Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
If that is the plan, the execution leaves a fair bit to be desired. Kemi is a fighter, and she is fighting. It's just her choice of battlefields (RefUK membership figures, GB News presenter choices) are dumb.
KB has to realise that she needs to see off Farage before she tackles SKS. Business before pleasure.
If that's her plan, the data in the header shows it's not working. Current Labour and Lib Dem supporters think Badenoch is just as horrible as Farage while almost as many Conservatives prefer him to her. Suggests Conservatives could fall further to Reform with a much smaller fall for Labour.
No on present polls Reform are gaining redwall and ex industrial hard leave Labour seats Kemi can't reach while she was wins back rural seats and soft Leave town and suburban seats the Tories lost to Labour in July
It wasn't clear from my post but I think we're talking about different things. There has been a significant increase since the election in C+R vote share back to its norm of slightly less than half. I think that's what you're picking up.
The figures above reflect the changed composition of party support. Assuming Farage is not happy with a third place vote share and a fourth or lower place seat share, and is out for the kill, the figures above suggest most of that extra support will come from the Conservatives and not Labour. We would need adjust the Calculus accordingly.
The curious thing is that Red Wall Reform is a dog that barks a lot, but (so far) rarely bites. No seats in 2019. Even in 2024, the seats they won all had elected Conservatives in the past... Seats the Conservatives would expect to win in a reasonable year.
There's even something skewy in the models used by Professor Curtice (whom God preserve). The 2024 exit poll had a dozen or so Grimtown North seats falling to the Faragists... and they didn't.
That might change, with enough votes it has to change, but it's odd.
The MoreinCommon MRP poll on Sunday had redwall Labour seats from Llanelli to Hull, Stoke to Burnley and Bolsover to Blyth falling to Reform now
My seat, Durham North, was down to go to Reform too.
If Reform keep up the momentum and get their candidate selection in order I see no reason why they cannot make a great many gains especially if Labour and the hapless Reeves fail to deliver.
Gaining councillors too will give them a boost when it comes to profile and campaigning in elections in future.
I think he's right though - we were in Chester over the weekend and I don't remember seeing a queue of taxis at 10pm on a Saturday night waiting for passengers...
I've said it before - we are now very much in a situation of have and have nots - hardly surprising when the not particular fancy meal for 2 in Chester was £95...
I did go out on the Friday before xmas expecting the pub and curry house to be rammed beyond belief as in previous years. But no. Busy, but not crazy.
Anecdata?
It's all Anecdata - but I suspect it's right, going out is getting expensive so people are being careful.
That's long been true in a number of areas.
Because my rowing club does quite a bit of non-competitive rowing, we have ancient crocks like me in the same boats as the twenty somethings. It's quite noticeable that the younger people regard going to the pub as an expensive, special occasion.
Which it is. Compare the price of 4 pints to the minimum wage....
Kemi Badenoch will be in trouble after the May locals if Reform pip her and outperform expectations, and probably in terminal trouble after the May 2026 round.
At the moment, that's what I expect to happen.
I think there is zero chance that Reform end up with more seats than the Tories but 100% chance that Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories.
My current best guess, looking at the relative shares in 2021to now, and current trends, is:
Con lose 600 to 1745 Lab stand still at 1345 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 400 to 402
All the smaller parties gain at the expense of Con and Lab. Anti-incumbency. If this should happen, will Badenoch be in trouble or will there be relief within the Tories that it's not worse?
I expect that Labour will be down, too. There's still ground for them to lose in Durham, Lancashire, and the Midlands.
The honours list just gets me so annoyed. It is so random and rewards so many for just doing their job. The differentiation between awards based upon status also annoys me eg a captain of industry gets a knighthood, whereas the dinner lady gets an MBE.
I remember two agents doing the same job for years at elections. One was a volunteer and the other paid. The paid one got at OBE, the unpaid one nothing. Madness.
The only awards should be for gallantry and voluntary service. Just those. And the level of award should be commensurate with your bravery or service and not their social standing.
The only ones worth noting this time around are for 4 of the subpostmasters who have been campaigning to right this injustice.
Even with those it is tinged with the belief that this is state palming them off with baubles instead of giving them proper timely compensation.
Anne Reid, the actress, should have got more than a CBE. One of our finest actresses.
And lucky enough to have ended up on the cutting room floor of Love Actually.
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
As far as I know Dyson who owns £550 million of previously tax exempt assets and who is outraged he should now have to pay a very favourable rate on them, has not done a single day's work mucking out cows.
While a bit of a cheap shot, have you considered taking up medicine yourself? There are plenty of vacancies.
Without giving away too much I have worked alongside the medical profession all my life. Most (like all professions) are decent people but they have a level of entitlement that is extraordinary. The BMA sucks the lifeblood out of the NHS and the UK media and political class touches the forelock to them on a daily basis. No-one ever points out on the BBC that doctors wage increases are paid at the expense of other "more lowly" clinical professionals. Doctors will bleat that they have to take a long time to get qualified, well bully for them. They are the greedy fat cats of the public sector. The BMA needs to be careful that one day that when the fawning of the media becomes more questioning the public might start to realise that doctors are no more virtuous than many other professionals and a lot more greedy.
As for Dyson, he could be dealt with very differently to family farms, and pointing to hyperbolic examples does not make a good reason for bullying those who have family farming businesses and other types of family businesses. It was just pure Labour spite, with lies and exaggerations thrown in to justify it.
£550 million isn't a hyperbolic example. It is a prime example of an asset being used purely for tax avoidance. Land prices reflect the value of that tax avoidance. The return created by actual farming no way supports those prices.
If you are a "family farming business" owning your land you might be very happy to offload it at inflated prices to tax avoiders, even if you don't admit that's the real reason why you're angry with Rachel Reeves. But that's no reason for the rest of us go along with it. It is remarkable that the Conservatives have picked this hill to die on.
His managerial career is one of successive failure.
When will owners realise that just because a person was a good player, it doesn't make them a good manager? It's a completely different skill set.
Up to a point, Lord Foxy. (Hmm, I see there are gongs for two in your speciality!)
Every successful football manager used to play at a high level, almost without exception.
I'm not saying that playing at a high level prevents someone from being a good manager, but there are many good players, and a fair number of excellent managers had fairly mundane footballing careers, such as Fergurson, Mourinho, Klopp, Ranieri, O'Neil, etc.
Incidentally, I have no expectation of getting named in the Honours, nor any desire to. I think it Ruritanian farce.
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
Most of that is nonsense. But it is interesting that the very richest doctors needed a special tax concession on their pensions. Because they had hit maximum pension.
I am sorry, but none of it is "nonsense". Some may be opinion, but it is opinion based upon observation. The medical profession is featherbedded. It might well be a stressful job in most though not all cases, but it is probably the safest job in the known universe, whilst not necessarily being any more stressful than similarly paid positions. For the odd doctor that is sacked, they go and find another role in the NHS. Considering it is such a safe job it is exceptionally well compensated and pensioned. Additionally they may go and do private work on the side. It is an absurdity that NHS doctors, trained at the taxpayers expense, have patients on lengthy waiting lists, but if you want to see one quickly they will happily take your money to see them within days. Many of them are milking the system.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
If that is the plan, the execution leaves a fair bit to be desired. Kemi is a fighter, and she is fighting. It's just her choice of battlefields (RefUK membership figures, GB News presenter choices) are dumb.
KB has to realise that she needs to see off Farage before she tackles SKS. Business before pleasure.
If that's her plan, the data in the header shows it's not working. Current Labour and Lib Dem supporters think Badenoch is just as horrible as Farage while almost as many Conservatives prefer him to her. Suggests Conservatives could fall further to Reform with a much smaller fall for Labour.
The problem there is that everyone is making the assumption that Reform and the Toproes are interchangeable.
But most Reform voters are “none of the above” voters - and they aren’t going to be voting Tory for a while because the Tories failed to deliver in 2019
And many Tory voters (and ex-Tory voters like myself) would vote for [almost] absolutely anyone over Farage.
Kemi may yet have the last laugh over Reform and their data.
Forget the accuracy of the numbers as Reform have been perhaps a little "too eager" to evidence and prove that is pretty accurate.
The BIGGER and potentially MASSIVE problem for Reform and a saver for Kemi is that it would appear that anyone from anywhere in the World can register as a Member and more impactful, that anyone of any age can created an email address and join with no validation of where they are from, who they are, how old they are or even IF they exist.
Now a £10 a pop ....with Billioniares / Multi Millionaires FUNDING them, it's a very very convenient back door and efficient way of data farming to created "alleged" mass Membership.
It needs investigating for sure!
Potential GOLD-DUST for Kemi and Labour!
Reform’s whole MO is to swamp social media and give the impression of an unstoppable bandwagon.
It’s about funding bots, useful idiots and fake members. After all to do so is just recycling money. I still feel they have a ceiling.
They do have a ceiling. All parties do. But the likes of Trump, Orban, Erdogan and Le Pen all poll way beyond the 30% that might be enough to win in a FPTP system with 5-6 significant parties, unless Britain is somehow different (which is arguable for Hungary and Turkey but not so much for the US and France (and there are other, closer examples that could be cited too).
And Corbyn proved that populist parties can generate very large memberships even when not particularly popular overall. Membership isn't a function of general popularity but of relatively intense support. One problem the Tories have had for a while, since political party membership stopped being a fairly normal social thing, is that very few people are strongly attached to them - and often those that are are not the sort of people who are very helpful to a party. That can be an issue for other parties too but the Tories lack a 'mission' almost as a point of identity (rightly, IMO - the Conservative Party at its best is simply about governing well: what works, what delivers, is what is right).
But Reform does have a mission, or at least claims to and appears to, to those who want it to and those only half-listening. That will draw members, activists and support. Quite probably pretty fractious, inefficient and wasteful activists but they'll be seen and heard and sometimes that's more than half the battle.
Nothing suggests to me that the UK is somehow insulated from the rise of populist right wing parties, in a way that other Western democracies are not. The main bar to any new party is the FPTP system, but if they can leap that bar, then they can pick up a lot of seats.
The honours list just gets me so annoyed. It is so random and rewards so many for just doing their job. The differentiation between awards based upon status also annoys me eg a captain of industry gets a knighthood, whereas the dinner lady gets an MBE.
I remember two agents doing the same job for years at elections. One was a volunteer and the other paid. The paid one got at OBE, the unpaid one nothing. Madness.
The only awards should be for gallantry and voluntary service. Just those. And the level of award should be commensurate with your bravery or service and not their social standing.
The only ones worth noting this time around are for 4 of the subpostmasters who have been campaigning to right this injustice.
Even with those it is tinged with the belief that this is state palming them off with baubles instead of giving them proper timely compensation.
Anne Reid, the actress, should have got more than a CBE. One of our finest actresses.
And lucky enough to have ended up on the cutting room floor of Love Actually.
Anne Reid Timothy Spall Penelope Wilton David Bradley
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
As bad as United are, we know why we’re bad. Citeh? In a state of complete collapse, without any clue what has gone wrong. And thus no idea how to stop their descent.
It is remarkable that at United this collapse is not unexpected in view of the disastrous management and transfers policies of Amorin's predecessors, but City is astonishing and supposedly due to an ageing team and total loss of confidence
I don’t get it. City have an amazing squad. An amazing manager. A tried and tested way of managing club and players to deliver success.
Nothing has changed. They were sensational for the first few months of the season. And then something fell apart and now they play like they are being managed by Rooney.
You say an amazing manager but the problem with Guardiola is he's facing a situation he's never faced before, so may lack the skills needed to do what needs to be done.
Guardiola is one of the best at taking a good club and making it better, but is he good at taking a worn down/old club and rejuvenating it?
He's never done that before, he's never needed to do so, so now comes across like a rabbit in the headlights.
It's true in all sectors but people can be great managers in some scenarios, but not the right one in others.
Kemi Badenoch will be in trouble after the May locals if Reform pip her and outperform expectations, and probably in terminal trouble after the May 2026 round.
At the moment, that's what I expect to happen.
I think there is zero chance that Reform end up with more seats than the Tories but 100% chance that Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories.
My current best guess, looking at the relative shares in 2021to now, and current trends, is:
Con lose 600 to 1745 Lab stand still at 1345 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 400 to 402
All the smaller parties gain at the expense of Con and Lab. Anti-incumbency. If this should happen, will Badenoch be in trouble or will there be relief within the Tories that it's not worse?
I expect that Labour will be down, too. There's still ground for them to lose in Durham, Lancashire, and the Midlands.
Although labour are the opposition in Durham they are still the largest party and will be on the new boundaries.
They would have been hoping to win it back. That won’t happen now.
The disappointment is that people were dissatisfied with labour, in came the coalition, nothing changes. Goes back to what Rochdale says about the appeal of none of the above.
I’m expecting Reform gains, but not just from Labour, and the Greens May gain a couple too.
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
As bad as United are, we know why we’re bad. Citeh? In a state of complete collapse, without any clue what has gone wrong. And thus no idea how to stop their descent.
It is remarkable that at United this collapse is not unexpected in view of the disastrous management and transfers policies of Amorin's predecessors, but City is astonishing and supposedly due to an ageing team and total loss of confidence
I don’t get it. City have an amazing squad. An amazing manager. A tried and tested way of managing club and players to deliver success.
Nothing has changed. They were sensational for the first few months of the season. And then something fell apart and now they play like they are being managed by Rooney.
You say an amazing manager but the problem with Guardiola is he's facing a situation he's never faced before, so may lack the skills needed to do what needs to be done.
Guardiola is one of the best at taking a good club and making it better, but is he good at taking a worn down/old club and rejuvenating it?
He's never done that before, he's never needed to do so, so now comes across like a rabbit in the headlights.
It's true in all sectors but people can be great managers in some scenarios, but not the right one in others.
Alex Ferguson did it 3 times
Indeed. As much as I hated that as a Liverpool fan, it was something he was amazingly good at.
He very much was of the belief that no player is bigger than the club, and had a ruthless lack of sentimentality when it came to moving on players when the time was right.
Kemi may yet have the last laugh over Reform and their data.
Forget the accuracy of the numbers as Reform have been perhaps a little "too eager" to evidence and prove that is pretty accurate.
The BIGGER and potentially MASSIVE problem for Reform and a saver for Kemi is that it would appear that anyone from anywhere in the World can register as a Member and more impactful, that anyone of any age can created an email address and join with no validation of where they are from, who they are, how old they are or even IF they exist.
Now a £10 a pop ....with Billioniares / Multi Millionaires FUNDING them, it's a very very convenient back door and efficient way of data farming to created "alleged" mass Membership.
It needs investigating for sure!
Potential GOLD-DUST for Kemi and Labour!
Reform’s whole MO is to swamp social media and give the impression of an unstoppable bandwagon.
It’s about funding bots, useful idiots and fake members. After all to do so is just recycling money. I still feel they have a ceiling.
They do have a ceiling. All parties do. But the likes of Trump, Orban, Erdogan and Le Pen all poll way beyond the 30% that might be enough to win in a FPTP system with 5-6 significant parties, unless Britain is somehow different (which is arguable for Hungary and Turkey but not so much for the US and France (and there are other, closer examples that could be cited too).
And Corbyn proved that populist parties can generate very large memberships even when not particularly popular overall. Membership isn't a function of general popularity but of relatively intense support. One problem the Tories have had for a while, since political party membership stopped being a fairly normal social thing, is that very few people are strongly attached to them - and often those that are are not the sort of people who are very helpful to a party. That can be an issue for other parties too but the Tories lack a 'mission' almost as a point of identity (rightly, IMO - the Conservative Party at its best is simply about governing well: what works, what delivers, is what is right).
But Reform does have a mission, or at least claims to and appears to, to those who want it to and those only half-listening. That will draw members, activists and support. Quite probably pretty fractious, inefficient and wasteful activists but they'll be seen and heard and sometimes that's more than half the battle.
The UK is like other countries in some ways and not like them in other ways. We are like the US in using FPTP, but we are (now) like Germany, Italy etc. in having >2 party politics. That combination of multiparty politics and FPTP is probably not stable for long, but it's where we are now and it may make us overall not like any other country.
Trump and Erdoğan won through entryism. They took over existing big parties in an approx. 2 party system. Farage hasn't done that.
Farage is more on an Orbán-like trajectory. Fidesz was a small party for many years in a multiparty system, before he broke through in 1998 to win most seats (although actually second on votes), becoming PM on 29% of the vote. He went on to higher vote shares and polling later. That was all under PR and Hungary is, as you note, a different sort of country, post-Communist.
France is unique in its own way: an ordinal, but not that proportional system; traditionally a 2-party system, but that broke down in 2017; a semi-presidential system. France might be a model, but we don't have that presidential component. The National Rally has taken a long time to get where they are now, and is Farage meant to be Jean-Marie or Marine Le Pen (or both!)? Also, I note Marine Le Pen hasn't won yet! The National Rally did well in the legislative election, but that still only meant coming third. She is leading in polling for the next Presidential election, but the second round polling is very close. She's not a shoo-in.
So, I think Farage and Reform UK might do very well at the next UK general election... and they might not. I absolutely think the Conservatives and Labour need to take Reform seriously and campaign against them, but a number of posters here have jumped from "possible" to "inevitable".
Best odds for biggest party at the next UK general election are: Con 15/8, Lab 7/4, Ref 5/2, LD 77/1, Green 750/1. I think the value bets there are the LibDems, the Greens or just laying everyone in order to bet on an entirely new party. I don't think 5/2 for Reform UK is a value bet.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
If that is the plan, the execution leaves a fair bit to be desired. Kemi is a fighter, and she is fighting. It's just her choice of battlefields (RefUK membership figures, GB News presenter choices) are dumb.
KB has to realise that she needs to see off Farage before she tackles SKS. Business before pleasure.
If that's her plan, the data in the header shows it's not working. Current Labour and Lib Dem supporters think Badenoch is just as horrible as Farage while almost as many Conservatives prefer him to her. Suggests Conservatives could fall further to Reform with a much smaller fall for Labour.
The problem there is that everyone is making the assumption that Reform and the Toproes are interchangeable.
But most Reform voters are “none of the above” voters - and they aren’t going to be voting Tory for a while because the Tories failed to deliver in 2019
And many Tory voters (and ex-Tory voters like myself) would vote for [almost] absolutely anyone over Farage.
I wouldn't.
Vote Reform or vote for the Batshit Greens or the middle class centrist Dads of the Lib Dems.
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
As far as I know Dyson who owns £550 million of previously tax exempt assets and who is outraged he should now have to pay a very favourable rate on them, has not done a single day's work mucking out cows.
While a bit of a cheap shot, have you considered taking up medicine yourself? There are plenty of vacancies.
Without giving away too much I have worked alongside the medical profession all my life. Most (like all professions) are decent people but they have a level of entitlement that is extraordinary. The BMA sucks the lifeblood out of the NHS and the UK media and political class touches the forelock to them on a daily basis. No-one ever points out on the BBC that doctors wage increases are paid at the expense of other "more lowly" clinical professionals. Doctors will bleat that they have to take a long time to get qualified, well bully for them. They are the greedy fat cats of the public sector. The BMA needs to be careful that one day that when the fawning of the media becomes more questioning the public might start to realise that doctors are no more virtuous than many other professionals and a lot more greedy.
As for Dyson, he could be dealt with very differently to family farms, and pointing to hyperbolic examples does not make a good reason for bullying those who have family farming businesses and other types of family businesses. It was just pure Labour spite, with lies and exaggerations thrown in to justify it.
£550 million isn't a hyperbolic example. It is a prime example of an asset being used purely for tax avoidance. Land prices reflect the value of that tax avoidance. The return created by actual farming no way supports those prices.
If you are a "family farming business" owning your land you might be very happy to offload it at inflated prices to tax avoiders, even if you don't admit that's the real reason why you're angry with Rachel Reeves. But that's no reason for the rest of us go along with it. It is remarkable that the Conservatives have picked this hill to die on.
Duh, if you sold it to Dyson, or anyone else you would pay capital gains unless you rolled it over into another business. And yes Dyson is a hyperbolic example. I completely agree that Dyson should not benefit. If this had been about tackling Dyson and his ilk it would have been easy to frame that. It is not, it is simple Labour spite. Sorry it is too complex for you to understand, but I suppose causing a few old rural folk to top themselves because there has been no transitional time and force families to sell up is not your problem. And here was me thinking you were someone who believed in fairness. Clearly you do not.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
She is not a leader. She''d be better in a backroom role doing the hard work on policy etc save that she does not seem keen on hard work either.
What is surprising is that, despite becoming leader at her second attempt, she has been unable to articulate at all what Conservatism means, why she wants to be leader and where she wants to take the party and the country. That's a big failing.
She also lacks charm. Now charm can be overrated (eg Johnson or the hail-fellow-let's-have-a-pint charm of Farage) but a politician - especially a leader - should have some ability to connect, charm, persuade & appear interested in others. She doesn't. She's brittle and seems more interested in getting into silly fights over unimportant matters.
She - like far too many politicians in all parties - is too fond of repeating old mantras and thinking that what worked in the past will work again if they can only package it right. It won't. There needs to be a proper analysis of what is going wrong now and intelligent thought about the remedies for a different future. We are not in 1979 or 1997 and reheating what sort of worked then is lazy politics. This applies to Starmer too.
My overwhelming impression is of someone 10 years younger than she actually is. There is an immaturity there. It will be fatal for her unless she grows up - and fast.
Yet on present polls Kemi will gain 100 seats and get a hung parliament, better even than Corbyn 2017 did from where he started
That's more to do with how badly the Tories did at the general than evidence Badenoch is doing well now.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
If that is the plan, the execution leaves a fair bit to be desired. Kemi is a fighter, and she is fighting. It's just her choice of battlefields (RefUK membership figures, GB News presenter choices) are dumb.
KB has to realise that she needs to see off Farage before she tackles SKS. Business before pleasure.
If that's her plan, the data in the header shows it's not working. Current Labour and Lib Dem supporters think Badenoch is just as horrible as Farage while almost as many Conservatives prefer him to her. Suggests Conservatives could fall further to Reform with a much smaller fall for Labour.
The problem there is that everyone is making the assumption that Reform and the Toproes are interchangeable.
But most Reform voters are “none of the above” voters - and they aren’t going to be voting Tory for a while because the Tories failed to deliver in 2019
And many Tory voters (and ex-Tory voters like myself) would vote for [almost] absolutely anyone over Farage.
Indeed. But Farage is quite popular with Tory voters overall, and he might also win some Labour voters.
It's simplistic to talk about him "uniting the right", but there's still potential for him to get to 30%. And if the rest of the votes are split five ways - Labour, Tories, Lib Dems, Greens and Nationalists - then that is plenty.
All politics is relative. Reform will, as things stand, do well if Lab and Con continue to fail and unless some new star comes along. Thus far the LDs can only shine at by-elections and in the special bits of geography where they and not Labour are the occupying squirrels. No sign exists of this extending.
Which means that, as nature abhors a vcauum, in the particular times we are in, of overwhelming failure of Lab and Con, if that carries on, Reform will do well. How well? No idea.
The LibDems won a lot more MPs than Reform in July. I expect they will win a lot more councillors in May.
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
Ask about rejoin requiring the Euro and free movement to rejoin the EU and that 60% becomes 30%
Even a majority of Leavers now want a closer relationship with the EU.
And for those who think the general public see the issue as a settled one,
Among the public as a whole, just over half (51%) think there should be a new referendum within the next five years – more specifically, a third (29%) believe there ‘definitely’ should be a vote, while around a quarter (23%) say there ‘probably’ should be one. Meanwhile, just 36% of Britons think there should not be another vote – 22% ‘definitely’ and 13% ‘probably’. Thirteen per cent said they don’t know – excluding this group, the proportions are 59% in favour of another EU vote and 41% against.
Kemi may yet have the last laugh over Reform and their data.
Forget the accuracy of the numbers as Reform have been perhaps a little "too eager" to evidence and prove that is pretty accurate.
The BIGGER and potentially MASSIVE problem for Reform and a saver for Kemi is that it would appear that anyone from anywhere in the World can register as a Member and more impactful, that anyone of any age can created an email address and join with no validation of where they are from, who they are, how old they are or even IF they exist.
Now a £10 a pop ....with Billioniares / Multi Millionaires FUNDING them, it's a very very convenient back door and efficient way of data farming to created "alleged" mass Membership.
It needs investigating for sure!
Potential GOLD-DUST for Kemi and Labour!
Reform’s whole MO is to swamp social media and give the impression of an unstoppable bandwagon.
It’s about funding bots, useful idiots and fake members. After all to do so is just recycling money. I still feel they have a ceiling.
They do have a ceiling. All parties do. But the likes of Trump, Orban, Erdogan and Le Pen all poll way beyond the 30% that might be enough to win in a FPTP system with 5-6 significant parties, unless Britain is somehow different (which is arguable for Hungary and Turkey but not so much for the US and France (and there are other, closer examples that could be cited too).
And Corbyn proved that populist parties can generate very large memberships even when not particularly popular overall. Membership isn't a function of general popularity but of relatively intense support. One problem the Tories have had for a while, since political party membership stopped being a fairly normal social thing, is that very few people are strongly attached to them - and often those that are are not the sort of people who are very helpful to a party. That can be an issue for other parties too but the Tories lack a 'mission' almost as a point of identity (rightly, IMO - the Conservative Party at its best is simply about governing well: what works, what delivers, is what is right).
But Reform does have a mission, or at least claims to and appears to, to those who want it to and those only half-listening. That will draw members, activists and support. Quite probably pretty fractious, inefficient and wasteful activists but they'll be seen and heard and sometimes that's more than half the battle.
The UK is like other countries in some ways and not like them in other ways. We are like the US in using FPTP, but we are (now) like Germany, Italy etc. in having >2 party politics. That combination of multiparty politics and FPTP is probably not stable for long, but it's where we are now and it may make us overall not like any other country.
Trump and Erdoğan won through entryism. They took over existing big parties in an approx. 2 party system. Farage hasn't done that.
Farage is more on an Orbán-like trajectory. Fidesz was a small party for many years in a multiparty system, before he broke through in 1998 to win most seats (although actually second on votes), becoming PM on 29% of the vote. He went on to higher vote shares and polling later. That was all under PR and Hungary is, as you note, a different sort of country, post-Communist.
France is unique in its own way: an ordinal, but not that proportional system; traditionally a 2-party system, but that broke down in 2017; a semi-presidential system. France might be a model, but we don't have that presidential component. The National Rally has taken a long time to get where they are now, and is Farage meant to be Jean-Marie or Marine Le Pen (or both!)? Also, I note Marine Le Pen hasn't won yet! The National Rally did well in the legislative election, but that still only meant coming third. She is leading in polling for the next Presidential election, but the second round polling is very close. She's not a shoo-in.
So, I think Farage and Reform UK might do very well at the next UK general election... and they might not. I absolutely think the Conservatives and Labour need to take Reform seriously and campaign against them, but a number of posters here have jumped from "possible" to "inevitable".
Best odds for biggest party at the next UK general election are: Con 15/8, Lab 7/4, Ref 5/2, LD 77/1, Green 750/1. I think the value bets there are the LibDems, the Greens or just laying everyone in order to bet on an entirely new party. I don't think 5/2 for Reform UK is a value bet.
In French terms, are you sure Nigel Farage is not more akin to President Macron, whose En Marche party was created less than a decade ago?
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
As bad as United are, we know why we’re bad. Citeh? In a state of complete collapse, without any clue what has gone wrong. And thus no idea how to stop their descent.
It is remarkable that at United this collapse is not unexpected in view of the disastrous management and transfers policies of Amorin's predecessors, but City is astonishing and supposedly due to an ageing team and total loss of confidence
I don’t get it. City have an amazing squad. An amazing manager. A tried and tested way of managing club and players to deliver success.
Nothing has changed. They were sensational for the first few months of the season. And then something fell apart and now they play like they are being managed by Rooney.
You say an amazing manager but the problem with Guardiola is he's facing a situation he's never faced before, so may lack the skills needed to do what needs to be done.
Guardiola is one of the best at taking a good club and making it better, but is he good at taking a worn down/old club and rejuvenating it?
He's never done that before, he's never needed to do so, so now comes across like a rabbit in the headlights.
It's true in all sectors but people can be great managers in some scenarios, but not the right one in others.
Alex Ferguson did it 3 times
Indeed. As much as I hated that as a Liverpool fan, it was something he was amazingly good at.
He very much was of the belief that no player is bigger than the club, and had a ruthless lack of sentimentality when it came to moving on players when the time was right.
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
About half of all doctors are GPs and GP practices are largely small businesses run by the GP/GPs, so I think plenty of doctors are familiar with running a business.
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
Most of that is nonsense. But it is interesting that the very richest doctors needed a special tax concession on their pensions. Because they had hit maximum pension.
I am sorry, but none of it is "nonsense". Some may be opinion, but it is opinion based upon observation. The medical profession is featherbedded. It might well be a stressful job in most though not all cases, but it is probably the safest job in the known universe, whilst not necessarily being any more stressful than similarly paid positions. For the odd doctor that is sacked, they go and find another role in the NHS. Considering it is such a safe job it is exceptionally well compensated and pensioned. Additionally they may go and do private work on the side. It is an absurdity that NHS doctors, trained at the taxpayers expense, have patients on lengthy waiting lists, but if you want to see one quickly they will happily take your money to see them within days. Many of them are milking the system.
Hilarious thought.
Imagine the government eliminates agency working in the NHS, due to better staffing.
Most likely result - a strike to raise pay, to compensate for reduced earnings.
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
Ask about rejoin requiring the Euro and free movement to rejoin the EU and that 60% becomes 30%
Even a majority of Leavers now want a closer relationship with the EU.
And for those who think the general public see the issue as a settled one,
Among the public as a whole, just over half (51%) think there should be a new referendum within the next five years – more specifically, a third (29%) believe there ‘definitely’ should be a vote, while around a quarter (23%) say there ‘probably’ should be one. Meanwhile, just 36% of Britons think there should not be another vote – 22% ‘definitely’ and 13% ‘probably’. Thirteen per cent said they don’t know – excluding this group, the proportions are 59% in favour of another EU vote and 41% against.
And yes, it does essentially split according to how people would vote in that hypothetical referendum.
(The National Centre for Social Research are the kind of people who do their polling properly.)
On the other hand we have the Ipsos Issues Index for which Europe is registered as the main issue by 1% of voters (hello @Roger ) and an issue at all by 3% of voters.
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
As bad as United are, we know why we’re bad. Citeh? In a state of complete collapse, without any clue what has gone wrong. And thus no idea how to stop their descent.
It is remarkable that at United this collapse is not unexpected in view of the disastrous management and transfers policies of Amorin's predecessors, but City is astonishing and supposedly due to an ageing team and total loss of confidence
I don’t get it. City have an amazing squad. An amazing manager. A tried and tested way of managing club and players to deliver success.
Nothing has changed. They were sensational for the first few months of the season. And then something fell apart and now they play like they are being managed by Rooney.
You say an amazing manager but the problem with Guardiola is he's facing a situation he's never faced before, so may lack the skills needed to do what needs to be done.
Guardiola is one of the best at taking a good club and making it better, but is he good at taking a worn down/old club and rejuvenating it?
He's never done that before, he's never needed to do so, so now comes across like a rabbit in the headlights.
It's true in all sectors but people can be great managers in some scenarios, but not the right one in others.
Alex Ferguson did it 3 times
Indeed. As much as I hated that as a Liverpool fan, it was something he was amazingly good at.
He very much was of the belief that no player is bigger than the club, and had a ruthless lack of sentimentality when it came to moving on players when the time was right.
Hence why Rashford needs to go
Perhaps Rashford should be moved on; he has done nothing for a while. But the thing is, he has not been playing and performances have still been shocking.
For as long as there continues to be polls like this one, I doubt you will be hearing too many distress signals from Conservative MPs (who love nothing more than sending them).
She will be given the time to formulate her policies and position, as is correct, when it is 4 1/2 years away from next GE.
IMO, the MRP element giving Labour most seats, is reliant on their ability to be as economical with their share across seats. I really don't believe that this will survive 5 years of this government, they will be the ones people want out. It will be the opposite, they will be attacked from all sides.
On similar lines, should the LibDems be aiming to move on from Sir Ed this Parliament ?
Decentish chap, but he's served his purpose, and probably achieved as much as he's ever going to do. And will be 64 by the next election.
Make the most of having a reasonably sized pool of replacements while it still exists.
Personally, I would like to see Ed be the LD candidate for London Mayor in 2028. He would do far better than any other likely alternative candidate.
I don't believe he actually lives in London, which would be interested - IIRC in 1997 he campaigned against "The Tory Candidate from Dover".
More importantly, having got the LDs out of the mud and with a lot of very good people in Parliament, he'll want to make sure there is a generation of Ed-replacements who understand Parliament.
That's what Alan Clark used to say Mrs Thatcher got wrong - there was not a sufficient group of Praetorian Guard and next generation around, and dependent on, her. So in the end the tall poppy went down.
He also needs sufficient capital built up for his son, his retirement and his family - though I'd say he's better set up than many others.
IMO he'll want to do this term, and think about going in the first half of the next one, if feasible. Then consider having a term as an 'elder statesman', or maybe the Lords.
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
About half of all doctors are GPs and GP practices are largely small businesses run by the GP/GPs, so I think plenty of doctors are familiar with running a business.
Hmm. Something is going on, although I have no details. My medical mole whispered that most GPs are no longer partners but employees, and a lot of GP practices are being bought out and consolidated. Private equity?
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
As far as I know Dyson who owns £550 million of previously tax exempt assets and who is outraged he should now have to pay a very favourable rate on them, has not done a single day's work mucking out cows.
While a bit of a cheap shot, have you considered taking up medicine yourself? There are plenty of vacancies.
Without giving away too much I have worked alongside the medical profession all my life. Most (like all professions) are decent people but they have a level of entitlement that is extraordinary. The BMA sucks the lifeblood out of the NHS and the UK media and political class touches the forelock to them on a daily basis. No-one ever points out on the BBC that doctors wage increases are paid at the expense of other "more lowly" clinical professionals. Doctors will bleat that they have to take a long time to get qualified, well bully for them. They are the greedy fat cats of the public sector. The BMA needs to be careful that one day that when the fawning of the media becomes more questioning the public might start to realise that doctors are no more virtuous than many other professionals and a lot more greedy.
As for Dyson, he could be dealt with very differently to family farms, and pointing to hyperbolic examples does not make a good reason for bullying those who have family farming businesses and other types of family businesses. It was just pure Labour spite, with lies and exaggerations thrown in to justify it.
£550 million isn't a hyperbolic example. It is a prime example of an asset being used purely for tax avoidance. Land prices reflect the value of that tax avoidance. The return created by actual farming no way supports those prices.
If you are a "family farming business" owning your land you might be very happy to offload it at inflated prices to tax avoiders, even if you don't admit that's the real reason why you're angry with Rachel Reeves. But that's no reason for the rest of us go along with it. It is remarkable that the Conservatives have picked this hill to die on.
Duh, if you sold it to Dyson, or anyone else you would pay capital gains unless you rolled it over into another business. And yes Dyson is a hyperbolic example. I completely agree that Dyson should not benefit. If this had been about tackling Dyson and his ilk it would have been easy to frame that. It is not, it is simple Labour spite. Sorry it is too complex for you to understand, but I suppose causing a few old rural folk to top themselves because there has been no transitional time and force families to sell up is not your problem. And here was me thinking you were someone who believed in fairness. Clearly you do not.
If the idea was to prevent tax avoidance on inheritance tax, then the way to avoid penalising "real" farmers would be to target the extraction of the money.
It's not much of a tax dodge if your money is stuck in a relatively unproductive asset*.
So create an inheritance tax charge on the farm - payable when *sold*. For sanity and fairness, make it once only. So when the inheritor dies, there is still only one charge owing.
So if you farm for 20 generations, no tax. But if you sell the farm, tax time.
*I do wonder about solar farming. If you combine that with sheep grazing under the panels - which works well - do you still have an agricultural property?
Kemi may yet have the last laugh over Reform and their data.
Forget the accuracy of the numbers as Reform have been perhaps a little "too eager" to evidence and prove that is pretty accurate.
The BIGGER and potentially MASSIVE problem for Reform and a saver for Kemi is that it would appear that anyone from anywhere in the World can register as a Member and more impactful, that anyone of any age can created an email address and join with no validation of where they are from, who they are, how old they are or even IF they exist.
Now a £10 a pop ....with Billioniares / Multi Millionaires FUNDING them, it's a very very convenient back door and efficient way of data farming to created "alleged" mass Membership.
It needs investigating for sure!
Potential GOLD-DUST for Kemi and Labour!
Reform’s whole MO is to swamp social media and give the impression of an unstoppable bandwagon.
It’s about funding bots, useful idiots and fake members. After all to do so is just recycling money. I still feel they have a ceiling.
They do have a ceiling. All parties do. But the likes of Trump, Orban, Erdogan and Le Pen all poll way beyond the 30% that might be enough to win in a FPTP system with 5-6 significant parties, unless Britain is somehow different (which is arguable for Hungary and Turkey but not so much for the US and France (and there are other, closer examples that could be cited too).
And Corbyn proved that populist parties can generate very large memberships even when not particularly popular overall. Membership isn't a function of general popularity but of relatively intense support. One problem the Tories have had for a while, since political party membership stopped being a fairly normal social thing, is that very few people are strongly attached to them - and often those that are are not the sort of people who are very helpful to a party. That can be an issue for other parties too but the Tories lack a 'mission' almost as a point of identity (rightly, IMO - the Conservative Party at its best is simply about governing well: what works, what delivers, is what is right).
But Reform does have a mission, or at least claims to and appears to, to those who want it to and those only half-listening. That will draw members, activists and support. Quite probably pretty fractious, inefficient and wasteful activists but they'll be seen and heard and sometimes that's more than half the battle.
The UK is like other countries in some ways and not like them in other ways. We are like the US in using FPTP, but we are (now) like Germany, Italy etc. in having >2 party politics. That combination of multiparty politics and FPTP is probably not stable for long, but it's where we are now and it may make us overall not like any other country.
Trump and Erdoğan won through entryism. They took over existing big parties in an approx. 2 party system. Farage hasn't done that.
Farage is more on an Orbán-like trajectory. Fidesz was a small party for many years in a multiparty system, before he broke through in 1998 to win most seats (although actually second on votes), becoming PM on 29% of the vote. He went on to higher vote shares and polling later. That was all under PR and Hungary is, as you note, a different sort of country, post-Communist.
France is unique in its own way: an ordinal, but not that proportional system; traditionally a 2-party system, but that broke down in 2017; a semi-presidential system. France might be a model, but we don't have that presidential component. The National Rally has taken a long time to get where they are now, and is Farage meant to be Jean-Marie or Marine Le Pen (or both!)? Also, I note Marine Le Pen hasn't won yet! The National Rally did well in the legislative election, but that still only meant coming third. She is leading in polling for the next Presidential election, but the second round polling is very close. She's not a shoo-in.
So, I think Farage and Reform UK might do very well at the next UK general election... and they might not. I absolutely think the Conservatives and Labour need to take Reform seriously and campaign against them, but a number of posters here have jumped from "possible" to "inevitable".
Best odds for biggest party at the next UK general election are: Con 15/8, Lab 7/4, Ref 5/2, LD 77/1, Green 750/1. I think the value bets there are the LibDems, the Greens or just laying everyone in order to bet on an entirely new party. I don't think 5/2 for Reform UK is a value bet.
Orban led the radical Liberal Party FIDESZ but then went on to merge that party with the Conservative MPP- it is from that merger that he was able to control the right.
OT we mentioned the Rory Campbell failed betting syndicate story. It has been suggested that the Mail was wrong to imply that investors were rich mugs fleeced of their life savings, and they were mainly sophisticated players in the betting world who understood the risks. But however it plays out, its ripples might prove unwelcome if it strengthens the case for restrictions.
His managerial career is one of successive failure.
When will owners realise that just because a person was a good player, it doesn't make them a good manager? It's a completely different skill set.
Up to a point, Lord Foxy. (Hmm, I see there are gongs for two in your speciality!)
Every successful football manager used to play at a high level, almost without exception.
Depends upon your definition of high level.
Klopp as a player never played in the European Cup. He never even played in the top flight throughout his entire playing career I believe.
However as a Manager he took his club into the top flight, then had a stellar career that he did not have as a player.
Based on his career as a player alone, who here would even have heard of Klopp?
There are relatively few players who competed at the very highest level - top-class internationals and club players, like Rooney - who have gone on to be successful managers, despite the relative ease they have in getting into coaching, and the multiple chances they'll get once in the role.
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
As far as I know Dyson who owns £550 million of previously tax exempt assets and who is outraged he should now have to pay a very favourable rate on them, has not done a single day's work mucking out cows.
While a bit of a cheap shot, have you considered taking up medicine yourself? There are plenty of vacancies.
Without giving away too much I have worked alongside the medical profession all my life. Most (like all professions) are decent people but they have a level of entitlement that is extraordinary. The BMA sucks the lifeblood out of the NHS and the UK media and political class touches the forelock to them on a daily basis. No-one ever points out on the BBC that doctors wage increases are paid at the expense of other "more lowly" clinical professionals. Doctors will bleat that they have to take a long time to get qualified, well bully for them. They are the greedy fat cats of the public sector. The BMA needs to be careful that one day that when the fawning of the media becomes more questioning the public might start to realise that doctors are no more virtuous than many other professionals and a lot more greedy.
As for Dyson, he could be dealt with very differently to family farms, and pointing to hyperbolic examples does not make a good reason for bullying those who have family farming businesses and other types of family businesses. It was just pure Labour spite, with lies and exaggerations thrown in to justify it.
£550 million isn't a hyperbolic example. It is a prime example of an asset being used purely for tax avoidance. Land prices reflect the value of that tax avoidance. The return created by actual farming no way supports those prices.
If you are a "family farming business" owning your land you might be very happy to offload it at inflated prices to tax avoiders, even if you don't admit that's the real reason why you're angry with Rachel Reeves. But that's no reason for the rest of us go along with it. It is remarkable that the Conservatives have picked this hill to die on.
Duh, if you sold it to Dyson, or anyone else you would pay capital gains unless you rolled it over into another business. And yes Dyson is a hyperbolic example. I completely agree that Dyson should not benefit. If this had been about tackling Dyson and his ilk it would have been easy to frame that. It is not, it is simple Labour spite. Sorry it is too complex for you to understand, but I suppose causing a few old rural folk to top themselves because there has been no transitional time and force families to sell up is not your problem. And here was me thinking you were someone who believed in fairness. Clearly you do not.
You patronise.
Farmers who own their land benefit from inflated land prices due to it being a popular tax avoidance scheme for non farming people. The tax, or the absence of it, is on the asset and not on what you do with it. It is complex, not least because real farmers get a bunch of exemptions. Yes there are edge cases, and perhaps the government should do more to address them, but I prefer to keep things factual.
In Asda this morning. One of the women stacking shelves was a dead ringer facially for Rachel Reeves. I told her this, she said "Who is tha, never heard of her". So much for the public interest in politics or even the news
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
If that is the plan, the execution leaves a fair bit to be desired. Kemi is a fighter, and she is fighting. It's just her choice of battlefields (RefUK membership figures, GB News presenter choices) are dumb.
KB has to realise that she needs to see off Farage before she tackles SKS. Business before pleasure.
If that's her plan, the data in the header shows it's not working. Current Labour and Lib Dem supporters think Badenoch is just as horrible as Farage while almost as many Conservatives prefer him to her. Suggests Conservatives could fall further to Reform with a much smaller fall for Labour.
The problem there is that everyone is making the assumption that Reform and the Toproes are interchangeable.
But most Reform voters are “none of the above” voters - and they aren’t going to be voting Tory for a while because the Tories failed to deliver in 2019
And many Tory voters (and ex-Tory voters like myself) would vote for [almost] absolutely anyone over Farage.
Indeed. But Farage is quite popular with Tory voters overall, and he might also win some Labour voters.
It's simplistic to talk about him "uniting the right", but there's still potential for him to get to 30%. And if the rest of the votes are split five ways - Labour, Tories, Lib Dems, Greens and Nationalists - then that is plenty.
I’m sceptical that “nice Britain/centrist dads” will all unite to keep out Reform. It seems to me that Reform are getting support from (a) people unhappy about mega-immigration (b) voters who want to stick it to the man. That’s a lot of people.
Aye, it's the difference between a positive and negative vote. People thinking Farage is yuck or most people don't want what Reform offers may be missing the point.
If you're voting against something (a protest vote) you don't necessarily have to pro- whatever they're offering so long as you're against what others offer or want to kick other parties. Negativity about Starmer is already pretty high and Badenoch's about as inspiring a prospect as cold gravy.
Also, of course, handy for the Lib Dems.
My (not very tactful) take on Farage is that he needs to keep his voters angry enough and distracted enough, so they don't pay attention to the reality that he is a shit-shovelling troll. It's a different style of Trumpish.
He needs his supporters and potential voters to be gullible. I don't know whether they, and how many of them, are.
Keep them shouting, and they won't read the manifesto and fall into the black hole therein.
OT we mentioned the Rory Campbell failed betting syndicate story. It has been suggested that the Mail was wrong to imply that investors were rich mugs fleeced of their life savings, and they were mainly sophisticated players in the betting world who understood the risks. But however it plays out, its ripples might prove unwelcome if it strengthens the case for restrictions.
It has given us the joy of Ali Campbell reassuring investors that all was well. About 45 minutes before The End.
Along with Charlie Falconer.
The claim that Campbell senior lost a pile of money is the cherry on top…
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
Most of that is nonsense. But it is interesting that the very richest doctors needed a special tax concession on their pensions. Because they had hit maximum pension.
I am sorry, but none of it is "nonsense". Some may be opinion, but it is opinion based upon observation. The medical profession is featherbedded. It might well be a stressful job in most though not all cases, but it is probably the safest job in the known universe, whilst not necessarily being any more stressful than similarly paid positions. For the odd doctor that is sacked, they go and find another role in the NHS. Considering it is such a safe job it is exceptionally well compensated and pensioned. Additionally they may go and do private work on the side. It is an absurdity that NHS doctors, trained at the taxpayers expense, have patients on lengthy waiting lists, but if you want to see one quickly they will happily take your money to see them within days. Many of them are milking the system.
Hmmm. As someone whose wife is a Doctor that observation is certainly not true for NHS doctors. My wife did not get on with her boss (a doctor who was later removed from position because of the way she treated her staff). My wife (like all doctors) was dependent upon references to get another NHS job from her boss which obviously wasn't going to happen and in her speciality there were limited positions. Her only choice was to leave the NHS which she did and take on a different medical role as there is also no private work in her speciality. I appreciate this is not the norm, but I think you have a rather tinted glasses view on this. She also worked extremely hard and often not under ideal conditions compared to outside of the NHS. She moved to the private sector with better conditions and more money, although still worked very long hours.
Kemi may yet have the last laugh over Reform and their data.
Forget the accuracy of the numbers as Reform have been perhaps a little "too eager" to evidence and prove that is pretty accurate.
The BIGGER and potentially MASSIVE problem for Reform and a saver for Kemi is that it would appear that anyone from anywhere in the World can register as a Member and more impactful, that anyone of any age can created an email address and join with no validation of where they are from, who they are, how old they are or even IF they exist.
Now a £10 a pop ....with Billioniares / Multi Millionaires FUNDING them, it's a very very convenient back door and efficient way of data farming to created "alleged" mass Membership.
It needs investigating for sure!
Potential GOLD-DUST for Kemi and Labour!
Reform’s whole MO is to swamp social media and give the impression of an unstoppable bandwagon.
It’s about funding bots, useful idiots and fake members. After all to do so is just recycling money. I still feel they have a ceiling.
They do have a ceiling. All parties do. But the likes of Trump, Orban, Erdogan and Le Pen all poll way beyond the 30% that might be enough to win in a FPTP system with 5-6 significant parties, unless Britain is somehow different (which is arguable for Hungary and Turkey but not so much for the US and France (and there are other, closer examples that could be cited too).
And Corbyn proved that populist parties can generate very large memberships even when not particularly popular overall. Membership isn't a function of general popularity but of relatively intense support. One problem the Tories have had for a while, since political party membership stopped being a fairly normal social thing, is that very few people are strongly attached to them - and often those that are are not the sort of people who are very helpful to a party. That can be an issue for other parties too but the Tories lack a 'mission' almost as a point of identity (rightly, IMO - the Conservative Party at its best is simply about governing well: what works, what delivers, is what is right).
But Reform does have a mission, or at least claims to and appears to, to those who want it to and those only half-listening. That will draw members, activists and support. Quite probably pretty fractious, inefficient and wasteful activists but they'll be seen and heard and sometimes that's more than half the battle.
The UK is like other countries in some ways and not like them in other ways. We are like the US in using FPTP, but we are (now) like Germany, Italy etc. in having >2 party politics. That combination of multiparty politics and FPTP is probably not stable for long, but it's where we are now and it may make us overall not like any other country.
Trump and Erdoğan won through entryism. They took over existing big parties in an approx. 2 party system. Farage hasn't done that.
Farage is more on an Orbán-like trajectory. Fidesz was a small party for many years in a multiparty system, before he broke through in 1998 to win most seats (although actually second on votes), becoming PM on 29% of the vote. He went on to higher vote shares and polling later. That was all under PR and Hungary is, as you note, a different sort of country, post-Communist.
France is unique in its own way: an ordinal, but not that proportional system; traditionally a 2-party system, but that broke down in 2017; a semi-presidential system. France might be a model, but we don't have that presidential component. The National Rally has taken a long time to get where they are now, and is Farage meant to be Jean-Marie or Marine Le Pen (or both!)? Also, I note Marine Le Pen hasn't won yet! The National Rally did well in the legislative election, but that still only meant coming third. She is leading in polling for the next Presidential election, but the second round polling is very close. She's not a shoo-in.
So, I think Farage and Reform UK might do very well at the next UK general election... and they might not. I absolutely think the Conservatives and Labour need to take Reform seriously and campaign against them, but a number of posters here have jumped from "possible" to "inevitable".
Best odds for biggest party at the next UK general election are: Con 15/8, Lab 7/4, Ref 5/2, LD 77/1, Green 750/1. I think the value bets there are the LibDems, the Greens or just laying everyone in order to bet on an entirely new party. I don't think 5/2 for Reform UK is a value bet.
Cheers. Good reply - although I'd point to Canada as an example of a multi-party FPTP (and notoriously volatile) system.
Yes, Farage certainly shouldn't be selecting the curtains for Downing St just yet but he should be being treated as a genuine contender by media and opponents alike.
I agree that other examples will break down as parallels somewhere along the line but there are enough which are close enough to learn some lessons, both for predictive purposes and for those who are activists (whether for or against), as to what tends to work and what doesn't.
OT we mentioned the Rory Campbell failed betting syndicate story. It has been suggested that the Mail was wrong to imply that investors were rich mugs fleeced of their life savings, and they were mainly sophisticated players in the betting world who understood the risks. But however it plays out, its ripples might prove unwelcome if it strengthens the case for restrictions.
It has given us the joy of Ali Campbell reassuring investors that all was well. About 45 minutes before The End.
Along with Charlie Falconer.
The claim that Campbell senior lost a pile of money is the cherry on top…
Probably only amounts to about three months of his podcast earnings :-)
That's the point, second division is not by a long shot the highest level.
He never played in the top flight, never played in the European Cup/Champions League, never played for his country.
His career as a player was completely different to Rooney's, as was his career as a Manager.
Second tier is high level, even if not the highest. Championship footballers are taking home seven figures. If you'd said he was a management consultant, you'd have a point, and one that would compare with "normal" industries and indeed politics.
OT we mentioned the Rory Campbell failed betting syndicate story. It has been suggested that the Mail was wrong to imply that investors were rich mugs fleeced of their life savings, and they were mainly sophisticated players in the betting world who understood the risks. But however it plays out, its ripples might prove unwelcome if it strengthens the case for restrictions.
It has given us the joy of Ali Campbell reassuring investors that all was well. About 45 minutes before The End.
Along with Charlie Falconer.
The claim that Campbell senior lost a pile of money is the cherry on top…
Probably only amounts to about three months of his podcast earnings :-)
Does anyone know much about Jiffy Corn Muffins from the USA? A Yankee Doodle friend was saying that these were one of a small list of things he always brings back, because he misses them so.
Having obtained a packet, they seem like a traditional basic sponge cake that I might have with jam or make into butterfly buns. I'd expect to find them featured in Charlie Brown.
Do any of our correspondents from across the pond know anything?
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
As far as I know Dyson who owns £550 million of previously tax exempt assets and who is outraged he should now have to pay a very favourable rate on them, has not done a single day's work mucking out cows.
While a bit of a cheap shot, have you considered taking up medicine yourself? There are plenty of vacancies.
Without giving away too much I have worked alongside the medical profession all my life. Most (like all professions) are decent people but they have a level of entitlement that is extraordinary. The BMA sucks the lifeblood out of the NHS and the UK media and political class touches the forelock to them on a daily basis. No-one ever points out on the BBC that doctors wage increases are paid at the expense of other "more lowly" clinical professionals. Doctors will bleat that they have to take a long time to get qualified, well bully for them. They are the greedy fat cats of the public sector. The BMA needs to be careful that one day that when the fawning of the media becomes more questioning the public might start to realise that doctors are no more virtuous than many other professionals and a lot more greedy.
As for Dyson, he could be dealt with very differently to family farms, and pointing to hyperbolic examples does not make a good reason for bullying those who have family farming businesses and other types of family businesses. It was just pure Labour spite, with lies and exaggerations thrown in to justify it.
£550 million isn't a hyperbolic example. It is a prime example of an asset being used purely for tax avoidance. Land prices reflect the value of that tax avoidance. The return created by actual farming no way supports those prices.
If you are a "family farming business" owning your land you might be very happy to offload it at inflated prices to tax avoiders, even if you don't admit that's the real reason why you're angry with Rachel Reeves. But that's no reason for the rest of us go along with it. It is remarkable that the Conservatives have picked this hill to die on.
Duh, if you sold it to Dyson, or anyone else you would pay capital gains unless you rolled it over into another business. And yes Dyson is a hyperbolic example. I completely agree that Dyson should not benefit. If this had been about tackling Dyson and his ilk it would have been easy to frame that. It is not, it is simple Labour spite. Sorry it is too complex for you to understand, but I suppose causing a few old rural folk to top themselves because there has been no transitional time and force families to sell up is not your problem. And here was me thinking you were someone who believed in fairness. Clearly you do not.
If the idea was to prevent tax avoidance on inheritance tax, then the way to avoid penalising "real" farmers would be to target the extraction of the money.
It's not much of a tax dodge if your money is stuck in a relatively unproductive asset*.
So create an inheritance tax charge on the farm - payable when *sold*. For sanity and fairness, make it once only. So when the inheritor dies, there is still only one charge owing.
So if you farm for 20 generations, no tax. But if you sell the farm, tax time.
*I do wonder about solar farming. If you combine that with sheep grazing under the panels - which works well - do you still have an agricultural property?
It worth looking at how unused pensions are going to be treated.
1) income tax is extracted as the money is shifted from the pension fund into real cash. 2) the cash is then subject to inheritance tax.
(yes I know it may be the other way round but the logic still applies).
That would be the best fix for farm land
1) An inheritance tax charge that isn't applied at the time of transfer 2) Capital gains tax when sold at which point the inheritance tax change is taken.
And that would still give a tax advantage as the capital gains would only be on the difference between the value at the time of inheritance and the time of sale.
Downside is that it doesn't raise money today so it's the correct fix for farmers but doesn't generate tax immediately.
Kemi Badenoch will be in trouble after the May locals if Reform pip her and outperform expectations, and probably in terminal trouble after the May 2026 round.
At the moment, that's what I expect to happen.
I think there is zero chance that Reform end up with more seats than the Tories but 100% chance that Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories.
My current best guess, looking at the relative shares in 2021to now, and current trends, is:
Con lose 600 to 1745 Lab stand still at 1345 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 400 to 402
All the smaller parties gain at the expense of Con and Lab. Anti-incumbency. If this should happen, will Badenoch be in trouble or will there be relief within the Tories that it's not worse?
I expect that Labour will be down, too. There's still ground for them to lose in Durham, Lancashire, and the Midlands.
On reflection I think you are right.
In May 2021, Labour nationally was on 35%, now 27%, down 8% points. Con was on 42%, now 26%, down 16% points.
My revised guess is:
Con lose 700 to 1645 Lab lose 300 to 1045 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 800 to 802
My conclusions remain the same. Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories but not hold as many seats in total. Starmer's position may take a greater hit than Badenoch's.
Are there any betting markets yet on the next locals?
OT we mentioned the Rory Campbell failed betting syndicate story. It has been suggested that the Mail was wrong to imply that investors were rich mugs fleeced of their life savings, and they were mainly sophisticated players in the betting world who understood the risks. But however it plays out, its ripples might prove unwelcome if it strengthens the case for restrictions.
It has given us the joy of Ali Campbell reassuring investors that all was well. About 45 minutes before The End.
Along with Charlie Falconer.
The claim that Campbell senior lost a pile of money is the cherry on top…
I wouldn't wish an idiot son on almost anyone. But I'll stretch for Campbell.
F1: maybe bookies should have a market on how many races it will take Alonso to score points equal to Stroll's season total. In 2024 it was 4, in 2023 it was 5.
That's the point, second division is not by a long shot the highest level.
He never played in the top flight, never played in the European Cup/Champions League, never played for his country.
His career as a player was completely different to Rooney's, as was his career as a Manager.
Second tier is high level, even if not the highest. Championship footballers are taking home seven figures. If you'd said he was a management consultant, you'd have a point, and one that would compare with "normal" industries and indeed politics.
The point is that playing and managing have different demands and that the highest level of managers and the highest level of playing don't typically overlap, despite the fact the highest level of players getting plenty of opportunities to manage.
As for "normal" I don't think anyone said that football is "normal" but I'm curious just how "normal" management consultants are either. Most people I know in managerial positions have a background of working in their industry and are not "consultants" going from industry to industry.
Does anyone know much about Jiffy Corn Muffins from the USA? A Yankee Doodle friend was saying that these were one of a small list of things he always brings back, because he misses them so.
Having obtained a packet, they seem like a traditional basic sponge cake that I might have with jam or make into butterfly buns. I'd expect to find them featured in Charlie Brown.
Do any of our correspondents from across the pond know anything?
I think americans use them as a savoury side dish. The sugar level is just the standard American savoury food sugar level...
The honours list just gets me so annoyed. It is so random and rewards so many for just doing their job. The differentiation between awards based upon status also annoys me eg a captain of industry gets a knighthood, whereas the dinner lady gets an MBE.
I remember two agents doing the same job for years at elections. One was a volunteer and the other paid. The paid one got at OBE, the unpaid one nothing. Madness.
The only awards should be for gallantry and voluntary service. Just those. And the level of award should be commensurate with your bravery or service and not their social standing.
The only ones worth noting this time around are for 4 of the subpostmasters who have been campaigning to right this injustice.
Even with those it is tinged with the belief that this is state palming them off with baubles instead of giving them proper timely compensation.
Anne Reid, the actress, should have got more than a CBE. One of our finest actresses.
And lucky enough to have ended up on the cutting room floor of Love Actually.
Anne Reid Timothy Spall Penelope Wilton David Bradley
The honours list just gets me so annoyed. It is so random and rewards so many for just doing their job. The differentiation between awards based upon status also annoys me eg a captain of industry gets a knighthood, whereas the dinner lady gets an MBE.
I remember two agents doing the same job for years at elections. One was a volunteer and the other paid. The paid one got at OBE, the unpaid one nothing. Madness.
The only awards should be for gallantry and voluntary service. Just those. And the level of award should be commensurate with your bravery or service and not their social standing.
I’d make an exception for the actors and other artists: Sir or Dame will help them sell their services and we could use the tax revenue…
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
About half of all doctors are GPs and GP practices are largely small businesses run by the GP/GPs, so I think plenty of doctors are familiar with running a business.
Hmm. Something is going on, although I have no details. My medical mole whispered that most GPs are no longer partners but employees, and a lot of GP practices are being bought out and consolidated. Private equity?
Yes, and considerably fewer than half of Doctors are GPs, the expansion in recent years being in hospital specialities, and often in unregulated "Trust grade" posts. These vary from fellowships that lead to Consultant posts to starter jobs for new migrants, usually on short annual contracts.
GPs increasingly are salaried staff with a few partners, and increasingly in large practices owned by private finance. There are only about 5000 practices now in the country. Partly this is because the partnership model is not the goldmine that it was with lots of autonomy, and partly that the regulatory and compliance criteria are increasingly onerous.
When I started my career 35 years ago General Practice was very competitive to join, with a strong training and mentorship culture, but that's history.
Does anyone know much about Jiffy Corn Muffins from the USA? A Yankee Doodle friend was saying that these were one of a small list of things he always brings back, because he misses them so.
Having obtained a packet, they seem like a traditional basic sponge cake that I might have with jam or make into butterfly buns. I'd expect to find them featured in Charlie Brown.
Do any of our correspondents from across the pond know anything?
I think americans use them as a savoury side dish. The sugar level is just the standard American savoury food sugar level...
Having grown up on fried drop scones (mildly sweet) for Sunday breakfast with bacon, egg etc. I had a look out of curiosity after the recent discussion of hydrolysed disaccharides on here. Jiffy say 15g of 'sugar' - presumably straight sucrose this time, but it's called 'sweet cornbread' and 15g in 78g of mix seems a lot for British tastes if it is to be a "staple for any pantry, as it compliments any barbecue or chili dish".
Kemi Badenoch will be in trouble after the May locals if Reform pip her and outperform expectations, and probably in terminal trouble after the May 2026 round.
At the moment, that's what I expect to happen.
I think there is zero chance that Reform end up with more seats than the Tories but 100% chance that Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories.
My current best guess, looking at the relative shares in 2021to now, and current trends, is:
Con lose 600 to 1745 Lab stand still at 1345 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 400 to 402
All the smaller parties gain at the expense of Con and Lab. Anti-incumbency. If this should happen, will Badenoch be in trouble or will there be relief within the Tories that it's not worse?
I expect that Labour will be down, too. There's still ground for them to lose in Durham, Lancashire, and the Midlands.
On reflection I think you are right.
In May 2021, Labour nationally was on 35%, now 27%, down 8% points. Con was on 42%, now 26%, down 16% points.
My revised guess is:
Con lose 700 to 1645 Lab lose 300 to 1045 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 800 to 802
My conclusions remain the same. Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories but not hold as many seats in total. Starmer's position may take a greater hit than Badenoch's.
Are there any betting markets yet on the next locals?
2021 was pretty close to the peak for the Tories, with the vaccine rollout going much better than Europe and before partygate etc
No matter how well Badenoch does, this is going to be an awful night for comparisons.
Con could easily lose 1000 while still having the most Councillors. I wouldn't bet against that.
Kemi Badenoch will be in trouble after the May locals if Reform pip her and outperform expectations, and probably in terminal trouble after the May 2026 round.
At the moment, that's what I expect to happen.
I think there is zero chance that Reform end up with more seats than the Tories but 100% chance that Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories.
My current best guess, looking at the relative shares in 2021to now, and current trends, is:
Con lose 600 to 1745 Lab stand still at 1345 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 400 to 402
All the smaller parties gain at the expense of Con and Lab. Anti-incumbency. If this should happen, will Badenoch be in trouble or will there be relief within the Tories that it's not worse?
I expect that Labour will be down, too. There's still ground for them to lose in Durham, Lancashire, and the Midlands.
On reflection I think you are right.
In May 2021, Labour nationally was on 35%, now 27%, down 8% points. Con was on 42%, now 26%, down 16% points.
My revised guess is:
Con lose 700 to 1645 Lab lose 300 to 1045 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 800 to 802
My conclusions remain the same. Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories but not hold as many seats in total. Starmer's position may take a greater hit than Badenoch's.
Are there any betting markets yet on the next locals?
Don't we need to know how many seats will be up for election first?
I expect there will be nothing like 800 Reform gains, though Independents may have a good year.
In Asda this morning. One of the women stacking shelves was a dead ringer facially for Rachel Reeves. I told her this, she said "Who is tha, never heard of her". So much for the public interest in politics or even the news
A timely reminder to us PBers that most people are what americans call "low information voters".
Kemi may yet have the last laugh over Reform and their data.
Forget the accuracy of the numbers as Reform have been perhaps a little "too eager" to evidence and prove that is pretty accurate.
The BIGGER and potentially MASSIVE problem for Reform and a saver for Kemi is that it would appear that anyone from anywhere in the World can register as a Member and more impactful, that anyone of any age can created an email address and join with no validation of where they are from, who they are, how old they are or even IF they exist.
Now a £10 a pop ....with Billioniares / Multi Millionaires FUNDING them, it's a very very convenient back door and efficient way of data farming to created "alleged" mass Membership.
It needs investigating for sure!
Potential GOLD-DUST for Kemi and Labour!
Reform’s whole MO is to swamp social media and give the impression of an unstoppable bandwagon.
It’s about funding bots, useful idiots and fake members. After all to do so is just recycling money. I still feel they have a ceiling.
They do have a ceiling. All parties do. But the likes of Trump, Orban, Erdogan and Le Pen all poll way beyond the 30% that might be enough to win in a FPTP system with 5-6 significant parties, unless Britain is somehow different (which is arguable for Hungary and Turkey but not so much for the US and France (and there are other, closer examples that could be cited too).
And Corbyn proved that populist parties can generate very large memberships even when not particularly popular overall. Membership isn't a function of general popularity but of relatively intense support. One problem the Tories have had for a while, since political party membership stopped being a fairly normal social thing, is that very few people are strongly attached to them - and often those that are are not the sort of people who are very helpful to a party. That can be an issue for other parties too but the Tories lack a 'mission' almost as a point of identity (rightly, IMO - the Conservative Party at its best is simply about governing well: what works, what delivers, is what is right).
But Reform does have a mission, or at least claims to and appears to, to those who want it to and those only half-listening. That will draw members, activists and support. Quite probably pretty fractious, inefficient and wasteful activists but they'll be seen and heard and sometimes that's more than half the battle.
That's a fine analysis. The Conservatives have destroyed their "governing well" USP for at least this Parliament, I think.
Can they regain it; might another change of leader help - or would it just be seen as desperation ?
Changing leader before the next GE would be too reminiscent of the year of three Prime Ministers. It would speak of chaos, confusion and uncertainty.
Badenoch isn't doing well, but there's a lot that other Tories could do to help her, which would be more beneficial than plotting.
Kemi Badenoch will be in trouble after the May locals if Reform pip her and outperform expectations, and probably in terminal trouble after the May 2026 round.
At the moment, that's what I expect to happen.
I think there is zero chance that Reform end up with more seats than the Tories but 100% chance that Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories.
My current best guess, looking at the relative shares in 2021to now, and current trends, is:
Con lose 600 to 1745 Lab stand still at 1345 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 400 to 402
All the smaller parties gain at the expense of Con and Lab. Anti-incumbency. If this should happen, will Badenoch be in trouble or will there be relief within the Tories that it's not worse?
I expect that Labour will be down, too. There's still ground for them to lose in Durham, Lancashire, and the Midlands.
On reflection I think you are right.
In May 2021, Labour nationally was on 35%, now 27%, down 8% points. Con was on 42%, now 26%, down 16% points.
My revised guess is:
Con lose 700 to 1645 Lab lose 300 to 1045 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 800 to 802
My conclusions remain the same. Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories but not hold as many seats in total. Starmer's position may take a greater hit than Badenoch's.
Are there any betting markets yet on the next locals?
Those numbers are all *way* too high. The 2025 round will be much smaller than 2021, partly because 2021 had 2020 rolled into it because of Covid, and partly because of local govt structural reform proposals, combining county and district authorities, which may mean that some of the relatively small number that were slated for this year won't now happen.
Does anyone know much about Jiffy Corn Muffins from the USA? A Yankee Doodle friend was saying that these were one of a small list of things he always brings back, because he misses them so.
Having obtained a packet, they seem like a traditional basic sponge cake that I might have with jam or make into butterfly buns. I'd expect to find them featured in Charlie Brown.
Do any of our correspondents from across the pond know anything?
I think americans use them as a savoury side dish. The sugar level is just the standard American savoury food sugar level...
Having grown up on fried drop scones (mildly sweet) for Sunday breakfast with bacon, egg etc. I had a look out of curiosity after the recent discussion of hydrolysed disaccharides on here. Jiffy say 15g of 'sugar' - presumably straight sucrose this time, but it's called 'sweet cornbread' and 15g in 78g of mix seems a lot for British tastes if it is to be a "staple for any pantry, as it compliments any barbecue or chili dish".
I quite like cornbread (corn in the US sense means maize) and it is often served as a savoury side dish, particularly with what Americans call gravy, which is usually a white sauce with bacon added.
I am looking forward to the guilty pleasure of a Crackerbarrel chicken fried steak with cornbread when I go to the USA for a research meeting in the Spring. Once in a blue moon is often enough, but it is a reminder of my youth in Atlanta.
Kemi Badenoch will be in trouble after the May locals if Reform pip her and outperform expectations, and probably in terminal trouble after the May 2026 round.
At the moment, that's what I expect to happen.
I think there is zero chance that Reform end up with more seats than the Tories but 100% chance that Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories.
My current best guess, looking at the relative shares in May 2021to now, and current trends, is:
Con lose 600 to 1745 Lab stand still at 1345 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 400 to 402
All the smaller parties gain at the expense of Con and Lab. Anti-incumbency. If this should happen, will Badenoch be in trouble or will there be relief within the Tories that it's not worse?
I expect that Labour will be down, too. There's still ground for them to lose in Durham, Lancashire, and the Midlands.
On reflection I think you are right.
In May 2021, Labour nationally was on 35%, now 27%, down 8% points. Con was on 42%, now 26%, down 16% points.
My revised guess is:
Con lose 700 to 1645 Lab lose 300 to 1045 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 800 to 802
My conclusions remain the same. Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories but not hold as many seats in total. Starmer's position may take a greater hit than Badenoch's.
Are there any betting markets yet on the next locals?
2021 was pretty close to the peak for the Tories, with the vaccine rollout going much better than Europe and before partygate etc
No matter how well Badenoch does, this is going to be an awful night for comparisons.
Con could easily lose 1000 while still having the most Councillors. I wouldn't bet against that.
If you calculate seats in proportion to national share in May 2021 and now, then:
Con seats =2345x26/42 = 1452 a loss of about 900 Lab seats = 1345x27/35 = 1038 a loss of about 300
So I'll revise my Con loss to 900 and Reform gain to 1000
Con lose 900 to 1445 Lab lose 300 to 1045 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 1000 to 1002
Kemi Badenoch will be in trouble after the May locals if Reform pip her and outperform expectations, and probably in terminal trouble after the May 2026 round.
At the moment, that's what I expect to happen.
I think there is zero chance that Reform end up with more seats than the Tories but 100% chance that Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories.
My current best guess, looking at the relative shares in 2021to now, and current trends, is:
Con lose 600 to 1745 Lab stand still at 1345 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 400 to 402
All the smaller parties gain at the expense of Con and Lab. Anti-incumbency. If this should happen, will Badenoch be in trouble or will there be relief within the Tories that it's not worse?
I expect that Labour will be down, too. There's still ground for them to lose in Durham, Lancashire, and the Midlands.
On reflection I think you are right.
In May 2021, Labour nationally was on 35%, now 27%, down 8% points. Con was on 42%, now 26%, down 16% points.
My revised guess is:
Con lose 700 to 1645 Lab lose 300 to 1045 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 800 to 802
My conclusions remain the same. Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories but not hold as many seats in total. Starmer's position may take a greater hit than Badenoch's.
Are there any betting markets yet on the next locals?
Looking at the East Midlands (now defined as Notts and Derbys ), and beyond, I'd say LDs may have more upside available in the S, and Reform in the Coasts/Mids/North. The Tories could imo get a heavier squeeze, and lose some counties hard, whilst others become much more marginal - as happened to Labour in the GE trends this year in some seats.
Locally, if Zadrozny's trial happens and the results come out before the Election, it will be *very* interesting for the Ashfield Independents (11 seats on Notts CC, which is the Con / Lab balance of power, but more downside on traditional Lab) - I'm not sure what happens if his trial result comes out after candidate declarations but before the Election. I can see several AIs going "local independent", or flips to Reform (whose Councillors will be newbies, I think).
AIs are going big on "we want to control our local roads", which I interpret as preparing a pitch for the Council if Notts is split into 3 or 4 250k unitaries. They'll rebrand as Ashfield and Mansfield Independents, and try and introduce Passports to Parish Pump, North Notts.
I'd asy Nimby politics and Planning, and the Labour klutz-ridden comms strategy, may make a difference. I'm not sure how that will play around places like Leicester or Peterborough or Lincoln or Norwich, where there is no Green Belt. I expect Reform will shout about it, and hope their potential voters get a red mist and do not notice.
I think Tories could take a further hammering in PCCs and Mayors - but I'm not totally clear what is up for Election in those spheres this time.
Kemi Badenoch will be in trouble after the May locals if Reform pip her and outperform expectations, and probably in terminal trouble after the May 2026 round.
At the moment, that's what I expect to happen.
I think there is zero chance that Reform end up with more seats than the Tories but 100% chance that Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories.
My current best guess, looking at the relative shares in 2021to now, and current trends, is:
Con lose 600 to 1745 Lab stand still at 1345 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 400 to 402
All the smaller parties gain at the expense of Con and Lab. Anti-incumbency. If this should happen, will Badenoch be in trouble or will there be relief within the Tories that it's not worse?
I expect that Labour will be down, too. There's still ground for them to lose in Durham, Lancashire, and the Midlands.
On reflection I think you are right.
In May 2021, Labour nationally was on 35%, now 27%, down 8% points. Con was on 42%, now 26%, down 16% points.
My revised guess is:
Con lose 700 to 1645 Lab lose 300 to 1045 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 800 to 802
My conclusions remain the same. Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories but not hold as many seats in total. Starmer's position may take a greater hit than Badenoch's.
Are there any betting markets yet on the next locals?
Don't we need to know how many seats will be up for election first?
I expect there will be nothing like 800 Reform gains, though Independents may have a good year.
I'm assuming the same number of seats as in May 2021 as my base case.
I suspect that the limit on the number of Reform gains will be number of willing Reform candidates. No doubt Nigel will ask me again.
Kemi Badenoch will be in trouble after the May locals if Reform pip her and outperform expectations, and probably in terminal trouble after the May 2026 round.
At the moment, that's what I expect to happen.
I think there is zero chance that Reform end up with more seats than the Tories but 100% chance that Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories.
My current best guess, looking at the relative shares in May 2021to now, and current trends, is:
Con lose 600 to 1745 Lab stand still at 1345 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 400 to 402
All the smaller parties gain at the expense of Con and Lab. Anti-incumbency. If this should happen, will Badenoch be in trouble or will there be relief within the Tories that it's not worse?
I expect that Labour will be down, too. There's still ground for them to lose in Durham, Lancashire, and the Midlands.
On reflection I think you are right.
In May 2021, Labour nationally was on 35%, now 27%, down 8% points. Con was on 42%, now 26%, down 16% points.
My revised guess is:
Con lose 700 to 1645 Lab lose 300 to 1045 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 800 to 802
My conclusions remain the same. Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories but not hold as many seats in total. Starmer's position may take a greater hit than Badenoch's.
Are there any betting markets yet on the next locals?
2021 was pretty close to the peak for the Tories, with the vaccine rollout going much better than Europe and before partygate etc
No matter how well Badenoch does, this is going to be an awful night for comparisons.
Con could easily lose 1000 while still having the most Councillors. I wouldn't bet against that.
If you calculate seats in proportion to national share in May 2021 and now, then:
Con seats =2345x26/42 = 1452 a loss of about 900 Lab seats = 1345x27/35 = 1038 a loss of about 300
So I'll revise my Con loss to 900 and Reform gain to 1000
Con lose 900 to 1445 Lab lose 300 to 1045 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 1000 to 1002
Getting closer!
I definitely wouldn't give such a high proportion of gains to Reform, I'd split it much more evenly with LDs/others.
Also Lab should gain some from the Cons which will net off against their losses elsewhere.
Its chased by a bear syndrome, the Tories have fallen so much further than the other parties that the other parties should be gaining some seats from the Tories seats even if they're not doing well themselves elsewhere.
Kemi Badenoch will be in trouble after the May locals if Reform pip her and outperform expectations, and probably in terminal trouble after the May 2026 round.
At the moment, that's what I expect to happen.
I think there is zero chance that Reform end up with more seats than the Tories but 100% chance that Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories.
My current best guess, looking at the relative shares in 2021to now, and current trends, is:
Con lose 600 to 1745 Lab stand still at 1345 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 400 to 402
All the smaller parties gain at the expense of Con and Lab. Anti-incumbency. If this should happen, will Badenoch be in trouble or will there be relief within the Tories that it's not worse?
I expect that Labour will be down, too. There's still ground for them to lose in Durham, Lancashire, and the Midlands.
On reflection I think you are right.
In May 2021, Labour nationally was on 35%, now 27%, down 8% points. Con was on 42%, now 26%, down 16% points.
My revised guess is:
Con lose 700 to 1645 Lab lose 300 to 1045 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 800 to 802
My conclusions remain the same. Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories but not hold as many seats in total. Starmer's position may take a greater hit than Badenoch's.
Are there any betting markets yet on the next locals?
Those numbers are all *way* too high. The 2025 round will be much smaller than 2021, partly because 2021 had 2020 rolled into it because of Covid, and partly because of local govt structural reform proposals, combining county and district authorities, which may mean that some of the relatively small number that were slated for this year won't now happen.
Kemi may yet have the last laugh over Reform and their data.
Forget the accuracy of the numbers as Reform have been perhaps a little "too eager" to evidence and prove that is pretty accurate.
The BIGGER and potentially MASSIVE problem for Reform and a saver for Kemi is that it would appear that anyone from anywhere in the World can register as a Member and more impactful, that anyone of any age can created an email address and join with no validation of where they are from, who they are, how old they are or even IF they exist.
Now a £10 a pop ....with Billioniares / Multi Millionaires FUNDING them, it's a very very convenient back door and efficient way of data farming to created "alleged" mass Membership.
It needs investigating for sure!
Potential GOLD-DUST for Kemi and Labour!
Reform’s whole MO is to swamp social media and give the impression of an unstoppable bandwagon.
It’s about funding bots, useful idiots and fake members. After all to do so is just recycling money. I still feel they have a ceiling.
They do have a ceiling. All parties do. But the likes of Trump, Orban, Erdogan and Le Pen all poll way beyond the 30% that might be enough to win in a FPTP system with 5-6 significant parties, unless Britain is somehow different (which is arguable for Hungary and Turkey but not so much for the US and France (and there are other, closer examples that could be cited too).
And Corbyn proved that populist parties can generate very large memberships even when not particularly popular overall. Membership isn't a function of general popularity but of relatively intense support. One problem the Tories have had for a while, since political party membership stopped being a fairly normal social thing, is that very few people are strongly attached to them - and often those that are are not the sort of people who are very helpful to a party. That can be an issue for other parties too but the Tories lack a 'mission' almost as a point of identity (rightly, IMO - the Conservative Party at its best is simply about governing well: what works, what delivers, is what is right).
But Reform does have a mission, or at least claims to and appears to, to those who want it to and those only half-listening. That will draw members, activists and support. Quite probably pretty fractious, inefficient and wasteful activists but they'll be seen and heard and sometimes that's more than half the battle.
The UK is like other countries in some ways and not like them in other ways. We are like the US in using FPTP, but we are (now) like Germany, Italy etc. in having >2 party politics. That combination of multiparty politics and FPTP is probably not stable for long, but it's where we are now and it may make us overall not like any other country.
Trump and Erdoğan won through entryism. They took over existing big parties in an approx. 2 party system. Farage hasn't done that.
Farage is more on an Orbán-like trajectory. Fidesz was a small party for many years in a multiparty system, before he broke through in 1998 to win most seats (although actually second on votes), becoming PM on 29% of the vote. He went on to higher vote shares and polling later. That was all under PR and Hungary is, as you note, a different sort of country, post-Communist.
France is unique in its own way: an ordinal, but not that proportional system; traditionally a 2-party system, but that broke down in 2017; a semi-presidential system. France might be a model, but we don't have that presidential component. The National Rally has taken a long time to get where they are now, and is Farage meant to be Jean-Marie or Marine Le Pen (or both!)? Also, I note Marine Le Pen hasn't won yet! The National Rally did well in the legislative election, but that still only meant coming third. She is leading in polling for the next Presidential election, but the second round polling is very close. She's not a shoo-in.
So, I think Farage and Reform UK might do very well at the next UK general election... and they might not. I absolutely think the Conservatives and Labour need to take Reform seriously and campaign against them, but a number of posters here have jumped from "possible" to "inevitable".
Best odds for biggest party at the next UK general election are: Con 15/8, Lab 7/4, Ref 5/2, LD 77/1, Green 750/1. I think the value bets there are the LibDems, the Greens or just laying everyone in order to bet on an entirely new party. I don't think 5/2 for Reform UK is a value bet.
In French terms, are you sure Nigel Farage is not more akin to President Macron, whose En Marche party was created less than a decade ago?
Macron is fascinating. He may be on the way out now, but he was enormously successful with an insurgent new party. His political views are clearly very different to Farage’s. Macron is a centrist, a LibDem. His career trajectory is also very different to Farage’s; he’s more like a David Owen.
Macron is: what if the SDP had been successful?
What does Macron tell us? He tells us that voters want change, but that change doesn’t have to come from the populist right.
There are dead towns like Horden across the country. It’s easy for those of us in leafier places to look at the broken economy and say “Brexit”. But too many of these places were dead before Brexit and are dead after Brexit. Brexit has failed, but isn’t the reason that towns like Horden are broken.
Reform - with a pile of cash, wall to wall Twitter support and an influx of angry and motivated activists - can do a serious amount of business in places like this. It is hopium and denialism to insist that Farage is too x or y for that to happen.
Kemi Badenoch will be in trouble after the May locals if Reform pip her and outperform expectations, and probably in terminal trouble after the May 2026 round.
At the moment, that's what I expect to happen.
I think there is zero chance that Reform end up with more seats than the Tories but 100% chance that Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories.
My current best guess, looking at the relative shares in 2021to now, and current trends, is:
Con lose 600 to 1745 Lab stand still at 1345 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 400 to 402
All the smaller parties gain at the expense of Con and Lab. Anti-incumbency. If this should happen, will Badenoch be in trouble or will there be relief within the Tories that it's not worse?
I expect that Labour will be down, too. There's still ground for them to lose in Durham, Lancashire, and the Midlands.
On reflection I think you are right.
In May 2021, Labour nationally was on 35%, now 27%, down 8% points. Con was on 42%, now 26%, down 16% points.
My revised guess is:
Con lose 700 to 1645 Lab lose 300 to 1045 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 800 to 802
My conclusions remain the same. Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories but not hold as many seats in total. Starmer's position may take a greater hit than Badenoch's.
Are there any betting markets yet on the next locals?
Those numbers are all *way* too high. The 2025 round will be much smaller than 2021, partly because 2021 had 2020 rolled into it because of Covid, and partly because of local govt structural reform proposals, combining county and district authorities, which may mean that some of the relatively small number that were slated for this year won't now happen.
And the bits of England having elections are mainly the bits where Labour aren't very relevant. Even in 2013, when EdM won 29-25 on projected national share (and UKIP got 22 on the same measure), the seat count was C1136 L538 LD342 UKIP147.
I'm not quite sure that those are the par scores for May (maybe take 100 off each of the red and blue piles and put them on the yellow), but they're probably not far off.
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
As far as I know Dyson who owns £550 million of previously tax exempt assets and who is outraged he should now have to pay a very favourable rate on them, has not done a single day's work mucking out cows.
While a bit of a cheap shot, have you considered taking up medicine yourself? There are plenty of vacancies.
Without giving away too much I have worked alongside the medical profession all my life. Most (like all professions) are decent people but they have a level of entitlement that is extraordinary. The BMA sucks the lifeblood out of the NHS and the UK media and political class touches the forelock to them on a daily basis. No-one ever points out on the BBC that doctors wage increases are paid at the expense of other "more lowly" clinical professionals. Doctors will bleat that they have to take a long time to get qualified, well bully for them. They are the greedy fat cats of the public sector. The BMA needs to be careful that one day that when the fawning of the media becomes more questioning the public might start to realise that doctors are no more virtuous than many other professionals and a lot more greedy.
As for Dyson, he could be dealt with very differently to family farms, and pointing to hyperbolic examples does not make a good reason for bullying those who have family farming businesses and other types of family businesses. It was just pure Labour spite, with lies and exaggerations thrown in to justify it.
£550 million isn't a hyperbolic example. It is a prime example of an asset being used purely for tax avoidance. Land prices reflect the value of that tax avoidance. The return created by actual farming no way supports those prices.
If you are a "family farming business" owning your land you might be very happy to offload it at inflated prices to tax avoiders, even if you don't admit that's the real reason why you're angry with Rachel Reeves. But that's no reason for the rest of us go along with it. It is remarkable that the Conservatives have picked this hill to die on.
Duh, if you sold it to Dyson, or anyone else you would pay capital gains unless you rolled it over into another business. And yes Dyson is a hyperbolic example. I completely agree that Dyson should not benefit. If this had been about tackling Dyson and his ilk it would have been easy to frame that. It is not, it is simple Labour spite. Sorry it is too complex for you to understand, but I suppose causing a few old rural folk to top themselves because there has been no transitional time and force families to sell up is not your problem. And here was me thinking you were someone who believed in fairness. Clearly you do not.
If the idea was to prevent tax avoidance on inheritance tax, then the way to avoid penalising "real" farmers would be to target the extraction of the money.
It's not much of a tax dodge if your money is stuck in a relatively unproductive asset*.
So create an inheritance tax charge on the farm - payable when *sold*. For sanity and fairness, make it once only. So when the inheritor dies, there is still only one charge owing.
So if you farm for 20 generations, no tax. But if you sell the farm, tax time.
*I do wonder about solar farming. If you combine that with sheep grazing under the panels - which works well - do you still have an agricultural property?
Why reward people based on what their ancestors did 400+ years ago (20 generations)? Why should the first generation hard-working farmer be penalised? What happened to equality of opportunity?
Kemi may yet have the last laugh over Reform and their data.
Forget the accuracy of the numbers as Reform have been perhaps a little "too eager" to evidence and prove that is pretty accurate.
The BIGGER and potentially MASSIVE problem for Reform and a saver for Kemi is that it would appear that anyone from anywhere in the World can register as a Member and more impactful, that anyone of any age can created an email address and join with no validation of where they are from, who they are, how old they are or even IF they exist.
Now a £10 a pop ....with Billioniares / Multi Millionaires FUNDING them, it's a very very convenient back door and efficient way of data farming to created "alleged" mass Membership.
It needs investigating for sure!
Potential GOLD-DUST for Kemi and Labour!
Reform’s whole MO is to swamp social media and give the impression of an unstoppable bandwagon.
It’s about funding bots, useful idiots and fake members. After all to do so is just recycling money. I still feel they have a ceiling.
They do have a ceiling. All parties do. But the likes of Trump, Orban, Erdogan and Le Pen all poll way beyond the 30% that might be enough to win in a FPTP system with 5-6 significant parties, unless Britain is somehow different (which is arguable for Hungary and Turkey but not so much for the US and France (and there are other, closer examples that could be cited too).
And Corbyn proved that populist parties can generate very large memberships even when not particularly popular overall. Membership isn't a function of general popularity but of relatively intense support. One problem the Tories have had for a while, since political party membership stopped being a fairly normal social thing, is that very few people are strongly attached to them - and often those that are are not the sort of people who are very helpful to a party. That can be an issue for other parties too but the Tories lack a 'mission' almost as a point of identity (rightly, IMO - the Conservative Party at its best is simply about governing well: what works, what delivers, is what is right).
But Reform does have a mission, or at least claims to and appears to, to those who want it to and those only half-listening. That will draw members, activists and support. Quite probably pretty fractious, inefficient and wasteful activists but they'll be seen and heard and sometimes that's more than half the battle.
The UK is like other countries in some ways and not like them in other ways. We are like the US in using FPTP, but we are (now) like Germany, Italy etc. in having >2 party politics. That combination of multiparty politics and FPTP is probably not stable for long, but it's where we are now and it may make us overall not like any other country.
Trump and Erdoğan won through entryism. They took over existing big parties in an approx. 2 party system. Farage hasn't done that.
Farage is more on an Orbán-like trajectory. Fidesz was a small party for many years in a multiparty system, before he broke through in 1998 to win most seats (although actually second on votes), becoming PM on 29% of the vote. He went on to higher vote shares and polling later. That was all under PR and Hungary is, as you note, a different sort of country, post-Communist.
France is unique in its own way: an ordinal, but not that proportional system; traditionally a 2-party system, but that broke down in 2017; a semi-presidential system. France might be a model, but we don't have that presidential component. The National Rally has taken a long time to get where they are now, and is Farage meant to be Jean-Marie or Marine Le Pen (or both!)? Also, I note Marine Le Pen hasn't won yet! The National Rally did well in the legislative election, but that still only meant coming third. She is leading in polling for the next Presidential election, but the second round polling is very close. She's not a shoo-in.
So, I think Farage and Reform UK might do very well at the next UK general election... and they might not. I absolutely think the Conservatives and Labour need to take Reform seriously and campaign against them, but a number of posters here have jumped from "possible" to "inevitable".
Best odds for biggest party at the next UK general election are: Con 15/8, Lab 7/4, Ref 5/2, LD 77/1, Green 750/1. I think the value bets there are the LibDems, the Greens or just laying everyone in order to bet on an entirely new party. I don't think 5/2 for Reform UK is a value bet.
Orban led the radical Liberal Party FIDESZ but then went on to merge that party with the Conservative MPP- it is from that merger that he was able to control the right.
Thanks for the correction. So Orban is like Trump and Erdogan. So, Farage needs a merger with the Tories to become PM?
Does anyone know much about Jiffy Corn Muffins from the USA? A Yankee Doodle friend was saying that these were one of a small list of things he always brings back, because he misses them so.
Having obtained a packet, they seem like a traditional basic sponge cake that I might have with jam or make into butterfly buns. I'd expect to find them featured in Charlie Brown.
Do any of our correspondents from across the pond know anything?
I think americans use them as a savoury side dish. The sugar level is just the standard American savoury food sugar level...
Having grown up on fried drop scones (mildly sweet) for Sunday breakfast with bacon, egg etc. I had a look out of curiosity after the recent discussion of hydrolysed disaccharides on here. Jiffy say 15g of 'sugar' - presumably straight sucrose this time, but it's called 'sweet cornbread' and 15g in 78g of mix seems a lot for British tastes if it is to be a "staple for any pantry, as it compliments any barbecue or chili dish".
I quite like cornbread (corn in the US sense means maize) and it is often served as a savoury side dish, particularly with what Americans call gravy, which is usually a white sauce with bacon added.
I am looking forward to the guilty pleasure of a Crackerbarrel chicken fried steak with cornbread when I go to the USA for a research meeting in the Spring. Once in a blue moon is often enough, but it is a reminder of my youth in Atlanta.
The sugar level is why I compared it to a basic sponge, not an English Muffin (the type that are already cut in 2 with 6 or 8 attachment points round the edge) or other sweet bread.
Completely off topic, but entertaining: Dave Barry’s 2024 year in review
"But what made 2024 truly special, in terms of sustained idiocy, was that it was an election year. This meant that day after day, month after month, the average American voter was subjected to a relentless gushing spew of campaign messaging created by political professionals who — no matter what side they’re on — all share one unshakable core belief: that the average American voter has the intellectual capacity of a potted fern. It was a brutal, depressing slog, and it felt as though it would never end. In fact, it may still be going on in California: a state that apparently tabulates its ballots on a defective Etch a Sketch." source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/12/30/dave-barry-2024-year-review/
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
It was 48% now it is 0%
Leave and Remain aren't a thing anymore, its over and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
There may be some who think its an idea to rejoin, but that's a completely different question and there's no credible movement for it and so there's no serious measurements on the support of that, or what it would mean with compromises that would have to be made.
You may wish it so, but it isn't.
Tories expect voters to bear electoral grudges like the cut to WFP but forget the fiasco of Brexit? Not likely!
Yes, you can just see the overriding passion to reverse Brexit in the
[checks notes]
...tanking of Labour's poll ratings and rise of the Farage Party?
Remember that that the fall in their ratings is a result of their own voters changing their mind. Your continued dislike of them hasn't contributed to it.
Perhaps part of the reason is because they won't entertain the idea of a closer relationship with Europe, even while Labour voters are very keen on the idea.
And going over to Reform to underline the point?? It's not Tory voters going over; their vote remains static.
The problem is the Tories have just had 14 years in Downing Street so it almost doesn't matter what Badenoch says/does right now, even if she says exactly the right thing the public wants to hear it is met with a thought of "well why didn't you do that in office then?"
Four years is a long-time to the next election though, so Badenoch needs to be seriously reflecting on what could be done better/differently and why the Tories should be back in Downing Street and what they would do. Not worrying about Twitter spats or soundbites.
Some reflection that perhaps Starmer should have done more of to be better prepared than he is today.
After 1997 the Tories had some seriously capable leaders in the likes of Hague and Michael Howard. It did not do them any good because the public mood was against them and the government well led. Kemi is no IDS but she is not in the class of the 2 I mentioned either.
Her chance, her only chance, is that Starmer continues to under perform and is not replaced by a panicking party. Her task is to be the person in position when that opportunity arises. I think that would be the case if she was another William Hague or another IDS. This is not really about her.
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
It was 48% now it is 0%
Leave and Remain aren't a thing anymore, its over and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
There may be some who think its an idea to rejoin, but that's a completely different question and there's no credible movement for it and so there's no serious measurements on the support of that, or what it would mean with compromises that would have to be made.
You may wish it so, but it isn't.
Tories expect voters to bear electoral grudges like the cut to WFP but forget the fiasco of Brexit? Not likely!
Yes, you can just see the overriding passion to reverse Brexit in the
[checks notes]
...tanking of Labour's poll ratings and rise of the Farage Party?
Remember that that the fall in their ratings is a result of their own voters changing their mind. Your continued dislike of them hasn't contributed to it.
Perhaps part of the reason is because they won't entertain the idea of a closer relationship with Europe, even while Labour voters are very keen on the idea.
And going over to Reform to underline the point?? It's not Tory voters going over; their vote remains static.
Kemi may yet have the last laugh over Reform and their data.
Forget the accuracy of the numbers as Reform have been perhaps a little "too eager" to evidence and prove that is pretty accurate.
The BIGGER and potentially MASSIVE problem for Reform and a saver for Kemi is that it would appear that anyone from anywhere in the World can register as a Member and more impactful, that anyone of any age can created an email address and join with no validation of where they are from, who they are, how old they are or even IF they exist.
Now a £10 a pop ....with Billioniares / Multi Millionaires FUNDING them, it's a very very convenient back door and efficient way of data farming to created "alleged" mass Membership.
It needs investigating for sure!
Potential GOLD-DUST for Kemi and Labour!
Reform’s whole MO is to swamp social media and give the impression of an unstoppable bandwagon.
It’s about funding bots, useful idiots and fake members. After all to do so is just recycling money. I still feel they have a ceiling.
They do have a ceiling. All parties do. But the likes of Trump, Orban, Erdogan and Le Pen all poll way beyond the 30% that might be enough to win in a FPTP system with 5-6 significant parties, unless Britain is somehow different (which is arguable for Hungary and Turkey but not so much for the US and France (and there are other, closer examples that could be cited too).
And Corbyn proved that populist parties can generate very large memberships even when not particularly popular overall. Membership isn't a function of general popularity but of relatively intense support. One problem the Tories have had for a while, since political party membership stopped being a fairly normal social thing, is that very few people are strongly attached to them - and often those that are are not the sort of people who are very helpful to a party. That can be an issue for other parties too but the Tories lack a 'mission' almost as a point of identity (rightly, IMO - the Conservative Party at its best is simply about governing well: what works, what delivers, is what is right).
But Reform does have a mission, or at least claims to and appears to, to those who want it to and those only half-listening. That will draw members, activists and support. Quite probably pretty fractious, inefficient and wasteful activists but they'll be seen and heard and sometimes that's more than half the battle.
The UK is like other countries in some ways and not like them in other ways. We are like the US in using FPTP, but we are (now) like Germany, Italy etc. in having >2 party politics. That combination of multiparty politics and FPTP is probably not stable for long, but it's where we are now and it may make us overall not like any other country.
Trump and Erdoğan won through entryism. They took over existing big parties in an approx. 2 party system. Farage hasn't done that.
Farage is more on an Orbán-like trajectory. Fidesz was a small party for many years in a multiparty system, before he broke through in 1998 to win most seats (although actually second on votes), becoming PM on 29% of the vote. He went on to higher vote shares and polling later. That was all under PR and Hungary is, as you note, a different sort of country, post-Communist.
France is unique in its own way: an ordinal, but not that proportional system; traditionally a 2-party system, but that broke down in 2017; a semi-presidential system. France might be a model, but we don't have that presidential component. The National Rally has taken a long time to get where they are now, and is Farage meant to be Jean-Marie or Marine Le Pen (or both!)? Also, I note Marine Le Pen hasn't won yet! The National Rally did well in the legislative election, but that still only meant coming third. She is leading in polling for the next Presidential election, but the second round polling is very close. She's not a shoo-in.
So, I think Farage and Reform UK might do very well at the next UK general election... and they might not. I absolutely think the Conservatives and Labour need to take Reform seriously and campaign against them, but a number of posters here have jumped from "possible" to "inevitable".
Best odds for biggest party at the next UK general election are: Con 15/8, Lab 7/4, Ref 5/2, LD 77/1, Green 750/1. I think the value bets there are the LibDems, the Greens or just laying everyone in order to bet on an entirely new party. I don't think 5/2 for Reform UK is a value bet.
Orban led the radical Liberal Party FIDESZ but then went on to merge that party with the Conservative MPP- it is from that merger that he was able to control the right.
Thanks for the correction. So Orban is like Trump and Erdogan. So, Farage needs a merger with the Tories to become PM?
I think that is his only route, but it would have to be a Coronation or MPs would favour their own over him.
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
As far as I know Dyson who owns £550 million of previously tax exempt assets and who is outraged he should now have to pay a very favourable rate on them, has not done a single day's work mucking out cows.
While a bit of a cheap shot, have you considered taking up medicine yourself? There are plenty of vacancies.
Without giving away too much I have worked alongside the medical profession all my life. Most (like all professions) are decent people but they have a level of entitlement that is extraordinary. The BMA sucks the lifeblood out of the NHS and the UK media and political class touches the forelock to them on a daily basis. No-one ever points out on the BBC that doctors wage increases are paid at the expense of other "more lowly" clinical professionals. Doctors will bleat that they have to take a long time to get qualified, well bully for them. They are the greedy fat cats of the public sector. The BMA needs to be careful that one day that when the fawning of the media becomes more questioning the public might start to realise that doctors are no more virtuous than many other professionals and a lot more greedy.
As for Dyson, he could be dealt with very differently to family farms, and pointing to hyperbolic examples does not make a good reason for bullying those who have family farming businesses and other types of family businesses. It was just pure Labour spite, with lies and exaggerations thrown in to justify it.
£550 million isn't a hyperbolic example. It is a prime example of an asset being used purely for tax avoidance. Land prices reflect the value of that tax avoidance. The return created by actual farming no way supports those prices.
If you are a "family farming business" owning your land you might be very happy to offload it at inflated prices to tax avoiders, even if you don't admit that's the real reason why you're angry with Rachel Reeves. But that's no reason for the rest of us go along with it. It is remarkable that the Conservatives have picked this hill to die on.
Duh, if you sold it to Dyson, or anyone else you would pay capital gains unless you rolled it over into another business. And yes Dyson is a hyperbolic example. I completely agree that Dyson should not benefit. If this had been about tackling Dyson and his ilk it would have been easy to frame that. It is not, it is simple Labour spite. Sorry it is too complex for you to understand, but I suppose causing a few old rural folk to top themselves because there has been no transitional time and force families to sell up is not your problem. And here was me thinking you were someone who believed in fairness. Clearly you do not.
If the idea was to prevent tax avoidance on inheritance tax, then the way to avoid penalising "real" farmers would be to target the extraction of the money.
It's not much of a tax dodge if your money is stuck in a relatively unproductive asset*.
So create an inheritance tax charge on the farm - payable when *sold*. For sanity and fairness, make it once only. So when the inheritor dies, there is still only one charge owing.
So if you farm for 20 generations, no tax. But if you sell the farm, tax time.
*I do wonder about solar farming. If you combine that with sheep grazing under the panels - which works well - do you still have an agricultural property?
Why reward people based on what their ancestors did 400+ years ago (20 generations)? Why should the first generation hard-working farmer be penalised? What happened to equality of opportunity?
Well, if you are happy to end family farming and replace it with Big Agriculture. Who will never pay any inheritance tax….
Kemi may yet have the last laugh over Reform and their data.
Forget the accuracy of the numbers as Reform have been perhaps a little "too eager" to evidence and prove that is pretty accurate.
The BIGGER and potentially MASSIVE problem for Reform and a saver for Kemi is that it would appear that anyone from anywhere in the World can register as a Member and more impactful, that anyone of any age can created an email address and join with no validation of where they are from, who they are, how old they are or even IF they exist.
Now a £10 a pop ....with Billioniares / Multi Millionaires FUNDING them, it's a very very convenient back door and efficient way of data farming to created "alleged" mass Membership.
It needs investigating for sure!
Potential GOLD-DUST for Kemi and Labour!
Reform’s whole MO is to swamp social media and give the impression of an unstoppable bandwagon.
It’s about funding bots, useful idiots and fake members. After all to do so is just recycling money. I still feel they have a ceiling.
They do have a ceiling. All parties do. But the likes of Trump, Orban, Erdogan and Le Pen all poll way beyond the 30% that might be enough to win in a FPTP system with 5-6 significant parties, unless Britain is somehow different (which is arguable for Hungary and Turkey but not so much for the US and France (and there are other, closer examples that could be cited too).
And Corbyn proved that populist parties can generate very large memberships even when not particularly popular overall. Membership isn't a function of general popularity but of relatively intense support. One problem the Tories have had for a while, since political party membership stopped being a fairly normal social thing, is that very few people are strongly attached to them - and often those that are are not the sort of people who are very helpful to a party. That can be an issue for other parties too but the Tories lack a 'mission' almost as a point of identity (rightly, IMO - the Conservative Party at its best is simply about governing well: what works, what delivers, is what is right).
But Reform does have a mission, or at least claims to and appears to, to those who want it to and those only half-listening. That will draw members, activists and support. Quite probably pretty fractious, inefficient and wasteful activists but they'll be seen and heard and sometimes that's more than half the battle.
The UK is like other countries in some ways and not like them in other ways. We are like the US in using FPTP, but we are (now) like Germany, Italy etc. in having >2 party politics. That combination of multiparty politics and FPTP is probably not stable for long, but it's where we are now and it may make us overall not like any other country.
Trump and Erdoğan won through entryism. They took over existing big parties in an approx. 2 party system. Farage hasn't done that.
Farage is more on an Orbán-like trajectory. Fidesz was a small party for many years in a multiparty system, before he broke through in 1998 to win most seats (although actually second on votes), becoming PM on 29% of the vote. He went on to higher vote shares and polling later. That was all under PR and Hungary is, as you note, a different sort of country, post-Communist.
France is unique in its own way: an ordinal, but not that proportional system; traditionally a 2-party system, but that broke down in 2017; a semi-presidential system. France might be a model, but we don't have that presidential component. The National Rally has taken a long time to get where they are now, and is Farage meant to be Jean-Marie or Marine Le Pen (or both!)? Also, I note Marine Le Pen hasn't won yet! The National Rally did well in the legislative election, but that still only meant coming third. She is leading in polling for the next Presidential election, but the second round polling is very close. She's not a shoo-in.
So, I think Farage and Reform UK might do very well at the next UK general election... and they might not. I absolutely think the Conservatives and Labour need to take Reform seriously and campaign against them, but a number of posters here have jumped from "possible" to "inevitable".
Best odds for biggest party at the next UK general election are: Con 15/8, Lab 7/4, Ref 5/2, LD 77/1, Green 750/1. I think the value bets there are the LibDems, the Greens or just laying everyone in order to bet on an entirely new party. I don't think 5/2 for Reform UK is a value bet.
In French terms, are you sure Nigel Farage is not more akin to President Macron, whose En Marche party was created less than a decade ago?
Macron is fascinating. He may be on the way out now, but he was enormously successful with an insurgent new party. His political views are clearly very different to Farage’s. Macron is a centrist, a LibDem. His career trajectory is also very different to Farage’s; he’s more like a David Owen.
Macron is: what if the SDP had been successful?
What does Macron tell us? He tells us that voters want change, but that change doesn’t have to come from the populist right.
The French voters said they wanted change, but when that change came, they put on yellow jackets and rioted.
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
It was 48% now it is 0%
Leave and Remain aren't a thing anymore, its over and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
There may be some who think its an idea to rejoin, but that's a completely different question and there's no credible movement for it and so there's no serious measurements on the support of that, or what it would mean with compromises that would have to be made.
You may wish it so, but it isn't.
Tories expect voters to bear electoral grudges like the cut to WFP but forget the fiasco of Brexit? Not likely!
Yes, you can just see the overriding passion to reverse Brexit in the
[checks notes]
...tanking of Labour's poll ratings and rise of the Farage Party?
Remember that that the fall in their ratings is a result of their own voters changing their mind. Your continued dislike of them hasn't contributed to it.
Perhaps part of the reason is because they won't entertain the idea of a closer relationship with Europe, even while Labour voters are very keen on the idea.
And going over to Reform to underline the point?? It's not Tory voters going over; their vote remains static.
And without knowing which voters where, the consequences of that churn are impossible to calculate. MRP tries to do that, but it only works if its assumptions are correctly calibrated.
In the meantime, the biggest single flow is Labour to Don't Know. That could either mean voters halfway to checking out, or Shy Socialists similar to the voters who saved Major in 1992.
Which theory is better? There's only one way to find out.
Kemi may yet have the last laugh over Reform and their data.
Forget the accuracy of the numbers as Reform have been perhaps a little "too eager" to evidence and prove that is pretty accurate.
The BIGGER and potentially MASSIVE problem for Reform and a saver for Kemi is that it would appear that anyone from anywhere in the World can register as a Member and more impactful, that anyone of any age can created an email address and join with no validation of where they are from, who they are, how old they are or even IF they exist.
Now a £10 a pop ....with Billioniares / Multi Millionaires FUNDING them, it's a very very convenient back door and efficient way of data farming to created "alleged" mass Membership.
It needs investigating for sure!
Potential GOLD-DUST for Kemi and Labour!
Reform’s whole MO is to swamp social media and give the impression of an unstoppable bandwagon.
It’s about funding bots, useful idiots and fake members. After all to do so is just recycling money. I still feel they have a ceiling.
They do have a ceiling. All parties do. But the likes of Trump, Orban, Erdogan and Le Pen all poll way beyond the 30% that might be enough to win in a FPTP system with 5-6 significant parties, unless Britain is somehow different (which is arguable for Hungary and Turkey but not so much for the US and France (and there are other, closer examples that could be cited too).
And Corbyn proved that populist parties can generate very large memberships even when not particularly popular overall. Membership isn't a function of general popularity but of relatively intense support. One problem the Tories have had for a while, since political party membership stopped being a fairly normal social thing, is that very few people are strongly attached to them - and often those that are are not the sort of people who are very helpful to a party. That can be an issue for other parties too but the Tories lack a 'mission' almost as a point of identity (rightly, IMO - the Conservative Party at its best is simply about governing well: what works, what delivers, is what is right).
But Reform does have a mission, or at least claims to and appears to, to those who want it to and those only half-listening. That will draw members, activists and support. Quite probably pretty fractious, inefficient and wasteful activists but they'll be seen and heard and sometimes that's more than half the battle.
The UK is like other countries in some ways and not like them in other ways. We are like the US in using FPTP, but we are (now) like Germany, Italy etc. in having >2 party politics. That combination of multiparty politics and FPTP is probably not stable for long, but it's where we are now and it may make us overall not like any other country.
Trump and Erdoğan won through entryism. They took over existing big parties in an approx. 2 party system. Farage hasn't done that.
Farage is more on an Orbán-like trajectory. Fidesz was a small party for many years in a multiparty system, before he broke through in 1998 to win most seats (although actually second on votes), becoming PM on 29% of the vote. He went on to higher vote shares and polling later. That was all under PR and Hungary is, as you note, a different sort of country, post-Communist.
France is unique in its own way: an ordinal, but not that proportional system; traditionally a 2-party system, but that broke down in 2017; a semi-presidential system. France might be a model, but we don't have that presidential component. The National Rally has taken a long time to get where they are now, and is Farage meant to be Jean-Marie or Marine Le Pen (or both!)? Also, I note Marine Le Pen hasn't won yet! The National Rally did well in the legislative election, but that still only meant coming third. She is leading in polling for the next Presidential election, but the second round polling is very close. She's not a shoo-in.
So, I think Farage and Reform UK might do very well at the next UK general election... and they might not. I absolutely think the Conservatives and Labour need to take Reform seriously and campaign against them, but a number of posters here have jumped from "possible" to "inevitable".
Best odds for biggest party at the next UK general election are: Con 15/8, Lab 7/4, Ref 5/2, LD 77/1, Green 750/1. I think the value bets there are the LibDems, the Greens or just laying everyone in order to bet on an entirely new party. I don't think 5/2 for Reform UK is a value bet.
Cheers. Good reply - although I'd point to Canada as an example of a multi-party FPTP (and notoriously volatile) system.
Yes, Farage certainly shouldn't be selecting the curtains for Downing St just yet but he should be being treated as a genuine contender by media and opponents alike.
I agree that other examples will break down as parallels somewhere along the line but there are enough which are close enough to learn some lessons, both for predictive purposes and for those who are activists (whether for or against), as to what tends to work and what doesn't.
Canada is, one could argue, a 2.5 party system with Quebec. That kinda works under FPTP. That paralleled the UK’s 2.5 party system with Scotland/NI that we had since 2015 and arguably since 1983. I would argue that 2024, with the rise of Reform UK and the Greens, sees a step beyond what we’ve seen in Canada. OK, Canada did have the change in its right-wing party and that time the NDP came 2nd, but we’re having all that stuff at the same time: 2 rival right-wing parties, the traditional third party doing well, Scotland/NI/Wales, *and* a Green surge.
Has Canada ever elected more than 5 parties to Parliament in a general election? We’re on 13. (5 from England, 1 more from Scotland, 1 more from Wales, 6 from NI, plus more independents than the Canadian Parliament has elected for several decades at least.)
There are dead towns like Horden across the country. It’s easy for those of us in leafier places to look at the broken economy and say “Brexit”. But too many of these places were dead before Brexit and are dead after Brexit. Brexit has failed, but isn’t the reason that towns like Horden are broken.
Reform - with a pile of cash, wall to wall Twitter support and an influx of angry and motivated activists - can do a serious amount of business in places like this. It is hopium and denialism to insist that Farage is too x or y for that to happen.
This also shows that Dominic Cummings was right about levelling up (and also he was right, albeit cynical, about selling Brexit as a panacea to dying towns).
I will sign Nomination Papers I will host an event I will be a social media ambassador I will help reach out to my network
He hasn't asked me to deliver leaflets or canvass.
Interesting. They say they are going to learn from the LDs yet have missed off the 2 most resource intensive items, followed of course by posterboarding also being absent.
There are dead towns like Horden across the country. It’s easy for those of us in leafier places to look at the broken economy and say “Brexit”. But too many of these places were dead before Brexit and are dead after Brexit. Brexit has failed, but isn’t the reason that towns like Horden are broken.
Reform - with a pile of cash, wall to wall Twitter support and an influx of angry and motivated activists - can do a serious amount of business in places like this. It is hopium and denialism to insist that Farage is too x or y for that to happen.
This also shows that Dominic Cummings was right about levelling up (and also he was right, albeit cynical, about selling Brexit as a panacea to dying towns).
The thing is how do you "level up"? Even if you look at probably the best local example of Bishop Auckland the levelling up hasn't carried the town with it...
There are dead towns like Horden across the country. It’s easy for those of us in leafier places to look at the broken economy and say “Brexit”. But too many of these places were dead before Brexit and are dead after Brexit. Brexit has failed, but isn’t the reason that towns like Horden are broken.
Reform - with a pile of cash, wall to wall Twitter support and an influx of angry and motivated activists - can do a serious amount of business in places like this. It is hopium and denialism to insist that Farage is too x or y for that to happen.
Farage will find it easier with this level of hatred being aimed at deprived areas being used as dumping grounds:
The movement of homeless families, who are disproportionately from ethnic minority backgrounds in England, into towns that are largely white, has raised concerns. Dr Shabna Begum, the chief executive of the Runnymede Trust, called the practice “racialised, coercive displacement” and said it was a “shameful indictment of our broken housing system”.
She said: “We know that people of colour are much more likely to experience homelessness and are therefore more exposed to this practice of enforced displacement out of our cities. We are talking about working-class communities of colour being forced to move out of areas which they know as home – to areas where many have reported feeling isolated, vulnerable and exposed to racism.”
I'm curious as to why some former mining areas in County Durham, and the Easington area seems especially bad, have struggled whereas those in Yorkshire and the Midlands have been a mass of new housing developments for over a decade (sometimes several decades).
Communications perhaps ? How difficult is it to get from Hordern to Sunderland and Hartlepool ?
The problem is the Tories have just had 14 years in Downing Street so it almost doesn't matter what Badenoch says/does right now, even if she says exactly the right thing the public wants to hear it is met with a thought of "well why didn't you do that in office then?"
Four years is a long-time to the next election though, so Badenoch needs to be seriously reflecting on what could be done better/differently and why the Tories should be back in Downing Street and what they would do. Not worrying about Twitter spats or soundbites.
Some reflection that perhaps Starmer should have done more of to be better prepared than he is today.
After 1997 the Tories had some seriously capable leaders in the likes of Hague and Michael Howard. It did not do them any good because the public mood was against them and the government well led. Kemi is no IDS but she is not in the class of the 2 I mentioned either.
Her chance, her only chance, is that Starmer continues to under perform and is not replaced by a panicking party. Her task is to be the person in position when that opportunity arises. I think that would be the case if she was another William Hague or another IDS. This is not really about her.
I think another factor is in play too. Unlike usually there is no probability of a general large scale return to the Tories on the basis of turn taking. Many lost Tories would need to be persuaded back by first class competence, first class team and presentation and first class policy.
And they all have LD/Reform/Labour/NOTA options if the Tory comeback project - which hasn't remotely started yet - were to fail to impress. This is the most likely of the possibilities.
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
As far as I know Dyson who owns £550 million of previously tax exempt assets and who is outraged he should now have to pay a very favourable rate on them, has not done a single day's work mucking out cows.
While a bit of a cheap shot, have you considered taking up medicine yourself? There are plenty of vacancies.
Without giving away too much I have worked alongside the medical profession all my life. Most (like all professions) are decent people but they have a level of entitlement that is extraordinary. The BMA sucks the lifeblood out of the NHS and the UK media and political class touches the forelock to them on a daily basis. No-one ever points out on the BBC that doctors wage increases are paid at the expense of other "more lowly" clinical professionals. Doctors will bleat that they have to take a long time to get qualified, well bully for them. They are the greedy fat cats of the public sector. The BMA needs to be careful that one day that when the fawning of the media becomes more questioning the public might start to realise that doctors are no more virtuous than many other professionals and a lot more greedy.
As for Dyson, he could be dealt with very differently to family farms, and pointing to hyperbolic examples does not make a good reason for bullying those who have family farming businesses and other types of family businesses. It was just pure Labour spite, with lies and exaggerations thrown in to justify it.
£550 million isn't a hyperbolic example. It is a prime example of an asset being used purely for tax avoidance. Land prices reflect the value of that tax avoidance. The return created by actual farming no way supports those prices.
If you are a "family farming business" owning your land you might be very happy to offload it at inflated prices to tax avoiders, even if you don't admit that's the real reason why you're angry with Rachel Reeves. But that's no reason for the rest of us go along with it. It is remarkable that the Conservatives have picked this hill to die on.
Duh, if you sold it to Dyson, or anyone else you would pay capital gains unless you rolled it over into another business. And yes Dyson is a hyperbolic example. I completely agree that Dyson should not benefit. If this had been about tackling Dyson and his ilk it would have been easy to frame that. It is not, it is simple Labour spite. Sorry it is too complex for you to understand, but I suppose causing a few old rural folk to top themselves because there has been no transitional time and force families to sell up is not your problem. And here was me thinking you were someone who believed in fairness. Clearly you do not.
If the idea was to prevent tax avoidance on inheritance tax, then the way to avoid penalising "real" farmers would be to target the extraction of the money.
It's not much of a tax dodge if your money is stuck in a relatively unproductive asset*.
So create an inheritance tax charge on the farm - payable when *sold*. For sanity and fairness, make it once only. So when the inheritor dies, there is still only one charge owing.
So if you farm for 20 generations, no tax. But if you sell the farm, tax time.
*I do wonder about solar farming. If you combine that with sheep grazing under the panels - which works well - do you still have an agricultural property?
Why reward people based on what their ancestors did 400+ years ago (20 generations)? Why should the first generation hard-working farmer be penalised? What happened to equality of opportunity?
Well, if you are happy to end family farming and replace it with Big Agriculture. Who will never pay any inheritance tax….
That’s a false dichotomy. One can create incentives for small agriculture without setting up a caste system.
On County Councils, these are the current seats by party - my photo quota. 21 are up for Re-election.
That looks potentially fragile for the Tories.
They are only over 2/3 of seats in Kent, Leics, Lincs, Norfolk, Staffs, Suffolk, Warks.
I'd say the other 12 they control or lead are all under threat, at least potentially.
Finger in the air, I'd say they will lose control in between 6 and 12 looking at the potential numbers and the several routes by which it could happen. A real problem is that they need simultaneous contradictory narratives, in some cases in the same County.
The problem is the Tories have just had 14 years in Downing Street so it almost doesn't matter what Badenoch says/does right now, even if she says exactly the right thing the public wants to hear it is met with a thought of "well why didn't you do that in office then?"
Four years is a long-time to the next election though, so Badenoch needs to be seriously reflecting on what could be done better/differently and why the Tories should be back in Downing Street and what they would do. Not worrying about Twitter spats or soundbites.
Some reflection that perhaps Starmer should have done more of to be better prepared than he is today.
After 1997 the Tories had some seriously capable leaders in the likes of Hague and Michael Howard. It did not do them any good because the public mood was against them and the government well led. Kemi is no IDS but she is not in the class of the 2 I mentioned either.
Her chance, her only chance, is that Starmer continues to under perform and is not replaced by a panicking party. Her task is to be the person in position when that opportunity arises. I think that would be the case if she was another William Hague or another IDS. This is not really about her.
I think another factor is in play too. Unlike usually there is no probability of a general large scale return to the Tories on the basis of turn taking. Many lost Tories would need to be persuaded back by first class competence, first class team and presentation and first class policy.
And they all have LD/Reform/Labour/NOTA options if the Tory comeback project - which hasn't remotely started yet - were to fail to impress. This is the most likely of the possibilities.
I am a strong believer in governments losing elections rather than oppositions winning them. The last government lost the election massively despite one of the weaker oppositions of my life time (as shown by their subsequent performance). The Tories still have roughly 120 seats to Reform's 5. They will still be the most obvious opposition if the UK turns against Labour.
Of course competence, cohesion and competence are good things and will no doubt help at the margins but Labour need to catastrophically fail to lose from here. And they just might.
Just been out for a walk. Pair of gobshites on an electric scooter grumbled about me not moving out of their way. There was enough room, just, but I'm irritated by entitled brats thinking pedestrians should leap out of their way.
I will sign Nomination Papers I will host an event I will be a social media ambassador I will help reach out to my network
He hasn't asked me to deliver leaflets or canvass.
Interesting. They say they are going to learn from the LDs yet have missed off the 2 most resource intensive items, followed of course by posterboarding also being absent.
Is it possible that the Reform election strategy will major on social media, media, influencers, free publicity, news, stories, networking, momentum and charismatic personalities about 98% and canvassers and leaflets about 2%?
Apart from PBers checking for LD barcharts, has anyone ever read a single one of those dismal leaflets? Or been persuaded by a persistent eccentric at your front door as you are bathing the baby and burning fish fingers?
Just been out for a walk. Pair of gobshites on an electric scooter grumbled about me not moving out of their way. There was enough room, just, but I'm irritated by entitled brats thinking pedestrians should leap out of their way.
This is why I am dubious about pedestrianisation schemes that show bikes whizzing around.
Comments
If Reform keep up the momentum and get their candidate selection in order I see no reason why they cannot make a great many gains especially if Labour and the hapless Reeves fail to deliver.
Gaining councillors too will give them a boost when it comes to profile and campaigning in elections in future.
Because my rowing club does quite a bit of non-competitive rowing, we have ancient crocks like me in the same boats as the twenty somethings. It's quite noticeable that the younger people regard going to the pub as an expensive, special occasion.
Which it is. Compare the price of 4 pints to the minimum wage....
If you are a "family farming business" owning your land you might be very happy to offload it at inflated prices to tax avoiders, even if you don't admit that's the real reason why you're angry with Rachel Reeves. But that's no reason for the rest of us go along with it. It is remarkable that the Conservatives have picked this hill to die on.
Incidentally, I have no expectation of getting named in the Honours, nor any desire to. I think it Ruritanian farce.
Klopp as a player never played in the European Cup. He never even played in the top flight throughout his entire playing career I believe.
However as a Manager he took his club into the top flight, then had a stellar career that he did not have as a player.
Based on his career as a player alone, who here would even have heard of Klopp?
It is the train managers but doesn't help with train services especially to here in North Wales
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgzpwdkl01o
Timothy Spall
Penelope Wilton
David Bradley
Brilliant actors.
They would have been hoping to win it back. That won’t happen now.
The disappointment is that people were dissatisfied with labour, in came the coalition, nothing changes. Goes back to what Rochdale says about the appeal of none of the above.
I’m expecting Reform gains, but not just from Labour, and the Greens May gain a couple too.
He very much was of the belief that no player is bigger than the club, and had a ruthless lack of sentimentality when it came to moving on players when the time was right.
Trump and Erdoğan won through entryism. They took over existing big parties in an approx. 2 party system. Farage hasn't done that.
Farage is more on an Orbán-like trajectory. Fidesz was a small party for many years in a multiparty system, before he broke through in 1998 to win most seats (although actually second on votes), becoming PM on 29% of the vote. He went on to higher vote shares and polling later. That was all under PR and Hungary is, as you note, a different sort of country, post-Communist.
France is unique in its own way: an ordinal, but not that proportional system; traditionally a 2-party system, but that broke down in 2017; a semi-presidential system. France might be a model, but we don't have that presidential component. The National Rally has taken a long time to get where they are now, and is Farage meant to be Jean-Marie or Marine Le Pen (or both!)? Also, I note Marine Le Pen hasn't won yet! The National Rally did well in the legislative election, but that still only meant coming third. She is leading in polling for the next Presidential election, but the second round polling is very close. She's not a shoo-in.
So, I think Farage and Reform UK might do very well at the next UK general election... and they might not. I absolutely think the Conservatives and Labour need to take Reform seriously and campaign against them, but a number of posters here have jumped from "possible" to "inevitable".
Best odds for biggest party at the next UK general election are: Con 15/8, Lab 7/4, Ref 5/2, LD 77/1, Green 750/1. I think the value bets there are the LibDems, the Greens or just laying everyone in order to bet on an entirely new party. I don't think 5/2 for Reform UK is a value bet.
🤷♂️
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jürgen_Klopp
Among the public as a whole, just over half (51%) think there should be a new referendum within the next five years – more specifically, a third (29%) believe there ‘definitely’ should be a vote, while around a quarter (23%) say there ‘probably’ should be one. Meanwhile, just 36% of Britons think there should not be another vote – 22% ‘definitely’ and 13% ‘probably’. Thirteen per cent said they don’t know – excluding this group, the proportions are 59% in favour of another EU vote and 41% against.
https://natcen.ac.uk/public-attitudes-new-eu-referendum
And yes, it does essentially split according to how people would vote in that hypothetical referendum.
(The National Centre for Social Research are the kind of people who do their polling properly.)
Imagine the government eliminates agency working in the NHS, due to better staffing.
Most likely result - a strike to raise pay, to compensate for reduced earnings.
She will be given the time to formulate her policies and position, as is correct, when it is 4 1/2 years away from next GE.
IMO, the MRP element giving Labour most seats, is reliant on their ability to be as economical with their share across seats. I really don't believe that this will survive 5 years of this government, they will be the ones people want out. It will be the opposite, they will be attacked from all sides.
Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 26% (+2)
LAB: 25% (-10)
REF: 21% (+6)
LDM: 14% (+2)
GRN: 8% (+1)
via @Moreincommon_
Oct-Dec
More importantly, having got the LDs out of the mud and with a lot of very good people in Parliament, he'll want to make sure there is a generation of Ed-replacements who understand Parliament.
That's what Alan Clark used to say Mrs Thatcher got wrong - there was not a sufficient group of Praetorian Guard and next generation around, and dependent on, her. So in the end the tall poppy went down.
He also needs sufficient capital built up for his son, his retirement and his family - though I'd say he's better set up than many others.
IMO he'll want to do this term, and think about going in the first half of the next one, if feasible. Then consider having a term as an 'elder statesman', or maybe the Lords.
It's not much of a tax dodge if your money is stuck in a relatively unproductive asset*.
So create an inheritance tax charge on the farm - payable when *sold*. For sanity and fairness, make it once only. So when the inheritor dies, there is still only one charge owing.
So if you farm for 20 generations, no tax. But if you sell the farm, tax time.
*I do wonder about solar farming. If you combine that with sheep grazing under the panels - which works well - do you still have an agricultural property?
Farmers who own their land benefit from inflated land prices due to it being a popular tax avoidance scheme for non farming people. The tax, or the absence of it, is on the asset and not on what you do with it. It is complex, not least because real farmers get a bunch of exemptions. Yes there are edge cases, and perhaps the government should do more to address them, but I prefer to keep things factual.
So much for the public interest in politics or even the news
He never played in the top flight, never played in the European Cup/Champions League, never played for his country.
His career as a player was completely different to Rooney's, as was his career as a Manager.
He needs his supporters and potential voters to be gullible. I don't know whether they, and how many of them, are.
Keep them shouting, and they won't read the manifesto and fall into the black hole therein.
Along with Charlie Falconer.
The claim that Campbell senior lost a pile of money is the cherry on top…
Yes, Farage certainly shouldn't be selecting the curtains for Downing St just yet but he should be being treated as a genuine contender by media and opponents alike.
I agree that other examples will break down as parallels somewhere along the line but there are enough which are close enough to learn some lessons, both for predictive purposes and for those who are activists (whether for or against), as to what tends to work and what doesn't.
Does anyone know much about Jiffy Corn Muffins from the USA? A Yankee Doodle friend was saying that these were one of a small list of things he always brings back, because he misses them so.
Having obtained a packet, they seem like a traditional basic sponge cake that I might have with jam or make into butterfly buns. I'd expect to find them featured in Charlie Brown.
Do any of our correspondents from across the pond know anything?
1) income tax is extracted as the money is shifted from the pension fund into real cash.
2) the cash is then subject to inheritance tax.
(yes I know it may be the other way round but the logic still applies).
That would be the best fix for farm land
1) An inheritance tax charge that isn't applied at the time of transfer
2) Capital gains tax when sold at which point the inheritance tax change is taken.
And that would still give a tax advantage as the capital gains would only be on the difference between the value at the time of inheritance and the time of sale.
Downside is that it doesn't raise money today so it's the correct fix for farmers but doesn't generate tax immediately.
In May 2021, Labour nationally was on 35%, now 27%, down 8% points.
Con was on 42%, now 26%, down 16% points.
My revised guess is:
Con lose 700 to 1645
Lab lose 300 to 1045
LD gain 100 to 688
Green gain 100 to 251
Reform gain 800 to 802
My conclusions remain the same. Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories but not hold as many seats in total. Starmer's position may take a greater hit than Badenoch's.
Are there any betting markets yet on the next locals?
Tiny bit lopsided.
As for "normal" I don't think anyone said that football is "normal" but I'm curious just how "normal" management consultants are either. Most people I know in managerial positions have a background of working in their industry and are not "consultants" going from industry to industry.
GPs increasingly are salaried staff with a few partners, and increasingly in large practices owned by private finance. There are only about 5000 practices now in the country. Partly this is because the partnership model is not the goldmine that it was with lots of autonomy, and partly that the regulatory and compliance criteria are increasingly onerous.
When I started my career 35 years ago General Practice was very competitive to join, with a strong training and mentorship culture, but that's history.
https://www.jiffymix.com/products/corn-muffin-mix/
No matter how well Badenoch does, this is going to be an awful night for comparisons.
Con could easily lose 1000 while still having the most Councillors. I wouldn't bet against that.
I expect there will be nothing like 800 Reform gains, though Independents may have a good year.
Badenoch isn't doing well, but there's a lot that other Tories could do to help her, which would be more beneficial than plotting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_Kingdom_local_elections
I am looking forward to the guilty pleasure of a Crackerbarrel chicken fried steak with cornbread when I go to the USA for a research meeting in the Spring. Once in a blue moon is often enough, but it is a reminder of my youth in Atlanta.
Con seats =2345x26/42 = 1452 a loss of about 900
Lab seats = 1345x27/35 = 1038 a loss of about 300
So I'll revise my Con loss to 900 and Reform gain to 1000
Con lose 900 to 1445
Lab lose 300 to 1045
LD gain 100 to 688
Green gain 100 to 251
Reform gain 1000 to 1002
Getting closer!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Kingdom_local_elections
Volatility is the one thing guaranteed I'd say.
Looking at the East Midlands (now defined as Notts and Derbys
Locally, if Zadrozny's trial happens and the results come out before the Election, it will be *very* interesting for the Ashfield Independents (11 seats on Notts CC, which is the Con / Lab balance of power, but more downside on traditional Lab) - I'm not sure what happens if his trial result comes out after candidate declarations but before the Election. I can see several AIs going "local independent", or flips to Reform (whose Councillors will be newbies, I think).
AIs are going big on "we want to control our local roads", which I interpret as preparing a pitch for the Council if Notts is split into 3 or 4 250k unitaries. They'll rebrand as Ashfield and Mansfield Independents, and try and introduce Passports to Parish Pump, North Notts.
I'd asy Nimby politics and Planning, and the Labour klutz-ridden comms strategy, may make a difference. I'm not sure how that will play around places like Leicester or Peterborough or Lincoln or Norwich, where there is no Green Belt. I expect Reform will shout about it, and hope their potential voters get a red mist and do not notice.
I think Tories could take a further hammering in PCCs and Mayors - but I'm not totally clear what is up for Election in those spheres this time.
Or, of course, it could all be delayed !
I suspect that the limit on the number of Reform gains will be number of willing Reform candidates. No doubt Nigel will ask me again.
Also Lab should gain some from the Cons which will net off against their losses elsewhere.
Its chased by a bear syndrome, the Tories have fallen so much further than the other parties that the other parties should be gaining some seats from the Tories seats even if they're not doing well themselves elsewhere.
Macron is: what if the SDP had been successful?
What does Macron tell us? He tells us that voters want change, but that change doesn’t have to come from the populist right.
There are dead towns like Horden across the country. It’s easy for those of us in leafier places to look at the broken economy and say “Brexit”. But too many of these places were dead before Brexit and are dead after Brexit. Brexit has failed, but isn’t the reason that towns like Horden are broken.
Reform - with a pile of cash, wall to wall Twitter support and an influx of angry and motivated activists - can do a serious amount of business in places like this. It is hopium and denialism to insist that Farage is too x or y for that to happen.
I'm not quite sure that those are the par scores for May (maybe take 100 off each of the red and blue piles and put them on the yellow), but they're probably not far off.
Some commentators are already preparing to write off Kemi Badenoch before she’s even completed two months in the job. They are fools.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/12/31/tories-reform-farage-fools-write-kemi-badenoch-off-early/
"But what made 2024 truly special, in terms of sustained idiocy, was that it was an election year. This meant that day after day, month after month, the average American voter was subjected to a relentless gushing spew of campaign messaging created by political professionals who — no matter what side they’re on — all share one unshakable core belief: that the average American voter has the intellectual capacity of a potted fern. It was a brutal, depressing slog, and it felt as though it would never end. In fact, it may still be going on in California: a state that apparently tabulates its ballots on a defective Etch a Sketch."
source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/12/30/dave-barry-2024-year-review/
Her chance, her only chance, is that Starmer continues to under perform and is not replaced by a panicking party. Her task is to be the person in position when that opportunity arises. I think that would be the case if she was another William Hague or another IDS. This is not really about her.
https://x.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1865845620084187195
The options he's given me are:
I will sign Nomination Papers
I will host an event
I will be a social media ambassador
I will help reach out to my network
He hasn't asked me to deliver leaflets or canvass.
In the meantime, the biggest single flow is Labour to Don't Know. That could either mean voters halfway to checking out, or Shy Socialists similar to the voters who saved Major in 1992.
Which theory is better? There's only one way to find out.
Has Canada ever elected more than 5 parties to Parliament in a general election? We’re on 13. (5 from England, 1 more from Scotland, 1 more from Wales, 6 from NI, plus more independents than the Canadian Parliament has elected for several decades at least.)
Nice use of Carol of the bells too.
And yet another indication of how our existing kit is going to get on against anyone with the full range of drones that are developing as we speak.
The movement of homeless families, who are disproportionately from ethnic minority backgrounds in England, into towns that are largely white, has raised concerns. Dr Shabna Begum, the chief executive of the Runnymede Trust, called the practice “racialised, coercive displacement” and said it was a “shameful indictment of our broken housing system”.
She said: “We know that people of colour are much more likely to experience homelessness and are therefore more exposed to this practice of enforced displacement out of our cities. We are talking about working-class communities of colour being forced to move out of areas which they know as home – to areas where many have reported feeling isolated, vulnerable and exposed to racism.”
I'm curious as to why some former mining areas in County Durham, and the Easington area seems especially bad, have struggled whereas those in Yorkshire and the Midlands have been a mass of new housing developments for over a decade (sometimes several decades).
Communications perhaps ? How difficult is it to get from Hordern to Sunderland and Hartlepool ?
And they all have LD/Reform/Labour/NOTA options if the Tory comeback project - which hasn't remotely started yet - were to fail to impress. This is the most likely of the possibilities.
That looks potentially fragile for the Tories.
They are only over 2/3 of seats in Kent, Leics, Lincs, Norfolk, Staffs, Suffolk, Warks.
I'd say the other 12 they control or lead are all under threat, at least potentially.
Finger in the air, I'd say they will lose control in between 6 and 12 looking at the potential numbers and the several routes by which it could happen. A real problem is that they need simultaneous contradictory narratives, in some cases in the same County.
Of course competence, cohesion and competence are good things and will no doubt help at the margins but Labour need to catastrophically fail to lose from here. And they just might.
Apart from PBers checking for LD barcharts, has anyone ever read a single one of those dismal leaflets? Or been persuaded by a persistent eccentric at your front door as you are bathing the baby and burning fish fingers?