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Nearly a quarter of 2024 Tories are switching to Reform – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,999
    ...
    Leon said:

    The way the UK is plunging down the toilet voting Reform won’t be enough by 2029. We’ll need something much further to the right

    Hence Jenrick on manoeuvres?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,793

    ....

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick has just called Starmer a traitor on TwiX

    Going for the leadership.
    Always on manoeuvres.
    He isn't exactly wrong is he? It's a damn sight more damaging to British interests than anything Kim Philby managed.
    You would have been fully on board when Truss floated the idea.

    If you were recruiting spies against the UK, and one said they could get the UK to surrender its own territory, home to a Western military base, to a non-aligned country sympathetic to the biggest geopolitical rival of the West, and as a bonus, extract £18bn from the UK payable immediately, you would bite their arm off.
  • ....

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick has just called Starmer a traitor on TwiX

    Going for the leadership.
    Always on manoeuvres.
    He isn't exactly wrong is he? It's a damn sight more damaging to British interests than anything Kim Philby managed.
    You would have been fully on board when Truss floated the idea.

    I am told by very reliable sources that David Cameron (pbuh) saw the outline of the framework of the deal Dave’s response was ‘WTAF has Truss been smoking’ and kiboshed the deal.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,431
    glw said:

    glw said:

    "The replacement of our constitutional system of government with the whims of an unelected private citizen is a coup. The U.S. president has no authority to cut programs created and funded by Congress, and a private citizen tapped by a president has even less standing to try anything so radical."

    Heather Cox Richardson email.

    Some people act as though the President has no more business getting involved in politics than King Charles.
    The President does not control the purse. The President can not create or destroy government departments. Those are privileges that belong to Congress.
    Having a separation of powers is a terrible way to run a government. Our system is much better, or was before we tried to imitate the Americans.
    Whether or not it is a good system, it is THE system. Americans love to bang on about the Constitution and how great their system of government is, but right now it seem the President is above the law, he has usurped the powers of Congress, and the Constitution is of no more worth than an old till receipt from Poundland.
    Have Americans never heard of judicial review of executive action? It's England's favourite sport. Perhaps we should wait a week or two to see who gets round to issuing proceedings and what the judiciary say.

    The stage in the advance of authoritarianism where the executive simply ignores the courts and overrules them by just carrying on by force if necessary is a well trodden path.
  • Leon said:

    The way the UK is plunging down the toilet voting Reform won’t be enough by 2029. We’ll need something much further to the right

    Tommeh backed by Musk?
    Just think, Leon was about to vote SNP when he saw the stories about the SNP banning cats.

    A near miss.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,999

    ....

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick has just called Starmer a traitor on TwiX

    Going for the leadership.
    Always on manoeuvres.
    He isn't exactly wrong is he? It's a damn sight more damaging to British interests than anything Kim Philby managed.
    You would have been fully on board when Truss floated the idea.

    If you were recruiting spies against the UK, and one said they could get the UK to surrender its own territory, home to a Western military base, to a non-aligned country sympathetic to the biggest geopolitical rival of the West, and as a bonus, extract £18bn from the UK payable immediately, you would bite their arm off.
    It was all of those things back in 2022.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,138

    ....

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick has just called Starmer a traitor on TwiX

    Going for the leadership.
    Always on manoeuvres.
    He isn't exactly wrong is he? It's a damn sight more damaging to British interests than anything Kim Philby managed.
    You would have been fully on board when Truss floated the idea.

    I am told by very reliable sources that David Cameron (pbuh) saw the outline of the framework of the deal Dave’s response was ‘WTAF has Truss been smoking’ and kiboshed the deal.
    It really doesn’t make sense
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,793
    I don't understand what Mauritius' negotiating position was. No we don't want the £9bn we want £18bn. How did they know that Starmer would give them that, and not just walk away with a sigh of relief?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,793

    ....

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick has just called Starmer a traitor on TwiX

    Going for the leadership.
    Always on manoeuvres.
    He isn't exactly wrong is he? It's a damn sight more damaging to British interests than anything Kim Philby managed.
    You would have been fully on board when Truss floated the idea.

    I am told by very reliable sources that David Cameron (pbuh) saw the outline of the framework of the deal Dave’s response was ‘WTAF has Truss been smoking’ and kiboshed the deal.
    No you weren't.

    Negotiations did not even commence till Truss was out of office.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,436

    ....

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick has just called Starmer a traitor on TwiX

    Going for the leadership.
    Always on manoeuvres.
    He isn't exactly wrong is he? It's a damn sight more damaging to British interests than anything Kim Philby managed.
    You would have been fully on board when Truss floated the idea.

    If you were recruiting spies against the UK, and one said they could get the UK to surrender its own territory, home to a Western military base, to a non-aligned country sympathetic to the biggest geopolitical rival of the West, and as a bonus, extract £18bn from the UK payable immediately, you would bite their arm off.
    It was all of those things back in 2022.
    So Labour’s best defence of this deal is

    1. Yes it’s an absolutely shit Tory deal that’s why we have no choice but to carry on with it

    And

    2. We’ve made it twice as bad
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,436
    If Starmer genuinely signs this deal it could finish him
    off. It is that bad
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,452

    I don't understand what Mauritius' negotiating position was. No we don't want the £9bn we want £18bn. How did they know that Starmer would give them that, and not just walk away with a sigh of relief?

    I believe the ask has shifted from £9billion to £9billion index linked, so the real present value has ~ doubled.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,436

    I don't understand what Mauritius' negotiating position was. No we don't want the £9bn we want £18bn. How did they know that Starmer would give them that, and not just walk away with a sigh of relief?

    Their lawyer is Starmer’s best friend. Weird, huh
  • ....

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick has just called Starmer a traitor on TwiX

    Going for the leadership.
    Always on manoeuvres.
    He isn't exactly wrong is he? It's a damn sight more damaging to British interests than anything Kim Philby managed.
    You would have been fully on board when Truss floated the idea.

    I am told by very reliable sources that David Cameron (pbuh) saw the outline of the framework of the deal Dave’s response was ‘WTAF has Truss been smoking’ and kiboshed the deal.
    No you weren't.

    Negotiations did not even commence till Truss was out of office.
    I said the framework, not the deal.

    Here’s what her own spokesman said last year.

    But Mr Cleverly’s camp has hit back with a briefing that blames former prime minister Liz Truss and suggests that the loss of the islands is part of the toxic legacy of her 49-day premiership.

    A source close to Mr Cleverly said: “Ultimately, the direction is set by the prime minister on these matters. [Liz] Truss’s decision surprised many people. These included James Cleverly, who inherited responsibility for the talks when he became foreign secretary and had to make the announcement.”

    But a spokesman for Ms Truss told The Independent: "It was Boris Johnson who asked Liz to talk to Prime Minister Jugnauth about this at COP26, which she did.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,999
    Leon said:

    If Starmer genuinely signs this deal it could finish him
    off. It is that bad

    Hats off to you. You have absolutely stolen the thread. No one is talking about the Tories and Reform, just about Chagos. You can chalk that down as another win.
  • eek said:

    ....

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick has just called Starmer a traitor on TwiX

    Going for the leadership.
    Always on manoeuvres.
    He isn't exactly wrong is he? It's a damn sight more damaging to British interests than anything Kim Philby managed.
    You would have been fully on board when Truss floated the idea.

    I am told by very reliable sources that David Cameron (pbuh) saw the outline of the framework of the deal Dave’s response was ‘WTAF has Truss been smoking’ and kiboshed the deal.
    It really doesn’t make sense
    It’s like giving Spain money to take Gibraltar off our hands.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,431
    MattW said:

    An example of the sort of problem that may need to be managed once the new laws come in:

    Parenting site Mumsnet says it has stopped users from sharing pictures after it was targeted with images of child sexual abuse.

    Company founder Justine Roberts told the BBC the "horrific incident" had been reported to police after the images were posted on the platform over several hours late on Sunday.

    It has now suspended the facility to post pictures on the site as a temporary measure and is planning to introduce artificial intelligence (AI) filters to flag "illegal" and "disturbing" images before they appear.

    Some Mumsnet users have raised concerns about the length of time the images were visible and the site's use of volunteer moderators during overnight hours in the UK.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93qw3lw4kvo

    Question from an analogue dinosaur: To post something on Mumsnet do you have to be in some manner registered so that someone in the system can uniquely identify you to the police? What this report describes is a very serious offence by the person posting.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,057
    Err.. so I’ve just read the Chagos “deal”

    Isn’t this so utterly stupid that there must be something more to it? Is Starmer that bad at politics?
  • eek said:

    ....

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick has just called Starmer a traitor on TwiX

    Going for the leadership.
    Always on manoeuvres.
    He isn't exactly wrong is he? It's a damn sight more damaging to British interests than anything Kim Philby managed.
    You would have been fully on board when Truss floated the idea.

    I am told by very reliable sources that David Cameron (pbuh) saw the outline of the framework of the deal Dave’s response was ‘WTAF has Truss been smoking’ and kiboshed the deal.
    It really doesn’t make sense
    It’s like giving Spain money to take Gibraltar off our hands.
    I bet it's going to cost a lot more than 18bn to give Gibraltar back
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,436
    Wait until people hear about the £18bn
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,057
    I’m guessing the terms of the deal weren’t stated in that poll
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,587
    https://x.com/nbcnews/status/1886816890128875534

    BREAKING: The White House is preparing an executive order to eliminate the Department of Education, two sources familiar with the plans tell @NBCNews.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,999

    ....

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick has just called Starmer a traitor on TwiX

    Going for the leadership.
    Always on manoeuvres.
    He isn't exactly wrong is he? It's a damn sight more damaging to British interests than anything Kim Philby managed.
    You would have been fully on board when Truss floated the idea.

    I am told by very reliable sources that David Cameron (pbuh) saw the outline of the framework of the deal Dave’s response was ‘WTAF has Truss been smoking’ and kiboshed the deal.
    No you weren't.

    Negotiations did not even commence till Truss was out of office.
    I said the framework, not the deal.

    Here’s what her own spokesman said last year.

    But Mr Cleverly’s camp has hit back with a briefing that blames former prime minister Liz Truss and suggests that the loss of the islands is part of the toxic legacy of her 49-day premiership.

    A source close to Mr Cleverly said: “Ultimately, the direction is set by the prime minister on these matters. [Liz] Truss’s decision surprised many people. These included James Cleverly, who inherited responsibility for the talks when he became foreign secretary and had to make the announcement.”

    But a spokesman for Ms Truss told The Independent: "It was Boris Johnson who asked Liz to talk to Prime Minister Jugnauth about this at COP26, which she did.
    That's what I like to see. All calamitous paths leading back to Boris Johnson.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,909

    https://x.com/nbcnews/status/1886816890128875534

    BREAKING: The White House is preparing an executive order to eliminate the Department of Education, two sources familiar with the plans tell @NBCNews.

    "We don't need no education!!"
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,999

    https://x.com/nbcnews/status/1886816890128875534

    BREAKING: The White House is preparing an executive order to eliminate the Department of Education, two sources familiar with the plans tell @NBCNews.

    Thank you for your balance and posting negative Trump stories too.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,384

    https://x.com/nbcnews/status/1886816890128875534

    BREAKING: The White House is preparing an executive order to eliminate the Department of Education, two sources familiar with the plans tell @NBCNews.

    @ydoethur for Trump!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,909

    eek said:

    ....

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick has just called Starmer a traitor on TwiX

    Going for the leadership.
    Always on manoeuvres.
    He isn't exactly wrong is he? It's a damn sight more damaging to British interests than anything Kim Philby managed.
    You would have been fully on board when Truss floated the idea.

    I am told by very reliable sources that David Cameron (pbuh) saw the outline of the framework of the deal Dave’s response was ‘WTAF has Truss been smoking’ and kiboshed the deal.
    It really doesn’t make sense
    It’s like giving Spain money to take Gibraltar off our hands.
    "I have altered the deal, Calrissian. Pray I don't alter it further!"
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,607
    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    An example of the sort of problem that may need to be managed once the new laws come in:

    Parenting site Mumsnet says it has stopped users from sharing pictures after it was targeted with images of child sexual abuse.

    Company founder Justine Roberts told the BBC the "horrific incident" had been reported to police after the images were posted on the platform over several hours late on Sunday.

    It has now suspended the facility to post pictures on the site as a temporary measure and is planning to introduce artificial intelligence (AI) filters to flag "illegal" and "disturbing" images before they appear.

    Some Mumsnet users have raised concerns about the length of time the images were visible and the site's use of volunteer moderators during overnight hours in the UK.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93qw3lw4kvo

    Question from an analogue dinosaur: To post something on Mumsnet do you have to be in some manner registered so that someone in the system can uniquely identify you to the police? What this report describes is a very serious offence by the person posting.
    We get trolls here on PB. All you need is a valid email account that (AIUI) is not on certain blacklists. No other checks are done that I'm aware of. Besides, what checks can realistically be done?

    The interesting thing is how the authorities can track down who posted such images, even if they are in the UK. If the person doing it is stupid, quite a lot. If they are clever, they may well get away with it.

    A more interesting question is why do it?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,793
    edited February 4

    ....

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick has just called Starmer a traitor on TwiX

    Going for the leadership.
    Always on manoeuvres.
    He isn't exactly wrong is he? It's a damn sight more damaging to British interests than anything Kim Philby managed.
    You would have been fully on board when Truss floated the idea.

    I am told by very reliable sources that David Cameron (pbuh) saw the outline of the framework of the deal Dave’s response was ‘WTAF has Truss been smoking’ and kiboshed the deal.
    No you weren't.

    Negotiations did not even commence till Truss was out of office.
    I said the framework, not the deal.

    Here’s what her own spokesman said last year.

    But Mr Cleverly’s camp has hit back with a briefing that blames former prime minister Liz Truss and suggests that the loss of the islands is part of the toxic legacy of her 49-day premiership.

    A source close to Mr Cleverly said: “Ultimately, the direction is set by the prime minister on these matters. [Liz] Truss’s decision surprised many people. These included James Cleverly, who inherited responsibility for the talks when he became foreign secretary and had to make the announcement.”

    But a spokesman for Ms Truss told The Independent: "It was Boris Johnson who asked Liz to talk to Prime Minister Jugnauth about this at COP26, which she did.
    Sorry to sound repetitive, but the *commencement* of the negotiations happened *after* Truss left office. Truss could have promised Mauritius the world on a stick (I don't think she did; it's more Cleverly and the FO's style) but she was out of office before the talks even began, under PM Rishi Sunak. Neither Sunak nor Cleverly was under any
    o obligation to even start negotiations, much less follow anything Liz Truss had to say on the matter.
  • algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    An example of the sort of problem that may need to be managed once the new laws come in:

    Parenting site Mumsnet says it has stopped users from sharing pictures after it was targeted with images of child sexual abuse.

    Company founder Justine Roberts told the BBC the "horrific incident" had been reported to police after the images were posted on the platform over several hours late on Sunday.

    It has now suspended the facility to post pictures on the site as a temporary measure and is planning to introduce artificial intelligence (AI) filters to flag "illegal" and "disturbing" images before they appear.

    Some Mumsnet users have raised concerns about the length of time the images were visible and the site's use of volunteer moderators during overnight hours in the UK.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93qw3lw4kvo

    Question from an analogue dinosaur: To post something on Mumsnet do you have to be in some manner registered so that someone in the system can uniquely identify you to the police? What this report describes is a very serious offence by the person posting.
    We get trolls here on PB. All you need is a valid email account that (AIUI) is not on certain blacklists. No other checks are done that I'm aware of. Besides, what checks can realistically be done?

    The interesting thing is how the authorities can track down who posted such images, even if they are in the UK. If the person doing it is stupid, quite a lot. If they are clever, they may well get away with it.

    A more interesting question is why do it?
    To close down a website.

    Remember the strict liability regarding child abuse pictures.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,667
    People up and down the country are absolutely furious about the betrayal of the Chagos deal. The voters have never been so angry.
    A stunning 5% know where the Chagos Islands are, and nearly the same proportion know the details of the deal. At a guess.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,793
    Leon said:

    Wait until people hear about the £18bn
    There has already been polling since that with the opposite outcome.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,732

    eek said:

    ....

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick has just called Starmer a traitor on TwiX

    Going for the leadership.
    Always on manoeuvres.
    He isn't exactly wrong is he? It's a damn sight more damaging to British interests than anything Kim Philby managed.
    You would have been fully on board when Truss floated the idea.

    I am told by very reliable sources that David Cameron (pbuh) saw the outline of the framework of the deal Dave’s response was ‘WTAF has Truss been smoking’ and kiboshed the deal.
    It really doesn’t make sense
    It’s like giving Spain money to take Gibraltar off our hands.
    If this was just about the islands, we could just hand them over, but all the money stuff is about the military base. It’s like giving Spain money to notionally take Gibraltar off our hands, but for, in reality, Gibraltar to remain a UK military base.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,173
    Anyone inclined to trust Glenn Greenwald should read this book: https://www.amazon.co.uk/How-America-Lost-Its-Secrets/dp/0451494563

    (One of the things I like best about it is Epstein's discussion of unresolved questions. Alas, we are unlikely to get answers to them unless Putin falls from power.)
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,395

    eek said:

    ....

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick has just called Starmer a traitor on TwiX

    Going for the leadership.
    Always on manoeuvres.
    He isn't exactly wrong is he? It's a damn sight more damaging to British interests than anything Kim Philby managed.
    You would have been fully on board when Truss floated the idea.

    I am told by very reliable sources that David Cameron (pbuh) saw the outline of the framework of the deal Dave’s response was ‘WTAF has Truss been smoking’ and kiboshed the deal.
    It really doesn’t make sense
    It’s like giving Spain money to take Gibraltar off our hands.
    I bet it's going to cost a lot more than 18bn to give Gibraltar back
    To Morocco?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,436

    People up and down the country are absolutely furious about the betrayal of the Chagos deal. The voters have never been so angry.
    A stunning 5% know where the Chagos Islands are, and nearly the same proportion know the details of the deal. At a guess.

    On the other hand 95% of voters will understand that £18bn is an enormous amount of money. That Starmer wants to give away. To a foreign country. So THEY can take OUR sovereign territory
  • People up and down the country are absolutely furious about the betrayal of the Chagos deal. The voters have never been so angry.
    A stunning 5% know where the Chagos Islands are, and nearly the same proportion know the details of the deal. At a guess.

    Last polling had 40% against and 18% in favour. That was under old terms.
  • Just seen that Ange has been put in charge of deciding our new blasphemy laws..
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,909
    Leon said:

    People up and down the country are absolutely furious about the betrayal of the Chagos deal. The voters have never been so angry.
    A stunning 5% know where the Chagos Islands are, and nearly the same proportion know the details of the deal. At a guess.

    On the other hand 95% of voters will understand that £18bn is an enormous amount of money. That Starmer wants to give away. To a foreign country. So THEY can take OUR sovereign territory
    "Why do you people in the media always focus on the negative side of things, when so much of what happens at this leisure centre is a success story? Last year, six hundred people visited this centre, and nearly five hundred returned home without any loss of life or serious injury!"
  • I’m guessing the terms of the deal weren’t stated in that poll
    Alternatively, more recently, you get the opposite:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_natglobalpoll_20250130.html
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,436
    edited February 4

    People up and down the country are absolutely furious about the betrayal of the Chagos deal. The voters have never been so angry.
    A stunning 5% know where the Chagos Islands are, and nearly the same proportion know the details of the deal. At a guess.

    Last polling had 40% against and 18% in favour. That was under old terms.
    The proposed “deal” is so mind numbingly stupid and wrong and self harming and treacherous I wonder if it has been deliberately “leaked” to the Times to

    1. Damage Starmer and

    2. Scupper the deal before they can sign it
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,909

    Just seen that Ange has been put in charge of deciding our new blasphemy laws..

    Merkel or Rayner? :lol:
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,220
    Aren't we all supposed to be poor?

    Sales of personalised number plates have more than doubled over the past decade, figures obtained by the BBC suggest.

    More than 1.2 million transactions took place in 2024, up from about 500,000 in 2014, according to data from the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA).

    That includes plates bought directly from the DVLA, as well as those that change hands privately. Plates can be bought for less than £50 – but the most lucrative combinations can fetch hundreds of thousands of pounds, external.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czdlr7q78qyo
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,354
    How Gwen Stefani made Donald Trump President
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/4kZSxUrHkjk

    40-second video of Jimmy Carr talking politics (no jokes)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,534
    That's before people knew it would cost us £9bn.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,436
    MaxPB said:

    That's before people knew it would cost us £9bn.
    £18bn. Just been doubled
  • Oooh

    ‘Buffy The Vampire Slayer’ Reboot Starring Sarah Michelle Gellar Nears Hulu Pilot Order With Chloé Zhao Directing

    https://deadline.com/2025/02/buffy-the-vampire-slayer-reboot-sarah-michelle-gellar-hulu-pilot-chloe-zhao-1236273767/

    Torn between 'yessss' and 'God, they're going ruin it'.
    If it's as bad as "The Eternals" you'll wish they hadn't bothered..💩
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,449
    Now reported as 10 killed in the Swedish school shooting. RIP.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,000
    edited February 4
    ACAB.

    The CPS wouldn’t have fallen for this if Starmer was still DPP.

    Sam Kerr trial: officer did not mention impact of ‘stupid and white’ comments for 11 months, court hears

    Defence claims PC Stephen Lovell only submitted second statement after the CPS declined to charge Matildas star



    The Metropolitan police officer at the centre of Sam Kerr’s criminal trial did not mention being upset by being called “stupid and white” by the footballer in his first statement about the incident, a court has heard, and only included it in a further statement 11 months later.

    On Monday, Kingston crown court heard that Kerr, 31, the captain of the Australian women’s football team and Chelsea’s star striker, called PC Stephen Lovell “fucking stupid and white” after he doubted her claim of being “held hostage” by a taxi driver after a night out with her partner Kristie Mewis in January 2023.

    On Tuesday, it was revealed that the Crown Prosecution Service, the body which has the final say on whether a criminal prosecution can go ahead in England and Wales, initially decided against charging Kerr as the evidence did not meet the required threshold.

    But the CPS decided to charge Kerr with racially aggravated intentional harassment after a second statement was provided by Lovell in December 2023, 11 months after the incident first happened. He said her comments had left him “shocked, upset and humiliated”. She denies the charges.

    During cross-examination on Tuesday, Kerr’s defence barrister, Grace Forbes, asked Lovell about this first statement, which was submitted on 30 January 2023. She put it to Lovell: ““Your first statement made no mention of stupid and white having had an impact.”

    Lovell said it did not.

    She then accused Lovell of submitting a second statement in December 2023 “because the CPS declined to charge Kerr”, saying “only a year later did you make mention of these words having had an impact on you… The CPS didn’t identify charge. You knew that was the obstacle?”

    “No,” Lovell said.

    “You are claiming this impact purely to get a criminal charge over the line?” she asked him again.

    “No,” he said.


    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2025/feb/04/sam-kerr-trial-officer-did-not-mention-stupid-and-white-comments-11-months-the-cps-decided-to-charge-kerr-after-a-second-statement-was-provided-by-lovell-in-december-2023-11-months-ntwnfb
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,538

    Just seen that Ange has been put in charge of deciding our new blasphemy laws..

    ... Postecoglu?
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,604
    MattW said:

    An example of the sort of problem that may need to be managed once the new laws come in:

    Parenting site Mumsnet says it has stopped users from sharing pictures after it was targeted with images of child sexual abuse.

    Company founder Justine Roberts told the BBC the "horrific incident" had been reported to police after the images were posted on the platform over several hours late on Sunday.

    It has now suspended the facility to post pictures on the site as a temporary measure and is planning to introduce artificial intelligence (AI) filters to flag "illegal" and "disturbing" images before they appear.

    Some Mumsnet users have raised concerns about the length of time the images were visible and the site's use of volunteer moderators during overnight hours in the UK.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93qw3lw4kvo

    Would anyone who viewed those foul images inadvertently be guilty of an offence ?

    I wonder what would happen with this when the online safety act comes into force, would the site owners be guilty of an offence ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,604

    Just seen that Ange has been put in charge of deciding our new blasphemy laws..

    Merkel or Rayner? :lol:
    Neither

    Postecoglou.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,081
    edited February 4
    MaxPB said:

    That's before people knew it would cost us £9bn.
    The previous deal I could get my head around. You’re giving back sovereignty based on an international ruling (although given the historical treatment of the Chagos islanders giving this to another country essentially behind their back feels suboptimal), but in order to maintain a military base there you agree to pay a 90m a year lease for the 99 year term.

    This is roughly covered by the lease income you get from the US for their use of the base - paid through discounts on Trident. So in effect you lose a territory but get to keep the base pretty much for free.

    The giving away the territory bit is not great business on the face of it but it’s just following the established post-war decolonisation playbook. I assume it costs something to maintain too.

    But now it looks like we’re paying more for the lease to Mauritius than we get back from the US. So there’s a net cost. Which you’d better hope is worth it given that before this deal there wasn’t.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,604
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,604
    Eabhal said:

    Just seen that Ange has been put in charge of deciding our new blasphemy laws..

    ... Postecoglu?
    Ah, beat me to it.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 250
    Starmer has agreed a treasonous for the Chagis Islands. What an anti British snake.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 250
    Leon said:

    People up and down the country are absolutely furious about the betrayal of the Chagos deal. The voters have never been so angry.
    A stunning 5% know where the Chagos Islands are, and nearly the same proportion know the details of the deal. At a guess.

    Last polling had 40% against and 18% in favour. That was under old terms.
    The proposed “deal” is so mind numbingly stupid and wrong and self harming and treacherous I wonder if it has been deliberately “leaked” to the Times to

    1. Damage Starmer and

    2. Scupper the deal before they can sign it
    oh I hope so. Or hopefully Trump can save us on this
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,081
    In light of yesterday’s climb down by Trump on Canadian and Mexican tariffs, this on the Ukraine rare earths “deal” is interesting because it appears on the surface to follow a similar dynamic:

    https://x.com/polymarketintel/status/1886825916854043136?s=46

    Zelensky: "We are open to the fact that minerals can be developed with our partners who help us protect our land and push the enemy back with their weapons, their presence, sanctions packages. And this is absolutely fair. I talked about this back in September, when we had a meeting with President Trump."

    The dynamic being that Trump demands something or else, that something has already largely been agreed to in principle by the other country, and a great deal is seen to be done. Faces saved everywhere.

    If Zelenskyy is smart then getting Trump excited about minerals, something we know he’s coveting in Greenland, could put US and Ukrainian interests in close alignment,
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,056

    Just seen that Ange has been put in charge of deciding our new blasphemy laws..

    As if managing Spurs wasn't enough...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,613
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    An example of the sort of problem that may need to be managed once the new laws come in:

    Parenting site Mumsnet says it has stopped users from sharing pictures after it was targeted with images of child sexual abuse.

    Company founder Justine Roberts told the BBC the "horrific incident" had been reported to police after the images were posted on the platform over several hours late on Sunday.

    It has now suspended the facility to post pictures on the site as a temporary measure and is planning to introduce artificial intelligence (AI) filters to flag "illegal" and "disturbing" images before they appear.

    Some Mumsnet users have raised concerns about the length of time the images were visible and the site's use of volunteer moderators during overnight hours in the UK.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93qw3lw4kvo

    Would anyone who viewed those foul images inadvertently be guilty of an offence ?

    I wonder what would happen with this when the online safety act comes into force, would the site owners be guilty of an offence ?
    Yes but as long as not done with intent that could be a defence.

  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,618
    Perhaps Starmer is leaning from Canada and is agreeing to all manner of silly things he never means to do and can throw overboard in exchange for escaping sanctions.

    We honestly should have just given the islands to the yanks if we don’t have the balls to rebut the silly Mauritian claim anymore.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 250

    Err.. so I’ve just read the Chagos “deal”

    Isn’t this so utterly stupid that there must be something more to it? Is Starmer that bad at politics?

    its what he believes. He believes in reparations.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,641
    GE2024 Tory voters are 100% faithful.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,816
    A
    Leon said:

    The way the UK is plunging down the toilet voting Reform won’t be enough by 2029. We’ll need something much further to the right

    You're thinking of running then?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,700

    https://x.com/nbcnews/status/1886816890128875534

    BREAKING: The White House is preparing an executive order to eliminate the Department of Education, two sources familiar with the plans tell @NBCNews.

    "We don't need no education!!"
    Clearly worked for the Orange Don to be fair.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,434
    edited February 4
    If you want your twitter summarised for 2023/4, you can use this link. The example is OGH

    https://twitterwrapped.exa.ai/msmithsonpb
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,431
    Further on the Letby developments. The BBC report (and the Guardian SFAICS don't) that the Letby team have not issued their full report but only a summary. So this may be a bit of a PR exercise and anything less good on behalf of Letby has been left out.

    There is also the question of Why the PR exercise? None of this makes any difference to the CCRC, still less the famously austere and sceptical Court of Appeal (Crim Div).

    PR exercise and an incompletely issued report. I advise wait and see.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,641
    Pro_Rata said:

    Now reported as 10 killed in the Swedish school shooting. RIP.

    We shouldn't speculate but what are the chances it was someone who'd been told to leave the country.
  • edited February 4
    Nunu3 said:

    Err.. so I’ve just read the Chagos “deal”

    Isn’t this so utterly stupid that there must be something more to it? Is Starmer that bad at politics?

    its what he believes. He believes in reparations.
    So he imagines a black hole of £22B which he inherited and now he imagines he is going to give £19B of that £22B to a third party for no rational reason.

    I think it is about time someone went to the High Court to have him removed from parliament. Clearly he is wanting of common reason and so is not capable of serving as an MP. There must still be the Common Law process for removing a deranged MP, wasn't it used in the 1920s ?

    Then he can continue in his delusion that he isn't the worst Minister of the Crown since the Reformation unaffected by the reality that he is. Perhaps he and Joe Biden could set up house together.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,732

    Nunu3 said:

    Err.. so I’ve just read the Chagos “deal”

    Isn’t this so utterly stupid that there must be something more to it? Is Starmer that bad at politics?

    its what he believes. He believes in reparations.
    So he imagines a black hole of £22B which he inherited and now he imagines he is going to give £19B of that £22B to a third party for no rational reason.

    I think it is about time someone went to the High Court to have him removed from parliament. Clearly he is wanting of common reason and so is not capable of serving as an MP. There must still be the Common Law process for removing a deranged MP, wasn't it used in the 1920s ?

    Then he can continue in his delusion that he isn't the worst Minister of the Crown since the Reformation unaffected by the reality that he is. Perhaps he and Joe Biden could set up house together.
    No deal has been agreed yet. The deal is not all cost, but it ensures continuing income from the US for military base. The money is not all spent at once, but over a long period.

    So, it may or may not be a good or bad deal, but it’s not a £19B bill now. The net cost is much lower and over many years.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,793
    edited February 4
    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    That's before people knew it would cost us £9bn.
    The previous deal I could get my head around. You’re giving back sovereignty based on an international ruling (although given the historical treatment of the Chagos islanders giving this to another country essentially behind their back feels suboptimal), but in order to maintain a military base there you agree to pay a 90m a year lease for the 99 year term.

    This is roughly covered by the lease income you get from the US for their use of the base - paid through discounts on Trident. So in effect you lose a territory but get to keep the base pretty much for free.

    The giving away the territory bit is not great business on the face of it but it’s just following the established post-war decolonisation playbook. I assume it costs something to maintain too.

    But now it looks like we’re paying more for the lease to Mauritius than we get back from the US. So there’s a net cost. Which you’d better hope is worth it given that before this deal there wasn’t.
    I don't really accept this summary - for starters we were paying nothing before and still getting the 'Trident discount' so even the original shit deal was an extreme added net cost.

    But if this goes through, how are any Labour politicians going to stand up and ever claim that a saving needs to be made? How will they ever justify a spending cut or a tax rise? How will they ever criticise the profligacy of the Tories? How will they ever claim that Reform's sums don't add up? How will they campaign for re-election? If it's so easy to find £18bn down the back of the sofa for this crap, it makes a total mockery of everything else.

    I really think it will be stopped somehow. I think Labour figures must somehow tap Starmer on the shoulder.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,183

    ACAB.

    The CPS wouldn’t have fallen for this if Starmer was still DPP.

    Sam Kerr trial: officer did not mention impact of ‘stupid and white’ comments for 11 months, court hears

    Defence claims PC Stephen Lovell only submitted second statement after the CPS declined to charge Matildas star



    The Metropolitan police officer at the centre of Sam Kerr’s criminal trial did not mention being upset by being called “stupid and white” by the footballer in his first statement about the incident, a court has heard, and only included it in a further statement 11 months later.

    On Monday, Kingston crown court heard that Kerr, 31, the captain of the Australian women’s football team and Chelsea’s star striker, called PC Stephen Lovell “fucking stupid and white” after he doubted her claim of being “held hostage” by a taxi driver after a night out with her partner Kristie Mewis in January 2023.

    On Tuesday, it was revealed that the Crown Prosecution Service, the body which has the final say on whether a criminal prosecution can go ahead in England and Wales, initially decided against charging Kerr as the evidence did not meet the required threshold.

    But the CPS decided to charge Kerr with racially aggravated intentional harassment after a second statement was provided by Lovell in December 2023, 11 months after the incident first happened. He said her comments had left him “shocked, upset and humiliated”. She denies the charges.

    During cross-examination on Tuesday, Kerr’s defence barrister, Grace Forbes, asked Lovell about this first statement, which was submitted on 30 January 2023. She put it to Lovell: ““Your first statement made no mention of stupid and white having had an impact.”

    Lovell said it did not.

    She then accused Lovell of submitting a second statement in December 2023 “because the CPS declined to charge Kerr”, saying “only a year later did you make mention of these words having had an impact on you… The CPS didn’t identify charge. You knew that was the obstacle?”

    “No,” Lovell said.

    “You are claiming this impact purely to get a criminal charge over the line?” she asked him again.

    “No,” he said.


    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2025/feb/04/sam-kerr-trial-officer-did-not-mention-stupid-and-white-comments-11-months-the-cps-decided-to-charge-kerr-after-a-second-statement-was-provided-by-lovell-in-december-2023-11-months-ntwnfb

    What a snowflake (the PC).

    It's frankly ridiculous that a few mean words said can constitute a crime worthy of a trial at a county court.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,446
    Ratters said:

    ACAB.

    The CPS wouldn’t have fallen for this if Starmer was still DPP.

    Sam Kerr trial: officer did not mention impact of ‘stupid and white’ comments for 11 months, court hears

    Defence claims PC Stephen Lovell only submitted second statement after the CPS declined to charge Matildas star



    The Metropolitan police officer at the centre of Sam Kerr’s criminal trial did not mention being upset by being called “stupid and white” by the footballer in his first statement about the incident, a court has heard, and only included it in a further statement 11 months later.

    On Monday, Kingston crown court heard that Kerr, 31, the captain of the Australian women’s football team and Chelsea’s star striker, called PC Stephen Lovell “fucking stupid and white” after he doubted her claim of being “held hostage” by a taxi driver after a night out with her partner Kristie Mewis in January 2023.

    On Tuesday, it was revealed that the Crown Prosecution Service, the body which has the final say on whether a criminal prosecution can go ahead in England and Wales, initially decided against charging Kerr as the evidence did not meet the required threshold.

    But the CPS decided to charge Kerr with racially aggravated intentional harassment after a second statement was provided by Lovell in December 2023, 11 months after the incident first happened. He said her comments had left him “shocked, upset and humiliated”. She denies the charges.

    During cross-examination on Tuesday, Kerr’s defence barrister, Grace Forbes, asked Lovell about this first statement, which was submitted on 30 January 2023. She put it to Lovell: ““Your first statement made no mention of stupid and white having had an impact.”

    Lovell said it did not.

    She then accused Lovell of submitting a second statement in December 2023 “because the CPS declined to charge Kerr”, saying “only a year later did you make mention of these words having had an impact on you… The CPS didn’t identify charge. You knew that was the obstacle?”

    “No,” Lovell said.

    “You are claiming this impact purely to get a criminal charge over the line?” she asked him again.

    “No,” he said.


    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2025/feb/04/sam-kerr-trial-officer-did-not-mention-stupid-and-white-comments-11-months-the-cps-decided-to-charge-kerr-after-a-second-statement-was-provided-by-lovell-in-december-2023-11-months-ntwnfb

    What a snowflake (the PC).

    It's frankly ridiculous that a few mean words said can constitute a crime worthy of a trial at a county court.
    She sounds like an unpleasant person, but this kind of thing really doesn't sound like it should reach this level at all. In fact it is worrying that it is not surprising that this case and others do reach this level.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,446

    Andy_JS said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Now reported as 10 killed in the Swedish school shooting. RIP.

    We shouldn't speculate but what are the chances it was someone who'd been told to leave the country.
    He said, speculating.
    Well, he did say we should not, not that he would not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,613
    Ratters said:

    ACAB.

    The CPS wouldn’t have fallen for this if Starmer was still DPP.

    Sam Kerr trial: officer did not mention impact of ‘stupid and white’ comments for 11 months, court hears

    Defence claims PC Stephen Lovell only submitted second statement after the CPS declined to charge Matildas star



    The Metropolitan police officer at the centre of Sam Kerr’s criminal trial did not mention being upset by being called “stupid and white” by the footballer in his first statement about the incident, a court has heard, and only included it in a further statement 11 months later.

    On Monday, Kingston crown court heard that Kerr, 31, the captain of the Australian women’s football team and Chelsea’s star striker, called PC Stephen Lovell “fucking stupid and white” after he doubted her claim of being “held hostage” by a taxi driver after a night out with her partner Kristie Mewis in January 2023.

    On Tuesday, it was revealed that the Crown Prosecution Service, the body which has the final say on whether a criminal prosecution can go ahead in England and Wales, initially decided against charging Kerr as the evidence did not meet the required threshold.

    But the CPS decided to charge Kerr with racially aggravated intentional harassment after a second statement was provided by Lovell in December 2023, 11 months after the incident first happened. He said her comments had left him “shocked, upset and humiliated”. She denies the charges.

    During cross-examination on Tuesday, Kerr’s defence barrister, Grace Forbes, asked Lovell about this first statement, which was submitted on 30 January 2023. She put it to Lovell: ““Your first statement made no mention of stupid and white having had an impact.”

    Lovell said it did not.

    She then accused Lovell of submitting a second statement in December 2023 “because the CPS declined to charge Kerr”, saying “only a year later did you make mention of these words having had an impact on you… The CPS didn’t identify charge. You knew that was the obstacle?”

    “No,” Lovell said.

    “You are claiming this impact purely to get a criminal charge over the line?” she asked him again.

    “No,” he said.


    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2025/feb/04/sam-kerr-trial-officer-did-not-mention-stupid-and-white-comments-11-months-the-cps-decided-to-charge-kerr-after-a-second-statement-was-provided-by-lovell-in-december-2023-11-months-ntwnfb

    What a snowflake (the PC).

    It's frankly ridiculous that a few mean words said can constitute a crime worthy of a trial at a county court.
    Trial at crown court, not even magistrates (though the accused did also vomit in a cab and not clean it up and smash a window that should still only have been a case for magistrates not a judge and jury)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,446

    Err.. so I’ve just read the Chagos “deal”

    Isn’t this so utterly stupid that there must be something more to it? Is Starmer that bad at politics?

    I need to hunt down some 'pro' articles about it as doesn't seem like a very good deal. The anti side portray the only supposed benefit being that we will get reputational improvements from following 'international law' on the matter, which frankly doesn't sound enough in a matter which seems pretty clearly transactional for all three parties, so there surely has to be more to it than that.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,911

    Leon said:

    The way the UK is plunging down the toilet voting Reform won’t be enough by 2029. We’ll need something much further to the right

    We might need to go so far right we go round the horseshoe to Mao.
    In which case you'll be one of the first for the paddy fields. Closely followed by Leon.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,648
    @jimsciutto
    Breaking: FBI employees have sued the Acting Attorney General James McHenry, accusing the Justice Department of violating the Constitution and privacy laws by demanding that agents complete a survey allegedly designed to “purge” bureau personnel who were involved in investigations related to President Donald Trump and the January 6 US Capitol attack.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,613
    edited February 4
    Andy_JS said:

    GE2024 Tory voters are 100% faithful.

    They aren't, as I showed earlier the Tories have been losing many of their 2024 voters over 50 to Reform. Yet they have gained some voters under 50 from Labour and the LDs.

    Indeed Kemi has made the biggest net gains for the Conservatives with under 50s since Cameron if you believe Yougov, just lots of pensioners and late middle aged men have gone off in a huff to Nige
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,431

    https://x.com/nbcnews/status/1886816890128875534

    BREAKING: The White House is preparing an executive order to eliminate the Department of Education, two sources familiar with the plans tell @NBCNews.

    "We don't need no education!!"
    Clearly worked for the Orange Don to be fair.
    TBF we probably have often wondered whether our Dept of Ed needs to do much more than send out annual cheques to counties (remember them) to divvy out to schools so that they can teach small children to read and write and pay the teachers, and employ a couple of people competent in each subject to remind the counties (supposing the subject be history) the difference between Thomas of Woodstock and Henry Bolingbroke's respective wives and suchlike.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,534

    Nunu3 said:

    Err.. so I’ve just read the Chagos “deal”

    Isn’t this so utterly stupid that there must be something more to it? Is Starmer that bad at politics?

    its what he believes. He believes in reparations.
    So he imagines a black hole of £22B which he inherited and now he imagines he is going to give £19B of that £22B to a third party for no rational reason.

    I think it is about time someone went to the High Court to have him removed from parliament. Clearly he is wanting of common reason and so is not capable of serving as an MP. There must still be the Common Law process for removing a deranged MP, wasn't it used in the 1920s ?

    Then he can continue in his delusion that he isn't the worst Minister of the Crown since the Reformation unaffected by the reality that he is. Perhaps he and Joe Biden could set up house together.
    No deal has been agreed yet. The deal is not all cost, but it ensures continuing income from the US for military base. The money is not all spent at once, but over a long period.

    So, it may or may not be a good or bad deal, but it’s not a £19B bill now. The net cost is much lower and over many years.
    But the question is why do anything at all? Tell Mauritius and China to do one, send what little naval forces we have and park them there in case Xi gets any ideas from Trump.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,793
    kle4 said:

    Err.. so I’ve just read the Chagos “deal”

    Isn’t this so utterly stupid that there must be something more to it? Is Starmer that bad at politics?

    I need to hunt down some 'pro' articles about it as doesn't seem like a very good deal. The anti side portray the only supposed benefit being that we will get reputational improvements from following 'international law' on the matter, which frankly doesn't sound enough in a matter which seems pretty clearly transactional for all three parties, so there surely has to be more to it than that.
    Surely the opposite is true? We will get a reputation for giving away territory for no reason with a healthy stipend to boot. How is that an improvement in our reputation? On the contrary, it is a reputation that any country would be fearful of acquiring. Negotiating anything worldwide just got near impossible.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 386
    Scott_xP said:

    @jimsciutto
    Breaking: FBI employees have sued the Acting Attorney General James McHenry, accusing the Justice Department of violating the Constitution and privacy laws by demanding that agents complete a survey allegedly designed to “purge” bureau personnel who were involved in investigations related to President Donald Trump and the January 6 US Capitol attack.

    There's the Unitary Executive theory again

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/04/trump-jack-smith-special-counsel-prosecutors-firings
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,081
    It’s 18bn over

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    That's before people knew it would cost us £9bn.
    The previous deal I could get my head around. You’re giving back sovereignty based on an international ruling (although given the historical treatment of the Chagos islanders giving this to another country essentially behind their back feels suboptimal), but in order to maintain a military base there you agree to pay a 90m a year lease for the 99 year term.

    This is roughly covered by the lease income you get from the US for their use of the base - paid through discounts on Trident. So in effect you lose a territory but get to keep the base pretty much for free.

    The giving away the territory bit is not great business on the face of it but it’s just following the established post-war decolonisation playbook. I assume it costs something to maintain too.

    But now it looks like we’re paying more for the lease to Mauritius than we get back from the US. So there’s a net cost. Which you’d better hope is worth it given that before this deal there wasn’t.
    I don't really accept this summary - for starters we were paying nothing before and still getting the 'Trident discount' so even the original shit deal was an extreme added net cost.

    But if this goes through, how are any Labour politicians going to stand up and ever claim that a saving needs to be made? How will they ever justify a spending cut or a tax rise? How will they ever criticise the profligacy of the Tories? How will they ever claim that Reform's sums don't add up? How will they campaign for re-election? If it's so easy to find £18bn down the back of the sofa for this crap, it makes a total mockery of everything else.

    I really think it will be stopped somehow. I
    think Labour figures must somehow tap Starmer on the shoulder.
    It’s 18bn over 99 years (or as I understand it 90m per year with indexation). That may or may not be a good deal but it’s of an order of magnitude well below plenty of spending decisions made all the time.

    There are two separate points of contention here, which I think people are conflating.

    1. Britain had an overseas possession. It’s relinquishing sovereignty over it based on an international court ruling. Depending on taste, one is either for or against this kind of thing. Both major parties have accepted in principle that it should happen. It’s similar to various post-colonial transactions since the war
    2. Because of 1, Britain now needs to lease the military base it has there. A bit like, dare I say, Russia leasing its Sevastopol base in Crimea from Ukraine after independence. The question is whether 90m a year is good or bad value.

    I’m on board with1 in principle although I think it should have built in guarantees for the Chagossians. Others may not be.

    I don’t know whether 2 is or isn’t a good deal. No idea what the going rate is for a base.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,534

    kle4 said:

    Err.. so I’ve just read the Chagos “deal”

    Isn’t this so utterly stupid that there must be something more to it? Is Starmer that bad at politics?

    I need to hunt down some 'pro' articles about it as doesn't seem like a very good deal. The anti side portray the only supposed benefit being that we will get reputational improvements from following 'international law' on the matter, which frankly doesn't sound enough in a matter which seems pretty clearly transactional for all three parties, so there surely has to be more to it than that.
    Surely the opposite is true? We will get a reputation for giving away territory for no reason with a healthy stipend to boot. How is that an improvement in our reputation? On the contrary, it is a reputation that any country would be fearful of acquiring. Negotiating anything worldwide just got near impossible.
    Yup the idea that we're "upholding the rule of law" or whatever they're banging on about is laughable. If as much as £1 worth of investment was withdrawn in the event the government ignored the "ruling" from the kangaroo court I'd be shocked. It's not at all credible.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,911
    edited February 4

    Nunu3 said:

    Err.. so I’ve just read the Chagos “deal”

    Isn’t this so utterly stupid that there must be something more to it? Is Starmer that bad at politics?

    its what he believes. He believes in reparations.
    So he imagines a black hole of £22B which he inherited and now he imagines he is going to give £19B of that £22B to a third party for no rational reason.

    I think it is about time someone went to the High Court to have him removed from parliament. Clearly he is wanting of common reason and so is not capable of serving as an MP. There must still be the Common Law process for removing a deranged MP, wasn't it used in the 1920s ?

    Then he can continue in his delusion that he isn't the worst Minister of the Crown since the Reformation unaffected by the reality that he is. Perhaps he and Joe Biden could set up house together.
    No deal has been agreed yet. The deal is not all cost, but it ensures continuing income from the US for military base. The money is not all spent at once, but over a long period.

    So, it may or may not be a good or bad deal, but it’s not a £19B bill now. The net cost is much lower and over many years.
    I think it was Sean_F the other day who pointed out how people get very animated over stuff that has zero impact on their lives.

    The trigger for his comment was people moaning about Brexit.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,534
    TimS said:

    It’s 18bn over

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    That's before people knew it would cost us £9bn.
    The previous deal I could get my head around. You’re giving back sovereignty based on an international ruling (although given the historical treatment of the Chagos islanders giving this to another country essentially behind their back feels suboptimal), but in order to maintain a military base there you agree to pay a 90m a year lease for the 99 year term.

    This is roughly covered by the lease income you get from the US for their use of the base - paid through discounts on Trident. So in effect you lose a territory but get to keep the base pretty much for free.

    The giving away the territory bit is not great business on the face of it but it’s just following the established post-war decolonisation playbook. I assume it costs something to maintain too.

    But now it looks like we’re paying more for the lease to Mauritius than we get back from the US. So there’s a net cost. Which you’d better hope is worth it given that before this deal there wasn’t.
    I don't really accept this summary - for starters we were paying nothing before and still getting the 'Trident discount' so even the original shit deal was an extreme added net cost.

    But if this goes through, how are any Labour politicians going to stand up and ever claim that a saving needs to be made? How will they ever justify a spending cut or a tax rise? How will they ever criticise the profligacy of the Tories? How will they ever claim that Reform's sums don't add up? How will they campaign for re-election? If it's so easy to find £18bn down the back of the sofa for this crap, it makes a total mockery of everything else.

    I really think it will be stopped somehow. I
    think Labour figures must somehow tap Starmer on the shoulder.
    It’s 18bn over 99 years (or as I understand it 90m per year with indexation). That may or may not be a good deal but it’s of an order of magnitude well below plenty of spending decisions made all the time.

    There are two separate points of contention here, which I think people are conflating.

    1. Britain had an overseas possession. It’s relinquishing sovereignty over it based on an international court ruling. Depending on taste, one is either for or against this kind of thing. Both major parties have accepted in principle that it should happen. It’s similar to various post-colonial transactions since the war
    2. Because of 1, Britain now needs to lease the military base it has there. A bit like, dare I say, Russia leasing its Sevastopol base in Crimea from Ukraine after independence. The question is whether 90m a year is good or bad value.

    I’m on board with1 in principle although I think it should have built in guarantees for the Chagossians. Others may not be.

    I don’t know whether 2 is or isn’t a good deal. No idea what the going rate is for a base.
    That's if you accept the court decision at all and don't believe they're acting as a mouthpiece for China. You people are incredibly naive, those "judges" aren't to be trusted.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,446
    edited February 4

    kle4 said:

    Err.. so I’ve just read the Chagos “deal”

    Isn’t this so utterly stupid that there must be something more to it? Is Starmer that bad at politics?

    I need to hunt down some 'pro' articles about it as doesn't seem like a very good deal. The anti side portray the only supposed benefit being that we will get reputational improvements from following 'international law' on the matter, which frankly doesn't sound enough in a matter which seems pretty clearly transactional for all three parties, so there surely has to be more to it than that.
    Surely the opposite is true? We will get a reputation for giving away territory for no reason with a healthy stipend to boot. How is that an improvement in our reputation? On the contrary, it is a reputation that any country would be fearful of acquiring. Negotiating anything worldwide just got near impossible.
    I'm mainly confused why the Mauritians seem to be able to get extra concessions from us at this point - I cannot see how we would look worse for sticking with previous terms, for those that already look on us negatively about the whole affair. The government has denied that it is desperate to get a deal over the line, but it sure looks like it, given any cost would in any case be over a long period presumably, so there's no rush to sign from either side.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,534
    kinabalu said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Err.. so I’ve just read the Chagos “deal”

    Isn’t this so utterly stupid that there must be something more to it? Is Starmer that bad at politics?

    its what he believes. He believes in reparations.
    So he imagines a black hole of £22B which he inherited and now he imagines he is going to give £19B of that £22B to a third party for no rational reason.

    I think it is about time someone went to the High Court to have him removed from parliament. Clearly he is wanting of common reason and so is not capable of serving as an MP. There must still be the Common Law process for removing a deranged MP, wasn't it used in the 1920s ?

    Then he can continue in his delusion that he isn't the worst Minister of the Crown since the Reformation unaffected by the reality that he is. Perhaps he and Joe Biden could set up house together.
    No deal has been agreed yet. The deal is not all cost, but it ensures continuing income from the US for military base. The money is not all spent at once, but over a long period.

    So, it may or may not be a good or bad deal, but it’s not a £19B bill now. The net cost is much lower and over many years.
    I think it was Sean_F the other day who pointed out how people get very animated over stuff that has zero impact on their lives.

    The trigger for his comment was people moaning about Brexit.
    £18bn has an impact on our lives. It makes us £18bn poorer and requires tax increases or spending cuts to pay for. Giving it away is stupid, but not really enough to get worked up about, paying them £18bn to take it from us is mental to the point I'm not sure if Starmer is a Chinese plant.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,474
    TimS said:

    It’s 18bn over

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    That's before people knew it would cost us £9bn.
    The previous deal I could get my head around. You’re giving back sovereignty based on an international ruling (although given the historical treatment of the Chagos islanders giving this to another country essentially behind their back feels suboptimal), but in order to maintain a military base there you agree to pay a 90m a year lease for the 99 year term.

    This is roughly covered by the lease income you get from the US for their use of the base - paid through discounts on Trident. So in effect you lose a territory but get to keep the base pretty much for free.

    The giving away the territory bit is not great business on the face of it but it’s just following the established post-war decolonisation playbook. I assume it costs something to maintain too.

    But now it looks like we’re paying more for the lease to Mauritius than we get back from the US. So there’s a net cost. Which you’d better hope is worth it given that before this deal there wasn’t.
    I don't really accept this summary - for starters we were paying nothing before and still getting the 'Trident discount' so even the original shit deal was an extreme added net cost.

    But if this goes through, how are any Labour politicians going to stand up and ever claim that a saving needs to be made? How will they ever justify a spending cut or a tax rise? How will they ever criticise the profligacy of the Tories? How will they ever claim that Reform's sums don't add up? How will they campaign for re-election? If it's so easy to find £18bn down the back of the sofa for this crap, it makes a total mockery of everything else.

    I really think it will be stopped somehow. I
    think Labour figures must somehow tap Starmer on the shoulder.
    It’s 18bn over 99 years (or as I understand it 90m per year with indexation). That may or may not be a good deal but it’s of an order of magnitude well below plenty of spending decisions made all the time.

    There are two separate points of contention here, which I think people are conflating.

    1. Britain had an overseas possession. It’s relinquishing sovereignty over it based on an international court ruling. Depending on taste, one is either for or against this kind of thing. Both major parties have accepted in principle that it should happen. It’s similar to various post-colonial transactions since the war
    2. Because of 1, Britain now needs to lease the military base it has there. A bit like, dare I say, Russia leasing its Sevastopol base in Crimea from Ukraine after independence. The question is whether 90m a year is good or bad value.

    I’m on board with1 in principle although I think it should have built in guarantees for the Chagossians. Others may not be.

    I don’t know whether 2 is or isn’t a good deal. No idea what the going rate is for a base.
    It's nothing like Russia leasing Sevastapol from Ukraine. It's more like Russia leasing Sevastopol from Eritrea. Chagos is nowhere near Mauritius.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,641
    kinabalu said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Err.. so I’ve just read the Chagos “deal”

    Isn’t this so utterly stupid that there must be something more to it? Is Starmer that bad at politics?

    its what he believes. He believes in reparations.
    So he imagines a black hole of £22B which he inherited and now he imagines he is going to give £19B of that £22B to a third party for no rational reason.

    I think it is about time someone went to the High Court to have him removed from parliament. Clearly he is wanting of common reason and so is not capable of serving as an MP. There must still be the Common Law process for removing a deranged MP, wasn't it used in the 1920s ?

    Then he can continue in his delusion that he isn't the worst Minister of the Crown since the Reformation unaffected by the reality that he is. Perhaps he and Joe Biden could set up house together.
    No deal has been agreed yet. The deal is not all cost, but it ensures continuing income from the US for military base. The money is not all spent at once, but over a long period.

    So, it may or may not be a good or bad deal, but it’s not a £19B bill now. The net cost is much lower and over many years.
    I think it was Sean_F the other day who pointed out how people get very animated over stuff that has zero impact on their lives.

    The trigger for his comment was people moaning about Brexit.
    Interesting to know that you think losing £18 billion will have zero impact.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 58
    The Yougov poll in the header shows Reform in 2nd place in Scotland - 17%. I know it's a subsample, caveats etc but it will be interesting to see how their vote settles up here. Need a Scotland only poll to see if they're ahead of Slab

    Still a long way from winning a Scottish westminster seat, but there should be some very nervous Tory MSPs going into next years Holyrood vote. It looks like the drop in Slab has went to SNP, with a smaller chunk to Reform
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,081
    edited February 4
    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Err.. so I’ve just read the Chagos “deal”

    Isn’t this so utterly stupid that there must be something more to it? Is Starmer that bad at politics?

    its what he believes. He believes in reparations.
    So he imagines a black hole of £22B which he inherited and now he imagines he is going to give £19B of that £22B to a third party for no rational reason.

    I think it is about time someone went to the High Court to have him removed from parliament. Clearly he is wanting of common reason and so is not capable of serving as an MP. There must still be the Common Law process for removing a deranged MP, wasn't it used in the 1920s ?

    Then he can continue in his delusion that he isn't the worst Minister of the Crown since the Reformation unaffected by the reality that he is. Perhaps he and Joe Biden could set up house together.
    No deal has been agreed yet. The deal is not all cost, but it ensures continuing income from the US for military base. The money is not all spent at once, but over a long period.

    So, it may or may not be a good or bad deal, but it’s not a £19B bill now. The net cost is much lower and over many years.
    I think it was Sean_F the other day who pointed out how people get very animated over stuff that has zero impact on their lives.

    The trigger for his comment was people moaning about Brexit.
    Interesting to know that you think losing £18 billion will have zero impact.
    Over 99 years. 90m a year, rising with inflation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,613
    'Angela Rayner is set to appoint a pro-Remain former Tory MP to lead a new body to advise on Islamophobia.

    Dominic Grieve, who previously served as Attorney General, has been recommended to chair a committee of 16 people set up to define anti-Muslim prejudice.

    Mr Grieve wrote the foreword to a 2018 report on Islamophobia by the All-Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims co-chaired by Health Secretary Wes Streeting.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14357221/Angela-Rayner-lines-pro-Remain-ex-Tory-MP-head-new-body-advising-Islamophobia-critics-raise-free-speech-blasphemy-law-fears.html

  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,081
    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    It’s 18bn over

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    That's before people knew it would cost us £9bn.
    The previous deal I could get my head around. You’re giving back sovereignty based on an international ruling (although given the historical treatment of the Chagos islanders giving this to another country essentially behind their back feels suboptimal), but in order to maintain a military base there you agree to pay a 90m a year lease for the 99 year term.

    This is roughly covered by the lease income you get from the US for their use of the base - paid through discounts on Trident. So in effect you lose a territory but get to keep the base pretty much for free.

    The giving away the territory bit is not great business on the face of it but it’s just following the established post-war decolonisation playbook. I assume it costs something to maintain too.

    But now it looks like we’re paying more for the lease to Mauritius than we get back from the US. So there’s a net cost. Which you’d better hope is worth it given that before this deal there wasn’t.
    I don't really accept this summary - for starters we were paying nothing before and still getting the 'Trident discount' so even the original shit deal was an extreme added net cost.

    But if this goes through, how are any Labour politicians going to stand up and ever claim that a saving needs to be made? How will they ever justify a spending cut or a tax rise? How will they ever criticise the profligacy of the Tories? How will they ever claim that Reform's sums don't add up? How will they campaign for re-election? If it's so easy to find £18bn down the back of the sofa for this crap, it makes a total mockery of everything else.

    I really think it will be stopped somehow. I
    think Labour figures must somehow tap Starmer on the shoulder.
    It’s 18bn over 99 years (or as I understand it 90m per year with indexation). That may or may not be a good deal but it’s of an order of magnitude well below plenty of spending decisions made all the time.

    There are two separate points of contention here, which I think people are conflating.

    1. Britain had an overseas possession. It’s relinquishing sovereignty over it based on an international court ruling. Depending on taste, one is either for or against this kind of thing. Both major parties have accepted in principle that it should happen. It’s similar to various post-colonial transactions since the war
    2. Because of 1, Britain now needs to lease the military base it has there. A bit like, dare I say, Russia leasing its Sevastopol base in Crimea from Ukraine after independence. The question is whether 90m a year is good or bad value.

    I’m on board with1 in principle although I think it should have built in guarantees for the Chagossians. Others may not be.

    I don’t know whether 2 is or isn’t a good deal. No idea what the going rate is for a base.
    It's nothing like Russia leasing Sevastapol from Ukraine. It's more like Russia leasing Sevastopol from Eritrea. Chagos is nowhere near Mauritius.
    It’s the closest country apart from the Maldives. And a heck of a lot closer than Britain.
This discussion has been closed.