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The future’s bad, the future’s orange – politicalbetting.com
The future’s bad, the future’s orange – politicalbetting.com
SNAP POLL / 57% of Britons are unhappy about Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential electionVery unhappy: 45%Fairly unhappy: 12%Neither happy nor unhappy: 19%Fairly happy: 9%Very happy: 11%https://t.co/DbiCfV9Jdj pic.twitter.com/dEQ0wAAE6S
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Kamala 224 EVs
I was nostalgic for Orange, Cellnet, One2One, and Vodafone.
He won fair and square. It’s what America wants.
Personally I think he is an utterly appalling person and totally unfit but America thinks differently. They’ve given him a mandate to govern as he wants.
For their sake, I hope he is successful.
A friend who voted for Harris - she is American - said Harris was a bad candidate several months ago. I think she was onto something.
That from Tyrone Mings is a national embarrassment.
In fact, all things considered we were probably on average about as right or wrong as the US political punditocracy.
https://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about
"There is no doubt about what has happened. This is Donald Trump's country."
Micheal Wolff
I think "the ship has sailed" is inappropriate for the stoic forbearance I am trying to convey.
And that is how, six months ago, Labour had a landslide on fewer votes than Corbyn, and the LibDems won dozens more seats than Reform on half a million less votes.
Kamala won, or "won", both the air war and ground war. Yet she lost.
So conventional wisdom is wrong.
I flat out thought that Harris would romp home, and I thought that well before Biden pulled out, but I wasn't fool enough not to see the signs that I was wrong, and finished up with a modest sort of a profit, and not quite the grand smile that a 25-1 winner might have yielded.
Edit: So I can bet reasonably well, but my prediction skills aren't great.
I think the election of Trump is an unmitigated disaster, and shame on Americans for voting for him.
It is in my eyes a disaster for Ukrainians, Americans and the world, in that order.
However for everyone's sakes, I hope I'm wrong. Wrong about what a disaster he'll be, not wrong that he's unfit to be anywhere near elected office, 6 January 2021 proved that beyond a shadow of a doubt.
Though I suspect a couple of years from now there will be a lot of Trump voters who are quite surprised when, having elected a leopard, are quite surprised when it turns round and eats their face..
https://x.com/footballontnt/status/1854238345808716268
1) Joe Biden announces c. 2022 that he won't be seeking a second term.
2) There is a proper Democratic primary contest.
3) The above is won by someone from neither coast who is reliably normal. (My view was always Whitmer or possibly Buttiegieg, but I've only just become aware of Shapiro and frankly it should definitely have been him.)
4) The above candidate manages to present as suitably 'change' from Biden.
5) Trump doesn't successfully adapt to the new opponent.
6) Nothing else goes wrong.
But that’s perhaps because it’s about vibes, and by that I mean respect. It’s probably the biggest challenge to all politicians but particularly those of the non-populist centre: how do you show you respect your voters without wholesale adopting their mutually incompatible policy wish lists? It takes the art of a great communicator to do so.
Special counsel Jack Smith expected to wind down Trump prosecutions: Sources
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/special-counsel-jack-smith-expected-wind-trump-prosecutions/story?id=115571646
America is screwed.
I've just thought of an upside to Trump's victory: we will not have to spend four years worrying about our awkwardness in possessivising Harris and Walz.
If you are going to pick a black woman to be your candidate do not do it at the last minute after she has spent over three years being a semi-invisible part of an increasingly unpopular administration headed by someone who is clearly too old for the job.
Being black and being a woman is an immediately difficult place to start from in a US presidential campaign, so make sure that if this is your candidate she has been through the fire of a full-on primary process that has seen her lay-out a fully-rounded prospectus.
I get why they went for Harris. They didn't really have any other option. But it has been clear for at least two years Trump was a serious threat and they all ignored it until it was far too late.
Certainly she was more than qualified to be President .
The one thing that deeply worries me is this surge of young men becoming Tate followers , viewing the world as downtrodden men who apparently have to take back control from women . There was this undercurrent in the Trump campaign .
Previously this group didn’t bother voting , now they do ! It’s political testosteronization .
I think what’s become clear whether we want to accept it or not is governments have to do something about immigration and particularly illegal migration .
We’re beginning to see an almost reverse aspect to society , from tribes protecting resources , to more open immigrant friendly societies and we’ve now gone into reverse back to the tribes .
Unless we combat this bad actors will feed off this and we will pay a heavy price , because the othering won’t stop there .
It's democracy and free will. They get to choose and I don't get a say in that.
But I do get an opinion and get a say in that.
I can have an opinion on the unsuitability of Trump, or Putin, or any other terrible leader across the globe.
Whether their voters give a monkeys or not is immaterial to that.
@AyoCaesar
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9h
In the last 4 years, American food prices have gone up by 22%. Like I'm sorry, but running a campaign on the threat to democracy when people are unable to afford staple groceries was completely bonkers.
https://x.com/AyoCaesar/status/1854097354065940488
https://x.com/jacquiheinrich/status/1854231834395074860
Vice President Harris called President-elect Trump to congratulate him on winning the 2024 presidential election, a campaign aide tells FOX.
"She discussed the importance of a peaceful transfer of power and being a president for all Americans."
The Vice President will deliver remarks at Howard University later today.
Harris was seen as continuity Biden. And she never really did much to change this view. People said they can’t afford to eat and she had no answers.
It’s very similar to what Sunak tried here by going on other issues.
So no, I don’t think it’s the w word that lost this election. It’s Joe Biden and Harris.
I am convinced by the idea of their choosing a governor instead.
The Democrats should have just run old clips of him saying things like "inject bleach to cure Covid" to remind people how shit he was.
Whether we like a result or not everyone who believes in democracy should always accept it and concede when they lose.
Well done Kamala for sticking with that principle, and not going down the path of the previous losing candidate.
Deliberate handball though - should have been been a second yellow.
Didn't Gabriel do something similar?
30 years ago with the top-down media world of the time, when crazy ideas like facts and evidence mattered, the Trump candidacy would never have taken off. He would have been eviscerated by the press at the beginning, and most people would have accepted what they read, heard, or saw, that Trump is patently unfit for office.
Nowadays Trump can bypass such scrutiny and lie his way to office, and not once but twice now.
Somewhat ironically the only countries that might be safe from such demagoguery are those that are already one-party states or have strict control of the press and social media. Which of course is not really a solution for those of us who like liberal democracy.
I don’t know what a compelling Democratic platform looks like but it starts with I think going far more hard on immigration, cost of living.
1) Age and term limits will prevent him running again
2) he has the senate (and I'm expecting the house) so will be able to make significant changes.
but there's the rub. he'll deal with stuff that others will not deal with in ways other won't like. It could get messy for Ukraine when he pulls US support and it could get messy both the US and global economy if he imposes all the Tariffs he's suggested.
his and the GOP approval has only one way to go in my opinion.
There is no "they" who could have made this possible.
Most PBers perhaps disagree with the average American, but that’s a different matter.
I can see the appeal of the platform. Don't agree with it, think it will be a disaster if tried, think it's a reaction against ghosts, but can see the appeal. In the same way that desperate strugglers have always flocked to the strongman promising easy solutions... just with a fraction of the actual justification. Don't like it, but can acknowledge it.
But.
The vessel chosen to embody this is one Donald J. Trump. And he ought to be excluded from the game because of the events of four years ago. Simple as. There were plenty of other people offering something that (to me) seems like a crazy-nasty agenda, but without the democratic compromise. They all fell by the wayside during the primary process. And when push came to shove, the American right decided that they'd rather compromise on their committment to democracy than their commitment to right-wingness.
To be fair, the Conservatives didn't do that. Once Johnson's continued lying became intolerable, they acted. But the historical record of the moderate right around the world isn't good here. And the list of times and places where it has worked well seems awfully short.
But there are others who want to rebuild America into some strange pseudo-1920s nostalgia trip, where women have no rights, nobody is trans, the US is king of manufacturing and jobs for life are common. Those I believe will keep faith with Trump, and probably Vance if Trump croaks it before the next election.
I reckon he would have.