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Jenrick’s price is collapsing like the England test team's batting in the 1990s
Jenrick’s price is collapsing like the England test team's batting in the 1990s
The final two are announced at 3.30pm and punters say it won’t be Jenrick.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEuzZWyEunM
Nasty gets you nowhere!
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1843714939896377856
Tim Montgomerie has also now switched from Tugendhat to Jenrick, given Badenoch was already behind Jenrick in the last round she urgently needs more Tugendhat backers, especially as Cleverly may also lend some votes to Jenrick to knock her out
https://x.com/montie/status/1843944885306732980
Though personally I think the odds probably represent what the insiders now know.
Some of us might have predicted this yesterday.
She’s going up like a Russian ammo dump.
Half of the fan base are women (52%), but men are not too far behind at 48%. The demographics reveal a uniform distribution across various age groups, with 34% of Americans aged 18-44 rating her ‘strongly positive’.
And https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisadellatto/2023/03/14/more-than-half-of-us-adults-say-theyre-taylor-swift-fans-survey-finds/
Some 53% of U.S. adults said they were fans of Swift, and 16% identified themselves as “avid” fans of the star. [...]
Some 45% of avid fans are millennials, people between the ages of 27 and 42, while 23% are baby boomers, 21% are Gen Xers and just 11% are members of Gen Z—those 26 and under.
We are close to the 18th anniversary of Taylor Swift's first album, released when she was 16. But she's now 34 and her fans are older too. We can see Swift has grown up with her audience. For example, there is the much quoted analysis showing the increasing number of swear words in her albums over time: https://digg.com/data-viz/link/taylor-swift-swears-per-album-reddit
I would expect most Tugendhat backers to go to Cleverly but it is perfectly possible most of the remainder go to Jenrick not Badenoch
"Machine politics in the age of Starmer
The Prime Minister’s image as a pragmatist belies the ideological reality of his administration.
By John Gray"
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2024/09/machine-politics-keir-starmer-age
She won't win back voters from Farage and she risks losing 2024 Tory voters to the LDs much more than the other 2 given her higher unfavourables with them
You’re right. Geneva is surprisingly meh. The lakeside setting is pleasant but not as lovely as many other Swiss cities. The old town is Ho-hum. It’s hideously expensive and yet with a sketchy edge. It’s more menacing than Pristina!
It’s also quite boring. There really isn’t much to do
5/10
Probably Cat3 at landfall but with a Cat5 storm surge.
Prepare for Lake Tampa...
entertain you in Paquis.
A factor we overlook because it's rare, and because we are politics massive geeks and can't therefore see the wood for the trees.
Edit - In your place I'd get the train to Lyon.
But not Geneva - it’s the worst of Germany France and Switzerland itself in one go
"Do you think pineapple belongs on pizza?"
Yes: 43%
No: 37%
No Opinion: 17%
Cygnal / Oct 3, 2024 / n=1500
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1843850085677052320
You’ve got two options: one is a museums tour, the other involves getting out your personal credit card for an agreeable young lady and her friend the pharmacist.
Indeed, it doesn't look good for the Tories' opposition to SV (which they recently removed from mayoral elections) that they're close to picking a top two that excludes the candidate who got the most first preferences by far in that first round.
https://x.com/SamMarkWill/status/1843731064025690266?t=OTsL834QrL0VGjtbpKjcQw&s=19
Add to this private parking fines and TV licensing.
It’s very dodge and dangerous at night if not careful. Many friends mugged there and girl friends harassed by gangs of men.
It’s good at the height of summer as the park around the lake is constant fetes, bars, food etc.
Maybe take a trip to an area called Carouge which is a pretty district given to the king of Sicily and so has streets and squares of Italianate architecture and little bars and art galleries.
Also if you are saving money go to the student area in Planpalais rather than tourist or banker/diplomat central areas.
Otherwise the villages south of the lake leading to French border were lovely to live in.
If you had money I would say just go to Montreux up the lake.
Possibly the worst cathedral I’ve ever been in, and I’ve been to Guildford
All Badenoch wants is a war on woke and a war with the civil service which will be toxic to most younger voters
*Although Jenrick just got a pasting on LBC for TaylorSwiftgate.
Apologies I have been out geophys surveying an old manor house today so have missed the latest news. Can anyone explain why it is that Jenrick's value is collapsing? I mean, I am delighted but why has he suddenly become so unlikely to make the final two compared to Badenoch?
A a few years ago I had a ticket from St Pancras to Sheffield but due to an incident the lines were closed and there was a ticket acceptance in place.
I went from next door at King's Cross to Doncaster on LNER then Doncaster to Sheffield on a Northern service.
The conductor on the LNER service was fine, no issues.
On the Northern leg I was threatened will all sorts as I didn't have a valid ticket for Doncaster to Sheffield, conductor threatened me with all of the above and only backed down when I showed him Northern's social media account which said there was a ticket acceptance in place.
If Sunak had been elected from the off then Reform may have remained moribund.
https://x.com/noaa_hurrhunter/status/1843706785401843941
Those pilots and crew have rather large balls. God speed.
I also want this to be true, desparately - but I've also backed Jenrick at 8 and will again (up till about 3:15) at silly prices if we get there.
To Johnson’s, maybe.
Looks close to a tossup to me, but you can get on him at around 3/1 with a little patience (thinnish market on Betfair).
Nebraska Net Favorables:
Osborn: +14%
Fischer: -8%
Impact Research / Oct 3, 2024 / n=600
(Osborn Internal)
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1843780269956083976
Harris: +1%
Trump: -6%
NYT/Siena / Oct 6, 2024 / n=3385
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1843802001613979954
I’ve spent a lot of my working life going to and from Geneva. I agree with everyone, it’s meh. So are the villages along the lake on the North shore until you get to around Nyon and the views of Mont Blanc appear. My favourite region was the East near Vevey and Montreux.
In other budget travel news I am in the channel tunnel on an empty shuttle train on my way to the French house and have just had the most ridiculously quick check in and departure experience ever.
I’m so used to sitting in a series of queues at the Chunnel as we travel in school holidays. Not today. Came off the motorway 2.26. Through check in, both lots of passport control and on to the train 2.34. 8 minutes. Train started rolling 2.46. All things being equal that’s exiting the M20 to joining the autoroute des anglais in less than an hour.
My French border guard was particularly impressive as she found what is now a very scarce empty page in my old burgundy passport to stamp within about 5 seconds. I’m getting close to having to order a new one unless they stop stamping soon.
This then results in these absurd prosecutions, which are themselves highly vulnerable to post office / Grenfell style uproar.
It would save a lot of money and grief for politicians to just disrupt the circuit now and impose a different model / way of doing things on the rail industry.
Plus it’s great for batsmen’s test averages. A nice occasional top up opportunity.
Plus it’s great for batsmen’s test averages. A nice occasional top up opportunity.
Is this more or less world-shattering than Swiftgate and Currygate?
I believe one of the current Tory candidates failed to acknowledge his wife's free tickets to the Women's World Cup in Sydney. I don't care about that. I don't care about Mrs Bamford paying for Johnson's home delivered dinner or wallpaper paid for by Lord Brownlow. Johnson by the way complained of Starmer's greedy freebies just yesterday. What I do care about is PPE contract fast lanes and Foreign Secretaries attending Bunga Bunga Parties with KGB officers and over ruling planning in favour of Richard Desmond. One is froth, one is corruption.
When I defend non-Conservative corruption you will have a point.
Surprising that no boys or girls are fans though
But yes, the guys (and gals?) in those planes are braver than I am. It's also interesting that it's a prop-driven airplane rather than a jet. expense, or are prop-driven planes less susceptible to such violent weather effects (flameouts?)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6331qRVJiwo
TRiE seems to have scooped The Rest is Politics and The Rest is Football.
There is an issue when the trains are late and you have a ticket for an off peak ticket and your delayed/cancelled train arrives in peak time.