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Streeting’s little local difficulties could stop him succeeding Starmer – politicalbetting.com
Streeting’s little local difficulties could stop him succeeding Starmer – politicalbetting.com
This morning I wrote a piece on the next Prime Minister betting market and I thought the value lay with somebody on the Labour side, but who?
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The new MP for Bootle. Wes Streeting PM.
I don't believe there is any such thing as a safe Labour seat. Attacked from all angles, Tories, LDs, Greens, Reform and Corbyn Independents.
Norman Lamont did it in 1997
In suggesting Labour is on unsafe ground in Ilford North, we are, of course, assuming that pro-Gaza Independents will still be a thing in May 2029.
Apart from any other consideration we'll have a different US president to deal with.
https://protzonbeer.co.uk/comments/2023/02/10/bree-louise-did-this-pub-have-to-die
(The best summer lightening is at the Glue Pot in Swindon.)
However, a nice double for Ladbrokes would be 'Two Selwyn historians to be their respective party leaders, Labour and SNP, by, say, 2030'. And what a nice change it would make from Oxford PPEs.
Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
Germany, You-Gov poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 29%
AfD-ESN: 22% (-1)
SPD-S&D: 18% (+3)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 12% (-1)
LINKE-LEFT: 6% (+1)
BSW-NI: 6%
FDP-RE: 4% (+1)
+/- vs. 24-27 January 2025
Fieldwork: 31 January-4 February 2025
Sample size: 2,181
https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1887149640350327191
The @uscensusbureau has taken down American Community Survey microdata...
https://x.com/MaxGhenis/status/1886895884459270551
I didn’t actually chat to him beyond a couple of brief greetings. I agree he is probably the best communicator on the front bench. Labour desperately needs more of what used to be known as minister for the Today programme.
Anyhow, I have my reputation as the only person (with my team) to have defeated Streeting in an electoral contest to protect.
Baxtered, that gives Labour 264, Conservative 145, Reform 113, Lib Dem 73, Green 4.
If not and the Gaza Loons get stronger we would have the joy of seeing Jess Phillips, the minister for talking about Jess Phillips, losing.
Personally I doubt it. The woke tend to be overly sensitive to other people's inconsistencies and humourlessly blind to their own.
Not that he’s necessarily achieved anything yet.
Darren Jones, David Lammy, and Yvette Cooper have been “OK”.
Rayner weirdly invisible, probably a good thing.
Reeves and Phillipson very disappointing. Same as Nandy.
Miliband is active but dangerous.
If there is an election at any time pre-GE, I'd also back Rayner.
Post-GE defeat, probably someone not currently in the Cabinet
Post-GE, two or three years into a new Labour government, Bridget Philipson, Darren Jones or Torsten Bell.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/01/31/trump-defy-constitution-third-term-00200239
Can anyone tell us what is the best plan as yet from anyone with power but who isn't Trump?
Norfolk
Suffolk
Essex
Thurrock
Surrey
East Sussex
West Sussex
Hampshire
Isle of Wight
Labour has restored the whip to Richard Burgon, Ian Byrne, Imran Hussain and Rebecca Long-Bailey, after they spent just over six months as independents.
Three others who rebelled in July's vote - John McDonnell, Apsana Begum and Zarah Sultana - remain suspended.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14363483/Local-elections-POSTPONED-Middle-England-Rayner.html
It's all about the visuals.
Which tells you something about politics that you should already know.
I hope Muslim voters who voted for Trump or stayed home last November are grateful he is thanking them by proposing to kick Muslim Palestinians out of Gaza
I would guess McDonnell's suspension remains due to the Plod interview.
I am sure there is joy in Starmer's labours ranks at repenting sinners.
Kerr, the Chelsea and Australia striker, is accused of intentionally causing “racially aggravated harassment, alarm or distress to a police officer”, PC Stephen Lovell, in January 2023. She denies the charge.
The alleged incident took place after Kerr and her fiancée, United States international Kristie Mewis, got into a drunken row with a taxi driver.
Kerr told the court how she and Mewis had hailed a black cab in Oxford Street, London, in the early hours of January 30 after attending a friend’s birthday party.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2025/02/05/sam-kerr-chelsea-trail-police-taxi-sarah-everard/
There are 21 county councils in England. All of them hold whole-council elections on a four-year cycle that includes 2025. However, 7 county councils (Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Surrey, East Sussex, West Sussex, and Hampshire) had their elections cancelled due to local government reorganisation. A total of 16 county councils applied for their elections to be cancelled. Further, Derbyshire, Devon, Gloucestershire, Kent, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Oxfordshire, Warwickshire, and Worcestershire applied for their elections to be cancelled,[10] but will not be reorganised so will proceed as scheduled.
He has done a great job of presenting things which were already happening (this or indeed the big new datacenter) as his.
That's presentationally brilliant, sure.
But at the same time, if one chooses to believe it is actually brilliant, you are saying "lie to me", and you are enjoying being lied to.
He's also done long-term damage to the US economy, because Canadians feel that little bit less positve about their next door neighbour. Canada will now go that extra step to ensure that they can ship oil to China. Canadian consumers will be that little bit less likely to buy US products (witness the booing of the US national anthem at sports evens in Canada).
But if you want to characterise it as brilliant, knock yourself out.
The footballer said she did not recall speaking about PC Lovell being white.
A recording of her saying "you guys are f****** stupid and white" and "I'm f****** over this s***" was played.
Kerr then acknowledged that she had spoken about PC Lovell's race.
I do hope it's not
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_Media_Action
Its main source of income is from institutions. In 2024, it listed the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, the United States Agency for International Development and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency as its main donors.
As for Canadians feeling a "little less positive about their next door neighbour" - remind me, you were a Leave voter, amiright?
Leaving people feeling "a little less positive about their next door neighbour" is the pinnacle of political achievement in your book, shirley.
@RepGolden
I’ve been getting a lot of calls over the past few days, and the interesting thing is none of them are about Donald Trump. They’re all about Elon Musk. My constituents, and a majority of this country, put Trump in the White House, not this unelected, weirdo billionaire.
After October 7 there is no two state solution. It’s done
So what’s next? The only world leader offering ANY future to the Palestinians is - irony of ironies - Donald Trump
Only Hamas, who still want to wipe Israel from the map in theory and Trump and Netanyahu, who want to wipe Palestine from the map and have a greater Israel, disagree
Gives the impression of someone who has never been told 'no'.
OTOH despite being +1 in this poll, the FDP's knell has (probably) been knolled. I certainly hope so.
Edit. And you've clearly never been to Thorpe Bay, in what was Southend East.
I mean, great if you can do it. Go for it. Knock yerself out. You will save 10 million lives if you do it
But it’s simply not going to happen. Both sides are way beyond that, and bent upon the destruction of the other
Given that Israel has nukes and the Palestinians do not, the end result of this is probably the utter destruction of the Palestinians, as no Arab/Muslim country will, ultimately, intervene to save them lest they are themselves nuked by Israel
So the best that can be done is to persuade the Palestinians to give up, and to go live in luxurious comfort in condos somewhere else, and the world will willingly give them much money to ease the journey
Trump, being a ruthless dealmaking pragmatist, sees this, in his weird narcissistic way. I don’t believe he is any more pro-Israel than the average POTUS, indeed possibly less. He is greedier and more practical
There is already a Riviera of the Eastern Med. it’s called Beirut. And there’s also Tel Aviv and Haifa just the coast. And indeed Antalya.
This would be, at best, more like a Dubai of the Eastern Mediterranean. Soulless concrete and glass with little heritage, no street life, and acres of bland shopping malls. But probably not even that. Dubai does at least have a thriving business community and some impressive modern architecture. Trump’s developments are notably ugly and antisocial in conception, and lacking in architectural merit.
I was helping run the student union. I suggested we put on the extra security we put on for when the men’s team won - they could get a bit boisterous.
I was shouted down.
The physical damage to the Union went to 5 figures.
They’ve never had this. Arafat was a bit weird, and they’ve since had a succession of uninspiring technocratic types in the PA and terrorists in Gaza.
In the end if Israel is cornered and the Jews are facing wipe out it will take down and irradiate the entire Middle East, Israel included
I’ve no doubt they are serious, Iran etc also know this
What's the Jewish view of the end of the world?
He's offering them a forced relocation to the desert whilst providing the Israelis with more bombs. No doubt as soon as they move they will be bombed and once they settle they will be bombed. What choice?
There was a Israeli spokeswoman on the WATO who's rhetoric was indistinguishable from Nazi pamphlets. And this is a spokeswoman. Imagine what is said behind the scenes. Hopefully the Arabs will now understand that America will always support Israeli aggression. And Israel will always want more.
Seats being defended (i.e. those won at last election without defections) are as follows:
Con 1058 defences
Lab 307
LD 220
Green 37
Reform 2
No defence numbers given for Ind etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_Kingdom_local_elections?wprov=sfla1
What government is "foreseeable" in Israel? Current polling sees Bibi as likely to be voted out at the next election. That could see Benny Gantz as PM. He's not explicitly in favour of a 2-state solution, or of a 1-state solution, but is much more doveish than Netanyahu. The Democrats are doing well in the polls and Gantz would need them in his coalition probably: they favour a 2-state solution. On the other hand, Yisrael Beiteinu are also doing well in the polls and they don't.
10-30 years ago was a big change to achieve a 2-state solution and it didn't happen. But the best time to start on that solution is today. You need Bibi gone (preferably in jail, where he should be) and a US administration willing to apply pressure. This is entirely possible if we survive Trump and Bibi.