FTSE now down 4.5% Dax 7% - less bad than Asia - maybe stabilising. Could be worse....
It will be! Another 10-15% to come in my mind.
Not sure. Got to be people with cash looking at the cheap prices ..
Market crashes overshoot and then bounce back fairly quickly. My best guess would be the Dow bottoms out around 30-33k and ends the year around 40k. Buying now for long term is not terrible imo, but is really bad if any chance of getting spooked and selling in next few weeks.
Some of us have just retired. I think I'm down by my last 2 years salary.
I should know better by now but I'm surprised quite how sheep like the reaction has been. He's been saying he's going to do this for months.
He says lots of things. Some he does, some he doesnt do. Some he reverses after he does them, others he doubles down.
Well, true, but he's been big on tariffs for decades.
Last time there were people who could stop him doing bonkers things but this time we've already seen plenty of evidence that there's absolutely no filter.
If we built a beautiful wall around the US and cut it off, how much smaller would be the world economy be? Surely that must be the rough limit for this crash, albeit with a bit of overshoot.
The US/EU trade deal might be a bit if a stretch...
Trump calls for Europe to pay reparations to the US: "We put a big tariff on Europe. They are coming to the table. They want to talk, but there's no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis number one for present but also for past." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1909034677727272997
Top trolling.
I’m guessing this is one set of reparations the reparations loons on the left won’t be in favour of.
If Len Deighton had written a novel about a Soviet asset who was elected President of the USA and subsequently crashed the West to allow a Soviet invasion of Western Europe, no one would have read such ridiculous nonsense.
Everyone would have stopped reading at the point where a former stock broker from Dulwich assisted by an old Etonian Foreign Secretary who dresses like a clown and attends KGB run parties in Italy, engineers Britain out of the World 's largest friction free trade organisation.
Just noting a particular USA court case, Garcia, which in some ways bodes even worse than the tariffs, and is quickly ongoing. It has had rather subdued coverage in the UK.
1) Garcia, not a USA national, lives in USA and a court order is in force forbidding his removal.
2) He has been captured and sent to an El Salvador prison with no process or rights
3) The USA government agrees it was a mistake and they have acted illegally
4) A judge has ordered his return to the USA by the end of today
5) The USA government has said "Can't, won't".
It is being followed in detail by Brian Tyler Cohen. The latest:
Some of us have just retired. I think I'm down by my last 2 years salary.
I should know better by now but I'm surprised quite how sheep like the reaction has been. He's been saying he's going to do this for months.
I feel for you anyone retired last year or two and in shares will have lost for sure. I am still working but losing a shedload is still not helpful for sure.
Got to say I'm factoring in another year of (part time by then) working.
“The president stands as much chance of reindustrializing the U.S. as you do of getting your frozen laptop to work by smashing the motherboard with a ‘Minecraft’ hammer.”
Banks really being hit in this Monday morning sell off: Bank of Ireland down 6.6%, AIB down 5.8%. Natwest down 8.6%. Hsbc down 5.5%
I am regretting being the Head of Regulatory Affairs of a bank and wider financial services institution.
***Reviews capital adequacy requirements***
Start on the basis that you are likely to breach those requirements and go from there..
For context, we didn’t come close to breaching those during the pandemic nor did any other major bank (thanks to George Osborne and Martin Vickers) but I suspect a few might if things continue like this.
To @eek and the others questioning a Trump trade deal - I understand and have never really wanted a trade deal with the US anyway, however the negotiations for one were done by the last Tory Government with Trump before Biden came in and stopped it, so they are already quite progressed.
Agriculture is the sticking point . So it’s not going to happen .
Well it will only happen if the Government wishes to be known as the Government who destroyed farming and introduced chlorinated chicken to the UK.
So as you correctly state - it's not going to happen...
It should though. UK farming is inefficient and should go the same way as other inefficient industries. Opening our ports to cheap foreign food will reduce the cost of living, especially for the poorest who spend a higher proportion of their budget on food, as it did in the nineteenth century.
It will also enable unproductive agricultural land (and labour and capital) to be used for productive purposes such as houses or industry.
The government, dismal in most respects, has made a decent start by gradually reducing farm subsidies since we left the EU and removing the indefensible inheritance tax exemption but needs to go much further and faster.
Of course the farmers and their protectionist Trumpian allies will complain, as they always do with anything that smacks of economic literacy.
Here are a couple of things we should not outsource to the global lowest bidders. One is food security, another is our armed forces, another is the keeping of state secrets. Others come to mind. Of these, food security is the most important and the first we would notice when something goes wrong.
The US/EU trade deal might be a bit if a stretch...
Trump calls for Europe to pay reparations to the US: "We put a big tariff on Europe. They are coming to the table. They want to talk, but there's no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis number one for present but also for past." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1909034677727272997
Hold on - isn't it all Biden's and therefore America's fault that Russia invaded Ukraine which has cost Europe a massive drop in living standards plus all the aid we give Ukraine. We should charge the US for that - should be many trillions - as a precondition for starting talks.
Banks really being hit in this Monday morning sell off: Bank of Ireland down 6.6%, AIB down 5.8%. Natwest down 8.6%. Hsbc down 5.5%
I am regretting being the Head of Regulatory Affairs of a bank and wider financial services institution.
***Reviews capital adequacy requirements***
I feel your pain! Glad I am out of it now, but if I was back in the office I would be checking the Market Makers for sudden long positions in now-illiquid stocks, and making sure the client money was in more than one different bank. Corporate Finance meetings would be even more depressing than usual, and the analysts would all be sitting around saying "I told you so!" despite the evidence of the notes they produced last week.
Some of us have just retired. I think I'm down by my last 2 years salary.
I should know better by now but I'm surprised quite how sheep like the reaction has been. He's been saying he's going to do this for months.
I’ve just retired. I’m not too bothered. I’m down as well but I’m confident longer term this will recover and I’m fortunate enough to have moved my company DC pension to my SIPP and asked for it to go into cash and this went through before the collapse. I asked for it in cash as I wasn’t sure how long it would take not because I expected this. So it’s probably 75% luck 25% judgement.
Everything is taking a pasting at the moment. Quality will come back.
To @eek and the others questioning a Trump trade deal - I understand and have never really wanted a trade deal with the US anyway, however the negotiations for one were done by the last Tory Government with Trump before Biden came in and stopped it, so they are already quite progressed.
Agriculture is the sticking point . So it’s not going to happen .
Well it will only happen if the Government wishes to be known as the Government who destroyed farming and introduced chlorinated chicken to the UK.
So as you correctly state - it's not going to happen...
It should though. UK farming is inefficient and should go the same way as other inefficient industries. Opening our ports to cheap foreign food will reduce the cost of living, especially for the poorest who spend a higher proportion of their budget on food, as it did in the nineteenth century.
It will also enable unproductive agricultural land (and labour and capital) to be used for productive purposes such as houses or industry.
The government, dismal in most respects, has made a decent start by gradually reducing farm subsidies since we left the EU and removing the indefensible inheritance tax exemption but needs to go much further and faster.
Of course the farmers and their protectionist Trumpian allies will complain, as they always do with anything that smacks of economic literacy.
Here are a couple of things we should not outsource to the global lowest bidders. One is food security, another is our armed forces, another is the keeping of state secrets. Others come to mind. Of these, food security is the most important and the first we would notice when something goes wrong.
Judging by covid we would notice a bog roll shortage before we noticed the lack of food.
If Len Deighton had written a novel about a Soviet asset who was elected President of the USA and subsequently crashed the West to allow a Soviet invasion of Western Europe, no one would have read such ridiculous nonsense.
Everyone would have stopped reading at the point where a former stock broker from Dulwich assisted by an old Etonian Foreign Secretary who dresses like a clown and attends KGB run parties in Italy, engineers Britain out of the World 's largest friction free trade organisation.
A coup is taking place in the USA. Is a counter-coup out of the question?
If Len Deighton had written a novel about a Soviet asset who was elected President of the USA and subsequently crashed the West to allow a Soviet invasion of Western Europe, no one would have read such ridiculous nonsense.
Everyone would have stopped reading at the point where a former stock broker from Dulwich assisted by an old Etonian Foreign Secretary who dresses like a clown and attends KGB run parties in Italy, engineers Britain out of the World 's largest friction free trade organisation.
A coup is taking place in the USA. Is a counter-coup out of the question?
Banks really being hit in this Monday morning sell off: Bank of Ireland down 6.6%, AIB down 5.8%. Natwest down 8.6%. Hsbc down 5.5%
I am regretting being the Head of Regulatory Affairs of a bank and wider financial services institution.
***Reviews capital adequacy requirements***
I feel your pain! Glad I am out of it now, but if I was back in the office I would be checking the Market Makers for sudden long positions in now-illiquid stocks, and making sure the client money was in more than one different bank. Corporate Finance meetings would be even more depressing than usual, and the analysts would all be sitting around saying "I told you so!" despite the evidence of the notes they produced last week.
Funny you say that.
Last week a bank, cannot remember which, had Nvidia as a hold at $103
FTSE now down 4.5% Dax 7% - less bad than Asia - maybe stabilising. Could be worse....
It will be! Another 10-15% to come in my mind.
Not sure. Got to be people with cash looking at the cheap prices ..
Market crashes overshoot and then bounce back fairly quickly. My best guess would be the Dow bottoms out around 30-33k and ends the year around 40k. Buying now for long term is not terrible imo, but is really bad if any chance of getting spooked and selling in next few weeks.
Usually it takes six months for markets to bottom out (covid wave 1 was an exception) so I am in no hurry to go looking for bargains. Now about 35% cash, but in large part due to equity shrinkage rather than sales.
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
Doesnt that rather depend on who you are ?
The people at the top had it great, those at the bottom less so.
Hence the reference to "very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans". But Biden's CHIP Act and other policies to encourage internal production, whilst probably breaching the now defunct WTO rules, were putting the US back towards a viable path, certainly more viable than a step off a cliff.
Biden was taking the US to bankruptcy a step at a time. Trump may be doing the same with a great leap, but alternatively if he stops the rot he'll have earned his keep.
Too early to say how this works out.
Given a few Trump supporters here are oddly silent about their hero in recent days, it’s nice to see someone standing by his economic strategy.
Sorry, did I say “nice”? I meant, “bonkers”.
Trump is not stopping the rot. He has no understanding of how anything works. He has wrecked the world economy. He is ignoring the rule of law at home. He is going to make Americans, and us, poorer.
You dont know what the outcome will be any more than I do.
You just jump on the usual Trump bandwagon and scream like a banshee.
In fact in Trump 1.0 he called several things right. Europeans not carrying their fair share of defence, over dependency of Russian energy, China.
In Trump 2.0 it will be the same he will get some things right and some things wrong. Some of them like tariffs will impact the UK, but the UKs problems fundamentally can only be solved by the UK and Trump is just a distraction.
If Len Deighton had written a novel about a Soviet asset who was elected President of the USA and subsequently crashed the West to allow a Soviet invasion of Western Europe, no one would have read such ridiculous nonsense.
Everyone would have stopped reading at the point where a former stock broker from Dulwich assisted by an old Etonian Foreign Secretary who dresses like a clown and attends KGB run parties in Italy, engineers Britain out of the World 's largest friction free trade organisation.
A coup is taking place in the USA. Is a counter-coup out of the question?
President Vance might be worse.
That's an interesting question
Although Vance is arguably more dangerous than Trump, he has none of the personal support
Truss was more dangerous than BoZo, but the Tories had no qualms about ditching her compared to him
I think if trump falls, the GOP try and claim a return to sanity which they won't let Vance mess up
Banks really being hit in this Monday morning sell off: Bank of Ireland down 6.6%, AIB down 5.8%. Natwest down 8.6%. Hsbc down 5.5%
I am regretting being the Head of Regulatory Affairs of a bank and wider financial services institution.
***Reviews capital adequacy requirements***
I feel your pain! Glad I am out of it now, but if I was back in the office I would be checking the Market Makers for sudden long positions in now-illiquid stocks, and making sure the client money was in more than one different bank. Corporate Finance meetings would be even more depressing than usual, and the analysts would all be sitting around saying "I told you so!" despite the evidence of the notes they produced last week.
Funny you say that.
Last week a bank, cannot remember which, had Nvidia as a hold at $103
Only a month or so before it was a buy at $153 !
Set trends or follow them
"A trend is a trend is a trend, But the question is, will it bend?"
To @eek and the others questioning a Trump trade deal - I understand and have never really wanted a trade deal with the US anyway, however the negotiations for one were done by the last Tory Government with Trump before Biden came in and stopped it, so they are already quite progressed.
Agriculture is the sticking point . So it’s not going to happen .
Well it will only happen if the Government wishes to be known as the Government who destroyed farming and introduced chlorinated chicken to the UK.
So as you correctly state - it's not going to happen...
It should though. UK farming is inefficient and should go the same way as other inefficient industries. Opening our ports to cheap foreign food will reduce the cost of living, especially for the poorest who spend a higher proportion of their budget on food, as it did in the nineteenth century.
It will also enable unproductive agricultural land (and labour and capital) to be used for productive purposes such as houses or industry.
The government, dismal in most respects, has made a decent start by gradually reducing farm subsidies since we left the EU and removing the indefensible inheritance tax exemption but needs to go much further and faster.
Of course the farmers and their protectionist Trumpian allies will complain, as they always do with anything that smacks of economic literacy.
Here are a couple of things we should not outsource to the global lowest bidders. One is food security, another is our armed forces, another is the keeping of state secrets. Others come to mind. Of these, food security is the most important and the first we would notice when something goes wrong.
The US/EU trade deal might be a bit if a stretch...
Trump calls for Europe to pay reparations to the US: "We put a big tariff on Europe. They are coming to the table. They want to talk, but there's no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis number one for present but also for past." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1909034677727272997
Hold on - isn't it all Biden's and therefore America's fault that Russia invaded Ukraine which has cost Europe a massive drop in living standards plus all the aid we give Ukraine. We should charge the US for that - should be many trillions - as a precondition for starting talks.
I see you're getting the hang of how trade wars work.
The US/EU trade deal might be a bit if a stretch...
Trump calls for Europe to pay reparations to the US: "We put a big tariff on Europe. They are coming to the table. They want to talk, but there's no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis number one for present but also for past." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1909034677727272997
Trump really is raving mad at this point. Just some of the things he "thinks" include, zero deficits are possible or desirable, tariffs are paid by other countries, countries must pay us to trade. This would fail any pupil doing GCSE business studies.
If Len Deighton had written a novel about a Soviet asset who was elected President of the USA and subsequently crashed the West to allow a Soviet invasion of Western Europe, no one would have read such ridiculous nonsense.
Everyone would have stopped reading at the point where a former stock broker from Dulwich assisted by an old Etonian Foreign Secretary who dresses like a clown and attends KGB run parties in Italy, engineers Britain out of the World 's largest friction free trade organisation.
A coup is taking place in the USA. Is a counter-coup out of the question?
President Vance might be worse.
That's an interesting question
Although Vance is arguably more dangerous than Trump, he has none of the personal support
Truss was more dangerous than BoZo, but the Tories had no qualms about ditching her compared to him
I think if trump falls, the GOP try and claim a return to sanity which they won't let Vance mess up
Vance is part of the regime, and has (publicly at least) been in lock-step with Trump over the tariffs. The poison us on his hands, too.
The US/EU trade deal might be a bit if a stretch...
Trump calls for Europe to pay reparations to the US: "We put a big tariff on Europe. They are coming to the table. They want to talk, but there's no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis number one for present but also for past." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1909034677727272997
Hold on - isn't it all Biden's and therefore America's fault that Russia invaded Ukraine which has cost Europe a massive drop in living standards plus all the aid we give Ukraine. We should charge the US for that - should be many trillions - as a precondition for starting talks.
If Len Deighton had written a novel about a Soviet asset who was elected President of the USA and subsequently crashed the West to allow a Soviet invasion of Western Europe, no one would have read such ridiculous nonsense.
Everyone would have stopped reading at the point where a former stock broker from Dulwich assisted by an old Etonian Foreign Secretary who dresses like a clown and attends KGB run parties in Italy, engineers Britain out of the World 's largest friction free trade organisation.
A coup is taking place in the USA. Is a counter-coup out of the question?
President Vance might be worse.
That's an interesting question
Although Vance is arguably more dangerous than Trump, he has none of the personal support
Truss was more dangerous than BoZo, but the Tories had no qualms about ditching her compared to him
I think if trump falls, the GOP try and claim a return to sanity which they won't let Vance mess up
Vance is part of the regime, and has (publicly at least) been in lock-step with Trump over the tariffs. The poison us on his hands, too.
There are quite a few true believers like that in the administration. I don't think this resolves itself quickly.
Of course whether the tariffs damage the GOP or not depends on whether the cost of living rise they bring about outweighs any increase in US manufacturing jobs created. Plus whether consumers switch more to buying US produced goods instead.
Boris did end EEA free movement but massively increased non EU immigration instead. Rishi actually started to reverse that when they tightened visa wage requirements for migrants and restricted the ability of dependents to be brought in
“The president stands as much chance of reindustrializing the U.S. as you do of getting your frozen laptop to work by smashing the motherboard with a ‘Minecraft’ hammer.”
Dan Norris, the Labour MP and West of England mayor, has been accused of bullying and harassment by staff at a local authority, The Telegraph can reveal.
The accusations were made against Mr Norris in his role as mayor
In recent years, the authority has handed over hundreds of thousands of pounds in taxpayers’ money to pay off former employees.
The US/EU trade deal might be a bit if a stretch...
Trump calls for Europe to pay reparations to the US: "We put a big tariff on Europe. They are coming to the table. They want to talk, but there's no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis number one for present but also for past." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1909034677727272997
Trump really is raving mad at this point. Just some of the things he "thinks" include, zero deficits are possible or desirable, tariffs are paid by other countries, countries must pay us to trade. This would fail any pupil doing GCSE business studies.
Yes, he's a blubbering idiot
But so far the whole regime are prepared to go along with it
Look at all the numpties who went on TV yesterday and committed to 'allowing the President to do his thing"
If Len Deighton had written a novel about a Soviet asset who was elected President of the USA and subsequently crashed the West to allow a Soviet invasion of Western Europe, no one would have read such ridiculous nonsense.
Everyone would have stopped reading at the point where a former stock broker from Dulwich assisted by an old Etonian Foreign Secretary who dresses like a clown and attends KGB run parties in Italy, engineers Britain out of the World 's largest friction free trade organisation.
A coup is taking place in the USA. Is a counter-coup out of the question?
President Vance might be worse.
That's an interesting question
Although Vance is arguably more dangerous than Trump, he has none of the personal support
Truss was more dangerous than BoZo, but the Tories had no qualms about ditching her compared to him
I think if trump falls, the GOP try and claim a return to sanity which they won't let Vance mess up
Currently Republican primary voters are split between Vance and Trump jr for next time, they alone pick the GOP candidate not GOP Congressional representatives and Senators
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
"Low information voters".....Is that the polite way of referring to Faragists?
It's an impolite way, but accurate.
Roger, I was interested in your views on that awful Labour ad featuring Kemi and, I think, Farage. Has it been pulled?
I don't know but I don't believe it was genuine. No Ad agency would produce something that couldn't work. Even the most junior trainee put down artist would have spotted the problem. It's possible they did it in-house and if so it'll teach them a useful lesson.
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
Doesnt that rather depend on who you are ?
The people at the top had it great, those at the bottom less so.
Hence the reference to "very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans". But Biden's CHIP Act and other policies to encourage internal production, whilst probably breaching the now defunct WTO rules, were putting the US back towards a viable path, certainly more viable than a step off a cliff.
Biden was taking the US to bankruptcy a step at a time. Trump may be doing the same with a great leap, but alternatively if he stops the rot he'll have earned his keep.
Too early to say how this works out.
Given a few Trump supporters here are oddly silent about their hero in recent days, it’s nice to see someone standing by his economic strategy.
Sorry, did I say “nice”? I meant, “bonkers”.
Trump is not stopping the rot. He has no understanding of how anything works. He has wrecked the world economy. He is ignoring the rule of law at home. He is going to make Americans, and us, poorer.
You dont know what the outcome will be any more than I do.
You just jump on the usual Trump bandwagon and scream like a banshee.
In fact in Trump 1.0 he called several things right. Europeans not carrying their fair share of defence, over dependency of Russian energy, China.
In Trump 2.0 it will be the same he will get some things right and some things wrong. Some of them like tariffs will impact the UK, but the UKs problems fundamentally can only be solved by the UK and Trump is just a distraction.
The outcome will be awful. Stay in your lane, "Reeves is crap".
Dan Norris, the Labour MP and West of England mayor, has been accused of bullying and harassment by staff at a local authority, The Telegraph can reveal.
The accusations were made against Mr Norris in his role as mayor
In recent years, the authority has handed over hundreds of thousands of pounds in taxpayers’ money to pay off former employees.
I suspect tomorrow will see a relief from the market panic and then it’s down to what happens with China on Thursday .
I’m not convinced those tariffs have been priced in yet as there might be some thinking there will be some last minute agreement.
China is the biggest origin of cheap dumped goods on the US market, even Biden tariffed Chinese imports so it would be political suicide with his base for Trump to abandon his tariffs on Chinese imports
The US/EU trade deal might be a bit if a stretch...
Trump calls for Europe to pay reparations to the US: "We put a big tariff on Europe. They are coming to the table. They want to talk, but there's no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis number one for present but also for past." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1909034677727272997
Hold on - isn't it all Biden's and therefore America's fault that Russia invaded Ukraine which has cost Europe a massive drop in living standards plus all the aid we give Ukraine. We should charge the US for that - should be many trillions - as a precondition for starting talks.
FTSE now down 4.5% Dax 7% - less bad than Asia - maybe stabilising. Could be worse....
It will be! Another 10-15% to come in my mind.
Not sure. Got to be people with cash looking at the cheap prices ..
Market crashes overshoot and then bounce back fairly quickly. My best guess would be the Dow bottoms out around 30-33k and ends the year around 40k. Buying now for long term is not terrible imo, but is really bad if any chance of getting spooked and selling in next few weeks.
Usually it takes six months for markets to bottom out (covid wave 1 was an exception) so I am in no hurry to go looking for bargains. Now about 35% cash, but in large part due to equity shrinkage rather than sales.
Unusually though it's very obvious what caused this crash and what would fix it. All Trump has to do is claim some (potentially imagined) victory and reverse himself and markets might bounce back?
If Len Deighton had written a novel about a Soviet asset who was elected President of the USA and subsequently crashed the West to allow a Soviet invasion of Western Europe, no one would have read such ridiculous nonsense.
Everyone would have stopped reading at the point where a former stock broker from Dulwich assisted by an old Etonian Foreign Secretary who dresses like a clown and attends KGB run parties in Italy, engineers Britain out of the World 's largest friction free trade organisation.
A coup is taking place in the USA. Is a counter-coup out of the question?
President Vance might be worse.
If the Dow went down 10% this afternoon I think we'd see some action. You get the feeling this is spiralling..........
"Think big, think positive, never show any sign of weakness. Always go for the throat. Buy low, sell high. Fear? That's the other guy's problem. Nothing you have ever experienced will prepare you for the absolute carnage you are about to witness. Super Bowl, World Series - they don't know what pressure is. In this building, it's either kill or be killed. You make no friends in the pits and you take no prisoners. One minute you're up half a million in soybeans and the next, boom, your kids don't go to college and they've repossessed your Bentley. Are you with me?" - Dan Aykroyd in "Trading Places".
The US/EU trade deal might be a bit if a stretch...
Trump calls for Europe to pay reparations to the US: "We put a big tariff on Europe. They are coming to the table. They want to talk, but there's no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis number one for present but also for past." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1909034677727272997
Trump really is raving mad at this point. Just some of the things he "thinks" include, zero deficits are possible or desirable, tariffs are paid by other countries, countries must pay us to trade. This would fail any pupil doing GCSE business studies.
Yes, he's a blubbering idiot
But so far the whole regime are prepared to go along with it
Look at all the numpties who went on TV yesterday and committed to 'allowing the President to do his thing"
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
"Low information voters".....Is that the polite way of referring to Faragists?
It's an impolite way, but accurate.
Roger, I was interested in your views on that awful Labour ad featuring Kemi and, I think, Farage. Has it been pulled?
I don't know but I don't believe it was genuine. No Ad agency would produce something that couldn't work. Even the most junior trainee put down artist would have spotted the problem. It's possible they did it in-house and if so it'll teach them a useful lesson.
Trevor Philips on Sky yesterday morning confronted Darren Jones saying it was disgusting only for Jones to defend it
Amid Trump tariff chaos, People’s Daily published an editorial today urging everyone to “Focus on Doing Your Own Things”—a phrase that sums up China’s core strategy. This thread breaks it down.
Bottom line is that they'd still probably prefer to deal with the US than go to an all out trade war - but they're certainly not going to roll over for Trump.
We're probably in that stupid situation where face is more important to both sides than the actual outcome. Which could turn out very badly for the world.
The US/EU trade deal might be a bit if a stretch...
Trump calls for Europe to pay reparations to the US: "We put a big tariff on Europe. They are coming to the table. They want to talk, but there's no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis number one for present but also for past." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1909034677727272997
Trump really is raving mad at this point. Just some of the things he "thinks" include, zero deficits are possible or desirable, tariffs are paid by other countries, countries must pay us to trade. This would fail any pupil doing GCSE business studies.
Yes, he's a blubbering idiot
But so far the whole regime are prepared to go along with it
Look at all the numpties who went on TV yesterday and committed to 'allowing the President to do his thing"
Bottom line is that the realisation of that fact- that America isn't top nation for everything any more- is what sends Trump and MAGAhats utterly potty.
Office cleaning firm charge up 9.8% from last year.
Doesn’t surprise me at all - in fact given the NI and minimum wage changes I think you’ve got off lightly - I’ve seen a lot of changes at 12% for that type of work.
In fact we had to tell someone last week that the minimum wage increase was April 1st so go back and rerun the payments for last week before HMRC come call g
The US/EU trade deal might be a bit if a stretch...
Trump calls for Europe to pay reparations to the US: "We put a big tariff on Europe. They are coming to the table. They want to talk, but there's no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis number one for present but also for past." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1909034677727272997
Hold on - isn't it all Biden's and therefore America's fault that Russia invaded Ukraine which has cost Europe a massive drop in living standards plus all the aid we give Ukraine. We should charge the US for that - should be many trillions - as a precondition for starting talks.
Bit early to be smoking crack isn’t it ?
I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue...
You can't tell whether or not the hallucinations have cleared up ?
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
They had an economy that had record employment, inflation coming down to target, a rapidly increasing number of new industrial jobs and benefitting from more infrastructure spending than had been seen in decades.
There was a lot wrong too, a large trade deficit, a significant, if declining, fiscal deficit and very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans. But compared with what they have now, it was nirvana.
Doesnt that rather depend on who you are ?
The people at the top had it great, those at the bottom less so.
Hence the reference to "very little improvement in the standard of living for many Americans". But Biden's CHIP Act and other policies to encourage internal production, whilst probably breaching the now defunct WTO rules, were putting the US back towards a viable path, certainly more viable than a step off a cliff.
Biden was taking the US to bankruptcy a step at a time. Trump may be doing the same with a great leap, but alternatively if he stops the rot he'll have earned his keep.
Too early to say how this works out.
Given a few Trump supporters here are oddly silent about their hero in recent days, it’s nice to see someone standing by his economic strategy.
Sorry, did I say “nice”? I meant, “bonkers”.
Trump is not stopping the rot. He has no understanding of how anything works. He has wrecked the world economy. He is ignoring the rule of law at home. He is going to make Americans, and us, poorer.
You dont know what the outcome will be any more than I do.
You just jump on the usual Trump bandwagon and scream like a banshee.
In fact in Trump 1.0 he called several things right. Europeans not carrying their fair share of defence, over dependency of Russian energy, China.
In Trump 2.0 it will be the same he will get some things right and some things wrong. Some of them like tariffs will impact the UK, but the UKs problems fundamentally can only be solved by the UK and Trump is just a distraction.
The outcome will be awful. Stay in your lane, "Reeves is crap".
Whilst other countries will be looking at ways to boost their economies, the Treasury will be persuading the Government that austerity is the only alternative.
To @eek and the others questioning a Trump trade deal - I understand and have never really wanted a trade deal with the US anyway, however the negotiations for one were done by the last Tory Government with Trump before Biden came in and stopped it, so they are already quite progressed.
Agriculture is the sticking point . So it’s not going to happen .
Well it will only happen if the Government wishes to be known as the Government who destroyed farming and introduced chlorinated chicken to the UK.
So as you correctly state - it's not going to happen...
It should though. UK farming is inefficient and should go the same way as other inefficient industries. Opening our ports to cheap foreign food will reduce the cost of living, especially for the poorest who spend a higher proportion of their budget on food, as it did in the nineteenth century.
It will also enable unproductive agricultural land (and labour and capital) to be used for productive purposes such as houses or industry.
The government, dismal in most respects, has made a decent start by gradually reducing farm subsidies since we left the EU and removing the indefensible inheritance tax exemption but needs to go much further and faster.
Of course the farmers and their protectionist Trumpian allies will complain, as they always do with anything that smacks of economic literacy.
I assume that is satire otherwise it is one of the worst posts I have ever read on PB.
Hitting our farming industry at a time we have lost grain supplies from Ukraine and Russia and have left the EU and are in a tariff war with the USA and saying we can just rely on food imports is absurd.
It is no wonder this government is one of the most unpopular since records began with policies like that
Dan Norris, the Labour MP and West of England mayor, has been accused of bullying and harassment by staff at a local authority, The Telegraph can reveal.
The accusations were made against Mr Norris in his role as mayor
In recent years, the authority has handed over hundreds of thousands of pounds in taxpayers’ money to pay off former employees.
Had his legal difficulties at the weekend not come out this would not even have got a mention.
Because he would have argued the issue was tittle tattle and did not reflect reality. Hard to do that when there is other evidence in the public domain to back up the allegation
I am not sure how he is drawing this conclusion. I would have thought a more realistic take is the market isn't confident that other countries trust him to do deals, will instead try to isolate Ametica and that is the massive flaw in this whole power play.
To @eek and the others questioning a Trump trade deal - I understand and have never really wanted a trade deal with the US anyway, however the negotiations for one were done by the last Tory Government with Trump before Biden came in and stopped it, so they are already quite progressed.
Agriculture is the sticking point . So it’s not going to happen .
Well it will only happen if the Government wishes to be known as the Government who destroyed farming and introduced chlorinated chicken to the UK.
So as you correctly state - it's not going to happen...
It should though. UK farming is inefficient and should go the same way as other inefficient industries. Opening our ports to cheap foreign food will reduce the cost of living, especially for the poorest who spend a higher proportion of their budget on food, as it did in the nineteenth century.
It will also enable unproductive agricultural land (and labour and capital) to be used for productive purposes such as houses or industry.
The government, dismal in most respects, has made a decent start by gradually reducing farm subsidies since we left the EU and removing the indefensible inheritance tax exemption but needs to go much further and faster.
Of course the farmers and their protectionist Trumpian allies will complain, as they always do with anything that smacks of economic literacy.
UK farming is relatively efficient - compared with many European countries.
A major reason for inefficiency is the massive legal constraints on farming. See the discussion on US sourced chicken yesterday. We have as a society, mandated that farming land must be used in a constrained fashion.
It's about choices. You could get production prices down to the lowest in the world, if you let rip. But people like hedge rows. And limits on chemicals. And....
As to using agricultural land for other purposes (houses) - that is carefully and expressly forbidden. Hence the chap I knew, who could never get the police to come out for thefts and vandalism. But the authorities raced to his farm when he started putting the roof back on an old, abandoned building. For fear of he might be creating.... a house!
If Len Deighton had written a novel about a Soviet asset who was elected President of the USA and subsequently crashed the West to allow a Soviet invasion of Western Europe, no one would have read such ridiculous nonsense.
Everyone would have stopped reading at the point where a former stock broker from Dulwich assisted by an old Etonian Foreign Secretary who dresses like a clown and attends KGB run parties in Italy, engineers Britain out of the World 's largest friction free trade organisation.
While Putin may want to rebuild the USSR even he has said he does not want to invade Western Europe
The EU doesn't seem to be planning to blink first, either.
Acting German economy minister Robert Habeck:
“That is what I see, that Donald Trump will buckle under pressure, that he corrects his announcements under pressure, but the logical consequence is that he then also needs to feel the pressure,”. https://x.com/JackRyanlives/status/1909084292719796383
To @eek and the others questioning a Trump trade deal - I understand and have never really wanted a trade deal with the US anyway, however the negotiations for one were done by the last Tory Government with Trump before Biden came in and stopped it, so they are already quite progressed.
Agriculture is the sticking point . So it’s not going to happen .
Well it will only happen if the Government wishes to be known as the Government who destroyed farming and introduced chlorinated chicken to the UK.
So as you correctly state - it's not going to happen...
It should though. UK farming is inefficient and should go the same way as other inefficient industries. Opening our ports to cheap foreign food will reduce the cost of living, especially for the poorest who spend a higher proportion of their budget on food, as it did in the nineteenth century.
It will also enable unproductive agricultural land (and labour and capital) to be used for productive purposes such as houses or industry.
The government, dismal in most respects, has made a decent start by gradually reducing farm subsidies since we left the EU and removing the indefensible inheritance tax exemption but needs to go much further and faster.
Of course the farmers and their protectionist Trumpian allies will complain, as they always do with anything that smacks of economic literacy.
UK farming is relatively efficient - compared with many European countries.
A major reason for inefficiency is the massive legal constraints on farming. See the discussion on US sourced chicken yesterday. We have as a society, mandated that farming land must be used in a constrained fashion.
It's about choices. You could get production prices down to the lowest in the world, if you let rip. But people like hedge rows. And limits on chemicals. And....
As to using agricultural land for other purposes (houses) - that is carefully and expressly forbidden. Hence the chap I knew, who could never get the police to come out for thefts and vandalism. But the authorities raced to his farm when he started putting the roof back on an old, abandoned building. For fear of he might be creating.... a house!
He better not make any spicy tweets or write any grumpy emails....otherwise the whole police force will descend on him given his previous behaviour.
Taiwan President William Lai offered zero tariffs as the basis for talks with the US and will not retaliate against the US’s 32% tariffs on Taiwan exports, media report, adding he pledged to remove trade barriers and boost investment by Taiwan companies in the US to “deepen Taiwan-US cooperation.” https://x.com/dnystedt/status/1909067829435047972
Of course whether the tariffs damage the GOP or not depends on whether the cost of living rise they bring about outweighs any increase in US manufacturing jobs created. Plus whether consumers switch more to buying US produced goods instead.
The cost of living will rise and rise steeply - basic maths tells us that. The American economy relies on consumerism and so many of the things Americans buy are made elsewhere.
As for manufacturing jobs being created, there will be a few, but they will be despite of not because of tariffs. A lot of talk over the weekend about Nintendo after they have switched off pre-orders in the US for the Switch 2. Pricing for the US had already been set high and supposedly Nintendo have built some inventory there before the trade barriers came down.
But ongoing? Why sell the unit for $449 - already high - when it will quickly need to be $600. And the games many of which are digital download - you're now looking at $120 a game.
Which American goods do you expect consumers to buy instead?
In other news, I've just booked my first triathlon of the year. A sprint race, pool-based, on Easter Sunday! It should be a nice and easy start to the season. My next race will probably be my first Olympic distance, a fortnight later.
I'm getting my usual oh-my-God-what-am-I-doing feeling now I've booked it...
Amid Trump tariff chaos, People’s Daily published an editorial today urging everyone to “Focus on Doing Your Own Things”—a phrase that sums up China’s core strategy. This thread breaks it down.
Bottom line is that they'd still probably prefer to deal with the US than go to an all out trade war - but they're certainly not going to roll over for Trump.
We're probably in that stupid situation where face is more important to both sides than the actual outcome. Which could turn out very badly for the world.
They can't. Trump wants to end manufacturing of everything in China. What he wants is to carve a very large chunk out of the Chinese economy. Xi & Co. know that would be existential for them - the current political settlement is that they provide prosperity and in return the oligarchy is tolerated.
To @eek and the others questioning a Trump trade deal - I understand and have never really wanted a trade deal with the US anyway, however the negotiations for one were done by the last Tory Government with Trump before Biden came in and stopped it, so they are already quite progressed.
Agriculture is the sticking point . So it’s not going to happen .
Well it will only happen if the Government wishes to be known as the Government who destroyed farming and introduced chlorinated chicken to the UK.
So as you correctly state - it's not going to happen...
It should though. UK farming is inefficient and should go the same way as other inefficient industries. Opening our ports to cheap foreign food will reduce the cost of living, especially for the poorest who spend a higher proportion of their budget on food, as it did in the nineteenth century.
It will also enable unproductive agricultural land (and labour and capital) to be used for productive purposes such as houses or industry.
The government, dismal in most respects, has made a decent start by gradually reducing farm subsidies since we left the EU and removing the indefensible inheritance tax exemption but needs to go much further and faster.
Of course the farmers and their protectionist Trumpian allies will complain, as they always do with anything that smacks of economic literacy.
UK farming is relatively efficient - compared with many European countries.
A major reason for inefficiency is the massive legal constraints on farming. See the discussion on US sourced chicken yesterday. We have as a society, mandated that farming land must be used in a constrained fashion.
It's about choices. You could get production prices down to the lowest in the world, if you let rip. But people like hedge rows. And limits on chemicals. And....
As to using agricultural land for other purposes (houses) - that is carefully and expressly forbidden. Hence the chap I knew, who could never get the police to come out for thefts and vandalism. But the authorities raced to his farm when he started putting the roof back on an old, abandoned building. For fear of he might be creating.... a house!
He better not make any spicy tweets or write any grumpy emails....otherwise the whole police force will descend on him given his previous behaviour.
It was the planning types plus the police. He gave everyone huge mugs of tea - that was his standard response to just about everything. He was one of those people who doesn't do anger.
Amid Trump tariff chaos, People’s Daily published an editorial today urging everyone to “Focus on Doing Your Own Things”—a phrase that sums up China’s core strategy. This thread breaks it down.
Bottom line is that they'd still probably prefer to deal with the US than go to an all out trade war - but they're certainly not going to roll over for Trump.
We're probably in that stupid situation where face is more important to both sides than the actual outcome. Which could turn out very badly for the world.
They can't. Trump wants to end manufacturing of everything in China. What he wants is to carve a very large chunk out of the Chinese economy. Xi & Co. know that would be existential for them - the current political settlement is that they provide prosperity and in return the oligarchy is tolerated.
Oh, I agree. Confrontation is more likely than a deal. But a deal would be possible if Trump were rational.
There comes a point when even low information voters who take their cue from social media will look at their own bank accounts and say "WTF???"
"Low information voters".....Is that the polite way of referring to Faragists?
It's an impolite way, but accurate.
Roger, I was interested in your views on that awful Labour ad featuring Kemi and, I think, Farage. Has it been pulled?
I don't know but I don't believe it was genuine. No Ad agency would produce something that couldn't work. Even the most junior trainee put down artist would have spotted the problem. It's possible they did it in-house and if so it'll teach them a useful lesson.
Interesting. To my mind it was the sort of ad a party puts out when they're scared and have nothing else.
If Len Deighton had written a novel about a Soviet asset who was elected President of the USA and subsequently crashed the West to allow a Soviet invasion of Western Europe, no one would have read such ridiculous nonsense.
Everyone would have stopped reading at the point where a former stock broker from Dulwich assisted by an old Etonian Foreign Secretary who dresses like a clown and attends KGB run parties in Italy, engineers Britain out of the World 's largest friction free trade organisation.
While Putin may want to rebuild the USSR even he has said he does not want to invade Western Europe
Oh well, that’s fine then: serial liar and megalomaniac autocrat says he has no intention of extending his control to Western Europe. Relax everyone!
Comments
I’m not convinced those tariffs have been priced in yet as there might be some thinking there will be some last minute agreement.
Last time there were people who could stop him doing bonkers things but this time we've already seen plenty of evidence that there's absolutely no filter.
If we built a beautiful wall around the US and cut it off, how much smaller would be the world economy be? Surely that must be the rough limit for this crash, albeit with a bit of overshoot.
I’m guessing this is one set of reparations the reparations loons on the left won’t be in favour of.
“The president stands as much chance of reindustrializing the U.S. as you do of getting your frozen laptop to work by smashing the motherboard with a ‘Minecraft’ hammer.”
https://x.com/nfergus/status/1909024860245811464
Everything is taking a pasting at the moment. Quality will come back.
..
@AllieRenison
How long can President Trump and co hang on to the “it’s just Wall Street not Main Street” narrative…
https://x.com/AllieRenison/status/1909151448014667960
Does it last the week?
Last week a bank, cannot remember which, had Nvidia as a hold at $103
Only a month or so before it was a buy at $153 !
Set trends or follow them
The CAC down 6%........
Although Vance is arguably more dangerous than Trump, he has none of the personal support
Truss was more dangerous than BoZo, but the Tories had no qualms about ditching her compared to him
I think if trump falls, the GOP try and claim a return to sanity which they won't let Vance mess up
But the question is, will it bend?"
(City of London, traditional)
·
1m
Trade halted at Pakistan stock exchange after index slumps more than 5%
Global sell-off, most reciprocal thing about these tariffs so far.
https://x.com/mariatad/status/1909157550404026554
I don't think this resolves itself quickly.
Boris did end EEA free movement but massively increased non EU immigration instead. Rishi actually started to reverse that when they tightened visa wage requirements for migrants and restricted the ability of dependents to be brought in
Trumps policy of setting everything on fire has zero chance of working.
The accusations were made against Mr Norris in his role as mayor
In recent years, the authority has handed over hundreds of thousands of pounds in taxpayers’ money to pay off former employees.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/07/labour-mayor-dan-norris-accused-bullying-harassment-staff/
And Labour still selected him.
But so far the whole regime are prepared to go along with it
Look at all the numpties who went on TV yesterday and committed to 'allowing the President to do his thing"
All Trump has to do is claim some (potentially imagined) victory and reverse himself and markets might bounce back?
- Dan Aykroyd in "Trading Places".
Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
The message is clear: stop trading with us cause you seem to have a comparative advantage.
https://x.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1908906240106758539
But they're still well above where they were in January.
People are very happy to make 30 or 40% in a year, let alone a couple of months.
And in this market, that would seem priceless.
Office cleaning firm charge up 9.8% from last year.
Amid Trump tariff chaos, People’s Daily published an editorial today urging everyone to “Focus on Doing Your Own Things”—a phrase that sums up China’s core strategy. This thread breaks it down.
It begins by acknowledging that U.S. tariffs do hurt, but “the sky can’t collapse.”
https://x.com/henrysgao/status/1909040507512316205
Bottom line is that they'd still probably prefer to deal with the US than go to an all out trade war - but they're certainly not going to roll over for Trump.
We're probably in that stupid situation where face is more important to both sides than the actual outcome. Which could turn out very badly for the world.
In fact we had to tell someone last week that the minimum wage increase was April 1st so go back and rerun the payments for last week before HMRC come call g
Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Free fall in European/ Asian markets… double digit falls in Germany, Hong Kong…
Some massive falls among industry/ banks.
As markets wake up to the reality that two key coping assumptions now appear wrong:
❌ tariffs were an opening salvo in deals
❌ Trump “put” on markets
https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1909146236227035482
Hitting our farming industry at a time we have lost grain supplies from Ukraine and Russia and have left the EU and are in a tariff war with the USA and saying we can just rely on food imports is absurd.
It is no wonder this government is one of the most unpopular since records began with policies like that
You could call it reparations.
A major reason for inefficiency is the massive legal constraints on farming. See the discussion on US sourced chicken yesterday. We have as a society, mandated that farming land must be used in a constrained fashion.
It's about choices. You could get production prices down to the lowest in the world, if you let rip. But people like hedge rows. And limits on chemicals. And....
As to using agricultural land for other purposes (houses) - that is carefully and expressly forbidden. Hence the chap I knew, who could never get the police to come out for thefts and vandalism. But the authorities raced to his farm when he started putting the roof back on an old, abandoned building. For fear of he might be creating.... a house!
Israel already has zero tariffs for US goods but was hit last week
It will be interesting to see what 'deal' if any emerges today
Acting German economy minister Robert Habeck:
“That is what I see, that Donald Trump will buckle under pressure, that he corrects his announcements under pressure, but the logical consequence is that he then also needs to feel the pressure,”.
https://x.com/JackRyanlives/status/1909084292719796383
Good example of how US #tariffs are increasing costs for US businesses and, as in this case, actually reducing investment in domestic production...
https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1909124198225654077
https://x.com/dnystedt/status/1909067829435047972
Alexander Fox @alexanderfox1.bsky.social
These days, every time I get a notification from BBC News, I withdraw £50 from a cash machine and immediately set fire to it, just to save time.
As for manufacturing jobs being created, there will be a few, but they will be despite of not because of tariffs. A lot of talk over the weekend about Nintendo after they have switched off pre-orders in the US for the Switch 2. Pricing for the US had already been set high and supposedly Nintendo have built some inventory there before the trade barriers came down.
But ongoing? Why sell the unit for $449 - already high - when it will quickly need to be $600. And the games many of which are digital download - you're now looking at $120 a game.
Which American goods do you expect consumers to buy instead?
I'm getting my usual oh-my-God-what-am-I-doing feeling now I've booked it...
Confrontation is more likely than a deal. But a deal would be possible if Trump were rational.
Good morning, everyone.