New: Josh Shapiro privately pressed Kamala Harris to take up one of his policies aimed at working-class voters — tossing out college degree requirements for government jobs.
In a number of areas the mandatory degree has become a barrier.
I mentioned before the issue of Afro-Caribbean’s in banking. Well guess which community is massively under represented in the degree’s? Not to mention White Working Class and a few other groups.
Back in the day, the literal Barrow Boy route - start with fetch the tea on a desk, could end up a senior manger… This did something for diversity - no, it wasn’t much, but it was something.
I work with a team of people of that background - all in their late forties. No more of them coming through now….
Yes, I posted that yesterday; Trump is threatening to can the subsidy, threatening about $50-60bn of TSMC investment in the US. He's an utter fool.
Sorry, never saw you post it.
He’s an utter idiot for even considering that. It’s exactly the sort of policy he’d be advocating had Biden not done this so that makes it even worse.
The GOP opposed every single Biden industrial subsidy - and many Congress members are now trying to take credit for stuff they voted against. Trump can't even bring himself to do that.
Also infrastructure. See this characteristic community note.
We hate traffic just as much as you do.
We helped secure $195 million—the largest grant in South Carolina's history from the U.S. Department of Transportation—to kick off the Long Point Road Interchange Project https://x.com/RepNancyMace/status/1848756207970095105
"Rep. Nancy Mace voted against the infrastructure act that supplied this funding. "
That is a stunningly innovative use of the term "helped secure".
All this GOP chicanery would be funny if it was in a dark satire - perhaps starring a modern day Peter Sellers - rather than in the flesh and with the real actual America on the line.
Chinese overcapacity floods the international market with cheap steel and aluminum. Their unfair trade practices put Canadian workers at a disadvantage — and we’re taking action.
Starting today, there are 25% tariffs on Chinese-made steel and aluminum imports to Canada.
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
Well done, I sat through a mandated black history month workshop yesterday given by... you guessed it, a white person! It was such a load of nonsense. Enough to make me start looking for another job, I don't think I can stick around here.
Try working in the public sector or 3rd sector where there is even more of it. Of course the Equality Act 2010 does effectively mandate EDI in workplaces
Does it? I've never had to do any of this stuff at work. Despite being one of the few people on here apparently who wouldn't have a fit of the vapours in response.
We have to do inclusivity training. It's some of our better training actually, focusing on treating customers and colleagues as you would want to be treated yourself in the same situation.
Some of it is useful.
Some of it is performative woo.
Some of it is bizarre political theatre.
Some of it reminds me of what Malcolm X said about white liberals.
I agree. But in that case why not improve your training? It can be done well.
Even fairly senior people may not have much influence over the content or quality of the training offer, especially if it is of the performative kind which does not invite feedback. Those who do have influence over it may or may not give a crap, or may be fully on board, so you need the right people at the very top willing to avoid the easy option to just do boilerplate, off the shelf nonsense, and actually make it useful and not a tick box.
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
Surely no one sane thinks Sir Keir would even entertain this. It would be political suicide and Rachel would never be able to cut anything ever again.
There are over 400 Labour MPs, most of whom are basically lobby fodder. If we are to jump up and down anytime anyone of them says anything even remotely controversial we'll all get very tired very quickly.
We do. And we are.
So Labour MPs are now in the group of “alt-right extremists making up non-stories”? Good to know.
At this rate, Reform will consist of the Labour Party, the BBC, the Guardian…
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
One never knows if a genuine swing is under way, or if a party is just cannibalising its vote.
Or how Indys are breaking, or how many of the Regs are defecting.
I'd say that Republican voters for Harris are more numerous than unicorns, but only slightly.
Really? I think there'll be a fair few. And there's the abstain option too.
The GOP candidate is Donald Trump, remember. If I were a Republican (for small state, low tax reasons) I'd struggle to vote for him if I valued democracy and the constitution.
You'd hope so, but Sean F is right about how few Harris Republicans there are in the grand scheme of things, in a place with as many current and former elected officials as the USA. More have come forward in the last couple of weeks, but most of the well known ones have been around for ages, people like Adam Kinzinger, Liz Cheney, Joe Walsh, Geoff Duncan, it has not exactly been a continual drip of big names.
My default assumption is most party waverers return home when push comes to shove, and the question is whether there are enough who will not, to overcome Trump rises among some groups.
It's all on the margins though. There's a big difference between holding say 93% of your base and 90%.
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
We’re going to end up on the hook for billions as SKS will buckle, as @Leon has said a few times.
Best dig deep one and all.
I can't imagine James O'Brien digging into his own pockets to fund reparations.
Has anyone checked his IR35 status ?
There is a case for compensation for Haiti, whose standard of living is dire, and which was very adversely affected by France and the USA, well past the age of slavery.
But, as for member states of Caricom, they have an average GDP per head, of $19,000 (PPP), and every one is is a middle to high income country. I think it would be very hard to sustain O'Brien's argument that somehow, they have been kept poor, as a result of the legacy of slavery. They are well-integrated into the world's economic system.
New: Josh Shapiro privately pressed Kamala Harris to take up one of his policies aimed at working-class voters — tossing out college degree requirements for government jobs.
In a number of areas the mandatory degree has become a barrier.
I mentioned before the issue of Afro-Caribbean’s in banking. Well guess which community is massively under represented in the degree’s? Not to mention White Working Class and a few other groups.
Back in the day, the literal Barrow Boy route - start with fetch the tea on a desk, could end up a senior manger… This did something for diversity - no, it wasn’t much, but it was something.
I work with a team of people of that background - all in their late forties. No more of them coming through now….
Indeed, there are plenty of jobs with a degree 'requirement' which just seems like a status thing, especially when the people in the job currently do not have one! I've seen many job descriptions like that, where nothing in it seems to justify that requirement, yet it is inserted without any question whatsoever.
Just make it desirable rather than a requirement and you immediately open the door to many others.
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
Cheers thanks. Needing a bit of that.
Could equally be bollocks, of course.
No one knows.
+1 until we start seeing the actual results coming out from districts and we can compare those districts to how they voted in 2020/2016 we haven't a clue what the actual result will be.
It's going to be the same as the Brexit vote where we quickly knew the end result because Sunderland had x% more Brexit votes than anyone expected...
While I agree with that in general... it is worth remembering that groups of States are likely to swing together: the rust belt will likely shift together, the South together, etc.
Back in 2016, we saw the opposite moves in Michigan and California, for example.
That said, the big question for me is: when the Florida polls close, is it immediately called for the Republicans?
Judging by the hue of the early vote in Miami. Yes.
& before we cay cubans blah blah - remember Clinton completely crushed Trump there.
The NYTimes Siena polling had Trump up 13 points in Florida, and I suspect it is broadly right.
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
We’re going to end up on the hook for billions as SKS will buckle, as @Leon has said a few times.
Best dig deep one and all.
I can't imagine James O'Brien digging into his own pockets to fund reparations.
Has anyone checked his IR35 status ?
There is a case for compensation for Haiti, whose standard of living is dire, and which was very adversely affected by France and the USA, well past the age of slavery.
But, as for member states of Caricom, they have an average GDP per head, of $19,000 (PPP), and every one is is a middle to high income country. I think it would be very hard to sustain O'Brien's argument that somehow, they have been kept poor, as a result of the legacy of slavery. They are well-integrated into the world's economic system.
Haiti is a state which needs a lot of help indeed - regardless of the root causes of their issues, some of which they share with others, it seems to be in a spiral. Other places are masking demands with moral claims that, if not dubious, are a lot less clear cut than is pretended. And their leaders at least will know that.
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
They have less votes. That's why they are freaking out.
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
Well done, I sat through a mandated black history month workshop yesterday given by... you guessed it, a white person! It was such a load of nonsense. Enough to make me start looking for another job, I don't think I can stick around here.
Try working in the public sector or 3rd sector where there is even more of it. Of course the Equality Act 2010 does effectively mandate EDI in workplaces
Does it? I've never had to do any of this stuff at work. Despite being one of the few people on here apparently who wouldn't have a fit of the vapours in response.
We have to do inclusivity training. It's some of our better training actually, focusing on treating customers and colleagues as you would want to be treated yourself in the same situation.
Some of it is useful.
Some of it is performative woo.
Some of it is bizarre political theatre.
Some of it reminds me of what Malcolm X said about white liberals.
I agree. But in that case why not improve your training? It can be done well.
Shifting people is like shifting sand.
Really senior management says “The box is checked, who gives a fuck?”
The training is seen as opportunity to catch on light sleep.
When I pushed back at that meeting on policy, I was the only one, seemingly, interested in results. As in real results, rather than a self congratulatory PowerPoint in the end of year report.
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
We’re going to end up on the hook for billions as SKS will buckle, as @Leon has said a few times.
Best dig deep one and all.
I can't imagine James O'Brien digging into his own pockets to fund reparations.
Has anyone checked his IR35 status ?
There is a case for compensation for Haiti, whose standard of living is dire, and which was very adversely affected by France and the USA, well past the age of slavery.
But, as for member states of Caricom, they have an average GDP per head, of $19,000 (PPP), and every one is is a middle to high income country. I think it would be very hard to sustain O'Brien's argument that somehow, they have been kept poor, as a result of the legacy of slavery. They are well-integrated into the world's economic system.
Haiti is a state which needs a lot of help indeed - regardless of the root causes of their issues, some of which they share with others, it seems to be in a spiral. Other places are masking demands with moral claims that, if not dubious, are a lot less clear cut than is pretended. And their leaders at least will know that.
Haiti probably needs about 50,000 foreign soldiers and gendarmes, to give its government a chance of establishing workable institutions. Right now, it's in a condition of anarchy.
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
We’re going to end up on the hook for billions as SKS will buckle, as @Leon has said a few times.
Best dig deep one and all.
I can't imagine James O'Brien digging into his own pockets to fund reparations.
Has anyone checked his IR35 status ?
There is a case for compensation for Haiti, whose standard of living is dire, and which was very adversely affected by France and the USA, well past the age of slavery.
But, as for member states of Caricom, they have an average GDP per head, of $19,000 (PPP), and every one is is a middle to high income country. I think it would be very hard to sustain O'Brien's argument that somehow, they have been kept poor, as a result of the legacy of slavery. They are well-integrated into the world's economic system.
Haiti is a state which needs a lot of help indeed - regardless of the root causes of their issues, some of which they share with others, it seems to be in a spiral. Other places are masking demands with moral claims that, if not dubious, are a lot less clear cut than is pretended. And their leaders at least will know that.
Haiti probably needs about 50,000 foreign soldiers, to give its government a chance of establishing workable institutions. Right now, it's in a condition of anarchy.
That would just unite the Haitian factions in fighting the “invaders”
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
Well done, I sat through a mandated black history month workshop yesterday given by... you guessed it, a white person! It was such a load of nonsense. Enough to make me start looking for another job, I don't think I can stick around here.
Try working in the public sector or 3rd sector where there is even more of it. Of course the Equality Act 2010 does effectively mandate EDI in workplaces
Does it? I've never had to do any of this stuff at work. Despite being one of the few people on here apparently who wouldn't have a fit of the vapours in response.
We have to do inclusivity training. It's some of our better training actually, focusing on treating customers and colleagues as you would want to be treated yourself in the same situation.
Some of it is useful.
Some of it is performative woo.
Some of it is bizarre political theatre.
Some of it reminds me of what Malcolm X said about white liberals.
I agree. But in that case why not improve your training? It can be done well.
Shifting people is like shifting sand.
Really senior management says “The box is checked, who gives a fuck?”
The training is seen as opportunity to catch on light sleep.
When I pushed back at that meeting on policy, I was the only one, seemingly, interested in results. As in real results, rather than a self congratulatory PowerPoint in the end of year report.
Our Uni is sh!t scared that a student will top themselves rather than do a presentation (as happened with a Bristol Uni student a couple of years ago). Upshot is vast wasted pointless hours on courses so that the Uni can say we did 'x', should anything go down. It really is about HR being able to show what has been done rather than the genuine outcomes.
As an amusing aside the eternal system of personal tutors has been replaced by the term 'Academic Advisor', which helpfully means I have regular AA meetings with my students - most of whom rarely, if ever drink...
The role is identical, but with a shiny new compliance badge...
Of course, the Russian dead and injured aren't from Moscow and St Petersburg. As seems always to be the case in Russia, it is the poorest provinces that are bearing the cost of the center's ambitions.
But Russia doesn't have an unlimited supply of young men.
In June, 98,600 people were born in Russia. So, rounding, we're talking about 49,000 male babies.
They're losing 30,000 people per month - killed, captured and wounded - in Ukraine.
If you compare this to the British losses on the Western Front in the first World World War, you're looking at around 40,000 male babies per month, against 20,000 casualties.
So, in the First World War, the British were losing the equivalent of half a month's births on the battlefield. The Russians, in Ukraine, are at 60%.
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
They have less votes. That's why they are freaking out.
New: Josh Shapiro privately pressed Kamala Harris to take up one of his policies aimed at working-class voters — tossing out college degree requirements for government jobs.
In a number of areas the mandatory degree has become a barrier.
I mentioned before the issue of Afro-Caribbean’s in banking. Well guess which community is massively under represented in the degree’s? Not to mention White Working Class and a few other groups.
Back in the day, the literal Barrow Boy route - start with fetch the tea on a desk, could end up a senior manger… This did something for diversity - no, it wasn’t much, but it was something.
I work with a team of people of that background - all in their late forties. No more of them coming through now….
Indeed, there are plenty of jobs with a degree 'requirement' which just seems like a status thing, especially when the people in the job currently do not have one! I've seen many job descriptions like that, where nothing in it seems to justify that requirement, yet it is inserted without any question whatsoever.
Just make it desirable rather than a requirement and you immediately open the door to many others.
It’s a policy designed by graduates to bolster their own self importance.
Has there ever been a legal challenge from an applicant not considered for a job purely because they didn’t have a degree, but were suitable in all other respects?
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
Well done, I sat through a mandated black history month workshop yesterday given by... you guessed it, a white person! It was such a load of nonsense. Enough to make me start looking for another job, I don't think I can stick around here.
Try working in the public sector or 3rd sector where there is even more of it. Of course the Equality Act 2010 does effectively mandate EDI in workplaces
Does it? I've never had to do any of this stuff at work. Despite being one of the few people on here apparently who wouldn't have a fit of the vapours in response.
We have to do inclusivity training. It's some of our better training actually, focusing on treating customers and colleagues as you would want to be treated yourself in the same situation.
Some of it is useful.
Some of it is performative woo.
Some of it is bizarre political theatre.
Some of it reminds me of what Malcolm X said about white liberals.
I agree. But in that case why not improve your training? It can be done well.
Shifting people is like shifting sand.
Really senior management says “The box is checked, who gives a fuck?”
The training is seen as opportunity to catch on light sleep.
When I pushed back at that meeting on policy, I was the only one, seemingly, interested in results. As in real results, rather than a self congratulatory PowerPoint in the end of year report.
I get the impression in my place that senior management is bought in, which is probably why the training is good. But, yes, if people just see it as a box to tick it will be a waste of time and actually a missed opportunity
New: Josh Shapiro privately pressed Kamala Harris to take up one of his policies aimed at working-class voters — tossing out college degree requirements for government jobs.
In a number of areas the mandatory degree has become a barrier.
I mentioned before the issue of Afro-Caribbean’s in banking. Well guess which community is massively under represented in the degree’s? Not to mention White Working Class and a few other groups.
Back in the day, the literal Barrow Boy route - start with fetch the tea on a desk, could end up a senior manger… This did something for diversity - no, it wasn’t much, but it was something.
I work with a team of people of that background - all in their late forties. No more of them coming through now….
Indeed, there are plenty of jobs with a degree 'requirement' which just seems like a status thing, especially when the people in the job currently do not have one! I've seen many job descriptions like that, where nothing in it seems to justify that requirement, yet it is inserted without any question whatsoever.
Just make it desirable rather than a requirement and you immediately open the door to many others.
I have for a while being absolutely convinced that the graduatisation of the police is a deliberate and malicious attempt to cut out the main demographic, who would have been the bulk of applicants. White working class young men.
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
One never knows if a genuine swing is under way, or if a party is just cannibalising its vote.
Or how Indys are breaking, or how many of the Regs are defecting.
I'd say that Republican voters for Harris are more numerous than unicorns, but only slightly.
Really? I think there'll be a fair few. And there's the abstain option too.
The GOP candidate is Donald Trump, remember. If I were a Republican (for small state, low tax reasons) I'd struggle to vote for him if I valued democracy and the constitution.
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
One never knows if a genuine swing is under way, or if a party is just cannibalising its vote.
Or how Indys are breaking, or how many of the Regs are defecting.
I'd say that Republican voters for Harris are more numerous than unicorns, but only slightly.
Really? I think there'll be a fair few. And there's the abstain option too.
The GOP candidate is Donald Trump, remember. If I were a Republican (for small state, low tax reasons) I'd struggle to vote for him if I valued democracy and the constitution.
New: Josh Shapiro privately pressed Kamala Harris to take up one of his policies aimed at working-class voters — tossing out college degree requirements for government jobs.
In a number of areas the mandatory degree has become a barrier.
I mentioned before the issue of Afro-Caribbean’s in banking. Well guess which community is massively under represented in the degree’s? Not to mention White Working Class and a few other groups.
Back in the day, the literal Barrow Boy route - start with fetch the tea on a desk, could end up a senior manger… This did something for diversity - no, it wasn’t much, but it was something.
I work with a team of people of that background - all in their late forties. No more of them coming through now….
I worked for John Harvey-Jones for a time. He left school at 16. Joined the Navy.
Yes, I posted that yesterday; Trump is threatening to can the subsidy, threatening about $50-60bn of TSMC investment in the US. He's an utter fool.
Sorry, never saw you post it.
He’s an utter idiot for even considering that. It’s exactly the sort of policy he’d be advocating had Biden not done this so that makes it even worse.
The GOP opposed every single Biden industrial subsidy - and many Congress members are now trying to take credit for stuff they voted against. Trump can't even bring himself to do that.
Also infrastructure. See this characteristic community note.
We hate traffic just as much as you do.
We helped secure $195 million—the largest grant in South Carolina's history from the U.S. Department of Transportation—to kick off the Long Point Road Interchange Project https://x.com/RepNancyMace/status/1848756207970095105
"Rep. Nancy Mace voted against the infrastructure act that supplied this funding. "
That is a stunningly innovative use of the term "helped secure".
All this GOP chicanery would be funny if it was in a dark satire - perhaps starring a modern day Peter Sellers - rather than in the flesh and with the real actual America on the line.
Further note, that's a red state - as with a load of the infrastructure projects. It's not pork barrel, as it bought few if any votes in Congress; just necessary stuff.
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
We’re going to end up on the hook for billions as SKS will buckle, as @Leon has said a few times.
Best dig deep one and all.
I can't imagine James O'Brien digging into his own pockets to fund reparations.
Has anyone checked his IR35 status ?
There is a case for compensation for Haiti, whose standard of living is dire, and which was very adversely affected by France and the USA, well past the age of slavery.
But, as for member states of Caricom, they have an average GDP per head, of $19,000 (PPP), and every one is is a middle to high income country. I think it would be very hard to sustain O'Brien's argument that somehow, they have been kept poor, as a result of the legacy of slavery. They are well-integrated into the world's economic system.
Haiti is a state which needs a lot of help indeed - regardless of the root causes of their issues, some of which they share with others, it seems to be in a spiral. Other places are masking demands with moral claims that, if not dubious, are a lot less clear cut than is pretended. And their leaders at least will know that.
Haiti probably needs about 50,000 foreign soldiers and gendarmes, to give its government a chance of establishing workable institutions. Right now, it's in a condition of anarchy.
As PBers await the First Tuesday After the First Monday in November - with our accustomed dignity and grace - here is brief note re: one of the closest elections in US history = POTUS 1916.
In 1912, Democratic nominee Woodrow Wilson won an easy victory, thanks to the split within the Republican Party between incumbent POTUS William Howard Taft and his predecesor (and former sponsor) Progressive ("Bull Moose") challenger Theodore Roosevelt.
BUT four year later, the GOP was (mostly) reunited, and Wilson was dealing with not just with socio-economic challenges at home, but with World War I in Europe and Revolution in Mexico. Domestically both Wilson and his Republican challenger in 1916, NY Gov. Charles Evans Hughes were both small-p progressives; internationally CEH was more supportive (sorta) of the Entente versus the Central Powers, while WW's campaign slogan was, "he kept us out of war".
The 2016 election result was quite close: Wilson 277 electoral votes & 9.3m popular votes (49.2%) versus 254 ev & 8.5m pv (46.1%) with remaining pv going to Socialist (3.2%), Prohibition (1.2%) and others (0.2%).
On Election Night, most of the Eastern USA went to bed thinking that Charles Evans Hughes has won the election. Including Charles Evans Hughes. Story goes, that a reporter called at his residence early the morning after and asked to speak to CEH. The President is sleeping, said the butler; well, replied the journo, when he wakes up, tell him he's NOT the President".
Why? Because of late returns from the West . . . in particular California
Key state proved to be California, with 17 evs and which Wilson won by margin of +3,373 out of 1m votes cast for President.
Upon which hangs yet ANOTHER famous story. Which concerns Hughes and CA Gov Hiram Johnson. Who was a progressive Republican reformer who in 1912 was Theodore Roosevelt's VP running mate on the "Bull Moose" ticket. Like TR, Johnson had returned to the GOP fold, but he was far less gung-ho that TR; he was also famously irrascible and easily offended, both politically & personally.
So when Hughes was campaigning in California that Autumn, and by chance he and Johnson were at the same hotel, perhaps NOT wise for the GOP nominee to NOT take step to meet with the CA Gov. Which HJ interpreted (perhaps unfairly) as a deliberate snub. Hence neither he nor his considerable political organization in the Great Bear Republic went what you'd call all-out for the top of the Republican ticket . . .
Hang on, Radiohead are rather a good post rock band, a highlight being their sadly unused Bond theme (Spectre, why on earth they opted for the weedy, unoriginal Sam Smith song I'll never know). Whilst Truss is an A1 omnishambles.
Hang on, Radiohead are rather a good post rock band, a highlight being their sadly unused Bond theme (Spectre, why on earth they opted for the weedy, unoriginal Sam Smith song I'll never know). Whilst Truss is an A1 omnishambles.
A post which makes us believe you to be a russian troll bot thinking radiohead is a good band
Comments
I mentioned before the issue of Afro-Caribbean’s in banking. Well guess which community is massively under represented in the degree’s? Not to mention White Working Class and a few other groups.
Back in the day, the literal Barrow Boy route - start with fetch the tea on a desk, could end up a senior manger… This did something for diversity - no, it wasn’t much, but it was something.
I work with a team of people of that background - all in their late forties. No more of them coming through now….
All this GOP chicanery would be funny if it was in a dark satire - perhaps starring a modern day Peter Sellers - rather than in the flesh and with the real actual America on the line.
At this rate, Reform will consist of the Labour Party, the BBC, the Guardian…
But, as for member states of Caricom, they have an average GDP per head, of $19,000 (PPP), and every one is is a middle to high income country. I think it would be very hard to sustain O'Brien's argument that somehow, they have been kept poor, as a result of the legacy of slavery. They are well-integrated into the world's economic system.
Just make it desirable rather than a requirement and you immediately open the door to many others.
The bigger fools are the ones giving this clown repeated benefit of the doubt and ignoring the massive potential downsides if they are wrong.
There's a great article from Nate Cohn at NYTimes about Florida, and about why their polling there is so different from the same firm's polling in Pennsylvania etc: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/upshot/florida-poll-harris-trump.html
"The very idea of it makes my blood boil."
This is the essence of a lot of what we're seeing.
Really senior management says “The box is checked, who gives a fuck?”
The training is seen as opportunity to catch on light sleep.
When I pushed back at that meeting on policy, I was the only one, seemingly, interested in results. As in real results, rather than a self congratulatory PowerPoint in the end of year report.
I think you want to see this post about Trafalgar methodology https://nitter.poast.org/Domahhhh/status/1848540229998899319#m
As an amusing aside the eternal system of personal tutors has been replaced by the term 'Academic Advisor', which helpfully means I have regular AA meetings with my students - most of whom rarely, if ever drink...
The role is identical, but with a shiny new compliance badge...
But Russia doesn't have an unlimited supply of young men.
In June, 98,600 people were born in Russia. So, rounding, we're talking about 49,000 male babies.
They're losing 30,000 people per month - killed, captured and wounded - in Ukraine.
If you compare this to the British losses on the Western Front in the first World World War, you're looking at around 40,000 male babies per month, against 20,000 casualties.
So, in the First World War, the British were losing the equivalent of half a month's births on the battlefield. The Russians, in Ukraine, are at 60%.
NEW THREAD
Has there ever been a legal challenge from an applicant not considered for a job purely because they didn’t have a degree, but were suitable in all other respects?
Why Haiti is Dying & the DR is Booming
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpWb3MTV9bg
It was only 44 minutes on the difference between Yemen and Oman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbHG-NrmEZI
Where will those voters go?
https://www.haleyvotersforharris.org/
It doesn't mean it's not a catastrophically bad idea.
In 1912, Democratic nominee Woodrow Wilson won an easy victory, thanks to the split within the Republican Party between incumbent POTUS William Howard Taft and his predecesor (and former sponsor) Progressive ("Bull Moose") challenger Theodore Roosevelt.
BUT four year later, the GOP was (mostly) reunited, and Wilson was dealing with not just with socio-economic challenges at home, but with World War I in Europe and Revolution in Mexico. Domestically both Wilson and his Republican challenger in 1916, NY Gov. Charles Evans Hughes were both small-p progressives; internationally CEH was more supportive (sorta) of the Entente versus the Central Powers, while WW's campaign slogan was, "he kept us out of war".
The 2016 election result was quite close: Wilson 277 electoral votes & 9.3m popular votes (49.2%) versus 254 ev & 8.5m pv (46.1%) with remaining pv going to Socialist (3.2%), Prohibition (1.2%) and others (0.2%).
On Election Night, most of the Eastern USA went to bed thinking that Charles Evans Hughes has won the election. Including Charles Evans Hughes. Story goes, that a reporter called at his residence early the morning after and asked to speak to CEH. The President is sleeping, said the butler; well, replied the journo, when he wakes up, tell him he's NOT the President".
Why? Because of late returns from the West . . . in particular California
Key state proved to be California, with 17 evs and which Wilson won by margin of +3,373 out of 1m votes cast for President.
Upon which hangs yet ANOTHER famous story. Which concerns Hughes and CA Gov Hiram Johnson. Who was a progressive Republican reformer who in 1912 was Theodore Roosevelt's VP running mate on the "Bull Moose" ticket. Like TR, Johnson had returned to the GOP fold, but he was far less gung-ho that TR; he was also famously irrascible and easily offended, both politically & personally.
So when Hughes was campaigning in California that Autumn, and by chance he and Johnson were at the same hotel, perhaps NOT wise for the GOP nominee to NOT take step to meet with the CA Gov. Which HJ interpreted (perhaps unfairly) as a deliberate snub. Hence neither he nor his considerable political organization in the Great Bear Republic went what you'd call all-out for the top of the Republican ticket . . .
First Chagos, now reparations.
I can’t think of another country like it, so utterly lacking in self-confidence.
Though let’s not pretend this started with Keir.
Great to have you on side as someone who sees this.