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This explains why the Selzer poll is different to others – politicalbetting.com

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  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 426
    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @viewcode

    From the NYTimes polling in Nevada:

    "The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."

    @rcs1000

    It's not enough.

    According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829

    If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.

    The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.

    If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730

    Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
    Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?

    The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
    I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
    I’m thinking if moderate Republicans, who hate Trump and MAGA, have been quietly waiting for a moment to finish both off, then this is it. In politics you only make the move when it is the right moment - and this week is definitely that moment they have been waiting for.

    So registered GOP to Dem switchers might like to go about this business discretely and unseen, so they are “snorkelling” - placing apparatus over our eyes, so we can’t clearly see what’s going on, and only know what they are up to when we “taste” the votes coming in.
    Trump/Kam canvasser knocks on door or pollster contacts them - they won’t tell anyone how they voted or intend to vote, they don’t want it seeping out…
    “have you voted, can you tell me who for?”
    “Yes. We have both voted already/will vote for Donald Trump.”

    Sea Shanty, who I always read and respect, says be careful about dissing Ralston, but at same time how does Ralston explain latest polling giving Kam comfortable win in the state. If a lot of Snorkelling is going on, it’s out of sight, impossible for Ralston or anyone to detect it as it’s based on a large group of voters with a secret ballot lying in public.

    If there are Reps across the country following clear lead of Chaney & Bush, but discreetly, how would any pundit, pollster, early vote registration counter or canvasser know? They can’t. It’s happening invisibly. An army will have put an end to Trump and MAGA, but you will never see them or know who they were. All the media, both campaigns, political bettors, will never see it coming.

    But the first rule of politics is, you never make your move until the right moment.
    Thanks for the full explanation. Of course, almost the entire Neocon establishment has come out as virulently anti-Trump on constitutional and national security issues. That part - the 200 former Trump appointees etc… - is certainly not snorkeling. But, I figure there are a lot of GOP housewives in MAGA households who do worry about their daughters and the abortion issue. And the MAGA milieu can be quite threatening if you live in a ruby red area where everyone has flags and guns. So that’s on of the two reasons I believe the pollster are systematically off. The other is that they are measuring the wrong electorate.
    PS. There is a very lively debate in the political class on how, precisely, the Haley voters are going to vote in the general. That is a significant chunk of the GOP and could have a huge impact. It would also be understandable, if such people have ambitions within the party post Trump, that they would not want a 2024 defection to be widely known.
    Presumably Haley supporters would rather Harris wins and Haley gets the GOP nomination next time. If Trump wins then another MAGA candidate will be groomed to succeed him, assuming Trump doesn't try to change the rules and run again.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Every pollster: It is an absolute coin toss.

    Selzer: The emperor has no clothes.

    One of them will be right by 6th November.

    More like 6th December on most polls, we must hope by 6th January
    If Selzer is right then it wont be being held up until December.
    I don't know anymore than anyone else. But pollsters underestimated Trump twice. They don't want to have been seen to do so three times. So, if Selzer is right, they may be overcompensating. Also explains the herding.

    But I don't know. My hunch is worth jack shit.
    One reason to be sceptical about the Selzer poll is that her numbers have historically tended to fluctuate quite a lot. In September 2020 she had Biden and Trump tied with Biden also 20 points ahead among women.

    https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/09/22/iowa-poll-donald-trump-joe-biden-tied-iowa-presidential-race-2020/5839311002/
    Huh? Many (indeed a cursory glance suggests most) polls considered Iowa as either leaning towards Trump or a tossup in September 2020. Quinnipiac even had Biden up 5% as late as the first week in October. Like most, Selzer (and indeed Quinnipiac who I use only as an example) moved during October towards Trump. Which may well reflect an actual shift, rather than Selzer's inaccuracy, given her final poll (48% to 41%) was closer than any other to the result (51% to 45%).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa
    It's the nature of the way she had it as a tossup in September 2020 that I think is interesting, with the same extreme gender split as this latest poll.

    Even in her final poll before the 2020 election, she had Biden ahead by 9% among women when the exit poll figures you quoted had Biden only 3% up among women.
    You initially made a claim that there is reason to be sceptical about the Selzer poll that her figures tend to fluctuate a lot. I don't see any evidence of that - look at the March 2020 Selzer poll v the final one, the September poll was broadly consistent with movement from other pollsters.

    As for the lead amongst women, that's a separate point, and doesn't support the thesis you originally presented IMO.

    Look, I am not as strongly tied to this Selzer poll as you are averse to it, but her track record is very strong, and you've not (to me) made a coherent claim as to why she's off this time. She might be! I think Trump will win Iowa FWIW, but the argument you make doesn't stack up.
    I'm aware of her track record and I'm not averse to this poll. I'm just pointing out that she also had some extreme anti-Trump numbers among women in 2020 that didn't materialise, even if the headline figure on her final poll was the most accurate.
    You read like you are flustered. Despite Selzer's track record this is probably an outlier and you'll be fine. Although you do seem to be wishcasting like the rest of us.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    edited November 4

    ToryJim said:

    Evening all. On Tuesday where is the best place to watch the results.

    https://x.com/amy_siskind/status/1853065830893781003

    One reason pollsters might be failing to pick up what Ann Selzer picked up in Iowa, is a lot of women are afraid to say they are voting for Harris.

    Sharing stories yesterday after knocking doors in Pennsylvania, can't tell you the number of canvassers who had wives standing in the background while speaking to the husband and having them mouth something to the effect that they were voting for Harris. Or if they answered the door, they pretended to not say who they were voting for out loud and then whispered they were voting for Harris. It's kind of heartbreaking actually.

    I like this story but then the question is: How did Selzer get them to talk?
    Could it just be she didn’t weight them away by past vote recall etc
    Politicalbetting.com (no joke!)

    Last time around Mysticrose and Alastair Hutton were very helpful. Alastair operated a countdown to crossover after Trump initially took the lead (stop the count!) it was very handy for shredded nerves like mine.

    Remember kids the early results go to the GOP because counting in a small rural Pennsylvania community is less time consuming than an inner city Philadelphia count.
    I recall with some fondness a couple of Trumpers who were initially quite boorishly triumphant then became tetchier as the night went on, and then had an epic meltdown in the morning. Can’t recall their names but I daresay they may still be around with new identities.
    @MrEd was one, he walks among us I feel
    It's late, time for you to go up that wooden stairs to (Mister) Bedfordshire.
    I think this time around some changes have been made to address some of the counting issues (although not the case, alas, in PA). I believe GA has promised to have all the early votes published by 8pm. It would go a long way to putting a stop to the Trumpist shenanigans if GA can declare early and emphatically for Harris.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    My current thoughts
    The presumption is that due to the polls being crap we have to build a book for to cover a big Dem win, a narrow Dem win, a narrow Trump win, and a Big Trump win. That;s not possible so all options have risk. My current thoughts are

    LOW RISK: MINNESOTA, VIRGINIA. 1/14 and 1/8 Kamela to win
    Very much the bankers and will hopefully survive a Trumpnacht. Will bet 5X each

    MEDIUM RISK: NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1/8 Kamela to win
    Uniformly ahead but one firm Praecones Analytica insists Trump will win, citing abortion and trans sports. Might be right, might not. Will bet 2X

    HIGHEST RISK: GEORGIA, IOWA: 13/8, 5/2 Kamela to win
    @RCS1000 says Georgia will go Kamela, Selzer says Iowa will go Kamela. Will bet 1X each

    AS YET UNDECIDED: NEVADA: 4/6 Trump to win
    Give me a day or two to think on it. 1X

    That's 15X. Still have another 5X to go



  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1853236967506604136

    General election poll - Iowa

    🔴 Trump 52% (+8)
    🔵 Harris 44%

    Socal - 435 LV - 11/3
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    viewcode said:

    My current thoughts
    The presumption is that due to the polls being crap we have to build a book for to cover a big Dem win, a narrow Dem win, a narrow Trump win, and a Big Trump win. That;s not possible so all options have risk. My current thoughts are

    LOW RISK: MINNESOTA, VIRGINIA. 1/14 and 1/8 Kamela to win
    Very much the bankers and will hopefully survive a Trumpnacht. Will bet 5X each

    MEDIUM RISK: NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1/8 Kamela to win
    Uniformly ahead but one firm Praecones Analytica insists Trump will win, citing abortion and trans sports. Might be right, might not. Will bet 2X

    HIGHEST RISK: GEORGIA, IOWA: 13/8, 5/2 Kamela to win
    @RCS1000 says Georgia will go Kamela, Selzer says Iowa will go Kamela. Will bet 1X each

    AS YET UNDECIDED: NEVADA: 4/6 Trump to win
    Give me a day or two to think on it. 1X

    That's 15X. Still have another 5X to go



    As for the Senate seats

    MEDIUM RISK I: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy R to win
    Too far ahead in the polls. Will bet 2X

    MEDIUM RISK II: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego D to win
    He's up against Kari Lake, who is a bit mad. Will bet 2X
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    My current thoughts
    The presumption is that due to the polls being crap we have to build a book for to cover a big Dem win, a narrow Dem win, a narrow Trump win, and a Big Trump win. That;s not possible so all options have risk. My current thoughts are

    LOW RISK: MINNESOTA, VIRGINIA. 1/14 and 1/8 Kamela to win
    Very much the bankers and will hopefully survive a Trumpnacht. Will bet 5X each

    MEDIUM RISK: NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1/8 Kamela to win
    Uniformly ahead but one firm Praecones Analytica insists Trump will win, citing abortion and trans sports. Might be right, might not. Will bet 2X

    HIGHEST RISK: GEORGIA, IOWA: 13/8, 5/2 Kamela to win
    @RCS1000 says Georgia will go Kamela, Selzer says Iowa will go Kamela. Will bet 1X each

    AS YET UNDECIDED: NEVADA: 4/6 Trump to win
    Give me a day or two to think on it. 1X

    That's 15X. Still have another 5X to go



    As for the Senate seats

    MEDIUM RISK I: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy R to win
    Too far ahead in the polls. Will bet 2X

    MEDIUM RISK II: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego D to win
    He's up against Kari Lake, who is a bit mad. Will bet 2X
    Well those are my thoughts of this moment. The original plan was to bet 2K, which would make X=100. I don't know if I can get that in: partly thru sheer cowardice, partly thru logistics. I'll do what I can and let you know.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    MikeL said:

    Ralston just updated.

    Registered Rep lead 43k (4.0%)

    Rep 37.7
    Dem 33.7
    Ind 28.6

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

    Registered Republicans =/= votes for Trump

    *Haley voters wave*

    Ind =/= 50:50 for Trump
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,548
    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another early voting metric,

    Holy shit. As early voting comes to a close, young voters are continuing to WILDLY outperform our EV benchmarks.

    US: +40%
    AZ: +3%
    GA: +60%
    MI: + 255%
    NC: +61%
    PA: +117%
    WI: +4%

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853154726415610284

    Actual percentages of young registered voters who've voted so far:

    AZ: 18%
    GA: 28.2%
    MI: 15.4%
    NC: 32.1%
    NV: 19.1%
    PA: 8.6%
    WI: 18.1%

    Young men or young women? Enormous difference.
    Enormous? Really?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,548

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    My current thoughts
    The presumption is that due to the polls being crap we have to build a book for to cover a big Dem win, a narrow Dem win, a narrow Trump win, and a Big Trump win. That;s not possible so all options have risk. My current thoughts are

    LOW RISK: MINNESOTA, VIRGINIA. 1/14 and 1/8 Kamela to win
    Very much the bankers and will hopefully survive a Trumpnacht. Will bet 5X each

    MEDIUM RISK: NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1/8 Kamela to win
    Uniformly ahead but one firm Praecones Analytica insists Trump will win, citing abortion and trans sports. Might be right, might not. Will bet 2X

    HIGHEST RISK: GEORGIA, IOWA: 13/8, 5/2 Kamela to win
    @RCS1000 says Georgia will go Kamela, Selzer says Iowa will go Kamela. Will bet 1X each

    AS YET UNDECIDED: NEVADA: 4/6 Trump to win
    Give me a day or two to think on it. 1X

    That's 15X. Still have another 5X to go



    As for the Senate seats

    MEDIUM RISK I: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy R to win
    Too far ahead in the polls. Will bet 2X

    MEDIUM RISK II: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego D to win
    He's up against Kari Lake, who is a bit mad. Will bet 2X
    If Lake wins it is not just polling that is broken.

    It is US politics.
    One of the Perapathetic Traveler's former crushes . . . like Sarah Palin before her . . .

    He dropped 'em both w/o explanation . . . OR did he get dumped? As if they or PB really gives a flying . . .
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,167
    viewcode said:

    My current thoughts
    The presumption is that due to the polls being crap we have to build a book for to cover a big Dem win, a narrow Dem win, a narrow Trump win, and a Big Trump win. That;s not possible so all options have risk. My current thoughts are

    LOW RISK: MINNESOTA, VIRGINIA. 1/14 and 1/8 Kamela to win
    Very much the bankers and will hopefully survive a Trumpnacht. Will bet 5X each

    MEDIUM RISK: NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1/8 Kamela to win
    Uniformly ahead but one firm Praecones Analytica insists Trump will win, citing abortion and trans sports. Might be right, might not. Will bet 2X

    HIGHEST RISK: GEORGIA, IOWA: 13/8, 5/2 Kamela to win
    @RCS1000 says Georgia will go Kamela, Selzer says Iowa will go Kamela. Will bet 1X each

    AS YET UNDECIDED: NEVADA: 4/6 Trump to win
    Give me a day or two to think on it. 1X

    That's 15X. Still have another 5X to go



    Good luck with your bets viewcode.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    My current thoughts
    The presumption is that due to the polls being crap we have to build a book for to cover a big Dem win, a narrow Dem win, a narrow Trump win, and a Big Trump win. That;s not possible so all options have risk. My current thoughts are

    LOW RISK: MINNESOTA, VIRGINIA. 1/14 and 1/8 Kamela to win
    Very much the bankers and will hopefully survive a Trumpnacht. Will bet 5X each

    MEDIUM RISK: NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1/8 Kamela to win
    Uniformly ahead but one firm Praecones Analytica insists Trump will win, citing abortion and trans sports. Might be right, might not. Will bet 2X

    HIGHEST RISK: GEORGIA, IOWA: 13/8, 5/2 Kamela to win
    @RCS1000 says Georgia will go Kamela, Selzer says Iowa will go Kamela. Will bet 1X each

    AS YET UNDECIDED: NEVADA: 4/6 Trump to win
    Give me a day or two to think on it. 1X

    That's 15X. Still have another 5X to go



    Good luck with your bets viewcode.
    I have to work out a way of putting t'money in the slot. £2000 is 100 £20 notes or 40 £50 notes. Putting them into the whirry FOBTs takes time and they are not mechanically robust: I've had to have the desk bloke round to unjam a £20.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    edited November 4

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another early voting metric,

    Holy shit. As early voting comes to a close, young voters are continuing to WILDLY outperform our EV benchmarks.

    US: +40%
    AZ: +3%
    GA: +60%
    MI: + 255%
    NC: +61%
    PA: +117%
    WI: +4%

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853154726415610284

    Actual percentages of young registered voters who've voted so far:

    AZ: 18%
    GA: 28.2%
    MI: 15.4%
    NC: 32.1%
    NV: 19.1%
    PA: 8.6%
    WI: 18.1%

    Young men or young women? Enormous difference.
    Enormous? Really?
    Politically. Young US males are tending Trump, young US women are not. If it's young women we can infer it's abortion related (yes I know: reductive), if young men it's the opposite. In a tight race it counts.

    (Narrator: Viewcode is Britsplaining American politics to an American. Viewcode is stupid.)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,548
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another early voting metric,

    Holy shit. As early voting comes to a close, young voters are continuing to WILDLY outperform our EV benchmarks.

    US: +40%
    AZ: +3%
    GA: +60%
    MI: + 255%
    NC: +61%
    PA: +117%
    WI: +4%

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853154726415610284

    Actual percentages of young registered voters who've voted so far:

    AZ: 18%
    GA: 28.2%
    MI: 15.4%
    NC: 32.1%
    NV: 19.1%
    PA: 8.6%
    WI: 18.1%

    Young men or young women? Enormous difference.
    Enormous? Really?
    Politically. Young US males are tending Trump, young US women are not. If it's young women we can infer it's abortion related (yes I know: reductive), if young men it's the opposite. In a tight race it counts.

    (Narrator: Viewcode is Britsplaining American politics to an American. Viewcode is stupid.)
    Is "t[r]ending Trump" same thing as him actually winning young males - actual 2024 voters that is?

    Guess we're gonna find out this later this week! In the meantime, color me skeptical.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,167
    Which is most likely to be won by Harris out of Nevada and Arizona?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    edited November 4

    MikeL said:

    Ralston just updated.

    Registered Rep lead 43k (4.0%)

    Rep 37.7
    Dem 33.7
    Ind 28.6

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

    Registered Republicans =/= votes for Trump

    *Haley voters wave*

    Ind =/= 50:50 for Trump
    Also, AIUI, Ind=/= independent but rather unaffiliated, i.e. did not express a party affiliation and so were defaulted automatically by the system to Ind
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,167
    viewcode said:

    DougSeal said:

    TimT said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @viewcode

    From the NYTimes polling in Nevada:

    "The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."

    @rcs1000

    It's not enough.

    According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829

    If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.

    The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.

    If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730

    Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
    Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?

    The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
    I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
    I never figured out "Dutch Salute"
    You aren’t the only one. Dutch Salute, Guess Boris’ Weight, and Viewcode’s Betting Shop Lament are three PB wonders that I fear will ever elude me.
    • "Dutch Salute": theory posited by @MoonRabbit for the 2024 UK GE that voters would alternate between Labour and LibDems, creating a sine-wave effect. Since a sine wave looks like boobs, it was called a "Dutch Salute" due to (presumably) Dutch people doing this. Found to be true.
    • "Snorkelling": theory posited by @MoonRabbit for the 2024 US POTUS that voters would lie to the pollsters, esp older women over burdened by their husbands, but express their true allegiance in the polling booth. Plausible but as yet unproven
    • "Guess Boris’ Weight": following Johnson's ascension to the Premiership, he put on weight as most do. His fans said (part-seriously, part-tongue-in-cheek) that it was all muscle. and it became a meme.
    • "EICIPM": Acronym for "Ed Is Crap Is PM", describing the phenomenon that Ed Miliband was derided but ahead in the polls. It turned out the pools were very wrong but the derision was accurate.
    • "Viewcode's Betting Shop Lament": a reference to an article written by Viewcode which noted the disparity in odds proferred in physical shops vs those online and mourned the lack of politically-aware bookmakers that resulted. In terms of comments it is by far the most popular article I've written, despite the fact it required no research other than memory :(
    • "Cyclefree Limit"/"Viewcode Limit"/"Ydoethur Limit". 1200, 1500 and 1800 word-long articles, named after the people who hit them first, each superseding the other
    • "Golden Rule": the theory posited by @OGH that the worst poll for Labour was the correct won. Was true until it wasn't.
    • "OGH": "Our Genial Host", the code for Mike Smithson, the founder of PB, now sadly retired.
    • "Nick's Threesome": the convention that any reference to the number three must be accompanied by a reference to [redacted], a PBer who once had...well, you can work it out
    • "Gross approval": rule of thumb by @OGH that the gross approval figures are the best predictor of an election
    • "Net approval": rule of thumb by @isam that the net approval figures are the best predictor of an election
    • "Pineapple of Pizza/Radiohead". PB Sibboleths. It is very important to have the correct opinion, which I have sadly forgotten
    • "Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority" An 2007 article of such awfulness that the universe refuses to admit of its existence.


    There always used to be two "golds" with PB. One was the one you've mentioned, the Golden Rule, the other was the Gold Standard polling company, which for a long time was Angus Reid. Now they don't even poll in the UK as far as I know, although they still operate in Canada.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Univision YouGov poll of Latinos and Puert Ricans in Pennsylvania -

    Latinos voting 64 Harris - 30 Trump

    Puerto Ricans voting 67 Harris - 27 Trump

    Trump holding only 82% of his 2020 voters (Dems holding 89%).

    There's maybe 150,000 Puerto Ricans in Philadelphia alone.

    Trump is really in trouble if he thinks Latinos are going to flock to him this time.


    Also, note the Peurto Rican populations in Florida:

    Orlando 41k, Jacksonville 33k, Poinciana 27k, Tampa 26k, Kissimee 25k, Deltona 23k, Alafaya 18k, St Cloud 17k...

    Trump won Florida in 2020 by just 330,000 votes.

    That joke isn't funny any more.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Andy_JS said:

    Which is most likely to be won by Harris out of Nevada and Arizona?

    The polling seems to suggest a more solid Trump lead in Arizona.

    Nevada has gone Democrat every election since 2008. It has teased Republicans, shown them some leg - then gone home with a Democrat...

    So Arizona most likely Trump, Nevada the most likely of the two for Harris.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    viewcode said:

    My current thoughts
    The presumption is that due to the polls being crap we have to build a book for to cover a big Dem win, a narrow Dem win, a narrow Trump win, and a Big Trump win. That;s not possible so all options have risk. My current thoughts are

    LOW RISK: MINNESOTA, VIRGINIA. 1/14 and 1/8 Kamela to win
    Very much the bankers and will hopefully survive a Trumpnacht. Will bet 5X each

    MEDIUM RISK: NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1/8 Kamela to win
    Uniformly ahead but one firm Praecones Analytica insists Trump will win, citing abortion and trans sports. Might be right, might not. Will bet 2X

    HIGHEST RISK: GEORGIA, IOWA: 13/8, 5/2 Kamela to win
    @RCS1000 says Georgia will go Kamela, Selzer says Iowa will go Kamela. Will bet 1X each

    AS YET UNDECIDED: NEVADA: 4/6 Trump to win
    Give me a day or two to think on it. 1X

    That's 15X. Still have another 5X to go

    Georgia looks a lot more likely than Iowa, I think ?
    Or at least there's a lot more evidence out there on it.

  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    Interesting analysis and predictions for the US Presidential. Worth a read:

    https://x.com/malcontentmentt/status/1853241846878945739?s=61
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another early voting metric,

    Holy shit. As early voting comes to a close, young voters are continuing to WILDLY outperform our EV benchmarks.

    US: +40%
    AZ: +3%
    GA: +60%
    MI: + 255%
    NC: +61%
    PA: +117%
    WI: +4%

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853154726415610284

    Actual percentages of young registered voters who've voted so far:

    AZ: 18%
    GA: 28.2%
    MI: 15.4%
    NC: 32.1%
    NV: 19.1%
    PA: 8.6%
    WI: 18.1%

    Young men or young women? Enormous difference.
    Enormous? Really?
    Politically. Young US males are tending Trump, young US women are not. If it's young women we can infer it's abortion related (yes I know: reductive), if young men it's the opposite. In a tight race it counts.

    (Narrator: Viewcode is Britsplaining American politics to an American. Viewcode is stupid.)
    In any event, it's not either/or. Both will be turning out; I just seen the relative proportions.
    Though the rest of the turnout data suggests more women's than men.

    The more interesting thing to me was the almost unchanged AZ data.
    Goes along with the other suggestions that it's one of Trump's most likely wins in the sunbelt.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Does Musk learn from his mistakes this time around and just give up on politics - or does he use it as experience to get better at buying future ejections ?

    Elon Musk PAC has FIRED all the door-knockers it tricked and trapped into working for them in Michigan in back of U-Haul cargo vans

    Wired magazine first broke story - and now everyone’s been fired for speaking up

    And some were not paid until Wired looked into it

    https://x.com/TristanSnell/status/1853124767777202573
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    Nigelb said:

    Another early voting metric,

    Holy shit. As early voting comes to a close, young voters are continuing to WILDLY outperform our EV benchmarks.

    US: +40%
    AZ: +3%
    GA: +60%
    MI: + 255%
    NC: +61%
    PA: +117%
    WI: +4%

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853154726415610284

    Actual percentages of young registered voters who've voted so far:

    AZ: 18%
    GA: 28.2%
    MI: 15.4%
    NC: 32.1%
    NV: 19.1%
    PA: 8.6%
    WI: 18.1%

    There’s going to be a really dull journalist cliche that it was Swifties who won the election…
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    DougSeal said:

    TimT said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @viewcode

    From the NYTimes polling in Nevada:

    "The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."

    @rcs1000

    It's not enough.

    According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829

    If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.

    The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.

    If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730

    Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
    Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?

    The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
    I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
    I never figured out "Dutch Salute"
    You aren’t the only one. Dutch Salute, Guess Boris’ Weight, and Viewcode’s Betting Shop Lament are three PB wonders that I fear will ever elude me.
    • "Dutch Salute": theory posited by @MoonRabbit for the 2024 UK GE that voters would alternate between Labour and LibDems, creating a sine-wave effect. Since a sine wave looks like boobs, it was called a "Dutch Salute" due to (presumably) Dutch people doing this. Found to be true.
    • "Snorkelling": theory posited by @MoonRabbit for the 2024 US POTUS that voters would lie to the pollsters, esp older women over burdened by their husbands, but express their true allegiance in the polling booth. Plausible but as yet unproven
    • "Guess Boris’ Weight": following Johnson's ascension to the Premiership, he put on weight as most do. His fans said (part-seriously, part-tongue-in-cheek) that it was all muscle. and it became a meme.
    • "EICIPM": Acronym for "Ed Is Crap Is PM", describing the phenomenon that Ed Miliband was derided but ahead in the polls. It turned out the pools were very wrong but the derision was accurate.
    • "Viewcode's Betting Shop Lament": a reference to an article written by Viewcode which noted the disparity in odds proferred in physical shops vs those online and mourned the lack of politically-aware bookmakers that resulted. In terms of comments it is by far the most popular article I've written, despite the fact it required no research other than memory :(
    • "Cyclefree Limit"/"Viewcode Limit"/"Ydoethur Limit". 1200, 1500 and 1800 word-long articles, named after the people who hit them first, each superseding the other
    • "Golden Rule": the theory posited by @OGH that the worst poll for Labour was the correct won. Was true until it wasn't.
    • "OGH": "Our Genial Host", the code for Mike Smithson, the founder of PB, now sadly retired.
    • "Nick's Threesome": the convention that any reference to the number three must be accompanied by a reference to [redacted], a PBer who once had...well, you can work it out
    • "Gross approval": rule of thumb by @OGH that the gross approval figures are the best predictor of an election
    • "Net approval": rule of thumb by @isam that the net approval figures are the best predictor of an election
    • "Pineapple of Pizza/Radiohead". PB Sibboleths. It is very important to have the correct opinion, which I have sadly forgotten
    • "Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority" An 2007 article of such awfulness that the universe refuses to admit of its existence.

    There always used to be two "golds" with
    PB. One was the one you've mentioned, the
    Golden Rule, the other was the Gold
    Standard polling company, which for a long
    time was Angus Reid. Now they don't even
    poll in the UK as far as I know, although
    they still operate in Canada.
    It was ICM that was the Gold Standard

    Calling Angus Reid that was mockery

  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    edited November 4
    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.

    Selzer vs 2020 exit poll crosstabs.

    Senior Women: D+35/D+6
    Senior Men: R+2/R+32
    Indies: D+7/D+4
    Women: D+20/D+3
    Men: R+14/R+19
    Rurals: R+20/R+28
    Suburbs: D+23/R+3
    No College: R+12/R+17
    College: D+30/D+7

    Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.

    Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well :* Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

    Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.

    Good to see you back.
    He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
    Your not averse to dishing it out though yourself so get a grip and stop playing the victim. Your response to Leon was verging on the hysterical. I remember your baiting of @isam back in May just before he left the site. Even accusing him of having a thin skin. No irony there of course.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    .
    geoffw said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Unbelievably bad judgement from Starmer.

    "Starmer refuses to take whip from Labour MP who shared ‘white supremacy’ post about Badenoch
    Pressure had grown on PM over ‘race-baiting’ retweet by Dawn Butler that targeted new Tory leader"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/03/starmer-urged-discipline-dawn-butler-race-baiting-post-kemi/

    So we can assume that Ms Butler's effusions represent a strand of Labour opinion

    I’m surprised at Starmers poor judgement here as Rupa Huw was suspended for a similar comment about Kwasi Kwarteng. If anything her comment was not as bad as Butlers.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-64835061
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357

    Nigelb said:

    Another early voting metric,

    Holy shit. As early voting comes to a close, young voters are continuing to WILDLY outperform our EV benchmarks.

    US: +40%
    AZ: +3%
    GA: +60%
    MI: + 255%
    NC: +61%
    PA: +117%
    WI: +4%

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853154726415610284

    Actual percentages of young registered voters who've voted so far:

    AZ: 18%
    GA: 28.2%
    MI: 15.4%
    NC: 32.1%
    NV: 19.1%
    PA: 8.6%
    WI: 18.1%

    There’s going to be a really dull journalist cliche that it was Swifties who won the election…
    I'd happily suffer 4 years of that.

    Of course, it might just be a really dull journalist cliche that it was a "comic" who lost the election.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Nigelb said:

    Does Musk learn from his mistakes this time around and just give up on politics - or does he use it as experience to get better at buying future ejections ?

    Elon Musk PAC has FIRED all the door-knockers it tricked and trapped into working for them in Michigan in back of U-Haul cargo vans

    Wired magazine first broke story - and now everyone’s been fired for speaking up

    And some were not paid until Wired looked into it

    https://x.com/TristanSnell/status/1853124767777202573

    This is what Musky Baby really means by 'government efficiency' : getting rid of the few rules, checks and balances that stop rich asshats such as himself from doing this sort of thing.

    And it's why he should be let nowhere near any government department.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    TimT said:

    Interesting analysis and predictions for the US Presidential. Worth a read:

    https://x.com/malcontentmentt/status/1853241846878945739?s=61

    Well worth a read. A deep dive with great insights.

    I especially like his take on Florida...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,924

    Andy_JS said:

    Which is most likely to be won by Harris out of Nevada and Arizona?

    The polling seems to suggest a more solid Trump lead in Arizona.

    Nevada has gone Democrat every election since 2008. It has teased Republicans, shown them some leg - then gone home with a Democrat...

    So Arizona most likely Trump, Nevada the most likely of the two for Harris.
    All the mood music seems to suggest that Trump is doing pretty well in both.

    If you look at gender splits, male voters outnumber female in Nevada (which is very positive for the Republicans), while in Arizona, while women are ahead, the gap is very small.

    Now: I will add a caveat to that. In Arizona, the Republicans do not have a sane Senatorial candidate that gets on the shelf voters to the polls. In 2016, I am pretty sure that Trump was elected on Ron Johnson's coattails in Wisconsin for example. If there hadn't been a Senate election that day, I doubt Trump would have won.

    Plus, in Arizona there's an abortion access ballot proposition that seeks to overturn the (moderately but not crazy excessively) strict abortion limits set by the Republican State government.

    For those reasons, I think Arizona could be a surprise. Trump favourite, to be sure, but a 60:40 favorite, not a 75:25 one.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Which is most likely to be won by Harris out of Nevada and Arizona?

    The polling seems to suggest a more solid Trump lead in Arizona.

    Nevada has gone Democrat every election since 2008. It has teased Republicans, shown them some leg - then gone home with a Democrat...

    So Arizona most likely Trump, Nevada the most likely of the two for Harris.
    All the mood music seems to suggest that Trump is doing pretty well in both.

    If you look at gender splits, male voters outnumber female in Nevada (which is very positive for the Republicans), while in Arizona, while women are ahead, the gap is very small.

    Now: I will add a caveat to that. In Arizona, the Republicans do not have a sane Senatorial candidate that gets on the shelf voters to the polls. In 2016, I am pretty sure that Trump was elected on Ron Johnson's coattails in Wisconsin for example. If there hadn't been a Senate election that day, I doubt Trump would have won.

    Plus, in Arizona there's an abortion access ballot proposition that seeks to overturn the (moderately but not crazy excessively) strict abortion limits set by the Republican State government.

    For those reasons, I think Arizona could be a surprise. Trump favourite, to be sure, but a 60:40 favorite, not a 75:25 one.
    This is really why I’m very wary of betting on state by state. So many other variables that can have an impact. So far I’ve limited myself to betting on Harris to win as I think the trend is in her favour. Especially after the Puerto Rico gaffe.

    I thought @viewcode put up an interesting post on his thoughts on state betting. But I’m not tempted.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    lots of noise from Ryanair cutting flights from the U.K. over the modest changes to APD in the budget. Meanwhile Ryanair is struggling due to ongoing issues with Boeing. Not related to cutting flights and passenger numbers of course.

    https://x.com/skynews/status/1853319483626008818?s=61
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    edited November 4

    Andy_JS said:

    Which is most likely to be won by Harris out of Nevada and Arizona?

    The polling seems to suggest a more solid Trump lead in Arizona.

    Nevada has gone Democrat every election since 2008. It has teased Republicans, shown them some leg - then gone home with a Democrat...

    So Arizona most likely Trump, Nevada the most likely of the two for Harris.
    I think the Selzer poll does put a big question mark over a lot of the judgments based on "consensus polling". Even if it's what we would normally call an outlier (i.e. a one-in-twenty type of aberration), it is still so far from the consensus view that there must be a serious systematic error either (1) in it, or (2) in the polls in general, or (3) in both. Given Selzer's track record, it's difficult to believe (1) is the whole answer.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062
    Nigelb said:

    Does Musk learn from his mistakes this time around and just give up on politics - or does he use it as experience to get better at buying future ejections ?

    Elon Musk PAC has FIRED all the door-knockers it tricked and trapped into working for them in Michigan in back of U-Haul cargo vans

    Wired magazine first broke story - and now everyone’s been fired for speaking up

    And some were not paid until Wired looked into it

    https://x.com/TristanSnell/status/1853124767777202573

    Musk seems to be on increasingly thin ice. If Trump loses, a lot of people will want to come after him. The South African grifter may find he has few friends and his financial backers have already taken a punishment beating with TwiX and Tesla...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    edited November 4
    Cicero said:

    Nigelb said:

    Does Musk learn from his mistakes this time around and just give up on politics - or does he use it as experience to get better at buying future ejections ?

    Elon Musk PAC has FIRED all the door-knockers it tricked and trapped into working for them in Michigan in back of U-Haul cargo vans

    Wired magazine first broke story - and now everyone’s been fired for speaking up

    And some were not paid until Wired looked into it

    https://x.com/TristanSnell/status/1853124767777202573

    Musk seems to be on increasingly thin ice. If Trump loses, a lot of people will want to come after him. The South African grifter may find he has few friends and his financial backers have already taken a punishment beating with TwiX and Tesla...
    The Tesla share rampers appear to have quietened down somewhat over on Twix; but that may be because they've been redeployed to pro-Trump shilling. But Tesla's share price is now where it first reached in December 2020. It has been up (and down...) in that time, but the idea that Tesla shares are a massive money-earner over the medium or long term is false.

    Compare with 'old' and unsexy shares such as MS. In December 2020, MS shares were at 222 dollars. Now they're at 416. Or IBM: 118 dollars in December 2020; now 208.

    Tesla's share price is a lot more erratic than the price of those two, perhaps because of Musk's constant ramping of innovation that does not happen. But those two have outperformed in the long run.

    Edit: or Oracle: from 60 to 170 in the same time frame.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    edited November 4
    Chris said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Which is most likely to be won by Harris out of Nevada and Arizona?

    The polling seems to suggest a more solid Trump lead in Arizona.

    Nevada has gone Democrat every election since 2008. It has teased Republicans, shown them some leg - then gone home with a Democrat...

    So Arizona most likely Trump, Nevada the most likely of the two for Harris.
    I think the Selzer poll does put a big question mark over a lot of the judgments based on "consensus polling". Even if it's what we would normally call an outlier (i.e. a one-in-twenty type of aberration), it is still so far from the consensus view that there must be a serious systematic error either (1) in it, or (2) in the polls in general, or (3) in both. Given Selzer's track record, it's difficult to believe (1) is the whole answer.
    That's my take.

    Even more so as people who know their stuff have for a while been pointing out the problem with the non-Selzer polling - on how they past weight and so who they exclude from their samples.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    edited November 4
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Which is most likely to be won by Harris out of Nevada and Arizona?

    The polling seems to suggest a more solid Trump lead in Arizona.

    Nevada has gone Democrat every election since 2008. It has teased Republicans, shown them some leg - then gone home with a Democrat...

    So Arizona most likely Trump, Nevada the most likely of the two for Harris.
    If you look at gender splits, male voters outnumber female in Nevada (which is very positive for the Republicans), while in Arizona, while women are ahead, the gap is very small.
    NBC Early Vote site has gender splits:

    Nevada: Women 44, Men 44, Unknown 12

    (Based on NV early vote of 1,086k; Ralston last update was 1,077k)

    Arizona: Women 48, Men 43, Unknown 9

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Taz said:



    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.

    Selzer vs 2020 exit poll crosstabs.

    Senior Women: D+35/D+6
    Senior Men: R+2/R+32
    Indies: D+7/D+4
    Women: D+20/D+3
    Men: R+14/R+19
    Rurals: R+20/R+28
    Suburbs: D+23/R+3
    No College: R+12/R+17
    College: D+30/D+7

    Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.

    Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well :* Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

    Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.

    Good to see you back.
    He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
    Your not averse to dishing it out though yourself so get a grip and stop playing the victim. Your response to Leon was verging on the hysterical. I remember your baiting of @isam back in May just before he left the site. Even accusing him of having a thin skin. No irony there of course.
    I am fully aware I am a terrible human being. I said I took "time out" not that I am a victim. Look, I know @Taz and @leon and many others think I am a stain on the boxers of humanity and they're probably right. The difference between me and @Leon is that I know it and that's why I took time away.

    You are right to think I am scum. I am. I am a despicable human being. Don't worry, I hate myself as much as you hate me.,
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1853236967506604136

    General election poll - Iowa

    🔴 Trump 52% (+8)
    🔵 Harris 44%

    Socal - 435 LV - 11/3

    Counterpoint -


  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    MikeL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Which is most likely to be won by Harris out of Nevada and Arizona?

    The polling seems to suggest a more solid Trump lead in Arizona.

    Nevada has gone Democrat every election since 2008. It has teased Republicans, shown them some leg - then gone home with a Democrat...

    So Arizona most likely Trump, Nevada the most likely of the two for Harris.
    If you look at gender splits, male voters outnumber female in Nevada (which is very positive for the Republicans), while in Arizona, while women are ahead, the gap is very small.
    NBC Early Vote site has gender splits:

    Nevada: Women 44, Men 44, Unknown 12

    (Based on NV early vote of 1,086k; Ralston last update was 1,077k)

    Arizona: Women 48, Men 43, Unknown 9

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote
    Sorry if it's an obvious question, but is it known whether the polling data are generally consistent with the gender splits that have been seen in early voting?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    A day after the Selzer poll, SoCal Strategies, at the behest of Red Eagle Politics, publishes an Iowa poll with a sample obtained and processed in less than 24 hours. It goes straight into the 538 average thing -

    https://substack.com/home/post/p-151135765
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Moldova count 99.9% complete.

    Sandu actually lost amongst those living in Moldova by 49:51.

    But she won Expats by 83:17 (and they are 20% of the vote).

    Giving Sandu an overall win by 55:45.

    https://pv.cec.md/cec-presidential-results-tour2.html
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    DougSeal said:

    Taz said:



    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.

    Selzer vs 2020 exit poll crosstabs.

    Senior Women: D+35/D+6
    Senior Men: R+2/R+32
    Indies: D+7/D+4
    Women: D+20/D+3
    Men: R+14/R+19
    Rurals: R+20/R+28
    Suburbs: D+23/R+3
    No College: R+12/R+17
    College: D+30/D+7

    Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.

    Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well :* Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

    Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.

    Good to see you back.
    He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
    Your not averse to dishing it out though yourself so get a grip and stop playing the victim. Your response to Leon was verging on the hysterical. I remember your baiting of @isam back in May just before he left the site. Even accusing him of having a thin skin. No irony there of course.
    I am fully aware I am a terrible human being. I said I took "time out" not that I am a victim. Look, I know @Taz and @leon and many others think I am a stain on the boxers of humanity and they're probably right. The difference between me and @Leon is that I know it and that's why I took time away.

    You are right to think I am scum. I am. I am a despicable human being. Don't worry, I hate myself as much as you hate me.,
    I don’t hate you. I don’t think you’re scum. I just think you’re a hypocrite happy to dish it out and not take it. You were extremely rude to me for no good reason when I made a comment about labour laws. I don’t know why. It was the same with Isam in May.

    As for your final sentence, if you are serious, please please please seek some help and some reassurance. No one is a completely bad person. No one. There is help out there. Life is short, precious and important.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Chris said:

    MikeL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Which is most likely to be won by Harris out of Nevada and Arizona?

    The polling seems to suggest a more solid Trump lead in Arizona.

    Nevada has gone Democrat every election since 2008. It has teased Republicans, shown them some leg - then gone home with a Democrat...

    So Arizona most likely Trump, Nevada the most likely of the two for Harris.
    If you look at gender splits, male voters outnumber female in Nevada (which is very positive for the Republicans), while in Arizona, while women are ahead, the gap is very small.
    NBC Early Vote site has gender splits:

    Nevada: Women 44, Men 44, Unknown 12

    (Based on NV early vote of 1,086k; Ralston last update was 1,077k)

    Arizona: Women 48, Men 43, Unknown 9

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote
    Sorry if it's an obvious question, but is it known whether the polling data are generally consistent with the gender splits that have been seen in early voting?
    No, I don't think it is - that's the whole point.

    Most polls (but not Selzer) weight back to the 2020 actual voting demographic.

    Whereas 2024 early vote shows a far higher share of women:

    USA Total Early Vote = 76.2m

    Gender split: Women 53, Men 44, Unknown 3
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    On the news this morning. Labour has a plan to stop the boats. A novel approach. Not been tried before. Here we go again.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    Of course, it might just be a really dull journalist cliche that it was a "comic" who lost the election.

    If he did cost Trump the win, it's the funniest thing he ever did...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    So we finally get to discover which dystopian episode of Black Mirror (etc) this week. What a slog!

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    Another Sinn Fein councillor in trouble: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz0m1vyxpz7o
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Taz said:



    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.

    Selzer vs 2020 exit poll crosstabs.

    Senior Women: D+35/D+6
    Senior Men: R+2/R+32
    Indies: D+7/D+4
    Women: D+20/D+3
    Men: R+14/R+19
    Rurals: R+20/R+28
    Suburbs: D+23/R+3
    No College: R+12/R+17
    College: D+30/D+7

    Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.

    Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well :* Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

    Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.

    Good to see you back.
    He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
    Your not averse to dishing it out though yourself so get a grip and stop playing the victim. Your response to Leon was verging on the hysterical. I remember your baiting of @isam back in May just before he left the site. Even accusing him of having a thin skin. No irony there of course.
    Both Leon and iSam could dish it out to other posters, and both caused other posters to leave this site.

    I'd welcome iSam back, for a number of reasons. Leon... less so. But fortunately I don't have any say on it. :)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1853236967506604136

    General election poll - Iowa

    🔴 Trump 52% (+8)
    🔵 Harris 44%

    Socal - 435 LV - 11/3

    Sample size of 435. And the much discussed Selzer poll is not that much better, with a sample size of 808.

    The sample sizes of many US polls are embarrassingly small.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1853236967506604136

    General election poll - Iowa

    🔴 Trump 52% (+8)
    🔵 Harris 44%

    Socal - 435 LV - 11/3

    Sample size of 435. And the much discussed Selzer poll is not that much better, with a sample size of 808.

    The sample sizes of many US polls are embarrassingly small.
    Do they poll until they get the result they want, then stop? ;)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Taz said:

    On the news this morning. Labour has a plan to stop the boats. A novel approach. Not been tried before. Here we go again.

    We will stop the boats by helicoptering in anyone who wants to come over from France. Hence: no boats. Job jobbed. ;)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1853236967506604136

    General election poll - Iowa

    🔴 Trump 52% (+8)
    🔵 Harris 44%

    Socal - 435 LV - 11/3

    Sample size of 435. And the much discussed Selzer poll is not that much better, with a sample size of 808.

    The sample sizes of many US polls are embarrassingly small.
    There’s going to be an awful lot of American pollsters with egg on their faces in 48 hours’ time.

    One must wonder how these companies ever find any customers for their regular research projects, given their high-profile political polling has been terrible for years, or perhaps the amount of money in US politics means that partisan political polling is now their main business?
  • TimT said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @viewcode

    From the NYTimes polling in Nevada:

    "The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."

    @rcs1000

    It's not enough.

    According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829

    If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.

    The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.

    If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730

    Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
    Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?

    The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
    I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
    I’m thinking if moderate Republicans, who hate Trump and MAGA, have been quietly waiting for a moment to finish both off, then this is it. In politics you only make the move when it is the right moment - and this week is definitely that moment they have been waiting for.

    So registered GOP to Dem switchers might like to go about this business discretely and unseen, so they are “snorkelling” - placing apparatus over our eyes, so we can’t clearly see what’s going on, and only know what they are up to when we “taste” the votes coming in.
    Trump/Kam canvasser knocks on door or pollster contacts them - they won’t tell anyone how they voted or intend to vote, they don’t want it seeping out…
    “have you voted, can you tell me who for?”
    “Yes. We have both voted already/will vote for Donald Trump.”

    Sea Shanty, who I always read and respect, says be careful about dissing Ralston, but at same time how does Ralston explain latest polling giving Kam comfortable win in the state. If a lot of Snorkelling is going on, it’s out of sight, impossible for Ralston or anyone to detect it as it’s based on a large group of voters with a secret ballot lying in public.

    If there are Reps across the country following clear lead of Chaney & Bush, but discreetly, how would any pundit, pollster, early vote registration counter or canvasser know? They can’t. It’s happening invisibly. An army will have put an end to Trump and MAGA, but you will never see them or know who they were. All the media, both campaigns, political bettors, will never see it coming.

    But the first rule of politics is, you never make your move until the right moment.
    I could of not put it better myself. A*.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1853236967506604136

    General election poll - Iowa

    🔴 Trump 52% (+8)
    🔵 Harris 44%

    Socal - 435 LV - 11/3

    Sample size of 435. And the much discussed Selzer poll is not that much better, with a sample size of 808.

    The sample sizes of many US polls are embarrassingly small.
    There’s going to be an awful lot of American pollsters with egg on their faces in 48 hours’ time.

    One must wonder how these companies ever find any customers for their regular research projects, given their high-profile political polling has been terrible for years, or perhaps the amount of money in US politics means that partisan political polling is now their main business?
    Many of these 'pollsters' probably get paid very well to get the results their clients want. I see no reason to believe, or trust, many of them.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    Dopermean said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @viewcode

    From the NYTimes polling in Nevada:

    "The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."

    @rcs1000

    It's not enough.

    According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829

    If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.

    The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.

    If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730

    Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
    Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?

    The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
    I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
    I’m thinking if moderate Republicans, who hate Trump and MAGA, have been quietly waiting for a moment to finish both off, then this is it. In politics you only make the move when it is the right moment - and this week is definitely that moment they have been waiting for.

    So registered GOP to Dem switchers might like to go about this business discretely and unseen, so they are “snorkelling” - placing apparatus over our eyes, so we can’t clearly see what’s going on, and only know what they are up to when we “taste” the votes coming in.
    Trump/Kam canvasser knocks on door or pollster contacts them - they won’t tell anyone how they voted or intend to vote, they don’t want it seeping out…
    “have you voted, can you tell me who for?”
    “Yes. We have both voted already/will vote for Donald Trump.”

    Sea Shanty, who I always read and respect, says be careful about dissing Ralston, but at same time how does Ralston explain latest polling giving Kam comfortable win in the state. If a lot of Snorkelling is going on, it’s out of sight, impossible for Ralston or anyone to detect it as it’s based on a large group of voters with a secret ballot lying in public.

    If there are Reps across the country following clear lead of Chaney & Bush, but discreetly, how would any pundit, pollster, early vote registration counter or canvasser know? They can’t. It’s happening invisibly. An army will have put an end to Trump and MAGA, but you will never see them or know who they were. All the media, both campaigns, political bettors, will never see it coming.

    But the first rule of politics is, you never make your move until the right moment.
    Thanks for the full explanation. Of course, almost the entire Neocon establishment has come out as virulently anti-Trump on constitutional and national security issues. That part - the 200 former Trump appointees etc… - is certainly not snorkeling. But, I figure there are a lot of GOP housewives in MAGA households who do worry about their daughters and the abortion issue. And the MAGA milieu can be quite threatening if you live in a ruby red area where everyone has flags and guns. So that’s on of the two reasons I believe the pollster are systematically off. The other is that they are measuring the wrong electorate.
    PS. There is a very lively debate in the political class on how, precisely, the Haley voters are going to vote in the general. That is a significant chunk of the GOP and could have a huge impact. It would also be understandable, if such people have ambitions within the party post Trump, that they would not want a 2024 defection to be widely known.
    Presumably Haley supporters would rather Harris wins and Haley gets the GOP nomination next time. If Trump wins then another MAGA candidate will be groomed to succeed him, assuming Trump doesn't try to change the rules and run again.
    Haley ultimately, perhaps reluctantly, endorsed Trump. I don’t think most voters are that calculating, so they aren’t thinking about 2028, they’re just thinking Trump or Harris.
  • Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1853236967506604136

    General election poll - Iowa

    🔴 Trump 52% (+8)
    🔵 Harris 44%

    Socal - 435 LV - 11/3

    Sample size of 435. And the much discussed Selzer poll is not that much better, with a sample size of 808.

    The sample sizes of many US polls are embarrassingly small.
    There’s going to be an awful lot of American pollsters with egg on their faces in 48 hours’ time.

    One must wonder how these companies ever find any customers for their regular research projects, given their high-profile political polling has been terrible for years, or perhaps the amount of money in US politics means that partisan political polling is now their main business?
    Many of these 'pollsters' probably get paid very well to get the results their clients want. I see no reason to believe, or trust, many of them.
    Absolutely correct.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    @RoryStewartUK

    Kamala Harris will win comfortably, because:
    • Biden’s admin has been solid
    • Trump’s lost ground since 2016
    • The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22
    • Young women like Kamala + vote
    Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses

    https://x.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1853325635747266782
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1853236967506604136

    General election poll - Iowa

    🔴 Trump 52% (+8)
    🔵 Harris 44%

    Socal - 435 LV - 11/3

    Sample size of 435. And the much discussed Selzer poll is not that much better, with a sample size of 808.

    The sample sizes of many US polls are embarrassingly small.
    Well, Selzer is 36% better (square root of 808/435) just looking at sample size.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Relying upon “snorkelling” Republicans for Harris is a very thin straw to be clutching.
  • https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1853236967506604136

    General election poll - Iowa

    🔴 Trump 52% (+8)
    🔵 Harris 44%

    Socal - 435 LV - 11/3

    Sample size of 435. And the much discussed Selzer poll is not that much better, with a sample size of 808.

    The sample sizes of many US polls are embarrassingly small.
    Do they poll until they get the result they want, then stop? ;)
    I watch youtubers who drag race cars on the strip. Many of them cannot win the race. So they try 10 or 11 times till they win! I see a connection with what you saying.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1853236967506604136

    General election poll - Iowa

    🔴 Trump 52% (+8)
    🔵 Harris 44%

    Socal - 435 LV - 11/3

    Sample size of 435. And the much discussed Selzer poll is not that much better, with a sample size of 808.

    The sample sizes of many US polls are embarrassingly small.
    Size isn't everything.

    It's the representativeness of a sample that matters, and the participation rate, including likelihood of voting.

    The textbook example of this was the Literary Digest poll of 1936. Two and a half million voters polled and 19% out from the true result.

    https://about.proquest.com/en/blog/2016/That-Time-the-Literary-Digest-Poll-Got-1936-Election-Wrong/
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    A Twitter thread on a large bot network tweeting support for Trump, now dismantled: https://x.com/elisethoma5/status/1853208626565206502
  • A Twitter thread on a large bot network tweeting support for Trump, now dismantled: https://x.com/elisethoma5/status/1853208626565206502

    Great!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    DougSeal said:

    Taz said:



    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.

    Selzer vs 2020 exit poll crosstabs.

    Senior Women: D+35/D+6
    Senior Men: R+2/R+32
    Indies: D+7/D+4
    Women: D+20/D+3
    Men: R+14/R+19
    Rurals: R+20/R+28
    Suburbs: D+23/R+3
    No College: R+12/R+17
    College: D+30/D+7

    Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.

    Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well :* Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

    Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.

    Good to see you back.
    He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
    Your not averse to dishing it out though yourself so get a grip and stop playing the victim. Your response to Leon was verging on the hysterical. I remember your baiting of @isam back in May just before he left the site. Even accusing him of having a thin skin. No irony there of course.
    I am fully aware I am a terrible human being. I said I took "time out" not that I am a victim. Look, I know @Taz and @leon and many others think I am a stain on the boxers of humanity and they're probably right. The difference between me and @Leon is that I know it and that's why I took time away.

    You are right to think I am scum. I am. I am a despicable human being. Don't worry, I hate myself as much as you hate me.,
    You are, however, a Great Seal.
  • https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1853236967506604136

    General election poll - Iowa

    🔴 Trump 52% (+8)
    🔵 Harris 44%

    Socal - 435 LV - 11/3

    Sample size of 435. And the much discussed Selzer poll is not that much better, with a sample size of 808.

    The sample sizes of many US polls are embarrassingly small.
    Do they poll until they get the result they want, then stop? ;)
    I watch youtubers who drag race cars on the strip. Many of them cannot win the race. So they try 10 or 11 times till they win! I see a connection with what you saying.
    That sounds right!
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 426
    MikeL said:

    Moldova count 99.9% complete.

    Sandu actually lost amongst those living in Moldova by 49:51.

    But she won Expats by 83:17 (and they are 20% of the vote).

    Giving Sandu an overall win by 55:45.

    https://pv.cec.md/cec-presidential-results-tour2.html

    That explains the attempts to disrupt overseas voting with bombscares at the polling stations.
    If Russia is prepared to spend $100m to subvert the Moldovan election, you have to wonder what they're spending elsewhere.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Taz said:

    On the news this morning. Labour has a plan to stop the boats. A novel approach. Not been tried before. Here we go again.

    Fill the Channel with great white sharks?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    Foxy said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1853236967506604136

    General election poll - Iowa

    🔴 Trump 52% (+8)
    🔵 Harris 44%

    Socal - 435 LV - 11/3

    Sample size of 435. And the much discussed Selzer poll is not that much better, with a sample size of 808.

    The sample sizes of many US polls are embarrassingly small.
    Size isn't everything.

    It's the representativeness of a sample that matters, and the participation rate, including likelihood of voting.

    The textbook example of this was the Literary Digest poll of 1936. Two and a half million voters polled and 19% out from the true result.

    https://about.proquest.com/en/blog/2016/That-Time-the-Literary-Digest-Poll-Got-1936-Election-Wrong/
    No but 435 is on the small side. And in the Selzer poll lots of discussion on here about how the subsamples of older women are breaking.
  • Taz said:

    On the news this morning. Labour has a plan to stop the boats. A novel approach. Not been tried before. Here we go again.

    Fill the Channel with great white sharks?
    Drain the channel.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062
    edited November 4
    Dopermean said:

    MikeL said:

    Moldova count 99.9% complete.

    Sandu actually lost amongst those living in Moldova by 49:51.

    But she won Expats by 83:17 (and they are 20% of the vote).

    Giving Sandu an overall win by 55:45.

    https://pv.cec.md/cec-presidential-results-tour2.html

    That explains the attempts to disrupt overseas voting with bombscares at the polling stations.
    If Russia is prepared to spend $100m to subvert the Moldovan election, you have to wonder what they're spending elsewhere.
    Have already spent... Not to mention the fake news, subversion, blackmail and bribery.

    £16 million for Brexit seems pretty discount...

    Always interesting to consider the Russian links of significant figures in certain quarters of the UK.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    Taz said:

    On the news this morning. Labour has a plan to stop the boats. A novel approach. Not been tried before. Here we go again.

    We will stop the boats by helicoptering in anyone who wants to come over from France. Hence: no boats. Job jobbed. ;)
    Given the relatively small numbers compared with legal migration, coupled with rapid processing at source, it would probably save money.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    MikeL said:

    Moldova count 99.9% complete.

    Sandu actually lost amongst those living in Moldova by 49:51.

    But she won Expats by 83:17 (and they are 20% of the vote).

    Giving Sandu an overall win by 55:45.

    https://pv.cec.md/cec-presidential-results-tour2.html

    Crazy, imo at least, that expats can decide how the country they have left is run, over turning the wishes of the people who want to stay.

    Ex-pats for more than a few years should have voting rights suspended until they return.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    TimT said:

    Interesting analysis and predictions for the US Presidential. Worth a read:

    https://x.com/malcontentmentt/status/1853241846878945739?s=61

    He's arguing that the national polls are under-sampling women, who are voting in larger numbers than men. And that Florida isn't as R safe as most assume. That Trump's closing week of the campaign has damaged him.

    Hopeful reasons why a reasonable Dem win remains a credible scenario. Or wishful thinking from someone trying to analyse their way to the result they (we) want, of course.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    The BBC was still running with 'neck and neck' this morning.

    It was left to its business report to highlight the potential significance of the Selzer poll.

    Which led me to wonder what percentage of Betfair US election betting is in the UK, and how much overseas ?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    On the news this morning. Labour has a plan to stop the boats. A novel approach. Not been tried before. Here we go again.

    We will stop the boats by helicoptering in anyone who wants to come over from France. Hence: no boats. Job jobbed. ;)
    Given the relatively small numbers compared with legal migration, coupled with rapid processing at source, it would probably save money.
    Until we paid the Calais authorities to build some heavy duty walls to stop the migrants, boats weren't a problem in the first place. We just displaced the journey into a far more dangerous and visceral one.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062

    MikeL said:

    Moldova count 99.9% complete.

    Sandu actually lost amongst those living in Moldova by 49:51.

    But she won Expats by 83:17 (and they are 20% of the vote).

    Giving Sandu an overall win by 55:45.

    https://pv.cec.md/cec-presidential-results-tour2.html

    Crazy, imo at least, that expats can decide how the country they have left is run, over turning the wishes of the people who want to stay.

    Ex-pats for more than a few years should have voting rights suspended until they return.
    Nonsense. Those who have left Moldova are sending huge sums back as remittances, indeed without them the economy would be in an even bigger mess.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Sean_F said:

    Relying upon “snorkelling” Republicans for Harris is a very thin straw to be clutching.

    Who's doing that ?
    If they exist, then they're the difference between a Harris win, and a bigger Harris win, most likely.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    Nigelb said:

    The BBC was still running with 'neck and neck' this morning.

    It was left to its business report to highlight the potential significance of the Selzer poll.

    Which led me to wonder what percentage of Betfair US election betting is in the UK, and how much overseas ?

    It will probably be mostly UK, certainly in terms of client numbers. But it doesnt really matter as it can't diverge too far from polymarket which is mostly US and the odd French billionaire.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162

    Taz said:



    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.

    Selzer vs 2020 exit poll crosstabs.

    Senior Women: D+35/D+6
    Senior Men: R+2/R+32
    Indies: D+7/D+4
    Women: D+20/D+3
    Men: R+14/R+19
    Rurals: R+20/R+28
    Suburbs: D+23/R+3
    No College: R+12/R+17
    College: D+30/D+7

    Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.

    Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well :* Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

    Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.

    Good to see you back.
    He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
    Your not averse to dishing it out though yourself so get a grip and stop playing the victim. Your response to Leon was verging on the hysterical. I remember your baiting of @isam back in May just before he left the site. Even accusing him of having a thin skin. No irony there of course.
    Both Leon and iSam could dish it out to other posters, and both caused other posters to leave this site.

    I'd welcome iSam back, for a number of reasons. Leon... less so. But fortunately I don't have any say on it. :)
    I think Leon crossed the line last week. A debate I never got into as I felt no good would come of it and I didn't agree with Leon and did not want to join what would feel like a pile on and others were already holding him to account more ably than I could.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162

    Taz said:

    On the news this morning. Labour has a plan to stop the boats. A novel approach. Not been tried before. Here we go again.

    Fill the Channel with great white sharks?
    A benefit of global warming, they could live in the warmer seas here.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    Cicero said:

    MikeL said:

    Moldova count 99.9% complete.

    Sandu actually lost amongst those living in Moldova by 49:51.

    But she won Expats by 83:17 (and they are 20% of the vote).

    Giving Sandu an overall win by 55:45.

    https://pv.cec.md/cec-presidential-results-tour2.html

    Crazy, imo at least, that expats can decide how the country they have left is run, over turning the wishes of the people who want to stay.

    Ex-pats for more than a few years should have voting rights suspended until they return.
    Nonsense. Those who have left Moldova are sending huge sums back as remittances, indeed without them the economy would be in an even bigger mess.
    I accept I am in the minority on this but don't really understand why.

    Another way of looking at it. If I moved to live in Switzerland, with an open ended contract and no intention to return, I would much rather be able to vote in Switzerland than the UK. And after a couple of years think myself more qualified to opine on the Swiss situation and future than the UK one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    These people are more than a little nuts, but I suspect the predictions of violence are probably exaggerated.

    ‘We are locked and loaded’: Trump fans in North Carolina ready for a ‘stolen election’

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/03/trump-supporters-election-results
    ...A recent survey by the Public Religion Research Institute recorded that one in four Republican Trump supporters believe that were Trump to lose the election, he should declare the results invalid and do “whatever it takes” to retake the White House. That’s a sobering finding, but a grossly understated one, judging from the mood at Trump’s Kinston rally.

    “People will riot if Trump doesn’t win,” said Cedric Perness, 38, an African American Trump supporter. He said it would be too dangerous for him to participate in any post-election unrest – “I’d get killed right there.”..
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162

    Taz said:

    On the news this morning. Labour has a plan to stop the boats. A novel approach. Not been tried before. Here we go again.

    We will stop the boats by helicoptering in anyone who wants to come over from France. Hence: no boats. Job jobbed. ;)
    For some obscure reason, whenever I hear someone say Stop the Boats, It goes in my mind to the tune of "Drop the Boy" by rock gods, Bros.
  • Nigelb said:

    Sean_F said:

    Relying upon “snorkelling” Republicans for Harris is a very thin straw to be clutching.

    Who's doing that ?
    If they exist, then they're the difference between a Harris win, and a bigger Harris win, most likely.
    I agree wholeheartedly.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Cicero said:

    MikeL said:

    Moldova count 99.9% complete.

    Sandu actually lost amongst those living in Moldova by 49:51.

    But she won Expats by 83:17 (and they are 20% of the vote).

    Giving Sandu an overall win by 55:45.

    https://pv.cec.md/cec-presidential-results-tour2.html

    Crazy, imo at least, that expats can decide how the country they have left is run, over turning the wishes of the people who want to stay.

    Ex-pats for more than a few years should have voting rights suspended until they return.
    Nonsense. Those who have left Moldova are sending huge sums back as remittances, indeed without them the economy would be in an even bigger mess.
    I accept I am in the minority on this but don't really understand why.

    Another way of looking at it. If I moved to live in Switzerland, with an open ended contract and no intention to return, I would much rather be able to vote in Switzerland than the UK. And after a couple of years think myself more qualified to opine on the Swiss situation and future than the UK one.
    But you wouldn’t be a Swiss citizen, and until you are a Swiss citizen you can only vote in the uk election.

    Now replace Swiss with the uk and the uk with Moldova - granted you don’t live in Moldova but you want what’s best for that country which is likely to be EU membership.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: what a lovely day.

    Mr. Jessop, surely the way to stop the boats is to unleash the kraken?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    Foxy said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1853236967506604136

    General election poll - Iowa

    🔴 Trump 52% (+8)
    🔵 Harris 44%

    Socal - 435 LV - 11/3

    Sample size of 435. And the much discussed Selzer poll is not that much better, with a sample size of 808.

    The sample sizes of many US polls are embarrassingly small.
    Size isn't everything.

    It's the representativeness of a sample that matters, and the participation rate, including likelihood of voting.

    The textbook example of this was the Literary Digest poll of 1936. Two and a half million voters polled and 19% out from the true result.

    https://about.proquest.com/en/blog/2016/That-Time-the-Literary-Digest-Poll-Got-1936-Election-Wrong/
    Yes, size is not everything - but representativeness is a sticking plaster used to try to remedy the great weakness in opinion polls - that the samples are not random.

    If you had a truly random sample, of sufficient size, you wouldn't need to weight the numbers at all.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    Cicero said:

    MikeL said:

    Moldova count 99.9% complete.

    Sandu actually lost amongst those living in Moldova by 49:51.

    But she won Expats by 83:17 (and they are 20% of the vote).

    Giving Sandu an overall win by 55:45.

    https://pv.cec.md/cec-presidential-results-tour2.html

    Crazy, imo at least, that expats can decide how the country they have left is run, over turning the wishes of the people who want to stay.

    Ex-pats for more than a few years should have voting rights suspended until they return.
    Nonsense. Those who have left Moldova are sending huge sums back as remittances, indeed without them the economy would be in an even bigger mess.
    I accept I am in the minority on this but don't really understand why.

    Another way of looking at it. If I moved to live in Switzerland, with an open ended contract and no intention to return, I would much rather be able to vote in Switzerland than the UK. And after a couple of years think myself more qualified to opine on the Swiss situation and future than the UK one.
    I think there’s a philosophical difference between countries for whom elections are, when alls said and done, about tax and public services, and those where it’s about constitution, identity and the long term future.

    Moldova is a small and poor country grappling with questions that are more about citizenship than domestic macroeconomics. Particularly its future accession to the EU, where so many Moldovans are working (notably Romania).

    I’d like Britain to have the system France does: elected MPs representing expat communities. Imagine being the Westminster MP for the Spanish costas, or the Dordogne.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    Scott_xP said:

    @RoryStewartUK

    Kamala Harris will win comfortably, because:
    • Biden’s admin has been solid
    • Trump’s lost ground since 2016
    • The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22
    • Young women like Kamala + vote
    Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses

    https://x.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1853325635747266782

    I wonder how much he's bet on this total sure thing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Nigelb said:

    The BBC was still running with 'neck and neck' this morning.

    It was left to its business report to highlight the potential significance of the Selzer poll.

    Which led me to wonder what percentage of Betfair US election betting is in the UK, and how much overseas ?

    It will probably be mostly UK, certainly in terms of client numbers. But it doesnt really matter as it can't diverge too far from polymarket which is mostly US and the odd French billionaire.
    There’s going to be a good story to be told about this French guy, said to be all-in on Trump for more than $10m. No hedging or playing markets, just a huge pile of bets all one way.

    If he was American one could believe he was a proxy for a PAC trying to move the market, but not sure either side want a charge of overseas interference. Perhaps he is actually a French-American?

    In US media news, NBC network gave Trump two free ads during the NFL and NASCAR events yesterday, to avoid suggestions of favouritism for inviting only Harris onto Saturday Night Live. They have similar ‘equal time’ rules to those in the UK, in the last week of the campaign. https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1853303566393389164
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Nigelb said:

    These people are more than a little nuts, but I suspect the predictions of violence are probably exaggerated.

    ‘We are locked and loaded’: Trump fans in North Carolina ready for a ‘stolen election’

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/03/trump-supporters-election-results
    ...A recent survey by the Public Religion Research Institute recorded that one in four Republican Trump supporters believe that were Trump to lose the election, he should declare the results invalid and do “whatever it takes” to retake the White House. That’s a sobering finding, but a grossly understated one, judging from the mood at Trump’s Kinston rally.

    “People will riot if Trump doesn’t win,” said Cedric Perness, 38, an African American Trump supporter. He said it would be too dangerous for him to participate in any post-election unrest – “I’d get killed right there.”..

    It would give the required impetus to deal with some of absurdities in the Second Amendment if they tried violence with guns to overturn the result.

    A nation of sore losers armed with semi-automatic assault rifles. Sheeesh.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    I have not been convinced by the US polls for some time. Particularly in recent weeks where we don’t even seem to have seen any outlier effect and nearly every crucial state is a statistical dead heat. Now, it may be that the election genuinely is that close in each state and we’ll look back after election night and say the polling was telling us correctly that the election was pretty much un-callable. But if I was to hazard a guess there’s another effect also in play here which is significant herding and fear of being the odd one out. Not long to wait.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Scott_xP said:

    @RoryStewartUK

    Kamala Harris will win comfortably, because:
    • Biden’s admin has been solid
    • Trump’s lost ground since 2016
    • The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22
    • Young women like Kamala + vote
    Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses

    https://x.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1853325635747266782

    That’s a lot of wishcasting from Rory, with little evidence to show for his assertions.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    There’s been a truly weird vibe shift in social media over the weekend, from consensus Trump is cruising to victory to increasingly confident statements that Kamala is going to smash him. All based on one Iowa poll?

    I don’t get it. All the grounds for a Trump Victory remain in place: anti-incumbency, perceptions on inflation and the economy, Trump’s personal ratings being higher than in 2016 or 2020, much closer national polling than 2020, the Conservative capture of the supreme court if things get that far.

    It reminds me of the Brexit vote in the closing days. People started to wonder if actually it might not be that close. Remain to win easily. I’m not making that mistake again. Trump has got this.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    An interesting piece on 538 of when we should know the result state by state and overall. The slightly depressing conclusion overall is Saturday: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/when-will-we-know-who-won-2024-election/#explore-states

    There are some states, notably the all important PA, who get a fair chunk of their vote counted quickly and then dither. If its really close as the polls have been indicating that dithering could go on a while. If they are not we might get some idea in the early hours.

    I am involved in a long running trial in Dundee at the moment. I am hopeful that I will get my jury speech done Tuesday afternoon after which it is enough to be present in body only but I am still not sure if it is worth staying up or just getting up early the next day. One factor is that unlike this country many polls close at 7pm Eastern time so we gain 3 hours there at least. Florida is one of the faster states. How close it is may have relevance to the swing states.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    The BBC was still running with 'neck and neck' this morning.

    It was left to its business report to highlight the potential significance of the Selzer poll.

    Which led me to wonder what percentage of Betfair US election betting is in the UK, and how much overseas ?

    It will probably be mostly UK, certainly in terms of client numbers. But it doesnt really matter as it can't diverge too far from polymarket which is mostly US and the odd French billionaire.
    There’s going to be a good story to be told about this French guy, said to be all-in on Trump for more than $10m. No hedging or playing markets, just a huge pile of bets all one way.

    If he was American one could believe he was a proxy for a PAC trying to move the market, but not sure either side want a charge of overseas interference. Perhaps he is actually a French-American?

    In US media news, NBC network gave Trump two free ads during the NFL and NASCAR events yesterday, to avoid suggestions of favouritism for inviting only Harris onto Saturday Night Live. They have similar ‘equal time’ rules to those in the UK, in the last week of the campaign. https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1853303566393389164
    So Harris got a few appearance on a show that reflects her demographics and Trump got one on events that target his demographics. A score draw at best then...
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    Something to keep an eye on for anyone with a pension.

    Rachel Reeves is expected to lay out an overhaul of the pensions industry in her mansion house speech in Mid November.

    She is a fan of the Canadian system (or has been successfully lobbied by those who favour it) and of Combined DC funds.

    I Shall most certainly move my company DC to my SIPP When I retire anyway.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/rachel-reeves-expected-to-lay-out-pensions-overhaul-with-rumours-of-canada-style-reform/ar-AA1tqLP1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=28a041895d804c82a4e4607af95a6c3f&ei=11
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