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Let’s talk about Robert Jenrick’s balls as there are betting implications – politicalbetting.com

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  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,171

    Scott_xP said:

    Gray's resignation is a bit disappointing

    Where was the impassioned public plea for her to stay, followed by the awkward press conference in the rose garden.

    No tragic pictures of her lugging cardboard box out the front door.

    Sad...

    Well Starmer's own rose garden press conference caused a lot of the issues we are seeing 5 weeks on. The f##k you I will continue to take all the tiny soaps, bath robes and flip flops from the hotel bathroom if i want went down like a lead balloon.
    I reckon he takes the remote control batteries and the shower curtains too....
    You know you are in a bad hotel when not only is the battery compartment secured with a special screw, but the control itself it on a really short cable.
    You know Leon probably hasn't stayed there.

    Or they are taking precautions, just in case.
    I always steal the little bottles of shampoo etc, they are great for when you are travelling hand luggage only. Or as backup as I sometimes stay in a hotel where they don't replenish over the weekend, or the soap dispenser gives out something like Swarfega
    That swarfega is handy for when you've been trying to get that tricky screw off the remote control cover...
    I had one hotel in Bangkok where there were no batteries in the room safe, and I couldn't make the guy on reception understand what the problem was. I presume the last guest had stolen them! It didn't occur to me to try the remote control. Although next time I visit that part of the world I will take some AA and AAA batteries with me
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,540
    Nunu5 said:

    The BBC are saying Trump and Harris are deadlocked. Is this an accurate assessment ?

    As far as we can tell, I think so.

    Most people would accept that Pennsylvania has a very good chance of being the tipping point state again this time. 538 seem to be the best poll aggregator, and their most recent polling average has Harris up by only 0.6pp, but the latest published poll had fieldwork ending on the 29th. So it's certainly very close.

    Deadlocked implies something a bit different, that the situation is quite fixed, with little able to move support one way or the other. I think that's also accurate, on the basis of the large number of people who have made up their minds.

    I suppose it is possible that the polling is systematically biased, and either Trump has a large lead (due to the economy), or Harris has a large lead (due to not being Trump), but how would you tell?
    PA was not the tipping point state the last two times. It was Wisconsin.
    Happy to be corrected. A modest change from last time implied by the current polls.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,222
    This thread (which I agree with entirely) highlights exactly why the membership should have no say in the election of party leaders.

    The party leader in modern parties has to have the confidence and support of the MPs. Once they are elected almost nothing else matters in terms of their leadership. The only people who can remove a leader are the MPs and the MPs will use this to dictate how the leader acts in either opposition or in Government.

    But worse than that, the threat of a membership vote at the end warps the leadership campaign. It all becomes about getting into the members vote rather than securing majority support amongst the MPs. As has already been pointed out, a candidate only needs the consistent support of 1/3rd of the party's MPs to get into the membership ballot. This encourages them to apeal to smaller, powerful cliques rather than seeking a broadr spectrum support of the majority of party MPs.

    It is a stupid system which encourages extremism and it is no surprise to me that the Tories have become far more fractious and divided since this system was introduced.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,886

    TimS said:

    Nearly 1000 migrants crossed the Channel in small boats on Saturday, the highest number this year.

    A total of 973 migrants in 17 boats reached the UK, beating the previous record for 2024 – which was 882 people on 18 June.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/06/1000-migrants-crossed-channel-breaking-record/

    Did you or Casino see the various posts earlier?

    There is a weekly pattern with crossings peaking at the weekend. Before Friday the previous 6 days only had one boat crossing.

    Numbers remain high by historical measures but are down on 2023, 2022 and (in the last month) 2021. And have gone from running way ahead of 2023 year to date up to 4 July to comfortably behind year to date now.

    I doubt any of that is thanks to some amazing new Labour policy, but perspective vs the last few years of Tory rule is important.
    Yet, strangely, these year on year reductions got given no credit by Labour during the election campaign, when the idea was to batter Rishi on the topic.

    So fuck it.
    2023 was the first year that arrivals went down.

    And it was Rishi that was banging on about Stop the Boats, and Farage, not Labour.



  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,585
    Taz said:

    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    When I look at this govt they truly exude professionalism. Well done Sue.
    You cannot be serious. The first few months has been a clusterfuck of stupidity. Mandleson has to feature somewhere.....
  • biggles said:

    biggles said:

    Fishing said:

    Boat crossings across the Channel are completely out of control

    And it's very clear Starmer has no plan to deal with them whatsoever

    So rather like the economy, the health service, our aging society, the war in the Middle East, our relations with Europe, etc., etc., etc. then?
    I really miss the early coalition years sometimes. The coalition agreement meant they had a very clear plan, and they more or less did stick to it. I think parts of that plan were foolish, but they stuck to it. Other governments since would have done well to have copied it.
    Also helps they had some talented people. Having the Lib Dems onboard boosted the talent pool with likes of Steve Webb, Danny Alexander and Norman Lamb just getting on doing the work.
    Yes, Steve Webb and Norman Lamb are brilliant examples of round pegs in round holes.
    Of course the allusion began originally in building timber frame houses. The point was you were MEANT to put a square peg in a round hole. A round peg does not grip and so falls out and so the edifice falls down.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,026
    edited 1:39PM
    MattW said:

    My photo of the day is a screenshot of the new "Operation SNAP Map" for Wales, which is a map of convictions for offences reported by Dashcammers, Cyclecammers and Motorbike Cammers in Wales. There's a time delay, of course.

    This feels like a potentially very powerful tool for identifying areas of the Highway Network which need attention for safety reasons, as we get this process in place everywhere. And as an easy-to-understand tool to use with Councillors or other influencers, since so much of this stuff results from Road Conditions.

    Link: (Op SNAP tab):
    https://www.gosafe.org/camera-map/

    One thing I've spotted is people using road mileage data to "prove" that a road is actually safe. Number of crashes (or reports)/number of vehicles. I can imagine people doing that with this data.

    I think that is a flawed approach. The level or protection a junction or road offers should be influenced by the number of people who use it, even if there are more inherently dangerous junctions in quieter parts of the network,

    The only argument against that is routes that should have lots of pedestrians/cyclists but do not (presumably because of how dangerous those roads feel) . Robin Lovelace at Leeds Uni does some excellent stuff on this: https://www.robinlovelace.net/post/2016-12-21-cyclestreets-pct/
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,034
    MattW said:

    My photo of the day is a screenshot of the new "Operation SNAP Map" for Wales, which is a map of convictions for offences reported by Dashcammers, Cyclecammers and Motorbike Cammers in Wales. There's a time delay, of course.

    This feels like a potentially very powerful tool for identifying areas of the Highway Network which need attention for safety reasons, as we get this process in place everywhere. And as an easy-to-understand tool to use with Councillors or other influencers, since so much of this stuff results from Road Conditions.

    Link: (Op SNAP tab):
    https://www.gosafe.org/camera-map/

    hopefully they will start charging the morons that do 30-40 on national roads and always drive in fast lane regardless
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,749
    biggles said:

    Taz said:

    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    When I look at this govt they truly exude professionalism. Well done Sue.
    It’s all about percentage improvement on what came before…
    So the other lot were shit, so this lot being slightly less shit but still shit makes it okay !
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,034
    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Nearly 1000 migrants crossed the Channel in small boats on Saturday, the highest number this year.

    A total of 973 migrants in 17 boats reached the UK, beating the previous record for 2024 – which was 882 people on 18 June.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/06/1000-migrants-crossed-channel-breaking-record/

    That Starmer - he's a record breaker!
    Except - see stats - he’s very much not.
    And is another example of bad PR by Labour. They should be trumpeting that numbers have fallen. Sunak would have, in the same situation. But silence. I assume they’re unwilling to make a hostage to fortune.
    Not sure it's bad PR. They might have just decided not to bang on about small boats.
    too busy defending back handers
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,026
    malcolmg said:

    MattW said:

    My photo of the day is a screenshot of the new "Operation SNAP Map" for Wales, which is a map of convictions for offences reported by Dashcammers, Cyclecammers and Motorbike Cammers in Wales. There's a time delay, of course.

    This feels like a potentially very powerful tool for identifying areas of the Highway Network which need attention for safety reasons, as we get this process in place everywhere. And as an easy-to-understand tool to use with Councillors or other influencers, since so much of this stuff results from Road Conditions.

    Link: (Op SNAP tab):
    https://www.gosafe.org/camera-map/

    hopefully they will start charging the morons that do 30-40 on national roads and always drive in fast lane regardless
    Saw someone get pulled over for that on the M9 a few weeks ago. Not enough traffic cops to keep on top of it but good to see!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 69,016

    The BBC are saying Trump and Harris are deadlocked. Is this an accurate assessment ?

    Anyone's guess.
    While the polls are fairly static, no one knows if they're going to get it wrong all over again.

    For example:
    Good piece from @Nate_Cohn on how 2/3 of polls are now effectively herding toward the last election result.

    As a result, many polls are showing little change from 2020 both nationally and in most states. Historically, that would be EXTREMELY unusual.

    https://x.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1842910300523082222

    One characteristic problem is for pollsters to weight their samples by recalled 2019 vote...
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,749
    malcolmg said:

    geoffw said:

    Taz said:

    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    When I look at this govt they truly exude professionalism. Well done Sue.
    Most of Number 10's embarrassments have been on the political side which was supposed to be down to McSweeney, with Sue Gray sorting out governance. Speaking of which, we are still a top civil servant down now Case has quit or been ousted (delete as appropriate).
    Perhaps Gray could take that job. On the revolving door principle

    she has the golden handshake of a nothing job, Envoy to the nations, what absolute bollox.
    All paid for by the taxpayer Malc. Shameless.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,034
    Taz said:

    biggles said:

    Taz said:

    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    When I look at this govt they truly exude professionalism. Well done Sue.
    It’s all about percentage improvement on what came before…
    So the other lot were shit, so this lot being slightly less shit but still shit makes it okay !
    lots of easily pleased morons in the UK Taz, unfortunately.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,716
    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,540

    This thread (which I agree with entirely) highlights exactly why the membership should have no say in the election of party leaders.

    The party leader in modern parties has to have the confidence and support of the MPs. Once they are elected almost nothing else matters in terms of their leadership. The only people who can remove a leader are the MPs and the MPs will use this to dictate how the leader acts in either opposition or in Government.

    But worse than that, the threat of a membership vote at the end warps the leadership campaign. It all becomes about getting into the members vote rather than securing majority support amongst the MPs. As has already been pointed out, a candidate only needs the consistent support of 1/3rd of the party's MPs to get into the membership ballot. This encourages them to apeal to smaller, powerful cliques rather than seeking a broadr spectrum support of the majority of party MPs.

    It is a stupid system which encourages extremism and it is no surprise to me that the Tories have become far more fractious and divided since this system was introduced.

    Would you do the election by MPs alone, or use an electoral college a bit like Labour's?

    In Ireland Fine Gael use an electoral college with the TDs/Senators/MEPs section worth 65%, members 25% and local councillors 10%. So a strong vote from the Parliamentary party will be decisive, but if it's evenly split the members vote comes in to play.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,034
    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    MattW said:

    My photo of the day is a screenshot of the new "Operation SNAP Map" for Wales, which is a map of convictions for offences reported by Dashcammers, Cyclecammers and Motorbike Cammers in Wales. There's a time delay, of course.

    This feels like a potentially very powerful tool for identifying areas of the Highway Network which need attention for safety reasons, as we get this process in place everywhere. And as an easy-to-understand tool to use with Councillors or other influencers, since so much of this stuff results from Road Conditions.

    Link: (Op SNAP tab):
    https://www.gosafe.org/camera-map/

    hopefully they will start charging the morons that do 30-40 on national roads and always drive in fast lane regardless
    Saw someone get pulled over for that on the M9 a few weeks ago. Not enough traffic cops to keep on top of it but good to see!
    worse now than it has ever been
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,728
    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    If it's preannounced then the stampede of transactions before the deadline could have significant unintended consequences.
  • WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 322
    edited 1:52PM
    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,221
    edited 1:53PM
    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    An exit tax with anti forestalling measures would be a devilishly naughty thing to do. I don’t expect to see it, but such things do exist elsewhere.

    Of course we could just take the US approach: we don’t care where you live now, if you’re a citizen earning above a certain level we’ll just tax you anyway. And you’ll have to file a horrendously long paper tax return into the bargain too.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,221

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    If it's preannounced then the stampede of transactions before the deadline could have significant unintended consequences.
    A pre-announced CGT rate rise would lead to a bonanza of short term tax receipts, and a bonanza for advisory firms too. Followed by a deals famine for a while.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,644

    This thread (which I agree with entirely) highlights exactly why the membership should have no say in the election of party leaders.

    The party leader in modern parties has to have the confidence and support of the MPs. Once they are elected almost nothing else matters in terms of their leadership. The only people who can remove a leader are the MPs and the MPs will use this to dictate how the leader acts in either opposition or in Government.

    But worse than that, the threat of a membership vote at the end warps the leadership campaign. It all becomes about getting into the members vote rather than securing majority support amongst the MPs. As has already been pointed out, a candidate only needs the consistent support of 1/3rd of the party's MPs to get into the membership ballot. This encourages them to apeal to smaller, powerful cliques rather than seeking a broadr spectrum support of the majority of party MPs.

    It is a stupid system which encourages extremism and it is no surprise to me that the Tories have become far more fractious and divided since this system was introduced.

    Bring back the men in grey suits.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,728
    TimS said:

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    If it's preannounced then the stampede of transactions before the deadline could have significant unintended consequences.
    A pre-announced CGT rate rise would lead to a bonanza of short term tax receipts, and a bonanza for advisory firms too. Followed by a deals famine for a while.
    Possibly a short term house price boom too if there's a lot of money looking for a home.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,993
    malcolmg said:

    MattW said:

    My photo of the day is a screenshot of the new "Operation SNAP Map" for Wales, which is a map of convictions for offences reported by Dashcammers, Cyclecammers and Motorbike Cammers in Wales. There's a time delay, of course.

    This feels like a potentially very powerful tool for identifying areas of the Highway Network which need attention for safety reasons, as we get this process in place everywhere. And as an easy-to-understand tool to use with Councillors or other influencers, since so much of this stuff results from Road Conditions.

    Link: (Op SNAP tab):
    https://www.gosafe.org/camera-map/

    hopefully they will start charging the morons that do 30-40 on national roads and always drive in fast lane regardless
    Leaving aside that the fast lane is the overtaking lane, I tend to agree - I think the thing there is down to not enough traffic police, possibly not enough cameras, and driver training / continuing education.

    Two things that we can immediately do is restoring the traffic police specialism removed by Mr Blair in 2002, and restoring the numbers - there are plenty of offences that cannot be easily controlled by camera such as nitrous use and drink driving.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,019
    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    I suspect Starmer sacked Gray from her previous role, given she's been moved to a new role. It was probably a discussion on the lines of "This is not working out. What do you want to do about it?"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,644
    Sue Gray is out.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,728
    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    I suspect Starmer sacked Gray from her previous role, given she's been moved to a new role. It was probably a discussion on the lines of "This is not working out. What do you want to do about it?"
    When she was first hired we were told that she would enable Starmer to hit the ground running with lots of well-planned legislation in his first 100 days in office. To say that it didn't work out is a bit of an understatement.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,865
    Nigelb said:

    biggles said:

    Fishing said:

    Boat crossings across the Channel are completely out of control

    And it's very clear Starmer has no plan to deal with them whatsoever

    So rather like the economy, the health service, our aging society, the war in the Middle East, our relations with Europe, etc., etc., etc. then?
    I really miss the early coalition years sometimes. The coalition agreement meant they had a very clear plan, and they more or less did stick to it. I think parts of that plan were foolish, but they stuck to it. Other governments since would have done well to have copied it.
    Also helps they had some talented people. Having the Lib Dems onboard boosted the talent pool with likes of Steve Webb, Danny Alexander and Norman Lamb just getting on doing the work.
    In return for which, they got shafted at the next election, of course.
    Of course. The Tories have no gratitude. Nor foresight. Which is why they are suffering now with this shabby gang of incompetents and scoundrels.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,716

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
    The UK can kiss its wealth creators goodbye. The young and entrepreneurial minded will leave to start businesses elsewhere. They will catch a few people with money on their way out (although accounting tricks will be used to minimise the bill) and existing entrepreneurs will re-base elsewhere for their next venture.

    We need to be encouraging wealth creators and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and make money, providing jobs and growing the economy. Instead we get 1000 boat people a day. Very few of which I imagine are wealth creators...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,222
    ClippP said:

    Nigelb said:

    biggles said:

    Fishing said:

    Boat crossings across the Channel are completely out of control

    And it's very clear Starmer has no plan to deal with them whatsoever

    So rather like the economy, the health service, our aging society, the war in the Middle East, our relations with Europe, etc., etc., etc. then?
    I really miss the early coalition years sometimes. The coalition agreement meant they had a very clear plan, and they more or less did stick to it. I think parts of that plan were foolish, but they stuck to it. Other governments since would have done well to have copied it.
    Also helps they had some talented people. Having the Lib Dems onboard boosted the talent pool with likes of Steve Webb, Danny Alexander and Norman Lamb just getting on doing the work.
    In return for which, they got shafted at the next election, of course.
    Of course. The Tories have no gratitude. Nor foresight. Which is why they are suffering now with this shabby gang of incompetents and scoundrels.
    Funny, I thought they got shafted by the electorate rather than the Tories because they had shafted their own supporters whilst failing to appeal to any new ones.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,317
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
    The UK can kiss its wealth creators goodbye. The young and entrepreneurial minded will leave to start businesses elsewhere. They will catch a few people with money on their way out (although accounting tricks will be used to minimise the bill) and existing entrepreneurs will re-base elsewhere for their next venture.

    We need to be encouraging wealth creators and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and make money, providing jobs and growing the economy. Instead we get 1000 boat people a day. Very few of which I imagine are wealth creators...
    We don’t get 1000 boat people a day. Most days we get zero.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,222

    This thread (which I agree with entirely) highlights exactly why the membership should have no say in the election of party leaders.

    The party leader in modern parties has to have the confidence and support of the MPs. Once they are elected almost nothing else matters in terms of their leadership. The only people who can remove a leader are the MPs and the MPs will use this to dictate how the leader acts in either opposition or in Government.

    But worse than that, the threat of a membership vote at the end warps the leadership campaign. It all becomes about getting into the members vote rather than securing majority support amongst the MPs. As has already been pointed out, a candidate only needs the consistent support of 1/3rd of the party's MPs to get into the membership ballot. This encourages them to apeal to smaller, powerful cliques rather than seeking a broadr spectrum support of the majority of party MPs.

    It is a stupid system which encourages extremism and it is no surprise to me that the Tories have become far more fractious and divided since this system was introduced.

    Would you do the election by MPs alone, or use an electoral college a bit like Labour's?

    In Ireland Fine Gael use an electoral college with the TDs/Senators/MEPs section worth 65%, members 25% and local councillors 10%. So a strong vote from the Parliamentary party will be decisive, but if it's evenly split the members vote comes in to play.
    Not sure. I would have to think about it. But in the end what matters is making sure that the elected leader has the clear support of the majority of their MPs. Something that is by no means certain in the current system.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,601

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    I suspect Starmer sacked Gray from her previous role, given she's been moved to a new role. It was probably a discussion on the lines of "This is not working out. What do you want to do about it?"
    When she was first hired we were told that she would enable Starmer to hit the ground running with lots of well-planned legislation in his first 100 days in office. To say that it didn't work out is a bit of an understatement.
    All is well

    https://youtu.be/zDAmPIq29ro?si=gw85PL-1LbJPaXFb
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,239
    Taz said:

    biggles said:

    Taz said:

    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    When I look at this govt they truly exude professionalism. Well done Sue.
    It’s all about percentage improvement on what came before…
    So the other lot were shit, so this lot being slightly less shit but still shit makes it okay !
    No shit!!
  • ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 72

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
    The UK can kiss its wealth creators goodbye. The young and entrepreneurial minded will leave to start businesses elsewhere. They will catch a few people with money on their way out (although accounting tricks will be used to minimise the bill) and existing entrepreneurs will re-base elsewhere for their next venture.

    We need to be encouraging wealth creators and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and make money, providing jobs and growing the economy. Instead we get 1000 boat people a day. Very few of which I imagine are wealth creators...
    We don’t get 1000 boat people a day. Most days we get zero.
    It's not 350 Million, its only 290...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,644
    edited 2:13PM

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    I suspect Starmer sacked Gray from her previous role, given she's been moved to a new role. It was probably a discussion on the lines of "This is not working out. What do you want to do about it?"
    When she was first hired we were told that she would enable Starmer to hit the ground running with lots of well-planned legislation in his first 100 days in office. To say that it didn't work out is a bit of an understatement.
    Instead we ended up with billions paid to the unions and the UK having to pay to dispose of its own territory.

    Perhaps her appointment was simply a quid pro quo for the report on Johnson.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,598
    On cycling:

    On Friday I saw a pepparami-in-lycra (with tribars/aerobars, so a keen rider) do an absolutely dickhead overtake on a car that could have ended up very poorly for him, and would have if an oncoming driver had not braked. It was in a 20MPH zone, so hopefully would not have been too serious, but even so.

    Incidentally, this was about a hundred metres down the road from where I saw a cyclist crash into the back of a bus last year. fortunately he was okay, but I hope he learnt not to draught too closely... :)

    Now I'm racing a bit on my bike, I like looking at the mistakes other cyclists make so I can try to learn from them. In this case, don't try to overtake cars on bendy local roads when there is lots of traffic coming in the other direction; and especially, don't stray into the other lane...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,644

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
    The UK can kiss its wealth creators goodbye. The young and entrepreneurial minded will leave to start businesses elsewhere. They will catch a few people with money on their way out (although accounting tricks will be used to minimise the bill) and existing entrepreneurs will re-base elsewhere for their next venture.

    We need to be encouraging wealth creators and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and make money, providing jobs and growing the economy. Instead we get 1000 boat people a day. Very few of which I imagine are wealth creators...
    We don’t get 1000 boat people a day. Most days we get zero.
    It's not 350 Million, its only 290...
    Indeed, “most days we get zero” but still end up with tens of thousands per year.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,667

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
    The UK can kiss its wealth creators goodbye. The young and entrepreneurial minded will leave to start businesses elsewhere. They will catch a few people with money on their way out (although accounting tricks will be used to minimise the bill) and existing entrepreneurs will re-base elsewhere for their next venture.

    We need to be encouraging wealth creators and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and make money, providing jobs and growing the economy. Instead we get 1000 boat people a day. Very few of which I imagine are wealth creators...
    We don’t get 1000 boat people a day. Most days we get zero.
    It's not 350 Million, its only 290...
    However, whatever it is that happens during the week works. It needs a hefty push from the traffickers (or everyone going home for the weekend) to make it fall over. Take what works and tighten it and strengthen it, so the failures go from once a week to once a month. Eventually, the game stops being worth the candle.

    That makes the problem sound a lot more solvable than it has in the recent past.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,317
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    I suspect Starmer sacked Gray from her previous role, given she's been moved to a new role. It was probably a discussion on the lines of "This is not working out. What do you want to do about it?"
    When she was first hired we were told that she would enable Starmer to hit the ground running with lots of well-planned legislation in his first 100 days in office. To say that it didn't work out is a bit of an understatement.
    Instead we ended up with billions paid to the unions and the UK having to pay to dispose of its own territory.

    Perhaps her appointment was simply a quid pro quo for the report on Johnson.
    Her report on Partygate was finished before she was talking to Labour. When she was appointed to do the report, Conservatives welcomed the choice of her. Her report was, if anything, overly favourable to the Tories, choosing to side step several inconvenient angles.

    Her Partygate report was bad for the Tories because Johnson had been a poor leader, allowed far too much social mixing in No. 10 and then lied about it.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,697
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
    The UK can kiss its wealth creators goodbye. The young and entrepreneurial minded will leave to start businesses elsewhere. They will catch a few people with money on their way out (although accounting tricks will be used to minimise the bill) and existing entrepreneurs will re-base elsewhere for their next venture.

    We need to be encouraging wealth creators and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and make money, providing jobs and growing the economy. Instead we get 1000 boat people a day. Very few of which I imagine are wealth creators...
    Immigrants tend to be those who get up off their arses rather than staying put. I'd be very surprised if they weren't more entrepreneurial on average than those who sit on their sofas and moan about the state of the world
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,691

    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    So much for CIvil Service neutrality.
    I think that went out of the window when Case fired her for daring to tell him he was a useless drunken knob.
  • ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 72
    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
    The UK can kiss its wealth creators goodbye. The young and entrepreneurial minded will leave to start businesses elsewhere. They will catch a few people with money on their way out (although accounting tricks will be used to minimise the bill) and existing entrepreneurs will re-base elsewhere for their next venture.

    We need to be encouraging wealth creators and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and make money, providing jobs and growing the economy. Instead we get 1000 boat people a day. Very few of which I imagine are wealth creators...
    Immigrants tend to be those who get up off their arses rather than staying put. I'd be very surprised if they weren't more entrepreneurial on average than those who sit on their sofas and moan about the state of the world
    Used to be the case, now the OBR predicts that the current wave of lower skilled migrants will cost the tax-payer £150,000 each net before retirement age. https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/young-low-paid-migrants-cost-uk-more-than-they-pay-in-taxes-252gxprv6
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,694

    Leon said:

    Just been to the utterly exquisite 700 year old Serbian Orthodox monastery of Gracanice. In the ethnically Serbian town of Gracanice.

    The church is like a lofty Egyptian temple, the interior inexplicably decorated by Gustav Klimt at his most glittering. Outside, Serb flags fly in the drizzly breeze. Cars drive through waving Albanian flags, hooting horns, taunting them: We won. This is Albanian now



    That war is not done. It will kick off again

    I didn't make it to Gracanice, I was planning to as they have some Roman remains just outside town but the timings didn't work and I had to go to Peja. Which was a bit too boring, apart from the Orthodox Patriarchate. Everyone says don't spend too long in Pristina but it has a certain rough-wedged charm and there's a few things you can do just outside town.

    In Rahovec I saw burned out and abandoned houses formally lived in by Serbs, and everywhere you go there are armed police by churches (and I would guess mosques in Serbian areas)

    Kosovo is an odd place, it is more observant-Muslim than Albania, ie people do actually go to the mosque and you get woken up by the call to prayer if you are anywhere near the old town. I realised when I got to Macedonia that I hadn't eaten pork in a week. Yet they still seem to have Sunday closing and Sunday bus timetables can be very reduced.

    The people are friendly though, the food is good, they make a mean macchiato and there is no block to drinking.
    Interesting. Ta

    I’m now in Mitrovice which - I was told - is really dramatic. A divided town with a bridge no one goes down, guarded by Italian KFOR troops nervously watching the locals. One side is Serbian and Christian. And the other is Albanian and Muslim

    Well it’s still divided and the Italian Carabinieri are still here and the bridge is still blocked to traffic. But otherwise there is a distinct lack of tension. People stroll over the bridge quite happily

    Hmm. Quite a pretty town tho. On the rivers by the mountains. The Muslim side looks happier and significantly more prosperous than the rundown Christian side

    I guess a lot of Serbs have simply left
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,026

    On cycling:

    On Friday I saw a pepparami-in-lycra (with tribars/aerobars, so a keen rider) do an absolutely dickhead overtake on a car that could have ended up very poorly for him, and would have if an oncoming driver had not braked. It was in a 20MPH zone, so hopefully would not have been too serious, but even so.

    Incidentally, this was about a hundred metres down the road from where I saw a cyclist crash into the back of a bus last year. fortunately he was okay, but I hope he learnt not to draught too closely... :)

    Now I'm racing a bit on my bike, I like looking at the mistakes other cyclists make so I can try to learn from them. In this case, don't try to overtake cars on bendy local roads when there is lots of traffic coming in the other direction; and especially, don't stray into the other lane...

    That's the benefit of 20mph limits, I suppose. Mistakes like that don't end in fatalities.

    Filtering through busy urban traffic is a refined art, particularly if there are large vehicles involved. You have to read each situation individually.

    I always keep in mind the case of Emma Burke Newman in Glasgow, who filtered into the ASL (bike box) as advised in the HWC, but was killed by a lorry driver who intruded into the ASL and didn't notice her.

    The police stated that she had placed herself in a vulnerable position. Worth reading the sentencing notes - disqualified for 12 months: https://judiciary.scot/home/sentences-judgments/sentences-and-opinions/2024/03/21/hma-v-paul-mowat
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,272
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Nearly 1000 migrants crossed the Channel in small boats on Saturday, the highest number this year.

    A total of 973 migrants in 17 boats reached the UK, beating the previous record for 2024 – which was 882 people on 18 June.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/06/1000-migrants-crossed-channel-breaking-record/

    Did you or Casino see the various posts earlier?

    There is a weekly pattern with crossings peaking at the weekend. Before Friday the previous 6 days only had one boat crossing.

    Numbers remain high by historical measures but are down on 2023, 2022 and (in the last month) 2021. And have gone from running way ahead of 2023 year to date up to 4 July to comfortably behind year to date now.

    I doubt any of that is thanks to some amazing new Labour policy, but perspective vs the last few years of Tory rule is important.
    Yet, strangely, these year on year reductions got given no credit by Labour during the election campaign, when the idea was to batter Rishi on the topic.

    So fuck it.
    Up to the election we were running well ahead of last year. We’ve clawed it back since.
    Absolute bollocks.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,716
    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
    The UK can kiss its wealth creators goodbye. The young and entrepreneurial minded will leave to start businesses elsewhere. They will catch a few people with money on their way out (although accounting tricks will be used to minimise the bill) and existing entrepreneurs will re-base elsewhere for their next venture.

    We need to be encouraging wealth creators and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and make money, providing jobs and growing the economy. Instead we get 1000 boat people a day. Very few of which I imagine are wealth creators...
    Immigrants tend to be those who get up off their arses rather than staying put. I'd be very surprised if they weren't more entrepreneurial on average than those who sit on their sofas and moan about the state of the world
    If you believe that, I have a choice selection of lovely bridges I'd like to sell you.

    The Home Office spends £3bn a year on accommodation and processing costs for asylum seekers.

    My guess is that not many of the 1,000 who arrived today will go on to become the next startup founder paying millions in CGT. Rather more likely that they will be put up in accommodation at the taxpayer's expense for many years, before finally gaining the right to work, where they will end up at the bottom end of the market, depressing wages and opportunities for people born here or who came here legally, while also earning so little they are a drain on our public services like schools and education.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,034
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Sue Gray is out.

    My word, is she? I thought she'd just quit her job!
    Now in charge of a table and chairs, 167K for that is not bad.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,019
    edited 2:30PM

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    I suspect Starmer sacked Gray from her previous role, given she's been moved to a new role. It was probably a discussion on the lines of "This is not working out. What do you want to do about it?"
    When she was first hired we were told that she would enable Starmer to hit the ground running with lots of well-planned legislation in his first 100 days in office. To say that it didn't work out is a bit of an understatement.
    I think most of the new Labour government's problems are accounted for by very poor communications. Not the spectacles/freebies clusterfuck - no amount of comms can deal with that. But the other stuff is largely. Not spin. The government needs a public with no fixed view on the issues to give them a hearing, so the public can understand why the government is doing what it's doing whether they agree with them or not. In a political context where many commentators naturally have an agenda. I think Starmer is surprisingly naive about this.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,644

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    I suspect Starmer sacked Gray from her previous role, given she's been moved to a new role. It was probably a discussion on the lines of "This is not working out. What do you want to do about it?"
    When she was first hired we were told that she would enable Starmer to hit the ground running with lots of well-planned legislation in his first 100 days in office. To say that it didn't work out is a bit of an understatement.
    Instead we ended up with billions paid to the unions and the UK having to pay to dispose of its own territory.

    Perhaps her appointment was simply a quid pro quo for the report on Johnson.
    Her report on Partygate was finished before she was talking to Labour. When she was appointed to do the report, Conservatives welcomed the choice of her. Her report was, if anything, overly favourable to the Tories, choosing to side step several inconvenient angles.

    Her Partygate report was bad for the Tories because Johnson had been a poor leader, allowed far too much social mixing in No. 10 and then lied about it.
    Well her appointment can’t have been based on her abilities, given what has happened over the last three months. And even if there was no causal link between the two, it looks terrible.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,272
    The spinning by the likes of @TimS and @Foxy is as desperate as it is pathetic.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,034
    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
    The UK can kiss its wealth creators goodbye. The young and entrepreneurial minded will leave to start businesses elsewhere. They will catch a few people with money on their way out (although accounting tricks will be used to minimise the bill) and existing entrepreneurs will re-base elsewhere for their next venture.

    We need to be encouraging wealth creators and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and make money, providing jobs and growing the economy. Instead we get 1000 boat people a day. Very few of which I imagine are wealth creators...
    Immigrants tend to be those who get up off their arses rather than staying put. I'd be very surprised if they weren't more entrepreneurial on average than those who sit on their sofas and moan about the state of the world
    Chris you are a deluded halfwit , we are just importing crooks and spongers. we will have 3rd world status soon.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,644
    .
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Sue Gray is out.

    My word, is she? I thought she'd just quit her job!
    Now in charge of a table and chairs, 167K for that is not bad.
    I wonder what her severance package will be, and her residual pensions benefits.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,034

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    I suspect Starmer sacked Gray from her previous role, given she's been moved to a new role. It was probably a discussion on the lines of "This is not working out. What do you want to do about it?"
    When she was first hired we were told that she would enable Starmer to hit the ground running with lots of well-planned legislation in his first 100 days in office. To say that it didn't work out is a bit of an understatement.
    Instead we ended up with billions paid to the unions and the UK having to pay to dispose of its own territory.

    Perhaps her appointment was simply a quid pro quo for the report on Johnson.
    Her report on Partygate was finished before she was talking to Labour. When she was appointed to do the report, Conservatives welcomed the choice of her. Her report was, if anything, overly favourable to the Tories, choosing to side step several inconvenient angles.

    Her Partygate report was bad for the Tories because Johnson had been a poor leader, allowed far too much social mixing in No. 10 and then lied about it.
    "Her report on Partygate was finished before she was talking to Labour."

    The thing is, I don't believe that. Especially when she got almost immediately got hired by Labour, and her son became a Labour candidate.

    It stinks. And Labour has form for this, with the Shami sham report and her totally coincidental placement into the HoL afterwards.

    (And much of the damage was done not just by the report, but by the leaks around it and the investigation.)

    She was fucking stupid to accept the job with Labour. She has absolutely burned her reputation for 'impartiality', and damaged the civil service in the process. Still, her son's still on the gravytrain though, and I see she's got another highly-paid non-job. Kerching!
    yes, not done her bank book any harm at all and her son into troughing and leg up greasy pole right away.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,026
    edited 2:34PM
    kyf_100 said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
    The UK can kiss its wealth creators goodbye. The young and entrepreneurial minded will leave to start businesses elsewhere. They will catch a few people with money on their way out (although accounting tricks will be used to minimise the bill) and existing entrepreneurs will re-base elsewhere for their next venture.

    We need to be encouraging wealth creators and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and make money, providing jobs and growing the economy. Instead we get 1000 boat people a day. Very few of which I imagine are wealth creators...
    Immigrants tend to be those who get up off their arses rather than staying put. I'd be very surprised if they weren't more entrepreneurial on average than those who sit on their sofas and moan about the state of the world
    If you believe that, I have a choice selection of lovely bridges I'd like to sell you.

    The Home Office spends £3bn a year on accommodation and processing costs for asylum seekers.

    My guess is that not many of the 1,000 who arrived today will go on to become the next startup founder paying millions in CGT. Rather more likely that they will be put up in accommodation at the taxpayer's expense for many years, before finally gaining the right to work, where they will end up at the bottom end of the market, depressing wages and opportunities for people born here or who came here legally, while also earning so little they are a drain on our public services like schools and education.
    That's asylum seekers, not all immigrants. And the fact we prevent them from working does not help with their contribution to the economy.

    Remember that the vast majority of immigrants come here legally and under work and student visa requirements put in the place by the last government. By virtue of their age profile, they are much more likely to be education or work than those already here.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,903
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    I suspect Starmer sacked Gray from her previous role, given she's been moved to a new role. It was probably a discussion on the lines of "This is not working out. What do you want to do about it?"
    When she was first hired we were told that she would enable Starmer to hit the ground running with lots of well-planned legislation in his first 100 days in office. To say that it didn't work out is a bit of an understatement.
    I think most of the new Labour government's problems are accounted for by very poor communications. Not the spectacles/freebies clusterfuck - no amount of comms can deal with that. But the other stuff is largely. Not spin. The government needs a public with no fixed view on the issues to give them a hearing, so the public can understand why the government is doing what it's doing whether they agree with them or not. In a political context where many commentators naturally have an agenda. I think Starmer is surprisingly naive about this.
    Not sure the government is selling £22 billion spent on carbon capture, no matter how good the comms tream.

    And as for granny dying of hyperthermia to pay for it, your comms team would rather resign en masse than try to sell that.

    What we have is the New Coke of governments. "This is going to be so much better than what went before!"

    Is it shite...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,223
    Really not going well for Labour is it. How long until Mandelson is brought in to clear up the mess?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,034
    RobD said:

    .

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Sue Gray is out.

    My word, is she? I thought she'd just quit her job!
    Now in charge of a table and chairs, 167K for that is not bad.
    I wonder what her severance package will be, and her residual pensions benefits.
    she will just slot into the non job on 167K, WTF is envoy to the nations. She going to visit Wales and Scotland now and again. These clowns make the last lot of Tories look like amateurs.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,223

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    I suspect Starmer sacked Gray from her previous role, given she's been moved to a new role. It was probably a discussion on the lines of "This is not working out. What do you want to do about it?"
    When she was first hired we were told that she would enable Starmer to hit the ground running with lots of well-planned legislation in his first 100 days in office. To say that it didn't work out is a bit of an understatement.
    I think most of the new Labour government's problems are accounted for by very poor communications. Not the spectacles/freebies clusterfuck - no amount of comms can deal with that. But the other stuff is largely. Not spin. The government needs a public with no fixed view on the issues to give them a hearing, so the public can understand why the government is doing what it's doing whether they agree with them or not. In a political context where many commentators naturally have an agenda. I think Starmer is surprisingly naive about this.
    Not sure the government is selling £22 billion spent on carbon capture, no matter how good the comms tream.

    And as for granny dying of hyperthermia to pay for it, your comms team would rather resign en masse than try to sell that.

    What we have is the New Coke of governments. "This is going to be so much better than what went before!"

    Is it shite...
    There's also a bit of poor synergy for Labour talking about a £22bn public finance gap and then at the same time announcing a £22bn scheme elsewhere. I realise they aren't related and one £22bn is an ongoing spend and the other £22bn is a one off investment but it looks bad.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,644
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    .

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Sue Gray is out.

    My word, is she? I thought she'd just quit her job!
    Now in charge of a table and chairs, 167K for that is not bad.
    I wonder what her severance package will be, and her residual pensions benefits.
    she will just slot into the non job on 167K, WTF is envoy to the nations. She going to visit Wales and Scotland now and again. These clowns make the last lot of Tories look like amateurs.
    Vicereine of Scotland. You’ll have to kiss her boots when she comes north of the border.
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,749

    Taz said:

    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    When I look at this govt they truly exude professionalism. Well done Sue.
    You cannot be serious. The first few months has been a clusterfuck of stupidity. Mandleson has to feature somewhere.....
    I’m not, I’m just responding to a post claiming she’s professionalised labour.
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,749

    Taz said:

    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    When I look at this govt they truly exude professionalism. Well done Sue.
    You cannot be serious. The first few months has been a clusterfuck of stupidity. Mandleson has to feature somewhere.....
    I’m not, I’m just responding to a post claiming she’s professionalised labour.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,697
    malcolmg said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
    The UK can kiss its wealth creators goodbye. The young and entrepreneurial minded will leave to start businesses elsewhere. They will catch a few people with money on their way out (although accounting tricks will be used to minimise the bill) and existing entrepreneurs will re-base elsewhere for their next venture.

    We need to be encouraging wealth creators and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and make money, providing jobs and growing the economy. Instead we get 1000 boat people a day. Very few of which I imagine are wealth creators...
    Immigrants tend to be those who get up off their arses rather than staying put. I'd be very surprised if they weren't more entrepreneurial on average than those who sit on their sofas and moan about the state of the world
    Chris you are a deluded halfwit ...
    Precisely the calibre of analysis that I've come to expect from PB Tories.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,903
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    Sue Gray is late sixties and successfully manoeuvred her son into Parliament, helped change the Government and professionalise Labour, and helped take down Boris to pave the road. Maybe she just decided she doesn’t fancy being the story and has done enough, and has just said “#### it I’m off”.

    I suspect Starmer sacked Gray from her previous role, given she's been moved to a new role. It was probably a discussion on the lines of "This is not working out. What do you want to do about it?"
    When she was first hired we were told that she would enable Starmer to hit the ground running with lots of well-planned legislation in his first 100 days in office. To say that it didn't work out is a bit of an understatement.
    I think most of the new Labour government's problems are accounted for by very poor communications. Not the spectacles/freebies clusterfuck - no amount of comms can deal with that. But the other stuff is largely. Not spin. The government needs a public with no fixed view on the issues to give them a hearing, so the public can understand why the government is doing what it's doing whether they agree with them or not. In a political context where many commentators naturally have an agenda. I think Starmer is surprisingly naive about this.
    Not sure the government is selling £22 billion spent on carbon capture, no matter how good the comms tream.

    And as for granny dying of hyperthermia to pay for it, your comms team would rather resign en masse than try to sell that.

    What we have is the New Coke of governments. "This is going to be so much better than what went before!"

    Is it shite...
    There's also a bit of poor synergy for Labour talking about a £22bn public finance gap and then at the same time announcing a £22bn scheme elsewhere. I realise they aren't related and one £22bn is an ongoing spend and the other £22bn is a one off investment but it looks bad.
    A very unfortunate coincidence.

    Unless it wasn't. And dark forces are at work within Labour.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,694
    MaxPB said:

    Really not going well for Labour is it. How long until Mandelson is brought in to clear up the mess?

    This is not a “mess that can be sorted”

    This is systemic. This is a government with no clues and no ideas, led by a man with no political experience and zero charm. And even less self awareness. Plus they have no money and no understanding of money

    You can’t fix all that. This government will continue to go from blunder to blunder. This is not simply poor communications
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,667

    The spinning by the likes of @TimS and @Foxy is as desperate as it is pathetic.

    Why?

    The numbers are the numbers. They're not meaningfully worse than last year, and possibly slightly better.

    https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/channel-crossings-tracker
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,221
    edited 2:46PM

    The spinning by the likes of @TimS and @Foxy is as desperate as it is pathetic.

    The stats are all available here for you to peruse to your hearts content. .

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats

    You’re welcome to post some alternative facts, but the official ones show a run rate ahead of 2023 in the year to 4 July, and behind 2024 since.

    That doesn’t mean boat crossings have gone away as a problem. But it does rather make “Starmer has lost control” narratives look a bit like…spinning.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,125
    Chris said:

    malcolmg said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
    The UK can kiss its wealth creators goodbye. The young and entrepreneurial minded will leave to start businesses elsewhere. They will catch a few people with money on their way out (although accounting tricks will be used to minimise the bill) and existing entrepreneurs will re-base elsewhere for their next venture.

    We need to be encouraging wealth creators and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and make money, providing jobs and growing the economy. Instead we get 1000 boat people a day. Very few of which I imagine are wealth creators...
    Immigrants tend to be those who get up off their arses rather than staying put. I'd be very surprised if they weren't more entrepreneurial on average than those who sit on their sofas and moan about the state of the world
    Chris you are a deluded halfwit ...
    Precisely the calibre of analysis that I've come to expect from PB Tories.
    Haha - if malc qualifies as a pbTory we all do!
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,716

    The spinning by the likes of @TimS and @Foxy is as desperate as it is pathetic.

    Why?

    The numbers are the numbers. They're not meaningfully worse than last year, and possibly slightly better.

    https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/channel-crossings-tracker
    So we've imported enough illegal migrants to fill a city the size of Exeter since 2018, and you're telling us there's not a problem...

    All of them wealth creators, I presume.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,221

    The spinning by the likes of @TimS and @Foxy is as desperate as it is pathetic.

    Why?

    The numbers are the numbers. They're not meaningfully worse than last year, and possibly slightly better.

    https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/channel-crossings-tracker
    The psychology is understandable though. It’s like discussion of violent crime stats.

    1. “Violent crime is out of control”
    2. “It’s actually a bit down on a decade ago”
    3. “Stop claiming violent crime isn’t a problem”
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,691
    Cookie said:

    Chris said:

    malcolmg said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
    The UK can kiss its wealth creators goodbye. The young and entrepreneurial minded will leave to start businesses elsewhere. They will catch a few people with money on their way out (although accounting tricks will be used to minimise the bill) and existing entrepreneurs will re-base elsewhere for their next venture.

    We need to be encouraging wealth creators and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and make money, providing jobs and growing the economy. Instead we get 1000 boat people a day. Very few of which I imagine are wealth creators...
    Immigrants tend to be those who get up off their arses rather than staying put. I'd be very surprised if they weren't more entrepreneurial on average than those who sit on their sofas and moan about the state of the world
    Chris you are a deluded halfwit ...
    Precisely the calibre of analysis that I've come to expect from PB Tories.
    Haha - if malc qualifies as a pbTory we all do!
    Especially BJO.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,221
    kyf_100 said:

    The spinning by the likes of @TimS and @Foxy is as desperate as it is pathetic.

    Why?

    The numbers are the numbers. They're not meaningfully worse than last year, and possibly slightly better.

    https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/channel-crossings-tracker
    So we've imported enough illegal migrants to fill a city the size of Exeter since 2018, and you're telling us there's not a problem...

    All of them wealth creators, I presume.
    And like magic, you’ve just QEDd my last post!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,728
    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
    The UK can kiss its wealth creators goodbye. The young and entrepreneurial minded will leave to start businesses elsewhere. They will catch a few people with money on their way out (although accounting tricks will be used to minimise the bill) and existing entrepreneurs will re-base elsewhere for their next venture.

    We need to be encouraging wealth creators and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and make money, providing jobs and growing the economy. Instead we get 1000 boat people a day. Very few of which I imagine are wealth creators...
    Immigrants tend to be those who get up off their arses rather than staying put. I'd be very surprised if they weren't more entrepreneurial on average than those who sit on their sofas and moan about the state of the world
    An implicitly sexist remark.

    image
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,026

    The spinning by the likes of @TimS and @Foxy is as desperate as it is pathetic.

    Why?

    The numbers are the numbers. They're not meaningfully worse than last year, and possibly slightly better.

    https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/channel-crossings-tracker
    Neck and neck with 2023. If it drops below the '23 number by the end of the year they're fine.

    The really interesting thing is where they are coming from - look at the massive spike in Albanians in 2022. Now Afghanistan, which is our own making in many respects.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,221
    And for the sake of balance let me present the left wing version:

    “This government has presided over galloping inequality”
    “Actually, our Gini coefficient has improved in recent years”
    “Why are you so callous and out of touch?”
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,697
    edited 2:56PM

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
    The UK can kiss its wealth creators goodbye. The young and entrepreneurial minded will leave to start businesses elsewhere. They will catch a few people with money on their way out (although accounting tricks will be used to minimise the bill) and existing entrepreneurs will re-base elsewhere for their next venture.

    We need to be encouraging wealth creators and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and make money, providing jobs and growing the economy. Instead we get 1000 boat people a day. Very few of which I imagine are wealth creators...
    Immigrants tend to be those who get up off their arses rather than staying put. I'd be very surprised if they weren't more entrepreneurial on average than those who sit on their sofas and moan about the state of the world
    Used to be the case, now the OBR predicts that the current wave of lower skilled migrants will cost the tax-payer £150,000 each net before retirement age. https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/young-low-paid-migrants-cost-uk-more-than-they-pay-in-taxes-252gxprv6
    In fact that's not a calculation for the "current wave of migrants". It's a calculation for an "illustrative" migrant on low wages. In fact the great majoirty of the "current wave of migrants" are legal immigrants, not boat people at all.

    It's a shame that former supporters of the former Tory government haven't yet kicked the habit of parroting their xenophobic failed electoral gimmick.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,667
    kyf_100 said:

    The spinning by the likes of @TimS and @Foxy is as desperate as it is pathetic.

    Why?

    The numbers are the numbers. They're not meaningfully worse than last year, and possibly slightly better.

    https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/channel-crossings-tracker
    So we've imported enough illegal migrants to fill a city the size of Exeter since 2018, and you're telling us there's not a problem...

    All of them wealth creators, I presume.
    Nope. Not saying that at all.

    But whatever has happened since July seems no less effective (and probably a bit more so) than what was happening previously.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,026

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
    The UK can kiss its wealth creators goodbye. The young and entrepreneurial minded will leave to start businesses elsewhere. They will catch a few people with money on their way out (although accounting tricks will be used to minimise the bill) and existing entrepreneurs will re-base elsewhere for their next venture.

    We need to be encouraging wealth creators and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and make money, providing jobs and growing the economy. Instead we get 1000 boat people a day. Very few of which I imagine are wealth creators...
    Immigrants tend to be those who get up off their arses rather than staying put. I'd be very surprised if they weren't more entrepreneurial on average than those who sit on their sofas and moan about the state of the world
    An implicitly sexist remark.

    image
    That's small boats migrants, not migrants in general.

    "Stop the boats" must be one of the more silly political strategies ever, highlighting your own failures on illegal immigration and deliberately conflating them with the massive legal migration that you were were responsible for. Of course Reform were going to do brilliantly.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,479
    RobD said:

    .

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Sue Gray is out.

    My word, is she? I thought she'd just quit her job!
    Now in charge of a table and chairs, 167K for that is not bad.
    I wonder what her severance package will be, and her residual pensions benefits.
    Not a civil servant. Would have been on some sort of Labour Party contract, I suspect with provision for early closure. Might not have been in it long enough to even qualify for a pension to go with it depending on the LP scheme.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,517
    edited 2:58PM
    MaxPB said:

    Really not going well for Labour is it. How long until Mandelson is brought in to clear up the mess?

    What is interesting, is the whispers were that Blair and Mandy were advising Starmer in the year running up the GE. Maybe he didn't listen to them, too busy listening to Taylor Swift tunes.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,221

    MaxPB said:

    Really not going well for Labour is it. How long until Mandelson is brought in to clear up the mess?

    What is interesting, is the whispers were that Blair and Mandy were advising Starmer in the year running up the GE. Maybe he didn't listen to them, too busy listening to Taylor Swift tunes.
    Or maybe Mandy has lost his touch. He is from another era.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,272
    TimS said:

    The spinning by the likes of @TimS and @Foxy is as desperate as it is pathetic.

    The stats are all available here for you to peruse to your hearts content. .

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats

    You’re welcome to post some alternative facts, but the official ones show a run rate ahead of 2023 in the year to 4 July, and behind 2024 since.

    That doesn’t mean boat crossings have gone away as a problem. But it does rather make “Starmer has lost control” narratives look a bit like…spinning.
    I've seen the stats. They don't show anything of the kind.

    Your thesis is that any reduction in boat crossings up until 4th July 2023 was nothing whatever to do with Sunak, and any reductions in crossings since (of which there have been precisely none) are down to the genius of Starmer.

    It's laughable.

    One of the first things Starmer did was junk Rwanda. The message has gone out far and wide that migrants are welcome here, and they've heard it and continue to come in droves.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,223
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Really not going well for Labour is it. How long until Mandelson is brought in to clear up the mess?

    This is not a “mess that can be sorted”

    This is systemic. This is a government with no clues and no ideas, led by a man with no political experience and zero charm. And even less self awareness. Plus they have no money and no understanding of money

    You can’t fix all that. This government will continue to go from blunder to blunder. This is not simply poor communications
    What I'm shocked by is how little homework Labour seems to have done in the run up to an election they've looked like winning ever since Truss became PM. They should have had a policy blitz ready from day one, public sector reforms and supporting think tank types to go and sell them and a much better answer on strikes and public sector pay than just giving in.

    All of the freebies have taken over the news cycle because they have nothing else going for them and the media have nothing to write about that might be vaguely positive.

    I don't think it's unsalvageable but they are getting to it eventually it will get there and Labour will end up going the way of a lot of centre left parties in Europe. Especially if we continue to get 900 illegals per day crossing the channel.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,272

    The spinning by the likes of @TimS and @Foxy is as desperate as it is pathetic.

    Why?

    The numbers are the numbers. They're not meaningfully worse than last year, and possibly slightly better.

    https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/channel-crossings-tracker
    Interesting how open you were to this argument before 4th July 2023.

    It's sheer naked partisanship by you @TimS and @Foxy - nothing more, nothing less.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,644
    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    .

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Sue Gray is out.

    My word, is she? I thought she'd just quit her job!
    Now in charge of a table and chairs, 167K for that is not bad.
    I wonder what her severance package will be, and her residual pensions benefits.
    Not a civil servant. Would have been on some sort of Labour Party contract, I suspect with provision for early closure. Might not have been in it long enough to even qualify for a pension to go with it depending on the LP scheme.
    Looks like it is a civil servant position, not a position of a political party.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downing_Street_Chief_of_Staff
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,517
    edited 3:01PM
    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Really not going well for Labour is it. How long until Mandelson is brought in to clear up the mess?

    What is interesting, is the whispers were that Blair and Mandy were advising Starmer in the year running up the GE. Maybe he didn't listen to them, too busy listening to Taylor Swift tunes.
    Or maybe Mandy has lost his touch. He is from another era.
    Some of the mistakes so far aren't ones Bad Al and Mandy would have made.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,221

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
    The UK can kiss its wealth creators goodbye. The young and entrepreneurial minded will leave to start businesses elsewhere. They will catch a few people with money on their way out (although accounting tricks will be used to minimise the bill) and existing entrepreneurs will re-base elsewhere for their next venture.

    We need to be encouraging wealth creators and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and make money, providing jobs and growing the economy. Instead we get 1000 boat people a day. Very few of which I imagine are wealth creators...
    Immigrants tend to be those who get up off their arses rather than staying put. I'd be very surprised if they weren't more entrepreneurial on average than those who sit on their sofas and moan about the state of the world
    An implicitly sexist remark.

    image
    Interestingly on legal migration the last government’s changes to dependents visas will have had the effect of skewing migration more towards men.

    Or, in MAGA terminology, “men of fighting age”.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,272
    The highest daily total this year:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89lqg90q38o
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,644

    The highest daily total this year:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89lqg90q38o

    I would like to have seen the counterfactual where the Rwanda scheme was actually implemented.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,221

    TimS said:

    The spinning by the likes of @TimS and @Foxy is as desperate as it is pathetic.

    The stats are all available here for you to peruse to your hearts content. .

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats

    You’re welcome to post some alternative facts, but the official ones show a run rate ahead of 2023 in the year to 4 July, and behind 2024 since.

    That doesn’t mean boat crossings have gone away as a problem. But it does rather make “Starmer has lost control” narratives look a bit like…spinning.
    I've seen the stats. They don't show anything of the kind.

    Your thesis is that any reduction in boat crossings up until 4th July 2023 was nothing whatever to do with Sunak, and any reductions in crossings since (of which there have been precisely none) are down to the genius of Starmer.

    It's laughable.

    One of the first things Starmer did was junk Rwanda. The message has gone out far and wide that migrants are welcome here, and they've heard it and continue to come in droves.
    Don’t be ridiculous. Read my first post on the subject, hours ago this morning, where I said: “it’s too early for this to be anything to do with the new government”. I think I also mentioned the Albania deal.

    I find the small boats phenomenon fascinating, and rather sad at times. I’m not so politically invested in it as some. In the long list of Tory failings it doesn’t even make the Vodafone Top 40. I do think the patterns of the last few years make for an interesting case study.

    It’s a shame the topic can’t be discussed dispassionately.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,221

    The spinning by the likes of @TimS and @Foxy is as desperate as it is pathetic.

    Why?

    The numbers are the numbers. They're not meaningfully worse than last year, and possibly slightly better.

    https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/channel-crossings-tracker
    Interesting how open you were to this argument before 4th July 2023.

    It's sheer naked partisanship by you @TimS and @Foxy - nothing more, nothing less.
    The famously Labour supporting TimS and Foxy.
  • ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 72
    edited 3:09PM
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    For those following the ongoing CGT saga, the IFS is now recommending not only an increase to CGT to income tax levels, but also an exit tax. Oh, and an end to the various reliefs that currently exist for entrepreneurs...

    https://www.ft.com/content/868ec421-f7c3-4136-b224-21859485b2f1

    As Sandpit has also said, I cannot think of a greater act of economic self harm than this. Sure, they may catch a few people if they go (though if implemented, I imagine it will be from April next year at the earliest as very likely to be challenged in court, leading to a stampede before then).

    Our economic prospects have got so good we want to stop you taking your money out… it’s that thing isn’t it with capital instead of labour. Communist societies have walls to keep people in, capitalist ones have them, to keep people out.
    The UK can kiss its wealth creators goodbye. The young and entrepreneurial minded will leave to start businesses elsewhere. They will catch a few people with money on their way out (although accounting tricks will be used to minimise the bill) and existing entrepreneurs will re-base elsewhere for their next venture.

    We need to be encouraging wealth creators and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and make money, providing jobs and growing the economy. Instead we get 1000 boat people a day. Very few of which I imagine are wealth creators...
    Immigrants tend to be those who get up off their arses rather than staying put. I'd be very surprised if they weren't more entrepreneurial on average than those who sit on their sofas and moan about the state of the world
    Used to be the case, now the OBR predicts that the current wave of lower skilled migrants will cost the tax-payer £150,000 each net before retirement age. https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/young-low-paid-migrants-cost-uk-more-than-they-pay-in-taxes-252gxprv6
    In fact that's not a calculation for the "current wave of migrants". It's a calculation for an "illustrative" migrant on low wages. In fact the great majoirty of the "current wave of migrants" are legal immigrants, not boat people at all.

    It's a shame that former supporters of the former Tory government haven't yet kicked the habit of parroting their xenophobic failed electoral gimmick.
    No need for abuse, I know you are on a sticky wicket and losing. Would be interesting if you could provide any evidence that the newer wave of immigration is anything other than low skilled.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,137
    Sue Grey leaving worries me, looks like the anonymous briefers have won. Does not speak of a happy #10 operation, and given they have just won an election, you'd have thought they would still be relatively happy with each other. A shakeup to the comms machine seems needed, something isn't quite working.

    What ultimately matters though is Starmer and Reeves delivering a good budget which sets the country back on the economic growth path. No amount of comms will fix another 5 years of decline.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,517
    edited 3:07PM
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Really not going well for Labour is it. How long until Mandelson is brought in to clear up the mess?

    This is not a “mess that can be sorted”

    This is systemic. This is a government with no clues and no ideas, led by a man with no political experience and zero charm. And even less self awareness. Plus they have no money and no understanding of money

    You can’t fix all that. This government will continue to go from blunder to blunder. This is not simply poor communications
    What I'm shocked by is how little homework Labour seems to have done in the run up to an election they've looked like winning ever since Truss became PM. They should have had a policy blitz ready from day one, public sector reforms and supporting think tank types to go and sell them and a much better answer on strikes and public sector pay than just giving in.

    All of the freebies have taken over the news cycle because they have nothing else going for them and the media have nothing to write about that might be vaguely positive.

    I don't think it's unsalvageable but they are getting to it eventually it will get there and Labour will end up going the way of a lot of centre left parties in Europe. Especially if we continue to get 900 illegals per day crossing the channel.
    It hasn't helped with the budget not being until end of October, after first week of announcements about reviews about reviews, a total vacuum only filled by things are terrible just wait until the punishment beating in October.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,479
    edited 3:08PM
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    .

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Sue Gray is out.

    My word, is she? I thought she'd just quit her job!
    Now in charge of a table and chairs, 167K for that is not bad.
    I wonder what her severance package will be, and her residual pensions benefits.
    Not a civil servant. Would have been on some sort of Labour Party contract, I suspect with provision for early closure. Might not have been in it long enough to even qualify for a pension to go with it depending on the LP scheme.
    Looks like it is a civil servant position, not a position of a political party.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downing_Street_Chief_of_Staff
    Sorry - of course I was thinking of her being contracted by SKS to the performative indignation of PBTories. Quite right. She's now moved back into the CS.

    Severance will be precisely £0 - she resigned.

    And pension will depend on which scheme she is on, which for a new contract would probably be on the newer schemes, and not be that much more because of time averaging over her previous work record. OTOH if she had already drawn her pension then her salary would be partly rebated because of that.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,598
    Eabhal said:

    On cycling:

    On Friday I saw a pepparami-in-lycra (with tribars/aerobars, so a keen rider) do an absolutely dickhead overtake on a car that could have ended up very poorly for him, and would have if an oncoming driver had not braked. It was in a 20MPH zone, so hopefully would not have been too serious, but even so.

    Incidentally, this was about a hundred metres down the road from where I saw a cyclist crash into the back of a bus last year. fortunately he was okay, but I hope he learnt not to draught too closely... :)

    Now I'm racing a bit on my bike, I like looking at the mistakes other cyclists make so I can try to learn from them. In this case, don't try to overtake cars on bendy local roads when there is lots of traffic coming in the other direction; and especially, don't stray into the other lane...

    That's the benefit of 20mph limits, I suppose. Mistakes like that don't end in fatalities.

    Filtering through busy urban traffic is a refined art, particularly if there are large vehicles involved. You have to read each situation individually.

    I always keep in mind the case of Emma Burke Newman in Glasgow, who filtered into the ASL (bike box) as advised in the HWC, but was killed by a lorry driver who intruded into the ASL and didn't notice her.

    The police stated that she had placed herself in a vulnerable position. Worth reading the sentencing notes - disqualified for 12 months: https://judiciary.scot/home/sentences-judgments/sentences-and-opinions/2024/03/21/hma-v-paul-mowat
    In the case I mention, if that driver had hit that cyclist, the cycling lobby would have been automagically blaming the driver of either the oncoming car, the car being overtaken, or both.

    In this case, the cyclist did a silly move; then, when it was obvious he had made a silly move, he did not back out, and instead continued on. This is a common feature of human nature: to compound mistakes. But he was probably in the blind spot of the driver he was overtaking (and had been for a good ten or fifteen seconds), and then veered into oncoming traffic.

    I can easily point to many cases where drivers do wrong. But cyclists are vulnerable, and it is up to us to realise, like all road users, that they do not own the road. And that they, like other road users, can make mistakes.

    I'm a firm believer in defensive driving. Cyclists should also believe in defensive riding. In far too many cases, they do not.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,517
    edited 3:10PM
    RobD said:

    .

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Sue Gray is out.

    My word, is she? I thought she'd just quit her job!
    Now in charge of a table and chairs, 167K for that is not bad.
    I wonder what her severance package will be, and her residual pensions benefits.
    They are going to get it in the neck if this new made up on the spot job still pays the £170k a year.
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