Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
Even shuffling won’t give that level. Assume two packs start the same (I.e. in order of suites and numbers). How many manipulations take place in the shuffle? Quite plausible that you would get a match on those assumptions, given enough games and a small enough shuffle. The big numbers all assume completely random choice of cards.
Casinos use machines to shuffle, while magicians use their hands.
Wonder if Elon has his trusted people in the software... "fixing it'??
Why do these links with dots and the like no longer work.
It was the same with bondezegou’s link to Wikipedia about pandemics.
My Wikipedia link doesn’t work because the hyphen in it confused Vanilla, which seems to think URLs should not contain such things.
Here, these are BlueSky handles, but put on their own outside BlueSky, they don’t work as links. Instead, Vanilla interprets them as pointers to accounts here.
Found the page anyway, interesting. The Plague of Justinian sounded awful.
The whole period AD 500 to roughly AD 1000 seems disastrous for humanity in Eurasia. I’m surprised we, as Eurasians, survived without being replaced by Africans or East Asians.
Surely saidvplague also affected Asia and Africa? Enough trade links even then.
If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
Is this his Nurembirmingham rally?
Which (just about) works as a joke but a lot of people would take the remark seriously.
I would post the gold lift photo but that’s old hat, so instead here’s the beeb yesterday
"Donald Trump, standing on a platform many of whose policies were not dissimilar to what we put to the British people in that contract last July, has won this incredible victory and got off to the most amazing start." To applause and some cheers, he went on: "I hope and believe that many things that will happen in America will serve as an inspiration to us."
I mean, seriously, is there a single futurist or forecaster who, say, ten years ago, had the US becoming the enemy of the free West and no longer allied with democracies across the Commonwealth and EU?
This Trump/Vance shit is off the scale.
Nine years ago, maybe.
Trump I started with various threats to Europe, and suspicions that he was in hoc to Russian money.
Sadly the democracies did nothing, really, to respond or to prepare for Trump II.
We are returning - at least for four years - to the 19th century, when the U.S. was an isolationist rival to other Great Powers.
It will be interesting to see how Trump treats the four American “deputies”: UK, Japan, Australia and Israel.
AIUI the UK Government is relying on the fact that we don't run a large trade surplus with the US to escape being lashed out at, but it's probably only a matter of time before something goes wrong.
Here's a fact most Americans don't know: The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world. The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits. We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.
Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
Hmm, I see it is by order of the Province's Premier Mr Ford. I didn't realise that thge LCBO is the monopoly supplier of *all* [edit] imported alcohol in the Province, including to restaurants etc. if I understand it right. That's about 2/5 of the Canuck population. And they sell almost 1bn dollars (presumably the Canadian money and US billion) worth pa.
I suspect most in the US, including probably the president, underestimate the size of Canada’s (or indeed Ontario’s) GDP and population. The fact they talk of the 51st state, not the 51st to 60th states, is telling.
Good opportunity for English winemakers. As a fellow cool climate wine culture Canadians should have a natural affinity for our stuff. Scandinavian liquor monopolies have been quite good buyers so hopefully LCBO will follow suit.
A quick search of their website site turns up zero English wines.
If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
A rally is not "mass participatory democracy"
It is, in this case, a load of people clapping and whooping as Farage and some other guests trot out a load of nostrums.
mass participatory democracy is actually a really boring delegate conference with composites and agenda and points of order.
Sounds to me like your just jealous of the fact Reform voters have some enthusiasm. Before an election campaign it makes sense to gee up the troops who are going to be knocking on doors. Presumably the other parties don't have similarly motivated members?
I've never been a member of any party. I think those of you who are ought to be a bit more honest with yourselves.
On Tony Martin you probably have a really easy one question test of a persons world view. Although it’s probably also susceptible to the yes minister waybof asking the question. Personally think he was within his rights to fire a gun to scare the miscreants off, but not to aim at them, unless they were coming for him. But then I wasn’t there and have no idea how scared he was, or how much he feared for his life.
They were running away at the time.
If they'd been attacking him his case would have been altogether different.
Bottom line is, he attacked two people who weren't an immediate threat to him, using a gun he'd purchased illegally to shoot at intruders, and was totally unrepentant about doing so.
While anyone can sympathise with his being fed up at being constantly burgled, he picked precisely the wrong way to deal with it.
And the fact that Fearon was and as far as I know still is an utter scumbag doesn't excuse that, especially given the fatality (Barras) wasn't a great human being but was only 16.
The top security official at the U.S. Agency for International Development was put on administrative leave on Saturday night after refusing to give representatives of Elon Musk access to internal systems, according to three U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter.
John Voorhees, U.S.A.I.D.’s director of security, is the latest senior official at the agency to be put on administrative leave. Last week, Trump administration appointees suspended about 60 senior officials and fired hundreds of contractors…
“USAID is a criminal organization,” Mr. Musk wrote on Sunday in a social media post that many aid workers saw as confirmation the agency would soon be absorbed into the State Department and that some viewed as a potential threat to their personal safety. “Time for it to die.”
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
What odds would PB numerates assign to my Tony Martin miracle?
Not particularly long odds. As you say, you’ve had similar conversations about other rather elderly individuals, who haven’t died.
You’re far less likely to be struck by lightning, which we know isn’t a miracle, but still manages to happen to people.
A better way of thinking about it is “how likely is it that someone in the U.K. happens to be talking about someone moderately well known, on the day they die ?” Extremely likely, I think.
If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
Is this his Nurembirmingham rally?
Which (just about) works as a joke but a lot of people would take the remark seriously.
I would post the gold lift photo but that’s old hat, so instead here’s the beeb yesterday
"Donald Trump, standing on a platform many of whose policies were not dissimilar to what we put to the British people in that contract last July, has won this incredible victory and got off to the most amazing start." To applause and some cheers, he went on: "I hope and believe that many things that will happen in America will serve as an inspiration to us."
@l_stone #BREAKING: Ontario Premier Doug Ford announces starting Tuesday, the province is removing American products from LCBO shelves & also from its catalogue so restaurants and retailers can’t order or restock U.S. products. #onpoli
That’s the third province in Canada to announce such retaliation to Trump’s tariffs (and two of the three premiers are Conservatives)
Imagine having a government Liquor Control Board decide what alcoholic drinks you can buy.
Deciding.
It's the subjunctive.
It was ugly.
All doubts could have been avoided with better, punchier writing
“Imagine. A government Liquor Control Board decides what alcoholic drinks you can buy! 🫣”
Better. And no dispute over grammar
That would have been clearer. As it was, one couldn't tell whether WilliamGlen meant to write 'deciding', or 'to decide', which would have altered the meaning. I presume he meant 'deciding', so that's why I wrote what I did.
Who gives a toss? We knew what @williamglenn meant and we aren't school children.
Who gives a toss about what any of us posts here? He can choose to give what I said consideration of not.
But you were wrong.
No I wasn't. The choice of 'decide' was ambiguous and unattractive. That poster usually does better.
It's not worth arguing about but you were and I explained exactly why.
Republicans against Trump @RpsAgainstTrump · 2h We should start talking about impeachment
I rate it less than evens he does the term.
You are joking?!?! Unless Trump dies or is incapacitated by some kind of medical event, there's no realistic possibility of his not completing the term. He won't resign. He won't be impeached. Not happening.
If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
There are a number of issues to watch here really.
How does Reform pitch itself, both for itself and WRT Trumpism. How do its many political enemies place it in the spectrum. Where is Reform really WRT its public documentation, manifestos etc. What is its actual political policy agenda; is it very different. What level of competence can it bring to election winning. Ditto, competence for governing.
My own view, as a non supporter, is that to do best it should shift clearly to the centre generally, absolutely renounce and deplore the authoritarian Trumpian agenda, keeping Reform's social democrat elements, but keep clearly to a low migration and culturally conservative agenda, and keep talking up its competence and expertise even when it doesn't have any.
its greatest weakness is that its economics, balancing the books, spend, cuts, tax, borrow, debt etc is all drivel.
Most of all I don't think there are UK wide votes in being Trumpian. They need to work on it.
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
Even shuffling won’t give that level. Assume two packs start the same (I.e. in order of suites and numbers). How many manipulations take place in the shuffle? Quite plausible that you would get a match on those assumptions, given enough games and a small enough shuffle. The big numbers all assume completely random choice of cards.
"A riffle shuffle requires seven shuffles to randomize a 52-card deck. Laying cards face-down on a table and mixing them by pushing them around (a technique researchers dubbed “smooshing”) requires 30 to 60 seconds to randomize the cards."
I mean, seriously, is there a single futurist or forecaster who, say, ten years ago, had the US becoming the enemy of the free West and no longer allied with democracies across the Commonwealth and EU?
This Trump/Vance shit is off the scale.
Nine years ago, maybe.
Trump I started with various threats to Europe, and suspicions that he was in hoc to Russian money.
Sadly the democracies did nothing, really, to respond or to prepare for Trump II.
We are returning - at least for four years - to the 19th century, when the U.S. was an isolationist rival to other Great Powers.
It will be interesting to see how Trump treats the four American “deputies”: UK, Japan, Australia and Israel.
AIUI the UK Government is relying on the fact that we don't run a large trade surplus with the US to escape being lashed out at, but it's probably only a matter of time before something goes wrong.
What can go wrong? Well, most people miss that Trump uses tariffs for two quite different purposes. The first is to correct what he sees as unfair trade, and we should be all right there, although there is a risk around his misperception of VAT.
But the second is simply to extort or compel countries to obey Trump's commands, as seen with Colombia and repatriation flights, but also in the cases of Canada and Mexico where Trump has linked tariffs not only to trade but also the ingress of illegal drugs.
To be honest leaving the pro Beijing liars in the WHO is an executive order of Trump's that I can get behind. What I find repulsive is his threat to annexe Canada - on twitter FFS.
I can't believe Canada would want to trade world status for 2 senators in Washington. And would the US, particularly Trumpland, really want them. They would immediately become the No.1 state in EC votes and you can almost guarantee that would be anti Republican.
The top security official at the U.S. Agency for International Development was put on administrative leave on Saturday night after refusing to give representatives of Elon Musk access to internal systems, according to three U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter.
John Voorhees, U.S.A.I.D.’s director of security, is the latest senior official at the agency to be put on administrative leave. Last week, Trump administration appointees suspended about 60 senior officials and fired hundreds of contractors…
“USAID is a criminal organization,” Mr. Musk wrote on Sunday in a social media post that many aid workers saw as confirmation the agency would soon be absorbed into the State Department and that some viewed as a potential threat to their personal safety. “Time for it to die.”
@l_stone #BREAKING: Ontario Premier Doug Ford announces starting Tuesday, the province is removing American products from LCBO shelves & also from its catalogue so restaurants and retailers can’t order or restock U.S. products. #onpoli
If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
A rally is not "mass participatory democracy"
It is, in this case, a load of people clapping and whooping as Farage and some other guests trot out a load of nostrums.
mass participatory democracy is actually a really boring delegate conference with composites and agenda and points of order.
Sounds to me like your just jealous of the fact Reform voters have some enthusiasm. Before an election campaign it makes sense to gee up the troops who are going to be knocking on doors. Presumably the other parties don't have similarly motivated members?
I've never been a member of any party. I think those of you who are ought to be a bit more honest with yourselves.
We aren't in an election campaign.
When we are you will see most major parties doing election rallys. It reminds me of the 70s NF and BNP rallies.
More than 8,000 web pages across more than a dozen U.S. government websites have been taken down since Friday afternoon, a New York Times analysis has found, as federal agencies rush to heed President Trump’s orders targeting diversity initiatives and “gender ideology.”
The purges have removed information about vaccines, veterans’ care, hate crimes and scientific research, among many other topics. Doctors, researchers and other professionals often rely on such government data and advisories…
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
What odds would PB numerates assign to my Tony Martin miracle?
Not particularly long odds. As you say, you’ve had similar conversations about other rather elderly individuals, who haven’t died.
You’re far less likely to be struck by lightning, which we know isn’t a miracle, but still manages to happen to people.
A better way of thinking about it is “how likely is it that someone in the U.K. happens to be talking about someone moderately well known, on the day they die ?” Extremely likely, I think.
Indeed. And I had a hole in one in Sept 21. That's enormously unlikely. Even if you play golf.
I wonder what the odds are of living a life without any unbelievably long shot things happening to you? Must be astronomical.
To be honest leaving the pro Beijing liars in the WHO is an executive order of Trump's that I can get behind. What I find repulsive is his threat to annexe Canada - on twitter FFS.
I can't believe Canada would want to trade world status for 2 senators in Washington. And would the US, particularly Trumpland, really want them. They would immediately become the No.1 state in EC votes and you can almost guarantee that would be anti Republican.
THIRTEEN States.
Trump specifically referred to them as the 51st state.
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
That’s the number of possible deals, not the number of possible hands. Not the same thing.
How many different ways are there to deal the same four hands ?
There are 13! different orders in which you can deal any single individual hand, and so 13! x 13! x 13! x 13! ways to deal four.
So isn’t the total possible number of hands 52! / (13! x 13! x 13! x 13!) ?
On Tony Martin you probably have a really easy one question test of a persons world view. Although it’s probably also susceptible to the yes minister waybof asking the question. Personally think he was within his rights to fire a gun to scare the miscreants off, but not to aim at them, unless they were coming for him. But then I wasn’t there and have no idea how scared he was, or how much he feared for his life.
They were running away at the time.
If they'd been attacking him his case would have been altogether different.
Bottom line is, he attacked two people who weren't an immediate threat to him, using a gun he'd purchased illegally to shoot at intruders, and was totally unrepentant about doing so.
While anyone can sympathise with his being fed up at being constantly burgled, he picked precisely the wrong way to deal with it.
And the fact that Fearon was and as far as I know still is an utter scumbag doesn't excuse that, especially given the fatality (Barras) wasn't a great human being but was only 16.
I don’t disagree with any of that but I’d also add in if they had stayed home that night and not gone out to commit crime they wouldn’t have got shot.
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
What odds would PB numerates assign to my Tony Martin miracle?
1 don't know how extensive your daily chat is but suppose you name 10 people in a typical day. Suppose there is a one in a thousand chance (once every three years) that something noteworthy happens to one of them the next day. Then there is a one in a hundred chance, every day, that there is a coincidence. So three times a year.
If you only chat about one person a day, then a coincidence once every three years. And so on. Do the maths. It's not in the 10^68 league.
To be honest leaving the pro Beijing liars in the WHO is an executive order of Trump's that I can get behind. What I find repulsive is his threat to annexe Canada - on twitter FFS.
I can't believe Canada would want to trade world status for 2 senators in Washington. And would the US, particularly Trumpland, really want them. They would immediately become the No.1 state in EC votes and you can almost guarantee that would be anti Republican.
THIRTEEN States.
That’s not on offer, though, is it ? You’re making a similar mistake to @williamglenn , who thinks we could be another US state, rather than another Puerto Rico.
If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
Is this his Nurembirmingham rally?
Which (just about) works as a joke but a lot of people would take the remark seriously.
I would post the gold lift photo but that’s old hat, so instead here’s the beeb yesterday
"Donald Trump, standing on a platform many of whose policies were not dissimilar to what we put to the British people in that contract last July, has won this incredible victory and got off to the most amazing start." To applause and some cheers, he went on: "I hope and believe that many things that will happen in America will serve as an inspiration to us."
You think Reform are comparable to the Nazis?
Er…you asked for evidence Farage is close to Trump.
“If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally?”
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
What odds would PB numerates assign to my Tony Martin miracle?
Not particularly long odds. As you say, you’ve had similar conversations about other rather elderly individuals, who haven’t died.
You’re far less likely to be struck by lightning, which we know isn’t a miracle, but still manages to happen to people.
A better way of thinking about it is “how likely is it that someone in the U.K. happens to be talking about someone moderately well known, on the day they die ?” Extremely likely, I think.
Indeed. And I had a hole in one in Sept 21. That's enormously unlikely. Even if you play golf.
I wonder what the odds are of living a life without any unbelievably long shot things happening to you? Must be astronomical.
Ok so if you play golf once a week for twenty years that’s roughly 1000 rounds. Assuming at least one par three and also assuming you are able to hit the green on said par three then the odds would on you getting lucky at least once surely? Are there any stats on this out there?
If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
There are a number of issues to watch here really.
How does Reform pitch itself, both for itself and WRT Trumpism. How do its many political enemies place it in the spectrum. Where is Reform really WRT its public documentation, manifestos etc. What is its actual political policy agenda; is it very different. What level of competence can it bring to election winning. Ditto, competence for governing.
My own view, as a non supporter, is that to do best it should shift clearly to the centre generally, absolutely renounce and deplore the authoritarian Trumpian agenda, keeping Reform's social democrat elements, but keep clearly to a low migration and culturally conservative agenda, and keep talking up its competence and expertise even when it doesn't have any.
its greatest weakness is that its economics, balancing the books, spend, cuts, tax, borrow, debt etc is all drivel.
Most of all I don't think there are UK wide votes in being Trumpian. They need to work on it.
Yes the "pissed off want change" vote is a bigger target than the hard core xenophobe one.
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
That’s the number of possible deals, not the number of possible hands. Not the same thing.
How many different ways are there to deal the same four hands ?
If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
A rally is not "mass participatory democracy"
It is, in this case, a load of people clapping and whooping as Farage and some other guests trot out a load of nostrums.
mass participatory democracy is actually a really boring delegate conference with composites and agenda and points of order.
Sounds to me like your just jealous of the fact Reform voters have some enthusiasm. Before an election campaign it makes sense to gee up the troops who are going to be knocking on doors. Presumably the other parties don't have similarly motivated members?
I've never been a member of any party. I think those of you who are ought to be a bit more honest with yourselves.
We aren't in an election campaign.
When we are you will see most major parties doing election rallys. It reminds me of the 70s NF and BNP rallies.
Not really. On the whole (and it makes me proud to be British) crowds of people in many thousands don't and won't turn up to adulatory political party rallies, and parties for this reason don't hold them much. It is too much work to get that many party conformists in the same place to clap in all the right spots. Many more would turn up to see them hanged but even then most would rather wallpaper the stairs. And I think that is just as it should be.
Reform are on a roll, and can easily fill a large room. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
That’s the number of possible deals, not the number of possible hands. Not the same thing.
How many different ways are there to deal the same four hands ?
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
Even shuffling won’t give that level. Assume two packs start the same (I.e. in order of suites and numbers). How many manipulations take place in the shuffle? Quite plausible that you would get a match on those assumptions, given enough games and a small enough shuffle. The big numbers all assume completely random choice of cards.
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
That’s the number of possible deals, not the number of possible hands. Not the same thing.
How many different ways are there to deal the same four hands ?
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
What odds would PB numerates assign to my Tony Martin miracle?
Not particularly long odds. As you say, you’ve had similar conversations about other rather elderly individuals, who haven’t died.
You’re far less likely to be struck by lightning, which we know isn’t a miracle, but still manages to happen to people.
A better way of thinking about it is “how likely is it that someone in the U.K. happens to be talking about someone moderately well known, on the day they die ?” Extremely likely, I think.
Indeed. And I had a hole in one in Sept 21. That's enormously unlikely. Even if you play golf.
I wonder what the odds are of living a life without any unbelievably long shot things happening to you? Must be astronomical.
Ok so if you play golf once a week for twenty years that’s roughly 1000 rounds. Assuming at least one par three and also assuming you are able to hit the green on said par three then the odds would on you getting lucky at least once surely? Are there any stats on this out there?
There are. Most recreational golfers never do it but it's a sizeable minority who do.
@l_stone #BREAKING: Ontario Premier Doug Ford announces starting Tuesday, the province is removing American products from LCBO shelves & also from its catalogue so restaurants and retailers can’t order or restock U.S. products. #onpoli
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
That’s the number of possible deals, not the number of possible hands. Not the same thing.
How many different ways are there to deal the same four hands ?
Much larger.
Purge
If it's of any interest, I have talked about Tony Martin within the past week, and I don't think I've thought about him for about 20 years before that.
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
That’s the number of possible deals, not the number of possible hands. Not the same thing.
How many different ways are there to deal the same four hands ?
Much larger.
If you're talking about the numbers of different ways of having 4 hands of 13 cards from a deck of 52 (like in Bridge) this suggests the number is 2.2 x 10 to the power 27 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9-b-QJZdVA Matt Parker Stand up maths, talking about how a bridge hand could have been dealt where all four players got the whole of one suit each
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
What odds would PB numerates assign to my Tony Martin miracle?
Not particularly long odds. As you say, you’ve had similar conversations about other rather elderly individuals, who haven’t died.
You’re far less likely to be struck by lightning, which we know isn’t a miracle, but still manages to happen to people.
A better way of thinking about it is “how likely is it that someone in the U.K. happens to be talking about someone moderately well known, on the day they die ?” Extremely likely, I think.
Indeed. And I had a hole in one in Sept 21. That's enormously unlikely. Even if you play golf.
I wonder what the odds are of living a life without any unbelievably long shot things happening to you? Must be astronomical.
If we live in a vast multi-verse following multiple life paths, then in one of them you'll live forever. But the rest of us won't. In that particular path, only you.
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
What odds would PB numerates assign to my Tony Martin miracle?
Not particularly long odds. As you say, you’ve had similar conversations about other rather elderly individuals, who haven’t died.
You’re far less likely to be struck by lightning, which we know isn’t a miracle, but still manages to happen to people.
A better way of thinking about it is “how likely is it that someone in the U.K. happens to be talking about someone moderately well known, on the day they die ?” Extremely likely, I think.
Indeed. And I had a hole in one in Sept 21. That's enormously unlikely. Even if you play golf.
I wonder what the odds are of living a life without any unbelievably long shot things happening to you? Must be astronomical.
Ok so if you play golf once a week for twenty years that’s roughly 1000 rounds. Assuming at least one par three and also assuming you are able to hit the green on said par three then the odds would on you getting lucky at least once surely? Are there any stats on this out there?
There are. Most recreational golfers never do it but it's a sizeable minority who do.
I have once. A genuine hole in one across water, about 150 yards. I kept quiet about it.
Here's a fact most Americans don't know: The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world. The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits. We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.
Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
Due to crazy legislation over here most of ours is now. Lots of beers reducing their alcohol content, many to a pathetic 3.4%, to save money on the duty paid.
A craft cider maker I used to buy bag in a boxes from during Covid now produces mainly 3.4% piss. Cider made naturally ferments out to around 7.4%
Mind you it doesn’t affect fantastic authentic foreign beers we get, like Madri, the spirit of Madrid.
Here's a fact most Americans don't know: The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world. The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits. We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.
Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
Due to crazy legislation over here most of ours is now. Lots of beers reducing their alcohol content, many to a pathetic 3.4%, to save money on the duty paid.
A craft cider maker I used to buy bag in a boxes from during Covid now produces mainly 3.4% piss. Cider made naturally ferments out to around 7.4%
Mind you it doesn’t affect fantastic authentic foreign beers we get, like Madri, the spirit of Madrid.
3.4% is as you say pissy water, once you get much less than 5% it is not worth drinking apart from the odd craft beer.
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
What odds would PB numerates assign to my Tony Martin miracle?
1 don't know how extensive your daily chat is but suppose you name 10 people in a typical day. Suppose there is a one in a thousand chance (once every three years) that something noteworthy happens to one of them the next day. Then there is a one in a hundred chance, every day, that there is a coincidence. So three times a year.
If you only chat about one person a day, then a coincidence once every three years. And so on. Do the maths. It's not in the 10^68 league.
In this case a person not in the news who dies. Yes, it's a lot closer to even money than billions to one. I'd go 1000/1. That's quick and dirty, no abacus. My hole in one perhaps about the same. Which I enjoyed far more than this Tony Martin thing.
Let's see. The Loser has atacked Denmark, Canada, and Mexico.
Anything common to those three nations? Well, yes. As a member of NATO, Denmark has been especially good at supplying weapons to Ukraine, per capita. Canada is essential to US security, providing, for example, bases for the DEW line: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distant_Early_Warning_Line
And good relations with Mexico are essential if we want to control the drug trade, which has done so much harm to both nations.
So good relations with all three are important to US defenses.
Wonder where the Loser got the idea to pick on those three nations?
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
What odds would PB numerates assign to my Tony Martin miracle?
Not particularly long odds. As you say, you’ve had similar conversations about other rather elderly individuals, who haven’t died.
You’re far less likely to be struck by lightning, which we know isn’t a miracle, but still manages to happen to people.
A better way of thinking about it is “how likely is it that someone in the U.K. happens to be talking about someone moderately well known, on the day they die ?” Extremely likely, I think.
Indeed. And I had a hole in one in Sept 21. That's enormously unlikely. Even if you play golf.
I wonder what the odds are of living a life without any unbelievably long shot things happening to you? Must be astronomical.
Ok so if you play golf once a week for twenty years that’s roughly 1000 rounds. Assuming at least one par three and also assuming you are able to hit the green on said par three then the odds would on you getting lucky at least once surely? Are there any stats on this out there?
There are. Most recreational golfers never do it but it's a sizeable minority who do.
I have once. A genuine hole in one across water, about 150 yards. I kept quiet about it.
Terrific effort!
I told the world and had a memento made for the mantlepiece.
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
What odds would PB numerates assign to my Tony Martin miracle?
Not particularly long odds. As you say, you’ve had similar conversations about other rather elderly individuals, who haven’t died.
You’re far less likely to be struck by lightning, which we know isn’t a miracle, but still manages to happen to people.
A better way of thinking about it is “how likely is it that someone in the U.K. happens to be talking about someone moderately well known, on the day they die ?” Extremely likely, I think.
Indeed. And I had a hole in one in Sept 21. That's enormously unlikely. Even if you play golf.
I wonder what the odds are of living a life without any unbelievably long shot things happening to you? Must be astronomical.
I think your Tony Martin example is what Carl Jung meant by synchronicity. But it was rather above my head.
If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
Out of interest is Birmingham twinned with Nuremberg?
Edit. Beaten to it by @Daveyboy1961 "Like" duly given.
@l_stone #BREAKING: Ontario Premier Doug Ford announces starting Tuesday, the province is removing American products from LCBO shelves & also from its catalogue so restaurants and retailers can’t order or restock U.S. products. #onpoli
Here's a fact most Americans don't know: The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world. The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits. We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.
Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
Due to crazy legislation over here most of ours is now. Lots of beers reducing their alcohol content, many to a pathetic 3.4%, to save money on the duty paid.
A craft cider maker I used to buy bag in a boxes from during Covid now produces mainly 3.4% piss. Cider made naturally ferments out to around 7.4%
Mind you it doesn’t affect fantastic authentic foreign beers we get, like Madri, the spirit of Madrid.
3.4% is as you say pissy water, once you get much less than 5% it is not worth drinking apart from the odd craft beer.
More than 8,000 web pages across more than a dozen U.S. government websites have been taken down since Friday afternoon, a New York Times analysis has found, as federal agencies rush to heed President Trump’s orders targeting diversity initiatives and “gender ideology.”
The purges have removed information about vaccines, veterans’ care, hate crimes and scientific research, among many other topics. Doctors, researchers and other professionals often rely on such government data and advisories…
One of the less convincing bits of world-building in 1984 is the whole "taking in every printed copy of The Times and returning it once Winston Smith had corrected it" thing
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
What odds would PB numerates assign to my Tony Martin miracle?
Not particularly long odds. As you say, you’ve had similar conversations about other rather elderly individuals, who haven’t died.
You’re far less likely to be struck by lightning, which we know isn’t a miracle, but still manages to happen to people.
A better way of thinking about it is “how likely is it that someone in the U.K. happens to be talking about someone moderately well known, on the day they die ?” Extremely likely, I think.
Indeed. And I had a hole in one in Sept 21. That's enormously unlikely. Even if you play golf.
I wonder what the odds are of living a life without any unbelievably long shot things happening to you? Must be astronomical.
Ok so if you play golf once a week for twenty years that’s roughly 1000 rounds. Assuming at least one par three and also assuming you are able to hit the green on said par three then the odds would on you getting lucky at least once surely? Are there any stats on this out there?
There are. Most recreational golfers never do it but it's a sizeable minority who do.
I have once. A genuine hole in one across water, about 150 yards. I kept quiet about it.
I hit a hole in one on a Florida Keys 'crazy golf' course. And got a "You can play here for free forever!" card for my trouble.
Sadly, the proudest moment of my early teens. I kept it on my Roger Rabbit keyring for years until both eventually disintegrated.
If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
Is this his Nurembirmingham rally?
Which (just about) works as a joke but a lot of people would take the remark seriously.
I would post the gold lift photo but that’s old hat, so instead here’s the beeb yesterday
"Donald Trump, standing on a platform many of whose policies were not dissimilar to what we put to the British people in that contract last July, has won this incredible victory and got off to the most amazing start." To applause and some cheers, he went on: "I hope and believe that many things that will happen in America will serve as an inspiration to us."
A small story about trade at the US/Canadian border: Some years ago, I read that Canadians were coming down from British Columbia to buy coats, which were less expensive in US shopping malls near the border, than in Canada. To disguise what they were doing when they drove back across the border, the Canadians would wear their new coats, having dumped their old ones at the malls.
So the malls put up containers for those coats, to help out their Canadian customers.
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
What odds would PB numerates assign to my Tony Martin miracle?
Not particularly long odds. As you say, you’ve had similar conversations about other rather elderly individuals, who haven’t died.
You’re far less likely to be struck by lightning, which we know isn’t a miracle, but still manages to happen to people.
A better way of thinking about it is “how likely is it that someone in the U.K. happens to be talking about someone moderately well known, on the day they die ?” Extremely likely, I think.
Indeed. And I had a hole in one in Sept 21. That's enormously unlikely. Even if you play golf.
I wonder what the odds are of living a life without any unbelievably long shot things happening to you? Must be astronomical.
Ok so if you play golf once a week for twenty years that’s roughly 1000 rounds. Assuming at least one par three and also assuming you are able to hit the green on said par three then the odds would on you getting lucky at least once surely? Are there any stats on this out there?
There are. Most recreational golfers never do it but it's a sizeable minority who do.
I have once. A genuine hole in one across water, about 150 yards. I kept quiet about it.
I hit a hole in one on a Florida Keys 'crazy golf' course. And got a "You can play here for free forever!" card for my trouble.
Sadly, the proudest moment of my early teens. I kept it on my Roger Rabbit keyring for years until both eventually disintegrated.
There is (or at least was) an indoor mini golf place in Cabot Circus, Bristol. The wife loves mini golf and chose this for her birthday treat. At the end, if you get a hole in one you get a free round. Which she did. Not once, but twice (on the first, paid round, then on the free one). I think we just left after that. Could have been there all day…
If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
Out of interest is Birmingham twinned with Nuremberg?
Edit. Beaten to it by @Daveyboy1961 "Like" duly given.
Is that meant to be a joke? Do you think you are making yourself look clever? If you are then I'm afraid you just make yourself look like an idiot. Has Birmingham debased itself by twinning with Nuremberg? Or do you really think that's why the rally is in Birmingham? As opposed to it being the second largest city in the UK with a good central location (unless you live north of Leeds).
At the moment many Reform critics just seem to be behaving like a bunch of petty losers.
Here's a fact most Americans don't know: The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world. The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits. We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.
Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
Due to crazy legislation over here most of ours is now. Lots of beers reducing their alcohol content, many to a pathetic 3.4%, to save money on the duty paid.
A craft cider maker I used to buy bag in a boxes from during Covid now produces mainly 3.4% piss. Cider made naturally ferments out to around 7.4%
Mind you it doesn’t affect fantastic authentic foreign beers we get, like Madri, the spirit of Madrid.
3.4% is as you say pissy water, once you get much less than 5% it is not worth drinking apart from the odd craft beer.
3.4 - 4.0% is the ideal range for proper beer.
Hmm, I would say you can go up to around 5%, I would prefer 4-4.5% if talking lager then anything other than a smidgen under 5% is rubbish.
If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
Out of interest is Birmingham twinned with Nuremberg?
Edit. Beaten to it by @Daveyboy1961 "Like" duly given.
Is that meant to be a joke? Do you think you are making yourself look clever? If you are then I'm afraid you just make yourself look like an idiot. Has Birmingham debased itself by twinning with Nuremberg? Or do you really think that's why the rally is in Birmingham? As opposed to it being the second largest city in the UK with a good central location (unless you live north of Leeds).
At the moment many Reform critics just seem to be behaving like a bunch of petty losers.
If a plane crashes on the border between Ukraine and Canada, where do they bury the survivors?
Greece’s most famous island Santorini has experienced more than 200 earthquakes over just 48 hours.
Why is this important?
It exists on top of a seismic region and has a dormant volcanο. The last eruption happened in the 1950s and so was a 6.9 mag earthquake w/ 25m tsunami.
Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.
An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.
"But there's a lab there in that very city!"
🤔
Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68. 10 followed by 68 zeros.
To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe. And 10^57 atoms in a typical star. So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe. 10 followed by 80 zeros.
That's a lot.
It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands. Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
That’s the number of possible deals, not the number of possible hands. Not the same thing.
How many different ways are there to deal the same four hands ?
Much larger.
Purge
If it's of any interest, I have talked about Tony Martin within the past week, and I don't think I've thought about him for about 20 years before that.
Margaret Thatcher's death broke on my phone within 30 seconds of my train passing through Grantham station, something I did on average about once a year at that point.
If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
Out of interest is Birmingham twinned with Nuremberg?
Edit. Beaten to it by @Daveyboy1961 "Like" duly given.
Is that meant to be a joke? Do you think you are making yourself look clever? If you are then I'm afraid you just make yourself look like an idiot. Has Birmingham debased itself by twinning with Nuremberg? Or do you really think that's why the rally is in Birmingham? As opposed to it being the second largest city in the UK with a good central location (unless you live north of Leeds).
At the moment many Reform critics just seem to be behaving like a bunch of petty losers.
If a plane crashes on the border between Ukraine and Canada, where do they bury the survivors?
You've lost me now. I have consistently stood up for Ukraine and now Canada from Trump's threats (see below).
If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
Out of interest is Birmingham twinned with Nuremberg?
Edit. Beaten to it by @Daveyboy1961 "Like" duly given.
Is that meant to be a joke? Do you think you are making yourself look clever? If you are then I'm afraid you just make yourself look like an idiot. Has Birmingham debased itself by twinning with Nuremberg? Or do you really think that's why the rally is in Birmingham? As opposed to it being the second largest city in the UK with a good central location (unless you live north of Leeds).
At the moment many Reform critics just seem to be behaving like a bunch of petty losers.
If a plane crashes on the border between Ukraine and Canada, where do they bury the survivors?
You've lost me now. I have consistently stood up for Ukraine and now Canada from Trump's threats (see below).
If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
Out of interest is Birmingham twinned with Nuremberg?
Edit. Beaten to it by @Daveyboy1961 "Like" duly given.
Is that meant to be a joke? Do you think you are making yourself look clever? If you are then I'm afraid you just make yourself look like an idiot. Has Birmingham debased itself by twinning with Nuremberg? Or do you really think that's why the rally is in Birmingham? As opposed to it being the second largest city in the UK with a good central location (unless you live north of Leeds).
At the moment many Reform critics just seem to be behaving like a bunch of petty losers.
If a plane crashes on the border between Ukraine and Canada, where do they bury the survivors?
You've lost me now. I have consistently stood up for Ukraine and now Canada from Trump's threats (see below).
I think that's the universal code for Troll Alert!!
To be honest leaving the pro Beijing liars in the WHO is an executive order of Trump's that I can get behind. What I find repulsive is his threat to annexe Canada - on twitter FFS.
I can't believe Canada would want to trade world status for 2 senators in Washington. And would the US, particularly Trumpland, really want them. They would immediately become the No.1 state in EC votes and you can almost guarantee that would be anti Republican.
THIRTEEN States.
That’s not on offer, though, is it ? You’re making a similar mistake to @williamglenn , who thinks we could be another US state, rather than another Puerto Rico.
Just to clarify, the Anglospheric Federation I propose would ideally be as free from MAGA influence as possible.
I said back in November, if we Brits had taken part in the US election, we would have seen Lady Protector Kamala elected, assuming our Lefty-ish (Democrat?) votes for England (Labour winners), Scotland (Labour winners), Wales (Labour winners), and NI (SF winners - just!) carried over from July.
If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
There are a number of issues to watch here really.
How does Reform pitch itself, both for itself and WRT Trumpism. How do its many political enemies place it in the spectrum. Where is Reform really WRT its public documentation, manifestos etc. What is its actual political policy agenda; is it very different. What level of competence can it bring to election winning. Ditto, competence for governing.
My own view, as a non supporter, is that to do best it should shift clearly to the centre generally, absolutely renounce and deplore the authoritarian Trumpian agenda, keeping Reform's social democrat elements, but keep clearly to a low migration and culturally conservative agenda, and keep talking up its competence and expertise even when it doesn't have any.
its greatest weakness is that its economics, balancing the books, spend, cuts, tax, borrow, debt etc is all drivel.
Most of all I don't think there are UK wide votes in being Trumpian. They need to work on it.
I doubt Reform can give up the culture war drivel that is also so Trumpian.
Let's see. The Loser has atacked Denmark, Canada, and Mexico.
Anything common to those three nations? Well, yes. As a member of NATO, Denmark has been especially good at supplying weapons to Ukraine, per capita. Canada is essential to US security, providing, for example, bases for the DEW line: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distant_Early_Warning_Line
And good relations with Mexico are essential if we want to control the drug trade, which has done so much harm to both nations.
So good relations with all three are important to US defenses.
Wonder where the Loser got the idea to pick on those three nations?
It is very worrying. No doubt about that. I wouldn't criticise the Starmer government for how it has dealt so far with the new administration in Washington. Once we get a clear sense of the direction of travel we can decide what distance we need to put between ourselves and them.
If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
Out of interest is Birmingham twinned with Nuremberg?
Edit. Beaten to it by @Daveyboy1961 "Like" duly given.
Is that meant to be a joke? Do you think you are making yourself look clever? If you are then I'm afraid you just make yourself look like an idiot. Has Birmingham debased itself by twinning with Nuremberg? Or do you really think that's why the rally is in Birmingham? As opposed to it being the second largest city in the UK with a good central location (unless you live north of Leeds).
At the moment many Reform critics just seem to be behaving like a bunch of petty losers.
If only the UK and Canada had secured the Anglo-Canadian agreement* that I’ve written about, then Trump would have thought twice about levelling destructive tariffs.
*A single UK-Canada market, FOM, energy and defence co-operation.
Here's a fact most Americans don't know: The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world. The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits. We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.
Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
Due to crazy legislation over here most of ours is now. Lots of beers reducing their alcohol content, many to a pathetic 3.4%, to save money on the duty paid.
A craft cider maker I used to buy bag in a boxes from during Covid now produces mainly 3.4% piss. Cider made naturally ferments out to around 7.4%
Mind you it doesn’t affect fantastic authentic foreign beers we get, like Madri, the spirit of Madrid.
Not all beer is gnats piss.
Not sure that Pepsi would be too keen on the product association there though!!
If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
Out of interest is Birmingham twinned with Nuremberg?
Edit. Beaten to it by @Daveyboy1961 "Like" duly given.
Is that meant to be a joke? Do you think you are making yourself look clever? If you are then I'm afraid you just make yourself look like an idiot. Has Birmingham debased itself by twinning with Nuremberg? Or do you really think that's why the rally is in Birmingham? As opposed to it being the second largest city in the UK with a good central location (unless you live north of Leeds).
At the moment many Reform critics just seem to be behaving like a bunch of petty losers.
View it simply as gallows humour. Your boys scare the living daylights out of me.
If you believe I am over reacting towards Farage can I point you in the direction of his masters and fellow students at Dulwich College.
There is a massive constitutional and diplomatic crisis looming for Starmer and King Charles if Trump continues in his attempts to make Canada the 51st state.
There is a massive constitutional and diplomatic crisis looming for Starmer and King Charles if Trump continues in his attempts to make Canada the 51st state.
Brace.
It’s simple. Charles just offers Trump to be viceroy of the Dominion of North America. A position without term limits.
Paul Poilievre gave a good speech earlier outlining his own plan to respond to the imposition of tariffs.
Tout de Canada seem united against Trump’s unwarranted aggression against a natural ally.
It’s true that this will have long-term effects. Canada is learning that it cannot rely so completely on American stability. It will naturally look to the UK and Europe to provide a broader set of economic options. For one, it will probably now expedite the development of a pipeline from Alberta to Eastern seaports.
Another implication of these tariffs: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already been sidelined.
He argued that tariffs should be very gradual to allow businesses to adjust, and as recently as week was still suggesting that any tariffs would be highly selective.
“The tariff gun will always be loaded and on the table but rarely discharged,” Mr. Bessent wrote in a letter to partners of his hedge fund Key Square Group last year.
There is a massive constitutional and diplomatic crisis looming for Starmer and King Charles if Trump continues in his attempts to make Canada the 51st state.
Brace.
There isn't, Trump's cabinet would almost certainly remove him and replace him with Vance if he proposed invading Canada.
A trade war between Canada and the US is a matter for their governments and of course Trump is on course for a trade war with most of the biggest global economies
Can someone explain to me why Labour are making noises about having a closer trade relationship with the EU just as Trump is saddling up to hit the EU with gigantic tariffs which he hasn't yet said will be applied to the UK? I don't understand this thinking at all, surely just staying where we are with a tariff free trade deal with the EU and no formal trade deal with the US (and no punitive tariff regime) is the best possible move. Anything that antagonises Trump by moving closer to the EU and results in similar tariffs to Canada being applied to our US trade and then being involved in retaliatory ones will result in a recession regardless of what minute gains there might be in having a a closer relationship to the EU.
Like it or not, Trump is the only game in town right now and by luck or by design we've managed to escape his immediate ire, why trade that away for no gain?
Greece’s most famous island Santorini has experienced more than 200 earthquakes over just 48 hours.
Why is this important?
It exists on top of a seismic region and has a dormant volcanο. The last eruption happened in the 1950s and so was a 6.9 mag earthquake w/ 25m tsunami.
Isn't there a theory that Santorini erupting wiped out the Minoan civilisation and created the myth of Atlantis?
There is a massive constitutional and diplomatic crisis looming for Starmer and King Charles if Trump continues in his attempts to make Canada the 51st state.
Brace.
There isn't, Trump's cabinet would almost certainly remove him and replace him with Vance if he proposed invading Canada.
A trade war between Canada and the US is a matter for their governments and of course Trump is on course for a trade war with most of the biggest global economies
Would they?
They are all handpicked to be loyal to the point of taking a bullet for him.
Why would his Cabinet turn?
Every single one of them would be cheering and whooping as the black hawks crossed the Canada border.
There is a massive constitutional and diplomatic crisis looming for Starmer and King Charles if Trump continues in his attempts to make Canada the 51st state.
Brace.
There isn't, Trump's cabinet would almost certainly remove him and replace him with Vance if he proposed invading Canada.
A trade war between Canada and the US is a matter for their governments and of course Trump is on course for a trade war with most of the biggest global economies
That's not how these things tend to play out. For it to get to that point, Canada will have already done something reckless enough to give them a casus belli.
There is a massive constitutional and diplomatic crisis looming for Starmer and King Charles if Trump continues in his attempts to make Canada the 51st state.
Brace.
William really ought to announce a visit to Canada. His last visit was 2016, a lifetime ago.
Charles was in Canada in 2022 and was intending to go in 2024 but it was postponed due to his cancer treatment. It’s thought improper for him to visit in 2025 as an election is due no later than October.
There is a massive constitutional and diplomatic crisis looming for Starmer and King Charles if Trump continues in his attempts to make Canada the 51st state.
Brace.
There isn't, Trump's cabinet would almost certainly remove him and replace him with Vance if he proposed invading Canada.
A trade war between Canada and the US is a matter for their governments and of course Trump is on course for a trade war with most of the biggest global economies
No, Trump's Cabinet are his yes men. They wouldn't Amendment 25 him.
Paul Poilievre gave a good speech earlier outlining his own plan to respond to the imposition of tariffs.
Tout de Canada seem united against Trump’s unwarranted aggression against a natural ally.
It’s true that this will have long-term effects. Canada is learning that it cannot rely so completely on American stability. It will naturally look to the UK and Europe to provide a broader set of economic options. For one, it will probably now expedite the development of a pipeline from Alberta to Eastern seaports.
In the future post-Trump I like the idea of a closer economic union for the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Potential alignment on trade goals and a wide ranging 4-way trade deal including services with mutual recognition of qualifications and certifications.
Can someone explain to me why Labour are making noises about having a closer trade relationship with the EU just as Trump is saddling up to hit the EU with gigantic tariffs which he hasn't yet said will be applied to the UK? I don't understand this thinking at all, surely just staying where we are with a tariff free trade deal with the EU and no formal trade deal with the US (and no punitive tariff regime) is the best possible move. Anything that antagonises Trump by moving closer to the EU and results in similar tariffs to Canada being applied to our US trade and then being involved in retaliatory ones will result in a recession regardless of what minute gains there might be in having a a closer relationship to the EU.
Like it or not, Trump is the only game in town right now and by luck or by design we've managed to escape his immediate ire, why trade that away for no gain?
Only the Lib Dems are actually proposing joining the customs union. That the EU is likely to be subject to US tariffs is no argument against improving the UK-EU trading arrangement. It may even be argument in favour.
I do think now would be a good time for the government to revisit the previously failed upgrade to the existing UK/Canada free trade deal. I'm sure they'll be more interested in compromising now.
Comments
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czrlkzd5p2lo.amp
"Donald Trump, standing on a platform many of whose policies were not dissimilar to what we put to the British people in that contract last July, has won this incredible victory and got off to the most amazing start."
To applause and some cheers, he went on: "I hope and believe that many things that will happen in America will serve as an inspiration to us."
I've never been a member of any party. I think those of you who are ought to be a bit more honest with yourselves.
If they'd been attacking him his case would have been altogether different.
Bottom line is, he attacked two people who weren't an immediate threat to him, using a gun he'd purchased illegally to shoot at intruders, and was totally unrepentant about doing so.
While anyone can sympathise with his being fed up at being constantly burgled, he picked precisely the wrong way to deal with it.
And the fact that Fearon was and as far as I know still is an utter scumbag doesn't excuse that, especially given the fatality (Barras) wasn't a great human being but was only 16.
The top security official at the U.S. Agency for International Development was put on administrative leave on Saturday night after refusing to give representatives of Elon Musk access to internal systems, according to three U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter.
John Voorhees, U.S.A.I.D.’s director of security, is the latest senior official at the agency to be put on administrative leave. Last week, Trump administration appointees suspended about 60 senior officials and fired hundreds of contractors…
“USAID is a criminal organization,” Mr. Musk wrote on Sunday in a social media post that many aid workers saw as confirmation the agency would soon be absorbed into the State Department and that some viewed as a potential threat to their personal safety. “Time for it to die.”
As you say, you’ve had similar conversations about other rather elderly individuals, who haven’t died.
You’re far less likely to be struck by lightning, which we know isn’t a miracle, but still manages to happen to people.
A better way of thinking about it is “how likely is it that someone in the U.K. happens to be talking about someone moderately well known, on the day they die ?”
Extremely likely, I think.
How does Reform pitch itself, both for itself and WRT Trumpism.
How do its many political enemies place it in the spectrum.
Where is Reform really WRT its public documentation, manifestos etc.
What is its actual political policy agenda; is it very different.
What level of competence can it bring to election winning.
Ditto, competence for governing.
My own view, as a non supporter, is that to do best it should shift clearly to the centre generally, absolutely renounce and deplore the authoritarian Trumpian agenda, keeping Reform's social democrat elements, but keep clearly to a low migration and culturally conservative agenda, and keep talking up its competence and expertise even when it doesn't have any.
its greatest weakness is that its economics, balancing the books, spend, cuts, tax, borrow, debt etc is all drivel.
Most of all I don't think there are UK wide votes in being Trumpian. They need to work on it.
But the second is simply to extort or compel countries to obey Trump's commands, as seen with Colombia and repatriation flights, but also in the cases of Canada and Mexico where Trump has linked tariffs not only to trade but also the ingress of illegal drugs.
(That's just my subjunctive opinion of course.)
When we are you will see most major parties doing election rallys. It reminds me of the 70s NF and BNP rallies.
More than 8,000 web pages across more than a dozen U.S. government websites have been taken down since Friday afternoon, a New York Times analysis has found, as federal agencies rush to heed President Trump’s orders targeting diversity initiatives and “gender ideology.”
The purges have removed information about vaccines, veterans’ care, hate crimes and scientific research, among many other topics. Doctors, researchers and other professionals often rely on such government data and advisories…
I wonder what the odds are of living a life without any unbelievably long shot things happening to you? Must be astronomical.
So isn’t the total possible number of hands 52! / (13! x 13! x 13! x 13!) ?
As I say, it’s a window into people’s world view.
1 don't know how extensive your daily chat is but suppose you name 10 people in a typical day. Suppose there is a one in a thousand chance (once every three years) that something noteworthy happens to one of them the next day. Then there is a one in a hundred chance, every day, that there is a coincidence. So three times a year.
If you only chat about one person a day, then a coincidence once every three years. And so on. Do the maths. It's not in the 10^68 league.
You’re making a similar mistake to @williamglenn , who thinks we could be another US state, rather than another Puerto Rico.
“If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally?”
Reform are on a roll, and can easily fill a large room. Enjoy it while it lasts.
2.2 x 10 to the power 27
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9-b-QJZdVA
Matt Parker Stand up maths, talking about how a bridge hand could have been dealt where all four players got the whole of one suit each
I kept quiet about it.
Anything common to those three nations? Well, yes. As a member of NATO, Denmark has been especially good at supplying weapons to Ukraine, per capita. Canada is essential to US security, providing, for example, bases for the DEW line: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distant_Early_Warning_Line
And good relations with Mexico are essential if we want to control the drug trade, which has done so much harm to both nations.
So good relations with all three are important to US defenses.
Wonder where the Loser got the idea to pick on those three nations?
I told the world and had a memento made for the mantlepiece.
Edit. Beaten to it by @Daveyboy1961 "Like" duly given.
Thanks internet, for making it so much easier.
Sadly, the proudest moment of my early teens. I kept it on my Roger Rabbit keyring for years until both eventually disintegrated.
So the malls put up containers for those coats, to help out their Canadian customers.
- Canadian bread flour
- maple syrup
- whisky
- cooked lobster
- scallops
- chilli jam
Should make for a fun evening
At the moment many Reform critics just seem to be behaving like a bunch of petty losers.
https://x.com/greekanalyst/status/1886110274953867523?s=46
Greece’s most famous island Santorini has experienced more than 200 earthquakes over just 48 hours.
Why is this important?
It exists on top of a seismic region and has a dormant volcanο. The last eruption happened in the 1950s and so was a 6.9 mag earthquake w/ 25m tsunami.
I said back in November, if we Brits had taken part in the US election, we would have seen Lady Protector Kamala elected, assuming our Lefty-ish (Democrat?) votes for England (Labour winners), Scotland (Labour winners), Wales (Labour winners), and NI (SF winners - just!) carried over from July.
*A single UK-Canada market, FOM, energy and defence co-operation.
By Yuan Yi Zhu"
https://unherd.com/newsroom/tariffs-will-permanently-damage-us-canada-relationship/
That was quick!
This is going to be funny.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
If you believe I am over reacting towards Farage can I point you in the direction of his masters and fellow students at Dulwich College.
There is a massive constitutional and diplomatic crisis looming for Starmer and King Charles if Trump continues in his attempts to make Canada the 51st state.
Brace.
Tout de Canada seem united against Trump’s unwarranted aggression against a natural ally.
It’s true that this will have long-term effects.
Canada is learning that it cannot rely so completely on American stability. It will naturally look to the UK and Europe to provide a broader set of economic options. For one, it will probably now expedite the development of a pipeline from Alberta to Eastern seaports.
..
Punxsutawney Phil predicts four more years of fascism.
He argued that tariffs should be very gradual to allow businesses to adjust, and as recently as week was still suggesting that any tariffs would be highly selective.
“The tariff gun will always be loaded and on the table but rarely discharged,” Mr. Bessent wrote in a letter to partners of his hedge fund Key Square Group last year.
A trade war between Canada and the US is a matter for their governments and of course Trump is on course for a trade war with most of the biggest global economies
Sam Stein
@samstein
·
9m
Department of Education is, per sources, rumored to be the next Elon target. Scope of the purge not known but fear is a wind down EO is coming
Like it or not, Trump is the only game in town right now and by luck or by design we've managed to escape his immediate ire, why trade that away for no gain?
They are all handpicked to be loyal to the point of taking a bullet for him.
Why would his Cabinet turn?
Every single one of them would be cheering and whooping as the black hawks crossed the Canada border.
Charles was in Canada in 2022 and was intending to go in 2024 but it was postponed due to his cancer treatment. It’s thought improper for him to visit in 2025 as an election is due no later than October.
They are no more use than Caligula's Horse.