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Nigel Farage is now the favourite to be the next Prime Minister – politicalbetting.com
Nigel Farage is now the favourite to be the next Prime Minister – politicalbetting.com
Yesterday I said there was a chance that Nigel Farage could soon replace Kemi Badenoch as the favourite to be our next Prime Minister and lo and behold it has happened within twenty-four hours.
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How is Storm Darragh treating you?
All was quiet until about 3.00am when the storm arrived
Battering the area and the sea looks very rough and dangerous
Wind speeds of 85+ mph at Aberdaron and 80mph here in Llandudno
We do have some shelter from this wind direction living by the Little Orme but we are certainly not going out today nor are our neighbours by the looks of it
Many buildings and trees will be damaged but hopefully everyone is being sensible and staying inside and not putting ar risk rescue services
Looks like most train services in Wales are at a standstill
But something is clearly going on. Interesting titbit in John Oxley's latest piece
Indeed, I’ve heard that ahead of May’s elections, they are paying campaign managers roughly double what CCHQ offer.
https://www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk/p/fights-on-the-right
(The whole piece is good on the need for the Conservatives to explain why they shouldn't just lie back and let Reform win on the right.)
Also- what caused the shift yesterday? Badenoch may be a bit of a difference, but her speech in America wasn't that bad.
We are in the midst of a Western European style realignment in voter loyalties at GEs, with a more coherent left / left-green bloc and a new right and I don't expect that to dissipate, but it needs more for Nigel to go over the top.
1. Martin Baxter - Reform have to kick on a way beyond where they are now to be even the second largest party.
2. Youth quake: The most successful European new right have a broad based youth quake on their side. Nigel has made no progress with young women and the legacy and association of Brexit will remain a bit of a drag anchor even among amti-woke but qualified men.
3. Reform / Competence: Most successful new right parties have had some sort of renewal. Nigel is unreformed and leads a rabble who are likely to squabble and fall out, and he is not the owner of a brand like the GOP. NR in France strain to show they have changed, FdI usurped Lega as the principle party of the new right by a judicious mix of new populism whilst claiming their heredity to the steady, serious mantle that AN had built over the years. (I've said before, if the Tories do tack right, they should also strain to re-claim an old fashioned Tory competence mantle, learning hard from the FdI, and contrasting themselves with the Reform
circus).
1. My Kemical Romance proves to be as dreadful as first impressions would suggest leading to the tory polling being in the karsi.
2. Starmer becomes a bit less shit and starts doing things, leading to further tory woes.
3. Propelled by Musk's money and GRU social media expertise the Fukkers start to poll ahead of Labour.
4. The tory defections start.
5. Whatever's left of the tory party realise the end is nigh and enter an electoral pact with the Fukkers in which they are the junior party.
6. The Fukkers and their tory underlings win the GE with a MEGA campaign (the hats are blue). Farage is PM. Rejoice at that news. Free Benson & Hedges for the under 14s. Jaguar start making the E-Type again. The ECHR is nothing but a sallow memory.
That's not impossible and would be wildly entertaining, but it's not a 25% chance.
So far the decline in support for the old two parties in the UK has been gradual, rather than sudden, as they're both shored up by our voting system.
It's quite possible that the election just gone mght in retrospect become seen as a further big step toward the breakup of the two party monopoly; disguised because the voting system turned Labour's relatively low third share of the vote into two thirds of the seats.
At the risk of being proved wrong (any columnist’s worst nightmare), I predict that Starmer’s own personality will not get him to the end of this Parliament.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/12/06/im-beginning-to-think-keir-starmer-will-not-survive/
Whether those MPs are capable of being ministers or not is very much a secondary concern.
Always loved going up the hill round the corner and in to Rhos-On- Sea as a kid...
Great memories
Stay safe!
I'd agree that the value in this market is on the Labour MPs.
Reform may be able to charge 5000 boneheads a tenner to enjoy the nostalgia of a "Nuremberg Style Rally" and £5 a pop to join 100,000 other bone heads allegedly....
The funs stops for them though at the point they have
No formal structure
Internecine warfare between Habid and Farage and with Lowe getting increasingly restless
Money does NOT but elections in the UK
UK voters do not want and will not vote to become the 51st state
They won't vote for 3 day a week Kemi, definitely not for 2 days a week Nigel.
The beer swilling cigarette puffing chosen one may well be dead of heart / lung / liver damage soon anyway!....god forbid he gets in any more planes flying banners.
I do confidently predict a TRUMP style staged assasination attempt on him though around Easter time...just in time for the May elections - but of course FACTS show that since July 4th 2024 they have won precisely how many Council seats??..
Betting markets are usually full of idiots following sheep off a cliff....this is no exception.
In that case, you must be able to offer some value tips contrary to the markets. Any tips you'd care to suggest?
And they have won 5 seats but look away if you support labour
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1864827343958630848?t=OhJYn3PzCHjgvSkf_zcqNg&s=19
We were all worried about you, not that you'd give a shit, of course, but we were.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/cx2673xvvy2o
A while ago now, but I thought he came across well when he ran Manor.
However, the voters gave Labour a landslide majority, despite their misgivings about Labour and Starmer, because FPTP meant that they were the available instrument for ejecting an incumbent Tory government. The same applies in reverse. If the voters decide at GE2029 that the overriding imperative is to eject the incumbent government, then that is mainly going to mean voting Tory to make that happen.
We can already see that to some extent in the polls and the local by-elections. The scenario that most likely leads to a Reform PM is one where the Labour government is re-elected in 2028, and Reform positions itself as the principal opposition for the election after that.
There are, of course, scenarios which would yield a Reform PM earlier than that, involving a split in the Tories, large-scale defections to Reform, etc, but I wouldn't rate any of that as being the most likely single scenario.
I suspect however that Trump crashes the World economy and incumbents everywhere will pay. Ironically that shoos Trump fanbois Nigel into No 10. Although I could be wrong and of course net beneficiaries of the Trump boom will be incumbents around the World. Is that a squadron of pigs I see flying through the gale force winds?
The #NobelPrize in Physics 2024 for Hopfield & Hinton turns out to be a Nobel Prize for plagiarism. They republished methodologies developed in #Ukraine and #Japan by Ivakhnenko and Amari in the 1960s & 1970s, as well as other techniques, without citing the original inventors. None of the important algorithms for modern AI were created by Hopfield & Hinton.
Today I am releasing a detailed tech report on this [NOB]: https://people.idsia.ch/~juergen/physics-nobel-2024-plagiarism.html
https://x.com/SchmidhuberAI/status/1865310820856393929
Farage is clearly much too short, and I've bet accordingly. The long-term nature of the bet and the fact that even the dullest of banks pay you something now on your savings rather constrains my stake though. (Hats off to Farage fans if they've realised this and hence pushed their man into the limelight quite cheaply)
A. Labour continue to struggle, and push Starmer overboard before GE2029. Next PM is red.
B. Starmer stays on and loses in 2029. Next PM isn't red.
C. Starmer wins in 2028/9 and retires to muted appreciation a couple of years after that. Next PM is red.
I know Labour don't ditch leaders like the Conservatives do, but B doesn't seem that likely. (And the numbers sort of reflect that. Nigel or Kemi combined is under 50% chance, even with the mug punters boost.)
Iran apparently seeming to test a medium-range ballistic missile today, reminds me of Putin. Don't like the look of it
Starmer might qualify under the first one, I suppose, but since Lansbury hadn't won a stonking majority he didn't have any sort of democratic mandate.
Since 1935, we've had Chamberlain, Home, Heath, Thatcher, Duncan Smith, May, Johnson, Truss removed by anti-leader revolts in the PCP. That's not even including the ones who didn't contest the issue (Cameron, Hague, Major) and ones who found health related excuses (Churchill, Eden, Macmillan).
Not sure which would be worse - whether they think there would be electoral disadvantage to impeaching the president in that situation, or whether they would be right to to think that.
I am predicting a staged attempt... Very Trump like.
But I'm assuming your scenario is where the hallucinogenics might play a role?
One of my fellow students had a Veyron so that was sick. We did 300km/h in it through the desert at 2am. It felt like it was just getting started at that speed. If only it didn't look like an upturned bath.
There are plenty on here who would be persuaded to vote Tory if Putin moved to St George's Hill and became leader of Surrey Conservatives.
Elon Musk ... hammer of the something something something.
"Elon Musk @elonmusk
Defund the ACLU"
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1864310957973098571
Good luck with that one ...
(Aside: Is he a Dr Who fan? There's a Delete Delete Delete meme.)
Meanwhile, barely a breath of wind here in Airedale at the moment. But we are due to get a bit clobbered later and overnight by the looks of it.
A lot depends on Deliverism, in particular on the NHS, but also on levelling up.
I think both Farage and Badenoch are very poor value in this market. I wouldn't be surprised if Farage isn't even in Parliament after the next GE.
1) X was favourable to someone I don’t like
2) Therefore X is fake.
It’s one of the basic rules of the MAGA universe. Along with
3) Y is unfavourable to someone I like
4) Therefore Y is fake.
By using these simple rules, you can make your world view perfectly er…. bulletproof… against any awkwardness in Reality.
The MAGA nutters discrediting conspiracy theories
World class hypocrites
However the organisers have managed to find covered space so, assuming anyone ventures out, all should be well.
Meanwhile I'm supposed to be volunteering at our Museum, which will also provide covered viewing.
On topic, I think .... hope ..... Farage's Parlamentary 'success' is a temporary blip. It certainly would be if the BBC gave him the airtime he deserved, and stopped fawning over him.
Just been out to recover one of our bins and in nearly 50 years in our home I have never experienced such violent winds
Sky reporter saying wind speeds upto 93 mph in the Menai Straights, wind speeds here reported at 80mph, and the sea state is unbelievable dangerous
It is expected to last the rest of the day and we are not going anywhere
You are the same as the hard right but from the left
I don’t think SKS will be the PM at the next election but that’s because he will have resigned between now and then. Therefore the next PM will be a Labour MP, I suggest Farage and any Tory are extremely poor value in this market.
The expectations for SKS and Labour are so low that I still believe that if they do anything positive they will be re-elected. It’s rare that governments with majorities like these get ejected after one term. Now I know the last one was but that was really after a string of very unlikely events? With a new leader up against Badenoch (or any other Tory MP), Labour will have a better chance.
I do find the idea of a recession intriguing though. And if that happens, I’ll be betting on Labour to lose.
I think we should be discussing more which of the most likely Labour PMs, has the best chance of winning an election. I’d suggest Streeting or Phillipson. The former has a better chance of re-inventing Blairism for now but the latter looks and sounds working class and has an interesting background.
I still think Dan Jarvis could go for it in the right circumstances.
Hope you're buttoned up well.
Expect lots of flooding in Wales
My grandfather had a scrape on his shoulder from WWI. A bullet was low enough to cut through all the cloth, and just grazed the skin. Bled a little, then stoped of its own accord.
And 7.92 has far more energy than any 5.56 ever fired.
Hope you are doing fine in the wake of Storm Eluned.
We are still getting battered here. No 'tinternet and no felt o the shed roof nearest to the house. The greenhouse downpipe and water but have blown over. Roll on 3 o clock.
His definition of 'work' may cause him issues in the future. He doesn't seem to respect people who do genuinely low-paid work in the private sector.
I dont think Streeting can be leader unless he can switch to a safer seat, it seems likely he will lose his next time.
If I worked a few shifts at McDonald’s, would I become working class?
I don’t think it was a very funny joke but I’m struggling to understand what the issue is here. And at any rate if Badenoch had said what you’d said, she’d have got more traction. But saying it was about racism just undermines her entire supposed belief system. I honestly expected more from her.
One big barrier, in this country, is the divide between public sector and private sector jobs.
It is very difficult to change between them. Even something as basic as an CV doesn’t transfer.
And talking to people in each - their knowledge of The Other is mostly myths.
His party wants bolder policies, a clearer purpose and much sharper messaging
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1865320495039512639
But I think Starmer views 'work' and 'working class' oddly. Perhaps because of his own background, he likes to pigeonhole people. I don't know how many hours Badenoch worked at a McDonalds, but it's perfectly possible that she got more understanding of what it is to 'work' at low pay than he ever has.
I'm not working class. But I worked a lot, and associated with, lots of labourers and working-class people when I was a kid, including my dad's employees. It didn't make me working class, but it did give me some level of understanding of the lives and challenges different people have. Without that, I think I'd have much more of a middle-class, and perhaps even 'Tory' outlook.
If Badenoch is mortally offended and believes Starmer's comment was racially motivated she had every right to demand his resignation. She is the one who feels racially offended, not you.
The Conservatives are still down from a massive knockout blow.
Labour is still standing, but is looking shaky
The Lib Dem’s are nowhere
Reform don’t have the skills or organisation to take the opportunity. That is now - but sooner or later someone will work it out.
I keep saying it - if you want liberal social democracy, then find liberal social democratic solutions to problems.
Saying that “10 years planning windows are good process, not a problem” is a problem.
If it isn’t fixed, then you will get the bunch whose slogan is “We will build the railways on time. And the deportations will run on time as well.”
If you look at the power of Parliament, primary legislation allows it to do *anything* - pretty much unencumbered.
It’s a good rule to considered what the worst possible people can do with power….
Ironically Rayner would perform far better but she is not the answer either
I see no alternative for Labour than to hope Starmer improves but on the evidence so far I wouldn't hold my breath