Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.
Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.
Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
If it wasn't for the fact it's institutionally designed to be a Franco-German club I'd say Poland could easily become the natural new leader of Europe.
They're the only one with balls and real hard power.
Well the club is in crisis. Germany now on the edge of an election and France with a lame duck government and a doolally president.
We should be immediately reconstituting the army to fully equip one full strength armoured warfighting division, deployed to Poland or the Baltic States, with another in reserve and a further in training.
It would require expanding the army back up to c. 105-100k men
Why we're not doing so baffles me. It's more important than NHS pay rises or the triple lock.
Sorry.
It is quite astonishing how you have your heart in the right place yet contrive to be wrong about almost everything.
Well, I know you'd prefer us to surrender to Putin but not all of us agree.
Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.
Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.
Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
If it wasn't for the fact it's institutionally designed to be a Franco-German club I'd say Poland could easily become the natural new leader of Europe.
They're the only one with balls and real hard power.
Well the club is in crisis. Germany now on the edge of an election and France with a lame duck government and a doolally president.
We should be immediately reconstituting the army to fully equip one full strength armoured warfighting division, deployed to Poland or the Baltic States, with another in reserve and a further in training.
It would require expanding the army back up to c. 105-100k men
Why we're not doing so baffles me. It's more important than NHS pay rises or the triple lock.
Sorry.
The Triple Lock should go and this govt should have the balls to do it now and get it out the way in time for 2029.
I know youre sensibly thinking of packing up work but have you looked at budgets for 2025 yet ?
I reckon for us NI will cost on average £900 per employee and the minimum wage will be about £1400 on cost per employee. In effect skilled workers will want to ensure they still have their wage differential so you will sort of have to give a rise to everyone.
Were looking at some job cuts, price rises and managing salary mix, We were going to look at some expansion programmes but we have pushed that back to mid 2025 for a review when we know how things are panning out. Whats it like with you ?
We have been looking at 2025 and it is not looking good. It is not grim, we won't be closing, but it is very much a case of tightening our belts and being cautious. Partly due to concerns about the global economy and partly due to concerns about the impact of the budget. On the plus side our order book us up about 5% year on year but our costs are increasing too so our overall margin is actually lower than last year.
We believe for our site the NI changes will cost around £175,000 a year straight off the bottom line and we do not have the ability to simply increase our prices to recover it and the shop floor have just rejected a pay offer as well of 4.5%. We pay above the minimum wage for permies but the min wage increase will have a big impact on our temps and our cleaning contract.
We now have discretionary spend banned. Travel is only allowed for new business opportunities. We had a marketing program lined up and good to go and it got cancelled at the last minute.
We had voluntary severance last year. This may come again. However the issue is where do you cut when already pared back to the bone.
It is easy for people to say "make less profit" but they don't realise profit is just not sent out to shareholders. Many businesses use profits to reinvest and grow the business or hold cash for when times are not as good.
We have just put in a new water treatment plant. That would not have gone ahead in the current circumstances.
Yes sounds like the script Im looking at. We are coming out of a tough 2024 and were in good shape heading in to 2025 but the budget hits will slow all this down and like you will we will focus on profit and cash rather than expansion.
About the only good thing might be we will also look at more automation and use investment to replace labour. But that will be a couple of years off after we have absorbed he hit
I would argue that you should always be looking at more automation but as you say that's never an immediate fix - it takes time for the automation to be identified, installed and finally implemented.
Theres also the issue that you need the cash to buy the kit. Small scale automation is affordable but if you want anything major like a machining centre you need cash in the bank even if you later put in on a lease.
If you arent certain of youre forward trading you will keep the cash to give yourself headroom until times improve. Tne current NI hits make this the preferred path until we know how trading has settled down. So if growth is Reeves priority she's a fail in the business I run. I suspect it's the same with other SMEs.
The swing in the Hispanic vote was probably the single largest determinant of the election (the Black vote barely changed in proportion).
And that is the demographic (complicated though it is) that will be most brutally impacted by an actual program of mass deportation.
And that's setting aside the changes to US norms it will require. And the likely economic damage.
So Hispanic voters will protest against deportations of drug cartel members ? I thought escaping crime was one of the reasons they came to the states. ?
Harris never articulated a view on the economy. Her answer “nothing” when asked what she would do differently to Biden summed up her approach.
The problem is that whilst objectively speaking Biden actually run quite a strong economy, Americans didn’t feel the changes in their lives.
Harris attempted to make it about Trump. But this I think backfired as everyone knew what they were getting with him and they felt the economy was better under him so they were prepared to put everything else aside. Harris thought women and abortion would swing it but none of these issues outpaced the economy and I struggle to see why they would. On abortion, my view is that women just voted for abortion at the state level and then voted Trump on the economy. I don’t think they had any difficulty doing that.
It really is the economy, stupid. The next Democratic candidate might get lucky as the economy is likely to have tanked anyway under Trump but they will need to offer more than just “not Trump”/“not Vance”.
The result was fairly close. Less than a 2% swing and Harris would have won the popular vote. That means there will be a long list of things that could have tipped the balance. I’d pick Aileen Cannon torpedoing the secret documents case!
Shouldawouldacoulda
The Democrats clearly lost, and nearly in some safeish states for them, and Trump won a majority of the popular vote
Very restrained of PBers to keep their views modestly hidden until it didn’t matter.
You’d think on a betting site after-timing would be the crime of crimes.
All rather amusing. Some of were saying that Harris was a crap candidate for literally years, the discussion was always how can the party stand Biden down but also not end up with Harris by default, perhaps by giving her a Supreme Court seat and Biden choosing a new Veep, if he insists on a woman then someone like Gretchen Whitmer who might appeal to Middle America rather than the coastal elites.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
There's not very funny being evicted or finding yourself in poverty even with a full-time job. That's the reality for millions of people, and bashing landlords and dodgy employers, even if just performative, will be very popular.
Look at how Harris struggled with those questions on the economy. If Labour can go into the next election with "immigration down, wages up, inflation down", plus all these reforms, they can fight the Conservatives/Reform for those non-degree educated votes.
The swing in the Hispanic vote was probably the single largest determinant of the election (the Black vote barely changed in proportion).
And that is the demographic (complicated though it is) that will be most brutally impacted by an actual program of mass deportation.
And that's setting aside the changes to US norms it will require. And the likely economic damage.
Yes some legal Latinos will get caught up in this , there’s bound to be some mistakes with documentation . The family angle will see especially teenagers who have known nothing else but the USA to be forced to leave if parents are undocumented, also some families have one legal and one undocumented parent .The policy is immeasurably cruel.
The deportation plan of Trumps according to one of his aides will include legal citizen children . This was in response to a question about separating families because of the furore at the border during Trumps first term . This is because undocumented worker parents' children are legal if born in the USA...
.
They are, as you say, US citizens - by constitutional mandate. Trump's GOP wants to change that.
Where it will get really messy is with the millions of immigrants who have been in the US for many decades, working and raising families. If the administration goes ahead with what Trump has promised/threatened, it will affect a very large proportion of the electorate, many if whom voted for him. And the process is likely to be very ugly indeed.
The next few week's cabinet appointment choices will give us clues of what he actually intends.
Retrospectively changing legal status will end up in the Supreme Court. It would set a very bad precedent .
The Supreme Court has shown it is happy to make bad precedent for a bad president.
The risk is that this SC will feel vindicated by the election result. All the upset about Dobbs has been endorsed by the American public (although the number of resolutions passed freeing up abortion in individual states was notable). The right wing majority are likely to be enhanced over the next 4 years. The majority in the Senate for the GOP means there is no pressure to choose moderates. It is genuinely frightening what they may do from here. Many long enshrined rights are going to disappear.
Trump gets away with things because some people don’t take him seriously . He also can be quite funny at times .
Not sure who can replicate this formula in the GOP after he leaves office .
I'm not sure Trump will be able to maintain it in office. Doing very little, as happened in his first term, won't satisfy the "coalition of misfits" he's so successfully assembled. That's probably also true of actually implementing some of his mutually contradictory promises.
I'm probably not going to enjoy it much, but I'm genuinely interested in watching what he actually does.
Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.
Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.
Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
If it wasn't for the fact it's institutionally designed to be a Franco-German club I'd say Poland could easily become the natural new leader of Europe.
They're the only one with balls and real hard power.
Well the club is in crisis. Germany now on the edge of an election and France with a lame duck government and a doolally president.
We should be immediately reconstituting the army to fully equip one full strength armoured warfighting division, deployed to Poland or the Baltic States, with another in reserve and a further in training.
It would require expanding the army back up to c. 105-100k men
Why we're not doing so baffles me. It's more important than NHS pay rises or the triple lock.
Sorry.
The Triple Lock should go and this govt should have the balls to do it now and get it out the way in time for 2029.
I know youre sensibly thinking of packing up work but have you looked at budgets for 2025 yet ?
I reckon for us NI will cost on average £900 per employee and the minimum wage will be about £1400 on cost per employee. In effect skilled workers will want to ensure they still have their wage differential so you will sort of have to give a rise to everyone.
Were looking at some job cuts, price rises and managing salary mix, We were going to look at some expansion programmes but we have pushed that back to mid 2025 for a review when we know how things are panning out. Whats it like with you ?
We have been looking at 2025 and it is not looking good. It is not grim, we won't be closing, but it is very much a case of tightening our belts and being cautious. Partly due to concerns about the global economy and partly due to concerns about the impact of the budget. On the plus side our order book us up about 5% year on year but our costs are increasing too so our overall margin is actually lower than last year.
We believe for our site the NI changes will cost around £175,000 a year straight off the bottom line and we do not have the ability to simply increase our prices to recover it and the shop floor have just rejected a pay offer as well of 4.5%. We pay above the minimum wage for permies but the min wage increase will have a big impact on our temps and our cleaning contract.
We now have discretionary spend banned. Travel is only allowed for new business opportunities. We had a marketing program lined up and good to go and it got cancelled at the last minute.
We had voluntary severance last year. This may come again. However the issue is where do you cut when already pared back to the bone.
It is easy for people to say "make less profit" but they don't realise profit is just not sent out to shareholders. Many businesses use profits to reinvest and grow the business or hold cash for when times are not as good.
We have just put in a new water treatment plant. That would not have gone ahead in the current circumstances.
And that's how Labour's tax rises will crowd out private investment and suppress growth in the economy; something they clearly don't understand.
But I suppose it's all right because the Unions are happy.
GOP congressman Sessions on R4, clear as mud on tariffs, Ukraine and Middle East. Though he wants Britain as well as the USA to be great again, so that’s ok then.
Looking at the final results in WI, MI and PA. A 1-1.5% swing to Harris in those states would have won her the election. The idea that the Democrats need to abandon any progressive policies and become a watered down version of the GOP in response to this result is just absurd.
The swing in the Hispanic vote was probably the single largest determinant of the election (the Black vote barely changed in proportion).
And that is the demographic (complicated though it is) that will be most brutally impacted by an actual program of mass deportation.
And that's setting aside the changes to US norms it will require. And the likely economic damage.
So Hispanic voters will protest against deportations of drug cartel members ? I thought escaping crime was one of the reasons they came to the states. ?
Legal Hispanic immigrants really hate the illegal immigrants and the cartel members being in the US, because they’re undercutting wages and increasing crime respectively.
The swing in the Hispanic vote was probably the single largest determinant of the election (the Black vote barely changed in proportion).
And that is the demographic (complicated though it is) that will be most brutally impacted by an actual program of mass deportation.
And that's setting aside the changes to US norms it will require. And the likely economic damage.
So Hispanic voters will protest against deportations of drug cartel members ? I thought escaping crime was one of the reasons they came to the states. ?
Legal Hispanic immigrants really hate the illegal immigrants and the cartel members being in the US, because they’re undercutting wages and increasing crime respectively.
But a comedian told a bad joke at a rally…
Do you have data to back that up, or is it just what you can see of American views from your home in the sandpit?
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
There's not very funny being evicted or finding yourself in poverty even with a full-time job. That's the reality for millions of people, and bashing landlords and dodgy employers, even if just performative, will be very popular.
Look at how Harris struggled with those questions on the economy. If Labour can go into the next election with "immigration down, wages up, inflation down", plus all these reforms, they can fight the Conservatives/Reform for those non-degree educated votes.
Noone who's working who can't afford their mortgage or their household bills, because they haven't had a payrise for yonks and their costs go up, will care a jot about Labour wanking themselves silly over poverty porn.
Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.
Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.
Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
If it wasn't for the fact it's institutionally designed to be a Franco-German club I'd say Poland could easily become the natural new leader of Europe.
They're the only one with balls and real hard power.
Well the club is in crisis. Germany now on the edge of an election and France with a lame duck government and a doolally president.
We should be immediately reconstituting the army to fully equip one full strength armoured warfighting division, deployed to Poland or the Baltic States, with another in reserve and a further in training.
It would require expanding the army back up to c. 105-100k men
Why we're not doing so baffles me. It's more important than NHS pay rises or the triple lock.
Sorry.
It is quite astonishing how you have your heart in the right place yet contrive to be wrong about almost everything.
Why? I am not saying @Casino_Royale is right because I don't know enough about it, but why is he wrong? I want to be informed. I can understand why he says what he says so why is he wrong?
Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.
Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.
Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
If it wasn't for the fact it's institutionally designed to be a Franco-German club I'd say Poland could easily become the natural new leader of Europe.
They're the only one with balls and real hard power.
Well the club is in crisis. Germany now on the edge of an election and France with a lame duck government and a doolally president.
We should be immediately reconstituting the army to fully equip one full strength armoured warfighting division, deployed to Poland or the Baltic States, with another in reserve and a further in training.
It would require expanding the army back up to c. 105-100k men
Why we're not doing so baffles me. It's more important than NHS pay rises or the triple lock.
Sorry.
It is quite astonishing how you have your heart in the right place yet contrive to be wrong about almost everything.
Why? I am not saying @Casino_Royale is right because I don't know enough about it, but why is he wrong? I want to be informed. I can understand why he says what he says so why is he wrong?
He supports Putin, and thinks we should ally with him.
The swing in the Hispanic vote was probably the single largest determinant of the election (the Black vote barely changed in proportion).
And that is the demographic (complicated though it is) that will be most brutally impacted by an actual program of mass deportation.
And that's setting aside the changes to US norms it will require. And the likely economic damage.
I think it’s a big error to think of Hispanics as a single demographic.
They’re a myriad of ethnic and national groups, white, black, Amerindian and mixed. And their status ranges from destitute to billionaires. Those who voted for Trump probably have little reason to fear deportation and don’t care about people whose only connection is that they share some Spanish ancestry.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
There's not very funny being evicted or finding yourself in poverty even with a full-time job. That's the reality for millions of people, and bashing landlords and dodgy employers, even if just performative, will be very popular.
Look at how Harris struggled with those questions on the economy. If Labour can go into the next election with "immigration down, wages up, inflation down", plus all these reforms, they can fight the Conservatives/Reform for those non-degree educated votes.
Noone who's working who can't afford their mortgage or their household bills, because they haven't had a payrise for yonks and their costs go up, will care a jot about Labour wanking themselves silly over poverty porn.
Right, and that's why a cut to immigration and an increase in the minimum wage is a good thing for Labour.
The swing in the Hispanic vote was probably the single largest determinant of the election (the Black vote barely changed in proportion).
And that is the demographic (complicated though it is) that will be most brutally impacted by an actual program of mass deportation.
And that's setting aside the changes to US norms it will require. And the likely economic damage.
So Hispanic voters will protest against deportations of drug cartel members ? I thought escaping crime was one of the reasons they came to the states. ?
Legal Hispanic immigrants really hate the illegal immigrants and the cartel members being in the US, because they’re undercutting wages and increasing crime respectively.
But a comedian told a bad joke at a rally…
Do you have data to back that up, or is it just what you can see of American views from your home in the sandpit?
Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.
Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.
Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
If it wasn't for the fact it's institutionally designed to be a Franco-German club I'd say Poland could easily become the natural new leader of Europe.
They're the only one with balls and real hard power.
Well the club is in crisis. Germany now on the edge of an election and France with a lame duck government and a doolally president.
We should be immediately reconstituting the army to fully equip one full strength armoured warfighting division, deployed to Poland or the Baltic States, with another in reserve and a further in training.
It would require expanding the army back up to c. 105-100k men
Why we're not doing so baffles me. It's more important than NHS pay rises or the triple lock.
Sorry.
The Triple Lock should go and this govt should have the balls to do it now and get it out the way in time for 2029.
I know youre sensibly thinking of packing up work but have you looked at budgets for 2025 yet ?
I reckon for us NI will cost on average £900 per employee and the minimum wage will be about £1400 on cost per employee. In effect skilled workers will want to ensure they still have their wage differential so you will sort of have to give a rise to everyone.
Were looking at some job cuts, price rises and managing salary mix, We were going to look at some expansion programmes but we have pushed that back to mid 2025 for a review when we know how things are panning out. Whats it like with you ?
We have been looking at 2025 and it is not looking good. It is not grim, we won't be closing, but it is very much a case of tightening our belts and being cautious. Partly due to concerns about the global economy and partly due to concerns about the impact of the budget. On the plus side our order book us up about 5% year on year but our costs are increasing too so our overall margin is actually lower than last year.
We believe for our site the NI changes will cost around £175,000 a year straight off the bottom line and we do not have the ability to simply increase our prices to recover it and the shop floor have just rejected a pay offer as well of 4.5%. We pay above the minimum wage for permies but the min wage increase will have a big impact on our temps and our cleaning contract.
We now have discretionary spend banned. Travel is only allowed for new business opportunities. We had a marketing program lined up and good to go and it got cancelled at the last minute.
We had voluntary severance last year. This may come again. However the issue is where do you cut when already pared back to the bone.
It is easy for people to say "make less profit" but they don't realise profit is just not sent out to shareholders. Many businesses use profits to reinvest and grow the business or hold cash for when times are not as good.
We have just put in a new water treatment plant. That would not have gone ahead in the current circumstances.
And that's how Labour's tax rises will crowd out private investment and suppress growth in the economy; something they clearly don't understand.
But I suppose it's all right because the Unions are happy.
Indeed and it is a knock on effect. The Water Treatment Plant I mentioned to Alan that we purchased. That was a seven figure spend on the capital and installation with a UK SME, but then there was the other work we had to do as part of the installation as well which was a further six figure sum with other local SME's in the contstruction, installation and fabrications trade.
Any slowdown in capital spend caused by whatever has a direct impact on these sort of businesses.
I must stress again when people say "businesses should be happy making less profits" as we need the tax revenue these profits are not just doled out to wealthy shareholders to buy a holiday home with. They are often reinvested in the business to drive growth or used to fund acquisitions to drive growth.
I genuinely believed Rachel Reeves got this and got business.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
There's not very funny being evicted or finding yourself in poverty even with a full-time job. That's the reality for millions of people, and bashing landlords and dodgy employers, even if just performative, will be very popular.
Look at how Harris struggled with those questions on the economy. If Labour can go into the next election with "immigration down, wages up, inflation down", plus all these reforms, they can fight the Conservatives/Reform for those non-degree educated votes.
Noone who's working who can't afford their mortgage or their household bills, because they haven't had a payrise for yonks and their costs go up, will care a jot about Labour wanking themselves silly over poverty porn.
Right, and that's why a cut to immigration and an increase in the minimum wage is a good thing for Labour.
Depends which side of the McDonald's counter you are. The people working there benefit, but the people eating there lose out because their costs go up.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
There's not very funny being evicted or finding yourself in poverty even with a full-time job. That's the reality for millions of people, and bashing landlords and dodgy employers, even if just performative, will be very popular.
Look at how Harris struggled with those questions on the economy. If Labour can go into the next election with "immigration down, wages up, inflation down", plus all these reforms, they can fight the Conservatives/Reform for those non-degree educated votes.
So called no fault evictions are not evictions in any sense. They are mostly a fixed tenancy expiring the landlord does not wish to renew. Nothing wrong with that.
It looks like many private landlords are fleeing the market ahead of these laws coming in.
The renters lobbying groups need to be careful what they wish for.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
There's not very funny being evicted or finding yourself in poverty even with a full-time job. That's the reality for millions of people, and bashing landlords and dodgy employers, even if just performative, will be very popular.
Look at how Harris struggled with those questions on the economy. If Labour can go into the next election with "immigration down, wages up, inflation down", plus all these reforms, they can fight the Conservatives/Reform for those non-degree educated votes.
For private sector workers, I expect that the next four years will see little, if any, wage growth.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
There's not very funny being evicted or finding yourself in poverty even with a full-time job. That's the reality for millions of people, and bashing landlords and dodgy employers, even if just performative, will be very popular.
Look at how Harris struggled with those questions on the economy. If Labour can go into the next election with "immigration down, wages up, inflation down", plus all these reforms, they can fight the Conservatives/Reform for those non-degree educated votes.
So called no fault evictions are not evictions in any sense. They are mostly a fixed tenancy expiring the landlord does not wish to renew. Nothing wrong with that.
It looks like many private landlords are fleeing the market ahead of these laws coming in.
The renters lobbying groups need to be careful what they wish for.
Opening up more flats for owner - occupiers. Nice!
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
There's not very funny being evicted or finding yourself in poverty even with a full-time job. That's the reality for millions of people, and bashing landlords and dodgy employers, even if just performative, will be very popular.
Look at how Harris struggled with those questions on the economy. If Labour can go into the next election with "immigration down, wages up, inflation down", plus all these reforms, they can fight the Conservatives/Reform for those non-degree educated votes.
For private sector workers, I expect that the next four years will see little, if any, wage growth.
In my field an awful lot of people are on less than what they were 6 years ago...
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
My 'at the bottom end of the income distribution' friends spent most of our conversation on Tuesday evening bemoaning all the local hotels which had been given over to asylum seekers. In a thoughtful and nuanced and sympathetic way. But also in a way expeessingsome drustration that there were just so many and thag tbis can't be a good use of public omney.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
There's not very funny being evicted or finding yourself in poverty even with a full-time job. That's the reality for millions of people, and bashing landlords and dodgy employers, even if just performative, will be very popular.
Look at how Harris struggled with those questions on the economy. If Labour can go into the next election with "immigration down, wages up, inflation down", plus all these reforms, they can fight the Conservatives/Reform for those non-degree educated votes.
For private sector workers, I expect that the next four years will see little, if any, wage growth.
That’s oversimplified bs. There will be plenty of private sector workers who will do very well.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
There's not very funny being evicted or finding yourself in poverty even with a full-time job. That's the reality for millions of people, and bashing landlords and dodgy employers, even if just performative, will be very popular.
Look at how Harris struggled with those questions on the economy. If Labour can go into the next election with "immigration down, wages up, inflation down", plus all these reforms, they can fight the Conservatives/Reform for those non-degree educated votes.
Noone who's working who can't afford their mortgage or their household bills, because they haven't had a payrise for yonks and their costs go up, will care a jot about Labour wanking themselves silly over poverty porn.
Right, and that's why a cut to immigration and an increase in the minimum wage is a good thing for Labour.
Labour aren't cutting immigration - did you see the vast boat numbers in October? - and to the extent its gone down that's just a hangover from Rishi's policies.
And, not everyone is on minimum wage. Labour tends to focus on the very poorest (the socioeconomic wanking) and also the Metropolitan left-liberal elite (the sociocultural wanking).
Everyone else in the middle they don't give a shit about, which is why those earning between £30k and £80k really do pay for Labour governments.
Irony being that governments might have managed the shocks too well. We feel the grumbling irritation, but don't see how bad it could have got.
Nobody gets thanked for preventing disasters, only for solving them afterwards.
So, when PB Tories urge US Democrats to "ditch the Woke nonsense", it is the Western governing party that did worst of all seeking to advise the Western governing party that did one of the best.
(A simplification of all the variables involved, I grant, but worth noting)
The swing in the Hispanic vote was probably the single largest determinant of the election (the Black vote barely changed in proportion).
And that is the demographic (complicated though it is) that will be most brutally impacted by an actual program of mass deportation.
And that's setting aside the changes to US norms it will require. And the likely economic damage.
So Hispanic voters will protest against deportations of drug cartel members ? I thought escaping crime was one of the reasons they came to the states. ?
Legal Hispanic immigrants really hate the illegal immigrants and the cartel members being in the US, because they’re undercutting wages and increasing crime respectively.
But a comedian told a bad joke at a rally…
Do you have data to back that up, or is it just what you can see of American views from your home in the sandpit?
The data to back it up is the voting swing to trump in the Hispanic vote. The explanation of why was nicely laid out by Rubio yesterday:
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
There's not very funny being evicted or finding yourself in poverty even with a full-time job. That's the reality for millions of people, and bashing landlords and dodgy employers, even if just performative, will be very popular.
Look at how Harris struggled with those questions on the economy. If Labour can go into the next election with "immigration down, wages up, inflation down", plus all these reforms, they can fight the Conservatives/Reform for those non-degree educated votes.
So called no fault evictions are not evictions in any sense. They are mostly a fixed tenancy expiring the landlord does not wish to renew. Nothing wrong with that.
It looks like many private landlords are fleeing the market ahead of these laws coming in.
The renters lobbying groups need to be careful what they wish for.
Opening up more flats for owner - occupiers. Nice!
Doesn't help the renter who cannot afford to buy anyway or does not want to buy at that stage if rental property availability is reduced.
People wanting to get on the property ladder or buy a second property would be helped.
We will end up with renters whining they cannot find properties to rent as supply is going to dry up.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
There's not very funny being evicted or finding yourself in poverty even with a full-time job. That's the reality for millions of people, and bashing landlords and dodgy employers, even if just performative, will be very popular.
Look at how Harris struggled with those questions on the economy. If Labour can go into the next election with "immigration down, wages up, inflation down", plus all these reforms, they can fight the Conservatives/Reform for those non-degree educated votes.
Noone who's working who can't afford their mortgage or their household bills, because they haven't had a payrise for yonks and their costs go up, will care a jot about Labour wanking themselves silly over poverty porn.
Right, and that's why a cut to immigration and an increase in the minimum wage is a good thing for Labour.
Labour aren't cutting immigration - did you see the vast boat numbers in October? - and to the extent its gone down that's just a hangover from Rishi's policies.
And, not everyone is on minimum wage. Labour tends to focus on the very poorest (the socioeconomic wanking) and also the Metropolitan left-liberal elite (the sociocultural wanking).
Everyone else in the middle they don't give a shit about, which is why those earning between £30k and £80k really do pay for Labour governments.
Doesn't matter - they can just point to the immigration figures falling and that's enough. The Tories really shot themselves in the foot with that one. And the fall in overseas students will have a material affect on rents in the cities.
I follow your logic on higher earners, but what we actually found during the election was that people on higher salaries voted overwhelmingly for Labour.
That’s true. For some us there is some letting off of steam.
Spent the last few months, after a decent launch that showed potential , waiting for Harris to share her vision, the big thing. It never came. WTF. By the end of September the writing was on the wall. There was nothing there. Just orange man bad.
Next time the democrats won't be up against a candidate as divisive as Trump either. Something people should bear in mind when trying to cope by looking at how small a swing is needed in certain states.
Romney and McCain were much less divisive than Trump. It didn’t win them the White House. Ditto Dole and George HW Bush.
4 years is a long time away. I think it would be brave to make firm predictions about the next election.
I'm not making any prediction just saying those who think it is easy for the Dems as the swing needed is small need to be wary.
Romney and McCain were up against a charismatic politician who inspired and had a vision.
In three and a half years, it may look very easy for one party or the other, or it may not! Sure, the Dems should definitely be wary of presuming it will be easy.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
There's not very funny being evicted or finding yourself in poverty even with a full-time job. That's the reality for millions of people, and bashing landlords and dodgy employers, even if just performative, will be very popular.
Look at how Harris struggled with those questions on the economy. If Labour can go into the next election with "immigration down, wages up, inflation down", plus all these reforms, they can fight the Conservatives/Reform for those non-degree educated votes.
For private sector workers, I expect that the next four years will see little, if any, wage growth.
In my field an awful lot of people are on less than what they were 6 years ago...
I don't know what your field is but in mine, manufacturing, in real terms that is most certainly the case. Our salaries have just not kept place with the high level of inflation we saw.
That’s true. For some us there is some letting off of steam.
Spent the last few months, after a decent launch that showed potential , waiting for Harris to share her vision, the big thing. It never came. WTF. By the end of September the writing was on the wall. There was nothing there. Just orange man bad.
Next time the democrats won't be up against a candidate as divisive as Trump either. Something people should bear in mind when trying to cope by looking at how small a swing is needed in certain states.
Romney and McCain were much less divisive than Trump. It didn’t win them the White House. Ditto Dole and George HW Bush.
4 years is a long time away. I think it would be brave to make firm predictions about the next election.
I'm not making any prediction just saying those who think it is easy for the Dems as the swing needed is small need to be wary.
Romney and McCain were up against a charismatic politician who inspired and had a vision.
In three and a half years, it may look very easy for one party or the other, or it may not! Sure, the Dems should definitely be wary of presuming it will be easy.
Harris never articulated a view on the economy. Her answer “nothing” when asked what she would do differently to Biden summed up her approach.
The problem is that whilst objectively speaking Biden actually run quite a strong economy, Americans didn’t feel the changes in their lives.
Harris attempted to make it about Trump. But this I think backfired as everyone knew what they were getting with him and they felt the economy was better under him so they were prepared to put everything else aside. Harris thought women and abortion would swing it but none of these issues outpaced the economy and I struggle to see why they would. On abortion, my view is that women just voted for abortion at the state level and then voted Trump on the economy. I don’t think they had any difficulty doing that.
It really is the economy, stupid. The next Democratic candidate might get lucky as the economy is likely to have tanked anyway under Trump but they will need to offer more than just “not Trump”/“not Vance”.
The result was fairly close. Less than a 2% swing and Harris would have won the popular vote. That means there will be a long list of things that could have tipped the balance. I’d pick Aileen Cannon torpedoing the secret documents case!
Shouldawouldacoulda
The Democrats clearly lost, and nearly in some safeish states for them, and Trump won a majority of the popular vote
They have some very serious thinking to do.
Is anyone suggest that they don't do some serious thinking? Of course they have some serious thinking to do.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
There's not very funny being evicted or finding yourself in poverty even with a full-time job. That's the reality for millions of people, and bashing landlords and dodgy employers, even if just performative, will be very popular.
Look at how Harris struggled with those questions on the economy. If Labour can go into the next election with "immigration down, wages up, inflation down", plus all these reforms, they can fight the Conservatives/Reform for those non-degree educated votes.
Noone who's working who can't afford their mortgage or their household bills, because they haven't had a payrise for yonks and their costs go up, will care a jot about Labour wanking themselves silly over poverty porn.
Right, and that's why a cut to immigration and an increase in the minimum wage is a good thing for Labour.
Labour aren't cutting immigration - did you see the vast boat numbers in October? - and to the extent its gone down that's just a hangover from Rishi's policies.
And, not everyone is on minimum wage. Labour tends to focus on the very poorest (the socioeconomic wanking) and also the Metropolitan left-liberal elite (the sociocultural wanking).
Everyone else in the middle they don't give a shit about, which is why those earning between £30k and £80k really do pay for Labour governments.
While small boat arrivals are the visible sign of immigration it's only 5-10% of actual immigration...
But it's the highly visible bit and should be being fixed by quicker processing more than anything else...
Harris never articulated a view on the economy. Her answer “nothing” when asked what she would do differently to Biden summed up her approach.
The problem is that whilst objectively speaking Biden actually run quite a strong economy, Americans didn’t feel the changes in their lives.
Harris attempted to make it about Trump. But this I think backfired as everyone knew what they were getting with him and they felt the economy was better under him so they were prepared to put everything else aside. Harris thought women and abortion would swing it but none of these issues outpaced the economy and I struggle to see why they would. On abortion, my view is that women just voted for abortion at the state level and then voted Trump on the economy. I don’t think they had any difficulty doing that.
It really is the economy, stupid. The next Democratic candidate might get lucky as the economy is likely to have tanked anyway under Trump but they will need to offer more than just “not Trump”/“not Vance”.
The result was fairly close. Less than a 2% swing and Harris would have won the popular vote. That means there will be a long list of things that could have tipped the balance. I’d pick Aileen Cannon torpedoing the secret documents case!
Shouldawouldacoulda
The Democrats clearly lost, and nearly in some safeish states for them, and Trump won a majority of the popular vote
They have some very serious thinking to do.
Is anyone suggest that they don't do some serious thinking? Of course they have some serious thinking to do.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
There's not very funny being evicted or finding yourself in poverty even with a full-time job. That's the reality for millions of people, and bashing landlords and dodgy employers, even if just performative, will be very popular.
Look at how Harris struggled with those questions on the economy. If Labour can go into the next election with "immigration down, wages up, inflation down", plus all these reforms, they can fight the Conservatives/Reform for those non-degree educated votes.
Noone who's working who can't afford their mortgage or their household bills, because they haven't had a payrise for yonks and their costs go up, will care a jot about Labour wanking themselves silly over poverty porn.
Right, and that's why a cut to immigration and an increase in the minimum wage is a good thing for Labour.
Labour aren't cutting immigration - did you see the vast boat numbers in October? - and to the extent its gone down that's just a hangover from Rishi's policies.
And, not everyone is on minimum wage. Labour tends to focus on the very poorest (the socioeconomic wanking) and also the Metropolitan left-liberal elite (the sociocultural wanking).
Everyone else in the middle they don't give a shit about, which is why those earning between £30k and £80k really do pay for Labour governments.
While small boat arrivals are the visible sign of immigration it's only 5-10% of actual immigration...
But it's the highly visible bit and should be being fixed by quicker processing more than anything else...
The presidency and senate might have settled quickly this time round but looking at where the remaining house races are, how close they are and how close the likely house is the house race will probably drag on till christmas lol.
Comments
You’d think on a betting site after-timing would be the crime of crimes.
Not sure who can replicate this formula in the GOP after he leaves office .
And that is the demographic (complicated though it is) that will be most brutally impacted by an actual program of mass deportation.
And that's setting aside the changes to US norms it will require. And the likely economic damage.
If you arent certain of youre forward trading you will keep the cash to give yourself headroom until times improve. Tne current NI hits make this the preferred path until we know how trading has settled down. So if growth is Reeves priority she's a fail in the business I run. I suspect it's the same with other SMEs.
The Democrats clearly lost, and nearly in some safeish states for them, and Trump won a majority of the popular vote
They have some very serious thinking to do.
Look at how Harris struggled with those questions on the economy. If Labour can go into the next election with "immigration down, wages up, inflation down", plus all these reforms, they can fight the Conservatives/Reform for those non-degree educated votes.
Doing very little, as happened in his first term, won't satisfy the "coalition of misfits" he's so successfully assembled. That's probably also true of actually implementing some of his mutually contradictory promises.
I'm probably not going to enjoy it much, but I'm genuinely interested in watching what he actually does.
But I suppose it's all right because the Unions are happy.
Though he wants Britain as well as the USA to be great again, so that’s ok then.
But a comedian told a bad joke at a rally…
They’re a myriad of ethnic and national groups, white, black, Amerindian and mixed. And their status ranges from destitute to
billionaires. Those who voted for Trump probably have little reason to fear deportation and don’t care about people whose only connection is that they share some Spanish ancestry.
https://www.ft.com/content/e8ac09ea-c300-4249-af7d-109003afb893
Irony being that governments might have managed the shocks too well. We feel the grumbling irritation, but don't see how bad it could have got.
Nobody gets thanked for preventing disasters, only for solving them afterwards.
https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/
Any slowdown in capital spend caused by whatever has a direct impact on these sort of businesses.
I must stress again when people say "businesses should be happy making less profits" as we need the tax revenue these profits are not just doled out to wealthy shareholders to buy a holiday home with. They are often reinvested in the business to drive growth or used to fund acquisitions to drive growth.
I genuinely believed Rachel Reeves got this and got business.
It looks like many private landlords are fleeing the market ahead of these laws coming in.
The renters lobbying groups need to be careful what they wish for.
In a thoughtful and nuanced and sympathetic way. But also in a way expeessingsome drustration that there were just so many and thag tbis can't be a good use of public omney.
And, not everyone is on minimum wage. Labour tends to focus on the very poorest (the socioeconomic wanking) and also the Metropolitan left-liberal elite (the sociocultural wanking).
Everyone else in the middle they don't give a shit about, which is why those earning between £30k and £80k really do pay for Labour governments.
(A simplification of all the variables involved, I grant, but worth noting)
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/06/politics/video/senator-marco-rubio-reacts-to-trump-victory-digvid
People wanting to get on the property ladder or buy a second property would be helped.
We will end up with renters whining they cannot find properties to rent as supply is going to dry up.
Nice
I follow your logic on higher earners, but what we actually found during the election was that people on higher salaries voted overwhelmingly for Labour.
NEW THREAD
But it's the highly visible bit and should be being fixed by quicker processing more than anything else...
However you then have articles like https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/06/almost-all-channel-migrants-arrive-in-uk-without-passports/ which says that migrants destroy their passports on the boat in the channel when all evidence has shown that the people smugglers demand the migrants passport as part of the purchase of their passage.
For that you need to end the viability of the channel as a route. Turnbacks, direct returns, or direct disqualification.
We all know Starmer will never do this.