Has it come up that long term gilfts are now higher than under dear old Liz, and we've notably diverged in last few weeks as investors spot what Labour are planning?
Yes, a few times, but as it’s labour it’s not a problem and interest rates are higher now.
Biden should have stood down a lot earlier to give Harris more time to prepare for the election.
Biden should have stood by his promise in 2020 to be a bridge to future generations and prepared the way for a high-quality primary contest to find his successor.
Some of us said this at the time and pointed out that Biden was obviously fucking gaga, and would end up resigning at the worst time, meaning the Dems would be left with Kamala as a far less than optimum candidate
But the Regiment of Centrist Idiot Dads on PB went into full on denial. “Biden is fine”, “he likes falling over”, “he’s always dribbled a lot”. And here we are
This would not have mattered if the actual US Democrats weren’t as feebly stupid as the PB Centrist Dads. But it seems they are
Especially when the same sort of thing had happened previously with Ruth Bader Ginsburg in 2020.
So, @Andy_JS, who did Leon put down as Dem nominee in your beginning of year predictions comp, then?
You must be mixing me up with someone else, I didn't run a predictions comp.
Just going to add into the mix that the River Thames is the cleanest river going through any large conurbation in the world. Thames Water might be run by a bunch of spivs who have used all kinds of financial instruments to avoid taxation which is crashing down around them, but at their core job they have played a blinder. Unpopular opinion/fact: the UK has *the* cleanest water in the world (well in fact its joint clean with a few nordic countries), has the cleanest beaches it ever has had (some way to go compared to seaside tourist countries who have seen a clean coast as more of a priority, and the rivers in general are top notch.
There was a scientist in the field on recently who said exactly this. We have confused vastly increased knowledge of a problem (yes, we do still have a pollution problem with our water) to be conflated into a mirage that our water quality has become substantially worse in recent times, which is not really true. Many of our larger rivers were dead zones for many years owing to pollution - this is vastly improved and wildlife has returned. We have issues around agricultural run-off, certain drugs entering the rivers from sewers and a lack of capacity when we get (seemingly increasingly frequently) heavy rain. All of these need to be tackled, but the idea that somehow our rivers are worse than they were say 25 years ago is simply not true.
Interestingly, this is what the guy who was doing the lifeguarding for the Hammersmith wild swimmers said. He does the water quality tests before each outing, so he would know.
Chemical pollution has collapsed, which means that people are using the river more. Which means, in turn they are more aware of the solution that remains.
Yes yes yes... Ive gone blue in the face so many times trying to explain how water (and air) quality improvements are an example of how public policy can improve things. And yes, agricultural run off is the one big bogeyman still out there, and that sticks out because all the other stuff is so much cleaner.
What we need to do is carry on rachetting up the quality standards. Around the world, this process of steadily tightening standards has reaped massive, tangible benefits.
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
It is the best existence, if you can hack it. Life becomes a fountain, a wild Heraclitean fire, a glittering cataract of constant change and beautiful newness
Alternatively you could be a mid level banker in Sheffield or maybe a retired accountant in Gospel Oak, with the occasional trip to Tenerife, and then you die
There is something very precious about "coming home". Not as in to your family - although I'm sure that is good also - but to wherever you believe is home in a socio-cultural-political sense. Without invoking "citizens of nowhere", nevertheless to be always travelling is certainly great for new experiences and broadening the mind (not 100% sure how broadened your mind will be after a trip to rural Japan, that said) but, as Lau Tse and indeed Kant as we have just heard, attest, you can gain enlightenment by never leaving your village.
Sure you go to see the wonders of the world but without a solid anchor then it is just ephemera and a new hit for the sake of a new hit with the only groundedness happening when you have to distil the experience such that a retired colonel (or now as you assure us Bright Young Thing) Speccie reader will relate to it.
But that part is critical. And paradoxical. You are bringing new experiences to those people who have a sense of place and belonging, thereby expanding their minds, while you yourself, who largely eschew place and belonging are unable likewise to benefit.
Not by any means a criticism, just an observation. And of course you do it so well. So enjoy.
It is the best existence, if you can hack it. Life becomes a fountain, a wild Heraclitean fire, a glittering cataract of constant change and beautiful newness
Alternatively you could be a mid level banker in Sheffield or maybe a retired accountant in Gospel Oak, with the occasional trip to Tenerife, and then you die
There is something very precious about "coming home". Not as in to your family - although I'm sure that is good also - but to wherever you believe is home in a socio-cultural-political sense. Without invoking "citizens of nowhere", nevertheless to be always travelling is certainly great for new experiences and broadening the mind (not 100% sure how broadened your mind will be after a trip to rural Japan, that said) but, as Lau Tse and indeed Kant as we have just heard, attest, you can gain enlightenment by never leaving your village.
Sure you go to see the wonders of the world but without a solid anchor then it is just ephemera and a new hit for the sake of a new hit with the only groundedness happening when you have to distil the experience such that a retired colonel (or now as you assure us Bright Young Thing) Speccie reader will relate to it.
But that part is critical. And paradoxical. You are bringing new experiences to those people who have a sense of place and belonging, thereby expanding their minds, while you yourself, who largely eschew place and belonging are unable likewise to benefit.
Not by any means a criticism, just an observation. And of course you do it so well. So enjoy.
A fair and articulate point
For all my travels I do still have a home - or rather, a nest of homes. I’m a white Anglo-Celtic European with great loyalties to Britain, England, London, Cornwall, Christianity, whiteness, the Enlightenment, Herefordshire, Regents Park
That’s me. My identity and my sense of “home”. And yes it is nice to come home. But I couldn’t do a what3words on where home is, except maybe my kitchen in Camden cooking a laksa with a g&t on the go and good music on Alexa and a friend to meet in the Groucho tomorrow
I’m happy to do that four times a year, then light out again
It turns out that appalling cliche is true. The best friends are the ones you meet on the way to somewhere else
I dispute that last bit. A best friend is someone you know you can call and tell all to when you need to tell someone all. And for it to land. That is, you can tell all to the person sitting next to you on the train to Siem Reap but it won't mean anything. Might as well tell your shaving mirror. Or the moon. A best friend, like home, anchors you to the world and provides a platform wherefrom you can fly. Without that platform it is ephemera. A series of experiences rather than an accumulation.
But that is a) I think who you are and that again is far from a criticism or judgement; and b) none of my business.
So Trump, eh...
You misconstrue
I was using friends in a different sense
I am blessed with 7 or 8 friends (more or less) like you describe. Sadly one or two are now seriously ill. Age, ah, my god
The misunderstanding is my fault. What I meant is: some of the most profound human connections you can make are often the most transient
What makes a human connection profound. I believe it is when you are affected to a very great deal and then can consolidate that feeling with the person concerned. Otherwise it's like reading one of those "It's Wine O'Clock Somewhere" table mats in novelty/gift shops. Human interaction is indeed profound but it's not a connection if it's not a connection.
Suppose you meet the love of your life on a six-hour train journey then you never see each other again. I don't think that is profound. Or rather, it is of course your profound. To me, however, which echoes my thoughts about, and perhaps our conflicting attitudes to home, it is ephemera.
It is the best existence, if you can hack it. Life becomes a fountain, a wild Heraclitean fire, a glittering cataract of constant change and beautiful newness
Alternatively you could be a mid level banker in Sheffield or maybe a retired accountant in Gospel Oak, with the occasional trip to Tenerife, and then you die
There is something very precious about "coming home". Not as in to your family - although I'm sure that is good also - but to wherever you believe is home in a socio-cultural-political sense. Without invoking "citizens of nowhere", nevertheless to be always travelling is certainly great for new experiences and broadening the mind (not 100% sure how broadened your mind will be after a trip to rural Japan, that said) but, as Lau Tse and indeed Kant as we have just heard, attest, you can gain enlightenment by never leaving your village.
Sure you go to see the wonders of the world but without a solid anchor then it is just ephemera and a new hit for the sake of a new hit with the only groundedness happening when you have to distil the experience such that a retired colonel (or now as you assure us Bright Young Thing) Speccie reader will relate to it.
But that part is critical. And paradoxical. You are bringing new experiences to those people who have a sense of place and belonging, thereby expanding their minds, while you yourself, who largely eschew place and belonging are unable likewise to benefit.
Not by any means a criticism, just an observation. And of course you do it so well. So enjoy.
It is the best existence, if you can hack it. Life becomes a fountain, a wild Heraclitean fire, a glittering cataract of constant change and beautiful newness
Alternatively you could be a mid level banker in Sheffield or maybe a retired accountant in Gospel Oak, with the occasional trip to Tenerife, and then you die
There is something very precious about "coming home". Not as in to your family - although I'm sure that is good also - but to wherever you believe is home in a socio-cultural-political sense. Without invoking "citizens of nowhere", nevertheless to be always travelling is certainly great for new experiences and broadening the mind (not 100% sure how broadened your mind will be after a trip to rural Japan, that said) but, as Lau Tse and indeed Kant as we have just heard, attest, you can gain enlightenment by never leaving your village.
Sure you go to see the wonders of the world but without a solid anchor then it is just ephemera and a new hit for the sake of a new hit with the only groundedness happening when you have to distil the experience such that a retired colonel (or now as you assure us Bright Young Thing) Speccie reader will relate to it.
But that part is critical. And paradoxical. You are bringing new experiences to those people who have a sense of place and belonging, thereby expanding their minds, while you yourself, who largely eschew place and belonging are unable likewise to benefit.
Not by any means a criticism, just an observation. And of course you do it so well. So enjoy.
A fair and articulate point
For all my travels I do still have a home - or rather, a nest of homes. I’m a white Anglo-Celtic European with great loyalties to Britain, England, London, Cornwall, Christianity, whiteness, the Enlightenment, Herefordshire, Regents Park
That’s me. My identity and my sense of “home”. And yes it is nice to come home. But I couldn’t do a what3words on where home is, except maybe my kitchen in Camden cooking a laksa with a g&t on the go and good music on Alexa and a friend to meet in the Groucho tomorrow
I’m happy to do that four times a year, then light out again
It turns out that appalling cliche is true. The best friends are the ones you meet on the way to somewhere else
I dispute that last bit. A best friend is someone you know you can call and tell all to when you need to tell someone all. And for it to land. That is, you can tell all to the person sitting next to you on the train to Siem Reap but it won't mean anything. Might as well tell your shaving mirror. Or the moon. A best friend, like home, anchors you to the world and provides a platform wherefrom you can fly. Without that platform it is ephemera. A series of experiences rather than an accumulation.
But that is a) I think who you are and that again is far from a criticism or judgement; and b) none of my business.
So Trump, eh...
You misconstrue
I was using friends in a different sense
I am blessed with 7 or 8 friends (more or less) like you describe. Sadly one or two are now seriously ill. Age, ah, my god
The misunderstanding is my fault. What I meant is: some of the most profound human connections you can make are often the most transient
What makes a human connection profound. I believe it is when you are affected to a very great deal and then can consolidate that feeling with the person concerned. Otherwise it's like reading one of those "It's Wine O'Clock Somewhere" table mats in novelty/gift shops. Human interaction is indeed profound but it's not a connection if it's not a connection.
Suppose you meet the love of your life on a six-hour train journey then you never see each other again. I don't think that is profound. Or rather, it is of course your profound. To me, however, which echoes my thoughts about, and perhaps our conflicting attitudes to home, it is ephemera.
Completely disagree. Some of my best fucks have been one night stands where we didn’t even remember each other’s name
The transience is KEY. The ephemerality is the POINT. However I accept this is likely above your intellectual pay grade so I won’t push it
Very uncalled for. You crave attention here, so best not to insult someone (completely unnecessarily) who was giving you what you want.
Travel is great, but from what I can see not always consistent with raising a family. Whilst I sincerely hope it works for people, I know lots of people who had a hard time changing schools, losing good friends and never building relationships with close relatives. Some are quite damaged by that. Some of saddest stories I encounter are grown up kids not being able to say goodbye to parents who get sick on the other side of the world.
As with most things in life , balance and timing seem to apply to travel.
Rural Japanese towns are brilliant. Everyone is about 87 years old but they love drinking and they do it in tiny izakayas run by 95 year old women and their 307 year old fathers and they serve “drinking food” which quite frankly is haute cuisine anywhere else in the world and it’s all done in a low slung tiny bar with one weird dude who likes big titted Colombian girls obsessively talking to himself in the corner so it’s like PB except @Scott_P is talking about Colombian girls rather than Brexit
Eg tonight I had skewered beef hearts, deep fried shark cheeks and “firefly fish in soy”
(Bioluminescent fish served with daikon)
Then we had pickled cheese omelette tofu dancing steaks
My guide Ayato toasting me after I introduced him to Claude
Has it come up that long term gilfts are now higher than under dear old Liz, and we've notably diverged in last few weeks as investors spot what Labour are planning?
Yes, a few times, but as it’s labour it’s not a problem and interest rates are higher now.
I’m reassured there’s nothing to worry about !
Didn't the FT have an article which also mentioned Gold on this, the other day.
The gist was something to do with geopolitical worries, but I'd have to dig it out from somewhere.
I do like this comment online because I'm sure we've all been guilty of it ourselves at some point as well. Saying you do not agree can itself form such a conversation, if views are that clear cut about something nothing is being gained by 'extending' it beyond that however. https://nitter.poast.org/BDSixsmith/status/1849778864563638740#m
"You're just not engaging. You're arguing with a caricature of what I said rather than what I actually said. What's the point? I mean, seriously, what's the point?"
That is certainly one way it goes, lack of good faith can go both ways. But I feel there is a fundamental point that we often claim to want 'conversation' when we want nothing of the kind, particularly when we are looking for affirmation on social media.
It's like when politicians object to their opponents playing politics (who else is supposed to play it if not politicians?) or arguing that they want division. I mean, yeah, I like people to come together as much as the next guy, but politics is our way of dividing ourselves on some topics in a reasonable way.
“The Brics countries are now a larger part of the global economy than the G7 countries. According to EY, Brics makes up around 36.7% of the global economy on a purchasing power parity basis while the G7 makes up only 27.5%.”
Among the international financial elite Truss's name (plus "episode" or "moment" or "debacle") will forever be the term for an unforced fiscal error that precipitates a spike in bond yields and almost triggers a full on financial crisis. Her name has come up many times here in DC this week. Sadly it's pretty much the only time the UK is mentioned. The whole episode has become a cautionary tale. Perhaps a kind of global public good, like world peace or a liveable planet. Avoid the "Truss moment", children.
It is obvious to anyone and everyone that what is meant is that working people won't pay more taxes on their wages.
Who gives a shit anyway. I'm totally uninterested in budget speculation. You can't bet on it and there's only a few days to wait before we know what's in it.
Well, yes, but people are weighing up whether to make adjustments in anticipation of what might happen, and I think this is understandable and damaging.
If, for example, a person is 60 and planning to retire in, say, 2 or 3 years time, do they crystallise their pension now and release their tax free cash or do they risk it?
I guess that is betting on it in a sense. But yes ok it's probably just because the US is consuming all my mental energy atm. Eg I even struggled to get into Bake Off on Tuesday.
That hairy young skateboarder is going to win isn't he? (I've taken against him because my daughter fancies him.)
Unusually open this one, I'd say. But yes I'd make him about a 5/2 fav.
Has it come up that long term gilfts are now higher than under dear old Liz, and we've notably diverged in last few weeks as investors spot what Labour are planning?
Yes, it has been noted in the city. There was a bond rally on Wednesday that the UK didn't benefit from. There's a realisation that there's going to be a huge increase in gilt supply over the next 5 years so bond prices are falling despite the likelihood of interest rates dropping to ~2.5% within the next year or so.
Thank goodness our mortgage market is more competitive than theirs lol.
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
I attended an actually decent session (for such things), as it felt like an actual conversation with some practical examples of things that could (not must) be considered, and an admission of difficulties with some in practice (how do you give consideration to someone's cultural background in how they are responding at interview, without presuming what their background is based on characteristics like race or name?), so it was reasonably positive.
But I did challenge them strongly after the playing of a video which was just a propaganda piece, which directly said that working hard was (not could be, was) a sign of trying to make up for childhoold trauma, and a bunch of openly anti-capitalist sloganeering. Whether everyone felt the same way as me I cannot say, but certainly a number of others agreed vocally - it was very out of character for me to speak up about such a thing but it was so insulting I cannot think why the otherwise decent presenters used it.
I actually nuked the inclusion clowns at my bank - from the other direction.
I pointed out that their policies didn't include anything to deal with the issue of non-degreed people. Or the fact that there were zero hires from the long term UK located Afro-Carribean community. And that inviting people to bring children of *friends* to the bank to learn about it and get internships was the reverse of inclusion.
By the end of it, they just sat there.
I like to go in to such things with an open mind, and it is usually pretty clear early on if the people involved are sincere and looking to have a dialogue, or if they regard it as a performance piece. The materials used can be a mixture, as in my example it was mostly actually relevant information about the employer and the issues, but apparently someone could not help but include some external source they probably just found online (from a clearly american source to boot) and presumably thought was cool (it literally included talk about how it is ok to be lazy, so I feel like senior management cannot possibly have endorsed that).
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
One never knows if a genuine swing is under way, or if a party is just cannibalising its vote.
Being a Japanese opposition politician feels like a very frustrating choice to make, when the real Opposition is within the factions of the LDP (albeit there is some thought they possibly might not get a majority outright this time).
Indeed, last time Japan had a change of government was 2008 when the Democratic party won and doesn't look like changing on Sunday either
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
I attended an actually decent session (for such things), as it felt like an actual conversation with some practical examples of things that could (not must) be considered, and an admission of difficulties with some in practice (how do you give consideration to someone's cultural background in how they are responding at interview, without presuming what their background is based on characteristics like race or name?), so it was reasonably positive.
But I did challenge them strongly after the playing of a video which was just a propaganda piece, which directly said that working hard was (not could be, was) a sign of trying to make up for childhoold trauma, and a bunch of openly anti-capitalist sloganeering. Whether everyone felt the same way as me I cannot say, but certainly a number of others agreed vocally - it was very out of character for me to speak up about such a thing but it was so insulting I cannot think why the otherwise decent presenters used it.
I actually nuked the inclusion clowns at my bank - from the other direction.
I pointed out that their policies didn't include anything to deal with the issue of non-degreed people. Or the fact that there were zero hires from the long term UK located Afro-Carribean community. And that inviting people to bring children of *friends* to the bank to learn about it and get internships was the reverse of inclusion.
By the end of it, they just sat there.
I like to go in to such things with an open mind, and it is usually pretty clear early on if the people involved are sincere and looking to have a dialogue, or if they regard it as a performance piece. The materials used can be a mixture, as in my example it was mostly actually relevant information about the employer and the issues, but apparently someone could not help but include some external source they probably just found online (from a clearly american source to boot) and presumably thought was cool (it literally included talk about how it is ok to be lazy, so I feel like senior management cannot possibly have endorsed that).
In the case of my bank, I think the were sincere, but thought that ideological purity was a substitute for actually knowing what they were doing.
Someone said to me 'How can you doubt our motives?" - when I questioned their *actions*.
"Well, as John F. Kennedy said, we must not negotiate out of fear and we must not fear to negotiate," she replied. "So, if you want to be an effective world leader, you don't start by name-calling and hurling epithets."
"So, how will President Stein negotiate with Israel then if you've called Netanyahu a war criminal?" Hasan asked in response.
"Well, because he very clearly is a war criminal," Stein said, prompting Hasan to ask: "So Putin clearly isn't a war criminal?"
"Well, we don't have a decision—put it this way—by the International Criminal Court," Stein said.
The ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin, alleging that he is responsible for war crimes. No such warrant has been issued for Netanyahu*..
(*Though one was requested by a prosecutor shortly after this interview.)
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
Well done, I sat through a mandated black history month workshop yesterday given by... you guessed it, a white person! It was such a load of nonsense. Enough to make me start looking for another job, I don't think I can stick around here.
Try working in the public sector or 3rd sector where there is even more of it. Of course the Equality Act 2010 does effectively mandate EDI in workplaces
Has it come up that long term gilfts are now higher than under dear old Liz, and we've notably diverged in last few weeks as investors spot what Labour are planning?
Yes, a few times, but as it’s labour it’s not a problem and interest rates are higher now.
I’m reassured there’s nothing to worry about !
Didn't the FT have an article which also mentioned Gold on this, the other day.
The gist was something to do with geopolitical worries, but I'd have to dig it out from somewhere.
It may well have done. Could be to do with this interview.
Last poll (9/26-10/6) - 🔵 Harris+3 —— FULL FIELD 🟥 Trump: 47% 🟦 Harris: 46% 🟩 Stein: 2% 🟪 Other: 2%
Last poll - 🔵 Harris +3 —— Crosstabs (2-way) • Did not vote in 2020: Trump 47-43% • Biden 2020 voters: Harris 92-5% • Trump 2020 voters: Trump 97-2%
No, though she might cost her the popular vote. On those numbers Trump would likely win the EC either way, though Fox found Harris doing better in battlegrounds and it could be that some leftwingers vote for Stein in safe blue or red states but in swing states stick with Harris
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
Well done, I sat through a mandated black history month workshop yesterday given by... you guessed it, a white person! It was such a load of nonsense. Enough to make me start looking for another job, I don't think I can stick around here.
Umming and ahhinng about telling the Black History Month workshop that this workshop is wasted on me because I had a lot of black friends growing up, well I did until my father sold them.
Travel is great, but from what I can see not always consistent with raising a family. Whilst I sincerely hope it works for people, I know lots of people who had a hard time changing schools, losing good friends and never building relationships with close relatives. Some are quite damaged by that. Some of saddest stories I encounter are grown up kids not being able to say goodbye to parents who get sick on the other side of the world.
As with most things in life , balance and timing seem to apply to travel.
Both my wife and I moved countries as children/teens and as a result we have stayed put while raising our kids (we moved back to the UK when our eldest was 4). I really think it's good for children to have a stable base growing up. I do know people who have done the exact opposite and it has worked out well for them, but I think you need to work really hard to make that turn out ok.
Last poll (9/26-10/6) - 🔵 Harris+3 —— FULL FIELD 🟥 Trump: 47% 🟦 Harris: 46% 🟩 Stein: 2% 🟪 Other: 2%
Last poll - 🔵 Harris +3 —— Crosstabs (2-way) • Did not vote in 2020: Trump 47-43% • Biden 2020 voters: Harris 92-5% • Trump 2020 voters: Trump 97-2%
No, though she might cost her the popular vote. On those numbers Trump would likely win the EC either way, though Fox found Harris doing better in battlegrounds and it could be that some leftwingers vote for Stein in safe blue or red states but in swing states stick with Harris
Dems learning their lesson from 2016 and winning in the battlegrounds even as they lose the popular vote would be a heck of an outcome to see.
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
I attended an actually decent session (for such things), as it felt like an actual conversation with some practical examples of things that could (not must) be considered, and an admission of difficulties with some in practice (how do you give consideration to someone's cultural background in how they are responding at interview, without presuming what their background is based on characteristics like race or name?), so it was reasonably positive.
But I did challenge them strongly after the playing of a video which was just a propaganda piece, which directly said that working hard was (not could be, was) a sign of trying to make up for childhoold trauma, and a bunch of openly anti-capitalist sloganeering. Whether everyone felt the same way as me I cannot say, but certainly a number of others agreed vocally - it was very out of character for me to speak up about such a thing but it was so insulting I cannot think why the otherwise decent presenters used it.
I actually nuked the inclusion clowns at my bank - from the other direction.
I pointed out that their policies didn't include anything to deal with the issue of non-degreed people. Or the fact that there were zero hires from the long term UK located Afro-Carribean community. And that inviting people to bring children of *friends* to the bank to learn about it and get internships was the reverse of inclusion.
By the end of it, they just sat there.
I like to go in to such things with an open mind, and it is usually pretty clear early on if the people involved are sincere and looking to have a dialogue, or if they regard it as a performance piece. The materials used can be a mixture, as in my example it was mostly actually relevant information about the employer and the issues, but apparently someone could not help but include some external source they probably just found online (from a clearly american source to boot) and presumably thought was cool (it literally included talk about how it is ok to be lazy, so I feel like senior management cannot possibly have endorsed that).
In the case of my bank, I think the were sincere, but thought that ideological purity was a substitute for actually knowing what they were doing.
Someone said to me 'How can you doubt our motives?" - when I questioned their *actions*.
Looking at the early voting stats in some of the states that break it down by party registration (usual caveats apply re cannibalisation of the vote / party ID not necessarily meaning vote for the party.
In N Carolina, 2.3m have already voted - Republicans leading the early voters by 16K. Probably more concerning for the Democrats is that the percentage of Black voters is running several points below the electoral weighting (around 17%);
The Republicans are around 300K ahead in Florida (1.48m v 1.18n);
Still a big D lead in PA - 60 vs 30% on the vote. Mail ballot return rate running significantly ahead of Republicans across most counties.
Arizona - over 1m votes cast and the Republicans are up by around 80K
Ralston in NV is now saying the early returns do not look great for 2 of the NV D-held House seats. This raises a question. At what point - if any - does the message from the Democrats shift from pushing Harris for President to implicitly pushing for a split Congress to protect the US against Trump. There is an interesting choice to be made over the next 10 days or so.
Unsurprising that the shiniest new fab by the world's experts in this stuff is their best yet.
People are still thinking in terms of onshoring chip production as a pivot away from China. But consider the following scenario.
1a) China invades 2a) Taiwan blows up the chip fabs 3a) America is left with the world production of the advanced chips. They can stop the Chinese economy, in large areas. No, you can't smuggle in enough chips to keep it going, even if sanctions leak. Which they always do.
America could impose a horrific price on China.
As opposed to
1b) China invades 2b) Taiwan blows up the chip fabs 3b) Everyone is fucked
or
1c) China invades 2c) Taiwan doesn't blows up the chip fabs 3c) China gets to tell everyone what to do. Including the US.
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
Well done, I sat through a mandated black history month workshop yesterday given by... you guessed it, a white person! It was such a load of nonsense. Enough to make me start looking for another job, I don't think I can stick around here.
Try working in the public sector or 3rd sector where there is even more of it. Of course the Equality Act 2010 does effectively mandate EDI in workplaces
Does it? I've never had to do any of this stuff at work. Despite being one of the few people on here apparently who wouldn't have a fit of the vapours in response.
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
I attended an actually decent session (for such things), as it felt like an actual conversation with some practical examples of things that could (not must) be considered, and an admission of difficulties with some in practice (how do you give consideration to someone's cultural background in how they are responding at interview, without presuming what their background is based on characteristics like race or name?), so it was reasonably positive.
But I did challenge them strongly after the playing of a video which was just a propaganda piece, which directly said that working hard was (not could be, was) a sign of trying to make up for childhoold trauma, and a bunch of openly anti-capitalist sloganeering. Whether everyone felt the same way as me I cannot say, but certainly a number of others agreed vocally - it was very out of character for me to speak up about such a thing but it was so insulting I cannot think why the otherwise decent presenters used it.
I actually nuked the inclusion clowns at my bank - from the other direction.
I pointed out that their policies didn't include anything to deal with the issue of non-degreed people. Or the fact that there were zero hires from the long term UK located Afro-Carribean community. And that inviting people to bring children of *friends* to the bank to learn about it and get internships was the reverse of inclusion.
By the end of it, they just sat there.
I like to go in to such things with an open mind, and it is usually pretty clear early on if the people involved are sincere and looking to have a dialogue, or if they regard it as a performance piece. The materials used can be a mixture, as in my example it was mostly actually relevant information about the employer and the issues, but apparently someone could not help but include some external source they probably just found online (from a clearly american source to boot) and presumably thought was cool (it literally included talk about how it is ok to be lazy, so I feel like senior management cannot possibly have endorsed that).
In the case of my bank, I think the were sincere, but thought that ideological purity was a substitute for actually knowing what they were doing.
Someone said to me 'How can you doubt our motives?" - when I questioned their *actions*.
My response to "Ethical investment", "Diversity and Inclusion", "Corporate Social Responsibility" "Sustainability" is along the lines of "the louder he spoke of his honour, the faster we counted our spoons."
The evidence still suggests a dead heat. My instinct suggests Trump might shade the swing states, and he could take them all by a percentage point. But I am a natural pessimist in contrast to the PB Trump wishcasters who are convinced he is already a shoo in.
So 269-269 and it goes to the House where Trump likely wins?
It is highly unlikely to be 269-269 as Harris is clearly ahead in Nebraska 02 polls, helped by Walz being born in Nebraska.
270 Harris to 268 Trump looks possible though, maybe with Trump even winning the popular vote too https://www.270towin.com/
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
I attended an actually decent session (for such things), as it felt like an actual conversation with some practical examples of things that could (not must) be considered, and an admission of difficulties with some in practice (how do you give consideration to someone's cultural background in how they are responding at interview, without presuming what their background is based on characteristics like race or name?), so it was reasonably positive.
But I did challenge them strongly after the playing of a video which was just a propaganda piece, which directly said that working hard was (not could be, was) a sign of trying to make up for childhoold trauma, and a bunch of openly anti-capitalist sloganeering. Whether everyone felt the same way as me I cannot say, but certainly a number of others agreed vocally - it was very out of character for me to speak up about such a thing but it was so insulting I cannot think why the otherwise decent presenters used it.
I actually nuked the inclusion clowns at my bank - from the other direction.
I pointed out that their policies didn't include anything to deal with the issue of non-degreed people. Or the fact that there were zero hires from the long term UK located Afro-Carribean community. And that inviting people to bring children of *friends* to the bank to learn about it and get internships was the reverse of inclusion.
By the end of it, they just sat there.
I like to go in to such things with an open mind, and it is usually pretty clear early on if the people involved are sincere and looking to have a dialogue, or if they regard it as a performance piece. The materials used can be a mixture, as in my example it was mostly actually relevant information about the employer and the issues, but apparently someone could not help but include some external source they probably just found online (from a clearly american source to boot) and presumably thought was cool (it literally included talk about how it is ok to be lazy, so I feel like senior management cannot possibly have endorsed that).
In the case of my bank, I think the were sincere, but thought that ideological purity was a substitute for actually knowing what they were doing.
Someone said to me 'How can you doubt our motives?" - when I questioned their *actions*.
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
I attended an actually decent session (for such things), as it felt like an actual conversation with some practical examples of things that could (not must) be considered, and an admission of difficulties with some in practice (how do you give consideration to someone's cultural background in how they are responding at interview, without presuming what their background is based on characteristics like race or name?), so it was reasonably positive.
But I did challenge them strongly after the playing of a video which was just a propaganda piece, which directly said that working hard was (not could be, was) a sign of trying to make up for childhoold trauma, and a bunch of openly anti-capitalist sloganeering. Whether everyone felt the same way as me I cannot say, but certainly a number of others agreed vocally - it was very out of character for me to speak up about such a thing but it was so insulting I cannot think why the otherwise decent presenters used it.
I actually nuked the inclusion clowns at my bank - from the other direction.
I pointed out that their policies didn't include anything to deal with the issue of non-degreed people. Or the fact that there were zero hires from the long term UK located Afro-Carribean community. And that inviting people to bring children of *friends* to the bank to learn about it and get internships was the reverse of inclusion.
By the end of it, they just sat there.
I like to go in to such things with an open mind, and it is usually pretty clear early on if the people involved are sincere and looking to have a dialogue, or if they regard it as a performance piece. The materials used can be a mixture, as in my example it was mostly actually relevant information about the employer and the issues, but apparently someone could not help but include some external source they probably just found online (from a clearly american source to boot) and presumably thought was cool (it literally included talk about how it is ok to be lazy, so I feel like senior management cannot possibly have endorsed that).
In the case of my bank, I think the were sincere, but thought that ideological purity was a substitute for actually knowing what they were doing.
Someone said to me 'How can you doubt our motives?" - when I questioned their *actions*.
I hope you directed them to Matthew 7:16 ?
Imposing a culture on them?
Imposed a culture on them? Weeeeeell... I did sell some CISOs a bit later....
Looking at the early voting stats in some of the states that break it down by party registration (usual caveats apply re cannibalisation of the vote / party ID not necessarily meaning vote for the party.
In N Carolina, 2.3m have already voted - Republicans leading the early voters by 16K. Probably more concerning for the Democrats is that the percentage of Black voters is running several points below the electoral weighting (around 17%);
The Republicans are around 300K ahead in Florida (1.48m v 1.18n);
Still a big D lead in PA - 60 vs 30% on the vote. Mail ballot return rate running significantly ahead of Republicans across most counties.
Arizona - over 1m votes cast and the Republicans are up by around 80K
Ralston in NV is now saying the early returns do not look great for 2 of the NV D-held House seats. This raises a question. At what point - if any - does the message from the Democrats shift from pushing Harris for President to implicitly pushing for a split Congress to protect the US against Trump. There is an interesting choice to be made over the next 10 days or so.
It doesn't. Conceding an election, which is very much up for grabs, would be an act of grotesque self harm.
Looking at the early voting stats in some of the states that break it down by party registration (usual caveats apply re cannibalisation of the vote / party ID not necessarily meaning vote for the party.
In N Carolina, 2.3m have already voted - Republicans leading the early voters by 16K. Probably more concerning for the Democrats is that the percentage of Black voters is running several points below the electoral weighting (around 17%);
The Republicans are around 300K ahead in Florida (1.48m v 1.18n);
Still a big D lead in PA - 60 vs 30% on the vote. Mail ballot return rate running significantly ahead of Republicans across most counties.
Arizona - over 1m votes cast and the Republicans are up by around 80K
Ralston in NV is now saying the early returns do not look great for 2 of the NV D-held House seats. This raises a question. At what point - if any - does the message from the Democrats shift from pushing Harris for President to implicitly pushing for a split Congress to protect the US against Trump. There is an interesting choice to be made over the next 10 days or so.
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
Well done, I sat through a mandated black history month workshop yesterday given by... you guessed it, a white person! It was such a load of nonsense. Enough to make me start looking for another job, I don't think I can stick around here.
Try working in the public sector or 3rd sector where there is even more of it. Of course the Equality Act 2010 does effectively mandate EDI in workplaces
Does it? I've never had to do any of this stuff at work. Despite being one of the few people on here apparently who wouldn't have a fit of the vapours in response.
Well as long as there is no racial, sexual orientation, gender discrimination of any kind they could get away with it but most use EDI to ensure workplace compliance
Unsurprising that the shiniest new fab by the world's experts in this stuff is their best yet.
People are still thinking in terms of onshoring chip production as a pivot away from China. But consider the following scenario.
1a) China invades 2a) Taiwan blows up the chip fabs 3a) America is left with the world production of the advanced chips. They can stop the Chinese economy, in large areas. No, you can't smuggle in enough chips to keep it going, even if sanctions leak. Which they always do.
America could impose a horrific price on China.
As opposed to
1b) China invades 2b) Taiwan blows up the chip fabs 3b) Everyone is fucked
or
1c) China invades 2c) Taiwan doesn't blows up the chip fabs 3c) China gets to tell everyone what to do. Including the US.
It is a fantastic story. Strategically brilliant but how quickly did they get this all done ? We’d be on our fourth judicial review with the local NIMBYs objecting because it would affect the skyline or some other shit.
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
Well done, I sat through a mandated black history month workshop yesterday given by... you guessed it, a white person! It was such a load of nonsense. Enough to make me start looking for another job, I don't think I can stick around here.
Try working in the public sector or 3rd sector where there is even more of it. Of course the Equality Act 2010 does effectively mandate EDI in workplaces
Does it? I've never had to do any of this stuff at work. Despite being one of the few people on here apparently who wouldn't have a fit of the vapours in response.
Same here. It's a bit like only Remain voters getting into long passport queues when entering the EU.
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
I attended an actually decent session (for such things), as it felt like an actual conversation with some practical examples of things that could (not must) be considered, and an admission of difficulties with some in practice (how do you give consideration to someone's cultural background in how they are responding at interview, without presuming what their background is based on characteristics like race or name?), so it was reasonably positive.
But I did challenge them strongly after the playing of a video which was just a propaganda piece, which directly said that working hard was (not could be, was) a sign of trying to make up for childhoold trauma, and a bunch of openly anti-capitalist sloganeering. Whether everyone felt the same way as me I cannot say, but certainly a number of others agreed vocally - it was very out of character for me to speak up about such a thing but it was so insulting I cannot think why the otherwise decent presenters used it.
I actually nuked the inclusion clowns at my bank - from the other direction.
I pointed out that their policies didn't include anything to deal with the issue of non-degreed people. Or the fact that there were zero hires from the long term UK located Afro-Carribean community. And that inviting people to bring children of *friends* to the bank to learn about it and get internships was the reverse of inclusion.
By the end of it, they just sat there.
I like to go in to such things with an open mind, and it is usually pretty clear early on if the people involved are sincere and looking to have a dialogue, or if they regard it as a performance piece. The materials used can be a mixture, as in my example it was mostly actually relevant information about the employer and the issues, but apparently someone could not help but include some external source they probably just found online (from a clearly american source to boot) and presumably thought was cool (it literally included talk about how it is ok to be lazy, so I feel like senior management cannot possibly have endorsed that).
In the case of my bank, I think the were sincere, but thought that ideological purity was a substitute for actually knowing what they were doing.
Someone said to me 'How can you doubt our motives?" - when I questioned their *actions*.
Looking at the early voting stats in some of the states that break it down by party registration (usual caveats apply re cannibalisation of the vote / party ID not necessarily meaning vote for the party.
In N Carolina, 2.3m have already voted - Republicans leading the early voters by 16K. Probably more concerning for the Democrats is that the percentage of Black voters is running several points below the electoral weighting (around 17%);
The Republicans are around 300K ahead in Florida (1.48m v 1.18n);
Still a big D lead in PA - 60 vs 30% on the vote. Mail ballot return rate running significantly ahead of Republicans across most counties.
Arizona - over 1m votes cast and the Republicans are up by around 80K
Ralston in NV is now saying the early returns do not look great for 2 of the NV D-held House seats. This raises a question. At what point - if any - does the message from the Democrats shift from pushing Harris for President to implicitly pushing for a split Congress to protect the US against Trump. There is an interesting choice to be made over the next 10 days or so.
As below if Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and Ne02 and Trump wins Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia and Nevada then Harris wins 270 to 268 for Trump.
The Congress is heading GOP anyway, the Senate certainly
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
One never knows if a genuine swing is under way, or if a party is just cannibalising its vote.
Or how Indys are breaking, or how many of the Regs are defecting.
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
Cheers thanks. Needing a bit of that.
Could equally be bollocks, of course.
No one knows.
+1 until we start seeing the actual results coming out from districts and we can compare those districts to how they voted in 2020/2016 we haven't a clue what the actual result will be.
It's going to be the same as the Brexit vote where we quickly knew the end result because Sunderland had x% more Brexit votes than anyone expected...
Being a Japanese opposition politician feels like a very frustrating choice to make, when the real Opposition is within the factions of the LDP (albeit there is some thought they possibly might not get a majority outright this time).
Indeed, last time Japan had a change of government was 2008 when the Democratic party won and doesn't look like changing on Sunday either
Well, the governing coalition of the LDP and KMT look set to lose their majority in the House of Representatives.
That being said, there's no obvious alternative coalition headed by the Constitutional Democrats so I imagine the LDP will stagger on.
Unsurprising that the shiniest new fab by the world's experts in this stuff is their best yet.
People are still thinking in terms of onshoring chip production as a pivot away from China. But consider the following scenario.
1a) China invades 2a) Taiwan blows up the chip fabs 3a) America is left with the world production of the advanced chips. They can stop the Chinese economy, in large areas. No, you can't smuggle in enough chips to keep it going, even if sanctions leak. Which they always do.
America could impose a horrific price on China.
As opposed to
1b) China invades 2b) Taiwan blows up the chip fabs 3b) Everyone is fucked
or
1c) China invades 2c) Taiwan doesn't blows up the chip fabs 3c) China gets to tell everyone what to do. Including the US.
It is a fantastic story. Strategically brilliant but how quickly did they get this all done ? We’d be on our fourth judicial review with the local NIMBYs objecting because it would affect the skyline or some other shit.
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
Cheers thanks. Needing a bit of that.
Could equally be bollocks, of course.
No one knows.
+1 until we start seeing the actual results coming out from districts and we can compare those districts to how they voted in 2020/2016 we haven't a clue what the actual result will be.
It's going to be the same as the Brexit vote where we quickly knew the end result because Sunderland had x% more Brexit votes than anyone expected...
Unless there's some remarkable event between now and election day, then election night is going to be wild.
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
Cheers thanks. Needing a bit of that.
Could equally be bollocks, of course.
No one knows.
But let's keep morale up by trading bollox for bollox if necessary.
Unsurprising that the shiniest new fab by the world's experts in this stuff is their best yet.
People are still thinking in terms of onshoring chip production as a pivot away from China. But consider the following scenario.
1a) China invades 2a) Taiwan blows up the chip fabs 3a) America is left with the world production of the advanced chips. They can stop the Chinese economy, in large areas. No, you can't smuggle in enough chips to keep it going, even if sanctions leak. Which they always do.
America could impose a horrific price on China.
As opposed to
1b) China invades 2b) Taiwan blows up the chip fabs 3b) Everyone is fucked
or
1c) China invades 2c) Taiwan doesn't blows up the chip fabs 3c) China gets to tell everyone what to do. Including the US.
It is a fantastic story. Strategically brilliant but how quickly did they get this all done ? We’d be on our fourth judicial review with the local NIMBYs objecting because it would affect the skyline or some other shit.
We live in a lawyerocracy.
Indeed we do. Talking of which the Abingdon Reservoir is under threat of another judicial NIMBY intervention
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
Chinese overcapacity floods the international market with cheap steel and aluminum. Their unfair trade practices put Canadian workers at a disadvantage — and we’re taking action.
Starting today, there are 25% tariffs on Chinese-made steel and aluminum imports to Canada.
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
Cheers thanks. Needing a bit of that.
Could equally be bollocks, of course.
No one knows.
+1 until we start seeing the actual results coming out from districts and we can compare those districts to how they voted in 2020/2016 we haven't a clue what the actual result will be.
It's going to be the same as the Brexit vote where we quickly knew the end result because Sunderland had x% more Brexit votes than anyone expected...
When will the first results start to come through ? 2AM, 3AM our time ?
Unsurprising that the shiniest new fab by the world's experts in this stuff is their best yet.
People are still thinking in terms of onshoring chip production as a pivot away from China. But consider the following scenario.
1a) China invades 2a) Taiwan blows up the chip fabs 3a) America is left with the world production of the advanced chips. They can stop the Chinese economy, in large areas. No, you can't smuggle in enough chips to keep it going, even if sanctions leak. Which they always do.
America could impose a horrific price on China.
As opposed to
1b) China invades 2b) Taiwan blows up the chip fabs 3b) Everyone is fucked
or
1c) China invades 2c) Taiwan doesn't blows up the chip fabs 3c) China gets to tell everyone what to do. Including the US.
It is a fantastic story. Strategically brilliant but how quickly did they get this all done ? We’d be on our fourth judicial review with the local NIMBYs objecting because it would affect the skyline or some other shit.
Biden legislated.
Amusingly, the Taiwanese griped about the US work ethic during construction, but it all seems to have worked out.
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
Cheers thanks. Needing a bit of that.
Could equally be bollocks, of course.
No one knows.
+1 until we start seeing the actual results coming out from districts and we can compare those districts to how they voted in 2020/2016 we haven't a clue what the actual result will be.
It's going to be the same as the Brexit vote where we quickly knew the end result because Sunderland had x% more Brexit votes than anyone expected...
While I agree with that in general... it is worth remembering that groups of States are likely to swing together: the rust belt will likely shift together, the South together, etc.
Back in 2016, we saw the opposite moves in Michigan and California, for example.
That said, the big question for me is: when the Florida polls close, is it immediately called for the Republicans?
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
Yes, I posted that yesterday; Trump is threatening to can the subsidy, threatening about $50-60bn of TSMC investment in the US. He's an utter fool.
Sorry, never saw you post it.
He’s an utter idiot for even considering that. It’s exactly the sort of policy he’d be advocating had Biden not done this so that makes it even worse.
The GOP opposed every single Biden industrial subsidy - and many Congress members are now trying to take credit for stuff they voted against. Trump can't even bring himself to do that.
It is obvious to anyone and everyone that what is meant is that working people won't pay more taxes on their wages.
Who gives a shit anyway. I'm totally uninterested in budget speculation. You can't bet on it and there's only a few days to wait before we know what's in it.
Well, yes, but people are weighing up whether to make adjustments in anticipation of what might happen, and I think this is understandable and damaging.
If, for example, a person is 60 and planning to retire in, say, 2 or 3 years time, do they crystallise their pension now and release their tax free cash or do they risk it (i.e. Reeves changing the rules on Budget Day, from immediate effect)?
Don't forget that kini has plenty of money so he really doesn't give a shit about what is or isn't in the budget as it affects people who might not be as fortunate, clever, and previously hardworking as he is and was.
It's not about money, Topping. Until the day they find a way to tax morality and a quiet unassuming high mindedness I'll never live in fear of a UK budget.
Yes, I posted that yesterday; Trump is threatening to can the subsidy, threatening about $50-60bn of TSMC investment in the US. He's an utter fool.
Sorry, never saw you post it.
He’s an utter idiot for even considering that. It’s exactly the sort of policy he’d be advocating had Biden not done this so that makes it even worse.
The GOP opposed every single Biden industrial subsidy - and many Congress members are now trying to take credit for stuff they voted against. Trump can't even bring himself to do that.
Also infrastructure. See this characteristic community note.
We hate traffic just as much as you do.
We helped secure $195 million—the largest grant in South Carolina's history from the U.S. Department of Transportation—to kick off the Long Point Road Interchange Project https://x.com/RepNancyMace/status/1848756207970095105
"Rep. Nancy Mace voted against the infrastructure act that supplied this funding. "
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
One never knows if a genuine swing is under way, or if a party is just cannibalising its vote.
Or how Indys are breaking, or how many of the Regs are defecting.
I'd say that Republican voters for Harris are more numerous than unicorns, but only slightly.
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Hey Leon, I see SKS's language on reparations has changed. He is now open to "non cash" reparations. You absolutely called it.
It was noticeable yesterday mainstream labour figures like Harriet Harman, Ayesha Hazarika and Paul Mason all came out in favour of reparative justice for our past. Caroline Flint said this morning on GMB they wouldn't get all the money they were demanding as it was 6 times our GDP but didn't rule anything else out.
It was also interesting to see here that your sparring partner, Kinabalu, and that cash obsessive Anabobs, were claiming this was a debate driven by angry right wingers. The running in this debate and in the media is from the left and those supporting reparatory justice. Those opposing it are just responding to the shakedown.
They know a cuck and a soft touch when they see one.
He's such a fucking dickhead. Sir Sheer Wanker.
Well it was predicted yesterday. He can feel virtuous with our money and resources.
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
Well done, I sat through a mandated black history month workshop yesterday given by... you guessed it, a white person! It was such a load of nonsense. Enough to make me start looking for another job, I don't think I can stick around here.
Try working in the public sector or 3rd sector where there is even more of it. Of course the Equality Act 2010 does effectively mandate EDI in workplaces
Does it? I've never had to do any of this stuff at work. Despite being one of the few people on here apparently who wouldn't have a fit of the vapours in response.
We have to do inclusivity training. It's some of our better training actually, focusing on treating customers and colleagues as you would want to be treated yourself in the same situation.
The famously woke and anti-Trump Wall Street Journal has clearly invented the story about Elon Musk being in regular contact with Vladimir Putin. The fact that Musk shares Putin's entire values system is entirely coincidental. He is a far better engineer, though.
We know musk is in regular contact with Putin because he TOLD us about a year ago when he was floating ideas for a Ukrainian peace
Similarly, several Russian oligarchs - like Abramovich - are talking to the west even as they obey Putin
This is how diplomacy works. Powerful individuals can often act as go-betweens
Otherwise how would peace ever get discussed? Next
You say 'peace'; if he's talking to Putin alone, then it'll be 'surrender' they're discussing. Ukrainian surrender, that is.
It's like Corbyn talking to the IRA etc in terms of 'peace', If you're talking to only one side, then you're not talking peace. You're talking their side. Worse, these publicity-seeking idiots who go about trying to negotiate 'peace' without the explicit or implicit say-so of their government often make matters worse by disrupting other negotiations.
A serious question. What would you do regarding Russia / Ukraine if you were in charge? Do you think the current “strategy” is a good one?
No, we should be providing more and better arms so this stalemate can be ended and so the Russian occupation can be ended. Then we might get peace. Currently people are dying needlessly on both sides and it would be a disaster to let Russia take Ukraine or even part of it. We should stop this half hearted support and put Putin back in his box. With any luck that might also have the result of Putin losing his power in Russia and Luckashenko being removed in Belarus and reverting to a democracy.
Escalation is rarely a good idea, and escalation in the cause of maintaining boundaries probably against the wishes of current residents is a terrible idea. There's a difficult discussion to be had about who gets to decide in areas where the supporters of one side have mostly fled, but common sense suggests that a shift in the border to accommodate pro-Russian residents coupled with NATO membership for the Ukrainian majority would be grudgingly accepted by both sides. Regardless, some creative exploration of options would be better than endless conflict.
Apologies for my slightly intemperate reply to you upthread, Nick - but I do disagree with you about the likely willingness of Putin to agree any such deal.
I don't disagree that Ukraine might eventually settle for something of the sort highlighted, despite the clear and obvious injustice, and Russia's blatant breach of international law - but in any event, signalling so in advance would probably just ensure further claims on its territory.
And there's absolutely no evidence that Putin would accept any such deal.
I agree that it'd be unwise to propose it publically without ensuring a constructive response, but it's also unwise to offer nothing but a choice of "more war on current lines" and "an escalated war". It's possible that the majority of Ukraine joining NATO would be something that Putin wouldn't swallow now, but it would offer Ukraine security of NATO membership in return for providing somewhere for pro-Russians to stay.
Unsurprising that the shiniest new fab by the world's experts in this stuff is their best yet.
People are still thinking in terms of onshoring chip production as a pivot away from China. But consider the following scenario.
1a) China invades 2a) Taiwan blows up the chip fabs 3a) America is left with the world production of the advanced chips. They can stop the Chinese economy, in large areas. No, you can't smuggle in enough chips to keep it going, even if sanctions leak. Which they always do.
America could impose a horrific price on China.
As opposed to
1b) China invades 2b) Taiwan blows up the chip fabs 3b) Everyone is fucked
or
1c) China invades 2c) Taiwan doesn't blows up the chip fabs 3c) China gets to tell everyone what to do. Including the US.
I believe the Chinese can produce enough assorted chips that they'd be fine. Not the highest quality stuff, but that will come. We'd be far more fucked considering almost all of out electronics rely upon some part of the Chinese supply chain. No point in a NVIDIA chip if all the other components are in a Shenzhen warehouse.
China's chosen to be a highly developed and self-sustaining economy. While the UK soon won't be able to make its own virgin steel and god forbid you want some UK made drone bits.
Looking at the early voting stats in some of the states that break it down by party registration (usual caveats apply re cannibalisation of the vote / party ID not necessarily meaning vote for the party.
In N Carolina, 2.3m have already voted - Republicans leading the early voters by 16K. Probably more concerning for the Democrats is that the percentage of Black voters is running several points below the electoral weighting (around 17%);
The Republicans are around 300K ahead in Florida (1.48m v 1.18n);
Still a big D lead in PA - 60 vs 30% on the vote. Mail ballot return rate running significantly ahead of Republicans across most counties.
Arizona - over 1m votes cast and the Republicans are up by around 80K
Ralston in NV is now saying the early returns do not look great for 2 of the NV D-held House seats. This raises a question. At what point - if any - does the message from the Democrats shift from pushing Harris for President to implicitly pushing for a split Congress to protect the US against Trump. There is an interesting choice to be made over the next 10 days or so.
It doesn't. Conceding an election, which is very much up for grabs, would be an act of grotesque self harm.
In any case there's only one way to protect the US against Trump.
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
I bet there are some tweets from the past about this.
Great - freeports might confer a small advantage economically, so let's erode that in the intersts of... what exactly? Labour's union paymasters won't like the extension of low regulation zones to more of their fiefdoms.
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
Cheers thanks. Needing a bit of that.
Could equally be bollocks, of course.
No one knows.
+1 until we start seeing the actual results coming out from districts and we can compare those districts to how they voted in 2020/2016 we haven't a clue what the actual result will be.
It's going to be the same as the Brexit vote where we quickly knew the end result because Sunderland had x% more Brexit votes than anyone expected...
While I agree with that in general... it is worth remembering that groups of States are likely to swing together: the rust belt will likely shift together, the South together, etc.
Back in 2016, we saw the opposite moves in Michigan and California, for example.
That said, the big question for me is: when the Florida polls close, is it immediately called for the Republicans?
Judging by the hue of the early vote in Miami. Yes.
& before we cay cubans blah blah - remember Clinton completely crushed Trump there.
The famously woke and anti-Trump Wall Street Journal has clearly invented the story about Elon Musk being in regular contact with Vladimir Putin. The fact that Musk shares Putin's entire values system is entirely coincidental. He is a far better engineer, though.
We know musk is in regular contact with Putin because he TOLD us about a year ago when he was floating ideas for a Ukrainian peace
Similarly, several Russian oligarchs - like Abramovich - are talking to the west even as they obey Putin
This is how diplomacy works. Powerful individuals can often act as go-betweens
Otherwise how would peace ever get discussed? Next
You say 'peace'; if he's talking to Putin alone, then it'll be 'surrender' they're discussing. Ukrainian surrender, that is.
It's like Corbyn talking to the IRA etc in terms of 'peace', If you're talking to only one side, then you're not talking peace. You're talking their side. Worse, these publicity-seeking idiots who go about trying to negotiate 'peace' without the explicit or implicit say-so of their government often make matters worse by disrupting other negotiations.
A serious question. What would you do regarding Russia / Ukraine if you were in charge? Do you think the current “strategy” is a good one?
No, we should be providing more and better arms so this stalemate can be ended and so the Russian occupation can be ended. Then we might get peace. Currently people are dying needlessly on both sides and it would be a disaster to let Russia take Ukraine or even part of it. We should stop this half hearted support and put Putin back in his box. With any luck that might also have the result of Putin losing his power in Russia and Luckashenko being removed in Belarus and reverting to a democracy.
Escalation is rarely a good idea, and escalation in the cause of maintaining boundaries probably against the wishes of current residents is a terrible idea. There's a difficult discussion to be had about who gets to decide in areas where the supporters of one side have mostly fled, but common sense suggests that a shift in the border to accommodate pro-Russian residents coupled with NATO membership for the Ukrainian majority would be grudgingly accepted by both sides. Regardless, some creative exploration of options would be better than endless conflict.
Apologies for my slightly intemperate reply to you upthread, Nick - but I do disagree with you about the likely willingness of Putin to agree any such deal.
I don't disagree that Ukraine might eventually settle for something of the sort highlighted, despite the clear and obvious injustice, and Russia's blatant breach of international law - but in any event, signalling so in advance would probably just ensure further claims on its territory.
And there's absolutely no evidence that Putin would accept any such deal.
I agree that it'd be unwise to propose it publically without ensuring a constructive response, but it's also unwise to offer nothing but a choice of "more war on current lines" and "an escalated war". It's possible that the majority of Ukraine joining NATO would be something that Putin wouldn't swallow now, but it would offer Ukraine security of NATO membership in return for providing somewhere for pro-Russians to stay.
Any such theory assumes a certain amount of goodwill on the part of Putin - or a degree of genuine concern for Ukraine's pro-Russians.
There's pretty well no evidence for either, and a good deal of evidence to the contrary.
I bet there are some tweets from the past about this.
"Freeports are shit" was the universal response (from supporters of other parties) to Conservative attempts at creating them, IIRC.
Well all they do is move work from outside the freeport into it but the bunch of cowboys at Teesport have set things up so that no-one sane would go near it thankfully.
Checked the employer NI side of things it saves a company robs the public purse about £2194 per worker per year - that adds up quick if the freeport doesn't shaft you on other costs...
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
Well done, I sat through a mandated black history month workshop yesterday given by... you guessed it, a white person! It was such a load of nonsense. Enough to make me start looking for another job, I don't think I can stick around here.
Other half, working for local council, spends 25% of her time on meetings and on these courses. In last 10 years (private sector), I haven't been on one of these courses/training and haven't had a single meeting this year in new job. No idea how she stay so patient with it all, would drive me loopy.
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
Surely no one sane thinks Sir Keir would even entertain this. It would be political suicide and Rachel would never be able to cut anything ever again.
There are over 400 Labour MPs, most of whom are basically lobby fodder. If we are to jump up and down anytime anyone of them says anything even remotely controversial we'll all get very tired very quickly.
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
One never knows if a genuine swing is under way, or if a party is just cannibalising its vote.
Or how Indys are breaking, or how many of the Regs are defecting.
I'd say that Republican voters for Harris are more numerous than unicorns, but only slightly.
Really? I think there'll be a fair few. And there's the abstain option too.
The GOP candidate is Donald Trump, remember. If I were a Republican (for small state, low tax reasons) I'd struggle to vote for him if I valued democracy and the constitution.
I bet there are some tweets from the past about this.
"Freeports are shit" was the universal response (from supporters of other parties) to Conservative attempts at creating them, IIRC.
Well all they do is move work from outside the freeport into it but the bunch of cowboys at Teesport have set things up so that no-one sane would go near it thankfully.
Checked the employer NI side of things it saves a company robs the public purse about £2194 per worker per year - that adds up quick if the freeport doesn't shaft you on other costs...
FTFY
I don't disagree - but that lost employer NI is a decent trade off if a Freeport brings a large company into the area that would otherwise have gone to a different country - but the reality is I don't see those companies arriving in the UK because the logical solution will always be build the factory somewhere within the EU.
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
One thing I think will be true about the overall map, it'll have less urban-rural polarisation than 2020 and definitely less than 2016 which I think was just about the peak.
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
The famously woke and anti-Trump Wall Street Journal has clearly invented the story about Elon Musk being in regular contact with Vladimir Putin. The fact that Musk shares Putin's entire values system is entirely coincidental. He is a far better engineer, though.
We know musk is in regular contact with Putin because he TOLD us about a year ago when he was floating ideas for a Ukrainian peace
Similarly, several Russian oligarchs - like Abramovich - are talking to the west even as they obey Putin
This is how diplomacy works. Powerful individuals can often act as go-betweens
Otherwise how would peace ever get discussed? Next
You say 'peace'; if he's talking to Putin alone, then it'll be 'surrender' they're discussing. Ukrainian surrender, that is.
It's like Corbyn talking to the IRA etc in terms of 'peace', If you're talking to only one side, then you're not talking peace. You're talking their side. Worse, these publicity-seeking idiots who go about trying to negotiate 'peace' without the explicit or implicit say-so of their government often make matters worse by disrupting other negotiations.
A serious question. What would you do regarding Russia / Ukraine if you were in charge? Do you think the current “strategy” is a good one?
No, we should be providing more and better arms so this stalemate can be ended and so the Russian occupation can be ended. Then we might get peace. Currently people are dying needlessly on both sides and it would be a disaster to let Russia take Ukraine or even part of it. We should stop this half hearted support and put Putin back in his box. With any luck that might also have the result of Putin losing his power in Russia and Luckashenko being removed in Belarus and reverting to a democracy.
Escalation is rarely a good idea, and escalation in the cause of maintaining boundaries probably against the wishes of current residents is a terrible idea. There's a difficult discussion to be had about who gets to decide in areas where the supporters of one side have mostly fled, but common sense suggests that a shift in the border to accommodate pro-Russian residents coupled with NATO membership for the Ukrainian majority would be grudgingly accepted by both sides. Regardless, some creative exploration of options would be better than endless conflict.
Apologies for my slightly intemperate reply to you upthread, Nick - but I do disagree with you about the likely willingness of Putin to agree any such deal.
I don't disagree that Ukraine might eventually settle for something of the sort highlighted, despite the clear and obvious injustice, and Russia's blatant breach of international law - but in any event, signalling so in advance would probably just ensure further claims on its territory.
And there's absolutely no evidence that Putin would accept any such deal.
I agree that it'd be unwise to propose it publically without ensuring a constructive response, but it's also unwise to offer nothing but a choice of "more war on current lines" and "an escalated war". It's possible that the majority of Ukraine joining NATO would be something that Putin wouldn't swallow now, but it would offer Ukraine security of NATO membership in return for providing somewhere for pro-Russians to stay.
Any such theory assumes a certain amount of goodwill on the part of Putin - or a degree of genuine concern for Ukraine's pro-Russians.
There's pretty well no evidence for either, and a good deal of evidence to the contrary.
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
Well done, I sat through a mandated black history month workshop yesterday given by... you guessed it, a white person! It was such a load of nonsense. Enough to make me start looking for another job, I don't think I can stick around here.
Try working in the public sector or 3rd sector where there is even more of it. Of course the Equality Act 2010 does effectively mandate EDI in workplaces
Does it? I've never had to do any of this stuff at work. Despite being one of the few people on here apparently who wouldn't have a fit of the vapours in response.
We have to do inclusivity training. It's some of our better training actually, focusing on treating customers and colleagues as you would want to be treated yourself in the same situation.
Some of it is useful.
Some of it is performative woo.
Some of it is bizarre political theatre.
Some of it reminds me of what Malcolm X said about white liberals.
Chinese overcapacity floods the international market with cheap steel and aluminum. Their unfair trade practices put Canadian workers at a disadvantage — and we’re taking action.
Starting today, there are 25% tariffs on Chinese-made steel and aluminum imports to Canada.
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
Surely no one sane thinks Sir Keir would even entertain this. It would be political suicide and Rachel would never be able to cut anything ever again.
There are over 400 Labour MPs, most of whom are basically lobby fodder. If we are to jump up and down anytime anyone of them says anything even remotely controversial we'll all get very tired very quickly.
New: Josh Shapiro privately pressed Kamala Harris to take up one of his policies aimed at working-class voters — tossing out college degree requirements for government jobs.
"Labour MP says the time is now for Britain to pay reparations Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology. PoliticsJOE"
Surely no one sane thinks Sir Keir would even entertain this. It would be political suicide and Rachel would never be able to cut anything ever again.
There are over 400 Labour MPs, most of whom are basically lobby fodder. If we are to jump up and down anytime anyone of them says anything even remotely controversial we'll all get very tired very quickly.
We do. And we are.
Where has that got you except tired? We had all this in the 1980s when Conservative backbenchers, safe behind a 140+ Parliamentary majority, could come up with any old "rent-a quote" nonsense and be taken "seriously" as a backbench MP of the governing party.
Looking at the early voting stats in some of the states that break it down by party registration (usual caveats apply re cannibalisation of the vote / party ID not necessarily meaning vote for the party.
In N Carolina, 2.3m have already voted - Republicans leading the early voters by 16K. Probably more concerning for the Democrats is that the percentage of Black voters is running several points below the electoral weighting (around 17%);
The Republicans are around 300K ahead in Florida (1.48m v 1.18n);
Still a big D lead in PA - 60 vs 30% on the vote. Mail ballot return rate running significantly ahead of Republicans across most counties.
Arizona - over 1m votes cast and the Republicans are up by around 80K
Ralston in NV is now saying the early returns do not look great for 2 of the NV D-held House seats. This raises a question. At what point - if any - does the message from the Democrats shift from pushing Harris for President to implicitly pushing for a split Congress to protect the US against Trump. There is an interesting choice to be made over the next 10 days or so.
As below if Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and Ne02 and Trump wins Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia and Nevada then Harris wins 270 to 268 for Trump.
The Congress is heading GOP anyway, the Senate certainly
The Senate for sure, but I would probably make the Dems the slight favorite for the House. They only just lost it in 2022, and you would expect a swingback from the midterms.
Just got off a company EDI call. And for the first time ever 2 or 3 of us were openly challenging it, including me.
Sands are shifting.
Well done, I sat through a mandated black history month workshop yesterday given by... you guessed it, a white person! It was such a load of nonsense. Enough to make me start looking for another job, I don't think I can stick around here.
Try working in the public sector or 3rd sector where there is even more of it. Of course the Equality Act 2010 does effectively mandate EDI in workplaces
Does it? I've never had to do any of this stuff at work. Despite being one of the few people on here apparently who wouldn't have a fit of the vapours in response.
We have to do inclusivity training. It's some of our better training actually, focusing on treating customers and colleagues as you would want to be treated yourself in the same situation.
Some of it is useful.
Some of it is performative woo.
Some of it is bizarre political theatre.
Some of it reminds me of what Malcolm X said about white liberals.
I agree. But in that case why not improve your training? It can be done well.
I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.
There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.
I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.
Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
Who knows ? Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case. A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there. https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
One never knows if a genuine swing is under way, or if a party is just cannibalising its vote.
Or how Indys are breaking, or how many of the Regs are defecting.
I'd say that Republican voters for Harris are more numerous than unicorns, but only slightly.
Really? I think there'll be a fair few. And there's the abstain option too.
The GOP candidate is Donald Trump, remember. If I were a Republican (for small state, low tax reasons) I'd struggle to vote for him if I valued democracy and the constitution.
You'd hope so, but Sean F is right about how few Harris Republicans there are in the grand scheme of things, in a place with as many current and former elected officials as the USA. More have come forward in the last couple of weeks, but most of the well known ones have been around for ages, people like Adam Kinzinger, Liz Cheney, Joe Walsh, Geoff Duncan, it has not exactly been a continual drip of big names.
My default assumption is most party waverers return home when push comes to shove, and the question is whether there are enough who will not, to overcome Trump rises among some groups.
Comments
I’m reassured there’s nothing to worry about !
Can you adjust your settings please?
Everytime you're replying to Topping it's publishing the Topping screed twice.
Nobody wants that.
Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.
Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.
And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case.
A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there.
https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
As with most things in life , balance and timing seem to apply to travel.
The gist was something to do with geopolitical worries, but I'd have to dig it out from somewhere.
It's like when politicians object to their opponents playing politics (who else is supposed to play it if not politicians?) or arguing that they want division. I mean, yeah, I like people to come together as much as the next guy, but politics is our way of dividing ourselves on some topics in a reasonable way.
https://x.com/vtchakarova/status/1849735432637911386?s=61
Someone said to me 'How can you doubt our motives?" - when I questioned their *actions*.
Another Putin apologist.
https://www.newsweek.com/jill-stein-vladimir-putin-war-criminal-1954965
..Hasan later asked Stein why she had labeled Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a war criminal, but not Putin.
"Well, as John F. Kennedy said, we must not negotiate out of fear and we must not fear to negotiate," she replied. "So, if you want to be an effective world leader, you don't start by name-calling and hurling epithets."
"So, how will President Stein negotiate with Israel then if you've called Netanyahu a war criminal?" Hasan asked in response.
"Well, because he very clearly is a war criminal," Stein said, prompting Hasan to ask: "So Putin clearly isn't a war criminal?"
"Well, we don't have a decision—put it this way—by the International Criminal Court," Stein said.
The ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin, alleging that he is responsible for war crimes. No such warrant has been issued for Netanyahu*..
(*Though one was requested by a prosecutor shortly after this interview.)
https://x.com/questcnn/status/1849480779404894295?s=61
I see a fair bit about gold in my twitter feed. It seems odd stocks are near an all time high but both gold and Bitcoin are doing well,too.
It isn’t only the U.K. bond yields increasing. It’s the same in the US too.
In N Carolina, 2.3m have already voted - Republicans leading the early voters by 16K. Probably more concerning for the Democrats is that the percentage of Black voters is running several points below the electoral weighting (around 17%);
The Republicans are around 300K ahead in Florida (1.48m v 1.18n);
Still a big D lead in PA - 60 vs 30% on the vote. Mail ballot return rate running significantly ahead of Republicans across most counties.
Arizona - over 1m votes cast and the Republicans are up by around 80K
Ralston in NV is now saying the early returns do not look great for 2 of the NV D-held House seats. This raises a question. At what point - if any - does the message from the Democrats shift from pushing Harris for President to implicitly pushing for a split Congress to protect the US against Trump. There is an interesting choice to be made over the next 10 days or so.
People are still thinking in terms of onshoring chip production as a pivot away from China. But consider the following scenario.
1a) China invades
2a) Taiwan blows up the chip fabs
3a) America is left with the world production of the advanced chips. They can stop the Chinese economy, in large areas. No, you can't smuggle in enough chips to keep it going, even if sanctions leak. Which they always do.
America could impose a horrific price on China.
As opposed to
1b) China invades
2b) Taiwan blows up the chip fabs
3b) Everyone is fucked
or
1c) China invades
2c) Taiwan doesn't blows up the chip fabs
3c) China gets to tell everyone what to do. Including the US.
My response to "Ethical investment", "Diversity and Inclusion", "Corporate Social Responsibility" "Sustainability" is along the lines of "the louder he spoke of his honour, the faster we counted our spoons."
He's an utter fool.
270 Harris to 268 Trump looks possible though, maybe with Trump even winning the popular vote too
https://www.270towin.com/
White women ✅
Black men ❌
No one knows.
The Congress is heading GOP anyway, the Senate certainly
It's going to be the same as the Brexit vote where we quickly knew the end result because Sunderland had x% more Brexit votes than anyone expected...
That being said, there's no obvious alternative coalition headed by the Constitutional Democrats so I imagine the LDP will stagger on.
He’s an utter idiot for even considering that. It’s exactly the sort of policy he’d be advocating had Biden not done this so that makes it even worse.
Charge up your Betfair Exchange cash.
The Dems have found another good debater.
https://x.com/MollyJongFast/status/1849439589817082102
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/cars/news/oxfordshire-reservoir-plans-under-threat-as-nimbys-launch-legal-action/ar-AA1sRBL8?ocid=iehp
Bell Ribeiro-Addy on Keir Starmer's trip to Samoa - and why Commonwealth nations need an apology.
PoliticsJOE"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crtOC1X4XQc
https://x.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1848823727225770393
Chinese overcapacity floods the international market with cheap steel and aluminum. Their unfair trade practices put Canadian workers at a disadvantage — and we’re taking action.
Starting today, there are 25% tariffs on Chinese-made steel and aluminum imports to Canada.
https://x.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1849217594710011992
We’re going to have fewer temporary foreign workers in Canada.
We’re bringing in stricter rules for companies to prove why they can’t hire Canadian workers first.
Amusingly, the Taiwanese griped about the US work ethic during construction, but it all seems to have worked out.
Back in 2016, we saw the opposite moves in Michigan and California, for example.
That said, the big question for me is: when the Florida polls close, is it immediately called for the Republicans?
See this characteristic community note.
We hate traffic just as much as you do.
We helped secure $195 million—the largest grant in South Carolina's history from the U.S. Department of Transportation—to kick off the Long Point Road Interchange Project
https://x.com/RepNancyMace/status/1848756207970095105
"Rep. Nancy Mace voted against the infrastructure act that supplied this funding. "
Election-Betting Site Polymarket Says Trump Whale Identified as French Trader
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-24/polymarket-says-trump-whale-identified-as-french-trader
I've used up my photo quota, but he has the same vacant stare that we saw from Estelle Morris before she resigned:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/media/images/38377000/jpg/_38377751_morris300.jpg
Or maybe it should reversed based on the Imperial Contribution?
https://tinyurl.com/3x73ta66
China's chosen to be a highly developed and self-sustaining economy. While the UK soon won't be able to make its own virgin steel and god forbid you want some UK made drone bits.
SKS is already wavering.
https://x.com/lbc/status/1849404026862919934?s=61
https://x.com/ippr/status/1849477195774804267?s=61
We’re going to end up on the hook for billions as SKS will buckle, as @Leon has said a few times.
Best dig deep one and all.
& before we cay cubans blah blah - remember Clinton completely crushed Trump there.
There's pretty well no evidence for either, and a good deal of evidence to the contrary.
The GOP candidate is Donald Trump, remember. If I were a Republican (for small state, low tax reasons) I'd struggle to vote for him if I valued democracy and the constitution.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/22/high-russian-death-toll-fails-shift-opinion-ukraine-war
Some of it is performative woo.
Some of it is bizarre political theatre.
Some of it reminds me of what Malcolm X said about white liberals.
New: Josh Shapiro privately pressed Kamala Harris to take up one of his policies aimed at working-class voters — tossing out college degree requirements for government jobs.
She rolled out the proposal at a rally in a blue-collar city in Pennsylvania. politico.com/news/2024/10/25…
https://nitter.poast.org/hollyotterbein/status/1849776400284152096#m
My default assumption is most party waverers return home when push comes to shove, and the question is whether there are enough who will not, to overcome Trump rises among some groups.