It seems to me all the remaining Conservative MPs are willing to attack a leader who departs from their own agenda. So any new leader has the same risk.
The dark heart of Scottish nationalism rears its head again.
The activist who triggered the fraud investigation into SNP finances claims that he has been “persecuted” by fellow nationalists and received death threats.
Independence campaigner Sean Clerkin reported concerns to police about the whereabouts of more than £600,000 of funding that had been raised for a second referendum three years ago....
...In the interview, Clerkin said he had been ostracised by some nationalists and had faced intimidation.
“All these years down the line I have been persecuted by nationalists who have persecuted me on social media and at rallies,” he said. “Threatening to do me in, threatened to take me out and I have had death threats.”
Little Englanders believe and regurgitate any old shit printed by London propaganda units.
I had reason to come across a semi-official online communication from Clerkin last year. Let's just say somewhere between deranged and barely literate. Or dEranJeD & BArLeyLiTrATe!!!?!
If the Tories don’t shape up and shift right, Reform will destroy them. See the latest Welsh VI poll. Labour have plunged EIGHT points and Reform are now 2nd
If the Tories don’t shape up and shift right, Reform will destroy them. See the latest Welsh VI poll. Labour have plunged EIGHT points and Reform are now 2nd
Despite the increasingly desperate subsampling and frothing, Labour have a notable lead with all pollsters, a parliamentary majority of 172, and five years to a general election. All this after a bunch of over-excitable hypocrites have been chasing Lady Vic around Selfridges for weeks on end and whining about the removal of iniquitous freebies.
Sir Keir will be pretty happy. The PB Tories might be spitting, but who really cares?
People care for honesty, integrity, and end to sleaze and cronyism all of which were promised by Starmer and after just a few weeks he has proven the same as the rest and just a hypocrite
It is not this meme you use of PB Tories, but ordinary people across this land who are dismayed as Starmer's approval ratings disappears below Sunak
Sir Keir will simply have to console himself with the above psephological, mathematical and temporal advantages. But you crack on with your performative pearl-clutching.
The problem for the Cons is that the main factions are the mad Reformites, the Cons right or wrong lack of thinkers, and the sensible, intelligent, dashing Cameroon remain types.
The first group are with Reform, the second with the Cons, and the third split between the Cons, homeless, and perhaps the LDs.
There is no way that these groups can coexist so the Cons are fucked.
Underpinning the Conservative century was that they were broadly united and their opponents were divided, usually very inefficiently. That's no longer true, and I don't see an easy way to put Humpty Dumpty together again.
It depends on how many and for how long those on the right wish to protest rather than govern.
This is the fallacy of Leon's 'I want Reform to replace the Conservatives'.
Reform are not interested in being in government.
That was true but I don’t think it is true any more
Farage senses a real opportunity - that is clear. He is now in his 60s. This is his last big gig, and he’s going to give it his all - is my sense
Yes yes he doesn’t go to Clacton. That is irrelevant. He’s a major party leader and one of the biggest figures in British politics
It is relevant.
Farage cannot be bothered to do the basic activities of being an MP.
How could he operate in government ?
Farage does things he enjoys being in government is hard work and responsibility.
If the Tories don’t shape up and shift right, Reform will destroy them. See the latest Welsh VI poll. Labour have plunged EIGHT points and Reform are now 2nd
It's a subsample of 69 unweighted people in Wales.
Why do low IQ posters fall for such obvious bollocks?
Because he wants it to be true?
I reckon it's the leather and the truncheons.
And yet it does reflect reality - even as a subsample. Reform are rising in the Celtic fringe. Scotland too
Doubling down on your subsampling. You are playing with fire my friend.
Mention of playing with fire reminds me of a Labour friend who, when discussing politics with older Tories (he's no spring chicken, either) suggests that they look at Reform. His reasoning that the higher the Reform vote the more likely the Tories will lose seats and Labour gain them, consequent on a split right-wing vote. I remind him of what happened in the South of our county, in Basildon South, but he persists.
And Good Morning to everyone. Pleasant autumnal sunshine ATM.
The problem for the Cons is that the main factions are the mad Reformites, the Cons right or wrong lack of thinkers, and the sensible, intelligent, dashing Cameroon remain types.
The first group are with Reform, the second with the Cons, and the third split between the Cons, homeless, and perhaps the LDs.
There is no way that these groups can coexist so the Cons are fucked.
Underpinning the Conservative century was that they were broadly united and their opponents were divided, usually very inefficiently. That's no longer true, and I don't see an easy way to put Humpty Dumpty together again.
It depends on how many and for how long those on the right wish to protest rather than govern.
This is the fallacy of Leon's 'I want Reform to replace the Conservatives'.
Reform are not interested in being in government.
That was true but I don’t think it is true any more
Farage senses a real opportunity - that is clear. He is now in his 60s. This is his last big gig, and he’s going to give it his all - is my sense
Yes yes he doesn’t go to Clacton. That is irrelevant. He’s a major party leader and one of the biggest figures in British politics
It is relevant.
Farage cannot be bothered to do the basic activities of being an MP.
How could he operate in government ?
Farage does things he enjoys being in government is hard work and responsibility.
It is completely irrelevant
And Reform have a real chance of overtaking the Tories. Its not probable but it is possible
I suspect you don’t like this idea which is why you reject it outright
Despite the increasingly desperate subsampling and frothing, Labour have a notable lead with all pollsters, a parliamentary majority of 172, and five years to a general election. All this after a bunch of over-excitable hypocrites have been chasing Lady Vic around Selfridges for weeks on end and whining about the removal of iniquitous freebies.
Sir Keir will be pretty happy. The PB Tories might be spitting, but who really cares?
People care for honesty, integrity, and end to sleaze and cronyism all of which were promised by Starmer and after just a few weeks he has proven the same as the rest and just a hypocrite
It is not this meme you use of PB Tories, but ordinary people across this land who are dismayed as Starmer's approval ratings disappears below Sunak
Sir Keir will simply have to console himself with the above psephological, mathematical and temporal advantages. But you crack on with your performative pearl-clutching.
I still think far too much is being made of the Tories making an error by shifting to the right. It comes up all the time on here.
The Tories are in a tactical quandary and face being outflanked on their right. It makes complete sense to me, tactically, to try and deal with that.
We also don’t quite know where the centre ground is going to be in 5 years time.
I get that a lot of people on here yearn for a sensible, early-Cameroon managerial competent centrist Tory Party. That kind of party most closely matches my views too. But the political landscape has changed dramatically since the late 00s, and it’s not a given that that brand of conservatism is the way to win anymore.
Thoughtful post - I've never considered Reform a "right" or "left" wing party - the terms are meaningless these days. Reform is perhaps the biggest legacy of Boris Johnson though he never struck me as culturally conservative.
You could argue Reform represents the perceived or actual failure of the managerialist policies of both the Blair and Cameron periods which were truncated by the events of 2008 but which were largely predicated on economic growth being driven by cheap fuel, cheap food, cheap labour and cheap money.
The long period of historically low inflation and interest rates masked growing structural economic and social problems such as our reliance on cheap imported labour to fuel economic growth especially in construction and also to support large areas of public services including the NHS.
I'd also cheerfully concede the Conservative administration from 2019 onwards suffered from an unlikely series of external events which few could have predicted but sometimes it's not so much the hand you're dealt but how you play it which is important.
Starmer has come in with the maxim "the party's over" (which it wasn't for him and some of his colleagues of course) and to an extent he's right, there was always going to have to be a financial reckoning which frankly Sunak either misunderstood (unlikely) or was scared to confront (possible) or wished to leave as a poison chalice for his successor (not inconceivable).
Unfortunately, Labour's pre-election caution has boxed them into too many corners - it's likely even if they had not ruled out rises in income tax, NI and VAT they'd have won but closing down those options to raise taxes (while perhaps eliminating or mitigating the odious "fiscal drag") leaves them with fewer and less palatable choices.
If the Tories don’t shape up and shift right, Reform will destroy them. See the latest Welsh VI poll. Labour have plunged EIGHT points and Reform are now 2nd
That was from yesterday, the downed aircraft was an S-70 experimental “stealth drone”, which presumably malfunctioned and was shot down at close range. It landed in Ukranian territory, and likely contains a lot of technology which they might find useful.
Oh, and the pictures of the wreckage show it to be anything but stealthy, unless riveted sheet metal now meets that description!
Its the best they can do, which is a mercy at the moment.
You should see the Blu-tack holding their nukes together.
Sanction that and we can cross any red line we choose.
The Russian ICBM test from the other week was quite spectacular in its failure.
Not only did it completely destroy the silo from which it was supposed to be launched, it also took out pretty much every structure in the entire facility.
I know it’s not a risk worth taking, but there’s a pretty good chance that any Russian attempt to launch a big bucket of sunshine doesn’t quite go according to plan. Most of the equipment is very old.
It was such a wipeout, you wonder how many of the team making the thing were actually a safe distance away.
Still, saves Putin the effort of shoving them out a window for their failure.
If the Tories don’t shape up and shift right, Reform will destroy them. See the latest Welsh VI poll. Labour have plunged EIGHT points and Reform are now 2nd
That was from yesterday, the downed aircraft was an S-70 experimental “stealth drone”, which presumably malfunctioned and was shot down at close range. It landed in Ukranian territory, and likely contains a lot of technology which they might find useful.
Oh, and the pictures of the wreckage show it to be anything but stealthy, unless riveted sheet metal now meets that description!
Its the best they can do, which is a mercy at the moment.
You should see the Blu-tack holding their nukes together.
Sanction that and we can cross any red line we choose.
The Russian ICBM test from the other week was quite spectacular in its failure.
Not only did it completely destroy the silo from which it was supposed to be launched, it also took out pretty much every structure in the entire facility.
I know it’s not a risk worth taking, but there’s a pretty good chance that any Russian attempt to launch a big bucket of sunshine doesn’t quite go according to plan. Most of the equipment is very old.
It was such a wipeout, you wonder how many of the team making the thing were actually a safe distance away.
Still, saves Putin the effort of shoving them out a window for their failure.
Given that the film of the Nedelin disaster shows people being burnt alive as they ran, I’d say the probability that anyone sane was within a mile or two of the rocket was low.
The problem for the Cons is that the main factions are the mad Reformites, the Cons right or wrong lack of thinkers, and the sensible, intelligent, dashing Cameroon remain types.
The first group are with Reform, the second with the Cons, and the third split between the Cons, homeless, and perhaps the LDs.
There is no way that these groups can coexist so the Cons are fucked.
Underpinning the Conservative century was that they were broadly united and their opponents were divided, usually very inefficiently. That's no longer true, and I don't see an easy way to put Humpty Dumpty together again.
It depends on how many and for how long those on the right wish to protest rather than govern.
This is the fallacy of Leon's 'I want Reform to replace the Conservatives'.
Reform are not interested in being in government.
That was true but I don’t think it is true any more
Farage senses a real opportunity - that is clear. He is now in his 60s. This is his last big gig, and he’s going to give it his all - is my sense
Yes yes he doesn’t go to Clacton. That is irrelevant. He’s a major party leader and one of the biggest figures in British politics
It is relevant.
Farage cannot be bothered to do the basic activities of being an MP.
How could he operate in government ?
Farage does things he enjoys being in government is hard work and responsibility.
It is completely irrelevant
And Reform have a real chance of overtaking the Tories. Its not probable but it is possible
I suspect you don’t like this idea which is why you reject it outright
If you spend a few more minutes subsampling, you will probably be able to concoct a survey that shows Farage ahead now!
If the Tories don’t shape up and shift right, Reform will destroy them. See the latest Welsh VI poll. Labour have plunged EIGHT points and Reform are now 2nd
Was simultaneously redditing, hiring a car in Kosovo, reading a fascinating spectator piece about podcasts, and posting on here. As explained
Too bad. The seventh circle of Hell is reserved for the poll rampers and the subsamplers. Your excuses won’t cut it with the Dark Lord.
Rubbish
Poll Rampers and people who use raw poll data to invent their own results go to the 8th circle of Hell.
The subsample fans go to the *9th circle*. To spend the rest of eternity with Piers Morgan and Piers Corbyn, while reading the comments on Con Home.
I want a word with whoever conducted that mega-poll of 70m people on 4 July this year. Based on the comments in the press, it can’t have been representative.
If the Tories don’t shape up and shift right, Reform will destroy them. See the latest Welsh VI poll. Labour have plunged EIGHT points and Reform are now 2nd
Was simultaneously redditing, hiring a car in Kosovo, reading a fascinating spectator piece about podcasts, and posting on here. As explained
Too bad. The seventh circle of Hell is reserved for the poll rampers and the subsamplers. Your excuses won’t cut it with the Dark Lord.
Rubbish
Poll Rampers and people who use raw poll data to invent their own results go to the 8th circle of Hell.
The subsample fans go to the *9th circle*. To spend the rest of eternity with Piers Morgan and Piers Corbyn, while reading the comments on Con Home.
I want a word with whoever conducted that mega-poll of 70m people on 4 July this year. Based on the comments in the press, it can’t have been representative.
Also, there's something cultural about the Conservative Party, institutionally, where they are secretly embarrassed to be Conservatives and feel the need to constantly show they're ok and totally middle of the road. For example, their willingness to 'accept' whatever progressivism a Labour/LD government puts in place without reversing it, despite opposing it whilst it was being proposed. For example, if they did win the next election I don't think they'd reverse VAT on private schools, or take a difference stance on the Chagos Islands, or reform any changes to the Equality Act. Nor would they reverse the WFA cut, despite opposing it vociferously now.
This is very different to the US Republicans, who never give up; the British Conservatives verbally oppose, then shrug and accept it when it happens, and say 'what can you do'. This really annoys their voters.
It's worse amongst the public school contingent. And it goes all the way back from Cameron to Heath to Macmillan to Halifax and before. What they really want is to be in public office with their brethren.
Only Thatcher and Churchill really broke the mould, and they had a lot of internal party management challenges as a result.
While it is encouraging that Conservatives are embarrassed, the reversals that you crave are hardly core Conservative ideology: removing VAT from school fees and restoring the WFA. It's hard also to see how the Chagos deal is reversed, short of a war and naval task force sent to the Indian Ocean, to secure an Anglo-American base that is protected by the transfer.
Time moves on and all governments start with what they inherit, good or bad, simply reversing the policies of the last government isn't sufficient reason to govern, hence Labour not reversing the 2 child benefit limit, despite falling fertility rates.
I would forgive Keir Starmer any number of costly spectacles if he removed the 2 child benefit limit. I suspect he may do so eventually. Sometimes the right thing and the politically advantageous thing does happen.
The advantage of the 2 child benefit limit is that it's discouraging the welfare claimants who used children as their source of money from having more children.
And believe me I can point to a lot of families around here who previously had children to avoid working...
So you're saying all actual children in poverty should suffer just to discourage a number of feckless parents?
The extra £290 UC per month for an additional child is not a massive amount of money, particular when compared with a benefit like the State Pension which is £960 per month and, unlike UC, has no means testing, earnings taper, savings conditions or the possibility of sanctions.
Removing the limit significantly benefits younger, single parents who tend to be those with kids who have the most difficulties with education, crime etc etc.
I understand why people argue against it on a fairness principle (and I don't disagree), but I think the pros massively outweigh the cons, particularly in the long term. I don't think it would materially affect fertility rates; if you're in this kind of poverty, having another child is never going to be rational. But people do.
Having a third child is entirely rational. That's the child that gets you a chance of a house with garden rather than a flat in a block, in the social housing stakes. Unless the rules have changed in the past few years.
Despite the increasingly desperate subsampling and frothing, Labour have a notable lead with all pollsters, a parliamentary majority of 172, and five years to a general election. All this after a bunch of over-excitable hypocrites from the media have been chasing Lady Vic around Selfridges for weeks on end and whining about the removal of iniquitous freebies.
Sir Keir will be pretty happy. The PB Tories might be spitting, but who really cares about those hilarious losers?
Despite the increasingly desperate subsampling and frothing, Labour have a notable lead with all pollsters, a parliamentary majority of 172, and five years to a general election. All this after a bunch of over-excitable hypocrites from the media have been chasing Lady Vic around Selfridges for weeks on end and whining about the removal of iniquitous freebies.
Sir Keir will be pretty happy. The PB Tories might be spitting, but who really cares about those hilarious losers?
The majority is 165, NOT 172!
The Labour Party has won a landslide victory in the 2024 general election.
The party has taken 412 seats giving it a majority of 174.
It was 174 but Rosie’s defection makes it 172.
You forgot the MPs who lost the Labour whip, dickhead!
The problem for the Cons is that the main factions are the mad Reformites, the Cons right or wrong lack of thinkers, and the sensible, intelligent, dashing Cameroon remain types.
The first group are with Reform, the second with the Cons, and the third split between the Cons, homeless, and perhaps the LDs.
There is no way that these groups can coexist so the Cons are fucked.
Underpinning the Conservative century was that they were broadly united and their opponents were divided, usually very inefficiently. That's no longer true, and I don't see an easy way to put Humpty Dumpty together again.
It depends on how many and for how long those on the right wish to protest rather than govern.
This is the fallacy of Leon's 'I want Reform to replace the Conservatives'.
Reform are not interested in being in government.
That was true but I don’t think it is true any more
Farage senses a real opportunity - that is clear. He is now in his 60s. This is his last big gig, and he’s going to give it his all - is my sense
Yes yes he doesn’t go to Clacton. That is irrelevant. He’s a major party leader and one of the biggest figures in British politics
It is relevant.
Farage cannot be bothered to do the basic activities of being an MP.
How could he operate in government ?
Farage does things he enjoys being in government is hard work and responsibility.
It is completely irrelevant
And Reform have a real chance of overtaking the Tories. Its not probable but it is possible
I suspect you don’t like this idea which is why you reject it outright
I want to see a competent centre-right government.
So that rules out Farage, his laziness, his ego and his rabble of malcontents.
You keep fantasising about a Reform government.
Well lets assume in 2029 that we have 330+ Reform MPs and PM Farage.
What happens then ?
Do you think they could in any way run a competent government ?
How long before the tantrums and splits and scandals overwhelmed them as they discovered the restrictions and requirements of being in government ?
And yes, Farage's refusal to do the basic activities of an MP is relevant.
Because its exposes his lack of interest in the job, his lack of interest in ordinary people and his laziness.
Farage in government would combine the worst parts of Boris and the worst parts of Truss.
The problem for the Cons is that the main factions are the mad Reformites, the Cons right or wrong lack of thinkers, and the sensible, intelligent, dashing Cameroon remain types.
The first group are with Reform, the second with the Cons, and the third split between the Cons, homeless, and perhaps the LDs.
There is no way that these groups can coexist so the Cons are fucked.
Underpinning the Conservative century was that they were broadly united and their opponents were divided, usually very inefficiently. That's no longer true, and I don't see an easy way to put Humpty Dumpty together again.
It depends on how many and for how long those on the right wish to protest rather than govern.
This is the fallacy of Leon's 'I want Reform to replace the Conservatives'.
Reform are not interested in being in government.
That was true but I don’t think it is true any more
Farage senses a real opportunity - that is clear. He is now in his 60s. This is his last big gig, and he’s going to give it his all - is my sense
Yes yes he doesn’t go to Clacton. That is irrelevant. He’s a major party leader and one of the biggest figures in British politics
It is relevant.
Farage cannot be bothered to do the basic activities of being an MP.
How could he operate in government ?
Farage does things he enjoys being in government is hard work and responsibility.
It is completely irrelevant
And Reform have a real chance of overtaking the Tories. Its not probable but it is possible
I suspect you don’t like this idea which is why you reject it outright
If you spend a few more minutes subsampling, you will probably be able to concoct a survey that shows Farage ahead.
You are the Last Man Jack batting away Leon's relentless unhinged deliveries whilst the rest of us have retired hurt to the pavillion. Although, strangely enough, there are still plenty of adoring fans cheering him on from the cheap seats.
That was from yesterday, the downed aircraft was an S-70 experimental “stealth drone”, which presumably malfunctioned and was shot down at close range. It landed in Ukranian territory, and likely contains a lot of technology which they might find useful.
Oh, and the pictures of the wreckage show it to be anything but stealthy, unless riveted sheet metal now meets that description!
Its the best they can do, which is a mercy at the moment.
You should see the Blu-tack holding their nukes together.
Sanction that and we can cross any red line we choose.
The Russian ICBM test from the other week was quite spectacular in its failure.
Not only did it completely destroy the silo from which it was supposed to be launched, it also took out pretty much every structure in the entire facility.
I know it’s not a risk worth taking, but there’s a pretty good chance that any Russian attempt to launch a big bucket of sunshine doesn’t quite go according to plan. Most of the equipment is very old.
It was such a wipeout, you wonder how many of the team making the thing were actually a safe distance away.
Still, saves Putin the effort of shoving them out a window for their failure.
They’ve now managed to launch one and blow up four of these rockets, so an 80% failure rate.
The rumour is that this latest one was being fuelled rather than launched, so could well have been people close to it. Not that we’ll ever get the full story of course. These accidents that take out whole facilities can set projects back years in terms of lost equipment and personnel.
If the Tories don’t shape up and shift right, Reform will destroy them. See the latest Welsh VI poll. Labour have plunged EIGHT points and Reform are now 2nd
Was simultaneously redditing, hiring a car in Kosovo, reading a fascinating spectator piece about podcasts, and posting on here. As explained
"Fascinating" and "Spectator" all in the same sentence? Some mistake surely.
He was just scrabbling around frantically for excuses for his Welsh subsampling crimes. Desperate times called for desperate measures.
I’m about to drive (in my upgraded Dacia SUV!) to the Tomb of the Internal Organs of Sultan Murad Hüdavendigâr, the only Ottoman Sultan to die in battle: on the Field of the Blackbirds, Kosovo, June 28, 1389
Despite the increasingly desperate subsampling and frothing, Labour have a notable lead with all pollsters, a parliamentary majority of 172, and five years to a general election. All this after a bunch of over-excitable hypocrites have been chasing Lady Vic around Selfridges for weeks on end and whining about the removal of iniquitous freebies.
Sir Keir will be pretty happy. The PB Tories might be spitting, but who really cares?
People care for honesty, integrity, and end to sleaze and cronyism all of which were promised by Starmer and after just a few weeks he has proven the same as the rest and just a hypocrite
It is not this meme you use of PB Tories, but ordinary people across this land who are dismayed as Starmer's approval ratings disappears below Sunak
The question is whether this is short term froth which will be forgotten in 12 months or whether it will be longer lasting. The Ecclestone imbroglio took the shine off the honeymoon but it didn't stop Blair winning two further elections with clear majorities. We also had the fuel crisis in 2000 which at one point even saw the Conservatives lead a poll but in 2001 you know and I know what happened.
It's been very difficult to be a Conservative in the last 2-3 years and obviously it's nice for the shoe (or boot) to be on the other foot and as I've said before, Starmer badly misread the public mood (as Truss did oddly enough). There is an almost puritanical desire for "fairness" among elements of the public and while we know gifts and "freebies" have been a part of politics since the year dot, there is much less public acceptance of that.
If greater probity and increased scrutiny leads to better governance, I'm all for it but I won't be holding my breath. The public standard of how they want their leaders (not just politicians I'd argue) to comport themselves has risen sharply.
The one thing Starmer has in his favour is the ongoing fragmentation of political opinion - the two party system isn't dead yet (Labour and the Conservatives still won 523 of the 633 English, Scottish and Welsh seats) but the growth of Reform, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats and the regional and socio-economic concentration of those votes so they are less in mutual competition means the 2029 election "could" be, as has happened in other countries, the point where the long-held concensus finally breaks down (unlikely but not inconceivable).
The problem for the Cons is that the main factions are the mad Reformites, the Cons right or wrong lack of thinkers, and the sensible, intelligent, dashing Cameroon remain types.
The first group are with Reform, the second with the Cons, and the third split between the Cons, homeless, and perhaps the LDs.
There is no way that these groups can coexist so the Cons are fucked.
Underpinning the Conservative century was that they were broadly united and their opponents were divided, usually very inefficiently. That's no longer true, and I don't see an easy way to put Humpty Dumpty together again.
It depends on how many and for how long those on the right wish to protest rather than govern.
This is the fallacy of Leon's 'I want Reform to replace the Conservatives'.
Reform are not interested in being in government.
That was true but I don’t think it is true any more
Farage senses a real opportunity - that is clear. He is now in his 60s. This is his last big gig, and he’s going to give it his all - is my sense
Yes yes he doesn’t go to Clacton. That is irrelevant. He’s a major party leader and one of the biggest figures in British politics
It is relevant.
Farage cannot be bothered to do the basic activities of being an MP.
How could he operate in government ?
Farage does things he enjoys being in government is hard work and responsibility.
It is completely irrelevant
And Reform have a real chance of overtaking the Tories. Its not probable but it is possible
I suspect you don’t like this idea which is why you reject it outright
I want to see a competent centre-right government.
So that rules out Farage, his laziness, his ego and his rabble of malcontents.
You keep fantasising about a Reform government.
Well lets assume in 2029 that we have 330+ Reform MPs and PM Farage.
What happens then ?
Do you think they could in any way run a competent government ?
How long before the tantrums and splits and scandals overwhelmed them as they discovered the restrictions and requirements of being in government ?
And yes, Farage's refusal to do the basic activities of an MP is relevant.
Because its exposes his lack of interest in the job, his lack of interest in ordinary people and his laziness.
Farage in government would combine the worst parts of Boris and the worst parts of Truss.
The problem for the Cons is that the main factions are the mad Reformites, the Cons right or wrong lack of thinkers, and the sensible, intelligent, dashing Cameroon remain types.
The first group are with Reform, the second with the Cons, and the third split between the Cons, homeless, and perhaps the LDs.
There is no way that these groups can coexist so the Cons are fucked.
Underpinning the Conservative century was that they were broadly united and their opponents were divided, usually very inefficiently. That's no longer true, and I don't see an easy way to put Humpty Dumpty together again.
It depends on how many and for how long those on the right wish to protest rather than govern.
This is the fallacy of Leon's 'I want Reform to replace the Conservatives'.
Reform are not interested in being in government.
That was true but I don’t think it is true any more
Farage senses a real opportunity - that is clear. He is now in his 60s. This is his last big gig, and he’s going to give it his all - is my sense
Yes yes he doesn’t go to Clacton. That is irrelevant. He’s a major party leader and one of the biggest figures in British politics
It is relevant.
Farage cannot be bothered to do the basic activities of being an MP.
How could he operate in government ?
Farage does things he enjoys being in government is hard work and responsibility.
It is completely irrelevant
And Reform have a real chance of overtaking the Tories. Its not probable but it is possible
I suspect you don’t like this idea which is why you reject it outright
I want to see a competent centre-right government.
So that rules out Farage, his laziness, his ego and his rabble of malcontents.
You keep fantasising about a Reform government.
Well lets assume in 2029 that we have 330+ Reform MPs and PM Farage.
What happens then ?
Do you think they could in any way run a competent government ?
How long before the tantrums and splits and scandals overwhelmed them as they discovered the restrictions and requirements of being in government ?
And yes, Farage's refusal to do the basic activities of an MP is relevant.
Because its exposes his lack of interest in the job, his lack of interest in ordinary people and his laziness.
Farage in government would combine the worst parts of Boris and the worst parts of Truss.
It wouldn't last long.
I’m not responsible for your tedious, midwitted lack of imagination
Farage is building a serious political force, so he doesn’t want to be talking about dog poo in Essex. Anyone that underestimates him is a fool (like you). He changed history by building a political party, before - with UKIP. Without Farage and UKIP we wouldn’t have Brexited
Despite the increasingly desperate subsampling and frothing, Labour have a notable lead with all pollsters, a parliamentary majority of 172, and five years to a general election. All this after a bunch of over-excitable hypocrites from the media have been chasing Lady Vic around Selfridges for weeks on end and whining about the removal of iniquitous freebies.
Sir Keir will be pretty happy. The PB Tories might be spitting, but who really cares about those hilarious losers?
Despite the increasingly desperate subsampling and frothing, Labour have a notable lead with all pollsters, a parliamentary majority of 172, and five years to a general election. All this after a bunch of over-excitable hypocrites from the media have been chasing Lady Vic around Selfridges for weeks on end and whining about the removal of iniquitous freebies.
Sir Keir will be pretty happy. The PB Tories might be spitting, but who really cares about those hilarious losers?
The majority is 165, NOT 172!
The Labour Party has won a landslide victory in the 2024 general election.
The party has taken 412 seats giving it a majority of 174.
It was 174 but Rosie’s defection makes it 172.
You forgot the MPs who lost the Labour whip, dickhead!
If the Tories don’t shape up and shift right, Reform will destroy them. See the latest Welsh VI poll. Labour have plunged EIGHT points and Reform are now 2nd
It's a subsample of 69 unweighted people in Wales.
Why do low IQ posters fall for such obvious bollocks?
Because he wants it to be true?
I reckon it's the leather and the truncheons.
And yet it does reflect reality - even as a subsample. Reform are rising in the Celtic fringe. Scotland too
Doubling down on your subsampling. You are playing with fire my friend.
Mention of playing with fire reminds me of a Labour friend who, when discussing politics with older Tories (he's no spring chicken, either) suggests that they look at Reform. His reasoning that the higher the Reform vote the more likely the Tories will lose seats and Labour gain them, consequent on a split right-wing vote. I remind him of what happened in the South of our county, in Basildon South, but he persists.
And Good Morning to everyone. Pleasant autumnal sunshine ATM.
Labour 2013: "Let's encourage UKIP! It'll take votes off the Tories! What could go wrong?" Labour 2024: "Let's encourage Reform! It'll take votes off the Tories! What could go wrong?"
That was from yesterday, the downed aircraft was an S-70 experimental “stealth drone”, which presumably malfunctioned and was shot down at close range. It landed in Ukranian territory, and likely contains a lot of technology which they might find useful.
Oh, and the pictures of the wreckage show it to be anything but stealthy, unless riveted sheet metal now meets that description!
Its the best they can do, which is a mercy at the moment.
You should see the Blu-tack holding their nukes together.
Sanction that and we can cross any red line we choose.
The Russian ICBM test from the other week was quite spectacular in its failure.
Not only did it completely destroy the silo from which it was supposed to be launched, it also took out pretty much every structure in the entire facility.
I know it’s not a risk worth taking, but there’s a pretty good chance that any Russian attempt to launch a big bucket of sunshine doesn’t quite go according to plan. Most of the equipment is very old.
It was such a wipeout, you wonder how many of the team making the thing were actually a safe distance away.
Still, saves Putin the effort of shoving them out a window for their failure.
Given that the film of the Nedelin disaster shows people being burnt alive as they ran, I’d say the probability that anyone sane was within a mile or two of the rocket was low.
Then again, this is Putin’s Russian.
Everyone sensible will be stationed a couple of miles back, then a general or a poitician turns up with his entourage and wants to take a closer look at what’s happening…
If the Tories don’t shape up and shift right, Reform will destroy them. See the latest Welsh VI poll. Labour have plunged EIGHT points and Reform are now 2nd
Was simultaneously redditing, hiring a car in Kosovo, reading a fascinating spectator piece about podcasts, and posting on here. As explained
"Fascinating" and "Spectator" all in the same sentence? Some mistake surely.
He was just scrabbling around frantically for excuses for his Welsh subsampling crimes. Desperate times called for desperate measures.
I’m about to drive (in my upgraded Dacia SUV!) to the Tomb of the Internal Organs of Sultan Murad Hüdavendigâr, the only Ottoman Sultan to die in battle: on the Field of the Blackbirds, Kosovo, June 28, 1389
If the Tories don’t shape up and shift right, Reform will destroy them. See the latest Welsh VI poll. Labour have plunged EIGHT points and Reform are now 2nd
Was simultaneously redditing, hiring a car in Kosovo, reading a fascinating spectator piece about podcasts, and posting on here. As explained
"Fascinating" and "Spectator" all in the same sentence? Some mistake surely.
He was just scrabbling around frantically for excuses for his Welsh subsampling crimes. Desperate times called for desperate measures.
I’m about to drive (in my upgraded Dacia SUV!) to the Tomb of the Internal Organs of Sultan Murad Hüdavendigâr, the only Ottoman Sultan to die in battle: on the Field of the Blackbirds, Kosovo, June 28, 1389
Enjoy! Sounds like a fabulous trip. The Balkans are fascinating in so many different ways.
That was from yesterday, the downed aircraft was an S-70 experimental “stealth drone”, which presumably malfunctioned and was shot down at close range. It landed in Ukranian territory, and likely contains a lot of technology which they might find useful.
Oh, and the pictures of the wreckage show it to be anything but stealthy, unless riveted sheet metal now meets that description!
Its the best they can do, which is a mercy at the moment.
You should see the Blu-tack holding their nukes together.
Sanction that and we can cross any red line we choose.
The Russian ICBM test from the other week was quite spectacular in its failure.
Not only did it completely destroy the silo from which it was supposed to be launched, it also took out pretty much every structure in the entire facility.
I know it’s not a risk worth taking, but there’s a pretty good chance that any Russian attempt to launch a big bucket of sunshine doesn’t quite go according to plan. Most of the equipment is very old.
It was such a wipeout, you wonder how many of the team making the thing were actually a safe distance away.
Still, saves Putin the effort of shoving them out a window for their failure.
They’ve now managed to launch one and blow up four of these rockets, so an 80% failure rate.
The rumour is that this latest one was being fuelled rather than launched, so could well have been people close to it. Not that we’ll ever get the full story of course. These accidents that take out whole facilities can set projects back years in terms of lost equipment and personnel.
The way the Americans used to play with the storable liquids was to hook everything up, and turn on the pumps from a distance.
Then you wait until the instruments say everything is at steady state. Then go back.
I think FPTP and a couple of quite binary elections have delayed the vote fragmentation that much of Europe has seen, but that 2024 marks that breaking down.
Having said that, if you take the 15 largest nations West of the old iron curtain (a broad but quite specific framing), UK Labour's vote share of 33.7% is the highest of any party in any of those nations.
I don't see anything innate in FPTP that means that things can't fragment further, and I sort of agree that 2029 is likely to be another fragmentary election. 2024 established a pattern of different swings in different places: Con->Labour or LD in Con held seats, SNP->Labour in Scotland, Labour -> Left/Green in strong Labour held seats.
Those new interfaces are more strongly established now, along with re-establishment of a Lab -> Reform interface and I'd expect to see multiple behaviours again at the next election. In Con held seats, there may also be some resolution to widen the Con - LD battlefield where LD and Lab split the vote this time out.
In any case the trend is likely to be that more seats are Lab or Con Vs all comers whilst fewer are Lab v Con, and that will drive the fragmentation.
If the Tories don’t shape up and shift right, Reform will destroy them. See the latest Welsh VI poll. Labour have plunged EIGHT points and Reform are now 2nd
It's a subsample of 69 unweighted people in Wales.
Why do low IQ posters fall for such obvious bollocks?
Because he wants it to be true?
I reckon it's the leather and the truncheons.
And yet it does reflect reality - even as a subsample. Reform are rising in the Celtic fringe. Scotland too
Doubling down on your subsampling. You are playing with fire my friend.
Mention of playing with fire reminds me of a Labour friend who, when discussing politics with older Tories (he's no spring chicken, either) suggests that they look at Reform. His reasoning that the higher the Reform vote the more likely the Tories will lose seats and Labour gain them, consequent on a split right-wing vote. I remind him of what happened in the South of our county, in Basildon South, but he persists.
And Good Morning to everyone. Pleasant autumnal sunshine ATM.
Labour 2013: "Let's encourage UKIP! It'll take votes off the Tories! What could go wrong?" Labour 2024: "Let's encourage Reform! It'll take votes off the Tories! What could go wrong?"
The problem for the Cons is that the main factions are the mad Reformites, the Cons right or wrong lack of thinkers, and the sensible, intelligent, dashing Cameroon remain types.
The first group are with Reform, the second with the Cons, and the third split between the Cons, homeless, and perhaps the LDs.
There is no way that these groups can coexist so the Cons are fucked.
Underpinning the Conservative century was that they were broadly united and their opponents were divided, usually very inefficiently. That's no longer true, and I don't see an easy way to put Humpty Dumpty together again.
It depends on how many and for how long those on the right wish to protest rather than govern.
This is the fallacy of Leon's 'I want Reform to replace the Conservatives'.
Reform are not interested in being in government.
That was true but I don’t think it is true any more
Farage senses a real opportunity - that is clear. He is now in his 60s. This is his last big gig, and he’s going to give it his all - is my sense
Yes yes he doesn’t go to Clacton. That is irrelevant. He’s a major party leader and one of the biggest figures in British politics
It is relevant.
Farage cannot be bothered to do the basic activities of being an MP.
How could he operate in government ?
Farage does things he enjoys being in government is hard work and responsibility.
It is completely irrelevant
And Reform have a real chance of overtaking the Tories. Its not probable but it is possible
I suspect you don’t like this idea which is why you reject it outright
I want to see a competent centre-right government.
So that rules out Farage, his laziness, his ego and his rabble of malcontents.
You keep fantasising about a Reform government.
Well lets assume in 2029 that we have 330+ Reform MPs and PM Farage.
What happens then ?
Do you think they could in any way run a competent government ?
How long before the tantrums and splits and scandals overwhelmed them as they discovered the restrictions and requirements of being in government ?
And yes, Farage's refusal to do the basic activities of an MP is relevant.
Because its exposes his lack of interest in the job, his lack of interest in ordinary people and his laziness.
Farage in government would combine the worst parts of Boris and the worst parts of Truss.
It wouldn't last long.
I recall people saying things like that about Berlusconi, though. That was a case of athlete’s foot that never really went away…
If the Tories don’t shape up and shift right, Reform will destroy them. See the latest Welsh VI poll. Labour have plunged EIGHT points and Reform are now 2nd
Was simultaneously redditing, hiring a car in Kosovo, reading a fascinating spectator piece about podcasts, and posting on here. As explained
"Fascinating" and "Spectator" all in the same sentence? Some mistake surely.
He was just scrabbling around frantically for excuses for his Welsh subsampling crimes. Desperate times called for desperate measures.
I’m about to drive (in my upgraded Dacia SUV!) to the Tomb of the Internal Organs of Sultan Murad Hüdavendigâr, the only Ottoman Sultan to die in battle: on the Field of the Blackbirds, Kosovo, June 28, 1389
Enjoy! Sounds like a fabulous trip. The Balkans are fascinating in so many different ways.
Thanks. It’s all quite bizarre. Kosovo is brilliantly weird and overlooked. Intense autumn storms are adding to the noomy atmos
If the Tories don’t shape up and shift right, Reform will destroy them. See the latest Welsh VI poll. Labour have plunged EIGHT points and Reform are now 2nd
Was simultaneously redditing, hiring a car in Kosovo, reading a fascinating spectator piece about podcasts, and posting on here. As explained
"Fascinating" and "Spectator" all in the same sentence? Some mistake surely.
He was just scrabbling around frantically for excuses for his Welsh subsampling crimes. Desperate times called for desperate measures.
I’m about to drive (in my upgraded Dacia SUV!) to the Tomb of the Internal Organs of Sultan Murad Hüdavendigâr, the only Ottoman Sultan to die in battle: on the Field of the Blackbirds, Kosovo, June 28, 1389
Enjoy! Sounds like a fabulous trip. The Balkans are fascinating in so many different ways.
...but of little relevance to a political betting blog that isn't a travelog.
That was from yesterday, the downed aircraft was an S-70 experimental “stealth drone”, which presumably malfunctioned and was shot down at close range. It landed in Ukranian territory, and likely contains a lot of technology which they might find useful.
Oh, and the pictures of the wreckage show it to be anything but stealthy, unless riveted sheet metal now meets that description!
Its the best they can do, which is a mercy at the moment.
You should see the Blu-tack holding their nukes together.
Sanction that and we can cross any red line we choose.
The Russian ICBM test from the other week was quite spectacular in its failure.
Not only did it completely destroy the silo from which it was supposed to be launched, it also took out pretty much every structure in the entire facility.
I know it’s not a risk worth taking, but there’s a pretty good chance that any Russian attempt to launch a big bucket of sunshine doesn’t quite go according to plan. Most of the equipment is very old.
It was such a wipeout, you wonder how many of the team making the thing were actually a safe distance away.
Still, saves Putin the effort of shoving them out a window for their failure.
They’ve now managed to launch one and blow up four of these rockets, so an 80% failure rate.
The rumour is that this latest one was being fuelled rather than launched, so could well have been people close to it. Not that we’ll ever get the full story of course. These accidents that take out whole facilities can set projects back years in terms of lost equipment and personnel.
There’s something quite apt about the two historical foes Russia and Britain failing their missile launches in such characteristic ways. Theirs explodes, wipes out the silos and everything within viewing distance in a dramatic crash and burn; ours plops into the ocean, with Grant Shapps watching.
I've never liked Starmer as a politician; I thought he was OK as a lawyer ..... the McLibel case ..... insofar as I ever think about lawyers (Sorry, TSE). I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
Also, there's something cultural about the Conservative Party, institutionally, where they are secretly embarrassed to be Conservatives and feel the need to constantly show they're ok and totally middle of the road. For example, their willingness to 'accept' whatever progressivism a Labour/LD government puts in place without reversing it, despite opposing it whilst it was being proposed. For example, if they did win the next election I don't think they'd reverse VAT on private schools, or take a difference stance on the Chagos Islands, or reform any changes to the Equality Act. Nor would they reverse the WFA cut, despite opposing it vociferously now.
This is very different to the US Republicans, who never give up; the British Conservatives verbally oppose, then shrug and accept it when it happens, and say 'what can you do'. This really annoys their voters.
It's worse amongst the public school contingent. And it goes all the way back from Cameron to Heath to Macmillan to Halifax and before. What they really want is to be in public office with their brethren.
Only Thatcher and Churchill really broke the mould, and they had a lot of internal party management challenges as a result.
While it is encouraging that Conservatives are embarrassed, the reversals that you crave are hardly core Conservative ideology: removing VAT from school fees and restoring the WFA. It's hard also to see how the Chagos deal is reversed, short of a war and naval task force sent to the Indian Ocean, to secure an Anglo-American base that is protected by the transfer.
Time moves on and all governments start with what they inherit, good or bad, simply reversing the policies of the last government isn't sufficient reason to govern, hence Labour not reversing the 2 child benefit limit, despite falling fertility rates.
I would forgive Keir Starmer any number of costly spectacles if he removed the 2 child benefit limit. I suspect he may do so eventually. Sometimes the right thing and the politically advantageous thing does happen.
The advantage of the 2 child benefit limit is that it's discouraging the welfare claimants who used children as their source of money from having more children.
And believe me I can point to a lot of families around here who previously had children to avoid working...
So you're saying all actual children in poverty should suffer just to discourage a number of feckless parents?
The extra £290 UC per month for an additional child is not a massive amount of money, particular when compared with a benefit like the State Pension which is £960 per month and, unlike UC, has no means testing, earnings taper, savings conditions or the possibility of sanctions.
Removing the limit significantly benefits younger, single parents who tend to be those with kids who have the most difficulties with education, crime etc etc.
I understand why people argue against it on a fairness principle (and I don't disagree), but I think the pros massively outweigh the cons, particularly in the long term. I don't think it would materially affect fertility rates; if you're in this kind of poverty, having another child is never going to be rational. But people do.
Having a third child is entirely rational. That's the child that gets you a chance of a house with garden rather than a flat in a block, in the social housing stakes. Unless the rules have changed in the past few years.
I've never liked Starmer as a politician; I thought he was OK as a lawyer ..... the McLibel case ..... insofar as I ever think about lawyers (Sorry, TSE). I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
His comms. and his political antenna are shockingly poor, in contrast to Johnson's for example.
I think FPTP and a couple of quite binary elections have delayed the vote fragmentation that much of Europe has seen, but that 2024 marks that breaking down.
Having said that, if you take the 15 largest nations West of the old iron curtain (a broad but quite specific framing), UK Labour's vote share of 33.7% is the highest of any party in any of those nations.
I don't see anything innate in FPTP that means that things can't fragment further, and I sort of agree that 2029 is likely to be another fragmentary election. 2024 established a pattern of different swings in different places: Con->Labour or LD in Con held seats, SNP->Labour in Scotland, Labour -> Left/Green in strong Labour held seats.
Those new interfaces are more strongly established now, along with re-establishment of a Lab -> Reform interface and I'd expect to see multiple behaviours again at the next election. In Con held seats, there may also be some resolution to widen the Con - LD battlefield where LD and Lab split the vote this time out.
In any case the trend is likely to be that more seats are Lab or Con Vs all comers whilst fewer are Lab v Con, and that will drive the fragmentation.
The seat projection sites get quite bizarre once you start modelling scenarios between the currently feasible 25:25:15:20:15 (Labour largest party, Labour-Lib coalition) and the not impossible 20:20:20:20:20 (Tories largest party, Reform not far off second, RefCon coalition).
In all realistic national scenarios the SNP gain several seats.
The Field of the Blackbirds was as, perhaps more, significant than Hastings in changing the government of the defeated. Hastings of course didn't substantially change the religion of the defeated country as the Field of the Blackbirds did.
I've never liked Starmer as a politician; I thought he was OK as a lawyer ..... the McLibel case ..... insofar as I ever think about lawyers (Sorry, TSE). I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
His comms. and his political antenna are shockingly poor, in contrast to Johnson's for example.
Surely Johnson political antennae are now malfunctioning and in need of serious adjustment?
I've never liked Starmer as a politician; I thought he was OK as a lawyer ..... the McLibel case ..... insofar as I ever think about lawyers (Sorry, TSE). I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
Starmer’s had a mediocre first few months but if you look at the major policy and PR missteps they’ve all come from Reeves. The freebies would be a mere bagatelle were we not all softened up already by the WFA announcement, cancelled infrastructure projects and endless speculation over tax rises in the budget.
That was from yesterday, the downed aircraft was an S-70 experimental “stealth drone”, which presumably malfunctioned and was shot down at close range. It landed in Ukranian territory, and likely contains a lot of technology which they might find useful.
Oh, and the pictures of the wreckage show it to be anything but stealthy, unless riveted sheet metal now meets that description!
Its the best they can do, which is a mercy at the moment.
You should see the Blu-tack holding their nukes together.
Sanction that and we can cross any red line we choose.
The Russian ICBM test from the other week was quite spectacular in its failure.
Not only did it completely destroy the silo from which it was supposed to be launched, it also took out pretty much every structure in the entire facility.
I know it’s not a risk worth taking, but there’s a pretty good chance that any Russian attempt to launch a big bucket of sunshine doesn’t quite go according to plan. Most of the equipment is very old.
It was such a wipeout, you wonder how many of the team making the thing were actually a safe distance away.
Still, saves Putin the effort of shoving them out a window for their failure.
They’ve now managed to launch one and blow up four of these rockets, so an 80% failure rate.
The rumour is that this latest one was being fuelled rather than launched, so could well have been people close to it. Not that we’ll ever get the full story of course. These accidents that take out whole facilities can set projects back years in terms of lost equipment and personnel.
The way the Americans used to play with the storable liquids was to hook everything up, and turn on the pumps from a distance.
Then you wait until the instruments say everything is at steady state. Then go back.
Remember not to drop any tools, though.
Yes that’s the correct way to do it, set up all the piping and connections ‘dry’, then retire to a safe distance and operate the pumps and valves remotely to fuel your launch vehicle.
Not sure how well practiced the Russians and Chinese are when it comes to this though, especially not on the military side. I can well imagine them sending in a man to investigate a stuck valve or other minor anomoly.
The problem for the Cons is that the main factions are the mad Reformites, the Cons right or wrong lack of thinkers, and the sensible, intelligent, dashing Cameroon remain types.
The first group are with Reform, the second with the Cons, and the third split between the Cons, homeless, and perhaps the LDs.
There is no way that these groups can coexist so the Cons are fucked.
Underpinning the Conservative century was that they were broadly united and their opponents were divided, usually very inefficiently. That's no longer true, and I don't see an easy way to put Humpty Dumpty together again.
It depends on how many and for how long those on the right wish to protest rather than govern.
This is the fallacy of Leon's 'I want Reform to replace the Conservatives'.
Reform are not interested in being in government.
That was true but I don’t think it is true any more
Farage senses a real opportunity - that is clear. He is now in his 60s. This is his last big gig, and he’s going to give it his all - is my sense
Yes yes he doesn’t go to Clacton. That is irrelevant. He’s a major party leader and one of the biggest figures in British politics
It is relevant.
Farage cannot be bothered to do the basic activities of being an MP.
How could he operate in government ?
Farage does things he enjoys being in government is hard work and responsibility.
It is completely irrelevant
And Reform have a real chance of overtaking the Tories. Its not probable but it is possible
I suspect you don’t like this idea which is why you reject it outright
I want to see a competent centre-right government.
So that rules out Farage, his laziness, his ego and his rabble of malcontents.
You keep fantasising about a Reform government.
Well lets assume in 2029 that we have 330+ Reform MPs and PM Farage.
What happens then ?
Do you think they could in any way run a competent government ?
How long before the tantrums and splits and scandals overwhelmed them as they discovered the restrictions and requirements of being in government ?
And yes, Farage's refusal to do the basic activities of an MP is relevant.
Because its exposes his lack of interest in the job, his lack of interest in ordinary people and his laziness.
Farage in government would combine the worst parts of Boris and the worst parts of Truss.
It wouldn't last long.
I’m not responsible for your tedious, midwitted lack of imagination
Farage is building a serious political force, so he doesn’t want to be talking about dog poo in Essex. Anyone that underestimates him is a fool (like you). He changed history by building a political party, before - with UKIP. Without Farage and UKIP we wouldn’t have Brexited
He has a shot at doing it again
So you don't have any answers.
I'll tell you what happens with a Reform government:
PM Farage gives a load of orders. People explain that they cannot be implemented. Farage has a tantrum and goes to the nearest pub. Reform MPs argue with each other Government collapses
Government involves hard work, dealing with realities, accepting the limitations of restricted resources, doing things you would rather not but have to.
The sort of thing millions of people do every day.
But not Farage.
And not you either.
Perhaps that's why you're so desperate to ignore Farage's flaws, so desperate to ignore the unfortunate realities.
I suggest you're wasting your time talking to us and meandering around eastern Europe.
If you're so confident of a Farage government why don't you join his rabble of malcontents.
A cabinet position is there for the taking if you're right.
I've never liked Starmer as a politician; I thought he was OK as a lawyer ..... the McLibel case ..... insofar as I ever think about lawyers (Sorry, TSE). I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
Starmer’s had a mediocre first few months but if you look at the major policy and PR missteps they’ve all come from Reeves. The freebies would be a mere bagatelle were we not all softened up already by the WFA announcement, cancelled infrastructure projects and endless speculation over tax rises in the budget.
Reeves of course went from industry to the Shadow Cabinet in fairly quick time.
I think FPTP and a couple of quite binary elections have delayed the vote fragmentation that much of Europe has seen, but that 2024 marks that breaking down.
Having said that, if you take the 15 largest nations West of the old iron curtain (a broad but quite specific framing), UK Labour's vote share of 33.7% is the highest of any party in any of those nations.
I don't see anything innate in FPTP that means that things can't fragment further, and I sort of agree that 2029 is likely to be another fragmentary election. 2024 established a pattern of different swings in different places: Con->Labour or LD in Con held seats, SNP->Labour in Scotland, Labour -> Left/Green in strong Labour held seats.
Those new interfaces are more strongly established now, along with re-establishment of a Lab -> Reform interface and I'd expect to see multiple behaviours again at the next election. In Con held seats, there may also be some resolution to widen the Con - LD battlefield where LD and Lab split the vote this time out.
In any case the trend is likely to be that more seats are Lab or Con Vs all comers whilst fewer are Lab v Con, and that will drive the fragmentation.
The 56-57% combined vote share for Labour and Conservatives at the general election is under discussed.
I've never liked Starmer as a politician; I thought he was OK as a lawyer ..... the McLibel case ..... insofar as I ever think about lawyers (Sorry, TSE). I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
Having someone in the team willing to say "that's a bad idea" is vital.
It might have stopped all the sleaze for one thing.
The dark heart of Scottish nationalism rears its head again.
The activist who triggered the fraud investigation into SNP finances claims that he has been “persecuted” by fellow nationalists and received death threats.
Independence campaigner Sean Clerkin reported concerns to police about the whereabouts of more than £600,000 of funding that had been raised for a second referendum three years ago....
...In the interview, Clerkin said he had been ostracised by some nationalists and had faced intimidation.
“All these years down the line I have been persecuted by nationalists who have persecuted me on social media and at rallies,” he said. “Threatening to do me in, threatened to take me out and I have had death threats.”
Little Englanders believe and regurgitate any old shit printed by London propaganda units.
I had reason to come across a semi-official online communication from Clerkin last year. Let's just say somewhere between deranged and barely literate. Or dEranJeD & BArLeyLiTrATe!!!?!
You can always tell PBScotchExperts (edit: or at least the less clued-up ones) by their confusing Clerkin and his lot with the SNP, Slab, etc. etc.
I think FPTP and a couple of quite binary elections have delayed the vote fragmentation that much of Europe has seen, but that 2024 marks that breaking down.
Having said that, if you take the 15 largest nations West of the old iron curtain (a broad but quite specific framing), UK Labour's vote share of 33.7% is the highest of any party in any of those nations.
I don't see anything innate in FPTP that means that things can't fragment further, and I sort of agree that 2029 is likely to be another fragmentary election. 2024 established a pattern of different swings in different places: Con->Labour or LD in Con held seats, SNP->Labour in Scotland, Labour -> Left/Green in strong Labour held seats.
Those new interfaces are more strongly established now, along with re-establishment of a Lab -> Reform interface and I'd expect to see multiple behaviours again at the next election. In Con held seats, there may also be some resolution to widen the Con - LD battlefield where LD and Lab split the vote this time out.
In any case the trend is likely to be that more seats are Lab or Con Vs all comers whilst fewer are Lab v Con, and that will drive the fragmentation.
The 56-57% combined vote share for Labour and Conservatives at the general election is under discussed.
I still think far too much is being made of the Tories making an error by shifting to the right. It comes up all the time on here.
The Tories are in a tactical quandary and face being outflanked on their right. It makes complete sense to me, tactically, to try and deal with that.
The Tories have been chasing votes to their right for a decade.
They ended up with their worst election result.
Yes, chasing further right is DEFINITELY what they should do now...
Their problem under Sunak was that they were talking right-wing, but not doing right-wing, and everyone could see the disconnect between what was being said and what was being done.
I've never liked Starmer as a politician; I thought he was OK as a lawyer ..... the McLibel case ..... insofar as I ever think about lawyers (Sorry, TSE). I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
Having someone in the team willing to say "that's a bad idea" is vital.
It might have stopped all the sleaze for one thing.
Do you mean declared gifts and donations, which have been part and parcel of UK politics since time immemorial? Were you unaware of this previously?
I've never liked Starmer as a politician; I thought he was OK as a lawyer ..... the McLibel case ..... insofar as I ever think about lawyers (Sorry, TSE). I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
Having someone in the team willing to say "that's a bad idea" is vital.
It might have stopped all the sleaze for one thing.
Sleaze? Looking forward to the PPE fast lane inquiry.
It's more the Government promoting unpopular stuff and keeping quiet about perceived positives like repatriating 200 Vietnamese failed asylum seekers. Oh and rekindling dead stories like paying back Taylor Swift tickets.
I've never liked Starmer as a politician; I thought he was OK as a lawyer ..... the McLibel case ..... insofar as I ever think about lawyers (Sorry, TSE). I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
Having someone in the team willing to say "that's a bad idea" is vital.
It might have stopped all the sleaze for one thing.
Do you mean declared gifts and donations, which have been part and parcel of UK politics since time immemorial. Were you unaware of this previously?
The mistake was in taking those gifts.
It doesn't matter if its legal if it still looks bad.
Similarly to how most of the 2009 expenses scandal was about legal, declared and even unpaid things.
The problem for the Cons is that the main factions are the mad Reformites, the Cons right or wrong lack of thinkers, and the sensible, intelligent, dashing Cameroon remain types.
The first group are with Reform, the second with the Cons, and the third split between the Cons, homeless, and perhaps the LDs.
There is no way that these groups can coexist so the Cons are fucked.
Underpinning the Conservative century was that they were broadly united and their opponents were divided, usually very inefficiently. That's no longer true, and I don't see an easy way to put Humpty Dumpty together again.
It depends on how many and for how long those on the right wish to protest rather than govern.
This is the fallacy of Leon's 'I want Reform to replace the Conservatives'.
Reform are not interested in being in government.
That was true but I don’t think it is true any more
Farage senses a real opportunity - that is clear. He is now in his 60s. This is his last big gig, and he’s going to give it his all - is my sense
Yes yes he doesn’t go to Clacton. That is irrelevant. He’s a major party leader and one of the biggest figures in British politics
It is relevant.
Farage cannot be bothered to do the basic activities of being an MP.
How could he operate in government ?
Farage does things he enjoys being in government is hard work and responsibility.
It is completely irrelevant
And Reform have a real chance of overtaking the Tories. Its not probable but it is possible
I suspect you don’t like this idea which is why you reject it outright
I want to see a competent centre-right government.
So that rules out Farage, his laziness, his ego and his rabble of malcontents.
You keep fantasising about a Reform government.
Well lets assume in 2029 that we have 330+ Reform MPs and PM Farage.
What happens then ?
Do you think they could in any way run a competent government ?
How long before the tantrums and splits and scandals overwhelmed them as they discovered the restrictions and requirements of being in government ?
And yes, Farage's refusal to do the basic activities of an MP is relevant.
Because its exposes his lack of interest in the job, his lack of interest in ordinary people and his laziness.
Farage in government would combine the worst parts of Boris and the worst parts of Truss.
It wouldn't last long.
I’m not responsible for your tedious, midwitted lack of imagination
Farage is building a serious political force, so he doesn’t want to be talking about dog poo in Essex. Anyone that underestimates him is a fool (like you). He changed history by building a political party, before - with UKIP. Without Farage and UKIP we wouldn’t have Brexited
He has a shot at doing it again
So you don't have any answers.
I'll tell you what happens with a Reform government:
PM Farage gives a load of orders. People explain that they cannot be implemented. Farage has a tantrum and goes to the nearest pub. Reform MPs argue with each other Government collapses
Government involves hard work, dealing with realities, accepting the limitations of restricted resources, doing things you would rather not but have to.
The sort of thing millions of people do every day.
But not Farage.
And not you either.
Perhaps that's why you're so desperate to ignore Farage's flaws, so desperate to ignore the unfortunate realities.
I suggest you're wasting your time talking to us and meandering around eastern Europe.
If you're so confident of a Farage government why don't you join his rabble of malcontents.
A cabinet position is there for the taking if you're right.
Farage offers simple answers. First, it was that all the country's problems were down to the EU. Now, all the country's problems are down to immigration.
Neither of these was, or is, correct. But such simplistic answers are very appealing to many voters. *If* Farage and his ilk were to get voted in, one of two things would happen: either the government collapses as it turns out the 'answer' does not fix the problem; or they find another 'problem' that blocked them from properly implementing their 'answer', and develop a low-IQ 'answer' to that as well.
But you can guarantee two things: it'll always be someone else's fault; not their own; and that the 'someone else' will be an easy grouping to target.
I still think far too much is being made of the Tories making an error by shifting to the right. It comes up all the time on here.
The Tories are in a tactical quandary and face being outflanked on their right. It makes complete sense to me, tactically, to try and deal with that.
The Tories have been chasing votes to their right for a decade.
They ended up with their worst election result.
Yes, chasing further right is DEFINITELY what they should do now...
Sunak and Hunt were the current Tory left, Boris won from the right in 2019. Corbyn almost won from the left in 2017
Sunak would have been considered a right-winger if he'd been in Cameron's cabinet. The fact he's now judged to be a moderate is only because the likes of JRM, Dorries, and Braverman ended up being overpromoted by Boris.
I've never liked Starmer as a politician; I thought he was OK as a lawyer ..... the McLibel case ..... insofar as I ever think about lawyers (Sorry, TSE). I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
Having someone in the team willing to say "that's a bad idea" is vital.
It might have stopped all the sleaze for one thing.
Do you mean declared gifts and donations, which have been part and parcel of UK politics since time immemorial. Were you unaware of this previously?
The mistake was in taking those gifts.
It doesn't matter if its legal if it still looks bad.
Similarly to how most of the 2009 expenses scandal was about legal, declared and even unpaid things.
Were you unaware of the register of members interests previously? Or did you come down in the last shower?
I've never liked Starmer as a politician; I thought he was OK as a lawyer ..... the McLibel case ..... insofar as I ever think about lawyers (Sorry, TSE). I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
Having someone in the team willing to say "that's a bad idea" is vital.
It might have stopped all the sleaze for one thing.
Do you mean declared gifts and donations, which have been part and parcel of UK politics since time immemorial? Were you unaware of this previously?
Did you think the same about the expenses scandal?
I still think far too much is being made of the Tories making an error by shifting to the right. It comes up all the time on here.
The Tories are in a tactical quandary and face being outflanked on their right. It makes complete sense to me, tactically, to try and deal with that.
The Tories have been chasing votes to their right for a decade.
They ended up with their worst election result.
Yes, chasing further right is DEFINITELY what they should do now...
Sunak and Hunt were the current Tory left, Boris won from the right in 2019. Corbyn almost won from the left in 2017
Sunak a Tory wet? He's dryer than emery cloth. He's about as fiscally conservative as anyone could be. Johnson was neither fiscally or socially conservative although he did promote lots of fiscal and social conservatives.
The Home Office stats on small boats arrivals continue to fascinate (so much so that the link on Google says “you visit often”, which makes me look like some Reform UK boat obsessive).
On Friday 7 boats arrived, carrying 395 people between them. In the previous 6 days only 1 boat, with 59 people. Similar pattern in other weeks. It’s like the smugglers plan a sort of periodic regatta. Perhaps that tactic is intended to overwhelm the border force, like saturation drone strikes.
Rates this autumn continue to be comfortably below last year and way down on 2022. They’re also lower than 2021. Whereas early summer we were ahead of recent years.
Why? It’s too early to be related to change of government, surely. Weather? Slowing pipeline?
Most weeks there are more preventions than successful landings. I assume these are French police finding the boats on the beach and sticking a big pen knife in the hull. Maybe they’re getting a bit better at it.
It’s all crying out for a police-camera-action style docu series.
I've never liked Starmer as a politician; I thought he was OK as a lawyer ..... the McLibel case ..... insofar as I ever think about lawyers (Sorry, TSE). I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
Having someone in the team willing to say "that's a bad idea" is vital.
It might have stopped all the sleaze for one thing.
Do you mean declared gifts and donations, which have been part and parcel of UK politics since time immemorial? Were you unaware of this previously?
Did you think the same about the expenses scandal?
I thought it similarly trivial froth. The duck house was amusing, though.
I think the locals will be fine for the Tories, but it's spot-on to say the party absolutely loves pissing contests, factionalism and votes of no confidence - rather than thinking and pulling together - so, sadly, I think this is very likely.
I hold out little hope.
"Other parties are available"
Indeed. It's likely that the 2025 locals will have the lowest Lab+ Con percentage vote for UK elections in the modern era.
I'd expect both parties to lose seats, but how many and which parties will win those council seats?
In many respects the big test is for Reform, the Lib Dems and Greens. All three had a great 2024GE. Which of them can build the momentum in opposition?
I still think far too much is being made of the Tories making an error by shifting to the right. It comes up all the time on here.
The Tories are in a tactical quandary and face being outflanked on their right. It makes complete sense to me, tactically, to try and deal with that.
The Tories have been chasing votes to their right for a decade.
They ended up with their worst election result.
Yes, chasing further right is DEFINITELY what they should do now...
Their problem under Sunak was that they were talking right-wing, but not doing right-wing, and everyone could see the disconnect between what was being said and what was being done.
Ah, the classic “the Tories lost because they were insufficiently rightwing” argument. Go for your life lad!
The problem for the Cons is that the main factions are the mad Reformites, the Cons right or wrong lack of thinkers, and the sensible, intelligent, dashing Cameroon remain types.
The first group are with Reform, the second with the Cons, and the third split between the Cons, homeless, and perhaps the LDs.
There is no way that these groups can coexist so the Cons are fucked.
Underpinning the Conservative century was that they were broadly united and their opponents were divided, usually very inefficiently. That's no longer true, and I don't see an easy way to put Humpty Dumpty together again.
It depends on how many and for how long those on the right wish to protest rather than govern.
This is the fallacy of Leon's 'I want Reform to replace the Conservatives'.
Reform are not interested in being in government.
That was true but I don’t think it is true any more
Farage senses a real opportunity - that is clear. He is now in his 60s. This is his last big gig, and he’s going to give it his all - is my sense
Yes yes he doesn’t go to Clacton. That is irrelevant. He’s a major party leader and one of the biggest figures in British politics
It is relevant.
Farage cannot be bothered to do the basic activities of being an MP.
How could he operate in government ?
Farage does things he enjoys being in government is hard work and responsibility.
It is completely irrelevant
And Reform have a real chance of overtaking the Tories. Its not probable but it is possible
I suspect you don’t like this idea which is why you reject it outright
I want to see a competent centre-right government.
So that rules out Farage, his laziness, his ego and his rabble of malcontents.
You keep fantasising about a Reform government.
Well lets assume in 2029 that we have 330+ Reform MPs and PM Farage.
What happens then ?
Do you think they could in any way run a competent government ?
How long before the tantrums and splits and scandals overwhelmed them as they discovered the restrictions and requirements of being in government ?
And yes, Farage's refusal to do the basic activities of an MP is relevant.
Because its exposes his lack of interest in the job, his lack of interest in ordinary people and his laziness.
Farage in government would combine the worst parts of Boris and the worst parts of Truss.
It wouldn't last long.
I’m not responsible for your tedious, midwitted lack of imagination
Farage is building a serious political force, so he doesn’t want to be talking about dog poo in Essex. Anyone that underestimates him is a fool (like you). He changed history by building a political party, before - with UKIP. Without Farage and UKIP we wouldn’t have Brexited
He has a shot at doing it again
So you don't have any answers.
I'll tell you what happens with a Reform government:
PM Farage gives a load of orders. People explain that they cannot be implemented. Farage has a tantrum and goes to the nearest pub. Reform MPs argue with each other Government collapses
Government involves hard work, dealing with realities, accepting the limitations of restricted resources, doing things you would rather not but have to.
The sort of thing millions of people do every day.
But not Farage.
And not you either.
Perhaps that's why you're so desperate to ignore Farage's flaws, so desperate to ignore the unfortunate realities.
I suggest you're wasting your time talking to us and meandering around eastern Europe.
If you're so confident of a Farage government why don't you join his rabble of malcontents.
A cabinet position is there for the taking if you're right.
Farage offers simple answers. First, it was that all the country's problems were down to the EU. Now, all the country's problems are down to immigration.
Neither of these was, or is, correct. But such simplistic answers are very appealing to many voters. *If* Farage and his ilk were to get voted in, one of two things would happen: either the government collapses as it turns out the 'answer' does not fix the problem; or they find another 'problem' that blocked them from properly implementing their 'answer', and develop a low-IQ 'answer' to that as well.
But you can guarantee two things: it'll always be someone else's fault; not their own; and that the 'someone else' will be an easy grouping to target.
I think Bismarck was wrong when he said that "politics is the art of the possible".
I still think far too much is being made of the Tories making an error by shifting to the right. It comes up all the time on here.
The Tories are in a tactical quandary and face being outflanked on their right. It makes complete sense to me, tactically, to try and deal with that.
The Tories have been chasing votes to their right for a decade.
They ended up with their worst election result.
Yes, chasing further right is DEFINITELY wh they should do now...
Sunak and Hunt were the current Tory left, Boris won from the right in 2019. Corbyn almost won from the left in 2017
I think the country does need to have the decent right-wing view represented in Parliament, young HY. Do you not have a single Conservative MP who fits this description who could take over the leadership?
The nearest you got to it in this election was poor, old Mel Stride, and he could attract the support of only 16 of his fellow MPs.
I think the locals will be fine for the Tories, but it's spot-on to say the party absolutely loves pissing contests, factionalism and votes of no confidence - rather than thinking and pulling together - so, sadly, I think this is very likely.
I hold out little hope.
"Other parties are available"
Indeed. It's likely that the 2025 locals will have the lowest Lab+ Con percentage vote for UK elections in the modern era.
I'd expect both parties to lose seats, but how many and which parties will win those council seats?
In many respects the big test is for Reform, the Lib Dems and Greens. All three had a great 2024GE. Which of them can build the momentum in opposition?
Early on? Watch the Greens, I think. Poised to do the same to a disappointing left wing government that Reform have done to the Tories: act as a repository for protest votes.
I thought Donald Trump said at the RNC he'd never talk about the assassination attempt again?
In the snippets I heard Trump sounded worryingly on form yesterday, horrible as that form is. Otoh Musk's absolutely cringworthy performance may negate that.
There have been some epic deluges in Eastern Europe in the past few days. It rained for 24 hours solid in Budapest midweek.
All that cyclonic flow in West and Central Europe has been drawing up record heat into the East and North. Ukraine about 4C above average in September, records falling across the Nordics too, while Iberia’s been getting the cold.
I've never liked Starmer as a politician; I thought he was OK as a lawyer ..... the McLibel case ..... insofar as I ever think about lawyers (Sorry, TSE). I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
Having someone in the team willing to say "that's a bad idea" is vital.
It might have stopped all the sleaze for one thing.
Do you mean declared gifts and donations, which have been part and parcel of UK politics since time immemorial? Were you unaware of this previously?
Did you think the same about the expenses scandal?
That was by and large against the rules. There was fraud, it was corrupt!
Several Labour MPs went to jail. It wasn't entirely Labour corruption despite how the Telegraph promoted the issue, Viggar's duck house was a comedic case in point but outlined how ridiculous the corruption had become. There was also a married couple whose behaviour was so wilful I cannot understand how at least one of them didn't see a day in court.
I still think far too much is being made of the Tories making an error by shifting to the right. It comes up all the time on here.
The Tories are in a tactical quandary and face being outflanked on their right. It makes complete sense to me, tactically, to try and deal with that.
We also don’t quite know where the centre ground is going to be in 5 years time.
I get that a lot of people on here yearn for a sensible, early-Cameroon managerial competent centrist Tory Party. That kind of party most closely matches my views too. But the political landscape has changed dramatically since the late 00s, and it’s not a given that that brand of conservatism is the way to win anymore.
The last time one of the major two parties in British politics was replaced by another it was because it was outflanked on the extremes. A party cannot reach out towards the centre until it has secured its core vote.
One way or another the Tories have to either defeat or assimilate Reform. Otherwise they face being eclipsed.
I still think far too much is being made of the Tories making an error by shifting to the right. It comes up all the time on here.
The Tories are in a tactical quandary and face being outflanked on their right. It makes complete sense to me, tactically, to try and deal with that.
The Tories have been chasing votes to their right for a decade.
They ended up with their worst election result.
Yes, chasing further right is DEFINITELY wh they should do now...
Sunak and Hunt were the current Tory left, Boris won from the right in 2019. Corbyn almost won from the left in 2017
I think the country does need to have the decent right-wing view represented in Parliament, young HY. Do you not have a single Conservative MP who fits this description who could take over the leadership?
The nearest you got to it in this election was poor, old Mel Stride, and he could attract the support of only 16 of his fellow MPs.
Mel Stride has no charisma and polled worse with voters than Tugendhat. If you want to appeal to ex Tory LD voters pick Tugendhat, Labour voters Cleverly, if you want to appeal to Tory to Reform voters Jenrick or Badenoch.
Stride offered nothing the above didn’t, a half decent Treasury Minister is his level
I've never liked Starmer as a politician; I thought he was OK as a lawyer ..... the McLibel case ..... insofar as I ever think about lawyers (Sorry, TSE). I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
Having someone in the team willing to say "that's a bad idea" is vital.
It might have stopped all the sleaze for one thing.
Do you mean declared gifts and donations, which have been part and parcel of UK politics since time immemorial. Were you unaware of this previously?
The mistake was in taking those gifts.
It doesn't matter if its legal if it still looks bad.
Similarly to how most of the 2009 expenses scandal was about legal, declared and even unpaid things.
Were you unaware of the register of members interests previously? Or did you come down in the last shower?
You keep babbling about that register as if anyone cares.
The sleaze happened, the damage is done.
Now if Starmer has sense he'll make sure that there is no more sleaze.
But feel free to advise him that there's no problem.
There have been some epic deluges in Eastern Europe in the past few days. It rained for 24 hours solid in Budapest midweek.
All that cyclonic flow in West and Central Europe has been drawing up record heat into the East and North. Ukraine about 4C above average in September, records falling across the Nordics too, while Iberia’s been getting the cold.
Highest ever October temperature in Diego Garcia at 35.5c.
The dark heart of Scottish nationalism rears its head again.
The activist who triggered the fraud investigation into SNP finances claims that he has been “persecuted” by fellow nationalists and received death threats.
Independence campaigner Sean Clerkin reported concerns to police about the whereabouts of more than £600,000 of funding that had been raised for a second referendum three years ago....
...In the interview, Clerkin said he had been ostracised by some nationalists and had faced intimidation.
“All these years down the line I have been persecuted by nationalists who have persecuted me on social media and at rallies,” he said. “Threatening to do me in, threatened to take me out and I have had death threats.”
Little Englanders believe and regurgitate any old shit printed by London propaganda units.
I had reason to come across a semi-official online communication from Clerkin last year. Let's just say somewhere between deranged and barely literate. Or dEranJeD & BArLeyLiTrATe!!!?!
You can always tell PBScotchExperts (edit: or at least the less clued-up ones) by their confusing Clerkin and his lot with the SNP, Slab, etc. etc.
Sean Clerkin is a member of the Scottish Socialist Party, AFAIK.
I've never liked Starmer as a politician; I thought he was OK as a lawyer ..... the McLibel case ..... insofar as I ever think about lawyers (Sorry, TSE). I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
Having someone in the team willing to say "that's a bad idea" is vital.
It might have stopped all the sleaze for one thing.
Do you mean declared gifts and donations, which have been part and parcel of UK politics since time immemorial. Were you unaware of this previously?
The mistake was in taking those gifts.
It doesn't matter if its legal if it still looks bad.
Similarly to how most of the 2009 expenses scandal was about legal, declared and even unpaid things.
Were you unaware of the register of members interests previously? Or did you come down in the last shower?
You keep babbling about that register as if anyone cares.
The sleaze happened, the damage is done.
Now if Starmer has sense he'll make sure that there is no more sleaze.
But feel free to advise him that there's no problem.
You can consult the register each and every year, it is trivially googleable. Personally I find it beyond weird that the PB Puritans get tumescent over the shock-horror of “party donor donates to party”. But whatever floats your boat.
There have been some epic deluges in Eastern Europe in the past few days. It rained for 24 hours solid in Budapest midweek.
All that cyclonic flow in West and Central Europe has been drawing up record heat into the East and North. Ukraine about 4C above average in September, records falling across the Nordics too, while Iberia’s been getting the cold.
Highest ever October temperature in Diego Garcia at 35.5c.
Certainly much hot air therein from the PB Tories.
I still think far too much is being made of the Tories making an error by shifting to the right. It comes up all the time on here.
The Tories are in a tactical quandary and face being outflanked on their right. It makes complete sense to me, tactically, to try and deal with that.
We also don’t quite know where the centre ground is going to be in 5 years time.
I get that a lot of people on here yearn for a sensible, early-Cameroon managerial competent centrist Tory Party. That kind of party most closely matches my views too. But the political landscape has changed dramatically since the late 00s, and it’s not a given that that brand of conservatism is the way to win anymore.
The last time one of the major two parties in British politics was replaced by another it was because it was outflanked on the extremes. A party cannot reach out towards the centre until it has secured its core vote.
One way or another the Tories have to either defeat or assimilate Reform. Otherwise they face being eclipsed.
Only under FPTP if we had PR a Tory and Reform coalition government would be possible
I've never liked Starmer as a politician; I thought he was OK as a lawyer ..... the McLibel case ..... insofar as I ever think about lawyers (Sorry, TSE). I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
Having someone in the team willing to say "that's a bad idea" is vital.
It might have stopped all the sleaze for one thing.
Do you mean declared gifts and donations, which have been part and parcel of UK politics since time immemorial. Were you unaware of this previously?
The mistake was in taking those gifts.
It doesn't matter if its legal if it still looks bad.
Similarly to how most of the 2009 expenses scandal was about legal, declared and even unpaid things.
Were you unaware of the register of members interests previously? Or did you come down in the last shower?
I think the majority of the population were unaware just how much of it goes on. It's all perfectly legal and above board, but the sheer amount of freebies and money washing around is just mind boggling to most of us, even more so if you're a pensioner that's just had the WFA taken from you. MPs are elected to serve the citizens not fill their boots and as the old saying goes, there's no such thing as a free lunch. So legal or not, I'd suspect it's taken a large part of the population by surprise. I'd personally like to see it reined in.
That was from yesterday, the downed aircraft was an S-70 experimental “stealth drone”, which presumably malfunctioned and was shot down at close range. It landed in Ukranian territory, and likely contains a lot of technology which they might find useful.
Oh, and the pictures of the wreckage show it to be anything but stealthy, unless riveted sheet metal now meets that description!
Its the best they can do, which is a mercy at the moment.
You should see the Blu-tack holding their nukes together.
Sanction that and we can cross any red line we choose.
The Russian ICBM test from the other week was quite spectacular in its failure.
Not only did it completely destroy the silo from which it was supposed to be launched, it also took out pretty much every structure in the entire facility.
I know it’s not a risk worth taking, but there’s a pretty good chance that any Russian attempt to launch a big bucket of sunshine doesn’t quite go according to plan. Most of the equipment is very old.
It was such a wipeout, you wonder how many of the team making the thing were actually a safe distance away.
Still, saves Putin the effort of shoving them out a window for their failure.
They’ve now managed to launch one and blow up four of these rockets, so an 80% failure rate.
The rumour is that this latest one was being fuelled rather than launched, so could well have been people close to it. Not that we’ll ever get the full story of course. These accidents that take out whole facilities can set projects back years in terms of lost equipment and personnel.
The way the Americans used to play with the storable liquids was to hook everything up, and turn on the pumps from a distance.
Then you wait until the instruments say everything is at steady state. Then go back.
Remember not to drop any tools, though.
Yes that’s the correct way to do it, set up all the piping and connections ‘dry’, then retire to a safe distance and operate the pumps and valves remotely to fuel your launch vehicle.
Not sure how well practiced the Russians and Chinese are when it comes to this though, especially not on the military side. I can well imagine them sending in a man to investigate a stuck valve or other minor anomoly.
After the war, the Americans were curious as to how the Imperial Japanese Navy dealt with liquid oxygen in their torpedos. Especially defuelling for maintenance.
The Japanese explained that it was very simple - put the torpedo on a convenient sand bank or beach. Send the most junior crewman with a spanner. Watch from a long distance away….
I've never liked Starmer as a politician; I thought he was OK as a lawyer ..... the McLibel case ..... insofar as I ever think about lawyers (Sorry, TSE). I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
Having someone in the team willing to say "that's a bad idea" is vital.
It might have stopped all the sleaze for one thing.
Do you mean declared gifts and donations, which have been part and parcel of UK politics since time immemorial? Were you unaware of this previously?
Did you think the same about the expenses scandal?
That was by and large against the rules. There was fraud, it was corrupt!
Several Labour MPs went to jail. It wasn't entirely Labour corruption despite how the Telegraph promoted the issue, Viggar's duck house was a comedic case in point but outlined how ridiculous the corruption had become. There was also a married couple whose behaviour was so wilful I cannot understand how at least one of them didn't see a day in court.
The duck house wasn't even paid for on expenses.
But it still became a symbol of the sleaze.
An example of how something trivially irrelevant can affect public perception rather than the far more serious items which involved actual criminality and convictions.
In the same way it doesn't matter if Starmer's gifts were declared if they still impact on public perceptions of him.
Utter bollocks and he even gives the reasons for that: “I've been paid a lot more since, to do a lot less”.
It’s like being PM (though the PM should get the Can Sec’s salary). £200k is enough for you and your family to not worry about cash whilst you are in the job at public expense; and then when you leave you will massively top up.
Quite a lot of more junior civil servants are underpaid because they lack the profile to clean up afterwards, including just a rung or two down, and fixing that might nudge the Cab Sec up a bit, but no more.
I think the locals will be fine for the Tories, but it's spot-on to say the party absolutely loves pissing contests, factionalism and votes of no confidence - rather than thinking and pulling together - so, sadly, I think this is very likely.
I hold out little hope.
The anti-European ‘bastards’ really have wrecked your party, haven’t they?
Capital equipment producers are usually a leading indicator of changes in economic activity in the wider economy.
If Starmer has to deal with a proper full fat recession, for the first time since people got used to concepts like furlough, then I think we can conclude that his genie didn’t offer unlimited wishes after all.
I think the locals will be fine for the Tories, but it's spot-on to say the party absolutely loves pissing contests, factionalism and votes of no confidence - rather than thinking and pulling together - so, sadly, I think this is very likely.
I hold out little hope.
The 2025 elections are the county elections from 2021 where Covid ensured the Tories did very well. It's going to be bad for the Tories as they tend Lib Dem or Reform..
Boosted by the credibility of having a LibDem MP, in many cases the first in a century, I’d hope for some impressive LibDem results in the Home Counties.
I've never liked Starmer as a politician; I thought he was OK as a lawyer ..... the McLibel case ..... insofar as I ever think about lawyers (Sorry, TSE). I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
Having someone in the team willing to say "that's a bad idea" is vital.
It might have stopped all the sleaze for one thing.
Do you mean declared gifts and donations, which have been part and parcel of UK politics since time immemorial? Were you unaware of this previously?
Did you think the same about the expenses scandal?
That was by and large against the rules. There was fraud, it was corrupt!
Several Labour MPs went to jail. It wasn't entirely Labour corruption despite how the Telegraph promoted the issue, Viggar's duck house was a comedic case in point but outlined how ridiculous the corruption had become. There was also a married couple whose behaviour was so wilful I cannot understand how at least one of them didn't see a day in court.
The duck house wasn't even paid for on expenses.
But it still became a symbol of the sleaze.
An example of how something trivially irrelevant can affect public perception rather than the far more serious items which involved actual criminality and convictions.
In the same way it doesn't matter if Starmer's gifts were declared if they still impact on public perceptions of him.
Ah you see, it does matter. Just because some of the public have been whipped into a frenzy by a hypocritical media doesn’t mean that what Lord Alli did was wrong. If a Labour donor wants to donate a clothing allowance to the First Lady, so what? Just because ‘Another Richard’, the bloke on the internet, thinks her couture is frivolous, while he sits at home In his hair shirt.
Comments
It seems to me all the remaining Conservative MPs are willing to attack a leader who departs from their own agenda. So any new leader has the same risk.
Let's just say somewhere between deranged and barely literate. Or dEranJeD & BArLeyLiTrATe!!!?!
Which is nice.
Farage cannot be bothered to do the basic activities of being an MP.
How could he operate in government ?
Farage does things he enjoys being in government is hard work and responsibility.
I remind him of what happened in the South of our county, in Basildon South, but he persists.
And Good Morning to everyone. Pleasant autumnal sunshine ATM.
And Reform have a real chance of overtaking the Tories. Its not probable but it is possible
I suspect you don’t like this idea which is why you reject it outright
Context is everything.
You could argue Reform represents the perceived or actual failure of the managerialist policies of both the Blair and Cameron periods which were truncated by the events of 2008 but which were largely predicated on economic growth being driven by cheap fuel, cheap food, cheap labour and cheap money.
The long period of historically low inflation and interest rates masked growing structural economic and social problems such as our reliance on cheap imported labour to fuel economic growth especially in construction and also to support large areas of public services including the NHS.
I'd also cheerfully concede the Conservative administration from 2019 onwards suffered from an unlikely series of external events which few could have predicted but sometimes it's not so much the hand you're dealt but how you play it which is important.
Starmer has come in with the maxim "the party's over" (which it wasn't for him and some of his colleagues of course) and to an extent he's right, there was always going to have to be a financial reckoning which frankly Sunak either misunderstood (unlikely) or was scared to confront (possible) or wished to leave as a poison chalice for his successor (not inconceivable).
Unfortunately, Labour's pre-election caution has boxed them into too many corners - it's likely even if they had not ruled out rises in income tax, NI and VAT they'd have won but closing down those options to raise taxes (while perhaps eliminating or mitigating the odious "fiscal drag") leaves them with fewer and less palatable choices.
Still, saves Putin the effort of shoving them out a window for their failure.
Poll Rampers and people who use raw poll data to invent their own results go to the 8th circle of Hell.
The subsample fans go to the *9th circle*. To spend the rest of eternity with Piers Morgan and Piers Corbyn, while reading the comments on Con Home.
Then again, this is Putin’s Russian.
So that rules out Farage, his laziness, his ego and his rabble of malcontents.
You keep fantasising about a Reform government.
Well lets assume in 2029 that we have 330+ Reform MPs and PM Farage.
What happens then ?
Do you think they could in any way run a competent government ?
How long before the tantrums and splits and scandals overwhelmed them as they discovered the restrictions and requirements of being in government ?
And yes, Farage's refusal to do the basic activities of an MP is relevant.
Because its exposes his lack of interest in the job, his lack of interest in ordinary people and his laziness.
Farage in government would combine the worst parts of Boris and the worst parts of Truss.
It wouldn't last long.
The rumour is that this latest one was being fuelled rather than launched, so could well have been people close to it. Not that we’ll ever get the full story of course. These accidents that take out whole facilities can set projects back years in terms of lost equipment and personnel.
It's been very difficult to be a Conservative in the last 2-3 years and obviously it's nice for the shoe (or boot) to be on the other foot and as I've said before, Starmer badly misread the public mood (as Truss did oddly enough). There is an almost puritanical desire for "fairness" among elements of the public and while we know gifts and "freebies" have been a part of politics since the year dot, there is much less public acceptance of that.
If greater probity and increased scrutiny leads to better governance, I'm all for it but I won't be holding my breath. The public standard of how they want their leaders (not just politicians I'd argue) to comport themselves has risen sharply.
The one thing Starmer has in his favour is the ongoing fragmentation of political opinion - the two party system isn't dead yet (Labour and the Conservatives still won 523 of the 633 English, Scottish and Welsh seats) but the growth of Reform, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats and the regional and socio-economic concentration of those votes so they are less in mutual competition means the 2029 election "could" be, as has happened in other countries, the point where the long-held concensus finally breaks down (unlikely but not inconceivable).
TRUSS
FARAGE
Farage is building a serious political force, so he doesn’t want to be talking about dog poo in Essex. Anyone that underestimates him is a fool (like you). He changed history by building a political party, before - with UKIP. Without Farage and UKIP we wouldn’t have Brexited
He has a shot at doing it again
The Forgettables.
Labour 2024: "Let's encourage Reform! It'll take votes off the Tories! What could go wrong?"
Then you wait until the instruments say everything is at steady state. Then go back.
Remember not to drop any tools, though.
I think FPTP and a couple of quite binary elections have delayed the vote fragmentation that much of Europe has seen, but that 2024 marks that breaking down.
Having said that, if you take the 15 largest nations West of the old iron curtain (a broad but quite specific framing), UK Labour's vote share of 33.7% is the highest of any party in any of those nations.
I don't see anything innate in FPTP that means that things can't fragment further, and I sort of agree that 2029 is likely to be another fragmentary election. 2024 established a pattern of different swings in different places: Con->Labour or LD in Con held seats, SNP->Labour in Scotland, Labour -> Left/Green in strong Labour held seats.
Those new interfaces are more strongly established now, along with re-establishment of a Lab -> Reform interface and I'd expect to see multiple behaviours again at the next election. In Con held seats, there may also be some resolution to widen the Con - LD battlefield where LD and Lab split the vote this time out.
In any case the trend is likely to be that more seats are Lab or Con Vs all comers whilst fewer are Lab v Con, and that will drive the fragmentation.
Tarra- a- bit.
I thought Starmer came into politics late, thinking he was some sort of White Knight but one needs some experience in day to day politics as in any other walk of life, and casual observance is no substitute for experience.
In all realistic national scenarios the SNP gain several seats.
Hastings of course didn't substantially change the religion of the defeated country as the Field of the Blackbirds did.
Not sure how well practiced the Russians and Chinese are when it comes to this though, especially not on the military side. I can well imagine them sending in a man to investigate a stuck valve or other minor anomoly.
I'll tell you what happens with a Reform government:
PM Farage gives a load of orders.
People explain that they cannot be implemented.
Farage has a tantrum and goes to the nearest pub.
Reform MPs argue with each other
Government collapses
Government involves hard work, dealing with realities, accepting the limitations of restricted resources, doing things you would rather not but have to.
The sort of thing millions of people do every day.
But not Farage.
And not you either.
Perhaps that's why you're so desperate to ignore Farage's flaws, so desperate to ignore the unfortunate realities.
I suggest you're wasting your time talking to us and meandering around eastern Europe.
If you're so confident of a Farage government why don't you join his rabble of malcontents.
A cabinet position is there for the taking if you're right.
It might have stopped all the sleaze for one thing.
They ended up with their worst election result.
Yes, chasing further right is DEFINITELY what they should do now...
It's more the Government promoting unpopular stuff and keeping quiet about perceived positives like repatriating 200 Vietnamese failed asylum seekers. Oh and rekindling dead stories like paying back Taylor Swift tickets.
Is Philip Schofield their Comms. Director?
It doesn't matter if its legal if it still looks bad.
Similarly to how most of the 2009 expenses scandal was about legal, declared and even unpaid things.
Neither of these was, or is, correct. But such simplistic answers are very appealing to many voters. *If* Farage and his ilk were to get voted in, one of two things would happen: either the government collapses as it turns out the 'answer' does not fix the problem; or they find another 'problem' that blocked them from properly implementing their 'answer', and develop a low-IQ 'answer' to that as well.
But you can guarantee two things: it'll always be someone else's fault; not their own; and that the 'someone else' will be an easy grouping to target.
On Friday 7 boats arrived, carrying 395 people between them. In the previous 6 days only 1 boat, with 59 people. Similar pattern in other weeks. It’s like the smugglers plan a sort of periodic regatta. Perhaps that tactic is intended to overwhelm the border force, like saturation drone strikes.
Rates this autumn continue to be comfortably below last year and way down on 2022. They’re also lower than 2021. Whereas early summer we were ahead of recent years.
September crossings:
2020 1,946
2021 4,602
2022 7,964
2023 4,729
2024 4,192
Why? It’s too early to be related to change of government, surely. Weather? Slowing pipeline?
Most weeks there are more preventions than successful landings. I assume these are French police finding the boats on the beach and sticking a big pen knife in the hull. Maybe they’re getting a bit better at it.
It’s all crying out for a police-camera-action style docu series.
In many respects the big test is for Reform, the Lib Dems and Greens. All three had a great 2024GE. Which of them can build the momentum in opposition?
Crazy rainstorm
Government is the art of the possible.
Farage deals in posture and protest.
JCB are laying off contractors due to a lack of demand, citing a slowdown in construction all across Europe.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/06/jcb-axes-hundreds-of-jobs-bosses-brace-market-downturn/
Capital equipment producers are usually a leading indicator of changes in economic activity in the wider economy.
The nearest you got to it in this election was poor, old Mel Stride, and he could attract the support of only 16 of his fellow MPs.
Europe has been drawing up record heat into the East and North. Ukraine about 4C above average in September, records falling across the Nordics too, while Iberia’s been getting the cold.
Several Labour MPs went to jail. It wasn't entirely Labour corruption despite how the Telegraph promoted the issue, Viggar's duck house was a comedic case in point but outlined how ridiculous the corruption had become. There was also a married couple whose behaviour was so wilful I cannot understand how at least one of them didn't see a day in court.
One way or another the Tories have to either defeat or assimilate Reform. Otherwise they face being eclipsed.
Stride offered nothing the above didn’t, a half decent Treasury Minister is his level
The sleaze happened, the damage is done.
Now if Starmer has sense he'll make sure that there is no more sleaze.
But feel free to advise him that there's no problem.
Really dangerous and scary. I’ve pulled over and I’m sitting it out
So legal or not, I'd suspect it's taken a large part of the population by surprise.
I'd personally like to see it reined in.
The Japanese explained that it was very simple - put the torpedo on a convenient sand bank or beach. Send the most junior crewman with a spanner. Watch from a long distance away….
But it still became a symbol of the sleaze.
An example of how something trivially irrelevant can affect public perception rather than the far more serious items which involved actual criminality and convictions.
In the same way it doesn't matter if Starmer's gifts were declared if they still impact on public perceptions of him.
Utter bollocks and he even gives the reasons for that: “I've been paid a lot more since, to do a lot less”.
It’s like being PM (though the PM should get the Can Sec’s salary). £200k is enough for you and your family to not worry about cash whilst you are in the job at public expense; and then when you leave you will massively top up.
Quite a lot of more junior civil servants are underpaid because they lack the profile to clean up afterwards, including just a rung or two down, and fixing that might nudge the Cab Sec up a bit, but no more.
973 migrants on 17 boats crossed the channel yesterday