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The future’s bad, the future’s orange – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    "Mass. voters reject ending tipped minimum wage

    Question 5 would have required Massachusetts employers to pay tipped workers the full minimum wage"

    https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/mass-voters-reject-ending-tipped-minimum-wage/3542922/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    "Australia plans social media ban for under-16s"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gzd62g1r3o
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379
    Andy_JS said:
    Well thanks. Because one night of me manically pressing the refresh button wasn't bad enough? 😃😃😃😃😃
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934


    Axios
    @axios
    Trump will begin operations to deport millions of undocumented immigrants when he starts his term, campaign press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday morning.

    He'll launch the "largest mass deportation operation" of undocumented immigrants on Day 1.

    https://x.com/axios/status/1854167037586595937

    Of course, Biden's last act could be to pardon them all.... Give them documentation.

    Then who you gonna deport, Donald?

    Otherwise, America's vast mountain of shitty little jobs are going to have to start being done by the documented.

    You know - white folk....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379
    Andy_JS said:
    Judging from the percentages to date, it should come in at Gallego 1,846,351 (51.5%) Lake 1,734,224 (48.4%). Which is at near enough 52% vs 48%. The Devil's ratio >:)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    edited November 7
    The Nostradamus of American elections gets it wrong for only the second time since 1984, Allan Lichtman.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FDC0pMO4Gw

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sT5Aqj2dUKA
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934
    Andy_JS said:

    The Nostradamus of American elections gets it wrong for only the second time since 1984, Allan Lichtman.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FDC0pMO4Gw

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sT5Aqj2dUKA

    But unlike the first time, this election he got REALLY wrong.

    He needs an extra key - the one where hornery Americans want to lash out at the guys who got them over a crisis, even though by doing so it will tip them into an even bigger disaster.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173

    Musk has been talking up how effective he thinks Trump, Vance and him going on all these podcasts were, particularly the really long ones.

    This is the new Hillary should have visited Wisconsin.
    Not going on Rogan didn't lose (likely made little difference); running as an incumbent did.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Comparing the (not quite confirmed) numbers, it looks as though Harris got a similar total vote to candidates pre-Biden.

    Whatever his faults, Biden 2020 was a historically popular Democratic candidate, winning a huge vote total. Makes you wonder what might have been, had he run in 2016.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    It seems to be my job on the internet to inform Americans that California has only counted 58% of its votes so far, because a lot of them are asking why so many votes are "missing" compared to 2020.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    geoffw said:

    Foss said:

    John Nott - Secretary of State for Defence during the Falklands - has died. Before my time, but he had an interesting history.

    walking out of a Robin Day interview was a highlight

    John Nott walked out of the interview when Robin Day asked him about Tory defence cuts.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    Fishing said:

    Timing is everything in comedy...


    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    ·
    2h
    German govt looks to have collapsed. The whole project killed by the debt brake, which needs to be ditched asap before it drags Europe into the fate of a second Weimar.

    Wow. For the first time I agree with Paul Mason. The debt brake is insanity. Regierender Wahnsinn. Germany's population is ageing rapidly, and has low home ownership. That means it has a very high propensity to save, and its chronic under-consumption and oversaving (see its huge and disruptive trade surpluses year after year) are the results. So government needs to run deficits for the sake of global stability. Before the euro it didn't matter as much: they just up-valued the D-mark every year. Now they don't have that safety valve with most of the rest of Europe.

    Not that I think it will lead to a Fourth Reich, but the Germans do need to learn some basic macroeconomics at some point. As Paul Krugman said, Germany is on a completely different macro planet from everybody else. Just as our government needs to learn some elementary Micro.
    The Greeks had a point about this, as did the Eurosceptics. Even George Osborne's Plan A austerity might have worked were it not for Germany locking down Europe.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    Andy_JS said:

    It seems to be my job on the internet to inform Americans that California has only counted 58% of its votes so far, because a lot of them are asking why so many votes are "missing" compared to 2020.

    If Florida can have all of the votes counted and the result declared in comfortably under three hours, there’s no reason that the rest of the States can’t do the same.

    Thankfully the results of the high-profile Federal elections are certain, so we’re not going to have the weeks of chaos and uncertainty we saw in the aftermath of 2020 and 2016.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    Nigelb said:

    Musk has been talking up how effective he thinks Trump, Vance and him going on all these podcasts were, particularly the really long ones.

    This is the new Hillary should have visited Wisconsin.
    Not going on Rogan didn't lose (likely made little difference); running as an incumbent did.

    Boris ran not as an incumbent but against Cameron and May and won a landslide (not that it did him much good in the end). Someone should buy Kamala Unleashed for Christmas. (The Telegraph suggested Boris was ejected from Channel 4's election coverage for continually plugging his book rather than talk about America. Cynics wonder if he'd only signed up for a couple of hours anyway.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    edited November 7
    A gracious concession speech from Mrs Harris by the way, now the US Democratic Party has the same job to do as the UK Conservative Party, of reforming themselves under new leadership, understanding why they failed on this occasion, and how they might work towards getting elected again in future.

    If they all want a hint, it’s not that the electorate are a basket of deplorables or a pile of garbage, but that there’s a lot more votes to be found in the centre than on the extremes of political opinion, and with a positive vision for the future.

    The US Dems need to cut back on the extreme wokery, and the UK Tories need to challenge Labour and LD more than Farage and Reform.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    Sounds like Germany might be next up for an election, and somewhat earlier than scheduled.

    Olaf Scholz and finance minister Christian Lindner have fallen out over a growth plan, and the latter has been fired. Lindner wanted tax cuts and a delay to “net zero” targets to stimulate the economy.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/06/german-government-collapses-amid-row-over-net-zero-targets/
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    Sandpit said:

    A gracious concession speech from Mrs Harris by the way, now the US Democratic Party has the same job to do as the UK Conservative Party, of reforming themselves under new leadership, understanding why they failed on this occasion, and how they might work towards getting elected again in future.

    If they all want a hint, it’s not that the electorate are a basket of deplorables or a pile of garbage, but that there’s a lot more votes to be found in the centre than on the extremes of political opinion, and with a positive vision for the future.

    The US Dems need to cut back on the extreme wokery, and the UK Tories need to challenge Labour and LD more than Farage and Reform.

    Trouble is, pace Trump, American political parties do not really have a leader like ours do. Kamala is not Kemi.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    Sir Keir Starmer ‘impressed’ by US ambassador and extends her term
    Dame Karen Pierce successfully navigated Donald Trump’s final year in power in 2020

    https://www.thetimes.com/world/us-world/article/sir-keir-starmer-impressed-karen-pierce-us-election-2024-k7h6qh797 (£££)

    Boris sacked her predecessor at President Trump's behest.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,946
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them.
    https://x.com/BernieSanders/status/1854271157135941698
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    Sandpit said:

    A gracious concession speech from Mrs Harris by the way, now the US Democratic Party has the same job to do as the UK Conservative Party, of reforming themselves under new leadership, understanding why they failed on this occasion, and how they might work towards getting elected again in future.

    If they all want a hint, it’s not that the electorate are a basket of deplorables or a pile of garbage, but that there’s a lot more votes to be found in the centre than on the extremes of political opinion, and with a positive vision for the future.

    The US Dems need to cut back on the extreme wokery, and the UK Tories need to challenge Labour and LD more than Farage and Reform.

    The cult of the centre? Triangulation only works while those at the edges have nowhere else to go. Bernie Sanders, as just posted here, points out that Trump has mopped up the workers abandoned by post-Clinton Democrats. In Britain, we've seen a similar phenomenon deliver first Brexit then Boris and now, ironically, a Labour landslide thanks to Reform and the LibDems mopping up those who might have voted Conservative.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,827

    Omnium said:

    Well done TSE - an excellent header title :)

    It dawned on me last week that next year will be 30 years since my first mobile phone.

    I was nostalgic for Orange, Cellnet, One2One, and Vodafone.
    Nostalgic for vodaphone? Customer service is pants.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972

    Sandpit said:

    A gracious concession speech from Mrs Harris by the way, now the US Democratic Party has the same job to do as the UK Conservative Party, of reforming themselves under new leadership, understanding why they failed on this occasion, and how they might work towards getting elected again in future.

    If they all want a hint, it’s not that the electorate are a basket of deplorables or a pile of garbage, but that there’s a lot more votes to be found in the centre than on the extremes of political opinion, and with a positive vision for the future.

    The US Dems need to cut back on the extreme wokery, and the UK Tories need to challenge Labour and LD more than Farage and Reform.

    Trouble is, pace Trump, American political parties do not really have a leader like ours do. Kamala is not Kemi.
    Yes there isn’t a formal LotO role as we have in the UK. They need to choose carefully their Senate and House leaders, from a younger generation than the previous incumbents which shouldn’t be too difficult!
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 489


    Axios
    @axios
    Trump will begin operations to deport millions of undocumented immigrants when he starts his term, campaign press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday morning.

    He'll launch the "largest mass deportation operation" of undocumented immigrants on Day 1.

    https://x.com/axios/status/1854167037586595937

    Of course, Biden's last act could be to pardon them all.... Give them documentation.

    Then who you gonna deport, Donald?

    Otherwise, America's vast mountain of shitty little jobs are going to have to start being done by the documented.

    You know - white folk....
    That would be beautiful..
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,521

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.

    Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.

    Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 489


    Axios
    @axios
    Trump will begin operations to deport millions of undocumented immigrants when he starts his term, campaign press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday morning.

    He'll launch the "largest mass deportation operation" of undocumented immigrants on Day 1.

    https://x.com/axios/status/1854167037586595937

    I presume this will be like his Muslim ban that will face legal challenge after legal challenge.
    The law was changed so the deportation act is not haltede during legal challenge..... people will get sent out no matter what
  • Morning all! There are challenges for the Democrats - big challenges. But also for the Republicans. If “it’s the economy stupid” carried the election for Trump, then Trump needs to deliver.

    From what those of us with a brain know of the proposed Trump economy, the risk is that it gets worse not better for most people. Assuming that the current rules continue and there is an election in 2028 where Trump isn’t the candidate, the Republicans are going to have to show they have delivered something positive…
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,946
    Mr. F, I believe Schroeder's loss of the freedom of Hanover makes him the first person to suffer that (over his links to Russia/Putin) since a certain person with a notorious moustache.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,978
    Andrew Neil on the US Election, and the Democrats failure.

    https://x.com/timesradio/status/1854212395226313048?s=61
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,435

    Morning all! There are challenges for the Democrats - big challenges. But also for the Republicans. If “it’s the economy stupid” carried the election for Trump, then Trump needs to deliver.

    From what those of us with a brain know of the proposed Trump economy, the risk is that it gets worse not better for most people. Assuming that the current rules continue and there is an election in 2028 where Trump isn’t the candidate, the Republicans are going to have to show they have delivered something positive…

    Or they could just blame 'the others'.

    Failure is not our fault, it's theirs.

    If you generate enough hate, the public will follow you however stupid that hate is. This has been a sad recurring theme throughout history, and I can easily see the Reps going down that road. They're already on it, IMV.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,668

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Jonathan Pie has made a very good video about the US election result. (Never thought I'd say that about one of his videos).

    https://x.com/JonathanPieNews/status/1854194551625282017

    He seems to be making a lot less videos these days.
    Indeed because bashing the Tory government was his main occupation.
    See also "Led By Donkeys"
    Yes, but they aren't comedians, they are 3 activists, using what they see as comedic stunts to forward their agenda. Not sure anybody is surprised they aren't interested in bashing a left leaning government.
    Yep.
  • Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.

    Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.

    Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
    Since Kohl they've really not had a good run of leaders.
  • On the Tesla skepticism at the end of yesterday - are the skeptics up to speed with recent developments?

    In the US and Canada, Tesla cars now drive themselves long distances with zero input from the driver. You still need someone in the drivers seat but increasingly they are doing nothing as the car can drive itself on any kind of road and park itself.

    Every iteration of the FSD software makes improvements - and these are pushed out rapidly. This is from standard cars with standard equipment which cost $40k and make Tesla a profit….
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    This video illustrates perfectly why Trump won. It compares how two candidates answer the economic question.

    https://x.com/Sports_Doctor2/status/1854071951381176355?t=g-WxsiuJykf-G_wKUEYKKw&s=19
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,668
    Actually, that Jonathan Pie video is quite good.

    He hates Tories but he'd very capable of seeing the weaknesses of his own side, and is Woke sceptical.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,435

    On the Tesla skepticism at the end of yesterday - are the skeptics up to speed with recent developments?

    In the US and Canada, Tesla cars now drive themselves long distances with zero input from the driver. You still need someone in the drivers seat but increasingly they are doing nothing as the car can drive itself on any kind of road and park itself.

    Every iteration of the FSD software makes improvements - and these are pushed out rapidly. This is from standard cars with standard equipment which cost $40k and make Tesla a profit….

    Tesla's share price is where it was three years ago. Over tech stocks have very much outperformed it.

    Self-driving tech from other manufacturers seem as advanced, if not more advanced, than Tesla's.

    Get off they hype train.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,668
    Jonathan said:

    This video illustrates perfectly why Trump won. It compares how two candidates answer the economic question.

    https://x.com/Sports_Doctor2/status/1854071951381176355?t=g-WxsiuJykf-G_wKUEYKKw&s=19

    God, that's appalling.

    Such a poor candidate.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,668
    Kamala Harris answering a question on the education of America's children:

    https://youtu.be/lj3iNxZ8Dww?si=Ub16FGaU0lHMn7xN
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934


    Axios
    @axios
    Trump will begin operations to deport millions of undocumented immigrants when he starts his term, campaign press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday morning.

    He'll launch the "largest mass deportation operation" of undocumented immigrants on Day 1.

    https://x.com/axios/status/1854167037586595937

    Of course, Biden's last act could be to pardon them all.... Give them documentation.

    Then who you gonna deport, Donald?

    Otherwise, America's vast mountain of shitty little jobs are going to have to start being done by the documented.

    You know - white folk....
    That would be beautiful..
    Uhnfortunately, it would probably also provoke lynchings and civil war.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,807
    There's an interesting account of Kemi Badenoch's first Shadow Cabinet meeting in the Speccie:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/inside-kemi-badenochs-first-shadow-cabinet/

    What strikes me is that Badenoch asked advisors to leave the room, because she aims to keep the contents of the meetings private, yet:

    The most interesting intervention came at the end of the meeting from Jenrick. After a rather bitter leadership contest, he made a big point of calling for unity. ‘Your success is our success,’ he told Badenoch. The comments landed well with the new leader – but not everyone was convinced. ‘It was the most insincere thing I’ve ever seen,’ said one colleague afterwards.


    So in the very first Shadow Cabinet meeting, some wet scumbag is already on the blower to Katy Balls taking potshots at fellow members. This is an infestation, and sadly Kemi, if not part of it, has chosen to acquiesce with it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704

    Jonathan said:

    This video illustrates perfectly why Trump won. It compares how two candidates answer the economic question.

    https://x.com/Sports_Doctor2/status/1854071951381176355?t=g-WxsiuJykf-G_wKUEYKKw&s=19

    God, that's appalling.

    Such a poor candidate.
    It’s a hard watch. The goal was wide open, the crowd were willing her on, but she couldn’t put the ball in the back of the net. Whereas Trump utterly nailed it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,946
    Mr. 1983, if Badenoch's meeting is being leaked that does not necessarily mean she has chosen to acquiesce with it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,807

    Mr. 1983, if Badenoch's meeting is being leaked that does not necessarily mean she has chosen to acquiesce with it.

    She has, because she is responsible for the make up of the Shadow Cabinet. It is a possible though unpalatable thought that the leaks came from Kemi's people, but I choose not to believe that at this stage.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,668
    Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.

    Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.

    Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
    If it wasn't for the fact it's institutionally designed to be a Franco-German club I'd say Poland could easily become the natural new leader of Europe.

    They're the only one with balls and real hard power.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030

    Mr. 1983, if Badenoch's meeting is being leaked that does not necessarily mean she has chosen to acquiesce with it.

    She has, because she is responsible for the make up of the Shadow Cabinet. It is a possible though unpalatable thought that the leaks came from Kemi's people, but I choose not to believe that at this stage.
    I think you have an unrealistic expectation of politicians not gossiping to the press!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,442

    Mr. 1983, if Badenoch's meeting is being leaked that does not necessarily mean she has chosen to acquiesce with it.

    A leak of Jenrick professing loyalty?

    It doesn't have to be Robert J...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.

    Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.

    Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
    If it wasn't for the fact it's institutionally designed to be a Franco-German club I'd say Poland could easily become the natural new leader of Europe.

    They're the only one with balls and real hard power.
    Well the club is in crisis. Germany now on the edge of an election and France with a lame duck government and a doolally president.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    Elon Musk’s bet on Trump has paid off spectacularly
    The Tesla chief’s $130m investment has already repaid itself several times over – and now he has the president’s ear

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/06/elon-musks-bet-on-trump-has-paid-off-spectacularly/ (£££)

    Tesla's share price shot up on Trump's victory so Elon woke up $15 billion better off. Nice work if you can get it.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 620


    Axios
    @axios
    Trump will begin operations to deport millions of undocumented immigrants when he starts his term, campaign press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday morning.

    He'll launch the "largest mass deportation operation" of undocumented immigrants on Day 1.

    https://x.com/axios/status/1854167037586595937

    Of course, Biden's last act could be to pardon them all.... Give them documentation.

    Then who you gonna deport, Donald?

    Otherwise, America's vast mountain of shitty little jobs are going to have to start being done by the documented.

    You know - white folk....
    That would be beautiful..
    $10 tomato on ithe way, food inflation will be brutal. Strongly suspect that the plan is all blustery like the wall and they're planning to blame courts / democrats for thwarting mass deportations.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,668
    edited November 7

    Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.

    Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.

    Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
    If it wasn't for the fact it's institutionally designed to be a Franco-German club I'd say Poland could easily become the natural new leader of Europe.

    They're the only one with balls and real hard power.
    Well the club is in crisis. Germany now on the edge of an election and France with a lame duck government and a doolally president.
    We should be immediately reconstituting the army to fully equip one full strength armoured warfighting division, deployed to Poland or the Baltic States, with another in reserve and a further in training.

    It would require expanding the army back up to c. 105-100k men

    Why we're not doing so baffles me. It's more important than NHS pay rises or the triple lock.

    Sorry.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089
    edited November 7
    This election I believe was lost on the economy.

    Harris never articulated a view on the economy. Her answer “nothing” when asked what she would do differently to Biden summed up her approach.

    The problem is that whilst objectively speaking Biden actually run quite a strong economy, Americans didn’t feel the changes in their lives.

    Harris attempted to make it about Trump. But this I think backfired as everyone knew what they were getting with him and they felt the economy was better under him so they were prepared to put everything else aside. Harris thought women and abortion would swing it but none of these issues outpaced the economy and I struggle to see why they would. On abortion, my view is that women just voted for abortion at the state level and then voted Trump on the economy. I don’t think they had any difficulty doing that.

    It really is the economy, stupid. The next Democratic candidate might get lucky as the economy is likely to have tanked anyway under Trump but they will need to offer more than just “not Trump”/“not Vance”.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.

    Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.

    Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
    If it wasn't for the fact it's institutionally designed to be a Franco-German club I'd say Poland could easily become the natural new leader of Europe.

    They're the only one with balls and real hard power.
    Well the club is in crisis. Germany now on the edge of an election and France with a lame duck government and a doolally president.
    We should be immediately reconstituting the army to fully equip one full strength armoured warfighting division, deployed to Poland or the Baltic States, with another in reserve and a further in training.

    It would require expanding the army back up to c. 105-100k men

    Why we're not doing so baffles me. It's more important than NHS pay rises or the triple lock.

    Sorry.
    We cant recruit enough DEI advisors to support an expansion and then we have to have lots of lawyers on hand to make sure if we cause injuries we are not liable for a class action from the Russian army
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,978

    Jonathan said:

    This video illustrates perfectly why Trump won. It compares how two candidates answer the economic question.

    https://x.com/Sports_Doctor2/status/1854071951381176355?t=g-WxsiuJykf-G_wKUEYKKw&s=19

    God, that's appalling.

    Such a poor candidate.
    Utterly terrible candidate. The democrats just, effectively, said to her "it's your turn". Massive sense of entitlement too.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,807

    Mr. 1983, if Badenoch's meeting is being leaked that does not necessarily mean she has chosen to acquiesce with it.

    A leak of Jenrick professing loyalty?

    It doesn't have to be Robert J...
    Jenrick would not have said it was the most insincere thing ever. A wet around that table (there are plenty to choose from) said it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,978

    Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.

    Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.

    Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
    If it wasn't for the fact it's institutionally designed to be a Franco-German club I'd say Poland could easily become the natural new leader of Europe.

    They're the only one with balls and real hard power.
    Well the club is in crisis. Germany now on the edge of an election and France with a lame duck government and a doolally president.
    We should be immediately reconstituting the army to fully equip one full strength armoured warfighting division, deployed to Poland or the Baltic States, with another in reserve and a further in training.

    It would require expanding the army back up to c. 105-100k men

    Why we're not doing so baffles me. It's more important than NHS pay rises or the triple lock.

    Sorry.
    The Triple Lock should go and this govt should have the balls to do it now and get it out the way in time for 2029.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    So with over a week to reflect on the budget I can firmly say Reeves is totally crap.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    RobD said:

    Mr. 1983, if Badenoch's meeting is being leaked that does not necessarily mean she has chosen to acquiesce with it.

    She has, because she is responsible for the make up of the Shadow Cabinet. It is a possible though unpalatable thought that the leaks came from Kemi's people, but I choose not to believe that at this stage.
    I think you have an unrealistic expectation of politicians not gossiping to the press!
    One of Yes Minister's irregular verbs: I give confidential security briefings. You leak. He has been charged under section 2a of the Official Secrets Act.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    Taz said:

    Jonathan said:

    This video illustrates perfectly why Trump won. It compares how two candidates answer the economic question.

    https://x.com/Sports_Doctor2/status/1854071951381176355?t=g-WxsiuJykf-G_wKUEYKKw&s=19

    God, that's appalling.

    Such a poor candidate.
    Utterly terrible candidate. The democrats just, effectively, said to her "it's your turn". Massive sense of entitlement too.
    Orange man bad. Woman good.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,807

    Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.

    Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.

    Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
    If it wasn't for the fact it's institutionally designed to be a Franco-German club I'd say Poland could easily become the natural new leader of Europe.

    They're the only one with balls and real hard power.
    Well the club is in crisis. Germany now on the edge of an election and France with a lame duck government and a doolally president.
    We should be immediately reconstituting the army to fully equip one full strength armoured warfighting division, deployed to Poland or the Baltic States, with another in reserve and a further in training.

    It would require expanding the army back up to c. 105-100k men

    Why we're not doing so baffles me. It's more important than NHS pay rises or the triple lock.

    Sorry.
    It is quite astonishing how you have your heart in the right place yet contrive to be wrong about almost everything.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,420

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Martin Kettle in the Guardian.

    "American voters have done a terrible and unforgivable thing this week. We should not flinch from saying they have turned away from the shared ethos and rules that have shaped the world, generally for the better, since 1945. Americans have concluded that Trump is not “weird”, as it was briefly fashionable to claim, but mainstream. Voters went out on Tuesday and voted weird in huge numbers. Americans must live with the consequences of that."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/06/us-election-donald-trump-new-world-order

    I feel the left are repeating the same mistake as 2016. We had Bad Al and CNN guests banging on about how black people hate latinos and trans people and latinos hate women in charge etc and they are too stupid to realise that they are voting for a man against their interests.

    Don't blame the voters, try to understand the reasons the voted the way they did. That is how you then beat Trump.
    Yes, they don't seem to able to break out of this way of thinking. If they did they could seriously undermine the appeal of populism and populists.
    Populism isn't unique to US, we have seen Corbyn and Farage here and all manner of parties across Europe from both left and right.
    Indeed. Poland, Hungary, Italy, India, Israel, Turkey and even the Netherlands have all elected quasi-authoritarian right-wing populists.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,435
    Taz said:

    Andrew Neil on the US Election, and the Democrats failure.

    https://x.com/timesradio/status/1854212395226313048?s=61

    Everyone being very wise after the event... ;)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,213

    Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.

    Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.

    Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
    If it wasn't for the fact it's institutionally designed to be a Franco-German club I'd say Poland could easily become the natural new leader of Europe.

    They're the only one with balls and real hard power.
    Before the last election they were getting worryingly close to no longer being a full democracy, with partisan capture of the judiciary. Thankfully that didn’t happen, but I’m not sure the rest of the continent would want them as its natural leader just yet.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,978

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Jonathan Pie has made a very good video about the US election result. (Never thought I'd say that about one of his videos).

    https://x.com/JonathanPieNews/status/1854194551625282017

    He seems to be making a lot less videos these days.
    Indeed because bashing the Tory government was his main occupation.
    See also "Led By Donkeys"
    Yes, but they aren't comedians, they are 3 activists, using what they see as comedic stunts to forward their agenda. Not sure anybody is surprised they aren't interested in bashing a left leaning government.
    Yep.
    They seem more obsessed with stalking Liz Truss and obsessing about Nigel Farage, they have a billboard up in Clacton they regularly update. Clacton being a place these Craft Beer Wanker soy boys would struggle to place on a map prior to July. It is not a shock they all had links to Greenpeace.

    No doubt the Guardian thinks they are edgy and right on, as they did with Cold War Steve.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 620

    Nigelb said:

    Musk has been talking up how effective he thinks Trump, Vance and him going on all these podcasts were, particularly the really long ones.

    This is the new Hillary should have visited Wisconsin.
    Not going on Rogan didn't lose (likely made little difference); running as an incumbent did.

    Boris ran not as an incumbent but against Cameron and May and won a landslide (not that it did him much good in the end). Someone should buy Kamala Unleashed for Christmas. (The Telegraph suggested Boris was ejected from Channel 4's election coverage for continually plugging his book rather than talk about America. Cynics wonder if he'd only signed up for a couple of hours anyway.)
    They rolled all the guests on and off, KGM was clearly making a joke, almost every Boris response was "if you read my book", a pity as he did have a couple of insightful contributions. Mischievous to schedule him with Stormy Daniels.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited November 7
    Taz said:

    Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.

    Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.

    Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
    If it wasn't for the fact it's institutionally designed to be a Franco-German club I'd say Poland could easily become the natural new leader of Europe.

    They're the only one with balls and real hard power.
    Well the club is in crisis. Germany now on the edge of an election and France with a lame duck government and a doolally president.
    We should be immediately reconstituting the army to fully equip one full strength armoured warfighting division, deployed to Poland or the Baltic States, with another in reserve and a further in training.

    It would require expanding the army back up to c. 105-100k men

    Why we're not doing so baffles me. It's more important than NHS pay rises or the triple lock.

    Sorry.
    The Triple Lock should go and this govt should have the balls to do it now and get it out the way in time for 2029.
    I know youre sensibly thinking of packing up work but have you looked at budgets for 2025 yet ?

    I reckon for us NI will cost on average £900 per employee and the minimum wage will be about £1400 on cost per employee. In effect skilled workers will want to ensure they still have their wage differential so you will sort of have to give a rise to everyone.

    Were looking at some job cuts, price rises and managing salary mix, We were going to look at some expansion programmes but we have pushed that back to mid 2025 for a review when we know how things are panning out. Whats it like with you ?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399

    This election I believe was lost on the economy.

    Harris never articulated a view on the economy. Her answer “nothing” when asked what she would do differently to Biden summed up her approach.

    The problem is that whilst objectively speaking Biden actually run quite a strong economy, Americans didn’t feel the changes in their lives.

    Harris attempted to make it about Trump. But this I think backfired as everyone knew what they were getting with him and they felt the economy was better under him so they were prepared to put everything else aside. Harris thought women and abortion would swing it but none of these issues outpaced the economy and I struggle to see why they would. On abortion, my view is that women just voted for abortion at the state level and then voted Trump on the economy. I don’t think they had any difficulty doing that.

    It really is the economy, stupid. The next Democratic candidate might get lucky as the economy is likely to have tanked anyway under Trump but they will need to offer more than just “not Trump”/“not Vance”.

    Two problems with the economy are first, the question of baselines, where inflation is low now but prices are still way higher than a few years ago. Second, gains have mainly accrued to the better-off. If you own your own home, doubling rents don't affect you; if you've paid off your mortgage, rising interest rates don't increase your outgoings.

    Whether under Trump anything changes, who knows? Tax cuts for billionaires won't help, nor will losing their jobs because Musk has sacked them all.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704

    Taz said:

    Andrew Neil on the US Election, and the Democrats failure.

    https://x.com/timesradio/status/1854212395226313048?s=61

    Everyone being very wise after the event... ;)
    That’s true. For some us there is some letting off of steam.

    Spent the last few months, after a decent launch that showed potential , waiting for Harris to share her vision, the big thing. It never came. WTF. By the end of September the writing was on the wall. There was nothing there. Just orange man bad.
  • Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,978
    Edinburgh Rape Crisis centre to pay £69,000 to a woman unjustly dismissed for her gender critical views.

    The same rape crisis centre that put a "trans" woman in charge of it.

    Oops.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/woman-unfairly-dismissed-over-gender-critical-views-to-get-69-000-payout/ar-AA1tD8YB?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=76f1f90a856441759afcb8bc03c6f903&ei=11
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Trump's priority will surely now be to find a suitable successor to ensure he doesn't get thrown in jail the minute he's out of office.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.

    He wont. Not unless they work in the public sector and he has most of those votes already.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704

    Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.

    He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.

    Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,213

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Martin Kettle in the Guardian.

    "American voters have done a terrible and unforgivable thing this week. We should not flinch from saying they have turned away from the shared ethos and rules that have shaped the world, generally for the better, since 1945. Americans have concluded that Trump is not “weird”, as it was briefly fashionable to claim, but mainstream. Voters went out on Tuesday and voted weird in huge numbers. Americans must live with the consequences of that."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/06/us-election-donald-trump-new-world-order

    I feel the left are repeating the same mistake as 2016. We had Bad Al and CNN guests banging on about how black people hate latinos and trans people and latinos hate women in charge etc and they are too stupid to realise that they are voting for a man against their interests.

    Don't blame the voters, try to understand the reasons the voted the way they did. That is how you then beat Trump.
    Yes, they don't seem to able to break out of this way of thinking. If they did they could seriously undermine the appeal of populism and populists.
    Populism isn't unique to US, we have seen Corbyn and Farage here and all manner of parties across Europe from both left and right.
    Indeed. Poland, Hungary, Italy, India, Israel, Turkey and even the Netherlands have all elected quasi-authoritarian right-wing populists.
    India is in some ways the closest analogue for what America under Trump might be, policy wise.

    Economically aligned with the West but very much its own thing. Run by a demagogue but not fully within the ambit of the dictatorships. Suspicious of China, neutral towards Russia and supportive of Israel. Geopolitically inward looking and fond of protectionist armoury like tariffs. More focused on enterprise growth than public investment.

    Hopefully it won’t start shooting dissidents in Canada though.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited November 7
    The deportation plan of Trumps according to one of his aides will include legal citizen children . This was in response to a question about separating families because of the furore at the border during Trumps first term . This is because undocumented worker parents children are legal if born in the USA.

    This is where things will get very messy legally .

    How will Mexico react to this and of course migrants come from many countries in South America . The vast majority of undocumented workers are in farming, construction and hospitality .

    So who will take up their jobs ?

    The policy is one spewed out during the campaign which will crash into reality and after a few token deportations will limp along but Trump will say it’s all going marvelous and most of his base will believe it .

    A question remains as to how brave the media will be in this age of threats by Trump . First Amendment rights you’d think should give them protection but you never know with the current SCOTUS.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173

    Nigelb said:

    Musk has been talking up how effective he thinks Trump, Vance and him going on all these podcasts were, particularly the really long ones.

    This is the new Hillary should have visited Wisconsin.
    Not going on Rogan didn't lose (likely made little difference); running as an incumbent did.

    Boris ran not as an incumbent but against Cameron and May and won a landslide (not that it did him much good in the end). Someone should buy Kamala Unleashed for Christmas. (The Telegraph suggested Boris was ejected from Channel 4's election coverage for continually plugging his book rather than talk about America. Cynics wonder if he'd only signed up for a couple of hours anyway.)
    A greater degree of separation might have made a difference, at the margin.
    But there's only so much a VP - as opposed to a party rebel - can do. Particularly when saddled with the administration's most unpopular policy.

    But I think the reality is that, once Biden decided to run again, there weren't really any options which would have made enough difference to change the outcome.

    The irony is that Trump will inherit - and get much of the credit for - all the good work this administration did on the economy. And fixing Trump's previous mistakes.
    The decisions he makes in the next couple of months will decide whether he messes all that up again.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,807
    Jonathan said:

    Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.

    He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.

    Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
    :lol:
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,442

    Mr. 1983, if Badenoch's meeting is being leaked that does not necessarily mean she has chosen to acquiesce with it.

    A leak of Jenrick professing loyalty?

    It doesn't have to be Robert J...
    Jenrick would not have said it was the most insincere thing ever. A wet around that table (there are plenty to choose from) said it.
    My theory is that BJ leaked the first bit. The journalist did their job and asked a second source, who added the subsequent snark.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,420

    This election I believe was lost on the economy.

    Harris never articulated a view on the economy. Her answer “nothing” when asked what she would do differently to Biden summed up her approach.

    The problem is that whilst objectively speaking Biden actually run quite a strong economy, Americans didn’t feel the changes in their lives.

    Harris attempted to make it about Trump. But this I think backfired as everyone knew what they were getting with him and they felt the economy was better under him so they were prepared to put everything else aside. Harris thought women and abortion would swing it but none of these issues outpaced the economy and I struggle to see why they would. On abortion, my view is that women just voted for abortion at the state level and then voted Trump on the economy. I don’t think they had any difficulty doing that.

    It really is the economy, stupid. The next Democratic candidate might get lucky as the economy is likely to have tanked anyway under Trump but they will need to offer more than just “not Trump”/“not Vance”.

    The result was fairly close. Less than a 2% swing and Harris would have won the popular vote. That means there will be a long list of things that could have tipped the balance. I’d pick Aileen Cannon torpedoing the secret documents case!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    nico679 said:

    The deportation plan of Trumps according to one of his aides will include legal citizen children . This was in response to a question about separating families because of the furore at the border during Trumps first term .

    This is where things will get very messy legally .

    How will Mexico react to this and of course migrants come from many countries in South America . The vast majority of undocumented workers are in farming, construction and hospitality .

    So who will take up their jobs ?

    The policy is one spewed out during the campaign which will crash into reality and after a few token deportations will limp along but Trump will say it’s all going marvelous and most of his base will believe it .

    A question remains as to how brave the media will be in this age of threats by Trump . First Amendment rights you’d think should give them protection but you never know with the current SCOTUS.

    It’s the big question. Will his administration efficiently execute all that he said he will do (and more) or will he weave an image and doing enough to distract and tick boxes, whilst letting a few rich folk get richer.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,420
    RobD said:

    Trump's priority will surely now be to find a suitable successor to ensure he doesn't get thrown in jail the minute he's out of office.

    He doesn’t have to worry about being out of office for 4 years and 2 months. There’s a fair chance he’ll be dead or too infirm to stand trial by then!
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,978
    Jonathan said:

    Taz said:

    Andrew Neil on the US Election, and the Democrats failure.

    https://x.com/timesradio/status/1854212395226313048?s=61

    Everyone being very wise after the event... ;)
    That’s true. For some us there is some letting off of steam.

    Spent the last few months, after a decent launch that showed potential , waiting for Harris to share her vision, the big thing. It never came. WTF. By the end of September the writing was on the wall. There was nothing there. Just orange man bad.
    Next time the democrats won't be up against a candidate as divisive as Trump either. Something people should bear in mind when trying to cope by looking at how small a swing is needed in certain states.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,888
    edited November 7
    ...
    geoffw said:

    Harris: “While I concede the election, I do not concede the fight.”

    You are not being very magnanimous in victory William. Those should be her last defiant words as she faces Trump's firing squad.

    I thought she was a revelation during the campaign. It's just a pity she couldn't change the minds of 5% more voters in the rust belt. They chose instead to vote for a seditious felon.

    I knew PB was a right wing melting pot, but I didn't expect as many previously shy Trumpeters to fall out of the furniture to the extent they have.

    This place is getting far too extreme for a centrist dad.

    Trump is a convicted felon, an adjudicated rapist and stole state secrets, and you are all convinced Harris was the worst candidate. What's wrong with you all?
    It's perfectly possible to hate Trump as an individual and as a politician but still to say, as a matter of political analysis, he was the more capable candidate. That second point doesn't mean someone would vote for him had they the chance (or did, if they did); just that he ran the better campaign, his being convicted half way through notwithstanding. That doesn't mean you have to like his campaign or agree with it.
    Absurdly his personal campaign was shocking too. Kamala equipped herself very well

    I suspect the reality is the promise of cheap gasoline was more important than clarity of mind, a rape adjudication, felony convictions, sedition and the theft of state secrets.
    acquitted, I think, though I haven't studied her outfits closely so you may be right

    From the Collins dictionary

    equipped

    in British English

    adjective

    2. qualified
    she is well equipped for the job

    Edit It must be embarrassing to correct a post that didn't require correcting. #peteisasthinskinnedasdonaldtrump
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.

    Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.

    Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
    If it wasn't for the fact it's institutionally designed to be a Franco-German club I'd say Poland could easily become the natural new leader of Europe.

    They're the only one with balls and real hard power.
    Well the club is in crisis. Germany now on the edge of an election and France with a lame duck government and a doolally president.
    We should be immediately reconstituting the army to fully equip one full strength armoured warfighting division, deployed to Poland or the Baltic States, with another in reserve and a further in training.

    It would require expanding the army back up to c. 105-100k men

    Why we're not doing so baffles me. It's more important than NHS pay rises or the triple lock.

    Sorry.
    The Triple Lock should go and this govt should have the balls to do it now and get it out the way in time for 2029.
    I know youre sensibly thinking of packing up work but have you looked at budgets for 2025 yet ?

    I reckon for us NI will cost on average £900 per employee and the minimum wage will be about £1400 on cost per employee. In effect skilled workers will want to ensure they still have their wage differential so you will sort of have to give a rise to everyone.

    Were looking at some job cuts, price rises and managing salary mix, We were going to look at some expansion programmes but we have pushed that back to mid 2025 for a review when we know how things are panning out. Whats it like with you ?
    We have been looking at 2025 and it is not looking good. It is not grim, we won't be closing, but it is very much a case of tightening our belts and being cautious. Partly due to concerns about the global economy and partly due to concerns about the impact of the budget. On the plus side our order book us up about 5% year on year but our costs are increasing too so our overall margin is actually lower than last year.

    We believe for our site the NI changes will cost around £175,000 a year straight off the bottom line and we do not have the ability to simply increase our prices to recover it and the shop floor have just rejected a pay offer as well of 4.5%. We pay above the minimum wage for permies but the min wage increase will have a big impact on our temps and our cleaning contract.

    We now have discretionary spend banned. Travel is only allowed for new business opportunities. We had a marketing program lined up and good to go and it got cancelled at the last minute.

    We had voluntary severance last year. This may come again. However the issue is where do you cut when already pared back to the bone.

    It is easy for people to say "make less profit" but they don't realise profit is just not sent out to shareholders. Many businesses use profits to reinvest and grow the business or hold cash for when times are not as good.

    We have just put in a new water treatment plant. That would not have gone ahead in the current circumstances.
    Yes sounds like the script Im looking at. We are coming out of a tough 2024 and were in good shape heading in to 2025 but the budget hits will slow all this down and like you will we will focus on profit and cash rather than expansion.

    About the only good thing might be we will also look at more automation and use investment to replace labour. But that will be a couple of years off after we have absorbed he hit
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Jonathan said:

    nico679 said:

    The deportation plan of Trumps according to one of his aides will include legal citizen children . This was in response to a question about separating families because of the furore at the border during Trumps first term .

    This is where things will get very messy legally .

    How will Mexico react to this and of course migrants come from many countries in South America . The vast majority of undocumented workers are in farming, construction and hospitality .

    So who will take up their jobs ?

    The policy is one spewed out during the campaign which will crash into reality and after a few token deportations will limp along but Trump will say it’s all going marvelous and most of his base will believe it .

    A question remains as to how brave the media will be in this age of threats by Trump . First Amendment rights you’d think should give them protection but you never know with the current SCOTUS.

    It’s the big question. Will his administration efficiently execute all that he said he will do (and more) or will he weave an image and doing enough to distract and tick boxes, whilst letting a few rich folk get richer.
    His tax plans favour the rich and Musks as the overseer of cutting waste will likely see cuts to welfare and the overall safety net.

    The media though weren’t interested in any of this . Turkeys voting for Christmas has never been more true . The only way to reduce the allure of populism is for those that have fallen for it to suffer greatly . This might sound cruel but I hope Trump gives them what they want bigly!
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942
    Jonathan said:

    Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.

    He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.

    Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
    Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.

    This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,420
    Taz said:

    Jonathan said:

    Taz said:

    Andrew Neil on the US Election, and the Democrats failure.

    https://x.com/timesradio/status/1854212395226313048?s=61

    Everyone being very wise after the event... ;)
    That’s true. For some us there is some letting off of steam.

    Spent the last few months, after a decent launch that showed potential , waiting for Harris to share her vision, the big thing. It never came. WTF. By the end of September the writing was on the wall. There was nothing there. Just orange man bad.
    Next time the democrats won't be up against a candidate as divisive as Trump either. Something people should bear in mind when trying to cope by looking at how small a swing is needed in certain states.
    Romney and McCain were much less divisive than Trump. It didn’t win them the White House. Ditto Dole and George HW Bush.

    4 years is a long time away. I think it would be brave to make firm predictions about the next election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    nico679 said:

    The deportation plan of Trumps according to one of his aides will include legal citizen children . This was in response to a question about separating families because of the furore at the border during Trumps first term . This is because undocumented worker parents' children are legal if born in the USA...

    .

    They are, as you say, US citizens - by constitutional mandate.
    Trump's GOP wants to change that.

    Where it will get really messy is with the millions of immigrants who have been in the US for many decades, working and raising families.
    If the administration goes ahead with what Trump has promised/threatened, it will affect a very large proportion of the electorate, many if whom voted for him. And the process is likely to be very ugly indeed.

    The next few week's cabinet appointment choices will give us clues of what he actually intends.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,012
    nico679 said:

    The poor jobs report and Biden’s comments just before the election weren’t helpful . And in hindsight Harris should have made her campaign more about what she’ll do for the American people and much less about Trump. She also should have put more distance between herself and Biden . The thing is our criticisms are once again though adding to the she has to be flawless whilst Trump is lawless mantra .

    She ran a good campaign given the circumstances. And when you see how much investment has gone into some communities from the Biden administration this we lost the “ working class from Sanders “ seems a bit over the top .

    The Dems seemed poor at messaging around the economy , the media seemed to just regurgitate everything is terrible all the time .

    Biden's CHIPS Act and IRA Act seem to have done a lot for US manufacturing. His investments in infrastructure will boost future economic growth. His jobs record was frankly astonishing. Harris was right to endorse at least that part of his strategy. She also offered loans and grants for small businesses and first time house buyers. Her offering on the economy was rational and based on results. In contrast Trump offers tariffs which will damage both the US and world economies, tax cuts on tips and tax cuts for the rich which he did the last time and which expired during Biden's tenure.

    I think that the Dems did not do enough to boost what they had achieved and failed to counter a media determined to see nothing but problems everywhere. It should have been more of a priority. Harris largely closed the gap on the economy but she really should have been ahead and if she had been she would have won.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.

    Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.

    Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
    If it wasn't for the fact it's institutionally designed to be a Franco-German club I'd say Poland could easily become the natural new leader of Europe.

    They're the only one with balls and real hard power.
    Well the club is in crisis. Germany now on the edge of an election and France with a lame duck government and a doolally president.
    We should be immediately reconstituting the army to fully equip one full strength armoured warfighting division, deployed to Poland or the Baltic States, with another in reserve and a further in training.

    It would require expanding the army back up to c. 105-100k men

    Why we're not doing so baffles me. It's more important than NHS pay rises or the triple lock.

    Sorry.
    The Triple Lock should go and this govt should have the balls to do it now and get it out the way in time for 2029.
    I know youre sensibly thinking of packing up work but have you looked at budgets for 2025 yet ?

    I reckon for us NI will cost on average £900 per employee and the minimum wage will be about £1400 on cost per employee. In effect skilled workers will want to ensure they still have their wage differential so you will sort of have to give a rise to everyone.

    Were looking at some job cuts, price rises and managing salary mix, We were going to look at some expansion programmes but we have pushed that back to mid 2025 for a review when we know how things are panning out. Whats it like with you ?
    We have been looking at 2025 and it is not looking good. It is not grim, we won't be closing, but it is very much a case of tightening our belts and being cautious. Partly due to concerns about the global economy and partly due to concerns about the impact of the budget. On the plus side our order book us up about 5% year on year but our costs are increasing too so our overall margin is actually lower than last year.

    We believe for our site the NI changes will cost around £175,000 a year straight off the bottom line and we do not have the ability to simply increase our prices to recover it and the shop floor have just rejected a pay offer as well of 4.5%. We pay above the minimum wage for permies but the min wage increase will have a big impact on our temps and our cleaning contract.

    We now have discretionary spend banned. Travel is only allowed for new business opportunities. We had a marketing program lined up and good to go and it got cancelled at the last minute.

    We had voluntary severance last year. This may come again. However the issue is where do you cut when already pared back to the bone.

    It is easy for people to say "make less profit" but they don't realise profit is just not sent out to shareholders. Many businesses use profits to reinvest and grow the business or hold cash for when times are not as good.

    We have just put in a new water treatment plant. That would not have gone ahead in the current circumstances.
    Yes sounds like the script Im looking at. We are coming out of a tough 2024 and were in good shape heading in to 2025 but the budget hits will slow all this down and like you will we will focus on profit and cash rather than expansion.

    About the only good thing might be we will also look at more automation and use investment to replace labour. But that will be a couple of years off after we have absorbed he hit
    I would argue that you should always be looking at more automation but as you say that's never an immediate fix - it takes time for the automation to be identified, installed and finally implemented.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    The deportation plan of Trumps according to one of his aides will include legal citizen children . This was in response to a question about separating families because of the furore at the border during Trumps first term . This is because undocumented worker parents' children are legal if born in the USA...

    .

    They are, as you say, US citizens - by constitutional mandate.
    Trump's GOP wants to change that.

    Where it will get really messy is with the millions of immigrants who have been in the US for many decades, working and raising families.
    If the administration goes ahead with what Trump has promised/threatened, it will affect a very large proportion of the electorate, many if whom voted for him. And the process is likely to be very ugly indeed.

    The next few week's cabinet appointment choices will give us clues of what he actually intends.
    Retrospectively changing legal status will end up in the Supreme Court. It would set a very bad precedent .
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,420
    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    The deportation plan of Trumps according to one of his aides will include legal citizen children . This was in response to a question about separating families because of the furore at the border during Trumps first term . This is because undocumented worker parents' children are legal if born in the USA...

    .

    They are, as you say, US citizens - by constitutional mandate.
    Trump's GOP wants to change that.

    Where it will get really messy is with the millions of immigrants who have been in the US for many decades, working and raising families.
    If the administration goes ahead with what Trump has promised/threatened, it will affect a very large proportion of the electorate, many if whom voted for him. And the process is likely to be very ugly indeed.

    The next few week's cabinet appointment choices will give us clues of what he actually intends.
    Retrospectively changing legal status will end up in the Supreme Court. It would set a very bad precedent .
    The Supreme Court has shown it is happy to make bad precedent for a bad president.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,978

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, I was going to criticise Scholz for lack of leadership, but given his predecessor deepened the EU's migrant crisis entirely by choice and hooked Germany on Russian gas perhaps he's not all bad.

    Merkel’s reputation has nose-dived.

    Her predecessor was worse - a traitor.
    If it wasn't for the fact it's institutionally designed to be a Franco-German club I'd say Poland could easily become the natural new leader of Europe.

    They're the only one with balls and real hard power.
    Well the club is in crisis. Germany now on the edge of an election and France with a lame duck government and a doolally president.
    We should be immediately reconstituting the army to fully equip one full strength armoured warfighting division, deployed to Poland or the Baltic States, with another in reserve and a further in training.

    It would require expanding the army back up to c. 105-100k men

    Why we're not doing so baffles me. It's more important than NHS pay rises or the triple lock.

    Sorry.
    The Triple Lock should go and this govt should have the balls to do it now and get it out the way in time for 2029.
    I know youre sensibly thinking of packing up work but have you looked at budgets for 2025 yet ?

    I reckon for us NI will cost on average £900 per employee and the minimum wage will be about £1400 on cost per employee. In effect skilled workers will want to ensure they still have their wage differential so you will sort of have to give a rise to everyone.

    Were looking at some job cuts, price rises and managing salary mix, We were going to look at some expansion programmes but we have pushed that back to mid 2025 for a review when we know how things are panning out. Whats it like with you ?
    We have been looking at 2025 and it is not looking good. It is not grim, we won't be closing, but it is very much a case of tightening our belts and being cautious. Partly due to concerns about the global economy and partly due to concerns about the impact of the budget. On the plus side our order book us up about 5% year on year but our costs are increasing too so our overall margin is actually lower than last year.

    We believe for our site the NI changes will cost around £175,000 a year straight off the bottom line and we do not have the ability to simply increase our prices to recover it and the shop floor have just rejected a pay offer as well of 4.5%. We pay above the minimum wage for permies but the min wage increase will have a big impact on our temps and our cleaning contract.

    We now have discretionary spend banned. Travel is only allowed for new business opportunities. We had a marketing program lined up and good to go and it got cancelled at the last minute.

    We had voluntary severance last year. This may come again. However the issue is where do you cut when already pared back to the bone.

    It is easy for people to say "make less profit" but they don't realise profit is just not sent out to shareholders. Many businesses use profits to reinvest and grow the business or hold cash for when times are not as good.

    We have just put in a new water treatment plant. That would not have gone ahead in the current circumstances.
    Yes sounds like the script Im looking at. We are coming out of a tough 2024 and were in good shape heading in to 2025 but the budget hits will slow all this down and like you will we will focus on profit and cash rather than expansion.

    About the only good thing might be we will also look at more automation and use investment to replace labour. But that will be a couple of years off after we have absorbed he hit
    2024 was tough for us as well. The first year here we did not get a year end bonus (our bonus is incumbent on hitting 3 KPI's).

    We are looking at waste and waste elimination. We have had a pretty good scrap reduction program. Supply Chain have managed to reduce inventory to around 7% of annual turnover. The problem we have going forward is, as good as these endeavours are, it is diminishing laws of returns as we have taken the "low hanging fruit"

    Automation is something we will look at too but there is no capital budget for it currently. Our capital budget, which was reduced by the corporation by 50%, is being used on replacing tooling at the end of its natural life. So that won't be for another 12 months at least.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    The deportation plan of Trumps according to one of his aides will include legal citizen children . This was in response to a question about separating families because of the furore at the border during Trumps first term . This is because undocumented worker parents' children are legal if born in the USA...

    .

    They are, as you say, US citizens - by constitutional mandate.
    Trump's GOP wants to change that.

    Where it will get really messy is with the millions of immigrants who have been in the US for many decades, working and raising families.
    If the administration goes ahead with what Trump has promised/threatened, it will affect a very large proportion of the electorate, many if whom voted for him. And the process is likely to be very ugly indeed.

    The next few week's cabinet appointment choices will give us clues of what he actually intends.
    Retrospectively changing legal status will end up in the Supreme Court. It would set a very bad precedent .
    They can't, without actually changing the constitution. Even this court would jib at that.

    The policy will rather be "take your citizen child with you, or abandon them".
    But that's just one example; family situations will be much more complicated than that, of course.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,213
    Taz said:

    Jonathan said:

    Taz said:

    Andrew Neil on the US Election, and the Democrats failure.

    https://x.com/timesradio/status/1854212395226313048?s=61

    Everyone being very wise after the event... ;)
    That’s true. For some us there is some letting off of steam.

    Spent the last few months, after a decent launch that showed potential , waiting for Harris to share her vision, the big thing. It never came. WTF. By the end of September the writing was on the wall. There was nothing there. Just orange man bad.
    Next time the democrats won't be up against a candidate as divisive as Trump either. Something people should bear in mind when trying to cope by looking at how small a swing is needed in certain states.
    Sadly Trump seems to outpoll his Republican colleagues, who are by and large not that likeable or charismatic. Sadly from the perspective of an arsehole like him winning the presidency, but perhaps not such bad news for the Democrats in 4 years.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069

    Taz said:

    Jonathan said:

    Taz said:

    Andrew Neil on the US Election, and the Democrats failure.

    https://x.com/timesradio/status/1854212395226313048?s=61

    Everyone being very wise after the event... ;)
    That’s true. For some us there is some letting off of steam.

    Spent the last few months, after a decent launch that showed potential , waiting for Harris to share her vision, the big thing. It never came. WTF. By the end of September the writing was on the wall. There was nothing there. Just orange man bad.
    Next time the democrats won't be up against a candidate as divisive as Trump either. Something people should bear in mind when trying to cope by looking at how small a swing is needed in certain states.
    Romney and McCain were much less divisive than Trump. It didn’t win them the White House. Ditto Dole and George HW Bush.

    4 years is a long time away. I think it would be brave to make firm predictions about the next election.
    Romney and McCain were up against a good candidate though.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,978

    Taz said:

    Jonathan said:

    Taz said:

    Andrew Neil on the US Election, and the Democrats failure.

    https://x.com/timesradio/status/1854212395226313048?s=61

    Everyone being very wise after the event... ;)
    That’s true. For some us there is some letting off of steam.

    Spent the last few months, after a decent launch that showed potential , waiting for Harris to share her vision, the big thing. It never came. WTF. By the end of September the writing was on the wall. There was nothing there. Just orange man bad.
    Next time the democrats won't be up against a candidate as divisive as Trump either. Something people should bear in mind when trying to cope by looking at how small a swing is needed in certain states.
    Romney and McCain were much less divisive than Trump. It didn’t win them the White House. Ditto Dole and George HW Bush.

    4 years is a long time away. I think it would be brave to make firm predictions about the next election.
    I'm not making any prediction just saying those who think it is easy for the Dems as the swing needed is small need to be wary.

    Romney and McCain were up against a charismatic politician who inspired and had a vision.
This discussion has been closed.