Why Farage might be next out – politicalbetting.com
Previously in this market I thought given the structure of Reform it was unlikely that Farage could be ousted but now the party is like the traditional parties it is rather more possible following today’s announcement.
The majority of Reform voters blame Russia entirely for the conflict. If Farage is ousted it won't be over him distancing himself from Trump but over being seen as too soft on immigration.
It will be an interesting journey for Reform to see what sort of a party it will become.
The mass membership will now be important in how and whether they distance themselves from Trump and/or Putin - we know what their supporters think, not necessarily their members.
And leadership rules and constitution will be important in determination whether it acts more like Labour or more like the Tories in terms of regicidal tendencies.
Thinking of Farage, party leaders cast in The Wind in the Willows:
Badenoch - Badger. Rather gruff, set in the ways, enjoys a fight. Starmer - Rat - bit of a lightweight, well meaning but not a thinker Davey - Mole - important but somehow not quite at the centre of events Farage - well, that leaves Mr Toad.
Nigel's in a pickle. He's fallen out of favour with Reform MAGA because Musk turned on him; now he's falling out of favour with Reform non-MAGA because of Ukraine. The old Nige magic will probably save him, but it's feeling a lot more fragile than it ever did.
Nigel's in a pickle. He's fallen out of favour with Reform MAGA because Musk turned on him; now he's falling out of favour with Reform non-MAGA because of Ukraine. The old Nige magic will probably save him, but it's feeling a lot more fragile than it ever did.
A weekend of frantic rimming will sort out the former. Honestly. Why doesn't he emigrate?
Thinking of Farage, party leaders cast in The Wind in the Willows:
Badenoch - Badger. Rather gruff, set in the ways, enjoys a fight. Starmer - Rat - bit of a lightweight, well meaning but not a thinker Davey - Mole - important but somehow not quite at the centre of events Farage - well, that leaves Mr Toad.
Kemi has a mandate from Tory MPs and members and doesn't have a rival angling for her job like Rayner and Streeting are for Starmer's and Tice and Lowe are for Farage's, except for Jenrick who already lost the Tory MPs vote and lost the Tory members vote to Kemi. She could yet outlast Starmer and Farage
Given his history, surely Farage is more likely to walk away than be ousted. It's what he's always done. I imagine there's a very good chance he'll do it again.
Is this the first time a US vice president has been relevant and in the thick of things, rather than just a placeholder?
Not really, if you believe the film Vice, concerning Dick Cheney. He was certainly driving a lot of US policy during the Bush years.
The difference with Vance is that he is articulate. I agree with very little that he says but his clarity in his recent speeches has made him the coherent voice of the Trump cavalcade who can at least provide a gloss or a rationale (of sorts) to what is going on.
I know there's a lot of really terrible stuff happening in the World right now but Eon productions have just ceded artistic control of the Bond franchise to the same people that brought us Rings of Power...
Is this the first time a US vice president has been relevant and in the thick of things, rather than just a placeholder?
No, Cheney and LBJ and HW Bush were all pretty influential, especially in foreign policy
Cheney has been proved right and in spades. He warned before the election that Trump was the gravest threat to the republic in its 250 year history and here we are.
"Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is considering firing generals and top military officers as soon as this week, according to two Defense officials and three Congressional sources. Most of those targeted are associated with former Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin."
Thinking of Farage, party leaders cast in The Wind in the Willows:
Badenoch - Badger. Rather gruff, set in the ways, enjoys a fight. Starmer - Rat - bit of a lightweight, well meaning but not a thinker Davey - Mole - important but somehow not quite at the centre of events Farage - well, that leaves Mr Toad.
Jabba the Hutt. - Boris Johnson obviously Jar Jar Binks - Liz Truss C3PO - Jeremy Hunt Nigel Farage - Sarlac Pit Kemi Badenoch- General Hux Keir Starmer - Bail Organa
Is this the first time a US vice president has been relevant and in the thick of things, rather than just a placeholder?
Not really, if you believe the film Vice, concerning Dick Cheney. He was certainly driving a lot of US policy during the Bush years.
The difference with Vance is that he is articulate. I agree with very little that he says but his clarity in his recent speeches has made him the coherent voice of the Trump cavalcade who can at least provide a gloss or a rationale (of sorts) to what is going on.
I don't get the impression Vance is driving policy. He is seeking to justify it. He does not have any actual power in the way that Cheney did.
Reuters now reporting US is refusing to co-sponsor UNSC resolution affirming Ukraines territorial integrity and condemning Russian aggression.
This is starting to feel quite serious.
Starting?
Many of us warned the stance would take before he was elected.
Trump told us the stance he would take before he was elected.
When people tell you who they are, believe them.
The Trump administration is now bringing the post–World War II era to an end. No one should be surprised: This was predictable, and indeed was predicted.
Nigel's in a pickle. He's fallen out of favour with Reform MAGA because Musk turned on him; now he's falling out of favour with Reform non-MAGA because of Ukraine. The old Nige magic will probably save him, but it's feeling a lot more fragile than it ever did.
Is this the first time a US vice president has been relevant and in the thick of things, rather than just a placeholder?
Not really, if you believe the film Vice, concerning Dick Cheney. He was certainly driving a lot of US policy during the Bush years.
The difference with Vance is that he is articulate. I agree with very little that he says but his clarity in his recent speeches has made him the coherent voice of the Trump cavalcade who can at least provide a gloss or a rationale (of sorts) to what is going on.
I don't get the impression Vance is driving policy. He is seeking to justify it. He does not have any actual power in the way that Cheney did.
I am honestly not sure. Trump is utterly chaotic and he is surrounded by imbeciles who have no idea which way is up. Anyone who sounds like they know what they are doing can have a lot of influence in that scenario.
Guardian reporting Reeves looking at cutting cash ISA limit to £4000 per year. Looks like the rest of the ISA limit open to stocks and shares.
That was in the telegraph yesterday - and I really don’t see the problem
How does it help? The risk-averse can still buy a money market fund. But it hurts those who don't want or aren't able to understand anything other than a very simple product, and pushes them back to taxed savings accounts.
"Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is considering firing generals and top military officers as soon as this week, according to two Defense officials and three Congressional sources. Most of those targeted are associated with former Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin."
NBC
Presumably people who might oppose going to war with Canada, or Denmark and Greenland, Ukraine, and the wider Europe.
In the US, "The Blob" is sometimes used to refer to the combination of the teacher's unions, education schools, and so forth, that block education reform. Those who use the term that way often favor charter schools, in an effort to get around The Blob: https://edreform.com/news-and-analysis/analysis/unions-and-establishment/what-it-is/
Do we have any US polling broken down by party and faction (ie MAGA, not MAGA for the GOP) on any questions around attitude to Putin / Zelensky, who started the war etc?
Can you imagine the world of stress Zelensky is under?
People get all excitable about PepGuardiola scratching his head because Man City are losing matches - but Jesus Christ you can imagine Zelensky just sitting there stunned thinking “I’ve got a war to fight to save my country against a murderous psychotic bastard and Do and Trump and his team are treating me like a criminal and at the same time trying to steal my country’s wealth”.
What a man.
Just think of when you’ve been stressed them more shot cones. And multiply it by millions.
In the US, "The Blob" is sometimes used to refer to the combination of the teacher's unions, education schools, and so forth, that block education reform. Those who use the term that way often favor charter schools, in an effort to get around The Blob: https://edreform.com/news-and-analysis/analysis/unions-and-establishment/what-it-is/
Can you imagine the world of stress Zelensky is under?
People get all excitable about PepGuardiola scratching his head because Man City are losing matches - but Jesus Christ you can imagine Zelensky just sitting there stunned thinking “I’ve got a war to fight to save my country against a murderous psychotic bastard and Do and Trump and his team are treating me like a criminal and at the same time trying to steal my country’s wealth”.
What a man.
Just think of when you’ve been stressed them more shot cones. And multiply it by millions.
“Fuck it. Assemble the first ten nuclear weapons.”
Reuters now reporting US is refusing to co-sponsor UNSC resolution affirming Ukraines territorial integrity and condemning Russian aggression.
This is starting to feel quite serious.
Starting?
Many of us warned the stance would take before he was elected.
Trump told us the stance he would take before he was elected.
When people tell you who they are, believe them.
The Trump administration is now bringing the post–World War II era to an end. No one should be surprised: This was predictable, and indeed was predicted.
Guardian reporting Reeves looking at cutting cash ISA limit to £4000 per year. Looks like the rest of the ISA limit open to stocks and shares.
That was in the telegraph yesterday - and I really don’t see the problem
It’s funny, wasn’t this the whole point of the British ISA that Reeves scrapped as soon as she took office, to stimulate investment?
In general I don’t have an issue with encouraging investment. The issue is that a lot of people aren’t particularly clued up about investing, or building a diversified portfolio, so maybe they just won’t bother or will expose their savings to too much short term risk/speculation. And then the banks won’t be able to encourage mortgage lending. So it all becomes a bit counterproductive.
I’m fairly agnostic, I just ponder whether there’s a law of unintended consequences that will come into play.
Reuters now reporting US is refusing to co-sponsor UNSC resolution affirming Ukraines territorial integrity and condemning Russian aggression.
This is starting to feel quite serious.
Starting?
Many of us warned the stance would take before he was elected.
Trump told us the stance he would take before he was elected.
When people tell you who they are, believe them.
The Trump administration is now bringing the post–World War II era to an end. No one should be surprised: This was predictable, and indeed was predicted.
Guardian reporting Reeves looking at cutting cash ISA limit to £4000 per year. Looks like the rest of the ISA limit open to stocks and shares.
That was in the telegraph yesterday - and I really don’t see the problem
It’s funny, wasn’t this the whole point of the British ISA that Reeves scrapped as soon as she took office, to stimulate investment?
In general I don’t have an issue with encouraging investment. The issue is that a lot of people aren’t particularly clued up about investing, or building a diversified portfolio, so maybe they just won’t bother or will expose their savings to too much short term risk/speculation. And then the banks won’t be able to encourage mortgage lending. So it all becomes a bit counterproductive.
I’m fairly agnostic, I just ponder whether there’s a law of unintended consequences that will come into play.
I can see a reason for restricting the tax benefits of risk adverse savings.
The problem with the British ISA is that I wouldn’t trust it - I want control of my investments
"Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is considering firing generals and top military officers as soon as this week, according to two Defense officials and three Congressional sources. Most of those targeted are associated with former Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin."
NBC
Presumably people who might oppose going to war with Canada, or Denmark and Greenland, Ukraine, and the wider Europe.
Yep. Certainly those suspected of harbouring concerns about a volte face so that USA are now aligned with Putin and embarking on world conquest.
Which is to same all of them bar a few whacko platoon level infantry who will suddenly find themselves as 4 star generals.
Many indeed most of us on PB have been predicting that Trump 2.0 would be an utter catastrophe. The few others should now apologize.
I know there's a lot of really terrible stuff happening in the World right now but Eon productions have just ceded artistic control of the Bond franchise to the same people that brought us Rings of Power...
Star Wars - fucked
Bond - fucked
Dr Who - apparently put in deep freeze for a decade....
I know there's a lot of really terrible stuff happening in the World right now but Eon productions have just ceded artistic control of the Bond franchise to the same people that brought us Rings of Power...
Star Wars - fucked
Bond - fucked
Dr Who - apparently put in deep freeze for a decade....
Do we have any US polling broken down by party and faction (ie MAGA, not MAGA for the GOP) on any questions around attitude to Putin / Zelensky, who started the war etc?
Reuters now reporting US is refusing to co-sponsor UNSC resolution affirming Ukraines territorial integrity and condemning Russian aggression.
This is starting to feel quite serious.
Starting?
Many of us warned the stance would take before he was elected.
Trump told us the stance he would take before he was elected.
When people tell you who they are, believe them.
The Trump administration is now bringing the post–World War II era to an end. No one should be surprised: This was predictable, and indeed was predicted.
If anyone can guess where this is they are an absolute fucking genius
You appear to be inside a shipping contained looking out into a warzone.
For no reason whatsoever except that it is the first place which came to mind when I saw the image, I'm going to go for: Turksih occupied North Cyprus.
I know there's a lot of really terrible stuff happening in the World right now but Eon productions have just ceded artistic control of the Bond franchise to the same people that brought us Rings of Power...
I know there's a lot of really terrible stuff happening in the World right now but Eon productions have just ceded artistic control of the Bond franchise to the same people that brought us Rings of Power...
Star Wars - fucked
Bond - fucked
Dr Who - apparently put in deep freeze for a decade....
I know there's a lot of really terrible stuff happening in the World right now but Eon productions have just ceded artistic control of the Bond franchise to the same people that brought us Rings of Power...
If anyone can guess where this is they are an absolute fucking genius
You appear to be inside a shipping contained looking out into a warzone.
For no reason whatsoever except that it is the first place which came to mind when I saw the image, I'm going to go for: Turksih occupied North Cyprus.
Interesting guess
But wrong (this is quite hard, but also genuinely interesting as an answer)
The Loser's honeymoon is over: "Trump’s approval ratings this week in a series of polls — including the Post-Ipsos poll and others from Reuters, Quinnipiac University, CNN and Gallup — has ranged from 44 to 47 percent. In all of them, more disapprove than approve of him.
That’s a reversal from the vast majority of previous polls, which showed Trump in net-positive territory.
And in the Post-Ipsos poll, significantly more Americans strongly disapprove of Trump (39 percent) than strongly approve of him (27 percent)."
(It wasn't much of a honeymoon to begin with. His approval ratings were higher than in his first term -- but lower than the approval ratings for every other recent president.)
"Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is considering firing generals and top military officers as soon as this week, according to two Defense officials and three Congressional sources. Most of those targeted are associated with former Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin."
NBC
Presumably people who might oppose going to war with Canada, or Denmark and Greenland, Ukraine, and the wider Europe.
Yep. Certainly those suspected of harbouring concerns about a volte face so that USA are now aligned with Putin and embarking on world conquest.
Which is to same all of them bar a few whacko platoon level infantry who will suddenly find themselves as 4 star generals.
Many indeed most of us on PB have been predicting that Trump 2.0 would be an utter catastrophe. The few others should now apologize.
My expectations of Trump 2.0 were low, but I admit, I did not expect him to be turning the USA into a Russian satellite state.
There are actually sufficient clues in that photo that an amazing person - perhaps Margaret Drabble or Niall Ferguson on a really good day - could get it
In other news my eldest daughter has just gone into labour. Being her, she is timing her contractions on an app and has a play list. Changed days.
I put together playlists for the birth of my first daughter. The whole adventure was tremendously well planned. We had hours of music on there, all of a suitable mood and non-shitness (this was back in the days before Spotify - it was all ipod driven). In the end, after six or seven hours of labour, an emergency caeserean was needed. Wife was whisked off to the operating theatre where, incongruously, surgical staff were preparing with the sound of Saturday Night on Key 103, Manchester in the background. My daughter ended up emerging into the world to the accompaniment of the Weather Girls' "It's Raining Men." Which wasn't exactly the start I would have given her, but doesn't appear to have held her back.
Daughters 2 and 3 were planned caesereans, and the need for hours of music for labouring to was not there. But I did enjoy slipping Morrissey's "Pregnant for the last time" into the playlist for the car on the way to the birth of my final child.
There are actually sufficient clues in that photo that an amazing person - perhaps Margaret Drabble or Niall Ferguson on a really good day - could get it
If anyone can guess where this is they are an absolute fucking genius
Gaza?
I reckon that's a good call.
Closer but no. Weirder than that
That's the urban hellscape of Camden. Just outside that door lie two Christians, stabbed to death for their beliefs. Sharia law is enforced by roving gangs of Imams, free speech is non-existent, and the whole area is a no go zone for the police, who have retreated to the Essex borders.
Comments
Not only is he much of an age with Farage, but there’s an obvious replacement who is clearly eyeing up the spot in his back to plunge her knife.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2025/02/19/285d6/1
This is starting to feel quite serious.
The mass membership will now be important in how and whether they distance themselves from Trump and/or Putin - we know what their supporters think, not necessarily their members.
And leadership rules and constitution will be important in determination whether it acts more like Labour or more like the Tories in terms of regicidal tendencies.
Badenoch - Badger. Rather gruff, set in the ways, enjoys a fight.
Starmer - Rat - bit of a lightweight, well meaning but not a thinker
Davey - Mole - important but somehow not quite at the centre of events
Farage - well, that leaves Mr Toad.
Many of us warned the stance would take before he was elected.
Trump told us the stance he would take before he was elected.
When people tell you who they are, believe them.
Honestly. Why doesn't he emigrate?
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/04/24/ukip-nigel-farage-toad-hall_n_5205277.html
Trumpers don't like being questioned.
I assume Zelenskyy has told him where to shove his agreement?
We are through the looking glass now. This is absolutely absurd.
The difference with Vance is that he is articulate. I agree with very little that he says but his clarity in his recent speeches has made him the coherent voice of the Trump cavalcade who can at least provide a gloss or a rationale (of sorts) to what is going on.
NBC
Jabba the Hutt. - Boris Johnson obviously
Jar Jar Binks - Liz Truss
C3PO - Jeremy Hunt
Nigel Farage - Sarlac Pit
Kemi Badenoch- General Hux
Keir Starmer - Bail Organa
The Trump administration is now bringing the post–World War II era to an end. No one should be surprised: This was predictable, and indeed was predicted.
Anne Applebaum
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43IM3vsXOts
https://edreform.com/news-and-analysis/analysis/unions-and-establishment/what-it-is/
(For the record: I have a mild liking for the original movie. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blob Let me repeat, mild. )
Do we have any US polling broken down by party and faction (ie MAGA, not MAGA for the GOP) on any questions around attitude to Putin / Zelensky, who started the war etc?
People get all excitable about PepGuardiola scratching his head because Man City are losing matches - but Jesus Christ you can imagine Zelensky just sitting there stunned thinking “I’ve got a war to fight to save my country against a murderous psychotic bastard and Do and Trump and his team are treating me like a criminal and at the same time trying to steal my country’s wealth”.
What a man.
Just think of when you’ve been stressed them more shot cones. And multiply it by millions.
BB-8, at best
(500 million is a reasonable approximation, militarily, if you subtract Hungary and Slovakia, and add the UK.)
In general I don’t have an issue with encouraging investment. The issue is that a lot of people aren’t particularly clued up about investing, or building a diversified portfolio, so maybe they just won’t bother or will expose their savings to too much short term risk/speculation. And then the banks won’t be able to encourage mortgage lending. So it all becomes a bit counterproductive.
I’m fairly agnostic, I just ponder whether there’s a law of unintended consequences that will come into play.
The problem with the British ISA is that I wouldn’t trust it - I want control of my investments
Which is to same all of them bar a few whacko platoon level infantry who will suddenly find themselves as 4 star generals.
Many indeed most of us on PB have been predicting that Trump 2.0 would be an utter catastrophe. The few others should now apologize.
Bond - fucked
Dr Who - apparently put in deep freeze for a decade....
If anyone can guess where this is they are an absolute fucking genius
For no reason whatsoever except that it is the first place which came to mind when I saw the image, I'm going to go for: Turksih occupied North Cyprus.
In further news (well, not really, we all know it) OFGEM are useless twits exhibit 746b:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3vwxyq33k0o
Chewbacca: "Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrgh!"
TSE-PO: "He made a fair move. Screaming about it can't help you!"
Han Sunil: "Let him have it. It's not wise to upset a Wookiee."
TSE-PO: "But, sir! Nobody worries about upsetting a Lawyer-Droid!"
Han Sunil: "That's because Lawyer-Droids aren't known for pulling people's arms out of their sockets when they lose!"
TSE-PO: "I see your point, sir!"
[to RCS-D2] "I suggest a new strategy, RCS: let the Wookiee win!"
But wrong (this is quite hard, but also genuinely interesting as an answer)
Clue: you can get excellent bacon here
That’s a reversal from the vast majority of previous polls, which showed Trump in net-positive territory.
And in the Post-Ipsos poll, significantly more Americans strongly disapprove of Trump (39 percent) than strongly approve of him (27 percent)."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/02/20/trump-policies-opposed-by-americans/
(It wasn't much of a honeymoon to begin with. His approval ratings were higher than in his first term -- but lower than the approval ratings for every other recent president.)
In the end, after six or seven hours of labour, an emergency caeserean was needed. Wife was whisked off to the operating theatre where, incongruously, surgical staff were preparing with the sound of Saturday Night on Key 103, Manchester in the background. My daughter ended up emerging into the world to the accompaniment of the Weather Girls' "It's Raining Men." Which wasn't exactly the start I would have given her, but doesn't appear to have held her back.
Daughters 2 and 3 were planned caesereans, and the need for hours of music for labouring to was not there. But I did enjoy slipping Morrissey's "Pregnant for the last time" into the playlist for the car on the way to the birth of my final child.