Punters react to the tariff announcements – politicalbetting.com
Last year I regularly posted on PB that the economic polling would presage a Trump victory, particularly on the cost of living issue Trump’s tariffs will push up prices to a rather high level and that will bugger up the Republican Party.
The US/EU trade deal might be a bit if a stretch...
Trump calls for Europe to pay reparations to the US: "We put a big tariff on Europe. They are coming to the table. They want to talk, but there's no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis number one for present but also for past." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1909034677727272997
The US/EU trade deal might be a bit if a stretch...
Trump calls for Europe to pay reparations to the US: "We put a big tariff on Europe. They are coming to the table. They want to talk, but there's no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis number one for present but also for past." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1909034677727272997
The US/EU trade deal might be a bit if a stretch...
Trump calls for Europe to pay reparations to the US: "We put a big tariff on Europe. They are coming to the table. They want to talk, but there's no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis number one for present but also for past." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1909034677727272997
Trump, Johnson and Farage are frauds. Incompetent, and in the case of Trump malevolent, frauds. But no-one is going to admit to that obvious fact if they have supported them.
On the plus side, the depression of global economic activity will probably result is a greater cut in CO2 emissions than could otherwise have been achieved. So there is that.
This week is key. It appears that the trade war is heating up, not cooling down. MAGA claims to have dozens of countries now negotiating with the US. Really? And a negotiation that will go to the US position?
America voted for this. I hope they enjoy Gilead. Because we know where this is going. The US vs ROW trade war makes Murica even more insulated. One of the free speech things they are trying to ram down our throats is the "christian" right funding anti-Abortion campaigners here. As the US closes its borders to the world, with illegal aliens being rounded up out of their homes and workplaces, the womenfolk are next.
As the rout continues this week I hope that global consumers apply even more pressure as Canadian ones have done.
Trump, Johnson and Farage are frauds. Incompetent, and in the case of Trump malevolent, frauds. But no-one is going to admit to that obvious fact if they have supported them.
Which is why conmen tend to get away with it for so long.
The good news is that, in a fair and balanced election, the rubes don't need to recant, they just need to stay home on the next polling day. That's much easier emotionally. (We saw something a bit similar here in both 1997 and 2024.)
That does depend on future US elections being sufficiently fair and balanced, which is a bit of a tricky call at the best of times.
This week is key. It appears that the trade war is heating up, not cooling down. MAGA claims to have dozens of countries now negotiating with the US. Really? And a negotiation that will go to the US position?
America voted for this. I hope they enjoy Gilead. Because we know where this is going. The US vs ROW trade war makes Murica even more insulated. One of the free speech things they are trying to ram down our throats is the "christian" right funding anti-Abortion campaigners here. As the US closes its borders to the world, with illegal aliens being rounded up out of their homes and workplaces, the womenfolk are next.
As the rout continues this week I hope that global consumers apply even more pressure as Canadian ones have done.
If Kemi has any sense she'll be making "Buy British, don't buy American" announcements.
This week is key. It appears that the trade war is heating up, not cooling down. MAGA claims to have dozens of countries now negotiating with the US. Really? And a negotiation that will go to the US position?
America voted for this. I hope they enjoy Gilead. Because we know where this is going. The US vs ROW trade war makes Murica even more insulated. One of the free speech things they are trying to ram down our throats is the "christian" right funding anti-Abortion campaigners here. As the US closes its borders to the world, with illegal aliens being rounded up out of their homes and workplaces, the womenfolk are next.
As the rout continues this week I hope that global consumers apply even more pressure as Canadian ones have done.
If Kemi has any sense she'll be making "Buy British, don't buy American" announcements.
It seems probable, therefore, that she’ll go on TV to say Trump has every right to erect tariffs.
This week is key. It appears that the trade war is heating up, not cooling down. MAGA claims to have dozens of countries now negotiating with the US. Really? And a negotiation that will go to the US position?
America voted for this. I hope they enjoy Gilead. Because we know where this is going. The US vs ROW trade war makes Murica even more insulated. One of the free speech things they are trying to ram down our throats is the "christian" right funding anti-Abortion campaigners here. As the US closes its borders to the world, with illegal aliens being rounded up out of their homes and workplaces, the womenfolk are next.
As the rout continues this week I hope that global consumers apply even more pressure as Canadian ones have done.
If Kemi has any sense she'll be making "Buy British, don't buy American" announcements.
It seems probable, therefore, that she’ll go on TV to say Trump has every right to erect tariffs.
Or. "Now is the time to buy American." If she's feeling bold.
This week is key. It appears that the trade war is heating up, not cooling down. MAGA claims to have dozens of countries now negotiating with the US. Really? And a negotiation that will go to the US position?
America voted for this. I hope they enjoy Gilead. Because we know where this is going. The US vs ROW trade war makes Murica even more insulated. One of the free speech things they are trying to ram down our throats is the "christian" right funding anti-Abortion campaigners here. As the US closes its borders to the world, with illegal aliens being rounded up out of their homes and workplaces, the womenfolk are next.
As the rout continues this week I hope that global consumers apply even more pressure as Canadian ones have done.
Good morning, everyone.
That quote made me think of a man standing on a ledge at the top of a tall building. Lots of people will want to negotiate with him too. It doesn't mean he's in an incredibly good position.
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
With markets in free fall, presumably we will hear from the Fed, ECB, the Bank of England and other major central banks today that they will look through the inflationary impact of tariffs and start providing liquidity (cheaper money, lower interest rates). Any markets floor however can’t be found till we hear from Trump and other leading economies that the trade war will NOT be ratcheted up
This week is key. It appears that the trade war is heating up, not cooling down. MAGA claims to have dozens of countries now negotiating with the US. Really? And a negotiation that will go to the US position?
America voted for this. I hope they enjoy Gilead. Because we know where this is going. The US vs ROW trade war makes Murica even more insulated. One of the free speech things they are trying to ram down our throats is the "christian" right funding anti-Abortion campaigners here. As the US closes its borders to the world, with illegal aliens being rounded up out of their homes and workplaces, the womenfolk are next.
As the rout continues this week I hope that global consumers apply even more pressure as Canadian ones have done.
If Kemi has any sense she'll be making "Buy British, don't buy American" announcements.
It seems probable, therefore, that she’ll go on TV to say Trump has every right to erect tariffs.
Its a good test for Kemi to see if she's in some weird bubble.
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
Doesnt that rather depend on who you are ?
The people at the top had it great, those at the bottom less so.
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
All of that is true - statistically. Here's the problem. When your economy has massive structural issues all of that can be true on paper, but in the real economy your lived experience is the opposite. And when people try and quote statistics at you to prove your lived experience is wrong, you react by voting aggressively against those people.
This is also true in America. A few of us were pointing out just how bad things were in the real world back when Rishi had supposedly stabilised the ship and delivered "tax cuts". In reality as prices went up and people saw the "tax cuts" increase the amount of tax they were paying, the anger increased.
Murica voted for Trump because he offered crayon solutions having actually listened to their problems. In Britain an awful number of people are going to vote for Reform for the exact same reason.
At what point does this become a systemic financial crisis?
Good morning
Isn't it already ?
The world order has changed and a new one excluding the US is urgently needed to be formed
Are the world's leaders upto it ?
Not really. It's a "just" a big correction so far, all the markets and banking systems etc are operating fine. Not my area of expertise at all, but it's a little concerning that those PBers who do know something about it are so quiet at the moment...
This made me laugh. I was looking for something that might follow on from my WW1 theme.
AI offers this
"The phrase "It'll All Be Over by Xmas" is a reference to the 1988 album by The Goo Goo Dolls, titled "It's Christmas All Over", which was a collection of Christmas songs, including some original tracks and covers."
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
Doesnt that rather depend on who you are ?
The people at the top had it great, those at the bottom less so.
That's an inequality problem.
How many American politicians, or even Americans in general, are bothered about that ?
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
Doesnt that rather depend on who you are ?
The people at the top had it great, those at the bottom less so.
Trump is certainly changing that. Soon everyone will be poor.
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
Doesnt that rather depend on who you are ?
The people at the top had it great, those at the bottom less so.
Hence the reference to "very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans". But Biden's CHIP Act and other policies to encourage internal production, whilst probably breaching the now defunct WTO rules, were putting the US back towards a viable path, certainly more viable than a step off a cliff.
Murica voted for Trump because he offered crayon solutions having actually listened to their problems. In Britain an awful number of people are going to vote for Reform for the exact same reason.
Yebbut, he made all those real problems worse
There doesn't seem to be a great deal of analysis of what happens when those voters take notice
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
Doesnt that rather depend on who you are ?
The people at the top had it great, those at the bottom less so.
That's an inequality problem.
How many American politicians, or even Americans in general, are bothered about that ?
They only worry when it looks like they ae going to lose access to power. Then it becomes the sodding voters dont know whats good for them and should be silenced.
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
Doesnt that rather depend on who you are ?
The people at the top had it great, those at the bottom less so.
Works both ways - a small drop in earnings for people on the lowest incomes/wealth is devastating compared with a much bigger one for richer people. It also assumes that there is no link between stocks and the economy that poorer people live in, which is wrong. A recession is now highly likely.
To be honest, at first I did wonder if this were one of those situations where it all blows over and settles down, but at what point do we start doing this a crash. The numbers are shocking this morning.
And this is part of Trumps medicine? To make normal Americans poorer?
This week is key. It appears that the trade war is heating up, not cooling down. MAGA claims to have dozens of countries now negotiating with the US. Really? And a negotiation that will go to the US position?
America voted for this. I hope they enjoy Gilead. Because we know where this is going. The US vs ROW trade war makes Murica even more insulated. One of the free speech things they are trying to ram down our throats is the "christian" right funding anti-Abortion campaigners here. As the US closes its borders to the world, with illegal aliens being rounded up out of their homes and workplaces, the womenfolk are next.
As the rout continues this week I hope that global consumers apply even more pressure as Canadian ones have done.
If Kemi has any sense she'll be making "Buy British, don't buy American" announcements.
It seems probable, therefore, that she’ll go on TV to say Trump has every right to erect tariffs.
Its a good test for Kemi to see if she's in some weird bubble.
Didn't KB spend the weekend cheerleading for the idea of a UK-US Big Trade Deal?
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
Doesnt that rather depend on who you are ?
The people at the top had it great, those at the bottom less so.
Hence the reference to "very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans". But Biden's CHIP Act and other policies to encourage internal production, whilst probably breaching the now defunct WTO rules, were putting the US back towards a viable path, certainly more viable than a step off a cliff.
Biden was taking the US to bankruptcy a step at a time. Trump may be doing the same with a great leap, but alternatively if he stops the rot he'll have earned his keep.
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
Doesnt that rather depend on who you are ?
The people at the top had it great, those at the bottom less so.
Trump is certainly changing that. Soon everyone will be poor.
On the plus side, the depression of global economic activity will probably result is a greater cut in CO2 emissions than could otherwise have been achieved. So there is that.
As would the reintroduction of Smallpox. That's not a good idea either.
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
All of that is true - statistically. Here's the problem. When your economy has massive structural issues all of that can be true on paper, but in the real economy your lived experience is the opposite. And when people try and quote statistics at you to prove your lived experience is wrong, you react by voting aggressively against those people.
This is also true in America. A few of us were pointing out just how bad things were in the real world back when Rishi had supposedly stabilised the ship and delivered "tax cuts". In reality as prices went up and people saw the "tax cuts" increase the amount of tax they were paying, the anger increased.
Murica voted for Trump because he offered crayon solutions having actually listened to their problems. In Britain an awful number of people are going to vote for Reform for the exact same reason.
There are millions of people both here and in the USA who thought they were doing badly when in fact they were doing fine.
To @eek and the others questioning a Trump trade deal - I understand and have never really wanted a trade deal with the US anyway, however the negotiations for one were done by the last Tory Government with Trump before Biden came in and stopped it, so they are already quite progressed.
At what point does this become a systemic financial crisis?
Good morning
Isn't it already ?
The world order has changed and a new one excluding the US is urgently needed to be formed
Are the world's leaders upto it ?
Not really. It's a "just" a big correction so far, all the markets and banking systems etc are operating fine. Not my area of expertise at all, but it's a little concerning that those PBers who do know something about it are so quiet at the moment...
The big correction is for recognition of an America which has long been in decline. That decline has been steady decline. It has now been driven to a cliff-edge by Trump. He's now revving the engine.
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
Doesnt that rather depend on who you are ?
The people at the top had it great, those at the bottom less so.
Works both ways - a small drop in earnings for people on the lowest incomes/wealth is devastating compared with a much bigger one for richer people. It also assumes that there is no link between stocks and the economy that poorer people live in, which is wrong. A recession is now highly likely.
When the rich and old stop spending its the young and poor who lose their jobs.
Just noting a particular USA court case, Garcia, which in some ways bodes even worse than the tariffs, and is quickly ongoing. It has had rather subdued coverage in the UK.
1) Garcia, not a USA national, lives in USA and a court order is in force forbidding his removal.
2) He has been captured and sent to an El Salvador prison with no process or rights
3) The USA government agrees it was a mistake and they have acted illegally
4) A judge has ordered his return to the USA by the end of today
5) The USA government has said "Can't, won't".
It is being followed in detail by Brian Tyler Cohen. The latest:
To @eek and the others questioning a Trump trade deal - I understand and have never really wanted a trade deal with the US anyway, however the negotiations for one were done by the last Tory Government with Trump before Biden came in and stopped it, so they are already quite progressed.
Agriculture is the sticking point . So it’s not going to happen .
Just noting a particular USA court case, Garcia, which in some ways bodes even worse than the tariffs, and is quickly ongoing. It has had rather subdued coverage in the UK.
1) Garcia, not a USA national, lives in USA and a court order is in force forbidding his removal.
2) He has been captured and sent to an El Salvador prison with no process or rights
3) The USA government agrees it was a mistake and they have acted illegally
4) A judge has ordered his return to the USA by the end of today
5) The USA government has said "Can't, won't".
It is being followed in detail by Brian Tyler Cohen. The latest:
To @eek and the others questioning a Trump trade deal - I understand and have never really wanted a trade deal with the US anyway, however the negotiations for one were done by the last Tory Government with Trump before Biden came in and stopped it, so they are already quite progressed.
It is virtually impossible to get a UK-US trade deal. It is easy for politicians to talk about getting that trade deal and look like they are a mover and shaker. It is easy for journalists to write about.
Hence after every change of government, here or there, we get discussions on it, but it simply won't happen.
To @eek and the others questioning a Trump trade deal - I understand and have never really wanted a trade deal with the US anyway, however the negotiations for one were done by the last Tory Government with Trump before Biden came in and stopped it, so they are already quite progressed.
Agriculture is the sticking point . So it’s not going to happen .
Well it will only happen if the Government wishes to be known as the Government who destroyed farming and introduced chlorinated chicken to the UK.
So as you correctly state - it's not going to happen...
To be honest, at first I did wonder if this were one of those situations where it all blows over and settles down, but at what point do we start doing this a crash. The numbers are shocking this morning.
And this is part of Trumps medicine? To make normal Americans poorer?
The problem is the lack of any mechanism to stop him. He has Congress, The House, and the Supreme Court. He is divesting all Government Institutions that oppose him of the power. Civil Society is cowed.
Where does the opposition come from?
Sorry to go all Godwin, but it is Nazi Germany all over again.
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
Doesnt that rather depend on who you are ?
The people at the top had it great, those at the bottom less so.
Trump is certainly changing that. Soon everyone will be poor.
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
All of that is true - statistically. Here's the problem. When your economy has massive structural issues all of that can be true on paper, but in the real economy your lived experience is the opposite. And when people try and quote statistics at you to prove your lived experience is wrong, you react by voting aggressively against those people.
This is also true in America. A few of us were pointing out just how bad things were in the real world back when Rishi had supposedly stabilised the ship and delivered "tax cuts". In reality as prices went up and people saw the "tax cuts" increase the amount of tax they were paying, the anger increased.
Murica voted for Trump because he offered crayon solutions having actually listened to their problems. In Britain an awful number of people are going to vote for Reform for the exact same reason.
There are millions of people both here and in the USA who thought they were doing badly when in fact they were doing fine.
Well they'll be doing badly in real life now.
I think you're partly right. It's true that both the media (mainstream and social) and politicians have conviced large numbers of people that they deserve better and that it's somebody else's fault that they don't have better. However, it's also true that rising inequality has created an underclass whose life situation has barely improved at all over the past few decades while others have grown much richer. It really is a toxic combination.
The US/EU trade deal might be a bit if a stretch...
Trump calls for Europe to pay reparations to the US: "We put a big tariff on Europe. They are coming to the table. They want to talk, but there's no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis number one for present but also for past." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1909034677727272997
He's going to fold on the tariffs. This is warming up to a narrative of him extracting a massive deal out of the Europeans.
How can the orange idiot now call for reparations - ongoing annual payments to compensate USA for making crap products that nobody wants to buy?
The art of the squeal...
The problem is that the US isn't making the products it imports - Nike don't make trainers in the US because if they did the retail price would be $500 not $150 (slight exaggeration but not by very much).
This week is key. It appears that the trade war is heating up, not cooling down. MAGA claims to have dozens of countries now negotiating with the US. Really? And a negotiation that will go to the US position?
America voted for this. I hope they enjoy Gilead. Because we know where this is going. The US vs ROW trade war makes Murica even more insulated. One of the free speech things they are trying to ram down our throats is the "christian" right funding anti-Abortion campaigners here. As the US closes its borders to the world, with illegal aliens being rounded up out of their homes and workplaces, the womenfolk are next.
As the rout continues this week I hope that global consumers apply even more pressure as Canadian ones have done.
Good morning, everyone.
That quote made me think of a man standing on a ledge at the top of a tall building. Lots of people will want to negotiate with him too. It doesn't mean he's in an incredibly good position.
Problem is he's a very fat man, ad there are a lot of us standing underneath...
The US/EU trade deal might be a bit if a stretch...
Trump calls for Europe to pay reparations to the US: "We put a big tariff on Europe. They are coming to the table. They want to talk, but there's no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis number one for present but also for past." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1909034677727272997
He's going to fold on the tariffs. This is warming up to a narrative of him extracting a massive deal out of the Europeans.
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
Doesnt that rather depend on who you are ?
The people at the top had it great, those at the bottom less so.
Hence the reference to "very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans". But Biden's CHIP Act and other policies to encourage internal production, whilst probably breaching the now defunct WTO rules, were putting the US back towards a viable path, certainly more viable than a step off a cliff.
Biden was taking the US to bankruptcy a step at a time. Trump may be doing the same with a great leap, but alternatively if he stops the rot he'll have earned his keep.
Too early to say how this works out.
Given a few Trump supporters here are oddly silent about their hero in recent days, it’s nice to see someone standing by his economic strategy.
Sorry, did I say “nice”? I meant, “bonkers”.
Trump is not stopping the rot. He has no understanding of how anything works. He has wrecked the world economy. He is ignoring the rule of law at home. He is going to make Americans, and us, poorer.
At what point does this become a systemic financial crisis?
Good morning
Isn't it already ?
The world order has changed and a new one excluding the US is urgently needed to be formed
Are the world's leaders upto it ?
Not really. It's a "just" a big correction so far, all the markets and banking systems etc are operating fine. Not my area of expertise at all, but it's a little concerning that those PBers who do know something about it are so quiet at the moment...
Notable that the Japanese banks fell about double the market as a whole.
To @eek and the others questioning a Trump trade deal - I understand and have never really wanted a trade deal with the US anyway, however the negotiations for one were done by the last Tory Government with Trump before Biden came in and stopped it, so they are already quite progressed.
Agriculture is the sticking point . So it’s not going to happen .
Well it will only happen if the Government wishes to be known as the Government who destroyed farming and introduced chlorinated chicken to the UK.
So as you correctly state - it's not going to happen...
It should though. UK farming is inefficient and should go the same way as other inefficient industries. Opening our ports to cheap foreign food will reduce the cost of living, especially for the poorest who spend a higher proportion of their budget on food, as it did in the nineteenth century.
It will also enable unproductive agricultural land (and labour and capital) to be used for productive purposes such as houses or industry.
The government, dismal in most respects, has made a decent start by gradually reducing farm subsidies since we left the EU and removing the indefensible inheritance tax exemption but needs to go much further and faster.
Of course the farmers and their protectionist Trumpian allies will complain, as they always do with anything that smacks of economic literacy.
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
Doesnt that rather depend on who you are ?
The people at the top had it great, those at the bottom less so.
Hence the reference to "very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans". But Biden's CHIP Act and other policies to encourage internal production, whilst probably breaching the now defunct WTO rules, were putting the US back towards a viable path, certainly more viable than a step off a cliff.
Biden was taking the US to bankruptcy a step at a time. Trump may be doing the same with a great leap, but alternatively if he stops the rot he'll have earned his keep.
Too early to say how this works out.
Given a few Trump supporters here are oddly silent about their hero in recent days, it’s nice to see someone standing by his economic strategy.
Sorry, did I say “nice”? I meant, “bonkers”.
Trump is not stopping the rot. He has no understanding of how anything works. He has wrecked the world economy. He is ignoring the rule of law at home. He is going to make Americans, and us, poorer.
You dont know what the outcome will be any more than I do.
You just jump on the usual Trump bandwagon and scream like a banshee.
In fact in Trump 1.0 he called several things right. Europeans not carrying their fair share of defence, over dependency of Russian energy, China.
In Trump 2.0 it will be the same he will get some things right and some things wrong. Some of them like tariffs will impact the UK, but the UKs problems fundamentally can only be solved by the UK and Trump is just a distraction.
Some of us have just retired. I think I'm down by my last 2 years salary.
I should know better by now but I'm surprised quite how sheep like the reaction has been. He's been saying he's going to do this for months.
I feel for you anyone retired last year or two and in shares will have lost for sure. I am still working but losing a shedload is still not helpful for sure.
If Len Deighton had written a novel about a Soviet asset who was elected President of the USA and subsequently crashed the West to allow a Soviet invasion of Western Europe, no one would have read such ridiculous nonsense.
Everyone would have stopped reading at the point where a former stock broker from Dulwich assisted by an old Etonian Foreign Secretary who dresses like a clown and attends KGB run parties in Italy, engineers Britain out of the World 's largest friction free trade organisation.
Comments
This is really unfair to everyone who just voted for him for the racism.
https://bsky.app/profile/kenjennings.bsky.social/post/3lm6oqv6vks26
Trump calls for Europe to pay reparations to the US: "We put a big tariff on Europe. They are coming to the table. They want to talk, but there's no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis number one for present but also for past."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1909034677727272997
What a shame.
Trump: We're on track to fully eliminate capital gains tax in 2025
https://x.com/itsCblast/status/1909014434380714457
MOE !
Maybe we all make like Zero Mostel and Gene Wilder in The Producers?
SUPER -CALLOUS -FACIST -RACIST -SEXIST -NAZI -POTUS
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1908230980600791055
https://x.com/neilsocialist/status/1908937011177676997?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
America voted for this. I hope they enjoy Gilead. Because we know where this is going. The US vs ROW trade war makes Murica even more insulated. One of the free speech things they are trying to ram down our throats is the "christian" right funding anti-Abortion campaigners here. As the US closes its borders to the world, with illegal aliens being rounded up out of their homes and workplaces, the womenfolk are next.
As the rout continues this week I hope that global consumers apply even more pressure as Canadian ones have done.
The good news is that, in a fair and balanced election, the rubes don't need to recant, they just need to stay home on the next polling day. That's much easier emotionally. (We saw something a bit similar here in both 1997 and 2024.)
That does depend on future US elections being sufficiently fair and balanced, which is a bit of a tricky call at the best of times.
The Liverpool Echo had the original headline
"SUPER CALLY GOES BALLISTIC, QPR ATROCIOUS" after Ian Callaghan tore apart Queens Park Rangers has been much mimicked.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-magazine-monitor-23878907
Scotland has this entry.
"Drunken bucking bronco gran jailed for biting Orangemen's legs at Ayrshire village fun day".
This is going to be one of those days where positions move by hundreds of pounds in just minutes.
@IGcom
🚨 Defence stocks dive
Rolls-Royce sinks another 12%
Rheinmetall down 20%
FTSE 100 has tumbled from record highs to a 1-year low in just a month.
Banks really being hit in this Monday morning sell off: Bank of Ireland down 6.6%, AIB down 5.8%. Natwest down 8.6%. Hsbc down 5.5%
If she's feeling bold.
That quote made me think of a man standing on a ledge at the top of a tall building. Lots of people will want to negotiate with him too. It doesn't mean he's in an incredibly good position.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
Appeals court judges rule in favor of tossing thousands of ballots in close NC supreme court race
Isn't it already ?
The world order has changed and a new one excluding the US is urgently needed to be formed
Are the world's leaders upto it ?
With markets in free fall, presumably we will hear from the Fed, ECB, the Bank of England and other major central banks today that they will look through the inflationary impact of tariffs and start providing liquidity (cheaper money, lower interest rates). Any markets floor however can’t be found till we hear from Trump and other leading economies that the trade war will NOT be ratcheted up
https://x.com/Peston/status/1909143995936014548
The people at the top had it great, those at the bottom less so.
How can somebody persuade him he won the trade war so he can stop now...
This is also true in America. A few of us were pointing out just how bad things were in the real world back when Rishi had supposedly stabilised the ship and delivered "tax cuts". In reality as prices went up and people saw the "tax cuts" increase the amount of tax they were paying, the anger increased.
Murica voted for Trump because he offered crayon solutions having actually listened to their problems. In Britain an awful number of people are going to vote for Reform for the exact same reason.
AI offers this
"The phrase "It'll All Be Over by Xmas" is a reference to the 1988 album by The Goo Goo Dolls, titled "It's Christmas All Over", which was a collection of Christmas songs, including some original tracks and covers."
How many American politicians, or even Americans in general, are bothered about that ?
Are you sure he's not a communist?
There doesn't seem to be a great deal of analysis of what happens when those voters take notice
To be honest, at first I did wonder if this were one of those situations where it all blows over and settles down, but at what point do we start doing this a crash. The numbers are shocking this morning.
And this is part of Trumps medicine? To make normal Americans poorer?
Too early to say how this works out.
Well they'll be doing badly in real life now.
1) Garcia, not a USA national, lives in USA and a court order is in force forbidding his removal.
2) He has been captured and sent to an El Salvador prison with no process or rights
3) The USA government agrees it was a mistake and they have acted illegally
4) A judge has ordered his return to the USA by the end of today
5) The USA government has said "Can't, won't".
It is being followed in detail by Brian Tyler Cohen. The latest:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOTgWhdkSZk
The art of the squeal...
Hence after every change of government, here or there, we get discussions on it, but it simply won't happen.
So as you correctly state - it's not going to happen...
Where does the opposition come from?
Sorry to go all Godwin, but it is Nazi Germany all over again.
I should know better by now but I'm surprised quite how sheep like the reaction has been. He's been saying he's going to do this for months.
Sorry, did I say “nice”? I meant, “bonkers”.
Trump is not stopping the rot. He has no understanding of how anything works. He has wrecked the world economy. He is ignoring the rule of law at home. He is going to make Americans, and us, poorer.
It will also enable unproductive agricultural land (and labour and capital) to be used for productive purposes such as houses or industry.
The government, dismal in most respects, has made a decent start by gradually reducing farm subsidies since we left the EU and removing the indefensible inheritance tax exemption but needs to go much further and faster.
Of course the farmers and their protectionist Trumpian allies will complain, as they always do with anything that smacks of economic literacy.
You know, that coffee you don't produce. And have to import.
With tariffs.
But the GOP are still a long way off recognising that.
You just jump on the usual Trump bandwagon and scream like a banshee.
In fact in Trump 1.0 he called several things right. Europeans not carrying their fair share of defence, over dependency of Russian energy, China.
In Trump 2.0 it will be the same he will get some things right and some things wrong. Some of them like tariffs will impact the UK, but the UKs problems fundamentally can only be solved by the UK and Trump is just a distraction.
They were half right
***Reviews capital adequacy requirements***
Roger, I was interested in your views on that awful Labour ad featuring Kemi and, I think, Farage. Has it been pulled?
The lesson of the last couple of crashes is that the good falls along with the bad.
And nothing recovers in a hurry.
Everyone would have stopped reading at the point where a former stock broker from Dulwich assisted by an old Etonian Foreign Secretary who dresses like a clown and attends KGB run parties in Italy, engineers Britain out of the World 's largest friction free trade organisation.