Another blow for all of us if Jihadi militants take over Syria. Best bet is Assad holds on for at least a while in Damascus and Lebanon border and drains Russia of resources and planes and mercenaries to prop him up
This confirms me in my view that WWII has corrupted our historical perspective of conflicts. Not all wars have good guys and bad guys and not all wars merit outside intervention. Syria is a great example of a conflict that has so many complicated national and religious dimensions that it's foolish for any outside nation to back one particular side.
One advantage of the Ukraine war is that, whatever one’s view of the last three decades of geopolitics in that region, when it comes to the war itself there’s clearly one set of good guys and one set of bad guys.
Labour to slash powers of councils in bid to unclog planning and bypass NIMBYs
Under Ms Rayner's proposals, council officials would have a strengthened role in decision-making about planning while the councillors who sit on the committees will get new mandatory training.
Alongside the reforms, the Government is this week expected to confirm sweeping changes to the National Planning Policy Framework - the document which sets out national priorities for building - following a consultation.
Now this is more like it.
Such plans will be very unpopular with home owners in the home counties and suburban London especially
But very popular/lucrative for corrupt planning officials.
Five or ten years down the line, I expect something along those lines will be the trigger that starts the pendulum swinging back toward where we are.
Assad’s fall reminds me of the old adage of how businesses go bankrupt: gradually, then suddenly.
It would be nice to think something better, like a functioning pluralist democracy, will replace him, but the odds of that are so poor we needn’t seriously consider them.
More likely there’s further heavy fighting between different factions, and possibly a Turkish (or even Iraqi) invasion if the Kurds go for independence.
Another blow for all of us if Jihadi militants take over Syria. Best bet is Assad holds on for at least a while in Damascus and Lebanon border and drains Russia of resources and planes and mercenaries to prop him up
Why are you rooting for thousands more dead ?
That’s not going to happen, anyway. Assad has disappeared, and the Russians look to be leaving.
I've not followed this closely. Is it a) the Russians have decided to go (possibly they want the men and equipment for Ukraine?), and without them the Assad regime has collapsed like a wet paper bag or b) the Assad regime has collapsed like a wet paper bag, so the Russians who were propping him up have decided to bail out?
Or do we not really know?
IMV:
Assad and the Syrian army was a paper tiger after about 2013. It relied on Hezbollah/Iran manpower and Russian airpower to keep the territory it still held (not the whole country). Also, they had deals with some local groups in other areas of the country, whereby the government were only in nominal control.
There may have not been much movement in the lines of control for a few years, but the situation was not stable.
Russia has been visibly weakened over the last three years by its misadventures in Ukraine. Hezbollah has been badly weakened by Israeli adventures after Hamas's attacks on October 6th. Iran has also been weakened by these. This weakness is visible to everyone. Finally, Turkey is getting fed up with both Assad and the over three million refugees it has been generously housed for over a decade.
Neither Russia or Iran wanted Assad to go; but now Assad appears to have fallen, they are dealing with the consequences. Too much Syrian army and Russian military kit has been captured by the rebels for it to be in any way planned. There were also alleged videos yesterday of Iranian fighters sheltering in a Damascus mosque. Not something that would happen in a planned move.
Another blow for all of us if Jihadi militants take over Syria. Best bet is Assad holds on for at least a while in Damascus and Lebanon border and drains Russia of resources and planes and mercenaries to prop him up
This confirms me in my view that WWII has corrupted our historical perspective of conflicts. Not all wars have good guys and bad guys and not all wars merit outside intervention. Syria is a great example of a conflict that has so many complicated national and religious dimensions that it's foolish for any outside nation to back one particular side.
One advantage of the Ukraine war is that, whatever one’s view of the last three decades of geopolitics in that region, when it comes to the war itself there’s clearly one set of good guys and one set of bad guys.
Not according to many Republicans and their followers. For them, Russia is the good guy (see Tucker Carlson...)
Another blow for all of us if Jihadi militants take over Syria. Best bet is Assad holds on for at least a while in Damascus and Lebanon border and drains Russia of resources and planes and mercenaries to prop him up
Why are you rooting for thousands more dead ?
That’s not going to happen, anyway. Assad has disappeared, and the Russians look to be leaving.
I've not followed this closely. Is it a) the Russians have decided to go (possibly they want the men and equipment for Ukraine?), and without them the Assad regime has collapsed like a wet paper bag or b) the Assad regime has collapsed like a wet paper bag, so the Russians who were propping him up have decided to bail out?
Or do we not really know?
IMV:
Assad and the Syrian army was a paper tiger after about 2013. It relied on Hezbollah/Iran manpower and Russian airpower to keep the territory it still held (not the whole country). Also, they had deals with some local groups in other areas of the country, whereby the government were only in nominal control.
There may have not been much movement in the lines of control for a few years, but the situation was not stable.
Russia has been visibly weakened over the last three years by its misadventures in Ukraine. Hezbollah has been badly weakened by Israeli adventures after Hamas's attacks on October 6th. Iran has also been weakened by these. This weakness is visible to everyone. Finally, Turkey is getting fed up with both Assad and the over three million refugees it has been generously housed for over a decade.
Neither Russia or Iran wanted Assad to go; but now Assad appears to have fallen, they are dealing with the consequences. Too much Syrian army and Russian military kit has been captured by the rebels for it to be in any way planned. There were also alleged videos yesterday of Iranian fighters sheltering in a Damascus mosque. Not something that would happen in a planned move.
I expect it will emerge that Turkey has been the key player behind recent events. The question is whether they will be able to exercise much control over how it now pans out.
Mr. B2, the Good Times Bad Times video made right before things really got going suggested the rebels making the moves are backed by Turkey but not directly controlled.
Before I went to bed last night, I nearly wrote a post saying: "Remember that the Syrian rebels have been in the outskirts of Damascus before, only a few miles from the centre. What we're seeing at the moment does not necessarily mean that Assad and Damascus is going to fall."
But I didn't, as other matters intruded. I thought I'd post it this morning.
Mr. B2, the Good Times Bad Times video made right before things really got going suggested the rebels making the moves are backed by Turkey but not directly controlled.
This has not just been done by HTS: the rebels in the south and east have also gained significant territory over the last few weeks.
It'll be interesting to see what happens about the remaining pockets of ISIS/L in central/eastern Syria. AIUI they've been very hard to dislodge due to their mobility. They're true insurgents and don't particularly 'own' any territory permanently; they just move about, raiding.
Cone back Sky all is forgiven TNT cricket highlights were a shower of shit. Terrible editing of awful camerawork. ... and the highlights I just looked at omit the last two wickets and England's celebration.. as I said ... a crock/shower of shit.
Interesting rumours circulating on Twix that Assad's plane may have been shot down near Homs.. There appears to have been a Russian IL-76 plane crash - not clear if was a crash or shot down - no confirmation that Asad was on board.
Huge if true... Could Russia be taking its revenge on its failed puppet for losing Russia it's only Mediterranean port
It's a big defeat for Iran and a big defeat for Russia. That's good news in itself geopolitically.
It remains to be seen if it's good for Syrians or that West. The poor outcomes are if there's a new factionalised phase of the civil war begins (like in Libya) or it a radical Islamist group ends up in control (like in Afghanistan).
But that's all uncertain. The more hopeful is Syrians are sick of war, sick of extremist jihadi groups (given recent history with IS) and are sufficiently glad to be rid of Asad that they come to some agreement where there is relative peace, the government is Islamist but not a sponsor of terrorism.
For now, let's enjoy the defeat of two of our main foes at face value and hope for the best.
Comments
It would be nice to think something better, like a functioning pluralist democracy, will replace him, but the odds of that are so poor we needn’t seriously consider them.
More likely there’s further heavy fighting between different factions, and possibly a Turkish (or even Iraqi) invasion if the Kurds go for independence.
Assad and the Syrian army was a paper tiger after about 2013. It relied on Hezbollah/Iran manpower and Russian airpower to keep the territory it still held (not the whole country). Also, they had deals with some local groups in other areas of the country, whereby the government were only in nominal control.
There may have not been much movement in the lines of control for a few years, but the situation was not stable.
Russia has been visibly weakened over the last three years by its misadventures in Ukraine. Hezbollah has been badly weakened by Israeli adventures after Hamas's attacks on October 6th. Iran has also been weakened by these. This weakness is visible to everyone. Finally, Turkey is getting fed up with both Assad and the over three million refugees it has been generously housed for over a decade.
Neither Russia or Iran wanted Assad to go; but now Assad appears to have fallen, they are dealing with the consequences. Too much Syrian army and Russian military kit has been captured by the rebels for it to be in any way planned. There were also alleged videos yesterday of Iranian fighters sheltering in a Damascus mosque. Not something that would happen in a planned move.
https://bsky.app/profile/amermatar.bsky.social/post/3lcrj5tapgc2e
Revolutions are quite heady things.
But I didn't, as other matters intruded. I thought I'd post it this morning.
Events rather overtook me.
It'll be interesting to see what happens about the remaining pockets of ISIS/L in central/eastern Syria. AIUI they've been very hard to dislodge due to their mobility. They're true insurgents and don't particularly 'own' any territory permanently; they just move about, raiding.
https://www.thepoke.com/2024/12/07/talk-tv-feather-ruffler-isabel-oakeshott-trolled-a-critic-for-going-to-portsmouth-university-and-was-schooled-into-next-year/
TNT cricket highlights were a shower of shit. Terrible editing of awful camerawork.
... and the highlights I just looked at omit the last two wickets and England's celebration.. as I said ... a crock/shower of shit.
NEW THREAD
Huge if true... Could Russia be taking its revenge on its failed puppet for losing Russia it's only Mediterranean port
It remains to be seen if it's good for Syrians or that West. The poor outcomes are if there's a new factionalised phase of the civil war begins (like in Libya) or it a radical Islamist group ends up in control (like in Afghanistan).
But that's all uncertain. The more hopeful is Syrians are sick of war, sick of extremist jihadi groups (given recent history with IS) and are sufficiently glad to be rid of Asad that they come to some agreement where there is relative peace, the government is Islamist but not a sponsor of terrorism.
For now, let's enjoy the defeat of two of our main foes at face value and hope for the best.