I'm surprised that Dr. Foxy didn't mention the potential bad healh effects of globalization. The more we travel around, the more we give opportunities for dangerous, and even deadly, microbes to spread.
(For the record: I think globalization is, net, a benefit to the world, but I think we in the West have been too casual about the costs in recent decades.)
The Spanish flu got everywhere, even in the pre-globalisation age... It just took a little longer
I think globalisation started in the great age of exploration, commencing in the late 15th century. Not good for the Aztecs and Incas, but we got tomatos and syphilis in return.
Yvette Cooper says the UK will make it illegal to own AI tools to make images of child sexual abuse.
"AI Tools"? Does that mean '/usr/bin/python'? Or very specifically '/usr/local/bin/make-kiddy-fiddler-images.app'?
Or... god forfend... does it mean they have no idea what they're talking about? Which I can't possibly imagine is the case.
It would be nice to have even one single person in a senior government position who actually understands technology.
Or more likely it’s bad journalism, and what Cooper has actually proposed is to outlaw specific tools and manuals that enable the use of AI to make images of child sexual abuse.
And as this is Britain not America the law won’t have been dreamt up by a politician overnight but crafted by home office officials with input from the police, probably over several months and quite possibly under both this and the previous government.
Yes, these "duh, stupid politicians" posts are getting a bit tiresome. People really need to grow up a bit. Nobody is going to be outlawing Python.
Edit: Not that that means the legislation will necessarily be effective or devoid of adverse consequences. Life isn't simple.
Notable that across the world, people are (pretending) to bend the knee.
Including Sir Keith “Kid Starver” & his government.
We’ve even seen The Mandelbrot saying nice things about Big Orange.
What is this “Mandelbrot” thing? Did I miss some faux pas he made about German bread? I really can’t work out if it’s a “whoosh” and I don’t get the joke.
Peter Mandelson is a politician of slippery loyalty, chiefly to himself.
The Mandlebrot set is a set of complex numbers z, where z=x +iy. It contains all points z which do not go to infinity when z(n+1)=z(n)^2 + c, where c is a constant. The boundary of the set is fractal and looks like a turtle with acne.
By conflating the two into the phrase "Mandelbrot set", @Malmesbury characterises Mandelson as convoluted and self-referential, which is quite fitting.
Next week, on "Viewcode points out the bleeding obvious": how phrases like "EUSSR" and "Remoaner" encapsulate political concepts in a single word.
Interestingly, the MP in that tweet is Mike Martin, who has the distinction of me having read (some of) his PhD thesis. In those times when I am commuting without Internet access, I have some downloaded things on my tablet to read, of which that is one.
Yvette Cooper says the UK will make it illegal to own AI tools to make images of child sexual abuse.
"AI Tools"? Does that mean '/usr/bin/python'? Or very specifically '/usr/local/bin/make-kiddy-fiddler-images.app'?
Or... god forfend... does it mean they have no idea what they're talking about? Which I can't possibly imagine is the case.
It would be nice to have even one single person in a senior government position who actually understands technology.
Or more likely it’s bad journalism, and what Cooper has actually proposed is to outlaw specific tools and manuals that enable the use of AI to make images of child sexual abuse.
And as this is Britain not America the law won’t have been dreamt up by a politician overnight but crafted by home office officials with input from the police, probably over several months and quite possibly under both this and the previous government.
From the BBC article you link to :
"outlaw specific tools and manuals that enable the use of AI to make images of child sexual abuse"
You really, honestly, don't see how broad that is? If it was truly specific then they'd name and shame. Or at least give a definition.
"outlaw specific tools and manuals that enable the use of pencils to make...."
I'm all for locking away kiddy-fiddlers. But just shoving 'AI' into an overly broad law is not great.
Interestingly, the MP in that tweet is Mike Martin, who has the distinction of me having read (some of) his PhD thesis. In those times when I am commuting without Internet access, I have some downloaded things on my tablet to read, of which that is one.
The Black Death did pretty good at expanding through Eurasia and Africa, long before the 15th century. And there are are earlier examples in McNeill's "Plagues and Peoples", of course.
(Pedant alert: I would say globalization was pretty well advanced by 1918.)
Yvette Cooper says the UK will make it illegal to own AI tools to make images of child sexual abuse.
"AI Tools"? Does that mean '/usr/bin/python'? Or very specifically '/usr/local/bin/make-kiddy-fiddler-images.app'?
Or... god forfend... does it mean they have no idea what they're talking about? Which I can't possibly imagine is the case.
It would be nice to have even one single person in a senior government position who actually understands technology.
And as this is Britain not America the law won’t have been dreamt up by a politician overnight but crafted by home office officials with input from the police, probably over several months and quite possibly under both this and the previous government.
No guarantee it is not barmy or unworkable even with that process, sadly. We shall see.
If a paradigm has shifted, it’s the fall of the free trade pro business conservative centre right replaced by the nationalist, protectionist “fuck business” populist right.
Yes, I think that's correct
Britain has enjoyed or endured spectacular levels of immigration in the last 10-20 years. We are constantly assured this contributes to growth. Yet, as @Sandpit shows, the reality is that GDP per capita has not grown at all even as our population has exploded by many millions, putting pressure on everything - from sewage systems to landscapes, from education to health. Meanwhile our cities crumble and we have very real and unpleasant social problems stemming from the migration
Now we are told "another 5 million must come in the next ten years". Why? What the fuck? We don't want any more. Polls show that voters - by almost 2 to 1 - would rather have LESS immigration EVEN IF IT COMES AT THE EXPENSE OF GROWTH
No one buys the "growth" shit any more, and even if they do, they are past caring
I predict that the party which most convincingly argues that it will curtail immigration in 2028 will do very well, and will likely win. Labour cannot do that, the Tories can't, not any more, so we are left with Reform
Was talking with a builder yesterday working alone. They can’t hire labourers or apprentices. The work is too hard apparently. Not the first time I heard that story.
Someone has to do the hard work.
Yes, robots. And I'm quite serious
Love to see a robot repairing this
Knock it down, with the people inside, and start over again. Such is the will of the robot overlords.
Yvette Cooper says the UK will make it illegal to own AI tools to make images of child sexual abuse.
"AI Tools"? Does that mean '/usr/bin/python'? Or very specifically '/usr/local/bin/make-kiddy-fiddler-images.app'?
Or... god forfend... does it mean they have no idea what they're talking about? Which I can't possibly imagine is the case.
It would be nice to have even one single person in a senior government position who actually understands technology.
Or more likely it’s bad journalism, and what Cooper has actually proposed is to outlaw specific tools and manuals that enable the use of AI to make images of child sexual abuse.
And as this is Britain not America the law won’t have been dreamt up by a politician overnight but crafted by home office officials with input from the police, probably over several months and quite possibly under both this and the previous government.
Yes, these "duh, stupid politicians" posts are getting a bit tiresome. People really need to grow up a bit. Nobody is going to be outlawing Python.
Edit: Not that that means the legislation will necessarily be effective or devoid of adverse consequences. Life isn't simple.
They won't outlaw python, but will the law they propose allow the plod to just.. give your place the once over on suspicion of having python.
We've been here before. It's the over-broad, un-specific nature - the ill-defined, headline-grabbing nature of it that concerns me.
“Our trade policy rests firmly on the foundation of free and open markets. I recognize…the inescapable conclusion that all of history has taught: The freer the flow of world trade, the stronger the tides of human progress and peace among nations.” — Ronald Reagan
It is interesting that anti-globalisation used to be mostly a leftwing and often anti-american thing. The US forced everywhere to open up their markets for multinationals to make profits, no matter what the harm to local society, environment or economy. Now it's the US and the Republican party that wants to reverse free trade. Trump frames the US as a victim of globalisation, when the US has been a main beneficiary - it's just that the benefits have gone to a small minority in the US.
Globalisation only works when all countries partake in free trade. It doesn't work when countries like China manipulate it and unbalance trade for their own benefit. While I don't agree with tariffs on friendly nations, there is absolutely a case to be made for punitive tariffs against China by the western alliance and for reshoring industry and industrial jobs even if it means a higher price structure for consumers. The idea that lower prices are automatically better for the economy if the downside means fewer jobs as they all move to those countries with lower cost structures is a false one, as Germany is currently learning now that China has a markedly lower cost structure because German energy costs now match the rest of Europe without cheap gas from Russia.
The rise of parties like Reform, AfD, MAGA Republicans, National Rally, FdI, Vox etc... is inextricably linked to globalisation, you may find it easy to dismiss those who have been made jobless and thrust into poverty or welfare by it and suggest they didn't keep up with modern life, I don't. Countries need to look after their own and too many governments have been acting against their own populations interests for too long and now we're seeing the reaction from those people who feel betrayed. In the US the Dems are utterly discredited alongside the traditional Republicans who espoused free trade and impoverished their own citizens to help Chinese industry dominate the global economy. European countries are all heading down the same path.
You clearly did not study international economics and don't keep up with economic literature. The worst thing you can do if a foreign country is stupid enough to subsidise your consumers by paying them to buy its products is to retaliate, since you're forgoing your own opportunity to buy in the cheapest market. You're cutting off your nose to spite your face. Chinese industry has raised living standards worldwide (see e.g. How China's accession to the WTO affects global welfare (2021) or The Global Welfare Impact of China: Trade Integration and Technological Change, 2014) by producing goods people want to buy at a price they can afford. Countries "looking after their own" by imposing protectionist trade tariffs reduce living standards both in the short and in the long run - this is one of the few .
Indeed the issue with the response to China's manufacturing boom is that we have been too statist, seeking to protect industries that should have been closed down, and preventing the market from allocating labour and capital efficiently to sectors where we hold comparative advantage. See e.g. here for a discussion of the impact of labour market rigidity on the response to Chinese competition: https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/trade-nominal-rigidities-understanding-unemployment-and-welfare-effects-china-shock. The way to boost our manufacturing industry is not protecting inefficient companies and shafting consumers with tariffs, it's by raising productivity cutting the cost of inputs like energy, reducing payroll taxes, promoting labour flexibility and enabling factories to be built more quickly by liberalising planning.
Sadly, as ever, it is much easier to scapegoat foreigners than fix our own problems.
If a paradigm has shifted, it’s the fall of the free trade pro business conservative centre right replaced by the nationalist, protectionist “fuck business” populist right.
Yes, I think that's correct
Britain has enjoyed or endured spectacular levels of immigration in the last 10-20 years. We are constantly assured this contributes to growth. Yet, as @Sandpit shows, the reality is that GDP per capita has not grown at all even as our population has exploded by many millions, putting pressure on everything - from sewage systems to landscapes, from education to health. Meanwhile our cities crumble and we have very real and unpleasant social problems stemming from the migration
Now we are told "another 5 million must come in the next ten years". Why? What the fuck? We don't want any more. Polls show that voters - by almost 2 to 1 - would rather have LESS immigration EVEN IF IT COMES AT THE EXPENSE OF GROWTH
No one buys the "growth" shit any more, and even if they do, they are past caring
I predict that the party which most convincingly argues that it will curtail immigration in 2028 will do very well, and will likely win. Labour cannot do that, the Tories can't, not any more, so we are left with Reform
Was talking with a builder yesterday working alone. They can’t hire labourers or apprentices. The work is too hard apparently. Not the first time I heard that story.
Someone has to do the hard work.
Yes, robots. And I'm quite serious
Love to see a robot repairing this
Knock it down, with the people inside, and start over again. Such is the will of the robot overlords.
Notable that across the world, people are (pretending) to bend the knee.
Including Sir Keith “Kid Starver” & his government.
We’ve even seen The Mandelbrot saying nice things about Big Orange.
What is this “Mandelbrot” thing? Did I miss some faux pas he made about German bread? I really can’t work out if it’s a “whoosh” and I don’t get the joke.
Peter Mandelson is a politician of slippery loyalty, chiefly to himself.
The Mandlebrot set is a set of complex numbers z, where z=x +iy. It contains all points z which do not go to infinity when z(n+1)=z(n)^2 + c, where c is a constant. The boundary of the set is fractal and looks like a turtle with acne.
By conflating the two into the phrase "Mandelbrot set", @Malmesbury characterises Mandelson as convoluted and self-referential, which is quite fitting.
Next week, on "Viewcode points out the bleeding obvious": how phrases like "EUSSR" and "Remoaner" encapsulate political concepts in a single word.
I am stupid. It's the "Mandelbrot set". Ignore me.
No guarantee it is not barmy or unworkable even with that process, sadly. We shall see.
Even it it isn't barmy or unworkable almost everybody using such tools is already likely to be doing criminal things. You might stop hosting, distribution, and discussion of such tools in the UK, but that's pretty much meaningless. The people involved are already likely to be circumventing current laws and measures that are meant to stop the distribution of abuse material.
I'm sure it's well intentioned, like the recently proposed tightening of online knife sales, but will it be effective?
I'm skeptical that controlling AI/ML is ever likely to work.
Yvette Cooper says the UK will make it illegal to own AI tools to make images of child sexual abuse.
"AI Tools"? Does that mean '/usr/bin/python'? Or very specifically '/usr/local/bin/make-kiddy-fiddler-images.app'?
Or... god forfend... does it mean they have no idea what they're talking about? Which I can't possibly imagine is the case.
It would be nice to have even one single person in a senior government position who actually understands technology.
Or more likely it’s bad journalism, and what Cooper has actually proposed is to outlaw specific tools and manuals that enable the use of AI to make images of child sexual abuse.
And as this is Britain not America the law won’t have been dreamt up by a politician overnight but crafted by home office officials with input from the police, probably over several months and quite possibly under both this and the previous government.
From the BBC article you link to :
"outlaw specific tools and manuals that enable the use of AI to make images of child sexual abuse"
You really, honestly, don't see how broad that is? If it was truly specific then they'd name and shame. Or at least give a definition.
"outlaw specific tools and manuals that enable the use of pencils to make...."
I'm all for locking away kiddy-fiddlers. But just shoving 'AI' into an overly broad law is not great.
The proposed law will probably ban (accidentally) all pizzas *not* topped with pineapple wrapped in bacon.
Trump signs executive order at Mar a Lago imposing tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico's imports to US.
'President Donald Trump announced extraordinary new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China — signing the long-promised economic policy at his Mar-a-Lago club on Saturday. The Trump administration said tariffs are aimed at curbing the flow of drugs and undocumented immigrants into America, but they potentially risk substantial price increases for American consumers across a wide array of common goods.
The new policy represents a reversal of virtually duty-free trade between the three North American nations that’s existed for several years — and an expansion of a frosty trade war between China and the United States that has escalated over the course of the past two administrations.
As Trump has repeatedly promised over the past several months, the tariffs will amount to a significant 25% duty on all imports from Mexico and most goods from Canada and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods imported into the United States.'
“Our trade policy rests firmly on the foundation of free and open markets. I recognize…the inescapable conclusion that all of history has taught: The freer the flow of world trade, the stronger the tides of human progress and peace among nations.” — Ronald Reagan
It is interesting that anti-globalisation used to be mostly a leftwing and often anti-american thing. The US forced everywhere to open up their markets for multinationals to make profits, no matter what the harm to local society, environment or economy. Now it's the US and the Republican party that wants to reverse free trade. Trump frames the US as a victim of globalisation, when the US has been a main beneficiary - it's just that the benefits have gone to a small minority in the US.
Globalisation only works when all countries partake in free trade. It doesn't work when countries like China manipulate it and unbalance trade for their own benefit. While I don't agree with tariffs on friendly nations, there is absolutely a case to be made for punitive tariffs against China by the western alliance and for reshoring industry and industrial jobs even if it means a higher price structure for consumers. The idea that lower prices are automatically better for the economy if the downside means fewer jobs as they all move to those countries with lower cost structures is a false one, as Germany is currently learning now that China has a markedly lower cost structure because German energy costs now match the rest of Europe without cheap gas from Russia.
The rise of parties like Reform, AfD, MAGA Republicans, National Rally, FdI, Vox etc... is inextricably linked to globalisation, you may find it easy to dismiss those who have been made jobless and thrust into poverty or welfare by it and suggest they didn't keep up with modern life, I don't. Countries need to look after their own and too many governments have been acting against their own populations interests for too long and now we're seeing the reaction from those people who feel betrayed. In the US the Dems are utterly discredited alongside the traditional Republicans who espoused free trade and impoverished their own citizens to help Chinese industry dominate the global economy. European countries are all heading down the same path.
You clearly did not study international economics and don't keep up with economic literature. The worst thing you can do if a foreign country is stupid enough to subsidise your consumers by paying them to buy its products is to retaliate, since you're forgoing your own opportunity to buy in the cheapest market. You're cutting off your nose to spite your face. Chinese industry has raised living standards worldwide (see e.g. How China's accession to the WTO affects global welfare (2021) or The Global Welfare Impact of China: Trade Integration and Technological Change, 2014) by producing goods people want to buy at a price they can afford. Countries "looking after their own" by imposing protectionist trade tariffs reduce living standards both in the short and in the long run - this is one of the few .
Indeed the issue with the response to China's manufacturing boom is that we have been too statist, seeking to protect industries that should have been closed down, and preventing the market from allocating labour and capital efficiently to sectors where we hold comparative advantage. See e.g. here for a discussion of the impact of labour market rigidity on the response to Chinese competition: https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/trade-nominal-rigidities-understanding-unemployment-and-welfare-effects-china-shock. The way to boost our manufacturing industry is not protecting inefficient companies and shafting consumers with tariffs, it's by raising productivity cutting the cost of inputs like energy, reducing payroll taxes, promoting labour flexibility and enabling factories to be built more quickly by liberalising planning.
Sadly, as ever, it is much easier to scapegoat foreigners than fix our own problems.
The "sectors where we hold comparative advantage" is looking pretty fucking thin on the ground to be honest.
If a paradigm has shifted, it’s the fall of the free trade pro business conservative centre right replaced by the nationalist, protectionist “fuck business” populist right.
Yes, I think that's correct
Britain has enjoyed or endured spectacular levels of immigration in the last 10-20 years. We are constantly assured this contributes to growth. Yet, as @Sandpit shows, the reality is that GDP per capita has not grown at all even as our population has exploded by many millions, putting pressure on everything - from sewage systems to landscapes, from education to health. Meanwhile our cities crumble and we have very real and unpleasant social problems stemming from the migration
Now we are told "another 5 million must come in the next ten years". Why? What the fuck? We don't want any more. Polls show that voters - by almost 2 to 1 - would rather have LESS immigration EVEN IF IT COMES AT THE EXPENSE OF GROWTH
No one buys the "growth" shit any more, and even if they do, they are past caring
I predict that the party which most convincingly argues that it will curtail immigration in 2028 will do very well, and will likely win. Labour cannot do that, the Tories can't, not any more, so we are left with Reform
Was talking with a builder yesterday working alone. They can’t hire labourers or apprentices. The work is too hard apparently. Not the first time I heard that story.
Someone has to do the hard work.
Yes, robots. And I'm quite serious
Love to see a robot repairing this
Knock it down, with the people inside, and start over again. Such is the will of the robot overlords.
Can’t do that - it’s an irreplaceable cultural highlight:
No guarantee it is not barmy or unworkable even with that process, sadly. We shall see.
Even it it isn't barmy or unworkable almost everybody using such tools is already likely to be doing criminal things. You might stop hosting, distribution, and discussion of such tools in the UK, but that's pretty much meaningless. The people involved are already likely to be circumventing current laws and measures that are meant to stop the distribution of abuse material.
I'm sure it's well intentioned, like the recently proposed tightening of online knife sales, but will it be effective?
I'm skeptical that controlling AI/ML is ever likely to work.
“Our trade policy rests firmly on the foundation of free and open markets. I recognize…the inescapable conclusion that all of history has taught: The freer the flow of world trade, the stronger the tides of human progress and peace among nations.” — Ronald Reagan
It is interesting that anti-globalisation used to be mostly a leftwing and often anti-american thing. The US forced everywhere to open up their markets for multinationals to make profits, no matter what the harm to local society, environment or economy. Now it's the US and the Republican party that wants to reverse free trade. Trump frames the US as a victim of globalisation, when the US has been a main beneficiary - it's just that the benefits have gone to a small minority in the US.
Globalisation only works when all countries partake in free trade. It doesn't work when countries like China manipulate it and unbalance trade for their own benefit. While I don't agree with tariffs on friendly nations, there is absolutely a case to be made for punitive tariffs against China by the western alliance and for reshoring industry and industrial jobs even if it means a higher price structure for consumers. The idea that lower prices are automatically better for the economy if the downside means fewer jobs as they all move to those countries with lower cost structures is a false one, as Germany is currently learning now that China has a markedly lower cost structure because German energy costs now match the rest of Europe without cheap gas from Russia.
The rise of parties like Reform, AfD, MAGA Republicans, National Rally, FdI, Vox etc... is inextricably linked to globalisation, you may find it easy to dismiss those who have been made jobless and thrust into poverty or welfare by it and suggest they didn't keep up with modern life, I don't. Countries need to look after their own and too many governments have been acting against their own populations interests for too long and now we're seeing the reaction from those people who feel betrayed. In the US the Dems are utterly discredited alongside the traditional Republicans who espoused free trade and impoverished their own citizens to help Chinese industry dominate the global economy. European countries are all heading down the same path.
You clearly did not study international economics and don't keep up with economic literature. The worst thing you can do if a foreign country is stupid enough to subsidise your consumers by paying them to buy its products is to retaliate, since you're forgoing your own opportunity to buy in the cheapest market. You're cutting off your nose to spite your face. Chinese industry has raised living standards worldwide (see e.g. How China's accession to the WTO affects global welfare (2021) or The Global Welfare Impact of China: Trade Integration and Technological Change, 2014) by producing goods people want to buy at a price they can afford. Countries "looking after their own" by imposing protectionist trade tariffs reduce living standards both in the short and in the long run - this is one of the few .
Indeed the issue with the response to China's manufacturing boom is that we have been too statist, seeking to protect industries that should have been closed down, and preventing the market from allocating labour and capital efficiently to sectors where we hold comparative advantage. See e.g. here for a discussion of the impact of labour market rigidity on the response to Chinese competition: https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/trade-nominal-rigidities-understanding-unemployment-and-welfare-effects-china-shock. The way to boost our manufacturing industry is not protecting inefficient companies and shafting consumers with tariffs, it's by raising productivity cutting the cost of inputs like energy, reducing payroll taxes, promoting labour flexibility and enabling factories to be built more quickly by liberalising planning.
Sadly, as ever, it is much easier to scapegoat foreigners than fix our own problems.
The "sectors where we hold comparative advantage" is looking pretty fucking thin on the ground to be honest.
The other problem is a variant on the reason why free marketers don't like monopolies.
If you use subsidies etc to take over an industry, the resulting control can create enormous barriers to entry.
Trying to do electronics production in the UK, for example, now hits the problem that the competent supply chains are not present.
“Our trade policy rests firmly on the foundation of free and open markets. I recognize…the inescapable conclusion that all of history has taught: The freer the flow of world trade, the stronger the tides of human progress and peace among nations.” — Ronald Reagan
It is interesting that anti-globalisation used to be mostly a leftwing and often anti-american thing. The US forced everywhere to open up their markets for multinationals to make profits, no matter what the harm to local society, environment or economy. Now it's the US and the Republican party that wants to reverse free trade. Trump frames the US as a victim of globalisation, when the US has been a main beneficiary - it's just that the benefits have gone to a small minority in the US.
Globalisation only works when all countries partake in free trade. It doesn't work when countries like China manipulate it and unbalance trade for their own benefit. While I don't agree with tariffs on friendly nations, there is absolutely a case to be made for punitive tariffs against China by the western alliance and for reshoring industry and industrial jobs even if it means a higher price structure for consumers. The idea that lower prices are automatically better for the economy if the downside means fewer jobs as they all move to those countries with lower cost structures is a false one, as Germany is currently learning now that China has a markedly lower cost structure because German energy costs now match the rest of Europe without cheap gas from Russia.
The rise of parties like Reform, AfD, MAGA Republicans, National Rally, FdI, Vox etc... is inextricably linked to globalisation, you may find it easy to dismiss those who have been made jobless and thrust into poverty or welfare by it and suggest they didn't keep up with modern life, I don't. Countries need to look after their own and too many governments have been acting against their own populations interests for too long and now we're seeing the reaction from those people who feel betrayed. In the US the Dems are utterly discredited alongside the traditional Republicans who espoused free trade and impoverished their own citizens to help Chinese industry dominate the global economy. European countries are all heading down the same path.
You clearly did not study international economics and don't keep up with economic literature. The worst thing you can do if a foreign country is stupid enough to subsidise your consumers by paying them to buy its products is to retaliate, since you're forgoing your own opportunity to buy in the cheapest market. You're cutting off your nose to spite your face. Chinese industry has raised living standards worldwide (see e.g. How China's accession to the WTO affects global welfare (2021) or The Global Welfare Impact of China: Trade Integration and Technological Change, 2014) by producing goods people want to buy at a price they can afford. Countries "looking after their own" by imposing protectionist trade tariffs reduce living standards both in the short and in the long run - this is one of the few .
Indeed the issue with the response to China's manufacturing boom is that we have been too statist, seeking to protect industries that should have been closed down, and preventing the market from allocating labour and capital efficiently to sectors where we hold comparative advantage. See e.g. here for a discussion of the impact of labour market rigidity on the response to Chinese competition: https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/trade-nominal-rigidities-understanding-unemployment-and-welfare-effects-china-shock. The way to boost our manufacturing industry is not protecting inefficient companies and shafting consumers with tariffs, it's by raising productivity cutting the cost of inputs like energy, reducing payroll taxes, promoting labour flexibility and enabling factories to be built more quickly by liberalising planning.
Sadly, as ever, it is much easier to scapegoat foreigners than fix our own problems.
The "sectors where we hold comparative advantage" is looking pretty fucking thin on the ground to be honest.
Yes this kind of thinking inspires the question
What if everything is cheaper in China?
Do we just pack up and all move to Shenzhen for the Foxconn assembly lines? Or start substance farming 'cos nothing else is economically viable?
“Our trade policy rests firmly on the foundation of free and open markets. I recognize…the inescapable conclusion that all of history has taught: The freer the flow of world trade, the stronger the tides of human progress and peace among nations.” — Ronald Reagan
It is interesting that anti-globalisation used to be mostly a leftwing and often anti-american thing. The US forced everywhere to open up their markets for multinationals to make profits, no matter what the harm to local society, environment or economy. Now it's the US and the Republican party that wants to reverse free trade. Trump frames the US as a victim of globalisation, when the US has been a main beneficiary - it's just that the benefits have gone to a small minority in the US.
Globalisation only works when all countries partake in free trade. It doesn't work when countries like China manipulate it and unbalance trade for their own benefit. While I don't agree with tariffs on friendly nations, there is absolutely a case to be made for punitive tariffs against China by the western alliance and for reshoring industry and industrial jobs even if it means a higher price structure for consumers. The idea that lower prices are automatically better for the economy if the downside means fewer jobs as they all move to those countries with lower cost structures is a false one, as Germany is currently learning now that China has a markedly lower cost structure because German energy costs now match the rest of Europe without cheap gas from Russia.
The rise of parties like Reform, AfD, MAGA Republicans, National Rally, FdI, Vox etc... is inextricably linked to globalisation, you may find it easy to dismiss those who have been made jobless and thrust into poverty or welfare by it and suggest they didn't keep up with modern life, I don't. Countries need to look after their own and too many governments have been acting against their own populations interests for too long and now we're seeing the reaction from those people who feel betrayed. In the US the Dems are utterly discredited alongside the traditional Republicans who espoused free trade and impoverished their own citizens to help Chinese industry dominate the global economy. European countries are all heading down the same path.
You clearly did not study international economics and don't keep up with economic literature. The worst thing you can do if a foreign country is stupid enough to subsidise your consumers by paying them to buy its products is to retaliate, since you're forgoing your own opportunity to buy in the cheapest market. You're cutting off your nose to spite your face. Chinese industry has raised living standards worldwide (see e.g. How China's accession to the WTO affects global welfare (2021) or The Global Welfare Impact of China: Trade Integration and Technological Change, 2014) by producing goods people want to buy at a price they can afford. Countries "looking after their own" by imposing protectionist trade tariffs reduce living standards both in the short and in the long run - this is one of the few .
Indeed the issue with the response to China's manufacturing boom is that we have been too statist, seeking to protect industries that should have been closed down, and preventing the market from allocating labour and capital efficiently to sectors where we hold comparative advantage. See e.g. here for a discussion of the impact of labour market rigidity on the response to Chinese competition: https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/trade-nominal-rigidities-understanding-unemployment-and-welfare-effects-china-shock. The way to boost our manufacturing industry is not protecting inefficient companies and shafting consumers with tariffs, it's by raising productivity cutting the cost of inputs like energy, reducing payroll taxes, promoting labour flexibility and enabling factories to be built more quickly by liberalising planning.
Sadly, as ever, it is much easier to scapegoat foreigners than fix our own problems.
The "sectors where we hold comparative advantage" is looking pretty fucking thin on the ground to be honest.
The other problem is a variant on the reason why free marketers don't like monopolies.
If you use subsidies etc to take over an industry, the resulting control can create enormous barriers to entry.
Trying to do electronics production in the UK, for example, now hits the problem that the competent supply chains are not present.
One of our few genuine comparatives is higher education. World leading.
Now being burnt to the ground.
Yet Phillipson has nothing to say or to offer and no one seems to give a fuck.
Trump signs executive order at Mar a Lago imposing tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico's imports to US.
'President Donald Trump announced extraordinary new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China — signing the long-promised economic policy at his Mar-a-Lago club on Saturday. The Trump administration said tariffs are aimed at curbing the flow of drugs and undocumented immigrants into America, but they potentially risk substantial price increases for American consumers across a wide array of common goods.
The new policy represents a reversal of virtually duty-free trade between the three North American nations that’s existed for several years — and an expansion of a frosty trade war between China and the United States that has escalated over the course of the past two administrations.
As Trump has repeatedly promised over the past several months, the tariffs will amount to a significant 25% duty on all imports from Mexico and most goods from Canada and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods imported into the United States.'
Looks to me like you have to go pretty far down the list of imported goods from Canada to US before you find stuff that is not actually an input to another process, presumably one carried out by US manufacturers. Oil, wood, iron, steel, aluminium, distillation products, fertilizers. etc
But - hey - no one gives a fuck about reality anymore eh?
The conspiracy theorists are going to be going into overdrive with this 325 feet versus 200 feet apparent discrepancy with the two aircraft that crashed in DC.
As I said they would, Labour is now loosening not strengthening Britain's borders by removing barriers to illegal migrants becoming citizens and no longer requiring scientific age checks
You might as well put a big neon sign on the White Cliffs of Dover that reads "come on in!"
I have to say I like Trudeau. A handsome man with a good speaking manner, he is good at speechifying. But he has made an economic mistake in imposing retaliatory tariffs. But politically he may have had no choice but to do so. The live feed uses words like "dark days", but this is only the opening salvo: I think it's going to get a lot worse.
I have to say I like Trudeau. A handsome man with a good speaking manner, he is good at speechifying. But he has made an economic mistake in imposing retaliatory tariffs. But politically he may have had no choice but to do so. The live feed uses words like "dark days", but this is only the opening salvo: I think it's going to get a lot worse.
At a guess: If you don't retaliate, the other party's tariffs can end up permanent: you need leverage for when the discussions on ending the tariffs come up.
Defeated parties trying to put themselves back together is popcorn time for those not well disposed.
Labour after the 2019 GE, the Conservatives since July, the Republicans when they lose in 2026 and 2028 - all very entertaining.
How do you come to terms with that both emotionally and politically? As a former Liberal Democrat, 2015 was the cathartic election but the party I joined had already died in the fire of the Coalition.
The first part of coming to terms with defeat is understanding why you lost - the fault lies not in the stars but in ourselves as someone once said. Whether it was the leader, the policies, the campaigning or all of the previous, the result needs to be thought through.
From the understanding comes the momentum to do things differently and the choice, put simply, is either to have the same message and hope the voters come to you or have a different message to get you to where the voters are or more accurately where you think they will be.
One thing that Peter Zeihan has been speaking of for some time is that the ability of the US to extract oil by fracking has minimised oits dependence on other countries. It is strong and unencumbered by obligations to other nations. In Trump II, it has chosen to manifest that strength by coercing other nations thru force of tariffs. The question I am wondering is what will we do when he does it to us?
Afternoon all from the stunning west coast of the South Island
The New Zealand Government is anxiously watching the expansion of protectionism. The USA is the country’s third largest trading partner with NZD 14 billion of exports and a trade surplus of some NZD 2.5 billion.
The overall trade deficit of some NZD 17 billion is made up of a NZD 10 billion deficit in trade with the EU and a NZD 6 billion deficit with Singapore. There is a small deficit with Australia (the second largest partner) and a NZD 3.5 billion surplus with China.
Given the importance of free trade for New Zealand, it’s little surprise the Luxon Government is worried the weak economic recovery here could be derailed by events elsewhere.
One thing that Peter Zeihan has been speaking of for some time is that the ability of the US to extract oil by fracking has minimised oits dependence on other countries. It is strong and unencumbered by obligations to other nations. In Trump II, it has chosen to manifest that strength by coercing other nations thru force of tariffs. The question I am wondering is what will we do when he does it to us?
The thing is, those exports from Alberta and Saskatchewan - they're basically all oil and gas, specifically oil.
Right now, the US imports (heavy) oil from Canada, and exports (light) oil to Europe.
Why?
Because in the old days, the US used to import heavy oil from Mexico (Mayan crude) and Venezuela, and so the refinery systems were setup to process this pretty shitty oil.
Along came massive amounts of new US oil out of the Permian basin. But here's the thing: it's super high quality light oil. Indeed, some of the NGLs are so high quality they require very little processing to turn them into diesel.
The big US refineries make a lot of money by buying shitty crude and turning it into petrol and diesel. And those Canadian barrels sold for 25% less than Permian barrels.
American therefore had a sweet thing going: they basically imported cheap oil, and exported expensive oil.
US refineries are not going to refit to process Permian crude, and if they did they would earn much lower profits anyways (the crack spread is much smaller). Therefore the US will now import heavy oil from other places, and the Canadians will train stuff to the West Coast and ship it out.
The only winners will be the owners of VLCCs, who will now be shipping Canadian crude to complex refineries in the Far East, and heavy crude from Venezuela to the US.
Canada will lose. American drivers will lose. And John Fredrikson will be laughing all the way to the bank. (Indeed, he just bought 24 new VLCCs just before the US election, and the stock of his oil tanker company is up 18% in the last month. Damn it, I saw the signs, and I didn't bother buying it.)
“Our trade policy rests firmly on the foundation of free and open markets. I recognize…the inescapable conclusion that all of history has taught: The freer the flow of world trade, the stronger the tides of human progress and peace among nations.” — Ronald Reagan
To my mind that is pure, unadulterated bollocks.
USA trade policy has afaics always pursued it's own interest before free trade.
The conspiracy theorists are going to be going into overdrive with this 325 feet versus 200 feet apparent discrepancy with the two aircraft that crashed in DC.
Conspiracy theorists go into overdrive over anything; and they already are.
The important thing to me was that the accident appears to have been one that was waiting to happen. If it had not been these two flights, then it would have been another two, in weeks, months or years ahead. Having aircraft fly routes like this, particularly at night, is just asking for trouble.
Notable that across the world, people are (pretending) to bend the knee.
Including Sir Keith “Kid Starver” & his government.
We’ve even seen The Mandelbrot saying nice things about Big Orange.
What is this “Mandelbrot” thing? Did I miss some faux pas he made about German bread? I really can’t work out if it’s a “whoosh” and I don’t get the joke.
Peter Mandelson is a politician of slippery loyalty, chiefly to himself.
The Mandlebrot set is a set of complex numbers z, where z=x +iy. It contains all points z which do not go to infinity when z(n+1)=z(n)^2 + c, where c is a constant. The boundary of the set is fractal and looks like a turtle with acne.
By conflating the two into the phrase "Mandelbrot set", @Malmesbury characterises Mandelson as convoluted and self-referential, which is quite fitting.
Next week, on "Viewcode points out the bleeding obvious": how phrases like "EUSSR" and "Remoaner" encapsulate political concepts in a single word.
Good summary, but there's one aspect underplayed imo.
I started calling him Lord Mandelbrot when he became a Lord back in 2008 or so, on my blog.
The Mandelbrot Set was in fashion at the time, as something that looked exactly the same and infinitely complex, however closely you look at it.
Mandelson was known for his complex political manipulations (another nickname: "The Prince of Darkness"), and the aspect I liked was that - just like the Mandelbrot set - also however closely you looked at them they were just a more detailed, identical looking version of the same thing.
As a character I thought of him as a little like The Master, from Dr Who.
Notable that across the world, people are (pretending) to bend the knee.
Including Sir Keith “Kid Starver” & his government.
We’ve even seen The Mandelbrot saying nice things about Big Orange.
What is this “Mandelbrot” thing? Did I miss some faux pas he made about German bread? I really can’t work out if it’s a “whoosh” and I don’t get the joke.
Peter Mandelson is a politician of slippery loyalty, chiefly to himself.
The Mandlebrot set is a set of complex numbers z, where z=x +iy. It contains all points z which do not go to infinity when z(n+1)=z(n)^2 + c, where c is a constant. The boundary of the set is fractal and looks like a turtle with acne.
By conflating the two into the phrase "Mandelbrot set", @Malmesbury characterises Mandelson as convoluted and self-referential, which is quite fitting.
Next week, on "Viewcode points out the bleeding obvious": how phrases like "EUSSR" and "Remoaner" encapsulate political concepts in a single word.
Good summary, but there's one aspect underplayed imo.
I started calling him Lord Mandelbrot when he became a Lord back in 2008 or so, on my blog.
The Mandelbrot Set was in fashion at the time, as something that looked exactly the same and infinitely complex, however closely you look at it.
Mandelson was known for his complex political manipulations (another nickname: "The Prince of Darkness"), and the aspect I liked was that - just like the Mandelbrot set - also however closely you looked at them they were just a more detailed, identical looking version of the same thing.
As a character I thought of him as a little like The Master, from Dr Who.
Do you think there is a hint of anti-semitism to the nickname?
Notable that across the world, people are (pretending) to bend the knee.
Including Sir Keith “Kid Starver” & his government.
We’ve even seen The Mandelbrot saying nice things about Big Orange.
What is this “Mandelbrot” thing? Did I miss some faux pas he made about German bread? I really can’t work out if it’s a “whoosh” and I don’t get the joke.
Peter Mandelson is a politician of slippery loyalty, chiefly to himself.
The Mandlebrot set is a set of complex numbers z, where z=x +iy. It contains all points z which do not go to infinity when z(n+1)=z(n)^2 + c, where c is a constant. The boundary of the set is fractal and looks like a turtle with acne.
By conflating the two into the phrase "Mandelbrot set", @Malmesbury characterises Mandelson as convoluted and self-referential, which is quite fitting.
Next week, on "Viewcode points out the bleeding obvious": how phrases like "EUSSR" and "Remoaner" encapsulate political concepts in a single word.
Good summary, but there's one aspect underplayed imo.
I started calling him Lord Mandelbrot when he became a Lord back in 2008 or so, on my blog.
The Mandelbrot Set was in fashion at the time, as something that looked exactly the same and infinitely complex, however closely you look at it.
Mandelson was known for his complex political manipulations (another nickname: "The Prince of Darkness"), and the aspect I liked was that - just like the Mandelbrot set - also however closely you looked at them they were just a more detailed, identical looking version of the same thing.
As a character I thought of him as a little like The Master, from Dr Who.
Do you think there is a hint of anti-semitism to the nickname?
I'm surprised that Dr. Foxy didn't mention the potential bad healh effects of globalization. The more we travel around, the more we give opportunities for dangerous, and even deadly, microbes to spread.
(For the record: I think globalization is, net, a benefit to the world, but I think we in the West have been too casual about the costs in recent decades.)
The Spanish flu got everywhere, even in the pre-globalisation age... It just took a little longer
The Spanish flu got everywhere thanks to the First World War, which was a pretty global affair. The clue is in the name.
I'm surprised that Dr. Foxy didn't mention the potential bad healh effects of globalization. The more we travel around, the more we give opportunities for dangerous, and even deadly, microbes to spread.
(For the record: I think globalization is, net, a benefit to the world, but I think we in the West have been too casual about the costs in recent decades.)
The Spanish flu got everywhere, even in the pre-globalisation age... It just took a little longer
The Spanish flu got everywhere thanks to the First World War, which was a pretty global affair. The clue is in the name.
I'm surprised that Dr. Foxy didn't mention the potential bad healh effects of globalization. The more we travel around, the more we give opportunities for dangerous, and even deadly, microbes to spread.
(For the record: I think globalization is, net, a benefit to the world, but I think we in the West have been too casual about the costs in recent decades.)
The Spanish flu got everywhere, even in the pre-globalisation age... It just took a little longer
The Spanish flu got everywhere thanks to the First World War, which was a pretty global affair. The clue is in the name.
The Black Death got everywhere in the 1340s.
Moreover WW1 disrupted rather than enhanced globalisation as trade routes were blocked by submarine warfare.
Finally, Spanish flu affected Spain and South America, who were not belligerents, just as badly.
I don’t think we can blame globalisation for pandemics.
I'm surprised that Dr. Foxy didn't mention the potential bad healh effects of globalization. The more we travel around, the more we give opportunities for dangerous, and even deadly, microbes to spread.
(For the record: I think globalization is, net, a benefit to the world, but I think we in the West have been too casual about the costs in recent decades.)
The Spanish flu got everywhere, even in the pre-globalisation age... It just took a little longer
The Spanish flu got everywhere thanks to the First World War, which was a pretty global affair. The clue is in the name.
Didn’t it start in some US army camp?
Yes, it started in America. Mixed thoroughly in American basic training camps then holding accommodation because almost all American troops sailed from New York, festered in crowded troop ships on the fortnight's voyage to France, then spread to Europe via the trenches, and then the same on the journey home. It is called Spanish flu because Spain was not in the war so the illness was not a military secret.
Notable that across the world, people are (pretending) to bend the knee.
Including Sir Keith “Kid Starver” & his government.
We’ve even seen The Mandelbrot saying nice things about Big Orange.
What is this “Mandelbrot” thing? Did I miss some faux pas he made about German bread? I really can’t work out if it’s a “whoosh” and I don’t get the joke.
Peter Mandelson is a politician of slippery loyalty, chiefly to himself.
The Mandlebrot set is a set of complex numbers z, where z=x +iy. It contains all points z which do not go to infinity when z(n+1)=z(n)^2 + c, where c is a constant. The boundary of the set is fractal and looks like a turtle with acne.
By conflating the two into the phrase "Mandelbrot set", @Malmesbury characterises Mandelson as convoluted and self-referential, which is quite fitting.
Next week, on "Viewcode points out the bleeding obvious": how phrases like "EUSSR" and "Remoaner" encapsulate political concepts in a single word.
Good summary, but there's one aspect underplayed imo.
I started calling him Lord Mandelbrot when he became a Lord back in 2008 or so, on my blog.
The Mandelbrot Set was in fashion at the time, as something that looked exactly the same and infinitely complex, however closely you look at it.
Mandelson was known for his complex political manipulations (another nickname: "The Prince of Darkness"), and the aspect I liked was that - just like the Mandelbrot set - also however closely you looked at them they were just a more detailed, identical looking version of the same thing.
As a character I thought of him as a little like The Master, from Dr Who.
Do you think there is a hint of anti-semitism to the nickname?
I can't see an anti-Semitism link to the nickname "Lord Mandlebrot". I think it's fairly funny and slightly apt. A geeky insult.
As for the nickname "The Prince of Darkness": again, I cannot really see an anti-Semitism link - aside from the fact it's obviously very negative. But we can't get to the state where any negative nickname of a Jewish person is automatically anti-Semitic.
I'm surprised that Dr. Foxy didn't mention the potential bad healh effects of globalization. The more we travel around, the more we give opportunities for dangerous, and even deadly, microbes to spread.
(For the record: I think globalization is, net, a benefit to the world, but I think we in the West have been too casual about the costs in recent decades.)
The Spanish flu got everywhere, even in the pre-globalisation age... It just took a little longer
The Spanish flu got everywhere thanks to the First World War, which was a pretty global affair. The clue is in the name.
Spanish flu reached even the most remote Pacific islands.
I'm surprised that Dr. Foxy didn't mention the potential bad healh effects of globalization. The more we travel around, the more we give opportunities for dangerous, and even deadly, microbes to spread.
(For the record: I think globalization is, net, a benefit to the world, but I think we in the West have been too casual about the costs in recent decades.)
The Spanish flu got everywhere, even in the pre-globalisation age... It just took a little longer
The Spanish flu got everywhere thanks to the First World War, which was a pretty global affair. The clue is in the name.
The Black Death got everywhere in the 1340s.
Moreover WW1 disrupted rather than enhanced globalisation as trade routes were blocked by submarine warfare.
Finally, Spanish flu affected Spain and South America, who were not belligerents, just as badly.
I don’t think we can blame globalisation for pandemics.
You are just playing with the definition of globalisation.
I'm surprised that Dr. Foxy didn't mention the potential bad healh effects of globalization. The more we travel around, the more we give opportunities for dangerous, and even deadly, microbes to spread.
(For the record: I think globalization is, net, a benefit to the world, but I think we in the West have been too casual about the costs in recent decades.)
The Spanish flu got everywhere, even in the pre-globalisation age... It just took a little longer
The Spanish flu got everywhere thanks to the First World War, which was a pretty global affair. The clue is in the name.
Spanish flu reached even the most remote Pacific islands.
Notable that across the world, people are (pretending) to bend the knee.
Including Sir Keith “Kid Starver” & his government.
We’ve even seen The Mandelbrot saying nice things about Big Orange.
What is this “Mandelbrot” thing? Did I miss some faux pas he made about German bread? I really can’t work out if it’s a “whoosh” and I don’t get the joke.
Peter Mandelson is a politician of slippery loyalty, chiefly to himself.
The Mandlebrot set is a set of complex numbers z, where z=x +iy. It contains all points z which do not go to infinity when z(n+1)=z(n)^2 + c, where c is a constant. The boundary of the set is fractal and looks like a turtle with acne.
By conflating the two into the phrase "Mandelbrot set", @Malmesbury characterises Mandelson as convoluted and self-referential, which is quite fitting.
Next week, on "Viewcode points out the bleeding obvious": how phrases like "EUSSR" and "Remoaner" encapsulate political concepts in a single word.
Good summary, but there's one aspect underplayed imo.
I started calling him Lord Mandelbrot when he became a Lord back in 2008 or so, on my blog.
The Mandelbrot Set was in fashion at the time, as something that looked exactly the same and infinitely complex, however closely you look at it.
Mandelson was known for his complex political manipulations (another nickname: "The Prince of Darkness"), and the aspect I liked was that - just like the Mandelbrot set - also however closely you looked at them they were just a more detailed, identical looking version of the same thing.
As a character I thought of him as a little like The Master, from Dr Who.
Do you think there is a hint of anti-semitism to the nickname?
I can't see an anti-Semitism link to the nickname "Lord Mandlebrot". I think it's fairly funny and slightly apt. A geeky insult.
As for the nickname "The Prince of Darkness": again, I cannot really see an anti-Semitism link - aside from the fact it's obviously very negative. But we can't get to the state where any negative nickname of a Jewish person is automatically anti-Semitic.
"The Prince of Darkness" was actually coined in Labour circles much earlier - going back to the 1990s (I'm not sure when in the 1990s).
“Our trade policy rests firmly on the foundation of free and open markets. I recognize…the inescapable conclusion that all of history has taught: The freer the flow of world trade, the stronger the tides of human progress and peace among nations.” — Ronald Reagan
It is interesting that anti-globalisation used to be mostly a leftwing and often anti-american thing. The US forced everywhere to open up their markets for multinationals to make profits, no matter what the harm to local society, environment or economy. Now it's the US and the Republican party that wants to reverse free trade. Trump frames the US as a victim of globalisation, when the US has been a main beneficiary - it's just that the benefits have gone to a small minority in the US.
Globalisation only works when all countries partake in free trade. It doesn't work when countries like China manipulate it and unbalance trade for their own benefit. While I don't agree with tariffs on friendly nations, there is absolutely a case to be made for punitive tariffs against China by the western alliance and for reshoring industry and industrial jobs even if it means a higher price structure for consumers. The idea that lower prices are automatically better for the economy if the downside means fewer jobs as they all move to those countries with lower cost structures is a false one, as Germany is currently learning now that China has a markedly lower cost structure because German energy costs now match the rest of Europe without cheap gas from Russia.
The rise of parties like Reform, AfD, MAGA Republicans, National Rally, FdI, Vox etc... is inextricably linked to globalisation, you may find it easy to dismiss those who have been made jobless and thrust into poverty or welfare by it and suggest they didn't keep up with modern life, I don't. Countries need to look after their own and too many governments have been acting against their own populations interests for too long and now we're seeing the reaction from those people who feel betrayed. In the US the Dems are utterly discredited alongside the traditional Republicans who espoused free trade and impoverished their own citizens to help Chinese industry dominate the global economy. European countries are all heading down the same path.
You clearly did not study international economics and don't keep up with economic literature. The worst thing you can do if a foreign country is stupid enough to subsidise your consumers by paying them to buy its products is to retaliate, since you're forgoing your own opportunity to buy in the cheapest market. You're cutting off your nose to spite your face. Chinese industry has raised living standards worldwide (see e.g. How China's accession to the WTO affects global welfare (2021) or The Global Welfare Impact of China: Trade Integration and Technological Change, 2014) by producing goods people want to buy at a price they can afford. Countries "looking after their own" by imposing protectionist trade tariffs reduce living standards both in the short and in the long run - this is one of the few .
Indeed the issue with the response to China's manufacturing boom is that we have been too statist, seeking to protect industries that should have been closed down, and preventing the market from allocating labour and capital efficiently to sectors where we hold comparative advantage. See e.g. here for a discussion of the impact of labour market rigidity on the response to Chinese competition: https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/trade-nominal-rigidities-understanding-unemployment-and-welfare-effects-china-shock. The way to boost our manufacturing industry is not protecting inefficient companies and shafting consumers with tariffs, it's by raising productivity cutting the cost of inputs like energy, reducing payroll taxes, promoting labour flexibility and enabling factories to be built more quickly by liberalising planning.
Sadly, as ever, it is much easier to scapegoat foreigners than fix our own problems.
The "sectors where we hold comparative advantage" is looking pretty fucking thin on the ground to be honest.
Yes this kind of thinking inspires the question
What if everything is cheaper in China?
Do we just pack up and all move to Shenzhen for the Foxconn assembly lines? Or start substance farming 'cos nothing else is economically viable?
Substance farming is so apposite a typo that I'm worried it is not a typo and I've been wooshed.
As an economic concept, comparative advantage does not mean things aren't cheaper in China. It is first an internal comparison of what things we can do better than other things, and then hoping for China it is the other way round. If we can grow potatoes more cheaply than rice, and China can grow rice more cheaply than potatoes, then we can benefit from specialising in our best crop and trading rice for potatoes even if China (or Britain) can grow both rice and potatoes more cheaply than the other country.
Like many economic concepts, it quickly becomes a complete mess, especially given modern supply chains and manufacturing complexity.
This discussion of Spanish Flu and globalisation covers an important point:
Diseases can now travel around the world very quickly, as we saw in 2020. This means we need governments and NGOs to be reactive and honest when a novel disease (or even a new outbreak of an existing one...) is discovered. Early information is the best way of stopping or limiting pandemics. Get as much information on the genetics of the illness, the way you believe it spreads, what seems to help those infected, what does not seem to help, etc, etc, out in the public domain - even if the information is preliminary.
China did not do this with Covid, and the disease spread far more rapidly than could have been the case.
Notable that across the world, people are (pretending) to bend the knee.
Including Sir Keith “Kid Starver” & his government.
We’ve even seen The Mandelbrot saying nice things about Big Orange.
What is this “Mandelbrot” thing? Did I miss some faux pas he made about German bread? I really can’t work out if it’s a “whoosh” and I don’t get the joke.
Peter Mandelson is a politician of slippery loyalty, chiefly to himself.
The Mandlebrot set is a set of complex numbers z, where z=x +iy. It contains all points z which do not go to infinity when z(n+1)=z(n)^2 + c, where c is a constant. The boundary of the set is fractal and looks like a turtle with acne.
By conflating the two into the phrase "Mandelbrot set", @Malmesbury characterises Mandelson as convoluted and self-referential, which is quite fitting.
Next week, on "Viewcode points out the bleeding obvious": how phrases like "EUSSR" and "Remoaner" encapsulate political concepts in a single word.
Good summary, but there's one aspect underplayed imo.
I started calling him Lord Mandelbrot when he became a Lord back in 2008 or so, on my blog.
The Mandelbrot Set was in fashion at the time, as something that looked exactly the same and infinitely complex, however closely you look at it.
Mandelson was known for his complex political manipulations (another nickname: "The Prince of Darkness"), and the aspect I liked was that - just like the Mandelbrot set - also however closely you looked at them they were just a more detailed, identical looking version of the same thing.
As a character I thought of him as a little like The Master, from Dr Who.
Do you think there is a hint of anti-semitism to the nickname?
I can't see an anti-Semitism link to the nickname "Lord Mandlebrot". I think it's fairly funny and slightly apt. A geeky insult.
As for the nickname "The Prince of Darkness": again, I cannot really see an anti-Semitism link - aside from the fact it's obviously very negative. But we can't get to the state where any negative nickname of a Jewish person is automatically anti-Semitic.
"The Prince of Darkness" was actually coined in Labour circles much earlier - going back to the 1990s (I'm not sure when in the 1990s).
I'm unsure why someone who had to resign twice for personal dodginess is still seen as a viable political figure.
(One time for getting an interest-free mortgage loan from someone his department was investigating; a second time for using his position to influence a passport application. Makes a birthday cake seem rather trivial...)
Notable that across the world, people are (pretending) to bend the knee.
Including Sir Keith “Kid Starver” & his government.
We’ve even seen The Mandelbrot saying nice things about Big Orange.
What is this “Mandelbrot” thing? Did I miss some faux pas he made about German bread? I really can’t work out if it’s a “whoosh” and I don’t get the joke.
Peter Mandelson is a politician of slippery loyalty, chiefly to himself.
The Mandlebrot set is a set of complex numbers z, where z=x +iy. It contains all points z which do not go to infinity when z(n+1)=z(n)^2 + c, where c is a constant. The boundary of the set is fractal and looks like a turtle with acne.
By conflating the two into the phrase "Mandelbrot set", @Malmesbury characterises Mandelson as convoluted and self-referential, which is quite fitting.
Next week, on "Viewcode points out the bleeding obvious": how phrases like "EUSSR" and "Remoaner" encapsulate political concepts in a single word.
Good summary, but there's one aspect underplayed imo.
I started calling him Lord Mandelbrot when he became a Lord back in 2008 or so, on my blog.
The Mandelbrot Set was in fashion at the time, as something that looked exactly the same and infinitely complex, however closely you look at it.
Mandelson was known for his complex political manipulations (another nickname: "The Prince of Darkness"), and the aspect I liked was that - just like the Mandelbrot set - also however closely you looked at them they were just a more detailed, identical looking version of the same thing.
As a character I thought of him as a little like The Master, from Dr Who.
Do you think there is a hint of anti-semitism to the nickname?
I can't see an anti-Semitism link to the nickname "Lord Mandlebrot". I think it's fairly funny and slightly apt. A geeky insult.
As for the nickname "The Prince of Darkness": again, I cannot really see an anti-Semitism link - aside from the fact it's obviously very negative. But we can't get to the state where any negative nickname of a Jewish person is automatically anti-Semitic.
"The Prince of Darkness" was actually coined in Labour circles much earlier - going back to the 1990s (I'm not sure when in the 1990s).
I'm unsure why someone who had to resign twice for personal dodginess is still seen as a viable political figure.
(One time for getting an interest-free mortgage loan from someone his department was investigating; a second time for using his position to influence a passport application. Makes a birthday cake seem rather trivial...)
Repeatedly disgraced yet keeps coming back? Sounds like a perfect match for the Trumpster fire.
Notable that across the world, people are (pretending) to bend the knee.
Including Sir Keith “Kid Starver” & his government.
We’ve even seen The Mandelbrot saying nice things about Big Orange.
What is this “Mandelbrot” thing? Did I miss some faux pas he made about German bread? I really can’t work out if it’s a “whoosh” and I don’t get the joke.
Peter Mandelson is a politician of slippery loyalty, chiefly to himself.
The Mandlebrot set is a set of complex numbers z, where z=x +iy. It contains all points z which do not go to infinity when z(n+1)=z(n)^2 + c, where c is a constant. The boundary of the set is fractal and looks like a turtle with acne.
By conflating the two into the phrase "Mandelbrot set", @Malmesbury characterises Mandelson as convoluted and self-referential, which is quite fitting.
Next week, on "Viewcode points out the bleeding obvious": how phrases like "EUSSR" and "Remoaner" encapsulate political concepts in a single word.
Good summary, but there's one aspect underplayed imo.
I started calling him Lord Mandelbrot when he became a Lord back in 2008 or so, on my blog.
The Mandelbrot Set was in fashion at the time, as something that looked exactly the same and infinitely complex, however closely you look at it.
Mandelson was known for his complex political manipulations (another nickname: "The Prince of Darkness"), and the aspect I liked was that - just like the Mandelbrot set - also however closely you looked at them they were just a more detailed, identical looking version of the same thing.
As a character I thought of him as a little like The Master, from Dr Who.
Do you think there is a hint of anti-semitism to the nickname?
I can't see an anti-Semitism link to the nickname "Lord Mandlebrot". I think it's fairly funny and slightly apt. A geeky insult.
As for the nickname "The Prince of Darkness": again, I cannot really see an anti-Semitism link - aside from the fact it's obviously very negative. But we can't get to the state where any negative nickname of a Jewish person is automatically anti-Semitic.
"The Prince of Darkness" was actually coined in Labour circles much earlier - going back to the 1990s (I'm not sure when in the 1990s).
I'm unsure why someone who had to resign twice for personal dodginess is still seen as a viable political figure.
(One time for getting an interest-free mortgage loan from someone his department was investigating; a second time for using his position to influence a passport application. Makes a birthday cake seem rather trivial...)
You now know how he earned his nickname .
That's why I think of The Master; Lord Mandelbrot regenerates.
I'm not sure if even the new Ambassador can insert himself into the voices in Mr Trump's head, however.
I'm just thinking how forward-thinking the DLR was for any British government. It was an example of building the transport infrastructure *before* the development it was designed to serve really took off.
Notable that across the world, people are (pretending) to bend the knee.
Including Sir Keith “Kid Starver” & his government.
We’ve even seen The Mandelbrot saying nice things about Big Orange.
What is this “Mandelbrot” thing? Did I miss some faux pas he made about German bread? I really can’t work out if it’s a “whoosh” and I don’t get the joke.
Peter Mandelson is a politician of slippery loyalty, chiefly to himself.
The Mandlebrot set is a set of complex numbers z, where z=x +iy. It contains all points z which do not go to infinity when z(n+1)=z(n)^2 + c, where c is a constant. The boundary of the set is fractal and looks like a turtle with acne.
By conflating the two into the phrase "Mandelbrot set", @Malmesbury characterises Mandelson as convoluted and self-referential, which is quite fitting.
Next week, on "Viewcode points out the bleeding obvious": how phrases like "EUSSR" and "Remoaner" encapsulate political concepts in a single word.
Good summary, but there's one aspect underplayed imo.
I started calling him Lord Mandelbrot when he became a Lord back in 2008 or so, on my blog.
The Mandelbrot Set was in fashion at the time, as something that looked exactly the same and infinitely complex, however closely you look at it.
Mandelson was known for his complex political manipulations (another nickname: "The Prince of Darkness"), and the aspect I liked was that - just like the Mandelbrot set - also however closely you looked at them they were just a more detailed, identical looking version of the same thing.
As a character I thought of him as a little like The Master, from Dr Who.
Do you think there is a hint of anti-semitism to the nickname?
I can't see an anti-Semitism link to the nickname "Lord Mandlebrot". I think it's fairly funny and slightly apt. A geeky insult.
As for the nickname "The Prince of Darkness": again, I cannot really see an anti-Semitism link - aside from the fact it's obviously very negative. But we can't get to the state where any negative nickname of a Jewish person is automatically anti-Semitic.
"The Prince of Darkness" was actually coined in Labour circles much earlier - going back to the 1990s (I'm not sure when in the 1990s).
I'm unsure why someone who had to resign twice for personal dodginess is still seen as a viable political figure.
(One time for getting an interest-free mortgage loan from someone his department was investigating; a second time for using his position to influence a passport application. Makes a birthday cake seem rather trivial...)
You now know how he earned his nickname .
That's why I think of The Master; Lord Mandelbrot regenerates.
Good morning, everyone.
Ha, reminds me a bit of something I wrote about Nico Hulkenberg being like Dracula: he always comes back.
Edited: and for anyone who missed it yesterday, here's ep7, discussing the rookies and MBS being a nincompoop:
This discussion of Spanish Flu and globalisation covers an important point:
Diseases can now travel around the world very quickly, as we saw in 2020. This means we need governments and NGOs to be reactive and honest when a novel disease (or even a new outbreak of an existing one...) is discovered. Early information is the best way of stopping or limiting pandemics. Get as much information on the genetics of the illness, the way you believe it spreads, what seems to help those infected, what does not seem to help, etc, etc, out in the public domain - even if the information is preliminary.
China did not do this with Covid, and the disease spread far more rapidly than could have been the case.
To be contrarian, it was going to spread widely, so let it spread rapidly - and let it burn itself out faster.
Yes, the delay helped with time to create a Covid vaccine. But is that even going to be an option next time, with anti-vaxxers in the US administration?
Notable that across the world, people are (pretending) to bend the knee.
Including Sir Keith “Kid Starver” & his government.
We’ve even seen The Mandelbrot saying nice things about Big Orange.
What is this “Mandelbrot” thing? Did I miss some faux pas he made about German bread? I really can’t work out if it’s a “whoosh” and I don’t get the joke.
Peter Mandelson is a politician of slippery loyalty, chiefly to himself.
The Mandlebrot set is a set of complex numbers z, where z=x +iy. It contains all points z which do not go to infinity when z(n+1)=z(n)^2 + c, where c is a constant. The boundary of the set is fractal and looks like a turtle with acne.
By conflating the two into the phrase "Mandelbrot set", @Malmesbury characterises Mandelson as convoluted and self-referential, which is quite fitting.
Next week, on "Viewcode points out the bleeding obvious": how phrases like "EUSSR" and "Remoaner" encapsulate political concepts in a single word.
Good summary, but there's one aspect underplayed imo.
I started calling him Lord Mandelbrot when he became a Lord back in 2008 or so, on my blog.
The Mandelbrot Set was in fashion at the time, as something that looked exactly the same and infinitely complex, however closely you look at it.
Mandelson was known for his complex political manipulations (another nickname: "The Prince of Darkness"), and the aspect I liked was that - just like the Mandelbrot set - also however closely you looked at them they were just a more detailed, identical looking version of the same thing.
As a character I thought of him as a little like The Master, from Dr Who.
Do you think there is a hint of anti-semitism to the nickname?
I can't see an anti-Semitism link to the nickname "Lord Mandlebrot". I think it's fairly funny and slightly apt. A geeky insult.
As for the nickname "The Prince of Darkness": again, I cannot really see an anti-Semitism link - aside from the fact it's obviously very negative. But we can't get to the state where any negative nickname of a Jewish person is automatically anti-Semitic.
"The Prince of Darkness" was actually coined in Labour circles much earlier - going back to the 1990s (I'm not sure when in the 1990s).
I'm unsure why someone who had to resign twice for personal dodginess is still seen as a viable political figure.
(One time for getting an interest-free mortgage loan from someone his department was investigating; a second time for using his position to influence a passport application. Makes a birthday cake seem rather trivial...)
Johnson didn't resign over cake, he resigned over lies to Parliament about Pincher.
Notable that across the world, people are (pretending) to bend the knee.
Including Sir Keith “Kid Starver” & his government.
We’ve even seen The Mandelbrot saying nice things about Big Orange.
What is this “Mandelbrot” thing? Did I miss some faux pas he made about German bread? I really can’t work out if it’s a “whoosh” and I don’t get the joke.
Peter Mandelson is a politician of slippery loyalty, chiefly to himself.
The Mandlebrot set is a set of complex numbers z, where z=x +iy. It contains all points z which do not go to infinity when z(n+1)=z(n)^2 + c, where c is a constant. The boundary of the set is fractal and looks like a turtle with acne.
By conflating the two into the phrase "Mandelbrot set", @Malmesbury characterises Mandelson as convoluted and self-referential, which is quite fitting.
Next week, on "Viewcode points out the bleeding obvious": how phrases like "EUSSR" and "Remoaner" encapsulate political concepts in a single word.
Good summary, but there's one aspect underplayed imo.
I started calling him Lord Mandelbrot when he became a Lord back in 2008 or so, on my blog.
The Mandelbrot Set was in fashion at the time, as something that looked exactly the same and infinitely complex, however closely you look at it.
Mandelson was known for his complex political manipulations (another nickname: "The Prince of Darkness"), and the aspect I liked was that - just like the Mandelbrot set - also however closely you looked at them they were just a more detailed, identical looking version of the same thing.
As a character I thought of him as a little like The Master, from Dr Who.
Do you think there is a hint of anti-semitism to the nickname?
I can't see an anti-Semitism link to the nickname "Lord Mandlebrot". I think it's fairly funny and slightly apt. A geeky insult.
As for the nickname "The Prince of Darkness": again, I cannot really see an anti-Semitism link - aside from the fact it's obviously very negative. But we can't get to the state where any negative nickname of a Jewish person is automatically anti-Semitic.
"The Prince of Darkness" was actually coined in Labour circles much earlier - going back to the 1990s (I'm not sure when in the 1990s).
I'm unsure why someone who had to resign twice for personal dodginess is still seen as a viable political figure.
(One time for getting an interest-free mortgage loan from someone his department was investigating; a second time for using his position to influence a passport application. Makes a birthday cake seem rather trivial...)
Johnson didn't resign over cake, he resigned over lies to Parliament about Pincher.
My point still stands - and Robinson accused Mandelson of lying to parliament over the loan.
This discussion of Spanish Flu and globalisation covers an important point:
Diseases can now travel around the world very quickly, as we saw in 2020. This means we need governments and NGOs to be reactive and honest when a novel disease (or even a new outbreak of an existing one...) is discovered. Early information is the best way of stopping or limiting pandemics. Get as much information on the genetics of the illness, the way you believe it spreads, what seems to help those infected, what does not seem to help, etc, etc, out in the public domain - even if the information is preliminary.
China did not do this with Covid, and the disease spread far more rapidly than could have been the case.
To be contrarian, it was going to spread widely, so let it spread rapidly - and let it burn itself out faster.
Yes, the delay helped with time to create a Covid vaccine. But is that even going to be an option next time, with anti-vaxxers in the US administration?
Every day the spread is delayed, is a day we get more time to develop and distribute vaccines, and learn more about how the little bugger spreads.
Agree with your last sentence - but developing vaccines does not have to be done in conjunction with a backwards US administration.
New Yorkers are celebrating on TwiX that Trump has kicked the illegal migrants out of NYC and suddenly Times Square and Broadway and midtown are free of homeless camps
Notable that across the world, people are (pretending) to bend the knee.
Including Sir Keith “Kid Starver” & his government.
We’ve even seen The Mandelbrot saying nice things about Big Orange.
What is this “Mandelbrot” thing? Did I miss some faux pas he made about German bread? I really can’t work out if it’s a “whoosh” and I don’t get the joke.
Peter Mandelson is a politician of slippery loyalty, chiefly to himself.
The Mandlebrot set is a set of complex numbers z, where z=x +iy. It contains all points z which do not go to infinity when z(n+1)=z(n)^2 + c, where c is a constant. The boundary of the set is fractal and looks like a turtle with acne.
By conflating the two into the phrase "Mandelbrot set", @Malmesbury characterises Mandelson as convoluted and self-referential, which is quite fitting.
Next week, on "Viewcode points out the bleeding obvious": how phrases like "EUSSR" and "Remoaner" encapsulate political concepts in a single word.
Good summary, but there's one aspect underplayed imo.
I started calling him Lord Mandelbrot when he became a Lord back in 2008 or so, on my blog.
The Mandelbrot Set was in fashion at the time, as something that looked exactly the same and infinitely complex, however closely you look at it.
Mandelson was known for his complex political manipulations (another nickname: "The Prince of Darkness"), and the aspect I liked was that - just like the Mandelbrot set - also however closely you looked at them they were just a more detailed, identical looking version of the same thing.
As a character I thought of him as a little like The Master, from Dr Who.
Do you think there is a hint of anti-semitism to the nickname?
I can't see an anti-Semitism link to the nickname "Lord Mandlebrot". I think it's fairly funny and slightly apt. A geeky insult.
As for the nickname "The Prince of Darkness": again, I cannot really see an anti-Semitism link - aside from the fact it's obviously very negative. But we can't get to the state where any negative nickname of a Jewish person is automatically anti-Semitic.
"The Prince of Darkness" was actually coined in Labour circles much earlier - going back to the 1990s (I'm not sure when in the 1990s).
I'm unsure why someone who had to resign twice for personal dodginess is still seen as a viable political figure.
(One time for getting an interest-free mortgage loan from someone his department was investigating; a second time for using his position to influence a passport application. Makes a birthday cake seem rather trivial...)
Johnson didn't resign over cake, he resigned over lies to Parliament about Pincher.
My point still stands - and Robinson accused Mandelson of lying to parliament over the loan.
Why are you so keen to defend Mandelson?
I am not defending Mandleson. I think him a very poor choice as Ambassador.
Just pointing out that Johnson resigned over something more significant than a birthday cake, and that a nickname has a whiff of anti-semitic tropes about it.
This was introduced last year in response to the Shipman case and illustrates three things:-
First, that hard cases make bad law;
Second, that systems need spare capacity rather than 100 per cent efficiency;
Third, that if this woman (and presumably her contacts) had not heard of Dr Harold Shipman and his aftermath, why should we be surprised about the Waspi women not following pension news? Most people just get on with their lives.
My brother-in-law has been in a similar situation. In his case, an interim death certificate made a funeral possible after 4 weeks, but he cannot proceed with administrating the estate because the solicitors will not release the Will until a full certificate has been issued.
New Yorkers are celebrating on TwiX that Trump has kicked the illegal migrants out of NYC and suddenly Times Square and Broadway and midtown are free of homeless camps
My brother-in-law has been in a similar situation. In his case, an interim death certificate made a funeral possible after 4 weeks, but he cannot proceed with administrating the estate because the solicitors will not release the Will until a full certificate has been issued.
Could be worse. The father of one friend of mine left his will in a bank deposit - which couldn't be opened until the Will was produced...
New Yorkers are celebrating on TwiX that Trump has kicked the illegal migrants out of NYC and suddenly Times Square and Broadway and midtown are free of homeless camps
This subject came up when a relative of mine recently died. Certification in that case only took about three days, thank God, but what I suspect we have here is yet another instance of a health postcode lottery. The coroners have been loaded up with a lot of extra work, it's a reasonable guess that they haven't been given additional resources to match, and some of them are coping much better than others.
I think this is largely a safeguarding measure against a repetition of the Shipman case - blanket monitoring ought to reveal if one GP is signing off an unusually large number of deaths - but it's obviously been done at the cost of causing considerable distress to a lot of families. Just one more example of how almost nothing works properly in Britain.
Yvette Cooper says the UK will make it illegal to own AI tools to make images of child sexual abuse.
"AI Tools"? Does that mean '/usr/bin/python'? Or very specifically '/usr/local/bin/make-kiddy-fiddler-images.app'?
Or... god forfend... does it mean they have no idea what they're talking about? Which I can't possibly imagine is the case.
This is quite interesting, and smacks a little of some of the legislation of the Blair era - potentially written to be very broad, and designed to catch things that definitely need to be caught but could cause a lot of false-positives-with-dire-consequences if not handled with supreme care.
If Constable Savage or Prosecutor Pratfall gets near it, we will risk miscarriages of justice.
eg If "tools designed to make images of CSA" gets reinterpreted or stretched to be "tools which could be used to make images of CSA", then we are up shit creek.
We saw consequences of this around Operation Ore, where the police put more weight on their evidence in some cases than it could stand, and because it was sometimes "accept a caution or you'll be in the Courts in the public eye" numbers of people took the caution under questionable circumstances.
This also happened with the "Extreme Pornography Act" and "pseudo photographs", where a man was denied access to his children for a year because the police failed to investigate a joke video involving a tiger costume competently (they did not turn the sound on and missed that it was a joke). The tiger was talking.
And a long quote from a journo report to illustrate:
Andrew Robert Holland of Coedpoeth near Wrexham appeared at Mold Crown Court on New Year's Eve to answer two charges of possessing extreme porn. Both charges related to video clips sent to him by friends, allegedly as jokes.
The first charge involved a video clip of a woman having sex with a tiger. The tiger, according to Mr Holland, was an animated image, rather than a real tiger.
He told El Reg that the fictional nature of the action was obvious from the fact that, at the end of the scene, the Tiger turns to camera and said: "That beats doing Frosties ads for a living."
According to court reports, neither police nor prosecution listened to the soundtrack before the case reached court and the voiceover became an issue.
At that point, prosecutor Elizabeth Bell withdrew the charge, saying that the prosecution had decided to offer no evidence. Questioned by the Judge, John Rogers QC, she claimed that when the case was previously reviewed the film had no soundtrack.
El Reg spoke to the Crown Prosecution Service just 24 hours before the case went to court. At that point, they expressed themselves entirely satisfied that there was a case to answer. https://www.theregister.com/2010/01/06/tiger_police/
New Yorkers are celebrating on TwiX that Trump has kicked the illegal migrants out of NYC and suddenly Times Square and Broadway and midtown are free of homeless camps
If Trump successfully cleans up urban America - big IF - then he might be forgiven his insane tariffs
Neither will happen.
We have no idea. Uncharted waters
Look at it this way:
Trump and his billionaire friends want to remove billions out of the American economy and steal give tax cuts to themselves. That money is not spent on nothing: a vast amount of it is spent on American salaries.
This means an awful lot of people will end up with less, or no, income. And given the US's safety net is a thousands-foot drop into a tank of piranhas, an awful lot of people will end up homeless. Perhaps not all the people who lose their jobs directly due to the cuts, but also those displaced or who relied on income from those people.
Worse, the tariffs may weaken the whole economy, making people even poorer.
If you want to 'clean up' the streets: spend more money, not less.
I'm surprised that Dr. Foxy didn't mention the potential bad healh effects of globalization. The more we travel around, the more we give opportunities for dangerous, and even deadly, microbes to spread.
(For the record: I think globalization is, net, a benefit to the world, but I think we in the West have been too casual about the costs in recent decades.)
The Spanish flu got everywhere, even in the pre-globalisation age... It just took a little longer
The Spanish flu got everywhere thanks to the First World War, which was a pretty global affair. The clue is in the name.
The 1889-90 pandemic got everywhere without a world war.
Comments
Go Yvette!
Edit: Not that that means the legislation will necessarily be effective or devoid of adverse consequences. Life isn't simple.
- Peter Mandelson is a politician of slippery loyalty, chiefly to himself.
- The Mandlebrot set is a set of complex numbers z, where z=x +iy. It contains all points z which do not go to infinity when z(n+1)=z(n)^2 + c, where c is a constant. The boundary of the set is fractal and looks like a turtle with acne.
By conflating the two into the phrase "Mandelbrot set", @Malmesbury characterises Mandelson as convoluted and self-referential, which is quite fitting.Next week, on "Viewcode points out the bleeding obvious": how phrases like "EUSSR" and "Remoaner" encapsulate political concepts in a single word.
"outlaw specific tools and manuals that enable the use of AI to make images of child sexual abuse"
You really, honestly, don't see how broad that is? If it was truly specific then they'd name and shame. Or at least give a definition.
"outlaw specific tools and manuals that enable the use of pencils to make...."
I'm all for locking away kiddy-fiddlers. But just shoving 'AI' into an overly broad law is not great.
(Pedant alert: I would say globalization was pretty well advanced by 1918.)
We've been here before. It's the over-broad, un-specific nature - the ill-defined, headline-grabbing nature of it that concerns me.
Indeed the issue with the response to China's manufacturing boom is that we have been too statist, seeking to protect industries that should have been closed down, and preventing the market from allocating labour and capital efficiently to sectors where we hold comparative advantage. See e.g. here for a discussion of the impact of labour market rigidity on the response to Chinese competition:
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/trade-nominal-rigidities-understanding-unemployment-and-welfare-effects-china-shock. The way to boost our manufacturing industry is not protecting inefficient companies and shafting consumers with tariffs, it's by raising productivity cutting the cost of inputs like energy, reducing payroll taxes, promoting labour flexibility and enabling factories to be built more quickly by liberalising planning.
Sadly, as ever, it is much easier to scapegoat foreigners than fix our own problems.
Ancient Persepolis reliefs recreated and animated by AI
I'm sure it's well intentioned, like the recently proposed tightening of online knife sales, but will it be effective?
I'm skeptical that controlling AI/ML is ever likely to work.
'President Donald Trump announced extraordinary new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China — signing the long-promised economic policy at his Mar-a-Lago club on Saturday. The Trump administration said tariffs are aimed at curbing the flow of drugs and undocumented immigrants into America, but they potentially risk substantial price increases for American consumers across a wide array of common goods.
The new policy represents a reversal of virtually duty-free trade between the three North American nations that’s existed for several years — and an expansion of a frosty trade war between China and the United States that has escalated over the course of the past two administrations.
As Trump has repeatedly promised over the past several months, the tariffs will amount to a significant 25% duty on all imports from Mexico and most goods from Canada and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods imported into the United States.'
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/01/politics/mexico-canada-china-tariffs-trump/index.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Plhtk_XJqhM From 1:35 on.
Even if it is19 miles from the true location…
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
I am cautiously optimistic that we will reach the $4B/day FY2026 reduction this weekend
If you use subsidies etc to take over an industry, the resulting control can create enormous barriers to entry.
Trying to do electronics production in the UK, for example, now hits the problem that the competent supply chains are not present.
What if everything is cheaper in China?
Do we just pack up and all move to Shenzhen for the Foxconn assembly lines? Or start substance farming 'cos nothing else is economically viable?
Now being burnt to the ground.
Yet Phillipson has nothing to say or to offer and no one seems to give a fuck.
But - hey - no one gives a fuck about reality anymore eh?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kcnj9QGi_8
@natashaloder
·
2h
Good luck with making food cheaper and healthier with a tax on Mexican imports
https://x.com/natashaloder/status/1885813708682580281
The key question for economists everywhere - wtf does this mean for the price of eggs?
https://youtu.be/r3BO6GP9NMY?si=APOP0hEzCtoAMzV4
"Matt Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
As I said they would, Labour is now loosening not strengthening Britain's borders by removing barriers to illegal migrants becoming citizens and no longer requiring scientific age checks
You might as well put a big neon sign on the White Cliffs of Dover that reads "come on in!"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Liberal_Party_of_Canada_leadership_election
"Labour eases checks on illegal migrants
Repeal of Tory rules branded ‘total capitulation’ as legislation on citizenship and age testing is softened"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/02/01/labour-waters-down-illegal-migrant-age-checks/
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92rutFiIWAM - Global News
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGu7eUca7SI - CBC News
This matches tariffs imposed by the Mexicans on US goods earlier today.
Labour after the 2019 GE, the Conservatives since July, the Republicans when they lose in 2026 and 2028 - all very entertaining.
How do you come to terms with that both emotionally and politically? As a former Liberal Democrat, 2015 was the cathartic election but the party I joined had already died in the fire of the Coalition.
The first part of coming to terms with defeat is understanding why you lost - the fault lies not in the stars but in ourselves as someone once said. Whether it was the leader, the policies, the campaigning or all of the previous, the result needs to be thought through.
From the understanding comes the momentum to do things differently and the choice, put simply, is either to have the same message and hope the voters come to you or have a different message to get you to where the voters are or more accurately where you think they will be.
The New Zealand Government is anxiously watching the expansion of protectionism. The USA is the country’s third largest trading partner with NZD 14 billion of exports and a trade surplus of some NZD 2.5 billion.
The overall trade deficit of some NZD 17 billion is made up of a NZD 10 billion deficit in trade with the EU and a NZD 6 billion deficit with Singapore. There is a small deficit with Australia (the second largest partner) and a NZD 3.5 billion surplus with China.
Given the importance of free trade for New Zealand, it’s little surprise the Luxon Government is worried the weak economic recovery here could be derailed by events elsewhere.
Right now, the US imports (heavy) oil from Canada, and exports (light) oil to Europe.
Why?
Because in the old days, the US used to import heavy oil from Mexico (Mayan crude) and Venezuela, and so the refinery systems were setup to process this pretty shitty oil.
Along came massive amounts of new US oil out of the Permian basin. But here's the thing: it's super high quality light oil. Indeed, some of the NGLs are so high quality they require very little processing to turn them into diesel.
The big US refineries make a lot of money by buying shitty crude and turning it into petrol and diesel. And those Canadian barrels sold for 25% less than Permian barrels.
American therefore had a sweet thing going: they basically imported cheap oil, and exported expensive oil.
US refineries are not going to refit to process Permian crude, and if they did they would earn much lower profits anyways (the crack spread is much smaller). Therefore the US will now import heavy oil from other places, and the Canadians will train stuff to the West Coast and ship it out.
The only winners will be the owners of VLCCs, who will now be shipping Canadian crude to complex refineries in the Far East, and heavy crude from Venezuela to the US.
Canada will lose. American drivers will lose. And John Fredrikson will be laughing all the way to the bank. (Indeed, he just bought 24 new VLCCs just before the US election, and the stock of his oil tanker company is up 18% in the last month. Damn it, I saw the signs, and I didn't bother buying it.)
USA trade policy has afaics always pursued it's own interest before free trade.
Another thread Goodwinned.
The important thing to me was that the accident appears to have been one that was waiting to happen. If it had not been these two flights, then it would have been another two, in weeks, months or years ahead. Having aircraft fly routes like this, particularly at night, is just asking for trouble.
I started calling him Lord Mandelbrot when he became a Lord back in 2008 or so, on my blog.
The Mandelbrot Set was in fashion at the time, as something that looked exactly the same and infinitely complex, however closely you look at it.
Mandelson was known for his complex political manipulations (another nickname: "The Prince of Darkness"), and the aspect I liked was that - just like the Mandelbrot set - also however closely you looked at them they were just a more detailed, identical looking version of the same thing.
As a character I thought of him as a little like The Master, from Dr Who.
Moreover WW1 disrupted rather than enhanced globalisation as trade routes were blocked by submarine warfare.
Finally, Spanish flu affected Spain and South America, who were not belligerents, just as badly.
I don’t think we can blame globalisation for pandemics.
As for the nickname "The Prince of Darkness": again, I cannot really see an anti-Semitism link - aside from the fact it's obviously very negative. But we can't get to the state where any negative nickname of a Jewish person is automatically anti-Semitic.
As an economic concept, comparative advantage does not mean things aren't cheaper in China. It is first an internal comparison of what things we can do better than other things, and then hoping for China it is the other way round. If we can grow potatoes more cheaply than rice, and China can grow rice more cheaply than potatoes, then we can benefit from specialising in our best crop and trading rice for potatoes even if China (or Britain) can grow both rice and potatoes more cheaply than the other country.
Like many economic concepts, it quickly becomes a complete mess, especially given modern supply chains and manufacturing complexity.
Diseases can now travel around the world very quickly, as we saw in 2020. This means we need governments and NGOs to be reactive and honest when a novel disease (or even a new outbreak of an existing one...) is discovered. Early information is the best way of stopping or limiting pandemics. Get as much information on the genetics of the illness, the way you believe it spreads, what seems to help those infected, what does not seem to help, etc, etc, out in the public domain - even if the information is preliminary.
China did not do this with Covid, and the disease spread far more rapidly than could have been the case.
(One time for getting an interest-free mortgage loan from someone his department was investigating; a second time for using his position to influence a passport application. Makes a birthday cake seem rather trivial...)
That's why I think of The Master; Lord Mandelbrot regenerates.
I'm not sure if even the new Ambassador can insert himself into the voices in Mr Trump's head, however.
Ha, reminds me a bit of something I wrote about Nico Hulkenberg being like Dracula: he always comes back.
Edited: and for anyone who missed it yesterday, here's ep7, discussing the rookies and MBS being a nincompoop:
Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-ranking-the-rookies/
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7GQpzSWO363h6OiPSW6k5s
Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/566e3ec1-0943-462a-8896-ac87ea932c81/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-ranking-the-rookies
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f1-2025-ranking-the-rookies/id1786574257?i=1000687784862
Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/02/f1-2025-ranking-rookies-undercutters.html
Yes, the delay helped with time to create a Covid vaccine. But is that even going to be an option next time, with anti-vaxxers in the US administration?
Why are you so keen to defend Mandelson?
Agree with your last sentence - but developing vaccines does not have to be done in conjunction with a backwards US administration.
https://x.com/sues86453/status/1885862657376370689?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
https://x.com/bud_cann/status/1885146502038720969?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyn8lv4g00o
Just pointing out that Johnson resigned over something more significant than a birthday cake, and that a nickname has a whiff of anti-semitic tropes about it.
First, that hard cases make bad law;
Second, that systems need spare capacity rather than 100 per cent efficiency;
Third, that if this woman (and presumably her contacts) had not heard of Dr Harold Shipman and his aftermath, why should we be surprised about the Waspi women not following pension news? Most people just get on with their lives.
I wonder if that is anything to do with
1 - Those being a couple of MAGA accounts.
2 - The temperature in Times Square currently being -7C.
...so the Canadians take it upon themselves”
https://x.com/tablesalt13/status/1885700759762674079?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
There are also many videos of migrants in NYC furiously protesting the deportations. So clearly some impact is occurring
I think this is largely a safeguarding measure against a repetition of the Shipman case - blanket monitoring ought to reveal if one GP is signing off an unusually large number of deaths - but it's obviously been done at the cost of causing considerable distress to a lot of families. Just one more example of how almost nothing works properly in Britain.
If Constable Savage or Prosecutor Pratfall gets near it, we will risk miscarriages of justice.
eg If "tools designed to make images of CSA" gets reinterpreted or stretched to be "tools which could be used to make images of CSA", then we are up shit creek.
We saw consequences of this around Operation Ore, where the police put more weight on their evidence in some cases than it could stand, and because it was sometimes "accept a caution or you'll be in the Courts in the public eye" numbers of people took the caution under questionable circumstances.
This also happened with the "Extreme Pornography Act" and "pseudo photographs", where a man was denied access to his children for a year because the police failed to investigate a joke video involving a tiger costume competently (they did not turn the sound on and missed that it was a joke). The tiger was talking.
Here's his personal account: https://www.vice.com/en/article/andrew-holland-tiger-porn-883/
And a long quote from a journo report to illustrate:
Andrew Robert Holland of Coedpoeth near Wrexham appeared at Mold Crown Court on New Year's Eve to answer two charges of possessing extreme porn. Both charges related to video clips sent to him by friends, allegedly as jokes.
The first charge involved a video clip of a woman having sex with a tiger. The tiger, according to Mr Holland, was an animated image, rather than a real tiger.
He told El Reg that the fictional nature of the action was obvious from the fact that, at the end of the scene, the Tiger turns to camera and said: "That beats doing Frosties ads for a living."
According to court reports, neither police nor prosecution listened to the soundtrack before the case reached court and the voiceover became an issue.
At that point, prosecutor Elizabeth Bell withdrew the charge, saying that the prosecution had decided to offer no evidence. Questioned by the Judge, John Rogers QC, she claimed that when the case was previously reviewed the film had no soundtrack.
El Reg spoke to the Crown Prosecution Service just 24 hours before the case went to court. At that point, they expressed themselves entirely satisfied that there was a case to answer.
https://www.theregister.com/2010/01/06/tiger_police/
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/musk-aides-lock-government-workers-out-computer-systems-us-agency-sources-say-2025-01-31/
People with no government posts, with unknown security getting unlimited access to US government databases. What could possibly go wrong?
Trump and his billionaire friends want to remove billions out of the American economy and steal give tax cuts to themselves. That money is not spent on nothing: a vast amount of it is spent on American salaries.
This means an awful lot of people will end up with less, or no, income. And given the US's safety net is a thousands-foot drop into a tank of piranhas, an awful lot of people will end up homeless. Perhaps not all the people who lose their jobs directly due to the cuts, but also those displaced or who relied on income from those people.
Worse, the tariffs may weaken the whole economy, making people even poorer.
If you want to 'clean up' the streets: spend more money, not less.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889–1890_pandemic