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A popular government policy – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Taz said:
    Isn't this government awful!!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    slade said:

    Just 6 local by-elections tomorrow. We have Lab defences in Cardiff, Stirling, and Wokingham; an SNP defence in Glasgow; and a Lib Dem defence in South Oxfordshire.

    A Labour seat in Wokingham is a rarity. It'll probably go to either the LDs or Tories.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    theakes said:

    Really surprised to hear Tim Montgomerie has joined Reform.
    The Tories really are in trouble if her has taken this step.

    Montie worked for Hague and IDS and backed Jenrick, he is a respected conservative thinker but doesn't have a great record backing winners
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864

    Totally agree, bankers, like lawyers, are key to a successful economy,

    Britain’s ‘get the f---ers’ attitude has hurt banking, warns former Barclays chief

    Bob Diamond said British banks suffered ‘biblical justice’ at the hands of politicians after the financial crisis


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/03/britains-attitude-has-hurt-banking-former-barclays-chief/

    IIRC the money lenders were kicked out not bailed out by Jesus.
    Bush to be fair to him kicked out Lehmans with no bailout
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,420
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news, the Russian military ships that were docked in Tartus, Syria, all appear to have left.

    I wonder why?

    It looks as if the Assad regime is crumbling and Russia has decided it can no longer afford to sustain it. We have yet to discover if this proves a good thing or not.

    Meanwhile it looks as if President Yoon is going to be impeached as early as today for his martial law efforts.

    Interesting times and Trump hasn't even taken office yet.
    In fact the Russians have killed 400 of the Islamist militant rebels
    https://news.sky.com/story/syria-says-its-strikes-with-russia-have-killed-at-least-400-insurgents-over-past-24-hours-13265595

    The fact Russia has withdrawn 1 ship from Tartus means little.

    We of course cannot afford for the Assad regime to be replaced by the Al Qaeda linked rebels either
    One ship?
    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1864065378034266157
    https://defence-blog.com/russian-warships-leave-syrias-key-naval-base/

    You notice that your story is about Syrian claims. I might suggest to you that the claims might be somewhat bogus, or include innocent civilians as 'insurgents'.
    Who needs our Saturday morning Russian bots when we have HYUFD to push the pro-Russian line?
    Well at least I am not pushing pro Al Qaeda militant propoganda
    Neither is anyone else.
    Syria is a really complicated mess, and HYUFD is not someone who allows complexity to get in the way of his thinking. The forces who have taken Aleppo are not just HTS, but include, for example, Ajnad al-Kavkaz, who had Al Qaeda links, but have subsequently distanced themselves from AQ and have, most recently, been active fighting for Ukraine in the Battle of Bakhmut.
    I think this graphic clarifies the Syrian situation well:



    Though when you add in the other international interests it gets a bit more complicated.
    You need to split the "rebels" into several different groups, then we might be getting somewhere...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news, the Russian military ships that were docked in Tartus, Syria, all appear to have left.

    I wonder why?

    It looks as if the Assad regime is crumbling and Russia has decided it can no longer afford to sustain it. We have yet to discover if this proves a good thing or not.

    Meanwhile it looks as if President Yoon is going to be impeached as early as today for his martial law efforts.

    Interesting times and Trump hasn't even taken office yet.
    In fact the Russians have killed 400 of the Islamist militant rebels
    https://news.sky.com/story/syria-says-its-strikes-with-russia-have-killed-at-least-400-insurgents-over-past-24-hours-13265595

    The fact Russia has withdrawn 1 ship from Tartus means little.

    We of course cannot afford for the Assad regime to be replaced by the Al Qaeda linked rebels either
    One ship?
    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1864065378034266157
    https://defence-blog.com/russian-warships-leave-syrias-key-naval-base/

    You notice that your story is about Syrian claims. I might suggest to you that the claims might be somewhat bogus, or include innocent civilians as 'insurgents'.
    Only 1 confirmed but I know you are an apologist for the Al Qaeda linked Syrian militant rebels
    No, I'm not an 'apologist' for them. The only group I have much sympathy for are the Kurds, and I have reservations over them because of the links with the PKK. I have stated this on here many times.

    I will respond in kind: you are an apologist for the Assad regime, which has used chemical weapons on civilians in the past, and which is working closely with Russia and Iran.

    Fair enough if you don't support the rebels. But that does not mean you should support Assad's regime either. In that case, don't support anyone, and give your prayers to the innocent civilians caught between these groups.

    But supporting Assad? Shame on you.
    You are an apologist for Al Qaeda linked militants in Syria, because if Assad falls they are who will replace him not the Kurds. Endangering our national security far more than Assad ever could.

    Shame on you
    It’s not pushing propaganda to point out that Assad’s regime is one of the most murderous in the region, is now tottering, and its fall would be a blow to Russia.

    That does not mean its replacement would be any better.
    Compared to Iran or Taliban controlled Afghanistan or Hamas controlled Gaza or Saudi Arabia, Assad's regime is arguably relatively moderate.

    Its fall would be a disaster for us and the West as much as Russia, as Syria would be taken over by Al Qaeda linked militants and would provide a major base for jihadi terrorism to export to western cities
    Assad's regime is not moderate.

    It's a combination of weak, incompetent and completely amoral - to the extent he invited in the armed forces of two of the world's more noxious regimes (Russia and Iran) to maintain his otherwise crumbling regime. And was happy to have them conduct mass bombing and chemical warfare campaigns against his own civilians.

    We have little idea who would take over if the regime fell. The opposition is a disparate bunch ranging from extreme islamists to democratic moderates.
    But the point is the regime is completely unable to sustain itself, whatever we do.

    And the disaster has already been visited on the west. 20% of the entire population are refugees into Turkey and Europe - driven there by a Russian backed regime. That has already severely destabilised the entire EU.

    You basically have ignored the history of the last decade and a half.

    Yes the fall of Gaddafi for example also ushered in an enlightened Libya where same sex marriage is now legal, women now lead the nation and all is sweetness and light and prosperity. Oh wait....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited December 4
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news, the Russian military ships that were docked in Tartus, Syria, all appear to have left.

    I wonder why?

    It looks as if the Assad regime is crumbling and Russia has decided it can no longer afford to sustain it. We have yet to discover if this proves a good thing or not.

    Meanwhile it looks as if President Yoon is going to be impeached as early as today for his martial law efforts.

    Interesting times and Trump hasn't even taken office yet.
    In fact the Russians have killed 400 of the Islamist militant rebels
    https://news.sky.com/story/syria-says-its-strikes-with-russia-have-killed-at-least-400-insurgents-over-past-24-hours-13265595

    The fact Russia has withdrawn 1 ship from Tartus means little.

    We of course cannot afford for the Assad regime to be replaced by the Al Qaeda linked rebels either
    One ship?
    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1864065378034266157
    https://defence-blog.com/russian-warships-leave-syrias-key-naval-base/

    You notice that your story is about Syrian claims. I might suggest to you that the claims might be somewhat bogus, or include innocent civilians as 'insurgents'.
    Only 1 confirmed but I know you are an apologist for the Al Qaeda linked Syrian militant rebels
    No, I'm not an 'apologist' for them. The only group I have much sympathy for are the Kurds, and I have reservations over them because of the links with the PKK. I have stated this on here many times.

    I will respond in kind: you are an apologist for the Assad regime, which has used chemical weapons on civilians in the past, and which is working closely with Russia and Iran.

    Fair enough if you don't support the rebels. But that does not mean you should support Assad's regime either. In that case, don't support anyone, and give your prayers to the innocent civilians caught between these groups.

    But supporting Assad? Shame on you.
    You are an apologist for Al Qaeda linked militants in Syria, because if Assad falls they are who will replace him not the Kurds. Endangering our national security far more than Assad ever could.

    Shame on you
    It’s not pushing propaganda to point out that Assad’s regime is one of the most murderous in the region, is now tottering, and its fall would be a blow to Russia.

    That does not mean its replacement would be any better.
    Compared to Iran or Taliban controlled Afghanistan or Hamas controlled Gaza or Saudi Arabia, Assad's regime is arguably relatively moderate.

    Its fall would be a disaster for us and the West as much as Russia, as Syria would be taken over by Al Qaeda linked militants and would provide a major base for jihadi terrorism to export to western cities
    "Assad's regime is arguably relatively moderate."

    It's quite similar to the other evil regimes you mention: it's 'moderate' only if you agree with and support the regime. Go against the regime, and you're in trouble. Which is a bi reason the civil war started in the first place.

    And I don't call that in any way 'moderate'.

    But you are supporting Syria, Iran and Russia. I find that quite an odd position for you to take.
    I am not supporting Iran or Russia, I am just not as naive as you in that I recognise that whatever replaced Assad would be far worse and likely be an Islamist militant terrorist supporting regime
    In the short term at least the fall of Assad would be to our geopolitical benefit as it would diminish both Russia and Iran.

    A lot would depend in the long term how "Islamist" the new regime would be. It would only harm us if it supported terrorism outside Syria, if it was merely fundamentalist then no worse than Saudi or the Gulf States who we often see as allies.
    If the Assad Syrian regime fell and the Saudi regime fell soon after jihadi militants would likely control both and they would be seeking to export terrorism to the West
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news, the Russian military ships that were docked in Tartus, Syria, all appear to have left.

    I wonder why?

    It looks as if the Assad regime is crumbling and Russia has decided it can no longer afford to sustain it. We have yet to discover if this proves a good thing or not.

    Meanwhile it looks as if President Yoon is going to be impeached as early as today for his martial law efforts.

    Interesting times and Trump hasn't even taken office yet.
    In fact the Russians have killed 400 of the Islamist militant rebels
    https://news.sky.com/story/syria-says-its-strikes-with-russia-have-killed-at-least-400-insurgents-over-past-24-hours-13265595

    The fact Russia has withdrawn 1 ship from Tartus means little.

    We of course cannot afford for the Assad regime to be replaced by the Al Qaeda linked rebels either
    One ship?
    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1864065378034266157
    https://defence-blog.com/russian-warships-leave-syrias-key-naval-base/

    You notice that your story is about Syrian claims. I might suggest to you that the claims might be somewhat bogus, or include innocent civilians as 'insurgents'.
    Only 1 confirmed but I know you are an apologist for the Al Qaeda linked Syrian militant rebels
    No, I'm not an 'apologist' for them. The only group I have much sympathy for are the Kurds, and I have reservations over them because of the links with the PKK. I have stated this on here many times.

    I will respond in kind: you are an apologist for the Assad regime, which has used chemical weapons on civilians in the past, and which is working closely with Russia and Iran.

    Fair enough if you don't support the rebels. But that does not mean you should support Assad's regime either. In that case, don't support anyone, and give your prayers to the innocent civilians caught between these groups.

    But supporting Assad? Shame on you.
    You are an apologist for Al Qaeda linked militants in Syria, because if Assad falls they are who will replace him not the Kurds. Endangering our national security far more than Assad ever could.

    Shame on you
    It’s not pushing propaganda to point out that Assad’s regime is one of the most murderous in the region, is now tottering, and its fall would be a blow to Russia.

    That does not mean its replacement would be any better.
    Compared to Iran or Taliban controlled Afghanistan or Hamas controlled Gaza or Saudi Arabia, Assad's regime is arguably relatively moderate.

    Its fall would be a disaster for us and the West as much as Russia, as Syria would be taken over by Al Qaeda linked militants and would provide a major base for jihadi terrorism to export to western cities
    Assad's regime is not moderate.

    It's a combination of weak, incompetent and completely amoral - to the extent he invited in the armed forces of two of the world's more noxious regimes (Russia and Iran) to maintain his otherwise crumbling regime. And was happy to have them conduct mass bombing and chemical warfare campaigns against his own civilians.

    We have little idea who would take over if the regime fell. The opposition is a disparate bunch ranging from extreme islamists to democratic moderates.
    But the point is the regime is completely unable to sustain itself, whatever we do.

    And the disaster has already been visited on the west. 20% of the entire population are refugees into Turkey and Europe - driven there by a Russian backed regime. That has already severely destabilised the entire EU.

    You basically have ignored the history of the last decade and a half.

    Yes the fall of Gaddafi for example also ushered in an enlightened Libya where same sex marriage is now legal, women now lead the nation and all is sweetness and light and prosperity. Oh wait....
    Is that supposed to be some sort of analogy ?
    If so, it's a poor one.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    Sean_F said:

    "Once it had reformed council tax, Labour should dare to charge capital gains tax on everyone selling their primary residence. Treating bricks and mortar like ordinary purchases would stop the “property ladder” being a tax-free nest egg where savings are invested unproductively. Can you imagine the outrage?"

    Toynbee - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/03/george-osborne-wealth-tax-labour-inheritocracy-work-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves

    Yep. I can. One term would be guaranteed.

    Of a certainty.
    It's a real problem. The trick is to find a possible solution.

    A possible solution is to create enough housing that prices stop rising relative to wages. If you modulate it is a bit, you could get to "above inflation, but below wages". So over a long period of time, housing would become more affordable, without creating negative equity.

    "Creating" housing means a combination of (a) building housing and (b) adding rapid public transit to increase the useful* catchment area for housing.

    *The classic numbers are - frequencies of more than 1 train/bus per 10 minutes, with under 45 minutes door to door.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    Who scripts Kemi at PMQs? Her conviction politicians joke ran into Tory PMs' convictions.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    "Once it had reformed council tax, Labour should dare to charge capital gains tax on everyone selling their primary residence. Treating bricks and mortar like ordinary purchases would stop the “property ladder” being a tax-free nest egg where savings are invested unproductively. Can you imagine the outrage?"

    Toynbee - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/03/george-osborne-wealth-tax-labour-inheritocracy-work-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves

    Yep. I can. One term would be guaranteed.

    Probably true, you touch houses at your peril. It's a good point though. For home ownership to be the main route to personal wealth creation and at the same be blocked off to most young people without a very good job or parental backing is a pretty suboptimal situation.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news, the Russian military ships that were docked in Tartus, Syria, all appear to have left.

    I wonder why?

    It looks as if the Assad regime is crumbling and Russia has decided it can no longer afford to sustain it. We have yet to discover if this proves a good thing or not.

    Meanwhile it looks as if President Yoon is going to be impeached as early as today for his martial law efforts.

    Interesting times and Trump hasn't even taken office yet.
    In fact the Russians have killed 400 of the Islamist militant rebels
    https://news.sky.com/story/syria-says-its-strikes-with-russia-have-killed-at-least-400-insurgents-over-past-24-hours-13265595

    The fact Russia has withdrawn 1 ship from Tartus means little.

    We of course cannot afford for the Assad regime to be replaced by the Al Qaeda linked rebels either
    One ship?
    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1864065378034266157
    https://defence-blog.com/russian-warships-leave-syrias-key-naval-base/

    You notice that your story is about Syrian claims. I might suggest to you that the claims might be somewhat bogus, or include innocent civilians as 'insurgents'.
    Only 1 confirmed but I know you are an apologist for the Al Qaeda linked Syrian militant rebels
    No, I'm not an 'apologist' for them. The only group I have much sympathy for are the Kurds, and I have reservations over them because of the links with the PKK. I have stated this on here many times.

    I will respond in kind: you are an apologist for the Assad regime, which has used chemical weapons on civilians in the past, and which is working closely with Russia and Iran.

    Fair enough if you don't support the rebels. But that does not mean you should support Assad's regime either. In that case, don't support anyone, and give your prayers to the innocent civilians caught between these groups.

    But supporting Assad? Shame on you.
    You are an apologist for Al Qaeda linked militants in Syria, because if Assad falls they are who will replace him not the Kurds. Endangering our national security far more than Assad ever could.

    Shame on you
    It’s not pushing propaganda to point out that Assad’s regime is one of the most murderous in the region, is now tottering, and its fall would be a blow to Russia.

    That does not mean its replacement would be any better.
    Compared to Iran or Taliban controlled Afghanistan or Hamas controlled Gaza or Saudi Arabia, Assad's regime is arguably relatively moderate.

    Its fall would be a disaster for us and the West as much as Russia, as Syria would be taken over by Al Qaeda linked militants and would provide a major base for jihadi terrorism to export to western cities
    Assad's regime is not moderate.

    It's a combination of weak, incompetent and completely amoral - to the extent he invited in the armed forces of two of the world's more noxious regimes (Russia and Iran) to maintain his otherwise crumbling regime. And was happy to have them conduct mass bombing and chemical warfare campaigns against his own civilians.

    We have little idea who would take over if the regime fell. The opposition is a disparate bunch ranging from extreme islamists to democratic moderates.
    But the point is the regime is completely unable to sustain itself, whatever we do.

    And the disaster has already been visited on the west. 20% of the entire population are refugees into Turkey and Europe - driven there by a Russian backed regime. That has already severely destabilised the entire EU.

    You basically have ignored the history of the last decade and a half.

    Yes the fall of Gaddafi for example also ushered in an enlightened Libya where same sex marriage is now legal, women now lead the nation and all is sweetness and light and prosperity. Oh wait....
    Is that supposed to be some sort of analogy ?
    If so, it's a poor one.
    Is it? This was the neocon delusion that led to Iraq. The idea that toppled dictatorships would be replaced by liberal democracies.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,879
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone - I've been out and about early.

    A fascinating conversation on Silicon Curtain with a Westerner managing an independent military training organisation in Ukraine, comparing and contrasting Nato vs left-over Russian cultural models, command styles, and his experiences.

    Kevin Leach is the main director for Sabre Training Advisory Group, a professional military training non-profit.

    Really interesting:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOCTo6Gt-cw

    Listening to the rest. Enjoyable.

    (Nearly) quote: "Jake Sullivan is a f*cking asshat" in conversation about the accounting of wrecks being given to Ukraine costed at full-price-for-new-system-replacing. Also, multiple uses of that excellent word "boondoggle".
  • Totally agree, bankers, like lawyers, are key to a successful economy,

    Britain’s ‘get the f---ers’ attitude has hurt banking, warns former Barclays chief

    Bob Diamond said British banks suffered ‘biblical justice’ at the hands of politicians after the financial crisis


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/03/britains-attitude-has-hurt-banking-former-barclays-chief/

    IIRC the money lenders were kicked out not bailed out by Jesus.
    Well, no, he kicked out the money changers.
    He would have approved of the Euro then.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news, the Russian military ships that were docked in Tartus, Syria, all appear to have left.

    I wonder why?

    It looks as if the Assad regime is crumbling and Russia has decided it can no longer afford to sustain it. We have yet to discover if this proves a good thing or not.

    Meanwhile it looks as if President Yoon is going to be impeached as early as today for his martial law efforts.

    Interesting times and Trump hasn't even taken office yet.
    In fact the Russians have killed 400 of the Islamist militant rebels
    https://news.sky.com/story/syria-says-its-strikes-with-russia-have-killed-at-least-400-insurgents-over-past-24-hours-13265595

    The fact Russia has withdrawn 1 ship from Tartus means little.

    We of course cannot afford for the Assad regime to be replaced by the Al Qaeda linked rebels either
    One ship?
    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1864065378034266157
    https://defence-blog.com/russian-warships-leave-syrias-key-naval-base/

    You notice that your story is about Syrian claims. I might suggest to you that the claims might be somewhat bogus, or include innocent civilians as 'insurgents'.
    Only 1 confirmed but I know you are an apologist for the Al Qaeda linked Syrian militant rebels
    No, I'm not an 'apologist' for them. The only group I have much sympathy for are the Kurds, and I have reservations over them because of the links with the PKK. I have stated this on here many times.

    I will respond in kind: you are an apologist for the Assad regime, which has used chemical weapons on civilians in the past, and which is working closely with Russia and Iran.

    Fair enough if you don't support the rebels. But that does not mean you should support Assad's regime either. In that case, don't support anyone, and give your prayers to the innocent civilians caught between these groups.

    But supporting Assad? Shame on you.
    You are an apologist for Al Qaeda linked militants in Syria, because if Assad falls they are who will replace him not the Kurds. Endangering our national security far more than Assad ever could.

    Shame on you
    It’s not pushing propaganda to point out that Assad’s regime is one of the most murderous in the region, is now tottering, and its fall would be a blow to Russia.

    That does not mean its replacement would be any better.
    Compared to Iran or Taliban controlled Afghanistan or Hamas controlled Gaza or Saudi Arabia, Assad's regime is arguably relatively moderate.

    Its fall would be a disaster for us and the West as much as Russia, as Syria would be taken over by Al Qaeda linked militants and would provide a major base for jihadi terrorism to export to western cities
    Assad's regime is not moderate.

    It's a combination of weak, incompetent and completely amoral - to the extent he invited in the armed forces of two of the world's more noxious regimes (Russia and Iran) to maintain his otherwise crumbling regime. And was happy to have them conduct mass bombing and chemical warfare campaigns against his own civilians.

    We have little idea who would take over if the regime fell. The opposition is a disparate bunch ranging from extreme islamists to democratic moderates.
    But the point is the regime is completely unable to sustain itself, whatever we do.

    And the disaster has already been visited on the west. 20% of the entire population are refugees into Turkey and Europe - driven there by a Russian backed regime. That has already severely destabilised the entire EU.

    You basically have ignored the history of the last decade and a half.

    Yes the fall of Gaddafi for example also ushered in an enlightened Libya where same sex marriage is now legal, women now lead the nation and all is sweetness and light and prosperity. Oh wait....
    Is that supposed to be some sort of analogy ?
    If so, it's a poor one.
    Is it? This was the neocon delusion that led to Iraq. The idea that toppled dictatorships would be replaced by liberal democracies.
    The French were apparently incredulous that the British Government didn't arrange for Joshua Nkomo to win the vote in first universal Zimbabwean elections.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    China bans exports of gallium, germanium, antimony, and other key high-tech materials with potential military applications to the United States — AP
    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1863902575084376198

    Ukraine is, of course, a large potential alternative source for many of these...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,897
    Taz said:
    Revised up though in the final estimate from a lower number in the 'flash' release. Meaning the survey responses coming in later on were better.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    6m
    It was always going to be hard for Kemi Badenoch. But at the moment she simply can’t assert herself in the way necessary to dominate PMQs. It’s becoming a big problem for her.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    kinabalu said:

    "Once it had reformed council tax, Labour should dare to charge capital gains tax on everyone selling their primary residence. Treating bricks and mortar like ordinary purchases would stop the “property ladder” being a tax-free nest egg where savings are invested unproductively. Can you imagine the outrage?"

    Toynbee - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/03/george-osborne-wealth-tax-labour-inheritocracy-work-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves

    Yep. I can. One term would be guaranteed.

    Probably true, you touch houses at your peril. It's a good point though. For home ownership to be the main route to personal wealth creation and at the same be blocked off to most young people without a very good job or parental backing is a pretty suboptimal situation.
    Yep, it is a mess and that's for sure.

  • Shecorns88Shecorns88 Posts: 279

    Who scripts Kemi at PMQs? Her conviction politicians joke ran into Tory PMs' convictions.

    Despite only working a 3 day week and having 4 days to prep she really does go from bad to worse.

    Insulting public service and rail workers who gave had a pay rise after 3 years of Tories failing to enter talks and destroying services, she then misses an open goal on Haigh.

    Pretty dire stuff and Starmer keeps the nuclear option hidden away for another week.

    Website hacking is an offence you know Kemi.
  • Taz said:
    "Close to stalling" is the same thing as "growing, but very slowly", isn't it?
  • sarissa said:

    boulay said:

    Mortimer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    I take it that cap would apply to unions too?

    It would be perfectly fair if so.

    Unions may though ask Members to opt in or out of the Political Levy as has been done widely in the past and then argue its perfectly fair to divide the donation by the number "opting in".

    That would also be perfectly fair if you assume most large donations are from individuals.

    What does need stopping is donations from overseas or more specifically NON UK taxpayers. By all means if you pay Taxes here you can donate, if you don't you can't!
    Perhaps donations should be limited to those who are net contributors to the Treasury?
    How about votes as well?
    I have been a strong advocate of ‘no representation without taxation’ for years.

    Give double votes to additional rate tax payers.
    This is how democracy dies, step by step - unless I've stumbled into the PB Sarcasm-a-thon by mistake?
    My tongue may have been in the vicinity of my cheek when I made it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    6m
    It was always going to be hard for Kemi Badenoch. But at the moment she simply can’t assert herself in the way necessary to dominate PMQs. It’s becoming a big problem for her.

    Why was it going to be hard for her? At the moment Hodges can't get anything right. It doesn't seem a problem though as he has a loyal fan base for some reason.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    Keir Starmer slams “open borders” Kemi. More red meat for the nativist Labour base.

    https://x.com/maxtempers/status/1864284002368069695
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,972
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:
    Isn't this government awful!!
    It's failed to impress so far, that's for sure. The budget has been a flop.

    "Mr Bailey said: “The level of uncertainty is rising at the moment. Certainly, some of that is domestic and some of that is global.

    “I think the biggest issue now in the immediate future is the response to the national insurance change; how companies balance the mixture of prices, wages, the level of employment, what is taken on margin, is an important judgment for us.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/national-insurance-hike-biggest-issue-after-budget-bank-chief-says/ar-AA1vfBaz?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=33bdce0af75d4a56b265a047231c9caf&ei=9

    I have some buyers remorse but I think JJ (IIRC) is right, give it a couple of years to really see their impact.

    SKS couldn't even make switching on the Number 10 Xmas lights fun.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,897
    kinabalu said:

    "Once it had reformed council tax, Labour should dare to charge capital gains tax on everyone selling their primary residence. Treating bricks and mortar like ordinary purchases would stop the “property ladder” being a tax-free nest egg where savings are invested unproductively. Can you imagine the outrage?"

    Toynbee - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/03/george-osborne-wealth-tax-labour-inheritocracy-work-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves

    Yep. I can. One term would be guaranteed.

    Probably true, you touch houses at your peril. It's a good point though. For home ownership to be the main route to personal wealth creation and at the same be blocked off to most young people without a very good job or parental backing is a pretty suboptimal situation.
    Yup. Capital gains on primary residences should be bracketed with road pricing and a land tax in the set of good ideas that nobody has the guts to implement.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,807
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news, the Russian military ships that were docked in Tartus, Syria, all appear to have left.

    I wonder why?

    It looks as if the Assad regime is crumbling and Russia has decided it can no longer afford to sustain it. We have yet to discover if this proves a good thing or not.

    Meanwhile it looks as if President Yoon is going to be impeached as early as today for his martial law efforts.

    Interesting times and Trump hasn't even taken office yet.
    In fact the Russians have killed 400 of the Islamist militant rebels
    https://news.sky.com/story/syria-says-its-strikes-with-russia-have-killed-at-least-400-insurgents-over-past-24-hours-13265595

    The fact Russia has withdrawn 1 ship from Tartus means little.

    We of course cannot afford for the Assad regime to be replaced by the Al Qaeda linked rebels either
    One ship?
    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1864065378034266157
    https://defence-blog.com/russian-warships-leave-syrias-key-naval-base/

    You notice that your story is about Syrian claims. I might suggest to you that the claims might be somewhat bogus, or include innocent civilians as 'insurgents'.
    Only 1 confirmed but I know you are an apologist for the Al Qaeda linked Syrian militant rebels
    No, I'm not an 'apologist' for them. The only group I have much sympathy for are the Kurds, and I have reservations over them because of the links with the PKK. I have stated this on here many times.

    I will respond in kind: you are an apologist for the Assad regime, which has used chemical weapons on civilians in the past, and which is working closely with Russia and Iran.

    Fair enough if you don't support the rebels. But that does not mean you should support Assad's regime either. In that case, don't support anyone, and give your prayers to the innocent civilians caught between these groups.

    But supporting Assad? Shame on you.
    You are an apologist for Al Qaeda linked militants in Syria, because if Assad falls they are who will replace him not the Kurds. Endangering our national security far more than Assad ever could.

    Shame on you
    It’s not pushing propaganda to point out that Assad’s regime is one of the most murderous in the region, is now tottering, and its fall would be a blow to Russia.

    That does not mean its replacement would be any better.
    How do you work out that the Assad regime is 'one of the most murderous in the region'? Are any of the others engaged in a civil war? Comparing apples with apples, whilst undoubtedly repressive toward threats to the regime, I doubt a peacetime comparison would show this to be remotely true.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,972

    Taz said:
    "Close to stalling" is the same thing as "growing, but very slowly", isn't it?
    Yes and It is decelerating growth too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082

    kinabalu said:

    "Once it had reformed council tax, Labour should dare to charge capital gains tax on everyone selling their primary residence. Treating bricks and mortar like ordinary purchases would stop the “property ladder” being a tax-free nest egg where savings are invested unproductively. Can you imagine the outrage?"

    Toynbee - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/03/george-osborne-wealth-tax-labour-inheritocracy-work-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves

    Yep. I can. One term would be guaranteed.

    Probably true, you touch houses at your peril. It's a good point though. For home ownership to be the main route to personal wealth creation and at the same be blocked off to most young people without a very good job or parental backing is a pretty suboptimal situation.
    Yep, it is a mess and that's for sure.

    Build enough housing to stop prices rising. It's not complicated.

    Either you do this now, or in a few years either

    1) The FuckTheNewts Party will build on the greenest greenbelt in their opponents constituencies, using primary legislation
    2) The DeportImmigrants Party will deport lots of people, using primary legislation.

    You've got a chance, now, to implement a sensible solution that is compatible with liberal democratic values.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,521

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news, the Russian military ships that were docked in Tartus, Syria, all appear to have left.

    I wonder why?

    It looks as if the Assad regime is crumbling and Russia has decided it can no longer afford to sustain it. We have yet to discover if this proves a good thing or not.

    Meanwhile it looks as if President Yoon is going to be impeached as early as today for his martial law efforts.

    Interesting times and Trump hasn't even taken office yet.
    In fact the Russians have killed 400 of the Islamist militant rebels
    https://news.sky.com/story/syria-says-its-strikes-with-russia-have-killed-at-least-400-insurgents-over-past-24-hours-13265595

    The fact Russia has withdrawn 1 ship from Tartus means little.

    We of course cannot afford for the Assad regime to be replaced by the Al Qaeda linked rebels either
    One ship?
    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1864065378034266157
    https://defence-blog.com/russian-warships-leave-syrias-key-naval-base/

    You notice that your story is about Syrian claims. I might suggest to you that the claims might be somewhat bogus, or include innocent civilians as 'insurgents'.
    Only 1 confirmed but I know you are an apologist for the Al Qaeda linked Syrian militant rebels
    No, I'm not an 'apologist' for them. The only group I have much sympathy for are the Kurds, and I have reservations over them because of the links with the PKK. I have stated this on here many times.

    I will respond in kind: you are an apologist for the Assad regime, which has used chemical weapons on civilians in the past, and which is working closely with Russia and Iran.

    Fair enough if you don't support the rebels. But that does not mean you should support Assad's regime either. In that case, don't support anyone, and give your prayers to the innocent civilians caught between these groups.

    But supporting Assad? Shame on you.
    You are an apologist for Al Qaeda linked militants in Syria, because if Assad falls they are who will replace him not the Kurds. Endangering our national security far more than Assad ever could.

    Shame on you
    It’s not pushing propaganda to point out that Assad’s regime is one of the most murderous in the region, is now tottering, and its fall would be a blow to Russia.

    That does not mean its replacement would be any better.
    Compared to Iran or Taliban controlled Afghanistan or Hamas controlled Gaza or Saudi Arabia, Assad's regime is arguably relatively moderate.

    Its fall would be a disaster for us and the West as much as Russia, as Syria would be taken over by Al Qaeda linked militants and would provide a major base for jihadi terrorism to export to western cities
    Assad's regime is not moderate.

    It's a combination of weak, incompetent and completely amoral - to the extent he invited in the armed forces of two of the world's more noxious regimes (Russia and Iran) to maintain his otherwise crumbling regime. And was happy to have them conduct mass bombing and chemical warfare campaigns against his own civilians.

    We have little idea who would take over if the regime fell. The opposition is a disparate bunch ranging from extreme islamists to democratic moderates.
    But the point is the regime is completely unable to sustain itself, whatever we do.

    And the disaster has already been visited on the west. 20% of the entire population are refugees into Turkey and Europe - driven there by a Russian backed regime. That has already severely destabilised the entire EU.

    You basically have ignored the history of the last decade and a half.

    Yes the fall of Gaddafi for example also ushered in an enlightened Libya where same sex marriage is now legal, women now lead the nation and all is sweetness and light and prosperity. Oh wait....
    Is that supposed to be some sort of analogy ?
    If so, it's a poor one.
    Is it? This was the neocon delusion that led to Iraq. The idea that toppled dictatorships would be replaced by liberal democracies.
    There are no good options in the Middle East. I don't think Assad is the least bad.

    In Libya likewise, the Gadaffis were intending to massacre their enemies in the East of the country, which would have led to a vast influx of refugees, across the Mediterranean.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114

    kinabalu said:

    "Once it had reformed council tax, Labour should dare to charge capital gains tax on everyone selling their primary residence. Treating bricks and mortar like ordinary purchases would stop the “property ladder” being a tax-free nest egg where savings are invested unproductively. Can you imagine the outrage?"

    Toynbee - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/03/george-osborne-wealth-tax-labour-inheritocracy-work-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves

    Yep. I can. One term would be guaranteed.

    Probably true, you touch houses at your peril. It's a good point though. For home ownership to be the main route to personal wealth creation and at the same be blocked off to most young people without a very good job or parental backing is a pretty suboptimal situation.
    Yep, it is a mess and that's for sure.

    Build enough housing to stop prices rising. It's not complicated.

    Either you do this now, or in a few years either

    1) The FuckTheNewts Party will build on the greenest greenbelt in their opponents constituencies, using primary legislation
    2) The DeportImmigrants Party will deport lots of people, using primary legislation.

    You've got a chance, now, to implement a sensible solution that is compatible with liberal democratic values.
    Pretty good summary.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,972
    HYUFD said:

    Totally agree, bankers, like lawyers, are key to a successful economy,

    Britain’s ‘get the f---ers’ attitude has hurt banking, warns former Barclays chief

    Bob Diamond said British banks suffered ‘biblical justice’ at the hands of politicians after the financial crisis


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/03/britains-attitude-has-hurt-banking-former-barclays-chief/

    IIRC the money lenders were kicked out not bailed out by Jesus.
    Bush to be fair to him kicked out Lehmans with no bailout
    They would not have needed a bailout if it was Lehman Sisters.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,972

    kinabalu said:

    "Once it had reformed council tax, Labour should dare to charge capital gains tax on everyone selling their primary residence. Treating bricks and mortar like ordinary purchases would stop the “property ladder” being a tax-free nest egg where savings are invested unproductively. Can you imagine the outrage?"

    Toynbee - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/03/george-osborne-wealth-tax-labour-inheritocracy-work-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves

    Yep. I can. One term would be guaranteed.

    Probably true, you touch houses at your peril. It's a good point though. For home ownership to be the main route to personal wealth creation and at the same be blocked off to most young people without a very good job or parental backing is a pretty suboptimal situation.
    Yep, it is a mess and that's for sure.

    Build enough housing to stop prices rising. It's not complicated.

    Either you do this now, or in a few years either

    1) The FuckTheNewts Party will build on the greenest greenbelt in their opponents constituencies, using primary legislation
    2) The DeportImmigrants Party will deport lots of people, using primary legislation.

    You've got a chance, now, to implement a sensible solution that is compatible with liberal democratic values.
    When the govt does something to try to tackle onerous legislation, even if of its own makings, like the last one did with Nutrient Neutrality they get demented responses from the likes of the RSPB and end up backtracking.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    6m
    It was always going to be hard for Kemi Badenoch. But at the moment she simply can’t assert herself in the way necessary to dominate PMQs. It’s becoming a big problem for her.

    Why was it going to be hard for her? At the moment Hodges can't get anything right. It doesn't seem a problem though as he has a loyal fan base for some reason.
    Hodges is doubly wrong because MPs do listen to Kemi. It's what she says that is the problem.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,972


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    6m
    It was always going to be hard for Kemi Badenoch. But at the moment she simply can’t assert herself in the way necessary to dominate PMQs. It’s becoming a big problem for her.

    Why was it going to be hard for her? At the moment Hodges can't get anything right. It doesn't seem a problem though as he has a loyal fan base for some reason.
    Hodges is doubly wrong because MPs do listen to Kemi. It's what she says that is the problem.
    I am not sure her performance at PMQs is a problem. Precious few people bother with it.

    But in an election campaign it really will matter. Although if she is up against Sir Drear then it will be like Rishi v SKS all over again.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    "Once it had reformed council tax, Labour should dare to charge capital gains tax on everyone selling their primary residence. Treating bricks and mortar like ordinary purchases would stop the “property ladder” being a tax-free nest egg where savings are invested unproductively. Can you imagine the outrage?"

    Toynbee - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/03/george-osborne-wealth-tax-labour-inheritocracy-work-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves

    Yep. I can. One term would be guaranteed.

    Probably true, you touch houses at your peril. It's a good point though. For home ownership to be the main route to personal wealth creation and at the same be blocked off to most young people without a very good job or parental backing is a pretty suboptimal situation.
    Yep, it is a mess and that's for sure.

    Build enough housing to stop prices rising. It's not complicated.

    Either you do this now, or in a few years either

    1) The FuckTheNewts Party will build on the greenest greenbelt in their opponents constituencies, using primary legislation
    2) The DeportImmigrants Party will deport lots of people, using primary legislation.

    You've got a chance, now, to implement a sensible solution that is compatible with liberal democratic values.
    When the govt does something to try to tackle onerous legislation, even if of its own makings, like the last one did with Nutrient Neutrality they get demented responses from the likes of the RSPB and end up backtracking.
    The RSPB & Co. need to work out that, either they can make a deal with a relatively nice government. Or they can *hope* to deal with Reform.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,879
    edited December 4
    Chuckleberry Vinegar Recipe

    I said last week that I was making fruit vinegar, this year with Chuckleberries not Blackberries - the former being a hybrid of redcurrants, blackcurrants and gooseberries, so with quite a sharp, tart flavour in comparison.

    My recipe came from here, with about 50-100% more fruit, 25% less sugar and using these not blackberries.
    https://www.eatweeds.co.uk/blackberry-vinegar-recipe

    Chuckleberries cost me about £40 for 12 kg, from British Frozen Fruit here:
    https://www.frozenfruit.co.uk/

    (Joy of joys, I just found a bottle of 2018 Blackberry Vinegar at the back, so I can compare, and therefore have no choice but to eat lots of pancakes.)
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,972
    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news, the Russian military ships that were docked in Tartus, Syria, all appear to have left.

    I wonder why?

    It looks as if the Assad regime is crumbling and Russia has decided it can no longer afford to sustain it. We have yet to discover if this proves a good thing or not.

    Meanwhile it looks as if President Yoon is going to be impeached as early as today for his martial law efforts.

    Interesting times and Trump hasn't even taken office yet.
    In fact the Russians have killed 400 of the Islamist militant rebels
    https://news.sky.com/story/syria-says-its-strikes-with-russia-have-killed-at-least-400-insurgents-over-past-24-hours-13265595

    The fact Russia has withdrawn 1 ship from Tartus means little.

    We of course cannot afford for the Assad regime to be replaced by the Al Qaeda linked rebels either
    One ship?
    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1864065378034266157
    https://defence-blog.com/russian-warships-leave-syrias-key-naval-base/

    You notice that your story is about Syrian claims. I might suggest to you that the claims might be somewhat bogus, or include innocent civilians as 'insurgents'.
    Only 1 confirmed but I know you are an apologist for the Al Qaeda linked Syrian militant rebels
    No, I'm not an 'apologist' for them. The only group I have much sympathy for are the Kurds, and I have reservations over them because of the links with the PKK. I have stated this on here many times.

    I will respond in kind: you are an apologist for the Assad regime, which has used chemical weapons on civilians in the past, and which is working closely with Russia and Iran.

    Fair enough if you don't support the rebels. But that does not mean you should support Assad's regime either. In that case, don't support anyone, and give your prayers to the innocent civilians caught between these groups.

    But supporting Assad? Shame on you.
    You are an apologist for Al Qaeda linked militants in Syria, because if Assad falls they are who will replace him not the Kurds. Endangering our national security far more than Assad ever could.

    Shame on you
    It’s not pushing propaganda to point out that Assad’s regime is one of the most murderous in the region, is now tottering, and its fall would be a blow to Russia.

    That does not mean its replacement would be any better.
    Compared to Iran or Taliban controlled Afghanistan or Hamas controlled Gaza or Saudi Arabia, Assad's regime is arguably relatively moderate.

    Its fall would be a disaster for us and the West as much as Russia, as Syria would be taken over by Al Qaeda linked militants and would provide a major base for jihadi terrorism to export to western cities
    Assad's regime is not moderate.

    It's a combination of weak, incompetent and completely amoral - to the extent he invited in the armed forces of two of the world's more noxious regimes (Russia and Iran) to maintain his otherwise crumbling regime. And was happy to have them conduct mass bombing and chemical warfare campaigns against his own civilians.

    We have little idea who would take over if the regime fell. The opposition is a disparate bunch ranging from extreme islamists to democratic moderates.
    But the point is the regime is completely unable to sustain itself, whatever we do.

    And the disaster has already been visited on the west. 20% of the entire population are refugees into Turkey and Europe - driven there by a Russian backed regime. That has already severely destabilised the entire EU.

    You basically have ignored the history of the last decade and a half.

    Yes the fall of Gaddafi for example also ushered in an enlightened Libya where same sex marriage is now legal, women now lead the nation and all is sweetness and light and prosperity. Oh wait....
    Is that supposed to be some sort of analogy ?
    If so, it's a poor one.
    Is it? This was the neocon delusion that led to Iraq. The idea that toppled dictatorships would be replaced by liberal democracies.
    There are no good options in the Middle East. I don't think Assad is the least bad.

    In Libya likewise, the Gadaffis were intending to massacre their enemies in the East of the country, which would have led to a vast influx of refugees, across the Mediterranean.
    They got rid of Gaddafi and that is what we got anyway.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,879

    How much money does a political party need to operate? I'd argue there should be a limit to spending as well, just as there is at election time.

    So we can say if they stand in (say) 600 of the 650 constituencies, then they must be able to raise the election spending limit (currently £54,010 ?) times the number of constituencies, as at present. If there are by-elections, the spending cap increases by £54,010 if they stand a candidate.

    But a political party is not just about MPs and elections; there are a whole host of other centralised jobs that need doing. But how much should be budgeted for that? Again, I'd argue that should be an amount that scales on how many constituencies a party stood in at the last GE. To help smaller parties, this should be a minimum of (say) 20. So they can still raise some funds.

    So the parties can raise money up to that total value, but no more. Having a maximum limit would IMO limit the ability for corruption in the system.

    (This is a broad outline only)

    The problem with using the last election as the basis for spending at the next election is that it builds in incumbency bias - not in terms of actual seats won of course but in terms of the most well established parties.

    So, for example, a moderate centre right party grows over the next 4 years but finds that it is extremely limited in its funding possibilities compared to, for example, Reform or the Greens, because they stood in most constituencies at the previous election.
    Yep, there will be problems with any system. But my broad question remains: how much does a political party actually need?
    I think your basic calculations are sound but I would say that all parties should be treated equally and be given the same overall limits.
    One major problem there is drawing a cordon sanitaire round the edge.

    How do you deal, for example with Greenpeace advertising around green issues, or Migration Something Something doing the same around asylum or the ODA budget? If it's not under control of the party, it can't really be linked to it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,972
    MattW said:

    Chuckleberry Vinegar Recipe

    I said last week that I was making fruit vinegar, this year with Chuckleberries not Blackberries - the former being a hybrid of redcurrants, blackcurrants and gooseberries, so with quite a sharp, tart flavour in comparison.

    My recipe came from here, with about 50-100% more fruit, 25% less sugar and using these not blackberries.
    https://www.eatweeds.co.uk/blackberry-vinegar-recipe

    Chuckleberries cost me about £40 for 12 kg, from British Frozen Fruit here:
    https://www.frozenfruit.co.uk/

    (Joy of joys, I just found a bottle of 2018 Blackberry Vinegar at the back, so I can compare, and therefore have no choice but to eat lots of pancakes.)

    Oooh, now that's a useful link.

    I will be retired soon and I love making my own wine from fruit.

    My supply of fruit comes from a co-worker. I will have a look at that website come spring and see about getting some.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405
    edited December 4
    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    "Once it had reformed council tax, Labour should dare to charge capital gains tax on everyone selling their primary residence. Treating bricks and mortar like ordinary purchases would stop the “property ladder” being a tax-free nest egg where savings are invested unproductively. Can you imagine the outrage?"

    Toynbee - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/03/george-osborne-wealth-tax-labour-inheritocracy-work-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves

    Yep. I can. One term would be guaranteed.

    Probably true, you touch houses at your peril. It's a good point though. For home ownership to be the main route to personal wealth creation and at the same be blocked off to most young people without a very good job or parental backing is a pretty suboptimal situation.
    Yep, it is a mess and that's for sure.

    Build enough housing to stop prices rising. It's not complicated.

    Either you do this now, or in a few years either

    1) The FuckTheNewts Party will build on the greenest greenbelt in their opponents constituencies, using primary legislation
    2) The DeportImmigrants Party will deport lots of people, using primary legislation.

    You've got a chance, now, to implement a sensible solution that is compatible with liberal democratic values.
    When the govt does something to try to tackle onerous legislation, even if of its own makings, like the last one did with Nutrient Neutrality they get demented responses from the likes of the RSPB and end up backtracking.
    They need to have some stones to face down opposition like that. I mean with the farmers the proposals do need changing (Dan Neidle has some ideas on X) and I'm with the farmers at the moment, but if the proposals were changed to clobber the likes of Dyson and Lloyd Webber then I'd support the gov't on the matter even though they'd face much opposition.
    Self employed NICs was the most bonkers backtrack to my mind from the previous gov't, probably because every single radio phone in host was going to be hit by it with their "I can't believe it's not IR35" arrangements.

    When Reeves or whoever puts together their budget they really should run it past some clever people of Tax firm X for a day's work for a couple of grand or whatever to check it's all OK. Because budgets will always face some opposition if they're making tough choices but the gov't should at least be trying to make the right tough choices to slow growth the least and raise the most revenue. I'm not sure this one is.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,972

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    "Once it had reformed council tax, Labour should dare to charge capital gains tax on everyone selling their primary residence. Treating bricks and mortar like ordinary purchases would stop the “property ladder” being a tax-free nest egg where savings are invested unproductively. Can you imagine the outrage?"

    Toynbee - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/03/george-osborne-wealth-tax-labour-inheritocracy-work-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves

    Yep. I can. One term would be guaranteed.

    Probably true, you touch houses at your peril. It's a good point though. For home ownership to be the main route to personal wealth creation and at the same be blocked off to most young people without a very good job or parental backing is a pretty suboptimal situation.
    Yep, it is a mess and that's for sure.

    Build enough housing to stop prices rising. It's not complicated.

    Either you do this now, or in a few years either

    1) The FuckTheNewts Party will build on the greenest greenbelt in their opponents constituencies, using primary legislation
    2) The DeportImmigrants Party will deport lots of people, using primary legislation.

    You've got a chance, now, to implement a sensible solution that is compatible with liberal democratic values.
    When the govt does something to try to tackle onerous legislation, even if of its own makings, like the last one did with Nutrient Neutrality they get demented responses from the likes of the RSPB and end up backtracking.
    The RSPB & Co. need to work out that, either they can make a deal with a relatively nice government. Or they can *hope* to deal with Reform.
    They do need to have grown ups in charge of their social media account not cretins. Far better to lobby than rage like that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    "Keir Starmer refuses to meet 99-year-old war veteran who had £60k wiped off her pension
    ‘Frozen pensioner’ denied meeting after travelling 5,000 miles – and campaigning for decades
    Mattie Brignal"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/state-pensions/keir-starmer-refuses-to-meet-99-year-old-war-veteran/
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,879
    FPT:
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    SteveS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ratters said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Wow.

    Blistering paper by Dieter Helm on the current situation with renewables and UK (and world) move towards net zero etc etc.

    Ed Miliband will most certainly not enjoy reading this one.

    https://dieterhelm.co.uk/energy-climate/climate-realism-time-for-a-re-set/

    This bit is both true, and wildly misleading:



    Specifically, solar is now so spectacularly cheap, that it is simply going to supplant the vast majority of fossil fuels, almost irrespective of government diktat.

    The problem is that energy use is so elastic. As soon as energy becomes cheaper, we come up with new ways of using the stuff. So it never gets very cheap and fossil fuels remain economical.
    Well, I agree that - in the medium term - energy use is pretty elastic. But it's not *that* elastic. Per capita energy consumption in the developed world peaked in the early 1970s.

    And I think it's easy to miss just how cheap solar is becoming. If it's a tenth of the price per KwH of energy of gas or oil, then really, how can fossil fuels compete?
    They can compete by being more controllable. Solar can't be switched on at will.
    Yep, and they'll have a role - particularly gas.

    But gas will only be used at night and when the wind isn't blowing.
    If solar is so cheap that everything else becomes uneconomic, how will all of that infrastructure be funded?
    All of what infrastructure?

    The UK has gas peaking plants - OCGTs - that work perhaps 20 hours a year, when the electricity price is at its very highest level.

    Modern gas plants are incredibly inexpensive to run. Unlike coal, they are low people, low maintenance, and highly automated.
    You said "when the wind isn't blowing". Building and maintaining wind turbines isn't cheap.
    Ummm: I thought you were talking about natural gas?

    Irrespective, what does the cost of building have to do with anything? If the guy who built the wind turbines doesn't make his cost of capital or goes bust, then the wind turbines still exist, and still generate power.

    There are many power plants in the UK that went bust at one point or another, usually due to over-leverage, and then got picked up for pennies on the dollar.
    I was talking about everything else in the context of your panglossian view of solar.

    The lifespan of a turbine is only about 20-25 years. If they're an essential part of the mix despite solar, then how will the economics stack up if the price of electricity becomes "spectacularly cheap"?
    Oh, in the long run, wind doesn't make sense either. I wouldn't be queuing up to invest in wind turbines today.

    But here's the chart:



    That's solar price per watt over time. Basically, it's dropped by 20% every year. (Wind by contrast has improved by maybe 2%.)

    A bet against solar is a bet that that 20% stops. And it might. But you'd be a brave man betting against it.
    Should the likes of Spain, Portugal not be building huge wind farms with interconnectors to the rest of Europe?

    Build 500%+ of their own electricity needs and become huge energy exporters.
    You mean solar?

    And yes, they should.
    Which implies you don't think domestic solar can be sufficient, otherwise the transport costs wouldn't be worth it.
    Not necessarily.

    In the long term, solar panels will be so cheap that we'll cover the UK in them.

    But in the medium term, panels in North Africa and the Iberian peninsular make perfect sense. And they'll keep being useful even after the UK is covered in panels, because daylight hours are so much longer in winter there.
    The issue with solar is that while California's electricity demand spikes in the summer when the sun is shining and the air con is going on, the UK's demands spike in winter when it is dark 16 hours of a day and the heating is on.

    Solar absolutely is great at marginal costs when it works, but I don't see it as being as reliable as eg wind etc personally.
    Three or four years I would have agreed with you. However now the cost of batteries (sometimes living inside an EV) is plummeting.

    We’ve not yet got a battery, but I know plenty of smug MC families bragging about their low or even zero electricity bills.

    Give it a few years and this will be widespread. Doesn’t help the buggers living in tenements though
    Don't get me wrong, I'm a big believer in combining batteries with renewables.

    Batteries will help smooth out power fluctuations for a few hours, to a few days. Great for eg night (in summer for solar) or when the wind isn't blowing (for wind).

    What batteries won't do is smooth out seasons and that's my problem. We aren't going to be storing power from sunshine from July to be using in January.

    For us to generate enough electricity to get us through midwinter from solar we're going to be needing to generate orders of magnitude more than we need in summer, because generation is going to be that right down in winter as demand surges.

    Especially if we're moving to electric heating like heat pumps etc - the seasonal differential is already bad enough before that.
    What's interesting is developing energy storage doesn't appear to be good value, because the marginal gains from doing so are very small compared with just sticking more turbines up.

    This is some back-of-envelope calculations using day average consumption in 2024, so illustrative only:

    Days self-sufficient, 2024
    • Renewable generation - WIth no storage/With 200GWh storage/With 400GWh storage
    • Current capacity - 5%/6%/6%
    • 2x capacity - 50%/61%/67%
    • 3x - 79%/87%/96%
    • 4x - 90%/97%/98%
    For context, we current have 2.2x wind/solar capacity awaiting or under construction, or 3.4x if you include that in the planning process.

    I can't find anything reliable for battery storage currently in the planning process, but it's perhaps 100GWh? The government reckons we will need 200GWh by 2040. That makes it all look quite positive, but doesn't take into account the increase in EVs and heat pumps - the demand side.
    FPT: One thing not mentioned in this conversation was different battery technologies - Lithium having a short lifetime, limited cycles, fire risk etc.

    Even something like Nickel Iron (NiFe) as featured in Ice Station Zebra, and there are various others.

    We really want a life of 5k-10k charging cycles, which in a house battery is 15-20 years not 5-10 years.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    edited December 4
    PRO TRAVEL TIP

    The coffee in Colombia is excellent. No, really. It’s bloody good. If you ever make it out here - try the coffee. Remember who told you first - “Colombian coffee” - that’s a trade secret happily handed on

    Next up: pasta in Italy
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379
    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    "Close to stalling" is the same thing as "growing, but very slowly", isn't it?
    Yes and It is decelerating growth too.
    Isn't that a third order measure (or a second order derivative? I forget the words)

    Absolute value = how big it is
    Growth = how big is the change
    Decelerating (or accelerating) growth = how big is the change in the change
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    MattW said:

    How much money does a political party need to operate? I'd argue there should be a limit to spending as well, just as there is at election time.

    So we can say if they stand in (say) 600 of the 650 constituencies, then they must be able to raise the election spending limit (currently £54,010 ?) times the number of constituencies, as at present. If there are by-elections, the spending cap increases by £54,010 if they stand a candidate.

    But a political party is not just about MPs and elections; there are a whole host of other centralised jobs that need doing. But how much should be budgeted for that? Again, I'd argue that should be an amount that scales on how many constituencies a party stood in at the last GE. To help smaller parties, this should be a minimum of (say) 20. So they can still raise some funds.

    So the parties can raise money up to that total value, but no more. Having a maximum limit would IMO limit the ability for corruption in the system.

    (This is a broad outline only)

    The problem with using the last election as the basis for spending at the next election is that it builds in incumbency bias - not in terms of actual seats won of course but in terms of the most well established parties.

    So, for example, a moderate centre right party grows over the next 4 years but finds that it is extremely limited in its funding possibilities compared to, for example, Reform or the Greens, because they stood in most constituencies at the previous election.
    Yep, there will be problems with any system. But my broad question remains: how much does a political party actually need?
    I think your basic calculations are sound but I would say that all parties should be treated equally and be given the same overall limits.
    One major problem there is drawing a cordon sanitaire round the edge.

    How do you deal, for example with Greenpeace advertising around green issues, or Migration Something Something doing the same around asylum or the ODA budget? If it's not under control of the party, it can't really be linked to it.
    It could be regulated. Maybe ban outright third-party campaigns directly on behalf of active participants (what counts as 'on behalf of'? Ultimately, that's something regulators or courts would have to decide on a case-by-case basis); and regulate spending at quite a low level on public campaigns designed to influence during election periods.

    Getting the wording right is key, and difficult, but Britain certainly needs to avoid any import of American PAC-style politics, to evade spending limits.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864

    kinabalu said:

    "Once it had reformed council tax, Labour should dare to charge capital gains tax on everyone selling their primary residence. Treating bricks and mortar like ordinary purchases would stop the “property ladder” being a tax-free nest egg where savings are invested unproductively. Can you imagine the outrage?"

    Toynbee - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/03/george-osborne-wealth-tax-labour-inheritocracy-work-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves

    Yep. I can. One term would be guaranteed.

    Probably true, you touch houses at your peril. It's a good point though. For home ownership to be the main route to personal wealth creation and at the same be blocked off to most young people without a very good job or parental backing is a pretty suboptimal situation.
    Yep, it is a mess and that's for sure.

    Build enough housing to stop prices rising. It's not complicated.

    Either you do this now, or in a few years either

    1) The FuckTheNewts Party will build on the greenest greenbelt in their opponents constituencies, using primary legislation
    2) The DeportImmigrants Party will deport lots of people, using primary legislation.

    You've got a chance, now, to implement a sensible solution that is compatible with liberal democratic values.
    Yes but it is not just shortage of homes adding to house prices, as you say immigration is a factor adding to demand and more 2 earner couples getting joint mortgages than 50 years ago when there were more stay at home mothers also pushes up prices
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632
    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Totally agree, bankers, like lawyers, are key to a successful economy,

    Britain’s ‘get the f---ers’ attitude has hurt banking, warns former Barclays chief

    Bob Diamond said British banks suffered ‘biblical justice’ at the hands of politicians after the financial crisis


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/03/britains-attitude-has-hurt-banking-former-barclays-chief/

    IIRC the money lenders were kicked out not bailed out by Jesus.
    Bush to be fair to him kicked out Lehmans with no bailout
    They would not have needed a bailout if it was Lehman Sisters.
    I worked for several banks and I'd say Lehman (where I did 3 years) had the most macho aggressive culture.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,420
    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    "Close to stalling" is the same thing as "growing, but very slowly", isn't it?
    Yes and It is decelerating growth too.
    Isn't that a third order measure (or a second order derivative? I forget the words)

    Absolute value = how big it is
    Growth = how big is the change
    Decelerating (or accelerating) growth = how big is the change in the change
    You want to get into jerk next.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics)
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,080
    Andy_JS said:

    slade said:

    Just 6 local by-elections tomorrow. We have Lab defences in Cardiff, Stirling, and Wokingham; an SNP defence in Glasgow; and a Lib Dem defence in South Oxfordshire.

    A Labour seat in Wokingham is a rarity. It'll probably go to either the LDs or Tories.
    There were all-out elections in Wokingham in May. Shinfield was a split result with 2 Lab and I Con elected. I expect a Con gain this time therefore.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,972
    Andy_JS said:

    "Keir Starmer refuses to meet 99-year-old war veteran who had £60k wiped off her pension
    ‘Frozen pensioner’ denied meeting after travelling 5,000 miles – and campaigning for decades
    Mattie Brignal"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/state-pensions/keir-starmer-refuses-to-meet-99-year-old-war-veteran/

    Good for him. He shouldn't meet her.

    She knew the rules.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,879
    edited December 4
    FPT:
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Toby Young does not understand the concept you humans call "friendship"

    https://bsky.app/profile/benbartlett.bsky.social/post/3lcd6cod4j22o

    That's really funny.
    The other great article, which I'd never seen before, was titled "Does anyone believe what my wife wrote about me".

    On the reasonable assumption it wasn't complimentary, QTWTAIY.

    It's also a bit sad.
    In this spirit, one of the much-missed things from Twitter which needs to be on Bluesky is the "So Much Guardian" feed.

    https://x.com/somuchguardian

    I'll use one as my image quota:


    We also need a Toby-Morey feed.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,879
    Sean_F said:

    "Once it had reformed council tax, Labour should dare to charge capital gains tax on everyone selling their primary residence. Treating bricks and mortar like ordinary purchases would stop the “property ladder” being a tax-free nest egg where savings are invested unproductively. Can you imagine the outrage?"

    Toynbee - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/03/george-osborne-wealth-tax-labour-inheritocracy-work-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves

    Yep. I can. One term would be guaranteed.

    Of a certainty.
    It's a Ming Vase that needs to be broken, however.
  • Leon said:

    PRO TRAVEL TIP

    The coffee in Colombia is excellent. No, really. It’s bloody good. If you ever make it out here - try the coffee. Remember who told you first - “Colombian coffee” - that’s a trade secret happily handed on

    Next up: pasta in Italy

    You know what else is excellent in Colombia?
  • It was interesting listening to Tim Montgomerie on Sky this morning about his defection to Reform which he said was a result of the immigration figures but he also said he doesn't agree with everything Farage says and unlike Reform he supports increasing foreign aid

    He went on to say that in time, some accommodation between the Conservatives and Reform is quite likely which seemed as if he was hoping to act as a bridge between the two

    It does appear from recent polling that the combined total of the two is gaining on the left and it would change politics if this happened, and not in a good way fror labour
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Totally agree, bankers, like lawyers, are key to a successful economy,

    Britain’s ‘get the f---ers’ attitude has hurt banking, warns former Barclays chief

    Bob Diamond said British banks suffered ‘biblical justice’ at the hands of politicians after the financial crisis


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/03/britains-attitude-has-hurt-banking-former-barclays-chief/

    IIRC the money lenders were kicked out not bailed out by Jesus.
    Well, no, he kicked out the money changers.
    Another good reason to get rid of cash.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    Nigelb said:

    "Kherson’s civilians have been, since midsummer, the target of an experiment without precedent in modern European warfare: a concerted Russian campaign to empty a city by stalking its residents with attack drones.

    The killer machines, sometimes by the swarm, hover above homes, buzz into buildings and chase people down streets in their cars, riding bicycles or simply on foot. The targets are not soldiers, or tanks, but civilian life...

    Since mid-July, Kherson and its neighboring villages along the western side of the Dnipro river have suffered more than 9,500 attacks with small drones, killing at least 37 people and injuring hundreds more, according to Prokudin, regional prosecutors and police."

    https://x.com/RALee85/status/1864197164152365094

    Very similar component of the Gaza special military operation.
    Ridiculous.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news, the Russian military ships that were docked in Tartus, Syria, all appear to have left.

    I wonder why?

    It looks as if the Assad regime is crumbling and Russia has decided it can no longer afford to sustain it. We have yet to discover if this proves a good thing or not.

    Meanwhile it looks as if President Yoon is going to be impeached as early as today for his martial law efforts.

    Interesting times and Trump hasn't even taken office yet.
    In fact the Russians have killed 400 of the Islamist militant rebels
    https://news.sky.com/story/syria-says-its-strikes-with-russia-have-killed-at-least-400-insurgents-over-past-24-hours-13265595

    The fact Russia has withdrawn 1 ship from Tartus means little.

    We of course cannot afford for the Assad regime to be replaced by the Al Qaeda linked rebels either
    One ship?
    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1864065378034266157
    https://defence-blog.com/russian-warships-leave-syrias-key-naval-base/

    You notice that your story is about Syrian claims. I might suggest to you that the claims might be somewhat bogus, or include innocent civilians as 'insurgents'.
    Only 1 confirmed but I know you are an apologist for the Al Qaeda linked Syrian militant rebels
    No, I'm not an 'apologist' for them. The only group I have much sympathy for are the Kurds, and I have reservations over them because of the links with the PKK. I have stated this on here many times.

    I will respond in kind: you are an apologist for the Assad regime, which has used chemical weapons on civilians in the past, and which is working closely with Russia and Iran.

    Fair enough if you don't support the rebels. But that does not mean you should support Assad's regime either. In that case, don't support anyone, and give your prayers to the innocent civilians caught between these groups.

    But supporting Assad? Shame on you.
    You are an apologist for Al Qaeda linked militants in Syria, because if Assad falls they are who will replace him not the Kurds. Endangering our national security far more than Assad ever could.

    Shame on you
    It’s not pushing propaganda to point out that Assad’s regime is one of the most murderous in the region, is now tottering, and its fall would be a blow to Russia.

    That does not mean its replacement would be any better.
    Compared to Iran or Taliban controlled Afghanistan or Hamas controlled Gaza or Saudi Arabia, Assad's regime is arguably relatively moderate.

    Its fall would be a disaster for us and the West as much as Russia, as Syria would be taken over by Al Qaeda linked militants and would provide a major base for jihadi terrorism to export to western cities
    Assad's regime is not moderate.

    It's a combination of weak, incompetent and completely amoral - to the extent he invited in the armed forces of two of the world's more noxious regimes (Russia and Iran) to maintain his otherwise crumbling regime. And was happy to have them conduct mass bombing and chemical warfare campaigns against his own civilians.

    We have little idea who would take over if the regime fell. The opposition is a disparate bunch ranging from extreme islamists to democratic moderates.
    But the point is the regime is completely unable to sustain itself, whatever we do.

    And the disaster has already been visited on the west. 20% of the entire population are refugees into Turkey and Europe - driven there by a Russian backed regime. That has already severely destabilised the entire EU.

    You basically have ignored the history of the last decade and a half.

    Assad invited them in because they were on offer. He would have invited the West in instead had we bid for the job. In retrospect, it wouldn't have been the worst idea. Indeed, I think I made the observation at the time, though the politics of it would have been horrible.

    Nonetheless, it's a model the West would do well to learn. The era when it could dominate the globe and, relatedly, insist on its values as a price of doing business is over. We will need much more in future to choose between promoting values and protecting interests. Much of Africa is now lost to the West because it's much easier for them to deal mostly with the likes of China and Russia who don't care about their domestic agenda; indeed, who find it convenient for local leaderships to be corrupt and unaccountable.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1864290975230607695

    According to Reuters, Trump's team proposes three "peace plans" for the war in Ukraine. None of these plans include Ukraine joining NATO. The proposed plans are:
    - Freezing current front lines (General Keith Kellogg's plan)
    - Creating a demilitarized zone (Vice President Jay D. Vance's plan)
    - Autonomous zones in eastern Ukraine (Former intelligence chief Richard Grenell's plan)

    Trump is willing to provide more weapons to Ukraine only if peace talks begin and warns Russia of increased support for Kyiv if they refuse.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    Keir Starmer slams “open borders” Kemi. More red meat for the nativist Labour base.

    https://x.com/maxtempers/status/1864284002368069695

    Well you can't just fling open the borders and max out the credit card like the Tories always do. That's a route to the poorhouse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news, the Russian military ships that were docked in Tartus, Syria, all appear to have left.

    I wonder why?

    It looks as if the Assad regime is crumbling and Russia has decided it can no longer afford to sustain it. We have yet to discover if this proves a good thing or not.

    Meanwhile it looks as if President Yoon is going to be impeached as early as today for his martial law efforts.

    Interesting times and Trump hasn't even taken office yet.
    In fact the Russians have killed 400 of the Islamist militant rebels
    https://news.sky.com/story/syria-says-its-strikes-with-russia-have-killed-at-least-400-insurgents-over-past-24-hours-13265595

    The fact Russia has withdrawn 1 ship from Tartus means little.

    We of course cannot afford for the Assad regime to be replaced by the Al Qaeda linked rebels either
    One ship?
    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1864065378034266157
    https://defence-blog.com/russian-warships-leave-syrias-key-naval-base/

    You notice that your story is about Syrian claims. I might suggest to you that the claims might be somewhat bogus, or include innocent civilians as 'insurgents'.
    Only 1 confirmed but I know you are an apologist for the Al Qaeda linked Syrian militant rebels
    No, I'm not an 'apologist' for them. The only group I have much sympathy for are the Kurds, and I have reservations over them because of the links with the PKK. I have stated this on here many times.

    I will respond in kind: you are an apologist for the Assad regime, which has used chemical weapons on civilians in the past, and which is working closely with Russia and Iran.

    Fair enough if you don't support the rebels. But that does not mean you should support Assad's regime either. In that case, don't support anyone, and give your prayers to the innocent civilians caught between these groups.

    But supporting Assad? Shame on you.
    You are an apologist for Al Qaeda linked militants in Syria, because if Assad falls they are who will replace him not the Kurds. Endangering our national security far more than Assad ever could.

    Shame on you
    It’s not pushing propaganda to point out that Assad’s regime is one of the most murderous in the region, is now tottering, and its fall would be a blow to Russia.

    That does not mean its replacement would be any better.
    Compared to Iran or Taliban controlled Afghanistan or Hamas controlled Gaza or Saudi Arabia, Assad's regime is arguably relatively moderate.

    Its fall would be a disaster for us and the West as much as Russia, as Syria would be taken over by Al Qaeda linked militants and would provide a major base for jihadi terrorism to export to western cities
    Assad's regime is not moderate.

    It's a combination of weak, incompetent and completely amoral - to the extent he invited in the armed forces of two of the world's more noxious regimes (Russia and Iran) to maintain his otherwise crumbling regime. And was happy to have them conduct mass bombing and chemical warfare campaigns against his own civilians.

    We have little idea who would take over if the regime fell. The opposition is a disparate bunch ranging from extreme islamists to democratic moderates.
    But the point is the regime is completely unable to sustain itself, whatever we do.

    And the disaster has already been visited on the west. 20% of the entire population are refugees into Turkey and Europe - driven there by a Russian backed regime. That has already severely destabilised the entire EU.

    You basically have ignored the history of the last decade and a half.

    Assad invited them in because they were on offer. He would have invited the West in instead had we bid for the job. In retrospect, it wouldn't have been the worst idea. Indeed, I think I made the observation at the time, though the politics of it would have been horrible.

    Nonetheless, it's a model the West would do well to learn. The era when it could dominate the globe and, relatedly, insist on its values as a price of doing business is over. We will need much more in future to choose between promoting values and protecting interests. Much of Africa is now lost to the West because it's much easier for them to deal mostly with the likes of China and Russia who don't care about their domestic agenda; indeed, who find it convenient for local leaderships to be corrupt and unaccountable.
    Indeed, it is back to 19th century realpolitik if the West has any sense, it is not going to get liberal perfectionism from most nations in the developed world but it does need strong relationships with them to contain Russia, China and Islamic militancy
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited December 4

    It was interesting listening to Tim Montgomerie on Sky this morning about his defection to Reform which he said was a result of the immigration figures but he also said he doesn't agree with everything Farage says and unlike Reform he supports increasing foreign aid

    He went on to say that in time, some accommodation between the Conservatives and Reform is quite likely which seemed as if he was hoping to act as a bridge between the two

    It does appear from recent polling that the combined total of the two is gaining on the left and it would change politics if this happened, and not in a good way fror labour

    Yes, Labour will likely need LD and Green support next time in a hung parliament to keep out the Tories and Reform.

    Equally the Badenoch Tories have next to no chance of a majority so will need Farage's party's support to have any chance of forming a government
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Leon said:

    PRO TRAVEL TIP

    The coffee in Colombia is excellent. No, really. It’s bloody good. If you ever make it out here - try the coffee. Remember who told you first - “Colombian coffee” - that’s a trade secret happily handed on

    Next up: pasta in Italy

    Are there any problems with safety wrt visiting Colombia? Boring question I know.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    "Close to stalling" is the same thing as "growing, but very slowly", isn't it?
    Yes and It is decelerating growth too.
    Isn't that a third order measure (or a second order derivative? I forget the words)

    Absolute value = how big it is
    Growth = how big is the change
    Decelerating (or accelerating) growth = how big is the change in the change
    You want to get into jerk next.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics)
    Hah! You cannot defeat me in obscure terms! I've used "jiffy", "chronon", "kurtosis" and "Weltanschauungen" in conversation.

    Pause

    God, I'm boring... :)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    Taz said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    6m
    It was always going to be hard for Kemi Badenoch. But at the moment she simply can’t assert herself in the way necessary to dominate PMQs. It’s becoming a big problem for her.

    Why was it going to be hard for her? At the moment Hodges can't get anything right. It doesn't seem a problem though as he has a loyal fan base for some reason.
    Hodges is doubly wrong because MPs do listen to Kemi. It's what she says that is the problem.
    I am not sure her performance at PMQs is a problem. Precious few people bother with it.

    But in an election campaign it really will matter. Although if she is up against Sir Drear then it will be like Rishi v SKS all over again.
    Kemi's (and any leader's) PMQs problem is that the people who do care are backbench MPs with a vote on the next leader. That was IDS's downfall. He actually did rather well at the ballot box, better than Michael Howard!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    "Close to stalling" is the same thing as "growing, but very slowly", isn't it?
    Yes and It is decelerating growth too.
    Isn't that a third order measure (or a second order derivative? I forget the words)

    Absolute value = how big it is
    Growth = how big is the change
    Decelerating (or accelerating) growth = how big is the change in the change
    You want to get into jerk next.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics)
    Hah! You cannot defeat me in obscure terms! I've used "jiffy", "chronon", "kurtosis" and "Weltanschauungen" in conversation.

    Pause

    God, I'm boring... :)
    Have you used Syzygy?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496

    Leon said:

    PRO TRAVEL TIP

    The coffee in Colombia is excellent. No, really. It’s bloody good. If you ever make it out here - try the coffee. Remember who told you first - “Colombian coffee” - that’s a trade secret happily handed on

    Next up: pasta in Italy

    You know what else is excellent in Colombia?
    In my experience: fruit juice, mojitos, and notable cleavages
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,879
    edited December 4
    I note that the Government are looking into two of the proposals on my list of "things to do in Defence". :smile:

    1 - Expansion of Cadets. There are all kind of benefits to that.

    This is something the Conservatives did quite effectively imo.

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-considering-expanding-army-cadet-numbers/

    2 - Reviewing Pilot Training.

    This was a Cameron Comprehensive Cockup, imo.

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/mod-exploring-fast-jet-training-capabilities/

    Claim the wins, or somebody else will !
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Keir Starmer refuses to meet 99-year-old war veteran who had £60k wiped off her pension
    ‘Frozen pensioner’ denied meeting after travelling 5,000 miles – and campaigning for decades
    Mattie Brignal"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/state-pensions/keir-starmer-refuses-to-meet-99-year-old-war-veteran/

    Good for him. He shouldn't meet her.

    She knew the rules.

    Indeed. Although I have always wondered why the rule is there. Obviously it saves some money, but as it is a supposedly contributory benefit I don't understand what the argument is for giving some people a lower entitlement based on where they live.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    PRO TRAVEL TIP

    The coffee in Colombia is excellent. No, really. It’s bloody good. If you ever make it out here - try the coffee. Remember who told you first - “Colombian coffee” - that’s a trade secret happily handed on

    Next up: pasta in Italy

    Are there any problems with safety wrt visiting Colombia? Boring question I know.
    Not boring at all. I love talking about travel. And yes it is an issue almost everywhere. Lots of crime lots of criminals lots of armed police

    It shouldn’t prevent you travelling here - it’s a vast, compelling and beautiful country and so much is undiscovered. And did I mention the mojitos?

    The paradox is that for Colombians it is much much safer than it was 15 or 30 years ago. Back then you wouldn’t even have considered a “holiday in Santa Marta” - no more than you would consider going to Syria now

    But it’s calmed down enormously so for Colombians it probably feels like Switzerland now. The upside of this is that huge parts of the country are only just opening up - you can feel like a pioneer
  • viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    "Close to stalling" is the same thing as "growing, but very slowly", isn't it?
    Yes and It is decelerating growth too.
    Isn't that a third order measure (or a second order derivative? I forget the words)

    Absolute value = how big it is
    Growth = how big is the change
    Decelerating (or accelerating) growth = how big is the change in the change
    You want to get into jerk next.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics)
    Hah! You cannot defeat me in obscure terms! I've used "jiffy", "chronon", "kurtosis" and "Weltanschauungen" in conversation.

    Pause

    God, I'm boring... :)
    I regularly use obscurer terms, foreign languages, pop culture references, and single entendres in my professional reports.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    "Close to stalling" is the same thing as "growing, but very slowly", isn't it?
    Yes and It is decelerating growth too.
    Isn't that a third order measure (or a second order derivative? I forget the words)

    Absolute value = how big it is
    Growth = how big is the change
    Decelerating (or accelerating) growth = how big is the change in the change
    You want to get into jerk next.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics)
    Hah! You cannot defeat me in obscure terms! I've used "jiffy", "chronon", "kurtosis" and "Weltanschauungen" in conversation.

    Pause

    God, I'm boring... :)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shake_(unit)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news, the Russian military ships that were docked in Tartus, Syria, all appear to have left.

    I wonder why?

    It looks as if the Assad regime is crumbling and Russia has decided it can no longer afford to sustain it. We have yet to discover if this proves a good thing or not.

    Meanwhile it looks as if President Yoon is going to be impeached as early as today for his martial law efforts.

    Interesting times and Trump hasn't even taken office yet.
    In fact the Russians have killed 400 of the Islamist militant rebels
    https://news.sky.com/story/syria-says-its-strikes-with-russia-have-killed-at-least-400-insurgents-over-past-24-hours-13265595

    The fact Russia has withdrawn 1 ship from Tartus means little.

    We of course cannot afford for the Assad regime to be replaced by the Al Qaeda linked rebels either
    One ship?
    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1864065378034266157
    https://defence-blog.com/russian-warships-leave-syrias-key-naval-base/

    You notice that your story is about Syrian claims. I might suggest to you that the claims might be somewhat bogus, or include innocent civilians as 'insurgents'.
    Only 1 confirmed but I know you are an apologist for the Al Qaeda linked Syrian militant rebels
    No, I'm not an 'apologist' for them. The only group I have much sympathy for are the Kurds, and I have reservations over them because of the links with the PKK. I have stated this on here many times.

    I will respond in kind: you are an apologist for the Assad regime, which has used chemical weapons on civilians in the past, and which is working closely with Russia and Iran.

    Fair enough if you don't support the rebels. But that does not mean you should support Assad's regime either. In that case, don't support anyone, and give your prayers to the innocent civilians caught between these groups.

    But supporting Assad? Shame on you.
    You are an apologist for Al Qaeda linked militants in Syria, because if Assad falls they are who will replace him not the Kurds. Endangering our national security far more than Assad ever could.

    Shame on you
    It’s not pushing propaganda to point out that Assad’s regime is one of the most murderous in the region, is now tottering, and its fall would be a blow to Russia.

    That does not mean its replacement would be any better.
    How do you work out that the Assad regime is 'one of the most murderous in the region'? Are any of the others engaged in a civil war? Comparing apples with apples, whilst undoubtedly repressive toward threats to the regime, I doubt a peacetime comparison would show this to be remotely true.
    His murderous acts started during peacetime.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405
    edited December 4
    Quite funny that Ireland has finished counting it's votes before the USA (New York has added 260k according to my numbers today) even though their election was almost a month later.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited December 4

    Taz said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    6m
    It was always going to be hard for Kemi Badenoch. But at the moment she simply can’t assert herself in the way necessary to dominate PMQs. It’s becoming a big problem for her.

    Why was it going to be hard for her? At the moment Hodges can't get anything right. It doesn't seem a problem though as he has a loyal fan base for some reason.
    Hodges is doubly wrong because MPs do listen to Kemi. It's what she says that is the problem.
    I am not sure her performance at PMQs is a problem. Precious few people bother with it.

    But in an election campaign it really will matter. Although if she is up against Sir Drear then it will be like Rishi v SKS all over again.
    Kemi's (and any leader's) PMQs problem is that the people who do care are backbench MPs with a vote on the next leader. That was IDS's downfall. He actually did rather well at the ballot box, better than Michael Howard!
    Yes, voters don't give a shit about PMQs, if they did Hague would have won the 2001 GE by a landslide.

    As you note though MPs do and that was why they replaced IDS with Howard even though he got no higher a Tory voteshare in 2005 than IDS was polling in 2003. Kemi does have the advantage over IDS though she won the Tory MPs vote in the final round as well as the members vote so will be less likely to be removed by her parliamentary colleagues.

    That doesn't mean she doesn't need to work on it and think on her feet better. Starmer won by miles today as her questions on Haigh and immigration were easily brushed off by the PM's quips on Sunak and Johnson's covid lockdown breach fines and Badenoch's previous support for more work visas
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    edited December 4

    Who scripts Kemi at PMQs? Her conviction politicians joke ran into Tory PMs' convictions.

    Exactly. She can’t own all the blame herself. She is probably suffering from a team being like minded clones, all nodding it sounds great, rather than arguments what is strong punchy script and what isn’t.

    It’s as we discussed with Big G yesterday, regardless what Kemi question is, Labour is waiting with the record of governments Kemi was in and what she personally done and said when in them. Meanwhile on social media, the attack is she’s inexperienced, young, gaff after gaff and not landing blows.

    So it’s difficult.

    Kemi’s biggest gaff today was not the convictions thing, it was declaring the Conservatives are there to stop Labour wrecking the economy, and looked surprised to be met with wall of laughter, but she should also note a clear intake of breath from those beside and behind her - there has to be sharper more self aware ways of attacking Labour and giving voters clear blue water, than standing there saying things like that?

    I agree with HY - PMQs are shaping up to be the major pointless snoozefest this parliament - the most uninteresting Parliament for PMQs ever. The only point of interest at moment, will the new young bowler Kemi take her first wicket of the season.

    It was complete waste of our time today. When Starmer talks, it feels like that interminable time waiting for the washing machine to finish, just waiting for it to be over quick so you can get on with something important - you could replace Ed Davey with a plushy, and get a sharper more effective “conviction politician” - the spiky SNP agitators sent to the margins - and all the 8 million Labour backbenchers are like escapee’s from a locked room of mad inventions that turned out dangerously wrong. They are just the weirdest people.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    PRO TRAVEL TIP

    The coffee in Colombia is excellent. No, really. It’s bloody good. If you ever make it out here - try the coffee. Remember who told you first - “Colombian coffee” - that’s a trade secret happily handed on

    Next up: pasta in Italy

    You know what else is excellent in Colombia?
    In my experience: fruit juice, mojitos, and notable cleavages
    Leon is a notable fan of Masterchef.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    Pulpstar said:

    Quite funny that Ireland has finished counting it's votes before the USA (New York has added 260k according to my numbers today) even though their election was almost a month later.

    Betfair's vote percentage markets are still open.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,434
    "Assad forces abandoned dozens of MBTs, IFVs and trucks on the Khanaser road, probably because of lack of fuel.

    It is so reminiscent when Russians abandoned countless of gear after the failure in taking Kyiv."

    https://x.com/Tendar/status/1864257999172219241

    Feels as though it might be legit.

    (One of the responses is hilarious; "Russia didn’t fail in Kiev - they withdrew because of Istanbul peace talks.")
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,879
    edited December 4
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    "Close to stalling" is the same thing as "growing, but very slowly", isn't it?
    Yes and It is decelerating growth too.
    Isn't that a third order measure (or a second order derivative? I forget the words)

    Absolute value = how big it is
    Growth = how big is the change
    Decelerating (or accelerating) growth = how big is the change in the change
    You want to get into jerk next.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics)
    Hah! You cannot defeat me in obscure terms! I've used "jiffy", "chronon", "kurtosis" and "Weltanschauungen" in conversation.

    Pause

    God, I'm boring... :)
    "Jiffy" is obscure? Who knew? Here we abbreviate it to "jiff", as in "bak in a jiff".

    Using that one is easy-peasy-lemon-squeezy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    I’m doing my favourite thing. I’m in a car with a private driver taking me across a fabulously exotic country to a famously remote town. In the warm sunshine. In December. On half a tramadol
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144
    HYUFD said:

    theakes said:

    Really surprised to hear Tim Montgomerie has joined Reform.
    The Tories really are in trouble if her has taken this step.

    Montie worked for Hague and IDS and backed Jenrick, he is a respected conservative thinker but doesn't have a great record backing winners
    But he’s a blogger, journalist and columnist - not someone seeking elected office - and he clearly sniffs where the money and opportunities are going to be in coming years. Your party is heading towards becoming a dead end.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    6m
    It was always going to be hard for Kemi Badenoch. But at the moment she simply can’t assert herself in the way necessary to dominate PMQs. It’s becoming a big problem for her.

    Why was it going to be hard for her? At the moment Hodges can't get anything right. It doesn't seem a problem though as he has a loyal fan base for some reason.
    Hodges is doubly wrong because MPs do listen to Kemi. It's what she says that is the problem.
    I am not sure her performance at PMQs is a problem. Precious few people bother with it.

    But in an election campaign it really will matter. Although if she is up against Sir Drear then it will be like Rishi v SKS all over again.
    Kemi's (and any leader's) PMQs problem is that the people who do care are backbench MPs with a vote on the next leader. That was IDS's downfall. He actually did rather well at the ballot box, better than Michael Howard!
    Yes, voters don't give a shit about PMQs, if they did Hague would have won the 2001 GE by a landslide.

    As you note though MPs do and that was why they replaced IDS with Howard even though he got no higher a Tory voteshare in 2005 than IDS was polling in 2003. Kemi does have the advantage over IDS though she won the Tory MPs vote in the final round as well as the members vote so will be less likely to be removed by her parliamentary colleagues.

    That doesn't mean she doesn't need to work on it and think on her feet better. Starmer won by miles today as her questions on Haigh and immigration were easily brushed off by the PM's quips on Sunak and Johnson's covid lockdown breach fines and Badenoch's previous support for more work visas
    ‘and Badenoch's previous support for more work visas‘

    Why did she support more work visa’s, with Conservative governments immigration as rampant already as it was and costing the party many votes?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    I’m doing my favourite thing. I’m in a car with a private driver taking me across a fabulously exotic country a famously remote city

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    PRO TRAVEL TIP

    The coffee in Colombia is excellent. No, really. It’s bloody good. If you ever make it out here - try the coffee. Remember who told you first - “Colombian coffee” - that’s a trade secret happily handed on

    Next up: pasta in Italy

    You know what else is excellent in Colombia?
    In my experience: fruit juice, mojitos, and notable cleavages
    Leon is a notable fan of Masterchef.
    I am

    And I’m also speaking truth to power. Colombian women are generally rather attractive - and they are conspicuously mammacious
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    Pulpstar said:

    Quite funny that Ireland has finished counting it's votes before the USA (New York has added 260k according to my numbers today) even though their election was almost a month later.

    There’s still counting going on for US House seats in California as well, including a number of marginals.

    Nothing like taking more than a month to count the votes, as a way of demonstrating the integrity of the election process. Florida had it right, all done and dusted in three hours same as every other civilised country.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144

    kinabalu said:

    "Once it had reformed council tax, Labour should dare to charge capital gains tax on everyone selling their primary residence. Treating bricks and mortar like ordinary purchases would stop the “property ladder” being a tax-free nest egg where savings are invested unproductively. Can you imagine the outrage?"

    Toynbee - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/03/george-osborne-wealth-tax-labour-inheritocracy-work-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves

    Yep. I can. One term would be guaranteed.

    Probably true, you touch houses at your peril. It's a good point though. For home ownership to be the main route to personal wealth creation and at the same be blocked off to most young people without a very good job or parental backing is a pretty suboptimal situation.
    Yep, it is a mess and that's for sure.

    Some Tory woman was on R4 just now trying to explain how asking the NHS for more productivity improvements than Labour is, meant that the Tories could actually increase NHS spending by more than Labour, despite handing it less money in total (since they need to pay for their opposition to Labour’s budget fundraising measures).

    Good luck with that one! They must really think we voters are idiots.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    theakes said:

    Really surprised to hear Tim Montgomerie has joined Reform.
    The Tories really are in trouble if her has taken this step.

    Montie worked for Hague and IDS and backed Jenrick, he is a respected conservative thinker but doesn't have a great record backing winners
    But he’s a blogger, journalist and columnist - not someone seeking elected office - and he clearly sniffs where the money and opportunities are going to be in coming years. Your party is heading towards becoming a dead end.
    Not entirely, at the moment the Tories are still the choice for middle class right of centre voters, even if Reform are becoming the choice for working class right of centre voters.

    Farage's party can also take white working class voters from Labour the Badenoch Tories can't and indeed the latest polls show Reform are now gaining some working class voters who voted Labour in July.

    Both likely need the other to form a government though
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,012

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    6m
    It was always going to be hard for Kemi Badenoch. But at the moment she simply can’t assert herself in the way necessary to dominate PMQs. It’s becoming a big problem for her.

    Why was it going to be hard for her? At the moment Hodges can't get anything right. It doesn't seem a problem though as he has a loyal fan base for some reason.
    Hodges is doubly wrong because MPs do listen to Kemi. It's what she says that is the problem.
    I am not sure her performance at PMQs is a problem. Precious few people bother with it.

    But in an election campaign it really will matter. Although if she is up against Sir Drear then it will be like Rishi v SKS all over again.
    Kemi's (and any leader's) PMQs problem is that the people who do care are backbench MPs with a vote on the next leader. That was IDS's downfall. He actually did rather well at the ballot box, better than Michael Howard!
    Yes, voters don't give a shit about PMQs, if they did Hague would have won the 2001 GE by a landslide.

    As you note though MPs do and that was why they replaced IDS with Howard even though he got no higher a Tory voteshare in 2005 than IDS was polling in 2003. Kemi does have the advantage over IDS though she won the Tory MPs vote in the final round as well as the members vote so will be less likely to be removed by her parliamentary colleagues.

    That doesn't mean she doesn't need to work on it and think on her feet better. Starmer won by miles today as her questions on Haigh and immigration were easily brushed off by the PM's quips on Sunak and Johnson's covid lockdown breach fines and Badenoch's previous support for more work visas
    ‘and Badenoch's previous support for more work visas‘

    Why did she support more work visa’s, with Conservative governments immigration as rampant already as it was and costing the party many votes?
    Err....because she was Business Secretary and that is what business was telling her they needed to be able to grow?

    Just a wild stab, you understand.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144

    It was interesting listening to Tim Montgomerie on Sky this morning about his defection to Reform which he said was a result of the immigration figures but he also said he doesn't agree with everything Farage says and unlike Reform he supports increasing foreign aid

    He went on to say that in time, some accommodation between the Conservatives and Reform is quite likely which seemed as if he was hoping to act as a bridge between the two

    It does appear from recent polling that the combined total of the two is gaining on the left and it would change politics if this happened, and not in a good way fror labour

    That depends on how long it takes.

    The shift of progressive voters from Liberal to Labour earlier in the last century gifted the Conservatives their longest unbroken period in office.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    PRO TRAVEL TIP

    The coffee in Colombia is excellent. No, really. It’s bloody good. If you ever make it out here - try the coffee. Remember who told you first - “Colombian coffee” - that’s a trade secret happily handed on

    Next up: pasta in Italy

    Are there any problems with safety wrt visiting Colombia? Boring question I know.
    Breaking: you can buy Colombian coffee without actually going to Colombia
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,012
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    "Once it had reformed council tax, Labour should dare to charge capital gains tax on everyone selling their primary residence. Treating bricks and mortar like ordinary purchases would stop the “property ladder” being a tax-free nest egg where savings are invested unproductively. Can you imagine the outrage?"

    Toynbee - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/03/george-osborne-wealth-tax-labour-inheritocracy-work-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves

    Yep. I can. One term would be guaranteed.

    Probably true, you touch houses at your peril. It's a good point though. For home ownership to be the main route to personal wealth creation and at the same be blocked off to most young people without a very good job or parental backing is a pretty suboptimal situation.
    Yep, it is a mess and that's for sure.

    Some Tory woman was on R4 just now trying to explain how asking the NHS for more productivity improvements than Labour is, meant that the Tories could actually increase NHS spending by more than Labour, despite handing it less money in total (since they need to pay for their opposition to Labour’s budget fundraising measures).

    Good luck with that one! They must really think we voters are idiots.
    Well, in fairness, collectively, we voted for these people as our representatives. So they may be on to something.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    Leon said:

    I’m doing my favourite thing. I’m in a car with a private driver taking me across a fabulously exotic country a famously remote city

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    PRO TRAVEL TIP

    The coffee in Colombia is excellent. No, really. It’s bloody good. If you ever make it out here - try the coffee. Remember who told you first - “Colombian coffee” - that’s a trade secret happily handed on

    Next up: pasta in Italy

    You know what else is excellent in Colombia?
    In my experience: fruit juice, mojitos, and notable cleavages
    Leon is a notable fan of Masterchef.
    I am

    And I’m also speaking truth to power. Colombian women are generally rather attractive - and they are conspicuously mammacious
    Um, silicone?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144
    edited December 4
    Leon said:

    I’m doing my favourite thing. I’m in a car with a private driver taking me across a fabulously exotic country to a famously remote town. In the warm sunshine. In December. On half a tramadol

    And learning absolutely nothing from the experience and returning absolutely none the wiser, as regular PB readers will be painfully aware by now is always your modus operandi.

    It’s difficult for us to accept that the world’s greatest twat doesn’t return from exposure to the rest of the planet somewhat tempered in his extreme twattishness, but the evidence to the contrary is posted up here daily for us all to see.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    https://x.com/vonderburchard/status/1864293927190155600

    A Russian warship in the Baltic Sea has fired with tracer ammunition on a German navy helicopter on patrol.

    Nato increased such patrol/reconnaissance flights in the Baltic Sea following a series of sabotage of undersea cables. Suspects are Russia & China.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,857
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    theakes said:

    Really surprised to hear Tim Montgomerie has joined Reform.
    The Tories really are in trouble if her has taken this step.

    Montie worked for Hague and IDS and backed Jenrick, he is a respected conservative thinker but doesn't have a great record backing winners
    But he’s a blogger, journalist and columnist - not someone seeking elected office - and he clearly sniffs where the money and opportunities are going to be in coming years. Your party is heading towards becoming a dead end.
    Not entirely, at the moment the Tories are still the choice for middle class right of centre voters, even if Reform are becoming the choice for working class right of centre voters.

    Farage's party can also take white working class voters from Labour the Badenoch Tories can't and indeed the latest polls show Reform are now gaining some working class voters who voted Labour in July.

    Both likely need the other to form a government though
    Would anyone care to try describing a migration, boats and asylum policy (with numbers) withouit contradictions and unicorns that would be reasonably OK with: Reform, centrist Tories, corporate UK/the city/CBI, rightish Tories, the Supreme Court and public opinion?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    theakes said:

    Really surprised to hear Tim Montgomerie has joined Reform.
    The Tories really are in trouble if her has taken this step.

    Montie worked for Hague and IDS and backed Jenrick, he is a respected conservative thinker but doesn't have a great record backing winners
    But he’s a blogger, journalist and columnist - not someone seeking elected office - and he clearly sniffs where the money and opportunities are going to be in coming years. Your party is heading towards becoming a dead end.
    Not entirely, at the moment the Tories are still the choice for middle class right of centre voters, even if Reform are becoming the choice for working class right of centre voters.

    Farage's party can also take white working class voters from Labour the Badenoch Tories can't and indeed the latest polls show Reform are now gaining some working class voters who voted Labour in July.

    Both likely need the other to form a government though
    How many middle class voters have you actually met, recently?
  • Shecorns88Shecorns88 Posts: 279
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    I’m doing my favourite thing. I’m in a car with a private driver taking me across a fabulously exotic country to a famously remote town. In the warm sunshine. In December. On half a tramadol

    And learning absolutely nothing from the experience and returning absolutely none the wiser, as regular PB readers will be painfully aware by now is always your modus operandi.

    It’s difficult for us to accept that the world’s greatest twat doesn’t return from exposure to the rest of the planet somewhat tempered in his extreme twattishness, but the evidence to the contrary is posted up here daily for us all to see.
    Be nicer to Bit Masters. They can't understand normal human emotions.
  • Shecorns88Shecorns88 Posts: 279
    Leon said:

    I’m doing my favourite thing. I’m in a car with a private driver taking me across a fabulously exotic country to a famously remote town. In the warm sunshine. In December. On half a tramadol

    Are you Chris Pincher
This discussion has been closed.