Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
If that is the plan, the execution leaves a fair bit to be desired. Kemi is a fighter, and she is fighting. It's just her choice of battlefields (RefUK membership figures, GB News presenter choices) are dumb.
KB has to realise that she needs to see off Farage before she tackles SKS. Business before pleasure.
If that's her plan, the data in the header shows it's not working. Current Labour and Lib Dem supporters think Badenoch is just as horrible as Farage while almost as many Conservatives prefer him to her. Suggests Conservatives could fall further to Reform with a much smaller fall for Labour.
The problem there is that everyone is making the assumption that Reform and the Toproes are interchangeable.
But most Reform voters are “none of the above” voters - and they aren’t going to be voting Tory for a while because the Tories failed to deliver in 2019
And many Tory voters (and ex-Tory voters like myself) would vote for [almost] absolutely anyone over Farage.
Indeed. But Farage is quite popular with Tory voters overall, and he might also win some Labour voters.
It's simplistic to talk about him "uniting the right", but there's still potential for him to get to 30%. And if the rest of the votes are split five ways - Labour, Tories, Lib Dems, Greens and Nationalists - then that is plenty.
I’m sceptical that “nice Britain/centrist dads” will all unite to keep out Reform. It seems to me that Reform are getting support from (a) people unhappy about mega-immigration (b) voters who want to stick it to the man. That’s a lot of people.
Aye, it's the difference between a positive and negative vote. People thinking Farage is yuck or most people don't want what Reform offers may be missing the point.
If you're voting against something (a protest vote) you don't necessarily have to pro- whatever they're offering so long as you're against what others offer or want to kick other parties. Negativity about Starmer is already pretty high and Badenoch's about as inspiring a prospect as cold gravy.
Kemi Badenoch will be in trouble after the May locals if Reform pip her and outperform expectations, and probably in terminal trouble after the May 2026 round.
At the moment, that's what I expect to happen.
I thought the May locals had been cancelled, prior to the latest inept attempt to reorganise local government?
Counties that are already unitary will definitely have elections. Of the counties that are still two-tier, I don't think anyone is expecting them all to play nicely and agree a plan in the next fortnight. It's only the tranche of counties that come up with a plan for the next wave where there's talk of cancelling the elections, because there will be a new council along in a minute. (Going live in 2026?)
It's a mess, but it's the existing mess. And the Dictator Starmer stuff came from people still adjusting to being out of power themselves.
(Me? I'm fairly happy with the model- the bottom-up map of regions and powers seems a lot like the approach Spain took to decentralise after Franco.)
Essex county council will vote next week to scrap May's county council elections and hold a Mayoral and unitary election in 2026 as the next Essex local elections if Southend and Thurrock unitaries agree.
In which case there will never be a county or district election in Essex again
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
It was 48% now it is 0%
Leave and Remain aren't a thing anymore, its over and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
There may be some who think its an idea to rejoin, but that's a completely different question and there's no credible movement for it and so there's no serious measurements on the support of that, or what it would mean with compromises that would have to be made.
You may wish it so, but it isn't.
Tories expect voters to bear electoral grudges like the cut to WFP but forget the fiasco of Brexit? Not likely!
Its not about wishes, what I said is simply a matter of fact.
It no more matters if you don't forget Brexit than if you don't forget Covid19 lockdowns, or the Iraq War, or the closure of the mines, or whatever else people have previously held onto.
It doesn't mean it either can or will be reversed. What's done is done.
The problem is the Tories have just had 14 years in Downing Street so it almost doesn't matter what Badenoch says/does right now, even if she says exactly the right thing the public wants to hear it is met with a thought of "well why didn't you do that in office then?"
Four years is a long-time to the next election though, so Badenoch needs to be seriously reflecting on what could be done better/differently and why the Tories should be back in Downing Street and what they would do. Not worrying about Twitter spats or soundbites.
Some reflection that perhaps Starmer should have done more of to be better prepared than he is today.
She also needs to move away from oppositionism to a coherent platform.
Yet she is pledged to reverse VAT on schools, restore the agricultural tax dodge and WFP, keep the Triple Lock, increase defence spending etc.
If she is serious about small government and tax cuts she needs to be setting out broad themes at least. She needs to let pensioners know that the featherbedding is over.
Kemi may yet have the last laugh over Reform and their data.
Forget the accuracy of the numbers as Reform have been perhaps a little "too eager" to evidence and prove that is pretty accurate.
The BIGGER and potentially MASSIVE problem for Reform and a saver for Kemi is that it would appear that anyone from anywhere in the World can register as a Member and more impactful, that anyone of any age can created an email address and join with no validation of where they are from, who they are, how old they are or even IF they exist.
Now a £10 a pop ....with Billioniares / Multi Millionaires FUNDING them, it's a very very convenient back door and efficient way of data farming to created "alleged" mass Membership.
It needs investigating for sure!
Potential GOLD-DUST for Kemi and Labour!
Reform’s whole MO is to swamp social media and give the impression of an unstoppable bandwagon.
It’s about funding bots, useful idiots and fake members. After all to do so is just recycling money. I still feel they have a ceiling.
They do have a ceiling. All parties do. But the likes of Trump, Orban, Erdogan and Le Pen all poll way beyond the 30% that might be enough to win in a FPTP system with 5-6 significant parties, unless Britain is somehow different (which is arguable for Hungary and Turkey but not so much for the US and France (and there are other, closer examples that could be cited too).
And Corbyn proved that populist parties can generate very large memberships even when not particularly popular overall. Membership isn't a function of general popularity but of relatively intense support. One problem the Tories have had for a while, since political party membership stopped being a fairly normal social thing, is that very few people are strongly attached to them - and often those that are are not the sort of people who are very helpful to a party. That can be an issue for other parties too but the Tories lack a 'mission' almost as a point of identity (rightly, IMO - the Conservative Party at its best is simply about governing well: what works, what delivers, is what is right).
But Reform does have a mission, or at least claims to and appears to, to those who want it to and those only half-listening. That will draw members, activists and support. Quite probably pretty fractious, inefficient and wasteful activists but they'll be seen and heard and sometimes that's more than half the battle.
Village gossip. I heard last week from my MiL that she had been told - and it could well be straight from the horses mouth - that the spouse of a former Tory cabinet minister who lives locally voted Green in July. My MiL was horrified, but as she herself is rapidly disappearing down the GBNews rabbit hole, she would be.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
She is not a leader. She''d be better in a backroom role doing the hard work on policy etc save that she does not seem keen on hard work either.
What is surprising is that, despite becoming leader at her second attempt, she has been unable to articulate at all what Conservatism means, why she wants to be leader and where she wants to take the party and the country. That's a big failing.
She also lacks charm. Now charm can be overrated (eg Johnson or the hail-fellow-let's-have-a-pint charm of Farage) but a politician - especially a leader - should have some ability to connect, charm, persuade & appear interested in others. She doesn't. She's brittle and seems more interested in getting into silly fights over unimportant matters.
She - like far too many politicians in all parties - is too fond of repeating old mantras and thinking that what worked in the past will work again if they can only package it right. It won't. There needs to be a proper analysis of what is going wrong now and intelligent thought about the remedies for a different future. We are not in 1979 or 1997 and reheating what sort of worked then is lazy politics. This applies to Starmer too.
My overwhelming impression is of someone 10 years younger than she actually is. There is an immaturity there. It will be fatal for her unless she grows up - and fast.
If Man Utd’s aim is to have a worse manager with every appointment he’s the ideal choice to end the sequence.
Because you really couldn’t pick a worse manager than Rooney - hopefully his career as a manager has ended
IMHO he did a worse job at Brum than he did at Plymouth (though was still terrible at the latter). Plymouth were always going to struggle, whereas the season before he took team which was within the play-offs and dragged them into a relegation battle they ultimately lost. Rooney is reportedly barely involved in training the players and utterly lacks emotional intelligence required to be a good manager.
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
It was 48% now it is 0%
Leave and Remain aren't a thing anymore, its over and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
There may be some who think its an idea to rejoin, but that's a completely different question and there's no credible movement for it and so there's no serious measurements on the support of that, or what it would mean with compromises that would have to be made.
Boomers sliding into their coffins is particularly distasteful and remember many boomers voted remain
As you say it is pointless crying over spilt milk and the status quo with the EU is unlikely to change until a manifesto commitment to rejoin wins an election or another referendum is called
The problem is the Tories have just had 14 years in Downing Street so it almost doesn't matter what Badenoch says/does right now, even if she says exactly the right thing the public wants to hear it is met with a thought of "well why didn't you do that in office then?"
Four years is a long-time to the next election though, so Badenoch needs to be seriously reflecting on what could be done better/differently and why the Tories should be back in Downing Street and what they would do. Not worrying about Twitter spats or soundbites.
Some reflection that perhaps Starmer should have done more of to be better prepared than he is today.
She also needs to move away from oppositionism to a coherent platform.
Yet she is pledged to reverse VAT on schools, restore the agricultural tax dodge and WFP, keep the Triple Lock, increase defence spending etc.
If she is serious about small government and tax cuts she needs to be setting out broad themes at least. She needs to let pensioners know that the featherbedding is over.
No she knows her core vote unlike you
Doubling down on your core vote is a recipe for losing elections by a landslide.
The problem is the Tories have just had 14 years in Downing Street so it almost doesn't matter what Badenoch says/does right now, even if she says exactly the right thing the public wants to hear it is met with a thought of "well why didn't you do that in office then?"
Four years is a long-time to the next election though, so Badenoch needs to be seriously reflecting on what could be done better/differently and why the Tories should be back in Downing Street and what they would do. Not worrying about Twitter spats or soundbites.
Some reflection that perhaps Starmer should have done more of to be better prepared than he is today.
She also needs to move away from oppositionism to a coherent platform.
Yet she is pledged to reverse VAT on schools, restore the agricultural tax dodge and WFP, keep the Triple Lock, increase defence spending etc.
If she is serious about small government and tax cuts she needs to be setting out broad themes at least. She needs to let pensioners know that the featherbedding is over.
No she knows her core vote unlike you
If she is chasing Reform voters - she really doesn't know her core vote...
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
It was 48% now it is 0%
Leave and Remain aren't a thing anymore, its over and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
There may be some who think its an idea to rejoin, but that's a completely different question and there's no credible movement for it and so there's no serious measurements on the support of that, or what it would mean with compromises that would have to be made.
You may wish it so, but it isn't.
Tories expect voters to bear electoral grudges like the cut to WFP but forget the fiasco of Brexit? Not likely!
Its not about wishes, what I said is simply a matter of fact.
It no more matters if you don't forget Brexit than if you don't forget Covid19 lockdowns, or the Iraq War, or the closure of the mines, or whatever else people have previously held onto.
It doesn't mean it either can or will be reversed. What's done is done.
You are right and Foxy is wrong. The argument against Brexit has been proven - it’s been a shitshow and the polls unequivocally show that people have changed their minds.
But - and it’s a big but - things were also broken for millions of voters *when we were in the EU*. The primary driver for the Leave vote was that the economy was broken and so many towns were dead. Yes, now things are worse but the fix is not status quo ante - a return to being broken.
The red wall. Midlands industrial. Market towns. The east coast. All of these places are desperate and angry. They don’t think Brexit broke them so “they won’t forget what Farage did to them” isn’t a factor.
They have voted Labour. They have voted Tory. They have voted Leave. Nothing has worked. And nobody in the big two parties seem to understand their issues. A yawning chasm that Farage is targeting. He doesn’t have the answers either, but can be shown to listen and in part to understand. And that may be enough.
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
And the ones who survive have changed their minds...
Meanwhile, voters are joining the rolls for whom being outside the EU is just the status quo.
Kemi Badenoch will be in trouble after the May locals if Reform pip her and outperform expectations, and probably in terminal trouble after the May 2026 round.
At the moment, that's what I expect to happen.
I thought the May locals had been cancelled, prior to the latest inept attempt to reorganise local government?
Counties that are already unitary will definitely have elections. Of the counties that are still two-tier, I don't think anyone is expecting them all to play nicely and agree a plan in the next fortnight. It's only the tranche of counties that come up with a plan for the next wave where there's talk of cancelling the elections, because there will be a new council along in a minute. (Going live in 2026?)
It's a mess, but it's the existing mess. And the Dictator Starmer stuff came from people still adjusting to being out of power themselves.
(Me? I'm fairly happy with the model- the bottom-up map of regions and powers seems a lot like the approach Spain took to decentralise after Franco.)
Essex county council will vote next week to scrap May's county council elections and hold a Mayoral and unitary election in 2026 as the next Essex local elections if Southend and Thurrock unitaries agree.
In which case there will never be a county or district election in Essex again
They'd be voting to request the elections be postponed by the Government - Essex CC does not have the power to scrap its own elections.
I'm a bit doubtful permission will be given in these cases. Creation of unitary authorities is no straightforward matter simply in terms of the logistics, employment implications and so on. It seems to me a bit unlikely that a new unitary would be ready to begin by May 2026 - probably more like 2027, in which case a newly elected County Council would be best to steer it.
It's not impossible by any means, but I'm a bit sceptical these requests will be granted.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
She is not a leader. She''d be better in a backroom role doing the hard work on policy etc save that she does not seem keen on hard work either.
What is surprising is that, despite becoming leader at her second attempt, she has been unable to articulate at all what Conservatism means, why she wants to be leader and where she wants to take the party and the country. That's a big failing.
She also lacks charm. Now charm can be overrated (eg Johnson or the hail-fellow-let's-have-a-pint charm of Farage) but a politician - especially a leader - should have some ability to connect, charm, persuade & appear interested in others. She doesn't. She's brittle and seems more interested in getting into silly fights over unimportant matters.
She - like far too many politicians in all parties - is too fond of repeating old mantras and thinking that what worked in the past will work again if they can only package it right. It won't. There needs to be a proper analysis of what is going wrong now and intelligent thought about the remedies for a different future. We are not in 1979 or 1997 and reheating what sort of worked then is lazy politics. This applies to Starmer too.
My overwhelming impression is of someone 10 years younger than she actually is. There is an immaturity there. It will be fatal for her unless she grows up - and fast.
Yet on present polls Kemi will gain 100 seats and get a hung parliament, better even than Corbyn 2017 did from where he started
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
It was 48% now it is 0%
Leave and Remain aren't a thing anymore, its over and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
There may be some who think its an idea to rejoin, but that's a completely different question and there's no credible movement for it and so there's no serious measurements on the support of that, or what it would mean with compromises that would have to be made.
You may wish it so, but it isn't.
Tories expect voters to bear electoral grudges like the cut to WFP but forget the fiasco of Brexit? Not likely!
A good example of this is Tooting. In 2015, Tooting was a seat which was trending Tory and they were probably hoping it to pick it up come the next GE. The following GE, after the referendum, Labour won with a 15k majority and the last GE with a 19k majority. It's basically gone from a marginal to a very safe seat because voters still bear a grudge about Brexit and the direction the Tory party went. Similar thing has also happened in Hove, Hampstead etc.
Kemi may yet have the last laugh over Reform and their data.
Forget the accuracy of the numbers as Reform have been perhaps a little "too eager" to evidence and prove that is pretty accurate.
The BIGGER and potentially MASSIVE problem for Reform and a saver for Kemi is that it would appear that anyone from anywhere in the World can register as a Member and more impactful, that anyone of any age can created an email address and join with no validation of where they are from, who they are, how old they are or even IF they exist.
Now a £10 a pop ....with Billioniares / Multi Millionaires FUNDING them, it's a very very convenient back door and efficient way of data farming to created "alleged" mass Membership.
It needs investigating for sure!
Potential GOLD-DUST for Kemi and Labour!
Reform’s whole MO is to swamp social media and give the impression of an unstoppable bandwagon.
It’s about funding bots, useful idiots and fake members. After all to do so is just recycling money. I still feel they have a ceiling.
They do have a ceiling. All parties do. But the likes of Trump, Orban, Erdogan and Le Pen all poll way beyond the 30% that might be enough to win in a FPTP system with 5-6 significant parties, unless Britain is somehow different (which is arguable for Hungary and Turkey but not so much for the US and France (and there are other, closer examples that could be cited too).
And Corbyn proved that populist parties can generate very large memberships even when not particularly popular overall. Membership isn't a function of general popularity but of relatively intense support. One problem the Tories have had for a while, since political party membership stopped being a fairly normal social thing, is that very few people are strongly attached to them - and often those that are are not the sort of people who are very helpful to a party. That can be an issue for other parties too but the Tories lack a 'mission' almost as a point of identity (rightly, IMO - the Conservative Party at its best is simply about governing well: what works, what delivers, is what is right).
But Reform does have a mission, or at least claims to and appears to, to those who want it to and those only half-listening. That will draw members, activists and support. Quite probably pretty fractious, inefficient and wasteful activists but they'll be seen and heard and sometimes that's more than half the battle.
Well they are not getting many Tory Councillors or Tory Council candidates jumping ship. The mechanism within the party to be designated an approved council candidate is quite onorous and whilst it was sometimes unhelpful in the past it should prevent many defections.
After May Farage and Reform might have loads of councils under full control but that looks unlikely to me, two at most would be an achievement. The rest will require coalitions and they will almost always be the junior partner. The maths will be complex. No doubt there will be some "Rainbow" coalitions - Rainbows invariably without any Blue or light Blue elements.
Of course by asking potential members to join now he limits the numbers who will join in the future, another problem.
Kemi is getting a very unfair press at the moment but knocking copy was always the fare from second and third rate commentators. She might not be Margaret Thatcher but in the present climate she doesn't have to be. With an opponent who is turning out to be the worst leader the country has had since James II her main task is to survive.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
If that is the plan, the execution leaves a fair bit to be desired. Kemi is a fighter, and she is fighting. It's just her choice of battlefields (RefUK membership figures, GB News presenter choices) are dumb.
KB has to realise that she needs to see off Farage before she tackles SKS. Business before pleasure.
If that's her plan, the data in the header shows it's not working. Current Labour and Lib Dem supporters think Badenoch is just as horrible as Farage while almost as many Conservatives prefer him to her. Suggests Conservatives could fall further to Reform with a much smaller fall for Labour.
The problem there is that everyone is making the assumption that Reform and the Toproes are interchangeable.
But most Reform voters are “none of the above” voters - and they aren’t going to be voting Tory for a while because the Tories failed to deliver in 2019
And many Tory voters (and ex-Tory voters like myself) would vote for [almost] absolutely anyone over Farage.
Indeed. But Farage is quite popular with Tory voters overall, and he might also win some Labour voters.
It's simplistic to talk about him "uniting the right", but there's still potential for him to get to 30%. And if the rest of the votes are split five ways - Labour, Tories, Lib Dems, Greens and Nationalists - then that is plenty.
All politics is relative. Reform will, as things stand, do well if Lab and Con continue to fail and unless some new star comes along. Thus far the LDs can only shine at by-elections and in the special bits of geography where they and not Labour are the occupying squirrels. No sign exists of this extending.
Which means that, as nature abhors a vcauum, in the particular times we are in, of overwhelming failure of Lab and Con, if that carries on, Reform will do well. How well? No idea.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
She is not a leader. She''d be better in a backroom role doing the hard work on policy etc save that she does not seem keen on hard work either.
What is surprising is that, despite becoming leader at her second attempt, she has been unable to articulate at all what Conservatism means, why she wants to be leader and where she wants to take the party and the country. That's a big failing.
She also lacks charm. Now charm can be overrated (eg Johnson or the hail-fellow-let's-have-a-pint charm of Farage) but a politician - especially a leader - should have some ability to connect, charm, persuade & appear interested in others. She doesn't. She's brittle and seems more interested in getting into silly fights over unimportant matters.
She - like far too many politicians in all parties - is too fond of repeating old mantras and thinking that what worked in the past will work again if they can only package it right. It won't. There needs to be a proper analysis of what is going wrong now and intelligent thought about the remedies for a different future. We are not in 1979 or 1997 and reheating what sort of worked then is lazy politics. This applies to Starmer too.
My overwhelming impression is of someone 10 years younger than she actually is. There is an immaturity there. It will be fatal for her unless she grows up - and fast.
As I have said before she doesn't seem ready for prime time to me and I think she will regret running for leader too soon in her career.
Kemi Badenoch will be in trouble after the May locals if Reform pip her and outperform expectations, and probably in terminal trouble after the May 2026 round.
At the moment, that's what I expect to happen.
I think there is zero chance that Reform end up with more seats than the Tories but 100% chance that Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories.
My current best guess, looking at the relative shares in 2021to now, and current trends, is:
Con lose 600 to 1745 Lab stand still at 1345 LD gain 100 to 688 Green gain 100 to 251 Reform gain 400 to 402
All the smaller parties gain at the expense of Con and Lab. Anti-incumbency. If this should happen, will Badenoch be in trouble or will there be relief within the Tories that it's not worse?
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Nobody claiming the triple lock gets to complain about pay rises.
The honours list just gets me so annoyed. It is so random and rewards so many for just doing their job. The differentiation between awards based upon status also annoys me eg a captain of industry gets a knighthood, whereas the dinner lady gets an MBE.
I remember two agents doing the same job for years at elections. One was a volunteer and the other paid. The paid one got at OBE, the unpaid one nothing. Madness.
The only awards should be for gallantry and voluntary service. Just those. And the level of award should be commensurate with your bravery or service and not their social standing.
Kemi may yet have the last laugh over Reform and their data.
Forget the accuracy of the numbers as Reform have been perhaps a little "too eager" to evidence and prove that is pretty accurate.
The BIGGER and potentially MASSIVE problem for Reform and a saver for Kemi is that it would appear that anyone from anywhere in the World can register as a Member and more impactful, that anyone of any age can created an email address and join with no validation of where they are from, who they are, how old they are or even IF they exist.
Now a £10 a pop ....with Billioniares / Multi Millionaires FUNDING them, it's a very very convenient back door and efficient way of data farming to created "alleged" mass Membership.
It needs investigating for sure!
Potential GOLD-DUST for Kemi and Labour!
Reform’s whole MO is to swamp social media and give the impression of an unstoppable bandwagon.
It’s about funding bots, useful idiots and fake members. After all to do so is just recycling money. I still feel they have a ceiling.
They do have a ceiling. All parties do. But the likes of Trump, Orban, Erdogan and Le Pen all poll way beyond the 30% that might be enough to win in a FPTP system with 5-6 significant parties, unless Britain is somehow different (which is arguable for Hungary and Turkey but not so much for the US and France (and there are other, closer examples that could be cited too).
And Corbyn proved that populist parties can generate very large memberships even when not particularly popular overall. Membership isn't a function of general popularity but of relatively intense support. One problem the Tories have had for a while, since political party membership stopped being a fairly normal social thing, is that very few people are strongly attached to them - and often those that are are not the sort of people who are very helpful to a party. That can be an issue for other parties too but the Tories lack a 'mission' almost as a point of identity (rightly, IMO - the Conservative Party at its best is simply about governing well: what works, what delivers, is what is right).
But Reform does have a mission, or at least claims to and appears to, to those who want it to and those only half-listening. That will draw members, activists and support. Quite probably pretty fractious, inefficient and wasteful activists but they'll be seen and heard and sometimes that's more than half the battle.
That's a fine analysis. The Conservatives have destroyed their "governing well" USP for at least this Parliament, I think.
Can they regain it; might another change of leader help - or would it just be seen as desperation ?
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
It was 48% now it is 0%
Leave and Remain aren't a thing anymore, its over and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
There may be some who think its an idea to rejoin, but that's a completely different question and there's no credible movement for it and so there's no serious measurements on the support of that, or what it would mean with compromises that would have to be made.
You may wish it so, but it isn't.
Tories expect voters to bear electoral grudges like the cut to WFP but forget the fiasco of Brexit? Not likely!
Yes, you can just see the overriding passion to reverse Brexit in the
[checks notes]
...tanking of Labour's poll ratings and rise of the Farage Party?
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
Different context given the Canadian Conservatives have been in opposition for over 9 years and lost three consecutive general elections while the UK Conservatives have only been in opposition for six months.
Though when Trudeau took over the Liberals were third remember with the NDP official opposition. Most polls still have Trudeau's Liberals second still even if he likely loses power after a decade as PM
As I understand it there's currently heavy pressure on Trudeau to stand down from within his own party to avoid a pretty catastrophic election result in a few months' time. But he's very stubborn and it looks like he wants to stay to the bitter end.
Given it was Trudeau who took the Liberals from third to first and it was Trudeau who has won three successive Canadian elections I doubt any alternative Liberal leader would do much better
SFAICS there is no point in thinking about winners and losers in the GE 2028/9. What can be thought about is the factors in play about doing well/better and doing badly/worse. There is a current astonishing situation in which no party is getting even 30% in the polls, with the very occasional exception. No-one is popular, no-one is guaranteed a place at the table, and no-one is totally out of things. Unusual.
Tories. Can only do well if Labour fail and also Tories can present as absolutely united, principled, clear and outstanding and new WRT themselves, not as critics of Labour. We will remain utterly uninterested in their critiques of Labour. They had too long to do better.
chance: 10%
Labour. Can only do well if they communicate well, don't make unforced errors, have some luck, are seen to succeed reasonably well, don't fiscally crash and sort the politics of housing and migartion.
Chance: 15%
Reform: Do well if either of the above don't happen. Do very well if both don't happen.
Looks like about 70% chance.
I don't believe my own conclusion. But it still may be right. DYOR.
You can get 5/2 on Reform UK most seats at the next general election, which implies a 29% chance. Are those convinced of Reform UK’s rise here betting on it?
Personally no - ties money up for too long, too many unknowns, and crucially I don't believe my own conclusions.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
She is not a leader. She''d be better in a backroom role doing the hard work on policy etc save that she does not seem keen on hard work either.
What is surprising is that, despite becoming leader at her second attempt, she has been unable to articulate at all what Conservatism means, why she wants to be leader and where she wants to take the party and the country. That's a big failing.
She also lacks charm. Now charm can be overrated (eg Johnson or the hail-fellow-let's-have-a-pint charm of Farage) but a politician - especially a leader - should have some ability to connect, charm, persuade & appear interested in others. She doesn't. She's brittle and seems more interested in getting into silly fights over unimportant matters.
She - like far too many politicians in all parties - is too fond of repeating old mantras and thinking that what worked in the past will work again if they can only package it right. It won't. There needs to be a proper analysis of what is going wrong now and intelligent thought about the remedies for a different future. We are not in 1979 or 1997 and reheating what sort of worked then is lazy politics. This applies to Starmer too.
My overwhelming impression is of someone 10 years younger than she actually is. There is an immaturity there. It will be fatal for her unless she grows up - and fast.
As I have said before she doesn't seem ready for prime time to me and I think she will regret running for leader too soon in her career.
The problem there is that if you don't go for it when the chance arises you may not get a second chance...
Say she didn't stand - it would have been Cleverly against Jenrick. Cleverly wins and leads the party to the 2029 election and wins. It's going to be 2034 minimum before there is the next leadership election by which time Kemi is old news...
The way the Rouble/US$ market is going over the past few weeks, it looks as if there’s almost no liquidity in it - so the price keeps edging up until someone throws a large pile of dollars at it.
In other words, the Russian central bank is burning through its foreign currency reserves trying to prop up their own currency. Which usually finishes with a massive devaluation, think Black Wednesday but on steroids.
Top of the list of wishes for 2025, is that the Russian economy collapses. The almost total lack of gas exports from Russia to Europe in the new year should be a good starting point for starving them of hard cash.
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
If that is the plan, the execution leaves a fair bit to be desired. Kemi is a fighter, and she is fighting. It's just her choice of battlefields (RefUK membership figures, GB News presenter choices) are dumb.
KB has to realise that she needs to see off Farage before she tackles SKS. Business before pleasure.
If that's her plan, the data in the header shows it's not working. Current Labour and Lib Dem supporters think Badenoch is just as horrible as Farage while almost as many Conservatives prefer him to her. Suggests Conservatives could fall further to Reform with a much smaller fall for Labour.
The problem there is that everyone is making the assumption that Reform and the Toproes are interchangeable.
But most Reform voters are “none of the above” voters - and they aren’t going to be voting Tory for a while because the Tories failed to deliver in 2019
And many Tory voters (and ex-Tory voters like myself) would vote for [almost] absolutely anyone over Farage.
You voted for Labour not the Tories in July and you voted for Farage in the 2019 EU Parliament elections
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
She is not a leader. She''d be better in a backroom role doing the hard work on policy etc save that she does not seem keen on hard work either.
...[snip!]
She is a leader. She is the sacrificial leader that Tories elect when they lose before they settle down to looking for a serious leader candidate with realistic policies.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
...She - like far too many politicians in all parties - is too fond of repeating old mantras and thinking that what worked in the past will work again if they can only package it right. It won't. There needs to be a proper analysis of what is going wrong now and intelligent thought about the remedies for a different future. We are not in 1979 or 1997 and reheating what sort of worked then is lazy politics. This applies to Starmer too...
A recognition that not a few of our problems result from the engrained beliefs of the Thatcher and Blair eras, and an analysis of what might be done to fix that, is largely lacking in contemporary politics.
To give them a little credit, Labour's planning/housing policies are actually a tentative move in that direction, but there's no much else there.
Kemi may yet have the last laugh over Reform and their data.
Forget the accuracy of the numbers as Reform have been perhaps a little "too eager" to evidence and prove that is pretty accurate.
The BIGGER and potentially MASSIVE problem for Reform and a saver for Kemi is that it would appear that anyone from anywhere in the World can register as a Member and more impactful, that anyone of any age can created an email address and join with no validation of where they are from, who they are, how old they are or even IF they exist.
Now a £10 a pop ....with Billioniares / Multi Millionaires FUNDING them, it's a very very convenient back door and efficient way of data farming to created "alleged" mass Membership.
It needs investigating for sure!
Potential GOLD-DUST for Kemi and Labour!
Reform’s whole MO is to swamp social media and give the impression of an unstoppable bandwagon.
It’s about funding bots, useful idiots and fake members. After all to do so is just recycling money. I still feel they have a ceiling.
They do have a ceiling. All parties do. But the likes of Trump, Orban, Erdogan and Le Pen all poll way beyond the 30% that might be enough to win in a FPTP system with 5-6 significant parties, unless Britain is somehow different (which is arguable for Hungary and Turkey but not so much for the US and France (and there are other, closer examples that could be cited too).
And Corbyn proved that populist parties can generate very large memberships even when not particularly popular overall. Membership isn't a function of general popularity but of relatively intense support. One problem the Tories have had for a while, since political party membership stopped being a fairly normal social thing, is that very few people are strongly attached to them - and often those that are are not the sort of people who are very helpful to a party. That can be an issue for other parties too but the Tories lack a 'mission' almost as a point of identity (rightly, IMO - the Conservative Party at its best is simply about governing well: what works, what delivers, is what is right).
But Reform does have a mission, or at least claims to and appears to, to those who want it to and those only half-listening. That will draw members, activists and support. Quite probably pretty fractious, inefficient and wasteful activists but they'll be seen and heard and sometimes that's more than half the battle.
That's a fine analysis. The Conservatives have destroyed their "governing well" USP for at least this Parliament, I think.
Can they regain it; might another change of leader help - or would it just be seen as desperation ?
I doubt if a leader is available who can make the real difference - which is to reignite the party as one which addresses the welfare of the nation in general, and in particular commands the support of a stable middle class and the aspiring class.
No one event is responsible for this downfall, but if there were a seminal moment it would be Cameron's failure to prepare for and see through the consequences of whichever way the 2016 referendum vote went. That combination of failure, ineptitude, irresponsibility and power vacuum is perhaps impossible to repair.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
She is not a leader. She''d be better in a backroom role doing the hard work on policy etc save that she does not seem keen on hard work either.
...[snip!]
She is a leader. She is the sacrificial leader that Tories elect when they lose before they settle down to looking for a serious leader candidate with realistic policies.
Badenoch is nothing more than a placeholder...
Only one self-indulgent placeholder before the Conservatives choose someone who looks like a PM-in-waiting?
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
If that is the plan, the execution leaves a fair bit to be desired. Kemi is a fighter, and she is fighting. It's just her choice of battlefields (RefUK membership figures, GB News presenter choices) are dumb.
KB has to realise that she needs to see off Farage before she tackles SKS. Business before pleasure.
If that's her plan, the data in the header shows it's not working. Current Labour and Lib Dem supporters think Badenoch is just as horrible as Farage while almost as many Conservatives prefer him to her. Suggests Conservatives could fall further to Reform with a much smaller fall for Labour.
No on present polls Reform are gaining redwall and ex industrial hard leave Labour seats Kemi can't reach while she was wins back rural seats and soft Leave town and suburban seats the Tories lost to Labour in July
It wasn't clear from my post but I think we're talking about different things. There has been a significant increase since the election in C+R vote share back to its norm of slightly less than half. I think that's what you're picking up.
The figures above reflect the changed composition of party support. Assuming Farage is not happy with a third place vote share and a fourth or lower place seat share, and is out for the kill, the figures above suggest most of that extra support will come from the Conservatives and not Labour. We would need adjust the Calculus accordingly.
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
It was 48% now it is 0%
Leave and Remain aren't a thing anymore, its over and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
There may be some who think its an idea to rejoin, but that's a completely different question and there's no credible movement for it and so there's no serious measurements on the support of that, or what it would mean with compromises that would have to be made.
You may wish it so, but it isn't.
Tories expect voters to bear electoral grudges like the cut to WFP but forget the fiasco of Brexit? Not likely!
Yes, you can just see the overriding passion to reverse Brexit in the
[checks notes]
...tanking of Labour's poll ratings and rise of the Farage Party?
Remember that that the fall in their ratings is a result of their own voters changing their mind. Your continued dislike of them hasn't contributed to it.
Perhaps part of the reason is because they won't entertain the idea of a closer relationship with Europe, even while Labour voters are very keen on the idea.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
If that is the plan, the execution leaves a fair bit to be desired. Kemi is a fighter, and she is fighting. It's just her choice of battlefields (RefUK membership figures, GB News presenter choices) are dumb.
KB has to realise that she needs to see off Farage before she tackles SKS. Business before pleasure.
If that's her plan, the data in the header shows it's not working. Current Labour and Lib Dem supporters think Badenoch is just as horrible as Farage while almost as many Conservatives prefer him to her. Suggests Conservatives could fall further to Reform with a much smaller fall for Labour.
The problem there is that everyone is making the assumption that Reform and the Toproes are interchangeable.
But most Reform voters are “none of the above” voters - and they aren’t going to be voting Tory for a while because the Tories failed to deliver in 2019
And many Tory voters (and ex-Tory voters like myself) would vote for [almost] absolutely anyone over Farage.
You voted for Labour not the Tories in July and you voted for Farage in the 2019 EU Parliament elections
You still don't get it.
Voting for the 2019 elections was no more about sending people to Parliament than anyone voting for Farage to eat kangaroo anus was.
Westminster is a real election, sending people to a real Parliament to serve a full term. Its a totally different matter.
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
It was 48% now it is 0%
Leave and Remain aren't a thing anymore, its over and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
There may be some who think its an idea to rejoin, but that's a completely different question and there's no credible movement for it and so there's no serious measurements on the support of that, or what it would mean with compromises that would have to be made.
You may wish it so, but it isn't.
Tories expect voters to bear electoral grudges like the cut to WFP but forget the fiasco of Brexit? Not likely!
Its not about wishes, what I said is simply a matter of fact.
It no more matters if you don't forget Brexit than if you don't forget Covid19 lockdowns, or the Iraq War, or the closure of the mines, or whatever else people have previously held onto.
It doesn't mean it either can or will be reversed. What's done is done.
I don't think anyone is expecting Brexit to be reversed any time soon, but joining the EEA is quite possible and a likely spur to growth.
But in the unlikely scenario of Starmer vs Farage at the next GE, Brexit will loom large. It's Farage's sole achievement, and not a popular one.
If they do ditch Badenoch, then perhaps there will be another chance for #Priti4Leader ?
Patel wants to stay in the ECHR like Kemi but unlike Jenrick so would not have gained anymore Reform voters than Kemi.
Priti might be leaking more to the LDs than Kemi is though
Priti really would not have been a good idea. They should have done the obvious and gone for Cleverly who would likely have won the leadership had the MPs not monumentally screwed up. He certainly wouldn't be trailing Starmer in the best PM rankings quite in the way Kemi is. I suspect he may run for London Mayor as I can't imagine much enthusiasm for a fourth term of Sir Sadiq.
I still think Kemi has potential, and could punch through, and we shouldn't write her off just yet.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
If that is the plan, the execution leaves a fair bit to be desired. Kemi is a fighter, and she is fighting. It's just her choice of battlefields (RefUK membership figures, GB News presenter choices) are dumb.
KB has to realise that she needs to see off Farage before she tackles SKS. Business before pleasure.
If that's her plan, the data in the header shows it's not working. Current Labour and Lib Dem supporters think Badenoch is just as horrible as Farage while almost as many Conservatives prefer him to her. Suggests Conservatives could fall further to Reform with a much smaller fall for Labour.
No on present polls Reform are gaining redwall and ex industrial hard leave Labour seats Kemi can't reach while she was wins back rural seats and soft Leave town and suburban seats the Tories lost to Labour in July
It wasn't clear from my post but I think we're talking about different things. There has been a significant increase since the election in C+R vote share back to its norm of slightly less than half. I think that's what you're picking up.
The figures above reflect the changed composition of party support. Assuming Farage is not happy with a third place vote share and a fourth or lower place seat share, and is out for the kill, the figures above suggest most of that extra support will come from the Conservatives and not Labour. We would need adjust the Calculus accordingly.
The figures suggest only about 45% of 2024 Tory voters would vote Reform if no Tory candidate, about 30% would go LD and 10% Starmer Labour. Ironically Starmer is more likely to lose his majority against Kemi and Farage than Farage alone
Kemi may yet have the last laugh over Reform and their data.
Forget the accuracy of the numbers as Reform have been perhaps a little "too eager" to evidence and prove that is pretty accurate.
The BIGGER and potentially MASSIVE problem for Reform and a saver for Kemi is that it would appear that anyone from anywhere in the World can register as a Member and more impactful, that anyone of any age can created an email address and join with no validation of where they are from, who they are, how old they are or even IF they exist.
Now a £10 a pop ....with Billioniares / Multi Millionaires FUNDING them, it's a very very convenient back door and efficient way of data farming to created "alleged" mass Membership.
It needs investigating for sure!
Potential GOLD-DUST for Kemi and Labour!
Reform’s whole MO is to swamp social media and give the impression of an unstoppable bandwagon.
It’s about funding bots, useful idiots and fake members. After all to do so is just recycling money. I still feel they have a ceiling.
They do have a ceiling. All parties do. But the likes of Trump, Orban, Erdogan and Le Pen all poll way beyond the 30% that might be enough to win in a FPTP system with 5-6 significant parties, unless Britain is somehow different (which is arguable for Hungary and Turkey but not so much for the US and France (and there are other, closer examples that could be cited too).
And Corbyn proved that populist parties can generate very large memberships even when not particularly popular overall. Membership isn't a function of general popularity but of relatively intense support. One problem the Tories have had for a while, since political party membership stopped being a fairly normal social thing, is that very few people are strongly attached to them - and often those that are are not the sort of people who are very helpful to a party. That can be an issue for other parties too but the Tories lack a 'mission' almost as a point of identity (rightly, IMO - the Conservative Party at its best is simply about governing well: what works, what delivers, is what is right).
But Reform does have a mission, or at least claims to and appears to, to those who want it to and those only half-listening. That will draw members, activists and support. Quite probably pretty fractious, inefficient and wasteful activists but they'll be seen and heard and sometimes that's more than half the battle.
Well they are not getting many Tory Councillors or Tory Council candidates jumping ship. The mechanism within the party to be designated an approved council candidate is quite onorous and whilst it was sometimes unhelpful in the past it should prevent many defections.
After May Farage and Reform might have loads of councils under full control but that looks unlikely to me, two at most would be an achievement. The rest will require coalitions and they will almost always be the junior partner. The maths will be complex. No doubt there will be some "Rainbow" coalitions - Rainbows invariably without any Blue or light Blue elements.
Of course by asking potential members to join now he limits the numbers who will join in the future, another problem.
Kemi is getting a very unfair press at the moment but knocking copy was always the fare from second and third rate commentators. She might not be Margaret Thatcher but in the present climate she doesn't have to be. With an opponent who is turning out to be the worst leader the country has had since James II her main task is to survive.
I doubt Reform will want to be part of any coalition anywhere unless they're leading it (and maybe not even then). Much better from their point of view to act as a 'Common Sense Opposition' to a mainstream making cuts but simultaneously funding unpopular things (often statutory things, but, details).
Yes, I expect Reform to be running few councils after May, though they will gain plenty of councillors and it's not impossible they could gain outright control in some places. They also have the Doncaster and Lincolnshire mayoralties to go at - a task made easier by Labour's refusal to change the voting system for them.
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
It was 48% now it is 0%
Leave and Remain aren't a thing anymore, its over and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
There may be some who think its an idea to rejoin, but that's a completely different question and there's no credible movement for it and so there's no serious measurements on the support of that, or what it would mean with compromises that would have to be made.
You may wish it so, but it isn't.
Tories expect voters to bear electoral grudges like the cut to WFP but forget the fiasco of Brexit? Not likely!
Yes, you can just see the overriding passion to reverse Brexit in the
[checks notes]
...tanking of Labour's poll ratings and rise of the Farage Party?
Remember that that the fall in their ratings is a result of their own voters changing their mind. Your continued dislike of them hasn't contributed to it.
Perhaps part of the reason is because they won't entertain the idea of a closer relationship with Europe, even while Labour voters are very keen on the idea.
I think it is far more the self inflicted errors of judgement and the budget than anything to do with Europe, not least in the red wall seats
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
As bad as United are, we know why we’re bad. Citeh? In a state of complete collapse, without any clue what has gone wrong. And thus no idea how to stop their descent.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
If that is the plan, the execution leaves a fair bit to be desired. Kemi is a fighter, and she is fighting. It's just her choice of battlefields (RefUK membership figures, GB News presenter choices) are dumb.
KB has to realise that she needs to see off Farage before she tackles SKS. Business before pleasure.
If that's her plan, the data in the header shows it's not working. Current Labour and Lib Dem supporters think Badenoch is just as horrible as Farage while almost as many Conservatives prefer him to her. Suggests Conservatives could fall further to Reform with a much smaller fall for Labour.
The problem there is that everyone is making the assumption that Reform and the Toproes are interchangeable.
But most Reform voters are “none of the above” voters - and they aren’t going to be voting Tory for a while because the Tories failed to deliver in 2019
And many Tory voters (and ex-Tory voters like myself) would vote for [almost] absolutely anyone over Farage.
You voted for Labour not the Tories in July and you voted for Farage in the 2019 EU Parliament elections
You still don't get it.
Voting for the 2019 elections was no more about sending people to Parliament than anyone voting for Farage to eat kangaroo anus was.
Westminster is a real election, sending people to a real Parliament to serve a full term. Its a totally different matter.
I despise Farage, always have done.
I voted in the euro elections to send someone to the EP. However short a time.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
If that is the plan, the execution leaves a fair bit to be desired. Kemi is a fighter, and she is fighting. It's just her choice of battlefields (RefUK membership figures, GB News presenter choices) are dumb.
KB has to realise that she needs to see off Farage before she tackles SKS. Business before pleasure.
If that's her plan, the data in the header shows it's not working. Current Labour and Lib Dem supporters think Badenoch is just as horrible as Farage while almost as many Conservatives prefer him to her. Suggests Conservatives could fall further to Reform with a much smaller fall for Labour.
No on present polls Reform are gaining redwall and ex industrial hard leave Labour seats Kemi can't reach while she was wins back rural seats and soft Leave town and suburban seats the Tories lost to Labour in July
It wasn't clear from my post but I think we're talking about different things. There has been a significant increase since the election in C+R vote share back to its norm of slightly less than half. I think that's what you're picking up.
The figures above reflect the changed composition of party support. Assuming Farage is not happy with a third place vote share and a fourth or lower place seat share, and is out for the kill, the figures above suggest most of that extra support will come from the Conservatives and not Labour. We would need adjust the Calculus accordingly.
The curious thing is that Red Wall Reform is a dog that barks a lot, but (so far) rarely bites. No seats in 2019. Even in 2024, the seats they won all had elected Conservatives in the past... Seats the Conservatives would expect to win in a reasonable year.
There's even something skewy in the models used by Professor Curtice (whom God preserve). The 2024 exit poll had a dozen or so Grimtown North seats falling to the Faragists... and they didn't.
That might change, with enough votes it has to change, but it's odd.
The real question is, is Labour’s loss in voteshare because voters have gone permanently or is it because they are waiting for something to happen? My view is that Labour will be back up above 30% no trouble if they show delivery within a year.
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
It was 48% now it is 0%
Leave and Remain aren't a thing anymore, its over and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
There may be some who think its an idea to rejoin, but that's a completely different question and there's no credible movement for it and so there's no serious measurements on the support of that, or what it would mean with compromises that would have to be made.
You may wish it so, but it isn't.
Tories expect voters to bear electoral grudges like the cut to WFP but forget the fiasco of Brexit? Not likely!
Yes, you can just see the overriding passion to reverse Brexit in the
[checks notes]
...tanking of Labour's poll ratings and rise of the Farage Party?
Remember that that the fall in their ratings is a result of their own voters changing their mind. Your continued dislike of them hasn't contributed to it.
Perhaps part of the reason is because they won't entertain the idea of a closer relationship with Europe, even while Labour voters are very keen on the idea.
Or we could just look at the polls that ask questions on Europe directly, rather than trying to interpret statistical entrails.
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
As bad as United are, we know why we’re bad. Citeh? In a state of complete collapse, without any clue what has gone wrong. And thus no idea how to stop their descent.
It is remarkable that at United this collapse is not unexpected in view of the disastrous management and transfers policies of Amorin's predecessors, but City is astonishing and supposedly due to an ageing team and total loss of confidence
Kemi Badenoch will be in trouble after the May locals if Reform pip her and outperform expectations, and probably in terminal trouble after the May 2026 round.
At the moment, that's what I expect to happen.
I thought the May locals had been cancelled, prior to the latest inept attempt to reorganise local government?
Counties that are already unitary will definitely have elections. Of the counties that are still two-tier, I don't think anyone is expecting them all to play nicely and agree a plan in the next fortnight. It's only the tranche of counties that come up with a plan for the next wave where there's talk of cancelling the elections, because there will be a new council along in a minute. (Going live in 2026?)
It's a mess, but it's the existing mess. And the Dictator Starmer stuff came from people still adjusting to being out of power themselves.
(Me? I'm fairly happy with the model- the bottom-up map of regions and powers seems a lot like the approach Spain took to decentralise after Franco.)
Essex county council will vote next week to scrap May's county council elections and hold a Mayoral and unitary election in 2026 as the next Essex local elections if Southend and Thurrock unitaries agree.
In which case there will never be a county or district election in Essex again
They'd be voting to request the elections be postponed by the Government - Essex CC does not have the power to scrap its own elections.
I'm a bit doubtful permission will be given in these cases. Creation of unitary authorities is no straightforward matter simply in terms of the logistics, employment implications and so on. It seems to me a bit unlikely that a new unitary would be ready to begin by May 2026 - probably more like 2027, in which case a newly elected County Council would be best to steer it.
It's not impossible by any means, but I'm a bit sceptical these requests will be granted.
No the government has told Essex if it votes to move to unitaries it can scrap the county council elections in May and hold a Mayoral and unitary election in 2026 or by 2028 at latest
I think he's right though - we were in Chester over the weekend and I don't remember seeing a queue of taxis at 10pm on a Saturday night waiting for passengers...
I've said it before - we are now very much in a situation of have and have nots - hardly surprising when the not particular fancy meal for 2 in Chester was £95...
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
As bad as United are, we know why we’re bad. Citeh? In a state of complete collapse, without any clue what has gone wrong. And thus no idea how to stop their descent.
It is remarkable that at United this collapse is not unexpected in view of the disastrous management and transfers policies of Amorin's predecessors, but City is astonishing and supposedly due to an ageing team and total loss of confidence
I don’t get it. City have an amazing squad. An amazing manager. A tried and tested way of managing club and players to deliver success.
Nothing has changed. They were sensational for the first few months of the season. And then something fell apart and now they play like they are being managed by Rooney.
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
As bad as United are, we know why we’re bad. Citeh? In a state of complete collapse, without any clue what has gone wrong. And thus no idea how to stop their descent.
It is remarkable that at United this collapse is not unexpected in view of the disastrous management and transfers policies of Amorin's predecessors, but City is astonishing and supposedly due to an ageing team and total loss of confidence
I don’t get it. City have an amazing squad. An amazing manager. A tried and tested way of managing club and players to deliver success.
Nothing has changed. They were sensational for the first few months of the season. And then something fell apart and now they play like they are being managed by Rooney.
I think it is the story of the Premiership so far, and it is even possible both teams will not be in Europe next year
People look at him and say “bad” but they look at every other option and say “worse”.
I think he and Labour get re-elected. And a replacement leader will likely have more charisma.
People see this as Reform vs Labour, which is bad for the Tories and good for Sir Keir.
You have overlooked one thing in your complacent and partisan analysis. He is a twat. The public now knows this. Boris Johnson was/is a twat. Eventually twatishness catches up with people. The Rachel Reeves budget will catch up with this economically illiterate numpties. When it does it will be economic illiteracy + twatishness = bye bye Labour.
Tragically we may end up with Putin apologising Farage as PM. The cycle of twatishness will continue.
The honours list just gets me so annoyed. It is so random and rewards so many for just doing their job. The differentiation between awards based upon status also annoys me eg a captain of industry gets a knighthood, whereas the dinner lady gets an MBE.
I remember two agents doing the same job for years at elections. One was a volunteer and the other paid. The paid one got at OBE, the unpaid one nothing. Madness.
The only awards should be for gallantry and voluntary service. Just those. And the level of award should be commensurate with your bravery or service and not their social standing.
The only ones worth noting this time around are for 4 of the subpostmasters who have been campaigning to right this injustice.
Even with those it is tinged with the belief that this is state palming them off with baubles instead of giving them proper timely compensation.
Anne Reid, the actress, should have got more than a CBE. One of our finest actresses.
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
It was 48% now it is 0%
Leave and Remain aren't a thing anymore, its over and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
There may be some who think its an idea to rejoin, but that's a completely different question and there's no credible movement for it and so there's no serious measurements on the support of that, or what it would mean with compromises that would have to be made.
You may wish it so, but it isn't.
Tories expect voters to bear electoral grudges like the cut to WFP but forget the fiasco of Brexit? Not likely!
Yes, you can just see the overriding passion to reverse Brexit in the
[checks notes]
...tanking of Labour's poll ratings and rise of the Farage Party?
Remember that that the fall in their ratings is a result of their own voters changing their mind. Your continued dislike of them hasn't contributed to it.
Perhaps part of the reason is because they won't entertain the idea of a closer relationship with Europe, even while Labour voters are very keen on the idea.
Or we could just look at the polls that ask questions on Europe directly, rather than trying to interpret statistical entrails.
72% of '24 Labour voters think there should be another referendum in the next 5 years, and 78% would vote rejoin.
I don't think it's particularly high on anyone's agenda but the underlying appetite is there.
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
As far as I know Dyson who owns £550 million of previously tax exempt assets and who is outraged he should now have to pay a very favourable rate on them, has not done a single day's work mucking out cows.
While a bit of a cheap shot, have you considered taking up medicine yourself? There are plenty of vacancies.
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
As bad as United are, we know why we’re bad. Citeh? In a state of complete collapse, without any clue what has gone wrong. And thus no idea how to stop their descent.
It is remarkable that at United this collapse is not unexpected in view of the disastrous management and transfers policies of Amorin's predecessors, but City is astonishing and supposedly due to an ageing team and total loss of confidence
It's not a real crisis until they hire "Big" Sam Allardyce. Rock bottom will be Neil Warnock.
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
I have been on leave since Christmas Day. I am also now part time.
I support closing the Agricultural tax dodge as It is now widely abused, with the majority of agricultural land sales being now to non-farmers is bad for both the national finances and for farmers.
I would restrict Agricultural Relief at zero percent to those where the deceased made the majority of their income over the previous decade from farming on that particular land. Genuine family farmers would be very happy with that, not least because land would become more affordable.
I also ran a successful private practice for some decades, so have experience of business.
Assuming politics remains as odd as it is up to 2029 with no party over 30, which I personally think it will. Mainly because the tories won't have their house in order still and labour are going to fail to deliver the "I feel things have improved" factor. I expect a hung parliament.
Given that fact it occurred to me that there are two parties which have a concurrence of a major policy plank in their manifesto's. That is right pr....could we see a Lib Dem/Reform coalition on this basis to introduce PR then go back to the country?
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
It was 48% now it is 0%
Leave and Remain aren't a thing anymore, its over and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
There may be some who think its an idea to rejoin, but that's a completely different question and there's no credible movement for it and so there's no serious measurements on the support of that, or what it would mean with compromises that would have to be made.
You may wish it so, but it isn't.
Tories expect voters to bear electoral grudges like the cut to WFP but forget the fiasco of Brexit? Not likely!
Its not about wishes, what I said is simply a matter of fact.
It no more matters if you don't forget Brexit than if you don't forget Covid19 lockdowns, or the Iraq War, or the closure of the mines, or whatever else people have previously held onto.
It doesn't mean it either can or will be reversed. What's done is done.
You are right and Foxy is wrong. The argument against Brexit has been proven - it’s been a shitshow and the polls unequivocally show that people have changed their minds.
But - and it’s a big but - things were also broken for millions of voters *when we were in the EU*. The primary driver for the Leave vote was that the economy was broken and so many towns were dead. Yes, now things are worse but the fix is not status quo ante - a return to being broken.
The red wall. Midlands industrial. Market towns. The east coast. All of these places are desperate and angry. They don’t think Brexit broke them so “they won’t forget what Farage did to them” isn’t a factor.
They have voted Labour. They have voted Tory. They have voted Leave. Nothing has worked. And nobody in the big two parties seem to understand their issues. A yawning chasm that Farage is targeting. He doesn’t have the answers either, but can be shown to listen and in part to understand. And that may be enough.
You’re right, and living in one of those places still I have no doubt reform will make inroads in places like Durham. The offer will be enough. After all when what you have done previously has not worked you have nothing to lose. Especially as it looks like it still won’t work.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
If that is the plan, the execution leaves a fair bit to be desired. Kemi is a fighter, and she is fighting. It's just her choice of battlefields (RefUK membership figures, GB News presenter choices) are dumb.
KB has to realise that she needs to see off Farage before she tackles SKS. Business before pleasure.
If that's her plan, the data in the header shows it's not working. Current Labour and Lib Dem supporters think Badenoch is just as horrible as Farage while almost as many Conservatives prefer him to her. Suggests Conservatives could fall further to Reform with a much smaller fall for Labour.
The problem there is that everyone is making the assumption that Reform and the Toproes are interchangeable.
But most Reform voters are “none of the above” voters - and they aren’t going to be voting Tory for a while because the Tories failed to deliver in 2019
And many Tory voters (and ex-Tory voters like myself) would vote for [almost] absolutely anyone over Farage.
You voted for Labour not the Tories in July and you voted for Farage in the 2019 EU Parliament elections
You still don't get it.
Voting for the 2019 elections was no more about sending people to Parliament than anyone voting for Farage to eat kangaroo anus was.
Westminster is a real election, sending people to a real Parliament to serve a full term. Its a totally different matter.
I despise Farage, always have done.
I voted in the euro elections to send someone to the EP. However short a time.
I think he's right though - we were in Chester over the weekend and I don't remember seeing a queue of taxis at 10pm on a Saturday night waiting for passengers...
I've said it before - we are now very much in a situation of have and have nots - hardly surprising when the not particular fancy meal for 2 in Chester was £95...
I did go out on the Friday before xmas expecting the pub and curry house to be rammed beyond belief as in previous years. But no. Busy, but not crazy.
The honours list just gets me so annoyed. It is so random and rewards so many for just doing their job. The differentiation between awards based upon status also annoys me eg a captain of industry gets a knighthood, whereas the dinner lady gets an MBE.
I remember two agents doing the same job for years at elections. One was a volunteer and the other paid. The paid one got at OBE, the unpaid one nothing. Madness.
The only awards should be for gallantry and voluntary service. Just those. And the level of award should be commensurate with your bravery or service and not their social standing.
The only ones worth noting this time around are for 4 of the subpostmasters who have been campaigning to right this injustice.
Even with those it is tinged with the belief that this is state palming them off with baubles instead of giving them proper timely compensation.
Anne Reid, the actress, should have got more than a CBE. One of our finest actresses.
Mornin' All! Sorry to be so late but I've just had a hospital appointment; told to arrive 0730h, departmental booking in 0845, actually seen and treated 1000.
In the waiting area, 10 of us, the TV was on and the news of the sub-postmasters honours came through. Universal approval, but also universal 'they should be compensated by now!
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
Ask about rejoin requiring the Euro and free movement to rejoin the EU and that 60% becomes 30%
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
If that is the plan, the execution leaves a fair bit to be desired. Kemi is a fighter, and she is fighting. It's just her choice of battlefields (RefUK membership figures, GB News presenter choices) are dumb.
KB has to realise that she needs to see off Farage before she tackles SKS. Business before pleasure.
If that's her plan, the data in the header shows it's not working. Current Labour and Lib Dem supporters think Badenoch is just as horrible as Farage while almost as many Conservatives prefer him to her. Suggests Conservatives could fall further to Reform with a much smaller fall for Labour.
No on present polls Reform are gaining redwall and ex industrial hard leave Labour seats Kemi can't reach while she was wins back rural seats and soft Leave town and suburban seats the Tories lost to Labour in July
It wasn't clear from my post but I think we're talking about different things. There has been a significant increase since the election in C+R vote share back to its norm of slightly less than half. I think that's what you're picking up.
The figures above reflect the changed composition of party support. Assuming Farage is not happy with a third place vote share and a fourth or lower place seat share, and is out for the kill, the figures above suggest most of that extra support will come from the Conservatives and not Labour. We would need adjust the Calculus accordingly.
The curious thing is that Red Wall Reform is a dog that barks a lot, but (so far) rarely bites. No seats in 2019. Even in 2024, the seats they won all had elected Conservatives in the past... Seats the Conservatives would expect to win in a reasonable year.
There's even something skewy in the models used by Professor Curtice (whom God preserve). The 2024 exit poll had a dozen or so Grimtown North seats falling to the Faragists... and they didn't.
That might change, with enough votes it has to change, but it's odd.
I suppose if you previously voted Johnson on the levelling up promise that he did absolutely nothing to fulfill, you would not have held that against Labour at the time. Same might not be the case the next time.
Alternatively it could be Farage is not the messiah he claims to be. I would prefer not to run the experiment but it looks like we don't get the choice.
The honours list just gets me so annoyed. It is so random and rewards so many for just doing their job. The differentiation between awards based upon status also annoys me eg a captain of industry gets a knighthood, whereas the dinner lady gets an MBE.
I remember two agents doing the same job for years at elections. One was a volunteer and the other paid. The paid one got at OBE, the unpaid one nothing. Madness.
The only awards should be for gallantry and voluntary service. Just those. And the level of award should be commensurate with your bravery or service and not their social standing.
Even if your changes are made, the results will still be arbitrary. Why that scout leader and that lollipop lady and not the thousands of others?
I don't care about the honours list and suspect most voters agree with me that it is a bit of fun twice a year or so. I'm not in line for a gong; I don't mix with the rich and famous or the great and the good, and that is the case for almost everyone in the country.
To that end, I have no interest in reforming it, abolishing it, or changing all the names. I look at the headlines, nod or tut, and then get on with my life until the King's birthday list.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
If that is the plan, the execution leaves a fair bit to be desired. Kemi is a fighter, and she is fighting. It's just her choice of battlefields (RefUK membership figures, GB News presenter choices) are dumb.
KB has to realise that she needs to see off Farage before she tackles SKS. Business before pleasure.
If that's her plan, the data in the header shows it's not working. Current Labour and Lib Dem supporters think Badenoch is just as horrible as Farage while almost as many Conservatives prefer him to her. Suggests Conservatives could fall further to Reform with a much smaller fall for Labour.
No on present polls Reform are gaining redwall and ex industrial hard leave Labour seats Kemi can't reach while she was wins back rural seats and soft Leave town and suburban seats the Tories lost to Labour in July
It wasn't clear from my post but I think we're talking about different things. There has been a significant increase since the election in C+R vote share back to its norm of slightly less than half. I think that's what you're picking up.
The figures above reflect the changed composition of party support. Assuming Farage is not happy with a third place vote share and a fourth or lower place seat share, and is out for the kill, the figures above suggest most of that extra support will come from the Conservatives and not Labour. We would need adjust the Calculus accordingly.
The curious thing is that Red Wall Reform is a dog that barks a lot, but (so far) rarely bites. No seats in 2019. Even in 2024, the seats they won all had elected Conservatives in the past... Seats the Conservatives would expect to win in a reasonable year.
There's even something skewy in the models used by Professor Curtice (whom God preserve). The 2024 exit poll had a dozen or so Grimtown North seats falling to the Faragists... and they didn't.
That might change, with enough votes it has to change, but it's odd.
We shall see how Levelling Up goes over the next few years, but that is clearly what Rayner is aiming for.
Reform may well get some councillors, but what on earth are they going to have as local government policy? I suspect the majority will get bored of it very quickly, like former UKIP councillors did.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
If that is the plan, the execution leaves a fair bit to be desired. Kemi is a fighter, and she is fighting. It's just her choice of battlefields (RefUK membership figures, GB News presenter choices) are dumb.
KB has to realise that she needs to see off Farage before she tackles SKS. Business before pleasure.
If that's her plan, the data in the header shows it's not working. Current Labour and Lib Dem supporters think Badenoch is just as horrible as Farage while almost as many Conservatives prefer him to her. Suggests Conservatives could fall further to Reform with a much smaller fall for Labour.
No on present polls Reform are gaining redwall and ex industrial hard leave Labour seats Kemi can't reach while she was wins back rural seats and soft Leave town and suburban seats the Tories lost to Labour in July
It wasn't clear from my post but I think we're talking about different things. There has been a significant increase since the election in C+R vote share back to its norm of slightly less than half. I think that's what you're picking up.
The figures above reflect the changed composition of party support. Assuming Farage is not happy with a third place vote share and a fourth or lower place seat share, and is out for the kill, the figures above suggest most of that extra support will come from the Conservatives and not Labour. We would need adjust the Calculus accordingly.
The curious thing is that Red Wall Reform is a dog that barks a lot, but (so far) rarely bites. No seats in 2019. Even in 2024, the seats they won all had elected Conservatives in the past... Seats the Conservatives would expect to win in a reasonable year.
There's even something skewy in the models used by Professor Curtice (whom God preserve). The 2024 exit poll had a dozen or so Grimtown North seats falling to the Faragists... and they didn't.
That might change, with enough votes it has to change, but it's odd.
The MoreinCommon MRP poll on Sunday had redwall Labour seats from Llanelli to Hull, Stoke to Burnley and Bolsover to Blyth falling to Reform now
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
Most of that is nonsense. But it is interesting that the very richest doctors needed a special tax concession on their pensions. Because they had hit maximum pension.
The real question is, is Labour’s loss in voteshare because voters have gone permanently or is it because they are waiting for something to happen? My view is that Labour will be back up above 30% no trouble if they show delivery within a year.
I suspect you are right in your assumption but I suspect they will struggle to do that within 12 months, especially with the Trumpdozer in the White House and whatever economic games he plays
The honours list just gets me so annoyed. It is so random and rewards so many for just doing their job. The differentiation between awards based upon status also annoys me eg a captain of industry gets a knighthood, whereas the dinner lady gets an MBE.
I remember two agents doing the same job for years at elections. One was a volunteer and the other paid. The paid one got at OBE, the unpaid one nothing. Madness.
The only awards should be for gallantry and voluntary service. Just those. And the level of award should be commensurate with your bravery or service and not their social standing.
The only ones worth noting this time around are for 4 of the subpostmasters who have been campaigning to right this injustice.
Even with those it is tinged with the belief that this is state palming them off with baubles instead of giving them proper timely compensation.
Anne Reid, the actress, should have got more than a CBE. One of our finest actresses.
Mornin' All! Sorry to be so late but I've just had a hospital appointment; told to arrive 0730h, departmental booking in 0845, actually seen and treated 1000.
In the waiting area, 10 of us, the TV was on and the news of the sub-postmasters honours came through. Universal approval, but also universal 'they should be compensated by now!
The slow motion on the compensation is a magnificent example of Blobism.
The problem is the Tories have just had 14 years in Downing Street so it almost doesn't matter what Badenoch says/does right now, even if she says exactly the right thing the public wants to hear it is met with a thought of "well why didn't you do that in office then?"
Four years is a long-time to the next election though, so Badenoch needs to be seriously reflecting on what could be done better/differently and why the Tories should be back in Downing Street and what they would do. Not worrying about Twitter spats or soundbites.
Some reflection that perhaps Starmer should have done more of to be better prepared than he is today.
She also needs to move away from oppositionism to a coherent platform.
Yet she is pledged to reverse VAT on schools, restore the agricultural tax dodge and WFP, keep the Triple Lock, increase defence spending etc.
If she is serious about small government and tax cuts she needs to be setting out broad themes at least. She needs to let pensioners know that the featherbedding is over.
No she knows her core vote unlike you
Doubling down on your core vote is a recipe for losing elections by a landslide.
You need swing voters and core vote to win. You need your core vote to survive though, lose both and your party goes extinct
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
You're generally able to make more money in association football, raising the value of your brand and so forth by... being good on the pitch (Qualifying for the top European competitions and so on) ?
Being awful does not get you first draft pick of the youngsters !
To the question does anyone support Kemi, I most certainly am and frankly the critics of her are, as I said yesterday, not her immediate audience
I do not often agree with @Dura_Ace but he is correct in saying her approach should be to take on Farage and questions on Reforms membership numbers are fair, as are his predominant appearances on Question Time and GBNews
It is less than 6 months since she became leader and in that time Starmer and Reeves have cratered in spectacular style, and as the government of the day they dominate the media attention leaving little left for the opposition to grab headlines, and that also includes Ed Davey
The membership and mps seem content with her presently, and she has plenty of time to develop a policy platform and to be fair Mel Stride has already questioned the affordability of the triple lock
I expect her to lead into the next GE, unless someone is elected in a by election who could be perceived a better choice as I do not see anyone in the current conservative mps
Never mind, mark me down as a conservative satisfied with Kemi
Big G will vote Conservative?
Hold the front page!
A question was asked does anyone support Kemi and I gave my honest opinion
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
Foxy does seem to be on here very regularly seeing as we are told all doctors are "massively overworked". He also calls inheritance tax relief for farmers and family business owners a "tax dodge". I am sure most people who use this "tax dodge" would love to have a featherbedded unsackable job-for-life and a pension scheme that pays out more than double what the average taxpayer earns like he and his colleagues suck from the public titty.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
As far as I know Dyson who owns £550 million of previously tax exempt assets and who is outraged he should now have to pay a very favourable rate on them, has not done a single day's work mucking out cows.
While a bit of a cheap shot, have you considered taking up medicine yourself? There are plenty of vacancies.
Without giving away too much I have worked alongside the medical profession all my life. Most (like all professions) are decent people but they have a level of entitlement that is extraordinary. The BMA sucks the lifeblood out of the NHS and the UK media and political class touches the forelock to them on a daily basis. No-one ever points out on the BBC that doctors wage increases are paid at the expense of other "more lowly" clinical professionals. Doctors will bleat that they have to take a long time to get qualified, well bully for them. They are the greedy fat cats of the public sector. The BMA needs to be careful that one day that when the fawning of the media becomes more questioning the public might start to realise that doctors are no more virtuous than many other professionals and a lot more greedy.
As for Dyson, he could be dealt with very differently to family farms, and pointing to hyperbolic examples does not make a good reason for bullying those who have family farming businesses and other types of family businesses. It was just pure Labour spite, with lies and exaggerations thrown in to justify it.
I think he's right though - we were in Chester over the weekend and I don't remember seeing a queue of taxis at 10pm on a Saturday night waiting for passengers...
I've said it before - we are now very much in a situation of have and have nots - hardly surprising when the not particular fancy meal for 2 in Chester was £95...
I did go out on the Friday before xmas expecting the pub and curry house to be rammed beyond belief as in previous years. But no. Busy, but not crazy.
Anecdata?
In West London, the good places are moderately busy, but not rammed. Looks like a slowish Christmas period.
I note the RMT are out on the picket line as Avanti train driver strike today and the 2nd January
If anyone thinks Starmer problems will dissipate, just wait until he and Reeves tells the public sector 2.8% is your max pay rise in 2025
Inflation is much lower now though
It is but expect union uproar over 2.8% and strikes
I did read that some teacher unions were looking at a bigger pay rise and corresponding reduction in pension contributions but the unions are divided on it
His managerial career is one of successive failure.
When will owners realise that just because a person was a good player, it doesn't make them a good manager? It's a completely different skill set.
Yes, unless someone has contacts at a big club and can bring players in on loan (Fergie Jnr at Preston, Super Frankie Lampard at Derby), then it's a waste of time (with ex-England players anyway).
I don't think Lampard is nearly as good as Robbins was but maybe he can attract a few signings.
I think he's right though - we were in Chester over the weekend and I don't remember seeing a queue of taxis at 10pm on a Saturday night waiting for passengers...
I've said it before - we are now very much in a situation of have and have nots - hardly surprising when the not particular fancy meal for 2 in Chester was £95...
I did go out on the Friday before xmas expecting the pub and curry house to be rammed beyond belief as in previous years. But no. Busy, but not crazy.
Anecdata?
It's all Anecdata - but I suspect it's right, going out is getting expensive so people are being careful.
I think he's right though - we were in Chester over the weekend and I don't remember seeing a queue of taxis at 10pm on a Saturday night waiting for passengers...
I've said it before - we are now very much in a situation of have and have nots - hardly surprising when the not particular fancy meal for 2 in Chester was £95...
I did go out on the Friday before xmas expecting the pub and curry house to be rammed beyond belief as in previous years. But no. Busy, but not crazy.
Anecdata?
We were out the Friday before Xmas in Durham and apart from the classy and Charmingly named ‘Fighting Cocks’ being busy, but no more than usual, the place was very quiet.
We tried a new restaurant and also went to a wine bar. Pricey. We don’t do it too often now.
On topic. The interesting choice in the header is Starmer vs Farage in a forced choice.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Starmerism at present, though plenty of time for that to change, but having Farage as the alternative is a great motivator.
Britain is about 60% Remainer, it doesn't want the chief architect of Brexit as PM. Neither does it want a Trump kiss-arse.
No it was 48% Remainer
It was 48%. Now it is 60%.
The Boomers are sliding into their coffins and taking Brexit with them (like everything else they could get their grasping hands on)
Ask about rejoin requiring the Euro and free movement to rejoin the EU and that 60% becomes 30%
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
As bad as United are, we know why we’re bad. Citeh? In a state of complete collapse, without any clue what has gone wrong. And thus no idea how to stop their descent.
It is remarkable that at United this collapse is not unexpected in view of the disastrous management and transfers policies of Amorin's predecessors, but City is astonishing and supposedly due to an ageing team and total loss of confidence
I don’t get it. City have an amazing squad. An amazing manager. A tried and tested way of managing club and players to deliver success.
Nothing has changed. They were sensational for the first few months of the season. And then something fell apart and now they play like they are being managed by Rooney.
You say an amazing manager but the problem with Guardiola is he's facing a situation he's never faced before, so may lack the skills needed to do what needs to be done.
Guardiola is one of the best at taking a good club and making it better, but is he good at taking a worn down/old club and rejuvenating it?
He's never done that before, he's never needed to do so, so now comes across like a rabbit in the headlights.
It's true in all sectors but people can be great managers in some scenarios, but not the right one in others.
Are there any remaining Kemi fans on PB, or is she now universally believed a dud ?
Kemi's plan is to stay quiet for 2-3+ years before she rolls out lots of policy reviews. By that time people will have long made their minds up on her, and the Conservative Party, and they will land totally flat and be completely ignored.
CCHQ wants to communicate that the "quietness" is down to the focus on this and internal Conservative party structures, whereas it's actually down to her passivity and lack of energy and drive.
She doesn't seem to understand the party is like a cornered rat at the moment and needs to fight for its life.
...She - like far too many politicians in all parties - is too fond of repeating old mantras and thinking that what worked in the past will work again if they can only package it right. It won't. There needs to be a proper analysis of what is going wrong now and intelligent thought about the remedies for a different future. We are not in 1979 or 1997 and reheating what sort of worked then is lazy politics. This applies to Starmer too...
A recognition that not a few of our problems result from the engrained beliefs of the Thatcher and Blair eras, and an analysis of what might be done to fix that, is largely lacking in contemporary politics.
To give them a little credit, Labour's planning/housing policies are actually a tentative move in that direction, but there's no much else there.
From my draft manuscript
"There are some functions and duties which only the state can do fairly. Abandoning responsibility for these leads to abuse of power and harm to the vulnerable.........
That exercise and the proper understanding of risks and the state’s obligations to its citizens - to protect them from the exercise of arbitrary unjustified power, to protect them from harm - is the essence of government. It is not one which can be sloughed off on others: either to save money or in the belief that unaccountable private bodies with other interests can or will do the job for them.
Instead, this retreat has led to a state and many of its institutions which have - far too often - failed in many of the state’s basic functions and responsibilities, which have failed to get the basics right, basics which include criminal justice, policing, health, building safety, effective regulation of the financial sector and care for our children.
It has led to a state which - far too often - has forgotten what public service is meant to be, which has treated those it is meant to serve with indifference, contempt and dismissiveness. It has led to a state which has created - or allowed to develop - a climate in which far too many companies and individuals have put their own personal financial, commercial or other interests first, have disregarded the rules and laws and standards of professionalism, integrity, honour and decency, even at the expense of others’ lives.
It has led to a state which too often has itself used every possible avenue to avoid accepting any sort of responsibility or accountability for its actions and has made it acceptable for others (both companies and individuals) to do the same. It has led to a degradation of professional and personal conduct, a tolerance of lies and deception and serious damage to the trust we should have in our public institutions. It has led to a state which fails - until far too late - to admit error, let alone right its mistakes and compensate those it has harmed through its actions."
I am, I know, a broken record on this. But repairing this trust is - for me - the most important task of government. That is why Starmer's inept response over freebies, his broken promises to farmers, even the way they announced the correct decision on WASPI women is damaging. It erodes rather than rebuilds trust. He has time to recover. The Tories don't even seem to see the problem. Reform just moan. The Greens are batshit insane and the Lib Dems are the Waitrose equivalent of Reform - a politer version of "Isn't everything awful".
Comments
If you're voting against something (a protest vote) you don't necessarily have to pro- whatever they're offering so long as you're against what others offer or want to kick other parties. Negativity about Starmer is already pretty high and Badenoch's about as inspiring a prospect as cold gravy.
Also, of course, handy for the Lib Dems.
In which case there will never be a county or district election in Essex again
Hold the front page!
It no more matters if you don't forget Brexit than if you don't forget Covid19 lockdowns, or the Iraq War, or the closure of the mines, or whatever else people have previously held onto.
It doesn't mean it either can or will be reversed. What's done is done.
And Corbyn proved that populist parties can generate very large memberships even when not particularly popular overall. Membership isn't a function of general popularity but of relatively intense support. One problem the Tories have had for a while, since political party membership stopped being a fairly normal social thing, is that very few people are strongly attached to them - and often those that are are not the sort of people who are very helpful to a party. That can be an issue for other parties too but the Tories lack a 'mission' almost as a point of identity (rightly, IMO - the Conservative Party at its best is simply about governing well: what works, what delivers, is what is right).
But Reform does have a mission, or at least claims to and appears to, to those who want it to and those only half-listening. That will draw members, activists and support. Quite probably pretty fractious, inefficient and wasteful activists but they'll be seen and heard and sometimes that's more than half the battle.
Hunt would also have leaked further to Reform than Kemi if maybe gained a few more LDs than she has
What is surprising is that, despite becoming leader at her second attempt, she has been unable to articulate at all what Conservatism means, why she wants to be leader and where she wants to take the party and the country. That's a big failing.
She also lacks charm. Now charm can be overrated (eg Johnson or the hail-fellow-let's-have-a-pint charm of Farage) but a politician - especially a leader - should have some ability to connect, charm, persuade & appear interested in others. She doesn't. She's brittle and seems more interested in getting into silly fights over unimportant matters.
She - like far too many politicians in all parties - is too fond of repeating old mantras and thinking that what worked in the past will work again if they can only package it right. It won't. There needs to be a proper analysis of what is going wrong now and intelligent thought about the remedies for a different future. We are not in 1979 or 1997 and reheating what sort of worked then is lazy politics. This applies to Starmer too.
My overwhelming impression is of someone 10 years younger than she actually is. There is an immaturity there. It will be fatal for her unless she grows up - and fast.
Rooney is reportedly barely involved in training the players and utterly lacks emotional intelligence required to be a good manager.
As you say it is pointless crying over spilt milk and the status quo with the EU is unlikely to change until a manifesto commitment to rejoin wins an election or another referendum is called
But - and it’s a big but - things were also broken for millions of voters *when we were in the EU*. The primary driver for the Leave vote was that the economy was broken and so many towns were dead. Yes, now things are worse but the fix is not status quo ante - a return to being broken.
The red wall. Midlands industrial. Market towns. The east coast. All of these places are desperate and angry. They don’t think Brexit broke them so “they won’t forget what Farage did to them” isn’t a factor.
They have voted Labour. They have voted Tory. They have voted Leave. Nothing has worked. And nobody in the big two parties seem to understand their issues. A yawning chasm that Farage is targeting. He doesn’t have the answers either, but can be shown to listen and in part to understand. And that may be enough.
Priti might be leaking more to the LDs than Kemi is though
He would do far better than any other likely alternative candidate.
Maybe a bit unfair but:
You vote for a big pay rise and are anti Brexit
You are a doctor and a Lib Dem !!!!!!!
I'm a bit doubtful permission will be given in these cases. Creation of unitary authorities is no straightforward matter simply in terms of the logistics, employment implications and so on. It seems to me a bit unlikely that a new unitary would be ready to begin by May 2026 - probably more like 2027, in which case a newly elected County Council would be best to steer it.
It's not impossible by any means, but I'm a bit sceptical these requests will be granted.
After May Farage and Reform might have loads of councils under full control but that looks unlikely to me, two at most would be an achievement. The rest will require coalitions and they will almost always be the junior partner. The maths will be complex. No doubt there will be some "Rainbow" coalitions - Rainbows invariably without any Blue or light Blue elements.
Of course by asking potential members to join now he limits the numbers who will join in the future, another problem.
Kemi is getting a very unfair press at the moment but knocking copy was always the fare from second and third rate commentators. She might not be Margaret Thatcher but in the present climate she doesn't have to be. With an opponent who is turning out to be the worst leader the country has had since James II her main task is to survive.
Which means that, as nature abhors a vcauum, in the particular times we are in, of overwhelming failure of Lab and Con, if that carries on, Reform will do well. How well? No idea.
My current best guess, looking at the relative shares in 2021to now, and current trends, is:
Con lose 600 to 1745
Lab stand still at 1345
LD gain 100 to 688
Green gain 100 to 251
Reform gain 400 to 402
All the smaller parties gain at the expense of Con and Lab. Anti-incumbency.
If this should happen, will Badenoch be in trouble or will there be relief within the Tories that it's not worse?
The honours list just gets me so annoyed. It is so random and rewards so many for just doing their job. The differentiation between awards based upon status also annoys me eg a captain of industry gets a knighthood, whereas the dinner lady gets an MBE.
I remember two agents doing the same job for years at elections. One was a volunteer and the other paid. The paid one got at OBE, the unpaid one nothing. Madness.
The only awards should be for gallantry and voluntary service. Just those. And the level of award should be commensurate with your bravery or service and not their social standing.
The Conservatives have destroyed their "governing well" USP for at least this Parliament, I think.
Can they regain it; might another change of leader help - or would it just be seen as desperation ?
[checks notes]
...tanking of Labour's poll ratings and rise of the Farage Party?
The stadium is falling down. The owners care about money not football. The new investor seems determined to smash everything. The players are crap, or selfish, or misfits, or occasionally ok. A talismanic leader is needed. Tactically brilliant. An expert people manager. Ruthless.
Do it. United vs City in the championship next year.
Say she didn't stand - it would have been Cleverly against Jenrick. Cleverly wins and leads the party to the 2029 election and wins. It's going to be 2034 minimum before there is the next leadership election by which time Kemi is old news...
The way the Rouble/US$ market is going over the past few weeks, it looks as if there’s almost no liquidity in it - so the price keeps edging up until someone throws a large pile of dollars at it.
In other words, the Russian central bank is burning through its foreign currency reserves trying to prop up their own currency. Which usually finishes with a massive devaluation, think Black Wednesday but on steroids.
Top of the list of wishes for 2025, is that the Russian economy collapses. The almost total lack of gas exports from Russia to Europe in the new year should be a good starting point for starving them of hard cash.
Badenoch is nothing more than a placeholder...
To give them a little credit, Labour's planning/housing policies are actually a tentative move in that direction, but there's no much else there.
No one event is responsible for this downfall, but if there were a seminal moment it would be Cameron's failure to prepare for and see through the consequences of whichever way the 2016 referendum vote went. That combination of failure, ineptitude, irresponsibility and power vacuum is perhaps impossible to repair.
That's optimistic.
The figures above reflect the changed composition of party support. Assuming Farage is not happy with a third place vote share and a fourth or lower place seat share, and is out for the kill, the figures above suggest most of that extra support will come from the Conservatives and not Labour. We would need adjust the Calculus accordingly.
Perhaps part of the reason is because they won't entertain the idea of a closer relationship with Europe, even while Labour voters are very keen on the idea.
Voting for the 2019 elections was no more about sending people to Parliament than anyone voting for Farage to eat kangaroo anus was.
Westminster is a real election, sending people to a real Parliament to serve a full term. Its a totally different matter.
I despise Farage, always have done.
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social
·
3h
The worst kind of economic analysis (& journalism) begins with “a taxi driver told me”.
https://bsky.app/profile/duncanweldon.bsky.social/post/3leljxt3lrk2y
Albanian taxi driver?
Wolves +10 points
Spurs + 8
Everton + 8
City + 8
Brighton + 8
United + 7
Ipswich + 7
Leicester +4
Southampton +2
Spurs, City and United diabolical
But in the unlikely scenario of Starmer vs Farage at the next GE, Brexit will loom large. It's Farage's sole achievement, and not a popular one.
Priti really would not have been a good idea. They should have done the obvious and gone for Cleverly who would likely have won the leadership had the MPs not monumentally screwed up. He certainly wouldn't be trailing Starmer in the best PM rankings quite in the way Kemi is. I suspect he may run for London Mayor as I can't imagine much enthusiasm for a fourth term of Sir Sadiq.
I still think Kemi has potential, and could punch through, and we shouldn't write her off just yet.
Yes, I expect Reform to be running few councils after May, though they will gain plenty of councillors and it's not impossible they could gain outright control in some places. They also have the Doncaster and Lincolnshire mayoralties to go at - a task made easier by Labour's refusal to change the voting system for them.
People look at him and say “bad” but they look at every other option and say “worse”.
I think he and Labour get re-elected. And a replacement leader will likely have more charisma.
People see this as Reform vs Labour, which is bad for the Tories and good for Sir Keir.
However short a time.
There's even something skewy in the models used by Professor Curtice (whom God preserve). The 2024 exit poll had a dozen or so Grimtown North seats falling to the Faragists... and they didn't.
That might change, with enough votes it has to change, but it's odd.
The "tax dodgers" in the modern economy are all those in the public sector, most particularly those in the most entitled group; the UK medical profession. Love to see any of them do a full days work on a farm or have the stress of running a family business. Oh, but we should never ever ever criticise the hard working doctorsannurses. They are exempt from any kind of scrutiny or criticism
I've said it before - we are now very much in a situation of have and have nots - hardly surprising when the not particular fancy meal for 2 in Chester was £95...
Nothing has changed. They were sensational for the first few months of the season. And then something fell apart and now they play like they are being managed by Rooney.
Tragically we may end up with Putin apologising Farage as PM. The cycle of twatishness will continue.
Even with those it is tinged with the belief that this is state palming them off with baubles instead of giving them proper timely compensation.
Anne Reid, the actress, should have got more than a CBE. One of our finest actresses.
I don't think it's particularly high on anyone's agenda but the underlying appetite is there.
While a bit of a cheap shot, have you considered taking up medicine yourself? There are plenty of vacancies.
I support closing the Agricultural tax dodge as It is now widely abused, with the majority of agricultural land sales being now to non-farmers is bad for both the national finances and for farmers.
I would restrict Agricultural Relief at zero percent to those where the deceased made the majority of their income over the previous decade from farming on that particular land. Genuine family farmers would be very happy with that, not least because land would become more affordable.
I also ran a successful private practice for some decades, so have experience of business.
Given that fact it occurred to me that there are two parties which have a concurrence of a major policy plank in their manifesto's. That is right pr....could we see a Lib Dem/Reform coalition on this basis to introduce PR then go back to the country?
If anyone thinks Starmer problems will dissipate, just wait until he and Reeves tells the public sector 2.8% is your max pay rise in 2025
Anecdata?
Sorry to be so late but I've just had a hospital appointment; told to arrive 0730h, departmental booking in 0845, actually seen and treated 1000.
In the waiting area, 10 of us, the TV was on and the news of the sub-postmasters honours came through. Universal approval, but also universal 'they should be compensated by now!
Alternatively it could be Farage is not the messiah he claims to be. I would prefer not to run the experiment but it looks like we don't get the choice.
I don't care about the honours list and suspect most voters agree with me that it is a bit of fun twice a year or so. I'm not in line for a gong; I don't mix with the rich and famous or the great and the good, and that is the case for almost everyone in the country.
To that end, I have no interest in reforming it, abolishing it, or changing all the names. I look at the headlines, nod or tut, and then get on with my life until the King's birthday list.
I do have a problem with non-jobs that should not exist, but any job that needs doing should be paid appropriately.
Take it from cutting jobs that do not need doing and cutting the funding for those who aren't working for their income.
Reform may well get some councillors, but what on earth are they going to have as local government policy? I suspect the majority will get bored of it very quickly, like former UKIP councillors did.
Being awful does not get you first draft pick of the youngsters !
As for Dyson, he could be dealt with very differently to family farms, and pointing to hyperbolic examples does not make a good reason for bullying those who have family farming businesses and other types of family businesses. It was just pure Labour spite, with lies and exaggerations thrown in to justify it.
I did read that some teacher unions were looking at a bigger pay rise and corresponding reduction in pension contributions but the unions are divided on it
We tried a new restaurant and also went to a wine bar. Pricey. We don’t do it too often now.
No need for a cab, we got a bus home.
The toon awaits later.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/47997-britons-support-rejoining-the-single-market-even-if-it-means-free-movement
Even a majority of Leavers now want a closer relationship with the EU.
Guardiola is one of the best at taking a good club and making it better, but is he good at taking a worn down/old club and rejuvenating it?
He's never done that before, he's never needed to do so, so now comes across like a rabbit in the headlights.
It's true in all sectors but people can be great managers in some scenarios, but not the right one in others.
Every successful football manager used to play at a high level, almost without exception.
"There are some functions and duties which only the state can do fairly. Abandoning responsibility for these leads to abuse of power and harm to the vulnerable.........
That exercise and the proper understanding of risks and the state’s obligations to its citizens - to protect them from the exercise of arbitrary unjustified power, to protect them from harm - is the essence of government. It is not one which can be sloughed off on others: either to save money or in the belief that unaccountable private bodies with other interests can or will do the job for them.
Instead, this retreat has led to a state and many of its institutions which have - far too often - failed in many of the state’s basic functions and responsibilities, which have failed to get the basics right, basics which include criminal justice, policing, health, building safety, effective regulation of the financial sector and care for our children.
It has led to a state which - far too often - has forgotten what public service is meant to be, which has treated those it is meant to serve with indifference, contempt and dismissiveness. It has led to a state which has created - or allowed to develop - a climate in which far too many companies and individuals have put their own personal financial, commercial or other interests first, have disregarded the rules and laws and standards of professionalism, integrity, honour and decency, even at the expense of others’ lives.
It has led to a state which too often has itself used every possible avenue to avoid accepting any sort of responsibility or accountability for its actions and has made it acceptable for others (both companies and individuals) to do the same. It has led to a degradation of professional and personal conduct, a tolerance of lies and deception and serious damage to the trust we should have in our public institutions. It has led to a state which fails - until far too late - to admit error, let alone right its mistakes and compensate those it has harmed through its actions."
I am, I know, a broken record on this. But repairing this trust is - for me - the most important task of government. That is why Starmer's inept response over freebies, his broken promises to farmers, even the way they announced the correct decision on WASPI women is damaging. It erodes rather than rebuilds trust. He has time to recover. The Tories don't even seem to see the problem. Reform just moan. The Greens are batshit insane and the Lib Dems are the Waitrose equivalent of Reform - a politer version of "Isn't everything awful".
Anyway need to do some work.