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Britain Trump: Could it happen here? – politicalbetting.com

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  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,439

    kamski said:

    Foxy said:
    Although that could be used to make the opposite point that much of what is written about foreign countries is ignorant rubbish.
    More like: much of what is written about foreign countries is a touch exaggerated here and there but is mostly pretty accurate
    Much of what is written about anything is a touch exaggerated here and there, or has flaws in the factual details, but is mostly pretty accurate.

    If a story is about something you know about, you can recognise the bits they got wrong. That only partially detracts from the overall sense.

    (Caveat: this works for writing that is trying to describe rather than persuade. For all sorts of reasons, that is thinner on the ground than it used to be.)
    The piece is beautifully done and worth a read. Maybe one to return to in a few months. If it ages well the world is going to look quite dark.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,920
    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
    Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.

    "But there's a lab there in that very city!"

    🤔
    Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
    The whole 52 in the same sequence? That would be a "Hamlet by a monkey" type of happening. You'd die waiting for the first sentence.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,217
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 25% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-2)
    RFM: 24% (+4)
    LDM: 14% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @BMGResearch, 28-29 Jan.
    Changes w/ 26-27 Nov.

    Cmon Britain. We can do this. Get Reform to 40

    Nah, would be funnier to see them all drop a little and transfer to the LD and have them all on 22% each.
    Maybe the Greens could join in and all tie at 19%?

    It's quite nuts that a sensible party like the LDs are so held back by their leader that they can't make ground when all other parties are failing, and yet a 2nd bunch of the insane could come up on the rails.

    It’s not the leader.

    Lab and Con are on core vote. Reform is the anti-Lib Dems. The Greens are Spare Labour - Corbynites if you are lucky.

    Where are the Lib Dems going to get liberal democratic votes from?
    I am not sure there really exists a core vote for any party. Even @HYUFD, the only Tory in the PB village, is now flirting with Reform.

    LDs are the most transfer friendly of parties and can squeeze Labour, Green and One Nation Tories fairly readily, hence the formidable by-election machine, though can get similarly squeezed elsewhere. Further gains at the next GE are not easy, but not unlikely either. Voters know now who is the challenger in their seat.
    No I will be Tory until the party goes extinct. Only if it does would I go Reform, which it would likely merge with anyway or LD
    See you at a future LD do then @HYUFD 😇
  • glwglw Posts: 10,169
    .

    glw said:

    What does the Very Stable Genius have to say this morning (in the US)?

    The “Tariff Lobby,” headed by the Globalist, and always wrong, Wall Street Journal, is working hard to justify Countries like Canada, Mexico, China, and too many others to name, continue the decades long RIPOFF OF AMERICA, both with regard to TRADE, CRIME, AND POISONOUS DRUGS that are allowed to so freely flow into AMERICA. THOSE DAYS ARE OVER! The USA has major deficits with Canada, Mexico, and China (and almost all countries!), owes 36 Trillion Dollars, and we’re not going to be the “Stupid Country” any longer. MAKE YOUR PRODUCT IN THE USA AND THERE ARE NO TARIFFS! Why should the United States lose TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN SUBSIDIZING OTHER COUNTRIES, and why should these other countries pay a small fraction of the cost of what USA citizens pay for Drugs and Pharmaceuticals, as an example? THIS WILL BE THE GOLDEN AGE OF AMERICA! WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!). BUT WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, AND IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID. WE ARE A COUNTRY THAT IS NOW BEING RUN WITH COMMON SENSE — AND THE RESULTS WILL BE SPECTACULAR!!!


    We pay hundreds of Billions of Dollars to SUBSIDIZE Canada. Why? There is no reason. We don’t need anything they have. We have unlimited Energy, should make our own Cars, and have more Lumber than we can ever use. Without this massive subsidy, Canada ceases to exist as a viable Country. Harsh but true! Therefore, Canada should become our Cherished 51st State. Much lower taxes, and far better military protection for the people of Canada — AND NO TARIFFS!


    Absolutely raving nuts. Also dumb as a box of rocks.
    Did he (Trump) actually post this?

    If he was in any other position, the nurse would be wheeling him away with the comment, "Sure, sure grandad; now let's get your hot chocolate made and you tucked up into bed."
    Yes he did.

    Those are thoughts direct from the mind of the leader of the free world.

    https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,915
    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
    Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.

    "But there's a lab there in that very city!"

    🤔
    Do you believe the Chinese government's statistics that suggest only 5,000 people out of their population of 1.4 billion died with Covid?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,106
    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
    I have had premonitions in dreams in the past, strange vivid dreams that come true a few days later. Mostly these have been personal matters to do with family. I wonder myself if there is something supernatural, or merely my subconscious assembling a story from pieces that my conscious has not.
    I had the Kinabalu thing last October with Geoff Capes. One day explaining to a European colleague who he was - first time I’d thought about him in many years - next day his death is announced.

    A sort of variant of Bader Meinhof syndrome.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,598
    glw said:

    .

    glw said:

    What does the Very Stable Genius have to say this morning (in the US)?

    The “Tariff Lobby,” headed by the Globalist, and always wrong, Wall Street Journal, is working hard to justify Countries like Canada, Mexico, China, and too many others to name, continue the decades long RIPOFF OF AMERICA, both with regard to TRADE, CRIME, AND POISONOUS DRUGS that are allowed to so freely flow into AMERICA. THOSE DAYS ARE OVER! The USA has major deficits with Canada, Mexico, and China (and almost all countries!), owes 36 Trillion Dollars, and we’re not going to be the “Stupid Country” any longer. MAKE YOUR PRODUCT IN THE USA AND THERE ARE NO TARIFFS! Why should the United States lose TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN SUBSIDIZING OTHER COUNTRIES, and why should these other countries pay a small fraction of the cost of what USA citizens pay for Drugs and Pharmaceuticals, as an example? THIS WILL BE THE GOLDEN AGE OF AMERICA! WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!). BUT WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, AND IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID. WE ARE A COUNTRY THAT IS NOW BEING RUN WITH COMMON SENSE — AND THE RESULTS WILL BE SPECTACULAR!!!


    We pay hundreds of Billions of Dollars to SUBSIDIZE Canada. Why? There is no reason. We don’t need anything they have. We have unlimited Energy, should make our own Cars, and have more Lumber than we can ever use. Without this massive subsidy, Canada ceases to exist as a viable Country. Harsh but true! Therefore, Canada should become our Cherished 51st State. Much lower taxes, and far better military protection for the people of Canada — AND NO TARIFFS!


    Absolutely raving nuts. Also dumb as a box of rocks.
    Did he (Trump) actually post this?

    If he was in any other position, the nurse would be wheeling him away with the comment, "Sure, sure grandad; now let's get your hot chocolate made and you tucked up into bed."
    Yes he did.

    Those are thoughts direct from the mind of the leader of the free world.

    https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump
    You can't put a tariff on freedom!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,108

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
    Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.

    "But there's a lab there in that very city!"

    🤔
    Do you believe the Chinese government's statistics that suggest only 5,000 people out of their population of 1.4 billion died with Covid?
    No
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,920

    Do we like Trump?

    A British writer penned the best description of Donald Trump I’ve ever read:

    “Why do some British people not like Donald Trump?”

    A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem. For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace – all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed

    Yes, he has no redeeming features at all. That's very unusual in a human being.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,217
    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
    Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.

    "But there's a lab there in that very city!"

    🤔
    Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
    Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,141

    Interesting thread from an economist on how the Trump administration plans to reset the international financial system:

    https://x.com/rebeleconprof/status/1886065413592666590

    Except it doesn't work - what the US needs to do is reduce it's borrowing costs and if they send inflation sky high those borrowing costs are going to increase with that inflation...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,999
    ...
    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @atrupar

    Draw your own conclusions, but Donald Trump is not behaving like a leader who expects democratic accountability for himself or his party next year or in 2028.

    (1) Even if he does respect the Constitution, which seems most unlikely given his many crimes against it but is not impossible, he will face no further democratic accountability - if he’s not a dictator he’s term limited and if he is it’s irrelevant;

    (2) The Republicans are not his party (historically he’s linked more to the Democrats). He’s only using them for his own ends, essentially ego, money, power lust and gratification thereof. Since he has never shown the slightest sign of caring for anyone or anything except himself and to a lesser extent one of his daughters, why should he care what happens to the Republicans?
    Which begs the question, why are Republicans not up in arms?

    @Scaramucci
    Why isn’t there more organized, dissent? Public servants need to explain the danger. It has to be elected officials getting together to stop this sort of crazy nonsense. A few Republicans could change the course of history and save their own party.
    Because the remaining ones are either so cowed they won't oppose him or just as bad as he is.

    Not doing the right things because you are afraid to is a political disease we find on both sides of the Atlantic. The current UK government also suffers from this, as do many others in Europe. It is totally destructive and self-defeating.

    Indeed. Starmer knew from the moment May triggered Article 50 that Brexit would be a shit show. Now he is in Government he should be working hard to mitigate the disaster. Instead he has capitulated to Murdoch and Dacre. They hate him anyway so why doesn't he just ignore them.
    He should have been working hard to "mitigate the disaster" in opposition too, instead of trying to create it.
    There is not a great deal an opposition can do to mitigate a disastrous government policy other than criticise said policy or demand a referendum to overturn thre policy before it is implemented.

    My point was since they have been given the opportunity to actually do something to make Brexit at least a little less dreadful, Labour have singularly failed (so far) to grasp the nettle.
    Support an alternative instead of mindlessly blocking everything in a doomed attempt to overturn the biggest democratic vote in British history?

    Insofar as what we have is a suboptimal settlement (and it's certainly not a disaster unless you're a committed Eurofederalist), it's at least in part because too many people on the losing side didn't actually accept that they had lost and spent years trying to reverse the loss instead of going "ok, we wouldn't have wanted to start from here but we're here now, what's the best way forward?"

    That being the case, it probably shouldn't be a surprise that in government they haven't shown any ability to move forward.
    The best thing about democracy is that we don’t have to accept shit
    We do if more people choose shit than those who don't. The advisory, non- binding Brexit Referendum is a case in point.
    Rare to see both adjectives that show the person is clueless deployed right next to each other.
    I don't see why one can't magnify the point by utilising both. Still I am an ill educated serf and I bow to your greater knowledge.

    Although I tend to resort to personal insults only when I find I have lost the argument.
    (1) Zero is not magnified when multiplied by zero

    (2) Passing judgement on the quality of your argument is not a personal insult

    (3) Using "utilising" instead of "using"...
    1. I don't consider either adjective to be of zero value.
    2. How you remain on the Brexit train baffles me. Can you not assimilate data?
    3. I am not even sure there is a rule I have broken here, if I have, whatever.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,445

    Interesting thread from an economist on how the Trump administration plans to reset the international financial system:

    https://x.com/rebeleconprof/status/1886065413592666590

    Interesting indeed. And (unsarcastically) possibly true. This would lead to a global devaluation of the dollar. What would be the optimal investment strategy for somebody in the UK? Buy GBP, buy EUR, sell USD, buy gold, what?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,920

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
    Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.

    "But there's a lab there in that very city!"

    🤔
    Do you believe the Chinese government's statistics that suggest only 5,000 people out of their population of 1.4 billion died with Covid?
    I do not.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,598
    eek said:

    Interesting thread from an economist on how the Trump administration plans to reset the international financial system:

    https://x.com/rebeleconprof/status/1886065413592666590

    Except it doesn't work - what the US needs to do is reduce it's borrowing costs and if they send inflation sky high those borrowing costs are going to increase with that inflation...
    Create a surplus and then inflate away the existing debt?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,445

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:
    Interesting, yes. Also a bit horrifying... :(
    It's not a 'bit' horrifying. It's horrifying!
    I know. I don't know what to do about it. The West is collapsing. America is redefining itself as a brutish, thuggish hegemon in North (and South?) America, willing to use force against its nominal allies. The world is splitting into three hemispheres (sic): the American, the Russian, and the Chinese. We are adrift and our rulers are idiots. I don't know how to fix it. Even if I attach bombs to drones and assassinate people, it would just inspire sympathy for the dead and their replacement by worse people. We are leaving a terrible world for our children and grandchildren.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,340
    edited February 2

    Do we like Trump?

    A British writer penned the best description of Donald Trump I’ve ever read:

    “Why do some British people not like Donald Trump?”

    A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem. For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace – all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed

    I wouldn't say Obama was well endowed with wisdom - see his disastrously feeble reactions to Russia in Ukraine and Syria, or his idiotic quote to Romney, who tried to warm him about Russia, that "the 1980s are calling, they want their foreign policy back". His compassion deficit was shown by the record number of deportations on his watch and the conditions in which many of those detained were housed. And his lack of credibility was obvious when he failed to close Guanatanamo, despite promising to do so repeatedly when he was running for office.

    Nor was he particularly blessed with humility, self-awareness or grace, having published two autobiographies before he even achieved anything and accepting the stupidest Nobel Peace Prize award ever.

    He may have been a better man than Biden or Trump, but those are the lowest of low bars.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652
    edited February 2
    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    Daily Mail comments on his death largely of the ‘RIP Legend’ variety.

    For the average Daily Mail reader Tony Martin was a candidate for sainthood (Guardian readers may take a different view).

    I am expecting Reform MPs and GB news presenters to be wearing black ties tomorrow

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14352275/farmer-tony-martin-shot-killed-teenager-dies.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,624
    glw said:

    .

    glw said:

    What does the Very Stable Genius have to say this morning (in the US)?

    The “Tariff Lobby,” headed by the Globalist, and always wrong, Wall Street Journal, is working hard to justify Countries like Canada, Mexico, China, and too many others to name, continue the decades long RIPOFF OF AMERICA, both with regard to TRADE, CRIME, AND POISONOUS DRUGS that are allowed to so freely flow into AMERICA. THOSE DAYS ARE OVER! The USA has major deficits with Canada, Mexico, and China (and almost all countries!), owes 36 Trillion Dollars, and we’re not going to be the “Stupid Country” any longer. MAKE YOUR PRODUCT IN THE USA AND THERE ARE NO TARIFFS! Why should the United States lose TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN SUBSIDIZING OTHER COUNTRIES, and why should these other countries pay a small fraction of the cost of what USA citizens pay for Drugs and Pharmaceuticals, as an example? THIS WILL BE THE GOLDEN AGE OF AMERICA! WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!). BUT WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, AND IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID. WE ARE A COUNTRY THAT IS NOW BEING RUN WITH COMMON SENSE — AND THE RESULTS WILL BE SPECTACULAR!!!


    We pay hundreds of Billions of Dollars to SUBSIDIZE Canada. Why? There is no reason. We don’t need anything they have. We have unlimited Energy, should make our own Cars, and have more Lumber than we can ever use. Without this massive subsidy, Canada ceases to exist as a viable Country. Harsh but true! Therefore, Canada should become our Cherished 51st State. Much lower taxes, and far better military protection for the people of Canada — AND NO TARIFFS!


    Absolutely raving nuts. Also dumb as a box of rocks.
    Did he (Trump) actually post this?

    If he was in any other position, the nurse would be wheeling him away with the comment, "Sure, sure grandad; now let's get your hot chocolate made and you tucked up into bed."
    Yes he did.

    Those are thoughts direct from the mind of the leader of the free world.

    https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump
    Calling those 'thoughts' is pushing the definition somewhat.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,450
    Off topic, do we expect clarity soon on which of May's local elections we will get.

    Wiki states could be as few as 5 shires going ahead with the counties - Cambs, Herts, Notts, Staffs and Lancs.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,999

    eek said:

    Interesting thread from an economist on how the Trump administration plans to reset the international financial system:

    https://x.com/rebeleconprof/status/1886065413592666590

    Except it doesn't work - what the US needs to do is reduce it's borrowing costs and if they send inflation sky high those borrowing costs are going to increase with that inflation...
    Create a surplus and then inflate away the existing debt?
    I thought inflation was a BAD way to naturally reduce debt.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,598

    eek said:

    Interesting thread from an economist on how the Trump administration plans to reset the international financial system:

    https://x.com/rebeleconprof/status/1886065413592666590

    Except it doesn't work - what the US needs to do is reduce it's borrowing costs and if they send inflation sky high those borrowing costs are going to increase with that inflation...
    Create a surplus and then inflate away the existing debt?
    I thought inflation was a BAD way to naturally reduce debt.
    He'll be able to claim he's created more millionaires than any president in history.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,092
    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
    And what of the other 2000 chats that didn’t relate to someone who you then find out just died? Humans (and I suspect all or most animals) are really good at spotting signals. It’s a necessary trait from back in the African savanna/cave/jungle etc. Trouble is it goes a bit wrong. Hence we say faces in clouds or Jesus in a slice of toast, and notice odd coincidences, and give them a huge level of significance. It’s like my next door neighbour who tells me every time he wins big at the bookies, but he doesn’t come round that often…
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,619
    Pro_Rata said:

    Off topic, do we expect clarity soon on which of May's local elections we will get.

    Wiki states could be as few as 5 shires going ahead with the counties - Cambs, Herts, Notts, Staffs and Lancs.

    The media abhors a vacuum. They will go all in on the mayoralties.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,141
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Interesting thread from an economist on how the Trump administration plans to reset the international financial system:

    https://x.com/rebeleconprof/status/1886065413592666590

    Except it doesn't work - what the US needs to do is reduce it's borrowing costs and if they send inflation sky high those borrowing costs are going to increase with that inflation...
    Create a surplus and then inflate away the existing debt?
    I thought inflation was a BAD way to naturally reduce debt.
    He'll be able to claim he's created more millionaires than any president in history.
    He'll have to be going some to beat the Weimar and Mugabe governments.
    The US has a far larger population than Weimar Germany and Mugabe Zimbabwe though...
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    edited February 2
    Delete due to cock up on the quote attribution front.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,445
    edited February 2
    Bestubbled slut of our past nightmares, @SeanT, has also squeezed out a Speccie article on censored LLMs, which you can find here: https://archive.is/LAqjB
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 25% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-2)
    RFM: 24% (+4)
    LDM: 14% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @BMGResearch, 28-29 Jan.
    Changes w/ 26-27 Nov.

    Cmon Britain. We can do this. Get Reform to 40

    Gives Labour 253, Conservatives 189, Reform and LDs 72 so likely Labour minority government with LD support

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=25&LAB=25&LIB=14&Reform=24&Green=8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024
    IMO SKS Lab get circa 20% in GE 2029 only half of what they got in the high water mark of 2017 and Reform circa 30%
    .
    That changes if Lab becomes more compassionate and Labour
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,624
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Interesting thread from an economist on how the Trump administration plans to reset the international financial system:

    https://x.com/rebeleconprof/status/1886065413592666590

    Except it doesn't work - what the US needs to do is reduce it's borrowing costs and if they send inflation sky high those borrowing costs are going to increase with that inflation...
    Create a surplus and then inflate away the existing debt?
    I thought inflation was a BAD way to naturally reduce debt.
    He'll be able to claim he's created more millionaires than any president in history.
    He'll have to be going some to beat the Weimar and Mugabe governments.
    The US has a far larger population than Weimar Germany and Mugabe Zimbabwe though...
    Yes, but if he's to create more millionaires than in the Ruhr crisis it would have to be around one-quarter to one-third of the US population. That would suggest disastrous levels of inflation, at the very least.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 393
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Interesting thread from an economist on how the Trump administration plans to reset the international financial system:

    https://x.com/rebeleconprof/status/1886065413592666590

    Except it doesn't work - what the US needs to do is reduce it's borrowing costs and if they send inflation sky high those borrowing costs are going to increase with that inflation...
    Create a surplus and then inflate away the existing debt?
    I thought inflation was a BAD way to naturally reduce debt.
    He'll be able to claim he's created more millionaires than any president in history.
    He'll have to be going some to beat the Weimar and Mugabe governments.
    He sets them up for you, doesn't he.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Scott_xP said:

    @duncanweldon.bsky.social‬

    Trade wars with Canada, Mexico & China and with the EU still to come are a rare opportunity to quote Babylon 5 on a geo-economic issue.
    “Only an idiot fights a war on two fronts. Only the heir to the throne of the kingdom of idiots would fight a war on twelve fronts”.

    What excuse is he going to devise to slap massive tariffs on the UK? Sometimes feels like anything that can go wrong here, will. It's only a matter of time before the gulf stream collapses and London gets obliterated by an asteroid strike.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,803
    pigeon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @duncanweldon.bsky.social‬

    Trade wars with Canada, Mexico & China and with the EU still to come are a rare opportunity to quote Babylon 5 on a geo-economic issue.
    “Only an idiot fights a war on two fronts. Only the heir to the throne of the kingdom of idiots would fight a war on twelve fronts”.

    What excuse is he going to devise to slap massive tariffs on the UK? Sometimes feels like anything that can go wrong here, will. It's only a matter of time before the gulf stream collapses and London gets obliterated by an asteroid strike.
    Sweet relief
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,666
    @charlieangus104.bsky.social‬

    Here's a fact most Americans don't know:
    The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world.
    The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits.
    We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,373
    Scott_xP said:

    @charlieangus104.bsky.social‬

    Here's a fact most Americans don't know:
    The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world.
    The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits.
    We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.

    Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559

    ...

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @atrupar

    Draw your own conclusions, but Donald Trump is not behaving like a leader who expects democratic accountability for himself or his party next year or in 2028.

    (1) Even if he does respect the Constitution, which seems most unlikely given his many crimes against it but is not impossible, he will face no further democratic accountability - if he’s not a dictator he’s term limited and if he is it’s irrelevant;

    (2) The Republicans are not his party (historically he’s linked more to the Democrats). He’s only using them for his own ends, essentially ego, money, power lust and gratification thereof. Since he has never shown the slightest sign of caring for anyone or anything except himself and to a lesser extent one of his daughters, why should he care what happens to the Republicans?
    Which begs the question, why are Republicans not up in arms?

    @Scaramucci
    Why isn’t there more organized, dissent? Public servants need to explain the danger. It has to be elected officials getting together to stop this sort of crazy nonsense. A few Republicans could change the course of history and save their own party.
    Because the remaining ones are either so cowed they won't oppose him or just as bad as he is.

    Not doing the right things because you are afraid to is a political disease we find on both sides of the Atlantic. The current UK government also suffers from this, as do many others in Europe. It is totally destructive and self-defeating.

    Indeed. Starmer knew from the moment May triggered Article 50 that Brexit would be a shit show. Now he is in Government he should be working hard to mitigate the disaster. Instead he has capitulated to Murdoch and Dacre. They hate him anyway so why doesn't he just ignore them.
    He should have been working hard to "mitigate the disaster" in opposition too, instead of trying to create it.
    There is not a great deal an opposition can do to mitigate a disastrous government policy other than criticise said policy or demand a referendum to overturn thre policy before it is implemented.

    My point was since they have been given the opportunity to actually do something to make Brexit at least a little less dreadful, Labour have singularly failed (so far) to grasp the nettle.
    Support an alternative instead of mindlessly blocking everything in a doomed attempt to overturn the biggest democratic vote in British history?

    Insofar as what we have is a suboptimal settlement (and it's certainly not a disaster unless you're a committed Eurofederalist), it's at least in part because too many people on the losing side didn't actually accept that they had lost and spent years trying to reverse the loss instead of going "ok, we wouldn't have wanted to start from here but we're here now, what's the best way forward?"

    That being the case, it probably shouldn't be a surprise that in government they haven't shown any ability to move forward.
    The best thing about democracy is that we don’t have to accept shit
    We do if more people choose shit than those who don't. The advisory, non- binding Brexit Referendum is a case in point.
    Rare to see both adjectives that show the person is clueless deployed right next to each other.
    I don't see why one can't magnify the point by utilising both. Still I am an ill educated serf and I bow to your greater knowledge.

    Although I tend to resort to personal insults only when I find I have lost the argument.
    (1) Zero is not magnified when multiplied by zero

    (2) Passing judgement on the quality of your argument is not a personal insult

    (3) Using "utilising" instead of "using"...
    1. I don't consider either adjective to be of zero value.
    2. How you remain on the Brexit train baffles me. Can you not assimilate data?
    3. I am not even sure there is a rule I have broken here, if I have, whatever.
    (1) No, you wouldn't. Those like you who didn't realise the referendum was politically binding caused a lot of trouble in 2016-9 and led to PM Johnson.
    (2) I can even do correlation does not equal causation, especially when a parallel problem comes along. Any minor loss caused by no longer being in the EU is dwarfed by the economic disaster that was lockdown.
    (3) Horrible management-speak.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,377
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    I see the most-read article on the Spectator is a ridiculous Threnody for Empire

    Written by one raddled old tart who used to post on here called @SeanT. Who knows what misadventures he is on? Well, an archive link is here: https://archive.is/SCjpE

    Clement Freud, the Liberal MP, television cook and dogfood salesman, used to write for the Sporting Life, and often he'd pad out his column with cooking tips; for instance, if driving to Epsom for the Derby, wrap salmon fillets in tin foil and place them in the engine bay to be poached en route (as opposed to en croute). This Sean chap has pulled off the same trick in the Spectator with his cocktail recipe and poem.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,404
    edited February 2
    Gadfly said:

    FPT...

    Carnyx said:

    Gadfly said:

    "A woman still waiting for her father's funeral seven weeks after his death says the new certification system is "awful"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyn8lv4g00o

    My brother-in-law has been in a similar situation. In his case, an interim death certificate made a funeral possible after 4 weeks, but he cannot proceed with administrating the estate because the solicitors will not release the Will until a full certificate has been issued.
    I rather think the solicitor is fibbing about releasing the will - though your b-i-l can't do much, there's no reason not to let him see the will as such. If he is an executor he has every right, not least because of the likelihood of funeral and burial wishes. Of course banks won't release money etc till the death cert is out, but he can at least see what's what.
    I fully agree, not least because my brother-in-law is the sole survivor and executor. Somewhat bizarrely, he can apply for probate using the interim certificate, but of course he needs the will, which the solicitor will not release without the full certificate.

    My understanding is that the coroner has indicated that the full certificate will be released imminently, but I do feel this amounts to an unintended consequence of the new legislation.
    Indeed.

    I'm surprised none of our assorted legal eagles on PB have commented on this solicitor notion that they can sit on the will like bloody dinosaurs* and taking about as long to hatch.

    *Large, non-avian kind.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,377
    @TheScreamingEagles is based up north, isn't he?

    The Mail has an article on Bradford, our crime-ridden City of Culture. One was struck by this detail:-

    The drug dealers are brazen as hell. The addicts queue up outside the solicitors waiting for their gear.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14320625/Inside-city-spending-406m-year-crime-Bradfords-poorest-streets-taken-drug-dealing-violence-sex-workers.html
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    Pagan2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @charlieangus104.bsky.social‬

    Here's a fact most Americans don't know:
    The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world.
    The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits.
    We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.

    Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
    Due to crazy legislation over here most of ours is now. Lots of beers reducing their alcohol content, many to a pathetic 3.4%, to save money on the duty paid.

    A craft cider maker I used to buy bag in a boxes from during Covid now produces mainly 3.4% piss. Cider made naturally ferments out to around 7.4%

    Mind you it doesn’t affect fantastic authentic foreign beers we get, like Madri, the spirit of Madrid.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,999

    Interesting thread from an economist on how the Trump administration plans to reset the international financial system:

    https://x.com/rebeleconprof/status/1886065413592666590

    I do admire your cheery disposition as economic fire and brimstone rain down upon us.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,999
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 25% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-2)
    RFM: 24% (+4)
    LDM: 14% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @BMGResearch, 28-29 Jan.
    Changes w/ 26-27 Nov.

    Cmon Britain. We can do this. Get Reform to 40

    Gives Labour 253, Conservatives 189, Reform 83 and LDs 72 so likely Labour minority government with LD support

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=25&LAB=25&LIB=14&Reform=24&Green=8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024
    UNS is a fiction. With 49% of the vote I suspect RefCon do better than you suggest.

    Although there is always swingback.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,404
    edited February 2
    Pagan2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @charlieangus104.bsky.social‬

    Here's a fact most Americans don't know:
    The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world.
    The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits.
    We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.

    Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
    Hmm, I see it is by order of the Province's Premier Mr Ford. I didn't realise that thge LCBO is the monopoly supplier of *all* [edit] imported alcohol in the Province, including to restaurants etc. if I understand it right. That's about 2/5 of the Canuck population. And they sell almost 1bn dollars (presumably the Canadian money and US billion) worth pa.

    Same happening in other Provinces, too.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/02/ontario-to-remove-us-alcohol-from-shelves-after-trumps-tariffs-announcement.html
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,746
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ericlipton.nytimes.com‬

    F.A.A.’s Main Warning System for Pilots Is Down, U.S. Official Says www.nytimes.com/2025/02/02/u... Mike ives

    @elizabethodr.bsky.social‬

    Wonder if Elon has his trusted people in the software...
    "fixing it'??

    Why do these links with dots and the like no longer work.

    It was the same with bondezegou’s link to Wikipedia about pandemics.
    My Wikipedia link doesn’t work because the hyphen in it confused Vanilla, which seems to think URLs should not contain such things.

    Here, these are BlueSky handles, but put on their own outside BlueSky, they don’t work as links. Instead, Vanilla interprets them as pointers to accounts here.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,141
    Taz said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @charlieangus104.bsky.social‬

    Here's a fact most Americans don't know:
    The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world.
    The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits.
    We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.

    Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
    Due to crazy legislation over here most of ours is now. Lots of beers reducing their alcohol content, many to a pathetic 3.4%, to save money on the duty paid.

    A craft cider maker I used to buy bag in a boxes from during Covid now produces mainly 3.4% piss. Cider made naturally ferments out to around 7.4%

    Mind you it doesn’t affect fantastic authentic foreign beers we get, like Madri, the spirit of Madrid.
    For those that don’t get the joke Madri is an invented brand only made in Burton on Trent (and now separately in Canada
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,106
    edited February 2
    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @charlieangus104.bsky.social‬

    Here's a fact most Americans don't know:
    The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world.
    The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits.
    We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.

    Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
    Hmm, I see it is by order of the Province's Premier Mr Ford. I didn't realise that thge LCBO is the monopoly supplier of *all* [edit] imported alcohol in the Province, including to restaurants etc. if I understand it right. That's about 2/5 of the Canuck population. And they sell almost 1bn dollars (presumably the Canadian money and US billion) worth pa.

    Same happening in other Provinces, too.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/02/ontario-to-remove-us-alcohol-from-shelves-after-trumps-tariffs-announcement.html
    I suspect most in the US, including probably the president, underestimate the size of Canada’s (or indeed Ontario’s) GDP and population. The fact they talk of the 51st state, not the 51st to 60th states, is telling.

    Good opportunity for English winemakers. As a fellow cool climate wine culture Canadians should have a natural affinity for our stuff. Scandinavian liquor monopolies have been quite good buyers so hopefully LCBO will follow suit.

    A quick search of their website site turns up zero English wines.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,404
    edited February 2

    Interesting thread from an economist on how the Trump administration plans to reset the international financial system:

    https://x.com/rebeleconprof/status/1886065413592666590

    I do admire your cheery disposition as economic fire and brimstone rain down upon us.
    I will be genuinely interested to see what wonderful new benefits WG finds in the Trumpist tariffs when they are erected on UK exports to the US.

    Rather like the council marketing manager for Herculaneum pointing out how all this powdered basalt is great for soil fertility.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,915
    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @charlieangus104.bsky.social‬

    Here's a fact most Americans don't know:
    The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world.
    The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits.
    We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.

    Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
    Hmm, I see it is by order of the Province's Premier Mr Ford. I didn't realise that thge LCBO is the monopoly supplier of *all* [edit] imported alcohol in the Province, including to restaurants etc. if I understand it right. That's about 2/5 of the Canuck population. And they sell almost 1bn dollars (presumably the Canadian money and US billion) worth pa.

    Same happening in other Provinces, too.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/02/ontario-to-remove-us-alcohol-from-shelves-after-trumps-tariffs-announcement.html
    I suspect most in the US, including probably the president, underestimate the size of Canada’s (or indeed Ontario’s) GDP and population. The fact they talk of the 51st state, not the 51st to 60th states, is telling.

    Good opportunity for English winemakers. As a fellow cool climate wine culture Canadians should have a natural affinity for our stuff. Scandinavian liquor monopolies have been quite good buyers so hopefully LCBO will follow suit.
    51st to 63rd!
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 520
    The economic effect of Trump's polocies will put everybody off tout de suit ....
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,945
    pigeon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @duncanweldon.bsky.social‬

    Trade wars with Canada, Mexico & China and with the EU still to come are a rare opportunity to quote Babylon 5 on a geo-economic issue.
    “Only an idiot fights a war on two fronts. Only the heir to the throne of the kingdom of idiots would fight a war on twelve fronts”.

    What excuse is he going to devise to slap massive tariffs on the UK? Sometimes feels like anything that can go wrong here, will. It's only a matter of time before the gulf stream collapses and London gets obliterated by an asteroid strike.
    Does he need an excuse?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,156
    viewcode said:

    Interesting thread from an economist on how the Trump administration plans to reset the international financial system:

    https://x.com/rebeleconprof/status/1886065413592666590

    Interesting indeed. And (unsarcastically) possibly true. This would lead to a global devaluation of the dollar. What would be the optimal investment strategy for somebody in the UK? Buy GBP, buy EUR, sell USD, buy gold, what?
    The bit I’m sceptical about is “plan”. It might play out like that, but it’s more likely unintended consequences than strategy.

    And I’m not sure there is an optimal strategy for us (other than reducing what we borrow to fund current spending - which applies both to individuals and nationally.)
    What happens next is inherently unpredictable. It’s rather likely to be very bad, but could play out in a lot of different ways.

    As a country with a large trade deficit (including essentials like food and energy), a lot of debt, and a withered manufacturing base, we are rather vulnerable to external shocks.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,239
    Britain Trump latest:



    Nigel Farage MP

    @Nigel_Farage


    The local elections are due to take place in 88 days.

    Reform UK are hosting the biggest ever launch rally in modern British political history.

    Book your tickets early and join thousands to be a part of history.

    📍 28.03.2025
    🏟️ Arena Birmingham
    🎟️ http://reformparty.uk/rally
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,085
    Carnyx said:

    Gadfly said:

    FPT...

    Carnyx said:

    Gadfly said:

    "A woman still waiting for her father's funeral seven weeks after his death says the new certification system is "awful"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyn8lv4g00o

    My brother-in-law has been in a similar situation. In his case, an interim death certificate made a funeral possible after 4 weeks, but he cannot proceed with administrating the estate because the solicitors will not release the Will until a full certificate has been issued.
    I rather think the solicitor is fibbing about releasing the will - though your b-i-l can't do much, there's no reason not to let him see the will as such. If he is an executor he has every right, not least because of the likelihood of funeral and burial wishes. Of course banks won't release money etc till the death cert is out, but he can at least see what's what.
    I fully agree, not least because my brother-in-law is the sole survivor and executor. Somewhat bizarrely, he can apply for probate using the interim certificate, but of course he needs the will, which the solicitor will not release without the full certificate.

    My understanding is that the coroner has indicated that the full certificate will be released imminently, but I do feel this amounts to an unintended consequence of the new legislation.
    Indeed.

    I'm surprised none of our assorted legal eagles on PB have commented on this solicitor notion that they can sit on the will like bloody dinosaurs* and taking about as long to hatch.

    *Large, non-avian kind.
    I think the solicitor in question should be the subject of a complaint to the SRA.

    The will belongs to the Executor(s), not to the solicitor.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,746
    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
    Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.

    "But there's a lab there in that very city!"

    🤔
    Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
    But at least 2 people in London will have exactly the same number of hairs on their head.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,904
    edited February 2
    kjh said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
    Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.

    "But there's a lab there in that very city!"

    🤔
    Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
    Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
    The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68.
    10 followed by 68 zeros.

    To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe.
    And 10^57 atoms in a typical star.
    So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe.
    10 followed by 80 zeros.

    That's a lot.

    It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands.
    Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,404
    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @charlieangus104.bsky.social‬

    Here's a fact most Americans don't know:
    The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world.
    The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits.
    We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.

    Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
    Hmm, I see it is by order of the Province's Premier Mr Ford. I didn't realise that thge LCBO is the monopoly supplier of *all* [edit] imported alcohol in the Province, including to restaurants etc. if I understand it right. That's about 2/5 of the Canuck population. And they sell almost 1bn dollars (presumably the Canadian money and US billion) worth pa.

    Same happening in other Provinces, too.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/02/ontario-to-remove-us-alcohol-from-shelves-after-trumps-tariffs-announcement.html
    I suspect most in the US, including probably the president, underestimate the size of Canada’s (or indeed Ontario’s) GDP and population. The fact they talk of the 51st state, not the 51st to 60th states, is telling.

    Good opportunity for English winemakers. As a fellow cool climate wine culture Canadians should have a natural affinity for our stuff. Scandinavian liquor monopolies have been quite good buyers so hopefully LCBO will follow suit.

    A quick search of their website site turns up zero English wines.
    Of course, Mr Trump is not someone who cares for English wine, Scottish single malts, or indeed any other alcohol. But his customers (can one still speak of his customers in his hotels and golf clubs?) do.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-alcohol-sober-surgeon-general-cancer-labels-2025-1
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,474

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @charlieangus104.bsky.social‬

    Here's a fact most Americans don't know:
    The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world.
    The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits.
    We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.

    Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
    Hmm, I see it is by order of the Province's Premier Mr Ford. I didn't realise that thge LCBO is the monopoly supplier of *all* [edit] imported alcohol in the Province, including to restaurants etc. if I understand it right. That's about 2/5 of the Canuck population. And they sell almost 1bn dollars (presumably the Canadian money and US billion) worth pa.

    Same happening in other Provinces, too.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/02/ontario-to-remove-us-alcohol-from-shelves-after-trumps-tariffs-announcement.html
    I suspect most in the US, including probably the president, underestimate the size of Canada’s (or indeed Ontario’s) GDP and population. The fact they talk of the 51st state, not the 51st to 60th states, is telling.

    Good opportunity for English winemakers. As a fellow cool climate wine culture Canadians should have a natural affinity for our stuff. Scandinavian liquor monopolies have been quite good buyers so hopefully LCBO will follow suit.
    51st to 63rd!
    Only if you were to include the territories as states.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,156
    Another reason you don’t want the French operating your nuclear power plants (I think it’s not dissimilar in Germany, whose plants are also eminently suitable for restarting/life extension).

    BELGIUM ENDING NUCLEAR PHASEOUT

    The new government has just agreed to scrap the 2003 phaseout law, the world's most extreme.

    Nuclear was half of Belgium's power. The cheap half.

    Now comes a nasty battle with the owner, a French gas company.

    They want the reactors gone.

    https://x.com/energybants/status/1885686199307690307
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,746

    Interesting thread from an economist on how the Trump administration plans to reset the international financial system:

    https://x.com/rebeleconprof/status/1886065413592666590

    I’m unconvinced Trump is that Machiavellian and clever.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,108
    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @charlieangus104.bsky.social‬

    Here's a fact most Americans don't know:
    The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world.
    The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits.
    We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.

    Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
    Hmm, I see it is by order of the Province's Premier Mr Ford. I didn't realise that thge LCBO is the monopoly supplier of *all* [edit] imported alcohol in the Province, including to restaurants etc. if I understand it right. That's about 2/5 of the Canuck population. And they sell almost 1bn dollars (presumably the Canadian money and US billion) worth pa.

    Same happening in other Provinces, too.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/02/ontario-to-remove-us-alcohol-from-shelves-after-trumps-tariffs-announcement.html
    I suspect most in the US, including probably the president, underestimate the size of Canada’s (or indeed Ontario’s) GDP and population. The fact they talk of the 51st state, not the 51st to 60th states, is telling.

    Good opportunity for English winemakers. As a fellow cool climate wine culture Canadians should have a natural affinity for our stuff. Scandinavian liquor monopolies have been quite good buyers so hopefully LCBO will follow suit.

    A quick search of their website site turns up zero English wines.
    The Canadians do an excellent Eiswein equivalent.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,404
    edited February 2
    Sean_F said:

    Carnyx said:

    Gadfly said:

    FPT...

    Carnyx said:

    Gadfly said:

    "A woman still waiting for her father's funeral seven weeks after his death says the new certification system is "awful"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyn8lv4g00o

    My brother-in-law has been in a similar situation. In his case, an interim death certificate made a funeral possible after 4 weeks, but he cannot proceed with administrating the estate because the solicitors will not release the Will until a full certificate has been issued.
    I rather think the solicitor is fibbing about releasing the will - though your b-i-l can't do much, there's no reason not to let him see the will as such. If he is an executor he has every right, not least because of the likelihood of funeral and burial wishes. Of course banks won't release money etc till the death cert is out, but he can at least see what's what.
    I fully agree, not least because my brother-in-law is the sole survivor and executor. Somewhat bizarrely, he can apply for probate using the interim certificate, but of course he needs the will, which the solicitor will not release without the full certificate.

    My understanding is that the coroner has indicated that the full certificate will be released imminently, but I do feel this amounts to an unintended consequence of the new legislation.
    Indeed.

    I'm surprised none of our assorted legal eagles on PB have commented on this solicitor notion that they can sit on the will like bloody dinosaurs* and taking about as long to hatch.

    *Large, non-avian kind.
    I think the solicitor in question should be the subject of a complaint to the SRA.

    The will belongs to the Executor(s), not to the solicitor.
    Indeed - and although I was not the executor I'd have made a formal complaint in my own case if the lay executor involved hadn't quietly sent me a transcript of the instructions for the disposition of the ashes (which were very different from the impression I'd got from the solicitor - and crucially so, given the complications involved in fulfilling her wishes).

    Flagging this up to @Gadfly .
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,746

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
    Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.

    "But there's a lab there in that very city!"

    🤔
    Do you believe the Chinese government's statistics that suggest only 5,000 people out of their population of 1.4 billion died with Covid?
    You keep repeating that. The Chinese government does not say only 5000 died.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @charlieangus104.bsky.social‬

    Here's a fact most Americans don't know:
    The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world.
    The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits.
    We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.

    Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
    Due to crazy legislation over here most of ours is now. Lots of beers reducing their alcohol content, many to a pathetic 3.4%, to save money on the duty paid.

    A craft cider maker I used to buy bag in a boxes from during Covid now produces mainly 3.4% piss. Cider made naturally ferments out to around 7.4%

    Mind you it doesn’t affect fantastic authentic foreign beers we get, like Madri, the spirit of Madrid.
    For those that don’t get the joke Madri is an invented brand only made in Burton on Trent (and now separately in Canada
    It’s brewed mainly in Tadcaster actually, and is 4.6% which is in its favour in a sea of 3.4% tap water.

    Tried it once. I’ve had better.

    https://theweek.com/culture-life/food-drink/madri-row-brews-over-yorkshires-spanish-lager
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    To be honest leaving the pro Beijing liars in the WHO is an executive order of Trump's that I can get behind. What I find repulsive is his threat to annexe Canada - on twitter FFS.

    I can't believe Canada would want to trade world status for 2 senators in Washington. And would the US, particularly Trumpland, really want them. They would immediately become the No.1 state in EC votes and you can almost guarantee that would be anti Republican.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ericlipton.nytimes.com‬

    F.A.A.’s Main Warning System for Pilots Is Down, U.S. Official Says www.nytimes.com/2025/02/02/u... Mike ives

    @elizabethodr.bsky.social‬

    Wonder if Elon has his trusted people in the software...
    "fixing it'??

    Why do these links with dots and the like no longer work.

    It was the same with bondezegou’s link to Wikipedia about pandemics.
    My Wikipedia link doesn’t work because the hyphen in it confused Vanilla, which seems to think URLs should not contain such things.

    Here, these are BlueSky handles, but put on their own outside BlueSky, they don’t work as links. Instead, Vanilla interprets them as pointers to accounts here.
    Found the page anyway, interesting. The Plague of Justinian sounded awful.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,920
    Barnesian said:

    kjh said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
    Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.

    "But there's a lab there in that very city!"

    🤔
    Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
    Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
    The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68.
    10 followed by 68 zeros.

    To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe.
    And 10^57 atoms in a typical star.
    So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe.
    10 followed by 80 zeros.

    That's a lot.

    It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands.
    Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
    What odds would PB numerates assign to my Tony Martin miracle?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,404
    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @charlieangus104.bsky.social‬

    Here's a fact most Americans don't know:
    The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world.
    The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits.
    We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.

    Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
    Hmm, I see it is by order of the Province's Premier Mr Ford. I didn't realise that thge LCBO is the monopoly supplier of *all* [edit] imported alcohol in the Province, including to restaurants etc. if I understand it right. That's about 2/5 of the Canuck population. And they sell almost 1bn dollars (presumably the Canadian money and US billion) worth pa.

    Same happening in other Provinces, too.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/02/ontario-to-remove-us-alcohol-from-shelves-after-trumps-tariffs-announcement.html
    I suspect most in the US, including probably the president, underestimate the size of Canada’s (or indeed Ontario’s) GDP and population. The fact they talk of the 51st state, not the 51st to 60th states, is telling.

    Good opportunity for English winemakers. As a fellow cool climate wine culture Canadians should have a natural affinity for our stuff. Scandinavian liquor monopolies have been quite good buyers so hopefully LCBO will follow suit.

    A quick search of their website site turns up zero English wines.
    Of course, Mr Trump is not someone who cares for English wine, Scottish single malts, or indeed any other alcohol. But his customers (can one still speak of his customers in his hotels and golf clubs?) do.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-alcohol-sober-surgeon-general-cancer-labels-2025-1
    Edit: point re customers is cos I dunno if he's divested himself of his businesses now he's Pres.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,701

    To be honest leaving the pro Beijing liars in the WHO is an executive order of Trump's that I can get behind. What I find repulsive is his threat to annexe Canada - on twitter FFS.

    I can't believe Canada would want to trade world status for 2 senators in Washington. And would the US, particularly Trumpland, really want them. They would immediately become the No.1 state in EC votes and you can almost guarantee that would be anti Republican.

    Having lived in Canada, most of it defines itself by not being the USA.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,239
    And so it begins...

    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    2h
    We should start talking about impeachment
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,701
    There are no coincidences. You create your own reality. Which is as insubstantial as dreams.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,746

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @charlieangus104.bsky.social‬

    Here's a fact most Americans don't know:
    The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world.
    The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits.
    We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.

    Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
    Hmm, I see it is by order of the Province's Premier Mr Ford. I didn't realise that thge LCBO is the monopoly supplier of *all* [edit] imported alcohol in the Province, including to restaurants etc. if I understand it right. That's about 2/5 of the Canuck population. And they sell almost 1bn dollars (presumably the Canadian money and US billion) worth pa.

    Same happening in other Provinces, too.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/02/ontario-to-remove-us-alcohol-from-shelves-after-trumps-tariffs-announcement.html
    I suspect most in the US, including probably the president, underestimate the size of Canada’s (or indeed Ontario’s) GDP and population. The fact they talk of the 51st state, not the 51st to 60th states, is telling.

    Good opportunity for English winemakers. As a fellow cool climate wine culture Canadians should have a natural affinity for our stuff. Scandinavian liquor monopolies have been quite good buyers so hopefully LCBO will follow suit.

    A quick search of their website site turns up zero English wines.
    The Canadians do an excellent Eiswein equivalent.
    I tasted that while at a social event from the 11th International Conference on the Physiology of Food and Fluid Intake, paired with the 3rd Food Choice Conference. We had a wine tasting at a vineyard. They asked if us if we had any questions about wine making and tasting. They were… not prepared for the detailed nature of our questions.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,746
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @charlieangus104.bsky.social‬

    Here's a fact most Americans don't know:
    The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world.
    The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits.
    We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.

    Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
    Hmm, I see it is by order of the Province's Premier Mr Ford. I didn't realise that thge LCBO is the monopoly supplier of *all* [edit] imported alcohol in the Province, including to restaurants etc. if I understand it right. That's about 2/5 of the Canuck population. And they sell almost 1bn dollars (presumably the Canadian money and US billion) worth pa.

    Same happening in other Provinces, too.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/02/ontario-to-remove-us-alcohol-from-shelves-after-trumps-tariffs-announcement.html
    I suspect most in the US, including probably the president, underestimate the size of Canada’s (or indeed Ontario’s) GDP and population. The fact they talk of the 51st state, not the 51st to 60th states, is telling.

    Good opportunity for English winemakers. As a fellow cool climate wine culture Canadians should have a natural affinity for our stuff. Scandinavian liquor monopolies have been quite good buyers so hopefully LCBO will follow suit.

    A quick search of their website site turns up zero English wines.
    Of course, Mr Trump is not someone who cares for English wine, Scottish single malts, or indeed any other alcohol. But his customers (can one still speak of his customers in his hotels and golf clubs?) do.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-alcohol-sober-surgeon-general-cancer-labels-2025-1
    Edit: point re customers is cos I dunno if he's divested himself of his businesses now he's Pres.
    Of course he hasn’t.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,404

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @charlieangus104.bsky.social‬

    Here's a fact most Americans don't know:
    The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) is the largest purchaser of wine by dollar value in the world.
    The LCBO has shut the flow of all American beer, wine, spirits.
    We will drink "Freedom wines" from our allies and beer from our communities.

    Not having american beer to purchase is a plus its gnats piss
    Hmm, I see it is by order of the Province's Premier Mr Ford. I didn't realise that thge LCBO is the monopoly supplier of *all* [edit] imported alcohol in the Province, including to restaurants etc. if I understand it right. That's about 2/5 of the Canuck population. And they sell almost 1bn dollars (presumably the Canadian money and US billion) worth pa.

    Same happening in other Provinces, too.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/02/ontario-to-remove-us-alcohol-from-shelves-after-trumps-tariffs-announcement.html
    I suspect most in the US, including probably the president, underestimate the size of Canada’s (or indeed Ontario’s) GDP and population. The fact they talk of the 51st state, not the 51st to 60th states, is telling.

    Good opportunity for English winemakers. As a fellow cool climate wine culture Canadians should have a natural affinity for our stuff. Scandinavian liquor monopolies have been quite good buyers so hopefully LCBO will follow suit.

    A quick search of their website site turns up zero English wines.
    Of course, Mr Trump is not someone who cares for English wine, Scottish single malts, or indeed any other alcohol. But his customers (can one still speak of his customers in his hotels and golf clubs?) do.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-alcohol-sober-surgeon-general-cancer-labels-2025-1
    Edit: point re customers is cos I dunno if he's divested himself of his businesses now he's Pres.
    Of course he hasn’t.
    Thanks. Just wanted to be fair as I didn't know.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,439

    Britain Trump latest:



    Nigel Farage MP

    @Nigel_Farage


    The local elections are due to take place in 88 days.

    Reform UK are hosting the biggest ever launch rally in modern British political history.

    Book your tickets early and join thousands to be a part of history.

    📍 28.03.2025
    🏟️ Arena Birmingham
    🎟️ http://reformparty.uk/rally

    But why Birmingham? Because of the Golden Bull of Birmingham, 1356, and Birmingham's rich part in the tapestry of the history of Vereinigtes Königreich?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,210

    To be honest leaving the pro Beijing liars in the WHO is an executive order of Trump's that I can get behind. What I find repulsive is his threat to annexe Canada - on twitter FFS.

    I can't believe Canada would want to trade world status for 2 senators in Washington. And would the US, particularly Trumpland, really want them. They would immediately become the No.1 state in EC votes and you can almost guarantee that would be anti Republican.

    Maybe Mr Trump just wants the territory - did he actually say anything about giving the people votes?

    Good evening, everybody.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,239
    I mean, seriously, is there a single futurist or forecaster who, say, ten years ago, had the US becoming the enemy of the free West and no longer allied with democracies across the Commonwealth and EU?

    This Trump/Vance shit is off the scale.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,108
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ericlipton.nytimes.com‬

    F.A.A.’s Main Warning System for Pilots Is Down, U.S. Official Says www.nytimes.com/2025/02/02/u... Mike ives

    @elizabethodr.bsky.social‬

    Wonder if Elon has his trusted people in the software...
    "fixing it'??

    Why do these links with dots and the like no longer work.

    It was the same with bondezegou’s link to Wikipedia about pandemics.
    My Wikipedia link doesn’t work because the hyphen in it confused Vanilla, which seems to think URLs should not contain such things.

    Here, these are BlueSky handles, but put on their own outside BlueSky, they don’t work as links. Instead, Vanilla interprets them as pointers to accounts here.
    Found the page anyway, interesting. The Plague of Justinian sounded awful.
    The whole period AD 500 to roughly AD 1000 seems disastrous for humanity in Eurasia. I’m surprised we, as Eurasians, survived without being replaced by Africans or East Asians.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    Britain Trump latest:



    Nigel Farage MP

    @Nigel_Farage


    The local elections are due to take place in 88 days.

    Reform UK are hosting the biggest ever launch rally in modern British political history.

    Book your tickets early and join thousands to be a part of history.

    📍 28.03.2025
    🏟️ Arena Birmingham
    🎟️ http://reformparty.uk/rally

    If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,156
    edited February 2
    Barnesian said:

    kjh said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
    Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.

    "But there's a lab there in that very city!"

    🤔
    Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
    Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
    The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68.
    10 followed by 68 zeros.

    To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe.
    And 10^57 atoms in a typical star.
    So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe.
    10 followed by 80 zeros.

    That's a lot.

    It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands.
    Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
    That’s the number of possible deals, not the number of possible hands.
    Not the same thing.

    How many different ways are there to deal the same four hands ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ericlipton.nytimes.com‬

    F.A.A.’s Main Warning System for Pilots Is Down, U.S. Official Says www.nytimes.com/2025/02/02/u... Mike ives

    @elizabethodr.bsky.social‬

    Wonder if Elon has his trusted people in the software...
    "fixing it'??

    Why do these links with dots and the like no longer work.

    It was the same with bondezegou’s link to Wikipedia about pandemics.
    My Wikipedia link doesn’t work because the hyphen in it confused Vanilla, which seems to think URLs should not contain such things.

    Here, these are BlueSky handles, but put on their own outside BlueSky, they don’t work as links. Instead, Vanilla interprets them as pointers to accounts here.
    Found the page anyway, interesting. The Plague of Justinian sounded awful.
    The whole period AD 500 to roughly AD 1000 seems disastrous for humanity in Eurasia. I’m surprised we, as Eurasians, survived without being replaced by Africans or East Asians.
    The time around 536 seemed especially awful. 536 seemed terrible but the years after not great.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,598
    https://x.com/kassyakiva/status/1886133718659588197

    Rubio informed Panama's President Mulino that Trump
    "has made a preliminary determination that the current position of influence and control of the Chinese Communist Party over the Panama Canal area is a threat to the canal and represents a violation of the Treaty Concerning the Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Panama Canal. 

    Secretary Rubio made clear that this status quo is unacceptable and that absent immediate changes, it would require the United States to take measures necessary to protect its rights under the Treaty."
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,803
    edited February 2
    algarkirk said:

    Britain Trump latest:



    Nigel Farage MP

    @Nigel_Farage


    The local elections are due to take place in 88 days.

    Reform UK are hosting the biggest ever launch rally in modern British political history.

    Book your tickets early and join thousands to be a part of history.

    📍 28.03.2025
    🏟️ Arena Birmingham
    🎟️ http://reformparty.uk/rally

    But why Birmingham? Because of the Golden Bull of Birmingham, 1356, and Birmingham's rich part in the tapestry of the history of Vereinigtes Königreich?
    Probably was just an arena with no bookings. TBF the Midlands is quite Brexity
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,239
    Ah, Trade Wars, how we have missed your unintended economic and political fuck ups.

    Still, always good to catch up with an old friend.

  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612

    Britain Trump latest:



    Nigel Farage MP

    @Nigel_Farage


    The local elections are due to take place in 88 days.

    Reform UK are hosting the biggest ever launch rally in modern British political history.

    Book your tickets early and join thousands to be a part of history.

    📍 28.03.2025
    🏟️ Arena Birmingham
    🎟️ http://reformparty.uk/rally

    They’ve been up in Durham today. It was on the local news.

    Nigel on message and it seemed packed. Presumably it was free entry.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,914

    I mean, seriously, is there a single futurist or forecaster who, say, ten years ago, had the US becoming the enemy of the free West and no longer allied with democracies across the Commonwealth and EU?

    This Trump/Vance shit is off the scale.

    Nine years ago, maybe.

    Trump I started with various threats to Europe, and suspicions that he was in hoc to Russian money.

    Sadly the democracies did nothing, really, to respond or to prepare for Trump II.

    We are returning - at least for four years - to the 19th century, when the U.S. was an isolationist rival to other Great Powers.

    It will be interesting to see how Trump treats the four American “deputies”: UK, Japan, Australia and Israel.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,835
    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @l_stone
    #BREAKING: Ontario Premier Doug Ford announces starting Tuesday, the province is removing American products from LCBO shelves & also from its catalogue so restaurants and retailers can’t order or restock U.S. products. #onpoli

    https://x.com/l_stone/status/1886047979301167465

    @AllieRenison

    That’s the third province in Canada to announce such retaliation to Trump’s tariffs (and two of the three premiers are Conservatives)

    Imagine having a government Liquor Control Board decide what alcoholic drinks you can buy.
    Deciding.
    It's the subjunctive.
    It was ugly.
    All doubts could have been avoided with better, punchier writing

    “Imagine. A government Liquor Control Board decides what alcoholic drinks you can buy! 🫣”

    Better. And no dispute over grammar
    That would have been clearer. As it was, one couldn't tell whether WilliamGlen meant to write 'deciding', or 'to decide', which would have altered the meaning. I presume he meant 'deciding', so that's why I wrote what I did.
    Who gives a toss? We knew what @williamglenn meant and we aren't school children.
    Who gives a toss about what any of us posts here? He can choose to give what I said consideration of not.
    But you were wrong.
    No I wasn't. The choice of 'decide' was ambiguous and unattractive. That poster usually does better.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    Britain Trump latest:



    Nigel Farage MP

    @Nigel_Farage


    The local elections are due to take place in 88 days.

    Reform UK are hosting the biggest ever launch rally in modern British political history.

    Book your tickets early and join thousands to be a part of history.

    📍 28.03.2025
    🏟️ Arena Birmingham
    🎟️ http://reformparty.uk/rally

    If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
    Is this his Nurembirmingham rally?

    Which (just about) works as a joke but a lot of people would take the remark seriously.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,239

    Britain Trump latest:



    Nigel Farage MP

    @Nigel_Farage


    The local elections are due to take place in 88 days.

    Reform UK are hosting the biggest ever launch rally in modern British political history.

    Book your tickets early and join thousands to be a part of history.

    📍 28.03.2025
    🏟️ Arena Birmingham
    🎟️ http://reformparty.uk/rally

    If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
    A rally is not "mass participatory democracy"

    It is, in this case, a load of people clapping and whooping as Farage and some other guests trot out a load of nostrums.

    mass participatory democracy is actually a really boring delegate conference with composites and agenda and points of order.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,092
    Barnesian said:

    kjh said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wildly off topic. My wife and I have these little chats sometimes and this morning the main subject of it was Tony Martin (the farmer). We'd never discussed him before to my recollection. He wasn't in the news and hadn't been for ages. Now it's announced he's died. Incredible. The sort of thing that makes you believe in forces beyond our ken.

    An academic bloke who researched this sort of stuff fairly rigorously is the late Ian Stevenson, University of Virginia. His apparently robust data, much about reincarnation and also weird cognitions and precognitions like this one (this one is fairly mild by his standards, I think he would it put down as interesting coincidence) is bizarre and extraordinary. Personally i find his stuff uncomfortable because I would mostly prefer him to be wrong.
    Co-incidences are far more common than lay people think.

    "But there's a lab there in that very city!"

    🤔
    Maybe also sometimes less common. I find it hard to believe, though I think it must be true, that it is highly unlikely that two identical hands from 52 cards have ever been dealt in the whole of history.
    Again it is down to the maths. When I first heard that one (quite recently) I thought it can't be true, but when you do the maths the number is mind boggling.
    The number of possible hands is 52! which is roughly 10^68.
    10 followed by 68 zeros.

    To put it in context there are roughly 10^23 stars in the observable universe.
    And 10^57 atoms in a typical star.
    So roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe.
    10 followed by 80 zeros.

    That's a lot.

    It would be a huge coincidence if you dealt two identical hands.
    Unless the pack wasn't shuffled.
    Even shuffling won’t give that level. Assume two packs start the same (I.e. in order of suites and numbers). How many manipulations take place in the shuffle? Quite plausible that you would get a match on those assumptions, given enough games and a small enough shuffle. The big numbers all assume completely random choice of cards.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,156

    I mean, seriously, is there a single futurist or forecaster who, say, ten years ago, had the US becoming the enemy of the free West and no longer allied with democracies across the Commonwealth and EU?

    This Trump/Vance shit is off the scale.

    "Trump will bring order here quite quickly. All of them [Europe] will soon be at their master's feet, gently wagging their tails." - Putin
    https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1886000331139502189
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,920

    And so it begins...

    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    2h
    We should start talking about impeachment

    I rate it less than evens he does the term.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,239

    I mean, seriously, is there a single futurist or forecaster who, say, ten years ago, had the US becoming the enemy of the free West and no longer allied with democracies across the Commonwealth and EU?

    This Trump/Vance shit is off the scale.

    Nine years ago, maybe.

    Trump I started with various threats to Europe, and suspicions that he was in hoc to Russian money.

    Sadly the democracies did nothing, really, to respond or to prepare for Trump II.

    We are returning - at least for four years - to the 19th century, when the U.S. was an isolationist rival to other Great Powers.

    It will be interesting to see how Trump treats the four American “deputies”: UK, Japan, Australia and Israel.
    He does seem to have been remarkably civil to Starmer.

    So far...
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,166

    Britain Trump latest:



    Nigel Farage MP

    @Nigel_Farage


    The local elections are due to take place in 88 days.

    Reform UK are hosting the biggest ever launch rally in modern British political history.

    Book your tickets early and join thousands to be a part of history.

    📍 28.03.2025
    🏟️ Arena Birmingham
    🎟️ http://reformparty.uk/rally

    If people want to try and tie Reform to Trumpism you'll have to do better than this. Holding a rally? Isn't that want political parties generally do? Has mass participatory democracy gone out of fashion with the establishment parties?
    Is this his Nurembirmingham rally?

    Which (just about) works as a joke but a lot of people would take the remark seriously.
    Smoke...fire....
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,092
    On Tony Martin you probably have a really easy one question test of a persons world view. Although it’s probably also susceptible to the yes minister waybof asking the question. Personally think he was within his rights to fire a gun to scare the miscreants off, but not to aim at them, unless they were coming for him. But then I wasn’t there and have no idea how scared he was, or how much he feared for his life.
This discussion has been closed.