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Nearly a quarter of 2024 Tories are switching to Reform – politicalbetting.com
Nearly a quarter of 2024 Tories are switching to Reform – politicalbetting.com
Speak to a lot of Tories, particularly the activists, and they will tell you this is the worst government in history, if they are right then surely it must worry them that the Tories are now firmly in third place in pretty much every poll.
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It may be an outlier but we need to know why. Ped deaths are +25%. Cyclist deaths are up from 7 to 10, which may not be statistically significant.
I'll keep my ears open. The last pre-Covid number I recall was ~111 in 2019.
Heather Cox Richardson email.
It’s an impossible task with an inevitable end result as I’ve stated for years - Brexit / Bozo destroyed the Tory party
Let's suppose the Brexit vote had been lost 52%, to 48%. UKIP would have steadily cannibalised the Conservative vote, in the same way the SNP did with Labour.
...thinking about your own constituency....which party would you vote for?
Labour 18% (-1%)
Reform 18% (+1%)
Con 16% (=)
Would not vote 13% (+1%)
Don't know 12% (=)
LD 10% (=)
Green 6% (-1%)
Refused 3% (=)
SNP 2% (=)
Other party 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)
At lot less volatile and closer. Anyone trying to unpick that and make a prediction, well good luck.
It aims to complete 85% of cases in 12 months, but over 10%, about 120, have been with CCRC for over 2 years, some for much longer.
Letby case is very complex - could take years.
CCRC must separate significant new evidence, which could form the basis of a referral to Court of Appeal, from a new interpretation of existing evidence, which the Defence could have relied on at trial, but didn't.
It will also look to see if the jury may have been misled.
https://x.com/DannyShawNews/status/1886792001611276435
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93qwr7gn69o
Even more importantly the Tories under Kemi are now just 8% behind Labour with 18-24s, a huge turnaround from last year, with Reform 5th with the youngest voters behind the Greens and LDs. Kemi's Tories are now up 12% with 18-24s on Rishi's Tories and up a bit with under 40s too on where Rishi was.
Where the Tories are losing to Reform is mainly over 50s, with Reform now leading with 50-64s and the Tories just 2% ahead of Reform with over 65s with Labour 4th with pensioners. Kemi's Tories are down over 10% with over 65s on where Rishi's Tories were and down about 3% with 50-65s on where Rishi was.
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/VotingIntention_MRP_250203_w.pdf
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49978-how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-general-election
The total numbers for 2024 are 130 vs 120 in 2023, which is a smaller fluctuation.
We still need the detail, however, and the per billion km numbers, which are the best comparator.
Chagos latest - The Times
Exclusive from @georgegrylls
Sir Keir Starmer intends to 'push ahead' with deal to cede sovereignty to Chagos Islands and has offered significant concessions
Navin Ramgoolam, Mauritius's new prime minister, said his country has been offered 'complete sovereignty' of Diego Garcia, home to a critical US military base
He claimed that Starmer has effectively doubled the £9bn originally offered to Mauritius and weakened the British lease for Diego Garcia
He said the new deal will frontload instalments and link them to inflation. He also said that Mauritius will now have a right to veto extending the lease
He also revealed that Lord Hermer, the attorney-general, was involved in the latest round of face-to-face negotiations
Remember that terrible air crash where the pilot locked himself alone in the cockpit and intentionally crashed the plane whilst his copilot banged on the door begging him to stop?
It came to my mind watching some of the actions of the UK government recently.
Beattie was previously fired from the WH after CNN revealed he spoke at a conference that included white nationalists.
https://x.com/KFILE/status/1886785957866664205
As the UK becomes a cycling country again the number of fatalities will soar, particularly while there are gaps in the urban networks.
Heinlein?
Hanlon?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon's_razor
I vote, tentatively, for number 3.
Clearly, we disagree on the index - I do think it's useful or I wouldn't have referenced it, but I do agree that it doesn't capture everything and has some significant limitations. As it happens, I have close friends in Sweden (and lived there myself, for a time, before Covid) with whom I was in frequent contact so I had a fair handle, at the time, on the different levels of restriction. Early on, the legal position was very different here and there; later on, less so. There were a few periods where we could do things they could not (some of that was just due to peaks in infections happening at different points).
Anyway, I think the key point is that Sweden had more deaths than comparable neighbours. They also, I think, had some advantages (schools staying open was very sensible, particularly with hindsight). I'm not sure whether Sweden made the right choices or not; I think we made some errors, particularly after the first lockdown (which I still think was largely reasonable on the known facts at that time, which were few).
I'm not criticising Sweden, I just dislike the lazy notion (not yours) that still prevails that Sweden's approach had no downsides and that we could have done the same here without increasing our deaths.
So we're left with two choices. It's either a ludicrous policy that'll cost us billions for f-all reason, or it's a good policy that's been sold in such a way as to make it seem hideous.
And, there was not. My opponent simply did not understand what he was doing.
For example, for Sweden the index explicitly scores 'recommendations' as if they were legal restrictions AIUI.
In Germany it always scores the most restrictive rules anywhere in the country, even if they apply to only a few districts, for example. So if almost all the schools are open, but are closed in some districts it will score as if the schools are all closed.
I think the biggest difference was that Sweden didn't close kindergartens or primary schools at all. This is a pretty major difference, although in some other respects Sweden had somewhat similar measures to other countries, though sometimes made as 'recommendations' which were generally followed. You'd have to look in detail at the restrictions in place in different times and for how long to get an idea of the different levels of social distancing rules in different places. This is quite a difficult job, but I think the Covid stringency index is too flawed to be useful.
*or below, depending which way you look at things!
Nonetheless Starmer and Labour have taken it to an insane new level of treachery
The whole world is looking at us, these days, with a kind of sad, bewildered pity
We can address a lot of that in the interim by sorting out blocked Rights of Way, and things like pavement parking.
But I'm equally concerned about rural areas. I can see a way to 80-90% of English urban streets and roads having 20mph limits in 10-15 years, made irresistible by weight of evidence.
I can't see a similar route for making rural roads safer in a similar timeframe without a lot of political commitment, which this Govt may not have. National speed limit to 50mph is a baby step, but the need is re-creation of LHAs from the ground up, with effective responsibility for treating all modes equally.
Obviously if we get a current Tory party or RefUK (or the fvcking Ashfield Independents) having influence we are going back to the stone age.
Will save us £9b which Ed Miliband can use to make big holes to fill with Carbon.
Someone here tried to sell the idea that it must have been some brilliant covert op that Rory was stupidly hindering.
Alternatively, it was the Process State in read-only mode.
Anyway, if Sweden and the UK are similar then presumably UK is similar to Norway? Or Denmark? Look at their Covid deaths (for avoidance of doubt, I also think that's a flawed comparison).
add the two together and you've got a plot for Leon's next book.
On the merits, I think it would be better to keep the Chagos in order to avoid provoking the lunatic Chump unnecessarily in the short term, but also because I don't think that part of the world has yet got to the stage where they will protect the important marine reserve - so we need to keep that for perhaps another century.
Parenting site Mumsnet says it has stopped users from sharing pictures after it was targeted with images of child sexual abuse.
Company founder Justine Roberts told the BBC the "horrific incident" had been reported to police after the images were posted on the platform over several hours late on Sunday.
It has now suspended the facility to post pictures on the site as a temporary measure and is planning to introduce artificial intelligence (AI) filters to flag "illegal" and "disturbing" images before they appear.
Some Mumsnet users have raised concerns about the length of time the images were visible and the site's use of volunteer moderators during overnight hours in the UK.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93qw3lw4kvo
‘Buffy The Vampire Slayer’ Reboot Starring Sarah Michelle Gellar Nears Hulu Pilot Order With Chloé Zhao Directing
https://deadline.com/2025/02/buffy-the-vampire-slayer-reboot-sarah-michelle-gellar-hulu-pilot-chloe-zhao-1236273767/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJcIiVReXnc
Q: "I imagine gun violence of this kind is rare where you are?"
A: "Not really, sorry to say".
I’m sure that solution will satisfy everyone & have no downsides whatsoever.
Arguably a good thing - I’m surprised a site the size of Mumsnet hadn’t done so already - the services to scan your uploads are available from the large cloud providers.
(There’s lots about the OSA that I really don’t like, but basic filtering like this ought to be the expectation for any platform where you can upload images without human review.)
I can only assume that Sir Keir is indulging his lefty-lawyer shtick with this "deal" in the certain knowledge that the Donald will strike it down with one imperious sweep of his (small) hand.
"Starmer's done what ?"
We are giving the money to Mauritius. They will, of course, give all the money to the Chagos Islanders, along with all the money from the fishing rights.
I'd rather take my chances with Team Farage than Team Jenrick.