Crazy, imo at least, that expats can decide how the country they have left is run, over turning the wishes of the people who want to stay.
Ex-pats for more than a few years should have voting rights suspended until they return.
Nonsense. Those who have left Moldova are sending huge sums back as remittances, indeed without them the economy would be in an even bigger mess.
I accept I am in the minority on this but don't really understand why.
Another way of looking at it. If I moved to live in Switzerland, with an open ended contract and no intention to return, I would much rather be able to vote in Switzerland than the UK. And after a couple of years think myself more qualified to opine on the Swiss situation and future than the UK one.
I think there’s a philosophical difference between countries for whom elections are, when alls said and done, about tax and public services, and those where it’s about constitution, identity and the long term future.
Moldova is a small and poor country grappling with questions that are more about citizenship than domestic macroeconomics. Particularly its future accession to the EU, where so many Moldovans are working (notably Romania).
I’d like Britain to have the system France does: elected MPs representing expat communities. Imagine being the Westminster MP for the Spanish costas, or the Dordogne.
As someone who lives in Expatsville, where one is very unlikely to ever be a citizen, it’s always lovely to see a large queue outside an embassy as the citizens of that country line up to vote in elections. Taking a postal vote to the DHL office really isn’t the same.
Crazy, imo at least, that expats can decide how the country they have left is run, over turning the wishes of the people who want to stay.
Ex-pats for more than a few years should have voting rights suspended until they return.
Nonsense. Those who have left Moldova are sending huge sums back as remittances, indeed without them the economy would be in an even bigger mess.
I accept I am in the minority on this but don't really understand why.
Another way of looking at it. If I moved to live in Switzerland, with an open ended contract and no intention to return, I would much rather be able to vote in Switzerland than the UK. And after a couple of years think myself more qualified to opine on the Swiss situation and future than the UK one.
OK, but what if you move to Switzerland with a 4-year contract and every intention to return?
On the news this morning. Labour has a plan to stop the boats. A novel approach. Not been tried before. Here we go again.
We will stop the boats by helicoptering in anyone who wants to come over from France. Hence: no boats. Job jobbed.
Given the relatively small numbers compared with legal migration, coupled with rapid processing at source, it would probably save money.
Until we paid the Calais authorities to build some heavy duty walls to stop the migrants, boats weren't a problem in the first place. We just displaced the journey into a far more dangerous and visceral one.
The main reason the walls were built was that the shutting down the Eurotunnel for track invasions was escalating. In a fairly short time, the tunnel would have been closed all the time.
To the French, this was an attack on a piece of National Infrastructure.
There are some states, notably the all important PA, who get a fair chunk of their vote counted quickly and then dither. If its really close as the polls have been indicating that dithering could go on a while. If they are not we might get some idea in the early hours.
I am involved in a long running trial in Dundee at the moment. I am hopeful that I will get my jury speech done Tuesday afternoon after which it is enough to be present in body only but I am still not sure if it is worth staying up or just getting up early the next day. One factor is that unlike this country many polls close at 7pm Eastern time so we gain 3 hours there at least. Florida is one of the faster states. How close it is may have relevance to the swing states.
There are some states, notably the all important PA, who get a fair chunk of their vote counted quickly and then dither. If its really close as the polls have been indicating that dithering could go on a while. If they are not we might get some idea in the early hours.
I am involved in a long running trial in Dundee at the moment. I am hopeful that I will get my jury speech done Tuesday afternoon after which it is enough to be present in body only but I am still not sure if it is worth staying up or just getting up early the next day. One factor is that unlike this country many polls close at 7pm Eastern time so we gain 3 hours there at least. Florida is one of the faster states. How close it is may have relevance to the swing states.
Tuesday night is an awful choice for staying up most of the night for an election count.
Ireland look set for a Friday election, which is much better, but then they won't start counting until the Saturday anyway.
The BBC was still running with 'neck and neck' this morning.
It was left to its business report to highlight the potential significance of the Selzer poll.
Which led me to wonder what percentage of Betfair US election betting is in the UK, and how much overseas ?
It will probably be mostly UK, certainly in terms of client numbers. But it doesnt really matter as it can't diverge too far from polymarket which is mostly US and the odd French billionaire.
There’s going to be a good story to be told about this French guy, said to be all-in on Trump for more than $10m. No hedging or playing markets, just a huge pile of bets all one way.
If he was American one could believe he was a proxy for a PAC trying to move the market, but not sure either side want a charge of overseas interference. Perhaps he is actually a French-American?
It could totally be a French guy, the whole world consumes American elections vicariously as I shouldn't have to tell anyone here. Not at all saying I know who it is but I know a French guy it totally could be.
The thing about crypto is it produced a lot of people with tens or hundreds of millions of dollars, and they got it by believing something they were ideologically inclined to believe, going in big and sticking with their convictions even as people around them say they're an idiot.
That said the story about who it is could also be totally made up, we only have the word of an anonymous person.
Kamala Harris will win comfortably, because: • Biden’s admin has been solid • Trump’s lost ground since 2016 • The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22 • Young women like Kamala + vote Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses
There’s been a truly weird vibe shift in social media over the weekend, from consensus Trump is cruising to victory to increasingly confident statements that Kamala is going to smash him. All based on one Iowa poll?
I don’t get it. All the grounds for a Trump Victory remain in place: anti-incumbency, perceptions on inflation and the economy, Trump’s personal ratings being higher than in 2016 or 2020, much closer national polling than 2020, the Conservative capture of the supreme court if things get that far.
It reminds me of the Brexit vote in the closing days. People started to wonder if actually it might not be that close. Remain to win easily. I’m not making that mistake again. Trump has got this.
Freedland probably has it right, that it's not going to be as close as everyone says, and there'll be a reasonably convincing win. We just don't know which of them it will be.
Sample size of 435. And the much discussed Selzer poll is not that much better, with a sample size of 808.
The sample sizes of many US polls are embarrassingly small.
Iowa’s population is 3.8m
As a percentage of the population the equivalent would be 14,000 or so for the UK
So long it is sufficient statistically powered it’s ok
That's not how opinion polls [are supposed to] work. You need the same size sample for the same level of accuracy regardless of whether the population being sampled is 100,000 or 1 billion.
There are some states, notably the all important PA, who get a fair chunk of their vote counted quickly and then dither. If its really close as the polls have been indicating that dithering could go on a while. If they are not we might get some idea in the early hours.
I am involved in a long running trial in Dundee at the moment. I am hopeful that I will get my jury speech done Tuesday afternoon after which it is enough to be present in body only but I am still not sure if it is worth staying up or just getting up early the next day. One factor is that unlike this country many polls close at 7pm Eastern time so we gain 3 hours there at least. Florida is one of the faster states. How close it is may have relevance to the swing states.
Harris wins Florida --> we can all go to bed...
It will definitely help everyone’s sanity if the result is very clear-cut by Wednesday morning, one way or the other. So many people have already been driven mad by this election, that another two months of arguing about who actually won is going to be terrible for the country.
Both presidential teams are still very confident of the win over the weekend, let’s see who can get their voters out tomorrow.
Kamala Harris will win comfortably, because: • Biden’s admin has been solid • Trump’s lost ground since 2016 • The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22 • Young women like Kamala + vote Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses
That’s a lot of wishcasting from Rory, with little evidence to show for his assertions.
Well...
• Biden’s admin has been solid
Biden inherited 4% inflation. He'll leave his successor with inflation nearly half that.
Biden has added jobs. He inherited unemployment at 6.3%, he leaves it at 4.1%.
Stock markets at all time highs.
• Trump’s lost ground since 2016 - we will see. With women and degree educated people for sure. Has he made up enough in other areas? Probably not - there isn't much of a pool left to add from that wasn't already voting for him in white non-degree educated. Blacks? Latinos? We will see. Unlikley enough to make up the difference.
• The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22 - unarguable
• Young women like Kamala + vote - we will see. Anecdotally, for sure. Early voting? For sure. Voter registrations? For sure.
Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses - Selzer aside, looks that way...
Crazy, imo at least, that expats can decide how the country they have left is run, over turning the wishes of the people who want to stay.
Ex-pats for more than a few years should have voting rights suspended until they return.
Nonsense. Those who have left Moldova are sending huge sums back as remittances, indeed without them the economy would be in an even bigger mess.
I accept I am in the minority on this but don't really understand why.
Another way of looking at it. If I moved to live in Switzerland, with an open ended contract and no intention to return, I would much rather be able to vote in Switzerland than the UK. And after a couple of years think myself more qualified to opine on the Swiss situation and future than the UK one.
OK, but what if you move to Switzerland with a 4-year contract and every intention to return?
There’s been a truly weird vibe shift in social media over the weekend, from consensus Trump is cruising to victory to increasingly confident statements that Kamala is going to smash him. All based on one Iowa poll?
I don’t get it. All the grounds for a Trump Victory remain in place: anti-incumbency, perceptions on inflation and the economy, Trump’s personal ratings being higher than in 2016 or 2020, much closer national polling than 2020, the Conservative capture of the supreme court if things get that far.
It reminds me of the Brexit vote in the closing days. People started to wonder if actually it might not be that close. Remain to win easily. I’m not making that mistake again. Trump has got this.
The shift is indeed very odd. However. I would argue that consensus Trump was equally weird. All the grounds for a Harris victory are there, too, and always have been. We don't know.
Crazy, imo at least, that expats can decide how the country they have left is run, over turning the wishes of the people who want to stay.
Ex-pats for more than a few years should have voting rights suspended until they return.
Nonsense. Those who have left Moldova are sending huge sums back as remittances, indeed without them the economy would be in an even bigger mess.
I accept I am in the minority on this but don't really understand why.
Another way of looking at it. If I moved to live in Switzerland, with an open ended contract and no intention to return, I would much rather be able to vote in Switzerland than the UK. And after a couple of years think myself more qualified to opine on the Swiss situation and future than the UK one.
OK, but what if you move to Switzerland with a 4-year contract and every intention to return?
I would probably limit expat votes to 5 years.
It should be based on citizenship. Everyone should be able to vote somewhere. In most cases expats can’t vote in their host country’s national elections.
Cut off their home country vote and you get…citizens of nowhere.
Crazy, imo at least, that expats can decide how the country they have left is run, over turning the wishes of the people who want to stay.
Ex-pats for more than a few years should have voting rights suspended until they return.
Nonsense. Those who have left Moldova are sending huge sums back as remittances, indeed without them the economy would be in an even bigger mess.
I accept I am in the minority on this but don't really understand why.
Another way of looking at it. If I moved to live in Switzerland, with an open ended contract and no intention to return, I would much rather be able to vote in Switzerland than the UK. And after a couple of years think myself more qualified to opine on the Swiss situation and future than the UK one.
OK, but what if you move to Switzerland with a 4-year contract and every intention to return?
I would probably limit expat votes to 5 years.
It should be based on citizenship. Everyone should be able to vote somewhere. In most cases expats can’t vote in their host country’s national elections.
Cut off their home country vote and you get…citizens of nowhere.
By choice, and temporarily until they return or take citizenship elsewhere. Sounds reasonable to me.
There’s been a truly weird vibe shift in social media over the weekend, from consensus Trump is cruising to victory to increasingly confident statements that Kamala is going to smash him. All based on one Iowa poll?
I don’t get it. All the grounds for a Trump Victory remain in place: anti-incumbency, perceptions on inflation and the economy, Trump’s personal ratings being higher than in 2016 or 2020, much closer national polling than 2020, the Conservative capture of the supreme court if things get that far.
It reminds me of the Brexit vote in the closing days. People started to wonder if actually it might not be that close. Remain to win easily. I’m not making that mistake again. Trump has got this.
I think the "vibe shift" has also been influenced by a more positive Democrat reading of the early voting returns.
Comments
To the French, this was an attack on a piece of National Infrastructure.
As a percentage of the population the equivalent would be 14,000 or so for the UK
So long it is sufficient statistically powered it’s ok
Ireland look set for a Friday election, which is much better, but then they won't start counting until the Saturday anyway.
The thing about crypto is it produced a lot of people with tens or hundreds of millions of dollars, and they got it by believing something they were ideologically inclined to believe, going in big and sticking with their convictions even as people around them say they're an idiot.
That said the story about who it is could also be totally made up, we only have the word of an anonymous person.
Gurney Halleck.
NEW THREAD
How many of those are relied on by Moldova for income from overseas remittances, for example ?
In any event, the vote was close enough that your 'few years' restriction probably would not have changed the result.
Also crazy, the amount of Russian election interference.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyMAPhtmna4
The approach deterred the Spanish a while back, so why not boats from France now?
Both presidential teams are still very confident of the win over the weekend, let’s see who can get their voters out tomorrow.
• Biden’s admin has been solid
Biden inherited 4% inflation. He'll leave his successor with inflation nearly half that.
Biden has added jobs. He inherited unemployment at 6.3%, he leaves it at 4.1%.
Stock markets at all time highs.
• Trump’s lost ground since 2016 - we will see. With women and degree educated people for sure. Has he made up enough in other areas? Probably not - there isn't much of a pool left to add from that wasn't already voting for him in white non-degree educated. Blacks? Latinos? We will see. Unlikley enough to make up the difference.
• The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22 - unarguable
• Young women like Kamala + vote - we will see. Anecdotally, for sure. Early voting? For sure. Voter registrations? For sure.
Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses - Selzer aside, looks that way...
Watched it all the way through. I had completely forgotten Ken too
It is truly terrible.
However. I would argue that consensus Trump was equally weird.
All the grounds for a Harris victory are there, too, and always have been.
We don't know.
Cut off their home country vote and you get…citizens of nowhere.
https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4886/1
Dwayne Day - Satellite reconnaissance and the Falklands War