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Britain Trump: Could it happen here? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,471
    edited February 2

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So the PB consensus seems to be we should just let Trump invade Greenland...

    Macron is dealing with that
    What is it to do with Macron ?

    It's Danish
    Macron suggested sending EU troops to defend Greenland.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/trump-suffers-humiliating-greenland-backlash-as-macron-readies-eu-army-to-defend-island/ar-AA1y3oHg?ocid=BingNewsVerp
    He's as mad as Trump

    And what EU army?
  • RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So the PB consensus seems to be we should just let Trump invade Greenland...

    No, we have first dibs.
    No, the plan is that while he is busy in Greenland, we strike across the Canadian border and take the Whitehouse.

    The establishment of the Second British Empire follows…
    1812 all over again.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,920
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    kle4 said:

    Not been following the detail, but has any of this Canada stuff aided the government ratings there? The Liberals needed a big boost.

    Worth about five percentage points to the Liberals. However Canadian polling companies have very strong house effects. The company most favourable to the Liberals has the results more or less back to the last general election, while with others it's gone from wipeout to landslide.
    I also think that's why Pierre Polievre has hit back today against Trump to separate himself from this all. The CPC will still win but it won't be the thumping majority they were expecting. It's another oddity with Trump, surely he should have held off until his ally was in power and then rolled over the Canadian Tories with a very unfavorable deal.
    But what, exactly, does Trump want out of Canada?

    Trudeau rolled on immigration control pretty much immediately, so it isn't that.

    Trump claims it's about Fentanyl, but really, it's about a bilateral trade surplus that was created by the keystone pipeline that he supported.
    I'd say the main thing he wants is to dominate news cycle.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,539
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    kle4 said:

    Not been following the detail, but has any of this Canada stuff aided the government ratings there? The Liberals needed a big boost.

    Worth about five percentage points to the Liberals. However Canadian polling companies have very strong house effects. The company most favourable to the Liberals has the results more or less back to the last general election, while with others it's gone from wipeout to landslide.
    I also think that's why Pierre Polievre has hit back today against Trump to separate himself from this all. The CPC will still win but it won't be the thumping majority they were expecting. It's another oddity with Trump, surely he should have held off until his ally was in power and then rolled over the Canadian Tories with a very unfavorable deal.
    But what, exactly, does Trump want out of Canada?

    Trudeau rolled on immigration control pretty much immediately, so it isn't that.

    Trump claims it's about Fentanyl, but really, it's about a bilateral trade surplus that was created by the keystone pipeline that he supported.
    You're right, it's actually not defined what Trump wants from Canada other than fewer Canadian imports in general. I can understand why Trump would want to put up tariffs against China and maybe even the EU at a stretch but it doesn't make sense with Canada and Mexico at all and there isn't an endgame to this plan, all he's doing is raising gas prices by putting a 10% tariff on Canadian oil, drivers in northern US states won't thank him for that.

    I also think what this shows is that Trump 47 can't be talked down in the same way Trump 45 could, I'm sure there were plenty of people on the team suggesting a limited set of tariffs and setting out what they want to achieve with them etc... but what we got was unfiltered nonsense and then a 10% tariff on Canadian oil that will put gas prices up when Americans are screaming for them to come down.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,539

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So the PB consensus seems to be we should just let Trump invade Greenland...

    No, we have first dibs.
    No, the plan is that while he is busy in Greenland, we strike across the Canadian border and take the Whitehouse.

    The establishment of the Second British Empire follows…
    1812 all over again.
    Well if 2025 has as good an overture written for it maybe it will be worth it.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,742
    edited February 2
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    kle4 said:

    Not been following the detail, but has any of this Canada stuff aided the government ratings there? The Liberals needed a big boost.

    Worth about five percentage points to the Liberals. However Canadian polling companies have very strong house effects. The company most favourable to the Liberals has the results more or less back to the last general election, while with others it's gone from wipeout to landslide.
    I also think that's why Pierre Polievre has hit back today against Trump to separate himself from this all. The CPC will still win but it won't be the thumping majority they were expecting. It's another oddity with Trump, surely he should have held off until his ally was in power and then rolled over the Canadian Tories with a very unfavorable deal.
    But what, exactly, does Trump want out of Canada?

    Trudeau rolled on immigration control pretty much immediately, so it isn't that.

    Trump claims it's about Fentanyl, but really, it's about a bilateral trade surplus that was created by the keystone pipeline that he supported.
    I think he wants a physical empire and not just an economic one. Canada is squidgy, lots of oil, the right colour people and similar culture.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,520
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So the PB consensus seems to be we should just let Trump invade Greenland...

    No, we have first dibs.
    No, the plan is that while he is busy in Greenland, we strike across the Canadian border and take the Whitehouse.

    The establishment of the Second British Empire follows…
    1812 all over again.
    Well if 2025 has as good an overture written for it maybe it will be worth it.
    Indeed. Plus when the Martians invaded we got a great rock opera album out of it, so you really can get great things from tragedies.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,634
    This is (statistically) interesting. Not a single person who voted Remain in YouGov's poll thought Brexit has had a positive impact. Usually you get a percent or two who, as it were, believe the moon landings never happened.

    https://bsky.app/profile/yougov.co.uk/post/3lgzlc3527c23

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,520

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    kle4 said:

    Not been following the detail, but has any of this Canada stuff aided the government ratings there? The Liberals needed a big boost.

    Worth about five percentage points to the Liberals. However Canadian polling companies have very strong house effects. The company most favourable to the Liberals has the results more or less back to the last general election, while with others it's gone from wipeout to landslide.
    I also think that's why Pierre Polievre has hit back today against Trump to separate himself from this all. The CPC will still win but it won't be the thumping majority they were expecting. It's another oddity with Trump, surely he should have held off until his ally was in power and then rolled over the Canadian Tories with a very unfavorable deal.
    But what, exactly, does Trump want out of Canada?

    Trudeau rolled on immigration control pretty much immediately, so it isn't that.

    Trump claims it's about Fentanyl, but really, it's about a bilateral trade surplus that was created by the keystone pipeline that he supported.
    I think he wants a physical empire and not just an economic one. Canada is squidgy, lots of oil, the right colour people and similar culture.
    Replace one of the Mount Rushmore heads with Trump's and that will probably mollify any need for conquest.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,415
    edited February 2
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    Ok. If this keeps happening - let me know and I'll give you a list of people to have little chats with your wife about.
    Many, many years ago, long before I met the girl who is now Mrs Cole, I had a girl-friend who I then thought likely to be Mrs Cole. And we discussed the possibility and she thought so too.
    However as romances at that stage often do, it collapsed. She met someone else at Uni and .....many of us have been there.
    At our somewhat emotional parting I promised, as one does, that if she ever needed me, I'd be there. Which got a scornful reply.
    Fifty or so years later I suddenly started to see her, "just round the corner"; to have visions of her. I couldn't get her out of my my mind. Went on for a couple of months. Then she vanished.
    Later I went on one of the genealogical research sites, checked on her and found that when she'd 'appeared to me' she'd been dying in Canada, divorced from the chap she left me for.
    Weird.
    Amazing story, Thankyou

    You might be interested to know this is an established phenomenon. It’s called a “crisis apparition”
    I had something similar, I guess. 'The One'. Deeply suffering from depression. Eventually she got so far away from me - psychologically - that we split up.

    Years later I kept thinking "Oh was that....? Oh, maybe not.". Month after month, week after week - probably for around an intense three months or so.

    Then discovered around that time she'd climbed up to a cliff at night above a disused quarry and thrown herself off into the dark, dank, rancid water in the pit.

    I still think of how wretched that last night - clambering up the wind-swept path, rasping branches, knowing what she intended - must have been and it breaks my heart each time.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,415

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    kle4 said:

    Not been following the detail, but has any of this Canada stuff aided the government ratings there? The Liberals needed a big boost.

    Worth about five percentage points to the Liberals. However Canadian polling companies have very strong house effects. The company most favourable to the Liberals has the results more or less back to the last general election, while with others it's gone from wipeout to landslide.
    I also think that's why Pierre Polievre has hit back today against Trump to separate himself from this all. The CPC will still win but it won't be the thumping majority they were expecting. It's another oddity with Trump, surely he should have held off until his ally was in power and then rolled over the Canadian Tories with a very unfavorable deal.
    But what, exactly, does Trump want out of Canada?

    Trudeau rolled on immigration control pretty much immediately, so it isn't that.

    Trump claims it's about Fentanyl, but really, it's about a bilateral trade surplus that was created by the keystone pipeline that he supported.
    I think he wants a physical empire and not just an economic one. Canada is squidgy, lots of oil, the right colour people and similar culture.
    He might conquer Canada Major - but boot out Quebec - solving and creating many problems at once.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,168
    .
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    kle4 said:

    Not been following the detail, but has any of this Canada stuff aided the government ratings there? The Liberals needed a big boost.

    Worth about five percentage points to the Liberals. However Canadian polling companies have very strong house effects. The company most favourable to the Liberals has the results more or less back to the last general election, while with others it's gone from wipeout to landslide.
    I also think that's why Pierre Polievre has hit back today against Trump to separate himself from this all. The CPC will still win but it won't be the thumping majority they were expecting. It's another oddity with Trump, surely he should have held off until his ally was in power and then rolled over the Canadian Tories with a very unfavorable deal.
    But what, exactly, does Trump want out of Canada?

    Trudeau rolled on immigration control pretty much immediately, so it isn't that.

    Trump claims it's about Fentanyl, but really, it's about a bilateral trade surplus that was created by the keystone pipeline that he supported.
    I think he wants a physical empire and not just an economic one. Canada is squidgy, lots of oil, the right colour people and similar culture.
    Replace one of the Mount Rushmore heads with Trump's and that will probably mollify any need for conquest.
    Facsimile, or the actual thing ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,520
    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    kle4 said:

    Not been following the detail, but has any of this Canada stuff aided the government ratings there? The Liberals needed a big boost.

    Worth about five percentage points to the Liberals. However Canadian polling companies have very strong house effects. The company most favourable to the Liberals has the results more or less back to the last general election, while with others it's gone from wipeout to landslide.
    I also think that's why Pierre Polievre has hit back today against Trump to separate himself from this all. The CPC will still win but it won't be the thumping majority they were expecting. It's another oddity with Trump, surely he should have held off until his ally was in power and then rolled over the Canadian Tories with a very unfavorable deal.
    But what, exactly, does Trump want out of Canada?

    Trudeau rolled on immigration control pretty much immediately, so it isn't that.

    Trump claims it's about Fentanyl, but really, it's about a bilateral trade surplus that was created by the keystone pipeline that he supported.
    I'd say the main thing he wants is to dominate news cycle.
    It might be dominating in general he is addicted to. He cannot get enough of either power or the visible display of power, and he feels the need to claim brilliance and success in every field of human endeavour imaginable, whilst being told he is handsome and great at golf to boot.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,450
    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    Ok. If this keeps happening - let me know and I'll give you a list of people to have little chats with your wife about.
    Many, many years ago, long before I met the girl who is now Mrs Cole, I had a girl-friend who I then thought likely to be Mrs Cole. And we discussed the possibility and she thought so too.
    However as romances at that stage often do, it collapsed. She met someone else at Uni and .....many of us have been there.
    At our somewhat emotional parting I promised, as one does, that if she ever needed me, I'd be there. Which got a scornful reply.
    Fifty or so years later I suddenly started to see her, "just round the corner"; to have visions of her. I couldn't get her out of my my mind. Went on for a couple of months. Then she vanished.
    Later I went on one of the genealogical research sites, checked on her and found that when she'd 'appeared to me' she'd been dying in Canada, divorced from the chap she left me for.
    Weird.
    Amazing story, Thankyou

    You might be interested to know this is an established phenomenon. It’s called a “crisis apparition”
    I had something similar, I guess. 'The One'. Deeply suffering from depression. Eventually she got so far away from me - psychologically - that we split up.

    Years later I kept thinking "Oh was that....? Oh, maybe not.". Month after month, week after week - probably for around an intense three months or so.

    Then discovered around that time she'd climbed up to a cliff at night and above a disused quarry and thrown herself off into the dark, dank, rancid water in the pit.

    I still think of how wretched that last night - clambering up the wind-swept path, rasping branches, knowing what she intended - must have been and it breaks my heart each time.
    Wow

    There are many such stories. It’s one of the most intriguing mysteries in the paranormal multiverse

    “A “crisis apparition” occurs when a person perceives a vision, presence, or communication from a loved one at the exact moment that person is experiencing a significant crisis, such as injury, danger, or death, even though they are physically far away.

    Crisis apparitions are well-documented in paranormal and psychological literature, often cited as evidence of some unexplained connection between people who share a deep emotional bond. Some theories suggest they may be related to telepathy, quantum entanglement of consciousness, or even just subconscious perception and coincidence.”
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,701
    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    Ok. If this keeps happening - let me know and I'll give you a list of people to have little chats with your wife about.
    Many, many years ago, long before I met the girl who is now Mrs Cole, I had a girl-friend who I then thought likely to be Mrs Cole. And we discussed the possibility and she thought so too.
    However as romances at that stage often do, it collapsed. She met someone else at Uni and .....many of us have been there.
    At our somewhat emotional parting I promised, as one does, that if she ever needed me, I'd be there. Which got a scornful reply.
    Fifty or so years later I suddenly started to see her, "just round the corner"; to have visions of her. I couldn't get her out of my my mind. Went on for a couple of months. Then she vanished.
    Later I went on one of the genealogical research sites, checked on her and found that when she'd 'appeared to me' she'd been dying in Canada, divorced from the chap she left me for.
    Weird.
    Amazing story, Thankyou

    You might be interested to know this is an established phenomenon. It’s called a “crisis apparition”
    I had something similar, I guess. 'The One'. Deeply suffering from depression. Eventually she got so far away from me - psychologically - that we split up.

    Years later I kept thinking "Oh was that....? Oh, maybe not.". Month after month, week after week - probably for around an intense three months or so.

    Then discovered around that time she'd climbed up to a cliff at night and above a disused quarry and thrown herself off into the dark, dank, rancid water in the pit.

    I still think of how wretched that last night - clambering up the wind-swept path, rasping branches, knowing what she intended - must have been and it breaks my heart each time.
    Wow

    There are many such stories. It’s one of the most intriguing mysteries in the paranormal multiverse

    “A “crisis apparition” occurs when a person perceives a vision, presence, or communication from a loved one at the exact moment that person is experiencing a significant crisis, such as injury, danger, or death, even though they are physically far away.

    Crisis apparitions are well-documented in paranormal and psychological literature, often cited as evidence of some unexplained connection between people who share a deep emotional bond. Some theories suggest they may be related to telepathy, quantum entanglement of consciousness, or even just subconscious perception and coincidence.”
    You're already deep in the Vajrayana.
    But there are multiple maras and obstructions
    Patience. You're on the path. But some lifetimes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,603
    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,520

    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!

    I assume someone told him he was not given top billing on SABC news programmes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,450
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    Ok. If this keeps happening - let me know and I'll give you a list of people to have little chats with your wife about.
    Many, many years ago, long before I met the girl who is now Mrs Cole, I had a girl-friend who I then thought likely to be Mrs Cole. And we discussed the possibility and she thought so too.
    However as romances at that stage often do, it collapsed. She met someone else at Uni and .....many of us have been there.
    At our somewhat emotional parting I promised, as one does, that if she ever needed me, I'd be there. Which got a scornful reply.
    Fifty or so years later I suddenly started to see her, "just round the corner"; to have visions of her. I couldn't get her out of my my mind. Went on for a couple of months. Then she vanished.
    Later I went on one of the genealogical research sites, checked on her and found that when she'd 'appeared to me' she'd been dying in Canada, divorced from the chap she left me for.
    Weird.
    Amazing story, Thankyou

    You might be interested to know this is an established phenomenon. It’s called a “crisis apparition”
    I had something similar, I guess. 'The One'. Deeply suffering from depression. Eventually she got so far away from me - psychologically - that we split up.

    Years later I kept thinking "Oh was that....? Oh, maybe not.". Month after month, week after week - probably for around an intense three months or so.

    Then discovered around that time she'd climbed up to a cliff at night and above a disused quarry and thrown herself off into the dark, dank, rancid water in the pit.

    I still think of how wretched that last night - clambering up the wind-swept path, rasping branches, knowing what she intended - must have been and it breaks my heart each time.
    Wow

    There are many such stories. It’s one of the most intriguing mysteries in the paranormal multiverse

    “A “crisis apparition” occurs when a person perceives a vision, presence, or communication from a loved one at the exact moment that person is experiencing a significant crisis, such as injury, danger, or death, even though they are physically far away.

    Crisis apparitions are well-documented in paranormal and psychological literature, often cited as evidence of some unexplained connection between people who share a deep emotional bond. Some theories suggest they may be related to telepathy, quantum entanglement of consciousness, or even just subconscious perception and coincidence.”
    You're already deep in the Vajrayana.
    But there are multiple maras and obstructions
    Patience. You're on the path. But some lifetimes.
    My explanation is that we all swim in the same sea of consciousness. A vast glittering underground ocean, beautiful and unbounded - I glimpsed it once, in its whispering immensity, when I spelunked my psyche on ayahuasca

    @ohnotnow and @OldKingCole felt ripples in that sea
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,341
    edited February 2

    Americans don't abide aristocracy.

    https://x.com/RBReich/status/1886187851361943674

    I don't think Reich is right. Trump isn't showing the power of an oligarchy in America. Trump didn't just pointlessly impose tariffs on Canada because Silicon Valley or Wall Street clamoured for them, any more than Putin invaded Ukraine because some shadowy gangster-businessmen were begging him to.

    What Trump is showing is the power of mob rule led by a narcissistic moron who gets his views from the weirder parts of cable TV and can't bear to be out of the news for twenty seconds.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,450

    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!

    Much as I dislike Donald Trump’s Terrible Tariffs, he’s absolutely right on South Africa. Fuck South Africa
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,242
    Leon said:

    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!

    Much as I dislike Donald Trump’s Terrible Tariffs, he’s absolutely right on South Africa. Fuck South Africa
    I confess I am lost.

    Trump, if he stands for anything, stands for American isolation and an end to the 'US as world police'.

    So why does he give a fuck about this other country?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,242
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    Ok. If this keeps happening - let me know and I'll give you a list of people to have little chats with your wife about.
    Many, many years ago, long before I met the girl who is now Mrs Cole, I had a girl-friend who I then thought likely to be Mrs Cole. And we discussed the possibility and she thought so too.
    However as romances at that stage often do, it collapsed. She met someone else at Uni and .....many of us have been there.
    At our somewhat emotional parting I promised, as one does, that if she ever needed me, I'd be there. Which got a scornful reply.
    Fifty or so years later I suddenly started to see her, "just round the corner"; to have visions of her. I couldn't get her out of my my mind. Went on for a couple of months. Then she vanished.
    Later I went on one of the genealogical research sites, checked on her and found that when she'd 'appeared to me' she'd been dying in Canada, divorced from the chap she left me for.
    Weird.
    Amazing story, Thankyou

    You might be interested to know this is an established phenomenon. It’s called a “crisis apparition”
    I had something similar, I guess. 'The One'. Deeply suffering from depression. Eventually she got so far away from me - psychologically - that we split up.

    Years later I kept thinking "Oh was that....? Oh, maybe not.". Month after month, week after week - probably for around an intense three months or so.

    Then discovered around that time she'd climbed up to a cliff at night and above a disused quarry and thrown herself off into the dark, dank, rancid water in the pit.

    I still think of how wretched that last night - clambering up the wind-swept path, rasping branches, knowing what she intended - must have been and it breaks my heart each time.
    Wow

    There are many such stories. It’s one of the most intriguing mysteries in the paranormal multiverse

    “A “crisis apparition” occurs when a person perceives a vision, presence, or communication from a loved one at the exact moment that person is experiencing a significant crisis, such as injury, danger, or death, even though they are physically far away.

    Crisis apparitions are well-documented in paranormal and psychological literature, often cited as evidence of some unexplained connection between people who share a deep emotional bond. Some theories suggest they may be related to telepathy, quantum entanglement of consciousness, or even just subconscious perception and coincidence.”
    You're already deep in the Vajrayana.
    But there are multiple maras and obstructions
    Patience. You're on the path. But some lifetimes.
    My explanation is that we all swim in the same sea of consciousness. A vast glittering underground ocean, beautiful and unbounded - I glimpsed it once, in its whispering immensity, when I spelunked my psyche on ayahuasca

    @ohnotnow and @OldKingCole felt ripples in that sea
    See Colin Wilson.

    Much missed.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,488
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    kle4 said:

    Not been following the detail, but has any of this Canada stuff aided the government ratings there? The Liberals needed a big boost.

    Worth about five percentage points to the Liberals. However Canadian polling companies have very strong house effects. The company most favourable to the Liberals has the results more or less back to the last general election, while with others it's gone from wipeout to landslide.
    I also think that's why Pierre Polievre has hit back today against Trump to separate himself from this all. The CPC will still win but it won't be the thumping majority they were expecting. It's another oddity with Trump, surely he should have held off until his ally was in power and then rolled over the Canadian Tories with a very unfavorable deal.
    But what, exactly, does Trump want out of Canada?

    Trudeau rolled on immigration control pretty much immediately, so it isn't that.

    Trump claims it's about Fentanyl, but really, it's about a bilateral trade surplus that was created by the keystone pipeline that he supported.
    You're right, it's actually not defined what Trump wants from Canada other than fewer Canadian imports in general. I can understand why Trump would want to put up tariffs against China and maybe even the EU at a stretch but it doesn't make sense with Canada and Mexico at all and there isn't an endgame to this plan, all he's doing is raising gas prices by putting a 10% tariff on Canadian oil, drivers in northern US states won't thank him for that.

    I also think what this shows is that Trump 47 can't be talked down in the same way Trump 45 could, I'm sure there were plenty of people on the team suggesting a limited set of tariffs and setting out what they want to achieve with them etc... but what we got was unfiltered nonsense and then a 10% tariff on Canadian oil that will put gas prices up when Americans are screaming for them to come down.
    A 25% tariff on all Canadian products (including oil), and a 10% on Chinese products.

    Now, the Chinese one is on top of the previous set of tariffs, but given that most Chinese goods were exempt from the last ones, Trump has effectively chosen to put the highest level of tariffs on its most consistent ally.

    With Mexico, you get the feeling that he wants them ramp up border protection, against drugs and people. Of course, whether the Mexican government is able to do that - given the level of corruption and violence the drug gangs have created - is another matter. But at least you can see the ultimate out for them.

    But what is Canada supposed to do to get the US to remove the tariffs?

    That's what fundamentally makes this a bizarre -and probably self defeating- move. If the US said "jump" in private, then Canada would say "how high?" But publicly screwing them over the issue of... of... of... well, who the fuck knows... seems likely to achieve nothing more than making the Liberal electoral loss significantly less large than would otherwise be the case.

    And it is unlikely that Americans in the Midwest will thank him for the higher petrol prices either.
  • Leon said:

    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!

    Much as I dislike Donald Trump’s Terrible Tariffs, he’s absolutely right on South Africa. Fuck South Africa
    I confess I am lost.

    Trump, if he stands for anything, stands for American isolation and an end to the 'US as world police'.

    So why does he give a fuck about this other country?
    Are you trying to understand Trump's mind

    He is causing havoc so really reason is not something he understands

    And maybe we all need to.have a good night's rest

    There is always tomorrow's crazies to come along
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,963
    Leon said:

    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!

    Much as I dislike Donald Trump’s Terrible Tariffs, he’s absolutely right on South Africa. Fuck South Africa
    For comic value - Trudeau, early in his career as PM, referred to the attacks on white farmers in South Africa as systematic persecution. Which upset quite a few people. For a start, it opened the door to them claiming asylum. And they are the Wrong Kind of Asylum Seekers to certain people.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,453
    edited February 2
    Françoise Giroud "Ainsi commence le fascisme. il ne dit jamais son nom, il rampe, il flotte, quand il montre le bout de son nez, on dit: c'est lui? vous croyez? il ne faut rien exagérer! Et puis un jour on le prend dans la gueule et il est trop tard pour l'expulser."

    "And so fascism begins. It never says its own name, it crawls, it hovers. When it shows its face, people say: Is it really here? You think so? We shouldn't exaggerate! And then one day, we are hit by fascism and it's too late to evict it."
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,963

    Leon said:

    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!

    Much as I dislike Donald Trump’s Terrible Tariffs, he’s absolutely right on South Africa. Fuck South Africa
    I confess I am lost.

    Trump, if he stands for anything, stands for American isolation and an end to the 'US as world police'.

    So why does he give a fuck about this other country?
    Are you trying to understand Trump's mind

    He is causing havoc so really reason is not something he understands

    And maybe we all need to.have a good night's rest

    There is always tomorrow's crazies to come along
    The mistake is trying to understand the crazy in more detail than - "the disconnected gibbering of the guy at the end of the bar, on a bad Tuesday"

    Trying to find a pattern in random data has driven many people out of their minds.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,963
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    kle4 said:

    Not been following the detail, but has any of this Canada stuff aided the government ratings there? The Liberals needed a big boost.

    Worth about five percentage points to the Liberals. However Canadian polling companies have very strong house effects. The company most favourable to the Liberals has the results more or less back to the last general election, while with others it's gone from wipeout to landslide.
    I also think that's why Pierre Polievre has hit back today against Trump to separate himself from this all. The CPC will still win but it won't be the thumping majority they were expecting. It's another oddity with Trump, surely he should have held off until his ally was in power and then rolled over the Canadian Tories with a very unfavorable deal.
    But what, exactly, does Trump want out of Canada?

    Trudeau rolled on immigration control pretty much immediately, so it isn't that.

    Trump claims it's about Fentanyl, but really, it's about a bilateral trade surplus that was created by the keystone pipeline that he supported.
    You're right, it's actually not defined what Trump wants from Canada other than fewer Canadian imports in general. I can understand why Trump would want to put up tariffs against China and maybe even the EU at a stretch but it doesn't make sense with Canada and Mexico at all and there isn't an endgame to this plan, all he's doing is raising gas prices by putting a 10% tariff on Canadian oil, drivers in northern US states won't thank him for that.

    I also think what this shows is that Trump 47 can't be talked down in the same way Trump 45 could, I'm sure there were plenty of people on the team suggesting a limited set of tariffs and setting out what they want to achieve with them etc... but what we got was unfiltered nonsense and then a 10% tariff on Canadian oil that will put gas prices up when Americans are screaming for them to come down.
    A 25% tariff on all Canadian products (including oil), and a 10% on Chinese products.

    Now, the Chinese one is on top of the previous set of tariffs, but given that most Chinese goods were exempt from the last ones, Trump has effectively chosen to put the highest level of tariffs on its most consistent ally.

    With Mexico, you get the feeling that he wants them ramp up border protection, against drugs and people. Of course, whether the Mexican government is able to do that - given the level of corruption and violence the drug gangs have created - is another matter. But at least you can see the ultimate out for them.

    But what is Canada supposed to do to get the US to remove the tariffs?

    That's what fundamentally makes this a bizarre -and probably self defeating- move. If the US said "jump" in private, then Canada would say "how high?" But publicly screwing them over the issue of... of... of... well, who the fuck knows... seems likely to achieve nothing more than making the Liberal electoral loss significantly less large than would otherwise be the case.

    And it is unlikely that Americans in the Midwest will thank him for the higher petrol prices either.

    At the age of fifteen Doug and Dinsdale started attending the Ernest Pythagoras Primary School in Clerkenwell. When the Piranhas left school they were called up but were found by an Army Board to be too unstable even for National Service.

    Denied the opportunity to use their talents in the service of their country, they began to operate what they called 'The Operation'... They would select a victim and then threaten to beat him up if he paid the so-called protection money.

    Four months later they started another operation which they called 'The Other Operation'. In this racket they selected another victim and threatened not to beat him up if he didn't pay them.

    One month later they hit upon 'The Other Other Operation'. In this the victim was threatened that if he didn't pay them, they would beat him up. This for the Piranha brothers was the turning point.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 250

    Leon said:

    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!

    Much as I dislike Donald Trump’s Terrible Tariffs, he’s absolutely right on South Africa. Fuck South Africa
    I confess I am lost.

    Trump, if he stands for anything, stands for American isolation and an end to the 'US as world police'.

    So why does he give a fuck about this other country?
    white nationalism
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,591
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    kle4 said:

    Not been following the detail, but has any of this Canada stuff aided the government ratings there? The Liberals needed a big boost.

    Worth about five percentage points to the Liberals. However Canadian polling companies have very strong house effects. The company most favourable to the Liberals has the results more or less back to the last general election, while with others it's gone from wipeout to landslide.
    I also think that's why Pierre Polievre has hit back today against Trump to separate himself from this all. The CPC will still win but it won't be the thumping majority they were expecting. It's another oddity with Trump, surely he should have held off until his ally was in power and then rolled over the Canadian Tories with a very unfavorable deal.
    But what, exactly, does Trump want out of Canada?

    Trudeau rolled on immigration control pretty much immediately, so it isn't that.

    Trump claims it's about Fentanyl, but really, it's about a bilateral trade surplus that was created by the keystone pipeline that he supported.
    You're right, it's actually not defined what Trump wants from Canada other than fewer Canadian imports in general. I can understand why Trump would want to put up tariffs against China and maybe even the EU at a stretch but it doesn't make sense with Canada and Mexico at all and there isn't an endgame to this plan, all he's doing is raising gas prices by putting a 10% tariff on Canadian oil, drivers in northern US states won't thank him for that.

    I also think what this shows is that Trump 47 can't be talked down in the same way Trump 45 could, I'm sure there were plenty of people on the team suggesting a limited set of tariffs and setting out what they want to achieve with them etc... but what we got was unfiltered nonsense and then a 10% tariff on Canadian oil that will put gas prices up when Americans are screaming for them to come down.
    A 25% tariff on all Canadian products (including oil), and a 10% on Chinese products.

    Now, the Chinese one is on top of the previous set of tariffs, but given that most Chinese goods were exempt from the last ones, Trump has effectively chosen to put the highest level of tariffs on its most consistent ally.

    With Mexico, you get the feeling that he wants them ramp up border protection, against drugs and people. Of course, whether the Mexican government is able to do that - given the level of corruption and violence the drug gangs have created - is another matter. But at least you can see the ultimate out for them.

    But what is Canada supposed to do to get the US to remove the tariffs?

    That's what fundamentally makes this a bizarre -and probably self defeating- move. If the US said "jump" in private, then Canada would say "how high?" But publicly screwing them over the issue of... of... of... well, who the fuck knows... seems likely to achieve nothing more than making the Liberal electoral loss significantly less large than would otherwise be the case.

    And it is unlikely that Americans in the Midwest will thank him for the higher petrol prices either.
    "But what is Canada supposed to do to get the US to remove the tariffs?"

    Become the 51st State.

    Oddly, never any talk of Mexico becoming the next state to join the USA.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,542
    edited February 3

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So the PB consensus seems to be we should just let Trump invade Greenland...

    Macron is dealing with that
    What is it to do with Macron ?

    It's Danish
    Macron suggested sending EU troops to defend Greenland.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/trump-suffers-humiliating-greenland-backlash-as-macron-readies-eu-army-to-defend-island/ar-AA1y3oHg?ocid=BingNewsVerp
    He's as mad as Trump

    And what EU army?
    Only 6% of Greenlanders want to join the US. Denmark, and perhaps the rest of the EU, would see that as a Falklands moment. And so should we - it's a territorial conquest against the will of those who live there.

    Canada and Denmark are our friends - not Trump's America. If Canada reaches out to the UK, Australia, NZ, the EU and asks for assistance, then we should not be the ones to hesitate.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,242
    Article of the day if not the year so far.

    https://edconway.substack.com/p/america-still-needs-canadian-oil
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,643
    Any chance of us getting Canadian oil at lower prices?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,488

    Leon said:

    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!

    Much as I dislike Donald Trump’s Terrible Tariffs, he’s absolutely right on South Africa. Fuck South Africa
    For comic value - Trudeau, early in his career as PM, referred to the attacks on white farmers in South Africa as systematic persecution. Which upset quite a few people. For a start, it opened the door to them claiming asylum. And they are the Wrong Kind of Asylum Seekers to certain people.
    They might be the right kind of asylum seeker for Mr Trump.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,488
    Andy_JS said:

    Any chance of us getting Canadian oil at lower prices?
    Sadly, the cheap Canadian oil is all on the West Coast, mostly out of Alberta. So it is likely that the Chinese will be the principle benificiaries.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,450
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So the PB consensus seems to be we should just let Trump invade Greenland...

    Macron is dealing with that
    What is it to do with Macron ?

    It's Danish
    Macron suggested sending EU troops to defend Greenland.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/trump-suffers-humiliating-greenland-backlash-as-macron-readies-eu-army-to-defend-island/ar-AA1y3oHg?ocid=BingNewsVerp
    He's as mad as Trump

    And what EU army?
    Only 6% of Greenlanders want to join the US. Denmark, and perhaps the rest of the EU, would see that as a Falklands moment. And so should we - it's a territorial conquest against the will of those who live there.

    Canada and Denmark are our friends - not Trump's America. If Canada reaches out to the UK, Australia, NZ, the EU and asks for assistance, then we should not be the ones to hesitate.
    Vance on Greenland

    https://x.com/behizytweets/status/1886085823151616252?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    They really mean it. They’re obviously going to take it

    SCENES

    I don’t think the Danes or the French will do anything
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,643
    edited February 3
    Leon said:

    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!

    Much as I dislike Donald Trump’s Terrible Tariffs, he’s absolutely right on South Africa. Fuck South Africa
    Of course they stepped away from the abyss recently with the formation of a coalition involving the pro-west liberal Democratic Alliance. Another ANC majority government would have been a calamity.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,488
    That's pretty much exactly what I've been saying! (Only with more charts.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,488
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So the PB consensus seems to be we should just let Trump invade Greenland...

    Macron is dealing with that
    What is it to do with Macron ?

    It's Danish
    Macron suggested sending EU troops to defend Greenland.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/trump-suffers-humiliating-greenland-backlash-as-macron-readies-eu-army-to-defend-island/ar-AA1y3oHg?ocid=BingNewsVerp
    He's as mad as Trump

    And what EU army?
    Only 6% of Greenlanders want to join the US. Denmark, and perhaps the rest of the EU, would see that as a Falklands moment. And so should we - it's a territorial conquest against the will of those who live there.

    Canada and Denmark are our friends - not Trump's America. If Canada reaches out to the UK, Australia, NZ, the EU and asks for assistance, then we should not be the ones to hesitate.
    Vance on Greenland

    https://x.com/behizytweets/status/1886085823151616252?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    They really mean it. They’re obviously going to take it

    SCENES

    I don’t think the Danes or the French will do anything
    That's proper gangster shit.

    And it is hard to see how it doesn't end up with the world as a whole getting poorer if the US starts doing this kind of thing.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,453
    Leon said:
    VP Vance on Greenland
    "It's really important to our national security. There are sea lanes there that the Chinese use, that the Russians use, that quite frankly, Denmark, which controls Greenland, is not doing its job, and it's not being a good ally."

    Told you, @Taz

    Arctic sea lanes
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,384


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    9m

    Department of Education is, per sources, rumored to be the next Elon target. Scope of the purge not known but fear is a wind down EO is coming

    Trump closing the Department of Education and returning the lot to the states was predicted before the election. It's a Project 2025 thing and there is no reason to suppose Trump himself gives a damn.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,384
    Nigelb said:

    Barnesian said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Barnesian said:

    kjh said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
    Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.

    "But there's a lab there in that very city!"

    🤔
    Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
    Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
    The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68.
    10 followed by 68 zeros.

    To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe.
    And 10^57 atoms in a typical star.
    So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe.
    10 followed by 80 zeros.

    That's a lot.

    It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands.
    Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
    What odds would PB numerates assign to my Tony Martin miracle?
    Not particularly long odds.
    As you say, you’ve had similar conversations about other rather elderly individuals, who haven’t died.

    You’re far less likely to be struck by lightning, which we know isn’t a miracle, but still manages to happen to people.

    A better way of thinking about it is “how likely is it that someone in the U.K. happens to be talking about someone moderately well known, on the day they die ?”
    Extremely likely, I think.
    Indeed. And I had a hole in one in Sept 21. That's enormously unlikely. Even if you play golf.

    I wonder what the odds are of living a life without any unbelievably long shot things happening to you? Must be astronomical.
    Ok so if you play golf once a week for twenty years that’s roughly 1000 rounds. Assuming at least one par three and also assuming you are able to hit the green on said par three then the odds would on you getting lucky at least once surely? Are there any stats on this out there?
    There are. Most recreational golfers never do it but it's a sizeable minority who do.
    I have once. A genuine hole in one across water, about 150 yards.
    I kept quiet about it.
    Had I ever played golf, I'm not sure I'd admit to it.
    Rory McIlroy won the Pebble Beach Pro-Am a couple of hours ago. Both he and runner-up Shane Lowry scored holes-in-one. Spooky, eh.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,615
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:
    VP Vance on Greenland
    "It's really important to our national security. There are sea lanes there that the Chinese use, that the Russians use, that quite frankly, Denmark, which controls Greenland, is not doing its job, and it's not being a good ally."

    Told you, @Taz

    Arctic sea lanes
    Interesting.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,914
    Literally nobody in the US defence establishment has been talking about the necessity of Greenlandic annexation. This is essentially Trump deciding that what Trump wants, Trump gets.

    Obviously the worse this gets, the worse it is for Western security in general.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,384
    Australia has had more than four feet of rain since Saturday. Four feet of rain!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4z2py8448o

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,643
    Is Trump really going to send troops into Greenland?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,488
    I have a theory: Donald Trump is determined to save the European car industry, and all these moves are his way of achieving that.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,238

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    I see the most-read article on the Spectator is a ridiculous Threnody for Empire

    Written by one raddled old tart who used to post on here called @SeanT. Who knows what misadventures he is on? Well, an archive link is here: https://archive.is/SCjpE

    Clement Freud, the Liberal MP, television cook and dogfood salesman, used to write for the Sporting Life, and often he'd pad out his column with cooking tips; for instance, if driving to Epsom for the Derby, wrap salmon fillets in tin foil and place them in the engine bay to be poached en route (as opposed to en croute). This Sean chap has pulled off the same trick in the Spectator with his cocktail recipe and poem.
    I did wonder what had happened to Colonel Blimp.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,643
    viewcode said:

    Bestubbled slut of our past nightmares, @SeanT, has also squeezed out a Speccie article on censored LLMs, which you can find here: https://archive.is/LAqjB

    You know you've made it when you get asked to sit for one of those Gazette portraits.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,238
    Carnyx said:

    Gadfly said:

    FPT...

    Carnyx said:

    Gadfly said:

    "A woman still waiting for her father's funeral seven weeks after his death says the new certification system is "awful"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyn8lv4g00o

    My brother-in-law has been in a similar situation. In his case, an interim death certificate made a funeral possible after 4 weeks, but he cannot proceed with administrating the estate because the solicitors will not release the Will until a full certificate has been issued.
    I rather think the solicitor is fibbing about releasing the will - though your b-i-l can't do much, there's no reason not to let him see the will as such. If he is an executor he has every right, not least because of the likelihood of funeral and burial wishes. Of course banks won't release money etc till the death cert is out, but he can at least see what's what.
    I fully agree, not least because my brother-in-law is the sole survivor and executor. Somewhat bizarrely, he can apply for probate using the interim certificate, but of course he needs the will, which the solicitor will not release without the full certificate.

    My understanding is that the coroner has indicated that the full certificate will be released imminently, but I do feel this amounts to an unintended consequence of the new legislation.
    Indeed.

    I'm surprised none of our assorted legal eagles on PB have commented on this solicitor notion that they can sit on the will like bloody dinosaurs* and taking about as long to hatch.

    *Large, non-avian kind.
    We were thoroughly f*cked over by our initial solicitor, who had been family solicitor for many years.

    Delay, delay, delay, charges, incomplete information.

    It was complex and there were arguments, however in the end we had to move it all to another solicitor.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,453
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    Ok. If this keeps happening - let me know and I'll give you a list of people to have little chats with your wife about.
    Many, many years ago, long before I met the girl who is now Mrs Cole, I had a girl-friend who I then thought likely to be Mrs Cole. And we discussed the possibility and she thought so too.
    However as romances at that stage often do, it collapsed. She met someone else at Uni and .....many of us have been there.
    At our somewhat emotional parting I promised, as one does, that if she ever needed me, I'd be there. Which got a scornful reply.
    Fifty or so years later I suddenly started to see her, "just round the corner"; to have visions of her. I couldn't get her out of my my mind. Went on for a couple of months. Then she vanished.
    Later I went on one of the genealogical research sites, checked on her and found that when she'd 'appeared to me' she'd been dying in Canada, divorced from the chap she left me for.
    Weird.
    Amazing story, Thankyou

    You might be interested to know this is an established phenomenon. It’s called a “crisis apparition”
    I had something similar, I guess. 'The One'. Deeply suffering from depression. Eventually she got so far away from me - psychologically - that we split up.

    Years later I kept thinking "Oh was that....? Oh, maybe not.". Month after month, week after week - probably for around an intense three months or so.

    Then discovered around that time she'd climbed up to a cliff at night and above a disused quarry and thrown herself off into the dark, dank, rancid water in the pit.

    I still think of how wretched that last night - clambering up the wind-swept path, rasping branches, knowing what she intended - must have been and it breaks my heart each time.
    Wow

    There are many such stories. It’s one of the most intriguing mysteries in the paranormal multiverse

    “A “crisis apparition” occurs when a person perceives a vision, presence, or communication from a loved one at the exact moment that person is experiencing a significant crisis, such as injury, danger, or death, even though they are physically far away.

    Crisis apparitions are well-documented in paranormal and psychological literature, often cited as evidence of some unexplained connection between people who share a deep emotional bond. Some theories suggest they may be related to telepathy, quantum entanglement of consciousness, or even just subconscious perception and coincidence.”
    You're already deep in the Vajrayana.
    But there are multiple maras and obstructions
    Patience. You're on the path. But some lifetimes.
    My explanation is that we all swim in the same sea of consciousness. A vast glittering underground ocean, beautiful and unbounded - I glimpsed it once, in its whispering immensity, when I spelunked my psyche on ayahuasca

    @ohnotnow and @OldKingCole felt ripples in that sea
    Jung got there before you: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_unconscious
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,238

    pigeon said:

    I mean, seriously, is there a single futurist or forecaster who, say, ten years ago, had the US becoming the enemy of the free West and no longer allied with democracies across the Commonwealth and EU?

    This Trump/Vance shit is off the scale.

    Nine years ago, maybe.

    Trump I started with various threats to Europe, and suspicions that he was in hoc to Russian money.

    Sadly the democracies did nothing, really, to respond or to prepare for Trump II.

    We are returning - at least for four years - to the 19th century, when the U.S. was an isolationist rival to other Great Powers.

    It will be interesting to see how Trump treats the four American “deputies”: UK, Japan, Australia and Israel.
    AIUI the UK Government is relying on the fact that we don't run a large trade surplus with the US to escape being lashed out at, but it's probably only a matter of time before something goes wrong.
    What can go wrong? Well, most people miss that Trump uses tariffs for two quite different purposes. The first is to correct what he sees as unfair trade, and we should be all right there, although there is a risk around his misperception of VAT.

    But the second is simply to extort or compel countries to obey Trump's commands, as seen with Colombia and repatriation flights, but also in the cases of Canada and Mexico where Trump has linked tariffs not only to trade but also the ingress of illegal drugs.
    The problem with dealing with Trump by complying is that Mr Trump is engaged mainly with the voices in his own head, and the lies he tells himself.

    Take Fentanyl "flooding in from Canada". It basically doesn't exist.

    In 2024, only about 43 pounds of fentanyl was seized at America's northern border. That compares with roughly 21,100 pounds seized at the southern border.
    https://www.npr.org/2025/02/02/nx-s1-5283957/fentanyl-trump-tariffs-china-canada-mexico

    He's like a 6 year old child frightened of the Sandman. The parents can look under the bed, but eventually the child will need to grow up and stop worrying.

    Trump is 78. He is either playing a weird game, or he needs a mental health practitioner. But none of his arse-licking yes men can do that.

    Put your seatbelts on. The USA going to hell in a hand cart will make waves !
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 399
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    kle4 said:

    Not been following the detail, but has any of this Canada stuff aided the government ratings there? The Liberals needed a big boost.

    Worth about five percentage points to the Liberals. However Canadian polling companies have very strong house effects. The company most favourable to the Liberals has the results more or less back to the last general election, while with others it's gone from wipeout to landslide.
    I also think that's why Pierre Polievre has hit back today against Trump to separate himself from this all. The CPC will still win but it won't be the thumping majority they were expecting. It's another oddity with Trump, surely he should have held off until his ally was in power and then rolled over the Canadian Tories with a very unfavorable deal.
    But what, exactly, does Trump want out of Canada?

    Trudeau rolled on immigration control pretty much immediately, so it isn't that.

    Trump claims it's about Fentanyl, but really, it's about a bilateral trade surplus that was created by the keystone pipeline that he supported.
    You're right, it's actually not defined what Trump wants from Canada other than fewer Canadian imports in general. I can understand why Trump would want to put up tariffs against China and maybe even the EU at a stretch but it doesn't make sense with Canada and Mexico at all and there isn't an endgame to this plan, all he's doing is raising gas prices by putting a 10% tariff on Canadian oil, drivers in northern US states won't thank him for that.

    I also think what this shows is that Trump 47 can't be talked down in the same way Trump 45 could, I'm sure there were plenty of people on the team suggesting a limited set of tariffs and setting out what they want to achieve with them etc... but what we got was unfiltered nonsense and then a 10% tariff on Canadian oil that will put gas prices up when Americans are screaming for them to come down.
    Project 2025

    "Similarly, the United States must work with Mexico, Canada, and other countries to develop a hemisphere-focused energy policy that will reduce reliance on distant and manipulable sources of fossil fuels, restore the free flow of energy among the hemisphere’s largest producers, and work together to increase energy production, including for nations that are looking for dramatic economic expansion."

    He's not even working to 'the plan'. He's way off base / off-piste / off his head.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 399

    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!

    Trump turns his gaze towards (white) South Africa
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,238
    Battlebus said:

    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!

    Trump turns his gaze towards (white) South Africa
    Are you sure this isn't Skummy Baby?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,243
    Now I don't like reflexive laughing at Americans, even in these times, but this one's a gem:

    https://edition.cnn.com/travel/american-woman-relocates-to-spain-but-returns-home/index.html
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,238
    carnforth said:

    Now I don't like reflexive laughing at Americans, even in these times, but this one's a gem:

    https://edition.cnn.com/travel/american-woman-relocates-to-spain-but-returns-home/index.html

    Corker:

    “Their lifestyle, the way they live, is very different from the Hispanic way of living,” she says.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,168
    rcs1000 said:

    I have a theory: Donald Trump is determined to save the European car industry, and all these moves are his way of achieving that.

    My alternate theory is that he's tasked to make China the new world hegemon, and the first move is to destroy every alliance the U.S. has.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,238
    edited February 3
    Chump:

    "The UK is way out of line."

    https://youtu.be/6X7CxwU7lsE?t=261
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    Morning all. Oh no, not another blazing Russian oil refinery! Volgograd this time.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1886240070405083529
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,238
    viewcode said:

    Bestubbled slut of our past nightmares, @SeanT, has also squeezed out a Speccie article on censored LLMs, which you can find here: https://archive.is/LAqjB

    Who is this guy?

    "The bots reflect the biases of their creators"

    If he keeps it up until he's 94 he might eventually get to 1+1=2 :smiley: .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,168
    Good thread on tariffs from the Canadian POV

    The tariffs are insane; everyone knows that if Congress voted in secret, Senate would be 95-5 against. This whole situation is based on the ignorance of one man, and the lack of fortitude among Congress to push back. It will harm all four countries. So what should Canada do? 1/x..
    https://x.com/Afinetheorem/status/1885830894365131235

    The analysis that a trade war will harm Canada disproportionally is probably correct, but the political pressures make their response inevitable anyway.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So the PB consensus seems to be we should just let Trump invade Greenland...

    Macron is dealing with that
    What is it to do with Macron ?

    It's Danish
    Macron suggested sending EU troops to defend Greenland.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/trump-suffers-humiliating-greenland-backlash-as-macron-readies-eu-army-to-defend-island/ar-AA1y3oHg?ocid=BingNewsVerp
    He's as mad as Trump

    And what EU army?
    Only 6% of Greenlanders want to join the US. Denmark, and perhaps the rest of the EU, would see that as a Falklands moment. And so should we - it's a territorial conquest against the will of those who live there.

    Canada and Denmark are our friends - not Trump's America. If Canada reaches out to the UK, Australia, NZ, the EU and asks for assistance, then we should not be the ones to hesitate.
    Vance on Greenland

    https://x.com/behizytweets/status/1886085823151616252?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    They really mean it. They’re obviously going to take it

    SCENES

    I don’t think the Danes or the French will do anything
    That's proper gangster shit.

    And it is hard to see how it doesn't end up with the world as a whole getting poorer if the US starts doing this kind of thing.
    I don't believe the Yanks are going to conquer Greenland, though if that turns out to be wishful thinking an attempted occupation could get very nasty, very quickly. Greenland is a relatively well armed society. What kind of mentalism an invading Yank army could end up indulging in should the locals start picking them off with rifles can only be guessed at.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,168
    edited February 3
    One wildcard - what happens if China were to decide this is a good moment for an economic blockade if Taiwan ?

    Unlikely, given their preference for stability, but not impossible.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,168
    As far as the whole benefit of the doubt thing is concerned, Trump is surprising on the downside.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,507
    Nigelb said:

    Good thread on tariffs from the Canadian POV

    The tariffs are insane; everyone knows that if Congress voted in secret, Senate would be 95-5 against. This whole situation is based on the ignorance of one man, and the lack of fortitude among Congress to push back. It will harm all four countries. So what should Canada do? 1/x..
    https://x.com/Afinetheorem/status/1885830894365131235

    The analysis that a trade war will harm Canada disproportionally is probably correct, but the political pressures make their response inevitable anyway.

    I saw a graph somewhere that these tariffs and their response are thought to add 0.5% of inflation to the US but more like 2-3% for Canada and Mexico. 0.5% probably is small enough that it doesn't really affect the Trump that much...
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,861
    q

    Leon said:

    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!

    Much as I dislike Donald Trump’s Terrible Tariffs, he’s absolutely right on South Africa. Fuck South Africa
    I confess I am lost.

    Trump, if he stands for anything, stands for American isolation and an end to the 'US as world police'.

    So why does he give a fuck about this other country?
    Because his primary motivation is being a massive racist?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    edited February 3
    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good thread on tariffs from the Canadian POV

    The tariffs are insane; everyone knows that if Congress voted in secret, Senate would be 95-5 against. This whole situation is based on the ignorance of one man, and the lack of fortitude among Congress to push back. It will harm all four countries. So what should Canada do? 1/x..
    https://x.com/Afinetheorem/status/1885830894365131235

    The analysis that a trade war will harm Canada disproportionally is probably correct, but the political pressures make their response inevitable anyway.

    I saw a graph somewhere that these tariffs and their response are thought to add 0.5% of inflation to the US but more like 2-3% for Canada and Mexico. 0.5% probably is small enough that it doesn't really affect the Trump that much...
    The US is the much larger economy. So 70% of exports from Canada and Mexico are going to the US, but 70% of us oil and gas (Canada’s biggest export), is domestically produced in the US. It’s actually a big problem for those two smaller countries.

    I think, as much as you can think much about anything with a maverick like Trump around, that he’s looking for leverage in other areas such as immigration control or regulatory changes.

    The extra Chinese tariffs make more sense from an economic point of view.

    There’s a rumour around that Canada is considering closing their airspace to US aircraft transiting, which would make flights from London to LA about two hours longer.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,506

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    kle4 said:

    Not been following the detail, but has any of this Canada stuff aided the government ratings there? The Liberals needed a big boost.

    Worth about five percentage points to the Liberals. However Canadian polling companies have very strong house effects. The company most favourable to the Liberals has the results more or less back to the last general election, while with others it's gone from wipeout to landslide.
    I also think that's why Pierre Polievre has hit back today against Trump to separate himself from this all. The CPC will still win but it won't be the thumping majority they were expecting. It's another oddity with Trump, surely he should have held off until his ally was in power and then rolled over the Canadian Tories with a very unfavorable deal.
    But what, exactly, does Trump want out of Canada?

    Trudeau rolled on immigration control pretty much immediately, so it isn't that.

    Trump claims it's about Fentanyl, but really, it's about a bilateral trade surplus that was created by the keystone pipeline that he supported.
    I think he wants a physical empire and not just an economic one. Canada is squidgy, lots of oil, the right colour people and similar culture.
    Yet, just a Putin found, beating up on a smaller neighbour tends to turn its population against you.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,618
    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So the PB consensus seems to be we should just let Trump invade Greenland...

    Macron is dealing with that
    What is it to do with Macron ?

    It's Danish
    Macron suggested sending EU troops to defend Greenland.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/trump-suffers-humiliating-greenland-backlash-as-macron-readies-eu-army-to-defend-island/ar-AA1y3oHg?ocid=BingNewsVerp
    He's as mad as Trump

    And what EU army?
    Only 6% of Greenlanders want to join the US. Denmark, and perhaps the rest of the EU, would see that as a Falklands moment. And so should we - it's a territorial conquest against the will of those who live there.

    Canada and Denmark are our friends - not Trump's America. If Canada reaches out to the UK, Australia, NZ, the EU and asks for assistance, then we should not be the ones to hesitate.
    Vance on Greenland

    https://x.com/behizytweets/status/1886085823151616252?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    They really mean it. They’re obviously going to take it

    SCENES

    I don’t think the Danes or the French will do anything
    That's proper gangster shit.

    And it is hard to see how it doesn't end up with the world as a whole getting poorer if the US starts doing this kind of thing.
    I don't believe the Yanks are going to conquer Greenland, though if that turns out to be wishful thinking an attempted occupation could get very nasty, very quickly. Greenland is a relatively well armed society. What kind of mentalism an invading Yank army could end up indulging in should the locals start picking them off with rifles can only be guessed at.
    Trump and the USA are sending out a message to word leaders everywhere: grab whatever you want.

    This is a vast change from the consensus of the last eighty years, and one that is exceptionally dangerous for the world.

    Yet we still get the Trump and GOP shills on here. Including ones who pretend to favour Ukraine...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,618
    I'm just reading "Live and Let Die". I think I read it when I was a teenager, but did not think much of any of Fleming's stories. I much preferred the likes of Tom Clancy and Dale Brown.

    But I'm really enjoying reading it again. It's surprising how attitudes to things can change as you age. Or perhaps the film version had altered my perception of the (quite different) book...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,506
    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good thread on tariffs from the Canadian POV

    The tariffs are insane; everyone knows that if Congress voted in secret, Senate would be 95-5 against. This whole situation is based on the ignorance of one man, and the lack of fortitude among Congress to push back. It will harm all four countries. So what should Canada do? 1/x..
    https://x.com/Afinetheorem/status/1885830894365131235

    The analysis that a trade war will harm Canada disproportionally is probably correct, but the political pressures make their response inevitable anyway.

    I saw a graph somewhere that these tariffs and their response are thought to add 0.5% of inflation to the US but more like 2-3% for Canada and Mexico. 0.5% probably is small enough that it doesn't really affect the Trump that much...
    The US is the much larger economy. So 70% of exports from Canada and Mexico are going to the US, but 70% of us oil and gas (Canada’s biggest export), is domestically produced in the US. It’s actually a big problem for those two smaller countries.

    I think, as much as you can think much about anything with a maverick like Trump around, that he’s looking for leverage in other areas such as immigration control or regulatory changes.

    The extra Chinese tariffs make more sense from an economic point of view.

    There’s a rumour around that Canada is considering closing their airspace to US aircraft transiting, which would make flights from London to LA about two hours longer.
    A shame they can’t charge them a transit fee. I see one of the Canadian provinces is already going to do that for tolls on the road for US trucks.

    Judging from social media a good proportion of Canadians are now hating up on their southern neighbour
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,506

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So the PB consensus seems to be we should just let Trump invade Greenland...

    Macron is dealing with that
    What is it to do with Macron ?

    It's Danish
    Macron suggested sending EU troops to defend Greenland.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/trump-suffers-humiliating-greenland-backlash-as-macron-readies-eu-army-to-defend-island/ar-AA1y3oHg?ocid=BingNewsVerp
    He's as mad as Trump

    And what EU army?
    Only 6% of Greenlanders want to join the US. Denmark, and perhaps the rest of the EU, would see that as a Falklands moment. And so should we - it's a territorial conquest against the will of those who live there.

    Canada and Denmark are our friends - not Trump's America. If Canada reaches out to the UK, Australia, NZ, the EU and asks for assistance, then we should not be the ones to hesitate.
    Vance on Greenland

    https://x.com/behizytweets/status/1886085823151616252?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    They really mean it. They’re obviously going to take it

    SCENES

    I don’t think the Danes or the French will do anything
    That's proper gangster shit.

    And it is hard to see how it doesn't end up with the world as a whole getting poorer if the US starts doing this kind of thing.
    I don't believe the Yanks are going to conquer Greenland, though if that turns out to be wishful thinking an attempted occupation could get very nasty, very quickly. Greenland is a relatively well armed society. What kind of mentalism an invading Yank army could end up indulging in should the locals start picking them off with rifles can only be guessed at.
    Trump and the USA are sending out a message to word leaders everywhere: grab whatever you want.

    This is a vast change from the consensus of the last eighty years, and one that is exceptionally dangerous for the world.

    Yet we still get the Trump and GOP shills on here. Including ones who pretend to favour Ukraine...
    The minute Sean started on about how good Trump was going to be, it was always going to turn to s**t
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,399
    MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    Now I don't like reflexive laughing at Americans, even in these times, but this one's a gem:

    https://edition.cnn.com/travel/american-woman-relocates-to-spain-but-returns-home/index.html

    Corker:

    “Their lifestyle, the way they live, is very different from the Hispanic way of living,” she says.
    As an alleged regular visitor to Spain, you'd have thought she would have noticed most of those things. I know living somewhere is different to being on holiday, but you'd have thought she would have noticed the shops being closed in the afternoon, and restaurants not opening until late. Also, if she wanted to move further south for better weather, why not sell up and move?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,618
    kamski said:

    q

    Leon said:

    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!

    Much as I dislike Donald Trump’s Terrible Tariffs, he’s absolutely right on South Africa. Fuck South Africa
    I confess I am lost.

    Trump, if he stands for anything, stands for American isolation and an end to the 'US as world police'.

    So why does he give a fuck about this other country?
    Because his primary motivation is being a massive racist?
    I'm unsure Trump is a racist in the traditional sense. I think he's more like a narcissistic mafia don whose only interests beyond himself are his family.

    But some of the people around him? Quite possibly, yes.

    Also, don't discount a massive amount of misogyny in the new regime. Especially from the likes of Musk, who just wants women to be baby-breeding machines.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,243
    Donald Trump has registered with Reform.

    (In 1999)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_Party_of_the_United_States_of_America
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,861
    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good thread on tariffs from the Canadian POV

    The tariffs are insane; everyone knows that if Congress voted in secret, Senate would be 95-5 against. This whole situation is based on the ignorance of one man, and the lack of fortitude among Congress to push back. It will harm all four countries. So what should Canada do? 1/x..
    https://x.com/Afinetheorem/status/1885830894365131235

    The analysis that a trade war will harm Canada disproportionally is probably correct, but the political pressures make their response inevitable anyway.

    I saw a graph somewhere that these tariffs and their response are thought to add 0.5% of inflation to the US but more like 2-3% for Canada and Mexico. 0.5% probably is small enough that it doesn't really affect the Trump that much...
    The US is the much larger economy. So 70% of exports from Canada and Mexico are going to the US, but 70% of us oil and gas (Canada’s biggest export), is domestically produced in the US. It’s actually a big problem for those two smaller countries.

    I think, as much as you can think much about anything with a maverick like Trump around, that he’s looking for leverage in other areas such as immigration control or regulatory changes.

    The extra Chinese tariffs make more sense from an economic point of view.

    There’s a rumour around that Canada is considering closing their airspace to US aircraft transiting, which would make flights from London to LA about two hours longer.
    A reminder that "maverick" usually translates as far right racist nutjob these days.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,507
    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain to me why Labour are making noises about having a closer trade relationship with the EU just as Trump is saddling up to hit the EU with gigantic tariffs which he hasn't yet said will be applied to the UK? I don't understand this thinking at all, surely just staying where we are with a tariff free trade deal with the EU and no formal trade deal with the US (and no punitive tariff regime) is the best possible move. Anything that antagonises Trump by moving closer to the EU and results in similar tariffs to Canada being applied to our US trade and then being involved in retaliatory ones will result in a recession regardless of what minute gains there might be in having a a closer relationship to the EU.

    Like it or not, Trump is the only game in town right now and by luck or by design we've managed to escape his immediate ire, why trade that away for no gain?

    I think Trump will also hit us with tariffs regardless. We have a trade surplus with US so he will think we are taking advantage of him. Plus Musk hates the UK and Starmer.

    I'd be fine with the UK govt hosting lots of meetings at his golf club though. Much cheaper than abandoning a closer trading relationship with the EU!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good thread on tariffs from the Canadian POV

    The tariffs are insane; everyone knows that if Congress voted in secret, Senate would be 95-5 against. This whole situation is based on the ignorance of one man, and the lack of fortitude among Congress to push back. It will harm all four countries. So what should Canada do? 1/x..
    https://x.com/Afinetheorem/status/1885830894365131235

    The analysis that a trade war will harm Canada disproportionally is probably correct, but the political pressures make their response inevitable anyway.

    I saw a graph somewhere that these tariffs and their response are thought to add 0.5% of inflation to the US but more like 2-3% for Canada and Mexico. 0.5% probably is small enough that it doesn't really affect the Trump that much...
    The US is the much larger economy. So 70% of exports from Canada and Mexico are going to the US, but 70% of us oil and gas (Canada’s biggest export), is domestically produced in the US. It’s actually a big problem for those two smaller countries.

    I think, as much as you can think much about anything with a maverick like Trump around, that he’s looking for leverage in other areas such as immigration control or regulatory changes.

    The extra Chinese tariffs make more sense from an economic point of view.

    There’s a rumour around that Canada is considering closing their airspace to US aircraft transiting, which would make flights from London to LA about two hours longer.
    A shame they can’t charge them a transit fee. I see one of the Canadian provinces is already going to do that for tolls on the road for US trucks.

    Judging from social media a good proportion of Canadians are now hating up on their southern neighbour
    Canadians didn’t particularly like Trump before this week, but they definitely don’t now.

    I can understand tariffs on Mexico, they’re a much lower-cost and lower-regulation economy, that’s exporting good American jobs and sending back unskilled immigrants and drugs. But hitting on Canada does seem a little out of place. Trudeau is on the way out, and the likely winner of the spring election is pretty conservative by Canadian standards.

    There is also the issue of the Canadian Parliament being shut down at the moment, so Trudeau might find it difficult to actually do much about the tariffs in the short term. He doesn’t have the level of executive power that his counterpart south of the border possesses.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,861

    kamski said:

    q

    Leon said:

    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!

    Much as I dislike Donald Trump’s Terrible Tariffs, he’s absolutely right on South Africa. Fuck South Africa
    I confess I am lost.

    Trump, if he stands for anything, stands for American isolation and an end to the 'US as world police'.

    So why does he give a fuck about this other country?
    Because his primary motivation is being a massive racist?
    I'm unsure Trump is a racist in the traditional sense. I think he's more like a narcissistic mafia don whose only interests beyond himself are his family.

    But some of the people around him? Quite possibly, yes.

    Also, don't discount a massive amount of misogyny in the new regime. Especially from the likes of Musk, who just wants women to be baby-breeding machines.
    To be unsure you'd have to ignore all the many clearcut examples of him being racist stretching back to the 1970s
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,855
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    kle4 said:

    Not been following the detail, but has any of this Canada stuff aided the government ratings there? The Liberals needed a big boost.

    Worth about five percentage points to the Liberals. However Canadian polling companies have very strong house effects. The company most favourable to the Liberals has the results more or less back to the last general election, while with others it's gone from wipeout to landslide.
    I also think that's why Pierre Polievre has hit back today against Trump to separate himself from this all. The CPC will still win but it won't be the thumping majority they were expecting. It's another oddity with Trump, surely he should have held off until his ally was in power and then rolled over the Canadian Tories with a very unfavorable deal.
    But what, exactly, does Trump want out of Canada?

    Trudeau rolled on immigration control pretty much immediately, so it isn't that.

    Trump claims it's about Fentanyl, but really, it's about a bilateral trade surplus that was created by the keystone pipeline that he supported.
    You're right, it's actually not defined what Trump wants from Canada other than fewer Canadian imports in general. I can understand why Trump would want to put up tariffs against China and maybe even the EU at a stretch but it doesn't make sense with Canada and Mexico at all and there isn't an endgame to this plan, all he's doing is raising gas prices by putting a 10% tariff on Canadian oil, drivers in northern US states won't thank him for that.

    I also think what this shows is that Trump 47 can't be talked down in the same way Trump 45 could, I'm sure there were plenty of people on the team suggesting a limited set of tariffs and setting out what they want to achieve with them etc... but what we got was unfiltered nonsense and then a 10% tariff on Canadian oil that will put gas prices up when Americans are screaming for them to come down.
    Yes, I would agree with this. Even the Colombia tariff threat felt very focused toward 'a deal', but what does he actually want from Canada? I think Trump is obsessed by the US national debt, and is targeting Canada to try and improve the trade deficit, but I am really not sure how getting into this brouhaha solves it.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,741
    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    q

    Leon said:

    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!

    Much as I dislike Donald Trump’s Terrible Tariffs, he’s absolutely right on South Africa. Fuck South Africa
    I confess I am lost.

    Trump, if he stands for anything, stands for American isolation and an end to the 'US as world police'.

    So why does he give a fuck about this other country?
    Because his primary motivation is being a massive racist?
    I'm unsure Trump is a racist in the traditional sense. I think he's more like a narcissistic mafia don whose only interests beyond himself are his family.

    But some of the people around him? Quite possibly, yes.

    Also, don't discount a massive amount of misogyny in the new regime. Especially from the likes of Musk, who just wants women to be baby-breeding machines.
    To be unsure you'd have to ignore all the many clearcut examples of him being racist stretching back to the 1970s
    It's is very much that he would seem to be racist *in addition* to being a narcissistic mafia don.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,855
    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain to me why Labour are making noises about having a closer trade relationship with the EU just as Trump is saddling up to hit the EU with gigantic tariffs which he hasn't yet said will be applied to the UK? I don't understand this thinking at all, surely just staying where we are with a tariff free trade deal with the EU and no formal trade deal with the US (and no punitive tariff regime) is the best possible move. Anything that antagonises Trump by moving closer to the EU and results in similar tariffs to Canada being applied to our US trade and then being involved in retaliatory ones will result in a recession regardless of what minute gains there might be in having a a closer relationship to the EU.

    Like it or not, Trump is the only game in town right now and by luck or by design we've managed to escape his immediate ire, why trade that away for no gain?

    I think Trump will also hit us with tariffs regardless. We have a trade surplus with US so he will think we are taking advantage of him. Plus Musk hates the UK and Starmer.

    I'd be fine with the UK govt hosting lots of meetings at his golf club though. Much cheaper than abandoning a closer trading relationship with the EU!
    I thought we now have a trade deficit don't we? Probably fortunately in this instance if we do.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,238
    edited February 3

    kamski said:

    q

    Leon said:

    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!

    Much as I dislike Donald Trump’s Terrible Tariffs, he’s absolutely right on South Africa. Fuck South Africa
    I confess I am lost.

    Trump, if he stands for anything, stands for American isolation and an end to the 'US as world police'.

    So why does he give a fuck about this other country?
    Because his primary motivation is being a massive racist?
    I'm unsure Trump is a racist in the traditional sense. I think he's more like a narcissistic mafia don whose only interests beyond himself are his family.

    But some of the people around him? Quite possibly, yes.

    Also, don't discount a massive amount of misogyny in the new regime. Especially from the likes of Musk, who just wants women to be baby-breeding machines.
    Trump was forced to reach out of court settlements for excluding black people from renting apartments as far back as the 1st half of the 1970s.

    He is a massive racist.

    https://archive.is/20250111060456/https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/28/us/politics/donald-trump-housing-race.html#selection-4561.0-4561.88
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,837
    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain to me why Labour are making noises about having a closer trade relationship with the EU just as Trump is saddling up to hit the EU with gigantic tariffs which he hasn't yet said will be applied to the UK? I don't understand this thinking at all, surely just staying where we are with a tariff free trade deal with the EU and no formal trade deal with the US (and no punitive tariff regime) is the best possible move. Anything that antagonises Trump by moving closer to the EU and results in similar tariffs to Canada being applied to our US trade and then being involved in retaliatory ones will result in a recession regardless of what minute gains there might be in having a a closer relationship to the EU.

    Like it or not, Trump is the only game in town right now and by luck or by design we've managed to escape his immediate ire, why trade that away for no gain?

    I think Trump will also hit us with tariffs regardless. We have a trade surplus with US so he will think we are taking advantage of him. Plus Musk hates the UK and Starmer.

    I'd be fine with the UK govt hosting lots of meetings at his golf club though. Much cheaper than abandoning a closer trading relationship with the EU!
    Seeing as Cooper intends to make possession of any AI image generation tool illegal here wasn't that our comp adv over the EU ?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,861
    Q
    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good thread on tariffs from the Canadian POV

    The tariffs are insane; everyone knows that if Congress voted in secret, Senate would be 95-5 against. This whole situation is based on the ignorance of one man, and the lack of fortitude among Congress to push back. It will harm all four countries. So what should Canada do? 1/x..
    https://x.com/Afinetheorem/status/1885830894365131235

    The analysis that a trade war will harm Canada disproportionally is probably correct, but the political pressures make their response inevitable anyway.

    I saw a graph somewhere that these tariffs and their response are thought to add 0.5% of inflation to the US but more like 2-3% for Canada and Mexico. 0.5% probably is small enough that it doesn't really affect the Trump that much...
    But politically when prices go up in Canada everyone is going to blame Trump, whereas when prices go up in the US people will also blame Trump.

    And psychologically people notice the prices that rise a lot, and ignore the prices that don't. I'm assuming within that average 0.5% extra inflation there will be some items people buy that will have much bigger price increases
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,539

    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain to me why Labour are making noises about having a closer trade relationship with the EU just as Trump is saddling up to hit the EU with gigantic tariffs which he hasn't yet said will be applied to the UK? I don't understand this thinking at all, surely just staying where we are with a tariff free trade deal with the EU and no formal trade deal with the US (and no punitive tariff regime) is the best possible move. Anything that antagonises Trump by moving closer to the EU and results in similar tariffs to Canada being applied to our US trade and then being involved in retaliatory ones will result in a recession regardless of what minute gains there might be in having a a closer relationship to the EU.

    Like it or not, Trump is the only game in town right now and by luck or by design we've managed to escape his immediate ire, why trade that away for no gain?

    I think Trump will also hit us with tariffs regardless. We have a trade surplus with US so he will think we are taking advantage of him. Plus Musk hates the UK and Starmer.

    I'd be fine with the UK govt hosting lots of meetings at his golf club though. Much cheaper than abandoning a closer trading relationship with the EU!
    I thought we now have a trade deficit don't we? Probably fortunately in this instance if we do.
    Both countries record a small trade surplus because of varying measurement criteria. I would say the reality falls in between and US/UK goods trade is basically balanced. We do have a very large services surplus with the US, however, that is mostly due to US companies placing their non-US global/European/EMEA centres in the UK. The real services surplus is a lot smaller without this.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,861

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So the PB consensus seems to be we should just let Trump invade Greenland...

    Macron is dealing with that
    What is it to do with Macron ?

    It's Danish
    Macron suggested sending EU troops to defend Greenland.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/trump-suffers-humiliating-greenland-backlash-as-macron-readies-eu-army-to-defend-island/ar-AA1y3oHg?ocid=BingNewsVerp
    He's as mad as Trump

    And what EU army?
    If France gives Greenland a few nukes it might make Trump think twice.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,507

    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain to me why Labour are making noises about having a closer trade relationship with the EU just as Trump is saddling up to hit the EU with gigantic tariffs which he hasn't yet said will be applied to the UK? I don't understand this thinking at all, surely just staying where we are with a tariff free trade deal with the EU and no formal trade deal with the US (and no punitive tariff regime) is the best possible move. Anything that antagonises Trump by moving closer to the EU and results in similar tariffs to Canada being applied to our US trade and then being involved in retaliatory ones will result in a recession regardless of what minute gains there might be in having a a closer relationship to the EU.

    Like it or not, Trump is the only game in town right now and by luck or by design we've managed to escape his immediate ire, why trade that away for no gain?

    I think Trump will also hit us with tariffs regardless. We have a trade surplus with US so he will think we are taking advantage of him. Plus Musk hates the UK and Starmer.

    I'd be fine with the UK govt hosting lots of meetings at his golf club though. Much cheaper than abandoning a closer trading relationship with the EU!
    I thought we now have a trade deficit don't we? Probably fortunately in this instance if we do.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/uktradewiththeunitedstates2023/2023
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,534
    How much more evidence does Vance require to move the 25th Amendment and get rid of this inbecile? Surely we have had enough already.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,618
    MattW said:

    kamski said:

    q

    Leon said:

    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!

    Much as I dislike Donald Trump’s Terrible Tariffs, he’s absolutely right on South Africa. Fuck South Africa
    I confess I am lost.

    Trump, if he stands for anything, stands for American isolation and an end to the 'US as world police'.

    So why does he give a fuck about this other country?
    Because his primary motivation is being a massive racist?
    I'm unsure Trump is a racist in the traditional sense. I think he's more like a narcissistic mafia don whose only interests beyond himself are his family.

    But some of the people around him? Quite possibly, yes.

    Also, don't discount a massive amount of misogyny in the new regime. Especially from the likes of Musk, who just wants women to be baby-breeding machines.
    Trump was forced to reach out of court settlements for excluding black people from renting apartments as far back as the 1st half of the 1970s.

    He is a massive racist.

    https://archive.is/20250111060456/https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/28/us/politics/donald-trump-housing-race.html#selection-4561.0-4561.88
    Thanks. I was not actually aware of that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,539
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good thread on tariffs from the Canadian POV

    The tariffs are insane; everyone knows that if Congress voted in secret, Senate would be 95-5 against. This whole situation is based on the ignorance of one man, and the lack of fortitude among Congress to push back. It will harm all four countries. So what should Canada do? 1/x..
    https://x.com/Afinetheorem/status/1885830894365131235

    The analysis that a trade war will harm Canada disproportionally is probably correct, but the political pressures make their response inevitable anyway.

    I saw a graph somewhere that these tariffs and their response are thought to add 0.5% of inflation to the US but more like 2-3% for Canada and Mexico. 0.5% probably is small enough that it doesn't really affect the Trump that much...
    The US is the much larger economy. So 70% of exports from Canada and Mexico are going to the US, but 70% of us oil and gas (Canada’s biggest export), is domestically produced in the US. It’s actually a big problem for those two smaller countries.

    I think, as much as you can think much about anything with a maverick like Trump around, that he’s looking for leverage in other areas such as immigration control or regulatory changes.

    The extra Chinese tariffs make more sense from an economic point of view.

    There’s a rumour around that Canada is considering closing their airspace to US aircraft transiting, which would make flights from London to LA about two hours longer.
    A shame they can’t charge them a transit fee. I see one of the Canadian provinces is already going to do that for tolls on the road for US trucks.

    Judging from social media a good proportion of Canadians are now hating up on their southern neighbour
    Canadians didn’t particularly like Trump before this week, but they definitely don’t now.

    I can understand tariffs on Mexico, they’re a much lower-cost and lower-regulation economy, that’s exporting good American jobs and sending back unskilled immigrants and drugs. But hitting on Canada does seem a little out of place. Trudeau is on the way out, and the likely winner of the spring election is pretty conservative by Canadian standards.

    There is also the issue of the Canadian Parliament being shut down at the moment, so Trudeau might find it difficult to actually do much about the tariffs in the short term. He doesn’t have the level of executive power that his counterpart south of the border possesses.
    And the fentanyl giveaway programme that Trump (rightly) gets angry about is going to be dismantled by the CPC anyway. All he's doing I'd giving the Liberal party a chance at clinging on and maintaining their disaster policies. Targeting Canada is such an insane policy and to me proves that whatever else Trump might or might not do, he's going senile just in a different way to Biden.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,539
    Also, Berlin is a grey shithole. Do not recommend at all. The JW Marriott is nice though.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,238
    edited February 3
    The USAID (aiui their version of our ODA) website, and their Twitter account, has vanished:

    https://www.usaid.gov/

    https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2025/02/02/g-s1-46007/usaid-web-site-trump-state-department
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,194
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good thread on tariffs from the Canadian POV

    The tariffs are insane; everyone knows that if Congress voted in secret, Senate would be 95-5 against. This whole situation is based on the ignorance of one man, and the lack of fortitude among Congress to push back. It will harm all four countries. So what should Canada do? 1/x..
    https://x.com/Afinetheorem/status/1885830894365131235

    The analysis that a trade war will harm Canada disproportionally is probably correct, but the political pressures make their response inevitable anyway.

    I saw a graph somewhere that these tariffs and their response are thought to add 0.5% of inflation to the US but more like 2-3% for Canada and Mexico. 0.5% probably is small enough that it doesn't really affect the Trump that much...
    The US is the much larger economy. So 70% of exports from Canada and Mexico are going to the US, but 70% of us oil and gas (Canada’s biggest export), is domestically produced in the US. It’s actually a big problem for those two smaller countries.

    I think, as much as you can think much about anything with a maverick like Trump around, that he’s looking for leverage in other areas such as immigration control or regulatory changes.

    The extra Chinese tariffs make more sense from an economic point of view.

    There’s a rumour around that Canada is considering closing their airspace to US aircraft transiting, which would make flights from London to LA about two hours longer.
    A shame they can’t charge them a transit fee. I see one of the Canadian provinces is already going to do that for tolls on the road for US trucks.

    Judging from social media a good proportion of Canadians are now hating up on their southern neighbour
    Canadians didn’t particularly like Trump before this week, but they definitely don’t now.

    I can understand tariffs on Mexico, they’re a much lower-cost and lower-regulation economy, that’s exporting good American jobs and sending back unskilled immigrants and drugs. But hitting on Canada does seem a little out of place. Trudeau is on the way out, and the likely winner of the spring election is pretty conservative by Canadian standards.

    There is also the issue of the Canadian Parliament being shut down at the moment, so Trudeau might find it difficult to actually do much about the tariffs in the short term. He doesn’t have the level of executive power that his counterpart south of the border possesses.
    Some Canadian tariffs on the USA start immediately, others start in 21 days in order for suppliers to source supplies elsewhere. They have already been announced, so it seems that the Canadian parliament is not needed, though it would be pretty certain to pass them.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,618
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good thread on tariffs from the Canadian POV

    The tariffs are insane; everyone knows that if Congress voted in secret, Senate would be 95-5 against. This whole situation is based on the ignorance of one man, and the lack of fortitude among Congress to push back. It will harm all four countries. So what should Canada do? 1/x..
    https://x.com/Afinetheorem/status/1885830894365131235

    The analysis that a trade war will harm Canada disproportionally is probably correct, but the political pressures make their response inevitable anyway.

    I saw a graph somewhere that these tariffs and their response are thought to add 0.5% of inflation to the US but more like 2-3% for Canada and Mexico. 0.5% probably is small enough that it doesn't really affect the Trump that much...
    The US is the much larger economy. So 70% of exports from Canada and Mexico are going to the US, but 70% of us oil and gas (Canada’s biggest export), is domestically produced in the US. It’s actually a big problem for those two smaller countries.

    I think, as much as you can think much about anything with a maverick like Trump around, that he’s looking for leverage in other areas such as immigration control or regulatory changes.

    The extra Chinese tariffs make more sense from an economic point of view.

    There’s a rumour around that Canada is considering closing their airspace to US aircraft transiting, which would make flights from London to LA about two hours longer.
    A shame they can’t charge them a transit fee. I see one of the Canadian provinces is already going to do that for tolls on the road for US trucks.

    Judging from social media a good proportion of Canadians are now hating up on their southern neighbour
    Canadians didn’t particularly like Trump before this week, but they definitely don’t now.

    I can understand tariffs on Mexico, they’re a much lower-cost and lower-regulation economy, that’s exporting good American jobs and sending back unskilled immigrants and drugs. But hitting on Canada does seem a little out of place. Trudeau is on the way out, and the likely winner of the spring election is pretty conservative by Canadian standards.

    There is also the issue of the Canadian Parliament being shut down at the moment, so Trudeau might find it difficult to actually do much about the tariffs in the short term. He doesn’t have the level of executive power that his counterpart south of the border possesses.
    And the fentanyl giveaway programme that Trump (rightly) gets angry about is going to be dismantled by the CPC anyway. All he's doing I'd giving the Liberal party a chance at clinging on and maintaining their disaster policies. Targeting Canada is such an insane policy and to me proves that whatever else Trump might or might not do, he's going senile just in a different way to Biden.
    There is zero comparison with Biden. What Trump's already done in a couple of weeks is damaging America and the west much more than Biden managed in four years. And shits LOL at it because he's "owning the libs".

    Worse, Biden was surrounded by people who were often vaguely competent. Trump is surrounded by people who are willing to see the country and the world burn - just so long as they make money.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,151
    edited February 3
    MaxPB said:

    Also, Berlin is a grey shithole. Do not recommend at all. The JW Marriott is nice though.

    I was there in October year before last - I rather enjoyed it but it was sunny until about 1 hour before I left.

    Berlin airport doesn't help though..
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,194
    FF43 said:

    This is (statistically) interesting. Not a single person who voted Remain in YouGov's poll thought Brexit has had a positive impact. Usually you get a percent or two who, as it were, believe the moon landings never happened.

    https://bsky.app/profile/yougov.co.uk/post/3lgzlc3527c23

    Wow, what a poll, and not much better for the Leavers.

    Surely this must be a drag on Faragism. His signature and indeed sole policy move polls as an unmitigated failure.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,151
    DavidL said:

    How much more evidence does Vance require to move the 25th Amendment and get rid of this inbecile? Surely we have had enough already.

    At the moment Trump is a great person to blame for all the things that don't actually work out.

    Vance has plenty of time over the next 4 years to pull the rug from under Trump - no point doing it now when any forthcoming disasters from decisions can be pinned on Trump and used to justify pulling said rug...
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,861

    MattW said:

    kamski said:

    q

    Leon said:

    Trump turns his gaze towards South Africa:

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1886195198793032057

    South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!

    Much as I dislike Donald Trump’s Terrible Tariffs, he’s absolutely right on South Africa. Fuck South Africa
    I confess I am lost.

    Trump, if he stands for anything, stands for American isolation and an end to the 'US as world police'.

    So why does he give a fuck about this other country?
    Because his primary motivation is being a massive racist?
    I'm unsure Trump is a racist in the traditional sense. I think he's more like a narcissistic mafia don whose only interests beyond himself are his family.

    But some of the people around him? Quite possibly, yes.

    Also, don't discount a massive amount of misogyny in the new regime. Especially from the likes of Musk, who just wants women to be baby-breeding machines.
    Trump was forced to reach out of court settlements for excluding black people from renting apartments as far back as the 1st half of the 1970s.

    He is a massive racist.

    https://archive.is/20250111060456/https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/28/us/politics/donald-trump-housing-race.html#selection-4561.0-4561.88
    Thanks. I was not actually aware of that.
    Check out the full page ad he took out in the Daily News in 1989 calling for the death penalty to be brought back for the (innocent black) Central Park 5.

    Or his reaction to having a black man as his president - all that birther shit.

    There are loads of other examples of "textbook racism". It's just he says so much other bollocks that it's possible to lose track. That's part of how he operates - flood everywhere with so much shit that people don't stop to identify the individual turds.

This discussion has been closed.