"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
I’m thinking if moderate Republicans, who hate Trump and MAGA, have been quietly waiting for a moment to finish both off, then this is it. In politics you only make the move when it is the right moment - and this week is definitely that moment they have been waiting for.
So registered GOP to Dem switchers might like to go about this business discretely and unseen, so they are “snorkelling” - placing apparatus over our eyes, so we can’t clearly see what’s going on, and only know what they are up to when we “taste” the votes coming in. Trump/Kam canvasser knocks on door or pollster contacts them - they won’t tell anyone how they voted or intend to vote, they don’t want it seeping out… “have you voted, can you tell me who for?” “Yes. We have both voted already/will vote for Donald Trump.”
Sea Shanty, who I always read and respect, says be careful about dissing Ralston, but at same time how does Ralston explain latest polling giving Kam comfortable win in the state. If a lot of Snorkelling is going on, it’s out of sight, impossible for Ralston or anyone to detect it as it’s based on a large group of voters with a secret ballot lying in public.
If there are Reps across the country following clear lead of Chaney & Bush, but discreetly, how would any pundit, pollster, early vote registration counter or canvasser know? They can’t. It’s happening invisibly. An army will have put an end to Trump and MAGA, but you will never see them or know who they were. All the media, both campaigns, political bettors, will never see it coming.
But the first rule of politics is, you never make your move until the right moment.
Thanks for the full explanation. Of course, almost the entire Neocon establishment has come out as virulently anti-Trump on constitutional and national security issues. That part - the 200 former Trump appointees etc… - is certainly not snorkeling. But, I figure there are a lot of GOP housewives in MAGA households who do worry about their daughters and the abortion issue. And the MAGA milieu can be quite threatening if you live in a ruby red area where everyone has flags and guns. So that’s on of the two reasons I believe the pollster are systematically off. The other is that they are measuring the wrong electorate.
PS. There is a very lively debate in the political class on how, precisely, the Haley voters are going to vote in the general. That is a significant chunk of the GOP and could have a huge impact. It would also be understandable, if such people have ambitions within the party post Trump, that they would not want a 2024 defection to be widely known.
Presumably Haley supporters would rather Harris wins and Haley gets the GOP nomination next time. If Trump wins then another MAGA candidate will be groomed to succeed him, assuming Trump doesn't try to change the rules and run again.
More like 6th December on most polls, we must hope by 6th January
If Selzer is right then it wont be being held up until December.
I don't know anymore than anyone else. But pollsters underestimated Trump twice. They don't want to have been seen to do so three times. So, if Selzer is right, they may be overcompensating. Also explains the herding.
But I don't know. My hunch is worth jack shit.
One reason to be sceptical about the Selzer poll is that her numbers have historically tended to fluctuate quite a lot. In September 2020 she had Biden and Trump tied with Biden also 20 points ahead among women.
Huh? Many (indeed a cursory glance suggests most) polls considered Iowa as either leaning towards Trump or a tossup in September 2020. Quinnipiac even had Biden up 5% as late as the first week in October. Like most, Selzer (and indeed Quinnipiac who I use only as an example) moved during October towards Trump. Which may well reflect an actual shift, rather than Selzer's inaccuracy, given her final poll (48% to 41%) was closer than any other to the result (51% to 45%).
It's the nature of the way she had it as a tossup in September 2020 that I think is interesting, with the same extreme gender split as this latest poll.
Even in her final poll before the 2020 election, she had Biden ahead by 9% among women when the exit poll figures you quoted had Biden only 3% up among women.
You initially made a claim that there is reason to be sceptical about the Selzer poll that her figures tend to fluctuate a lot. I don't see any evidence of that - look at the March 2020 Selzer poll v the final one, the September poll was broadly consistent with movement from other pollsters.
As for the lead amongst women, that's a separate point, and doesn't support the thesis you originally presented IMO.
Look, I am not as strongly tied to this Selzer poll as you are averse to it, but her track record is very strong, and you've not (to me) made a coherent claim as to why she's off this time. She might be! I think Trump will win Iowa FWIW, but the argument you make doesn't stack up.
I'm aware of her track record and I'm not averse to this poll. I'm just pointing out that she also had some extreme anti-Trump numbers among women in 2020 that didn't materialise, even if the headline figure on her final poll was the most accurate.
You read like you are flustered. Despite Selzer's track record this is probably an outlier and you'll be fine. Although you do seem to be wishcasting like the rest of us.
One reason pollsters might be failing to pick up what Ann Selzer picked up in Iowa, is a lot of women are afraid to say they are voting for Harris.
Sharing stories yesterday after knocking doors in Pennsylvania, can't tell you the number of canvassers who had wives standing in the background while speaking to the husband and having them mouth something to the effect that they were voting for Harris. Or if they answered the door, they pretended to not say who they were voting for out loud and then whispered they were voting for Harris. It's kind of heartbreaking actually.
I like this story but then the question is: How did Selzer get them to talk?
Could it just be she didn’t weight them away by past vote recall etc
Politicalbetting.com (no joke!)
Last time around Mysticrose and Alastair Hutton were very helpful. Alastair operated a countdown to crossover after Trump initially took the lead (stop the count!) it was very handy for shredded nerves like mine.
Remember kids the early results go to the GOP because counting in a small rural Pennsylvania community is less time consuming than an inner city Philadelphia count.
I recall with some fondness a couple of Trumpers who were initially quite boorishly triumphant then became tetchier as the night went on, and then had an epic meltdown in the morning. Can’t recall their names but I daresay they may still be around with new identities.
It's late, time for you to go up that wooden stairs to (Mister) Bedfordshire.
I think this time around some changes have been made to address some of the counting issues (although not the case, alas, in PA). I believe GA has promised to have all the early votes published by 8pm. It would go a long way to putting a stop to the Trumpist shenanigans if GA can declare early and emphatically for Harris.
My current thoughts The presumption is that due to the polls being crap we have to build a book for to cover a big Dem win, a narrow Dem win, a narrow Trump win, and a Big Trump win. That;s not possible so all options have risk. My current thoughts are
LOW RISK: MINNESOTA, VIRGINIA. 1/14 and 1/8 Kamela to win Very much the bankers and will hopefully survive a Trumpnacht. Will bet 5X each
MEDIUM RISK: NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1/8 Kamela to win Uniformly ahead but one firm Praecones Analytica insists Trump will win, citing abortion and trans sports. Might be right, might not. Will bet 2X
HIGHEST RISK: GEORGIA, IOWA: 13/8, 5/2 Kamela to win @RCS1000 says Georgia will go Kamela, Selzer says Iowa will go Kamela. Will bet 1X each
AS YET UNDECIDED: NEVADA: 4/6 Trump to win Give me a day or two to think on it. 1X
My current thoughts The presumption is that due to the polls being crap we have to build a book for to cover a big Dem win, a narrow Dem win, a narrow Trump win, and a Big Trump win. That;s not possible so all options have risk. My current thoughts are
LOW RISK: MINNESOTA, VIRGINIA. 1/14 and 1/8 Kamela to win Very much the bankers and will hopefully survive a Trumpnacht. Will bet 5X each
MEDIUM RISK: NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1/8 Kamela to win Uniformly ahead but one firm Praecones Analytica insists Trump will win, citing abortion and trans sports. Might be right, might not. Will bet 2X
HIGHEST RISK: GEORGIA, IOWA: 13/8, 5/2 Kamela to win @RCS1000 says Georgia will go Kamela, Selzer says Iowa will go Kamela. Will bet 1X each
AS YET UNDECIDED: NEVADA: 4/6 Trump to win Give me a day or two to think on it. 1X
That's 15X. Still have another 5X to go
As for the Senate seats
MEDIUM RISK I: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy R to win Too far ahead in the polls. Will bet 2X
MEDIUM RISK II: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego D to win He's up against Kari Lake, who is a bit mad. Will bet 2X
My current thoughts The presumption is that due to the polls being crap we have to build a book for to cover a big Dem win, a narrow Dem win, a narrow Trump win, and a Big Trump win. That;s not possible so all options have risk. My current thoughts are
LOW RISK: MINNESOTA, VIRGINIA. 1/14 and 1/8 Kamela to win Very much the bankers and will hopefully survive a Trumpnacht. Will bet 5X each
MEDIUM RISK: NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1/8 Kamela to win Uniformly ahead but one firm Praecones Analytica insists Trump will win, citing abortion and trans sports. Might be right, might not. Will bet 2X
HIGHEST RISK: GEORGIA, IOWA: 13/8, 5/2 Kamela to win @RCS1000 says Georgia will go Kamela, Selzer says Iowa will go Kamela. Will bet 1X each
AS YET UNDECIDED: NEVADA: 4/6 Trump to win Give me a day or two to think on it. 1X
That's 15X. Still have another 5X to go
As for the Senate seats
MEDIUM RISK I: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy R to win Too far ahead in the polls. Will bet 2X
MEDIUM RISK II: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego D to win He's up against Kari Lake, who is a bit mad. Will bet 2X
Well those are my thoughts of this moment. The original plan was to bet 2K, which would make X=100. I don't know if I can get that in: partly thru sheer cowardice, partly thru logistics. I'll do what I can and let you know.
My current thoughts The presumption is that due to the polls being crap we have to build a book for to cover a big Dem win, a narrow Dem win, a narrow Trump win, and a Big Trump win. That;s not possible so all options have risk. My current thoughts are
LOW RISK: MINNESOTA, VIRGINIA. 1/14 and 1/8 Kamela to win Very much the bankers and will hopefully survive a Trumpnacht. Will bet 5X each
MEDIUM RISK: NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1/8 Kamela to win Uniformly ahead but one firm Praecones Analytica insists Trump will win, citing abortion and trans sports. Might be right, might not. Will bet 2X
HIGHEST RISK: GEORGIA, IOWA: 13/8, 5/2 Kamela to win @RCS1000 says Georgia will go Kamela, Selzer says Iowa will go Kamela. Will bet 1X each
AS YET UNDECIDED: NEVADA: 4/6 Trump to win Give me a day or two to think on it. 1X
That's 15X. Still have another 5X to go
As for the Senate seats
MEDIUM RISK I: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy R to win Too far ahead in the polls. Will bet 2X
MEDIUM RISK II: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego D to win He's up against Kari Lake, who is a bit mad. Will bet 2X
If Lake wins it is not just polling that is broken.
My current thoughts The presumption is that due to the polls being crap we have to build a book for to cover a big Dem win, a narrow Dem win, a narrow Trump win, and a Big Trump win. That;s not possible so all options have risk. My current thoughts are
LOW RISK: MINNESOTA, VIRGINIA. 1/14 and 1/8 Kamela to win Very much the bankers and will hopefully survive a Trumpnacht. Will bet 5X each
MEDIUM RISK: NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1/8 Kamela to win Uniformly ahead but one firm Praecones Analytica insists Trump will win, citing abortion and trans sports. Might be right, might not. Will bet 2X
HIGHEST RISK: GEORGIA, IOWA: 13/8, 5/2 Kamela to win @RCS1000 says Georgia will go Kamela, Selzer says Iowa will go Kamela. Will bet 1X each
AS YET UNDECIDED: NEVADA: 4/6 Trump to win Give me a day or two to think on it. 1X
That's 15X. Still have another 5X to go
As for the Senate seats
MEDIUM RISK I: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy R to win Too far ahead in the polls. Will bet 2X
MEDIUM RISK II: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego D to win He's up against Kari Lake, who is a bit mad. Will bet 2X
If Lake wins it is not just polling that is broken.
It is US politics.
One of the Perapathetic Traveler's former crushes . . . like Sarah Palin before her . . .
He dropped 'em both w/o explanation . . . OR did he get dumped? As if they or PB really gives a flying . . .
My current thoughts The presumption is that due to the polls being crap we have to build a book for to cover a big Dem win, a narrow Dem win, a narrow Trump win, and a Big Trump win. That;s not possible so all options have risk. My current thoughts are
LOW RISK: MINNESOTA, VIRGINIA. 1/14 and 1/8 Kamela to win Very much the bankers and will hopefully survive a Trumpnacht. Will bet 5X each
MEDIUM RISK: NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1/8 Kamela to win Uniformly ahead but one firm Praecones Analytica insists Trump will win, citing abortion and trans sports. Might be right, might not. Will bet 2X
HIGHEST RISK: GEORGIA, IOWA: 13/8, 5/2 Kamela to win @RCS1000 says Georgia will go Kamela, Selzer says Iowa will go Kamela. Will bet 1X each
AS YET UNDECIDED: NEVADA: 4/6 Trump to win Give me a day or two to think on it. 1X
My current thoughts The presumption is that due to the polls being crap we have to build a book for to cover a big Dem win, a narrow Dem win, a narrow Trump win, and a Big Trump win. That;s not possible so all options have risk. My current thoughts are
LOW RISK: MINNESOTA, VIRGINIA. 1/14 and 1/8 Kamela to win Very much the bankers and will hopefully survive a Trumpnacht. Will bet 5X each
MEDIUM RISK: NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1/8 Kamela to win Uniformly ahead but one firm Praecones Analytica insists Trump will win, citing abortion and trans sports. Might be right, might not. Will bet 2X
HIGHEST RISK: GEORGIA, IOWA: 13/8, 5/2 Kamela to win @RCS1000 says Georgia will go Kamela, Selzer says Iowa will go Kamela. Will bet 1X each
AS YET UNDECIDED: NEVADA: 4/6 Trump to win Give me a day or two to think on it. 1X
That's 15X. Still have another 5X to go
Good luck with your bets viewcode.
I have to work out a way of putting t'money in the slot. £2000 is 100 £20 notes or 40 £50 notes. Putting them into the whirry FOBTs takes time and they are not mechanically robust: I've had to have the desk bloke round to unjam a £20.
Politically. Young US males are tending Trump, young US women are not. If it's young women we can infer it's abortion related (yes I know: reductive), if young men it's the opposite. In a tight race it counts.
(Narrator: Viewcode is Britsplaining American politics to an American. Viewcode is stupid.)
Politically. Young US males are tending Trump, young US women are not. If it's young women we can infer it's abortion related (yes I know: reductive), if young men it's the opposite. In a tight race it counts.
(Narrator: Viewcode is Britsplaining American politics to an American. Viewcode is stupid.)
Is "t[r]ending Trump" same thing as him actually winning young males - actual 2024 voters that is?
Guess we're gonna find out this later this week! In the meantime, color me skeptical.
Also, AIUI, Ind=/= independent but rather unaffiliated, i.e. did not express a party affiliation and so were defaulted automatically by the system to Ind
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
I never figured out "Dutch Salute"
You aren’t the only one. Dutch Salute, Guess Boris’ Weight, and Viewcode’s Betting Shop Lament are three PB wonders that I fear will ever elude me.
"Dutch Salute": theory posited by @MoonRabbit for the 2024 UK GE that voters would alternate between Labour and LibDems, creating a sine-wave effect. Since a sine wave looks like boobs, it was called a "Dutch Salute" due to (presumably) Dutch people doing this. Found to be true.
"Snorkelling": theory posited by @MoonRabbit for the 2024 US POTUS that voters would lie to the pollsters, esp older women over burdened by their husbands, but express their true allegiance in the polling booth. Plausible but as yet unproven
"Guess Boris’ Weight": following Johnson's ascension to the Premiership, he put on weight as most do. His fans said (part-seriously, part-tongue-in-cheek) that it was all muscle. and it became a meme.
"EICIPM": Acronym for "Ed Is Crap Is PM", describing the phenomenon that Ed Miliband was derided but ahead in the polls. It turned out the pools were very wrong but the derision was accurate.
"Viewcode's Betting Shop Lament": a reference to an article written by Viewcode which noted the disparity in odds proferred in physical shops vs those online and mourned the lack of politically-aware bookmakers that resulted. In terms of comments it is by far the most popular article I've written, despite the fact it required no research other than memory
"Cyclefree Limit"/"Viewcode Limit"/"Ydoethur Limit". 1200, 1500 and 1800 word-long articles, named after the people who hit them first, each superseding the other
"Golden Rule": the theory posited by @OGH that the worst poll for Labour was the correct won. Was true until it wasn't.
"OGH": "Our Genial Host", the code for Mike Smithson, the founder of PB, now sadly retired.
"Nick's Threesome": the convention that any reference to the number three must be accompanied by a reference to [redacted], a PBer who once had...well, you can work it out
"Gross approval": rule of thumb by @OGH that the gross approval figures are the best predictor of an election
"Net approval": rule of thumb by @isam that the net approval figures are the best predictor of an election
"Pineapple of Pizza/Radiohead". PB Sibboleths. It is very important to have the correct opinion, which I have sadly forgotten
There always used to be two "golds" with PB. One was the one you've mentioned, the Golden Rule, the other was the Gold Standard polling company, which for a long time was Angus Reid. Now they don't even poll in the UK as far as I know, although they still operate in Canada.
My current thoughts The presumption is that due to the polls being crap we have to build a book for to cover a big Dem win, a narrow Dem win, a narrow Trump win, and a Big Trump win. That;s not possible so all options have risk. My current thoughts are
LOW RISK: MINNESOTA, VIRGINIA. 1/14 and 1/8 Kamela to win Very much the bankers and will hopefully survive a Trumpnacht. Will bet 5X each
MEDIUM RISK: NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1/8 Kamela to win Uniformly ahead but one firm Praecones Analytica insists Trump will win, citing abortion and trans sports. Might be right, might not. Will bet 2X
HIGHEST RISK: GEORGIA, IOWA: 13/8, 5/2 Kamela to win @RCS1000 says Georgia will go Kamela, Selzer says Iowa will go Kamela. Will bet 1X each
AS YET UNDECIDED: NEVADA: 4/6 Trump to win Give me a day or two to think on it. 1X
That's 15X. Still have another 5X to go
Georgia looks a lot more likely than Iowa, I think ? Or at least there's a lot more evidence out there on it.
Politically. Young US males are tending Trump, young US women are not. If it's young women we can infer it's abortion related (yes I know: reductive), if young men it's the opposite. In a tight race it counts.
(Narrator: Viewcode is Britsplaining American politics to an American. Viewcode is stupid.)
In any event, it's not either/or. Both will be turning out; I just seen the relative proportions. Though the rest of the turnout data suggests more women's than men.
The more interesting thing to me was the almost unchanged AZ data. Goes along with the other suggestions that it's one of Trump's most likely wins in the sunbelt.
Does Musk learn from his mistakes this time around and just give up on politics - or does he use it as experience to get better at buying future ejections ?
Elon Musk PAC has FIRED all the door-knockers it tricked and trapped into working for them in Michigan in back of U-Haul cargo vans
Wired magazine first broke story - and now everyone’s been fired for speaking up
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
I never figured out "Dutch Salute"
You aren’t the only one. Dutch Salute, Guess Boris’ Weight, and Viewcode’s Betting Shop Lament are three PB wonders that I fear will ever elude me.
"Dutch Salute": theory posited by @MoonRabbit for the 2024 UK GE that voters would alternate between Labour and LibDems, creating a sine-wave effect. Since a sine wave looks like boobs, it was called a "Dutch Salute" due to (presumably) Dutch people doing this. Found to be true.
"Snorkelling": theory posited by @MoonRabbit for the 2024 US POTUS that voters would lie to the pollsters, esp older women over burdened by their husbands, but express their true allegiance in the polling booth. Plausible but as yet unproven
"Guess Boris’ Weight": following Johnson's ascension to the Premiership, he put on weight as most do. His fans said (part-seriously, part-tongue-in-cheek) that it was all muscle. and it became a meme.
"EICIPM": Acronym for "Ed Is Crap Is PM", describing the phenomenon that Ed Miliband was derided but ahead in the polls. It turned out the pools were very wrong but the derision was accurate.
"Viewcode's Betting Shop Lament": a reference to an article written by Viewcode which noted the disparity in odds proferred in physical shops vs those online and mourned the lack of politically-aware bookmakers that resulted. In terms of comments it is by far the most popular article I've written, despite the fact it required no research other than memory
"Cyclefree Limit"/"Viewcode Limit"/"Ydoethur Limit". 1200, 1500 and 1800 word-long articles, named after the people who hit them first, each superseding the other
"Golden Rule": the theory posited by @OGH that the worst poll for Labour was the correct won. Was true until it wasn't.
"OGH": "Our Genial Host", the code for Mike Smithson, the founder of PB, now sadly retired.
"Nick's Threesome": the convention that any reference to the number three must be accompanied by a reference to [redacted], a PBer who once had...well, you can work it out
"Gross approval": rule of thumb by @OGH that the gross approval figures are the best predictor of an election
"Net approval": rule of thumb by @isam that the net approval figures are the best predictor of an election
"Pineapple of Pizza/Radiohead". PB Sibboleths. It is very important to have the correct opinion, which I have sadly forgotten
There always used to be two "golds" with PB. One was the one you've mentioned, the Golden Rule, the other was the Gold Standard polling company, which for a long time was Angus Reid. Now they don't even poll in the UK as far as I know, although they still operate in Canada.
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.
Good to see you back.
He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
Your not averse to dishing it out though yourself so get a grip and stop playing the victim. Your response to Leon was verging on the hysterical. I remember your baiting of @isam back in May just before he left the site. Even accusing him of having a thin skin. No irony there of course.
"Starmer refuses to take whip from Labour MP who shared ‘white supremacy’ post about Badenoch Pressure had grown on PM over ‘race-baiting’ retweet by Dawn Butler that targeted new Tory leader"
So we can assume that Ms Butler's effusions represent a strand of Labour opinion
I’m surprised at Starmers poor judgement here as Rupa Huw was suspended for a similar comment about Kwasi Kwarteng. If anything her comment was not as bad as Butlers.
Does Musk learn from his mistakes this time around and just give up on politics - or does he use it as experience to get better at buying future ejections ?
Elon Musk PAC has FIRED all the door-knockers it tricked and trapped into working for them in Michigan in back of U-Haul cargo vans
Wired magazine first broke story - and now everyone’s been fired for speaking up
This is what Musky Baby really means by 'government efficiency' : getting rid of the few rules, checks and balances that stop rich asshats such as himself from doing this sort of thing.
And it's why he should be let nowhere near any government department.
Which is most likely to be won by Harris out of Nevada and Arizona?
The polling seems to suggest a more solid Trump lead in Arizona.
Nevada has gone Democrat every election since 2008. It has teased Republicans, shown them some leg - then gone home with a Democrat...
So Arizona most likely Trump, Nevada the most likely of the two for Harris.
All the mood music seems to suggest that Trump is doing pretty well in both.
If you look at gender splits, male voters outnumber female in Nevada (which is very positive for the Republicans), while in Arizona, while women are ahead, the gap is very small.
Now: I will add a caveat to that. In Arizona, the Republicans do not have a sane Senatorial candidate that gets on the shelf voters to the polls. In 2016, I am pretty sure that Trump was elected on Ron Johnson's coattails in Wisconsin for example. If there hadn't been a Senate election that day, I doubt Trump would have won.
Plus, in Arizona there's an abortion access ballot proposition that seeks to overturn the (moderately but not crazy excessively) strict abortion limits set by the Republican State government.
For those reasons, I think Arizona could be a surprise. Trump favourite, to be sure, but a 60:40 favorite, not a 75:25 one.
Which is most likely to be won by Harris out of Nevada and Arizona?
The polling seems to suggest a more solid Trump lead in Arizona.
Nevada has gone Democrat every election since 2008. It has teased Republicans, shown them some leg - then gone home with a Democrat...
So Arizona most likely Trump, Nevada the most likely of the two for Harris.
All the mood music seems to suggest that Trump is doing pretty well in both.
If you look at gender splits, male voters outnumber female in Nevada (which is very positive for the Republicans), while in Arizona, while women are ahead, the gap is very small.
Now: I will add a caveat to that. In Arizona, the Republicans do not have a sane Senatorial candidate that gets on the shelf voters to the polls. In 2016, I am pretty sure that Trump was elected on Ron Johnson's coattails in Wisconsin for example. If there hadn't been a Senate election that day, I doubt Trump would have won.
Plus, in Arizona there's an abortion access ballot proposition that seeks to overturn the (moderately but not crazy excessively) strict abortion limits set by the Republican State government.
For those reasons, I think Arizona could be a surprise. Trump favourite, to be sure, but a 60:40 favorite, not a 75:25 one.
This is really why I’m very wary of betting on state by state. So many other variables that can have an impact. So far I’ve limited myself to betting on Harris to win as I think the trend is in her favour. Especially after the Puerto Rico gaffe.
I thought @viewcode put up an interesting post on his thoughts on state betting. But I’m not tempted.
lots of noise from Ryanair cutting flights from the U.K. over the modest changes to APD in the budget. Meanwhile Ryanair is struggling due to ongoing issues with Boeing. Not related to cutting flights and passenger numbers of course.
Which is most likely to be won by Harris out of Nevada and Arizona?
The polling seems to suggest a more solid Trump lead in Arizona.
Nevada has gone Democrat every election since 2008. It has teased Republicans, shown them some leg - then gone home with a Democrat...
So Arizona most likely Trump, Nevada the most likely of the two for Harris.
I think the Selzer poll does put a big question mark over a lot of the judgments based on "consensus polling". Even if it's what we would normally call an outlier (i.e. a one-in-twenty type of aberration), it is still so far from the consensus view that there must be a serious systematic error either (1) in it, or (2) in the polls in general, or (3) in both. Given Selzer's track record, it's difficult to believe (1) is the whole answer.
Does Musk learn from his mistakes this time around and just give up on politics - or does he use it as experience to get better at buying future ejections ?
Elon Musk PAC has FIRED all the door-knockers it tricked and trapped into working for them in Michigan in back of U-Haul cargo vans
Wired magazine first broke story - and now everyone’s been fired for speaking up
Musk seems to be on increasingly thin ice. If Trump loses, a lot of people will want to come after him. The South African grifter may find he has few friends and his financial backers have already taken a punishment beating with TwiX and Tesla...
Does Musk learn from his mistakes this time around and just give up on politics - or does he use it as experience to get better at buying future ejections ?
Elon Musk PAC has FIRED all the door-knockers it tricked and trapped into working for them in Michigan in back of U-Haul cargo vans
Wired magazine first broke story - and now everyone’s been fired for speaking up
Musk seems to be on increasingly thin ice. If Trump loses, a lot of people will want to come after him. The South African grifter may find he has few friends and his financial backers have already taken a punishment beating with TwiX and Tesla...
The Tesla share rampers appear to have quietened down somewhat over on Twix; but that may be because they've been redeployed to pro-Trump shilling. But Tesla's share price is now where it first reached in December 2020. It has been up (and down...) in that time, but the idea that Tesla shares are a massive money-earner over the medium or long term is false.
Compare with 'old' and unsexy shares such as MS. In December 2020, MS shares were at 222 dollars. Now they're at 416. Or IBM: 118 dollars in December 2020; now 208.
Tesla's share price is a lot more erratic than the price of those two, perhaps because of Musk's constant ramping of innovation that does not happen. But those two have outperformed in the long run.
Edit: or Oracle: from 60 to 170 in the same time frame.
Which is most likely to be won by Harris out of Nevada and Arizona?
The polling seems to suggest a more solid Trump lead in Arizona.
Nevada has gone Democrat every election since 2008. It has teased Republicans, shown them some leg - then gone home with a Democrat...
So Arizona most likely Trump, Nevada the most likely of the two for Harris.
I think the Selzer poll does put a big question mark over a lot of the judgments based on "consensus polling". Even if it's what we would normally call an outlier (i.e. a one-in-twenty type of aberration), it is still so far from the consensus view that there must be a serious systematic error either (1) in it, or (2) in the polls in general, or (3) in both. Given Selzer's track record, it's difficult to believe (1) is the whole answer.
That's my take.
Even more so as people who know their stuff have for a while been pointing out the problem with the non-Selzer polling - on how they past weight and so who they exclude from their samples.
Which is most likely to be won by Harris out of Nevada and Arizona?
The polling seems to suggest a more solid Trump lead in Arizona.
Nevada has gone Democrat every election since 2008. It has teased Republicans, shown them some leg - then gone home with a Democrat...
So Arizona most likely Trump, Nevada the most likely of the two for Harris.
If you look at gender splits, male voters outnumber female in Nevada (which is very positive for the Republicans), while in Arizona, while women are ahead, the gap is very small.
NBC Early Vote site has gender splits:
Nevada: Women 44, Men 44, Unknown 12
(Based on NV early vote of 1,086k; Ralston last update was 1,077k)
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.
Good to see you back.
He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
Your not averse to dishing it out though yourself so get a grip and stop playing the victim. Your response to Leon was verging on the hysterical. I remember your baiting of @isam back in May just before he left the site. Even accusing him of having a thin skin. No irony there of course.
I am fully aware I am a terrible human being. I said I took "time out" not that I am a victim. Look, I know @Taz and @leon and many others think I am a stain on the boxers of humanity and they're probably right. The difference between me and @Leon is that I know it and that's why I took time away.
You are right to think I am scum. I am. I am a despicable human being. Don't worry, I hate myself as much as you hate me.,
Which is most likely to be won by Harris out of Nevada and Arizona?
The polling seems to suggest a more solid Trump lead in Arizona.
Nevada has gone Democrat every election since 2008. It has teased Republicans, shown them some leg - then gone home with a Democrat...
So Arizona most likely Trump, Nevada the most likely of the two for Harris.
If you look at gender splits, male voters outnumber female in Nevada (which is very positive for the Republicans), while in Arizona, while women are ahead, the gap is very small.
NBC Early Vote site has gender splits:
Nevada: Women 44, Men 44, Unknown 12
(Based on NV early vote of 1,086k; Ralston last update was 1,077k)
Sorry if it's an obvious question, but is it known whether the polling data are generally consistent with the gender splits that have been seen in early voting?
A day after the Selzer poll, SoCal Strategies, at the behest of Red Eagle Politics, publishes an Iowa poll with a sample obtained and processed in less than 24 hours. It goes straight into the 538 average thing -
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.
Good to see you back.
He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
Your not averse to dishing it out though yourself so get a grip and stop playing the victim. Your response to Leon was verging on the hysterical. I remember your baiting of @isam back in May just before he left the site. Even accusing him of having a thin skin. No irony there of course.
I am fully aware I am a terrible human being. I said I took "time out" not that I am a victim. Look, I know @Taz and @leon and many others think I am a stain on the boxers of humanity and they're probably right. The difference between me and @Leon is that I know it and that's why I took time away.
You are right to think I am scum. I am. I am a despicable human being. Don't worry, I hate myself as much as you hate me.,
I don’t hate you. I don’t think you’re scum. I just think you’re a hypocrite happy to dish it out and not take it. You were extremely rude to me for no good reason when I made a comment about labour laws. I don’t know why. It was the same with Isam in May.
As for your final sentence, if you are serious, please please please seek some help and some reassurance. No one is a completely bad person. No one. There is help out there. Life is short, precious and important.
Which is most likely to be won by Harris out of Nevada and Arizona?
The polling seems to suggest a more solid Trump lead in Arizona.
Nevada has gone Democrat every election since 2008. It has teased Republicans, shown them some leg - then gone home with a Democrat...
So Arizona most likely Trump, Nevada the most likely of the two for Harris.
If you look at gender splits, male voters outnumber female in Nevada (which is very positive for the Republicans), while in Arizona, while women are ahead, the gap is very small.
NBC Early Vote site has gender splits:
Nevada: Women 44, Men 44, Unknown 12
(Based on NV early vote of 1,086k; Ralston last update was 1,077k)
Sorry if it's an obvious question, but is it known whether the polling data are generally consistent with the gender splits that have been seen in early voting?
No, I don't think it is - that's the whole point.
Most polls (but not Selzer) weight back to the 2020 actual voting demographic.
Whereas 2024 early vote shows a far higher share of women:
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.
Good to see you back.
He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
Your not averse to dishing it out though yourself so get a grip and stop playing the victim. Your response to Leon was verging on the hysterical. I remember your baiting of @isam back in May just before he left the site. Even accusing him of having a thin skin. No irony there of course.
Both Leon and iSam could dish it out to other posters, and both caused other posters to leave this site.
I'd welcome iSam back, for a number of reasons. Leon... less so. But fortunately I don't have any say on it.
Sample size of 435. And the much discussed Selzer poll is not that much better, with a sample size of 808.
The sample sizes of many US polls are embarrassingly small.
There’s going to be an awful lot of American pollsters with egg on their faces in 48 hours’ time.
One must wonder how these companies ever find any customers for their regular research projects, given their high-profile political polling has been terrible for years, or perhaps the amount of money in US politics means that partisan political polling is now their main business?
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
I’m thinking if moderate Republicans, who hate Trump and MAGA, have been quietly waiting for a moment to finish both off, then this is it. In politics you only make the move when it is the right moment - and this week is definitely that moment they have been waiting for.
So registered GOP to Dem switchers might like to go about this business discretely and unseen, so they are “snorkelling” - placing apparatus over our eyes, so we can’t clearly see what’s going on, and only know what they are up to when we “taste” the votes coming in. Trump/Kam canvasser knocks on door or pollster contacts them - they won’t tell anyone how they voted or intend to vote, they don’t want it seeping out… “have you voted, can you tell me who for?” “Yes. We have both voted already/will vote for Donald Trump.”
Sea Shanty, who I always read and respect, says be careful about dissing Ralston, but at same time how does Ralston explain latest polling giving Kam comfortable win in the state. If a lot of Snorkelling is going on, it’s out of sight, impossible for Ralston or anyone to detect it as it’s based on a large group of voters with a secret ballot lying in public.
If there are Reps across the country following clear lead of Chaney & Bush, but discreetly, how would any pundit, pollster, early vote registration counter or canvasser know? They can’t. It’s happening invisibly. An army will have put an end to Trump and MAGA, but you will never see them or know who they were. All the media, both campaigns, political bettors, will never see it coming.
But the first rule of politics is, you never make your move until the right moment.
Sample size of 435. And the much discussed Selzer poll is not that much better, with a sample size of 808.
The sample sizes of many US polls are embarrassingly small.
There’s going to be an awful lot of American pollsters with egg on their faces in 48 hours’ time.
One must wonder how these companies ever find any customers for their regular research projects, given their high-profile political polling has been terrible for years, or perhaps the amount of money in US politics means that partisan political polling is now their main business?
Many of these 'pollsters' probably get paid very well to get the results their clients want. I see no reason to believe, or trust, many of them.
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
I’m thinking if moderate Republicans, who hate Trump and MAGA, have been quietly waiting for a moment to finish both off, then this is it. In politics you only make the move when it is the right moment - and this week is definitely that moment they have been waiting for.
So registered GOP to Dem switchers might like to go about this business discretely and unseen, so they are “snorkelling” - placing apparatus over our eyes, so we can’t clearly see what’s going on, and only know what they are up to when we “taste” the votes coming in. Trump/Kam canvasser knocks on door or pollster contacts them - they won’t tell anyone how they voted or intend to vote, they don’t want it seeping out… “have you voted, can you tell me who for?” “Yes. We have both voted already/will vote for Donald Trump.”
Sea Shanty, who I always read and respect, says be careful about dissing Ralston, but at same time how does Ralston explain latest polling giving Kam comfortable win in the state. If a lot of Snorkelling is going on, it’s out of sight, impossible for Ralston or anyone to detect it as it’s based on a large group of voters with a secret ballot lying in public.
If there are Reps across the country following clear lead of Chaney & Bush, but discreetly, how would any pundit, pollster, early vote registration counter or canvasser know? They can’t. It’s happening invisibly. An army will have put an end to Trump and MAGA, but you will never see them or know who they were. All the media, both campaigns, political bettors, will never see it coming.
But the first rule of politics is, you never make your move until the right moment.
Thanks for the full explanation. Of course, almost the entire Neocon establishment has come out as virulently anti-Trump on constitutional and national security issues. That part - the 200 former Trump appointees etc… - is certainly not snorkeling. But, I figure there are a lot of GOP housewives in MAGA households who do worry about their daughters and the abortion issue. And the MAGA milieu can be quite threatening if you live in a ruby red area where everyone has flags and guns. So that’s on of the two reasons I believe the pollster are systematically off. The other is that they are measuring the wrong electorate.
PS. There is a very lively debate in the political class on how, precisely, the Haley voters are going to vote in the general. That is a significant chunk of the GOP and could have a huge impact. It would also be understandable, if such people have ambitions within the party post Trump, that they would not want a 2024 defection to be widely known.
Presumably Haley supporters would rather Harris wins and Haley gets the GOP nomination next time. If Trump wins then another MAGA candidate will be groomed to succeed him, assuming Trump doesn't try to change the rules and run again.
Haley ultimately, perhaps reluctantly, endorsed Trump. I don’t think most voters are that calculating, so they aren’t thinking about 2028, they’re just thinking Trump or Harris.
Sample size of 435. And the much discussed Selzer poll is not that much better, with a sample size of 808.
The sample sizes of many US polls are embarrassingly small.
There’s going to be an awful lot of American pollsters with egg on their faces in 48 hours’ time.
One must wonder how these companies ever find any customers for their regular research projects, given their high-profile political polling has been terrible for years, or perhaps the amount of money in US politics means that partisan political polling is now their main business?
Many of these 'pollsters' probably get paid very well to get the results their clients want. I see no reason to believe, or trust, many of them.
Kamala Harris will win comfortably, because: • Biden’s admin has been solid • Trump’s lost ground since 2016 • The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22 • Young women like Kamala + vote Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses
Sample size of 435. And the much discussed Selzer poll is not that much better, with a sample size of 808.
The sample sizes of many US polls are embarrassingly small.
Do they poll until they get the result they want, then stop?
I watch youtubers who drag race cars on the strip. Many of them cannot win the race. So they try 10 or 11 times till they win! I see a connection with what you saying.
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.
Good to see you back.
He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
Your not averse to dishing it out though yourself so get a grip and stop playing the victim. Your response to Leon was verging on the hysterical. I remember your baiting of @isam back in May just before he left the site. Even accusing him of having a thin skin. No irony there of course.
I am fully aware I am a terrible human being. I said I took "time out" not that I am a victim. Look, I know @Taz and @leon and many others think I am a stain on the boxers of humanity and they're probably right. The difference between me and @Leon is that I know it and that's why I took time away.
You are right to think I am scum. I am. I am a despicable human being. Don't worry, I hate myself as much as you hate me.,
Sample size of 435. And the much discussed Selzer poll is not that much better, with a sample size of 808.
The sample sizes of many US polls are embarrassingly small.
Do they poll until they get the result they want, then stop?
I watch youtubers who drag race cars on the strip. Many of them cannot win the race. So they try 10 or 11 times till they win! I see a connection with what you saying.
That explains the attempts to disrupt overseas voting with bombscares at the polling stations. If Russia is prepared to spend $100m to subvert the Moldovan election, you have to wonder what they're spending elsewhere.
That explains the attempts to disrupt overseas voting with bombscares at the polling stations. If Russia is prepared to spend $100m to subvert the Moldovan election, you have to wonder what they're spending elsewhere.
Have already spent... Not to mention the fake news, subversion, blackmail and bribery.
£16 million for Brexit seems pretty discount...
Always interesting to consider the Russian links of significant figures in certain quarters of the UK.
He's arguing that the national polls are under-sampling women, who are voting in larger numbers than men. And that Florida isn't as R safe as most assume. That Trump's closing week of the campaign has damaged him.
Hopeful reasons why a reasonable Dem win remains a credible scenario. Or wishful thinking from someone trying to analyse their way to the result they (we) want, of course.
On the news this morning. Labour has a plan to stop the boats. A novel approach. Not been tried before. Here we go again.
We will stop the boats by helicoptering in anyone who wants to come over from France. Hence: no boats. Job jobbed.
Given the relatively small numbers compared with legal migration, coupled with rapid processing at source, it would probably save money.
Until we paid the Calais authorities to build some heavy duty walls to stop the migrants, boats weren't a problem in the first place. We just displaced the journey into a far more dangerous and visceral one.
The BBC was still running with 'neck and neck' this morning.
It was left to its business report to highlight the potential significance of the Selzer poll.
Which led me to wonder what percentage of Betfair US election betting is in the UK, and how much overseas ?
It will probably be mostly UK, certainly in terms of client numbers. But it doesnt really matter as it can't diverge too far from polymarket which is mostly US and the odd French billionaire.
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.
Good to see you back.
He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
Your not averse to dishing it out though yourself so get a grip and stop playing the victim. Your response to Leon was verging on the hysterical. I remember your baiting of @isam back in May just before he left the site. Even accusing him of having a thin skin. No irony there of course.
Both Leon and iSam could dish it out to other posters, and both caused other posters to leave this site.
I'd welcome iSam back, for a number of reasons. Leon... less so. But fortunately I don't have any say on it.
I think Leon crossed the line last week. A debate I never got into as I felt no good would come of it and I didn't agree with Leon and did not want to join what would feel like a pile on and others were already holding him to account more ably than I could.
Crazy, imo at least, that expats can decide how the country they have left is run, over turning the wishes of the people who want to stay.
Ex-pats for more than a few years should have voting rights suspended until they return.
Nonsense. Those who have left Moldova are sending huge sums back as remittances, indeed without them the economy would be in an even bigger mess.
I accept I am in the minority on this but don't really understand why.
Another way of looking at it. If I moved to live in Switzerland, with an open ended contract and no intention to return, I would much rather be able to vote in Switzerland than the UK. And after a couple of years think myself more qualified to opine on the Swiss situation and future than the UK one.
These people are more than a little nuts, but I suspect the predictions of violence are probably exaggerated.
‘We are locked and loaded’: Trump fans in North Carolina ready for a ‘stolen election’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/03/trump-supporters-election-results ...A recent survey by the Public Religion Research Institute recorded that one in four Republican Trump supporters believe that were Trump to lose the election, he should declare the results invalid and do “whatever it takes” to retake the White House. That’s a sobering finding, but a grossly understated one, judging from the mood at Trump’s Kinston rally.
“People will riot if Trump doesn’t win,” said Cedric Perness, 38, an African American Trump supporter. He said it would be too dangerous for him to participate in any post-election unrest – “I’d get killed right there.”..
Crazy, imo at least, that expats can decide how the country they have left is run, over turning the wishes of the people who want to stay.
Ex-pats for more than a few years should have voting rights suspended until they return.
Nonsense. Those who have left Moldova are sending huge sums back as remittances, indeed without them the economy would be in an even bigger mess.
I accept I am in the minority on this but don't really understand why.
Another way of looking at it. If I moved to live in Switzerland, with an open ended contract and no intention to return, I would much rather be able to vote in Switzerland than the UK. And after a couple of years think myself more qualified to opine on the Swiss situation and future than the UK one.
But you wouldn’t be a Swiss citizen, and until you are a Swiss citizen you can only vote in the uk election.
Now replace Swiss with the uk and the uk with Moldova - granted you don’t live in Moldova but you want what’s best for that country which is likely to be EU membership.
Yes, size is not everything - but representativeness is a sticking plaster used to try to remedy the great weakness in opinion polls - that the samples are not random.
If you had a truly random sample, of sufficient size, you wouldn't need to weight the numbers at all.
Crazy, imo at least, that expats can decide how the country they have left is run, over turning the wishes of the people who want to stay.
Ex-pats for more than a few years should have voting rights suspended until they return.
Nonsense. Those who have left Moldova are sending huge sums back as remittances, indeed without them the economy would be in an even bigger mess.
I accept I am in the minority on this but don't really understand why.
Another way of looking at it. If I moved to live in Switzerland, with an open ended contract and no intention to return, I would much rather be able to vote in Switzerland than the UK. And after a couple of years think myself more qualified to opine on the Swiss situation and future than the UK one.
I think there’s a philosophical difference between countries for whom elections are, when alls said and done, about tax and public services, and those where it’s about constitution, identity and the long term future.
Moldova is a small and poor country grappling with questions that are more about citizenship than domestic macroeconomics. Particularly its future accession to the EU, where so many Moldovans are working (notably Romania).
I’d like Britain to have the system France does: elected MPs representing expat communities. Imagine being the Westminster MP for the Spanish costas, or the Dordogne.
Kamala Harris will win comfortably, because: • Biden’s admin has been solid • Trump’s lost ground since 2016 • The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22 • Young women like Kamala + vote Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses
The BBC was still running with 'neck and neck' this morning.
It was left to its business report to highlight the potential significance of the Selzer poll.
Which led me to wonder what percentage of Betfair US election betting is in the UK, and how much overseas ?
It will probably be mostly UK, certainly in terms of client numbers. But it doesnt really matter as it can't diverge too far from polymarket which is mostly US and the odd French billionaire.
There’s going to be a good story to be told about this French guy, said to be all-in on Trump for more than $10m. No hedging or playing markets, just a huge pile of bets all one way.
If he was American one could believe he was a proxy for a PAC trying to move the market, but not sure either side want a charge of overseas interference. Perhaps he is actually a French-American?
In US media news, NBC network gave Trump two free ads during the NFL and NASCAR events yesterday, to avoid suggestions of favouritism for inviting only Harris onto Saturday Night Live. They have similar ‘equal time’ rules to those in the UK, in the last week of the campaign. https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1853303566393389164
These people are more than a little nuts, but I suspect the predictions of violence are probably exaggerated.
‘We are locked and loaded’: Trump fans in North Carolina ready for a ‘stolen election’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/03/trump-supporters-election-results ...A recent survey by the Public Religion Research Institute recorded that one in four Republican Trump supporters believe that were Trump to lose the election, he should declare the results invalid and do “whatever it takes” to retake the White House. That’s a sobering finding, but a grossly understated one, judging from the mood at Trump’s Kinston rally.
“People will riot if Trump doesn’t win,” said Cedric Perness, 38, an African American Trump supporter. He said it would be too dangerous for him to participate in any post-election unrest – “I’d get killed right there.”..
It would give the required impetus to deal with some of absurdities in the Second Amendment if they tried violence with guns to overturn the result.
A nation of sore losers armed with semi-automatic assault rifles. Sheeesh.
I have not been convinced by the US polls for some time. Particularly in recent weeks where we don’t even seem to have seen any outlier effect and nearly every crucial state is a statistical dead heat. Now, it may be that the election genuinely is that close in each state and we’ll look back after election night and say the polling was telling us correctly that the election was pretty much un-callable. But if I was to hazard a guess there’s another effect also in play here which is significant herding and fear of being the odd one out. Not long to wait.
Kamala Harris will win comfortably, because: • Biden’s admin has been solid • Trump’s lost ground since 2016 • The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22 • Young women like Kamala + vote Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses
There’s been a truly weird vibe shift in social media over the weekend, from consensus Trump is cruising to victory to increasingly confident statements that Kamala is going to smash him. All based on one Iowa poll?
I don’t get it. All the grounds for a Trump Victory remain in place: anti-incumbency, perceptions on inflation and the economy, Trump’s personal ratings being higher than in 2016 or 2020, much closer national polling than 2020, the Conservative capture of the supreme court if things get that far.
It reminds me of the Brexit vote in the closing days. People started to wonder if actually it might not be that close. Remain to win easily. I’m not making that mistake again. Trump has got this.
There are some states, notably the all important PA, who get a fair chunk of their vote counted quickly and then dither. If its really close as the polls have been indicating that dithering could go on a while. If they are not we might get some idea in the early hours.
I am involved in a long running trial in Dundee at the moment. I am hopeful that I will get my jury speech done Tuesday afternoon after which it is enough to be present in body only but I am still not sure if it is worth staying up or just getting up early the next day. One factor is that unlike this country many polls close at 7pm Eastern time so we gain 3 hours there at least. Florida is one of the faster states. How close it is may have relevance to the swing states.
The BBC was still running with 'neck and neck' this morning.
It was left to its business report to highlight the potential significance of the Selzer poll.
Which led me to wonder what percentage of Betfair US election betting is in the UK, and how much overseas ?
It will probably be mostly UK, certainly in terms of client numbers. But it doesnt really matter as it can't diverge too far from polymarket which is mostly US and the odd French billionaire.
There’s going to be a good story to be told about this French guy, said to be all-in on Trump for more than $10m. No hedging or playing markets, just a huge pile of bets all one way.
If he was American one could believe he was a proxy for a PAC trying to move the market, but not sure either side want a charge of overseas interference. Perhaps he is actually a French-American?
In US media news, NBC network gave Trump two free ads during the NFL and NASCAR events yesterday, to avoid suggestions of favouritism for inviting only Harris onto Saturday Night Live. They have similar ‘equal time’ rules to those in the UK, in the last week of the campaign. https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1853303566393389164
So Harris got a few appearance on a show that reflects her demographics and Trump got one on events that target his demographics. A score draw at best then...
Comments
The presumption is that due to the polls being crap we have to build a book for to cover a big Dem win, a narrow Dem win, a narrow Trump win, and a Big Trump win. That;s not possible so all options have risk. My current thoughts are
LOW RISK: MINNESOTA, VIRGINIA. 1/14 and 1/8 Kamela to win
Very much the bankers and will hopefully survive a Trumpnacht. Will bet 5X each
MEDIUM RISK: NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1/8 Kamela to win
Uniformly ahead but one firm Praecones Analytica insists Trump will win, citing abortion and trans sports. Might be right, might not. Will bet 2X
HIGHEST RISK: GEORGIA, IOWA: 13/8, 5/2 Kamela to win
@RCS1000 says Georgia will go Kamela, Selzer says Iowa will go Kamela. Will bet 1X each
AS YET UNDECIDED: NEVADA: 4/6 Trump to win
Give me a day or two to think on it. 1X
That's 15X. Still have another 5X to go
General election poll - Iowa
🔴 Trump 52% (+8)
🔵 Harris 44%
Socal - 435 LV - 11/3
MEDIUM RISK I: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy R to win
Too far ahead in the polls. Will bet 2X
MEDIUM RISK II: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego D to win
He's up against Kari Lake, who is a bit mad. Will bet 2X
*Haley voters wave*
Ind =/= 50:50 for Trump
It is US politics.
He dropped 'em both w/o explanation . . . OR did he get dumped? As if they or PB really gives a flying . . .
(Narrator: Viewcode is Britsplaining American politics to an American. Viewcode is stupid.)
Guess we're gonna find out this later this week! In the meantime, color me skeptical.
Latinos voting 64 Harris - 30 Trump
Puerto Ricans voting 67 Harris - 27 Trump
Trump holding only 82% of his 2020 voters (Dems holding 89%).
There's maybe 150,000 Puerto Ricans in Philadelphia alone.
Trump is really in trouble if he thinks Latinos are going to flock to him this time.
Also, note the Peurto Rican populations in Florida:
Orlando 41k, Jacksonville 33k, Poinciana 27k, Tampa 26k, Kissimee 25k, Deltona 23k, Alafaya 18k, St Cloud 17k...
Trump won Florida in 2020 by just 330,000 votes.
That joke isn't funny any more.
Nevada has gone Democrat every election since 2008. It has teased Republicans, shown them some leg - then gone home with a Democrat...
So Arizona most likely Trump, Nevada the most likely of the two for Harris.
Or at least there's a lot more evidence out there on it.
https://x.com/malcontentmentt/status/1853241846878945739?s=61
Though the rest of the turnout data suggests more women's than men.
The more interesting thing to me was the almost unchanged AZ data.
Goes along with the other suggestions that it's one of Trump's most likely wins in the sunbelt.
Elon Musk PAC has FIRED all the door-knockers it tricked and trapped into working for them in Michigan in back of U-Haul cargo vans
Wired magazine first broke story - and now everyone’s been fired for speaking up
And some were not paid until Wired looked into it
https://x.com/TristanSnell/status/1853124767777202573
Calling Angus Reid that was mockery
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-64835061
Of course, it might just be a really dull journalist cliche that it was a "comic" who lost the election.
And it's why he should be let nowhere near any government department.
I especially like his take on Florida...
If you look at gender splits, male voters outnumber female in Nevada (which is very positive for the Republicans), while in Arizona, while women are ahead, the gap is very small.
Now: I will add a caveat to that. In Arizona, the Republicans do not have a sane Senatorial candidate that gets on the shelf voters to the polls. In 2016, I am pretty sure that Trump was elected on Ron Johnson's coattails in Wisconsin for example. If there hadn't been a Senate election that day, I doubt Trump would have won.
Plus, in Arizona there's an abortion access ballot proposition that seeks to overturn the (moderately but not crazy excessively) strict abortion limits set by the Republican State government.
For those reasons, I think Arizona could be a surprise. Trump favourite, to be sure, but a 60:40 favorite, not a 75:25 one.
I thought @viewcode put up an interesting post on his thoughts on state betting. But I’m not tempted.
https://x.com/skynews/status/1853319483626008818?s=61
Compare with 'old' and unsexy shares such as MS. In December 2020, MS shares were at 222 dollars. Now they're at 416. Or IBM: 118 dollars in December 2020; now 208.
Tesla's share price is a lot more erratic than the price of those two, perhaps because of Musk's constant ramping of innovation that does not happen. But those two have outperformed in the long run.
Edit: or Oracle: from 60 to 170 in the same time frame.
Even more so as people who know their stuff have for a while been pointing out the problem with the non-Selzer polling - on how they past weight and so who they exclude from their samples.
Nevada: Women 44, Men 44, Unknown 12
(Based on NV early vote of 1,086k; Ralston last update was 1,077k)
Arizona: Women 48, Men 43, Unknown 9
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote
You are right to think I am scum. I am. I am a despicable human being. Don't worry, I hate myself as much as you hate me.,
https://substack.com/home/post/p-151135765
Sandu actually lost amongst those living in Moldova by 49:51.
But she won Expats by 83:17 (and they are 20% of the vote).
Giving Sandu an overall win by 55:45.
https://pv.cec.md/cec-presidential-results-tour2.html
As for your final sentence, if you are serious, please please please seek some help and some reassurance. No one is a completely bad person. No one. There is help out there. Life is short, precious and important.
Most polls (but not Selzer) weight back to the 2020 actual voting demographic.
Whereas 2024 early vote shows a far higher share of women:
USA Total Early Vote = 76.2m
Gender split: Women 53, Men 44, Unknown 3
I'd welcome iSam back, for a number of reasons. Leon... less so. But fortunately I don't have any say on it.
The sample sizes of many US polls are embarrassingly small.
One must wonder how these companies ever find any customers for their regular research projects, given their high-profile political polling has been terrible for years, or perhaps the amount of money in US politics means that partisan political polling is now their main business?
Kamala Harris will win comfortably, because:
• Biden’s admin has been solid
• Trump’s lost ground since 2016
• The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22
• Young women like Kamala + vote
Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses
https://x.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1853325635747266782
It's the representativeness of a sample that matters, and the participation rate, including likelihood of voting.
The textbook example of this was the Literary Digest poll of 1936. Two and a half million voters polled and 19% out from the true result.
https://about.proquest.com/en/blog/2016/That-Time-the-Literary-Digest-Poll-Got-1936-Election-Wrong/
If Russia is prepared to spend $100m to subvert the Moldovan election, you have to wonder what they're spending elsewhere.
£16 million for Brexit seems pretty discount...
Always interesting to consider the Russian links of significant figures in certain quarters of the UK.
Ex-pats for more than a few years should have voting rights suspended until they return.
Hopeful reasons why a reasonable Dem win remains a credible scenario. Or wishful thinking from someone trying to analyse their way to the result they (we) want, of course.
It was left to its business report to highlight the potential significance of the Selzer poll.
Which led me to wonder what percentage of Betfair US election betting is in the UK, and how much overseas ?
If they exist, then they're the difference between a Harris win, and a bigger Harris win, most likely.
Another way of looking at it. If I moved to live in Switzerland, with an open ended contract and no intention to return, I would much rather be able to vote in Switzerland than the UK. And after a couple of years think myself more qualified to opine on the Swiss situation and future than the UK one.
‘We are locked and loaded’: Trump fans in North Carolina ready for a ‘stolen election’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/03/trump-supporters-election-results
...A recent survey by the Public Religion Research Institute recorded that one in four Republican Trump supporters believe that were Trump to lose the election, he should declare the results invalid and do “whatever it takes” to retake the White House. That’s a sobering finding, but a grossly understated one, judging from the mood at Trump’s Kinston rally.
“People will riot if Trump doesn’t win,” said Cedric Perness, 38, an African American Trump supporter. He said it would be too dangerous for him to participate in any post-election unrest – “I’d get killed right there.”..
Now replace Swiss with the uk and the uk with Moldova - granted you don’t live in Moldova but you want what’s best for that country which is likely to be EU membership.
F1: what a lovely day.
Mr. Jessop, surely the way to stop the boats is to unleash the kraken?
If you had a truly random sample, of sufficient size, you wouldn't need to weight the numbers at all.
Moldova is a small and poor country grappling with questions that are more about citizenship than domestic macroeconomics. Particularly its future accession to the EU, where so many Moldovans are working (notably Romania).
I’d like Britain to have the system France does: elected MPs representing expat communities. Imagine being the Westminster MP for the Spanish costas, or the Dordogne.
If he was American one could believe he was a proxy for a PAC trying to move the market, but not sure either side want a charge of overseas interference. Perhaps he is actually a French-American?
In US media news, NBC network gave Trump two free ads during the NFL and NASCAR events yesterday, to avoid suggestions of favouritism for inviting only Harris onto Saturday Night Live. They have similar ‘equal time’ rules to those in the UK, in the last week of the campaign. https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1853303566393389164
A nation of sore losers armed with semi-automatic assault rifles. Sheeesh.
I don’t get it. All the grounds for a Trump Victory remain in place: anti-incumbency, perceptions on inflation and the economy, Trump’s personal ratings being higher than in 2016 or 2020, much closer national polling than 2020, the Conservative capture of the supreme court if things get that far.
It reminds me of the Brexit vote in the closing days. People started to wonder if actually it might not be that close. Remain to win easily. I’m not making that mistake again. Trump has got this.
There are some states, notably the all important PA, who get a fair chunk of their vote counted quickly and then dither. If its really close as the polls have been indicating that dithering could go on a while. If they are not we might get some idea in the early hours.
I am involved in a long running trial in Dundee at the moment. I am hopeful that I will get my jury speech done Tuesday afternoon after which it is enough to be present in body only but I am still not sure if it is worth staying up or just getting up early the next day. One factor is that unlike this country many polls close at 7pm Eastern time so we gain 3 hours there at least. Florida is one of the faster states. How close it is may have relevance to the swing states.
Rachel Reeves is expected to lay out an overhaul of the pensions industry in her mansion house speech in Mid November.
She is a fan of the Canadian system (or has been successfully lobbied by those who favour it) and of Combined DC funds.
I Shall most certainly move my company DC to my SIPP When I retire anyway.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/rachel-reeves-expected-to-lay-out-pensions-overhaul-with-rumours-of-canada-style-reform/ar-AA1tqLP1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=28a041895d804c82a4e4607af95a6c3f&ei=11