Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

What we think about Reform – politicalbetting.com

1246

Comments

  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,793
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Right now I'd vote for PM Farage over Galloway

    And Jenrick

    And Starmer

    Went to Essex hustings tonight with the Tory leadership candidates. Cleverly was affable as ever and wanted to reach out to the nation as a whole and see off Reform by being true to Conservative values not becoming Reform while projecting party unity too.

    Badenoch was sharper than I expected, thoughtful and emphasised the need for the party to sell itself again based on conservative values not just be managerial. Jackie Doyle Price was representing Tugendhat who had another engagement and made clear that the party couldn’t just speak to itself but needed to reach out to the whole country and those Tories who stayed home more than Reform.

    Jenrick was the most slick and polished, a strong speaker and orator and told a few jokes. My main fear is he could be Hague2, excellent at Question Time and his conference speech but maybe got the role too young. Jenrick was also the most rightwing, wanted to move away from Net Zero to protect our industrial base, wanted to leave the ECHR and deport immigrants etc. however he was saying some good things about building new homes for younger people too
    Thanks HYUFD. Have you made your mind up who you favour?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052
    mercator said:

    In "That buys a lot of newly-slimline suits" news,

    The Conservative leadership contender Robert Jenrick has accepted £75,000 in donations from an indebted company, which received an undisclosed lump sum from an untraceable BVI-listed entity.

    The Spott Fitness has no employees, has never made a profit, and its most recent accounts show it owes £332,000, raising questions about the ultimate source of the funds.


    https://www.tortoisemedia.com/2024/09/20/robert-jenricks-top-donor-received-loan-from-untraceable-bvi-firm/

    That's completely different. Surely you can see that?

    More seriously I am sure everyone is at it and I would not bet a penny against someone unearthing a Tory MP clothing donee (except statistics is on their side because there's so few of them). But to govern is to be the focus of attention.

    A lot of the point is we are looking at small scale administrative incompetence (if SKS had declared the stuff properly and on time we would know north about it) and big picture strategic incompetence (there's nothing to talk about during the interminable phoney war before October 30) as well as coordinated petty dishonesty (lady klouseau's knickers are not an office expense. It's striking that all the recipients made *exactly the same mistake* describing the donations. What are the odds?
    A lot of journalists are just looking through the Register of Interests. You can too! Here's Kemi Badenoch's entry: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmregmem/240804/badenoch_kemi.htm

    The Register of Members' Financial Interests
    As at 4 August 2024
    Badenoch, Mrs Kemi (North West Essex)

    2. (a) Support linked to an MP but received by a local party organisation or indirectly via a central party organisation

    Name of donor: Graham Edwards
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £12,000
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 29 July 2024)

    Name of donor: Charles Keymer
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £10,000
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 29 July 2024)

    Name of donor: Robert West
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £1,855
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 29 July 2024)

    2. (b) Any other support not included in Category 2(a)

    Name of donor: Shaya Raymond
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: Strategic advice and training, value £5,000
    Date received: 4 March 2024
    Date accepted: 4 March 2024
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 28 March 2024)

    Name of donor: Shaya Raymond
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: strategic advice and coaching, value £5,000
    Date received: 5 June 2024 to 25 June 2024
    Date accepted: 5 June 2024
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 31 July 2024)

    Name of donor: Neil Record
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £10,000 in support of my campaign for the leadership of the Conservative Party
    Date received: 8 July 2024
    Date accepted: 8 July 2024
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 31 July 2024)

    3. Gifts, benefits and hospitality from UK sources

    Name of donor: Global Media and Entertainment Ltd
    Address of donor: 30 Leicester Square, London WC2H 7LA
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: Four tickets with hospitality for the Jingle Bell Ball, value £800
    Date received: 9 December 2023
    Date accepted: 9 December 2023
    Donor status: company, registration 06251684

    (Registered 28 December 2023)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Right now I'd vote for PM Farage over Galloway

    And Jenrick

    And Starmer

    Went to Essex hustings tonight with the Tory leadership candidates. Cleverly was affable as ever and wanted to reach out to the nation as a whole and see off Reform by being true to Conservative values not becoming Reform while projecting party unity too.

    Badenoch was sharper than I expected, thoughtful and emphasised the need for the party to sell itself again based on conservative values not just be managerial. Jackie Doyle Price was representing Tugendhat who had another engagement and made clear that the party couldn’t just speak to itself but needed to reach out to the whole country and those Tories who stayed home more than Reform.

    Jenrick was the most slick and polished, a strong speaker and orator and told a few jokes. My main fear is he could be Hague2, excellent at Question Time and his conference speech but maybe got the role too young. Jenrick was also the most rightwing, wanted to move away from Net Zero to protect our industrial base, wanted to leave the ECHR and deport immigrants etc. however he was saying some good things about building new homes for younger people too
    Thanks HYUFD. Have you made your mind up who you favour?
    Yes, Tugendhat
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,793

    O/T

    Fuck-load of lightning strikes over southern England and eastern Wales today:

    https://www.lightningmaps.org/#google_vignette;m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=;ts=0;z=8;y=50.8765;x=-1.0109;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;ts24=1;

    Also O/T, but as you're around - I did the Ecclesbourne Valley Railway today. I'm not a heritage completist by any means but when they throw in a cream tea it's a very pleasant way to spend an hour or so.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986

    TimS said:

    Round 2:

    Chancellor McDonnell, or Chancellor Kwarteng?

    Kwateng working under Truss, or someone else?
    Good point. I’d probably go Kwarteng, if he could work under someone else.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052

    mercator said:

    In "That buys a lot of newly-slimline suits" news,

    The Conservative leadership contender Robert Jenrick has accepted £75,000 in donations from an indebted company, which received an undisclosed lump sum from an untraceable BVI-listed entity.

    The Spott Fitness has no employees, has never made a profit, and its most recent accounts show it owes £332,000, raising questions about the ultimate source of the funds.


    https://www.tortoisemedia.com/2024/09/20/robert-jenricks-top-donor-received-loan-from-untraceable-bvi-firm/

    That's completely different. Surely you can see that?

    More seriously I am sure everyone is at it and I would not bet a penny against someone unearthing a Tory MP clothing donee (except statistics is on their side because there's so few of them). But to govern is to be the focus of attention.

    A lot of the point is we are looking at small scale administrative incompetence (if SKS had declared the stuff properly and on time we would know north about it) and big picture strategic incompetence (there's nothing to talk about during the interminable phoney war before October 30) as well as coordinated petty dishonesty (lady klouseau's knickers are not an office expense. It's striking that all the recipients made *exactly the same mistake* describing the donations. What are the odds?
    A lot of journalists are just looking through the Register of Interests. You can too! Here's Kemi Badenoch's entry: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmregmem/240804/badenoch_kemi.htm

    The Register of Members' Financial Interests
    As at 4 August 2024
    Badenoch, Mrs Kemi (North West Essex)

    2. (a) Support linked to an MP but received by a local party organisation or indirectly via a central party organisation

    Name of donor: Graham Edwards
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £12,000
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 29 July 2024)

    Name of donor: Charles Keymer
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £10,000
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 29 July 2024)

    Name of donor: Robert West
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £1,855
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 29 July 2024)

    2. (b) Any other support not included in Category 2(a)

    Name of donor: Shaya Raymond
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: Strategic advice and training, value £5,000
    Date received: 4 March 2024
    Date accepted: 4 March 2024
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 28 March 2024)

    Name of donor: Shaya Raymond
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: strategic advice and coaching, value £5,000
    Date received: 5 June 2024 to 25 June 2024
    Date accepted: 5 June 2024
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 31 July 2024)

    Name of donor: Neil Record
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £10,000 in support of my campaign for the leadership of the Conservative Party
    Date received: 8 July 2024
    Date accepted: 8 July 2024
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 31 July 2024)

    3. Gifts, benefits and hospitality from UK sources

    Name of donor: Global Media and Entertainment Ltd
    Address of donor: 30 Leicester Square, London WC2H 7LA
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: Four tickets with hospitality for the Jingle Bell Ball, value £800
    Date received: 9 December 2023
    Date accepted: 9 December 2023
    Donor status: company, registration 06251684

    (Registered 28 December 2023)
    On the other hand, here's Cleverly's...

    Cleverly, Mr James (Braintree)
    Cleverly, Mr James (Braintree)

    8. Miscellaneous

    Officer in the Reserve Forces. I have received no payments since my election.

    (Registered 4 June 2016; updated 27 October 2016)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,589
    edited September 20
    As well as being a slumlord who thinks that rules are only for others to follow Ilford South Jas Athwal is involved with a nursery business with an interesting history of child safety failings and some curious tax dealings:

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jas-athwal-landlord-nurseries-safety-rules-3283320?srsltid=AfmBOopetDehTBECHxrSh6_ckpf_hPP3tL4ze_303oPYewkrKzzJ4pmh

    Speaking on his behalf, a Labour Party spokesperson confirmed the MP is a director of Village Day, but stated that he had not been a shareholder in the company since 2017, and that the filings at Companies House and in his House of Commons Register of Interests are incorrect.

    They confirmed his wife, through another company, is a significant shareholder of Village Day although like her husband she is not thought to have involvement in the day-to-day running of the nurseries.


    Clear as crystal isn't it.
  • HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Right now I'd vote for PM Farage over Galloway

    And Jenrick

    And Starmer

    Went to Essex hustings tonight with the Tory leadership candidates. Cleverly was affable as ever and wanted to reach out to the nation as a whole and see off Reform by being true to Conservative values not becoming Reform while projecting party unity too.

    Badenoch was sharper than I expected, thoughtful and emphasised the need for the party to sell itself again based on conservative values not just be managerial. Jackie Doyle Price was representing Tugendhat who had another engagement and made clear that the party couldn’t just speak to itself but needed to reach out to the whole country and those Tories who stayed home more than Reform.

    Jenrick was the most slick and polished, a strong speaker and orator and told a few jokes. My main fear is he could be Hague2, excellent at Question Time and his conference speech but maybe got the role too young. Jenrick was also the most rightwing, wanted to move away from Net Zero to protect our industrial base, wanted to leave the ECHR and deport immigrants etc. however he was saying some good things about building new homes for younger people too
    Interesting and Cleverly probably best choice and Jenrick worst
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Right now I'd vote for PM Farage over Galloway

    And Jenrick

    And Starmer

    Went to Essex hustings tonight with the Tory leadership candidates. Cleverly was affable as ever and wanted to reach out to the nation as a whole and see off Reform by being true to Conservative values not becoming Reform while projecting party unity too.

    Badenoch was sharper than I expected, thoughtful and emphasised the need for the party to sell itself again based on conservative values not just be managerial. Jackie Doyle Price was representing Tugendhat who had another engagement and made clear that the party couldn’t just speak to itself but needed to reach out to the whole country and those Tories who stayed home more than Reform.

    Jenrick was the most slick and polished, a strong speaker and orator and told a few jokes. My main fear is he could be Hague2, excellent at Question Time and his conference speech but maybe got the role too young. Jenrick was also the most rightwing, wanted to move away from Net Zero to protect our industrial base, wanted to leave the ECHR and deport immigrants etc. however he was saying some good things about building new homes for younger people too
    Thanks HYUFD. Have you made your mind up who you favour?
    Yes, Tugendhat
    Interesting. He just seems a bit bland to me.
    If I were a traditionalist Tory who didn’t fancy MAGA but still had a hankering after Thatcher and her ilk, I think I’d be going Cleverly.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052

    mercator said:

    In "That buys a lot of newly-slimline suits" news,

    The Conservative leadership contender Robert Jenrick has accepted £75,000 in donations from an indebted company, which received an undisclosed lump sum from an untraceable BVI-listed entity.

    The Spott Fitness has no employees, has never made a profit, and its most recent accounts show it owes £332,000, raising questions about the ultimate source of the funds.


    https://www.tortoisemedia.com/2024/09/20/robert-jenricks-top-donor-received-loan-from-untraceable-bvi-firm/

    That's completely different. Surely you can see that?

    More seriously I am sure everyone is at it and I would not bet a penny against someone unearthing a Tory MP clothing donee (except statistics is on their side because there's so few of them). But to govern is to be the focus of attention.

    A lot of the point is we are looking at small scale administrative incompetence (if SKS had declared the stuff properly and on time we would know north about it) and big picture strategic incompetence (there's nothing to talk about during the interminable phoney war before October 30) as well as coordinated petty dishonesty (lady klouseau's knickers are not an office expense. It's striking that all the recipients made *exactly the same mistake* describing the donations. What are the odds?
    A lot of journalists are just looking through the Register of Interests. You can too! Here's Kemi Badenoch's entry: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmregmem/240804/badenoch_kemi.htm

    The Register of Members' Financial Interests
    As at 4 August 2024
    Badenoch, Mrs Kemi (North West Essex)

    2. (a) Support linked to an MP but received by a local party organisation or indirectly via a central party organisation

    Name of donor: Graham Edwards
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £12,000
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 29 July 2024)

    Name of donor: Charles Keymer
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £10,000
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 29 July 2024)

    Name of donor: Robert West
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £1,855
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 29 July 2024)

    2. (b) Any other support not included in Category 2(a)

    Name of donor: Shaya Raymond
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: Strategic advice and training, value £5,000
    Date received: 4 March 2024
    Date accepted: 4 March 2024
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 28 March 2024)

    Name of donor: Shaya Raymond
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: strategic advice and coaching, value £5,000
    Date received: 5 June 2024 to 25 June 2024
    Date accepted: 5 June 2024
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 31 July 2024)

    Name of donor: Neil Record
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £10,000 in support of my campaign for the leadership of the Conservative Party
    Date received: 8 July 2024
    Date accepted: 8 July 2024
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 31 July 2024)

    3. Gifts, benefits and hospitality from UK sources

    Name of donor: Global Media and Entertainment Ltd
    Address of donor: 30 Leicester Square, London WC2H 7LA
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: Four tickets with hospitality for the Jingle Bell Ball, value £800
    Date received: 9 December 2023
    Date accepted: 9 December 2023
    Donor status: company, registration 06251684

    (Registered 28 December 2023)
    On the other hand, here's Cleverly's...

    Cleverly, Mr James (Braintree)
    Cleverly, Mr James (Braintree)

    8. Miscellaneous

    Officer in the Reserve Forces. I have received no payments since my election.

    (Registered 4 June 2016; updated 27 October 2016)
    Farage's includes the funniest entry...

    Name of donor: Mr Christopher Harborne
    Address of donor: private
    Estimate of the probable value (or amount of any donation): Flights and accommodation for me and one staffer, value £32,836
    Destination of visit: United States
    Dates of visit: 17 July 2024 to 19 July 2024
    Purpose of visit: To support a friend who was almost killed and to represent Clacton on the world stage.

    (Registered 4 August 2024)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just watched Nigel Farage's speech.

    Gotta say (and I know PB won't want to hear it) but with Kieth and Rachel trying to make the country more miserable by the day and the Tories not even on at pitch at the moment... It's increasingly looking like there's only one show in town - Farage/Reform.

    Farage always has been an excellent orator and ran rings round the EU

    However, he is hugely divisive and his closeness to Trump is his achillles heel
    Trump's about to become history (after which I suspect Nigel will move on pretty fast) And at election '29 Farage's divisiveness will be set against SKS and the Labour government and whatever becomes of the Tories.

    I'm not saying REF will win the next election but if Labour keep on as they are and if the Tories don't pull themselves together, the path to PM Farage is there, IMO.
    Farage couldn’t become PM alone, he would need Tory support
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206

    I am guessing the usual Starmer bashers have been all over this story?

    Wait, no?

    Robert Jenrick, who is the favourite to be the next Conservative party leader, received £75,000 from a firm which has no employees, has never made a profit and has £332,000 in debts after taking a loan from an untraceable British Virgin Islands company

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1837200185908142202

    I hope it scuppers his leadership bid

    You know you want his support to go to Kemi
    If the final two were Badenoch and Jenrick I’d likely vote for Badenoch, I absolutely will not be voting for Jenrick.

    The Dirty Desmond scandal should have disqualified from being an MP let alone leader.
    Happily it is not a choice I have to make but I am glad you share my view of Jenrick. I don't actually rate any of the contenders but Jenrick I actively despise.
    Which leads one to the unavoidable conclusion that approaching half of Tory MPs must be morons. They had five halfway plausible contenders and a sleazy dud. What is possessing them to make the sleazy dud their top choice? Even the Tory membership don't want him.

    FWIW I'm with the membership - by far their best hope is Kemi - she'll either implode, or supprise on the upside. The others will just tread water pointlessly, whilst their voters continue to drift away (mostly to Reform).
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Right now I'd vote for PM Farage over Galloway

    And Jenrick

    And Starmer

    Went to Essex hustings tonight with the Tory leadership candidates. Cleverly was affable as ever and wanted to reach out to the nation as a whole and see off Reform by being true to Conservative values not becoming Reform while projecting party unity too.

    Badenoch was sharper than I expected, thoughtful and emphasised the need for the party to sell itself again based on conservative values not just be managerial. Jackie Doyle Price was representing Tugendhat who had another engagement and made clear that the party couldn’t just speak to itself but needed to reach out to the whole country and those Tories who stayed home more than Reform.

    Jenrick was the most slick and polished, a strong speaker and orator and told a few jokes. My main fear is he could be Hague2, excellent at Question Time and his conference speech but maybe got the role too young. Jenrick was also the most rightwing, wanted to move away from Net Zero to protect our industrial base, wanted to leave the ECHR and deport immigrants etc. however he was saying some good things about building new homes for younger people too
    Thanks HYUFD. Have you made your mind up who you favour?
    Yes, Tugendhat
    Did you hear anything this evening which may have changed your mind?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    edited September 20
    darkage said:

    What is interesting about this polling is that - despite the constant MSM messaging that Reform UK is a 'far right' party - only 39% of people think they are 'extremist'. It follows that 61% of people view them as something like a mainstream/moderate party. I don't think this is a problem for Reform. The propaganda against them is ineffective but gets them free publicity and outreach. The fact that a minority of people regard them as 'extremist' is actually a selling point for them, as they can claim to be the party of upending the status quo and achieving radical change.

    Oh mate.

    This poll shows that just 3% of the public think Reform are moderate.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    theProle said:

    I am guessing the usual Starmer bashers have been all over this story?

    Wait, no?

    Robert Jenrick, who is the favourite to be the next Conservative party leader, received £75,000 from a firm which has no employees, has never made a profit and has £332,000 in debts after taking a loan from an untraceable British Virgin Islands company

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1837200185908142202

    I hope it scuppers his leadership bid

    You know you want his support to go to Kemi
    If the final two were Badenoch and Jenrick I’d likely vote for Badenoch, I absolutely will not be voting for Jenrick.

    The Dirty Desmond scandal should have disqualified from being an MP let alone leader.
    Happily it is not a choice I have to make but I am glad you share my view of Jenrick. I don't actually rate any of the contenders but Jenrick I actively despise.
    Which leads one to the unavoidable conclusion that approaching half of Tory MPs must be morons. They had five halfway plausible contenders and a sleazy dud. What is possessing them to make the sleazy dud their top choice? Even the Tory membership don't want him.

    FWIW I'm with the membership - by far their best hope is Kemi - she'll either implode, or supprise on the upside. The others will just tread water pointlessly, whilst their voters continue to drift away (mostly to Reform).
    Jenrick is the most in their image. He’s an archetypal 1990s Tory Boy.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,643
    edited September 20

    Just to cheer everyone up Nigel Farage tells Sky news it is certainly possible he could be the next PM

    Technically possible, but so is me becoming PM. There would be massive tactical voting against Farage. Reform is the party that people want to vote against in the BES:



    It is a mistake to see Reform voters as right wing. They are heavily against immigration, but wanting left wing rather than right wing economics. The voters that the Tories lost to Reform were actually more economically Left than those lost to the LDs.

    https://bsky.app/profile/psurridge.bsky.social/post/3l4biv2h2r22g

    And there is a strong inverse relationship between the electoral share of populist parties and how economically right wing they are.

    https://x.com/epkaufm/status/1811682269956035039?t=H11gS1OobWJeQFyfNVW4rg&s=19


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Foxy said:

    Just to cheer everyone up Nigel Farage tells Sky news it is certainly possible he could be the next PM

    Technically possible, but so is me becoming PM. There would be massive tactical voting against Farage. Reform is the party that people want to vote against in the BES:



    It is a mistake to see Reform voters as right wing. They are heavily against immigration, but actually wanting left wing rather than right wing economics. The voters that the Tories lost to Reform were actually more economically Left than those lost to the LDs.

    https://bsky.app/profile/psurridge.bsky.social/post/3l4biv2h2r22g

    And there is a strong inverse relationship between the electoral share of populist parties and how economically right wing they are.

    https://x.com/epkaufm/status/1811682269956035039?t=H11gS1OobWJeQFyfNVW4rg&s=19


    Indeed Trump too is much more statist and anti free trade than Reagan was and Le Pen is a Nationalist and protectionist not a free marketeer as well.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815

    mercator said:

    In "That buys a lot of newly-slimline suits" news,

    The Conservative leadership contender Robert Jenrick has accepted £75,000 in donations from an indebted company, which received an undisclosed lump sum from an untraceable BVI-listed entity.

    The Spott Fitness has no employees, has never made a profit, and its most recent accounts show it owes £332,000, raising questions about the ultimate source of the funds.


    https://www.tortoisemedia.com/2024/09/20/robert-jenricks-top-donor-received-loan-from-untraceable-bvi-firm/

    That's completely different. Surely you can see that?

    More seriously I am sure everyone is at it and I would not bet a penny against someone unearthing a Tory MP clothing donee (except statistics is on their side because there's so few of them). But to govern is to be the focus of attention.

    A lot of the point is we are looking at small scale administrative incompetence (if SKS had declared the stuff properly and on time we would know north about it) and big picture strategic incompetence (there's nothing to talk about during the interminable phoney war before October 30) as well as coordinated petty dishonesty (lady klouseau's knickers are not an office expense. It's striking that all the recipients made *exactly the same mistake* describing the donations. What are the odds?
    A lot of journalists are just looking through the Register of Interests. You can too! Here's Kemi Badenoch's entry: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmregmem/240804/badenoch_kemi.htm

    The Register of Members' Financial Interests
    As at 4 August 2024
    Badenoch, Mrs Kemi (North West Essex)

    2. (a) Support linked to an MP but received by a local party organisation or indirectly via a central party organisation

    Name of donor: Graham Edwards
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £12,000
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 29 July 2024)

    Name of donor: Charles Keymer
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £10,000
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 29 July 2024)

    Name of donor: Robert West
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £1,855
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 29 July 2024)

    2. (b) Any other support not included in Category 2(a)

    Name of donor: Shaya Raymond
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: Strategic advice and training, value £5,000
    Date received: 4 March 2024
    Date accepted: 4 March 2024
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 28 March 2024)

    Name of donor: Shaya Raymond
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: strategic advice and coaching, value £5,000
    Date received: 5 June 2024 to 25 June 2024
    Date accepted: 5 June 2024
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 31 July 2024)

    Name of donor: Neil Record
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £10,000 in support of my campaign for the leadership of the Conservative Party
    Date received: 8 July 2024
    Date accepted: 8 July 2024
    Donor status: individual

    (Registered 31 July 2024)

    3. Gifts, benefits and hospitality from UK sources

    Name of donor: Global Media and Entertainment Ltd
    Address of donor: 30 Leicester Square, London WC2H 7LA
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: Four tickets with hospitality for the Jingle Bell Ball, value £800
    Date received: 9 December 2023
    Date accepted: 9 December 2023
    Donor status: company, registration 06251684

    (Registered 28 December 2023)
    On the other hand, here's Cleverly's...

    Cleverly, Mr James (Braintree)
    Cleverly, Mr James (Braintree)

    8. Miscellaneous

    Officer in the Reserve Forces. I have received no payments since my election.

    (Registered 4 June 2016; updated 27 October 2016)
    Very cool. I hope this goes viral and cleverly wins on the back of it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    TimS said:

    theProle said:

    I am guessing the usual Starmer bashers have been all over this story?

    Wait, no?

    Robert Jenrick, who is the favourite to be the next Conservative party leader, received £75,000 from a firm which has no employees, has never made a profit and has £332,000 in debts after taking a loan from an untraceable British Virgin Islands company

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1837200185908142202

    I hope it scuppers his leadership bid

    You know you want his support to go to Kemi
    If the final two were Badenoch and Jenrick I’d likely vote for Badenoch, I absolutely will not be voting for Jenrick.

    The Dirty Desmond scandal should have disqualified from being an MP let alone leader.
    Happily it is not a choice I have to make but I am glad you share my view of Jenrick. I don't actually rate any of the contenders but Jenrick I actively despise.
    Which leads one to the unavoidable conclusion that approaching half of Tory MPs must be morons. They had five halfway plausible contenders and a sleazy dud. What is possessing them to make the sleazy dud their top choice? Even the Tory membership don't want him.

    FWIW I'm with the membership - by far their best hope is Kemi - she'll either implode, or supprise on the upside. The others will just tread water pointlessly, whilst their voters continue to drift away (mostly to Reform).
    Jenrick is the most in their image. He’s an archetypal 1990s Tory Boy.
    Jenrick is the best speaker, Badenoch is more of an intellectual right winger than a leader
  • TimS said:

    theProle said:

    I am guessing the usual Starmer bashers have been all over this story?

    Wait, no?

    Robert Jenrick, who is the favourite to be the next Conservative party leader, received £75,000 from a firm which has no employees, has never made a profit and has £332,000 in debts after taking a loan from an untraceable British Virgin Islands company

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1837200185908142202

    I hope it scuppers his leadership bid

    You know you want his support to go to Kemi
    If the final two were Badenoch and Jenrick I’d likely vote for Badenoch, I absolutely will not be voting for Jenrick.

    The Dirty Desmond scandal should have disqualified from being an MP let alone leader.
    Happily it is not a choice I have to make but I am glad you share my view of Jenrick. I don't actually rate any of the contenders but Jenrick I actively despise.
    Which leads one to the unavoidable conclusion that approaching half of Tory MPs must be morons. They had five halfway plausible contenders and a sleazy dud. What is possessing them to make the sleazy dud their top choice? Even the Tory membership don't want him.

    FWIW I'm with the membership - by far their best hope is Kemi - she'll either implode, or supprise on the upside. The others will just tread water pointlessly, whilst their voters continue to drift away (mostly to Reform).
    Jenrick is the most in their image. He’s an archetypal 1990s Tory Boy.
    I think its slightly different - he's the archetypal 1990s Tory Boy they would like to be.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    nico679 said:

    The EU have revised their youth mobility scheme . The offer to the UK will be a two year visa and it won’t include anything on universities . This seems very fair and if Labour refuse this then I’m totally done with them .

    I think that's a good deal, the government should take it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    If Starmer, Reeves and rest of Cabinet continue like this then I am highly confident in predicting the next General Election will be held in late summer 2029.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Right now I'd vote for PM Farage over Galloway

    And Jenrick

    And Starmer

    Went to Essex hustings tonight with the Tory leadership candidates. Cleverly was affable as ever and wanted to reach out to the nation as a whole and see off Reform by being true to Conservative values not becoming Reform while projecting party unity too.

    Badenoch was sharper than I expected, thoughtful and emphasised the need for the party to sell itself again based on conservative values not just be managerial. Jackie Doyle Price was representing Tugendhat who had another engagement and made clear that the party couldn’t just speak to itself but needed to reach out to the whole country and those Tories who stayed home more than Reform.

    Jenrick was the most slick and polished, a strong speaker and orator and told a few jokes. My main fear is he could be Hague2, excellent at Question Time and his conference speech but maybe got the role too young. Jenrick was also the most rightwing, wanted to move away from Net Zero to protect our industrial base, wanted to leave the ECHR and deport immigrants etc. however he was saying some good things about building new homes for younger people too
    Thanks HYUFD. Have you made your mind up who you favour?
    Yes, Tugendhat
    Did you hear anything this evening which may have changed your mind?
    No not really. I think if we want to win back voters lost to Labour and the LDs Tom Tug is our best bet. There is no point being Reform2, you can’t beat Farage on rightwing populism
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just watched Nigel Farage's speech.

    Gotta say (and I know PB won't want to hear it) but with Kieth and Rachel trying to make the country more miserable by the day and the Tories not even on at pitch at the moment... It's increasingly looking like there's only one show in town - Farage/Reform.

    Farage always has been an excellent orator and ran rings round the EU

    However, he is hugely divisive and his closeness to Trump is his achillles heel
    Trump's about to become history (after which I suspect Nigel will move on pretty fast) And at election '29 Farage's divisiveness will be set against SKS and the Labour government and whatever becomes of the Tories.

    I'm not saying REF will win the next election but if Labour keep on as they are and if the Tories don't pull themselves together, the path to PM Farage is there, IMO.
    Farage couldn’t become PM alone, he would need Tory support
    But that's hardly impossible. If the parliamentary numbers means that Con + Reform have a majority, are the Cons really going to want to try and glue something together with Labour or the Libdems* instead?

    *If the Tory + Reform numbers to give them a majority, it's more than likely the Libdems will be back to minicab size irelivance anyway
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    TimS said:

    theProle said:

    I am guessing the usual Starmer bashers have been all over this story?

    Wait, no?

    Robert Jenrick, who is the favourite to be the next Conservative party leader, received £75,000 from a firm which has no employees, has never made a profit and has £332,000 in debts after taking a loan from an untraceable British Virgin Islands company

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1837200185908142202

    I hope it scuppers his leadership bid

    You know you want his support to go to Kemi
    If the final two were Badenoch and Jenrick I’d likely vote for Badenoch, I absolutely will not be voting for Jenrick.

    The Dirty Desmond scandal should have disqualified from being an MP let alone leader.
    Happily it is not a choice I have to make but I am glad you share my view of Jenrick. I don't actually rate any of the contenders but Jenrick I actively despise.
    Which leads one to the unavoidable conclusion that approaching half of Tory MPs must be morons. They had five halfway plausible contenders and a sleazy dud. What is possessing them to make the sleazy dud their top choice? Even the Tory membership don't want him.

    FWIW I'm with the membership - by far their best hope is Kemi - she'll either implode, or supprise on the upside. The others will just tread water pointlessly, whilst their voters continue to drift away (mostly to Reform).
    Jenrick is the most in their image. He’s an archetypal 1990s Tory Boy.
    I think its slightly different - he's the archetypal 1990s Tory Boy they would like to be.
    Jenrick. I just don't get it. How has he even got a dozen names or whatever for the nomination papers never mind being now the favourite.


    Have they lost their minds?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Right now I'd vote for PM Farage over Galloway

    And Jenrick

    And Starmer

    Went to Essex hustings tonight with the Tory leadership candidates. Cleverly was affable as ever and wanted to reach out to the nation as a whole and see off Reform by being true to Conservative values not becoming Reform while projecting party unity too.

    Badenoch was sharper than I expected, thoughtful and emphasised the need for the party to sell itself again based on conservative values not just be managerial. Jackie Doyle Price was representing Tugendhat who had another engagement and made clear that the party couldn’t just speak to itself but needed to reach out to the whole country and those Tories who stayed home more than Reform.

    Jenrick was the most slick and polished, a strong speaker and orator and told a few jokes. My main fear is he could be Hague2, excellent at Question Time and his conference speech but maybe got the role too young. Jenrick was also the most rightwing, wanted to move away from Net Zero to protect our industrial base, wanted to leave the ECHR and deport immigrants etc. however he was saying some good things about building new homes for younger people too
    Thanks HYUFD. Have you made your mind up who you favour?
    Yes, Tugendhat
    Interesting. He just seems a bit bland to me.
    If I were a traditionalist Tory who didn’t fancy MAGA but still had a hankering after Thatcher and her ilk, I think I’d be going Cleverly.
    Cleverly is the most affable but not sharp enough and too laid back to be leader for me. He also wouldn’t appeal to voters lost to the LDs in the blue wall as much as Tugendhat
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,078
    A sort of public service announcement - if I have flagged anyone, my apologies, it's just that my finger seems to catch that icon when scrolling.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,130
    theProle said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just watched Nigel Farage's speech.

    Gotta say (and I know PB won't want to hear it) but with Kieth and Rachel trying to make the country more miserable by the day and the Tories not even on at pitch at the moment... It's increasingly looking like there's only one show in town - Farage/Reform.

    Farage always has been an excellent orator and ran rings round the EU

    However, he is hugely divisive and his closeness to Trump is his achillles heel
    Trump's about to become history (after which I suspect Nigel will move on pretty fast) And at election '29 Farage's divisiveness will be set against SKS and the Labour government and whatever becomes of the Tories.

    I'm not saying REF will win the next election but if Labour keep on as they are and if the Tories don't pull themselves together, the path to PM Farage is there, IMO.
    Farage couldn’t become PM alone, he would need Tory support
    But that's hardly impossible. If the parliamentary numbers means that Con + Reform have a majority, are the Cons really going to want to try and glue something together with Labour or the Libdems* instead?

    *If the Tory + Reform numbers to give them a majority, it's more than likely the Libdems will be back to minicab size irelivance anyway
    They might fancy their chances of being able to screw over the LDs to get a majority next time around more than trying it with Nigel and Reform -- after all, they've done it before :-)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Foxy said:

    Just to cheer everyone up Nigel Farage tells Sky news it is certainly possible he could be the next PM

    Technically possible, but so is me becoming PM. There would be massive tactical voting against Farage. Reform is the party that people want to vote against in the BES:



    It is a mistake to see Reform voters as right wing. They are heavily against immigration, but wanting left wing rather than right wing economics. The voters that the Tories lost to Reform were actually more economically Left than those lost to the LDs.

    https://bsky.app/profile/psurridge.bsky.social/post/3l4biv2h2r22g

    And there is a strong inverse relationship between the electoral share of populist parties and how economically right wing they are.

    https://x.com/epkaufm/status/1811682269956035039?t=H11gS1OobWJeQFyfNVW4rg&s=19


    Do not write off Reform or Farage.

    If (increasingly looks like when) Labour fuck up royally and fail to deliver on anything much whilst drowning in a sea of infighting and corruption then a populist revolution from the great disruptor of the last quarter century is on the cards.

    The electorate is volatile.

    Labour won because they weren't the hate tories.

    Farage could win in the same vein - because he is not the hate Labour government.



  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052
    Republican politicians, where do they find them? Gaetz helped Trump with his debate prep.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/matt-gaetz-party-minor-news-b2616340.html

    Rep. Matt Gaetz, the MAGA-fied Florida Republican, attended a drugged-up sex party with a 17-year-old girl he has long claimed not to know, according to three eyewitnesses cited in court papers filed late Thursday night.

    They said the underage teen showed up in her mom’s car for the July 15, 2017, gathering, which was held at lobbyist Chris Dorworth’s Lake Mary home, NOTUS reported. A high school junior at the time, the girl was provided for the enjoyment of Gaetz and the other attendees who were there to “engage in sexual activities,” while indulging in “alcohol, cocaine, ecstasy … and marijuana,” the court filings said.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    This is why people voted Labour. To hear this.

    "PM will no longer accept donations to pay for clothes"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyvpv1lzq6o
  • What will the Starmer rebrand be?

    Pious puritan to...

    I can't finish it with anything that I can imagine could work for him

    Except a leisure centre, maybe..
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    TimS said:

    Round 2:

    Chancellor McDonnell, or Chancellor Kwarteng?

    Kwateng working under Truss, or someone else?
    I suppose you could ask the same question about McDonnell working under Corbyn or someone else. I mean he's not my top choice but Kwarteng is even less so. Also I don't get the sense Kwarteng was acting as a brake on Truss.
  • TimS said:

    theProle said:

    I am guessing the usual Starmer bashers have been all over this story?

    Wait, no?

    Robert Jenrick, who is the favourite to be the next Conservative party leader, received £75,000 from a firm which has no employees, has never made a profit and has £332,000 in debts after taking a loan from an untraceable British Virgin Islands company

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1837200185908142202

    I hope it scuppers his leadership bid

    You know you want his support to go to Kemi
    If the final two were Badenoch and Jenrick I’d likely vote for Badenoch, I absolutely will not be voting for Jenrick.

    The Dirty Desmond scandal should have disqualified from being an MP let alone leader.
    Happily it is not a choice I have to make but I am glad you share my view of Jenrick. I don't actually rate any of the contenders but Jenrick I actively despise.
    Which leads one to the unavoidable conclusion that approaching half of Tory MPs must be morons. They had five halfway plausible contenders and a sleazy dud. What is possessing them to make the sleazy dud their top choice? Even the Tory membership don't want him.

    FWIW I'm with the membership - by far their best hope is Kemi - she'll either implode, or supprise on the upside. The others will just tread water pointlessly, whilst their voters continue to drift away (mostly to Reform).
    Jenrick is the most in their image. He’s an archetypal 1990s Tory Boy.
    I think its slightly different - he's the archetypal 1990s Tory Boy they would like to be.
    Jenrick. I just don't get it. How has he even got a dozen names or whatever for the nomination papers never mind being now the favourite.


    Have they lost their minds?

    Well they chose Truss because she was cosplaying mythical Thatcher.

    Perhaps they like Jenrick because he reminds them of Matt Gaetz.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    ohnotnow said:

    40 years ago today, the original Elite game was released for the BBC B.

    I've enjoyed so much time with various versions of thar game...

    I remember spending many hours learning how to write 3D graphics based on playing it. Almost drove me into becoming a mathematician.

    Thankfully my secondary school maths teacher refused to tell me anything about 3D trig, as "you don't need to know it yet" and the local library was a little spartan on the maths front. So that was that.
    Coulda been a contender...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Republican politicians, where do they find them? Gaetz helped Trump with his debate prep.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/matt-gaetz-party-minor-news-b2616340.html

    Rep. Matt Gaetz, the MAGA-fied Florida Republican, attended a drugged-up sex party with a 17-year-old girl he has long claimed not to know, according to three eyewitnesses cited in court papers filed late Thursday night.

    They said the underage teen showed up in her mom’s car for the July 15, 2017, gathering, which was held at lobbyist Chris Dorworth’s Lake Mary home, NOTUS reported. A high school junior at the time, the girl was provided for the enjoyment of Gaetz and the other attendees who were there to “engage in sexual activities,” while indulging in “alcohol, cocaine, ecstasy … and marijuana,” the court filings said.

    Like attracts like, I guess.

    Walz is using Buttigieg for debate prep.
    The VP debate should be fun.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,643

    Foxy said:

    Just to cheer everyone up Nigel Farage tells Sky news it is certainly possible he could be the next PM

    Technically possible, but so is me becoming PM. There would be massive tactical voting against Farage. Reform is the party that people want to vote against in the BES:



    It is a mistake to see Reform voters as right wing. They are heavily against immigration, but wanting left wing rather than right wing economics. The voters that the Tories lost to Reform were actually more economically Left than those lost to the LDs.

    https://bsky.app/profile/psurridge.bsky.social/post/3l4biv2h2r22g

    And there is a strong inverse relationship between the electoral share of populist parties and how economically right wing they are.

    https://x.com/epkaufm/status/1811682269956035039?t=H11gS1OobWJeQFyfNVW4rg&s=19


    Do not write off Reform or Farage.

    If (increasingly looks like when) Labour fuck up royally and fail to deliver on anything much whilst drowning in a sea of infighting and corruption then a populist revolution from the great disruptor of the last quarter century is on the cards.

    The electorate is volatile.

    Labour won because they weren't the hate tories.

    Farage could win in the same vein - because he is not the hate Labour government.



    I am not writing off Reform, but they have a mountain to climb. They are a Farage personality cult, and Farages right wing economics are unpopular even with his own voters.

    There will always be a far right vote, 3 decades ago it was the BNP, now it is Reform, but it's very hard to break through in FPTP.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    Nigelb said:

    ohnotnow said:

    40 years ago today, the original Elite game was released for the BBC B.

    I've enjoyed so much time with various versions of thar game...

    I remember spending many hours learning how to write 3D graphics based on playing it. Almost drove me into becoming a mathematician.

    Thankfully my secondary school maths teacher refused to tell me anything about 3D trig, as "you don't need to know it yet" and the local library was a little spartan on the maths front. So that was that.
    Coulda been a contender...
    My school library had a copy of Foley, van Dam, Feiner & Hughes, which was the bible up until the GPU era:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Computer-Graphics-reissued-Andries-published/dp/B00EKYRNK2/

    That book is why I applied to do Computer Science at Uni.
  • TimS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just watched Nigel Farage's speech.

    Gotta say (and I know PB won't want to hear it) but with Kieth and Rachel trying to make the country more miserable by the day and the Tories not even on at pitch at the moment... It's increasingly looking like there's only one show in town - Farage/Reform.

    Farage always has been an excellent orator and ran rings round the EU

    However, he is hugely divisive and his closeness to Trump is his achillles heel
    Trump's about to become history (after which I suspect Nigel will move on pretty fast) And at election '29 Farage's divisiveness will be set against SKS and the Labour government and whatever becomes of the Tories.

    I'm not saying REF will win the next election but if Labour keep on as they are and if the Tories don't pull themselves together, the path to PM Farage is there, IMO.
    Question for PB. In a forced choice:

    PM Farage, or PM Galloway?
    Can I choose the bottle of brandy and revolver in the study?
    hardly forced in my case ,I voted for reform at the GE
  • Andy_JS said:

    This is why people voted Labour. To hear this.

    "PM will no longer accept donations to pay for clothes"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyvpv1lzq6o

    Sir Keir is one of seven cabinet ministers who received donations and gifts from Lord Alli in the lead-up to the general election.

    On Friday, the Financial Times reported a £3,550 donation to Rayner by Lord Alli registered as “to support me in my capacity as deputy leader of the Labour party” was for clothing.

    In addition, the paper said that Reeves received £7,500 from a donor, Juliet Rosenfeld, in four instalments from January 2023 to May 2024, which it said was used to pay for clothing.


    Were they all at it ???
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625

    Andy_JS said:

    This is why people voted Labour. To hear this.

    "PM will no longer accept donations to pay for clothes"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyvpv1lzq6o

    Sir Keir is one of seven cabinet ministers who received donations and gifts from Lord Alli in the lead-up to the general election.

    On Friday, the Financial Times reported a £3,550 donation to Rayner by Lord Alli registered as “to support me in my capacity as deputy leader of the Labour party” was for clothing.

    In addition, the paper said that Reeves received £7,500 from a donor, Juliet Rosenfeld, in four instalments from January 2023 to May 2024, which it said was used to pay for clothing.


    Were they all at it ???
    Labour has a problem with the fash.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    carnforth said:

    Nigelb said:

    ohnotnow said:

    40 years ago today, the original Elite game was released for the BBC B.

    I've enjoyed so much time with various versions of thar game...

    I remember spending many hours learning how to write 3D graphics based on playing it. Almost drove me into becoming a mathematician.

    Thankfully my secondary school maths teacher refused to tell me anything about 3D trig, as "you don't need to know it yet" and the local library was a little spartan on the maths front. So that was that.
    Coulda been a contender...
    My school library had a copy of Foley, van Dam, Feiner & Hughes, which was the bible up until the GPU era:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Computer-Graphics-reissued-Andries-published/dp/B00EKYRNK2/

    That book is why I applied to do Computer Science at Uni.
    OMG. It is all coming back to me. PHIGS!!!

    I think I still have that book somewhere.

    Gotta love PB. Only earlier this week @JosiasJessop was talking about VLSI chip design and I dug out my copy of Carver-Mead.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Just to cheer everyone up Nigel Farage tells Sky news it is certainly possible he could be the next PM

    Technically possible, but so is me becoming PM. There would be massive tactical voting against Farage. Reform is the party that people want to vote against in the BES:



    It is a mistake to see Reform voters as right wing. They are heavily against immigration, but wanting left wing rather than right wing economics. The voters that the Tories lost to Reform were actually more economically Left than those lost to the LDs.

    https://bsky.app/profile/psurridge.bsky.social/post/3l4biv2h2r22g

    And there is a strong inverse relationship between the electoral share of populist parties and how economically right wing they are.

    https://x.com/epkaufm/status/1811682269956035039?t=H11gS1OobWJeQFyfNVW4rg&s=19


    Do not write off Reform or Farage.

    If (increasingly looks like when) Labour fuck up royally and fail to deliver on anything much whilst drowning in a sea of infighting and corruption then a populist revolution from the great disruptor of the last quarter century is on the cards.

    The electorate is volatile.

    Labour won because they weren't the hate tories.

    Farage could win in the same vein - because he is not the hate Labour government.



    I am not writing off Reform, but they have a mountain to climb. They are a Farage personality cult, and Farages right wing economics are unpopular even with his own voters.

    There will always be a far right vote, 3 decades ago it was the BNP, now it is Reform, but it's very hard to break through in FPTP.
    At next election it could be presenting itself as more 'break the mould', 'change everything', 'all the others have failed' rather than radical right.

    Spectator this weekend has a cover piece about Reform's active plans to become a serious party and take on Labour.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206
    edited September 20
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Just to cheer everyone up Nigel Farage tells Sky news it is certainly possible he could be the next PM

    Technically possible, but so is me becoming PM. There would be massive tactical voting against Farage. Reform is the party that people want to vote against in the BES:



    It is a mistake to see Reform voters as right wing. They are heavily against immigration, but wanting left wing rather than right wing economics. The voters that the Tories lost to Reform were actually more economically Left than those lost to the LDs.

    https://bsky.app/profile/psurridge.bsky.social/post/3l4biv2h2r22g

    And there is a strong inverse relationship between the electoral share of populist parties and how economically right wing they are.

    https://x.com/epkaufm/status/1811682269956035039?t=H11gS1OobWJeQFyfNVW4rg&s=19


    Do not write off Reform or Farage.

    If (increasingly looks like when) Labour fuck up royally and fail to deliver on anything much whilst drowning in a sea of infighting and corruption then a populist revolution from the great disruptor of the last quarter century is on the cards.

    The electorate is volatile.

    Labour won because they weren't the hate tories.

    Farage could win in the same vein - because he is not the hate Labour government.



    I am not writing off Reform, but they have a mountain to climb. They are a Farage personality cult, and Farages right wing economics are unpopular even with his own voters.

    There will always be a far right vote, 3 decades ago it was the BNP, now it is Reform, but it's very hard to break through in FPTP.
    Farage isn't really far right - he's not even the AFD.
    He's also massively further up the mountain, with almost 15% of the vote already - the BNP peaked at 1.9% in 2010.

    At 5 MPs he's already broken through. Another 5% of the vote, and he's got potential to hold the balance of power at the next election.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    carnforth said:

    Nigelb said:

    ohnotnow said:

    40 years ago today, the original Elite game was released for the BBC B.

    I've enjoyed so much time with various versions of thar game...

    I remember spending many hours learning how to write 3D graphics based on playing it. Almost drove me into becoming a mathematician.

    Thankfully my secondary school maths teacher refused to tell me anything about 3D trig, as "you don't need to know it yet" and the local library was a little spartan on the maths front. So that was that.
    Coulda been a contender...
    My school library had a copy of Foley, van Dam, Feiner & Hughes, which was the bible up until the GPU era:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Computer-Graphics-reissued-Andries-published/dp/B00EKYRNK2/

    That book is why I applied to do Computer Science at Uni.
    Crikey, I had that book! Teapot!
  • HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Right now I'd vote for PM Farage over Galloway

    And Jenrick

    And Starmer

    Went to Essex hustings tonight with the Tory leadership candidates. Cleverly was affable as ever and wanted to reach out to the nation as a whole and see off Reform by being true to Conservative values not becoming Reform while projecting party unity too.

    Badenoch was sharper than I expected, thoughtful and emphasised the need for the party to sell itself again based on conservative values not just be managerial. Jackie Doyle Price was representing Tugendhat who had another engagement and made clear that the party couldn’t just speak to itself but needed to reach out to the whole country and those Tories who stayed home more than Reform.

    Jenrick was the most slick and polished, a strong speaker and orator and told a few jokes. My main fear is he could be Hague2, excellent at Question Time and his conference speech but maybe got the role too young. Jenrick was also the most rightwing, wanted to move away from Net Zero to protect our industrial base, wanted to leave the ECHR and deport immigrants etc. however he was saying some good things about building new homes for younger people too
    Thanks HYUFD. Have you made your mind up who you favour?
    Yes, Tugendhat
    Interesting. He just seems a bit bland to me.
    If I were a traditionalist Tory who didn’t fancy MAGA but still had a hankering after Thatcher and her ilk, I think I’d be going Cleverly.
    Cleverly is the most affable but not sharp enough and too laid back to be leader for me. He also wouldn’t appeal to voters lost to the LDs in the blue wall as much as Tugendhat
    Farage, it has to be said, would be an absolutely hopeless Prime Minister.

    The vanity and petty resentments wouldn't let him stay in office too long.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    edited September 20
    carnforth said:

    Nigelb said:

    ohnotnow said:

    40 years ago today, the original Elite game was released for the BBC B.

    I've enjoyed so much time with various versions of thar game...

    I remember spending many hours learning how to write 3D graphics based on playing it. Almost drove me into becoming a mathematician.

    Thankfully my secondary school maths teacher refused to tell me anything about 3D trig, as "you don't need to know it yet" and the local library was a little spartan on the maths front. So that was that.
    Coulda been a contender...
    My school library had a copy of Foley, van Dam, Feiner & Hughes, which was the bible up until the GPU era:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Computer-Graphics-reissued-Andries-published/dp/B00EKYRNK2/

    That book is why I applied to do Computer Science at Uni.
    It was by far the most influential book on Computer Graphics for a very long time. It wasn't really eclipsed until books like Real-Time Rendering Akenine-Möller et al. or Physically Based Rendering Pharr et al. came out. Although Radiosity and Realistic Image Synthesis by Cohen and Wallace was also influential between those periods.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    Foxy said:

    Just to cheer everyone up Nigel Farage tells Sky news it is certainly possible he could be the next PM

    Technically possible, but so is me becoming PM. There would be massive tactical voting against Farage. Reform is the party that people want to vote against in the BES:



    It is a mistake to see Reform voters as right wing. They are heavily against immigration, but wanting left wing rather than right wing economics. The voters that the Tories lost to Reform were actually more economically Left than those lost to the LDs.

    https://bsky.app/profile/psurridge.bsky.social/post/3l4biv2h2r22g

    And there is a strong inverse relationship between the electoral share of populist parties and how economically right wing they are.

    https://x.com/epkaufm/status/1811682269956035039?t=H11gS1OobWJeQFyfNVW4rg&s=19


    Do not write off Reform or Farage.

    If (increasingly looks like when) Labour fuck up royally and fail to deliver on anything much whilst drowning in a sea of infighting and corruption then a populist revolution from the great disruptor of the last quarter century is on the cards.

    The electorate is volatile.

    Labour won because they weren't the hate tories.

    Farage could win in the same vein - because he is not the hate Labour government.



    The future looks clouded, but at this moment the opportunities are with the LDs and Reform. But this is also a fragile moment.

    The Tories plight from the past is obvious. But the less examined problem - which gives rise to the endless discussion to no particular conclusion - is that the Tories can't find a single obviously outstanding candidate for leader and potential PM. Not one. Both the field and the audience towards which they campaign is a joke. Things change but there is no obvious way out for them.

    Labour's start has been so bad over the simple things that it is really hard to see them being able to do the tough stuff, which they have not started yet. They have wrecked the pitch instead of rolling it.

    A public inexplicable move away from Lab/Con and towards others has actually already started. The polling figures are clear. Stop looking at Lab lead over Con etc, and start looking at Lab/Con together getting 54%.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052

    Andy_JS said:

    This is why people voted Labour. To hear this.

    "PM will no longer accept donations to pay for clothes"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyvpv1lzq6o

    Sir Keir is one of seven cabinet ministers who received donations and gifts from Lord Alli in the lead-up to the general election.

    On Friday, the Financial Times reported a £3,550 donation to Rayner by Lord Alli registered as “to support me in my capacity as deputy leader of the Labour party” was for clothing.

    In addition, the paper said that Reeves received £7,500 from a donor, Juliet Rosenfeld, in four instalments from January 2023 to May 2024, which it said was used to pay for clothing.


    Were they all at it ???
    Politicians receive donations from donors. Some politicians receive big donations from rich donors. £7500 to Reeves is nothing out of the ordinary. Go look up Kemi Badenoch’s declarations, or Carla Denyer’s, and you’ll see comparable amounts. Were you unaware of this previously?
  • So is Sir Keir incompetent, corrupt, or incompetently corrupt?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,643
    theProle said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Just to cheer everyone up Nigel Farage tells Sky news it is certainly possible he could be the next PM

    Technically possible, but so is me becoming PM. There would be massive tactical voting against Farage. Reform is the party that people want to vote against in the BES:



    It is a mistake to see Reform voters as right wing. They are heavily against immigration, but wanting left wing rather than right wing economics. The voters that the Tories lost to Reform were actually more economically Left than those lost to the LDs.

    https://bsky.app/profile/psurridge.bsky.social/post/3l4biv2h2r22g

    And there is a strong inverse relationship between the electoral share of populist parties and how economically right wing they are.

    https://x.com/epkaufm/status/1811682269956035039?t=H11gS1OobWJeQFyfNVW4rg&s=19


    Do not write off Reform or Farage.

    If (increasingly looks like when) Labour fuck up royally and fail to deliver on anything much whilst drowning in a sea of infighting and corruption then a populist revolution from the great disruptor of the last quarter century is on the cards.

    The electorate is volatile.

    Labour won because they weren't the hate tories.

    Farage could win in the same vein - because he is not the hate Labour government.



    I am not writing off Reform, but they have a mountain to climb. They are a Farage personality cult, and Farages right wing economics are unpopular even with his own voters.

    There will always be a far right vote, 3 decades ago it was the BNP, now it is Reform, but it's very hard to break through in FPTP.
    Farage isn't really far right - he's not even the AFD.
    He's also massively further up the mountain, with almost 15% of the vote already - the BNP peaked at 1.9% in 2010.

    At 5 MPs he's already broken through. Another 5% of the vote, and he's got potential to hold the balance of power at the next election.
    Yes, but Farage got 12.6% in 2015, so hasn't made much progress in a decade. Sure he won his seat at the 8th attempt, but it looks to me that Clacton will be a Tory gain in 2029.
  • So is Sir Keir incompetent, corrupt, or incompetently corrupt?

    I would say, compared to the previous Government, a saint-genius.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,643

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Just to cheer everyone up Nigel Farage tells Sky news it is certainly possible he could be the next PM

    Technically possible, but so is me becoming PM. There would be massive tactical voting against Farage. Reform is the party that people want to vote against in the BES:



    It is a mistake to see Reform voters as right wing. They are heavily against immigration, but wanting left wing rather than right wing economics. The voters that the Tories lost to Reform were actually more economically Left than those lost to the LDs.

    https://bsky.app/profile/psurridge.bsky.social/post/3l4biv2h2r22g

    And there is a strong inverse relationship between the electoral share of populist parties and how economically right wing they are.

    https://x.com/epkaufm/status/1811682269956035039?t=H11gS1OobWJeQFyfNVW4rg&s=19


    Do not write off Reform or Farage.

    If (increasingly looks like when) Labour fuck up royally and fail to deliver on anything much whilst drowning in a sea of infighting and corruption then a populist revolution from the great disruptor of the last quarter century is on the cards.

    The electorate is volatile.

    Labour won because they weren't the hate tories.

    Farage could win in the same vein - because he is not the hate Labour government.



    I am not writing off Reform, but they have a mountain to climb. They are a Farage personality cult, and Farages right wing economics are unpopular even with his own voters.

    There will always be a far right vote, 3 decades ago it was the BNP, now it is Reform, but it's very hard to break through in FPTP.
    At next election it could be presenting itself as more 'break the mould', 'change everything', 'all the others have failed' rather than radical right.

    Spectator this weekend has a cover piece about Reform's active plans to become a serious party and take on Labour.
    So the new owner has implemented a new editorial line. It's a lick up/kick down organisation so I expect their writers will fall in line.
  • O/t Never usually a fan of changing the format of international football tournaments ,but the new Champions League is a great change
  • Andy_JS said:

    This is why people voted Labour. To hear this.

    "PM will no longer accept donations to pay for clothes"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyvpv1lzq6o

    Sir Keir is one of seven cabinet ministers who received donations and gifts from Lord Alli in the lead-up to the general election.

    On Friday, the Financial Times reported a £3,550 donation to Rayner by Lord Alli registered as “to support me in my capacity as deputy leader of the Labour party” was for clothing.

    In addition, the paper said that Reeves received £7,500 from a donor, Juliet Rosenfeld, in four instalments from January 2023 to May 2024, which it said was used to pay for clothing.


    Were they all at it ???
    Politicians receive donations from donors. Some politicians receive big donations from rich donors. £7500 to Reeves is nothing out of the ordinary. Go look up Kemi Badenoch’s declarations, or Carla Denyer’s, and you’ll see comparable amounts. Were you unaware of this previously?
    And what do the donors get in return.

    I suppose we'll find out some of that in the years to come.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052
    Here’s Siân Berry’s declaration…

    Name of donor: Deborah Law
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £2,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Adam Management Holdings Ltd
    Address of donor: 1 Canada Square, London E14 5AA
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £10,000
    Donor status: company, registration 13453522

    Name of donor: Mark Tucker
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £44,036.08
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: John Street
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £5,999.99
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Sarah Lawson
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £2,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Malcolm Powell
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £2,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Martin Gillett
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £5,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Robert Ashby
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £2,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: David Broadway
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £5,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Matthew A Oakeshott
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £10,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Daniel Goldsmith
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £2,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Jane Lawson
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £3,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: John C Walton
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £3,750
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Mark Brown
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £11,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Mark Constantine
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £20,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Robert Heritage
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £2,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: John Pemberton
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £40,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Neale Powell-Cook
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £5,000
    Donor status: individual
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Fat Elon. Naked from the waist up. Wrapped in a wet towel from the waist down.

    https://nitter.poast.org/StrictlyChristo/status/1833958349492420671#m
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,643

    O/t Never usually a fan of changing the format of international football tournaments ,but the new Champions League is a great change

    For the better or worse?

    I haven't been following it as my team is in a relegation scrap rather than European place.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    edited September 20

    Andy_JS said:

    This is why people voted Labour. To hear this.

    "PM will no longer accept donations to pay for clothes"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyvpv1lzq6o

    Sir Keir is one of seven cabinet ministers who received donations and gifts from Lord Alli in the lead-up to the general election.

    On Friday, the Financial Times reported a £3,550 donation to Rayner by Lord Alli registered as “to support me in my capacity as deputy leader of the Labour party” was for clothing.

    In addition, the paper said that Reeves received £7,500 from a donor, Juliet Rosenfeld, in four instalments from January 2023 to May 2024, which it said was used to pay for clothing.


    Were they all at it ???
    Politicians receive donations from donors. Some politicians receive big donations from rich donors. £7500 to Reeves is nothing out of the ordinary. Go look up Kemi Badenoch’s declarations, or Carla Denyer’s, and you’ll see comparable amounts. Were you unaware of this previously?
    I have been scratching my head about this point all week. Perhaps it will make things easier if Toryherd outline exactly what donors should be allowed to donate, at what fee, and to whom.

    When they have done this, perhaps they can do the same for business expenses, and clarify whether they would extend these rules outside Parliament to any gift where any person could hypothetically be bribed or in some other way influenced.

    Maybe @TSE could collate their answers, and pin them up somewhere on the site?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    So is Sir Keir incompetent, corrupt, or incompetently corrupt?

    Corruptly incompetent gets my vote.
  • on whether Reform can come to power in some form ,its good to have that ambition but there is probably enough sheepish people who believe the labels far right (as if Farage is a Nazi) who will clam up and vote for the establishment again whether Labour,LD or Tory to prevent it. Should be fun watching though
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    O/t Never usually a fan of changing the format of international football tournaments ,but the new Champions League is a great change

    Instinctively I am for it (liked the idea of one big league) but out of interest what makes you say that?
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815

    So is Sir Keir incompetent, corrupt, or incompetently corrupt?

    Sir Klouseau. Comedy for the ages.

    And so fucked it is unreal. Nothing can happen until the budget which is now about 54 years away. If it's a good budget everyone will hate him and the chancellor. If it's a bad budget everyone will hate him and the chancellor and also point at them and laugh or rather continue to point at them and laugh.

    But he's got some very nice shirts out of it.
  • Foxy said:

    O/t Never usually a fan of changing the format of international football tournaments ,but the new Champions League is a great change

    For the better or worse?

    I haven't been following it as my team is in a relegation scrap rather than European place.
    for better - before I rarely looked at CL results before the last 16 as it was a foregone conclusion who would thrash who in the group stages- Now all matches are interesting from the start
  • Whoever would have thought that just a few weeks in from a landslide win, the headline tonight is the Prime Minister confirms he will buy his own clothes !!!!!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    TimS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just watched Nigel Farage's speech.

    Gotta say (and I know PB won't want to hear it) but with Kieth and Rachel trying to make the country more miserable by the day and the Tories not even on at pitch at the moment... It's increasingly looking like there's only one show in town - Farage/Reform.

    Farage always has been an excellent orator and ran rings round the EU

    However, he is hugely divisive and his closeness to Trump is his achillles heel
    Trump's about to become history (after which I suspect Nigel will move on pretty fast) And at election '29 Farage's divisiveness will be set against SKS and the Labour government and whatever becomes of the Tories.

    I'm not saying REF will win the next election but if Labour keep on as they are and if the Tories don't pull themselves together, the path to PM Farage is there, IMO.
    Question for PB. In a forced choice:

    PM Farage, or PM Galloway?
    I would go for Farage. I think he is probably thinks democracy is OK and has at least a passing affection for his country. He is weird but possibly not a narcissist. Has friends who are.

    Galloway, I believe, has contempt for democracy and has a deep dislike about most aspects of the UK. Shows fondness for its enemies. Acts like a narcissist on occasion.
  • Whoever would have thought that just a few weeks in from a landslide win, the headline tonight is the Prime Minister confirms he will buy his own clothes !!!!!

    I get the image of Grace Brothers in are you being served in my head for some reason
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    edited September 20

    So is Sir Keir incompetent, corrupt, or incompetently corrupt?

    Here’s Siân Berry’s declaration…

    Name of donor: Deborah Law
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £2,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Adam Management Holdings Ltd
    Address of donor: 1 Canada Square, London E14 5AA
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £10,000
    Donor status: company, registration 13453522

    Name of donor: Mark Tucker
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £44,036.08
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: John Street
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £5,999.99
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Sarah Lawson
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £2,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Malcolm Powell
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £2,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Martin Gillett
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £5,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Robert Ashby
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £2,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: David Broadway
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £5,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Matthew A Oakeshott
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £10,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Daniel Goldsmith
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £2,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Jane Lawson
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £3,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: John C Walton
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £3,750
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Mark Brown
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £11,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Mark Constantine
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £20,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Robert Heritage
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £2,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: John Pemberton
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £40,000
    Donor status: individual

    Name of donor: Neale Powell-Cook
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £5,000
    Donor status: individual

    LOL! Lock her up, etc etc.

    P.S. The Oakeshotts are an odd family. Matthew is a Green donor, his cousin-niece Isabel is a rightwing Reformer and her sister, Veronica, was a Labour candidate at the GE!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Just checked the Guardian’s two minute highlight reel of the Reform Conference

    Ok, wow. They look like the real deal. Like a more moderate British but equally slick version of RN or AfD

    Also, it looks like they have money. And Farage looks hungry to do this. I wonder if they actually can
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Leon said:

    Sometimes travel is bewildering. This time yesterday - roughIy - I was walking around the remarkable gardens of the University of British Columbia, gazing across the wild blue PaciHfic sounds and the Strait of Georgia to Bowen and Vancouver Islands, thickly carpeted in great green larch and spruce forests, some of the most remote areas of the globe, until the last century. Some of the last places where pre industrial mankind held out - within living memory

    Now I am in Camden

    I wonder if we, as a species have really adapted to this change, which has happened in the last few decades in our 200,000 year history as Homo sapiens

    What's more, the speed of change is ACCELERATING

    Is the speed of change accelerating? Travel went from horses to trains to planes pretty fast which is an incredible change but then planes haven't got any faster since the 1960s. If anything they've got slower, plus the security theatre added an extra hour. Admittedly the fuel economy got a bit better and more people can afford it but I think overall travel change is decelerating.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052
    Which political party haven’t I picked in so far…? What about the SNP!

    Flynn, Stephen (Aberdeen South)
    2. (a) Support linked to an MP but received by a local party organisation or indirectly via a central party organisation
    Name of donor: Allan MacAskill
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £30,000
    Donor status: individual
    (Registered 2 August 2024)

    3. Gifts, benefits and hospitality from UK sources
    Name of donor: The English Football League
    Address of donor: EFL House, 10-12 West Cliff, Preston PR1 8HU
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: Ticket with hospitality for the Carabao Cup Final at Wembley (value is estimated), value £350
    Date received: 25 February 2024
    Date accepted: 25 February 2024
    Donor status: company, registration 00080612
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,643

    Foxy said:

    O/t Never usually a fan of changing the format of international football tournaments ,but the new Champions League is a great change

    For the better or worse?

    I haven't been following it as my team is in a relegation scrap rather than European place.
    for better - before I rarely looked at CL results before the last 16 as it was a foregone conclusion who would thrash who in the group stages- Now all matches are interesting from the start
    It's an awful lot of games to eliminate just 12 teams from 36.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    O/t Never usually a fan of changing the format of international football tournaments ,but the new Champions League is a great change

    For the better or worse?

    I haven't been following it as my team is in a relegation scrap rather than European place.
    for better - before I rarely looked at CL results before the last 16 as it was a foregone conclusion who would thrash who in the group stages- Now all matches are interesting from the start
    It's an awful lot of games to eliminate just 12 teams from 36.
    it eliminates 20 effectively after play off based on the league position
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,643

    Which political party haven’t I picked in so far…? What about the SNP!

    Flynn, Stephen (Aberdeen South)
    2. (a) Support linked to an MP but received by a local party organisation or indirectly via a central party organisation
    Name of donor: Allan MacAskill
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £30,000
    Donor status: individual
    (Registered 2 August 2024)

    3. Gifts, benefits and hospitality from UK sources
    Name of donor: The English Football League
    Address of donor: EFL House, 10-12 West Cliff, Preston PR1 8HU
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: Ticket with hospitality for the Carabao Cup Final at Wembley (value is estimated), value £350
    Date received: 25 February 2024
    Date accepted: 25 February 2024
    Donor status: company, registration 00080612

    The real scandal there is an SNP Westminster leader accepting hospitality from the English Football League. It could be career ending!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    ….
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,649
    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Just to cheer everyone up Nigel Farage tells Sky news it is certainly possible he could be the next PM

    Technically possible, but so is me becoming PM. There would be massive tactical voting against Farage. Reform is the party that people want to vote against in the BES:



    It is a mistake to see Reform voters as right wing. They are heavily against immigration, but wanting left wing rather than right wing economics. The voters that the Tories lost to Reform were actually more economically Left than those lost to the LDs.

    https://bsky.app/profile/psurridge.bsky.social/post/3l4biv2h2r22g

    And there is a strong inverse relationship between the electoral share of populist parties and how economically right wing they are.

    https://x.com/epkaufm/status/1811682269956035039?t=H11gS1OobWJeQFyfNVW4rg&s=19


    Do not write off Reform or Farage.

    If (increasingly looks like when) Labour fuck up royally and fail to deliver on anything much whilst drowning in a sea of infighting and corruption then a populist revolution from the great disruptor of the last quarter century is on the cards.

    The electorate is volatile.

    Labour won because they weren't the hate tories.

    Farage could win in the same vein - because he is not the hate Labour government.



    The future looks clouded, but at this moment the opportunities are with the LDs and Reform. But this is also a fragile moment.

    The Tories plight from the past is obvious. But the less examined problem - which gives rise to the endless discussion to no particular conclusion - is that the Tories can't find a single obviously outstanding candidate for leader and potential PM. Not one. Both the field and the audience towards which they campaign is a joke. Things change but there is no obvious way out for them.

    Labour's start has been so bad over the simple things that it is really hard to see them being able to do the tough stuff, which they have not started yet. They have wrecked the pitch instead of rolling it.

    A public inexplicable move away from Lab/Con and towards others has actually already started. The polling figures are clear. Stop looking at Lab lead over Con etc, and start looking at Lab/Con together getting 54%.
    The relentless focus on Reform is playing into the Lib Dems hands. Reform voters are wildly out of sync with the rest of the population (particularly with their support of Trump) and as that poll Darkage posted earlier demonstrates, almost no one thinks they are moderate.

    All the polling since the election supports this, including the voter fungibility across Green-Lab-Lib-Con, in contrast to Reform.

    If the Tories go with Jenrick, they end up in the no man's land between the Reform voters and the rest of the population. Meanwhile the Lib Dems are much, much closer to the political centre of gravity. The only big-name Conservative with any chance of fighting them off is the one who did so at the election - Jeremy Hunt.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Which political party haven’t I picked in so far…? What about the SNP!

    Flynn, Stephen (Aberdeen South)
    2. (a) Support linked to an MP but received by a local party organisation or indirectly via a central party organisation
    Name of donor: Allan MacAskill
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £30,000
    Donor status: individual
    (Registered 2 August 2024)

    3. Gifts, benefits and hospitality from UK sources
    Name of donor: The English Football League
    Address of donor: EFL House, 10-12 West Cliff, Preston PR1 8HU
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: Ticket with hospitality for the Carabao Cup Final at Wembley (value is estimated), value £350
    Date received: 25 February 2024
    Date accepted: 25 February 2024
    Donor status: company, registration 00080612

    These are fun. Keep em coming.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,250

    Leon said:

    Sometimes travel is bewildering. This time yesterday - roughIy - I was walking around the remarkable gardens of the University of British Columbia, gazing across the wild blue PaciHfic sounds and the Strait of Georgia to Bowen and Vancouver Islands, thickly carpeted in great green larch and spruce forests, some of the most remote areas of the globe, until the last century. Some of the last places where pre industrial mankind held out - within living memory

    Now I am in Camden

    I wonder if we, as a species have really adapted to this change, which has happened in the last few decades in our 200,000 year history as Homo sapiens

    What's more, the speed of change is ACCELERATING

    Is the speed of change accelerating? Travel went from horses to trains to planes pretty fast which is an incredible change but then planes haven't got any faster since the 1960s. If anything they've got slower, plus the security theatre added an extra hour. Admittedly the fuel economy got a bit better and more people can afford it but I think overall travel change is decelerating.
    The biggest change is that many more flights are direct rather than hub and spoke - much less changing of planes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,643

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    O/t Never usually a fan of changing the format of international football tournaments ,but the new Champions League is a great change

    For the better or worse?

    I haven't been following it as my team is in a relegation scrap rather than European place.
    for better - before I rarely looked at CL results before the last 16 as it was a foregone conclusion who would thrash who in the group stages- Now all matches are interesting from the start
    It's an awful lot of games to eliminate just 12 teams from 36.
    it eliminates 20 effectively after play off based on the league position
    Yes, after Christmas there are effectively two rounds of 16. I expect many of the matches will be dead rubbers before the league bit ends.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052
    Ed Davey has declared a total of £29,500 from 6 donors, and…

    Name of donor: Sudhir Choudhrie
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £25,000 this donation is for the sole purpose of providing additional personal care support to my young son, who has an undiagnosed neurological disorder resulting in severe physical and learning disabilities.
    Date received: 22 March 2024 to 31 October 2024
    Date accepted: 22 March 2024
    Donor status: individual

    Plus

    National Liberal Club Honorary life membership as Leader of the Liberal Democrats (value provided is that in 2023), value £798

    A seat at Viaro Energy's table at the London Air Ambulance Charity Gala, value £2,500

    And…

    Name of donor: The Football Association
    Address of donor: Wembley Stadium, Wembley, London HA9 0WS
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: Two hospitality tickets for me and a family member to attend Taylor Swift's "The Eras Tour", value £584
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    Leon said:

    Just checked the Guardian’s two minute highlight reel of the Reform Conference

    Ok, wow. They look like the real deal. Like a more moderate British but equally slick version of RN or AfD

    Also, it looks like they have money. And Farage looks hungry to do this. I wonder if they actually can

    Watched the same two minutes. Immediately you notice that if you take Farage away it becomes tacky, amateur and populism without control, with nods to conspiracy theory types. And not slick at all.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Ed Davey has declared a total of £29,500 from 6 donors, and…

    Name of donor: Sudhir Choudhrie
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £25,000 this donation is for the sole purpose of providing additional personal care support to my young son, who has an undiagnosed neurological disorder resulting in severe physical and learning disabilities.
    Date received: 22 March 2024 to 31 October 2024
    Date accepted: 22 March 2024
    Donor status: individual

    Plus

    National Liberal Club Honorary life membership as Leader of the Liberal Democrats (value provided is that in 2023), value £798

    A seat at Viaro Energy's table at the London Air Ambulance Charity Gala, value £2,500

    And…

    Name of donor: The Football Association
    Address of donor: Wembley Stadium, Wembley, London HA9 0WS
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: Two hospitality tickets for me and a family member to attend Taylor Swift's "The Eras Tour", value £584

    It will probably be quicker to highlight the MPs that did NOT get football and Swift tickets
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Just checked the Guardian’s two minute highlight reel of the Reform Conference

    Ok, wow. They look like the real deal. Like a more moderate British but equally slick version of RN or AfD

    Also, it looks like they have money. And Farage looks hungry to do this. I wonder if they actually can

    Watched the same two minutes. Immediately you notice that if you take Farage away it becomes tacky, amateur and populism without control, with nods to conspiracy theory types. And not slick at all.
    Leon Is Pissed Again

    Episode 7,135 in a series of 54,000.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Sometimes travel is bewildering. This time yesterday - roughIy - I was walking around the remarkable gardens of the University of British Columbia, gazing across the wild blue PaciHfic sounds and the Strait of Georgia to Bowen and Vancouver Islands, thickly carpeted in great green larch and spruce forests, some of the most remote areas of the globe, until the last century. Some of the last places where pre industrial mankind held out - within living memory

    Now I am in Camden

    I wonder if we, as a species have really adapted to this change, which has happened in the last few decades in our 200,000 year history as Homo sapiens

    What's more, the speed of change is ACCELERATING

    Is the speed of change accelerating? Travel went from horses to trains to planes pretty fast which is an incredible change but then planes haven't got any faster since the 1960s. If anything they've got slower, plus the security theatre added an extra hour. Admittedly the fuel economy got a bit better and more people can afford it but I think overall travel change is decelerating.
    I mean the speed of technological change overall, which, yes, is definitely accelerating. Verging on exponential
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052
    Nigel Farage’s report is mainly outside earnings: £82k from GB News, £4k per month from the Telegraph, £2k from Meta, £17k from Cameo, £2k from X, £3k from Google, and £13k for a US speaking engagement. The biggest donation was the previously mentioned £33k for a trip to the US.

    Lee Anderson reports £100k per month from GB News!!! He got £38k in donations.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Just checked the Guardian’s two minute highlight reel of the Reform Conference

    Ok, wow. They look like the real deal. Like a more moderate British but equally slick version of RN or AfD

    Also, it looks like they have money. And Farage looks hungry to do this. I wonder if they actually can

    Watched the same two minutes. Immediately you notice that if you take Farage away it becomes tacky, amateur and populism without control, with nods to conspiracy theory types. And not slick at all.
    Except that I’m really good at this shit, extrapolating very fast from a short burst of information, and you - frankly - are not
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,783
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Just checked the Guardian’s two minute highlight reel of the Reform Conference

    Ok, wow. They look like the real deal. Like a more moderate British but equally slick version of RN or AfD

    Also, it looks like they have money. And Farage looks hungry to do this. I wonder if they actually can

    Watched the same two minutes. Immediately you notice that if you take Farage away it becomes tacky, amateur and populism without control, with nods to conspiracy theory types. And not slick at all.
    Aside from that though. Hurrah for the Tweedshirts!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    edited September 20

    Ed Davey has declared a total of £29,500 from 6 donors, and…

    Name of donor: Sudhir Choudhrie
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £25,000 this donation is for the sole purpose of providing additional personal care support to my young son, who has an undiagnosed neurological disorder resulting in severe physical and learning disabilities.
    Date received: 22 March 2024 to 31 October 2024
    Date accepted: 22 March 2024
    Donor status: individual

    Plus

    National Liberal Club Honorary life membership as Leader of the Liberal Democrats (value provided is that in 2023), value £798

    A seat at Viaro Energy's table at the London Air Ambulance Charity Gala, value £2,500

    And…

    Name of donor: The Football Association
    Address of donor: Wembley Stadium, Wembley, London HA9 0WS
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: Two hospitality tickets for me and a family member to attend Taylor Swift's "The Eras Tour", value £584

    What about Farage's trips to boost Trump? When it comes to troughing he leaves the rest standing. Do his trips to New York benefit the good folk of Clacton?

    Sorry if you've covered him and I missed it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Yes @williamglenn has hacked my account.

    Gold standard Gallup.poll has Trump two ahead of Harris but just look at Harris's underwater (-25) figures with independents. Bet accordingly.

    The end of US democracy starts on January 20, 2025. Brace, brace!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Leon said:

    Just checked the Guardian’s two minute highlight reel of the Reform Conference

    Ok, wow. They look like the real deal. Like a more moderate British but equally slick version of RN or AfD

    Also, it looks like they have money. And Farage looks hungry to do this. I wonder if they actually can

    "Silent majority" phrase from Farage.

    Still pulling its weight 50 odd years after Nixon.
  • Survation poll tonight

    Has Starmer been successful in cleaning up politics - 60/28 no

    Should Starmer have accepted gifts of expensive clothing - 58/23 no

    Should the PM accept tickets to football/concerts - 59/27 no

    Should Lady Starmer accepts gifts such as clothes - 62/22 no

    Will labours plans for get the economy growing - 48/30 no

    Should Sue Gray be paid more than the PM - 64/17 no

    Do you agree with means testing the WFA - 59/31 no

    And Starmer has dropped 26% in favourability and is only 5% ahead of Sunak
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052

    Ed Davey has declared a total of £29,500 from 6 donors, and…

    Name of donor: Sudhir Choudhrie
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £25,000 this donation is for the sole purpose of providing additional personal care support to my young son, who has an undiagnosed neurological disorder resulting in severe physical and learning disabilities.
    Date received: 22 March 2024 to 31 October 2024
    Date accepted: 22 March 2024
    Donor status: individual

    Plus

    National Liberal Club Honorary life membership as Leader of the Liberal Democrats (value provided is that in 2023), value £798

    A seat at Viaro Energy's table at the London Air Ambulance Charity Gala, value £2,500

    And…

    Name of donor: The Football Association
    Address of donor: Wembley Stadium, Wembley, London HA9 0WS
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: Two hospitality tickets for me and a family member to attend Taylor Swift's "The Eras Tour", value £584

    It will probably be quicker to highlight the MPs that did NOT get football and Swift tickets
    There are some less well known MPs who declare nil, e.g. Kirsty Blackman (SNP) and Sorcha Eastwood (Alliance). Lots only declare small change, or expenses for Parliamentary group visits, or outside earnings that seem very reasonable (also being a councillor, final payments from employee before they were elected).
  • KnightOutKnightOut Posts: 142
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Just to cheer everyone up Nigel Farage tells Sky news it is certainly possible he could be the next PM

    Technically possible, but so is me becoming PM. There would be massive tactical voting against Farage. Reform is the party that people want to vote against in the BES:



    It is a mistake to see Reform voters as right wing. They are heavily against immigration, but actually wanting left wing rather than right wing economics. The voters that the Tories lost to Reform were actually more economically Left than those lost to the LDs.

    https://bsky.app/profile/psurridge.bsky.social/post/3l4biv2h2r22g

    And there is a strong inverse relationship between the electoral share of populist parties and how economically right wing they are.

    https://x.com/epkaufm/status/1811682269956035039?t=H11gS1OobWJeQFyfNVW4rg&s=19


    Indeed Trump too is much more statist and anti free trade than Reagan was and Le Pen is a Nationalist and protectionist not a free marketeer as well.

    Which is why all this 'far right', 'hard right', 'extreme right' wankspeak is a really, really flawed narrative.

    If being anti-immigration and insular is right-wing, why have the countries with the most left-wing governments in the history of the world all been virtually closed ecosystems?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Yes @williamglenn has hacked my account.

    Gold standard Gallup.poll has Trump two ahead of Harris but just look at Harris's underwater (-25) figures with independents. Bet accordingly.

    The end of US democracy starts on January 20, 2025. Brace, brace!

    Morning Consult meanwhile has Harris ahead in Wisconsin, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Virginia and Minnesota while Trump only leads in Texas, Florida, Ohio and Georgia.

    https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-election-state-polls

    Could Trump be the first Republican presidential candidate to win the national popular vote but lose the EC?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Survation poll tonight

    Has Starmer been successful in cleaning up politics - 60/28 no

    Should Starmer have accepted gifts of expensive clothing - 58/23 no

    Should the PM accept tickets to football/concerts - 59/27 no

    Should Lady Starmer accepts gifts such as clothes - 62/22 no

    Will labours plans for get the economy growing - 48/30 no

    Should Sue Gray be paid more than the PM - 64/17 no

    Do you agree with means testing the WFA - 59/31 no

    And Starmer has dropped 26% in favourability and is only 5% ahead of Sunak

    Surprised the Yes figures are so high, given the week of pearl-clutching in the media.

    Would be interesting to ask the public what proportion of MPs they thought receive gifts?

    https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmregmem/240902/240902.pdf
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    Starmer should auction all the gifts he was given and give the prooeeds to charity. You should get a good premium for provenance
  • Ed Davey has declared a total of £29,500 from 6 donors, and…

    Name of donor: Sudhir Choudhrie
    Address of donor: private
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £25,000 this donation is for the sole purpose of providing additional personal care support to my young son, who has an undiagnosed neurological disorder resulting in severe physical and learning disabilities.
    Date received: 22 March 2024 to 31 October 2024
    Date accepted: 22 March 2024
    Donor status: individual

    Plus

    National Liberal Club Honorary life membership as Leader of the Liberal Democrats (value provided is that in 2023), value £798

    A seat at Viaro Energy's table at the London Air Ambulance Charity Gala, value £2,500

    And…

    Name of donor: The Football Association
    Address of donor: Wembley Stadium, Wembley, London HA9 0WS
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: Two hospitality tickets for me and a family member to attend Taylor Swift's "The Eras Tour", value £584

    It will probably be quicker to highlight the MPs that did NOT get football and Swift tickets
    There are some less well known MPs who declare nil, e.g. Kirsty Blackman (SNP) and Sorcha Eastwood (Alliance). Lots only declare small change, or expenses for Parliamentary group visits, or outside earnings that seem very reasonable (also being a councillor, final payments from employee before they were elected).
    I admire you two doing your best to justify Starmer and others freebies, but look at tonight's survation poll and realise this has cut through and the public do not like it
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,643
    Interesting early polling figures for day one of in person voting.

    https://x.com/ryanobles/status/1837197785361506440?t=pqC1R2EA9rFMnzK4XdOAAA&s=19

    Higher than the first day last time, and the photo is mostly younger women in line.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052
    What about Jeremy Corbyn, man of the people? A £15k donation from We Deserve Better and £5k from an individual. And then someone will have to explain this to me, but there’s nearly £300k in various tranches that look like this…

    JBC Defence Fund Ltd
    Address of donor: Lytchett House, 13 Freeland Park, Wareham Road, Lytchett Matravers, Poole Dorset BH16 6FH
    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: £2,916.67 legal fees paid to my solicitor in the case of Millett Vs Corbyn

    WTF?

    He’s also done lots of international visits, with the largest being £3k from the International Transport Workers' Federation to address their event in India.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Roger said:

    Starmer should auction all the gifts he was given and give the prooeeds to charity. You should get a good premium for provenance

    Is Arsenal his to auction?
This discussion has been closed.