At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
They’re not real.
One big barrier, in this country, is the divide between public sector and private sector jobs.
It is very difficult to change between them. Even something as basic as an CV doesn’t transfer.
And talking to people in each - their knowledge of The Other is mostly myths.
Hmm. I changed at 50+. Yes there was a difference, which it took me a while to get used to. And as a youth I worked in a sea-front stall selling candy floss, and lodged in a plasterers house in an industrial town. I think that did give me some understanding. One interesting thought; a few years ago, after retirement, a chap who'd worked as a removal man asked me if I'd ever worked on an hourly basis. I don't think he could conceive of a man with a job like mine ever not working for a monthly salary.
I don’t think SKS will be the PM at the next election but that’s because he will have resigned between now and then. Therefore the next PM will be a Labour MP, I suggest Farage and any Tory are extremely poor value in this market.
The expectations for SKS and Labour are so low that I still believe that if they do anything positive they will be re-elected. It’s rare that governments with majorities like these get ejected after one term. Now I know the last one was but that was really after a string of very unlikely events? With a new leader up against Badenoch (or any other Tory MP), Labour will have a better chance.
I do find the idea of a recession intriguing though. And if that happens, I’ll be betting on Labour to lose.
I think we should be discussing more which of the most likely Labour PMs, has the best chance of winning an election. I’d suggest Streeting or Phillipson. The former has a better chance of re-inventing Blairism for now but the latter looks and sounds working class and has an interesting background.
I still think Dan Jarvis could go for it in the right circumstances.
I think it is well possible that Labour will lose their majority but still form part of the next government. Would the Liberals insist on a new PM as the price of their support? I dont think Streeting can be leader unless he can switch to a safer seat, it seems likely he will lose his next time.
Of the Labour top table - the people Joe Public has heard of - Reeves looks out of it at the moment, Lammy is good but Division 2, Streeting has the seat problem and Phillipson, while charming and OK and female and some sort of Mackem and a sane catholic is not PM calibre. So the field is large and rather unknown.
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
I’m confused. He said that if you work a few shifts at McDonald’s you don’t become working class.
If I worked a few shifts at McDonald’s, would I become working class?
I don’t think it was a very funny joke but I’m struggling to understand what the issue is here. And at any rate if Badenoch had said what you’d said, she’d have got more traction. But saying it was about racism just undermines her entire supposed belief system. I honestly expected more from her.
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Then even less likely that Farage or Badenoch are next PM, and they both remain screaming lays
Why? A new leader isn't going to turn things around. They might be less of a toe curling embarrassment, but the damage is largely done.
The bet is next Prime Minister, not Prime Minister after the next election. Thus, if Starmer does not stay to contest the next election, the next Prime Minister will be a Labour MP.
I'd agree that the value in this market is on the Labour MPs.
Three main scenarios from here:
A. Labour continue to struggle, and push Starmer overboard before GE2029. Next PM is red.
B. Starmer stays on and loses in 2029. Next PM isn't red.
C. Starmer wins in 2028/9 and retires to muted appreciation a couple of years after that. Next PM is red.
I know Labour don't ditch leaders like the Conservatives do, but B doesn't seem that likely. (And the numbers sort of reflect that. Nigel or Kemi combined is under 50% chance, even with the mug punters boost.)
About right I think. Within those boundaries, and allowing for black swans, the next PM race is a 50 horse steeplechase in the mud, not a 6 runner 5 furlong on the flat. Whoever is the favourite should be at longish odds - something like 8/1 or longer. The next PM may be someone we have hardly heard of, it is just possible they are not even in the HoC at this moment. (Miliband D would be easily the best Labour candidate though he is now 59).
Of those outside parliament, Andy Burnham is far and away the most likely. He is generally thought to be doing a good job in Greater Manchester, is authentically Northern and has a lot of support. David Miliband has no infrastructure.
Burnham is utterly shite. He has no political foundations at all.
Just been out to recover one of our bins and in nearly 50 years in our home I have never experienced such violent winds
Sky reporter saying wind speeds upto 93 mph in the Menai Straights, wind speeds here reported at 80mph, and the sea state is unbelievable dangerous
It is expected to last the rest of the day and we are not going anywhere
Ah, so that explains the Merseyside Derby being postponed. I thought the storms were mostly over when that’s clearly not the case. Later matches in Birmingham and Manchester still look like they’re on at the moment.
I doubt it's due to the weather - Everton scared, more likely.
Being as Liverpool is opposite our home across the Irish sea the wind and rain there must be an issue
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
Starmer's point was the absurd assertion by Badenoch that working a few days in MaccieDs made her working class. What is this ludicrous rekindled British obsession with class? If you follow the "joke" through it doesn't demean anyone but Badenoch. She implies he only made such a "joke" because she is black.
If Badenoch is mortally offended and believes Starmer's comment was racially motivated she had every right to demand his resignation. She is the one who feels racially offended, not you.
If Badenoch is going to claim racism every time Starmer takes the piss out of her at PMQs then she is an even worse politician than I thought.
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
I’m confused. He said that if you work a few shifts at McDonald’s you don’t become working class.
If I worked a few shifts at McDonald’s, would I become working class?
I don’t think it was a very funny joke but I’m struggling to understand what the issue is here. And at any rate if Badenoch had said what you’d said, she’d have got more traction. But saying it was about racism just undermines her entire supposed belief system. I honestly expected more from her.
just starmer derangement syndrome
Yes, people who won't suffer any criticisms of Starmer do suffer from Starmer Derangement Syndrome. It's as though they think he's perfect.
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
Starmer's point was the absurd assertion by Badenoch that working a few days in MaccieDs made her working class. What is this ludicrous rekindled British obsession with class? If you follow the "joke" through it doesn't demean anyone but Badenoch. She implies he only made such a "joke" because she is black.
If Badenoch is mortally offended and believes Starmer's comment was racially motivated she had every right to demand his resignation. She is the one who feels racially offended, not you.
If Badenoch is going to claim racism every time Starmer takes the piss out of her at PMQs then she is an even worse politician than I thought.
Sounds like she has a bad case of the Woke Mind Virus.
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
Starmer's point was the absurd assertion by Badenoch that working a few days in MaccieDs made her working class. What is this ludicrous rekindled British obsession with class? If you follow the "joke" through it doesn't demean anyone but Badenoch. She implies he only made such a "joke" because she is black.
If Badenoch is mortally offended and believes Starmer's comment was racially motivated she had every right to demand his resignation. She is the one who feels racially offended, not you.
As a matter of interest, where does the 'working a few days' in McD's come from?
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Then even less likely that Farage or Badenoch are next PM, and they both remain screaming lays
Why? A new leader isn't going to turn things around. They might be less of a toe curling embarrassment, but the damage is largely done.
The bet is next Prime Minister, not Prime Minister after the next election. Thus, if Starmer does not stay to contest the next election, the next Prime Minister will be a Labour MP.
I'd agree that the value in this market is on the Labour MPs.
Three main scenarios from here:
A. Labour continue to struggle, and push Starmer overboard before GE2029. Next PM is red.
B. Starmer stays on and loses in 2029. Next PM isn't red.
C. Starmer wins in 2028/9 and retires to muted appreciation a couple of years after that. Next PM is red.
I know Labour don't ditch leaders like the Conservatives do, but B doesn't seem that likely. (And the numbers sort of reflect that. Nigel or Kemi combined is under 50% chance, even with the mug punters boost.)
About right I think. Within those boundaries, and allowing for black swans, the next PM race is a 50 horse steeplechase in the mud, not a 6 runner 5 furlong on the flat. Whoever is the favourite should be at longish odds - something like 8/1 or longer. The next PM may be someone we have hardly heard of, it is just possible they are not even in the HoC at this moment. (Miliband D would be easily the best Labour candidate though he is now 59).
Of those outside parliament, Andy Burnham is far and away the most likely. He is generally thought to be doing a good job in Greater Manchester, is authentically Northern and has a lot of support. David Miliband has no infrastructure.
Don't you find Burnham to be one of the most annoying politicians anywhere in the UK? Labour need to be looking to the future. I doubt he will get a look in on account of the fact that he is the wrong gender but Darren Jones seems to have Blair's charisma and self assurance but without Blair's dreadful earnestness.
They can save it in the spring with something really interesting and consequential, like nodal pricing for energy, council tax reform or NICs/IT merger. Nothing that has a overall fiscal impact but would reshape the country significantly.
On the coming storm, we seem to be OK here even though the was a bit of noisiness in the night. Most of it seems to have stayed on the moist side of the Pennines.
For the first time in about 25 years I have no trees that could be a real threat, since next door had some major tree work done in the autumn.
On the politics, the Farage lay looks interesting, but time barred.
There were rumours earlier this week of another 'high profile' defection from Con to RefUK. Any news?
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
I’m confused. He said that if you work a few shifts at McDonald’s you don’t become working class.
If I worked a few shifts at McDonald’s, would I become working class?
I don’t think it was a very funny joke but I’m struggling to understand what the issue is here. And at any rate if Badenoch had said what you’d said, she’d have got more traction. But saying it was about racism just undermines her entire supposed belief system. I honestly expected more from her.
just starmer derangement syndrome
Yes, people who won't suffer any criticisms of Starmer do suffer from Starmer Derangement Syndrome. It's as though they think he's perfect.
You're the one making up stories in your head to criticise him.
I don’t think SKS will be the PM at the next election but that’s because he will have resigned between now and then. Therefore the next PM will be a Labour MP, I suggest Farage and any Tory are extremely poor value in this market.
The expectations for SKS and Labour are so low that I still believe that if they do anything positive they will be re-elected. It’s rare that governments with majorities like these get ejected after one term. Now I know the last one was but that was really after a string of very unlikely events? With a new leader up against Badenoch (or any other Tory MP), Labour will have a better chance.
I do find the idea of a recession intriguing though. And if that happens, I’ll be betting on Labour to lose.
I think we should be discussing more which of the most likely Labour PMs, has the best chance of winning an election. I’d suggest Streeting or Phillipson. The former has a better chance of re-inventing Blairism for now but the latter looks and sounds working class and has an interesting background.
I still think Dan Jarvis could go for it in the right circumstances.
I think it is well possible that Labour will lose their majority but still form part of the next government. Would the Liberals insist on a new PM as the price of their support? I dont think Streeting can be leader unless he can switch to a safer seat, it seems likely he will lose his next time.
Of the Labour top table - the people Joe Public has heard of - Reeves looks out of it at the moment, Lammy is good but Division 2, Streeting has the seat problem and Phillipson, while charming and OK and female and some sort of Mackem and a sane catholic is not PM calibre. So the field is large and rather unknown.
You don’t rate Phillipson? I think she’s decent.
Lammy’s previous statements are toxic. It won’t be him.
Other candidates then.
Chris Hopkins formally of YouGov.
Dan Jarvis, army background, “Blue Labour” style.
Keir would be wise to change the rules so that only MPs vote on the leader while they are in office.
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
Starmer's point was the absurd assertion by Badenoch that working a few days in MaccieDs made her working class. What is this ludicrous rekindled British obsession with class? If you follow the "joke" through it doesn't demean anyone but Badenoch. She implies he only made such a "joke" because she is black.
If Badenoch is mortally offended and believes Starmer's comment was racially motivated she had every right to demand his resignation. She is the one who feels racially offended, not you.
As a matter of interest, where does the 'working a few days' in McD's come from?
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
They’re not real.
One big barrier, in this country, is the divide between public sector and private sector jobs.
It is very difficult to change between them. Even something as basic as an CV doesn’t transfer.
And talking to people in each - their knowledge of The Other is mostly myths.
No, that is an artificial construct promoted by some on the right who seem to treat anyone working in the public sector with contempt.
And there's plenty of railway workers transferring from the private to the public sector over the course of this parliament.
Actually, some on the right seem to despise railway workers, whoever they are employed by.
This is an interesting document reportedly just released by the FBI on the drones hovering around New Jersey and Trump's Golf Course, among various other places.
All the usual twitter caveats, but it all has a local bureaucratic banality that sounds somewhat genuine. Reading this, you get the impression that they somehow think they're military-grade drones from abroad, with some sort of very new cloaking technology unknown to the Ameicans.
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
I’m confused. He said that if you work a few shifts at McDonald’s you don’t become working class.
If I worked a few shifts at McDonald’s, would I become working class?
I don’t think it was a very funny joke but I’m struggling to understand what the issue is here. And at any rate if Badenoch had said what you’d said, she’d have got more traction. But saying it was about racism just undermines her entire supposed belief system. I honestly expected more from her.
I agree about Badenoch's response, and I don't agree with it.
But I think Starmer views 'work' and 'working class' oddly. Perhaps because of his own background, he likes to pigeonhole people. I don't know how many hours Badenoch worked at a McDonalds, but it's perfectly possible that she got more understanding of what it is to 'work' at low pay than he ever has.
I'm not working class. But I worked a lot, and associated with, lots of labourers and working-class people when I was a kid, including my dad's employees. It didn't make me working class, but it did give me some level of understanding of the lives and challenges different people have. Without that, I think I'd have much more of a middle-class, and perhaps even 'Tory' outlook.
I think it's her posh sounding accent. It's confused and triggered him, the old numpty.
I still think we’re talking the end of this government five months into office.
Ultimately if people feel better off in 2029 Labour wins otherwise they don’t.
To his credit, SKS has identified immigration as being a big problem for Labour. Unlike the leadership of the party between 2010 and 2020 who just decided to ignore it. But it’s whether he will actually do anything about it that matters. And what success is, I’m still not sure. Does anyone have a number?
I lean SKS loses but for an intelligent site it just seems odd to me that people are saying SKS is finished in December 2024.
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
Starmer's point was the absurd assertion by Badenoch that working a few days in MaccieDs made her working class. What is this ludicrous rekindled British obsession with class? If you follow the "joke" through it doesn't demean anyone but Badenoch. She implies he only made such a "joke" because she is black.
If Badenoch is mortally offended and believes Starmer's comment was racially motivated she had every right to demand his resignation. She is the one who feels racially offended, not you.
As a matter of interest, where does the 'working a few days' in McD's come from?
Badenoch.
A quote? Because I can't find one, and it does seem like an attempt to belittle what she said. If it was just a few days, as opposed to a few days (shifts?) a week for a year or two, then that means very different things.
From (1) "Badenoch, who was born in the UK but spent the first part of her life in Nigeria before returning as a teenager, said her time at the fast food chain helped her understand the life of “single mothers” struggling to make ends meet – insight that might have made her object to the policies enacted by her government that made life harder for the working classes. She said of the job:
There’s a humility there as well. You had to wash toilets, there were no special cleaners coming in. You had to wash toilets, you had to flip burgers, you had to handle money."
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Then even less likely that Farage or Badenoch are next PM, and they both remain screaming lays
Why? A new leader isn't going to turn things around. They might be less of a toe curling embarrassment, but the damage is largely done.
The bet is next Prime Minister, not Prime Minister after the next election. Thus, if Starmer does not stay to contest the next election, the next Prime Minister will be a Labour MP.
I'd agree that the value in this market is on the Labour MPs.
Three main scenarios from here:
A. Labour continue to struggle, and push Starmer overboard before GE2029. Next PM is red.
B. Starmer stays on and loses in 2029. Next PM isn't red.
C. Starmer wins in 2028/9 and retires to muted appreciation a couple of years after that. Next PM is red.
I know Labour don't ditch leaders like the Conservatives do, but B doesn't seem that likely. (And the numbers sort of reflect that. Nigel or Kemi combined is under 50% chance, even with the mug punters boost.)
About right I think. Within those boundaries, and allowing for black swans, the next PM race is a 50 horse steeplechase in the mud, not a 6 runner 5 furlong on the flat. Whoever is the favourite should be at longish odds - something like 8/1 or longer. The next PM may be someone we have hardly heard of, it is just possible they are not even in the HoC at this moment. (Miliband D would be easily the best Labour candidate though he is now 59).
Of those outside parliament, Andy Burnham is far and away the most likely. He is generally thought to be doing a good job in Greater Manchester, is authentically Northern and has a lot of support. David Miliband has no infrastructure.
Don't you find Burnham to be one of the most annoying politicians anywhere in the UK? Labour need to be looking to the future. I doubt he will get a look in on account of the fact that he is the wrong gender but Darren Jones seems to have Blair's charisma and self assurance but without Blair's dreadful earnestness.
In May of this year Burnham won his 3rd term as Mayor of Greater Manchester, with 63% of the vote and won every constituency within it, so clearly has a lot of support.
I am not suggesting that he would be the best choice, but could step down as Mayor in 2028 at the end of this term and be back in Parliament. He is far and away the most likely successor outside parliament, and being outside of parliament does help him look like a new broom, not tainted by Starmer/Reeves.
I think though that I do accept my own biases in that I don’t really care if the PM is a great orator or is somebody I’d like to go to the pub with. So that puts me at a disadvantage in knowing what many think about him.
Just been out to recover one of our bins and in nearly 50 years in our home I have never experienced such violent winds ...
Sheltered life, Big_G. Hurricane Hugo ripped the roof off the old house I honeymooned in on Nevis.
It's not much fun in Wales today, although having seen the aftermath of the hurricane Trump did nothing about during his Presidency in Puerto Rico it is a fairly minor inconvenience.
I don’t think SKS will be the PM at the next election but that’s because he will have resigned between now and then. Therefore the next PM will be a Labour MP, I suggest Farage and any Tory are extremely poor value in this market.
The expectations for SKS and Labour are so low that I still believe that if they do anything positive they will be re-elected. It’s rare that governments with majorities like these get ejected after one term. Now I know the last one was but that was really after a string of very unlikely events? With a new leader up against Badenoch (or any other Tory MP), Labour will have a better chance.
I do find the idea of a recession intriguing though. And if that happens, I’ll be betting on Labour to lose.
I think we should be discussing more which of the most likely Labour PMs, has the best chance of winning an election. I’d suggest Streeting or Phillipson. The former has a better chance of re-inventing Blairism for now but the latter looks and sounds working class and has an interesting background.
I still think Dan Jarvis could go for it in the right circumstances.
I think it is well possible that Labour will lose their majority but still form part of the next government. Would the Liberals insist on a new PM as the price of their support? I dont think Streeting can be leader unless he can switch to a safer seat, it seems likely he will lose his next time.
Of the Labour top table - the people Joe Public has heard of - Reeves looks out of it at the moment, Lammy is good but Division 2, Streeting has the seat problem and Phillipson, while charming and OK and female and some sort of Mackem and a sane catholic is not PM calibre. So the field is large and rather unknown.
While Philipson was brought up in Mackemland, she was born in The Heed. So, despite her iffy accent, she is a Geordie.
"The more worried Labour MPs become about Farage and Reform, the weaker Starmer will be, because he will seem (and is) a deeply imperfect vessel to counter him."
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Then even less likely that Farage or Badenoch are next PM, and they both remain screaming lays
Why? A new leader isn't going to turn things around. They might be less of a toe curling embarrassment, but the damage is largely done.
The bet is next Prime Minister, not Prime Minister after the next election. Thus, if Starmer does not stay to contest the next election, the next Prime Minister will be a Labour MP.
I'd agree that the value in this market is on the Labour MPs.
Three main scenarios from here:
A. Labour continue to struggle, and push Starmer overboard before GE2029. Next PM is red.
B. Starmer stays on and loses in 2029. Next PM isn't red.
C. Starmer wins in 2028/9 and retires to muted appreciation a couple of years after that. Next PM is red.
I know Labour don't ditch leaders like the Conservatives do, but B doesn't seem that likely. (And the numbers sort of reflect that. Nigel or Kemi combined is under 50% chance, even with the mug punters boost.)
About right I think. Within those boundaries, and allowing for black swans, the next PM race is a 50 horse steeplechase in the mud, not a 6 runner 5 furlong on the flat. Whoever is the favourite should be at longish odds - something like 8/1 or longer. The next PM may be someone we have hardly heard of, it is just possible they are not even in the HoC at this moment. (Miliband D would be easily the best Labour candidate though he is now 59).
Of those outside parliament, Andy Burnham is far and away the most likely. He is generally thought to be doing a good job in Greater Manchester, is authentically Northern and has a lot of support. David Miliband has no infrastructure.
Don't you find Burnham to be one of the most annoying politicians anywhere in the UK? Labour need to be looking to the future. I doubt he will get a look in on account of the fact that he is the wrong gender but Darren Jones seems to have Blair's charisma and self assurance but without Blair's dreadful earnestness.
In May of this year Burnham won his 3rd term as Mayor of Greater Manchester, with 63% of the vote and won every constituency within it, so clearly has a lot of support.
I am not suggesting that he would be the best choice, but could step down as Mayor in 2028 at the end of this term and be back in Parliament. He is far and away the most likely successor outside parliament, and being outside of parliament does help him look like a new broom, not tainted by Starmer/Reeves.
You make a good point that he’d be the most likely “change” candidate.
But what are his policies? He’s had so many positions since 2010, he’s like a weathervane. I remember when he was on the right of the party under Brown, then shifted vaguely left when Corbyn appeared and now is seemingly to the left of SKS.
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
Starmer's point was the absurd assertion by Badenoch that working a few days in MaccieDs made her working class. What is this ludicrous rekindled British obsession with class? If you follow the "joke" through it doesn't demean anyone but Badenoch. She implies he only made such a "joke" because she is black.
If Badenoch is mortally offended and believes Starmer's comment was racially motivated she had every right to demand his resignation. She is the one who feels racially offended, not you.
If Badenoch is going to claim racism every time Starmer takes the piss out of her at PMQs then she is an even worse politician than I thought.
They're both a bit rubbish. Which is why the appalling Farage has some sort of chance, as Dura lays out.
"The more worried Labour MPs become about Farage and Reform, the weaker Starmer will be, because he will seem (and is) a deeply imperfect vessel to counter him."
Lewis Goodall
Surely it doesn’t matter who the Labour leader is, if immigration goes down, Reform recedes. Am I over-simplifying this?
I think though that I do accept my own biases in that I don’t really care if the PM is a great orator or is somebody I’d like to go to the pub with. So that puts me at a disadvantage in knowing what many think about him.
I want a competent PM who does the right thing for the country. So far, I'd say Starmer is on the lower side of competent, but he's steadied the boat and is becoming more competent. Until, perhaps, the next snafu. From what we have seen in the past, he is a good administrator.
But that only gets you so far. The country has many problems, and the 'best' solutions will often be hard to sell. Therefore a good PM will be able to sell policies, popular and unpopular. And sadly, that means being a good orator, and thinking they would be nice to meet in person.
That's why the pub test matters. It is why they need to be able to speak well, to convince people that they are correct.
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
I think that, as politician jokes go, Starmer's 007 joke was pretty good.
A lot of jokes involve being insulting, and of course a joke at a fellow politician's expense will be insulting. What was good about it was that it was also self-deprecating. No-one is going to confuse Starmer with 007! A lot of politicians find it hard to laugh at themselves and I wasn't expecting Starmer to be able to.
I still think we’re talking the end of this government five months into office.
Ultimately if people feel better off in 2029 Labour wins otherwise they don’t.
To his credit, SKS has identified immigration as being a big problem for Labour. Unlike the leadership of the party between 2010 and 2020 who just decided to ignore it. But it’s whether he will actually do anything about it that matters. And what success is, I’m still not sure. Does anyone have a number?
I lean SKS loses but for an intelligent site it just seems odd to me that people are saying SKS is finished in December 2024.
It's a desperate attempt to set the narrative. Last thing conservatives want is a rational discussion about how utterly incompetent their government was for the last 14 years and that it'll take 5-10 years turn things round from the totally dysfunctional mess they left everything in. Any tiny improvement from this govt doing something competently stings.
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Then even less likely that Farage or Badenoch are next PM, and they both remain screaming lays
Why? A new leader isn't going to turn things around. They might be less of a toe curling embarrassment, but the damage is largely done.
The bet is next Prime Minister, not Prime Minister after the next election. Thus, if Starmer does not stay to contest the next election, the next Prime Minister will be a Labour MP.
I'd agree that the value in this market is on the Labour MPs.
Three main scenarios from here:
A. Labour continue to struggle, and push Starmer overboard before GE2029. Next PM is red.
B. Starmer stays on and loses in 2029. Next PM isn't red.
C. Starmer wins in 2028/9 and retires to muted appreciation a couple of years after that. Next PM is red.
I know Labour don't ditch leaders like the Conservatives do, but B doesn't seem that likely. (And the numbers sort of reflect that. Nigel or Kemi combined is under 50% chance, even with the mug punters boost.)
About right I think. Within those boundaries, and allowing for black swans, the next PM race is a 50 horse steeplechase in the mud, not a 6 runner 5 furlong on the flat. Whoever is the favourite should be at longish odds - something like 8/1 or longer. The next PM may be someone we have hardly heard of, it is just possible they are not even in the HoC at this moment. (Miliband D would be easily the best Labour candidate though he is now 59).
Of those outside parliament, Andy Burnham is far and away the most likely. He is generally thought to be doing a good job in Greater Manchester, is authentically Northern and has a lot of support. David Miliband has no infrastructure.
Don't you find Burnham to be one of the most annoying politicians anywhere in the UK? Labour need to be looking to the future. I doubt he will get a look in on account of the fact that he is the wrong gender but Darren Jones seems to have Blair's charisma and self assurance but without Blair's dreadful earnestness.
In May of this year Burnham won his 3rd term as Mayor of Greater Manchester, with 63% of the vote and won every constituency within it, so clearly has a lot of support.
I am not suggesting that he would be the best choice, but could step down as Mayor in 2028 at the end of this term and be back in Parliament. He is far and away the most likely successor outside parliament, and being outside of parliament does help him look like a new broom, not tainted by Starmer/Reeves.
His stuff on buses is very good. A public good - so everyone can benefit*, an investment - so boosts growth, and users are primarily from lower income deciles - so improves services for the kind of people Labour cares about most.
It's the kind of policy that brings people together, rather than chopping us up into taxpayers and claimants, public and private sector, white and non-white.
*Including indirectly by reducing congestion for commercial and private drivers
Ms. (Mr?) 88, "Betting markets are usually full of idiots following sheep off a cliff....this is no exception."
In that case, you must be able to offer some value tips contrary to the markets. Any tips you'd care to suggest?
iI am not Shecorns88, but I can let you know that Lab will keep Bootle.
You're welcome.
(narrator: Viewcode has not checked this. Tips can go down as well as up. )
On one of the many pro Farage vox pops on the BBC last week there were plenty of Liverpudlians refusing to blame Johnson, Truss, Sunak, Brexit and COVID for the nation's travails. The entire blame was placed fairly and squarely at Starmer's door. These random Scourers all wanted Farage as PM.
1. My Kemical Romance proves to be as dreadful as first impressions would suggest leading to the tory polling being in the karsi.
2. Starmer becomes a bit less shit and starts doing things, leading to further tory woes.
3. Propelled by Musk's money and GRU social media expertise the Fukkers start to poll ahead of Labour.
4. The tory defections start.
5. Whatever's left of the tory party realise the end is nigh and enter an electoral pact with the Fukkers in which they are the junior party.
6. The Fukkers and their tory underlings win the GE with a MEGA campaign (the hats are blue). Farage is PM. Rejoice at that news. Free Benson & Hedges for the under 14s. Jaguar start making the E-Type again. The ECHR is nothing but a sallow memory.
That's not impossible and would be wildly entertaining, but it's not a 25% chance.
Ironically Rayner would perform far better but she is not the answer either
I see no alternative for Labour than to hope Starmer improves but on the evidence so far I wouldn't hold my breath
Alex Wickham @alexwickham · 2h — Tony Blair ally says there’s a danger PM repeats mistakes of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris by not taking voters with him, risking a Trump-style surge for Farage
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
I think that, as politician jokes go, Starmer's 007 joke was pretty good.
A lot of jokes involve being insulting, and of course a joke at a fellow politician's expense will be insulting. What was good about it was that it was also self-deprecating. No-one is going to confuse Starmer with 007! A lot of politicians find it hard to laugh at themselves and I wasn't expecting Starmer to be able to.
I just am baffled, I thought we were trying to move away from everyone being offended all of the time.
And yet SKS tries to do so and is told he’s being offensive and racist. So why are some people so blatantly partisan about this?
Just been out to recover one of our bins and in nearly 50 years in our home I have never experienced such violent winds ...
Sheltered life, Big_G. Hurricane Hugo ripped the roof off the old house I honeymooned in on Nevis.
Do stay safe, though.
I should correct that statement
I experienced worse in Antarctica and South Georgia and was at sea, but then I have never experienced fear of the sea no matter how high the waves or hurricane force winds
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Then even less likely that Farage or Badenoch are next PM, and they both remain screaming lays
Why? A new leader isn't going to turn things around. They might be less of a toe curling embarrassment, but the damage is largely done.
The bet is next Prime Minister, not Prime Minister after the next election. Thus, if Starmer does not stay to contest the next election, the next Prime Minister will be a Labour MP.
I'd agree that the value in this market is on the Labour MPs.
Three main scenarios from here:
A. Labour continue to struggle, and push Starmer overboard before GE2029. Next PM is red.
B. Starmer stays on and loses in 2029. Next PM isn't red.
C. Starmer wins in 2028/9 and retires to muted appreciation a couple of years after that. Next PM is red.
I know Labour don't ditch leaders like the Conservatives do, but B doesn't seem that likely. (And the numbers sort of reflect that. Nigel or Kemi combined is under 50% chance, even with the mug punters boost.)
About right I think. Within those boundaries, and allowing for black swans, the next PM race is a 50 horse steeplechase in the mud, not a 6 runner 5 furlong on the flat. Whoever is the favourite should be at longish odds - something like 8/1 or longer. The next PM may be someone we have hardly heard of, it is just possible they are not even in the HoC at this moment. (Miliband D would be easily the best Labour candidate though he is now 59).
Of those outside parliament, Andy Burnham is far and away the most likely. He is generally thought to be doing a good job in Greater Manchester, is authentically Northern and has a lot of support. David Miliband has no infrastructure.
Don't you find Burnham to be one of the most annoying politicians anywhere in the UK? Labour need to be looking to the future. I doubt he will get a look in on account of the fact that he is the wrong gender but Darren Jones seems to have Blair's charisma and self assurance but without Blair's dreadful earnestness.
In May of this year Burnham won his 3rd term as Mayor of Greater Manchester, with 63% of the vote and won every constituency within it, so clearly has a lot of support.
I am not suggesting that he would be the best choice, but could step down as Mayor in 2028 at the end of this term and be back in Parliament. He is far and away the most likely successor outside parliament, and being outside of parliament does help him look like a new broom, not tainted by Starmer/Reeves.
His stuff on buses is very good. A public good - so everyone can benefit*, an investment - so boosts growth, and users are primarily from lower income deciles - so improves services for the kind of people Labour cares about most.
It's the kind of policy that brings people together, rather than chopping us up into taxpayers and claimants, public and private sector, white and non-white.
*Including indirectly by reducing congestion for commercial and private drivers
Will we see Reeves ditched at next reshuffle in an attempt to save Starmer. Let her take the blame for the first few months of technocratic nothing and failings?
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
I think that, as politician jokes go, Starmer's 007 joke was pretty good.
A lot of jokes involve being insulting, and of course a joke at a fellow politician's expense will be insulting. What was good about it was that it was also self-deprecating. No-one is going to confuse Starmer with 007! A lot of politicians find it hard to laugh at themselves and I wasn't expecting Starmer to be able to.
Essentially saying "I am not 007" is *not* self-deprecating...
Will we see Reeves ditched at next reshuffle in an attempt to save Starmer. Let her take the blame for the first few months of technocratic nothing and failings?
It's a rough old trade.
But for who? And does that mean ditching policies?
I just can’t see how SKS becomes more popular if he does a U-turn now,
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
Starmer's point was the absurd assertion by Badenoch that working a few days in MaccieDs made her working class. What is this ludicrous rekindled British obsession with class? If you follow the "joke" through it doesn't demean anyone but Badenoch. She implies he only made such a "joke" because she is black.
If Badenoch is mortally offended and believes Starmer's comment was racially motivated she had every right to demand his resignation. She is the one who feels racially offended, not you.
As a matter of interest, where does the 'working a few days' in McD's come from?
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
I’m confused. He said that if you work a few shifts at McDonald’s you don’t become working class.
If I worked a few shifts at McDonald’s, would I become working class?
I don’t think it was a very funny joke but I’m struggling to understand what the issue is here. And at any rate if Badenoch had said what you’d said, she’d have got more traction. But saying it was about racism just undermines her entire supposed belief system. I honestly expected more from her.
just starmer derangement syndrome
Yes, people who won't suffer any criticisms of Starmer do suffer from Starmer Derangement Syndrome. It's as though they think he's perfect.
You're the one making up stories in your head to criticise him.
Will we see Reeves ditched at next reshuffle in an attempt to save Starmer. Let her take the blame for the first few months of technocratic nothing and failings?
It's a rough old trade.
But for who? And does that mean ditching policies?
I just can’t see how SKS becomes more popular if he does a U-turn now,
If he wants to become more popular, I would recommend actually doing things that make people’s lives better.
Even if it means pain in the short term.
Have a vision. Turn that into a plan. Sell the plan to the electorate. That is how Thatcher kept on winning elections. And Blair as well.
Favourite is a bit misleading I'd say in a party system. If Reform win the next election Farage becomes PM. For the Tories, Badenoch seems to be on notice. Jenrick on the sidelines, Tugendhat etc not serving and the colourless Mel Stride as Shadow Chancellor plus Priti vacant Patel at Foreign Affairs. The party looks unsure of itself whilst Reform is Farage's baby. As for Labour, Starmer's successor could be a whole range of people.
Will we see Reeves ditched at next reshuffle in an attempt to save Starmer. Let her take the blame for the first few months of technocratic nothing and failings?
It's a rough old trade.
But for who? And does that mean ditching policies?
I just can’t see how SKS becomes more popular if he does a U-turn now,
If he wants to become more popular, I would recommend actually doing things that make people’s lives better.
Even if it means pain in the short term.
Have a vision. Turn that into a plan. Sell the plan to the electorate. That is how Thatcher kept on winning elections. And Blair as well.
Will we see Reeves ditched at next reshuffle in an attempt to save Starmer. Let her take the blame for the first few months of technocratic nothing and failings?
It's a rough old trade.
If they ditch Reeves it would have to be to implement a different set of policies. I don't think Labour are anywhere close to implementing a different strategy. The current strategy being mainly to bung the NHS a wodge of money and hope for the best.
Will we see Reeves ditched at next reshuffle in an attempt to save Starmer. Let her take the blame for the first few months of technocratic nothing and failings?
It's a rough old trade.
But for who? And does that mean ditching policies?
I just can’t see how SKS becomes more popular if he does a U-turn now,
Whoever replaces her - and you are right it is really not obvious who that would be - will have to ditch the cut to WFA on day one. They also need to be far bolder. They have a massive majority - seize this opportunity to finally sort out local gov finance and council tax for example.
Favourite is a bit misleading I'd say in a party system. If Reform win the next election Farage becomes PM. For the Tories, Badenoch seems to be on notice. Jenrick on the sidelines, Tugendhat etc not serving and the colourless Mel Stride as Shadow Chancellor plus Priti vacant Patel at Foreign Affairs. The party looks unsure of itself whilst Reform is Farage's baby. As for Labour, Starmer's successor could be a whole range of people.
With so many MPs, equal chance to surprise on the upside and the downside.
The Korean conservative fuckers boycotted the vote. Apart from three decent ones.
That shows a degree of democratic contempt which makes you fear they'll have another go.
It didn't succeed this time as the army chief (apparently) defied orders to arrest politicians, and seize the assembly - and issued troops with blanks.
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
I think that, as politician jokes go, Starmer's 007 joke was pretty good.
A lot of jokes involve being insulting, and of course a joke at a fellow politician's expense will be insulting. What was good about it was that it was also self-deprecating. No-one is going to confuse Starmer with 007! A lot of politicians find it hard to laugh at themselves and I wasn't expecting Starmer to be able to.
Essentially saying "I am not 007" is *not* self-deprecating...
Just been out to recover one of our bins and in nearly 50 years in our home I have never experienced such violent winds ...
Sheltered life, Big_G. Hurricane Hugo ripped the roof off the old house I honeymooned in on Nevis.
Do stay safe, though.
I should correct that statement
I experienced worse in Antarctica and South Georgia and was at sea, but then I have never experienced fear of the sea no matter how high the waves or hurricane force winds
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Then even less likely that Farage or Badenoch are next PM, and they both remain screaming lays
Why? A new leader isn't going to turn things around. They might be less of a toe curling embarrassment, but the damage is largely done.
The bet is next Prime Minister, not Prime Minister after the next election. Thus, if Starmer does not stay to contest the next election, the next Prime Minister will be a Labour MP.
I'd agree that the value in this market is on the Labour MPs.
Three main scenarios from here:
A. Labour continue to struggle, and push Starmer overboard before GE2029. Next PM is red.
B. Starmer stays on and loses in 2029. Next PM isn't red.
C. Starmer wins in 2028/9 and retires to muted appreciation a couple of years after that. Next PM is red.
I know Labour don't ditch leaders like the Conservatives do, but B doesn't seem that likely. (And the numbers sort of reflect that. Nigel or Kemi combined is under 50% chance, even with the mug punters boost.)
About right I think. Within those boundaries, and allowing for black swans, the next PM race is a 50 horse steeplechase in the mud, not a 6 runner 5 furlong on the flat. Whoever is the favourite should be at longish odds - something like 8/1 or longer. The next PM may be someone we have hardly heard of, it is just possible they are not even in the HoC at this moment. (Miliband D would be easily the best Labour candidate though he is now 59).
Of those outside parliament, Andy Burnham is far and away the most likely. He is generally thought to be doing a good job in Greater Manchester, is authentically Northern and has a lot of support. David Miliband has no infrastructure.
Don't you find Burnham to be one of the most annoying politicians anywhere in the UK? Labour need to be looking to the future. I doubt he will get a look in on account of the fact that he is the wrong gender but Darren Jones seems to have Blair's charisma and self assurance but without Blair's dreadful earnestness.
In May of this year Burnham won his 3rd term as Mayor of Greater Manchester, with 63% of the vote and won every constituency within it, so clearly has a lot of support.
I am not suggesting that he would be the best choice, but could step down as Mayor in 2028 at the end of this term and be back in Parliament. He is far and away the most likely successor outside parliament, and being outside of parliament does help him look like a new broom, not tainted by Starmer/Reeves.
His stuff on buses is very good. A public good - so everyone can benefit*, an investment - so boosts growth, and users are primarily from lower income deciles - so improves services for the kind of people Labour cares about most.
It's the kind of policy that brings people together, rather than chopping us up into taxpayers and claimants, public and private sector, white and non-white.
*Including indirectly by reducing congestion for commercial and private drivers
When you have a decent bus service in a sector not served by trains, the users start extending into the middle and upper deciles in urban areas, as is well shown by the Edinburgh commuter runs. They'd be even more reliable if it weren't for cars. I really dislike the idiots who persist in queuing for the bypass slip roads even when it's been announced the bypass is u/s, and blocking the radials for the rest of us.
Will we see Reeves ditched at next reshuffle in an attempt to save Starmer. Let her take the blame for the first few months of technocratic nothing and failings?
It's a rough old trade.
But for who? And does that mean ditching policies?
I just can’t see how SKS becomes more popular if he does a U-turn now,
I'm not sure what policies should be ditched. The 'only' one that's been REALLY badly handled is Winter Fuel and the problem with that was that it was going to a lot of people who didn't need it, and to some people whose homes were leaky and cold, but who couldn't, or wouldn't, do anything about it. Reeves tried to do something about the first category by keeping it for those on Pension Credit ..... poorer pensioners ..... but didn't cover the second category. Maybe Burnham could produce a suitable scheme!
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Well in a speech in America Kemi was tacitly calling for Starmer's head because of his vicious racial attack on her.during his Pinewood snoozefest. (The MacDonalds vicious racial attack).
Starmer's McDonald's comment wasn't racist, but it was also a poor joke, and an insult. Not just to her, but everyone else who works at McDonalds.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
Starmer's point was the absurd assertion by Badenoch that working a few days in MaccieDs made her working class. What is this ludicrous rekindled British obsession with class? If you follow the "joke" through it doesn't demean anyone but Badenoch. She implies he only made such a "joke" because she is black.
If Badenoch is mortally offended and believes Starmer's comment was racially motivated she had every right to demand his resignation. She is the one who feels racially offended, not you.
As a matter of interest, where does the 'working a few days' in McD's come from?
Reporting has suggested a fortnight. Irrespective of days worked, remember Trump only worked in MaccieDs for five minutes and captured the zeitgeist, it is her assertion that raises an eyebrow The problem was she claimed working in MacDonalds made her working class which is arrant nonsense.
Her most recent point is Starmer is a racist for attacking her personally in any capacity. Entitled white man attacks black lady is her irrefutable point.
Just been out to recover one of our bins and in nearly 50 years in our home I have never experienced such violent winds ...
Sheltered life, Big_G. Hurricane Hugo ripped the roof off the old house I honeymooned in on Nevis.
Do stay safe, though.
I should correct that statement
I experienced worse in Antarctica and South Georgia and was at sea, but then I have never experienced fear of the sea no matter how high the waves or hurricane force winds
I think though that I do accept my own biases in that I don’t really care if the PM is a great orator or is somebody I’d like to go to the pub with. So that puts me at a disadvantage in knowing what many think about him.
I want a competent PM who does the right thing for the country. So far, I'd say Starmer is on the lower side of competent, but he's steadied the boat and is becoming more competent. Until, perhaps, the next snafu. From what we have seen in the past, he is a good administrator.
But that only gets you so far. The country has many problems, and the 'best' solutions will often be hard to sell. Therefore a good PM will be able to sell policies, popular and unpopular. And sadly, that means being a good orator, and thinking they would be nice to meet in person.
That's why the pub test matters. It is why they need to be able to speak well, to convince people that they are correct.
Ideally, we would have a better PM than Starmer, sure. But the logic that saw him win internally in 2020 and nationally in July still holds. There's nobody out there who looks better (sorry, Kemi, sorry, Nigel) and he remains acceptable, under the circumstances.
Will we see Reeves ditched at next reshuffle in an attempt to save Starmer. Let her take the blame for the first few months of technocratic nothing and failings?
It's a rough old trade.
But for who? And does that mean ditching policies?
I just can’t see how SKS becomes more popular if he does a U-turn now,
Whoever replaces her - and you are right it is really not obvious who that would be - will have to ditch the cut to WFA on day one. They also need to be far bolder. They have a massive majority - seize this opportunity to finally sort out local gov finance and council tax for example.
My gut feeling with the WFA, is they will tweak it next year or just cancel the cut as you said.
But I have to be honest, I accept it’s not popular but I find it hard to disagree with this policy. I mean, why were so many people getting it?
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Then even less likely that Farage or Badenoch are next PM, and they both remain screaming lays
Why? A new leader isn't going to turn things around. They might be less of a toe curling embarrassment, but the damage is largely done.
The bet is next Prime Minister, not Prime Minister after the next election. Thus, if Starmer does not stay to contest the next election, the next Prime Minister will be a Labour MP.
I'd agree that the value in this market is on the Labour MPs.
Three main scenarios from here:
A. Labour continue to struggle, and push Starmer overboard before GE2029. Next PM is red.
B. Starmer stays on and loses in 2029. Next PM isn't red.
C. Starmer wins in 2028/9 and retires to muted appreciation a couple of years after that. Next PM is red.
I know Labour don't ditch leaders like the Conservatives do, but B doesn't seem that likely. (And the numbers sort of reflect that. Nigel or Kemi combined is under 50% chance, even with the mug punters boost.)
About right I think. Within those boundaries, and allowing for black swans, the next PM race is a 50 horse steeplechase in the mud, not a 6 runner 5 furlong on the flat. Whoever is the favourite should be at longish odds - something like 8/1 or longer. The next PM may be someone we have hardly heard of, it is just possible they are not even in the HoC at this moment. (Miliband D would be easily the best Labour candidate though he is now 59).
Of those outside parliament, Andy Burnham is far and away the most likely. He is generally thought to be doing a good job in Greater Manchester, is authentically Northern and has a lot of support. David Miliband has no infrastructure.
Don't you find Burnham to be one of the most annoying politicians anywhere in the UK? Labour need to be looking to the future. I doubt he will get a look in on account of the fact that he is the wrong gender but Darren Jones seems to have Blair's charisma and self assurance but without Blair's dreadful earnestness.
In May of this year Burnham won his 3rd term as Mayor of Greater Manchester, with 63% of the vote and won every constituency within it, so clearly has a lot of support.
I am not suggesting that he would be the best choice, but could step down as Mayor in 2028 at the end of this term and be back in Parliament. He is far and away the most likely successor outside parliament, and being outside of parliament does help him look like a new broom, not tainted by Starmer/Reeves.
His stuff on buses is very good. A public good - so everyone can benefit*, an investment - so boosts growth, and users are primarily from lower income deciles - so improves services for the kind of people Labour cares about most.
It's the kind of policy that brings people together, rather than chopping us up into taxpayers and claimants, public and private sector, white and non-white.
*Including indirectly by reducing congestion for commercial and private drivers
When you have a decent bus service in a sector not served by trains, the users start extending into the middle and upper deciles in urban areas, as is well shown by the Edinburgh commuter runs. They'd be even more reliable if it weren't for cars. I really dislike the idiots who persist in queuing for the bypass slip roads even when it's been announced the bypass is u/s, and blocking the radials for the rest of us.
Bus services require a critical mass of people to allow a frequent enough service that people will use it.
A regular 10 service every 10 minutes and people just turn up and go, anything beyond about 15 minutes results in people having to think about it and passes some potential customers to using their car.
Ms. (Mr?) 88, "Betting markets are usually full of idiots following sheep off a cliff....this is no exception."
In that case, you must be able to offer some value tips contrary to the markets. Any tips you'd care to suggest?
iI am not Shecorns88, but I can let you know that Lab will keep Bootle.
You're welcome.
(narrator: Viewcode has not checked this. Tips can go down as well as up. )
On one of the many pro Farage vox pops on the BBC last week there were plenty of Liverpudlians refusing to blame Johnson, Truss, Sunak, Brexit and COVID for the nation's travails. The entire blame was placed fairly and squarely at Starmer's door. These random Scourers all wanted Farage as PM.
Five years is a very long time in politics but Farage becoming PM does have the feel of a terrible inevitability at the moment.
Another 'victory' for social media. What a disastrous invention that has been.
The collapse of the Assad regime in the south is gathering pace. Retreat to a more easily defensible line makes sense, but at some point you have to stop retreating and start defending.
If immigration came down to say 200,000 a year is that enough to demonstrate progress?
No, progress means negative net migration.
Negative net migration is going to be impossible. Step 1 for that would be training enough doctors and nurses so that the NHS didn't need to import them and that has a 10 year lead time..
Will we see Reeves ditched at next reshuffle in an attempt to save Starmer. Let her take the blame for the first few months of technocratic nothing and failings?
It's a rough old trade.
But for who? And does that mean ditching policies?
I just can’t see how SKS becomes more popular if he does a U-turn now,
I'm not sure what policies should be ditched. The 'only' one that's been REALLY badly handled is Winter Fuel and the problem with that was that it was going to a lot of people who didn't need it, and to some people whose homes were leaky and cold, but who couldn't, or wouldn't, do anything about it. Reeves tried to do something about the first category by keeping it for those on Pension Credit ..... poorer pensioners ..... but didn't cover the second category. Maybe Burnham could produce a suitable scheme!
Means testing is the problem, because it costs, and DWP and HMRC are almost totally disconnected from each other. The SNP are aiming to bring in a two tier compromise, but that has yet to be voted in (and Slab et al could bring the Holyrood government down anyway depending on the budget voting).
More evidence here, in terms of local administrative banality, that the authorities in NJ don't believe the drones to be pranksters, and so possibly think that they're some type of very advanced Chinese, or Russian, military drones. Local authority press conference here https://x.com/Grail_Whale/status/1865253242340356448
Civil servants are furious with Starmer for this attack on them, and feel they’ve kept show on road in difficult circumstances over recent years. “There is a mood that we should pull the plug on him” said one. It is no coincidence therefore that Starmer has just made a statement about how much he loves Whitehall. This feels another unforced error
You know what, the Tories really had a point on the Civil Service.
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Then even less likely that Farage or Badenoch are next PM, and they both remain screaming lays
Why? A new leader isn't going to turn things around. They might be less of a toe curling embarrassment, but the damage is largely done.
The bet is next Prime Minister, not Prime Minister after the next election. Thus, if Starmer does not stay to contest the next election, the next Prime Minister will be a Labour MP.
I'd agree that the value in this market is on the Labour MPs.
Three main scenarios from here:
A. Labour continue to struggle, and push Starmer overboard before GE2029. Next PM is red.
B. Starmer stays on and loses in 2029. Next PM isn't red.
C. Starmer wins in 2028/9 and retires to muted appreciation a couple of years after that. Next PM is red.
I know Labour don't ditch leaders like the Conservatives do, but B doesn't seem that likely. (And the numbers sort of reflect that. Nigel or Kemi combined is under 50% chance, even with the mug punters boost.)
About right I think. Within those boundaries, and allowing for black swans, the next PM race is a 50 horse steeplechase in the mud, not a 6 runner 5 furlong on the flat. Whoever is the favourite should be at longish odds - something like 8/1 or longer. The next PM may be someone we have hardly heard of, it is just possible they are not even in the HoC at this moment. (Miliband D would be easily the best Labour candidate though he is now 59).
Of those outside parliament, Andy Burnham is far and away the most likely. He is generally thought to be doing a good job in Greater Manchester, is authentically Northern and has a lot of support. David Miliband has no infrastructure.
Don't you find Burnham to be one of the most annoying politicians anywhere in the UK? Labour need to be looking to the future. I doubt he will get a look in on account of the fact that he is the wrong gender but Darren Jones seems to have Blair's charisma and self assurance but without Blair's dreadful earnestness.
In May of this year Burnham won his 3rd term as Mayor of Greater Manchester, with 63% of the vote and won every constituency within it, so clearly has a lot of support.
I am not suggesting that he would be the best choice, but could step down as Mayor in 2028 at the end of this term and be back in Parliament. He is far and away the most likely successor outside parliament, and being outside of parliament does help him look like a new broom, not tainted by Starmer/Reeves.
His stuff on buses is very good. A public good - so everyone can benefit*, an investment - so boosts growth, and users are primarily from lower income deciles - so improves services for the kind of people Labour cares about most.
It's the kind of policy that brings people together, rather than chopping us up into taxpayers and claimants, public and private sector, white and non-white.
*Including indirectly by reducing congestion for commercial and private drivers
When you have a decent bus service in a sector not served by trains, the users start extending into the middle and upper deciles in urban areas, as is well shown by the Edinburgh commuter runs. They'd be even more reliable if it weren't for cars. I really dislike the idiots who persist in queuing for the bypass slip roads even when it's been announced the bypass is u/s, and blocking the radials for the rest of us.
Bus services require a critical mass of people to allow a frequent enough service that people will use it.
A regular 10 service every 10 minutes and people just turn up and go, anything beyond about 15 minutes results in people having to think about it and passes some potential customers to using their car.
Not so much if parking is an issue, which it has been in Edinburgh all my life, and much more so in recent decades.
He desperately needs an Alistair Campbell, someone who can keep everyone on message and decide what the media talk about. It’s more difficult now than it was 25 years ago, as the media landscape is now so much fragmented than in the early days of Blair.
Will we see Reeves ditched at next reshuffle in an attempt to save Starmer. Let her take the blame for the first few months of technocratic nothing and failings?
It's a rough old trade.
But for who? And does that mean ditching policies?
I just can’t see how SKS becomes more popular if he does a U-turn now,
I'm not sure what policies should be ditched. The 'only' one that's been REALLY badly handled is Winter Fuel and the problem with that was that it was going to a lot of people who didn't need it, and to some people whose homes were leaky and cold, but who couldn't, or wouldn't, do anything about it. Reeves tried to do something about the first category by keeping it for those on Pension Credit ..... poorer pensioners ..... but didn't cover the second category. Maybe Burnham could produce a suitable scheme!
Means testing is the problem, because it costs, and DWP and HMRC are almost totally disconnected from each other. The SNP are aiming to bring in a two tier compromise, but that has yet to be voted in (and Slab et al could bring the Holyrood government down anyway depending on the budget voting).
Ironically Rayner would perform far better but she is not the answer either
I see no alternative for Labour than to hope Starmer improves but on the evidence so far I wouldn't hold my breath
Alex Wickham @alexwickham · 2h — Tony Blair ally says there’s a danger PM repeats mistakes of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris by not taking voters with him, risking a Trump-style surge for Farage
If immigration came down to say 200,000 a year is that enough to demonstrate progress?
Absolutely not. Barry, 63, from Hartlepool who looks like a shaven pated Eric von Stroheim clad in head to foot Adidas wants net negative immigration and he wants to see and feel the difference on the litter strewn streets of the festering crap hole in which he lives.
Will we see Reeves ditched at next reshuffle in an attempt to save Starmer. Let her take the blame for the first few months of technocratic nothing and failings?
It's a rough old trade.
But for who? And does that mean ditching policies?
I just can’t see how SKS becomes more popular if he does a U-turn now,
I'm not sure what policies should be ditched. The 'only' one that's been REALLY badly handled is Winter Fuel and the problem with that was that it was going to a lot of people who didn't need it, and to some people whose homes were leaky and cold, but who couldn't, or wouldn't, do anything about it. Reeves tried to do something about the first category by keeping it for those on Pension Credit ..... poorer pensioners ..... but didn't cover the second category. Maybe Burnham could produce a suitable scheme!
Means testing is the problem, because it costs, and DWP and HMRC are almost totally disconnected from each other. The SNP are aiming to bring in a two tier compromise, but that has yet to be voted in (and Slab et al could bring the Holyrood government down anyway depending on the budget voting).
DWP and HMRC are understaffed.
Quite! But DWP won't even issue P60s and have that weird way of accounting for State Pension for income tax purposes ... so no way can one reliably get taxable income info one way or another.
It’s a mad pointless exercise predicting GEs four years out but that’s what we were here for on PB. Mad pointless exercises in prediction. My go is, GE 2028:
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Then even less likely that Farage or Badenoch are next PM, and they both remain screaming lays
Why? A new leader isn't going to turn things around. They might be less of a toe curling embarrassment, but the damage is largely done.
The bet is next Prime Minister, not Prime Minister after the next election. Thus, if Starmer does not stay to contest the next election, the next Prime Minister will be a Labour MP.
I'd agree that the value in this market is on the Labour MPs.
Three main scenarios from here:
A. Labour continue to struggle, and push Starmer overboard before GE2029. Next PM is red.
B. Starmer stays on and loses in 2029. Next PM isn't red.
C. Starmer wins in 2028/9 and retires to muted appreciation a couple of years after that. Next PM is red.
I know Labour don't ditch leaders like the Conservatives do, but B doesn't seem that likely. (And the numbers sort of reflect that. Nigel or Kemi combined is under 50% chance, even with the mug punters boost.)
About right I think. Within those boundaries, and allowing for black swans, the next PM race is a 50 horse steeplechase in the mud, not a 6 runner 5 furlong on the flat. Whoever is the favourite should be at longish odds - something like 8/1 or longer. The next PM may be someone we have hardly heard of, it is just possible they are not even in the HoC at this moment. (Miliband D would be easily the best Labour candidate though he is now 59).
Of those outside parliament, Andy Burnham is far and away the most likely. He is generally thought to be doing a good job in Greater Manchester, is authentically Northern and has a lot of support. David Miliband has no infrastructure.
Don't you find Burnham to be one of the most annoying politicians anywhere in the UK? Labour need to be looking to the future. I doubt he will get a look in on account of the fact that he is the wrong gender but Darren Jones seems to have Blair's charisma and self assurance but without Blair's dreadful earnestness.
In May of this year Burnham won his 3rd term as Mayor of Greater Manchester, with 63% of the vote and won every constituency within it, so clearly has a lot of support.
I am not suggesting that he would be the best choice, but could step down as Mayor in 2028 at the end of this term and be back in Parliament. He is far and away the most likely successor outside parliament, and being outside of parliament does help him look like a new broom, not tainted by Starmer/Reeves.
His stuff on buses is very good. A public good - so everyone can benefit*, an investment - so boosts growth, and users are primarily from lower income deciles - so improves services for the kind of people Labour cares about most.
It's the kind of policy that brings people together, rather than chopping us up into taxpayers and claimants, public and private sector, white and non-white.
*Including indirectly by reducing congestion for commercial and private drivers
When you have a decent bus service in a sector not served by trains, the users start extending into the middle and upper deciles in urban areas, as is well shown by the Edinburgh commuter runs. They'd be even more reliable if it weren't for cars. I really dislike the idiots who persist in queuing for the bypass slip roads even when it's been announced the bypass is u/s, and blocking the radials for the rest of us.
Bus services require a critical mass of people to allow a frequent enough service that people will use it.
A regular 10 service every 10 minutes and people just turn up and go, anything beyond about 15 minutes results in people having to think about it and passes some potential customers to using their car.
Not so much if parking is an issue, which it has been in Edinburgh all my life, and much more so in recent decades.
Even when we lived in Edinburgh in the 1960s we rarely took the car into the city but used the buses
If immigration came down to say 200,000 a year is that enough to demonstrate progress?
Absolutely not. Barry, 63, from Hartlepool who looks like a shaven pated Eric von Stroheim clad in head to foot Adidas wants net negative immigration and he wants to see and feel the difference on the litter strewn streets of the festering crap hole in which he lives.
Only the Fukkers will deliver that.
I hesitate to sit in Hartlepool 'Spoons and argue with Barry but who is going to clean said streets? Or work in the hospitals .
Civil servants are furious with Starmer for this attack on them, and feel they’ve kept show on road in difficult circumstances over recent years. “There is a mood that we should pull the plug on him” said one. It is no coincidence therefore that Starmer has just made a statement about how much he loves Whitehall. This feels another unforced error
You know what, the Tories really had a point on the Civil Service.
They may feel unhappy with what he said but that comment is outrageous and makes me feel ashamed to be a civil servant.
If immigration came down to say 200,000 a year is that enough to demonstrate progress?
That will only work if they managed to build the infrastructure for a population increase of far more than 200k
We have a deficit of 8 million homes in the U.K., for example.
So what should the number be? 0?
I’m not asking what would practically work, I’m asking what would SKS need to do to be perceived positively on immigration, or is that your point?
What you need is a plan to close the gap, and make up the deficit.
“Starmer announces 20 year plan.
Each year house building will be increased. Each year training of medical staff increased. Etc etc. This will continue until occupancy of properties in the U.K. falls to 90% of stock, numbers of doctors and nurses reach x per thousand.”
Then deliver the Green Shoots before the next election.
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
Then even less likely that Farage or Badenoch are next PM, and they both remain screaming lays
Why? A new leader isn't going to turn things around. They might be less of a toe curling embarrassment, but the damage is largely done.
The bet is next Prime Minister, not Prime Minister after the next election. Thus, if Starmer does not stay to contest the next election, the next Prime Minister will be a Labour MP.
I'd agree that the value in this market is on the Labour MPs.
Three main scenarios from here:
A. Labour continue to struggle, and push Starmer overboard before GE2029. Next PM is red.
B. Starmer stays on and loses in 2029. Next PM isn't red.
C. Starmer wins in 2028/9 and retires to muted appreciation a couple of years after that. Next PM is red.
I know Labour don't ditch leaders like the Conservatives do, but B doesn't seem that likely. (And the numbers sort of reflect that. Nigel or Kemi combined is under 50% chance, even with the mug punters boost.)
About right I think. Within those boundaries, and allowing for black swans, the next PM race is a 50 horse steeplechase in the mud, not a 6 runner 5 furlong on the flat. Whoever is the favourite should be at longish odds - something like 8/1 or longer. The next PM may be someone we have hardly heard of, it is just possible they are not even in the HoC at this moment. (Miliband D would be easily the best Labour candidate though he is now 59).
Of those outside parliament, Andy Burnham is far and away the most likely. He is generally thought to be doing a good job in Greater Manchester, is authentically Northern and has a lot of support. David Miliband has no infrastructure.
Don't you find Burnham to be one of the most annoying politicians anywhere in the UK? Labour need to be looking to the future. I doubt he will get a look in on account of the fact that he is the wrong gender but Darren Jones seems to have Blair's charisma and self assurance but without Blair's dreadful earnestness.
In May of this year Burnham won his 3rd term as Mayor of Greater Manchester, with 63% of the vote and won every constituency within it, so clearly has a lot of support.
I am not suggesting that he would be the best choice, but could step down as Mayor in 2028 at the end of this term and be back in Parliament. He is far and away the most likely successor outside parliament, and being outside of parliament does help him look like a new broom, not tainted by Starmer/Reeves.
His stuff on buses is very good. A public good - so everyone can benefit*, an investment - so boosts growth, and users are primarily from lower income deciles - so improves services for the kind of people Labour cares about most.
It's the kind of policy that brings people together, rather than chopping us up into taxpayers and claimants, public and private sector, white and non-white.
*Including indirectly by reducing congestion for commercial and private drivers
When you have a decent bus service in a sector not served by trains, the users start extending into the middle and upper deciles in urban areas, as is well shown by the Edinburgh commuter runs. They'd be even more reliable if it weren't for cars. I really dislike the idiots who persist in queuing for the bypass slip roads even when it's been announced the bypass is u/s, and blocking the radials for the rest of us.
Bus services require a critical mass of people to allow a frequent enough service that people will use it.
A regular 10 service every 10 minutes and people just turn up and go, anything beyond about 15 minutes results in people having to think about it and passes some potential customers to using their car.
Agree. Any bus service that requires consultation of a timetable is a failure, and missing your bus during commuting times should never leave you more than 10 minutes late for work.
That's why I advocate a big bang approach to buses - none of this piecemeal additional service here and there. Have the bravery to go all in on a fully comprehensive network.
Laying Nigel Farage at these odds may look like easy money, but perhaps no better than investing in an index tracker. And if Starmer secured a second term, doubtful whether it would keep up with inflation.
KEIR STARMER’S COMPLEX MENU OF PROMISES Two Priorities…
Three Foundations …
Five Missions…….
Six First Steps…….
Six Milestones…….
OMG it’s like one of those mad books of medieval theology where they talk about the 3rd level of semi-demons, in the 6th circle of Hell. Tedious stupid bureaucratic complexity for the sake of it because the writer is 1. Making it all up and 2. Loves playing with different coloured pens
Comments
And as a youth I worked in a sea-front stall selling candy floss, and lodged in a plasterers house in an industrial town.
I think that did give me some understanding.
One interesting thought; a few years ago, after retirement, a chap who'd worked as a removal man asked me if I'd ever worked on an hourly basis. I don't think he could conceive of a man with a job like mine ever not working for a monthly salary.
If he needs a human skidmark, Damian McBride is already back in government.
You're welcome.
(narrator: Viewcode has not checked this. Tips can go down as well as up.
They can save it in the spring with something really interesting and consequential, like nodal pricing for energy, council tax reform or NICs/IT merger. Nothing that has a overall fiscal impact but would reshape the country significantly.
On the coming storm, we seem to be OK here even though the was a bit of noisiness in the night. Most of it seems to have stayed on the moist side of the Pennines.
For the first time in about 25 years I have no trees that could be a real threat, since next door had some major tree work done in the autumn.
On the politics, the Farage lay looks interesting, but time barred.
There were rumours earlier this week of another 'high profile' defection from Con to RefUK. Any news?
Lammy’s previous statements are toxic. It won’t be him.
Other candidates then.
Chris Hopkins formally of YouGov.
Dan Jarvis, army background, “Blue Labour” style.
Keir would be wise to change the rules so that only MPs vote on the leader while they are in office.
https://news.sky.com/story/starmers-mcdonalds-joke-would-be-called-racist-if-made-by-a-tory-kemi-badenoch-claims-13267983
Hurricane Hugo ripped the roof off the old house I honeymooned in on Nevis.
Do stay safe, though.
And there's plenty of railway workers transferring from the private to the public sector over the course of this parliament.
Actually, some on the right seem to despise railway workers, whoever they are employed by.
All the usual twitter caveats, but it all has a local bureaucratic banality that sounds somewhat genuine. Reading this, you get the impression that they somehow think they're military-grade drones from abroad, with some sort of very new cloaking technology
unknown to the Ameicans.
Interesting.
https://x.com/uapsauce/status/1865312844272566731
It's confused and triggered him, the old numpty.
Ultimately if people feel better off in 2029 Labour wins otherwise they don’t.
To his credit, SKS has identified immigration as being a big problem for Labour. Unlike the leadership of the party between 2010 and 2020 who just decided to ignore it. But it’s whether he will actually do anything about it that matters. And what success is, I’m still not sure. Does anyone have a number?
I lean SKS loses but for an intelligent site it just seems odd to me that people are saying SKS is finished in December 2024.
From (1) "Badenoch, who was born in the UK but spent the first part of her life in Nigeria before returning as a teenager, said her time at the fast food chain helped her understand the life of “single mothers” struggling to make ends meet – insight that might have made her object to the policies enacted by her government that made life harder for the working classes. She said of the job:
There’s a humility there as well. You had to wash toilets, there were no special cleaners coming in. You had to wash toilets, you had to flip burgers, you had to handle money."
Which sounds much more than 'a few days'
(1) https://theconversation.com/can-kemi-badenoch-claim-to-have-become-working-class-while-working-in-mcdonalds-and-why-would-she-want-to-240638
I am not suggesting that he would be the best choice, but could step down as Mayor in 2028 at the end of this term and be back in Parliament. He is far and away the most likely successor outside parliament, and being outside of parliament does help him look like a new broom, not tainted by Starmer/Reeves.
"The more worried Labour MPs become about Farage and Reform, the weaker Starmer will be, because he will seem (and is) a deeply imperfect vessel to counter him."
Lewis Goodall
But what are his policies? He’s had so many positions since 2010, he’s like a weathervane. I remember when he was on the right of the party under Brown, then shifted vaguely left when Corbyn appeared and now is seemingly to the left of SKS.
What does he believe?
Which is why the appalling Farage has some sort of chance, as Dura lays out.
But that only gets you so far. The country has many problems, and the 'best' solutions will often be hard to sell. Therefore a good PM will be able to sell policies, popular and unpopular. And sadly, that means being a good orator, and thinking they would be nice to meet in person.
That's why the pub test matters. It is why they need to be able to speak well, to convince people that they are correct.
A lot of jokes involve being insulting, and of course a joke at a fellow politician's expense will be insulting. What was good about it was that it was also self-deprecating. No-one is going to confuse Starmer with 007! A lot of politicians find it hard to laugh at themselves and I wasn't expecting Starmer to be able to.
📊 Lab 26% (-1) | Cons 23% (-2) | Lib Dems 11% (-1) | Reform 24% (+3) | Greens 8% (+1) | SNP 2% (=) | Others 6% (=)
👥 1644 surveyed
🔎 5-6 Dec 2024 | +/- 28 Nov
https://x.com/techneuk/status/1865357130972233816
Certainly feels like a trend now.
Last thing conservatives want is a rational discussion about how utterly incompetent their government was for the last 14 years and that it'll take 5-10 years turn things round from the totally dysfunctional mess they left everything in. Any tiny improvement from this govt doing something competently stings.
It's the kind of policy that brings people together, rather than chopping us up into taxpayers and claimants, public and private sector, white and non-white.
*Including indirectly by reducing congestion for commercial and private drivers
@alexwickham
·
2h
— Tony Blair ally says there’s a danger PM repeats mistakes of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris by not taking voters with him, risking a Trump-style surge for Farage
Yep.
And yet SKS tries to do so and is told he’s being offensive and racist. So why are some people so blatantly partisan about this?
I experienced worse in Antarctica and South Georgia and was at sea, but then I have never experienced fear of the sea no matter how high the waves or hurricane force winds
Anything else?
It's a rough old trade.
I just can’t see how SKS becomes more popular if he does a U-turn now,
Be careful you don't suffer from SDS yourself...
Even if it means pain in the short term.
Have a vision. Turn that into a plan. Sell the plan to the electorate. That is how Thatcher kept on winning elections. And Blair as well.
We have a deficit of 8 million homes in the U.K., for example.
That shows a degree of democratic contempt which makes you fear they'll have another go.
It didn't succeed this time as the army chief (apparently) defied orders to arrest politicians, and seize the assembly - and issued troops with blanks.
I’m not asking what would practically work, I’m asking what would SKS need to do to be perceived positively on immigration, or is that your point?
Reeves tried to do something about the first category by keeping it for those on Pension Credit ..... poorer pensioners ..... but didn't cover the second category. Maybe Burnham could produce a suitable scheme!
Her most recent point is Starmer is a racist for attacking her personally in any capacity. Entitled white man attacks black lady is her irrefutable point.
But I have to be honest, I accept it’s not popular but I find it hard to disagree with this policy. I mean, why were so many people getting it?
A regular 10 service every 10 minutes and people just turn up and go, anything beyond about 15 minutes results in people having to think about it and passes some potential customers to using their car.
Another 'victory' for social media. What a disastrous invention that has been.
Labour 302
Con 156
LD 72
Ref 69
#justabitoffun
Civil servants are furious with Starmer for this attack on them, and feel they’ve kept show on road in difficult circumstances over recent years. “There is a mood that we should pull the plug on him” said one. It is no coincidence therefore that Starmer has just made a statement about how much he loves Whitehall. This feels another unforced error
You know what, the Tories really had a point on the Civil Service.
I do not expect immigration to fall below 300,000 under any government
However Starmer's real test is stopping the boats and if they keep coming then he will have a real problem
Only the Fukkers will deliver that.
What is stopping you from moving to Russia?
This post has 288K views and has appeared in my feed despite me muting the user, tell me the algorithm isn’t broken.
Reform: 33
Con: 27
Lab: 25
LDs: 13
Green: 5
SNP: 2
Result: a right wing coalition govt with the Tories as JUNIOR partners
To be careful it is Peston so you never know.
“Starmer announces 20 year plan.
Each year house building will be increased. Each year training of medical staff increased. Etc etc. This will continue until occupancy of properties in the U.K. falls to 90% of stock, numbers of doctors and nurses reach x per thousand.”
Then deliver the Green Shoots before the next election.
That's why I advocate a big bang approach to buses - none of this piecemeal additional service here and there. Have the bravery to go all in on a fully comprehensive network.
KEIR STARMER’S COMPLEX MENU OF PROMISES
Two Priorities…
Three Foundations …
Five Missions…….
Six First Steps…….
Six Milestones…….
OMG it’s like one of those mad books of medieval theology where they talk about the 3rd level of semi-demons, in the 6th circle of Hell. Tedious stupid bureaucratic complexity for the sake of it because the writer is 1. Making it all up and 2. Loves playing with different coloured pens
Disastrous