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I am now convinced Badenoch is safe in the short term at least – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,216
    RFK says only unhealthy kids die from infectious disease.

    And measles is "all fine". "We all got it - all eleven brothers and sisters and we just stayed home and watched TV"

    You voted for this shit America. Suck it up.



  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,173
    A Japanese-American hybrid auto company is doing fairly well these days. Toyota's largest vehicle plant is in Kentucky. And their ads in the US make a point of stressing their many American connections. For example, they sponsor the NFL.

    It's my guess that part of their success -- for now -- comes from emphasizing hybrids, rather than pure electrics.

    So I think it fair to call them a hybrid company -- for both reasons.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,117
    So who else are they selling out, then ?

    US officials said that the upcoming meeting with Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia is not meant to be interpreted as negotiations on Ukraine, according to State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce.
    https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1891581133810217361
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
  • Nigelb said:

    So who else are they selling out, then ?

    US officials said that the upcoming meeting with Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia is not meant to be interpreted as negotiations on Ukraine, according to State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce.
    https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1891581133810217361

    Sky said tonight that Trump wants a deal that gives him Gaza and Greenland !!!

    Make what you will of that !!!!
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,237
    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    On the positive side, our robot overlords will exterminate us all, thereby solving global warming.
    Deconstructing the solar system to build a computronium Dyson sphere will have other environmental consequences.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,091
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,946

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    Er. Hitler won power through an election.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,408

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    When I was born we were in a world war with Hitler's bombs falling out of the sky and as I said previously one narrowly missed our home killing 6 neighbours

    At the same time my wife was with her family in Scapa as the fishermen supplied provisions to the fleet, and her fathers fishing boat was fitted with a machine gun and a navy lieutenant allocated to the vessel

    These were very dark days with frightening uncertainty but it passed in time

    These dark days will pass as well, though as in the last war they may take quite a lot of time
    I often feel the darkness when talking to the young these days. Darker than I felt myself growing up - despite pretty much growing up in Trainspotting vs. Taggart. I sometimes also fear we are in for some dark years.

    Then one of them says something that fills me with wild optimism again. Quite often it's about music, dancing, friends, an art exhibition, a weird band they saw on youtube, ... just joy. Not the 24x7 news doom-cycle.

    I think I posted this the other day, but it really has given me an optimism shot in the arm, as it's rather beautiful.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNmxddPMU8Y
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,091
    Jonathan said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    Er. Hitler won power through an election.
    Oh jolly good. And can you point me to the enabling act, the Nuremberg laws, the concentration camps, the invasions of foreign countries? What’s your point?

    And to be on the money Hitlers electoral appeal was on the wane in 1933 and he was levered into power by Predudential decree.

    But ok, go on agreeing with all the other Trump is a Nazi, and American democracy is finished doomsayers if it makes you happy. I prefer to engage my brain a little.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,683
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    I've decided to become a Buddhist monk.
    What other options do I have?
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,452
    edited February 17

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    I have been occupied in stuff for a few days, and out of touch and a bit distant from the media and PB. Sorry if I am the millionth to have had this thought about Mr Trump.

    Trumps' downsides are obvious; and potentially deadly. I think he and his plutocratic oligarchy gangster friends are appalling.

    But he general awfulness does not arise from a situation in which he is by his character derogating from planetary perfection.

    Ask one question. There are lots of others but this will do. Trump has a plan for ending the Ukraine war. On 20th January, what was the plan of the EU/free Europe for ending it?

    There wasn't one. It was going to go on indefinitely.

    Ttrump's odd quality is that he will get other outfits to ask, and answer, questions they were very comfortable not answering on 20th January. This is not all bad.

    The status quo ante from Biden and Europe was to maintain pressure on Russia until it buckled. By and large this also had the support of Ukraine itself.
    If this is true and effective I will be delighted to see Europe continue to put it into effect. USA and Russia talks can't tell Ukraine or Europe waght to do.

    My own tentative view is that if that was the plan it wasn't working, and must be made to work if it can. But I think the real deal as on 20th January was a slowly losing attrition continuation without a further future in sight. I would be very pleased to be wrong.
    The plan was based on US support, which looks like it no longer exists.

    Now Trump goes into talks having already conceded that the U.S. is no longer willing to support Ukrainian defence efforts.

    This is the reality that emerged in the last 48 hours.

    As it happens, Trump has also conceded on bilateral talks (ie removing Ukraine and Europe from negotiations). Further, he has ruled out NATO support for Ukraine too.

    So it’s 3-0 to Russia right now.
    This pre-supposes that Europe accedes to any of this of course.

    What’s not clear to me right now is to what extent the defence of Ukraine is actually reliant on continuing US support. If the US pulls out of providing any direct or indirect support can the EU/UK & affiliated nations fill the gaps or are there elements which the US provides which are currently irreplaceable? Shell production in the EU has increased enormously for instance - quite possibly enough to (at a minimum) hold the current lines.

    Of course it’s possible that Trump isn’t just intent on isolationism but intends to fold-up Ukraine and deliver both it & eastern Europe (well, at least the Baltic states) as a package deal to Putin. In which case he will regard EU/UK support for Ukraine as some kind of treachery that justifies further sanction of some sort.

    I guess we’re going to find out.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,683

    RFK says only unhealthy kids die from infectious disease.

    And measles is "all fine". "We all got it - all eleven brothers and sisters and we just stayed home and watched TV"

    You voted for this shit America. Suck it up.



    How many pregnancies resulted?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,169
    edited February 17

    RFK says only unhealthy kids die from infectious disease.

    And measles is "all fine". "We all got it - all eleven brothers and sisters and we just stayed home and watched TV"

    You voted for this shit America. Suck it up.



    To an extent he is right. Measles depletes the bodies Vitamin A, so malnourished children are those that are most vulnerable to further losses. It has quite a high mortality and morbidity in Africa, and why vitamin A supplementation is a key part of treatment.

    There is some mortality even in the healthy of course.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,216
    Foxy said:

    RFK says only unhealthy kids die from infectious disease.

    And measles is "all fine". "We all got it - all eleven brothers and sisters and we just stayed home and watched TV"

    You voted for this shit America. Suck it up.



    To an extent he is right. Measles depletes the bodies Vitamin A, so malnourished children are those that are most vulnerable. It has quite a high mortality and morbidity in Africa, and why vitamin A supplementation is a key part of treatment.
    I reckon there's gonna be a hell of a lot more malnourished children in america once the federal government has been shut down.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,641
    Mainstream liberals are the meat in the sandwich between hyper-liberals and populists.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,452

    Nigelb said:

    So who else are they selling out, then ?

    US officials said that the upcoming meeting with Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia is not meant to be interpreted as negotiations on Ukraine, according to State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce.
    https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1891581133810217361

    Sky said tonight that Trump wants a deal that gives him Gaza and Greenland !!!

    Make what you will of that !!!!
    Do we think the Saudis will agree to support that or will they baulk? I can’t imagine they’re very keen on having a few million+ Gazans spilling out across the middle east with at least some of them hungry for revenge on those they perceive as having betrayed them.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,683
    Of all the issues in America, RFK is the one I'm most sanguine about.
    At least he is throwing wacky solutions at an actual real problem.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,946

    Jonathan said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    Er. Hitler won power through an election.
    Oh jolly good. And can you point me to the enabling act, the Nuremberg laws, the concentration camps, the invasions of foreign countries? What’s your point?

    And to be on the money Hitlers electoral appeal was on the wane in 1933 and he was levered into power by Predudential decree.

    But ok, go on agreeing with all the other Trump is a Nazi, and American democracy is finished doomsayers if it makes you happy. I prefer to engage my brain a little.
    You somewhat undermined your own point. You’re on PB, be prepared to be called out.

    Meanwhile, Trump is Trump and that is plenty bad enough. Bad times.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,169
    Phil said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    I have been occupied in stuff for a few days, and out of touch and a bit distant from the media and PB. Sorry if I am the millionth to have had this thought about Mr Trump.

    Trumps' downsides are obvious; and potentially deadly. I think he and his plutocratic oligarchy gangster friends are appalling.

    But he general awfulness does not arise from a situation in which he is by his character derogating from planetary perfection.

    Ask one question. There are lots of others but this will do. Trump has a plan for ending the Ukraine war. On 20th January, what was the plan of the EU/free Europe for ending it?

    There wasn't one. It was going to go on indefinitely.

    Ttrump's odd quality is that he will get other outfits to ask, and answer, questions they were very comfortable not answering on 20th January. This is not all bad.

    The status quo ante from Biden and Europe was to maintain pressure on Russia until it buckled. By and large this also had the support of Ukraine itself.
    If this is true and effective I will be delighted to see Europe continue to put it into effect. USA and Russia talks can't tell Ukraine or Europe waght to do.

    My own tentative view is that if that was the plan it wasn't working, and must be made to work if it can. But I think the real deal as on 20th January was a slowly losing attrition continuation without a further future in sight. I would be very pleased to be wrong.
    The plan was based on US support, which looks like it no longer exists.

    Now Trump goes into talks having already conceded that the U.S. is no longer willing to support Ukrainian defence efforts.

    This is the reality that emerged in the last 48 hours.

    As it happens, Trump has also conceded on bilateral talks (ie removing Ukraine and Europe from negotiations). Further, he has ruled out NATO support for Ukraine too.

    So it’s 3-0 to Russia right now.
    This pre-supposes that Europe accedes to any of this of course.

    What’s not entirely clear to me right now is to what extent the defence of Ukraine is actually reliant on continuing US support. If the US pulls out of providing any direct or indirect support can the EU/UK & affiliated nations fill the gaps or are there elements which the US provides which are currently irreplaceable? Shell production in the EU has increased enormously for instance - quite possibly enough to (at a minimum) hold the current lines.

    Of course it’s possible that Trump isn’t just intent on isolationism but intends to fold-up Ukraine and deliver both it & eastern Europe (well, at least the Baltic states) as a package deal to Putin. In which case he will regard EU/UK support for Ukraine as some kind of treachery that justifies further sanction of some sort.

    I guess we’re going to find out.
    I think that the thing that the Ukranians would miss most is the intelligence and surveillance. That isn't easy to replace.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,216
    Foxy said:

    RFK says only unhealthy kids die from infectious disease.

    And measles is "all fine". "We all got it - all eleven brothers and sisters and we just stayed home and watched TV"

    You voted for this shit America. Suck it up.



    To an extent he is right. Measles depletes the bodies Vitamin A, so malnourished children are those that are most vulnerable to further losses. It has quite a high mortality and morbidity in Africa, and why vitamin A supplementation is a key part of treatment.

    There is some mortality even in the healthy of course.
    Wiki: The measles vaccine is effective at preventing the disease, is exceptionally safe, and is often delivered in combination with other vaccines

    95% are needed.

    America aint gonna have that with RFK.

    It's shame as personally I agree with some of the stuff he says about food processing and crap diets and so on. Fast food shit. Fructose everywhere etc. But he is a unscientific crank basically.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,169
    dixiedean said:

    Of all the issues in America, RFK is the one I'm most sanguine about.
    At least he is throwing wacky solutions at an actual real problem.

    If he can solve Musk's Ketamine addiction the whole world will benefit.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    I do not believe that Donald Trump is a Nazi. I do think he's a wannabe autocrat who's bending the available levers of power at home towards that aim, and is possibly intent on gaining imperial colonies. Time will tell whether or not these rather extraordinary manoeuvres to acquire Greenland and the Gaza Strip, of all places, are negotiating ploys or something more serious. But if, for argument's sake, Keir Starmer goes to Washington to try to persuade Trump to provide logistical support and guarantees for any Ukrainian settlement, and he agrees on the condition that the Danes present him with Greenland as a present, would any of us be particularly surprised?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,081
    dixiedean said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    I've decided to become a Buddhist monk.
    What other options do I have?
    Dominican, Cistercian, Trappist, Chip.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,091
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    Er. Hitler won power through an election.
    Oh jolly good. And can you point me to the enabling act, the Nuremberg laws, the concentration camps, the invasions of foreign countries? What’s your point?

    And to be on the money Hitlers electoral appeal was on the wane in 1933 and he was levered into power by Predudential decree.

    But ok, go on agreeing with all the other Trump is a Nazi, and American democracy is finished doomsayers if it makes you happy. I prefer to engage my brain a little.
    You somewhat undermined your own point. You’re on PB, be prepared to be called out.

    Meanwhile, Trump is Trump and that is plenty bad enough. Bad times.
    Undermined how? By mention that Trump was elected in a democratic election? Saying that Hitler came to power by elections isn’t the slam dunk you think it is.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,161
    Andy_JS said:

    Mainstream liberals are the meat in the sandwich between hyper-liberals and populists.

    Vacuous nonsense.

    I don’t even know what a “hyper liberal” is and given everyone on here seems to have their own definition of what constitutes a liberal, a conservative, a green, a socialist and a populist it’s also subjective vacuous nonsense.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,481

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    I'm torn between agreeing with you (yes, Trump won the election), but noting that the power of the President is supposed to be constrained by the law.

    So far, there's not a lot of constraining going on.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,648
    pigeon said:

    I do not believe that Donald Trump is a Nazi.

    Trump is a mob boss.

    Elon is the actual Nazi.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Mainstream liberals are the meat in the sandwich between hyper-liberals and populists.

    Is it vegan???
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,914
    dixiedean said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    I've decided to become a Buddhist monk.
    What other options do I have?
    Well you don’t need to become a Buddhist.
    You could be a Trappist.
    I’ve always fancied the idea of being some kind of Chirch of England monk.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,091
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    I do not believe that Donald Trump is a Nazi. I do think he's a wannabe autocrat who's bending the available levers of power at home towards that aim, and is possibly intent on gaining imperial colonies. Time will tell whether or not these rather extraordinary manoeuvres to acquire Greenland and the Gaza Strip, of all places, are negotiating ploys or something more serious. But if, for argument's sake, Keir Starmer goes to Washington to try to persuade Trump to provide logistical support and guarantees for any Ukrainian settlement, and he agrees on the condition that the Danes present him with Greenland as a present, would any of us be particularly surprised?
    I’d be astonished. . The fate of Greenland is nothing to do with Starmer
  • Jonathan said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    Er. Hitler won power through an election.
    Oh jolly good. And can you point me to the enabling act, the Nuremberg laws, the concentration camps, the invasions of foreign countries? What’s your point?

    And to be on the money Hitlers electoral appeal was on the wane in 1933 and he was levered into power by Predudential decree.

    But ok, go on agreeing with all the other Trump is a Nazi, and American democracy is finished doomsayers if it makes you happy. I prefer to engage my brain a little.
    Americans used to fight AGAINST fascism.
  • Is this a parody ?

    These children ask for organic options for tea – or sushi on Deliveroo. They moan about the lack of sports and big class sizes. They get picked up by a nanny (always Filipino). When my children get invited over to playdates, they get lost in their massive houses. Their open-plan kitchens are the size of my entire flat.

    The other day, Liberty nearly got strangled in a boy’s five-storey house by a long piece of string that they use to dangle down the staircase with a felt basket to bring up pencils and notes. The parents, of course, were devastated when I sent them photos on WhatsApp of her lacerated neck – and they promptly sent their nanny off to buy me organic healing cream from a King’s Road pharmacy.

    Another mum does the majority of the school run in an Uber – which she admits “saves on the parking tickets”. I didn’t dream of telling her I could hardly afford my heating bill. These parents are happy-clappy with the huge savings on fees – especially if they have more than one child. Two children at nearby Notting Hill Prep costs £8,783 per term.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/state-school-oversubscribed-vat-private-fees-b2697702.html
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,091
    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    I'm torn between agreeing with you (yes, Trump won the election), but noting that the power of the President is supposed to be constrained by the law.

    So far, there's not a lot of constraining going on.
    Well that’s maybe up to the incredible system of checks and balances that people bang on about in the US system. Give it time.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Phil said:

    Nigelb said:

    So who else are they selling out, then ?

    US officials said that the upcoming meeting with Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia is not meant to be interpreted as negotiations on Ukraine, according to State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce.
    https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1891581133810217361

    Sky said tonight that Trump wants a deal that gives him Gaza and Greenland !!!

    Make what you will of that !!!!
    Do we think the Saudis will agree to support that or will they baulk? I can’t imagine they’re very keen on having a few million+ Gazans spilling out across the middle east with at least some of them hungry for revenge on those they perceive as having betrayed them.
    Several of the Arab states benefit considerably from American largesse. Losing that would deprive them of vital funds for propping up what are a range of autocratic regimes of varying degrees of heavy handedness. Selling out the Palestinians and agreeing to take the refugees, on the other hand, will make them all complicit in the betrayal and ethnic cleansing of Gaza, which will leave them burdened with very large numbers of very bitter Gazans, and possibly make their existing populations harder to control at the same time.

    Rock, meet hard place.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,914
    Scott_xP said:

    pigeon said:

    I do not believe that Donald Trump is a Nazi.

    Trump is a mob boss.

    Elon is the actual Nazi.
    Not formally, of course.
    I referred to him as “crypto-fascist” in my post last night.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,914

    Jonathan said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    Er. Hitler won power through an election.
    Oh jolly good. And can you point me to the enabling act, the Nuremberg laws, the concentration camps, the invasions of foreign countries? What’s your point?

    And to be on the money Hitlers electoral appeal was on the wane in 1933 and he was levered into power by Predudential decree.

    But ok, go on agreeing with all the other Trump is a Nazi, and American democracy is finished doomsayers if it makes you happy. I prefer to engage my brain a little.
    Americans used to fight AGAINST fascism.
    It was a close-run thing in 1941.
    I could be wrong but opinion polling was against getting involved in European affairs.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,955

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    I do not believe that Donald Trump is a Nazi. I do think he's a wannabe autocrat who's bending the available levers of power at home towards that aim, and is possibly intent on gaining imperial colonies. Time will tell whether or not these rather extraordinary manoeuvres to acquire Greenland and the Gaza Strip, of all places, are negotiating ploys or something more serious. But if, for argument's sake, Keir
    Starmer goes to Washington to try to persuade Trump to provide logistical support and guarantees for any Ukrainian settlement, and he agrees on the condition that the Danes present him with Greenland as a present, would any of us be particularly surprised?
    I’d be astonished. . The fate of Greenland is nothing to do with Starmer
    Doesn’t stop Trump demanding it as a condition of a deal
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,091

    Jonathan said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    Er. Hitler won power through an election.
    Oh jolly good. And can you point me to the enabling act, the Nuremberg laws, the concentration camps, the invasions of foreign countries? What’s your point?

    And to be on the money Hitlers electoral appeal was on the wane in 1933 and he was levered into power by Predudential decree.

    But ok, go on agreeing with all the other Trump is a Nazi, and American democracy is finished doomsayers if it makes you happy. I prefer to engage my brain a little.
    Americans used to fight AGAINST fascism.
    Eventually. Took ‘em a while to get going. And Hitler declaring war on them, too.
  • rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    I'm torn between agreeing with you (yes, Trump won the election), but noting that the power of the President is supposed to be constrained by the law.

    So far, there's not a lot of constraining going on.
    It takes time for the law to work through.

    The key point will be when SCOTUS rules against Trump.

    Will he accept it or ignore it.

    I can imagine many of the GOP will be furious if he ignores SCOTUS - there's no point having a Conservative majority on SCOTUS if its rulings can be ignored.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,091

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    I do not believe that Donald Trump is a Nazi. I do think he's a wannabe autocrat who's bending the available levers of power at home towards that aim, and is possibly intent on gaining imperial colonies. Time will tell whether or not these rather extraordinary manoeuvres to acquire Greenland and the Gaza Strip, of all places, are negotiating ploys or something more serious. But if, for argument's sake, Keir
    Starmer goes to Washington to try to persuade Trump to provide logistical support and guarantees for any Ukrainian settlement, and he agrees on the condition that the Danes present him with Greenland as a present, would any of us be particularly surprised?
    I’d be astonished. . The fate of Greenland is nothing to do with Starmer
    Doesn’t stop Trump demanding it as a condition of a deal
    Starmer isn’t dumb enough to offer something not within his power.
  • HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Starting to think Corbyn was quite hard done by 👀

    "I would rather be governed by someone who would imprison or kill me if I criticised him than be governed by Keir Starmer"

    More from Jeremy Clarkson as we get it.

    The right in the UK has lost its mind.

    Tax dodging farmers like Clarkson really do hate Starmer.
    Only Stalin hammered landowning farmers as much as Starmer has
    Oh diddums. 🎻
    Hang on, why are you in favour of anyone paying more death tax?

    More head scratchers from the world's worst libertarian.
    I am in favour of taxes being low and equally applied to all. Perfectly libertarian, that.

    Some being exempt from taxes they expect others to have to pay means that taxes have to be higher on others to make up the slack of those who aren't contributing.

    Hope that clears up the confusion for you.
    It certainly clears up any lingering doubts that you might be an actual libertarian. I think you'll find the passage in bold is fairly straightforward socialism.
    Not remotely and its quite clear you don't know what libertarian means if that's what you think.

    We all agree that taxes are necessary, sadly, because we all agree that certain things need paying for - like Defence.

    Taxes being low, but equally applied, is a perfectly reasonable liberal philosophy, not socialism.

    I would like to see tax rates significantly cut from where they are now, with exemptions eliminated so they are applied consistently. Socialists don't want to see taxes significantly cut.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,914

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    I do not believe that Donald Trump is a Nazi. I do think he's a wannabe autocrat who's bending the available levers of power at home towards that aim, and is possibly intent on gaining imperial colonies. Time will tell whether or not these rather extraordinary manoeuvres to acquire Greenland and the Gaza Strip, of all places, are negotiating ploys or something more serious. But if, for argument's sake, Keir
    Starmer goes to Washington to try to persuade Trump to provide logistical support and guarantees for any Ukrainian settlement, and he agrees on the condition that the Danes present him with Greenland as a present, would any of us be particularly surprised?
    I’d be astonished. . The fate of Greenland is nothing to do with Starmer
    Doesn’t stop Trump demanding it as a condition of a deal
    Starmer isn’t dumb enough to offer something not within his power.
    Nobody is suggesting that Starmer is going to offer up Greenland.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    I do not believe that Donald Trump is a Nazi. I do think he's a wannabe autocrat who's bending the available levers of power at home towards that aim, and is possibly intent on gaining imperial colonies. Time will tell whether or not these rather extraordinary manoeuvres to acquire Greenland and the Gaza Strip, of all places, are negotiating ploys or something more serious. But if, for argument's sake, Keir Starmer goes to Washington to try to persuade Trump to provide logistical support and guarantees for any Ukrainian settlement, and he agrees on the condition that the Danes present him with Greenland as a present, would any of us be particularly surprised?
    I’d be astonished. . The fate of Greenland is nothing to do with Starmer
    Notwithstanding the fact that little ought to astonish us about the President, if Starmer is approaching this very transactional leader on a matter pertaining to European security then why wouldn't he raise a quid pro quo like that, if it's what he has in mind? Our Prime Minister evidently couldn't deliver directly, but he could be used as a messenger to his peers.
  • Jonathan said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    Er. Hitler won power through an election.
    Oh jolly good. And can you point me to the enabling act, the Nuremberg laws, the concentration camps, the invasions of foreign countries? What’s your point?

    And to be on the money Hitlers electoral appeal was on the wane in 1933 and he was levered into power by Predudential decree.

    But ok, go on agreeing with all the other Trump is a Nazi, and American democracy is finished doomsayers if it makes you happy. I prefer to engage my brain a little.
    Americans used to fight AGAINST fascism.
    Eventually. Took ‘em a while to get going. And Hitler declaring war on them, too.
    Easy, company!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,117
    edited February 17

    Jonathan said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    Er. Hitler won power through an election.
    Oh jolly good. And can you point me to the enabling act, the Nuremberg laws, the concentration camps, the invasions of foreign countries? What’s your point?

    And to be on the money Hitlers electoral appeal was on the wane in 1933 and he was levered into power by Predudential decree.

    But ok, go on agreeing with all the other Trump is a Nazi, and American democracy is finished doomsayers if it makes you happy. I prefer to engage my brain a little.
    The equivalent of the enabling act is the movement towards governing entirely by executive order.
    If it is not halted, then that, along with the new fashioned doctrine of presidential immunity, could have much the same effect.

    We're not quite there yet, but many, before the election, were similarly dismissive of the likelihood of Trump doing what he's already now done.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,955

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    I do not believe that Donald Trump is a Nazi. I do think he's a wannabe autocrat who's bending the available levers of power at home towards that aim, and is possibly intent on gaining imperial colonies. Time will tell whether or not these rather extraordinary manoeuvres to acquire Greenland and the Gaza Strip, of all places, are negotiating ploys or something more serious. But if, for argument's sake, Keir
    Starmer goes to Washington to try to persuade Trump to provide logistical support and guarantees for any Ukrainian settlement, and he agrees on the condition that the Danes present him with Greenland as a present, would any of us be particularly surprised?
    I’d be astonished. . The fate of Greenland is nothing to do with Starmer
    Doesn’t stop Trump demanding it as a condition of a deal
    Starmer isn’t dumb enough to offer something not within his power.
    Where did anyone say Starmer would offer it?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,117
    edited February 17
    Foxy said:

    Phil said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    I have been occupied in stuff for a few days, and out of touch and a bit distant from the media and PB. Sorry if I am the millionth to have had this thought about Mr Trump.

    Trumps' downsides are obvious; and potentially deadly. I think he and his plutocratic oligarchy gangster friends are appalling.

    But he general awfulness does not arise from a situation in which he is by his character derogating from planetary perfection.

    Ask one question. There are lots of others but this will do. Trump has a plan for ending the Ukraine war. On 20th January, what was the plan of the EU/free Europe for ending it?

    There wasn't one. It was going to go on indefinitely.

    Ttrump's odd quality is that he will get other outfits to ask, and answer, questions they were very comfortable not answering on 20th January. This is not all bad.

    The status quo ante from Biden and Europe was to maintain pressure on Russia until it buckled. By and large this also had the support of Ukraine itself.
    If this is true and effective I will be delighted to see Europe continue to put it into effect. USA and Russia talks can't tell Ukraine or Europe waght to do.

    My own tentative view is that if that was the plan it wasn't working, and must be made to work if it can. But I think the real deal as on 20th January was a slowly losing attrition continuation without a further future in sight. I would be very pleased to be wrong.
    The plan was based on US support, which looks like it no longer exists.

    Now Trump goes into talks having already conceded that the U.S. is no longer willing to support Ukrainian defence efforts.

    This is the reality that emerged in the last 48 hours.

    As it happens, Trump has also conceded on bilateral talks (ie removing Ukraine and Europe from negotiations). Further, he has ruled out NATO support for Ukraine too.

    So it’s 3-0 to Russia right now.
    This pre-supposes that Europe accedes to any of this of course.

    What’s not entirely clear to me right now is to what extent the defence of Ukraine is actually reliant on continuing US support. If the US pulls out of providing any direct or indirect support can the EU/UK & affiliated nations fill the gaps or are there elements which the US provides which are currently irreplaceable? Shell production in the EU has increased enormously for instance - quite possibly enough to (at a minimum) hold the current lines.

    Of course it’s possible that Trump isn’t just intent on isolationism but intends to fold-up Ukraine and deliver both it & eastern Europe (well, at least the Baltic states) as a package deal to Putin. In which case he will regard EU/UK support for Ukraine as some kind of treachery that justifies further sanction of some sort.

    I guess we’re going to find out.
    I think that the thing that the Ukranians would miss most is the intelligence and surveillance. That isn't easy to replace.
    One thing Europe ought to develop, as a priority, is its own reusable space launch capacity.
    That's a military necessity which would also carry large economic benefit.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,161
    Contrary to the prevailing doom and gloom from some on here, and it may just be because it’s a glorious afternoon here in Hawke’s Bay with sunshine and the temperature approaching 30c, I’m not that pessimistic.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,117
    pigeon said:

    Phil said:

    Nigelb said:

    So who else are they selling out, then ?

    US officials said that the upcoming meeting with Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia is not meant to be interpreted as negotiations on Ukraine, according to State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce.
    https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1891581133810217361

    Sky said tonight that Trump wants a deal that gives him Gaza and Greenland !!!

    Make what you will of that !!!!
    Do we think the Saudis will agree to support that or will they baulk? I can’t imagine they’re very keen on having a few million+ Gazans spilling out across the middle east with at least some of them hungry for revenge on those they perceive as having betrayed them.
    Several of the Arab states benefit considerably from American largesse. Losing that would deprive them of vital funds for propping up what are a range of autocratic regimes of varying degrees of heavy handedness. Selling out the Palestinians and agreeing to take the refugees, on the other hand, will make them all complicit in the betrayal and ethnic cleansing of Gaza, which will leave them burdened with very large numbers of very bitter Gazans, and possibly make their existing populations harder to control at the same time.

    Rock, meet hard place.
    Jordan simply doesn't have the capacity.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,641
    edited February 17
    stodge said:

    Contrary to the prevailing doom and gloom from some on here, and it may just be because it’s a glorious afternoon here in Hawke’s Bay with sunshine and the temperature approaching 30c, I’m not that pessimistic.

    It was freezing cold today in central England with a horribly cold wind blowing. Enjoy the NZ weather. 😊
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,117

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    I'm torn between agreeing with you (yes, Trump won the election), but noting that the power of the President is supposed to be constrained by the law.

    So far, there's not a lot of constraining going on.
    It takes time for the law to work through.

    The key point will be when SCOTUS rules against Trump.

    Will he accept it or ignore it.

    I can imagine many of the GOP will be furious if he ignores SCOTUS - there's no point having a Conservative majority on SCOTUS if its rulings can be ignored.
    SCOTUS could just refuse, as it's done many times, to cobsider such cases.
  • Watching the videos, its not just the EV aspect, just the UI / UX on the control panels, the wide range of features e.g. lots have this zero gravity seat mode. In comparison, the legacy brands they look like old school Dell laptop running Window XP vs moden ipad with ipadOS.

    The uselessness of legacy car brands in software is astounding. Some of the UIs I've seen are so bad the people creating them clearly don't know even the most basic principles of interface design, and if any usability testing is being done the feedback clearly isn't reaching the right ears.

    VW realised it was incapable of all but the most basic software development and set up a new division specifically to rectify that. It burned though billions of euros and produced so little useful code that VW has had to invest $6bn in Rivian to get the use of their software platforms.

    EVs are all about the battery and the software, everything else is just a commodity. The Chinese have known that for years.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,587
    Late surge for Die Linke in the German YouGov poll

    https://x.com/wahlen_de/status/1891617069277364456

    Union: 27% (-2)
    AfD: 20% (-1)
    SPD: 17% (+1)
    GRÜNE: 12%
    LINKE: 9% (+3)
    BSW: 5%
    FDP: 4%
    Sonstige: 5% (-1)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,683
    edited February 17

    dixiedean said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    I've decided to become a Buddhist monk.
    What other options do I have?
    Well you don’t need to become a Buddhist.
    You could be a Trappist.
    I’ve always fancied the idea of being some kind of Chirch of England monk.
    Trappist? Shut up!
    No thank you.
    It's a lack of God thing.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    This time it will be Britain, France and Poland.

    The original allies. This time, I hope we don't let Poland down.

    Yup, there's no room for Germany in a European military alliance. They would rather appease Russia than deploy troop unfortunately which means they will drag their heels constantly.
    Let’s see who forms the new government post election, before we write them off.
    History is such that deploying German troops in Ukraine with the possibility of fighting Russians is very problematic.
    First four countries to recognise Ukrainian independence in February 1918?

    Germany
    Austria-Hungary
    Bulgaria
    Ottoman Turkey
    A lot has changed since then.
    2 of them dont even exist
    While Putin would have you believe Ukraine doesn't "exist" :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,613
    Andy_JS said:

    Did we cover this a couple of days ago?

    "Poll reveals a third of 16 and 17-year-olds would back Nigel Farage's Reform party in the next election"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14401817/Still-want-lower-voting-age-Sir-Keir-Mail-Sunday-poll-reveals-16-17-year-olds-Nigel-Farages-Reform-party-election.html

    Read the small print 'The poll was conducted by Find Out Now, who asked parents of 16- and 17-year-olds how their offspring were likely to vote'
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,434

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    When I was born we were in a world war with Hitler's bombs falling out of the sky and as I said previously one narrowly missed our home killing 6 neighbours

    At the same time my wife was with her family in Scapa as the fishermen supplied provisions to the fleet, and her fathers fishing boat was fitted with a machine gun and a navy lieutenant allocated to the vessel

    These were very dark days with frightening uncertainty but it passed in time

    These dark days will pass as well, though as in the last war they may take quite a lot of time
    Well yes, but history is not just cyclical in the short term, it is cyclical in longer terms, and there have been some centuries-long patches of badness in past history. The mores and politics since WWII were driven by the huge bulge the boomers created as they wore thru their lives, and now that they are beginning to leave the stage politics is beginning to snap back. The assumptions of the last eighty years - that there is a thing called "the West", that freedom is desirable and should be sought and protected, that the world is carved into nation states - are disappearing, and the new world will be different. And, I think, worse
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,914

    Late surge for Die Linke in the German YouGov poll

    https://x.com/wahlen_de/status/1891617069277364456

    Union: 27% (-2)
    AfD: 20% (-1)
    SPD: 17% (+1)
    GRÜNE: 12%
    LINKE: 9% (+3)
    BSW: 5%
    FDP: 4%
    Sonstige: 5% (-1)

    This all looks a bit margin-of-errory.

    I have been somewhat expecting Vance’s intervention to spark a revival for the SDP, analogous to what we’re seeing in Canada.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,683

    Late surge for Die Linke in the German YouGov poll

    https://x.com/wahlen_de/status/1891617069277364456

    Union: 27% (-2)
    AfD: 20% (-1)
    SPD: 17% (+1)
    GRÜNE: 12%
    LINKE: 9% (+3)
    BSW: 5%
    FDP: 4%
    Sonstige: 5% (-1)

    Makes you wonder what exactly it is about Donald Trump and Elon Musk that would drive people to vote for Stalin?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,434
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Did we cover this a couple of days ago?

    "Poll reveals a third of 16 and 17-year-olds would back Nigel Farage's Reform party in the next election"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14401817/Still-want-lower-voting-age-Sir-Keir-Mail-Sunday-poll-reveals-16-17-year-olds-Nigel-Farages-Reform-party-election.html

    Read the small print 'The poll was conducted by Find Out Now, who asked parents of 16- and 17-year-olds how their offspring were likely to vote'
    Damn, I'm glad you spotted that... :(
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,914

    Watching the videos, its not just the EV aspect, just the UI / UX on the control panels, the wide range of features e.g. lots have this zero gravity seat mode. In comparison, the legacy brands they look like old school Dell laptop running Window XP vs moden ipad with ipadOS.

    The uselessness of legacy car brands in software is astounding. Some of the UIs I've seen are so bad the people creating them clearly don't know even the most basic principles of interface design, and if any usability testing is being done the feedback clearly isn't reaching the right ears.

    VW realised it was incapable of all but the most basic software development and set up a new division specifically to rectify that. It burned though billions of euros and produced so little useful code that VW has had to invest $6bn in Rivian to get the use of their software platforms.

    EVs are all about the battery and the software, everything else is just a commodity. The Chinese have known that for years.
    VW should have partnered with Apple, or vice versa.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,481

    Is this a parody ?

    These children ask for organic options for tea – or sushi on Deliveroo. They moan about the lack of sports and big class sizes. They get picked up by a nanny (always Filipino). When my children get invited over to playdates, they get lost in their massive houses. Their open-plan kitchens are the size of my entire flat.

    The other day, Liberty nearly got strangled in a boy’s five-storey house by a long piece of string that they use to dangle down the staircase with a felt basket to bring up pencils and notes. The parents, of course, were devastated when I sent them photos on WhatsApp of her lacerated neck – and they promptly sent their nanny off to buy me organic healing cream from a King’s Road pharmacy.

    Another mum does the majority of the school run in an Uber – which she admits “saves on the parking tickets”. I didn’t dream of telling her I could hardly afford my heating bill. These parents are happy-clappy with the huge savings on fees – especially if they have more than one child. Two children at nearby Notting Hill Prep costs £8,783 per term.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/state-school-oversubscribed-vat-private-fees-b2697702.html

    The line The other day, Liberty nearly got strangled in a boy’s five-storey house by a long piece of string that they use to dangle down the staircase with a felt basket to bring up pencils and notes. The parents, of course, were devastated when I sent them photos on WhatsApp of her lacerated neck – and they promptly sent their nanny off to buy me organic healing cream from a King’s Road pharmacy. suggest parody.

    Firstly, who the hell calls their kid Liberty. Secondly, how do you lacerate a neck with string? (And if you did, you wouldn't get "healing cream".)

    That said... I totally believe the "Uber for the school run", not least because it's often insanely busy around schools and parking is non-existent. For those who don't want to take the bus (we took the bus), an Uber wouldn't be a ridiculous expense.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,216
    edited February 17
    Frank Luntz:

    NEW:
    @FrankLuntz
    says former Biden, Clinton voters who flipped to Trump in 2024 "love" how fast he's moving 🚨

    "They love the pace of change."


    ===

    They see nothing from Dems


    https://x.com/JasonJournoDC/status/1891593632928461211
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,481
    viewcode said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    When I was born we were in a world war with Hitler's bombs falling out of the sky and as I said previously one narrowly missed our home killing 6 neighbours

    At the same time my wife was with her family in Scapa as the fishermen supplied provisions to the fleet, and her fathers fishing boat was fitted with a machine gun and a navy lieutenant allocated to the vessel

    These were very dark days with frightening uncertainty but it passed in time

    These dark days will pass as well, though as in the last war they may take quite a lot of time
    Well yes, but history is not just cyclical in the short term, it is cyclical in longer terms, and there have been some centuries-long patches of badness in past history. The mores and politics since WWII were driven by the huge bulge the boomers created as they wore thru their lives, and now that they are beginning to leave the stage politics is beginning to snap back. The assumptions of the last eighty years - that there is a thing called "the West", that freedom is desirable and should be sought and protected, that the world is carved into nation states - are disappearing, and the new world will be different. And, I think, worse
    I think that's right: the generation of people who remembered how bad WW2 was has left the stage, and we will therefore need to learn the lessons all over again.

    I.e., politicians who are unable to do things is a hell of a lot better than politicians who are able to do things.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,895
    edited February 17

    Watching the videos, its not just the EV aspect, just the UI / UX on the control panels, the wide range of features e.g. lots have this zero gravity seat mode. In comparison, the legacy brands they look like old school Dell laptop running Window XP vs moden ipad with ipadOS.

    The uselessness of legacy car brands in software is astounding. Some of the UIs I've seen are so bad the people creating them clearly don't know even the most basic principles of interface design, and if any usability testing is being done the feedback clearly isn't reaching the right ears.

    VW realised it was incapable of all but the most basic software development and set up a new division specifically to rectify that. It burned though billions of euros and produced so little useful code that VW has had to invest $6bn in Rivian to get the use of their software platforms.

    EVs are all about the battery and the software, everything else is just a commodity. The Chinese have known that for years.
    VW should have partnered with Apple, or vice versa.
    Now they have their make their own super efficient chips that they stick in headphones etc, they could sell the chip and full car control OS, not a add-on Car play.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,481

    Frank Luntz:

    NEW:
    @FrankLuntz
    says former Biden, Clinton voters who flipped to Trump in 2024 "love" how fast he's moving 🚨

    "They love the pace of change.

    I get it: Sleepy Joe was sleepy, and the action of Trump is a really welcome change from the drift of Biden. That Musk is boasting of already having slashed hundreds of billions from the Federal budget (he hasn't) makes people think that they have an administration capable of tackling problems.

    The issue that Trump has, though, is that a lot of his policies - particularly the tariffs - will make people poorer. And they might notice that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,216
    "Trump 2.0's pace of change could be the new normal that voters expect from any future POTUS."

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz


    There aint gonna be a "future" POTUS for a very long time.

    Hardly anyone seems to get what has happened. Even pol experts and polling gurus. Elections are over in America. He told usa voters what he would do and he is doing it.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,946
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    When I was born we were in a world war with Hitler's bombs falling out of the sky and as I said previously one narrowly missed our home killing 6 neighbours

    At the same time my wife was with her family in Scapa as the fishermen supplied provisions to the fleet, and her fathers fishing boat was fitted with a machine gun and a navy lieutenant allocated to the vessel

    These were very dark days with frightening uncertainty but it passed in time

    These dark days will pass as well, though as in the last war they may take quite a lot of time
    Well yes, but history is not just cyclical in the short term, it is cyclical in longer terms, and there have been some centuries-long patches of badness in past history. The mores and politics since WWII were driven by the huge bulge the boomers created as they wore thru their lives, and now that they are beginning to leave the stage politics is beginning to snap back. The assumptions of the last eighty years - that there is a thing called "the West", that freedom is desirable and should be sought and protected, that the world is carved into nation states - are disappearing, and the new world will be different. And, I think, worse
    I think that's right: the generation of people who remembered how bad WW2 was has left the stage, and we will therefore need to learn the lessons all over again.

    I.e., politicians who are unable to do things is a hell of a lot better than politicians who are able to do things.
    The generation who actually fought or led us in the war built us institutions like NATO, the UN and the EU.

    The generation that read about the war in the comic books and movies gave us Brexit, populism and the current mess.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,481

    "Trump 2.0's pace of change could be the new normal that voters expect from any future POTUS."

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz


    There aint gonna be a "future" POTUS for a very long time.

    Hardly anyone seems to get what has happened. Even pol experts and polling gurus. Elections are over in America. He told usa voters what he would do and he is doing it.

    I don't think that's true.

    Now, sure, would Trump like to be an autocrat?

    Yes.

    But he's also an old man, and the Justices on the Supreme Court (even the ones he appointed) mostly don't want to be associated with the death of democracy in the United States. (Well, maybe Thomas and Alito would go for it.)

    Elections are also organized by the States. How do you stop California organizing a Presidential election?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,914

    "Trump 2.0's pace of change could be the new normal that voters expect from any future POTUS."

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz


    There aint gonna be a "future" POTUS for a very long time.

    Hardly anyone seems to get what has happened. Even pol experts and polling gurus. Elections are over in America. He told usa voters what he would do and he is doing it.

    It is a tad too early for that.
    Just a tad, mind.

    Anyway, analysts speculate that as with Erdogan, Orban etc, Trump is unlikely to suspend elections but merely tip the scales heavily in his own favour, or whoever he anoints for dynastic succession.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,793
    edited February 17

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Starting to think Corbyn was quite hard done by 👀

    "I would rather be governed by someone who would imprison or kill me if I criticised him than be governed by Keir Starmer"

    More from Jeremy Clarkson as we get it.

    The right in the UK has lost its mind.

    Tax dodging farmers like Clarkson really do hate Starmer.
    Only Stalin hammered landowning farmers as much as Starmer has
    Oh diddums. 🎻
    Hang on, why are you in favour of anyone paying more death tax?

    More head scratchers from the world's worst libertarian.
    I am in favour of taxes being low and equally applied to all. Perfectly libertarian, that.

    Some being exempt from taxes they expect others to have to pay means that taxes have to be higher on others to make up the slack of those who aren't contributing.

    Hope that clears up the confusion for you.
    It certainly clears up any lingering doubts that you might be an actual libertarian. I think you'll find the passage in bold is fairly straightforward socialism.
    Not remotely and its quite clear you don't know what libertarian means if that's what you think.

    We all agree that taxes are necessary, sadly, because we all agree that certain things need paying for - like Defence.

    Taxes being low, but equally applied, is a perfectly reasonable liberal philosophy, not socialism.

    I would like to see tax rates significantly cut from where they are now, with exemptions eliminated so they are applied consistently. Socialists don't want to see taxes significantly cut.
    Yes, and we currently have the highest taxes since World War II, which is driving many businesses, including farms, to the wall. Under those circumstances, one might hope that a libertarian supporter of the small state would be suggesting that the Government look to its own grossly distended expenditure to find the measly (perhaps non-existent) sum that ending this exemption will bring in, not mocking the individuals affected then coming out with some daft tripe about the importance of 'contributing' in justification.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,946
    @rcs1000 Would JD Vance have validated the 2020 election results on Jan 6?
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,237

    Watching the videos, its not just the EV aspect, just the UI / UX on the control panels, the wide range of features e.g. lots have this zero gravity seat mode. In comparison, the legacy brands they look like old school Dell laptop running Window XP vs moden ipad with ipadOS.

    The uselessness of legacy car brands in software is astounding. Some of the UIs I've seen are so bad the people creating them clearly don't know even the most basic principles of interface design, and if any usability testing is being done the feedback clearly isn't reaching the right ears.

    VW realised it was incapable of all but the most basic software development and set up a new division specifically to rectify that. It burned though billions of euros and produced so little useful code that VW has had to invest $6bn in Rivian to get the use of their software platforms.

    EVs are all about the battery and the software, everything else is just a commodity. The Chinese have known that for years.
    VW should have partnered with Apple, or vice versa.
    Now they have their make their own super efficient chips that they stick in headphones etc, they could sell the chip and full car control OS, not a add-on Car play.
    At one point they were trying to do that (as part of trying to salvage something from the failed car project) - but no-one appeared to be interested.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,216
    Jonathan said:

    @rcs1000 Would JD Vance have validated the 2020 election results on Jan 6?

    QTWTAIN
  • Foss said:

    Watching the videos, its not just the EV aspect, just the UI / UX on the control panels, the wide range of features e.g. lots have this zero gravity seat mode. In comparison, the legacy brands they look like old school Dell laptop running Window XP vs moden ipad with ipadOS.

    The uselessness of legacy car brands in software is astounding. Some of the UIs I've seen are so bad the people creating them clearly don't know even the most basic principles of interface design, and if any usability testing is being done the feedback clearly isn't reaching the right ears.

    VW realised it was incapable of all but the most basic software development and set up a new division specifically to rectify that. It burned though billions of euros and produced so little useful code that VW has had to invest $6bn in Rivian to get the use of their software platforms.

    EVs are all about the battery and the software, everything else is just a commodity. The Chinese have known that for years.
    VW should have partnered with Apple, or vice versa.
    Now they have their make their own super efficient chips that they stick in headphones etc, they could sell the chip and full car control OS, not a add-on Car play.
    At one point they were trying to do that (as part of trying to salvage something from the failed car project) - but no-one appeared to be interested.
    Now VW have just massively overpaid for access to Rivian OS.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,587

    "Trump 2.0's pace of change could be the new normal that voters expect from any future POTUS."

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz


    There aint gonna be a "future" POTUS for a very long time.

    Hardly anyone seems to get what has happened. Even pol experts and polling gurus. Elections are over in America. He told usa voters what he would do and he is doing it.

    If the mid-terms happen normally, will you doubt your thesis?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,216
    rcs1000 said:

    "Trump 2.0's pace of change could be the new normal that voters expect from any future POTUS."

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz


    There aint gonna be a "future" POTUS for a very long time.

    Hardly anyone seems to get what has happened. Even pol experts and polling gurus. Elections are over in America. He told usa voters what he would do and he is doing it.

    I don't think that's true.

    Now, sure, would Trump like to be an autocrat?

    Yes.

    But he's also an old man, and the Justices on the Supreme Court (even the ones he appointed) mostly don't want to be associated with the death of democracy in the United States. (Well, maybe Thomas and Alito would go for it.)

    Elections are also organized by the States. How do you stop California organizing a Presidential election?
    He'll declare a national emergency and suspended the constitution.

    Then, he will fall back on his old favourite - what are you actually going to do about it?

    He does not recognize the law. He does not accept the constitution. There is no state but himself.

    He has told american voters over and over that this is what he is and will do. Soon they will understand.

    The founders tried to avoid this with checks and balances and they did a pretty good job but they did not expect the level of cowardice and forelock tugging that the GOP, Supreme Court etc will do.

    Hope I am wrong.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,613

    Late surge for Die Linke in the German YouGov poll

    https://x.com/wahlen_de/status/1891617069277364456

    Union: 27% (-2)
    AfD: 20% (-1)
    SPD: 17% (+1)
    GRÜNE: 12%
    LINKE: 9% (+3)
    BSW: 5%
    FDP: 4%
    Sonstige: 5% (-1)

    Looks even more likely a Union and SPD grand coalition again then
  • Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The dogs bark, but the caravan has moved on. Sadly.

    Europe cannot rely on this happening in four years.

    As it almost certainly wont now unless there has been civil war.


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul
    ·
    3h
    Europeans, don't give up on America yet! Trump does not represent us all. Most believe, like I do, that a strong NATO serves US security interests We need to limit the damage over the next 4 years so that we can rebuild our transatlantic partnership again in the future.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891552689407885443

    It won't matter if it does. The concept of the United States as "leader of the free world" is dead and buried. Even if there's much of a free world left for it to lead in four years' time.
    I love comments like this. What is it that you expect to happen to the free world in the next four years? And show your working.
    I'm giving in to pessimism, and why not? The entire state of the world gives no cause for anything else. Four years is ample time for Ukraine to be dismembered, the Baltics to fall to the next invasion like a pack of cards, Germany to discover the joys of neo-Nazism and fuck knows what else, and that's just in our little corner of this dying planet. The country is rotting, we are beset by insoluble problems at home and surrounded by extreme danger of several different kinds. I don't see any prospect of our circumstances improving, just getting worse and worse and worse. Perhaps you'd like to show your working for how everything *doesn't* go to hell in a handcart?
    Maybe you just need a few days of springlike weather?

    Most peoples lives in 2025 are better than the lives of any other people in history. Europe is already coming together to face a new paradigm. Russia has fecked itself trying to achieve a three day victory that’s inexplicably taken over two years already. The Russian army is not the threat it used to seem, even in 2022. Trump/America is not the free world. Step back from doom scrolling and get some fresh air.
    Perhaps. It does feel like it's been cold for a thousand fucking years. I'm so sick of it.

    Unfortunately I think we passed peak civilization about twenty years ago. And I'd be a lot more sanguine about the level of the threat posed by Russia if they weren't such a deeply evil people with an inexhaustible supply of rape-murdering barbarians available to throw at us, whereas the British armed forces consist of not much more than a couple of rusty boats and a marching band. And we are one of the stronger European states. It's also come to something when we find ourselves having to survive in a world being carved up between three despotisms and China is beginning to look the most appealing.
    I think that overstates the case in America. Trump won an election fair and square. And there will be new elections in less than four years time. And let’s imagine he finds a way to be eligible to stand again. The US public can still choose someone else.
    Too many people who hate Trump, hate Musk (not without reason, mind) have bought into the whole ‘they’re Nazis’ thing, and have rather lost their critical faculties. I’d suggest reacquainting themselves with some of the better studies of Nazi Germany to regain a sense of perspective.
    I'm torn between agreeing with you (yes, Trump won the election), but noting that the power of the President is supposed to be constrained by the law.

    So far, there's not a lot of constraining going on.
    It takes time for the law to work through.

    The key point will be when SCOTUS rules against Trump.

    Will he accept it or ignore it.

    I can imagine many of the GOP will be furious if he ignores SCOTUS - there's no point having a Conservative majority on SCOTUS if its rulings can be ignored.
    SCOTUS could just refuse, as it's done many times, to cobsider such cases.
    Then the rulings against Trump in the lower courts would stand.

    Trump is going to need SCOTUS to overturn lower court orders from Dem areas.

    Just as Biden needed SCOTUS to overturn rulings from that MAGA judge in Texas.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,613

    Frank Luntz:

    NEW:
    @FrankLuntz
    says former Biden, Clinton voters who flipped to Trump in 2024 "love" how fast he's moving 🚨

    "They love the pace of change."


    ===

    They see nothing from Dems


    https://x.com/JasonJournoDC/status/1891593632928461211

    Until they see the grocery bill from his tariffs
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,173
    "Elections are over in America."

    There will be elections for governor this fall in New Jersey:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Murphy

    And Virginia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenn_Youngkin

    As of now, I think it likely that the Democratic incumbent will win in New Jersey, and the Republican incumbent will win in Viginia. (I don't know enough about the legislative races in either state to speculate on them.)

    There will be elections for all the seats in the House of Representatives in November of 2026, and for one-third of the senators then, along with many elections for governors, mayors, and legislatures.

    (Currently, the Loser's popularity is lower than that of any recent president, except for himself, at this time in their term.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,641
    HYUFD said:

    Frank Luntz:

    NEW:
    @FrankLuntz
    says former Biden, Clinton voters who flipped to Trump in 2024 "love" how fast he's moving 🚨

    "They love the pace of change."


    ===

    They see nothing from Dems


    https://x.com/JasonJournoDC/status/1891593632928461211

    Until they see the grocery bill from his tariffs
    Grocery bills were already ridiculously high before so they probably won't care, even if they go higher. People were already annoyed by that problem a lot earlier.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,641
    HYUFD said:

    Late surge for Die Linke in the German YouGov poll

    https://x.com/wahlen_de/status/1891617069277364456

    Union: 27% (-2)
    AfD: 20% (-1)
    SPD: 17% (+1)
    GRÜNE: 12%
    LINKE: 9% (+3)
    BSW: 5%
    FDP: 4%
    Sonstige: 5% (-1)

    Looks even more likely a Union and SPD grand coalition again then
    It would probably have to include the Greens as well because Linke getting more seats means a majority for just those two parties is less likely.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,641
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Did we cover this a couple of days ago?

    "Poll reveals a third of 16 and 17-year-olds would back Nigel Farage's Reform party in the next election"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14401817/Still-want-lower-voting-age-Sir-Keir-Mail-Sunday-poll-reveals-16-17-year-olds-Nigel-Farages-Reform-party-election.html

    Read the small print 'The poll was conducted by Find Out Now, who asked parents of 16- and 17-year-olds how their offspring were likely to vote'
    They probably have a good idea how they might vote.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Is this a parody ?

    These children ask for organic options for tea – or sushi on Deliveroo. They moan about the lack of sports and big class sizes. They get picked up by a nanny (always Filipino). When my children get invited over to playdates, they get lost in their massive houses. Their open-plan kitchens are the size of my entire flat.

    The other day, Liberty nearly got strangled in a boy’s five-storey house by a long piece of string that they use to dangle down the staircase with a felt basket to bring up pencils and notes. The parents, of course, were devastated when I sent them photos on WhatsApp of her lacerated neck – and they promptly sent their nanny off to buy me organic healing cream from a King’s Road pharmacy.

    Another mum does the majority of the school run in an Uber – which she admits “saves on the parking tickets”. I didn’t dream of telling her I could hardly afford my heating bill. These parents are happy-clappy with the huge savings on fees – especially if they have more than one child. Two children at nearby Notting Hill Prep costs £8,783 per term.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/state-school-oversubscribed-vat-private-fees-b2697702.html

    The line The other day, Liberty nearly got strangled in a boy’s five-storey house by a long piece of string that they use to dangle down the staircase with a felt basket to bring up pencils and notes. The parents, of course, were devastated when I sent them photos on WhatsApp of her lacerated neck – and they promptly sent their nanny off to buy me organic healing cream from a King’s Road pharmacy. suggest parody.

    Firstly, who the hell calls their kid Liberty. Secondly, how do you lacerate a neck with string? (And if you did, you wouldn't get "healing cream".)

    That said... I totally believe the "Uber for the school run", not least because it's often insanely busy around schools and parking is non-existent. For those who don't want to take the bus (we took the bus), an Uber wouldn't be a ridiculous expense.
    This is the person who named her daughter Liberty:

    Charlotte Cripps is a Senior Culture Writer at The Independent who specialises in profile interviews. Her highly amusing and irreverant weekly column about IVF and being a single mother ran in The Independent from 2019 to 2021. She acted as arts editor/commissioning editor for The Independent's culture desk from 2017 to 2018. She began her career writing for Tatler and Harpers & Queen, before joining The Independent as a writer.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/author/charlotte-cripps

    I suspect the article is based on truth but exaggerated.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Is this a parody ?

    These children ask for organic options for tea – or sushi on Deliveroo. They moan about the lack of sports and big class sizes. They get picked up by a nanny (always Filipino). When my children get invited over to playdates, they get lost in their massive houses. Their open-plan kitchens are the size of my entire flat.

    The other day, Liberty nearly got strangled in a boy’s five-storey house by a long piece of string that they use to dangle down the staircase with a felt basket to bring up pencils and notes. The parents, of course, were devastated when I sent them photos on WhatsApp of her lacerated neck – and they promptly sent their nanny off to buy me organic healing cream from a King’s Road pharmacy.

    Another mum does the majority of the school run in an Uber – which she admits “saves on the parking tickets”. I didn’t dream of telling her I could hardly afford my heating bill. These parents are happy-clappy with the huge savings on fees – especially if they have more than one child. Two children at nearby Notting Hill Prep costs £8,783 per term.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/state-school-oversubscribed-vat-private-fees-b2697702.html

    The line The other day, Liberty nearly got strangled in a boy’s five-storey house by a long piece of string that they use to dangle down the staircase with a felt basket to bring up pencils and notes. The parents, of course, were devastated when I sent them photos on WhatsApp of her lacerated neck – and they promptly sent their nanny off to buy me organic healing cream from a King’s Road pharmacy. suggest parody.

    Firstly, who the hell calls their kid Liberty. Secondly, how do you lacerate a neck with string? (And if you did, you wouldn't get "healing cream".)

    That said... I totally believe the "Uber for the school run", not least because it's often insanely busy around schools and parking is non-existent. For those who don't want to take the bus (we took the bus), an Uber wouldn't be a ridiculous expense.
    This is the person who named her daughter Liberty:

    Charlotte Cripps is a Senior Culture Writer at The Independent who specialises in profile interviews. Her highly amusing and irreverant weekly column about IVF and being a single mother ran in The Independent from 2019 to 2021. She acted as arts editor/commissioning editor for The Independent's culture desk from 2017 to 2018. She began her career writing for Tatler and Harpers & Queen, before joining The Independent as a writer.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/author/charlotte-cripps

    I suspect the article is based on truth but exaggerated.
    Liberty Cripps, I am sure she don't take any incoming for her name...thanks mum.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,173
    Correction: Here's how the last paragraphs of my recent comment should read:

    As of now, I think it likely that the Democratic incumbent will win in New Jersey, and that a Republican may win in Viginia. (I don't know enough about the legislative races in either state to speculate on them.)

    There will be elections for all the seats in the House of Representatives in November of 2026, and for one-third of the senators then, along with many elections for governors, mayors, and legislatures.

    (Currently, the Loser's popularity is lower than that of any recent president, except for himself, at this time in their term.)

    (Note: I had forgotten that Virginia governors can not succeed themselves, which I have corrected. With that in mind, I would rate the contest even, for now.)
  • HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Starting to think Corbyn was quite hard done by 👀

    "I would rather be governed by someone who would imprison or kill me if I criticised him than be governed by Keir Starmer"

    More from Jeremy Clarkson as we get it.

    The right in the UK has lost its mind.

    Tax dodging farmers like Clarkson really do hate Starmer.
    Only Stalin hammered landowning farmers as much as Starmer has
    Oh diddums. 🎻
    Hang on, why are you in favour of anyone paying more death tax?

    More head scratchers from the world's worst libertarian.
    I am in favour of taxes being low and equally applied to all. Perfectly libertarian, that.

    Some being exempt from taxes they expect others to have to pay means that taxes have to be higher on others to make up the slack of those who aren't contributing.

    Hope that clears up the confusion for you.
    It certainly clears up any lingering doubts that you might be an actual libertarian. I think you'll find the passage in bold is fairly straightforward socialism.
    Not remotely and its quite clear you don't know what libertarian means if that's what you think.

    We all agree that taxes are necessary, sadly, because we all agree that certain things need paying for - like Defence.

    Taxes being low, but equally applied, is a perfectly reasonable liberal philosophy, not socialism.

    I would like to see tax rates significantly cut from where they are now, with exemptions eliminated so they are applied consistently. Socialists don't want to see taxes significantly cut.
    Yes, and we currently have the highest taxes since World War II, which is driving many businesses, including farms, to the wall. Under those circumstances, one might hope that a libertarian supporter of the small state would be suggesting that the Government look to its own grossly distended expenditure to find the measly (perhaps non-existent) sum that ending this exemption will bring in, not mocking the individuals affected then coming out with some daft tripe about the importance of 'contributing' in justification.
    I have made many, many proposed slashes in government expenditure - backed by abolishing state control over things the state currently does that I suggest it should not do, returning those things to the citizens to control their own lives and their own properties.

    There is no reason whatsoever that can't be combined with tax cuts and the elimination of tax cliffs and tax exemptions, with all contributing the same rate no matter how they earn their income.

    I've been quite consistent on that. I don't give a shit how you want to earn your income, that's on you, and your free choice. The state should not be prejudicial on how people earn their incomes either. Taxes should be levied consistently, at a low but consistent rate, rather than the state picking winners and losers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,481
    Jonathan said:

    @rcs1000 Would JD Vance have validated the 2020 election results on Jan 6?

    Yep: that's the risk isn't it.

    But I hope we're not there.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,216

    rcs1000 said:

    Is this a parody ?

    These children ask for organic options for tea – or sushi on Deliveroo. They moan about the lack of sports and big class sizes. They get picked up by a nanny (always Filipino). When my children get invited over to playdates, they get lost in their massive houses. Their open-plan kitchens are the size of my entire flat.

    The other day, Liberty nearly got strangled in a boy’s five-storey house by a long piece of string that they use to dangle down the staircase with a felt basket to bring up pencils and notes. The parents, of course, were devastated when I sent them photos on WhatsApp of her lacerated neck – and they promptly sent their nanny off to buy me organic healing cream from a King’s Road pharmacy.

    Another mum does the majority of the school run in an Uber – which she admits “saves on the parking tickets”. I didn’t dream of telling her I could hardly afford my heating bill. These parents are happy-clappy with the huge savings on fees – especially if they have more than one child. Two children at nearby Notting Hill Prep costs £8,783 per term.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/state-school-oversubscribed-vat-private-fees-b2697702.html

    The line The other day, Liberty nearly got strangled in a boy’s five-storey house by a long piece of string that they use to dangle down the staircase with a felt basket to bring up pencils and notes. The parents, of course, were devastated when I sent them photos on WhatsApp of her lacerated neck – and they promptly sent their nanny off to buy me organic healing cream from a King’s Road pharmacy. suggest parody.

    Firstly, who the hell calls their kid Liberty. Secondly, how do you lacerate a neck with string? (And if you did, you wouldn't get "healing cream".)

    That said... I totally believe the "Uber for the school run", not least because it's often insanely busy around schools and parking is non-existent. For those who don't want to take the bus (we took the bus), an Uber wouldn't be a ridiculous expense.
    This is the person who named her daughter Liberty:

    Charlotte Cripps is a Senior Culture Writer at The Independent who specialises in profile interviews. Her highly amusing and irreverant weekly column about IVF and being a single mother ran in The Independent from 2019 to 2021. She acted as arts editor/commissioning editor for The Independent's culture desk from 2017 to 2018. She began her career writing for Tatler and Harpers & Queen, before joining The Independent as a writer.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/author/charlotte-cripps

    I suspect the article is based on truth but exaggerated.
    Liberty Cripps, I am sure she don't take any incoming for her name...thanks mum.
    I think the article is humour.

    Very much Motherland territory.

    And, as an aside, the fact that the children in posho family are using a "long piece of string that they use to dangle down the staircase with a felt basket to bring up pencils and notes" shows they need to sack their feckless and work shy Filipino nanny and find a porter laid off from Smithfields closure.
  • Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Eabhal said:

    Starting to think Corbyn was quite hard done by 👀

    "I would rather be governed by someone who would imprison or kill me if I criticised him than be governed by Keir Starmer"

    More from Jeremy Clarkson as we get it.

    The right in the UK has lost its mind.

    Tax dodging farmers like Clarkson really do hate Starmer.
    I think all farmers hate Starmer and Rachel From Accounts, along with most people who run businesses. The reason why privately held businesses (including farms) were inheritance tax free was because it enabled the next generation to continue the business as a viable entity, whereas if some c*ntish government made up of fuckwits who don't understand business insist on taxing the asset value causing it to become unviable.

    If the next generation decide not to do the hard work or take any further risks and realise the asset value and sell up then they pay tax in the form of CGT.

    There we are, thick people, I have explained why the IHT for family farms and private businesses is iniquitous and will damage the country generally.
    The problem is that farm land is now an IHT dodgy as demonstrated by Dyson and to a less extent Mr Clarkson who bought the land first and then discovered a decent idea for a TV series second.

    So the ideal solution is to work out how to solve things in a way that allows the farm to continue while the IHT dodgers get captured - problem is HMRC isn’t clever enough to do that so they implemented a different solution.
    I completely agree. Farms have been used as tax havens by some, but the percentage is tiny. HMRC could easily put in rules to distinguish between proper working farms and those that have been used as tax havens, but the current government would rather hammer farmers because they don't generally vote Labour.

    I would prefer them to tax people with massive public sector pension pots, or better still silver-spooned millionaire city lawyers and accountants that hide behind dodgy LLP structures where they pretend to be "partners" and "self employed" where most of them couldn't start a company for themselves if their featherbedded life depended on it.
    Starmer won’t tax public sector Labour voters or his fellow lawyers more nor will Rachel from accounts tax her own.

    Tory and Reform voting farmers and small business owners and pensioners are fair game though
    Poor needy pensioners. What with their incomes continually being raided to fund inflation-busting handouts to the under-65s, I don't know how they survive.

    Oh. Wait...
    Pensioners on just state pension and incomes less than minimum wage have had their winter fuel allowance cut by this awful government
    Good. It was an awful policy introduced by Brown. Good riddance.

    Cold weather payments still exist for those who need them and are eligible for them.
    A tiny amount not consistent while more low income pensioners succumb to pneumonia also adding to pressure on NHS
    Actually infants are more likely to succumb to pneumonia than pensioners of any age.

    So if you were to do the policy based on need, then it universally being granted to all infants would make more sense.

    But infants don't vote.
    Er, that pneumonia thing changed many years back. Much smaller infant death rates (if that's what you mean by 'succumb') than old people now. And that's worldwide - so much more weight on childhood disease than in, say, the UK [edit: intuitively, but on second thoughts one would need to check that].

    https://ourworldindata.org/pneumonia
    That's aggregating/averaging under-5's together, it is I believe under-1's that are at highest risk, not all under-5's.

    Under 1's are I believe more likely to die from pneumonia than pensioners of any age.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,216

    "Trump 2.0's pace of change could be the new normal that voters expect from any future POTUS."

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz


    There aint gonna be a "future" POTUS for a very long time.

    Hardly anyone seems to get what has happened. Even pol experts and polling gurus. Elections are over in America. He told usa voters what he would do and he is doing it.

    If the mid-terms happen normally, will you doubt your thesis?
    Yes.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,641

    "Trump 2.0's pace of change could be the new normal that voters expect from any future POTUS."

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz


    There aint gonna be a "future" POTUS for a very long time.

    Hardly anyone seems to get what has happened. Even pol experts and polling gurus. Elections are over in America. He told usa voters what he would do and he is doing it.

    If the mid-terms happen normally, will you doubt your thesis?
    Yes.
    The elections will go ahead as normal imo.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,237

    rcs1000 said:

    Is this a parody ?

    These children ask for organic options for tea – or sushi on Deliveroo. They moan about the lack of sports and big class sizes. They get picked up by a nanny (always Filipino). When my children get invited over to playdates, they get lost in their massive houses. Their open-plan kitchens are the size of my entire flat.

    The other day, Liberty nearly got strangled in a boy’s five-storey house by a long piece of string that they use to dangle down the staircase with a felt basket to bring up pencils and notes. The parents, of course, were devastated when I sent them photos on WhatsApp of her lacerated neck – and they promptly sent their nanny off to buy me organic healing cream from a King’s Road pharmacy.

    Another mum does the majority of the school run in an Uber – which she admits “saves on the parking tickets”. I didn’t dream of telling her I could hardly afford my heating bill. These parents are happy-clappy with the huge savings on fees – especially if they have more than one child. Two children at nearby Notting Hill Prep costs £8,783 per term.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/state-school-oversubscribed-vat-private-fees-b2697702.html

    The line The other day, Liberty nearly got strangled in a boy’s five-storey house by a long piece of string that they use to dangle down the staircase with a felt basket to bring up pencils and notes. The parents, of course, were devastated when I sent them photos on WhatsApp of her lacerated neck – and they promptly sent their nanny off to buy me organic healing cream from a King’s Road pharmacy. suggest parody.

    Firstly, who the hell calls their kid Liberty. Secondly, how do you lacerate a neck with string? (And if you did, you wouldn't get "healing cream".)

    That said... I totally believe the "Uber for the school run", not least because it's often insanely busy around schools and parking is non-existent. For those who don't want to take the bus (we took the bus), an Uber wouldn't be a ridiculous expense.
    This is the person who named her daughter Liberty:

    Charlotte Cripps is a Senior Culture Writer at The Independent who specialises in profile interviews. Her highly amusing and irreverant weekly column about IVF and being a single mother ran in The Independent from 2019 to 2021. She acted as arts editor/commissioning editor for The Independent's culture desk from 2017 to 2018. She began her career writing for Tatler and Harpers & Queen, before joining The Independent as a writer.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/author/charlotte-cripps

    I suspect the article is based on truth but exaggerated.
    Poor woman:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/features/ivf-grief-depression-husband-children-notting-hill-death-pregnancy-frozen-sperm-a9008581.html
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,641
    From a few days ago.

    "Austria's political crisis deepens as far right fails to form government"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c78x3klx4rjo
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