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Jenrick continues his surge in the betting markets – politicalbetting.com
Jenrick continues his surge in the betting markets – politicalbetting.com
After the second round result there was a bit of movement towards Badenoch but that seems to have dissipated with Robert Jenrick going past the 50% probability mark in the past week.
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And where are all the gods?
Where's the streetwise Hercules
To fight the rising odds?
I mean, have they all joined the Lib Dems, or what?
*and, indeed, women
https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1836042758588432461
https://x.com/timesradio/status/1835942047561503172
He cares about performative cruelty
A good paper on SMRs.
https://www.tenentrepreneurs.org/small-wonders-1
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd7xnelvpepo
The Lib Dems are the all things to all middle class men and women party. The Waitrose Party as Gardenwalker referred to them.
What do the Lib Dems offer anything to the country apart from being a protest vote to discontented Tories in the shires ?
Hezbollah said the incident is the largest intelligence breach in group's history"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13860239/Hundreds-Hezbollah-fighters-wounded-PAGERS-explode.html
We have other choices. Labour and Tories are not the only game in town.
Are they giving the contenders full speaking slots, or going ahead with the silly plan to restrict them to ten minutes each?
I don't see much evidence of either Labour or the Conservatives moving beyond their core support.
Just for starters, how about efficient, uncorrupt administration in local government across the country. Moderate, constructive and responsible attitudes. A positive engagement with the EU. A belief in decency and basic standards including respect for our armed forces, teachers, doctors and the civil service. A massive number of informed, well thought policies crafted by practitioners and experts. A contempt for lies and bullshit...
You might say so.
However, there was some tolerably pretty countryside on the way
If we believe the last lot of polling of the Tory membership (and there are always problems with that) Kemi Badenoch was their pick. I have always thought it would be a brave, and slightly arrogant, parliamentary party that sends a top two without the members favourite. So if Team Kemi has a good conference the pressure to make sure she makes the ballot could be pretty significant. If she makes the ballot Jenrick has a proper fight on his hands.
However, from what I can see she’s not exactly setting the world alight, and Jenrick is capitalising on that. He will surely hope that in the last two he faces Tugendhat or Cleverly - if that is the case he will walk it.
That all being said I think Badenoch is probably the value bet. As I think she’s a touch underpriced. But she may well be out of the running completely if her conference is poor.
And without mobiles they are crocked
Bravo
One is the US FL approach, get a load of British designers to dress her, give the designers publicity, then either hand the dresses back or auction them for charity afterwards.
The other is the Carrie Johnson approach of renting dresses for events, which is what the ladies of the media do when they are on TV five days a week and can’t keep repeating outfits.
I give you Royal Mail privatization, "another Lib Dem manifesto promise delivered". As the 6 day national delivery service looks set to become extinct. RM has the potential to be an bigger disaster than water.
https://www.propublica.org/article/georgia-abortion-ban-amber-thurman-death
In her final hours, Amber Nicole Thurman suffered from a grave infection that her suburban Atlanta hospital was well-equipped to treat.
She’d taken abortion pills and encountered a rare complication; she had not expelled all of the fetal tissue from her body. She showed up at Piedmont Henry Hospital in need of a routine procedure to clear it from her uterus, called a dilation and curettage, or D&C.
But just that summer, her state had made performing the procedure a felony, with few exceptions. Any doctor who violated the new Georgia law could be prosecuted and face up to a decade in prison.
Thurman waited in pain in a hospital bed, worried about what would happen to her 6-year-old son, as doctors monitored her infection spreading, her blood pressure sinking and her organs beginning to fail.
It took 20 hours for doctors to finally operate. By then, it was too late.
The otherwise healthy 28-year-old medical assistant, who had her sights set on nursing school, should not have died, an official state committee recently concluded.
Puts all your accusations of backwardness in relation to payment systems into perspective, and also shows what can happen if the law is used to enforce a shibboleth.
I could post a dozen photos all as lovely as those (ofc I won’t) yet all different
Also last night they took me into THE COLDEST VODKA ROOM IN THE WORLD
https://bearfootbistro.com/dining-menu/vodka-menu/
I’d say that was fair expenses, whenever work have asked me to dress silly in the past they’ve paid for the suit hire (I once worked at Royal Ascot).
As commented earlier, that’s somewhat different from giving Lady S a five-figure cheque and sending her to Kensington High St.
* Mr and Mrs Johnson were totally skint when living in Downing St, thanks to his divorce and much reduced income, and her working for a charity on a low wage.
The thought of wearing clothes that other people have worn makes me ick.
I note Leon's back in town so you can tag-team nonsense with him. Ah well, I've been posting like a man possessed for the last 24 hours so a rest is as good as a change.
We assumed Starmer and Labour offered a break to the Tories and he, and his govt, are just continuity Sunak.
👏
Were the pagers infiltrated with explosives somehow, or is there a sequence of whatever that can make a pager explode? That it was simultaneous suggests the former to me - probably.
For a comparison, when Stuxnet was used to wreck the Iranian uranium enrichment facility it caused the centrifuges to run in a way which burned them out.
Then phoned them. To say goodbye.
What made them think: Oh, this will be fine, yes we attacked Boris for wallpaper but who cares
Basically they wanted to cream the system from Day 1. They were just waiting for THEIR turn to be venal greedy fucks
Those are all just meaningless soundbites you would expect from Lib Dem fanboys.
There are great parts of the country that are not Tory. What do they offer us ? What do they offer the red wall apart from meaningless platitudes like the ones you have just come up with.
I'd be very surprised if Mossad was going to the trouble of infiltrating Hezbollah to put tiny amounts of explosives into all their pagers.
😶
It’s terrifying and it’s genius. They’ll have to go back to carrier pigeons. lol
We are getting bought clothes for good reasons because we don’t do bad things, Boris was getting wallpaper because he was an awful person so that’s a bad thing.
Today on the news Labour ministers are apparently calling for Simon Case to move forward his resignation because of leaks from number ten. Bad leaks against good Labour. They didn’t however call for him to resign over leaks when the Tories were in number ten - good leaks. And so on.
This could ruin the black economy.
Israel should stick to doing genius stuff like this, not bombing the fuck out of kids in Gaza
> Conservatives take long-time Liberal stronghold in Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_LaSalle—Émard—Verdun_federal_by-election
Yet another by-election defeat for Trudeau, whose Liberals recently lost a key Toronto stronghold.
> New Democrats retain long-time NDP stronghold in east Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Elmwood—Transcona_federal_by-election
Dippers resist rising Tory tide.
> Impending provincial general election in British Columbia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_British_Columbia_general_election
Most recent polling shows incumbent NDP tied with new-model Conservative Party of BC, which elected zero MPs at last provincial GE, and had been essentially kaput in provincial politics for two generations.
HOWEVER, it has recently replaced the BC Liberals (small-c conservatives) who a decade ago were the governing party in the province. In fact, the Libs changed their name to "British Columbia United (BCU) last year, then announced last month they would NOT be contesting the 2024 GE.
Note there if form in BC history and politics, for polarization between the (ostensibly) socialist NPD on one side, versus the party of "free enterprise". With the latter not infrequently putting old wine in newer bottles, from Liberal or Conservative > Liberal-Conservative > BC Social Credit Party > Liberal and now > Conservative
I was assuming the supply chain had been infiltrated. If they all got a message first (as reported) I'd be surprised if you could make a battery explode that quickly. Be a bit mad to have no fuse, too.
Though perhaps you missed THAT news flash?
That expands the range of potential methods.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/boris-johnson-cannot-live-on-wine-and-party-food-alone/
And you never knew all this because it was of no interest to the client media.
Like this one because he was unceremoniously evicted from No 10
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/04/boris-johnson-accepts-another-10000-in-accommodation-from-tory-donor
Now if I was Starmer I would have avoided this pitfall. Did he not realise that the client media would equate Mrs Starmer's wardrobe to Johnson's manifold buckshee benefits? Has he forgotten Currygate which was pitched as multiple times worse than Johnson's time at COVID party-central?
Not nice but these are hardened Hezbollah fighters who would kill an Israeli without a moment’s thought. And war is war
There is speculation Israel managed to weaponise one entire batch of pagers. Presumably with tiny explosives?
Your explanation is more diverting and scary, however
It actually concerns me that software could override the battery charging/discharging circuitry to do this. If true, that makes many devices far less safe from malicious actors. I'd love to know the full details...
We're all friends on here so I'm not going to call a spade a garden implement. The LD focus is on the 38 Conservative seats they can win (in their top 50 targets) which would probably make the party the lead opposition in the next Parliament.
That's the aim and if Reform and Labour can assist in that re-alignment so much the better. I think IF that were to happen (and let's be honest, it's a long shot), the problems for the party would be of a different order but that's for another day.
For now, therefore, it's to the voters in those key 40-50 southern and southwestern constituencies that Davey is speaking. That's politics - that's how it works.
If I used a pager I'd want to know it didn't come from the same factory as Hezbollah's.
If you put them in a hard case then the gas can cause it to fail in a more sudden manner but most times it would just result in a puffy case and eventually a hot pffft rather than an explosion.
I suspect these are 'special edition' pagers made to order...
https://youtube.com/watch?v=QIrweIqqsOc
This is the last thing Harris wants to see . The WH would be reluctant to use the Taft-Hartley Act to force workers back to work given the Unions generally support the Dems . It could put Dems in a very difficult position .
A ‘Special Limited Edition’ device, from a compromised or intercepted supply chain, would be funnier though. It means the terrorists can’t trust anyone any more.
With a software feature to go bang only when connected via a given number *and* sent a specific page?
Your fellow Trumpists certainly disagree!
Labour actually claimed that receiving leaked information was a crime.
A story went around that a Conservative MP who was a Special Constable, was going to arrest Brown at the despatch box - on the basis of the government claim and that video.
If you’re in Tehran Damascus or Beirut, right now you cannot trust ANY technology
Awks
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GA-24-General-0916_Report.pdf
Eventually, after many months, they reproduced it. Except again, all they were left with was a burnt-out computer. I can't remember the details, but they set up another test with more instrumentation.
It turned out two tracks on a PCB were slightly too close together, meaning that if the computer was on for too long (as in months), the battery would sort-circuit. A simple redesign and the problem was fixed. It must have been an early example of the problems that can be caused by rechargeable batteries. And it proved very expensive for the company.
(All from memory; an acquaintance's first job out of uni was tracking this little bugger of a fault down.)
(*) For a time I actually had that very computer, badly melted, in my possession...
My wife's a doctor so I tend to also see thing from the doctor's point of view. It's hard to imagine what it must be like to be the physician responsible in this situation. How can anyone work as a doctor under these conditions?
It wouldn't be too hard technically.
Owning the supply chain without anyone knowing would be the big hurdle though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=Y9EWO-6e8ng
I wrote one for AT&T long ago, when the world was young.
Think - hospital calls all staff in a specified group to come to the hospital.
That said; the drive I did ten days ago down the Piva Canyon and into Durmitor National Park, in Montenegro, was even more dramatic and astounding
But also much scarier because Montenegrin roads and Montenegrin drivers
If you want relaxed beauty, go for Canada
Causing the batteries to overheat seems more plausible, weirdly, but the amount of damage that’s been caused seems beyond the capability of a small lithium battery
Bloke in a van rolls up, delivers some stuff. The inventory matches before and after his visit. The fact that he swapped some boxes over goes unnoticed.
Then again - swap the shipping container?