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Why Trump is (a bit) like Hamas – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,146
edited November 7 in General
imageWhy Trump is (a bit) like Hamas – politicalbetting.com

This comparison will offend some of you, sorry. Also, if you are a supporter of either Trump or Hamas, maybe skip reading this.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,260
    first
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,379
    Second. Like Trump and Hamas.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,701
    Trump and cnut sort of rhyme.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,838
    Given one of the two parties actually has a strategy to return manufacturing to the US and has been implementing it, then the argument in the header is pretty unconvincing account of Trump's appeal.

    Which is one of emotion rather than policy.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,000
    edited October 19
    "What almost never seems to be asked of our two residents is: What is it that makes you pledge your support to such a flawed political project as ... Trump?"

    Actually this is often asked, in fact obsessively by some. I've lost track of the number of documentaries I've seen and articles I've read where a condescending journalist visits a rust belt city to ask ordinary people how they can be so stupid as to vote for someone the journalist disagrees with - we had a fair few similar in this country after we voted Leave. Biden's whole economic policy, in restoring "good union jobs" through intervention, subsidies and protectionism, however flawed, can be seen as an attempt to bribe the white working class back into the Democratic fold that they have been fleeing since the 1960s.

    It clearly hasn't worked, either because it hasn't been done sufficiently, because it is completely impratical and counter-productive, or imo because the causes of the alienation of the WWC are mostly cultural rather than economic, but to say that this question is never asked is quite wrong.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,838
    You only have to look at the Republican politicians in the flyover stares, taking credit for the Biden industrial policies that they voted against, to know that it's not about policy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,838
    Take the specific example of clothing manufacturing cited in the header.

    Here's a long thread looking at the implications of Trump's suggested solution.

    Kevin raises an interesting point about how tariffs can be used to protect American intellectual property. Let's run through how this would work in the clothing industry. ..
    https://x.com/dieworkwear/status/1847477200645451921
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,174
    It's the right question, but I've a horrible feeling that it doesn't have a stable answer.

    It's the human condition to often want to contradictory things. For my job to be stable, protected and well-paid, whist the stuff I buy is cheap. Homes for me and mine, but protecting the green belt. Freedom for me to go around as I please, but control of others. To have my cake, eat it and then get my cake back (by taking theirs).

    Write it down like that, and the flaw becomes obvious. As it does when the Israeli government acts to eradicate people from land that is reasonably theirs. Which is why it rarely is written down like that.

    "What would the world be like if everyone acted that way?" strikes me as an excellent question, especially when coupled with "what makes you think you will always be on the winning side?" Populism, it seems to me, rests on ignoring that question. Perhaps it's a set of painful consequences that society has to go through every few generations. Though I'd rather not be around when it does.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,209
    Fishing said:

    "What almost never seems to be asked of our two residents is: What is it that makes you pledge your support to such a flawed political project as ... Trump?"

    Actually this is often asked, in fact obsessively by some. Biden's whole economic policy, in restoring "good union jobs", however, flawed, can be seen as an attempt to bribe the white working class back into the Democratic fold that they have been fleeing since the 1960s.

    It clearly hasn't worked, either because it hasn't been done sufficiently, because it is completely impratical and counter-productive, or imo because the causes of the alienation of the WWC are mostly cultural rather than economic, but to say that this question is never asked is quite wrong.

    Fair challenge from both you and Nigelb.

    I guess when I think about politicians asking that question I really mean to include the idea that the politicians then implement a solution that makes a material difference to the lives of the white working class.

    So yes, there has been some rhetoric, but it has not been implemented well enough to create enough decent jobs to blunt Trump's appeal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,838
    Offensive as it is to compare Trump with Hamas, it's pretty offensive to compare Harris's attitude to US citizens to that of the Israeli government towards a population whose civilians it is killing in the tens of thousands.

    I'm not feeling this header.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    Kansas City didn’t seem to be doing too badly, when I was there a few weeks back. It had a homeless drug addiction problem, but which US city of any size does not?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,937

    The final two and a half weeks of the campaign should be given over to this discussion. Why is Trump the only candidate in modern history who has refused to make his medical records available? (Interesting side story on his records from 2016 being the subject of much tittle-tattle that he probably dictated the record himself...)

    At age 18 he wasn't fit enough to serve in Vietnam

    At age 78 he's the fittest man alive (he says)

    How does that work, exactly?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,838
    maxh said:

    Fishing said:

    "What almost never seems to be asked of our two residents is: What is it that makes you pledge your support to such a flawed political project as ... Trump?"

    Actually this is often asked, in fact obsessively by some. Biden's whole economic policy, in restoring "good union jobs", however, flawed, can be seen as an attempt to bribe the white working class back into the Democratic fold that they have been fleeing since the 1960s.

    It clearly hasn't worked, either because it hasn't been done sufficiently, because it is completely impratical and counter-productive, or imo because the causes of the alienation of the WWC are mostly cultural rather than economic, but to say that this question is never asked is quite wrong.

    Fair challenge from both you and Nigelb.

    I guess when I think about politicians asking that question I really mean to include the idea that the politicians then implement a solution that makes a material difference to the lives of the white working class.

    So yes, there has been some rhetoric, but it has not been implemented well enough to create enough decent jobs to blunt Trump's appeal.
    I appreciate the header, despite disagreeing vehemently with its thesis, which I think is entirely wrong.

    I think the question should really be: how has Trump, a rich man who offers no practical solutions to their problems, managed to connect emotionally to a large number of the economically troubled, and the Democrats, who have started to offer practical solutions, haven't.

    Now that is an interesting question.
  • Morning all. Is there any truth in the report that the UK government sent over some people to help get Harris elected? Personally I would like Harris to win the election. However if Trump wins this type of action will not help The Special Relationship.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,209
    Nigelb said:

    Take the specific example of clothing manufacturing cited in the header.

    Here's a long thread looking at the implications of Trump's suggested solution.

    Kevin raises an interesting point about how tariffs can be used to protect American intellectual property. Let's run through how this would work in the clothing industry. ..
    https://x.com/dieworkwear/status/1847477200645451921

    I completely agree Trump's solutions are, as I put it, deeply wrong. That thread you've linked to is instructive here, thanks.

    I also agree that, more so than many of the other Presidents around him, Biden got this and was trying to make changes to industrial policy.

    But until Trump's opponents are bold enough to make changes that visibly transform the flyover states, Trump's bold but bonkers solutions (and scapegoating of others such as migrants) will always have appeal.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,174
    Fishing said:

    "What almost never seems to be asked of our two residents is: What is it that makes you pledge your support to such a flawed political project as ... Trump?"

    Actually this is often asked, in fact obsessively by some. I've lost track of the number of documentaries I've seen and articles I've read where a condescending journalist visits a rust belt city to ask ordinary people how they can be so stupid as to vote for someone the journalist disagrees with - we had a fair few similar in this country after we voted Leave. Biden's whole economic policy, in restoring "good union jobs" through intervention, subsidies and protectionism, however flawed, can be seen as an attempt to bribe the white working class back into the Democratic fold that they have been fleeing since the 1960s.

    It clearly hasn't worked, either because it hasn't been done sufficiently, because it is completely impratical and counter-productive, or imo because the causes of the alienation of the WWC are mostly cultural rather than economic, but to say that this question is never asked is quite wrong.

    I think you're onto something with the cultural alienation... See also the plaintive "I just want my country back" comments this side of the pond. But I suspect that a fair bit of that is a lament for loss of youth and potency. People don't really want to go back to the 50s/60s. Those who post "we had frost on the windows and we grew up fine" memes overlap a lot with the winter fuel complainers.

    And the problem of impending death is one to which politics doesn't have an answer, except as something to talk about and take our minds off the subject.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,614
    edited October 19
    Neither Trump nor Harris are great candidates and both their voters are voting against the other.

    If Trump and Vance lose I doubt he runs again, he will be too old and GOP voters will either look for a more centrist candidate like Haley or evangelicals will conclude he wasn't hardline on abortion enough and look for a more socially conservative candidate like DeSantis or Pence
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,937
    edited October 19
    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    Fishing said:

    "What almost never seems to be asked of our two residents is: What is it that makes you pledge your support to such a flawed political project as ... Trump?"

    Actually this is often asked, in fact obsessively by some. Biden's whole economic policy, in restoring "good union jobs", however, flawed, can be seen as an attempt to bribe the white working class back into the Democratic fold that they have been fleeing since the 1960s.

    It clearly hasn't worked, either because it hasn't been done sufficiently, because it is completely impratical and counter-productive, or imo because the causes of the alienation of the WWC are mostly cultural rather than economic, but to say that this question is never asked is quite wrong.

    Fair challenge from both you and Nigelb.

    I guess when I think about politicians asking that question I really mean to include the idea that the politicians then implement a solution that makes a material difference to the lives of the white working class.

    So yes, there has been some rhetoric, but it has not been implemented well enough to create enough decent jobs to blunt Trump's appeal.
    I appreciate the header, despite disagreeing vehemently with its thesis, which I think is entirely wrong.

    I think the question should really be: how has Trump, a rich man who offers no practical solutions to their problems, managed to connect emotionally to a large number of the economically troubled, and the Democrats, who have started to offer practical solutions, haven't.

    Now that is an interesting question.
    Answered on a previous thread




    EDIT: In that sense Trump is exactly like Hamas. Hamas offer no solutions for the Palestinians, they just hate Jews
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,614

    Morning all. Is there any truth in the report that the UK government sent over some people to help get Harris elected? Personally I would like Harris to win the election. However if Trump wins this type of action will not help The Special Relationship.

    Central Office also sent Tory staffers to help Bush Snr in 1992 against Bill Clinton which soured Major's relationship a bit initially with him when Clinton won. They got over it though as Starmer would with Trump despite the Labour staffers being sent to help Harris, Starmer met Trump at Trump Tower of course a few weeks ago
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,000
    edited October 19
    maxh said:

    Fishing said:

    "What almost never seems to be asked of our two residents is: What is it that makes you pledge your support to such a flawed political project as ... Trump?"

    Actually this is often asked, in fact obsessively by some. Biden's whole economic policy, in restoring "good union jobs", however, flawed, can be seen as an attempt to bribe the white working class back into the Democratic fold that they have been fleeing since the 1960s.

    It clearly hasn't worked, either because it hasn't been done sufficiently, because it is completely impratical and counter-productive, or imo because the causes of the alienation of the WWC are mostly cultural rather than economic, but to say that this question is never asked is quite wrong.

    Fair challenge from both you and Nigelb.

    I guess when I think about politicians asking that question I really mean to include the idea that the politicians then implement a solution that makes a material difference to the lives of the white working class.

    So yes, there has been some rhetoric, but it has not been implemented well enough to create enough decent jobs to blunt Trump's appeal.
    No it's simply the wrong approach.

    America has plenty of decent jobs - of course not everybody has one, but enough exist that they can't by themselves explain how 80 million people will probably vote Trump in a fortnight.

    Trump's appeal is cultural, not economic. It's partly due to the ghastly celebrity-social media-reality TV world we have moved towards in the last couple of decades, and partly because white America's way of life has been under attack in many ways since the 1960s. White, Christian male supremacy, unthinking patriotism, heteronormativity, and similar have been questioned and undermined by liberal politicians, and Trump is the inevitable backlash. In addition, many of the decisions have been taken in the courts, so they have no democratic legitimacy, unlike, say, our vote to leave the EU.

    The Democrats can't really address those concerns without fracturing their own coalition, many of whom have of course benefited hugely from those policies. And, unlike economics, where you can often fudge and bribe individual groups, it is much more difficult to compromise when people frame issues as binary moral choices.

    That's the main reason why Trump may well win in a couple of weeks. Economics may exacerbate discontent, but it is a much more marginal cause than many would like to believe.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,423
    Scott_xP said:

    The final two and a half weeks of the campaign should be given over to this discussion. Why is Trump the only candidate in modern history who has refused to make his medical records available? (Interesting side story on his records from 2016 being the subject of much tittle-tattle that he probably dictated the record himself...)

    At age 18 he wasn't fit enough to serve in Vietnam

    At age 78 he's the fittest man alive (he says)

    How does that work, exactly?
    When I was 18, I had a significant health issue which caused me periodic intense pain. Aged 51, I am running regularly and do sprint triathlons.

    So yes, it is possible to have health problems / not be fit enough at a young age, but be much fitter at an older age. I don't think that's massively uncommon either, with people who were unfit as children or teenagers finding an activity they like/ can do when they are older.

    Not golf, though...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,603
    Two strategic challenges that Harris is struggling with

    1) It’s a change election, but she is tied to the previous administration
    2) The Dems are being asked to provide sensible moderate option, when their background is more radical

    One of the interesting developments in politics in the last 20 years is how the left became conservative and the right became radical.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Comparisons fall down between Hamas and Trump because the essential situation Hamas is in relative to Israel is "The strong do what they can; the weak suffer what they must". There is no morality to the situation. Hamas aren't better than Israel. They are just weaker and that weakness drives their behaviour.

    This isn't remotely the situation Trump is in.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,209
    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    Fishing said:

    "What almost never seems to be asked of our two residents is: What is it that makes you pledge your support to such a flawed political project as ... Trump?"

    Actually this is often asked, in fact obsessively by some. Biden's whole economic policy, in restoring "good union jobs", however, flawed, can be seen as an attempt to bribe the white working class back into the Democratic fold that they have been fleeing since the 1960s.

    It clearly hasn't worked, either because it hasn't been done sufficiently, because it is completely impratical and counter-productive, or imo because the causes of the alienation of the WWC are mostly cultural rather than economic, but to say that this question is never asked is quite wrong.

    Fair challenge from both you and Nigelb.

    I guess when I think about politicians asking that question I really mean to include the idea that the politicians then implement a solution that makes a material difference to the lives of the white working class.

    So yes, there has been some rhetoric, but it has not been implemented well enough to create enough decent jobs to blunt Trump's appeal.
    I appreciate the header, despite disagreeing vehemently with its thesis, which I think is entirely wrong.

    I think the question should really be: how has Trump, a rich man who offers no practical solutions to their problems, managed to connect emotionally to a large number of the economically troubled, and the Democrats, who have started to offer practical solutions, haven't.

    Now that is an interesting question.
    Fair enough. I appreciate the engagement with it nevertheless, and the challenge.

    I agree yours is a good question, and I think the answer lies partly in the general mistrust of politicians. Biden has made some progress with practical solutions but unless and until a potential Trump voter feels the material difference to their own life, statistics on improvements nationally won't move them much because many won't really trust them.

    Of course that mistrust can then be manipulated further - cf Trump's blatant lies about his own record on jobs and employment.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,937
    FF43 said:

    Comparisons fall down between Hamas and Trump because the essential situation Hamas is in relative to Israel is "The strong do what they can; the weak suffer what they must". There is no morality to the situation. Hamas aren't better than Israel. They are just weaker and that weakness drives their behaviour.

    This isn't remotely the situation Trump is in.

    That's exactly the pitch Trump is making

    "America has been weakened by Liberals. I will make it Great and Strong again"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,465
    edited October 19
    HYUFD said:

    Neither Trump nor Harris are great candidates and both their voters are voting against the other.

    If Trump and Vance lose I doubt he runs again, he will be too old and GOP voters will either look for a more centrist candidate like Haley or evangelicals will conclude he wasn't hardline on abortion enough and look for a more socially conservative candidate like DeSantis

    Trump won't run again. Imagine the farting, shitting, drooling sack of gibberish-spouting broken body he will represent at the present rate of decline. He might get lucky: Putin's pursuit of the Elixir of Life might deliver. And Putin might repay him for Trump's gift of Covid testing machines with a small phial of the stuff. But Trump's hope of running again pretty much depend upon that scenario.

    Whether Vance can pick up the smouldering embers of MAGA is questionable. With Trump beaten, we may see a rebuilding of the Republican Party. Whether the rebuild can prise the loonier end of MAGA back will partly depend upon how much Marxism Harris has delivered. It probably won't happen by 2028 anyway. A new formal MAGA Party might get funded by MUSK, splitting the American right for a couple of elections beyond that. By which time for example the composition of the Supreme Court will look very different. Rowe v Wade will be reinstated - with safeguards - in a way that takes it out of politics. Possibly even the right to bear arms will have reduced the types of arms that can be borne - and where.

    We might return to an era when elections in the US are decided by the economy, stupid.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Scott_xP said:

    FF43 said:

    Comparisons fall down between Hamas and Trump because the essential situation Hamas is in relative to Israel is "The strong do what they can; the weak suffer what they must". There is no morality to the situation. Hamas aren't better than Israel. They are just weaker and that weakness drives their behaviour.

    This isn't remotely the situation Trump is in.

    That's exactly the pitch Trump is making

    "America has been weakened by Liberals. I will make it Great and Strong again"
    I don't think it is exactly the same pitch. In any case the dynamic against an imagined enemy is different from confronting a real and brutal ultimatum.
  • ajbajb Posts: 147

    It's not really clear that the Israeli government even tries to gain support from Palestinians. They should have learned by now the lesson of Machiavelli:

    Some may wonder how it can happen that Agathocles, and his like, after infinite treacheries and cruelties, should live for long secure in his country, and defend himself from external enemies, and never be conspired against by his own citizens; seeing that many others, by means of cruelty, have never been able even in peaceful times to hold the state, still less in the doubtful times of war. I believe that this follows from severities being badly or properly used. Those may be called properly used, if of evil it is possible to speak well, that are applied at one blow and are necessary to one’s security, and that are not persisted in afterwards unless they can be turned to the advantage of the subjects. The badly employed are those which, notwithstanding they may be few in the commencement, multiply with time rather than decrease. Those who practise the first system are able, by aid of God or man, to mitigate in some degree their rule, as Agathocles did. It is impossible for those who follow the other to maintain themselves.

    Hence it is to be remarked that, in seizing a state, the usurper ought to examine closely into all those injuries which it is necessary for him to inflict, and to do them all at one stroke so as not to have to repeat them daily; and thus by not unsettling men he will be able to reassure them, and win them to himself by benefits. He who does otherwise, either from timidity or evil advice, is always compelled to keep the knife in his hand; neither can he rely on his subjects, nor can they attach themselves to him, owing to their continued and repeated wrongs. For injuries ought to be done all at one time, so that, being tasted less, they offend less; benefits ought to be given little by little, so that the flavour of them may last longer.

    And above all things, a prince ought to live amongst his people in such a way that no unexpected circumstances, whether of good or evil, shall make him change; because if the necessity for this comes in troubled times, you are too late for harsh measures; and mild ones will not help you, for they will be considered as forced from you, and no one will be under any obligation to you for them.


  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,741
    Mr. Divvie, without commenting specifically on the generation aspect, if someone has something (in your example, good fortune) for their whole lives and then lose it, it's natural for them to feel like a natural entitlement is being ripped away. Or that the world has suddenly turned on them.

    It'd be interesting, as well as hopeful, to see how the youngest adult generation's perspective might change if things became a lot better (say, houses becoming affordable).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,233
    malcolmg said:

    first

    Good morning Malc! Hope you're well?
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,209
    Fishing said:

    maxh said:

    Fishing said:

    "What almost never seems to be asked of our two residents is: What is it that makes you pledge your support to such a flawed political project as ... Trump?"

    Actually this is often asked, in fact obsessively by some. Biden's whole economic policy, in restoring "good union jobs", however, flawed, can be seen as an attempt to bribe the white working class back into the Democratic fold that they have been fleeing since the 1960s.

    It clearly hasn't worked, either because it hasn't been done sufficiently, because it is completely impratical and counter-productive, or imo because the causes of the alienation of the WWC are mostly cultural rather than economic, but to say that this question is never asked is quite wrong.

    Fair challenge from both you and Nigelb.

    I guess when I think about politicians asking that question I really mean to include the idea that the politicians then implement a solution that makes a material difference to the lives of the white working class.

    So yes, there has been some rhetoric, but it has not been implemented well enough to create enough decent jobs to blunt Trump's appeal.
    No it's simply the wrong approach.

    America has plenty of decent jobs - of course not everybody has one, but enough exist that they can't by themselves explain how 80 million people will probably vote Trump in a fortnight.

    Trump's appeal is cultural, not economic. It's partly due to the ghastly celebrity-social media-reality TV world we have moved towards in the last couple of decades, and partly because white America's way of life has been under attack in many ways since the 1960s. White, Christian male supremacy, unthinking patriotism, heteronormativity, and similar have been questioned and undermined by liberal politicians, and Trump is the inevitable backlash. In addition, many of the decisions have been taken in the courts, so they have no democratic legitimacy, unlike, say, our vote to leave the EU.

    The Democrats can't really address those concerns without fracturing their own coalition, many of whom have of course benefited hugely from those policies. And, unlike economics, where you can often fudge and bribe individual groups, it is much more difficult to compromise when people frame issues as binary moral choices.

    That's the main reason why Trump may well win in a couple of weeks. Economics may exacerbate discontent, but it is a much more marginal cause than many would like to believe.
    I agree with much of that, thanks. Especially the point about see decisions being taken in the courts not in the ballot box.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,894

    Morning all. Is there any truth in the report that the UK government sent over some people to help get Harris elected? Personally I would like Harris to win the election. However if Trump wins this type of action will not help The Special Relationship.

    No. The UK government has not done that.

    Some Labour Party staffers are campaigning for Harris. They are volunteers. This has happened in previous elections and with other parties.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,937
    Fishing said:

    In addition, many of the decisions have been taken in the courts, so they have no democratic legitimacy, unlike, say, our vote to leave the EU.

    The difference of course being that the Judges in the US are political appointees.

    The Supreme Court killing Roe v Wade was "legitimate" cos Trump appointed them...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,234
    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,961
    ajb said:


    It's not really clear that the Israeli government even tries to gain support from Palestinians. They should have learned by now the lesson of Machiavelli:

    Some may wonder how it can happen that Agathocles, and his like, after infinite treacheries and cruelties, should live for long secure in his country, and defend himself from external enemies, and never be conspired against by his own citizens; seeing that many others, by means of cruelty, have never been able even in peaceful times to hold the state, still less in the doubtful times of war. I believe that this follows from severities being badly or properly used. Those may be called properly used, if of evil it is possible to speak well, that are applied at one blow and are necessary to one’s security, and that are not persisted in afterwards unless they can be turned to the advantage of the subjects. The badly employed are those which, notwithstanding they may be few in the commencement, multiply with time rather than decrease. Those who practise the first system are able, by aid of God or man, to mitigate in some degree their rule, as Agathocles did. It is impossible for those who follow the other to maintain themselves.

    Hence it is to be remarked that, in seizing a state, the usurper ought to examine closely into all those injuries which it is necessary for him to inflict, and to do them all at one stroke so as not to have to repeat them daily; and thus by not unsettling men he will be able to reassure them, and win them to himself by benefits. He who does otherwise, either from timidity or evil advice, is always compelled to keep the knife in his hand; neither can he rely on his subjects, nor can they attach themselves to him, owing to their continued and repeated wrongs. For injuries ought to be done all at one time, so that, being tasted less, they offend less; benefits ought to be given little by little, so that the flavour of them may last longer.

    And above all things, a prince ought to live amongst his people in such a way that no unexpected circumstances, whether of good or evil, shall make him change; because if the necessity for this comes in troubled times, you are too late for harsh measures; and mild ones will not help you, for they will be considered as forced from you, and no one will be under any obligation to you for them.


    The Tim Parks translation in the Penguin Classics series (first published 2009) is much more readable. The passage you quote is rendered by Parks at the end of the "States Won By Crime" chapter as "You might well wonder how on earth, after all their countless betrayals and cruelties..."
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,234
    Fishing said:

    maxh said:

    Fishing said:

    "What almost never seems to be asked of our two residents is: What is it that makes you pledge your support to such a flawed political project as ... Trump?"

    Actually this is often asked, in fact obsessively by some. Biden's whole economic policy, in restoring "good union jobs", however, flawed, can be seen as an attempt to bribe the white working class back into the Democratic fold that they have been fleeing since the 1960s.

    It clearly hasn't worked, either because it hasn't been done sufficiently, because it is completely impratical and counter-productive, or imo because the causes of the alienation of the WWC are mostly cultural rather than economic, but to say that this question is never asked is quite wrong.

    Fair challenge from both you and Nigelb.

    I guess when I think about politicians asking that question I really mean to include the idea that the politicians then implement a solution that makes a material difference to the lives of the white working class.

    So yes, there has been some rhetoric, but it has not been implemented well enough to create enough decent jobs to blunt Trump's appeal.
    No it's simply the wrong approach.

    America has plenty of decent jobs - of course not everybody has one, but enough exist that they can't by themselves explain how 80 million people will probably vote Trump in a fortnight.

    Trump's appeal is cultural, not economic. It's partly due to the ghastly celebrity-social media-reality TV world we have moved towards in the last couple of decades, and partly because white America's way of life has been under attack in many ways since the 1960s. White, Christian male supremacy, unthinking patriotism, heteronormativity, and similar have been questioned and undermined by liberal politicians, and Trump is the inevitable backlash. In addition, many of the decisions have been taken in the courts, so they have no democratic legitimacy, unlike, say, our vote to leave the EU.

    The Democrats can't really address those concerns without fracturing their own coalition, many of whom have of course benefited hugely from those policies. And, unlike economics, where you can often fudge and bribe individual groups, it is much more difficult to compromise when people frame issues as binary moral choices.

    That's the main reason why Trump may well win in a couple of weeks. Economics may exacerbate discontent, but it is a much more marginal cause than many would like to believe.
    That's a good answer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,252
    Take a resident of the Gaza strip that has seen successive political leaders fail to achieve Palestinian statehood, has experienced ongoing harassment and attacks from Israeli forces, and has been subjected to settler colonisation about which they feel utterly powerless to do anything.

    While not disagreeing with many points in here, the Israelis withdrew from Gaza almost twenty years ago - roughly half the population of Gaza wasn’t even born then. The settler colonisation is in the Fatah-controlled West Bank.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    It is true that the vast majority of us really cannot understand why about 45% of Americans favour Trump or why the Palestinians have put up with the catastrophically poor leadership of Hamas.

    My tentative answer in both cases is a feeling of powerlessness. Americans in the flyover states see a country where the media, the money, the humour and pretty much everything else is dominated by the east and west coasts. They are ignored and so are their interests. Trump claims to be running against this elite so they follow him. They want to go back to a largely mythical time when all of America counted.

    For the Palestinians the way they have been treated is far crueller than anything that has happened to the flyover states of the US. Hamas try to strike back against their oppressors. They are not particularly good at it and the price paid for their actions by other Palestinians is horrendous but at least they try to do something.

    Neither of these answers is particularly satisfactory. Any casual examination of what policies Trump has, such as high tariffs, should make it obvious that this would make things more expensive for the residents of the flyover states and do nothing for their welfare. Anyone looking at the horror that is Gaza would see the consequences of Hamas's plans. But if you are desperate, truly desperate, then something just might seem better than nothing. It is a modest strike against the powers that be but just maybe it stops you being taken for granted.

    How should the likes of Harris respond? She needs to show that she cares. Biden has had a pretty good record in this respect and she is trying to build on it. Israel needs to think what they are offering Palestinians going forward and to be constructive. Both will find this a challenge.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,234
    Scott_xP said:

    FF43 said:

    Comparisons fall down between Hamas and Trump because the essential situation Hamas is in relative to Israel is "The strong do what they can; the weak suffer what they must". There is no morality to the situation. Hamas aren't better than Israel. They are just weaker and that weakness drives their behaviour.

    This isn't remotely the situation Trump is in.

    That's exactly the pitch Trump is making

    "America has been weakened by Liberals. I will make it Great and Strong again"
    If an election choice here was between Nigel Farage and Cherie Blair, you might find a lot of people plumped for Farage to stop Cherie Blair.

    Endless stories about what Farage had said and done in the past would then largely prove politically ineffective in that campaign.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,233

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    Well the Dems have put up two absolutely terrible candidates in Joe and Kamala.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,894
    Fishing said:

    maxh said:

    Fishing said:

    "What almost never seems to be asked of our two residents is: What is it that makes you pledge your support to such a flawed political project as ... Trump?"

    Actually this is often asked, in fact obsessively by some. Biden's whole economic policy, in restoring "good union jobs", however, flawed, can be seen as an attempt to bribe the white working class back into the Democratic fold that they have been fleeing since the 1960s.

    It clearly hasn't worked, either because it hasn't been done sufficiently, because it is completely impratical and counter-productive, or imo because the causes of the alienation of the WWC are mostly cultural rather than economic, but to say that this question is never asked is quite wrong.

    Fair challenge from both you and Nigelb.

    I guess when I think about politicians asking that question I really mean to include the idea that the politicians then implement a solution that makes a material difference to the lives of the white working class.

    So yes, there has been some rhetoric, but it has not been implemented well enough to create enough decent jobs to blunt Trump's appeal.
    No it's simply the wrong approach.

    America has plenty of decent jobs - of course not everybody has one, but enough exist that they can't by themselves explain how 80 million people will probably vote Trump in a fortnight.

    Trump's appeal is cultural, not economic. It's partly due to the ghastly celebrity-social media-reality TV world we have moved towards in the last couple of decades, and partly because white America's way of life has been under attack in many ways since the 1960s. White, Christian male supremacy, unthinking patriotism, heteronormativity, and similar have been questioned and undermined by liberal politicians, and Trump is the inevitable backlash. In addition, many of the decisions have been taken in the courts, so they have no democratic legitimacy, unlike, say, our vote to leave the EU.

    The Democrats can't really address those concerns without fracturing their own coalition, many of whom have of course benefited hugely from those policies. And, unlike economics, where you can often fudge and bribe individual groups, it is much more difficult to compromise when people frame issues as binary moral choices.

    That's the main reason why Trump may well win in a couple of weeks. Economics may exacerbate discontent, but it is a much more marginal cause than many would like to believe.
    You say many of the decisions have been taken in the courts. Of late, big decisions like removing the right to abortion, giving the President immunity from crimes, expanding rights to gun ownership, curtailing the powers of government agencies, increasing the secret money in campaigning have been taken in the courts but are core Republican issues.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    I think it’s easy to see why millions will hold their nose and vote for Trump. Because this government has been a historic catastrophe.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,284

    HYUFD said:

    Neither Trump nor Harris are great candidates and both their voters are voting against the other.

    If Trump and Vance lose I doubt he runs again, he will be too old and GOP voters will either look for a more centrist candidate like Haley or evangelicals will conclude he wasn't hardline on abortion enough and look for a more socially conservative candidate like DeSantis

    Trump won't run again. Imagine the farting, shitting, drooling sack of gibberish-spouting a broken body he will represent at the present rate of decline. He might get lucky: Putin's pursuit of the Elixir of Life might deliver. And Putin might repay him for Trump's gift of Covid testing machines with a small phial of the stuff. But Trump's hope of running again pretty much depend upon that scenario.

    Whether Vance can pick up the smouldering embers of MAGA is questionable. With Trump beaten, we may see a rebuilding of the Replican Party. Whether the rebuild can prise the loonier end of MAGA back will partly depend upon how much Marxism Harris has delivered. It probabl won't happen by 2028 anyway. A new formal MAGA Party might get funded by MUSK, splitting the American right for couple of elections beyond that. By which time for example the composition of the Supreme Court will look very different. Rowe v Wade will be reinstated - with safeguards - in a way that takes it out of politics. Possibly even the right to bear armswill have reduced the types of arms tghat can be borne - and where.

    We might return to an era when elections in the US are decided by the economy, stupid.
    Apparently he's been incontinent for around 25 years, and he still got over the line in 2016 and came close in the swing states in 2020. Voters are either unaware, don't believe his frailties or don't care as the US careers headlong into a dystopian nightmare.

    The problem we have is an unbridled media where absolute and unquestionable lies are left absolutely unquestioned. Newsmax just repeating Trump fiction. Jesse Watters seeing a statesmanlike performance when the rest of us see a Trump train wreck, and vice versa with Harris. Even the serious, relatively non-partisans are at it, the Washington Post fact checking Harris whilst not bothering with Trump, presumably on the expectations that every word uttered is 24 carat bullshine.

    Fifty percent of US voters are gullible and whereas Biden was vilified on TV for combining genuine short term illness (probably COVID) alongside some of the age related symptoms associated with a high functioning octogenarian, Trump on the other hand is perfectly entitled to talk in utter gibberish and crap his pants without comment.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,937

    If an election choice here was between Nigel Farage and Cherie Blair, you might find a lot of people plumped for Farage to stop Cherie Blair.

    Endless stories about what Farage had said and done in the past would then largely prove politically ineffective in that campaign.

    Yes

    As posted upthread, lots of people would vote for Nigel Fucking Farage cos "he hates the same people I do", like Cherie Blair
  • He is a liberal. She is a liberal! I believe that was the pitch George Bush senior made about Michel Dukakis. Trump is following the same playbook. Some things never change!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,894

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.

    b. Racism is popular.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,284

    Scott_xP said:

    FF43 said:

    Comparisons fall down between Hamas and Trump because the essential situation Hamas is in relative to Israel is "The strong do what they can; the weak suffer what they must". There is no morality to the situation. Hamas aren't better than Israel. They are just weaker and that weakness drives their behaviour.

    This isn't remotely the situation Trump is in.

    That's exactly the pitch Trump is making

    "America has been weakened by Liberals. I will make it Great and Strong again"
    If an election choice here was between Nigel Farage and Cherie Blair, you might find a lot of people plumped for Farage to stop Cherie Blair.

    Endless stories about what Farage had said and done in the past would then largely prove politically ineffective in that campaign.
    Cherie Blair? That was a bit left field.

    You had the exact same scenario when the combatants were Corbyn and Johnson. A choice between the unelectable and the unpalatable. Either way one knew it would end in tears, but there was a least a hope with Johnson that he wasn't as bad as we thought. Farage doesn't enjoy that luxury. We all know he's a ****. That is not to say if he conjures up enough snake oil we won't buy it.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,894
    ydoethur said:

    Take a resident of the Gaza strip that has seen successive political leaders fail to achieve Palestinian statehood, has experienced ongoing harassment and attacks from Israeli forces, and has been subjected to settler colonisation about which they feel utterly powerless to do anything.

    While not disagreeing with many points in here, the Israelis withdrew from Gaza almost twenty years ago - roughly half the population of Gaza wasn’t even born then. The settler colonisation is in the Fatah-controlled West Bank.

    Yes, but those in Gaza are well aware of what is happening to their countrymen in the West Bank.
  • Nige. They would vote for him to stop Blair. He would get a better offer once he was in office and resign. He is the Jack Sparrow of Politics.
  • Elon will run for president after this election. He needs to change some laws in Congress and the Senate. Best man for the job.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.

    b. Racism is popular.
    Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,553
    The people lamenting the passing of hard working, low paid textile jobs in Kansas City are likely people who wouldn't have wanted one, wouldn't have lasted a week doing one and would have had a crap standard of living even if they had done so.

    Similarly you get people in this country yearning after some mythic version of 1960s textile mills and coal mines.

    The reality is that the low skilled have always had difficult lives and always will.

    The only variants being how much wealth they were born into and how willing their country has been to subsidise them through welfare and public services.

    The way to get on has always been to improve your skillset so that you can get a higher skilled job with higher pay.
  • The Newfeed does not always tell one anything worthwhile. Doing your own in depth research on different issues is the way to go.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,894
    DavidL said:

    It is true that the vast majority of us really cannot understand why about 45% of Americans favour Trump or why the Palestinians have put up with the catastrophically poor leadership of Hamas.

    My tentative answer in both cases is a feeling of powerlessness. Americans in the flyover states see a country where the media, the money, the humour and pretty much everything else is dominated by the east and west coasts. They are ignored and so are their interests. Trump claims to be running against this elite so they follow him. They want to go back to a largely mythical time when all of America counted.

    For the Palestinians the way they have been treated is far crueller than anything that has happened to the flyover states of the US. Hamas try to strike back against their oppressors. They are not particularly good at it and the price paid for their actions by other Palestinians is horrendous but at least they try to do something.

    Neither of these answers is particularly satisfactory. Any casual examination of what policies Trump has, such as high tariffs, should make it obvious that this would make things more expensive for the residents of the flyover states and do nothing for their welfare. Anyone looking at the horror that is Gaza would see the consequences of Hamas's plans. But if you are desperate, truly desperate, then something just might seem better than nothing. It is a modest strike against the powers that be but just maybe it stops you being taken for granted.

    How should the likes of Harris respond? She needs to show that she cares. Biden has had a pretty good record in this respect and she is trying to build on it. Israel needs to think what they are offering Palestinians going forward and to be constructive. Both will find this a challenge.

    On Palestine… the Palestinians have “put up” with the catastrophically bad leadership of Hamas because Hamas has led a military dictatorship. Gazans haven’t had elections. In polling, a majority of Gazans don’t support Hamas.

    On the US… Trump hasn’t won just because of flyover states. Trump gets tens of millions of votes on the east and west coasts. He’s won with east coast states in the South. His biggest electoral vote wins in 2016 were Florida and Texas.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,249
    DavidL said:



    How should the likes of Harris respond? She needs to show that she cares. Biden has had a pretty good record in this respect and she is trying to build on it. Israel needs to think what they are offering Palestinians going forward and to be constructive. Both will find this a challenge.

    Bibi and his supporters can only offer the Palestinians a boot, trampling their faces - forever. They are completely graceless in victory.
  • Nige was brought up in the world of stocks and shares and had a lot of fun on the London Metal Exchange.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,937
    moonshine said:

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.

    b. Racism is popular.
    Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).
    It really did

    Brexit voters hate foreigners. Nige campaigned on hating foreigners. Won the vote
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,764

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    I agree. I have asked the same question here several times. I don't understand it. I have read the replies to your post and none convince me so I am still stumped.

    The only rational explanation is 50% of Americans are stupid and that just can't be true.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,894
    moonshine said:

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.

    b. Racism is popular.
    Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).
    Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.

    Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 678
    Fishing said:

    maxh said:

    Fishing said:

    "What almost never seems to be asked of our two residents is: What is it that makes you pledge your support to such a flawed political project as ... Trump?"

    Actually this is often asked, in fact obsessively by some. Biden's whole economic policy, in restoring "good union jobs", however, flawed, can be seen as an attempt to bribe the white working class back into the Democratic fold that they have been fleeing since the 1960s.

    It clearly hasn't worked, either because it hasn't been done sufficiently, because it is completely impratical and counter-productive, or imo because the causes of the alienation of the WWC are mostly cultural rather than economic, but to say that this question is never asked is quite wrong.

    Fair challenge from both you and Nigelb.

    I guess when I think about politicians asking that question I really mean to include the idea that the politicians then implement a solution that makes a material difference to the lives of the white working class.

    So yes, there has been some rhetoric, but it has not been implemented well enough to create enough decent jobs to blunt Trump's appeal.
    No it's simply the wrong approach.

    America has plenty of decent jobs - of course not everybody has one, but enough exist that they can't by themselves explain how 80 million people will probably vote Trump in a fortnight.

    Trump's appeal is cultural, not economic. It's partly due to the ghastly celebrity-social media-reality TV world we have moved towards in the last couple of decades, and partly because white America's way of life has been under attack in many ways since the 1960s. White, Christian male supremacy, unthinking patriotism, heteronormativity, and similar have been questioned and undermined by liberal politicians, and Trump is the inevitable backlash. In addition, many of the decisions have been taken in the courts, so they have no democratic legitimacy, unlike, say, our vote to leave the EU.

    The Democrats can't really address those concerns without fracturing their own coalition, many of whom have of course benefited hugely from those policies. And, unlike economics, where you can often fudge and bribe individual groups, it is much more difficult to compromise when people frame issues as binary moral choices.

    That's the main reason why Trump may well win in a couple of weeks. Economics may exacerbate discontent, but it is a much more marginal cause than many would like to believe.
    Allied to this, I think Trump's appeal is partly nostalgia. He's such a recognisably 80s stereotype with his big suits, Gordon Gecko esque business approach, fondness for golf and the YMCA that he appears comforting to a lot of people. Biden had a bit of this as a representative of a vanished political age. When national circumstances become challenging people like these kind of figures, it's a bit like the image Harold Macmillan tried to cultivate.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,249
    kjh said:

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    I agree. I have asked the same question here several times. I don't understand it. I have read the replies to your post and none convince me so I am still stumped.

    The only rational explanation is 50% of Americans are stupid and that just can't be true.
    Many Trump supporters are stupid, but I suspect that more of them are people who see themselves as being on the slide, and who fear to slide further.

    Others are entirely cynical, like Ann Coulter. Nobody gets to edit the Michigan Law Review by being stupid.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,937
    Sean_F said:

    kjh said:

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    I agree. I have asked the same question here several times. I don't understand it. I have read the replies to your post and none convince me so I am still stumped.

    The only rational explanation is 50% of Americans are stupid and that just can't be true.
    Many Trump supporters are stupid, but I suspect that more of them are people who see themselves as being on the slide, and who fear to slide further.

    Others are entirely cynical, like Ann Coulter. Nobody gets to edit the Michigan Law Review by being stupid.
    She hates the same people Trump does
  • ajbajb Posts: 147
    viewcode said:

    ajb said:


    It's not really clear that the Israeli government even tries to gain support from Palestinians. They should have learned by now the lesson of Machiavelli:

    Some may wonder how it can happen that Agathocles, and his like, after infinite treacheries and cruelties, should live for long secure in his country, and defend himself from external enemies, and never be conspired against by his own citizens; seeing that many others, by means of cruelty, have never been able even in peaceful times to hold the state, still less in the doubtful times of war. I believe that this follows from severities being badly or properly used. Those may be called properly used, if of evil it is possible to speak well, that are applied at one blow and are necessary to one’s security, and that are not persisted in afterwards unless they can be turned to the advantage of the subjects. The badly employed are those which, notwithstanding they may be few in the commencement, multiply with time rather than decrease. Those who practise the first system are able, by aid of God or man, to mitigate in some degree their rule, as Agathocles did. It is impossible for those who follow the other to maintain themselves.

    Hence it is to be remarked that, in seizing a state, the usurper ought to examine closely into all those injuries which it is necessary for him to inflict, and to do them all at one stroke so as not to have to repeat them daily; and thus by not unsettling men he will be able to reassure them, and win them to himself by benefits. He who does otherwise, either from timidity or evil advice, is always compelled to keep the knife in his hand; neither can he rely on his subjects, nor can they attach themselves to him, owing to their continued and repeated wrongs. For injuries ought to be done all at one time, so that, being tasted less, they offend less; benefits ought to be given little by little, so that the flavour of them may last longer.

    And above all things, a prince ought to live amongst his people in such a way that no unexpected circumstances, whether of good or evil, shall make him change; because if the necessity for this comes in troubled times, you are too late for harsh measures; and mild ones will not help you, for they will be considered as forced from you, and no one will be under any obligation to you for them.


    The Tim Parks translation in the Penguin Classics series (first published 2009) is much more readable. The passage you quote is rendered by Parks at the end of the "States Won By Crime" chapter as "You might well wonder how on earth, after all their countless betrayals and cruelties..."
    Nice! This one is out of copyright, so safe to quote. Although a section of this size is probably fair use.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,689
    kjh said:

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    I agree. I have asked the same question here several times. I don't understand it. I have read the replies to your post and none convince me so I am still stumped.

    The only rational explanation is 50% of Americans are stupid and that just can't be true.
    They fear the other lot more.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,249
    US pessimism makes little sense. There’s likely to be only one superpower in 2100, namely the USA.
  • Yes. Brexit. Nige. The haters. Fancy a pint in the Spoons in Clacton or Gravesend? Bless them all. Most of the haters I have met suffer with depression. They are also in denial as they are scared of addressing their negative set behavioral patterns and modifying them. If they did they would become better and happier people. Better to stay in the black hole of misery and despair than actually do anything about any issues that need to be resolved with their personality. Or Blame foreigners for everything or your neighbours Labrador.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,689

    moonshine said:

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.

    b. Racism is popular.
    Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).
    Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.

    Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
    Whereas Kamala's twitter post about all the stuff she'd for for black men was entirely colourblind?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,874
    Scott_xP said:

    moonshine said:

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.

    b. Racism is popular.
    Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).
    It really did

    Brexit voters hate foreigners. Nige campaigned on hating foreigners. Won the vote
    substitute brown people for foreigners and that would be about right.
  • The last comment I totally agree with.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,553

    Yes. Brexit. Nige. The haters. Fancy a pint in the Spoons in Clacton or Gravesend? Bless them all. Most of the haters I have met suffer with depression. They are also in denial as they are scared of addressing their negative set behavioral patterns and modifying them. If they did they would become better and happier people. Better to stay in the black hole of misery and despair than actually do anything about any issues that need to be resolved with their personality. Or Blame foreigners for everything or your neighbours Labrador.

    There's certainly an element like that.

    And there are similar elements who vote for other parties but have their own hate lists.

    Blaming others is preferable to blaming yourself and easier than changing your own life for the better.
  • Richard. You are totally correct.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,894
    Cookie said:

    moonshine said:

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.

    b. Racism is popular.
    Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).
    Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.

    Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
    Whereas Kamala's twitter post about all the stuff she'd for for black men was entirely colourblind?
    Cookie, you are not stupid. You know which of the two campaigns is racist. Harris highlighting policies that benefit one group is not the same as Trump calling immigrants “animals” or saying Jews would be to blame if he lost.
  • Sean_F said:

    kjh said:

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    I agree. I have asked the same question here several times. I don't understand it. I have read the replies to your post and none convince me so I am still stumped.

    The only rational explanation is 50% of Americans are stupid and that just can't be true.
    Many Trump supporters are stupid, but I suspect that more of them are people who see themselves as being on the slide, and who fear to slide further.

    Others are entirely cynical, like Ann Coulter. Nobody gets to edit the Michigan Law Review by being stupid.
    The old "everyone who thinks and votes differently is stupid" meme. As old as time itself.
  • Excellent piece, Max.

    I am Peter the Punter, and I approve your message.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,949

    The people lamenting the passing of hard working, low paid textile jobs in Kansas City are likely people who wouldn't have wanted one, wouldn't have lasted a week doing one and would have had a crap standard of living even if they had done so.

    Similarly you get people in this country yearning after some mythic version of 1960s textile mills and coal mines.

    The reality is that the low skilled have always had difficult lives and always will.

    The only variants being how much wealth they were born into and how willing their country has been to subsidise them through welfare and public services.

    The way to get on has always been to improve your skillset so that you can get a higher skilled job with higher pay.

    There’s plenty of evidence that people who lost such jobs wanted them back and morned them for a long, long time.

    Nearly none of the miners took the compensation and left the one-industry villages. The sad thing was that it had been government policy since the war to discourage other industry in the mining areas. The civil servants were worried they’d would lose the workforce… In the end they needn’t have worried.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,249

    Yes. Brexit. Nige. The haters. Fancy a pint in the Spoons in Clacton or Gravesend? Bless them all. Most of the haters I have met suffer with depression. They are also in denial as they are scared of addressing their negative set behavioral patterns and modifying them. If they did they would become better and happier people. Better to stay in the black hole of misery and despair than actually do anything about any issues that need to be resolved with their personality. Or Blame foreigners for everything or your neighbours Labrador.

    There's certainly an element like that.

    And there are similar elements who vote for other parties but have their own hate lists.

    Blaming others is preferable to blaming yourself and easier than changing your own life for the better.
    Someone else is to blame is by far the most popular argument, right, left, and centre.

    Hence the stupidity of Mexico’s new President starting a stupid row with Spain, by demanding an apology for the actions of Cortes.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,466

    It's the right question, but I've a horrible feeling that it doesn't have a stable answer.

    It's the human condition to often want to contradictory things. For my job to be stable, protected and well-paid, whist the stuff I buy is cheap. Homes for me and mine, but protecting the green belt. Freedom for me to go around as I please, but control of others. To have my cake, eat it and then get my cake back (by taking theirs).

    Write it down like that, and the flaw becomes obvious. As it does when the Israeli government acts to eradicate people from land that is reasonably theirs. Which is why it rarely is written down like that.

    "What would the world be like if everyone acted that way?" strikes me as an excellent question, especially when coupled with "what makes you think you will always be on the winning side?" Populism, it seems to me, rests on ignoring that question. Perhaps it's a set of painful consequences that society has to go through every few generations. Though I'd rather not be around when it does.

    Thanks. Fascinating. On the human condition wanting contradictory things, this is not soluble in the customary rational way. We want contradictory things for a reason. And that fundamental reason is that human existence requires both competition and cooperation. This cannot be broken down into a simpler formula.

    In politics, very broadly, leftism emphasises cooperation as a fundamental concept; and rightist/populist emphasises competition as a fundamental concept. These are both nice and simple, and of course wrong, being in conflict with human nature and human needs in essential ways.

    The entire of centrist politics - and this is why it's so boring and you have to read the Economist and Adam Smith (and his successors) and not the Mail/Socialist Worker to comprehend it at all - is predicated on the problem of weaving an unsteady way through that impossible contradiction.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,234

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.

    b. Racism is popular.
    I think those are both very weak answers
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,234
    Sean_F said:

    kjh said:

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    I agree. I have asked the same question here several times. I don't understand it. I have read the replies to your post and none convince me so I am still stumped.

    The only rational explanation is 50% of Americans are stupid and that just can't be true.
    Many Trump supporters are stupid, but I suspect that more of them are people who see themselves as being on the slide, and who fear to slide further.

    Others are entirely cynical, like Ann Coulter. Nobody gets to edit the Michigan Law Review by being stupid.
    There are plenty of stupid people who support Harris too, of course, and also for cynical reasons.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,937

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.

    b. Racism is popular.
    I think those are both very weak answers
    They both fit the available facts and explain the results
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,234
    kjh said:

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    I agree. I have asked the same question here several times. I don't understand it. I have read the replies to your post and none convince me so I am still stumped.

    The only rational explanation is 50% of Americans are stupid and that just can't be true.
    I agree. I essentially skip over several regular posters when they opine on the subject now as they are far too personally invested in the result for their analysis to be worth reading.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,752
    Sean_F said:

    US pessimism makes little sense. There’s likely to be only one superpower in 2100, namely the USA.

    I suspect the superpowers in 2100 will either be non human or global mega corporations in AI/Biotech rather than countries.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,270
    And how exactly will Trumps policies help the alleged downtrodden of forgotten America ?

    I could understand Trumps support if he had any policies that would help the Average Joe . As it is Trump appeals to the “ its always someone else’s fault “ brigade .

    Aswell as the racists and migrant haters .

    Thankfully our politics here hasn’t descended to the level of hate and polarization seen in the USA and there are still lines that can’t be crossed if you want to get elected .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,465

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.

    b. Racism is popular.
    I think those are both very weak answers
    In the absence of others, it doesn't make them wrong.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,897
    Stereodog said:

    Fishing said:

    maxh said:

    Fishing said:

    "What almost never seems to be asked of our two residents is: What is it that makes you pledge your support to such a flawed political project as ... Trump?"

    Actually this is often asked, in fact obsessively by some. Biden's whole economic policy, in restoring "good union jobs", however, flawed, can be seen as an attempt to bribe the white working class back into the Democratic fold that they have been fleeing since the 1960s.

    It clearly hasn't worked, either because it hasn't been done sufficiently, because it is completely impratical and counter-productive, or imo because the causes of the alienation of the WWC are mostly cultural rather than economic, but to say that this question is never asked is quite wrong.

    Fair challenge from both you and Nigelb.

    I guess when I think about politicians asking that question I really mean to include the idea that the politicians then implement a solution that makes a material difference to the lives of the white working class.

    So yes, there has been some rhetoric, but it has not been implemented well enough to create enough decent jobs to blunt Trump's appeal.
    No it's simply the wrong approach.

    America has plenty of decent jobs - of course not everybody has one, but enough exist that they can't by themselves explain how 80 million people will probably vote Trump in a fortnight.

    Trump's appeal is cultural, not economic. It's partly due to the ghastly celebrity-social media-reality TV world we have moved towards in the last couple of decades, and partly because white America's way of life has been under attack in many ways since the 1960s. White, Christian male supremacy, unthinking patriotism, heteronormativity, and similar have been questioned and undermined by liberal politicians, and Trump is the inevitable backlash. In addition, many of the decisions have been taken in the courts, so they have no democratic legitimacy, unlike, say, our vote to leave the EU.

    The Democrats can't really address those concerns without fracturing their own coalition, many of whom have of course benefited hugely from those policies. And, unlike economics, where you can often fudge and bribe individual groups, it is much more difficult to compromise when people frame issues as binary moral choices.

    That's the main reason why Trump may well win in a couple of weeks. Economics may exacerbate discontent, but it is a much more marginal cause than many would like to believe.
    Allied to this, I think Trump's appeal is partly nostalgia. He's such a recognisably 80s stereotype with his big suits, Gordon Gecko esque business approach, fondness for golf and the YMCA that he appears comforting to a lot of people. Biden had a bit of this as a representative of a vanished political age. When national circumstances become challenging people like these kind of figures, it's a bit like the image Harold Macmillan tried to cultivate.
    That’s an interesting angle. If he represents the 80s, then for a lot of Americans of voting age that is not only a golden era of moral certainties and American hegemony, but also the time of their childhoods or coming of age.

    Which is perhaps where the comparison with Farage works. Whereas Labour benefited from similar nostalgia for the 90s and new Labour among gen x and older millennials.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,284

    The people lamenting the passing of hard working, low paid textile jobs in Kansas City are likely people who wouldn't have wanted one, wouldn't have lasted a week doing one and would have had a crap standard of living even if they had done so.

    Similarly you get people in this country yearning after some mythic version of 1960s textile mills and coal mines.

    The reality is that the low skilled have always had difficult lives and always will.

    The only variants being how much wealth they were born into and how willing their country has been to subsidise them through welfare and public services.

    The way to get on has always been to improve your skillset so that you can get a higher skilled job with higher pay.

    There’s plenty of evidence that people who lost such jobs wanted them back and morned them for a long, long time.

    Nearly none of the miners took the compensation and left the one-industry villages. The sad thing was that it had been government policy since the war to discourage other industry in the mining areas. The civil servants were worried they’d would lose the workforce… In the end they needn’t have worried.

    Your last paragraph is simply not true. European Social Fund money in the 2980s encouraged the building of many consumer electronics and automotive plants here in Wales. There were lots of industrial estates set up along the M4 corridor and the Head of the Valleys road. The Gwent valleys were particularly successful in attracting new investment.

    The trouble is when the funding was transferred to the accession countries in the 2000s the jobs went with them. One of my customers, a company called Ninkaplast made injection moulded cases for CRT tellies. My guy went in to service our machinery on a Friday afternoon, when he went the next week everything had been moved to East Germany over the weekend, including my machinery. But suggesting there was a distinct plan by the civil servants to manage the local workforce through blunting investment isn't true. It's corporate capitalism wot dun it!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,949
    algarkirk said:

    It's the right question, but I've a horrible feeling that it doesn't have a stable answer.

    It's the human condition to often want to contradictory things. For my job to be stable, protected and well-paid, whist the stuff I buy is cheap. Homes for me and mine, but protecting the green belt. Freedom for me to go around as I please, but control of others. To have my cake, eat it and then get my cake back (by taking theirs).

    Write it down like that, and the flaw becomes obvious. As it does when the Israeli government acts to eradicate people from land that is reasonably theirs. Which is why it rarely is written down like that.

    "What would the world be like if everyone acted that way?" strikes me as an excellent question, especially when coupled with "what makes you think you will always be on the winning side?" Populism, it seems to me, rests on ignoring that question. Perhaps it's a set of painful consequences that society has to go through every few generations. Though I'd rather not be around when it does.

    Thanks. Fascinating. On the human condition wanting contradictory things, this is not soluble in the customary rational way. We want contradictory things for a reason. And that fundamental reason is that human existence requires both competition and cooperation. This cannot be broken down into a simpler formula.

    In politics, very broadly, leftism emphasises cooperation as a fundamental concept; and rightist/populist emphasises competition as a fundamental concept. These are both nice and simple, and of course wrong, being in conflict with human nature and human needs in essential ways.

    The entire of centrist politics - and this is why it's so boring and you have to read the Economist and Adam Smith (and his successors) and not the Mail/Socialist Worker to comprehend it at all - is predicated on the problem of weaving an unsteady way through that impossible contradiction.
    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/02/04/the-state-of-process-the-process-state/

    My argument was centred on the fact that since humans and their works are non-linear systems, attempting to impose a perfect set of linear rules will always fail.

    The explosion in the size of the ruleset, in various domains, is exactly what happened in experimental contexts, when non-linearity met computer modelling in the 1950s….

    Socialism needs to catch up with the maths.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,036
    I have more sympathy for Palestinians voting for Hamas than I do for Americans voting for Trump.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,752
    A lot of the answers listed already are partially true.

    Two factors under represented on the list so far are religion and rural. The US is far more religious, and in a more evangelical way, than we comprehend or are familiar with here. And being rural here is quite different to only having a population of a couple of thousand within 50 miles of you, with that kind of lifestyle it is unsurprising urban modernity grates.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,897
    nico679 said:

    And how exactly will Trumps policies help the alleged downtrodden of forgotten America ?

    I could understand Trumps support if he had any policies that would help the Average Joe . As it is Trump appeals to the “ its always someone else’s fault “ brigade .

    Aswell as the racists and migrant haters .

    Thankfully our politics here hasn’t descended to the level of hate and polarization seen in the USA and there are still lines that can’t be crossed if you want to get elected .

    They won’t help. But my gut tells me the momentum is now with him and he’s going to win this one. We should be buckling up for an interesting 4 years.

    European currencies the day of his victory will be interesting as they’ll tell us how seriously or otherwise the markets take his tariff threats. If he goes ahead with what he’s promised we’re talking global trade depression, given China’s economy is simultaneously buckling under.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,949
    Scott_xP said:

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.

    b. Racism is popular.
    I think those are both very weak answers
    They both fit the available facts and explain the results
    And yet fails to answer why Trump is picking up chunks of the non-white vote. Against a black candidate.

    Their reasons are available in various articles published in mainstream, non Trumpist media.
  • I would say Trump or Republican candidates for the presidency receive up to half their votes from religious Christians in the rust belt, deep south and other places. I am happy to be corrected if I am wrong.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,894

    Scott_xP said:

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.

    b. Racism is popular.
    I think those are both very weak answers
    They both fit the available facts and explain the results
    And yet fails to answer why Trump is picking up chunks of the non-white vote. Against a black candidate.

    Their reasons are available in various articles published in mainstream, non Trumpist media.
    Trump is picking up some of the non-white, but not much of it. That doesn’t contradict (a) above. It’s more challenging for (b).
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,000
    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    And how exactly will Trumps policies help the alleged downtrodden of forgotten America ?

    I could understand Trumps support if he had any policies that would help the Average Joe . As it is Trump appeals to the “ its always someone else’s fault “ brigade .

    Aswell as the racists and migrant haters .

    Thankfully our politics here hasn’t descended to the level of hate and polarization seen in the USA and there are still lines that can’t be crossed if you want to get elected .

    They won’t help. But my gut tells me the momentum is now with him and he’s going to win this one. We should be buckling up for an interesting 4 years.

    European currencies the day of his victory will be interesting as they’ll tell us how seriously or otherwise the markets take his tariff threats. If he goes ahead with what he’s promised we’re talking global trade depression, given China’s economy is simultaneously buckling under.
    I don't think there's much chance he will get his tariff or anything like it through the Senate.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,270
    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    And how exactly will Trumps policies help the alleged downtrodden of forgotten America ?

    I could understand Trumps support if he had any policies that would help the Average Joe . As it is Trump appeals to the “ its always someone else’s fault “ brigade .

    Aswell as the racists and migrant haters .

    Thankfully our politics here hasn’t descended to the level of hate and polarization seen in the USA and there are still lines that can’t be crossed if you want to get elected .

    They won’t help. But my gut tells me the momentum is now with him and he’s going to win this one. We should be buckling up for an interesting 4 years.

    European currencies the day of his victory will be interesting as they’ll tell us how seriously or otherwise the markets take his tariff threats. If he goes ahead with what he’s promised we’re talking global trade depression, given China’s economy is simultaneously buckling under.
    It’s pretty extraordinary given just some of his comments in the last few days . It seems that spewing constant hate is a vote winner .

    At the moment I’m consoling myself by the large female turnout so far and the possibility that too many new voters are being kicked out by overly strict vote screeners .

  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,897

    Scott_xP said:

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.

    b. Racism is popular.
    I think those are both very weak answers
    They both fit the available facts and explain the results
    And yet fails to answer why Trump is picking up chunks of the non-white vote. Against a black candidate.

    Their reasons are available in various articles published in mainstream, non Trumpist media.
    Relatively small chunks, mind.

    I don’t think this is a purely US phenomenon. Why did over 40% of voters here opt for Corbyn in 2017? Look at India, electing a virulent ethnic-nationalist government in similar percentages. Or the Turks, nearly 50% voting for the bigoted Erdogan who’s presiding over another bout of hyperinflation, or the Hungarians, or - and this is the one that really gets me - a significant proportion of Georgians still voting for the revolting Putinist traitors of Georgian Dream.

    In many cases people vote on personal financial priorities and Trump is promising tax cuts and unicorns.
This discussion has been closed.