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Senatus Populusque – Previewing November’s other elections Part II

SystemSystem Posts: 12,127
edited October 29 in General
imageSenatus Populusque – Previewing November’s other elections – politicalbetting.com

Part II – The House, Governors and Ballot measures

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    edited October 29
    I do enjoy details of ballot measures, the barmier the better.

    Also on this point

    What this means is the number of swing districts has decreased over time and these are now mainly in states, where there are either independent boundary commissions e.g. California or where courts have intervened to draw maps e.g. New York

    Who could have ever guessed!

    Only 32 genuine tossup districts is insane though.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,243
    Leon said:

    No. We should aim for zero migration and more white British babies

    I do not want to live in a Britain where white people are a minority. Just as Nigerians do not want to live in a Nigeria where they are a racial minority, nor Japanese likewise in Japan: and fair enough

    We’ve had enough migration. Good fences make good neighbours

    Leon clearly wanted a break, no chance at all he believes this. He might be a total muppet but he's not a racist.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,269
    I suspect the House narrowly stays GOP, not much change in the governor races and a mixed picture in the ballots
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,243
    maxh said:

    bondegezou said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    @TimS can you link this post? That's shocking to see overt racism on this board now.

    Things really have descended. Sad.

    I presume you are referring to https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5005818/#Comment_5005818 ?
    Oops, no. @TimS is referring to this: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5006126#Comment_5006126. @BatteryCorrectHorse for the avoidance of doubt this is NOT my view, I was attempting to parody a home counties racist. Clearly it didn't work, apologies for the confusion.
    It reads like a joke to me.

    But I do stand by the thrust of my point, I do think this site has descended a lot from a view posters.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    edited October 29
    Robinson in North Carolina seems a classic example of Trumpers picking the Trumpiest candidate possible, and finding they cannot carry the vote the way Trump can, and (possibly) losing a very winnable race as a result.

    I reckon Trump takes the state though.

    I enjoy the detail of the blanket primary system.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,269
    edited October 29
    Redfield Wilton swing states poll

    Wisconsin

    Harris 49% Trump 47%

    Michigan

    Harris 49% Trump 48%

    Pennsylvania

    Harris 48% Trump 48%

    Georgia

    Trump 48% Harris 47%

    North Carolina

    Trump 48% Harris 46%

    Nevada

    Harris 47% Trump 47%

    Arizona

    Trump 49% Harris 47%
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-25-27-october-2024/
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Frankly I think people writing off SKS at this point are incredibly naïve. You could have taken these posts and transplanted them back to 2020/2021 when people were saying Johnson would be PM for a decade. I think only @Anabobazina and myself were saying otherwise.

    Of course I also thought Jezza would win in 2019 so...

    Starmer is there for the next 4 years plus unless he has a health issue or something entirely unexpected
    Maybe not. Autumn 2027 looking most likely Starmer exit date imo.

    The election won’t be 15th August 2029 as that’s holiday season for sure. Also if 5 party +2 Nats +1 Corbyn Hamas Alliance is still polling strongly in 2028, rather than historic largely 2 party general elections, Labour couldn’t possibly guess what would happen in a year early GE, like Blair could in 2005 with modest poll lead to defend, so it’s for sure going to be a 2029 election.

    I’m 100% confident the date of the General Election is 3rd May 2029. If you want a flutter on the date.

    If in 2027 Starmer is 15%+ behind the Conservatives, he will be removed, late 2027, if conference doesn’t get a poll bounce, in order to give his successor (Reeves) a year and bit in role before the 2029 election.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Leon said:

    No. We should aim for zero migration and more white British babies

    I do not want to live in a Britain where white people are a minority. Just as Nigerians do not want to live in a Nigeria where they are a racial minority, nor Japanese likewise in Japan: and fair enough

    We’ve had enough migration. Good fences make good neighbours

    Leon clearly wanted a break, no chance at all he believes this. He might be a total muppet but he's not a racist.
    You mean the person who deliberately chose to move to one of the most multiracial parts of the UK?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Leon said:

    No. We should aim for zero migration and more white British babies

    I do not want to live in a Britain where white people are a minority. Just as Nigerians do not want to live in a Nigeria where they are a racial minority, nor Japanese likewise in Japan: and fair enough

    We’ve had enough migration. Good fences make good neighbours

    Leon clearly wanted a break, no chance at all he believes this. He might be a total muppet but he's not a racist.
    This is not the first time he's said something racist. It won't be the last time if he's let back on. He has repeatedly said racist things, e.g. claiming races are as genetically distinct as subspecies or saying people from Africa are cognitively challenged.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    Does doing very well in State X with one demographic allow us to infer anything about State Y with a different one?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Leon said:

    No. We should aim for zero migration and more white British babies

    I do not want to live in a Britain where white people are a minority. Just as Nigerians do not want to live in a Nigeria where they are a racial minority, nor Japanese likewise in Japan: and fair enough

    We’ve had enough migration. Good fences make good neighbours

    Leon clearly wanted a break, no chance at all he believes this. He might be a total muppet but he's not a racist.
    You mean the person who deliberately chose to move to one of the most multiracial parts of the UK?
    He's like one of gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging in an airport toilet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    I am sticking to my guns and not reading too much into the early voting patterns.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Leon said:

    No. We should aim for zero migration and more white British babies

    I do not want to live in a Britain where white people are a minority. Just as Nigerians do not want to live in a Nigeria where they are a racial minority, nor Japanese likewise in Japan: and fair enough

    We’ve had enough migration. Good fences make good neighbours

    Leon clearly wanted a break, no chance at all he believes this. He might be a total muppet but he's not a racist.
    You mean the person who deliberately chose to move to one of the most multiracial parts of the UK?
    He's like one of gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging in an airport toilet.
    Does that make this website the toilet?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    I'm sceptical about the claim that Trump is doing better among Black and Latino voters but worse among white voters, especially against the backdrop of more open support for him among certain elite figures. Why would he not be doing better across the board?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,707
    edited October 29
    Sad times. Her relatively small part in The Conversation is still my favourite performance of hers.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cje09595v5ko

    Teri Garr, an Oscar-nominated actress best known for her work in movies including Young Frankenstein, Mr Mom and Tootsie, has died at 79, US media report.

    Garr died in Los Angeles on Tuesday after a 20-year battle with multiple sclerosis "surrounded by family and friends", her publicist Heidi Schaeffer said in a statement.

    She first talked publicly about the chronic autoimmune disease in 2002 to raise awareness for others living with it.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    Musk's Twitter is at it again.

    People's "For You" sidebars are filling up with posts by people like Paul Golding, of Britain First, calling on Starmer to resign.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Leon said:

    No. We should aim for zero migration and more white British babies

    I do not want to live in a Britain where white people are a minority. Just as Nigerians do not want to live in a Nigeria where they are a racial minority, nor Japanese likewise in Japan: and fair enough

    We’ve had enough migration. Good fences make good neighbours

    Leon clearly wanted a break, no chance at all he believes this. He might be a total muppet but he's not a racist.
    You mean the person who deliberately chose to move to one of the most multiracial parts of the UK?
    He's like one of gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging in an airport toilet.
    His biggest crime is not knowing what Frost intended in "Mending Walls."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    I'm sceptical about the claim that Trump is doing better among Black and Latino voters but worse among white voters, especially against the backdrop of more open support for him among certain elite figures. Why would he not be doing better across the board?
    Might have already maxed out his support in that group so more have grown a bit weary of him over time?

    Though I think caution on it being true makes some sense.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793
    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    There's only so long the Republicans can keep getting more votes in Nevada before somebody admits they are winning... 👿
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,269
    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    I'm sceptical about the claim that Trump is doing better among Black and Latino voters but worse among white voters, especially against the backdrop of more open support for him among certain elite figures. Why would he not be doing better across the board?
    White women in particular are pro choice overall
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    Well, you could infer that a lot of the early voting registered Republicans in Nevada are in fact Harris voting ones, but that seems a bit optimistic to rely upon.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923
    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    I'm sceptical about the claim that Trump is doing better among Black and Latino voters but worse among white voters, especially against the backdrop of more open support for him among certain elite figures. Why would he not be doing better across the board?
    Back in 2016, Hillary was doing better with some demographics and worse with others.

    Why should Harris in 2024 be any different?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    biggles said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    Does doing very well in State X with one demographic allow us to infer anything about State Y with a different one?
    We have to be careful of the ecological fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_fallacy
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923
    kle4 said:

    I do enjoy details of ballot measures, the barmier the better.

    Also on this point

    What this means is the number of swing districts has decreased over time and these are now mainly in states, where there are either independent boundary commissions e.g. California or where courts have intervened to draw maps e.g. New York

    Who could have ever guessed!

    Only 32 genuine tossup districts is insane though.

    There are as many competitive states as there are competitive House districts.

    Which is insane.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    Anabobazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Redfield Wilton swing states poll

    Wisconsin

    Harris 49% Trump 47%

    Michigan

    Harris 49% Trump 48%

    Pennsylvania

    Harris 48% Trump 48%

    Georgia

    Trump 48% Harris 47%

    North Carolina

    Trump 48% Harris 46%

    Nevada

    Harris 47% Trump 47%

    Arizona

    Trump 49% Harris 47%
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-25-27-october-2024/

    “Mr Redfield?”

    “Yes, Mr Wilton?”

    “It seems those we surveyed in the so-called ‘swing states’ have spoken.”

    “Quite so, Mr Wilton, although it isn’t terribly clear what they have said.”
    They're saying they want us to flip a coin to decide the elections for them - it would be easier to verify the result than all the lawsuit riddled results we'll actually get.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    biggles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Leon said:

    No. We should aim for zero migration and more white British babies

    I do not want to live in a Britain where white people are a minority. Just as Nigerians do not want to live in a Nigeria where they are a racial minority, nor Japanese likewise in Japan: and fair enough

    We’ve had enough migration. Good fences make good neighbours

    Leon clearly wanted a break, no chance at all he believes this. He might be a total muppet but he's not a racist.
    You mean the person who deliberately chose to move to one of the most multiracial parts of the UK?
    He's like one of gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging in an airport toilet.
    Does that make this website the toilet?
    You can joke about the PB toilets, but you’ve never been locked up in them for five months. 🚻
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    Very interesting pair of posts. I hadn’t realised until I just looked how dominant the Dems were in Congress from the Great Depression until the Millennium. Even Reagan never held the House!

    Sounds like we might be headed for a Rep Senate, narrowly Dem House and who bloody knows on Pres. Something for everyone I suppose.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793
    Just to summarise for Nevada. Republicans have got more registered voters than the Dems. Their early turnout is better. Their early votes are bigger. The Dem margin was very small last time. If those Dem cavalry are going to come over the hill they are running out of time and may not in fact exist, So if somebody can please offer me some proof other than their pants water that the indies are breaking for Kamala by at least 5%, it is rather looking like Trump is winning in NV.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    biggles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Leon said:

    No. We should aim for zero migration and more white British babies

    I do not want to live in a Britain where white people are a minority. Just as Nigerians do not want to live in a Nigeria where they are a racial minority, nor Japanese likewise in Japan: and fair enough

    We’ve had enough migration. Good fences make good neighbours

    Leon clearly wanted a break, no chance at all he believes this. He might be a total muppet but he's not a racist.
    You mean the person who deliberately chose to move to one of the most multiracial parts of the UK?
    He's like one of gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging in an airport toilet.
    Does that make this website the toilet?
    No, The Toilets is the secret PB community.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    ...
    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    I'm sceptical about the claim that Trump is doing better among Black and Latino voters but worse among white voters, especially against the backdrop of more open support for him among certain elite figures. Why would he not be doing better across the board?
    Save for Musk, James Woods and Kid Rock, who might those elite figures be? I thought Trump was against elites.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793
    bondegezou said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Leon said:

    No. We should aim for zero migration and more white British babies

    I do not want to live in a Britain where white people are a minority. Just as Nigerians do not want to live in a Nigeria where they are a racial minority, nor Japanese likewise in Japan: and fair enough

    We’ve had enough migration. Good fences make good neighbours

    Leon clearly wanted a break, no chance at all he believes this. He might be a total muppet but he's not a racist.
    This is not the first time he's said something racist. It won't be the last time if he's let back on. He has repeatedly said racist things, e.g. claiming races are as genetically distinct as subspecies or saying people from Africa are cognitively challenged.
    Races are not as genetically distinct as subspecies, unless he's got another toe he's not telling us about. Which is tbf plausible... 😃
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    dixiedean said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Leon said:

    No. We should aim for zero migration and more white British babies

    I do not want to live in a Britain where white people are a minority. Just as Nigerians do not want to live in a Nigeria where they are a racial minority, nor Japanese likewise in Japan: and fair enough

    We’ve had enough migration. Good fences make good neighbours

    Leon clearly wanted a break, no chance at all he believes this. He might be a total muppet but he's not a racist.
    You mean the person who deliberately chose to move to one of the most multiracial parts of the UK?
    He's like one of gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging in an airport toilet.
    His biggest crime is not knowing what Frost intended in "Mending Walls."
    Wasn't that about Robert Frost's heartfelt plea for someone to make Mexico to pay for a really big wall?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    I am sticking to my guns and not reading too much into the early voting patterns.
    I’ve been keeping out of this market full stop. I might have been interested in a flutter on the basis of EVs in NV had I been able to find a comparison with 2012 (ie before Trump discouraged EVs). But I haven’t been able to source one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    Mexicanpete said:

    ...

    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    I'm sceptical about the claim that Trump is doing better among Black and Latino voters but worse among white voters, especially against the backdrop of more open support for him among certain elite figures. Why would he not be doing better across the board?
    Save for Musk, James Woods and Kid Rock, who might those elite figures be? I thought Trump was against elites.
    I think he has quite a few tech bros in his camp, and the top party figures are all a lot more beholden to his will than in 2016 at least.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    MoonRabbit said:

    biggles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Leon said:

    No. We should aim for zero migration and more white British babies

    I do not want to live in a Britain where white people are a minority. Just as Nigerians do not want to live in a Nigeria where they are a racial minority, nor Japanese likewise in Japan: and fair enough

    We’ve had enough migration. Good fences make good neighbours

    Leon clearly wanted a break, no chance at all he believes this. He might be a total muppet but he's not a racist.
    You mean the person who deliberately chose to move to one of the most multiracial parts of the UK?
    He's like one of gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging in an airport toilet.
    Does that make this website the toilet?
    You can joke about the PB toilets, but you’ve never been locked up in them for five months. 🚻
    Only the best people know where The PB Toilets are.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793
    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Frankly I think people writing off SKS at this point are incredibly naïve. You could have taken these posts and transplanted them back to 2020/2021 when people were saying Johnson would be PM for a decade. I think only @Anabobazina and myself were saying otherwise.

    Of course I also thought Jezza would win in 2019 so...

    Starmer is there for the next 4 years plus unless he has a health issue or something entirely unexpected
    Maybe not. Autumn 2027 looking most likely Starmer exit date imo.

    The election won’t be 15th August 2029 as that’s holiday season for sure. Also if 5 party +2 Nats +1 Corbyn Hamas Alliance is still polling strongly in 2028, rather than historic largely 2 party general elections, Labour couldn’t possibly guess what would happen in a year early GE, like Blair could in 2005 with modest poll lead to defend, so it’s for sure going to be a 2029 election.

    I’m 100% confident the date of the General Election is 3rd May 2029. If you want a flutter on the date.

    If in 2027 Starmer is 15%+ behind the Conservatives, he will be removed, late 2027, if conference doesn’t get a poll bounce, in order to give his successor (Reeves) a year and bit in role before the 2029 election.
    Labour has neither a tradition nor a mechanism for ejecting a party leader nor a PM.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    biggles said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    Does doing very well in State X with one demographic allow us to infer anything about State Y with a different one?
    Not at all.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    Well, you could infer that a lot of the early voting registered Republicans in Nevada are in fact Harris voting ones, but that seems a bit optimistic to rely upon.
    Not really, it actually hits the nail on the head. Nobody, not the Rackety Ralston or anybody, knows who these votes are for, only who they are registered.

    Imo the number of Registered GOP voting Harris in this election will be massive. Are the Cheney and Bush not registered republicans?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    Malmesbury said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    biggles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Leon said:

    No. We should aim for zero migration and more white British babies

    I do not want to live in a Britain where white people are a minority. Just as Nigerians do not want to live in a Nigeria where they are a racial minority, nor Japanese likewise in Japan: and fair enough

    We’ve had enough migration. Good fences make good neighbours

    Leon clearly wanted a break, no chance at all he believes this. He might be a total muppet but he's not a racist.
    You mean the person who deliberately chose to move to one of the most multiracial parts of the UK?
    He's like one of gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging in an airport toilet.
    Does that make this website the toilet?
    You can joke about the PB toilets, but you’ve never been locked up in them for five months. 🚻
    Only the best people know where The PB Toilets are.
    Given the initial analogy, I’m now worried what the secret handshake involves shaking.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    I am sticking to my guns and not reading too much into the early voting patterns.
    We are at T-minus 7days and dropping fast. As earlies go it is getting late... ☹️
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,597
    Malmesbury said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    biggles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Leon said:

    No. We should aim for zero migration and more white British babies

    I do not want to live in a Britain where white people are a minority. Just as Nigerians do not want to live in a Nigeria where they are a racial minority, nor Japanese likewise in Japan: and fair enough

    We’ve had enough migration. Good fences make good neighbours

    Leon clearly wanted a break, no chance at all he believes this. He might be a total muppet but he's not a racist.
    You mean the person who deliberately chose to move to one of the most multiracial parts of the UK?
    He's like one of gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging in an airport toilet.
    Does that make this website the toilet?
    You can joke about the PB toilets, but you’ve never been locked up in them for five months. 🚻
    Only the best people know where The PB Toilets are.
    Are they like the Philharmonic Dining Rooms?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    I'm sceptical about the claim that Trump is doing better among Black and Latino voters but worse among white voters, especially against the backdrop of more open support for him among certain elite figures. Why would he not be doing better across the board?
    Back in 2016, Hillary was doing better with some demographics and worse with others.

    Why should Harris in 2024 be any different?
    The most significant difference in the demographic breakdown between 2016 and 2020 was that men were evenly split between Biden and Trump whereas he had a big advantage over Clinton in 2016.

    Admittedly one very interesting point is that white women were more pro-Trump in 2020 than in 2016, and this might have gone into reverse.

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

    image
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    viewcode said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Frankly I think people writing off SKS at this point are incredibly naïve. You could have taken these posts and transplanted them back to 2020/2021 when people were saying Johnson would be PM for a decade. I think only @Anabobazina and myself were saying otherwise.

    Of course I also thought Jezza would win in 2019 so...

    Starmer is there for the next 4 years plus unless he has a health issue or something entirely unexpected
    Maybe not. Autumn 2027 looking most likely Starmer exit date imo.

    The election won’t be 15th August 2029 as that’s holiday season for sure. Also if 5 party +2 Nats +1 Corbyn Hamas Alliance is still polling strongly in 2028, rather than historic largely 2 party general elections, Labour couldn’t possibly guess what would happen in a year early GE, like Blair could in 2005 with modest poll lead to defend, so it’s for sure going to be a 2029 election.

    I’m 100% confident the date of the General Election is 3rd May 2029. If you want a flutter on the date.

    If in 2027 Starmer is 15%+ behind the Conservatives, he will be removed, late 2027, if conference doesn’t get a poll bounce, in order to give his successor (Reeves) a year and bit in role before the 2029 election.
    Labour has neither a tradition nor a mechanism for ejecting a party leader nor a PM.
    that is true to a point but starmer is no Corbyn or Johnson. He'll know when the writing is on the wall and will leave for the benefit of the party. I'd expect it to be age or health that made him stand down though
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    viewcode said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Frankly I think people writing off SKS at this point are incredibly naïve. You could have taken these posts and transplanted them back to 2020/2021 when people were saying Johnson would be PM for a decade. I think only @Anabobazina and myself were saying otherwise.

    Of course I also thought Jezza would win in 2019 so...

    Starmer is there for the next 4 years plus unless he has a health issue or something entirely unexpected
    Maybe not. Autumn 2027 looking most likely Starmer exit date imo.

    The election won’t be 15th August 2029 as that’s holiday season for sure. Also if 5 party +2 Nats +1 Corbyn Hamas Alliance is still polling strongly in 2028, rather than historic largely 2 party general elections, Labour couldn’t possibly guess what would happen in a year early GE, like Blair could in 2005 with modest poll lead to defend, so it’s for sure going to be a 2029 election.

    I’m 100% confident the date of the General Election is 3rd May 2029. If you want a flutter on the date.

    If in 2027 Starmer is 15%+ behind the Conservatives, he will be removed, late 2027, if conference doesn’t get a poll bounce, in order to give his successor (Reeves) a year and bit in role before the 2029 election.
    Labour has neither a tradition nor a mechanism for ejecting a party leader nor a PM.
    15+ behind with just 18 months to go, they will find a way…
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Flatlander said:

    Malmesbury said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    biggles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Leon said:

    No. We should aim for zero migration and more white British babies

    I do not want to live in a Britain where white people are a minority. Just as Nigerians do not want to live in a Nigeria where they are a racial minority, nor Japanese likewise in Japan: and fair enough

    We’ve had enough migration. Good fences make good neighbours

    Leon clearly wanted a break, no chance at all he believes this. He might be a total muppet but he's not a racist.
    You mean the person who deliberately chose to move to one of the most multiracial parts of the UK?
    He's like one of gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging in an airport toilet.
    Does that make this website the toilet?
    You can joke about the PB toilets, but you’ve never been locked up in them for five months. 🚻
    Only the best people know where The PB Toilets are.
    Are they like the Philharmonic Dining Rooms?
    Much posher.

    Only the Original 12 know where they are.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Re: Leon’s post. I did see it at the time but didn’t respond, assuming it was a parody. Maybe I was wrong to make that assumption.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793
    MoonRabbit said:

    viewcode said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Frankly I think people writing off SKS at this point are incredibly naïve. You could have taken these posts and transplanted them back to 2020/2021 when people were saying Johnson would be PM for a decade. I think only @Anabobazina and myself were saying otherwise.

    Of course I also thought Jezza would win in 2019 so...

    Starmer is there for the next 4 years plus unless he has a health issue or something entirely unexpected
    Maybe not. Autumn 2027 looking most likely Starmer exit date imo.

    The election won’t be 15th August 2029 as that’s holiday season for sure. Also if 5 party +2 Nats +1 Corbyn Hamas Alliance is still polling strongly in 2028, rather than historic largely 2 party general elections, Labour couldn’t possibly guess what would happen in a year early GE, like Blair could in 2005 with modest poll lead to defend, so it’s for sure going to be a 2029 election.

    I’m 100% confident the date of the General Election is 3rd May 2029. If you want a flutter on the date.

    If in 2027 Starmer is 15%+ behind the Conservatives, he will be removed, late 2027, if conference doesn’t get a poll bounce, in order to give his successor (Reeves) a year and bit in role before the 2029 election.
    Labour has neither a tradition nor a mechanism for ejecting a party leader nor a PM.
    15+ behind with just 18 months to go, they will find a way…
    With all due respect to my lovely lovely Labour colleagues, they are not known for digging themselves OUT of holes
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    MoonRabbit said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    Well, you could infer that a lot of the early voting registered Republicans in Nevada are in fact Harris voting ones, but that seems a bit optimistic to rely upon.
    Not really, it actually hits the nail on the head. Nobody, not the Rackety Ralston or anybody, knows who these votes are for, only who they are registered.

    Imo the number of Registered GOP voting Harris in this election will be massive. Are the Cheney and Bush not registered republicans?
    According to one neverTrumper here there were 7% GOP defectors in 2020 (and they termed the defection rate of 4-6% needed to win 'the Bannon Line'), so if true it's that they need to reach or exceed. Some are confident enough of it in the swing states, presumably fueling those curious predictions where Trump might win the popular vote but still lose.
    https://greattransformation.substack.com/p/what-is-the-new-bannon-line-for-2024?r=305o&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    spudgfsh said:

    viewcode said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Frankly I think people writing off SKS at this point are incredibly naïve. You could have taken these posts and transplanted them back to 2020/2021 when people were saying Johnson would be PM for a decade. I think only @Anabobazina and myself were saying otherwise.

    Of course I also thought Jezza would win in 2019 so...

    Starmer is there for the next 4 years plus unless he has a health issue or something entirely unexpected
    Maybe not. Autumn 2027 looking most likely Starmer exit date imo.

    The election won’t be 15th August 2029 as that’s holiday season for sure. Also if 5 party +2 Nats +1 Corbyn Hamas Alliance is still polling strongly in 2028, rather than historic largely 2 party general elections, Labour couldn’t possibly guess what would happen in a year early GE, like Blair could in 2005 with modest poll lead to defend, so it’s for sure going to be a 2029 election.

    I’m 100% confident the date of the General Election is 3rd May 2029. If you want a flutter on the date.

    If in 2027 Starmer is 15%+ behind the Conservatives, he will be removed, late 2027, if conference doesn’t get a poll bounce, in order to give his successor (Reeves) a year and bit in role before the 2029 election.
    Labour has neither a tradition nor a mechanism for ejecting a party leader nor a PM.
    that is true to a point but starmer is no Corbyn or Johnson. He'll know when the writing is on the wall and will leave for the benefit of the party. I'd expect it to be age or health that made him stand down though
    To spend time helping his wife in her new clothes shop.

    Maybe even retreat to an uplands farm and set up a Donkey Sanctuary.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    edited October 29
    Anabobazina said:

    Re: Leon’s post. I did see it at the time but didn’t respond, assuming it was a parody. Maybe I was wrong to make that assumption.

    Sometimes parodies overshoot the line, even when the intent of a parody is to push against it, hence why sin bins exist as halfway measures.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793
    Malmesbury said:

    biggles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Leon said:

    No. We should aim for zero migration and more white British babies

    I do not want to live in a Britain where white people are a minority. Just as Nigerians do not want to live in a Nigeria where they are a racial minority, nor Japanese likewise in Japan: and fair enough

    We’ve had enough migration. Good fences make good neighbours

    Leon clearly wanted a break, no chance at all he believes this. He might be a total muppet but he's not a racist.
    You mean the person who deliberately chose to move to one of the most multiracial parts of the UK?
    He's like one of gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging in an airport toilet.
    Does that make this website the toilet?
    No, The Toilets is the secret PB community.
    I was in it for two years!
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    MoonRabbit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    viewcode said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Frankly I think people writing off SKS at this point are incredibly naïve. You could have taken these posts and transplanted them back to 2020/2021 when people were saying Johnson would be PM for a decade. I think only @Anabobazina and myself were saying otherwise.

    Of course I also thought Jezza would win in 2019 so...

    Starmer is there for the next 4 years plus unless he has a health issue or something entirely unexpected
    Maybe not. Autumn 2027 looking most likely Starmer exit date imo.

    The election won’t be 15th August 2029 as that’s holiday season for sure. Also if 5 party +2 Nats +1 Corbyn Hamas Alliance is still polling strongly in 2028, rather than historic largely 2 party general elections, Labour couldn’t possibly guess what would happen in a year early GE, like Blair could in 2005 with modest poll lead to defend, so it’s for sure going to be a 2029 election.

    I’m 100% confident the date of the General Election is 3rd May 2029. If you want a flutter on the date.

    If in 2027 Starmer is 15%+ behind the Conservatives, he will be removed, late 2027, if conference doesn’t get a poll bounce, in order to give his successor (Reeves) a year and bit in role before the 2029 election.
    Labour has neither a tradition nor a mechanism for ejecting a party leader nor a PM.
    that is true to a point but starmer is no Corbyn or Johnson. He'll know when the writing is on the wall and will leave for the benefit of the party. I'd expect it to be age or health that made him stand down though
    To spend time helping his wife in her new clothes shop.

    Maybe even retreat to an uplands farm and set up a Donkey Sanctuary.
    Surely a toolmaking factory?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    kle4 said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Re: Leon’s post. I did see it at the time but didn’t respond, assuming it was a parody. Maybe I was wrong to make that assumption.

    Sometimes parodies overshoot the line, even when the intent of a parody is to push against it, hence why sin bins exist as halfway measures.
    Yes, to be clear I’m not challenging the decision of the moderators.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    This is stark

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1851356884487585876
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    Anabobazina said:

    Re: Leon’s post. I did see it at the time but didn’t respond, assuming it was a parody. Maybe I was wrong to make that assumption.

    I'm slightly surprised it's generating any controversy. It didn't strike me as in any way controversial.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    edited October 29
    Remarkable as it might seem, Sir Keir is already 62 years of age. I doubt he would want to fight an election at almost 67. Reeves will be his anointed successor I should think, perhaps with a transfer of power in the autumn of 2027.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    There's only so long the Republicans can keep getting more votes in Nevada before somebody admits they are winning... 👿
    You can get 1.6 last time I looked

    Fwiw as a Trumpaphobe it's this NV thing I'm most concerned about. Ralston is a bit of a ledge and based on the votes data he's all but calling it for Trump.

    It's only 6 EC votes but that's not the point. If
    NV is going from a 2pt DEM win last time to a comfortable GOP win this time what's that saying about the overall? Hmmm. I know states don't move in unison but still.

    This is probably one of the factors driving the Trump price down in the main market and I'd love to say it's irrational but it isn't really.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793
    ohnotnow said:

    Sad times. Her relatively small part in The Conversation is still my favourite performance of hers.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cje09595v5ko

    Teri Garr, an Oscar-nominated actress best known for her work in movies including Young Frankenstein, Mr Mom and Tootsie, has died at 79, US media report.

    Garr died in Los Angeles on Tuesday after a 20-year battle with multiple sclerosis "surrounded by family and friends", her publicist Heidi Schaeffer said in a statement.

    She first talked publicly about the chronic autoimmune disease in 2002 to raise awareness for others living with it.

    Former Star Trek guest star in a backdoor pilot ("Assignment:Earth!" IIRC) that never took off. Gave pathos to wacky parts. Nice person IIUC.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    MoonRabbit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    viewcode said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Frankly I think people writing off SKS at this point are incredibly naïve. You could have taken these posts and transplanted them back to 2020/2021 when people were saying Johnson would be PM for a decade. I think only @Anabobazina and myself were saying otherwise.

    Of course I also thought Jezza would win in 2019 so...

    Starmer is there for the next 4 years plus unless he has a health issue or something entirely unexpected
    Maybe not. Autumn 2027 looking most likely Starmer exit date imo.

    The election won’t be 15th August 2029 as that’s holiday season for sure. Also if 5 party +2 Nats +1 Corbyn Hamas Alliance is still polling strongly in 2028, rather than historic largely 2 party general elections, Labour couldn’t possibly guess what would happen in a year early GE, like Blair could in 2005 with modest poll lead to defend, so it’s for sure going to be a 2029 election.

    I’m 100% confident the date of the General Election is 3rd May 2029. If you want a flutter on the date.

    If in 2027 Starmer is 15%+ behind the Conservatives, he will be removed, late 2027, if conference doesn’t get a poll bounce, in order to give his successor (Reeves) a year and bit in role before the 2029 election.
    Labour has neither a tradition nor a mechanism for ejecting a party leader nor a PM.
    that is true to a point but starmer is no Corbyn or Johnson. He'll know when the writing is on the wall and will leave for the benefit of the party. I'd expect it to be age or health that made him stand down though
    To spend time helping his wife in her new clothes shop.

    Maybe even retreat to an uplands farm and set up a Donkey Sanctuary.
    There’s a gate there that needs sprucing up.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,830
    Just found out that my cousin's funeral is two weeks from Friday

    The last time I saw Tom was at his sister's funeral a few years ago. I'd just done a reading at the service, and he told me that I'd "sounded like a pro, like.someone off the telly"

    So I'm obviously doing a reading for him. Last time I was told what I'd be reading, this time I have to choose. I want to do something for a brother, he was the only boy of my five cousins

    If anyone has any recommendations, please do let me know
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Re: Leon’s post. I did see it at the time but didn’t respond, assuming it was a parody. Maybe I was wrong to make that assumption.

    Sometimes parodies overshoot the line, even when the intent of a parody is to push against it, hence why sin bins exist as halfway measures.
    If we do decide to release Leon we may ban him from talking about things like race, religion, immigration, IQ, travel, food, and AI.

    As the father of mixed race children his comments seriously upset me, I nearly called him the c word but he doesn't have the depth or the warmth.
    That’s fair enough.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    Anabobazina said:

    Remarkable as it might seem, Sir Keir is already 62 years of age. I doubt he would want to fight an election at almost 67. Reeves will be his anointed successor I should think, perhaps with a transfer of power in the autumn of 2027.

    Ask the Americans. He’s a young’n.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793
    kinabalu said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    There's only so long the Republicans can keep getting more votes in Nevada before somebody admits they are winning... 👿
    You can get 1.6 last time I looked

    Fwiw as a Trumpaphobe it's this NV thing I'm most concerned about. Ralston is a bit of a ledge and based on the votes data he's all but calling it for Trump.

    It's only 6 EC votes but that's not the point. If
    NV is going from a 2pt DEM win last time to a comfortable GOP win this time what's that saying about the overall? Hmmm. I know states don't move in unison but still.

    This is probably one of the factors driving the Trump price down in the main market and I'd love to say it's irrational but it isn't really.
    It is possible to believe that Kamala will still win POTUS and not NV, which is why I can approach it with equanimity. Unless somebody offers proof the indies are breaking for Kamala by greater than 55/45 I'm tempted to go for it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    edited October 29
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Just found out that my cousin's funeral is two weeks from Friday

    The last time I saw Tom was at his sister's funeral a few years ago. I'd just done a reading at the service, and he told me that I'd "sounded like a pro, like.someone off the telly"

    So I'm obviously doing a reading for him. Last time I was told what I'd be reading, this time I have to choose. I want to do something for a brother, he was the only boy of my five cousins

    If anyone has any recommendations, please do let me know

    I adapted a version of 'Stop all the clocks' for a friend.

    (Inspired by Four Weddings and a Funeral.)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    Anyhoo the morning thread contains a very subtle cinematic reference in the title.

    I hope people spot it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    ohnotnow said:


    Sad times. Her relatively small part in The Conversation is still my favourite performance of hers.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cje09595v5ko

    “He'd kill us if he got the chance.”

    Ditto Harrison Ford.
    Imagine his alternate career always playing the villain…

    Also Close Encounters. Verging on forgotten now, but massive in the 70s.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Michigan Presidential Polling:

    Harris (D): 52%
    Trump (R): 47%

    Susquehanna / Oct 27, 2024 / n=400
    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1851270330943172772
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    Scott_xP said:

    This is stark

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1851356884487585876

    I was reading this (https://drvincentgreenwood-89455.medium.com/does-donald-trump-show-signs-of-neurodegenerative-disease-871ec668a5f9) the other day and it gives a compelling view on where 'The Donald' is with his "age related cognitive issues". Essentially not full dimentia but the first stages which should worry everyone ifhe is elected.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,243
    edited October 29
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Leon said:

    No. We should aim for zero migration and more white British babies

    I do not want to live in a Britain where white people are a minority. Just as Nigerians do not want to live in a Nigeria where they are a racial minority, nor Japanese likewise in Japan: and fair enough

    We’ve had enough migration. Good fences make good neighbours

    Leon clearly wanted a break, no chance at all he believes this. He might be a total muppet but he's not a racist.
    If someone keeps showing you who they are, believe them.
    Yes but I don't know what Leon is actually like. He's had so many personalities, it's hard to know what he or isn't. I just don't think he's actually a racist, that's all. I think he wrote a very stupid post, in an attempt to garner a reaction. The post was worthy of a ban, I wasn't disputing that. Just that he's not actually a racist.

    He's a troll. A boring troll. But not a racist - and I will stand by that without any more evidence.

    And I absolutely despise the person. Everyone knows that.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695
    I know this breaks all PB rules but it is bugging me - I have to admit I got something wrong on the last thread and I have to own up. I know admitting one is wrong is a no no but there you go. What makes it worse is my post would have been better, shorter, as well as accurate if I had got it right in the first place. Sitting here eating humble pie ironically while watching the bake off.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Eeeew.
    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1851353147349893584
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    There's only so long the Republicans can keep getting more votes in Nevada before somebody admits they are winning... 👿
    You can get 1.6 last time I looked

    Fwiw as a Trumpaphobe it's this NV thing I'm most concerned about. Ralston is a bit of a ledge and based on the votes data he's all but calling it for Trump.

    It's only 6 EC votes but that's not the point. If
    NV is going from a 2pt DEM win last time to a comfortable GOP win this time what's that saying about the overall? Hmmm. I know states don't move in unison but still.

    This is probably one of the factors driving the Trump price down in the main market and I'd love to say it's irrational but it isn't really.
    It is possible to believe that Kamala will still win POTUS and not NV, which is why I can approach it with equanimity. Unless somebody offers proof the indies are breaking for Kamala by greater than 55/45 I'm tempted to go for it.
    Ok go on then. I'll still talk to you.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,243
    I have resigned myself to a Trump victory. America is utterly doomed.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited October 29
    kjh said:

    I know this breaks all PB rules but it is bugging me - I have to admit I got something wrong on the last thread and I have to own up. I know admitting one is wrong is a no no but there you go. What makes it worse is my post would have been better, shorter, as well as accurate if I had got it right in the first place. Sitting here eating humble pie ironically while watching the bake off.

    And it's "pie week" even. On B/Off.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    .
    spudgfsh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This is stark

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1851356884487585876

    I was reading this (https://drvincentgreenwood-89455.medium.com/does-donald-trump-show-signs-of-neurodegenerative-disease-871ec668a5f9) the other day and it gives a compelling view on where 'The Donald' is with his "age related cognitive issues". Essentially not full dimentia but the first stages which should worry everyone ifhe is elected.
    Well, not everyone. Vance will be pleased. Probably Thiel too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    edited October 29
    a
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Re: Leon’s post. I did see it at the time but didn’t respond, assuming it was a parody. Maybe I was wrong to make that assumption.

    Sometimes parodies overshoot the line, even when the intent of a parody is to push against it, hence why sin bins exist as halfway measures.
    If we do decide to release Leon we may ban him from talking about things like race, religion, immigration, IQ, travel, food, and AI.

    As the father of mixed race children his comments seriously upset me, I nearly called him the c word but he doesn't have the depth or the warmth.
    "ban him from talking about things like race, religion, immigration, IQ, travel, food, and AI."

    Hmmmmmmm. So like this -



  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Just found out that my cousin's funeral is two weeks from Friday

    The last time I saw Tom was at his sister's funeral a few years ago. I'd just done a reading at the service, and he told me that I'd "sounded like a pro, like.someone off the telly"

    So I'm obviously doing a reading for him. Last time I was told what I'd be reading, this time I have to choose. I want to do something for a brother, he was the only boy of my five cousins

    If anyone has any recommendations, please
    do let me know


    This is one of my favourites and a little bit different

    https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/45321/crossing-the-bar

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    moonshine said:

    Very interesting pair of posts. I hadn’t realised until I just looked how dominant the Dems were in Congress from the Great Depression until the Millennium. Even Reagan never held the House!

    Sounds like we might be headed for a Rep Senate, narrowly Dem House and who bloody knows on Pres. Something for everyone I suppose.

    The parties had far broader voting bases back then.

    The Dems, as well as being standard centre-left, also had a KKK wing in the southern states.

    The GOP, as well as being standard centre-right, had a liberal wing in the north-east and a southern unionist hillbilly wing in Appalachia.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,707
    Nigelb said:

    ohnotnow said:


    Sad times. Her relatively small part in The Conversation is still my favourite performance of hers.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cje09595v5ko

    “He'd kill us if he got the chance.”

    Ditto Harrison Ford.
    Imagine his alternate career always playing the villain…

    Also Close Encounters. Verging on forgotten now, but massive in the 70s.
    It's amazing now just how dishy Ford was at the time. A few of my female friends who only knew of him as 'late stage' Indiana Jones now have quite the thing for him.

    I also remember an interview with Garr talking about Close Encounters. As I remember at one stage Spielberg wanted the obsessed Richard Dreyfuss to make a 'mud pie' mountain ontop of her boobs (something like that anyway). And she just gave him a steely gaze and said 'WtAf? No.' and that was that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited October 29
    spudgfsh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This is stark

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1851356884487585876

    I was reading this (https://drvincentgreenwood-89455.medium.com/does-donald-trump-show-signs-of-neurodegenerative-disease-871ec668a5f9) the other day and it gives a compelling view on where 'The Donald' is with his "age related cognitive issues". Essentially not full dimentia but the first stages which should worry everyone ifhe is elected.
    He’s long suffered from dimentia.
    Probably since childhood,
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Just found out that my cousin's funeral is two weeks from Friday

    The last time I saw Tom was at his sister's funeral a few years ago. I'd just done a reading at the service, and he told me that I'd "sounded like a pro, like.someone off the telly"

    So I'm obviously doing a reading for him. Last time I was told what I'd be reading, this time I have to choose. I want to do something for a brother, he was the only boy of my five cousins

    If anyone has any recommendations, please do let me know

    I adapted a version of 'Stop all the clocks' for a friend.

    (Inspired by Four Weddings and a Funeral.)
    There’s the Byron one about his cousin on their death. It’s about a woman but not to the extent a minor tweak won’t make it work.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,243
    Just listening to Trump compared to 2020, then 2016, then before, it's remarkable how much he has declined.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,641
    biggles said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Remarkable as it might seem, Sir Keir is already 62 years of age. I doubt he would want to fight an election at almost 67. Reeves will be his anointed successor I should think, perhaps with a transfer of power in the autumn of 2027.

    Ask the Americans. He’s a young’n.
    Proper power does strange things to the brain. He'd be an oddity choosing to go after one term.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    viewcode said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Nevada, I think the Republicans are knocking it out of the park. That’s the obvious inference from early voting.

    But, it does not mean that they will do so in every State.

    I am sticking to my guns and not reading too much into the early voting patterns.
    We are at T-minus 7days and dropping fast. As earlies go it is getting late... ☹️
    Only 2 days left for an October surprise.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866
    Malmesbury said:

    a

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Re: Leon’s post. I did see it at the time but didn’t respond, assuming it was a parody. Maybe I was wrong to make that assumption.

    Sometimes parodies overshoot the line, even when the intent of a parody is to push against it, hence why sin bins exist as halfway measures.
    If we do decide to release Leon we may ban him from talking about things like race, religion, immigration, IQ, travel, food, and AI.

    As the father of mixed race children his comments seriously upset me, I nearly called him the c word but he doesn't have the depth or the warmth.
    "ban him from talking about things like race, religion, immigration, IQ, travel, food, and AI."

    Hmmmmmmm. So like this -



    Is he still allowed to talk about cats, or does that count as food in the Leonverse?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Just listening to Trump compared to 2020, then 2016, then before, it's remarkable how much he has declined.

    Yes, people who think he's no different have not paid attention. And he's older than Biden was last time I think.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Nigelb said:

    Eeeew.
    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1851353147349893584

    I'm just not warming to the guy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    ohnotnow said:

    Nigelb said:

    ohnotnow said:


    Sad times. Her relatively small part in The Conversation is still my favourite performance of hers.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cje09595v5ko

    “He'd kill us if he got the chance.”

    Ditto Harrison Ford.
    Imagine his alternate career always playing the villain…

    Also Close Encounters. Verging on forgotten now, but massive in the 70s.
    It's amazing now just how dishy Ford was at the time. A few of my female friends who only knew of him as 'late stage' Indiana Jones now have quite the thing for him.

    I also remember an interview with Garr talking about Close Encounters. As I remember at one stage Spielberg wanted the obsessed Richard Dreyfuss to make a 'mud pie' mountain ontop of her boobs (something like that anyway). And she just gave him a steely gaze and said 'WtAf? No.' and that was that.
    Dreyfuss was always a bit dodgy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    kyf_100 said:

    Malmesbury said:

    a

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Re: Leon’s post. I did see it at the time but didn’t respond, assuming it was a parody. Maybe I was wrong to make that assumption.

    Sometimes parodies overshoot the line, even when the intent of a parody is to push against it, hence why sin bins exist as halfway measures.
    If we do decide to release Leon we may ban him from talking about things like race, religion, immigration, IQ, travel, food, and AI.

    As the father of mixed race children his comments seriously upset me, I nearly called him the c word but he doesn't have the depth or the warmth.
    "ban him from talking about things like race, religion, immigration, IQ, travel, food, and AI."

    Hmmmmmmm. So like this -



    Is he still allowed to talk about cats, or does that count as food in the Leonverse?
    That's dogs, Shirley?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793

    In case you're wondering how Harris managed to fumble her poll lead 👇 https://t.co/P0xeYk6Mc8

    — Stats for Lefties (@LeftieStats) October 25, 2024
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    kle4 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Just listening to Trump compared to 2020, then 2016, then before, it's remarkable how much he has declined.

    Yes, people who think he's no different have not paid attention. And he's older than Biden was last time I think.
    The comparison with the 80s and 90s Trump is also worth considering.

    Bit like Giuliani...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    So much for disavowing the racist comic.

    Trump about his racist MSG rally just now: "It was a love fest"*

    No explanation, no apology...
    https://x.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1851306753876742587

    *I think he means self-love.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Nigelb said:

    So much for disavowing the racist comic.

    Trump about his racist MSG rally just now: "It was a love fest"*

    No explanation, no apology...
    https://x.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1851306753876742587

    *I think he means self-love.

    To love oneself is the beginning of a lifelong romance.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871
    kle4 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Just listening to Trump compared to 2020, then 2016, then before, it's remarkable how much he has declined.

    Yes, people who think he's no different have not paid attention. And he's older than Biden was last time I think.
    Most of them are well aware of his decline, but they don't care because they think America will be Made Great Again by running it like Russia.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    kle4 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Just listening to Trump compared to 2020, then 2016, then before, it's remarkable how much he has declined.

    Yes, people who think he's no different have not paid attention. And he's older than Biden was last time I think.
    Maybe the sane Republicans should have focused on buttering him up and getting the VP slot…
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    A reminder that the Supreme Court doesn't just automatically do what would favour Trump.

    "Supreme Court rejects RFK Jr. plea to be removed from ballot in two swing states"

    "Former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is now allied with Republican nominee Donald Trump and has sought to take his name from the ballot in some states."

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-rejects-rfk-jr-plea-removed-ballot-two-swing-states-rcna177589
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