advisor says “Any discussion of recession seems silly” whilst noting, practically in the same breath, how great it was that oil prices are falling. Like the 2 are unconnected.
The hubris of the Trumpy tech and finance bros has been ridiculous, each competing since the election to plute-splain why corruption, stupidity and authoritarianism make for the finest clothes the Emperor’s ever worn.
Imagine being some of the richest people who ever lived, people who have unquestionably benefited from the system, and instead of seeking to maintain the status quo they think "let's blow it all up in order to try and get even richer!" Not one of them is even half as smart as they believe they are.
Comments
Bessent: "That's a false narrative...
https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1908887101698900387
If you were offered a job with the title ‘General Counsel’ would it be vainglorious to insist your minions address you as ‘General’?
The irony is that the threats he foresaw were mostly economic, whereas deliverance has arrived from something almost entirely political.
A tariff of 1% would be difficult but able to absorbed by most, 20% less so.
Also the key factor, there’s no rhyme nor reason to Trump’s approach to his (in)consistency as this confirms.
The real Trump Derangement Sydrome, it turns out, was thinking that he wouldn't act in a batshit crazy way.
But, ultimately, he was a super smart, good guy, I really enjoyed spending time with.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZXDwtgnWwk
Ruffer gave an estimated £160 million to the development of Bishop Auckland Town in 2020. In total he has given one third of his wealth to the development of the Town.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Ruffer
I'm sure that @Taz or @eek can explain more, but an investment like that would go a significant way towards mitigating 20 years of salami-slicing of a local authority.
I wish we had a few like that - traditionally working class towns in the Midlands and North suffer badly from a lack of anchor institutions for the local economy, and a few very rich people with consciences can help mitigate.
The good news is that some GOP senators and members of Congress are actually disturbed enough by the prospect of their voters starving in the street that they have taken steps to push back against this grotesquely self-destructive trade policy. The not so good news is that the pushback is hesitant and half-hearted — and the majority of the party remains ready to torture and impoverish their constituents for the greater glory of Trump.
The tariffs, and the quick slide into economic calamity, have sparked real resistance. They’ve also demonstrated just how craven and/or hypnotized the GOP has become, and the extent to which most Republicans would do anything — literally anything — rather than point out that the emperor is wearing a grotesque meat suit made of the skin of his constituents.
Republican dissent is a hopeful sign. The hard limits on it, though, given the magnitude of the crisis, are a bleak reminder of how we ended up in this nightmare to begin with. Any successful resistance is going to require a fair number of Republicans to abandon their orange idol. It’s good to see them starting to do that. But it’s undeniably grim that the fate of the nation rests to any degree at all on these, gutless, spineless, christofascist quislings.
https://www.publicnotice.co/p/trump-tariffs-republican-resistance
The other problem is that Bishop Auckland is a pig to drive round so given the choice I’m more likely to head to Durham or the Bowes Museum in Barnard Castle. Add on Beamish and there is a lot of local attractions where locals and tourists can spend time and money so Bishop Auckland has a very tough battle compared to other places
Moneyweek magazine’s perpetual forecasts of a UK house price collapse during the 2010s is a classic example; following their advice would have been suicidal.
Ruffer has been expecting a crash for some time, seeing that the issues thrown up by the 2008 debt crisis were never resolved and the reliance on debt since then has inexorably increased.
Whether Trump’s idiocy delivering the crash means he was right, or simply lucky, is the question….
But the consequences of admitting that he is a bad'un have been too much for his supporters to bear.
And they do it to an excessive extent, which unbalances their economies.
However, he (Munchau) is slightly guilty of the Sole Actor Fallacy: that is, assuming it is something that the Germans do to America. It is perfectly possible for a US government to implement policies that do the same.
The correct way out of the current morass is for Germany and China to encourage domestic consumption (I've suggested ways to do this in the past), and for the US to implement measures that encourage greater household savings. The US government could also follow the Michael Pettis strategy of limiting the flow of foreign capital into the US, which would have a similar effect. (Because it is, effectively, the savings of Germans and Chinese that flow into US assets. If you could limit that flow, you would reduce the ability of US consumers to spend.)
There's just one issue with this rebalancing strategy - and that is that it is likely to be extremely uncomfortable for the US in the short term, even if it results in a more balanced economy down the line.
Later in the war much shorter barrages, combined with creeping barrages, and the use of surprise, led to the British (including the dominions) achieving a way of victory on the Western Front. And if you pay attention, its strikingly similar to how Monty fought in WW2.
Doenitz? Hmmm.
Are there any competentlong serving senior military officers in the regime? Doenitz had a continuous military career from WW1 to WW2 if I recall. Doenitz was also a Nazi, but joined (checking) in 1933 when Hitler was already on the way to power.
It’s just a shame that he has to bring his religion into it.
Regardless, his fund remains a decent investment, for the cautious. In the same ballpark as Personal Assets, Troy Trojan, BNY Real Return, and RIT, until the latter somewhat lost its way.
Kevin Hassett, WH Director of the National Economic Council, on Fox right now: "I would urge everyone, including Bill [Ackerman] to ease off the rhetoric a bit"
"The idea this will be a nuclear winter is irresponsible rhetoric," he added
https://x.com/alaynatreene/status/1909221541125988435
As the Mango Mussolini is probably about to prove.
It's not a great comparison though: Trump is more Mussolini than Hitler.
(On bicycle chat earlier, they are likely the best post-apocalyptic form of transport. Highly energy efficient and easy to maintain).
The hubris of the Trumpy tech and finance bros has been ridiculous, each competing since the election to plute-splain why corruption, stupidity and authoritarianism make for the finest clothes the Emperor’s ever worn.
The question is whether it’s soon, or some way off.
Sub-contracting, bureaucracy, and sheer rentierism makes everyday life a misery.
I wrote in November that a lot of people voted for a headcanon Trump that would fulfill all of his “good” promises instead of the ignorant sadist who actually exists and made all those “bad” promises, and well, here we are
https://bsky.app/profile/adamserwer.bsky.social/post/3lm7uilerx222
It might be simple than that, though. At a base level, Trump wants it and Trump always wins because he frightens his opponents enough that they kneel. As I keep saying, "everybody kneels in the end". We can futz around as much as they like but Trump has the government, Congress and public opinion, and nobody's got the balls to punch him or kill him. So he wins.
(Parenthetically, I also have to point out that Starmer will kneel. He hasn't got the balls to say "no" and famously he's good at kneeling)
EARHARDT: If you're saying that Trump is waiting on great deals, and 50 countries have already come to the table, have any of them been great deals? Good enough for him?
HASSETT: When he does, he's gonna sign with that big long beautiful signature and he will have made a great deal for America
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lm7y3dhlhw2x
Donuts was scum by the way. The measure of the man was that he had some German sailors shot for celebrating that the war was over.
A show of solidarity of course.
Xi has already said NO
The EU are currently writing NO on a piece of paper that will be signed on Wednesday
The US can't win a Global Trade War if the RoW is united
Perhaps you should design a tasteful, understated uniform
@atrupar.com
Maria Bartiromo calls Trump's tariffs a "debacle"
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lm7ykh7cck2e
The subordinate was smacked down and reasoned to the surface navy.
The flaws were exactly what caused the loss of the Battle of The Atlantic.
As you may have noticed I asked on PB a couple of times as what the GBP-USD rate was at the end of the year, and everybody was determinedly silent. There's no "wisdom of crowds" if there's no discussion.
Having said that somebody will have been found to have bet big on Trump's tariffs (not me unfortunately!) and then we'll all say they were genuises.
Peter Navarro on CNBC calls tariffs "a beautiful situation" next to a stock ticker showing the Dow implied open down 900 points
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lm7yq3w3ha26
What electorial apocalypse?
It's one man, one vote in Trumpland, and Trumps the man and he's got the vote.
I suppose Americans have to have a coping mechanism and pretending 2026 or 2028 are going to be free and fair is the only way forward at this point.
But I am wondering whether today might see some sort of bounce, leaving us tomorrow wondering whether it was of a dead cat? (not that I have any personal experience as to why dead cats are thought to be so bouncy).
If you're New York or California, your president is continually slagging you off, you contribute a vast amount to federal coffers, and pretty soon you might find out your retirees have had their social security all DOGE'd up...
I can believe that Trump will try to find a way to have more than 2 terms. It seems an odd limitation, and most people would happily have Obama run against Trump in 2028, but the idea that somehow the last free and fair election in the US has already happened strikes me as a little hysterical.
His approval rating, even before tariffs, had fallen pretty sharply. The Republicans had pretty torrid times in Special Elections in Wisconsin and Florida.
And if (when) the tariffs do result in higher inflation, then that significant mass of voters who went with Trump because they thought he would bring grocery prices down are going to be pretty upset.
Astonishing chart from Goldman showing the slump in overseas passengers arriving to the US. Presumably not largely because of the tariffs but because of the horror stories about random incarceration.
https://x.com/Birdyword/status/1909066198785913244
China has begun to devalue. The fall in the Yuan is still small, but it's noteworthy because the Dollar has fallen, so - if anything - China should be strengthening Yuan versus the Dollar if its wants to keep it stable in trade-weighted terms. This is a signal to Washington...
https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1909223347134619983
"McMillan said about 20 percent to 30 percent of trips that were already booked got canceled. Since then, he said, the company has seen about a 90 percent drop in new bookings for U.S. vacations compared with the previous year, as clients opt for other destinations.
That is in line with what Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, has been expecting. His travel analytics firm predicted that 4 million fewer Canadians will visit the United States this year, a 20 percent decrease that could cost the U.S. $4.3 billion in lost revenue, he said."
We've already seen - in North Carolina - a court toss out tens of thousands of ballots in a closely contested election.
https://apnews.com/article/north-carolina-election-2024-griffin-riggs-judges-fe51ca7bb095b9dcb305030220e69606
However... it is fair to say that that would not be a particularly pleasant experience for the US.
https://x.com/jonsopel/status/1909232371586543992
This is not going to end well